RESEARCH
SPIVA
CONTRIBUTORS
Andrew Innes
Associate Director
Global Research & Design
andrew.innes@spglobal.com
Zack Bezuidenhoudt, CIPM
Head of Client Coverage
South Africa and
Sub-Saharan Africa
zack.bezuidenhoudt@spglobal.com
Experience the Active vs. Passive Debate on a Global Scale on INDEXOLOGY®.
SPIVA® South Africa Scorecard
SUMMARY
S&P Dow Jones Indices has been the de facto scorekeeper of the ongoing
active versus passive debate since the first publication of the S&P Indices
Versus Active (SPIVA) U.S. Scorecard in 2002. The SPIVA South Africa
Scorecard measures the performance of actively managed, South African
equity and fixed income funds denominated in South African rands (ZAR)
against their respective benchmark indices over one-, three-, and five-year
investment horizons.
MID-YEAR 2018 HIGHLIGHTS
The stock market rally in South Africa in 2017, buoyed by loosening
monetary policy and new leadership expectations, failed to extend into
2018. The S&P South Africa Domestic Shareholder Weighted (DSW)
Capped Index was up 7.6% year-over-year in June 2018, yet it was down
6.0% from the start of the year.
When comparing South African active equity fund manager
performance to the capped benchmark over the one-year period, 51%
failed to outperform. However, the asset-weighted performance of the
category outperformed the same benchmark by 70 bps. This suggests
larger funds may have benefited from their increased exposure to the large-
cap stocks that contributed most to market returns. Interestingly, 77% of
active funds from the same category failed to outperform over the
five-year period.
The strengthening of the South African rand in December 2017 in
anticipation of Ramaphosa replacing Zuma as leader of the ruling African
National Congress was short-lived. After the euphoria, the reality of the
task ahead set in, and the U.S.-China trade war further exacerbated the
local challenges facing the president. The GDP was revised to fall 2.6% on
an annualized basis in the first quarter—the sharpest contraction in almost
a decade. The subsequent 0.7% drop in the second quarter put the country
in a technical recession.
The South African rand weakened through Q2 2018 alongside other
emerging market currencies. From the perspective of a local investor, the
depreciation contributed to higher returns offered across international
markets. The S&P Global 1200 increased 16.7% in local currency terms
between June 2017 and June 2018.
SPIVA South Africa Scorecard Mid-Year 2018

South African active funds investing in global equities underperformed by 3% on an asset-

weighted basis, and 82% of funds were unable to beat the S&P Global 1200 within the same one-
year period.

In an attempt to tackle the country’s rising debt, value-added tax (VAT) was increased 1% in South
Africa earlier in 2018. Meanwhile, S&P Global Ratings affirmed South Africa’s sub-investment grade
credit rating and kept its outlook stable with ‘BB’ and ‘BB+’ on its foreign and local currency debt,
respectively. However, it was noted that the ratings could be lowered if the rule of law, property rights,
or enforcement of contracts were to weaken. Hence, the controversial, populist policy of land
expropriation without compensation has many concerned it will erode trust and dampen foreign
investment. The S&P South Africa Composite Property Index fell sharply at the start of the year; the
index was down 18.7% (in South African rands) over the first half of 2018.

The SPIVA South Africa Scorecard also covers the performance of actively managed fixed income
funds that manage short-term bonds or diversified and aggregate bonds. In the one-year period
ending in June 2018, short-term fixed income funds predominately outperformed the South
Africa Short Term Fixed Interest (STeFI) Composite, with just 13% underperforming. These
results are fairly typical for the group, since the benchmark does not reflect the opportunities available
to fixed income managers through the corporate bond markets. Over the same 12-month period,
70% of active funds in the Diversified/Aggregate Bond category were unable to beat the S&P
South Africa Sovereign Bond 1+ Year Index, which rose 10.1% (in local currency terms).

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SPIVA South Africa Scorecard Mid-Year 2018

A UNIQUE SCORECARD FOR THE ACTIVE VERSUS PASSIVE DEBATE

Since its first publication 16 years ago, the SPIVA Scorecard has served as the de facto scorekeeper of
the active versus passive debate. For more than a decade, we have heard passionate arguments from
believers in both camps when headline numbers have deviated from their beliefs.

Over the years, we have built on more than a decade of experience publishing the report by expanding
coverage into Canada, India, Japan, Australia, Latin America, and South Africa. While the report will
not end the debate on active versus passive investing, we hope to make a meaningful contribution by
examining market segments in which one strategy might work better than the other.

Beyond the SPIVA Scorecard’s widely cited headline numbers is a rich data set that addresses issues
related to measurement techniques, universe composition, and fund survivorship that are less
frequently discussed but are often more fascinating. These data sets are rooted in the fundamental
principles of the SPIVA Scorecard that regular readers will be familiar with, including the following.

 Survivorship Bias Correction: Many funds might be liquidated or merged during a period of
study. However, for someone making an investment decision at the beginning of the period,
these funds are part of the opportunity set. Unlike other commonly available comparison reports,
SPIVA Scorecards account for the entire opportunity set—not just the survivors—thereby
eliminating survivorship bias.

 Asset-Weighted Returns: Average returns for a fund group are often calculated using only
equal weighting, which means the returns of a ZAR 100 billion fund affect the average in the
same manner as the returns of a ZAR 100 million fund. An accurate representation of how
market participants fared in a particular period can be ascertained by calculating weighted
average returns in which each fund’s return is weighted by net assets. SPIVA Scorecards show
both equal- and asset-weighted averages.

 Data Cleaning: SPIVA Scorecards avoid double counting multiple share classes in all count-
based calculations by using only the share class with greater assets. Index, leveraged, and
inverse funds, along with other index-linked products, are excluded because this is meant to be a
scorecard for active managers.

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SPIVA South Africa Scorecard Mid-Year 2018

REPORTS

Report 1: Percentage of South African Funds Outperformed by Benchmarks

FUND CATEGORY COMPARISON INDEX ONE-YEAR (%) THREE-YEAR (%) FIVE-YEAR (%)
S&P South Africa DSW Capped Index 51.49 60.59 76.60
South African Equity
S&P South Africa DSW Index 84.16 86.47 88.65
Global Equity S&P Global 1200 82.26 87.18 96.55
Short-Term Bond STeFI Composite 12.77 15.22 22.22
S&P South Africa Sovereign Bond 1+
Diversified/Aggregate Bond 70.00 40.70 50.75
Year Index
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Morningstar. Data for periods ending June 30, 2018. Outperformance is based on equal-weighted fund
counts. Index performance is based on total return in ZAR. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Table is provided for
illustrative purposes.

Report 2: Survivorship of South African Funds

FUND CATEGORY NO. OF FUNDS AT START SURVIVORSHIP (%)
ONE-YEAR
South African Equity 203 89.16
Global Equity 62 95.16
Short-Term Bond 49 95.92
Diversified/Aggregate Bond 100 92.00
THREE-YEAR
South African Equity 172 85.47
Global Equity 40 92.50
Short-Term Bond 46 89.13
Diversified/Aggregate Bond 86 87.21
FIVE-YEAR
South African Equity 144 76.39

Global Equity 31 87.10

Short-Term Bond 45 86.67

Diversified/Aggregate Bond 69 82.61

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Morningstar. Data for periods ending June 30, 2018. Survivorship shown for funds in ZAR. Past
performance is no guarantee of future results. Table is provided for illustrative purposes.

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SPIVA South Africa Scorecard Mid-Year 2018

Report 3: Average South African Fund Performance (Equal Weighted)

CATEGORY ONE-YEAR (%) THREE-YEAR (ANNUALIZED %) FIVE-YEAR (ANNUALIZED %)
S&P South Africa DSW Capped Index 7.61 3.20 9.76
S&P South Africa DSW Index 12.89 5.60 11.45
South African Equity 7.17 2.72 8.27

S&P Global 1200 16.73 13.79 17.90

Global Equity 13.12 9.70 13.28

STeFI Composite 7.33 7.27 6.70

Short-Term Bond 8.04 7.97 7.19

S&P South Africa Sovereign Bond 1+ Year 10.06 7.80 7.34

Diversified/Aggregate Bond 8.54 7.97 7.37
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Morningstar. Data for periods ending June 30, 2018. Index performance based on total return in ZAR.
Funds are equal weighted but indices are not. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Table is provided for illustrative purposes.

Report 4: Average South African Fund Performance (Asset Weighted)

CATEGORY ONE-YEAR (%) THREE-YEAR (ANNUALIZED %) FIVE-YEAR (ANNUALIZED %)
S&P South Africa DSW Capped Index 7.61 3.20 9.76
S&P South Africa DSW Index 12.89 5.60 11.45
South African Equity 8.31 4.10 9.36

S&P Global 1200 16.73 13.79 17.90

Global Equity 13.73 12.03 15.53

STeFI Composite 7.33 7.27 6.70

Short-Term Bond 8.28 8.30 7.53

S&P South Africa Sovereign Bond 1+ Year 10.06 7.80 7.34

Diversified/Aggregate Bond 9.53 8.65 7.86
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Morningstar. Data for periods ending June 30, 2018. Index performance based on total returns in ZAR.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Table is provided for illustrative purposes.

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SPIVA South Africa Scorecard Mid-Year 2018

Report 5: Quartile Breakpoints of South African Funds

THIRD QUARTILE SECOND QUARTILE FIRST QUARTILE
FUND CATEGORY
(ANNUALIZED %) (ANNUALIZED %) (ANNUALIZED %)
ONE-YEAR
South African Equity 5.03 8.05 11.34
Global Equity 10.70 13.31 15.82
Short-Term Bond 7.87 8.36 8.74
Diversified/Aggregate Bond 8.07 9.08 10.35
THREE-YEAR
South African Equity 1.74 3.09 4.91
Global Equity 8.34 10.88 12.51
Short-Term Bond 7.93 8.31 8.49
Diversified/Aggregate Bond 7.65 8.34 8.89
FIVE-YEAR
South African Equity 7.17 8.84 10.20
Global Equity 13.55 14.53 15.99
Short-Term Bond 7.04 7.37 7.66
Diversified/Aggregate Bond 7.08 7.72 8.15
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Morningstar. Data for periods ending June 30, 2018. Index performance based on total returns in ZAR.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Table is provided for illustrative purposes.

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SPIVA South Africa Scorecard Mid-Year 2018

APPENDIX A
SPIVA Styles and Morningstar Fund Classifications

Data from Morningstar is obtained for all managed funds domiciled in South Africa for which month-end
data is available during the performance period. The data includes the most comprehensive South
African fund data on active and finalized (merged or liquidated) funds over the chosen period. Funds
are classified based on the Morningstar fund classification system, and the SPIVA South Africa
Scorecard covers South African and international equity and fixed income categories.

International and South African Funds

The SPIVA South Africa Scorecard covers both domestic and international funds that are denominated
in South African rands and they have been mapped to the relevant Morningstar fund categories as
indicated in this report. The Morningstar classification system produces narrow, style-based
classifications for funds, particularly in relation to international equities. S&P Dow Jones Indices has
consolidated the style-based categories in order to generate a larger sample size and develop a broad-
market comparison to market-based benchmarks. A narrow, style-based comparison would yield a
limited sample size, given that value and growth style segments are not consistently discernible over a
five-year period.

Morningstar categories have been mapped to SPIVA peer groups in the following manner.

Exhibit 1: South African and International Funds–SPIVA and Morningstar Categories and Their Respective Benchmarks
MORNINGSTAR CATEGORY SPIVA CATEGORY BENCHMARK INDEX
S&P South Africa DSW Capped Gross
EAA Fund South Africa & Namibia Equity South African Equity Total Return (ZAR) / S&P South Africa
DSW Gross Total Return (ZAR)
EAA Fund Global Large-Cap Blend Equity
EAA Fund Global Large-Cap Growth Equity S&P Global 1200 Gross Total Return
Global Equity
EAA Fund Global Large-Cap Value Equity (ZAR)

EAA Fund Global Flex-Cap Equity

EAA Fund ZAR/NAD–Short Term Bonds South Africa Short Term Fixed Interest
Short-Term Bond
EAA Fund ZAR/NAD–Ultra Short Term Bonds (STeFI) Composite Total Return (ZAR)

EAA Fund ZAR/NAD–Diversified Bonds S&P South Africa Sovereign Bond 1+

Diversified/Aggregate Bond
EAA Fund ZAR/NAD–Flexible Bonds Year Total Return Index (ZAR)
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Morningstar. Table is provided for illustrative purposes.

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SPIVA South Africa Scorecard Mid-Year 2018

APPENDIX B
Glossary–Reports

PERCENTAGE OF FUNDS OUTPERFORMED BY THE INDEX

To correct for survivorship bias, we use the opportunity set available at the beginning of the period as
the denominator. We determine the count of funds that have survived and beat the index. We then
report the index outperformance percentage.

SURVIVORSHIP (%)

The survivorship measure represents the percentage of funds in existence at the beginning of the time
period that are still active at the end of the time period.

EQUAL-WEIGHTED FUND PERFORMANCE

Equal-weighted returns for a particular style category are determined by calculating a simple average
return of all active funds in that category in a particular month.

ASSET-WEIGHTED FUND PERFORMANCE

Asset-weighted returns for a particular style category are determined by calculating a weighted average
return of all funds in that category in a particular month, with each fund's return weighted by its total net
assets. Asset-weighted returns are a better indicator of fund category performance because they
reflect the returns of the total money invested in that particular style category with more accuracy.

QUARTILE BREAKPOINTS

The pth percentile for a set of data is the value that is greater than or equal to p% of the data but is less
than or equal to (100-p)% of the data. In other words, it is a value that divides the data into two parts:
the lower p% of the values and the upper (100-p)% of the values. The first quartile is the 75th
percentile, which is the value separating the elements of a population into the lower 75% and the upper
25%. The second quartile is the 50th percentile, and the third quartile is the 25th percentile. For fund
category quartiles in a particular time horizon, the data used is the return of the largest surviving share
class of the fund net of fees, excluding loads.

SURVIVORSHIP BIAS

Many funds might liquidate or merge during a period of study. This usually occurs due to continued
poor performance by the fund. Therefore, if index returns were compared to fund returns using only
surviving funds, the comparison would be biased in favor of the fund category. The SPIVA reports
remove this bias in three ways. The first method to remove the bias is to use the entire investment
opportunity set, made up of all funds in that particular category at the outset of the period, as the
denominator for outperformance calculations. The second is explicitly to show the survivorship rate in
each category. The final way is to construct a peer average return series for each category based on
all available funds at the outset of the period.

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SPIVA South Africa Scorecard Mid-Year 2018

FEES

The fund returns used are net of fees, excluding loads.

Indices

A benchmark index provides an investment vehicle against which fund performance can be measured.

S&P SOUTH AFRICA DOMESTIC SHAREHOLDER WEIGHTED (DSW) CAPPED INDEX

The S&P South Africa Domestic Shareholder Weighted (DSW) Capped Index modifies the S&P South
Africa Domestic Shareholder Weighted (DSW) Index to ensure that no single stock weighs more than
10% of the index at each rebalancing. The S&P South Africa Domestic Shareholder Weighted (DSW)
Index adjusts the weights of companies in the S&P South Africa Composite in order to reflect the level
of ownership by South African investors. The S&P South Africa Composite is a float-adjusted, market-
cap-weighted index that measures the performance of large-, mid-, and small-cap companies listed on
the Johannesburg Stock Exchange.

S&P GLOBAL 1200

Capturing approximately 70% of the world’s capital markets, the S&P Global 1200 is a composite of
seven headline indices, many of which are accepted leaders in their regions. It includes the S&P 500®
(U.S.), S&P Europe 350 (Europe), S&P/TOPIX 150 (Japan), S&P/TSX 60 (Canada), S&P/ASX All
Australian 50 (Australia), S&P Asia 50 (Asia Ex-Japan), and S&P Latin America 40 (Latin America).

SOUTH AFRICA SHORT TERM FIXED INTEREST (STEFI) COMPOSITE

The South Africa Short Term Fixed Interest (STeFI) Composite Index approximates the performance of
money market instruments in the market. Instruments such as call deposits and negotiable certificates
of deposits (BCD’s) represent common, liquid instruments and provide a good proxy of short-term
markets.

S&P SOUTH AFRICA SOVEREIGN BOND 1+ YEAR INDEX

The S&P South Africa Sovereign Bond 1+ Year Index seeks to track the performance of local-currency-
denominated sovereign debt publicly issued by the government of South Africa in its domestic market,
with maturities of one year or more.

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SPIVA South Africa Scorecard Mid-Year 2018

S&P DJI RESEARCH CONTRIBUTORS

Sunjiv Mainie, CFA, CQF Global Head sunjiv.mainie@spglobal.com
Jake Vukelic Business Manager jake.vukelic@spglobal.com
GLOBAL RESEARCH & DESIGN
AMERICAS
Aye M. Soe, CFA Americas Head aye.soe@spglobal.com
Phillip Brzenk, CFA Director phillip.brzenk@spglobal.com
Smita Chirputkar Director smita.chirputkar@spglobal.com
Rachel Du Senior Analyst rachel.du@spglobal.com
Bill Hao Director wenli.hao@spglobal.com
Qing Li Director qing.li@spglobal.com
Berlinda Liu, CFA Director berlinda.liu@spglobal.com
Hamish Preston Associate Director hamish.preston@spglobal.com
Maria Sanchez Associate Director maria.sanchez@spglobal.com
Kelly Tang, CFA Director kelly.tang@spglobal.com
Hong Xie, CFA Director hong.xie@spglobal.com
APAC
Priscilla Luk APAC Head priscilla.luk@spglobal.com
Akash Jain Associate Director akash.jain@spglobal.com
Liyu Zeng, CFA Director liyu.zeng@spglobal.com
EMEA
Sunjiv Mainie, CFA, CQF EMEA Head sunjiv.mainie@spglobal.com
Leonardo Cabrer, PhD Senior Analyst leonardo.cabrer@spglobal.com
Andrew Cairns Senior Analyst andrew.cairns@spglobal.com
Andrew Innes Associate Director andrew.innes@spglobal.com
INDEX INVESTMENT STRATEGY
Craig J. Lazzara, CFA Global Head craig.lazzara@spglobal.com
Fei Mei Chan Director feimei.chan@spglobal.com
Tim Edwards, PhD Managing Director tim.edwards@spglobal.com
Anu R. Ganti, CFA Director anu.ganti@spglobal.com
Howard Silverblatt Senior Index Analyst howard.silverblatt@spglobal.com

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SPIVA South Africa Scorecard Mid-Year 2018

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