Composites: Part A 38 (2007) 174–185

www.elsevier.com/locate/compositesa

Three-dimensional stress analysis and Weibull statistics based

strength prediction in open hole composites
a,*
E.V. Iarve , R. Kim a, D. Mollenhauer b

a
University of Dayton Research Institute, 300 College Park Avenue, Dayton, OH 45469-0168, United States
b
US Air Force Research Laboratory, AFRL/MLBC, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH 45433-7750, United States

Received 6 January 2005; received in revised form 5 January 2006; accepted 7 January 2006

Abstract

The critical failure volume (CFV) method is proposed. CFV is defined as a finite subvolume in a material with general nonuniform
stress distribution, which has the highest probability of failure, i.e. loss of load carrying capacity. The evaluation of the probability of
failure of the subvolumes is performed based on the lowest stress and thus provides an estimate of the lower bound of the probability of
local failure. An algorithm for identifying this region, based on isostress surface parameterization is proposed. It is shown that in the case
of material with strength following Weibull weak link statistics such a volume exists and its location and size are defined both by the
stress distribution and the scatter of strength. Moreover the probability of failure predicted by using the CFV method was found to
be close to that predicted by using traditional Weibull integral method and coincide with it in the case of uniform stress fields and in
the limit of zero scatter of strength. Experiments performed on homogeneous epoxy resin plaques with and without holes showed that
the predictions bound the experimentally measured open hole strength. The Weibull parameters used for prediction were obtained from
testing only unnotched specimens of different dimensions. The effect of the hole size on tensile strength of heterogeneous materials such as
quasi-isotropic carbon–epoxy composite laminates was considered next. Fiber failure was the only failure mechanism taken into account
and a strain-based failure criterion was used in the form of a two parameter Weibull distribution. The stacking sequence was selected to
minimize the effect of stress redistribution due to subcritical damage. Not unexpectedly an up to 30% underprediction of the strength of
the laminates with small (2.54 mm diameter) holes was observed by using classical Weibull integral method as well as Weibull based CFV
method. It was explained by examining the size of the CFV, which appeared to be below Rosen’s ineffective length estimate. The CFV
method was modified to account for the presence of a limit scaling size of six ineffective lengths, consistent with recent Monte-Carlo
simulations by Landis et al. [Landis CM, Beyerlin IJ, McMeeking RM. Micromechanical simulation of the failure of fiber reinforced
composites. Mech Phys Solids 2000;48:621–48] and was able to describe the experimentally observed magnitude of the hole size effect
on composite tensile strength in the examined range of 2.54–15.24 mm hole diameters.
 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords: A. Laminates; B. Stress concentrations; C. Statistical properties/methods; C. Numerical analysis; Open hole

1. Introduction [2], emerged to address the pressing needs of notched com-

Strength of composite materials with stress concentra-
tions is a central design issue often dictating the design
allowables for the entire structure. In 1970s two empirical
methods, Waddoups et al. [1] and Nuismer and Whitney
*
Corresponding author. Tel.: +1 937 2559075; fax: +1 937 2588075.
E-mail address: endel.iarve@wpafb.af.mil (E.V. Iarve).
posite design in the aerospace industry. Both approaches
are two-parameter models, where the notched strength is
predicted based on the unnotched strength and an addi-
tional parameter having a dimension of length. In Waddo-
ups et al. [1] the length parameter represents an inherent
flaw size, and in the Whitney and Nuismer model, it is the
characteristic distance from the edge of the hole. It should
be mentioned that the inherent flaw concept used in the first
model is not a physical model of inherent flaw evolution but

1359-835X/$ - see front matter  2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.compositesa.2006.01.004
 E.V. Iarve et al. / Composites: Part A 38 (2007) 174–185
a fracture mechanics-based phenomenological model where
the size of this ‘‘fictitious flaw’’ is determined based on
notched strength. Once the size of the fictitious flaw is deter-
mined for a given laminate for one hole size, the model is
capable of predicting the hole size effect, i.e. a significant
increase of net tensile strength with hole size reduction. In
the second model a characteristic distance is also deter-
mined based on a notched strength for a given hole size,
so that the stress at this distance away from the hole edge
would reach the unnotched strength at failure. Besides this
approach, called the point stress failure criterion, an aver-
age stress criterion was also proposed where the stress
was averaged over a certain (characteristic) distance from
the hole edge. Similar to the fracture mechanics approach,
the point and average stress criterion were able to predict
the hole size effect on strength of notched composites. How-
ever, none of the additional scaling parameters proved to
represent a material property across a family of composite
laminates with different layups. Nevertheless, both models
are widely used in the industry for sizing design. A key
aspect of these models is that no notched strength predic-
tion can be made based on the data determined by testing
unnotched composites only. The knowledge of notched
strength is required to calculate the value of the additional
length parameter.
A significant body of work has been devoted to strength
prediction in notched composites based on finite element
methods combined with element property degradation
rules. Lee [3] performed the first 3D finite element stress
analysis combined with the property degradation technique
for damage modeling and strength prediction in open hole
composites. The property degradation was performed by
fully degrading (multiplying by D = 106) the stiffness
component responsible for the type of damage for which
the stress component exceeded its ultimate value. Although
far preceding its time in its level of analysis fidelity, the
application of such intuitive property degradation rules
leads to strong mesh sensitivity of the strength prediction
for notched laminates and unrealistic strength predictions
if applied to unnotched laminates. The latter was addressed
by developing laminate level property degradation tech-
niques based on internal damage variables methods devel-
oped by Talreja [4] and Lee et al. [5]. Nguen [6] extended
this methodology [4] and applied it for 3D strength predic-
tion of open hole composite strength. Simplified algorithms
for notched strength prediction, where the damage vari-
ables are determined a priori and fixed, were proposed by
Tan [7]. A stiffness reduction coefficient D1 (0.007) was
used to reduce the longitudinal modulus inside the finite
element, for which the tensile fiber failure criterion was
reached. Camanho and Matthews [8] extended this
approach to 3D analysis in composite fastener joints. The
common shortcoming of these methods in the problems
dealing with stress concentration is the lack of strength
scaling mechanisms. The failure criteria significantly
(30–40%) underpredicts the fiber failure origination loads
in the elements adjacent to the hole, and the subsequent
175
strength prediction is highly mesh dependent. Shahid and
Chang [9] offered a practical solution to alleviate the severe
mesh dependency of the tensile failure prediction by mak-
ing the property degradation coefficient dependent upon
the area of the region where tensile fiber failure is detected.
Nevertheless it still did not address the underprediction of
fiber failure initiation.
Weibull’s statistical theory of strength [10] provides an
integral form allowing one to calculate the upper bound
of probability of failure in brittle materials in the presence
of stress gradients based on distribution of strength
obtained for uniformly stressed samples. In this case the
Weibull modulus, characterizing the scatter of strength,
becomes the parameter defining the notch sensitivity. Wu
[11] for the first time applied the integral form of the Wei-
bull distribution to predict the notched strength in the
quasi-isotropic composites. A tensor polynomial function
[12] was used in the Weibull integral to account for com-
plexity and interaction of the failure modes. It was shown
that the predictions are in agreement with the experimental
data of Nuismer and Whitney [2], showing the hole size
effect on the notched tensile strength. Wetherhold and
Whitney [13] applied the integral form of Weibull’s distri-
bution to predict the hole size effect in quasi-isotropic lam-
inates. A one-dimensional approximation of the Weibull
volume integral in the radial direction was introduced. As
a result of this simplification, the predicted mean values
of stress appeared significantly lower than the experimental
data, however the hole size effect trend was clearly demon-
strated. In later works Wetherhold [14] extended their work
to include interactive failure criterion (see [15]). Gurvich
and Pipes [16] developed the theoretical aspects of reliabil-
ity of composites in random stress states considering full
anisotropy of random strength properties. A generalization
of this approach was also proposed by Gurvich [17] to
account for the strength size effect and moderate nonuni-
formity of 3D distributions of random stresses. The stress
distribution in the cited works was based on lamination
theory. No estimate of the size of the critical region of most
likely failure was performed.
In the pioneering work of Kortshot and Beaumont [18],
the strength of laminates with a through-the-thickness
crack was considered. Two types of damage, namely longi-
tudinal splitting and delamination, were parametrically
introduced into the so-called 212D analysis method, where
each delaminated portion as well as the intact laminate
were considered as a separate plain stress plates. Account-
ing for these two types of damage was critical to predict the
stress relaxation in the fiber direction in the 0 ply. The
laminate failure load was then predicted by applying the
integral form of Weibull scaling. The authors also reported
that in calculation of the Weibull’s integral, most of the
contribution came from a small region near the stress con-
centration. The method of stress analysis used by the
authors, although not 3D in nature, provided accurate fiber
stresses in these regions of the delaminated section of the 0
plies.
176 E.V. Iarve et al. / Composites: Part A 38 (2007) 174–185
Recently de Morais [19] performed 3D/2D global local
finite element analysis in quasi-isotropic composite lami-
nates with open holes. His results showed significant differ-
ence between the stress concentration factor (in-plane stress
in the fiber direction at the edge of the hole) calculated by
using lamination theory and the average stress concentra-
tion factors in individual plies computed by the global–
local approach. To predict the strength of the notched
composite, a simple relationship was introduced for the
strength of the notched composite ruN as
vf ruf
ruN ¼ ; the probability of failure. Eqs. (1) and (2) relate events
K t1
where vf is the fiber volume fraction, Kt1 is the stress con-
centration in the 0 ply calculated by using the global–local
approach, and ruf is the average tensile strength of the fi-
bers on a length scale linked to the hole diameter. The
apparent consequence of this assumption results in predic-
tion of the same scatter in their distribution, whereas the
fiber strength is characterized by much larger scatter than
that of the composites for reasons explained by Rosen [20].
The focus of the present paper is on predicting the
catastrophic fiber failure in the presence of stress concen-
tration. As shown by Iarve et al. [21], even in the quasi-
isotropic composites, significant redistributions of the
stress magnitude due to splitting in the 0 ply are possible
for certain stacking sequences, in particular with the outer
0 plies. By selecting the experimental data from the open
literature, we tried to avoid such stacking sequences and
assumed that the stress field in the pristine composite
defines its strength. We shall consider the highly stressed
near-hole volume, introduce a measure of critical failure
volume and discuss its physical meaning. Two types of
stress analysis will be considered: two-dimensional analy-
sis, based on lamination theory, and three-dimensional
ply level stress analysis based on displacement spline
approximation developed by Iarve [22].
2. Determination of the critical failure volume
2.1. Definitions and traditional Weibull integral
Consider a population of test samples each having a vol-
ume V0 and loaded so that the state of stress in each sample
is uniform. Set r the single stress component or a combina-
tion, such as the tensor polynomial function in Wu [11],
which controls the strength of that sample. Weibull weak
link statistics is then based on the assumption that the
probability of failure for a sample of similar specimens of
arbitrary volume is
f ðr; V Þ ¼ 1  e
VV BðrÞ
0 . ð1Þ
Eq. (1) can also be generalized [10] for nonuniform stress
fields as
R described by a failure criteria, i.e. Tsai and Wu [12]. Such
1 BðrðxÞÞ dv
F ¼ 1  e V0 V ; ð2Þ
where dv = det(J) dx dy dz in Cartesian coordinates and J is
the Jacobian matrix. Integral (2) is derived by subdividing
the nonuniformly loaded specimen into an infinite number
of infinitesimal cells, each being loaded by stress r(x),
which can be assumed constant within the cell. The expo-
nent in Eq. (2) expresses the probability of simultaneous
survival of all mesh cells (each under a different stress),
assuming that the probability of failure of each mesh cell
is given by (1). Physically F can be interpreted as the prob-
ability of damage initiation anywhere in the volume of the
specimen and therefore interpreted as an upper bound of
on the same scale. Indeed if the specimens tested to define
the function B(r) were unnotched quasi-isotropic lami-
nates, then Eq. (2) can be used to estimate the upper bound
of the probability of failure of the same notched quasi-iso-
tropic laminate. In this case the volume integration is re-
duced to 2D in-plane integral since the thickness
direction in both cases is the same. The integrand in Eq.
(2) is generally a very nonuniform function of coordinates
and often dominated by the contribution of only a small
volume near the stress concentration. We shall discuss
the physical meaning of such a critical volume in the next
section. It is conceivable that this volume is small as com-
pared to the characteristic size of the scale at which the
problem is considered. In the example at hand, i.e. notched
strength of the quasi-isotropic laminates, the characteristic
scale size is the thickness of the laminate. Indeed, if most of
the contribution to integral (2) is coming from a small re-
gion near the hole edge with a characteristic dimension of
less than a laminate thickness, the accuracy of the predic-
tion is questionable, because of the 3D stress distribution
in this region, which is neglected in the 2D (lamination the-
ory) analysis.
In the case of the shape function B(r) in traditional
power form
 a
r
BðrÞ ¼ ; ð3Þ
b
one can rewrite Eq. (2) in the form
rw a
F ¼ 1  e ð b Þ ; ð4Þ
where
 Z 1=a
1 a
rw ¼ ðrðxÞÞ dv ð5Þ
V0 V
is called the Weibull stress [29]. A direct observation which
can be made from (5) is that in linear elasticity, Weibull
stress is proportional to loading, and thus the distribution
(4) and consequently (3) will have exactly the same shape
parameter a as (1). This was shown earlier by Wetherhold
and Whitney [13], where instead of introducing the Weibull
stress, a similar manipulation was applied to recalculate b.
In the case of multiaxial stress state failure in composites is
formal extensions of Eqs. (1) and (2) are discussed by
 E.V. Iarve et al. / Composites: Part A 38 (2007) 174–185
Wu [11]. However, the conceptual difficulty is that different
failure modes in composite materials do not exhibit similar
statistical/scaling properties as reviewed by Wisnom [30]
and thus no physical basis was established to application
of Eqs. (1) and (2) in general multiaxial loading cases.
2.2. Critical failure volume in Weibull media
In this section we shall discuss the physical meaning of
the critical or most likely local failure region in the presence
of stress concentration. As mentioned previously, integral
(2) provides the probability of failure initiation, i.e. failure
of an infinitesimal volume. We shall determine below the
probability of failure of a finite volume and its size.
The failure or loss of load carrying capacity was defined
only for uniformly loaded specimens as their apparent
strength, described by distribution function (1). Transition-
ing to a nonuniform stress state is based on the assumption
that the probability of failure P of a nonuniformly stressed
specimen with stress distribution r(x) and the probability
of failure (1) of the same specimen under uniform state
of stress ru are related
P P f ðru ; V Þ; ð6Þ
if
ru ¼ minðrðxÞÞ. ð7Þ
x2V
The estimate given by Eq. (6) is not very useful when ap-
plied to the entire volume of the specimen. On the other
hand, one can select a finite region in the nonuniformly
loaded specimen, which has a volume Vi and minimum
stress of ri, and calculate the probability of failure for this
subvolume f(ri, Vi). Suppose that we have found a subre-
gion with volume Vc and minimum stress rc, for which this
probability is the highest, i.e.
f ðrc ; V c Þ ¼ max f ðri ; V i Þ; ð8Þ
i
where index i scans all subregions of the specimen. Then
the subregion Vc will have the highest probability of local
failure, and we will call it critical failure volume (CFV).
Identification of the CFV and calculation of its failure
probability is easily performed in the case of finite maxi-
mum stress. Although two-parameter function (3) is used
in this study, other more complex distributions may be
considered as well. Such distributions, e.g. Gurvich et al.
[28], may be helpful to capture more sophisticated nonlin-
ear size effects, i.e. where relationships between logarithms
of average strength and size parameter are nonlinear
functions.
Denote the finite maximum stress magnitude as rm.
Introduce a set of isostress surfaces qirm, q0 = 1 > q1 >
q2 > q3    > 0. Consider a continuous function v(q),
0 6 q 6 1:
 
vðqÞ ¼ volðV q Þ; x 2 V q () rðxÞ P qrm . ð9Þ
177
This function is equal to the volume of the specimen with
stress higher or equal to qrm. In this case
V c ¼ vðqc Þ; rc ¼ qc rm ; ð10Þ
where
f ðqc rm ; vðqc ÞÞ ¼ max f ðqrm ; vðqÞÞ. ð11Þ
q
The probability value (11) will be denoted fc for brevity
fc ¼ f ðqc rm ; vðqc ÞÞ. ð12Þ
Without limitation of generality one can assume that the
stress distribution is continuous, which means that the
function f(qrm, v(q)) is as well. Depending upon the stress
distribution which defines the volume function v(q), this
function can have complex shape. For a typical open hole
problem and shape function B(r) in the form (3), one ob-
tains f = 0 for q = 0 and q = 1, meaning that the function
f(qrm, v(q)) will have at least one local maximum (f P 0)
for 0 < q < 1. The fact that f = 0 for q = 1 follows from
the premise that the maximum stress is attained at a point
associated with zero volume, i.e. v(1) = 0.
For an arbitrary volume Vq with an isostress qrm
boundary, one can write
Z
BðrðxÞÞ dv P Bðqrm ÞV q ;
Vq
where B(r) is a monotonic function, and qrm is the mini-
mum value of stress in the integration volume. Thus the
probability F calculated by integral (2) always satisfies
the inequality
F P fc . ð13Þ
Direct calculation shows that for homogeneous state of
stress, F and fc reduce to (1), where v(q) = V (total volume)
for any q.
As will be shown in examples, the probabilities F and fc
will be close and approach each other for a ! 1. Besides
the probability of failure, we will be interested in the aver-
age values of strength resulting from criteria (2) and (12).
As mentioned before, both criteria will result in Weibull-
type stress distributions with the same shape parameter a.
For Weibull distribution (1) with shape function (3), the
average value of strength ra and the coefficient of variation
x (standard variation divided by average value) are given
by well known equations:
 1=a  
V0 1
ra ¼ b C 1þ ; ð14aÞ
V a
sffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
Cð1 þ 2=aÞ
x¼  1; ð14bÞ
C2 ð1 þ 1=aÞ
where C-denotes the gamma function. By using Eqs. (1), (3)
and (14a), one can find the average strength value for a
known a if the probability of failure is known for just
one value of r, i.e. f is equal to f1 for r = r1. In this case
178 E.V. Iarve et al. / Composites: Part A 38 (2007) 174–185
 
1=a 1 ble problem if using standard finite element programs. A B-
ra ¼ r1 ð lnð1  f1 ÞÞ C 1þ .
a spline displacement approximation approach developed by
Eq. (15) will be used to calculate the average strength for
both the upper F and lower fc estimates of the probability
of failure, which will inversely result in lower and upper
average strength estimates. Finally, it is worth mentioning
that Eq. (14a) provides a formal way to calculate the Wei-
bull modulus a for a set of experimental data with known
coefficient of variation by solving a nonlinear equation.
3. Stress analysis and v(q) function calculation
Consider a rectangular orthotropic plate containing a
circular hole having a diameter D, as shown in Fig. 1.
The plate consists of N plies of total thickness H in the z-
direction and has a length L in the x-direction and width
A in the y-direction. The following displacement boundary
conditions were applied to the specimen on lateral sides
 ux ð0; y; zÞ ¼ ux ðL; y; zÞ ¼ e0 L=2;
uy ð0; 0; 0Þ ¼ uz ðx; y; 0Þ ¼ 0.
Traction-free boundary conditions are present on all other
surfaces. The dimensionless loading parameter e0 corre-
sponds to relative elongation of the specimen. The z-direc-
tion displacement component on the bottom surface is
constrained due to symmetric lay-up of the laminates con-
sidered, which allows one to model only half of the speci-
men. The constitutive relations of each ply are as follows:
rij ¼ C pijkl ðekl  apkl DT Þ; i ¼ 1; . . . ; N ;
where C pijkl
and apkl
are elastic moduli and thermal expan-
sion coefficients of the pth orthotropic ply, and DT is the
temperature change. The average applied traction was then
calculated as
Z determined, a post-processing step is performed when each
r0 ¼ rxx ð0; y; zÞ dy dz. ð17Þ
y;z
A cylindrical coordinate system is defined originating from
the center of the hole:
x ¼ r cos h þ xc ; y ¼ r sin h þ y c ; z ¼ z;
where xc, yc are the coordinates of the center of the hole.
Three-dimensional ply level stress analysis in realistic
composite laminates containing holes represents a formida-
Fig. 1. Schematics of the open hole tension specimen.
ð15Þ
Iarve [22] was shown to provide highly accurate stress solu-
tions in the immediate vicinities of the ply interface and
hole edge intersections, where there is singular stress
behavior.
Three-dimensional approximation is built by using the
tensor product of one-dimensional approximations. Con-
sider an elementary cube [0, 1]3 in local x1, x2, x3 coordinate
system, then the 3D displacement approximation can be
written as
XXX
uðx1 x2 x3 Þ ¼ X i ðx1 ÞY j ðx2 ÞZ k ðx3 ÞUijk ; ð19Þ
i j k
where u is the displacement vector and Uijk are vectors of
displacement approximation coefficients not necessarily
associated with nodal displacements, and indexes i, j and
k in Eq. (19) change from 1 to the total number of approx-
imation functions in each direction. Depending upon the
application and geometry, different orders of splines (from
ð16Þ 1 to 8) can be used in each direction. Besides changing the
order of splines, one can also change their defect (maxi-
mum number of discontinuous derivatives) in the node,
thus being able to apply standard linear or a higher order
p-type finite element approximation if desired. Curvilinear
coordinate transformation x = x(x1x2x3), xT = (x, y, z)
with Jacobian matrix J(x1x2x3) is used to map the unit vol-
ume into the global x, y, z, coordinate system. The Gauss-
ian integration procedure is used to calculate the
components of the stiffness matrix. For the details of vari-
ational formulation and detailed verification of stress pre-
diction accuracy, the reader is referred to Iarve [22]. For
purposes of the present study, we shall describe the proce-
dure of calculating the overstressed volume function v(q).
After the solution is completed and all vectors Uijk are
integration point of the structure is examined twice. First
the stress and strain components are computed, and the
maximum value rm of the component of interest is found
by searching through all integration points. A large num-
ð18Þ ber M (in our analysis M = 101 and 201) is then prescribed,
and a sequence
qi ¼ 1  i=M; i ¼ 0; . . . ; M
defined. The overstressed volume function v(q) is then cal-
culated in M points as
XXX g
vðqi Þ ¼ wg1 wg2 wg3 det J ðxg11 ; xg22 ; x33 Þgðr  qi rm Þ
g1 g2 g3
ð20Þ
by using the Heaviside step function

1; r > 0;
gðrÞ ¼ ð21Þ
0; r 6 0.
In Eq. (20) indexes gi, i = 1, 2, 3 denote Gauss integration
points in x1, x2 and x3 directions, respectively, and wgi are
respective Gaussian weights. Step function (21) cuts off the
 E.V. Iarve et al. / Composites: Part A 38 (2007) 174–185 179

contribution from all integration points where the stress is Function f(qrm, v(q)) in Eq. (11) for the specimen at
lower than the threshold qirm. For low values of the thresh- hand is shown in Fig. 3 for two different values of Weibull
old value, v(q) will include almost all integration points in modulus a. For a = 5 (hypothetic material with very large
(20) and become close to the entire volume. The probability 23% coefficient of strength variation) qc = 0.261, which
fc is then calculated according to Eqs. (11) and (12) by corresponds to the uniformly loaded large area away from
scanning through all f(qi) values. The integral in Eq. (2) the hole, meaning that most failures of the open hole spec-
can be calculated directly by using a formula similar to imen will not happen throughout the hole at all. The CFV
(20), where the step function is replaced by corresponding to this case is very large, and according to
g
Bðrðxg11 ; xg22 ; x33 ÞÞ. Fig. 2 (solid curve) is comparable to the volume of the spec-
imen. For a less variable material with a = 9
4. Homogeneous plate with a hole (c.v.  13.2%), we find qc = 0.838, which corresponds to
the near hole area. In this case Vc is on the order of less
4.1. Variation of CFV location and size and comparison with than 0.001V0, as can be seen in Fig. 2.
Weibull integral method The average values of notched strength predicted by
Weibull integral criterion (2) and CFV criterion (11) and
The size and location of the CFV as functions of scatter (12) are compared in Fig. 4 as functions of Weibull modu-
of strength will be investigated in homogeneous isotropic lus a. In both cases the average strength was calculated by
plates with an open hole. The specific size and elastic mod- using Eq. (15) and normalized to average strength of the
ulus of the material are not of essence for this study, unnotched specimens. The error bars show +/ one stan-
although the properties were those of neat epoxy resin pla- dard deviation bounds. The percentage values correspond-
ques considered in the next section. ing to selected values of Weibull modulus a are the
The overstressed volume function v(q) normalized to respective values of the coefficient of variation. As
specimen volume for a typical open hole coupon under uni- expected, the Weibull integral (2) and the CFV criterion
axial loading with boundary conditions (18) is shown in converge to each other with increasing a (decreasing the
Fig. 2. Two scales are used: the solid line depicts the func- c.v.). Only for the smallest a the predicted means are just
tion for the entire specimen (left scale), and the dashed line outside the one standard variation bounds from each other.
shows the same function on the smaller scale (right-hand The deterministic 1/KT estimate is approximately 20%
side scale), which corresponds to higher stress regions near more conservative than the statistics-based prediction even
the hole. Step-like behavior in the proximity of q = 0.261 for a = 50 (c.v. = 2.5%).
means that a significant volume of the specimen is experi-
encing a homogeneous state of stress. The fact that q is 4.2. Experimental data
lower than 1/3 reflects the finite geometry of the plate,
resulting in stress concentration equal to KT = 3.84 for Prior to considering the strength of laminated compos-
the present geometry. ites, a set of experiments on neat epoxy plaques cured
according to manufacturer’s recommendations was con-
ducted. All specimens were cut out of 3.0 mm-thick panels.
Two sets of 20 unnotched specimens having dimensions of
1 0.01
L = 5.08 cm long · W = 1.27 cm wide and L/2 · W/2 were
function v(q) for near hole region
function v(q) for entire specimen

0.8 0.008 0.6

f(qσm,v(q)), α=9 (c.v.=13.2%)
f(qσm,v(q)), α=5 (c.v.=23%)
0.5
0.6 v(q)/V0 0.006 q=0.261
Probability of failure

0.4

0.4 0.004 0.3

0.2
0.2 v(q)/V0 0.002
0.1
q=0.261

0 0 0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
q q

Fig. 2. Function v(q) for an isotropic plate with a hole, overall shape Fig. 3. Probability of finite volume failure function f(qm, v(q)) for two
shown with solid line and the near-hole shown with dashed line. values of Weibull modulus.
180
1 1
Mean Notched strength and variation
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
20% 10%
0 1
0 10
Fig. 4. Average failure load and standard deviation estimated by using
Weibull integral (2)—F and estimated by using CWV criterion (11), (12)—
fc.
tested in tension in the direction of length. In addition a set
of 20 notched specimens with in-plane dimensions L · W,
containing a D = 5.08 mm center hole were also tested.
In all cases the length given is equal to the gage section
length, whereas the specimens contained additional
2.54 cm tabs on each end. The elastic stiffness properties
were E = 3.79 GPa and m = 0.39. The average tensile
strength of the control volume V0 = 1.93 cm3 (L · W) spec-
imens was XT = 80 MPa with a coefficient of variation
(c.v.) of 13.4% (corresponds to a = 9). The second set of
unnotched specimens of smaller dimension and volume
V1 = V0/4 had an average strength of xT = 91 MPa and
c.v. of 12% (corresponds to a = 10). Three panels were pro-
duced and showed similar coefficient of strength variation
and average strength. A particular difficulty in definition
of the unnotched strength distribution is defining the Wei-
bull shape parameter, which reflects the intrinsic variation
of strength rather than that caused by experimentation. In
present work we are following the methodology described
by Bazant [27] and determine a from the average strength
values of the two sets of specimens of different volumes as
a ¼ lnðX T =xT Þ= lnðV 1 =V 0 Þ.
It results in a = 10.7, which corresponds to c.v. of 11.3%
and is quite close to the c.v. of the experimental values
for either set of unnotched data. The strength of the open
hole specimens was predicted by using the unnotched
strength distribution with b = 84.1 MPa, a = 10.7 and
V0 = 1.93 cm3, where the parameter b was calculated from
Eq. (14a) based on the average strength value of XT. The
average open hole strength predicted by using Weibull inte-
gral method and CFV was rave,F = 44.7 MPa and rave,fc =
52.4 MPa, respectively, whereas the average value of exper-
imental data is rave = 46.9 MPa.
The experimental data and predictions are shown in
Fig. 5. The solid squares and triangles correspond to exper-
imentally measured strength of unnotched specimens of
E.V. Iarve et al. / Composites: Part A 38 (2007) 174–185
F, β β=84.1MPa
F
XT/KT
0
unnotched strength, V
fc
0.8
F
notched strength
1/KT
Probability of Failure
1
unnotched strength, V
0.6
fc, βfc
0.4
5% 2.5%
0.2
β
20 30 40 50 60
Weibull modulus - α
0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4
Normalized Strength
Fig. 5. Experimental data and predictions of tensile strength in neat resin
plaques with and without open hole. Test points: j—control volume
unnotched specimens, m—small volume unnotched specimens, s—open
hole specimens. All solid curves are Weibull distributions with a = 10.7.
Strength is normalized by that of the unnotched specimens XT.
control volume and small volume specimens respectively.
The open circles show experimentally measured strength
of the specimens with open holes. The continuous curves
in Fig. 5 are Weibull distributions with the same shape
parameter a = 10.7. The one closely fitting the control vol-
ume unnotched data has b = 84.1 MPa, and the one closely
fitting small volume unnotched data has b1 = bXT/xT. The
predicted open hole specimen strength distributions
(bF = 47.5 MPa, bfc = 53.7 MPa) appear to bound the
experimental data.
A note must be taken that the results of strength predic-
tion are highly sensitive to values of Weibull modulus a. An
accurate determination of the Weibull modulus requires a
significant number of unnotched specimens to be tested,
avoiding strength values, which result from grip failures.
In principle, however, the question of predicting notched
strength based on testing exclusively unnotched samples
is answered. Overall, the Weibull statistics-based strength
prediction provides a physically sound indisputable
improvement upon the stress concentration factor-based
value of XT/KT, which is also shown in Fig. 5.
5. Notched strength prediction in quasi-isotropic laminates
The present section is devoted to evaluation of probabil-
ity of failure in quasi-isotropic laminates with open holes.
Experimental data reported by Whitney and Kim [26] were
used in the present study. The T300/934 composite and two
stacking sequences, [±45/0/90]s and [90/0/±45]s, were con-
sidered. Unnotched strength, open hole strength with three
different hole sizes of D = d, D = 3d and D = 6d, where
d = 2.54 mm (0.100 , 0.300 and 0.600 ), and strength with three
sizes of through-the-thickness cracks were evaluated on a
 E.V. Iarve et al. / Composites: Part A 38 (2007) 174–185 181

Table 1 iation of strength obtained experimentally for unnotched

Material stiffness properties used in the analysis
[0] [90/0/45/45]s
EL (GPa) 146.7 54.9
ET (GPa) 11
Ez (GPa) 11
vLT 0.3 0.3
vLz 0.3
vzT 0.33
GLT (GPa) 4.82 20.7
GLz (GPa) 4.82
GzT (GPa) 4.82
The data reported in Ref. [26] is typed in bold, and the data added for 3D
analysis is typed in regular font.
total of 296 tests. Both stacking sequences showed very
similar notched strength with 10% difference in the unnot-
ched strength due to reportedly extensive delamination in
final stages of failure of the unnotched [±45/0/90]s lami-
nates. The stress–strain curves reported for the unnotched
[90/0/±45]s laminate were linear until failure, and that is
why this stacking sequence was chosen for the present anal-
ysis. The ply and laminate stiffness properties used for ply
level analysis and for lamination level analysis are shown in
Table 1. The data reported in Ref. [26] are shown in a bold
font, and the additional data added by the authors for stiff-
ness properties in the out-of-plane z-direction are shown in
a normal font. The geometry of the specimens had a gage
length of L = 22.86 cm in the x-direction and a width of
W = w, W = 1.5w and W = 2w in the y-direction, where
w = 2.54 cm for hole sizes of d, 3d and 6d, respectively.
All notched strength data in the cited report were reported
after the finite width correction factor was applied to exper-
imental data. For the purposes of present comparison the
actual experimental values were restored by using the cor-
rection factors from Ref. [2] and dividing the reported cor-
rected values of strength by 1.01, 1.05 and 1.12 for the hole
diameter to width ratios of D/W = 0.1, 0.2 and 0.3,
respectively.
In order to perform the strength predictions one needs
to define the Weibull parameters for strength in the fiber
direction. The experimental data from Whitney and Kim
[26] for unnotched and notched strength relevant to present
analysis is summarized in Table 2. As in the previous sec-
tion the difficulty is in obtaining the shape parameter of
the strength distribution, which characterizes the intrinsic
strength variation. As seen in Table 2 the coefficient of var-
and notched specimens with different hole sizes varies sig-
nificantly. There is no monotonic trend, which can be
established for the coefficient of variation as a function of
hole size, except that it is lower than for unnotched speci-
mens. Based on the range given in Table 2, the analysis
was carried out for the following values of a = 14.7, 18,
24 and 30.
The failure prediction was performed by using maxi-
mum fiber direction strain. Eq. (1) was replaced with
 a
V e
f ðV ; eÞ ¼ 1  e V 0 be . ð22Þ
Weibull parameter be was obtained as be = b/Equasi, where
Equasi is the laminate tensile modulus given in Table 1. The
value of b was calculated for each value of a by using Eq.
(14a) for ra = 499.2 MPa. The dimensions of the unnot-
ched specimens were assumed to be the same as in Ref.
[2] and were L = 10.125 cm, W = 1.905 cm.
Three-dimensional distribution of the stress–strain fields
at the hole edge has been extensively studied analytically
[21–23] and experimentally Mollenhauer et al. [24]. Exper-
imental investigation of the strain distribution at the hole
edge was performed by means of Moiré interferometry
developed by Mollenhauer and Reifsnider [25]. Ply level
(3D) stress analysis based on the displacement spline
approximation approach Iarve [22] described above was
performed for the [90/0/ ± 45]s laminates with all three
hole sizes. Fig. 6 illustrates the nonuniformity of the fiber
strain distribution at the hole edge at the h = 90 location,
where the angle h was defined by Eq. (18) and shown in
Fig. 6. At this location the fiber direction strain coincides
with the circumferential strain ehh. The strain value is nor-
malized to the specimen elongation e0 defined in Eq. (16).
A significant strain increase in the 0 plies for both
top surface 1
[90/0/45/-45]s
[45/-45/0/90]s
0.75
2-D solution
0 - ply
z/H
0.5
0 - ply

0.25

Table 2
Experimental data from Ref. [26] on unnotched and uncorrected notched
strength for [90/0/45/45]s laminate
midsurface 0
ravg (MPa) c.v. (%) a 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
Unnotched 500.2 7.8 14.7 Normalized circumferential strain
0.100 Hole 315.8 5.6 20.1
Fig. 6. Through the thickness distribution of the circumferential strain
0.300 Hole 259.2 4.2 27.2
component at open hole edge of quasi-isotropic laminates with D = d hole
0.600 Hole 208.0 6.2 18.1
at h = 90 circumferential location.
182 E.V. Iarve et al. / Composites: Part A 38 (2007) 174–185

quasi-isotropic stacking sequences over the lamination the-
ory-based 2D constant value of 3.02 can be seen. At the
same time the strain distributions in the 0 plies of the
two laminates are the same, which is in agreement with
the practically equal notched strength values reported for
the two laminates in Ref. [26].
The comparison of the average strength values predicted
by using ply level (3D) analysis and lamination theory
based (2D) analysis with the experimentally obtained aver-
age values is shown in Fig. 7. All strength values are nor-
malized by average unnotched strength value of
ra = 499.2 MPa. Thick solid lines connect the experimental
data and the thin lines connect the predicted values. The
predictions based on Weibull integral (2) are marked with
F on the left and contain triangle symbol pointing up,
whereas the CFV prediction contains triangle symbol
pointing down. Four pairs of curves of predicted values
0.8
fc
0.7
F ber corresponds to 2D analysis and the second (after for-
2D stress analysis
fc
Normalized Strength
corresponding to different values of a are shown. The
trends which can be seen on the two graphics in Fig. 7a
and b show that for larger hole sizes the 3D and 2D anal-
ysis based strength predictions are very close especially for
low values of a. The second trend, namely that the Weibull
integral and CFV based predictions converge with increas-
ing a can also be seen. However, the more important trend,
which is unambiguously observed, is that all predictions
significantly underestimate the hole size effect on strength.
This observation can be explained by examining the size
of the CFV as a function of hole diameter and a. We shall
introduce a linear measure lc of the CFV by assuming it to
have a square in-plane cross-section and span through the
thickness of the ply so that
pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
lc ¼ V c =h=2. ð23Þ
Estimation of the linear dimension of the CFV is important
in order to compare it with micromechanical scale param-
eters such as fiber diameter and ineffective length intro-
duced by Rosen [20]. The size lc, defined by Eq. (23) for
different holes sizes is shown in Table 3, where the fist num-
ward slash) to 3D analysis. The values of lc decrease
from around 0.8 mm to as small as 0.01 mm for small holes

F
0.6
and large values of a. The latter value is significantly below
fc α=14.7 the estimate of so called ineffective length d [20], where
F
fc α=24 α=18 sffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffirffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
0.5 F 1 Ef
α=30 d ¼ 1:14d f pffiffiffiffi  1 . ð24Þ
mf Gm

0.4
For the T300/934 material we estimate the value of
d = 0.0538 mm for fiber modulus Ef = 206.8 GPa (T300),
0.3 matrix shear modulus Gm = 1.31 GPa (934 Epoxy), fiber
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 volume fraction vf = 0.6 and fiber diameter of df = 7 lm.
(a) Normalized Hole diameter D/d The strength of the unidirectional composite cannot be
0.8 scaled by using Eq. (22) down to dimensions of less than
2d, because for such ultra short composites the process of
fiber macrocrack formation will no longer be self similar
0.7 3D stress analysis to larger composites. However, even 2d appears to be be-
fc
low the limit of applicability of Eq. (22) . A Monte-Carlo
Normalized Strength

simulation and shear lag stress analysis based study of limit

F
0.6 sizes for Weibull scaling of unidirectional composite
fc α=14.7 strength was recently performed by Landis et al. [31]. It
F α=18 was shown that for composites with fiber strength scatter
0.5 corresponding to Weibull modulus of a = 10 (carbon fibers
fc 5–6) and length l0 = 3d significantly over predict the
α=24
F strength of longer composites with l0 = 6d and l0 = 9d,
0.4 fc
F α=30 when Weibull scaled. The intermediate value of l0 = 6d
(46df) was considered as the minimum scalable length.
It is also worth mentioning that Landis et al. [31] investi-
0.3
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 gated the size of the minimum Weibull scalable cross-sec-
(b) Hole diameter D/d tion, which was on the order of 30 · 30 fibers. Thus these
Fig. 7. Weibull integral and CFV based predictions of average strength of
are the particular dimensions in the fiber direction and in
quasi-isotropic laminates for four values of a. Solid curves correspond to the direction perpendicular to fibers which matter rather
a = 18 and 30, whereas dashed lines to a = 14.7 and 24. than the volume. The CFV method allows in principle to

Table 3
Linear size in mm of CFV for notched laminates (2D/3D)
00
0.1 Hole
0.300 Hole
0.600 Hole
obtain its individual dimensions in different directions.
However, in the present study we are using a simple esti-
mate given by Eq. (23) and comparing it to the largest of
the scalable volume dimensions from Landis et al. [31].
The CFV method can be readily modified to account
for additional physical considerations, such as presence
of a limit scaling volume and define the probability of fail-
ure as
( hole sizes and values of a are shown in Fig. 9a–c. The
f c ; lc P l0 ;
f ðl0 Þ ¼ pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi ð25Þ
f ðvðq0 Þ; q0 Þ; l0 ¼ vðq0 Þ=h=2; lc < l0 .
So that when CFV has a linear dimension larger then l0
then the probability of failure coincides with Eq. (11) and
else with that of the volume corresponding to dimension
l0. In the present study we will consider the same values
of l0 = 3d, 6d, and 9d as in Landis et al. [31].
The evaluation of f(l0) is illustrated in Fig. 8 showing the
probability of local failure f(v(q),pq)) and the linear size of
ffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
the corresponding volume l ¼ vðqÞ=h=2 as functions of
q. The hole diameter is 7.62 mm and a = 24. The original
CFV is defined on the bell-shaped f(v(q), q) curve by its
maximum and corresponds to qc = 0.8775, which yields
fc = 0.34 and the average failure stress of 216.5p MPa.
ffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
size of the CFV can be obtained from the l ¼ vðqÞ=h=2
curve at q = qc and is equal to lc = 0.137 mm, which is
apparently smaller then l0 = 6d (6d = 0.323 mm). Accord-
ing to Ref. [31] the strength of such a small volume cannot
be estimated based on Weibull scaling and is in fact higher.
The best one can do without precise knowledge of strength
Linear Representation of Volume (mm)
1.6
f(v(q),q)
1.2
l=(v(q)/h/2)^0.5
0.8
0.4 l0=0.323mm
lc=0.137mm
0 0
0 0.2 0.4
q-argument
Fig. 8. Modification of the CFV to take into account micromechanics
based limit of Weibull scaling.
E.V. Iarve et al. / Composites: Part A 38 (2007) 174–185 183
a = 14.7 a = 18 a = 24 a = 30
0.140/0.0813 0.106/0.056 0.0933/0.0424 0.0718/0.0105
0.422/0.263 0.353/0.183 0.289/0.137 0.220/0.0320
0.848/0.707 0.707/0.462 0.572/0.299 0.420/0.079
values of such ultra small volumes is to evaluate the prob-
ability of failure of a larger volume, which has a linear
dimension of l0 = 6d (6d = 0.323 mm). Now we follow
the dashed horizontal line from left to right and find a
value of q = 0.78, which corresponds to l0 = 6d and then
the associated probability of failure f(l0) = 0.175, which
yields the average failure strength value of 241.3 MPa.
Revised predictions by using the criterion (25) for all
results obtained by using 2D analysis (up pointing trian-
gles, dashed line) and 3D ply level analysis (down pointing
triangles, solid lines) are shown for l0 = 3d, 6d, and 9d
respectively. In all cases the Weibull modulus values of
a = 14.7, 18, 24 and 30 were examined. It is apparent that
the introduction of l0 = 6d as a limiting size of Weibull
scaling yields results that capture the magnitude of experi-
mentally observed strength increase with the hole size
reduction. The values of a in the mid 20s range, are also
consistent with the 23–29 values cited for similar materials
by Wisnom [30]. It is not surprising that criterion (25)
yields practically similar results for stress analysis per-
formed by using lamination theory as well as ply level anal-
ysis, since 6d  3h. It is also important to point out that no
The
subcritical damage such as matrix cracking and delamina-
tions were taken into account. In most laminates, however,
modeling of such damage is critical and can only be accom-
plished by using 3D ply level stress analysis.
It is worth mentioning that similar correction of the pre-
dictions based on Weibull integral (2) by taking into
account micromechanical process zone is not equally
straight forward and leads to considerations such as non-
local Weibull theory by Bazant [27], which was proposed
0.5
in the 1990s.
The appearance of an additional parameter, such as the
0.4 length scale l0 = 6d in the present analysis is certainly dis-
appointing from the stand point that its direct measure-
Probability of Failure
fc
0.3 Failure ment is problematic. It is however, interesting to compare
Probability its magnitude l0 = 0.323 mm with the size of the character-
f(lo)
Difference istic distance d0 = 1.016 mm in the point stress failure crite-
0.2
rion applied by Whitney and Kim [26] to the hole size effect
analysis of the same problem. The latter dimension is not
0.1 unexpectedly higher because it combines the effects of Wei-
bull scaling of unidirectional composite strength as well as
microscopic fiber failure process zone effect. The proposed
0.6 0.8 1 method in some way separates the ply level effects and the
fiber level effects, which are responsible for collective or
nonlocal type of failure, requiring certain finite volume to
be overstressed in order to occur.
184 E.V. Iarve et al. / Composites: Part A 38 (2007) 174–185

0.8 6. Conclusions
α=14.7
l0 =3δ
The critical failure volume method is proposed. The CFV
0.7 was defined as a subvolume, which has the highest probabil-
α=18
ity of local failure. The failure in this case is defined as loss
Normalized Strength

of load carrying capacity of this subvolume, rather than a

0.6 point failure event. An algorithm for identifying this region,
α=24
based on isostress surface parameterization was proposed.
α=30
It was shown that the probability of the subvolume failure
0.5
at a given load is always lower then the probability of failure
predicted by Weibull integral criterion for the same subvo-
lume. The two coincide for uniform stress fields and con-
0.4
verge to each other when the scatter of strength reduces.
Notched strength of homogeneous neat epoxy resin pla-
ques was studied experimentally and predicted based on
0.3
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Weibull integral and CFV methods. The open hole strength
(a) Normalized hole diameter D/d was predicted exclusively based on strength data measured
on unnotched specimens. The average strength of open hole
0.9
specimens predicted by the two methods differed by approx-
α=14.7
imately 11% and provided a good agreement with average
0.8 strength measured experimentally. Experimental data was
α=18 tightly bounded by two predictions, with the tail of distribu-
l0=6δ
tion being closer to CFV method and the high probability
Normalized Strength

0.7
of failure data to that predicted by Weibull integral. Overall
α=24
in the case of homogeneous material the traditional Weibull
0.6 α=30 integral method performed very satisfactory and the CFV
provided a tight lower bound on the failure probability.
0.5 The effect of the open hole size on strength of quasi-iso-
tropic graphite-epoxy laminates was considered. The Wei-
bull integral method and classical Weibull strength based
0.4
CFV showed that both methods are not capable of describ-
ing the experimentally observed magnitude of the hole size
0.3 effect on strength. However, the analysis based on CFV
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
(b) identified the size of the most likely failure region for small
Normalized hole diameter D/d
hole sizes to be smaller then the estimated lower limit of
1 length scale at which the unidirectional composite strength
α=14.7 can be scaled. The stress contour based framework of CFV
0.9 method was modified to include such a limit scaling volume
α=18 l0 =9δ
and the revised results showed good correlation with exper-
0.8 imental data. Similar modifications of the Weibull integral
Normalized Strength

α=24 method are not equally straight forward and lead to non-
0.7 α=30 local formulations, see Bazant [27].

0.6 Acknowledgments

0.5 This work was sponsored by the Air Force Research

Laboratory, under contract number F33615-00-D-5006.
0.4 The authors are grateful to Prof. O. Ochoa for considerable
revision of the manuscript and Dr. N. Pagano and Dr. M.
0.3
Gurvich for comments and discussion.
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
(c) Normalized hole diameter D/d
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