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PLANNING &
CONTROL
COURSE FILE
GEETHANJALI COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY
Branch: ME Version No : 01
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Contents
S.No. Item Page No.
1. Cover page 2
2. Syllabus copy 3
3. Vision of the Department 4
4. Mission of the Department 4
5. PEOs and POs 5
6. Course objectives and outcomes 6
7. Brief importance of the course and how it fits into the curriculum 6
8. Prerequisites if any 6
9. Instructional Learning Outcomes 9
10. Course mapping with PEOs and POs 9
11. Class Time table 10
12. Individual Time table 11
13. Lecture schedule with methodology being used / adopted 12
14. Detailed notes 13
15. Additional topics 147
16. University previous Question papers of previous years 147
17. Question Bank 150
18. Assignment Questions 161
19. Unit-wise quiz questions 169
20. Tutorial Problems 172
21. Known curriculum Gaps (If any) and inclusion of the same in lecture schedule 181
22. Discussion topics, if any 181
23. References, Journals, websites and E-links if any 181
24. Quality measurement Sheets 182
a. Course end survey
b. Teaching Evaluation
25. Students List 183
26. Group-Wise students list for discussion topics 184
2. Syllabus copy
JAWAHARLAL NEHRU TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY
HYDERABAD
IV Year B.Tech. M.E. II-Sem T P C 4+1* 0 4
TEXT BOOKS :
1. Elements of Production Planning and Control / Samuel Eilon.
2. Modern Production/ operation managements / Baffa & Rakesh Sarin
REFERENCES :
1. Operations Management – S.N. Chary.
2. Inventory Control Theory and Practice/ Martin K. Starr and David W. Miller.
3. Reliability Engineering & Quality Engineering by Dr. C. Nadha Muni Reddy and Dr. K. Vijaya
Kumar Reddy, Galgotia Publications, Pvt., Limited.
4. Production Control A Quantitative Approach / John E. Biegel.
5. Production Control / Moore.
6. Operations Management / Joseph Monks.
abilities.
Prepare its graduates to pursue life-long learning, serve the profession and meet intellectual, ethical
To develop linkages with R&D organizations and Educational Institutions in India and abroad for
The Programme Educational Objectives of Mechanical Engineering Programme are developed to provide
guidance to Graduating Mechanical Engineers, so that they can contribute effectively to the advancement of
needs of Mechanical Engineering Profession.The graduates from Mechanical Engineering program are
expected to demonstrate within three to five years of graduation that
They practice Mechanical Engineering in all areas of Design, Thermal and Manufacturing
They apply technical knowledge and skills to real life technical challenges in various fields of
Mechanical Engineering.
They are competent in advanced Research and Development and creative efforts in Mechanical
They practice Mechanical Engineering in a professional, responsible and ethical manner for the
The Program Outcomes of the Department of Mechanical Engineering are to educate graduates, who by the
time of graduation, will be able to demonstrate:
An ability to design and conduct experiments, as well as to analyze and interpret data.
An ability to apply their broad education toward the understanding of the impact of engineering
A recognition of the need for, and the ability to engage in life-long learning.
An ability to use the techniques, skills, and modern engineering tools necessary for engineering
practice.
an ability to identify, illustrate, solve, formulate, distinguish & compare different engineering
problems.
will able to demonstrate an ability to design and conduct experiments, analyze and interpret data
will show the understanding of impact of engineering solutions on the society and also willbe aware of
contemporary issues
will develop confidence for self education and ability for life-long learning..
has the ability to use modern engineering tools, software and equipment to analyze problems.
2. The knowledge of production planning and control methods currently in use by industrial companies.
3.The ability to apply principles and techniques in the design, planning and control of these systems
to optimize/make best use of resources in achieving their objectives
4. The ability to develop a systematic approach to the solution of planning and control problems for a wide
variety of industrial and business organizations.
5. The knowledge of identifying different strategies employed in manufacturing and service industries to
plan production and control inventory.
6. The ability to measure the effectiveness, identify likely areas for improvement, develop and implement
improved planning and control methods for production systems. .
Course Outcomes:
After the completion of the course, the student would be able to
CO1:Apply the systems concept for the design of production and service systems.
CO2:.Make forecasts in the manufacturing and service sectors using selected quantitative and qualitative
techniques.
CO3:Apply the principles and techniques for planning and control of the production and service systems to
optimize/make best use of resources.
CO4:Understand the importance and function of inventory and to be able to apply selected techniques for its
control and management under dependent and independent demand circumstances.
CO5:Understand the core features of the production planning and control at the operational and strategic
levels,
specifically the relationships between people, process, technology, productivity and quality and how it
contributes to the competitiveness of firms.
CO6:Explain the various parts of the production planning and control processes and their interaction with
other
business functions (strategy, engineering, finance, marketing, HRM, project management and
innovation)
CO7:To develop an integrated framework for strategic thinking and decision making to analyze the
enterprise as
a whole with a specific focus on the wealth creation processes
CO8:Be ready to engage in a career path into Production planning and control that can eventually lead to a
managerial level role in a small to very large enterprise
CO9: to develop the ability to identify operational methodologies to assess and improve an organization’s
Performance
CO10: Demonstrate and explain the use of Manufacturing Requirements Planning (MRP2), Just - In - Time
(JIT)
techniques in terms of operation and their importance in Lean World Class Manufacturing
CO11:To plan and carry out work independently and to be self-disciplined and self-directed.
CO12:To develop the skills of insight and critical evaluation.
7. Brief Importance of the Course and how it fits into the curriculum
Production Planning and Control is the systematic approach and control of the processes that transform
inputs (e.g. human resources, facilities, materials, Information systems etc.) into finished goods and
services. The Production planning and control function consists of the core wealth creation processes of a
business and helps an organization to efficiently achieve its mission while constantly increasing
productivity and quality. This course focuses on the role of Production planning and control as a strategic
element of the total organization. Production planning is an activity that is performed before the actual
production process takes place. It involves determining the schedule of production, sequence of operations,
economic batch quantities, and also the dispatching priorities for sequencing of jobs.
Production control is mainly involved in implementing production schedules and is the corollary to short-
term production planning or scheduling. Production control includes initiating production, dispatching
items, progressing and then finally reporting back to production planning. In general terms, production
planning means planning of the work to be done later and production control refers to working out or the
implementation of the plan.
8. Prerequisites if any
1. Quantitative methods.
2. Management science
3.Operations Research
OR
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WED
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OR
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13.LECTURE SCHEDULE:
Teaching aids
S. Total no
Unit Reg/Additio used Rema
of Topics to be covered
No No nal rks
Periods
LCD/OHP/BB
PPC thus defines as the process of planning the production in advance, setting the
exact route of each item give “production order” to shops and lastly to follows up of
progress of produces according to order. The principles of PPC gives in the statement, “First
plan your work, then work your plan”.
There are few other department associated with PPC are personnel department,
manpower planning, costing department etc. Design department is important one as “ The
design is the problem of anticipating or trying to do what will be required in future and
improving what is being already produced.
Preplanning :
It is the procedure followed in developing and designing a work or production of a
developing and installing a proper layout or tools. It may be involved many functions of the
organization and draws upon forecasting, product design, jigs and tool design, machine
selection and estimating to enable proper design to be made. In short, preplanning decides
what shall be made and how it shall be made.
In respective manufacture a large uneconomic output could be produced if
preplanning is omitted. It is also important in one of the operations such as setting up a new
plants as preplanning can identify and avoid probable costly errors.
Planning :
This stage decides where and when the product shall be made. It includes the
sequencing of operations viz outing and the time schedule for manufacturing viz scheduling.
It also states procedures for material planning and supplies, machine loading and deliveries.
To perform as functions properly it will need past records of performance and to control
statistic which may be obtained from pre-planning, cost control or progress.
Control :
This refers to the stage of ensuring that the planned action is in tact carried out.
Control initiate the plan at the right time using dispatching and there after control makes
appropriate adjustments through progressing to take care of any unforeseen circumstances
Produ ction P l anning And Con trol 3
that might arise. It includes measurement of actual results, comparison of the same with the
planned action and feeding back information the planning stage to make any adjustments
required. The pattern of control is seen in material control, machine utilization, labour
control, cost control and quality control.
3) Selection of Site :
While selecting the site, technical, commercial and financial aspects should
thoroughly be considered. Site should be selected in two states; in first stage general
location for factory should be selected in this location. Important factors to be considered
for the selection of site.
i) General location of the factory.
ii) Selection of exact site.
4) Plant Layout :
One of the most important aspects of production system design is layout of facilities
primary object of these is to optimize the arrangements “ 4 m’s” and supporting services.
5) Design and Drawing :
4 Pro du ctio n P l a n n in g And C o n tro l
After deciding the product its detailed drawing are prepared so that no doubt is left
for future. Detailed specifications for raw materials and finished product should be decided
carefully along with the specification of the machines required for their manufacture.
6) Material requirement :
The list of materials required for manufacture is prepared from the engineering
drawings. This list is known as “Bill of materials” part list”.
7) Operation Planning :
Work of this is to select the best method of manufacturing, so that the wastage of
material, labour, machine and time can be eliminated, to have more production with less
fatigue. This work is done in two phases, namely. Method study is conducted to eliminate
the wastage due to ill directed and inefficient motions. Time study is the exact estimation of
time and is very essential for correct pricing.
8) Machine loading :
Number of machines to be installed in a plant should be decided very carefully while
planning, proper care should be taken to find out the machining time for each operation as
correct as possible, so that arrangement for full utilization of machines can be made and
machines loading program is prepared accordingly.
9) Sub-contract consideration :
With the development of technology and specialization, it is difficult to manufacture
all the components in the same factory, due to fact that specialized machines plants and
workers.
The decision about particular item, whether to purchase or to manufacture, is taken
by planning department after making a through study of the relative merits and demerits.
10) Equipment Requirement :
After knowing the number of equipments, their accessories and tools required, cost
data can be collected to give and idea of capital requirement.
11) Organisational Layout and staff Requirement :
Layout of organisation is decided by considering the nature of work, type of industry
size of industry, etc and in line of above the stalls are appointed.
12) Material Handling :
The material handling problems must be studied before the erection of the factory
building and plant layout.
13) Budgeting :
Budgeting is forecasting and preplanning for a particular future period using past
experience and market trends.
Produ ction P l anning And Con trol 5
1.4 PLANNING
Planning is exercise of intelligent anticipation in order to establish how an objective
can be achieved, or a need fulfilled, in circumstances which are invariable restrictive.
Planning provides the supporting arithmetic for an objective which has already been
decided. It does not establish whether the objective is right or wrong, good or bad,
worthwhile or worthless except in terms which have also been decided beforehand.
Consequently, only plan is invariably biased in favour of the chosen objective. Incidentally,
to attack it on this count is rather like shooting the plainest and setting fire to the plans, not
because the plainest is playing badly or the plans are out of the tune, but simply because one
does not like the music which is being played.
Planning is an act of prediction, the accuracy of which varies enormously depending
upon the kind of objective, kind of circumstances, the skill of the planner and his techniques
and chance.
Planning is necessary because resources are limited. Production planning activities
originate at the aggregate level and consider decisions relevant to a specific planning
horizon. A planning horizon can be a period as short as four weeks a month, or a quarter (03
weeks) but more commonly refers to periods of from six months to a year or more.
The aggregate planning problem is to determine the production rate which satisfies
the anticipated output requirements; while minimizing the related costs associated with the
fluctuation of work force, inventories, and other relevant decision variables such as overtime
hours subcontracting and capacity utilization. Production planning translated sales forecast
into master production schedules. There are three distinct types of production planning:
i) Project planning.
6 Pro du ctio n P l a n n in g And C o n tro l
concept and techniques. The amount inventory on hand will affect production plans as well
as customers delivery and the form of inventory like raw or finished material, and the good
at various stages of processing.
It is readily apparent the need for adequate production planning, especially in
situation where long lead time are required to change production capabilities. Requirement
of rare work force skills of imported equipment or raw materials of expanded plants of
facilities can often severally reduce a companies, abilities to meet changing market condition
considerable advance planning is done, a manufacturing limitation and it self was
insufficient productive capabilities or with an over supply of absolute limited goods.
1.6 PRODUCTION
Implementation is the stage of the project when the theoretical design is turned in to
working system.
Implementation phase involves the staff of user departments carrying out specific
tasks which require supervision and control to critical schedules.
Production is the process by which goods and services are created. Production
systems combine materials, labours, and capital resources in an organised way with the
objective of producing some goods or service. Production system may occur in factories,
banks, stores, hospitals etc. In all instances, some input to the system is being processed
within the system to produce a goods or services as an output; we are in fact dealing with the
operations phases of any enterprise.
‘Creation’ of goods and services of production, to perform this function, the
production system require inputs from other subsystems of the organization, such as service
inputs ( e.g. maintenance, supervision, plant layout, design etc.) and control inputs (e.g.
measurement, data processing, planning, control, order and sales information processing,
forecasting etc.).
Three main factors may be said to determine the place of production planning and
control in an organization.
1. The type of production i.e. the quantities of finished products and the regularity of
manufacture.
2. Size of the plant.
3. The type of industry i.e. the field of specialization of the plant.
Industries can be classified into types by several methods; by availability of different
kinds of labour in different geographical locations, by the demand for different grades of
skills, and by the factors relating to investment policy.
8 Pro du ctio n P l a n n in g And C o n tro l
1.8 CONTROL
The principles of control are the same for production control, quality control,
budgetary control, cost control and other managerial controls. The basic cycle of events in
the control are Action, Feedback, Evaluation and Adjustment. Since these events are
dynamically in continuous they take the form of a closed-loop circuit. There are seven
essential steps in the establishment and application of operating controls. These steps will be
discussed in their normal sequence and is diagrammatically represented in figure 1.1.
(A) Operation :
The first step in the control cycle is operation. In this step, the act of doing
something, some faults will be obvious and, therefore, easily corrected. Other faults will be
more deceptively concealed requiring the steps that follow to reveal them so that they can be
dealt with.
(B) Measurement :
The second step is so measure what is being done. In the field of quality control for
example, variations in physical, chemical, electrical, dimensional and other properties are
measured. In production control, all operations are measured to determine the time required
for their performance and the capacities of equipment with which work is done. In
Produ ction P l anning And Con trol 9
(D) Objectives :
After we discover what we can do, we are ready to figure out what we should as this
may either be more or less than our capabilities. This decision then leads to plans for using
excess capabilities on other plans to increase capabilities either for quality or quantity so that
the objective can be met.
(E) Evaluations :
As the information is fed back from operations, it is compared with plans and
objectives other evaluations are used to adjust budgets and costs.
(F) Adustment :
The last step in production control is adjustment. Production control adjustments are
complicated because they often require increasing or reducing quantities based upon past
operation and sales in quality control adjustments are made to maintain product quality
requirement within limits.
The figure 1.1 illustrates the best cycle in control of production. In it, image two
rotating sequence on the basic elements of action, feedback and evaluation that come logure
in compound adjustment. This is based on the current information.
When production orders and detailed operation sheet available with specification
feeds, speed and use of auxiliary attachments and method, the operation time can be worked
out. It may be consequently results in wide scatter of operation times and unduly large
fluctuation and perhaps instabilities in time schedules.
Decision Rules :
The scheduling function is such a detailed process that it must usually be delegated
to middle or lower management levels. Consequently, the schedulers, of themselves, are
actually not in position to relate their activities to the overall company goals and objective.
Yet their function is vital to the achievement of such ends. Consequently, it is necessary to
establish decision rules which will help tie the two levels of management together.
Decision rules for scheduling should be fairly specific. Not only do they serve the
purpose of linking the scheduling function with the attainment of total organizational goals
but they provide consistency in scheduling practice so that people can be interchanged, so
that schedules can be interpreted uniformly throughout the organization, and so that even
one concerned will under stand the process. They also make it possible to place much of the
scheduling detail work on computers.
Decision rules can take many forms. The selection of the particular rules will
largely depend upon the particular circumstance for which they are required. Competitive
made of conditions, internal cost structures, the nature of the product, capacity consideration
etc will all have their effect.
advance of their actual introduction. This can be very useful and save considerable relief
and confusion as follows the testing of such rules without the disruption of production.
Again, there is a caution involved in the use of decision rules. It is extremely
difficult to design any set of rules which will cover every situation. Consequently, decision
rules must be considered only as guidelines, not absolute, and flexibility must exist to
deviate when necessary. On the other hand, it is probably sensible to require a through
explanation every time a deviation is authorized, lost deviation from the rules become more
common than applications of the guidelines. If the rules are well constructed they should
tend to maximize benefits to the firm as a whole and should not be changed capriciously by
individuals who cannot see the impact of such changes on overall corporate goals. However,
this also implies the need for continuous review procedures to make sure that the rules are in
tune with present conditions.
A point often overlooked is that if decision rules for scheduling are not formally and
explicitly established, they usually evolve in through default. Each person involved in the
scheduling process will usually have his own method-perhaps one that makers sense only to
him, but still a method. Sometimes this may be the best the alternative for a firm (e.g.the
potential cost saving do not justify taking the time to establish a formal procedure).
However, this should be explicitly determined. Otherwise, an organisation may be looking a
major opportunity for improvement and enhanced efficiency.
(VII) Diaspatching :
It is important mechanism of production control. Meaning of this term is sending to
destination or starting something on way. When applied to production control, it means the
assignment of work to different machines or work places which involves insurance of order
and production form in order of their priority as determined by scheduling. In dispatching
translated into reality or physical work which has been planned scheduling.
Duties of Dispatching :
1. Assignment of work to different machines of work place men.
2. Movement of material from stores to the first process and from process.
3. Issue of tool orders, instructing the tool department to collect and make ready jigs and
fixtures, in advance of time, at which the operation will commence.
4. Issue of time ticket, drawing, instruction cards & other necessary information presented
performing the work.
5. Issue of inspection order after each operation to determine the result in the number of
pieces “good” and the “bad” and cause of spoilage.
Produ ction P l anning And Con trol 15
6. Issue of more orders and collection of time tickets, drawings, instruction cards for all
completed operations.
7. Recording time of beginning and completing jobs hand calculate duration of, forwarding
complete records to production department and time card pay roll department.
8. Recording and reporting idle time of machine and operation.
Dispatching Procedure :
Manner in which schedule or orders are issued depends upon whether the
dispatching decentralized or centralized in the Decentralized : The manufacturing schedules
or work orders in blanket fashion to the foreman or dispatch clerk within department. It is
duty of foreman or clerk to dispatch the orders of material to each machine and operator.
In centralized dispatching : This involves the dispatching of orders from central
dispatching division to machine or work station. Capacity and characteristic of each
machine is recorded in central dispatching station. Regardless of type of dispatching it is
customary for department to department themselves informed of the starting dates, progress
of each order by means of wall chart visible index file or one of the several types of
department dispatching boards.
Dispatching Rule:
Simple Rule :
1. Earliest due date : Run the job with the earliest due date, results in good date performance.
2. First come first served : Run the job which arrived in the waiting line first. Result at low
variance of manufacturing cycle time.
3. Shortest processing time : Run the job which has the shortest set up plus machining for the
current work centre.
Combination Rule :
1. Minimum stock : Slack equals calendar time remaining minus processing time remaining
or slack equals date minus present time minus set up and machining time all remaining
operation.
2. Critical ratio : The critical ratio are made to order work is a slack type rule. Critical
equals 0 to due date minus present time divided by number of days required to complete the
job order.
(VIII) Expediting :
Follow up which regulates the progress of materials and parts through the
production process. This closely inter elated with activities of dispatcher to whom is
delegated scheduling responsibility.
16 Pro du ctio n P l a n n in g And C o n tro l
Follow up is that novel tool which acts as a regulator of material and components
parts when they are traveling on the path of performance as laid down by sheets and
schedule charts. It serves as a catalytic agent to fuse the various separate an unrelated
production activities into the unified whole that means progress.
TYPE :
1. Materials : To follow up purchased materials is responsibility or purchasing department.
This can be accomplished most simply by filling one copy of requisition in a daily follow up
file or in ticket file according to the date of materials is due to be received.
2. Work in progress : This follow up the work by checking the process and recording the
production accomplished by production line for comparison purpose with preplanned
schedules. It is the duty of follow-up men or expediters to advise the foreman as to the best
sequence in which the orders can be run so as the required part in which order to be
fabricated and brought it together at right time, place for the completion of finished product.
3. Assembly and Erection : Responsibility for assembly and erection of products in assembly
manufacturing is almost invariably rested. When all the parts of an available, the follow up
man permits assembly of election of products in start in case of large complicated product
this is very necessary.
(IX) Inspection :
Another major control is inspection. Its finding land criticism are of the importance
both in execution of current program and both in planning stage of fibre undertaking when
the limitations of the processor, method and manpower are known. These limitations can
form a basis for future investigations in evaluating the showed improving production
methods.
(X) Evaluating :
Perhaps the most neglected, but on an essential link between control and forwarding
is that of evaluating. The essential task of dispatching and evaluating are concerned with the
immediate issue of production and with measures that will be as certain fulfillment target.
Valuable information is gathered limited in nature and unless provision is made so that all
the accumulated information can be properly digested and analyzed data may be irretrievable
lost. Thus here the evaluating function comes in to provide a feedback mechanism on the
longer term basis so that the past experience can be evaluated with the view to improving
utilization of method and facilities. This is the integral part of control function.
Produ ction P l anning And Con trol 17
1 4 7
Factory layout
Equipment policy
The 4 M’s 3 6 9
Machine
and
10
Feedback
Fig. 1.1 The ten function of production planning and control cycle.
MATERIAL PLANNING
Solution :
Items A B C D E F G H I J 10
Annual 10000 8100 2250 250 340 320 810 1750 1800 780 26900
Values
or uses
Where, 10 – the column is total annual value.
Order items by descending annual values & calculate common annual value (Step II)
G 810 95 C
J 780 98 C
F 320 99 C
D 250 100 C
120
COMULATIVE % OF
ANNUALVALUE OF
100
STOCK
TOTAL
80 A B C
60 Items Items e,g,j,f,d
a,b c,i,h
40 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
CONCLUSION :
It is evident from the discussion that to have an healthy organization the pre
planning and post-planning activities are to be ground property at the initial stage turning
organization, after preplanning the links are connected with PPC department planning,
evaluation, adjustment, feedback and overall control. Ten functions of PPC as if ten
Commandments to be followed in any manufacturing industry. Depending upon the nature
of production and size of unit, these functions are glooming in determination position and
when required. But it appears in one of other forms. We cannot, therefore abolish its
Produ ction P l anning And Con trol 23
existence in the organization. In case, it has been evacuated purposely it fleets badly on the
associated activities and ten departments involved thereon. This has been depicted precisely
in the data sheet.
We observed that in almost all functions, PPC is the governing department and
therefore it has been after every function, if not in existence. Therefore, PPC can be
considered and value as a heart on the manufacturing of any type and any size.
Therefore to have an healthy organization, less confusion in workers, proper feeding
to top management to chalk out their dynamic policies, PPC department plays a very
important and vital role in organization. Naturally, it should be made more dynamic,
powerful by shoulding more authorities and responsibilities on the experienced and
conservative staff of PPC department.
Gov1990
P.N o.2.:- “Communication is very imp function of business office; Issue the statement
highlighting the characteristics of good of inter communication.
N/1010
What is the need of the PPC? Explain production control as a nervous system?
(3+4)
it was proposed to allocate been representative “arm perion should you approve of suit
24 Pro du ctio n P l a n n in g And C o n tro l
2. SALES FORECASTING
A forecast is an estimate of the level demand to the expected for a production of
several products for some period of time in the future.
Forecast is made of sales ( in Rs.) or physical units under a proposed marketing or
program & under an assumed set of economic & other force outside the unit system).
Forecast should cover a time period at least as long as the period of time
required to make the decision & to put that decision into effect.
Applications/uses/purposes :
There are 3 major purposes.
1) To determine necessity for & the size of plant expansion ( Facility Forecast )
2) To determine intermediate planning for existing products to be manufactured with
existing facilities.
3) To determine Short-time scheduling of existing products to be manufactured on existing
equipments ( Product Forecast )
2) Indirect Survey method : In this method the attitude & behaviour of the customers is
predicted through salesman. Agents, whole sellers, retailers etc.
2) Market Research : Through critical analysis of the marketing forces, changing pattern of
socio-economics pressures, political changes in style, attitudes, fashion etc, we can diet the
future demands of the product.
3) Sales force composite method : ( Subjective opinion ) in this forecast, all the marketing
& sales peoples ( Sales-man, traders middle men etc ) express their considered opinion of the
volume of the sales expected in the future. These opinions are then collected & evaluated.
4) Jury of Executive Opinion Method : Here opinions of experts are invited about the sale
in future. It is simple & fast but not scientific.
5) Projection Method : Based on the historical data, future can be projected to some
extension.
A line drawn through known information is projected into the forecast area to predict what
the sales volume will be for future periods. Projection of future can be done either by time
series Analysis or Correlation, regression Analysis tech.
Time series Analysis : A time series is a chronological data which has some quantity such
sales rupees, sales volume, prod. figures, imports, exports, number of passengers traveling
by Air lines etc. as dependent variable & unit of time as independent variable.
The movements or variations of the dependent variable may be
Long period changes (Trend)
26 Pro du ctio n P l a n n in g And C o n tro l
2. Methods of Averages :
a) Selected point method : Here the values are selected of the years which are considered to
be the most representative or normal. Then a straight line is drawn.
b) Semi-avg.method : Here data is divided into two equal halves & averages for each half is
calculated. The avg. for half is taken to be representative of the value corresponding to the
mid-point of the time interval of that half. Thus these two points determine the position of a
trend line. The trend line can be extended to estimate future values or intermediate values.
c) Moving Avg. methods : It is discussed later on.
3) Statistical methods : It is statistical analysis of past demand. It is most accurate method
provided there is relationship between past & future. In fact past offers best basis for
decision on future action. However one must modify the prediction form past data if he
Produ ction P l anning And Con trol 27
knows that certain events will or will probably happen in future e.g. events like expansion of
sales area, advertising, withdrawal of competitor etc, will tend to increase the sale. On the
other hand events like entry of new competition, product becoming calculated will tend to
develop sale. Such considerations should be reflected in new forecast.
In statistical method we are going to consider following 3 cases.
1. Level demand with Random variation.
2.An Upward Trend with Random Variation.
3. Cyclic (Seasonal) Demand.
Months J F M A M J J A S O N D Total
Demand (d) 90 111 99 89 87 84 104 102 95 114 103 113 1191
No. of period 12
99 Units can be used as a forecasting function. That is we would forecast that
demand will be 99 units for each of the next several months.
28 Pro du ctio n P l a n n in g And C o n tro l
We want to evaluate this method (arithmetic avg.) forecasting . This can be done by
determining the standard error of estimation or standard deviation.
(d d) 2
1180 = 10.4 units
s =
11
n -1
d - Actual demand
n - No of periods included
d - Avg. demand
The calculation are shown in tabular form.
Demand (d)
Month d d d (d d) 2
J 99 90 9 81
F 99 111 12 144
M 99 99 0 0
A 99 89 10 100
M 99 87 12 144
J 99 84 15 225
J 99 104 5 25
J 99 102 3 9
A 99 95 4 16
S 95 4 16
O 114 15 225
N 103 4 16
D 113 14 196
1191
(d d) 2 1180.25
Now we can say that we are 95% confident that the demand in any month will lie
between 79 and 119 units. 95% confidents means, in 95 month out of next 100 months
demand will lie between 79 and 119.
95 % confidence limits = avg. demand 1.96 % deviation
= 99 (1.96 x 10.4)
= 79 & 119 units.
Note : 99.7 % confidence limit = Avg. demand 3 std. deviation.
Produ ction P l anning And Con trol 29
Assumptions made:-
1. Demand data studied for the periods are truly representative of the demand.
2. The cause system was unchanged & unchanging during the period studied.
3. Same cause system will continue to be operative for some time into the future.
Summary :-
Results of our analysis are –
1. Forecast is that the demand will be 99 units per month.
2. The std. deviation of demand is 10 units.
3. In 95 of 100 months we would expect demand to fall between 79 & 119 units.
(at 95 % confidence level)
120
110
DEMAND
100
90
80
70
J F M A M J J A S O N D
MONTH
Example 2:- An upward trend with random variations :
Data given & the calculations done are shown below.
Months Demand (d) t D1-19343 (d – d)2
J 199 1 196 9
F 202 2 199 9
M 199 3 202 9
A 208 4 205 9
M 212 5 208 16
J 194 6 211 289
J 214 7 214 0
30 Pro du ctio n P l a n n in g And C o n tro l
A 220 8 217 9
S 219 9 220 1
O 234 10 223 121
N 219 11 226 49
D 233 12 230 9
2
d = 2553 t = 78 (d-d) = 530 d
240
230
220
210
200
190
J F M A M J J A S O N D
MONTHS
Where,
2553
d 212.75
12
3.05
-
a db t
212.75 3.05 ( 78 / 12 )
192.92 193
( d d 1 )2
n 2
We can expect that the future demand will full between d1 + 14 & d1-11 which
confidence.
95 % confidence level = 1.96 std. dev.
= 1.96 7.3
= 14
Summary :-
1) The forecast demand will follow the regression line d1 = 193t + 3t.
2) The Std. error of our estimate is 7.3
3) In 95 of 100 months we expect the demand to be between d1 + 14 & d1 – 14 units. Again
correctness of our forecast is a function of stability of the cause system.
Example 3 : Cyclic (Seasonal) Demand :-
(1)
n n
d’ = demand in future
a= d
values of ‘u’ & ‘v’ can be found from the determinant –
sin 2 t
1 cos 2 t n
d 1
n
O
d N O
O
2 t O
d cos
n O n/ 2
n n
1176 12 0 0
0
98 0 6 0
19.8 0 0 6
u = -16.3
v = -3.3
t t
d1 98 16.3 cos 3.3 sin (3)
6 6
(d1 d t ) 2
Std. error of estimation is 1
S
S = 12.7
Forecast at 95 % confidence level d1 1.96 x 12.7
d1 25 units
Summery :-
1) Expected demand will be
t 3.3 sin t
d 1 98 16.3 cos
6 6 6
140
120
DEMAND
100
80
60
J F M A M J J A S O N D
MONTH
34 Pro du ctio n P l a n n in g And C o n tro l
NOTE :-
When the demand data is given but the type of forecast (i.e. constant, linear or
cyclic) is not given, then in order to decide which forecaster is to be used (i.e. constant,
linear or cyclic), following method should be adopted.
- Plot the graph between the given demand figures & the time months)
- Observe the nature of graph.
- Decide whether the demand pattern is constant, linearly increasing or
cyclic.
- Select & use the forecaster accordingly.
- Otherwise all three forecasting functions (const, linear & cyclic)
Should be applied to the given data initially & the forecasting functions yielding minimum
standard error of estimation should be selected & used in future.
Ex. The following series relates to the production of a commercial concern of 8 yrs.
Year 1974 75 76 77 78 79 80 81
Prodn 15420 14470 15520 21020 26120 31950 35360 356
Units
Find the trend of prod”. Assume a 3 – year cycle and ignore decimals.
Solutions :- Calculations of trend of prod” by the method of moving average.
Produ ction P l anning And Con trol 35
Advantages :-
1) It gives a fair good picture of general long term movement in data provided data contains
uniform cyclic & if the trend in data is linear of approximate.
2) No personal prejudice & bias of the computer.
3) Cyclic fluctuations are completely eliminated if the period of moving avg is equilibrium
to the period of cycles.
4) Simpler without fitting the curve.
Disadvantages :-
1) Tendency to cut out corners which results in loss of data at the ends.
e.g. 2 yrly cut 1 value 7 yearly – 6 values
3 yrly cut 2 values
5 yrly cut 3 values
2) No mathematical eqn. For forecasting.
3) Sharp turns in graph reduces to small curvatures.
4) Care is to be taken for data selection & period of moving avg.
5) Trend will accurate only if cyclic & irregular fluctuations are uniform both in duration &
amplitude.
6) Tends to lag behind the trend.(means it gives lower values than regression line for an
upward trend & vice-versa)
2. Exponential Smoothing Method:-
When a new observation is made after old forecast is completed (based on any
method), then certainly there will be difference between old forecast & new observation.
36 Pro du ctio n P l a n n in g And C o n tro l
Therefore forecast can be revaluated for next observation, from old observation allowing an
error. The correctness will be achieved by fraction of the error.
New Forecast = old Forecast + (Latest observation – old Forecast)
-ve
(d’ – d) 0
+
-0.89 MR
1
.
7
7 -1.77 MR
M
R
LCL=-2.66 MR
+ 0.89
MR
Cent
er
line
Period
Produ ction P l anning And Con trol 37
n example No.1 We established d1 = 99 units as a forecaster. We shall new test its validity.
30
LCL = + 28.2
20
10
(d'-d)
0
F M A M J J A S O N D
-10 J LCL = -28.2
MONTH
-20
117
12 1
10.6
30
UCL = 28.2
20
10
0
LCL = - 28.2
-30
J F M A M J J A S O N D J E M A M J J
First Year Second Year
CONTROL CHART FOR FIRST NINETEEN MONTHS
Again the rest for out of control condition should be applied. By doing so we find
out the point for period 19 indicates out of control conditions. Therefore new forecast the
basis of 19 period should be established. Also new values of MR, UCL, LCL should be
calculated.
Avg. forecaster d 19.13 102
19
& MR 10.4
S 10.4
Again prepare the fresh control chart for above values as shown below. From the
control chart we shall conclude that d1 = 102 is better forecaster than d1= 99. We shall use
new forecaster in future until we will find evidence for out of control condition in the control
chart. So it is a continuous process.
40 Pro du ctio n P l a n n in g And C o n tro l
30
20
10
Points for period nos 20, 21, 22, 23 & 24 are placed in the above chart using the following
given data.
Months Period (1) Demand (d)
A 20 105
S 21 109 -7
O 22 93 9
N 23 110 -8
D 24 116 -14
Same procedure can be adopted to verify & control the linear forecaster & cyclic forecaster
of Ex 2 & Ex 3 respectively.
Q.No.1. Explain various types of forecasts.
Q.No.2 . Define production forecasting.
Q.No.3. Merits & demerits of ‘moving Avg. forecasting.
Q.No.4. third moving range charts are helping in verification of forecasting.
Q.No.5. Discuss the imp of sales forecasting for production scheduling.
Q.No.6. What do you mean by Experimental smoothing forecasting.
Q.No.7. Why it is necessary to revise the forecasts? How do you want of central conditions
using is moving range chart.
Q.No.8. Explain the forecasts based upon the averages.
Q.No.9. What is the std. error of estimate.
Q.No.10. Discuss the merits of Demerits of ‘Moving Avg forecasting.
Produ ction P l anning And Con trol 41
A production system can be defined as a transformation system in which a saleable product or service is
created by working upon a set of inputs. Inputs are usually in the form of men, machine, money, materials
etc. Production systems are usually classified on the basis of the following:
Type of product,
Type of production line,
Rate of production,
Equipments used etc.
They are broadly classified into three categories:
Job Production
In this system products are made to satisfy a specific order. However that order may be produced-
only once
or at irregular time intervals as and when new order arrives
or at regular time intervals to satisfy a continuous demand
The following are the important characteristics of job shop type production system:
Machines and methods employed should be general purpose as product changes are quite
frequent.
Planning and control system should be flexible enough to deal with the frequent changes in product
requirements.
Man power should be skilled enough to deal with changing work conditions.
Schedules are actually non existent in this system as no definite data is available on the
product.
In process inventory will usually be high as accurate plans and schedules do not exist.
Product cost is normally high because of high material and labor costs.
Grouping of machines is done on functional basis (i.e. as lathe section, milling section etc.)
This system is very flexible as management has to manufacture varying product types.
Material handling systems are also flexible to meet changing product requirements.
Batch Production
Batch production is the manufacture of a number of identical articles either to meet a specific order or to
meet a continuous demand. Batch can be manufactured either-
only once
or repeatedly at irregular time intervals as and when demand arise
or repeatedly at regular time intervals to satisfy a continuous demand The
following are the important characteristics of batch type production system:
As final product is somewhat standard and manufactured in batches, economy of scale can be availed
to some extent.
Machines are grouped on functional basis similar to the job shop manufacturing.
Semi automatic, special purpose automatic machines are generally used to take advantage of the
similarity among the products.
Labor should be skilled enough to work upon different product batches.
In process inventory is usually high owing to the type of layout and material handling
policies adopted.
Semi automatic material handling systems are most appropriate in conjunction with the semi
automatic machines.
Normally production planning and control is difficult due to the odd size and non repetitive nature
of order.
Mass Production
In mass production, same type of product is manufactured to meet the continuous demand of the product.
Usually demand of the product is very high and market is going to sustain same demand for sufficiently long
time.
As same product is manufactured for sufficiently long time, machines can be laid down in order of
processing sequence. Product type layout is most appropriate for mass production system.
Standard methods and machines are used during part manufacture.
Most of the equipments are semi automatic or automatic in nature.
Material handling is also automatic (such as conveyors).
Semi skilled workers are normally employed as most of the facilities are automatic.
As product flows along a pre defined line, planning and control of the system is much easier.
Cost of production is low owing to the high rate of production.
In process inventories are low as production scheduling is simple and can be implemented with
ease.
PRODUCT DESIGN
Product design is a strategic decision as the image and profit earning capacity of a small firm
depends largely on product design. Once the product to be produced is decided by the entrepreneur
the next step is to prepare its design. Product design consists of form and function. The form
designing includes decisions regarding its shape, size, color and appearance of the product. The
functional design involves the working conditions of the product. Once a product is designed, it
prevails for a long time therefore various factors are to be considered before designing it. These
(a) Standardization
(b) Reliability
(c) Maintainability
(d) Servicing
(e) Reproducibility
(f) Sustainability
(g) Product simplification
(h) Quality Commensuration with cost
(i) Product value
(j) Consumer quality
(k) Needs and tastes of consumers.
Above all, the product design should be dictated by the market demand. It is an important decision and
therefore the entrepreneur should pay due effort, time,energy and attention in order to get the best
results.
Broadly one can think of three types of production systems which are mentioned here
under: -
(a) Continuous production: - It refers to the production of standardized products with a standard set of
process and operation sequence in anticipation of demand. It is also known as mass flow production or
assembly line productionThis system ensures less work in process inventory and high product quality
butinvolves large investment in machinery and equipment. The system is suitable in 117plants involving large
volume and small variety of output e.g. oil refineries reform cement manufacturing etc.
(b) Job or Unit production: - It involves production as per customer's specification each batch or order
consists of a small lot of identical products andis different from other batches. The system requires
comparatively smallerinvestment in machines and equipment. It is flexible and can be adapted tochanges
in product design and order size without much inconvenience. This system is most suitable where
heterogeneous products are produced againstspecific orders.
(c) Intermittent Production: Under this system the goods are produced partly for inventory and partly
for customer's orders. E.g. components are made forinventory but they are combined differently for
different customers. . Automobileplants, printing presses, electrical goods plant are examples of this type
ofmanufacturing.
FORE CASTING
Introduction
The growing competition, frequent changes in customer's demand and the trend towards automation demand
that decisions in business should not be based purely on guesses rather on a careful analysis of data
concerning the future course of events. More time and attention should be given to the future than to the past,
and the question 'what is likely to happen?' should take precedence over 'what has happened?' though no
attempt to answer the first can be made without the facts and figures being available to answer the second.
When estimates of future conditions are made on a systematic basis, the process is called forecasting and the
figure or statement thus obtained is defined as forecast.
In a world where future is not known with certainty, virtually every business and economic decision rests
upon a forecast of future conditions. Forecasting aims at reducing the area of uncertainty that surrounds
management decision-making with respect to costs, profit, sales, production, pricing, capital investment, and
so forth. If the future were known with certainty, forecasting would be unnecessary. But uncertainty does
exist, future outcomes are rarely assured and, therefore, organized system of forecasting is necessary. The
following are the main functions of forecasting:
The creation of plans of action.
The general use of forecasting is to be found in monitoring the continuing progress of plans based
on forecasts.
The forecast provides a warning system of the critical factors to be monitored regularly
because they might drastically affect the performance of the plan.
It is important to note that the objective of business forecasting is not to determine a curve or series of
figures that will tell exactly what will happen, say, a year in advance, but it is to make analysis based on
definite statistical data, which will enable an executive to take advantage of future conditions to a greater
extent than he could do without them. In forecasting one should note that it is impossible to forecast the
future precisely and there always must be some range of error allowed for in the forecast.
FORECASTING
FUNDAMENTALS
Types of Forecasts
- Economic forecasts
o Predict a variety of economic indicators, like money supply, inflation rates, interest rates,
etc.
- Technological forecasts
o Predict rates of technological progress and innovation.
- Demand forecasts
o Predict the future demand for a company’s products or services.
Since virtually all the operations management decisions (in both the strategic category and the tactical
category) require as input a good estimate of future demand, this is the type of forecasting that is
emphasized in our textbook and in this course.
Qualitative methods: These types of forecasting methods are based on judgments, opinions, intuition,
emotions, or personal experiences and are subjective in nature. They do not rely on any rigorous
mathematical computations
Quantitative methods: These types of forecasting methods are based on mathematical (quantitative)
models, and are objective in nature. They rely heavily on mathematical computations.
QUALITATIVE FORECASTING
METHODS
Qualitative Methods
Approach in which
each salesperson
Approach in which Approach that Approach in which
estimates sales in
a group of uses interviews consensus
QUANTITATIVE FORECASTING
METHODS
Quantitative Methods
10
DECOMPOSITION OF A TIME SERIES
Seasonality: Data exhibit upward and downward swings in a short to intermediate time frame (most notably
during a year).
Cycles: Data exhibit upward and downward swings in over a very long time frame.
Random variations: Erratic and unpredictable variation in the data over time with no discernable pattern.
Demand of an item is termed as independent when it remains unaffected by the demand for any other item.
On the other hand, when the demand of one item is linked to the demand for another item, demand is termed
as dependent. It is important to mention that only independent demand needs forecasting. Dependent demand
11
can be derived from the demand of independent item to which it is linked.
12
or some combination of these patterns. The forecaster tries to understand the reasons for such changes, such
as,
Changes that have occurred as a result of general tendency of the data to increase or
decrease, known as secular movements.
Changes that have taken place during a period of 12 months as a result in changes in climate,
weather conditions, festivals etc. are called as seasonal changes.
Changes that have taken place as a result of booms and depressions are called as cyclical
variations.
Changes that have taken place as a result of such forces that could not be predicted (like flood,
earthquake etc.) are called as irregular or erratic variations.
Most of the quantitative techniques calculate demand forecast as an average from the past demand. The
following are the important demand forecasting techniques.
Simple average method: A simple average of demands occurring in all previous time periods is
taken as the demand forecast for the next time period in this method. ( Example 1 )
Example 1
13
Simple Average :
A XYZ television supplier found a demand of 200 sets in July, 225 sets in August & 245 sets in
September. Find the demand forecast for the month of october using simple average method.
The average demand for the month of October is
14
Simple moving average method: In this method, the average of the demands from several of the
most recent periods is taken as the demand forecast for the next time period. The number of past
periods to be used in calculations is selected in the beginning and is kept constant (such as 3-period
moving average). (Example 2 )
Month Demand
February 20
March 30
April 40
May 60
June 45
Find out the demand forecast for the month of July using five-period moving average & three-
period moving average using simple moving average method.
Weighted moving average method: In this method, unequal weights are assigned to the past
demand data while calculating simple moving average as the demand forecast for next time period.
Usually most recent data is assigned the highest weight factor. (Example 3 )
15
Example 3
Weighted Moving Average Method :
The manager of a restaurant wants to make decision on inventory and overall cost. He wants to
forecast demand for some of the items based on weighted moving average method. For the past three
months he exprienced a demand for pizzas as follows:
16
Month Demand
October 400
November 480
December 550
Find the demand for the month of January by assuming suitable weights to demand data.
Exponential smoothing method: In this method, weights are assigned in exponential order. The
weights decrease exponentially from most recent demand data to older demand data. (Example 4 )
Example 4
Exponential Smoothing :
One of the two wheeler manufacturing company exprienced irregular but usually increasing demand
for three products. The demand was found to be 420 bikes for June and 440 bikes for July. They use a
forecasting method which takes average of past year to forecast future demand. Using the simple
average method demand forecast for June is found as 320 bikes (Use a smoothing coefficient 0.7 to
weight the recent demand most heavily) and find the demand forecast for August.
Regression analysis method: In this method, past demand data is used to establish a functional
17
relationship between two variables. One variable is known or assumed to be known; and used to
forecast the value of other unknown variable (i.e. demand). (Example 5 )
Example 5
18
Regression Analysis :
Farewell Corporation manufactures Integrated Circuit boards(I.C board) for electronics devices. The
planning department knows that the sales of their client goods depends on how much they spend on
advertising, on account of which they receive in advance of expenditure. The planning department
wish to find out the relationship between their clients advertising and sales, so as to find demand for
I.C board.
The money spend by the client on advertising and sales (in dollar) is given for different periods in
following table :
Advertising
Sales (Dt)
(Xt) 2 2
Period(t) Dt Xt XtDt
$(1,000.000)
$(1,00,000)
1 20 6 36 400 120
2 25 8 64 625 200
3 15 7 49 225 105
4 18 7 49 324 126
5 22 8 64 484 176
6 25 9 81 625 225
7 27 10 100 729 270
8 23 7 49 529 161
9 16 6 36 256 96
10 20 8 64 400 120
211 76 592 4597 1599
Error in Forecasting
19
Error in forecasting is nothing but the numeric difference in the forecasted demand and actual demand.
MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) and Bias are two measures that are used to assess the accuracy of the
forecasted demand. It may be noted that MAD expresses the magnitude but not the direction of the error.
20
21
INVENTORY
Introduction
The amount of material, a company has in stock at a specific time is known as inventory or in terms of
money it can be defined as the total capital investment over all the materials stocked in the company at any
specific time. Inventory may be in the form of,
As a lot of money is engaged in the inventories along with their high carrying costs, companies cannot afford
to have any money tied in excess inventories. Any excessive investment in inventories may prove to be a
serious drag on the successful working of an organization. Thus there is a need to manage our inventories
more effectively to free the excessive amount of capital engaged in the materials.
Why Inventories?
Inventories are needed because demand and supply can not be matched for physical and economical reasons.
There are several other reasons for carrying inventories in any organization.
To safe guard against the uncertainties in price fluctuations, supply conditions, demand
conditions, lead times, transport contingencies etc.
To reduce machine idle times by providing enough in-process inventories at appropriate
locations.
To take advantages of quantity discounts, economy of scale in transportation etc.
To decouple operations i.e. to make one operation's supply independent of another's supply. This
helps in minimizing the impact of break downs, shortages etc. on the performance of the downstream
operations. Moreover operations can be scheduled independent of each other if operations are
decoupled.
To reduce the material handling cost of semi-finished products by moving them in large
quantities between operations.
To reduce clerical cost associated with order preparation, order procurement etc.
22
Inventory Costs
In order to control inventories appropriately, one has to consider all cost elements that are associated with the
inventories. There are four such cost elements, which do affect cost of inventory.
Unit cost: it is usually the purchase price of the item under consideration. If unit cost is related
with the purchase quantity, it is called as discount price.
Procurement costs: This includes the cost of order preparation, tender placement, cost of
postages, telephone costs, receiving costs, set up cost etc.
23
Carrying costs: This represents the cost of maintaining inventories in the plant. It includes the cost of
insurance, security, warehouse rent, taxes, interest on capital engaged, spoilage, breakage etc.
Stockout costs: This represents the cost of loss of demand due to shortage in supplies. This
includes cost of loss of profit, loss of customer, loss of goodwill, penalty etc.
If one year planning horizon is used, the total annual cost of inventory can be expressed as:
Lead time
24
Number of orders per year
= Total
procurement cost per year
= S.D / Q
Total carrying cost per year = Carrying cost per unit * unit cost * average inventory per cycle
25
Cost of items per year = Annual demand * unit cost
= D.C
The objective of inventory management team is to minimize the total annual inventory cost. A simplified
graphical presentation in which cost of items, procurement cost and carrying cost are depicted is shown in
Figure 1 . It can be seen that large values of order quantity Q result in large carrying cost. Similarly, when
order quantity Q is large, fewer orders will be placed and procurement cost will decrease accordingly. The
total cost curve indicates that the minimum cost point lies at the intersection of carrying cost and procurement
cost curves.
26
Inventory Operating Doctrine
When managing inventories, operations manager has to make two important decisions:
27
Reorder point is usually a predetermined inventory level, which signals the operations manager to start the
procurement process for the next order. Order quantity is the order size.
Inventory Modelling
This is a quantitative approach for deriving the minimum cost model for the inventory problem in hand.
This model is applied when objective is to minimize the total annual cost of inventory in the organization.
Economic order quantity is that size of the order which helps in attaining the above set objective. EOQ model
is applicable under the following conditions.
The total annual cost of the inventory (TC) is given by the following equation in EOQ model.
20
Figure 2: Economic Order Quantity
Model (EOQ Model)
20
A numeric illustration of the EOQ model is given in example 1.
ABC manufacturers produces 1,25,000 oil seals each year to satisfy the requirement of their client. They
order the metal for the bushing in lot of 30,000 units. It cost them $40 to place the order. The unit cost of
bushing is $0.12 and the estimated carrying cost is 25% unit cost. Find out the economic order quantity?
What percentage of increases or decrease in order quantity is required so that the ordered quantity is
Economic order quantity ?
21
Economic Production Quantity (EPQ) Model
In EOQ model supply was instantaneous, which may not be the case in all industrial applications. If
supply of items is gradual to satisfy a continuous demand, then supply line will be depicted by a
slanted line (Figure 3 ). Figure 3 : Economic Production Quantity Model (EPQ Model)
22
In this situation, when the order is placed, the supplier begins producing the units and supplies them
continuously. While new units are added to inventory, other units are being used. Thus, if delivery rate (P) >
demand rate (D), the net result will be a net increase in the inventory level. The slope of replenishment line
will thus be (P-D). Simillarly the slope of demand line will be (-D). The average inventory carried per year
is
23
The XYZ Company produces wheat flour as one of their product. The wheat flour is produced in the pack of
1kg. The demand for wheat flour is 40,000 packs/year & the production rate is 50,000 packs/year. Wheat
flour 1kg pack cost $0.50 each to make. The Procurement cost is $5. The carrying
24
cost is high because the product gets spoiled in few week times span. It is nearly 50 percent of cost of one
pack. Find out the operating doctrine.
MRP
Introduction
It was discussed in demand forecasting that in the dependent demand situation, if the demand for an item is
known, the demand for other related items can be deduced. For example, if the demand of an automobile is
known, the demand of its sub assemblies and sub components can easily be deduced. For dependent demand
25
situations, normal reactive inventory control systems (i.e. EOQ etc.) are not suitable because they result in
high inventory costs and unreliable delivery schedules. More recently, managers have realized that inventory
planning systems (such as materials requirements planning) are better suited for dependent demand items.
MRP is a simple system of calculating arithmetically the requirements of the input materials at different
points of time based on actual production plan.
MRP can also be defined as a planning and scheduling system to meet time-phased materials requirements
for production operations. MRP always tries to meet the delivery schedule of end products as specified in
the master production schedule.
MRP Objectives
Reduction in Inventory Cost: By providing the right quantity of material at right time to meet
master production schedule, MRP tries to avoid the cost of excessive inventory.
26
Meeting Delivery Schedule: By minimizing the delays in materials procurement, production
decision making, MRP helps avoid delays in production thereby meeting delivery schedules more
consistently.
Improved Performance: By stream lining the production operations and minimizing the
unplanned interruptions, MRP focuses on having all components available at right place in right
quantity at right time.
MRP System
A simple sketch of an MRP system is shown in figure 1. It can be seen from the figure that an MRPsystem
has three major input components:
Figure 1: Material
Requirements Planning System
Architecture
Master Production Schedule (MPS): MPS is designed to meet the market demand (both the firm
orders and forecasted demand) in future in the taken planning horizon. MPS mainly depicts the
detailed delivery schedule of the end products. However, orders for replacement components can also
27
be included in it to make it more comprehensive.
Bill of Materials (BOM) File: BOM represents the product structure. It encompasses information
about all sub components needed, their quantity, and their sequence of buildup in the end product.
Information about the work centers performing buildup operations is also included in it.
Inventory Status File: Inventory status file keeps an up-to-date record of each item in the
inventory. Information such as, item identification number, quantity on hand, safety stock level,
quantity already allocated and the procurement lead time of each item is recorded in this file.
After getting input from these sources, MRP logic processes the available information and gives information
about the following:
28
Planned Orders Receipts: This is the order quantity of an item that is planned to be ordered so that
it is received at the beginning of the period under consideration to meet the net requirements of that
period. This order has not yet been placed and will be placed in future.
Planned Order Release: This is the order quantity of an item that is planned to be ordered in the
planned time period for this order that will ensure that the item is received when needed. Planned
order release is determined by offsetting the planned order receipt by procurement lead time of that
item.
Order Rescheduling: This highlight the need of any expediting, de-expediting, and
cancellation of open orders etc. in case of unexpected situations.
CPM
Project Management
A project is a well defined task which has a definable beginning and a definable end and requires one or
more resources for the completion of its constituent activities, which are interrelated and which must be
accomplished to achieve the objectives of the project. Project management is evolved to coordinate and
control all project activities in an efficient and cost effective manner. The salient features of a project are:
Network Techniques
The network techniques of project management have developed in an evolutionary way in many years. Up
to the end of 18th century, the decision making in general and project management in particular was intuitive
and depended primarily on managerial capabilities, experience, judgment and academic background of the
managers. It was only in the early of 1900's that the pioneers of scientific management, started developing
the scientific management techniques. The forerunner to network techniques, the Gantt chart was
developed, during world war I, by Henry L Gantt, for the purpose of production scheduling. An example of
Gantt chart is shown in Figure 1.
29
The Gantt chart was later modified to bar chart ( Figure 2 ), Figure 2: Bar Chart
which was used as an important tool in both the project and production scheduling. The bar charts, then
developed into milestone charts ( Figure 3 ), and next into network techniques (such as CPM and PERT).
30
Figure 3: Mile Stone Chart
31
Network Construction
A network is the graphical representation of the project activities arranged in a logical sequence and
depicting all the interrelationships among them. A network consists of activities and events.
Activity
An activity is a physically identifiable part of a project, which consumes both time and resources.
Activity is represented by an arrow in a network diagram ( Figure 4 ). Figure 4: Activity
32
The head of an arrow represents the start of activity and the tail of arrow represents its end. Activity
description and its estimated completion time are written along the arrow. An activity in the network can be
represented by a number of ways: (i) by numbers of its head and tail events (i.e. 10-20 etc.), and (ii) by a
letter code (i.e. A, B etc.). All those activities, which must be completed before the start of activity under
consideration, are called its predecessor activities. All those activities, which have to follow the activity under
consideration, are called its successor activities ( Figure 5 ). Figure 5: Activity Precedence
33
Activity Immediate Predecessor
A _
B A
C A
D B
E C
Activity Immediate Successor
A B,C
B D
C E
An activity, which is used to maintain the pre-defined precedence relationship only during the construction
of the project network, is called a dummy activity. Dummy activity is represented by a dotted arrow and
does not consume any time and resource ( Figure 6 ).
Event
34
An event represents the accomplishment of some task. In a network diagram, beginning and ending of an
activity are represented as events. Each event is represented as a node in a network diagram. An event does
not consume any time or resource. Each network diagram starts with an initial event and ends at a terminal
event. Each node is represented by a circle ( Figure 7) F
35
and numbered by using the Fulkerson's Rule. Following steps are involved in the numbering of the nodes:
The initial event, which has all outgoing arrows and no incoming arrow, is numbered as 1.
Delete all the arrows coming out from the node just numbered (i.e. 1). This step will create some
more nodes (at least one) into initial events. Number these events in ascending order (i.e. 2, 3 etc.).
Continue the process until the final or terminal node which has all arrows coming in, with no arrow
going out, is numbered.
As a recommendation it must be noted that most of the projects are liable for modifications, and hence there
should be a scope of adding more events and numbering them without causing any inconsistency in the
network. This is achieved by skipping the numbers (i.e. 10, 20, 30…).
37
Rule 3: Precedence relationships among all activities must always be maintained.
Rule 4: Dummy activities can be used to maintain precedence relationships only when actually
required. Their use should be minimized in the network diagram ( Figure 10 ).
The CPM (critical path method) system of networking is used, when the activity time estimates are
deterministic in nature. For each activity, a single value of time, required for its execution, is estimated. Time
estimates can easily be converted into cost data in this technique. CPM is an activity oriented technique.
The PERT (Project Evaluation and Review Technique) technique is used, when activity time estimates are
stochastic in nature. For each activity, three values of time (optimistic, most likely, pessimistic) are
estimated. Optimistic time (to) estimate is the shortest possible time required for the completion of activity.
Most likely time (tm) estimate is the time required for the completion of activity under normal circumstances.
Pessimistic time (tp) estimate is the longest possible time required for the completion of activity. In PERT β-
distribution is used to represent these three time estimates (Figure 12).
As PERT activities are full of uncertainties, times estimates can not easily be converted in to cost data.
PERT is an event oriented technique. In PERT expected time of an activity is determined by using the
below given formula:
32
Calculations in Network Analysis
The following calculations are required in network analysis in order to prepare a schedule of the project.
Symbol Description
34
(EFT)ij Earliest finishing time of activity (i,j)
Event slack is defined as the difference between the latest event and earlist event times. Slack for
head event = Lj - Ej
The calculations for the above taken example network are summarised below in the table.
36
30 40 8 30 38 35 43 -
35 45 10 40 50 40 50 0
40 45 7 38 45 43 50 5
The Expected Time of a chain of activities in series, is the sum of their expected times. Similarly the variance
of the path, is the sum of variances of activities on the path. In Figure below, three activities A,B and C are
connected in series, (i.e. form a path). Their time estimates to-tm-tpare given along the activity arrows. The
expected time of the path 1-2-3-4 is calculated as:
37
As the length of the path ,that is the number of activies connected in series increases,the variance of the path
and hence the uncertainty of meeting the expected time also increases.
38
An Example
In the network of figure below, the PERT time estimates of the activities are written along the activity arrows
in the order to-tm-tp. Compute the expected time and variance for each activity. Also compute the expected
duration and standard deviation for the following paths of the network.
(a) 10-20-50-80-90
(b) 10-30-50-70-90
(c) 10-40-60-80-90
The computation of expected times and variances for different activities are carried in a table given below.
i j to tm tp tE σ2
10 20 6 9 12 9.00 1.00
10 30 3 5 9 5.33 1.00
10 40 10 14 18 14.00 1.78
20 50 7 10 13 10.00 1.00
39
20 70 3 4 8 4.5 0.69
30 50 4 10 12 9.33 1.78
40 50 8 11 14 11.00 1.00
40 60 5 10 15 10.00 2.78
50 70 3 4 5 4.00 0.11
50 80 11 15 17 14.67 1.00
40
60 80 7 9 12 9.17 0.69
70 90 4 8 10 7.67 1.00
80 90 6 7 9 7.17 0.25
3. PRODUCTION PLANNING
3.1 THE PURPOSE OF DATA SHEETS
It is obvious that the elimination of waste or overloading of any of the
resource industry, including materials, machines, methods and money as well as manpower
depending on appropriate planning of the use of available resources and their efficient 41
control during production phase, selling and their after related activated. Planning and
control are essential activities to the rapid expansion of industry and employment.
Control requires a particular pattern of activities to operate properly in a
dynamic and imperfect world. It is difficult to improve because the behaviour of pattern of
events difficult to understand and also because control have the emotional overtones
associated with love of power and fear of being dominated. Therefore, it is essential to have
a transferable for objectives analysis, as otherwise subjective emotions will present clear
thinking on the desirable use of Techniques. It is for this reason that specific Data sheets are
reputed to introduce a diagrammatic rotation for recording and studying planning and control
inspection to shows that without such a representation any decision and discussion of control
is obsortive.
The Data Sheets thus aims at establishing a framework for the study and
important of planning and Control so that working group which comprises of senior
management technicians, supervisor, foremen, trade unionist, operations etc. have a common
termination and set of ideas with which to analyse and discuss problems and install fruitful
improvement.
42
Produ ction P l anning And Con trol 43
Purpose :-
1. To pass information to everyone concerned.
2. To authorise.
3. To start the control system.
4. To provide basis data for evaluation of performance like schedule, quality and cost wise.
Process charts :-
A process charts shows all the operation and the inspections of the process
or procedure in their time sequence and the material or parts entering the process. The
process chart is usually drawn at the commencement of the investigation, because fact
finding should proceed from examination of the whole factory.
ASME STD No.101, distinguishes between two types of process charts.
1. Operation process charts – Which constitute a general layout showing the principle
operations and inspections, as well as the points at which the materials enters the process.
2. Flow process charts – Which represents a more detailed picture, describing the activities
associated with materials, men or machines and which record the sequence of operations,
transportations, inspections delays and storages that occur.
2. Detailed can be recorded on the chart in the factory when the job is observed, so that the
chart relatives the mind of carrying.
3. It forces the analysis of work to be made in a quick and logical fashion according to (i) the
sequence in which the work is done (ii) the materials or things which do the work (iii) the
type of work done (iv) The relationship between several production flaws.
4. It is used to explain proposals for rationalising work and improving methods to the parties
concerned.
45
Produ ction P l anning And Con trol 45
A - assembly operation
Op - Refers to one of the operation
47
46 Pro du ctio n P l a n n in g And C o n tro l
Skilled & specialized team will not start the work on all units concurrently
but the work is phased out suitably to utilized the capacity of machines and team to the
optimum.
49
Produ ction P l anning And Con trol 47
sequence and schedule and prior commitment should be reviewed, delay in supply, break
down in machine changes in market forecast on market demand and future (demand) trend in
sales, all these will after on schedule and its review in inevitable to achieve the maximum
profit level.
51
48 Pro du ctio n P l a n n in g And C o n tro l
Q1 = ap Tp = ac Tp ----------- (1)
TP ac
V
----------- (2)
Tc ap
V is ratio which measure the amount of time spend on one product during
cycle. When V = Q3 no production is required or no time is required for production and is a
problem of inventory only. In such orders given by stores are to be executed.
Now the fact is that the consumption is continuous and when the production
will resumes, the stock will not be available to feed the customer and supply from store will
be stopped unless production starts promptly. Therefore intimation is to be given for
production well ahead the stock becomes zero. The safety margin of stock should be
determined in such a way that stock will start building up to a pre-determined level at the
completion of the production period.
53
Produ ction P l anning And Con trol 49
Qu ac
V (4 )
Q ap
As mentioned above, the actual stock level at which the order for production
is given is higher than Qu and from equation.
Tp ac V it can be show that
Te ap
Qu Tp Td Td (5)
1
Q Tp Tp
u
If the delay period is negligible compared with the production period, the
stock order point will be same, as the safely stock Qu
A buffer stock is required to take care of possible stops or breakdowns in
continuous production, whereas in batch production, the stock of each product have
inevitably to be raised to a predetermined value prior to commencement of production of
other items to low stock level will result into small batch and high set up cost/piece and high
set up /piece from production point of view, high stock level is more desirable which lead
to have carrying cost in the form of interest charges on capital investment, storage
maintenance deterioration & breakage cost, the main factors affecting the selection of batch
sizes to be summarised as under –
1) Consumption rate – ac
2) Production rate – ap
3) Set up cost of machines and sundry expenses to start run, s
4) Interest charges/piece/unit time
5) Average cost of storage including maintenance of stock, deterioration and breakages
6) Sales price – y
7) Production cost/piece – y
55
50 Pro du ctio n P l a n n in g And C o n tro l
product at minimum cost, other factors will be responsible to compute the optimum size.
The following four criteria will decide the policy for the selection of batch size.
1) Minimum production cost/piece
2) Maximum profit for a batch
3) Maximum ration of profit/cost of production (maximum return)
4) Maximum rate of return/unit time
1Q Qu
1 Q
2 ac
1
2 ac Q (1y )
56
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S
Y C 1
Q 2ae Q (1y ) BQ
ae
Q
2ae
S
C { I(1y ) 2B } (6)
Q
S
Y C KQ
Q
(8)
1( 1 y ) 2B
Where K =
2ae
= Carrying Cost
Equation (8) is having linear term for carrying cost k, and hyperbolic term
for preparation cost as the only variable features of the function. Therefore, claim or high
accuracy is hardly justified. Moreover the batch production is a dynamic affair and
circumstances may rapidly change.
Thus Y = C + Total annual variable cost (TAVC)
dy S
O - - K
d Qm
Qm2
or Qm S - (9)
K 2acs
1(1v ) 2B
S (10)
or K Qm
Qm
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That is total carrying costs per piece and the preparation cost per piece are
equal, When Qm is produced, intersection of the two variable cost curves represents
minimum cost/piece i.e., two terms of variable costs are equal at Qm. Once the values of S
& K have determined the curve of two variables are plotted to locate Qm at the point of
intersection which is more definable than the determination of minimum point on the
shallow portion of curve.
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- C 2 KQm
C
INVENTORY FORMULA
When production period, Tp is either relatively short,
2 a cS
QM =
12B
9(b)
RAYMOND FORMULA
Late Raymond studied the effect of variables on batch size determination.
He concerned with the effect by dividing a batch into number of lots and the time involved
in waiting between operation. His simplified formula published in 1930 is as under –
2 ac S
QM = 2k 2b 1
1
1 w 1-
1 2F V 1 V
N
A h N
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1
( L O )
C = Cost of piece in progress = m +
2
C 2 C
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Q1 Qm Q11
Batch size
THE PRODUCTION RANGE
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Y C (y c)
(y c)
C (y c)
m
(ym c)
C
P(ym c)
S KQm
P
C Qm
2S p
Qm
C
substitute in (15 )
Ym C and
S / Q KQ 1 S Q
p
2KQm 2 KQQm Qm
1 Qm2 s
Q
pm
(18 )
2 Q Qm 2 q
1 q 2
or 2p
or q2 2 pq 1 0
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or q p p 2 1 (19)
or QI Qm p
p 2 1
and QII
Qm
p p 2 1
(20)
Equation (19) is a non-dimensional expression the tolerance on the
production rate using dependant on the allowable increase in variable cost e.g.
When
P Q1 Q11
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1 1
1.01 .808 -13.2% 1.152 +15.2%
1.05 -27% +37%
-36% +50%
cons tan t
In earlier analysis c is neglected. But if, the ratio cost per piece is
var iable
KQm
considered, the effect of p on y will be reflected. Hence the ratio is defined for a
C
particular under given circumstances, then
C C
KQm
S / Qm
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Y 2p
Or 1
C u
(22)
Ym 2
Or 1
C u
(23)
Increase in costs
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2
y 1 2 p 1
c u u
2 p 1
( p 1 ) or
u
( 1 / 2 )u
y 1
or c( p 1 )
c(1 2/u)
Ym ( 1 / 2 )u
p 1
(24)
( 1 / 2 )u 1
When the ratio u is large, the slight increase in p is unlikely to cause a noticeable
change in y, total production cost, thus caving room for a wide production range to be
defined, while when the ration u is small, the reverse is the case. The graph stating the
relation between and u with p as a parameter is plotted as shown.
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S 1
Or C KQ d
Q 1 ( CQ S
dQ KQ ) 0
S 1
Or C KQ
1
Q
( 2QK C ) 0
S KQ 1
Or
Q 2 KQp 0
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S Q
Qp 1
2kQ 1 2
Qm 2 Q1
2Q1 2
Qm
2 Qm Q
1
1
Qp Qmp1 Q Qm
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or p 1 Qp q (27)
Qm
as p1 & 1 and therefore batch are giving maximum profit is larger than Qm
Conclusion :-
1) Batch size should be more than Qm to obtain maximum profit. Constant cost content is
relatively high.
2) Set up time per piece is to be reduced.
3) Schedule become smooth and un –interpreted for a long time during which production
methods are improved to save labour cost, materials and overhead.
4) If the methods are not improved or is not subjected to change, the higher production cost
per piece will be incurred for Qp.
5) If pricing policy is not fix, Qp is not desirable.
6) Due to length stocking, turnover shows down of capital.
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Y
1 1
(28)
Y
p p
1
p ( 1 / 2 ) u
max
1 1 / 2 u
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KQm
efficiency index=
max
p 1 p
1 1 / 2 u
(30)
p 1 / 2 u p 1 1
When is active return with max return when batch of Q is produced. The will
be affected by p, p1 and u. Out of which is more sensitive to (p1-p)
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The time factor is of great importance hen turnover of the capital is considered. It
would be desirable to achieve the same return, in a short period. A high rate of return can be
achieved only if stock level is kept to minimum and replenished by small batch quantity.
This batch size is termed as economic batch size which yield maximum rate of return and is
much smaller than, Qm, minimum cost batch.
Brief out the maximum rate of return and the empirical method suggested by FE
Raymond and P1 Norton to compute Qe,
The smaller batch will entail higher production cost per piece, but this will require
for less capital. Raymond proceeded to find this method by using his formula for Qm.
Modified by introducing f1 instead of 1, Where the factor f proper conservation of capital as
he put it, the value of f as suggested by Raymond is
f ( f / i )2
f 1 2
Qe =
( r i ) C 2B 1
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In practice the fixed sales price is difficult to maintain and it depends on the
following conditions.
i) Conditions prevailing in the market.
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1
1 Y
1 ( 31)
Y
Tc
Q
Tc
From equation (1)
, then
ac
ac Y1
R =
Q Y 1
d Y 1 1
ac O
Or -
dQ Qy Q
y1 d
or ( yQ ) y 2
dQ (32)
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d ( YQ ) S
Now d C KQ Q from equation ( 8 )
dQ Q
d CQ S KQ 2
C 2 KQ
S
or y 1 ( C 2KQ ) ( C KQ )2
S 2 CS
or C 2 2 K 2 Q 2 2 SK 2 CKQ
y 1C 2KY 1 Q
Q2 Q
Qc Qc
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Multiply by Qe 2
(33)
K 2 Qe 4 ( PKQm ) 4KQe 3 ( 2SK ) ( 2 p 1 KQm )e Qe 2 2CSQe S 2 O
Divide throughout by K 2 Qm4
4 1 4 4 2 1 2
Substitute
q Qe , u
C
Qm
Then, KQm
1
S 1
q 4 4 p 1 q 3 2 1 P C 2 S q 1 O
q 2u
Qm2 KQm K Qm2
K
2 (q 2
2 1 / q 2 2u / q )
2
or p 1 q 2q 2q u
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2 2
( 2 p ) 2u / q 4 p q 2u
p 1
2( 2q u ) 2q( 2q u )
2 p 2 q u
p 1
q( 2q u )
or u( p 1 q 1 ) 0
or q 1 - - - - - - - - - - - (36)
p1
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when u = 0
2 p 1 q 2 2 p 2 q O
p
or q 2 - - - - - - - - - - - (37)
p1
Therefore, the solution for q lies between the value obtained by equation (36) and
(37) and, Qe = q Qm
Example
The minimum cost batch size is known to be 2000 pieces. Find Economics batch
size when sales price yields a factor 1
p 1.4
Solution:
Step 1 Step II Step III
1 ( 0.8 1 )
1 1.025
q 1 0.71
1.1 2 0.8
p1
1
p ( q 1 )
2
1 .75 1
- 1.04
1 1 ) 2 .75
1 (.71 1 ) ( 0.8 1.025
1.06
2 .71 2 0.8
Corrected Value
2 2 2
( 1.04 )2
p 0.77
q ( 1.06 ) 0.8 ( 1.025 ) 0.75 1.4
1
p 1.4
1.4
This shows that the real value of q lies between 0.71 depending on the magnitude of u, if
u is high – q will be nearer to 0.71, u is small to 0.77
Take q = 0.73, Qc = q, Qm = 0.73 2000 = 1460 pieces
Another method for finding out Qc is to plot a graph between p1 and q with u as
parameter. The curve will be non-dimensional lies between two limits where
u o2 u is
important, since it reflects on Qm, when selling price increases.
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economic batch size, both because q becomes smaller, owing to reduction in u and because
Qm is smaller.
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It is interesting to study the variations in rate of return when a batch size is selected
convenient basis for comparison would be Qm
n n When Qm is produced
R ae,
Q
Te
nm
Rm ac
Qm
Hence n 1
R n Qm
(38)
Rm nm Q nm q
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Produ ction P l anning And Con trol 65
n
As 1, it is clear that the batches larger than Qm will adversely affect the rate of return.
nm
FEATURES :-
1] Less capital is tied up.
2] The cost function is steep and far more sensitive to batch size
3] Production time is reduced and does not imply to improve the production technique as in
case of long runs. Set uptime increases. Non productive time increases.
q p y Qy y 1 y R
y 1 y
Qy
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66 Pro du ctio n P l an n in g And C o n tro l
1. (i) Show that when a batch Q is produced, the ratio of profit to that which
might result, if Qm were produced is
Z p 1 p
,q
Z mm p 1 p
Solution :-
Z
Q ( y 1 y ) Qm ( y 1 ym )
Z min
Z Q y1 y y 1 ( C 2kQmp )
Qm q y 1 ( C 2kQm )
Zm
y 1 ym
y 1 c
y m c
p 1 ( y c ) 2KQm.p
m
Z q
or
Zm p 1 ( y m c ) 2KQm
2KQm P
p1
( y m c )
or q
2KQm
p1 -
( Ym c )
Z
or p 1 p (i)
q
Zm p 1 1
increase of 6% of the variable costs above the minimum. What increase of total cost.
Solution :
I Method II Method
K 1.06 Km
Y C
P
C y 4 C 2K Qm Ym C 1.06 ,
KQm
The increase in the production
4 2 is given by
P 1
0.12 0.12
1
100 2%
50
dQ
S
y
Q KQ
Hence Substitute in ( 32 )
S
Y 1 Y
KQ Y
2
Q
S
or Y Y KQ Y 2
r
Q
Since y r
y it follows that
S
KQe
Qe
KQm
S
Qm
S S
or , KQ for Q Qm and KQ for Q QM
Q Q
Hence Pr oved .
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4. MACHINE CAPACITY
INTRODUCTION
The industrial revolution resolved in to the major changes in the technical conditions
of production processes, established with the physical capacity of the operators. Earlier,
there were flexible relationship between attendant and his machines. Mass scale production
cultivate the structure of jobs and the related work processes. The proper division of work,
machines, processes etc. has come into picture to measure the rating of production and
productivity concept has been conceived.
The idle time means the unproductive period and naturally the relation of attendant
with machine has to synchronized to achieve the maximum output. The exercise of machine
loading is to be excentated for fixing up the quantities of product to be undertaken for
manufacturing, by observing the definite quantity of orders or by computing batch size. To
accomplish the task the basic data like.
the capacity of the machines. This information will be separately carries on machine loading
card individually, indicating the condition and capabilities with main specifications of
machine, the prior commitment etc.
This chapter deals with the work analysis of operator with machines i.e. The
relationship between productivity and nonproductive time, the assessment time, the
assessment of the processes, process or machine capacity, the relationship between machine
capacity and plant capacity, the factors impeding the machine output etc.
60
Or Qm , number of units produced hour ------------- (1)
T
m
2
Say, the inspection activity can be diverted to some-other supervisor, then the cycle
time can be shortened by 0.6 minutes to 1.4 minutes, and the theoretical output
70 Pro du ctio n P l a n n in g And C o n tro l
60
Q 42.8 units per minutes. Now further curtailing of process cycle time is only
m
1.4
i) Using better gigs for feeding, loading, setting, inspection etc. or better methods.
ii) Starting the machine operation and then performing the preparatory task.
iii) Using automatic unloading systems.
In spite of all above exercise, in actual practice, the output tends to fall down below
the theoretical output, QTh due to various things like delays between cycles, necessary
adjustment, repairs, sudden breakdowns, improper too and tacklets failures in power supply
etc.
Therefore,
Produ ction P l anning And Con trol 71
But during the case of not perfect matching i.e. when n, is not an integer and we
have to select either (n) or (n + 1) m/cs where n < n1 <n + 1 and the choice between n and
n+1 machines would be governed by cost analysis of the operation.
Co = Cost of labour per operator hr.
Cm = Cost per m/c per hr.
n = ng of m/s selected
Total cost per hr. = Co + n Cm
72 Pro du ctio n P l a n n in g And C o n tro l
60
Output per m/c, Q = , units per hr.
a t
Co n Cm
60 n
( a t )
Or Y
Co n Cm Co ncm
T ( a t ) Cm T
Cm 60n
n 60n
60n
60n
Co labour cos t per hour
Let
Cm m / c Cost per hr.
Then Yn Cm (n ) T
60n
Where, Yn is the cost per unit when n m/cs are chosen and E = Co/Cm, is the ratio
between labour and machine running costs.
When (n + 1) machines are chosen, the total costs of the operation is Co + (n + 1)
Cm. Now, the cycle time is (n + 1) a since the operator is fully occupied and the machine
have to wait their turn until his services become available. The output per machine is
60/ (n +1)a, units per hr. and the costs per unit is therefore,
Co ( n 1 ) Cm
Y 1 a ( m 1 )
n 60 ( n 1 )
60 ( n 1 )
Co
Cm
Cm
Yn 1 a ( m 1 )
(n 1) Cm
60 ( n 1 ) 60 (n 1)
Cm
60 ( n 1 ) (n 1 ) a ( m 1 )
Cm
60 ( n 1 )
a 4
Cm
(n 1)
60
Cm 60
(n ) T
Yn 60n
Hence, Cm ( n 1 ) a
Yn 1
( n ) T
(n 1 ) n a
Let T
n1
n n1
Then, Yn ( 5 )
0.8
a 1.2 min
a 1.2
When (n + 1) machines are chosen, operator is fully busy and idle machine time exist.
im = (n +1) a -T/per each cycle
i m ( n 1 )a T
T T
a
( n 1 ) 1
T
( n 1 )
1
1
n
These two expressions can be methodically continue together into general equation.
i n
1
T n1 ( 6 )
if n n1 M/cs taken, i O, is the operator idle time
if n n1 m/cs are taken, i O, is the machine idle time.
This can be represented on graph when n machines are assigned to operator, what
will be time, as under :-
Now all above analysis does not cover for so many noteworthy factures like :-
i) Inspection of machine
ii) Inspection of the product
Produ ction P l anning And Con trol 75
iii) Subsequent work for product like removing machine marks polishing, greaging matching
or assembling several components.
iv) Talking
v) Movement of product from machine of production centre and again to machine.
vi) Personal allowances like relaxation etc.
3] Machine interference :- When practicing the cycle time due to random changers,
machine will interface with each other. All above allowances will increase the independent
time & output will be hampered to great extent.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011 12 1314 15
a t
n ( 7 )
a b
60
Output per machine, Q = Unit / per hr.
( b a ) t
Co n Cm
a b t
Co n Cm
( n ) T ( 8 )
60 n
( n 1)( a b )
Produ ction P l anning And Con trol 77
( n 1 ) Cm
T
Co
60 ( n 1)
= Cm
Cm
60( n 1)
Cm
= (n 1)( n 1)( a b )
60 ( n 1)
Cm
(n 1)( a b ) ( 9 )
60
Cm
60
Yn (n ) T
Therefore, = Yn 1 60n Cm( C N 1)( a b )
( n ) T 1
=
(n 1) ( a b ) n
n n
=
n 1 n (10 )
a1 T1 a2 T2 a3 T3
or T1 Cycle time a1 a2
a3
To avoid operator idle time, i03 the attendance time of all machines should be greater
than work cycle time,
eg. a1 a2 a1 T
Hence, from above, to leave an perfect matching for ‘n’ number of non-identical
machine’s with single operator, we must have
T1 T2
........... Tn Tn
78 Pro du ctio n P l a n n in g And C o n tro l
where man and machines are dependent and awaiting for each other : is called
‘INTERFERING’ operator is interfering with machine due to his busy schedule for other
machine leads to the production rate. The attention time depends on the type of repair or
service invited.
Similar resemblances occur where ---
1. Operator
2. Customer buying stamps for sending parcel.
3. Number of aeroplanes tries to land on port.
4. Cargo ships waiting for berth.
5. Retailer is attending the customer more than one.
In each case mentioned above, where is a random arrival of customer inviting
attention at a time and therefore scheduling or Queue is required to form to avoid the bottle-
necking of work. In case of assignment or shouldering of a semi-automatic machine to
single operator, the interference increase not only with the number of machines but also with
the proportion of attention time received per cycle. Thus at increases interferences increases
and output starts reducing.
constant service time of operator is meaningless. Thus due to invalid justification for above
two assumptions, the Ashcroft tables becomes, incompatible.
In spite of all above, it has been found that the tables gives approximation in most of
the cases even satisfying the assumptions of Mr. II. Ashcroft.
Therefore, pre-summing random stoppages and failure or next stopping of machine
independence of last attention made by operator, the probability of smooth running of semi-
automatic machine over a period of t = -kt, where k is coefficient depending on number of
machines under a care of one operator.
In second case, if two semi-automatic machines are working under an operator,
output which one is running while another is being attended, the probability of machine to
continue.
a
= e p , Where p
The probability of stopping second machine = 1 – e-p, because the probability of two
independent events is unity. Here, the second machine must be either running or stopping,
the probability of the two events occurring has to be unity.
Now, Since the stopping of machine is Random and independence of time after last attention
ANCST
= x Situation 1 + Situation 2
= 1 + x 2 (1 – c-p )
Produ ction P l anning And Con trol 81
or x 2 = cp
Case 2 :- Where there are three machines under a care of single operator. In this case there
will total 4 number of situations as under .
Additional ANCST = Situation ( 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 )
x3 1 x2 (1e p )e p
(1e p )e p
x3
x 3 e3 p e p 1 ep (12)
( e p 1) ( e 2 p 1)
(13)
The ratio of service time to effective machine time was defined as p. But as a
machine stops m times per machine running hour, and each stop would necessitate hours
of immediate attention before it can again, therefore
p = m (12-14)
If the average number of running machines is An, the production of service time per hour is
AnP. Therefore
A n P X n
X n (I / mn)
or A n 1
p (I / X n ) (I / mn) p
1
A n
p (1 / nX n )
(12-15) and this is the formula on which the Ashroft tables are based, since Xn can be found
for any given n and p. Values for An are shown in fig.
Examples showing the effect of machine interference on output and efficiency.
3.8 Examples
1. A Machine shop has to produce 100,000. Components for which the following times have
been estimated.
Inserting place into machine - 0.3 minutes
Starting the machine and engaging feed lever - 0.1 minutes
Running time - 3.25 minutes
Unloading components - 0.2 minutes
Inspecting components - 0.35 minutes
The following cost figures were provided by the accounting department.
Produ ction P l anning And Con trol 83
(Summer – 1988)
5] A (i) Prove:-
An 1
P 1 / nX n
Where Xn = Average no, of Consecutive servieing task for n machines where each task last
for hrs.
P = m, where m are number of stops per hour per machines.
(ii) Show that when one machine is assigned to one operator, the column in the
Ashcroft. Table for n = 1, is obtained by
A1 1
1 P
(iii) Show that when n fully automatic machines are supervised by one operator with
random stoppages,
N
A
n
1P
3.9 EXERCISE :
1] What are the methods generally considered to reduce the cycle time to minimum?
2] Explain ‘Machine Output’
3] Elaborate various reasons behind reading the actual output compared to thereatical output.
4] What do you mean by ‘Machine Capacity’ which are those reasons involved in creating
quantities decrepancy between theorotical and actual output ?
5] Which are the methods to reduce the cycle time in the multimachine supervision by one
operator?
6] Explain machine interference during deterministic machine cycle.
7] Explain perfect matching in multimachine supervision.
8] Deduce Y:- Y
n
n'
Where = Co/Cm = La bour Cost / m/c Cost
n / n1
n 1 n
n’ = (a + t)a
a = No. of machines under a care of Operator.
Yn = Cost per unit when n machines are chosen.
9] Deduce :
Produ ction P l anning And Con trol 85
n n
Yn / Yn1 '
n Where n a t
n 1
a b
n n
If a special milling fixture is used the inserting and unloading time can be reduced to
1 minute and 0.4 minutes, respectively, the cost of one fixture is Rs. 800/-.
(i) If only one operator is employed on this job, there are nine possible combinations of
utilizing and one or two or three machines with or without fixtures. Find the costs per piece
incurred by each of these combinations and hence the one involving the lowest cost pieces.
(ii) Which combinations would you rule out from the practical point if view?
(Note – if F=m/c with fixture
W=m/c without fixture
Following are the Nine possible
F FF FFF W WW WWW
FW FFW FWW
The above six combinations given identical cycles whereas next three combinations are with
non-identical cycles.
18] A number of operators are performing the same task in a production centre, where the
same machine is used by each in turn.
The task includes:
Cheak and set the components - 0.65 minutes
Work with hand tools - 0.32 minutes
Assembly - 0.44 minutes
Walk to the machine - 0.04 minutes
Operate the machine - 0.3 minutes
Inspect before the next operations - 0.1 minutes
Operate the machine again - 0.15 minutes
Inspect the assembly - 0.04 minutes
Walk back to the bench - 0.04 minutes
Further operation by the hand tools - 1.14 minutes
Find inspection and packing - 0.46 minutes
Total cycle time - 3.68 minutes
Cost of machine - Rs. 1.7 per hour
Cost of labour - Rs. 3.8 per hour
(i) How many operators should be engaged in this production centre?
(ii) Draw a multicitivity charts for the centre what maximum output would you expect to
attain?
(iii) Find the production costs per piece for(i)
(iv) Would you expect operator’s interference?Why?
Produ ction P l anning And Con trol 87
(v) Would it be worthwhile allocating the final inspection and packing operation to one
man? Compare the costs per piece for this case with the figure you obtained in9ii).
(vi) Similarly, would it be worth allotting only the first task “Check and sit” to one operator?
(vii) Would you recommend combining plans (v) and (vi) what the costs analysis be in this
case?
Note: If you find any errors please bring to our notice so that they can be corrected
in next reprint.
5. Inventory control
ANALTICAL STRUCTURE :
Inventory theory hardly requires the explanation because
inventory immediately brings to our mind the stock of commodity. As per fred
Hanssman – An inventory is an idle resources of any kind, provided that such
resource has Economic value. In business activity, we often observe the safety
quantity requires in near future. Just like supermarkets are requested to cash pay
cheques for their customer. Therefore, we can include currency notes as a tangible
inventory. Similar analogous problems can be put forth like sales-girls requires
during peak hours. It can be further noted that whether tangible inventory, is having
virtually economic value.
Indirectly, inventory theory deals with the determination of the optimal level
of such an resources. Therefore, planning in advance of the level of the resource is the
subject if inventory theory.
1) Knowledge of demand:
88 Pro du ctio n P l a n n in g And C o n tro l
we require specific level of demand respect to time but the time when the decision of
inventory reaches, we know least about the future demand, which can be categories in 3
ways on the basis of possibilities.
1]exact future demand
2] probability distribution of future demand on the basis of past demand.
3] entirely ignorant of the likelihood of future demand.
Above are designed as inventory problems under
1] certainty 2] risk 3] uncertainty
with reference to our knowledge of future demand.
2) Procurement process
There are two types of methods of obtaining the commodity. One is outside supply
and second is self supply or self manufacturing item. There is always time-Lag between the
placement of order and the receipt of the material. In some cases, the time lag is constant
whereas, in other there is a probability distribution is a probability of possible time.
This distinction has fairly important consequences in the analysis of the inventory problems.
The inventory problems of self supplying commodity is more complex because they have to
consider the effect of its ordering policies and complete process of production.
5) Time – lag :-
There can be constant time lag or probability distribution of possible time lag in
receiving the material.
Produ ction P l anning And Con trol 89
TRANSACTION :-
Motive results even in case certainly too difficult to match perfectly the inflow and
outflow. Inventories are held to match the state due to lack of synchronization.
Precautionary Motive result for a kind of safety under the market of risk. Secondly
instantaneous delivey at the same cost.
CHARACTERISTICS :-
1) The distinguishing feature is that only one procurement order is possible.
2) The salvage value or overstock cost arises.
3) The ordering cost is a fixed for all courses of action, hence neglected.
AN ANALYTICAL APPROACH
Construct a pay off matrix for an inventory decision problems of Christmas tree for
sale by a small merchant during a season. The probability distribution of demand as under is
known to merchant. The meaning of 0.05 probability demand of one tree means the if the
same situation were repeated for a great many reasons we could expect that in 5% of the
seasons there would have been demand for only one tree.
92 Pro du ctio n P l a n n in g And C o n tro l
Demand Probability
Reasonable – Courses of action,
Strategies
1 0.05
2 0.15
3 0.2
4 0.4
5 0.1
6 0.1
------
1.00 (unity)
Becomes one of the probability must occur
PAY OF MATRIX
Demand 1 2 3 4 5 6 Expected
Z Ev. Valve
P 0.05 0.15 .2 .4. .1 .1
Order, x
1 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
2 2 7 7 7 7 7 6.75
Produ ction P l anning And Con trol 93
Expected value of pay off for each strategy can be computed by taking a multiplication of p
and condition profit or loss value for that combination of demand and strategy and
summation of all such multiplication e.g.
III Strategy, Ev = 0.05(0.5)+0.15(5.5)+0.2(10.5)+0.4(10.5)+0.1(10.5)+0.1(10.5)
= 9.25
The expected value of an event is its probability times the outcome or value of the Event
over a serious of Trials.
Now, if the same type inventory decision problems repeated, the advice go for 4 tree instend
of 5. But always it is not possible, Because
1) Different type of series of problems each time
2) Merchant may go for bankrupt, desirous to harness maximum profit.
Demand/z 1 2 3 4 5 6 Expected
94 Pro du ctio n P l a n n in g And C o n tro l
OC
Order 0.05 0.15 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1
X P
1 0 3.5 7 10.5 14 17.5 9.275
2 1.5 0 3.5 7 10.5 14 6.025
3 3 1.5 0 3.5 7 10.5 3.525
4 4.5 3 1.5 0 3.5 7 2.025
5 6 4.5 3 1.5 0 3.5 2.525
6 7.5 6 4.5 3 1.5 0 3.525
5. Above facts is not obvious in the analysis for pay off matrix but is high lighted by
O.C.matrix.
INCREMENTAL ANALYSIS
The explicit presentation of two opposing costs in the form of O.C. permit to analyse
this kind of problem, in much simple way by incremental analysis.
If the merchant makes series of decision like
Ordering 1 tree – not to order 1 tree
2 - 2
Until he decides not to order next tree
To analyse – say P ( Z = 3 ) = 0.2 i.e. Probability of demand equal to 0.2
When Z equals to three.
Similarly P ( Z > 3 ) = 0.8 P ( Z < 3) = 0.2
Suppose merchant reaches the ith decision that whether to order i th tree or not. There are
two probabilities, either there will be demand for ith tree or will not be.
The decision problem (Inventory) can be displaced in 2x2 O.C.matrix.
The probability is greater than 0.3. This can be immediately decided from the
probability distribution of demand.
Like
96 Pro du ctio n P l a n n in g And C o n tro l
Demand p( z = i) P ( z i)
1 0.05 1
2 0.15 0.95
3 0.2 0.8
4 0.4 0.6
5 0.1 0.2
6 0.1 0.1
COMPARISION :-
1. We can equally well analysis, the given inventory problem either in terms of a pay of
matrix or else in terms of cost matrix.
2. Analysis are equivalent and produce the same choice of a strategy.
3. Both analysis may mix together and will confuse because some entries will be in to of
total profit & cost and other entries in terms of opportunity costs.
4. Exactly same conclusion with less arithmetic
5. It is quite clear, that the opposing costs and their relation help to analysis the problem
The cost of Risk :-
EOC = K – EF, What is K ?
It is calculated by the largest entries in each column.
It is expected value of the pay off during best course of action.
This can be elaborated precisely as follows suppose, we are omniscient regarding the
inventory problem under consideration, then we know what exact level of demand will occur
and select the strategy accordingly.
Suppose, we are omnipotent, we can control the level of demand and arrange the
thing so that there would be demand for six trees. We will always stock 6 trees & will make
a profit of Rs.21, always.
But, since being omniscient, gives us no control but we will select the best strategy
resulting into
EF = 0.05 (3.5) + 0.15 (7) + 0.2 (10.5) + 0.4 (14) + .1 (17.5) + 1 (21)
= 12.775
Produ ction P l anning And Con trol 97
Here the main difference in Christmas tree inventory problem and this problem is
that here we are reasoning in terms of costs which should be as minimum as possible against
the maximising profits. In such cases O. C. matrix should be prepared only after
construction a matrix; as under
COST MATRIX
Order/Demand 0 1 2 3
0 0 1000 2000 3000
1 100 100 1100 2100
2 200 200 200 1200
3 300 300 300 300
O. C. MATRIX
Order/Demand 0 1 2 3
0 0 1000 2000 3000
98 Pro du ctio n P l a n n in g And C o n tro l
O.C. MATRIX
There are different kinds of inventory problem with great many possible level of
demand which cannot be explicitly presented in the pay off matrix. Therefore, pay off
matrix will be convenient by using incremental analysis. Further some problems do not hold
stock units like liquids which are basically continuous as compared to the discrete kinds of
problem discussed earlier. For these reasons, it is desirable to have a general formulation of
this know of inventory problems where some mathematical notation will be introduced,
keeping the logic of analysis same as earlier.
Let us presume that carrying cost is absent. Then the two opposing cost are Rs 100
stocking and Rs 1000 for understock.
C = Total cost of one unit.
Cu = Total cost of an under stock/unit
p (z j) pj probability, when demand z – j
j N
p (z j) = pi = pi
j O
i j 1
1 j 1
N pi =
p (z j) = pi
Where N L arg est possible demand
i Dummy of summation
i j i O
OR EFk = Fki
Pi - - - - - - - (1)
i 0
This takes two forms, depending on whether the amount ordered k, was less than on
greater than the demand level j.
We have
Fk1 = Ke if k = j
= Ke + (i – k) Cu if k < j
Substituting these expression in (1)
k
EFk =
Ke
i 0
i k 1
Ke k
N N N
- Kcu
= Pi + Ke Pi 1 Cu iPi Pi
i 0 i k 1 i k 1 i k 1
N
Pi
or EFk = Cu + iPi K Cu
i K 1 i k 1
This find out the specific strategy, which has the smallest expected total cost. If K
strategy has the smallest expected value, in particular, the two adjoining strategies (K+1) and
(K-1) have large total costs. Therefore expected total cost for these two strategies are
N i
And EFk+1 = (k – 1) C + Cu
ipi (k 1) Cu pi
i k i k
These two expected total costs, in terms of the expected total cost of k, will be
100 Pro du ctio n P l an n in g And C o n tro l
EFk+1 = EFk + c – Cu
Pi
i k 1
Thus, above relationship indicates that any strategy of ordering more than k + 1 or less than
k – 1 will produce still larger expected total cost. Because in case of K + 2, + ve terms
remains fixed and –ve terms gets smaller. Similarly in case of K-2, -ve terms remains fixed
and +ve terms gets larger. We have to find the K strategy; which is true if following holds
good.
N
EFk+1 – EFk = C - Cu Pi 0
i k i 1
N
Or Pi
Cu
C
i k 1
EFk-1 - EF1 = -C + Cu
Pi 0
i k
C
Or Pi Cu
i k
This is simultaneously true if and
N
N
C
Pi
Only if Cu Pi
i k i k 1
This is equivalent to
P (z k) > C > P (z k i 1) ------------ (2)
Cu
www.jntuworld.com
100
= 0.1
e.g. C / cu =
1000
Demand K. P (Z = E) P (Z = K)
0 0.3 1.0
1 0.4 0.7
2 0.2 0.3
3 0.1 0.1
In equation (2), the relationship is expressed in terms of inequalities but in this case,
relationship holds with equality because of the two strategies having same expected total
cost.
P (Z 2) > 0.1 = P (Z 3)
P (Z 3) = 0.1 > P (Z 4)
This conclude that the order for either 2 or 3 spare can be placed. Verify that in both the
strategies expected total cost is Rs. 300. Even by applying incremental O.C. analysis, on the
spare part problem, it shows that the last strategy for which P (Z j) should be selected.
Equation (2) can be represented by P (Z k) < Cu < P (Z K + 1)
C Cu
Then
K P (Z = K) P (Z K)
0 0.3 0.3
1 0.2 0.7
2 0.2 0.7
3 0.1 1.0
Then 10
Cu 1000 0.9
C Cu
100 1000 11
CHARACTERISTICS :-
1. This analysis and incremental analysis gives the considerable degree of similarities in
their conclusion.
2. This analysis is based on the total cost consideration where as incremental analysis was on
O.C. basis.
Pro du ctio n P l an n in g And C o n tro l
102
3. Comparison can be done, since, first analysis is based on total cost matrix and second on
profit matrix.
4. Equality and inequality for incremental analysis has the same effect as with this analysis.
5. Both yields the same result.
GENERAL COMMENTS :-
It is unlikely and all the time similar kind of inventory problems will occur. But
when such problem occur, the solution can be easily found out by analytical approach
provide relevant information is in hand.
The major problem is how to obtain the information concerning the probability
distribution of demand ? The time & cost of a study to determine the demand distribution
can offen exceed far, for complex inventory analysis. But when the demand distribution is
not know. We are no longer dealing with an inventory problem under risk, but with one
under uncertain.
Ex.1 A flower store in a small community must stock some orchids ( a kind of flower ) to be
sold as corsages for the high school pron. On the basis of past demand, the store own
estimates the probability distribution of demand to be
Demand 6 1 2 3 4 5
Probability .05 .1 .25 .35 .15 .1
Only one order can be placed. The orchids cost the store owner Rs 5 each and lie sells for
Rs 12.5 each. Delivery of a corsaqe cost Rs 0.5 for each one. Any orchids unsold after pron
are a total loss (i) Construct the pay off matrix and find out optimal order size ? Construct
O.C.matrix (iii) Use O.C.and incremental analysis to verify the solution. What is maximum
possible worth of additional information to the store owner.
What salvage value would justify an optimal strategy of ordering one more orchid
than found (i) ?
SOLUTION :
Z 0 1 2 3 4 5 EF
x p 0.5 1 .25 .35 .15 .1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 -5 7 7 7 7 7 6.4
2 -10 2 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 12.025
3 -15 -3 9.5 22 22 22 14.525
Produ ction P l anning And Control 103
O.C. MATRIX
Z 0 1 2 3 4 5 Expected
X p 0.5 0.1 0.25 .35 .45 .1 20.15
0 0 7 14.5 22 29.5 37 20.15
1 5 0 7.5 15 22.5 29.5 .13.7
2 10 5 0 7.5 15 22.5 8.125
3 15 10 5 0 7.5 15 4.725
4 20 15 10 5 0 7.5 7.5
5 25 20 15 10 5 0 .9.45
Max O.C is 4.725 for the –4th strategy. Thus 3 orchids should be ordered out.
INCREMENTAL ANALYSIS
Demand P (z = i) P (z i)
0 .05 1
1 .1 .95
2 25 .85
3 .35 .6
4 .15 .25
5 .1 .1
Hence P (Z 3) = 06 > 0.30
P (Z 4) = 0.25 < 0.30
There, 3, orchids should be ordered out.
EX.2
(a) A company is making a large boiler installation. A certain automatic monitoring unit
is crusial for the operation of the whole system. At the time of the original order spares for
this unit can be purchased for Rs 2000 each. The probability distribution for failures of this
unit during life time of the installation is know to be
Demand 0 1 2 3 4
p 35 25 2 15 .05
If the spare is needed and is not available the total cost to the company in down
time and replacement cost will be Rs.15000. Unused spare have no salvage value. What is
the total cost matrix and the optimal number of spares to be order? (b) what O.C.matrix 7(c)
What is maximum possible with of additional information 7(d) What is the mathematical
equation which describes this problem ?
Solution C = Rs 2000/- Ce = 0
Cu = Rs 15,000/- Salvage cost = 0
Cost Matrix ( Rs.
‘000)
4 8 8 8 8 8 8
0 1 2 3 4
0 0 13 26 39 52
1 2 0 13 26 49
2 4 2 0 13 26
3 6 4 2 0 13
4 8 6 4 2 0
(d) p (z k) > C/Cu > p (z + 1)
2
15
> 0133
Demand P (z = k) P (z k)
0 0.35 1.0
1 0.25 0.65
2 0.2 0.4
3 0.15 0.2
4 0.5 0.05
GENERAL CHARACTERISTICS
1. Only one order is to be executed
2. Probability of distribution of demand is unknown
3. The frequency and kind of problems are similar to static – risk cases
4. Cost consideration are equally same as in static – risk cases.
Pro du ctio n P l an n in g And C o n tro l
106
1. By Abraham Wald
Maximin criteria - Pay off matrix
Minimax criteria - Cost matrix
So select the maximum such minimum (Best of the worst) pay off strategy. In case
of cost matrix select a strategy yielding minimum amongst maximum pay off from above
maximum (Best of the Best) alternatives rule is evolved which is an optimistic the decision
maker. The idea of Abarham Wald is to act atmost conservation, assume worst possible
thing is going to happen to us and thus safeguard by selecting and which makes this
worst thing as good as possible.
2. By Leobnard Savage
He suggested regret theory and based on minimax regret. The alternative rule seeks
minimise the maximum regret that there would be from selecting a particular strategy. The
decision maker always regret himself that the could not select the best course of action
otherwise maximum profit would have achieved. Thus the degree of regret always tries to
reduce by specific pay off resulting from his selection. Regret matrix is nothing out the
opportunity matrix which is governed by decision maker as a desire to minimise this regret
which ultimately he will experience.
Say for example
O.C.MATRIX FOR
Strategy 1 0 3.5 7
2 1 0 3.5
3 3 1.5 0
Produ ction P l anning And Control 107
Strategy 1 7
2 3.5
3 3
So select minimum such maximum regret i.e. strategy I will selected.
3. By Thomas Bayes and P.S. Laplace There is acrimonious (Bitterness of language)
debate from so many years on this theory, since, we are ignorant about probability of all
levels of demand, author is recommending, equal probability occurrence and proceed to
solve problem as earlier done in static risk cases. In this theory, idea is to convert
uncertainly risk.
ARGUMENTS :-
1. Abraham wald theory select the lowest level of demand from pay off, where as from O.C.
matrix, if applied will be resulting highest level of demand.
2. Leanard J. Savage theory is good in practice because it is based on criteria of opportunity.
It suggest never to analyse pay off but O.C. will give decision on selection.
3. Thomas & Laplace theory pays equal weights to all strategy. However it will never end
up with selection of strategy.
CAB
A + 8 CBA
B + 12
C + 16 Ranking
Management has identified three possible strategies that company could adopt.
S1 = Issue 100,00 shares
S2 = Issue 100,000 Shares only after the outcomes of (a) & (b) are known.
S3 = Issue 50,000 Shares now and 50,000 Shares after the outcome of (a) and
(b) are known.
(i) Draw up a pay off table for the company and determine the minimax regret solution.
What alternative Criteria might be used ?
(ii) It has been estimated that the probability of a strike is 55% and 65% of chance of getting
the contract, these probabilities being independent. Determine the optimum policy for the
company using the criteria of maximising expected pay off.
(iii) Determine the EV of perfect information for the company and indicate how the
maximum expected pay off, the EV of perfect information and minimum expected
opportunity and minimum re-expected opportunity loss are related what use can the
company make of these values ?
SOLUTION :-
Pay off Table (Rs.‘000’)
OUTCOMES
Strategy E1 E2 E3 E4
S1 30 30 30 30
S2 34 30 32 16
S3 32 30 31 23
S3 row is obtained by
E1 E2 E3 E4
50 x 30 + 50 x 34 50 x 30 +50 x 32 50 x 30 + 50 x 10
= 32 30 31 = 23
From the pay off table, the regret can be obtained.
E1 E2 E3 E4 Max Regret
S1 4 0 2 0 4
S2 0 0 0 14 14
Pro du ctio n P l an n in g And C o n tro l
110
S3 2 0 1 7 7
(ii) Maximising expected pay off Probabilities of outcomes are not given directly but can be
easily calculated
E1 = .45 x .65 = 0.2925
E2 = .55 x.65= 0.3575
E3 = .45 x .35 = 0.1575
E4 = .55 x .35 = 0.1925
E1 E2 E3 E4 E5
2925 .3575 .1575 .1925
S1 30 40 30 30 30
S2 34 30 32 16 28.79
(iii) The EV of the (highest) perfect information is the difference between the expected pay
off of Rs.3 x 106 and the amount which would be achieved if outcomes were known in
advance. Thus
Max Pay Probability Expected pay off with perfect information
E1 34 .2925 9.94
E2 30 .3578 10.72
E3 32 1576 5.04
E4 30 .1925 5.78
------
31.48
Produ ction P l anning And Control 111
------
Ex. The Alpha Toys Ltd.is proposing to introduce to the market a radio controlled toy. It
has three different possible models x y z which vary in complexity but it has sufficient
capacity to manufacture only one model. An analysis of the probable acceptance of the
models has been carried out and resulting profit are estimated.
(i) Determine the model type which maximises the expected profit. What is the expect profit
?
(ii) Obtain an opportunity loss table as show that the difference between expected
opportunity losses is the same as the difference/between expected profits.
(iii) How much would it be worth to know the model acceptance level before making to
decision on which model type of produce.
(iv) Further market research trend to confirm the probability of 0.3 for the ‘Excellent’ Model
acceptance. However, the probabilities for moderate and poor are uncertain. But letting P
be the probability of a moderate model acceptance, determine the expected profits for each
model type as function of P. Hence, determine the range of value P for which model x is to
be preferred.
SOLUTION :-
(i) Pay off Table (Rs.’000)
Acceptance P Model
X Y Z
Excellent 0.3 120 100 60
112 Pro du ctio n P l an n in g And C o n tro l
Moderate 0.5 80 60 50
Poor 0.2 -30 -20 0
Expected Profit 70 56 43
Difference X Y X Z Y Z
Expected profit 14 27 13
EOL 14 27 13
(iii) If there is certain knowledge of the acceptance level the opportunity loss is zero as EOL
is Rs 6000 the value of having perfect information is Rs 6000 – 0
Rs 6000
(iv) This part of the question involves the use of sensitivity analysis i.e. discovering the
range of values for which x is to be preferred.
P (E) = 0.3
P (M) = P
P (P) 0.7 – P
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6. DYNAMIC MODELS
DYNAMIC MODELS UNDER CERTAINLY :
Dynamic models under certainly are ones which deals with dynamic inventory
problem where the level of demand of constant rate or variable rate over a period of time is
taken.
CHARACTERISTIC :-
called set up cost and if the items are purchase from subcontractors or outside parties, it will
be denoted be order cost (Cr.) The carrying cost (Cc) is denoted by % of tied up money in
inventory, for a period of time.
Suppose, we require to order Z items for a period of time. The frequency of
ordering can be changed from one to Z, Now, since carrying cost is the opposing cost to
ordering cost in this analysis, the behaviour of ordering cost w.r.t. ordering frequency is to
be studied under the policies of these two extreme ordering policies. This can be depied as
under –
Tc
Cost Cc
EOQ
Order Size
Say
Produ ction P l anning And Control 115
Z Cr
X X CCc
Total Cost, Tc = 2 ZC
d ( TC ) d ( ZCc ) d ( XCCc )
0
dx dx dx Z
Z Z Cc C Time, n, = Z/X0 = =
2 C Z Cr ,
in one year
Month, t =
12 12 X 0 144.2. Cr = 288 Cr
n Z
Z Cc C Z Cc C
In such endeavour, always reduce the number of ordering attempts and in many cases, the
number of orders are rounded off to whole number of t. The total cost written in terms of
months between order t.
TC1 = 12 Cr t Z C Cc
24
t
t d t 24
1 1 Z C C c d
12
C r
t d t
288 Cr
Substituting 12 = 288 Cr
Z C Cc
1
= 12 Cr 1 d
t d 1 t
1 d 1
= 12 Cr
(t d ) F
= 12 Cr
d2
t 2 (t d )
This indicates that + ve value of deviation in JC by rounding off adjacent while number of t
is always less costlier than –ve value
Similar, T Copt =
Z Cr Xo C Cc Z Cr C Cc
2 Z Cr
Xo 2 2 Z Cr 1
C Cc
C Cc
C Cc 2 Z Cr
Z Cr 2 Z Cr
2 C Cc
= 2 Z Cr
2 Z Cr
C Cc
= 2 Z Cr
C Cc
= 2 Z Cr C2Cc
Z Cr
There are many more situation where the E O Q concept has no value and there are
reason to calculate an EOQ when
1. The customer specific order Quantity
2. The production run lot is limited by Equipment capacity
3. The self life of the product itself is so short
4. The run length is limited by tool life
5. Raw material batches becomes predominant to fix up the order quantity
Produ ction P l anning And Control 117
QUANTITY DISCOUNT
In order to induce larger purchases, the supplier often offers a reduced price
provided order quantity is greater than specified minimum quantity. Such cases where
quantity discount are offered by the vender will be similar to the models like anticipated
price changes, various other kinds of limitation, quantity discount, price discount etc.
In case of discount, transportation cost is curtailed due to sufficient cost purchased
and dispatching. The inventory models are to be prepared and study the acceptance or
rejection of such discounts scheme.
There are three effects or characteristic of the discount problem on total Cost, TC
1. The reduction in unit cost, TC
2. The reduction in total procurement cost due to reduction in number of placement of
orders.
3. Change in carrying cost, Cc.
Thus the mathematical presentation will be on the above three effects and will
decide
under which circumstances the discount should be accepted.
Say, Z - Demand in period units
Xo - Optimal order size, units
d - discount
Kxo - Units required to get discount Where k > 1
Three will be 3 – changes in TC as listed above,
1. Z cd = Direct saving in Cost over the time unit
ZCr
2. = Ordering cost or set up cost
KX o
Z Cr C Cc K Cc C (1d )
C Cc + 2 Z Cr - Z Cd
K
2
2ZCr C Cc
Pro du ctio n P l an n in g And C o n tro l
118
Z Cr C Cc +
C Cc
2 Z Cr x
2 Z Cr 2
or 1 Z Cr Cc C Cc
K 2
+ K (1-d) Z Cr C Cc - Z C d
Z Cr C Cc Z Cr C Cc
+
2
2 2
2 Z Cr C Cc
1 2
or k (1d ) 2 Cr C Cc Z Cd
k Z Cr CCc
4 Z Cr C Cc + 2 Z Cd
Z Cr C Cc Cr Cc
2 + d 2ZC
Cr Cc
2 + d 2ZC
Cr Cc
Put Q = ZCZ
, for Convenience
Cr Cc
Then 1
k
K (1 d ) Q d 2
Or 1 + k2 (1-d) – Q dk – 2 k 0
Analogus (1-d) k2 – (2 + Qd) k + 1 0
2 (1 d )
We want k to be as large as possible, and the break even point for any, discount, is
given by deleting –ve valaue
2 (1d )
Thus for any given values of Cc and Cr, table can be prepared for breakeven value
of K.like Ce = 0.12 per year, Cr = Rs 10, we have
Breakeven value of k
Cz D
0.01 0.02 0.05
1000 1.901 2.458 3.991
5000 2.521 3.576 6.642
Produ ction P l anning And Control 119
Ex. A Contractor has a requirement of cement that amount to 150 bages per day. No
shortages are allowed. Cement cost Rs 120 per bag. Holding cost is Rs 2 per bag per day
cost Rs 150 to process an order.
Find
iv)
Inventory in mm
Times in days
Ex A Company uses a special bracket in the products which an orders from outside
suppliers. The appropriate data are
SOLUTION :-
2 Z Cr 2 2000 20
EOQ = - = 200 brackets
CCc 10 0.2
5800
Break Even value of K = 63.24
2 10 400
= 44.72,
4
5 1600 = 89.41
C Z > K Xo C accepted
Avg Cc p.a. 200 392 768 1520
Additional Cost --
SECOND NUMBER 192 568 1320
Incurred
On the above characteristics the optimal system is discovered. To find out the
solution or desired policy.
Use optimal lot size formula for Average demand which will give optional number
of orders and fixed
2 Z Cr
order quantity i.e. Dynamic-certainly case Xo =
CC c
Separately determine the optimal reserve stock during lag period by the method of
static inventory – under risk.
FIXED ORDER PERIOD (FIXED INTERNAL):-
In this – P system, the order period is determined by analysis and then the item in
inventory is reviewed. The order quantity will vary in accordance with the active inventory.
The total size of order will be different after adding the seasonal the demand with
average inventory. If the central stock record is maintained it become very to fix up the
order quantity after periodic review.
If we have an average order period of t weeks then
52 Cr
(i) Ordering Cost =
R+W
Where K = fixed out of cost
Total cost, TC = i + ii + iii + iv
52 Cr t D CCc 52 K
= W C Cc
f ( y)dy
t 104 t
R+W
Equation (19) must be minimized by differentiating w. r. to t & w to equal too
dTC 52 K
CCc , f (R W ) 0
dW t
Equation these two equation and solving by iteration (3 Nos) for t, we get.
(f (R + W)2 = 2 C Cc (Cr K (1F ( R W ) ------ 20
DK 2
P – System – Has :-
1. Fixed order period
2. Varying order size
3. Order amount will be determined
4. If order period is less than lead time, then units on hand plus units on order but not
received is to be considered.
5. Fluctuation in demand will be taken care by stock carried forward.
6. Whereas, Reserve stock is to be neglected during a period of lead time.
Total Cost, TC = 1) Yearly ordering cost
+ 2) Yearly Cc for the stock to meet average demand
+ 3) Yearly Cc of reserve
+ 4) Yearly out of stock cost
Here, we are assuming that the demand distribution is known for a basic one
week period.
If Z = Average weekly demand
LT = Lead time
X = Order quantity
X
-- = order period in weeks.
Pro du ctio n P l an n in g And C o n tro l
124
Convolution of the basic demand distribution.
Then,
f
52 Z Cc X C Cc 52 Z K LT
tc Cc f
TC = ( y) dy ----- (21)
15.ADDITIONAL TOPICS:
16.UNIVERSITY QUESTION
PAPERS:
Code No: 07A80302
R07 Set No. 2
x 2 X 6
5. How does scheduling in Job shops diff from High volume continuous systems?
Explain in detail. [16]
8. The following list defi the precedence relationships and element times for a com- ponent:
1
Code No: 07A80302
R07 Set No. 2
⋆⋆⋆⋆⋆
2
Code No: 07A80302
R07 Set No. 4
IV B.Tech II Semester Examinations,APRIL 2011
PRODUCTION PLANNING AND CONTROL
Common to Mechanical Engineering, Mechatronics
Time: 3 hours Max Marks: 80
Answer any FIVE Questions All
Questions carry equal marks
⋆⋆⋆⋆⋆
2. Describe the MRP process, including netting, exposing and time phasing. [16]
4. There are five jobs, each of which is to be processed through three machines A, B and C in the
order ABC. Processing times in hours are:
Job A B C
1 3 4 7
2 8 5 9
3 8 1 5
4 5 2 6
5 4 3 8
How should the jobs be loaded in order to minimize the total elapsed time? [16]
5. Describe any one quantitative technique used for Assembly line balancing. [16]
7. (a) Show that in exponential smoothing method, weightage to the past data de- clines
exponencially.
(b) Compare exponential smoothing forecast for different values of smoothing con- stant. [16]
8. The store of oil engine repair shop has 10 items whose details are shown in the following
table. Apply ABC analysis to the store: [16]
3
Code No: 07A80302
R07 Set No. 4
⋆⋆⋆⋆⋆
4
Code No: 07A80302
R07 Set No. 1
IV B.Tech II Semester Examinations,APRIL 2011
PRODUCTION PLANNING AND CONTROL
Common to Mechanical Engineering, Mechatronics
Time: 3 hours Max Marks: 80
Answer any FIVE Questions All
Questions carry equal marks
⋆⋆⋆⋆⋆
1. (a) What is the distinction between a scheduling rule and a scheduling criterion?
(b) Explain the scheduling rules with their relative advantages and disadvantages.
[8+8]
2. Place Aggregate planning in context with the term planning horizon. What is the appropriate
planning horizon for Aggregate planning? Explain the procedure involved in Aggregate plan. [16]
5. Suppose a company produces a type of desk that has the BOM given below. The desk is made
by assembling two drawers, two handles, one drawer frame, and two legs into a drawer module.
Then two drawer modules, desk back and a desk top are assembled into a desk.
6. (a) How do you classify inventories into A class, B class and C class items.
(b) Mention the control procedures are to be exercised on A class, B class and C class items.
[16]
5
Code No: 07A80302
R07 Set No. 1
7. The following series of 10 observations of sales of a company are given as foll- wed, 390,
390, 320, 370, 340, 330, 340, 390, 310, 350 (All fi in Rs. Lakhs). Given
initial foreast is 350 lakhs. Compute the diff between alpha=0.5 and
alpha=0.1. [16]
8. Diff rentiate between dispatching and expediting and point out to what extent these diff
should lead to a clear and rigid demarcation of responsibilities between dispatching and
expediting. [16]
⋆⋆⋆⋆⋆
6
Code No: 07A80302
R07 Set No. 3
IV B.Tech II Semester Examinations,APRIL 2011
PRODUCTION PLANNING AND CONTROL
Common to Mechanical Engineering, Mechatronics
Time: 3 hours Max Marks: 80
Answer any FIVE Questions All
Questions carry equal marks
⋆⋆⋆⋆⋆
1. Distinguish between the route card and route sheet, with an example. [16]
2. What is the meaning of Aggregate plan? What are the objectives of aggregate plans? What
are the inputs and the nature of the outputs? [16]
6. The Reliance Company has accepted several jobs that are due in the next few days. A batch of
these jobs is assigned to L & T Company. The pertinent data for these jobs are given below:
Job 1 2 3 4 5 6
Time to process (days) 5 4 3 1 1 2
Due in (days) 11 10 16 2 1 3
8. The following information is about a group of items.. Classify the items as A, B and C: [16]
8
Code No: 07A80302
R07 Set No. 3
⋆⋆⋆⋆⋆
9
Code No: 07A80302
R07 Set No. 2
IV B.Tech II Semester Examinations,APRIL 2011
PRODUCTION PLANNING AND CONTROL
Common to Mechanical Engineering, Mechatronics
Time: 3 hours Max Marks: 80
Answer any FIVE Questions All
Questions carry equal marks
⋆⋆⋆⋆⋆
5. How does scheduling in Job shops diff from High volume continuous systems?
Explain in detail. [16]
8. The following list defi the precedence relationships and element times for a com- ponent:
1
Code No: 07A80302
R07 Set No. 2
⋆⋆⋆⋆⋆
2
Code No: 07A80302
R07 Set No. 4
IV B.Tech II Semester Examinations,APRIL 2011
PRODUCTION PLANNING AND CONTROL
Common to Mechanical Engineering, Mechatronics
Time: 3 hours Max Marks: 80
Answer any FIVE Questions All
Questions carry equal marks
⋆⋆⋆⋆⋆
2. Describe the MRP process, including netting, exposing and time phasing. [16]
4. There are five jobs, each of which is to be processed through three machines A, B and C in the
order ABC. Processing times in hours are:
Job A B C
1 3 4 7
2 8 5 9
3 8 1 5
4 5 2 6
5 4 3 8
How should the jobs be loaded in order to minimize the total elapsed time? [16]
5. Describe any one quantitative technique used for Assembly line balancing. [16]
7. (a) Show that in exponential smoothing method, weightage to the past data de- clines
exponencially.
(b) Compare exponential smoothing forecast for different values of smoothing con- stant. [16]
8. The store of oil engine repair shop has 10 items whose details are shown in the following
table. Apply ABC analysis to the store: [16]
3
Code No: 07A80302
R07 Set No. 4
⋆⋆⋆⋆⋆
4
Code No: 07A80302
R07 Set No. 1
IV B.Tech II Semester Examinations,APRIL 2011
PRODUCTION PLANNING AND CONTROL
Common to Mechanical Engineering, Mechatronics
Time: 3 hours Max Marks: 80
Answer any FIVE Questions All
Questions carry equal marks
⋆⋆⋆⋆⋆
1. (a) What is the distinction between a scheduling rule and a scheduling criterion?
(b) Explain the scheduling rules with their relative advantages and disadvantages.
[8+8]
2. Place Aggregate planning in context with the term planning horizon. What is the appropriate
planning horizon for Aggregate planning? Explain the procedure involved in Aggregate plan. [16]
5. Suppose a company produces a type of desk that has the BOM given below. The desk is made
by assembling two drawers, two handles, one drawer frame, and two legs into a drawer module.
Then two drawer modules, desk back and a desk top are assembled into a desk.
6. (a) How do you classify inventories into A class, B class and C class items.
(b) Mention the control procedures are to be exercised on A class, B class and C class items.
[16]
5
Code No: 07A80302
R07 Set No. 1
7. The following series of 10 observations of sales of a company are given as foll- wed, 390,
390, 320, 370, 340, 330, 340, 390, 310, 350 (All fi in Rs. Lakhs). Given
initial foreast is 350 lakhs. Compute the diff between alpha=0.5 and
alpha=0.1. [16]
8. Diff rentiate between dispatching and expediting and point out to what extent these diff
should lead to a clear and rigid demarcation of responsibilities between dispatching and
expediting. [16]
⋆⋆⋆⋆⋆
6
Code No: 07A80302 R07 Set No.2
1. Distinguish between the route card and route sheet, with an example. [16]
2. What is the meaning of Aggregate plan? What are the objectives of aggregate plans? What
are the inputs and the nature of the outputs? [16]
6. The Reliance Company has accepted several jobs that are due in the next few days. A batch of
these jobs is assigned to L & T Company. The pertinent data for these jobs are given below:
Job 1 2 3 4 5 6
Time to process (days) 5 4 3 1 1 2
Due in (days) 11 10 16 2 1 3
7
8. The following information is about a group of items.. Classify the items as A, B and C: [16]
8
17.QUESTION BANK
Unit I
Unit III
UnitIV
9
Unit V
ASSIGNMENT QUESTIONS
10
17. What is Scheduling?
Unit V
20.TUTORIAL PROBLEMS
21. Known Curriculum Gaps and inclusion of the same in the lecture schedule:
1. Basic mathematical formulas.
2. Management techniques.
REFERENCES:
WEBSITES:-
1. www.universalteacherpublications.com
2.
3.
4.www.springer.com
E-LINKS:
JOURNALS:
B. Teaching Evaluation
Quality control department conducts online feedback, two times in the semester.
12
SL.NO. AdmnNo Student Name
1 12R11A0301 A R SAI PRAVESH
2 12R11A0302 ALLURI KAVYA SREE
3 12R11A0303 ANNAVARAPU VISHAL
4 12R11A0304 ASWANI KUMAR RAI
5 12R11A0305 BAIRI SRIDHER
6 12R11A0306 BALLARI RAHUL
7 12R11A0307 BANOTHU AJAY
8 12R11A0308 BARLAPATHI MAHESH KUMAR
9 12R11A0309 BODDUPALLI PRADEEP KUMAR
10 12R11A0310 BUKIYA JAYA VENKATA VARDHAN
11 12R11A0311 BURRA SANJAY KUMAR
12 12R11A0312 CHINDAM RAVI
13 12R11A0313 CH SANDEEP
14 12R11A0314 CHANDANAGIRI JALANDHAR
15 12R11A0315 CHIRUMALLA SHRAVANKUMAR
16 12R11A0316 DEERAVATH RAJESH
17 12R11A0317 DINESH NAIK BHUKYA
18 12R11A0318 G S V BALARAM KRISHNA
19 12R11A0319 GADDALA SURYA KIRAN
20 12R11A0320 HEMANTH PRASAD K
21 12R11A0321 INDIRALA RAJESH
22 12R11A0322 K NAGENDRA BABU
23 12R11A0323 K P ARVIND
24 12R11A0324 K PANDU
25 12R11A0325 K SEETHA RAMAIAH
26 12R11A0326 KAKUMAN JULIAN
27 12R11A0327 KALVAKUNTLA AKHIL KUMAR
28 12R11A0328 KANDERPALLY KAPILESHWAR
29 12R11A0329 KASULA RAHUL REDDY
30 12R11A0330 KATAPALLI DAYAKAR REDDY
31 12R11A0331 KATARI KIRAN
32 12R11A0332 KOLKURI MOUNIKA
33 12R11A0333 KOMMU PRAKASH
34 12R11A0334 LELLA AKSHAY KRISHNA
35 12R11A0335 M VINAY KUMAR REDDY
36 12R11A0336 MADHAMSHETTY RAHUL
37 12R11A0337 MALLOTH NAVEEN KUMAR NAYAK
38 12R11A0338 MANTHA PAVAN
39 12R11A0339 MARAKALA SHEETHAL
40 12R11A0340 MOHD SIRAJUDDIN
41 12R11A0341 MOODETI SAI PRAVEEN NAIK
42 12R11A0342 MULUGU DEEPA
43 12R11A0343 MUTTENI MAHESH
44 12R11A0344 PAKANATI SHAILENDHAR REDDY
45 12R11A0345 PANJALA VENU GOPAL
46 12R11A0346 PERAPALLI SAI KUMAR
47 12R11A0347 S JOHNSON
13
48 12R11A0348 SANGIREDDY LAKSHMI KANTH
49 12R11A0349 SHAIK AHMED MIYA
50 12R11A0350 SHAIK ASIF
51 12R11A0351 SUNKARI NARAYANA
52 12R11A0352 T AKHILESH
53 12R11A0353 T SHIVA DAMODAR PRASAD
54 12R11A0354 THAKUR SAI DILIP SINGH
55 12R11A0355 THIRUNAHARI ANUDEEP
56 12R11A0356 VANGARI VENKATESH
57 12R11A0357 VUCHULA SANDEEP
58 12R11A0358 VULLENGALA RAJASHEKAR
14