General Probability Review Problems – Markscheme

1. (a) P (A  B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A  B)  P (A  B) = P (A) +

P (B) – P (A  B) (M1)
3 4 6
=  – (M1)
11 11 11
1
= (0.0909) (A1) (C3)
11

(b) For independent events, P (A  B) = P (A) × P (B) (M1)

3 4
=  (A1)
11 11
12
= (0.0992) (A1) (C3)
121
[6]

2. (a) Independent (I) (C2)

(b) Mutually exclusive (M) (C2)
(c) Neither (N) (C2)
Note: Award part marks if the candidate shows understanding of I
and/or M
eg I P(A  B) = P(A)P(B) (M1)
M P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) (M1)
[6]

3. (a) P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A  B) (M1)

1 3 7
P(A  B) =  
2 4 8
3
= (A1) (C2)
8

 3
 
P( A  B)  8
(b) P(AB) =  (M1)
P(B)  3
 
 4
1
= (A1) (C2)
2
(c) Yes, the events are independent (A1) (C1)
EITHER
P(AB) = P(A) (R1) (C1)
OR
P(A  B) = P(A)P(B) (R1) (C1)
[6]

1
4. For using P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B)  P(A  B) (M1)
Let P(A) = x then P(B) = 3x
P(A  B) = P(A)  3P(A) (= 3x2) (A1)
0.68 = x + 3x  3x2 (A1)
3x2  4x + 0.68 = 0
x = 0.2 ( x = 1.133, not possible) (A2)
P(B) = 3x = 0.6 (A1) (C6)
[6]

5. (a) Independent  P(A  B) = P(A)  P(B) (= 0.3  0.8) (M1)

= 0.24 A1 N2

(b) P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B)  P(A  B) (= 0.3 + 0.8  0.24) M1

= 0.86 A1 N1

(c) No, with valid reason A2 N2

eg P(A  B)  0 or P(A  B)  P(A) + P(B) or correct
numerical equivalent
[6]

6. (a) For attempting to use the formula (P(E  F) = P(E)P(F)) (M1)

Correct substitution or rearranging the formula A1
1
1 2 P E  F 
eg  P(F), P(F) = , P(F) = 3
3 3 PE  2
3
1
P(F) = A1 N2
2
(b) For attempting to use the formula (P(E  F) = P(E) + P(F)
 (P(E  F)) (M1)
2 1 1
P(E  F) =   A1
3 2 3

=
5
 0.833 A1 N2
6
[6]

3
7. (a) A1 N1
4

(b) P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B)  P(A  B) (M1)

P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B)  P(A  B)
2
 2 3 7
=   A1
5 4 8
11
= (0.275) A1 N2
40

 11 
P( A  B)  40 
(c) P(A  B) =  A1
P(B)  3 
 
 4 
11
= (0.367) A1 N1
30
[6]

8. Total number of possible outcomes = 36 (may be seen anywhere) (A1)

(a) P( E)  P(1,1)  P(2, 2)  P(3, 3)  P(4, 4)  P(5, 5)  P(6, 6)

6
 (A1) (C2)
36

(b) P( F )  P(6, 4)  P(5, 5)  P(4, 6)

3
 (A1) (C1)
36

(c) P  E  F   P( E )  P( F )  P( E  F )

1
P( E  F )  (A1)
36
6 3 1  8 2 
PE  F       , 0.222  (M1)(A1) (C3)
36 36 36  36 9 
[6]

9. P(different colours) = 1 – [P(GG) + P(RR) + P(WW)] (M1)

 10 9 10 9 6 5
=1–        (A1)
 6 25 26 25 26 25 
 210 
=1–   (A1)
 650 
44
= (= 0.677, to 3 sf) (A1) (C4)
65

OR
P(different colours) = P(GR) + P(RG) + P(GW) + P(WG) + P(RW) + P(WR) (A1)
 10 6   10 10 
= 4    2   (A1)(A1)
 26 25   26 25 

3
 44
= (= 0.677, to 3 sf) (A1) (C4)
65
[4]

10. Sample space ={(1, 1), (1, 2) ... (6, 5), (6, 6)}
(This may be indicated in other ways, for example, a grid or a tree diagram, partly or fully completed)
1
2
3.
..
1
1
2
2 3.
..

3
4
5

6
6  5  4  3  2 1
(a) P (S < 8) = (M1)
36
7
= (A1)
12
OR
7
P (S < 8) = (A2)
12

11 6 111
(b) P (at least one 3) = (M1)
36
11
= (A1)
36
OR
11
P (at least one 3) = (A2)
36

P(at least one 3  S  8)

(c) P (at least one 3S < 8) = (M1)
PS  8
7
= 36 (A1)
7
12
1
= (A1)
3
[7]

7 6 7
11. P(RR) =    (M1)(A1)
12 11  22 
5 4 5
P(YY) =    (M1)(A1)
12 11  33 
4
 P (same colour) = P(RR) + P(YY) (M1)
31
= (= 0.470, 3 sf) (A1) (C6)
66
2 2
7 5 74
Note: Award C2 for       .
 
12  
12 144
[6]

 13   12   11   10 
12. Correct probabilities   ,   ,   ,   (A1)(A1)(A1)(A1)
 24   23   22   21 
 13 12 11 10 
Multiplying      (M1)
 24 23 22 21 
17160  65 
P(4 girls) =   0.0673  (A1) (C6)
255024  966 
[6]

13. (a)
Boy Girl Total
TV 13 25 38
Sport 33 29 62
Total 46 54 100

38
P(TV) = (A1) (C2)
100

13
(b) P(TV  Boy) = (= 0.283 to 3 sf) (A2) (C2)
46
Notes: Award (A1) for numerator and (A1) for denominator. Accept
equivalent answers.
[4]

14. (a)
Males Females Totals
Unemployed 20 40 60
Employed 90 50 140
Totals 110 90 200
Note: Award (A1) if at least 4 entries are correct.
Award (A2) if all 8 entries are correct.

40 1
(b) (i) P(unemployed female) =  (A1)
200 5

5
 90 9
(ii) P(male I employed person) =  (A1)
140 14
[4]

15. (a)
46
 0.474  A1A1 N2
97

(b)
13
 0.255  A1A1 N2
51

(c)
59
 0.608 A2 N2
97
[6]

16. (a) For summing to 1 (M1)

eg 0.1 + a + 0.3 + b = 1
a + b = 0.6 A1 N2
(b) evidence of correctly using E( X )   x f ( x) (M1)

eg 0  0.1 + 1  a + 2  0.3 + 3  b, 0.1 + a + 0.6 + 3b = 1.5

Correct equation 0 + a + 0.6 + 3b = 1.5 (a + 3b = 0.9) (A1)
Solving simultaneously gives
a = 0.45 b = 0.15 A1A1 N3
[6]

17. (a) (i) correct calculation (A1)

9 5 2 4  2  3 3
eg   ,
20 20 20 20
12  3 
P(male or tennis) =   A1 N2
20  5 
(ii) correct calculation (A1)
6 11 3  3
eg  ,
20 20 11
6
P(not football | female) = A1 N2
11

11 10
(b) P(first not football) = , P(second not football) = A1
20 19
11 10
P(neither football) =  A1
20 19
6
 110  11 
P(neither football) =   A1 N1
380  38 
[7]

80  8 
18. (a) (i) P( A)     0.381 (A1) (N1)
210  21 

35  1 
(ii) P(year 2 art)     0.167  (A1) (N1)
210  6 
(iii) No (the events are not independent, or, they are dependent) (A1) (N1)
EITHER
P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B) (to be independent) (M1)

100  10 
P( B)     0.476  (A1)
210  21 
1 8 10
  (A1)
6 21 21

OR
P(A)=P(A B) (to be independent) (M1)

35
P(A B)  (A1)
100
8 35
 (A1)
21 100

OR
P(B)=P(B A) (to be independent) (M1)

100  10  35
P( B)     0.476  , P(B A)  (A1)
210  21  80
35 100
 (A1) 6
80 210
Note: Award the first (M1) only for a mathematical interpretation of
independence.

(b) n (history)  85 (A1)

50  10 
P(year 1 history)     0.588  (A1)(N2)
85  17 
2

 110 100   100 110   110 100 

(c)        2   (M1)(A1)(A1)
 210 209   210 209   210 209 
7
 200
   0.501
399
(A1) (N2) 4
[12]

19. (a)
6, 6 1
6
1– 36
6
6
1–
6 –5
6 5
not 6 6, not 6
36
not 6, 6 5
6
1– 36
6
–5
6 not 6

–5
6
not 6 not 6, not 6 25
36
(M2) (C2)
1 5
Notes: Award (M1) for probabilities , correctly entered on diagram.
6 6
Award (M1) for correctly listing the outcomes 6, 6; 6 not 6; not 6, 6; not 6,
not 6, or the corresponding probabilities.

1 1 1 5 5 1  5 5
(b) P(one or more sixes) =      or 1    (M1)
6 6 6 6 6 6  6 6
11
= (A1) (C2)
36
[4]

20. (a)

0.6

0.4 0.4

0.6 0.5

0.5
(A1) (C1)

(b) P(B) = 0.4(0.6) + 0.6 (0.5) = 0.24 + 0.30 (M1)

= 0.54 (A1) (C2)

8
 P(B  C ) 0.24 4
(c) P(CB) =   (= 0.444, 3 sf) (A1) (C1)
P(B) 0.54 9
[4]

21. (a)
Grows
0.9

Red
0.4

0.1 Does not grow

Grows
0.8

0.6
Yellow

0.2 Does not grow

(A3) (N3) 3

(b) (i) 0.4  0.9 (A1)

= 0.36(A1) (N2)
(ii) 0.36  0.6  0.8 ( 0.36  0.48) (A1)
= 0.84(A1) (N1)
P(red  grows)
(iii) (may be implied) (M1)
P(grows)

0.36
 (A1)
0.84
 3
 0.429  
7
(A1) (N2) 7
[10]

9
22. (a)

(A1)(A1)(A1)

1 4  4 
(b) (i) P(R  S) =    0.267  (A1) (N1)
3 5  15 
1 4 2 1
(ii) P(S) =    (A1)(A1)
3 5 3 4
13
= ( 0.433) (A1) (N3)
30
4
(iii) P(R S) = 15 (A1)(A1)
13
30
8
= ( 0.615) (A1) (N3)
13
[10]

23. (a)
3/9 A

A
4/10
6/9
B

4/9 A
6/10
B

5/9
B
A1A1A1 N3
10
  4 6  6 4
(b)      M1M1
 10 9   10 9 
48  8 
  , 0.533  A1 N1
90  15 
[6]

24. (a)

A B

(A1) (C1)

(b) (i) n(A  B) = 2 (A1) (C1)

2  1
(ii) P(A  B) =  or  (allow ft from (b)(i)) (A1) (C1)
36  18 

(c) n(A  B)  0 (or equivalent) (R1) (C1)

[4]

25. (a) U

B
A

(A1) (C1)

(b) n(A  B) = n(A) + n(B) – n(A  B)

65 = 30 + 50 – n(A  B)
 n(A  B) = 15 (may be on the diagram) (M1)
n(B  A) = 50 – 15 = 35 (A1) (C2)

n( B  A) 35
(c) P(B  A) =  = 0.35 (A1) (C1)
n(U ) 100
[4]

11
26. (a)
19
 0.158 A1 N1
120

(b) 35  (8 + 5 + 7)(= 15) (M1)

15  3 1 
Probability =    0.125  A1 N2
120  24 8 

(c) Number studying = 76 (A1)

Number not studying = 120  number studying = 44 (M1)
44  11 
Probability =   0.367  A1 N3
120  30 
[6]

20
27. (a) P(PC) = A1
20  40
1
= A1 N1
3

30
(b) P(PC) = A1
30  60

1
= A1 N1
3

(c) Investigating conditions, or some relevant calculations (M1)

P is independent of C, with valid reason A1 N2
eg P(PC) = P(PC), P(PC) = P(P),
20 50 60
  (ie P(P  C) = P(P)  P(C))
150 150 150
[6]

120  1 
28. (a)    0.333  (A1)(A1) (C2)
360  3 
90  120  210 7 
(b)    0.583  (A2) (C2)
360  360 12 
90  3   1 
   0.429   Accept 
4
(c) (A1)(A1) (C2)
210  7  
7
12 
[6]

12