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SEISMIC HAZARD
Lecco 01-03-2018
WHAT IS AN EARTHQUAKE?
ü plates movement
ü crust deformation
ü rupture
ü waves propagation
EARTH STRUCTURE
(USGS)
TECTONIC PLATES
TECTONIC PLATES THEORY
https://ingvterremoti.files.wordpress.com/2013/06/earthquakes-mondo.gif
“RING OF FIRE”
Long horseshoe-shaped
seismically active belt of
earthquake epicenters,
volcanoes, and tectonic
plate boundaries that
fringes the Pacific basin
Divergent boundaries
Divergent boundaries occur along spreading centers where
plates are moving apart and new crust is created by magma
pushing up from the mantle.
TECTONIC PLATES THEORY: PLATE BOUNDARIES
Convergent boundaries
Continental vs. Continental
Plates are moving toward each other, and
sometimes one plate sinks (is subducted)
under another. The location where sinking
of a plate occurs is called a subduction
zone.
The type of convergence that takes place
between plates depends on the kind of
lithosphere involved.
Continental vs. oceanic Oceanic vs. oceanic
TECTONIC PLATES THEORY: PLATE BOUNDARIES
Transform boundaries
Faults classification
http://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/10m.html
HOW TO MEASURE THE EARTHQUAKES
Macroseismic scales
Grado
Grade MCS MSK MM
I not felt - seismometers not felt - seismometers seismometers - felt (few)
II felt (many)
felt (many) felt (many) - effects on
III effect on objects
objects
IV felt (many) - effects on felt (most), effects on
objects objects and constructions
V
felt (most), effects on felt (most), effects on
VI
objects and constructions objects and constructions
VII
effects on objects,
VIII effects on objects, constructions and
constructions and environment effects on objects,
IX
environment constructions and
X
environment
XI
XII
MACROSEISMIC SCALES: EMS-98 (short form )
EMS
Definition Description of typical observed effects (abstracted)
intensity
I Not felt Not felt.
II Scarcely felt Felt only by very few individual people at rest in houses.
III Weak Felt indoors by a few people. People at rest feel a swaying or light trembling.
Felt indoors by many people, outdoors by very few. A few people are awakened. Windows, doors
IV Largely observed
and dishes rattle.
Felt indoors by most, outdoors by few. Many sleeping people awake. A few are frightened.
V Strong Buildings tremble throughout. Hanging objects swing considerably. Small objects are shifted. Doors
and windows swing open or shut.
Many people are frightened and run outdoors. Some objects fall. Many houses suffer slight non-
VI Slightly damaging
structural damage like hair-line cracks and fall of small pieces of plaster.
Most people are frightened and run outdoors. Furniture is shifted and objects fall from shelves in
large numbers. Many well built ordinary buildings suffer moderate damage: small cracks in walls,
VII Damaging
fall of plaster, parts of chimneys fall down; older buildings may show large cracks in walls and
failure of fill-in walls.
Many people find it difficult to stand. Many houses have large cracks in walls. A few well built
VIII Heavily damaging
ordinary buildings show serious failure of walls, while weak older structures may collapse.
General panic. Many weak constructions collapse. Even well built ordinary buildings show very
IX Destructive
heavy damage: serious failure of walls and partial structural failure.
X Very destructive Many ordinary well built buildings collapse.
Most ordinary well built buildings collapse, even some with good earthquake resistant design are
XI Devastating
destroyed.
Completely
XII Almost all buildings are destroyed.
devastating
INTENSITY MAPS
Epicentral intensity
observed intensity in the area of maximum damage
Epicentral coordinates
coordinates of the center of the area of maximum
damage (may be different from the coordinates derived
from seismograms)
SEISMOGRAPH
In the modern seismographs the pen and the paper are substituted by digital
systems that capture the electrical signals transmitted by an electromagnetic
sensor placed inside the seismometer fixed to the ground
ITALIAN NETWORKS
INGV Roma
Example of station
TYPE OF WAVES
P Waves
volume waves
S Waves
shear waves (secondary waves): cause
shifts in the orthogonal direction to the
direction of propagation of the wave
itself
and S waves with the earth's surface
consequence of the interaction of P
Love Waves
surface waves
Rayleigh Waves
ellipsoid motion in the vertical plane
containing the direction of propagation
Amplitude SEISMOGRAMS
P waves S waves
Surface waves
SATURATION
P-waves and S-waves graph
S Wave
P Wave
1500 km
8600 km
MAGNITUDE: definition of ML
1. An arbitrary scale on the magnitude axis (0, 1, 2,…) and a point corresponding to the
distance of 100Km on the distances axis (point “D”) are fixed
2. The intersections among the amplitude axis ad the lines connecting the point “D” with
the point of the magnitude scale (0,1,2,…) identify the amplitude values 0.001, 0.01,
0.1, etc..
3. The values of A0 related to different distances (see table) are identified on the
amplitude axis. The distance scale is built by the lines connecting these points with the
“0” of the magnitude axis (e.g.: A0=0.0001mm ð d=300 km)
Distance
Magnitude
Amplitude (mm)
MAGNITUDE: use of a graphic scale
1. From the graph of the arrival time differences between the S and P
waves the distance from the epicenter is obtained
2. Connecting in the graph the values of the max recorded amplitude and
the distance from the epicenter, the approximated value of the magnitude
is obtained
Amplitude (mm)
Magnitude
Distance
MAGNITUDE: definition of Mb
Mb body-wave Magnitude
Ms surface-wave Magnitude
Md duration Magnitude
Md = A*Log(t) + B*d + C
Mw Moment Magnitude
2
acc [m/s ]
2
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
-1
-2
-3
t [s]
PRINCIPAL PARAMETERS FROM ACCELEROGRAMS
p tf 2
Arias Intensity (m/s) Ia =
2g ò0
a ( t )dt
2p ò
tf
a 2 ( t ) dt
Destructive potential (m) pd =
0
2g n. a.
RESPONSE SPECTRUM
MOTION
EQUATION
&x& + 2nwx& + w 2 x = -a (t )
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0
Sv (m/s)
0.02
0.8 0.05
0.1
0.2
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
Periodo proprio (s)
SPECTRAL INTENSITY
0 .2
0 .1
0
0 0 .5 1 1 .5 2 2 .5
P e r io d o p r o p r io [s ]
0.5
SI = ò Sv (T ,0.05) dT
0.1
RESPONSE SPECTRUM (displacement)
0.06
0.05
0.04
0
0.02
Sd (m)
0.03 0.05
0.1
0.2
0.02
0.01
0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
Periodo proprio (s)
INTENSITY, MAGNITUDE, MAX. ACCELERATION
Empirical relationships
ü epicentral intensity = f (magnitude, focus depth)
ü acceleration = f (intensity)
ü acceleration = f (magnitude, distance)
SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT
AND SEISMIC SCENARIO
SEISMIC SCENARIO AND SEISMIC HAZARD
DETERMINISTIC PROBABILISTIC
V
U
L
SEISMIC SCENARIO N SEISMIC HAZARD
E
R
LOCAL A LOCAL
EFFECTS B EFFECTS
I
L
DETAILED SEISMIC I
LOCAL HAZARD
SCENARIO T
Y
DAMAGE SEISMIC
SCENARIO RISK
HAZARD ASSESSMENT: different approaches
Hypotheses
1. Stationary process - Poissonian distribution of the events occurrence:
given a period of time Δt, the average number of
events in Δt doesn’t change at any time you
consider it
BASIC ELEMENTS
ü Earthquake Catalogue
ü Seismic Sources
ü Attenuation Laws
EARTHQUAKE CATALOGUE (Italian CPTI04)
Maw Daw TW Mas Das TS Msp Dsp ZS9 TZ Ncft Nnt Ncpt
Np Number of intensity data point ZS9 Assigned Source zone of the event
I0 Epicentral Intensity (MCS scale) Ncft Order number in the catalog CFTI2
ENERGETIC TRESHOLDS
- sections pre-1980: Io ≥ 5/6 ; MCS o Ms ≥ 4.0 (used before in CPTI99 and NT4.1.1)
- sections post-1980: Ms ≥ 4.15
- Etnea zone Ms ≥ 3.0
CRONOLOGIC LIMITS
Events between 217 b.C. and 2002 AD
SEQUENCES ELABORATIONS
There are no aftershocks (events within 90 days and 30 km from the one identified as
“main event”)
GEOGRAFIC LIMITS
Italian events and, if in the boundaries, or near areas, but significantly felt in the
Italian territory
1800
1700
1600
years
1500
1400
1300
1200
1100
0.100
a/g
0.010
Example of
attenuation law:
acceleration Vs
0.001 distance,
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 depending on
magnitude
Distance [km]
ATTENUATION LAWS: Sabetta-Pugliese ‘96
1.600
7.5 7 6.5 6 5.5
1.400 5 4.5 4
1.200
1.000
PSA 5Hz (g)
0.800
0.600
0.400
0.200
0.000
1 10 100
Distanza [km]
0
1
2
Io - Ii
3
4
5
6
Distanza (km)
1.E+00
Average annual n° of events for Amax classes
1.E-01
1.E-02
1.E-03
1.E-04
1.E-05
1.E-06
1.E-07
1.E-08
0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 0.55 0.6 0.65 0.7 0.75 0.8 0.85 0.9 0.95 1 1.05 1.1 1.15 1.2 1.25
Amax (g)
PROBABILISTIC APPROACH: example of result
1.E+00
1.E-01
1.E-02
1.E-03
1- F(y)
1.E-04
1.E-05
1.E-06
1.E-07
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3
y (g)
Example of exceedance probability in 50 years
1E+00
in 50 years
1E-01
di Ag in 50 anni
of the acceleration
1E-02
di eccedenza
1E-03
Probability
1E-04
ExceedanceProbabilità
1E-05
1E-06
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3
Ag (g)
LOGIC TREE TO OBTAIN THE AMAX VALUES
Total
weight
HAZARD MAPS IN ITALY
Maximum ground
acceleration with
exceedance probability
10% in 50 years
(Tr = 475 years)
Criteria:
ü use of the scenario: planning emergency activity for
§ moderate and relatively frequent events
§ violent and relatively rare events
§ maximum credible event
ü type of method
Needed data:
ü Earthquake catalogue
ü Knowledge of the geological structures
DETERMINISTIC APPROACH: methods
physical
simplified
1.000
5 6 7
0.100
+ a/g
0.010
0.001
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Distance [km]
DETERMINISTIC APPROACH: example of result
DETERMINISTIC APPROACH: example of result
GARGNANO GARGNANO
VOBARNO VOBARNO
TOSCOLANO TOSCOLANO
MADERNO MADERNO
rda
GARDONE rda GARDONE
Ga
Ga
di
di
RIVIERA RIVIERA
go
go
La
La
0.55 VILLANUOVA ROE` VILLANUOVA ROE`
SUL CLISI VOLCIANO SUL CLISI VOLCIANO
SALO` SALO` r
2.75
2.65 2.55
2.25
GAVARDO GAVARDO 2.45 2.35 2.15 2.05
1.85
1.95 1.75 1.65
1.55 1.45
1.35 1.25 1.15 1.05 0.95
0.85
Amax (m/s2)
COMPARISON OF THE TWO APPROACHES
Probabilistic approach:
• definition of seismic actions for technical codes
• base for risk assessment
• base for prevention policies (e.g.: seismic municipalities
classification in Italy)
Deterministic approach:
base to construct seismic damage scenario for:
• pre earthquake emergency planning
• post earthquake estimate of situation (number of collapsed
buildings, number of victims, number of injured people)