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Global Warming
By Holli Riebeek Design by Robert Simmon June 3, 2010
Throughout its long history, Earth has warmed and cooled time and again. Climate has changed
when the planet received more or less sunlight due to subtle shifts in its orbit, as the atmosphere
or surface changed, or when the Sun’s energy varied. But in the past century, another force has
started to influence Earth’s climate: humanity

Previous versions of this article were published in 2007 and 2002. Archived versions are available
as PDF files.

(NASA astronaut photograph ISS022-E-6678.)

What is Global Warming?


Global warming is the unusually rapid increase in Earth’s average surface temperature over the
past century primarily due to the greenhouse gases released by people burning fossil fuels.

How Does Today’s Warming Compare to Past Climate Change?


Earth has experienced climate change in the past without help from humanity. But the current
climatic warming is occurring much more rapidly than past warming events.

Why Do Scientists Think Current Warming Isn’t Natural?


In Earth’s history before the Industrial Revolution, Earth’s climate changed due to natural
causes unrelated to human activity. These natural causes are still in play today, but their
influence is too small or they occur too slowly to explain the rapid warming seen in recent
decades.

How Much More Will Earth Warm?


Models predict that as the world consumes ever more fossil fuel, greenhouse gas concentrations
will continue to rise, and Earth’s average surface temperature will rise with them. Based on
plausible emission scenarios, average surface temperatures could rise between 2°C and 6°C by
the end of the 21st century. Some of this warming will occur even if future greenhouse gas
emissions are reduced, because the Earth system has not yet fully adjusted to environmental
changes we have already made.

How Will Earth Respond to Warming Temperatures?


The impact of global warming is far greater than just increasing temperatures. Warming
modifies rainfall patterns, amplifies coastal erosion, lengthens the growing season in some
regions, melts ice caps and glaciers, and alters the ranges of some infectious diseases. Some of
these changes are already occurring.

References and Related Resources

Next Page: Global Warming

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7. 7

• Introduction

• Global Warming

• How is Today’s Warming Different from the Past?

• Is Current Warming Natural?

• How Much More Will Earth Warm?

• How Will Global Warming Change Earth?

• References and Related Resources

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• • NASA official: Lorraine Remer

last updated: October 6, 2010

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Global Warming
Throughout its long history, Earth has warmed and cooled time and again. Climate has changed
when the planet received more or less sunlight due to subtle shifts in its orbit, as the atmosphere
or surface changed, or when the Sun’s energy varied. But in the past century, another force has
started to influence Earth’s climate: humanity

How does this warming compare to previous changes in Earth’s climate? How can we be certain
that human-released greenhouse gases are causing the warming? How much more will the
Earth warm? How will Earth respond? Answering these questions is perhaps the most
significant scientific challenge of our time.
What is Global Warming?
Global warming is the unusually rapid increase in Earth’s average surface temperature over the
past century primarily due to the greenhouse gases released as people burn fossil fuels. The
global average surface temperature rose 0.6 to 0.9 degrees Celsius (1.1 to 1.6° F) between 1906
and 2005, and the rate of temperature increase has nearly doubled in the last 50 years.
Temperatures are certain to go up further.

Despite ups and downs from year to year, global average surface temperature is rising. By the beginning
of the 21st century, Earth’s temperature was roughly 0.5 degrees Celsius above the long-term (1951–
1980) average. (NASA figure adapted from Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature
Analysis.)

Earth’s natural greenhouse effect


Earth’s temperature begins with the Sun. Roughly 30 percent of incoming sunlight is reflected
back into space by bright surfaces like clouds and ice. Of the remaining 70 percent, most is
absorbed by the land and ocean, and the rest is absorbed by the atmosphere. The absorbed solar
energy heats our planet.

As the rocks, the air, and the seas warm, they radiate “heat” energy (thermal infrared radiation).
From the surface, this energy travels into the atmosphere where much of it is absorbed by water
vapor and long-lived greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane.

When they absorb the energy radiating from Earth’s surface, microscopic water or greenhouse
gas molecules turn into tiny heaters— like the bricks in a fireplace, they radiate heat even after
the fire goes out. They radiate in all directions. The energy that radiates back toward Earth heats
both the lower atmosphere and the surface, enhancing the heating they get from direct sunlight.
This absorption and radiation of heat by the atmosphere—the natural greenhouse effect—is
beneficial for life on Earth. If there were no greenhouse effect, the Earth’s average surface
temperature would be a very chilly -18°C (0°F) instead of the comfortable 15°C (59°F) that it is
today.

See Climate and Earth’s Energy Budget to read more about how sunlight fuels Earth’s climate.

The enhanced greenhouse effect


What has scientists concerned now is that over the past 250 years, humans have been artificially
raising the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at an ever-increasing rate,
mostly by burning fossil fuels, but also from cutting down carbon-absorbing forests. Since the
Industrial Revolution began in about 1750, carbon dioxide levels have increased nearly
38 percent as of 2009 and methane levels have increased 148 percent.

Increases in concentrations of carbon dioxide (top) and methane (bottom) coincided with the start of the
Industrial Revolution in about 1750. Measurements from Antarctic ice cores (green lines) combined with
direct atmospheric measurements (blue lines) show the increase of both gases over time. (NASA graphs
by Robert Simmon, based on data from the NOAA Paleoclimatology and Earth System Research
Laboratory.)

The atmosphere today contains more greenhouse gas molecules, so more of the infrared energy
emitted by the surface ends up being absorbed by the atmosphere. Since some of the extra
energy from a warmer atmosphere radiates back down to the surface, Earth’s surface
temperature rises. By increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases, we are making Earth’s
atmosphere a more efficient greenhouse.

Next Page: How is Today’s Warming Different from the Past?

1. 1

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3. 3

4. 4

5. 5

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• Introduction

• Global Warming

• How is Today’s Warming Different from the Past?

• Is Current Warming Natural?

• How Much More Will Earth Warm?

• How Will Global Warming Change Earth?

• References and Related Resources

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• webmaster: Paul Przyborski

• • NASA official: Lorraine Remer

last updated: October 6, 2010

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How is Today’s Warming Different from the Past?


Earth has experienced climate change in the past without help from humanity. We know about
past climates because of evidence left in tree rings, layers of ice in glaciers, ocean sediments,
coral reefs, and layers of sedimentary rocks. For example, bubbles of air in glacial ice trap tiny
samples of Earth’s atmosphere, giving scientists a history of greenhouse gases that stretches
back more than 800,000 years. The chemical make-up of the ice provides clues to the average
global temperature.

See the Earth Observatory’s series Paleoclimatology for details about how scientists study past
climates.
Glacial ice and air bubbles trapped in it (top) preserve an 800,000-year record of temperature & carbon
dioxide. Earth has cycled between ice ages (low points, large negative anomalies) and warm interglacials
(peaks). (Photograph courtesy National Snow & Ice Data Center. NASA graph by Robert Simmon, based
on data from Jouzel et al., 2007.)

Using this ancient evidence, scientists have built a record of Earth’s past climates, or
“paleoclimates.” The paleoclimate record combined with global models shows past ice ages as
well as periods even warmer than today. But the paleoclimate record also reveals that the
current climatic warming is occurring much more rapidly than past warming events.

As the Earth moved out of ice ages over the past million years, the global temperature rose a
total of 4 to 7 degrees Celsius over about 5,000 years. In the past century alone, the temperature
has climbed 0.7 degrees Celsius, roughly ten times faster than the average rate of ice-age-
recovery warming.

Temperature histories from paleoclimate data (green line) compared to the history based on modern
instruments (blue line) suggest that global temperature is warmer now than it has been in the past 1,000
years, and possibly longer. (Graph adapted from Mann et al., 2008.)
Models predict that Earth will warm between 2 and 6 degrees Celsius in the next century. When
global warming has happened at various times in the past two million years, it has taken the
planet about 5,000 years to warm 5 degrees. The predicted rate of warming for the next century
is at least 20 times faster. This rate of change is extremely unusual.

Next Page: Is Current Warming Natural?

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5. 5

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• Introduction

• Global Warming

• How is Today’s Warming Different from the Past?

• Is Current Warming Natural?

• How Much More Will Earth Warm?

• How Will Global Warming Change Earth?

• References and Related Resources

Share this article

Print this Entire Article

• feeds

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• • privacy policy & important notices

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Science Office located at NASA Goddard Space
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• webmaster: Paul Przyborski

• • NASA official: Lorraine Remer

last updated: October 6, 2010


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Is Current Warming Natural?


In Earth’s history before the Industrial Revolution, Earth’s climate changed due to natural
causes not related to human activity. Most often, global climate has changed because of
variations in sunlight. Tiny wobbles in Earth’s orbit altered when and where sunlight falls on
Earth’s surface. Variations in the Sun itself have alternately increased and decreased the
amount of solar energy reaching Earth. Volcanic eruptions have generated particles that reflect
sunlight, brightening the planet and cooling the climate. Volcanic activity has also, in the deep
past, increased greenhouse gases over millions of years, contributing to episodes of global
warming.

A biographical sketch of Milutin Milankovitch describes how changes in Earth’s orbit affects its
climate.

These natural causes are still in play today, but their influence is too small or they
occur too slowly to explain the rapid warming seen in recent decades. We know this
because scientists closely monitor the natural and human activities that influence climate with a
fleet of satellites and surface instruments.
Remote meteorological stations (left) and orbiting satellites (right) help scientists monitor the causes and
effects of global warming. [Images courtesy NOAA Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition
Change (left) and Environmental Visualization Laboratory (right).]

NASA satellites record a host of vital signs including atmospheric aerosols (particles from both
natural sources and human activities, such as factories, fires, deserts, and erupting volcanoes),
atmospheric gases (including greenhouse gases), energy radiated from Earth’s surface and the
Sun, ocean surface temperature changes, global sea level, the extent of ice sheets, glaciers and
sea ice, plant growth, rainfall, cloud structure, and more.

On the ground, many agencies and nations support networks of weather and climate-
monitoring stations that maintain temperature, rainfall, and snow depth records, and buoys
that measure surface water and deep ocean temperatures. Taken together, these measurements
provide an ever-improving record of both natural events and human activity for the past 150
years.

Scientists integrate these measurements into climate models to recreate temperatures recorded
over the past 150 years. Climate model simulations that consider only natural solar variability
and volcanic aerosols since 1750—omitting observed increases in greenhouse gases—are able to
fit the observations of global temperatures only up until about 1950. After that point, the
decadal trend in global surface warming cannot be explained without including the contribution
of the greenhouse gases added by humans.

Though people have had the largest impact on our climate since 1950, natural changes to
Earth’s climate have also occurred in recent times. For example, two major volcanic eruptions,
El Chichon in 1982 and Pinatubo in 1991, pumped sulfur dioxide gas high into the atmosphere.
The gas was converted into tiny particles that lingered for more than a year, reflecting sunlight
and shading Earth’s surface. Temperatures across the globe dipped for two to three years.
Although Earth’s temperature fluctuates naturally, human influence on climate has eclipsed the
magnitude of natural temperature changes over the past 120 years. Natural influences on temperature—
El Niño, solar variability, and volcanic aerosols—have varied approximately plus and minus 0.2° C (0.4°
F), (averaging to about zero), while human influences have contributed roughly 0.8° C (1° F) of warming
since 1889. (Graphs adapted from Lean et al., 2008.)

Although volcanoes are active around the world, and continue to emit carbon dioxide as they
did in the past, the amount of carbon dioxide they release is extremely small compared to
human emissions. On average, volcanoes emit between 130 and 230 million tonnes of carbon
dioxide per year. By burning fossil fuels, people release in excess of 100 times more, about 26
billion tonnes of carbon dioxide, into the atmosphere every year (as of 2005). As a result,
human activity overshadows any contribution volcanoes may have made to recent global
warming.
Changes in the brightness of the Sun can influence the climate from decade to decade, but an
increase in solar output falls short as an explanation for recent warming. NASA satellites have
been measuring the Sun’s output since 1978. The total energy the Sun radiates varies over an 11-
year cycle. During solar maxima, solar energy is approximately 0.1 percent higher on average
than it is during solar minima.

The transparent halo known as the solar corona changes between solar maximum (left) and solar
minimum (right). (NASA Extreme Ultraviolet Telescope images from the SOHO Data Archive.)

Each cycle exhibits subtle differences in intensity and duration. As of early 2010, the solar
brightness since 2005 has been slightly lower, not higher, than it was during the previous 11-
year minimum in solar activity, which occurred in the late 1990s. This implies that the Sun’s
impact between 2005 and 2010 might have been to slightly decrease the warming that
greenhouse emissions alone would have caused.

Satellite measurements of daily (light line) and monthly average (dark line) total solar irradiance since
1979 have not detected a clear long-term trend. (NASA graph by Robert Simmon, based on data from the
ACRIM Science Team.)
Scientists theorize that there may be a multi-decadal trend in solar output, though if one exists,
it has not been observed as yet. Even if the Sun were getting brighter, however, the pattern of
warming observed on Earth since 1950 does not match the type of warming the Sun alone would
cause. When the Sun’s energy is at its peak (solar maxima), temperatures in both the lower
atmosphere (troposphere) and the upper atmosphere (stratosphere) become warmer. Instead,
observations show the pattern expected from greenhouse gas effects: Earth’s surface and
troposphere have warmed, but the stratosphere has cooled.

Satellite measurements show warming in the troposphere (lower atmosphere, green line) but cooling in
the stratosphere (upper atmosphere, red line). This vertical pattern is consistent with global warming
due to increasing greenhouse gases, but inconsistent with warming from natural causes. (Graph by
Robert Simmon, based on data from Remote Sensing Systems, sponsored by the NOAA Climate and
Global Change Program.)

The stratosphere gets warmer during solar maxima because the ozone layer absorbs ultraviolet
light; more ultraviolet light during solar maxima means warmer temperatures. Ozone depletion
explains the biggest part of the cooling of the stratosphere over recent decades, but it can’t
account for all of it. Increased concentrations of carbon dioxide in the troposphere and
stratosphere together contribute to cooling in the stratosphere.

Next Page: How Much More Will Earth Warm?

1. 1

2. 2

3. 3

4. 4

5. 5

6. 6

7. 7

• Introduction

• Global Warming

• How is Today’s Warming Different from the Past?

• Is Current Warming Natural?

• How Much More Will Earth Warm?


• How Will Global Warming Change Earth?

• References and Related Resources

Share this article

Print this Entire Article

• feeds

• • contact us

• about the Earth Observatory

• • image use policy

• • privacy policy & important notices

• the Earth Observatory is part of the EOS Project


Science Office located at NASA Goddard Space
Flight Center

• webmaster: Paul Przyborski

• • NASA official: Lorraine Remer

last updated: October 7, 2010

How Much More Will Earth Warm?


To further explore the causes and effects of global warming and to predict future warming,
scientists build climate models—computer simulations of the climate system. Climate models
are designed to simulate the responses and interactions of the oceans and atmosphere, and to
account for changes to the land surface, both natural and human-induced. They comply with
fundamental laws of physics—conservation of energy, mass, and momentum—and account for
dozens of factors that influence Earth’s climate.

Though the models are complicated, rigorous tests with real-world data hone them into
powerful tools that allow scientists to explore our understanding of climate in ways not
otherwise possible. By experimenting with the models—removing greenhouse gases emitted by
the burning of fossil fuels or changing the intensity of the Sun to see how each influences the
climate—scientists use the models to better understand Earth’s current climate and to predict
future climate.

The models predict that as the world consumes ever more fossil fuel, greenhouse gas
concentrations will continue to rise, and Earth’s average surface temperature will rise with
them. Based on a range of plausible emission scenarios, average surface temperatures
could rise between 2°C and 6°C by the end of the 21st century.
Model simulations by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimate that Earth will warm
between two and six degrees Celsius over the next century, depending on how fast carbon dioxide
emissions grow. Scenarios that assume that people will burn more and more fossil fuel provide the
estimates in the top end of the temperature range, while scenarios that assume that greenhouse gas
emissions will grow slowly give lower temperature predictions. The orange line provides an estimate of
global temperatures if greenhouse gases stayed at year 2000 levels. (©2007 IPCC WG1 AR-4.)

Climate Feedbacks
Greenhouse gases are only part of the story when it comes to global warming. Changes to one
part of the climate system can cause additional changes to the way the planet absorbs or reflects
energy. These secondary changes are called climate feedbacks, and they could more than
double the amount of warming caused by carbon dioxide alone. The primary
feedbacks are due to snow and ice, water vapor, clouds, and the carbon cycle.

Snow and ice


Perhaps the most well known feedback comes from melting snow and ice in the Northern
Hemisphere. Warming temperatures are already melting a growing percentage of Arctic sea ice,
exposing dark ocean water during the perpetual sunlight of summer. Snow cover on land is also
dwindling in many areas. In the absence of snow and ice, these areas go from having bright,
sunlight-reflecting surfaces that cool the planet to having dark, sunlight-absorbing surfaces that
bring more energy into the Earth system and cause more warming.
Canada’s Athabasca Glacier has been shrinking by about 15 meters per year. In the past 125 years, the
glacier has lost half its volume and has retreated more than 1.5 kilometers. As glaciers retreat, sea ice
disappears, and snow melts earlier in the spring, the Earth absorbs more sunlight than it would if the
reflective snow and ice remained. (Photograph ©2005 Hugh Saxby.)

Water Vapor
The largest feedback is water vapor. Water vapor is a strong greenhouse gas. In fact, because of
its abundance in the atmosphere, water vapor causes about two-thirds of greenhouse warming,
a key factor in keeping temperatures in the habitable range on Earth. But as temperatures
warm, more water vapor evaporates from the surface into the atmosphere, where it can cause
temperatures to climb further.

The question that scientists ask is, how much water vapor will be in the atmosphere in a
warming world? The atmosphere currently has an average equilibrium or balance between
water vapor concentration and temperature. As temperatures warm, the atmosphere becomes
capable of containing more water vapor, and so water vapor concentrations go up to regain
equilibrium. Will that trend hold as temperatures continue to warm?

The amount of water vapor that enters the atmosphere ultimately determines how much
additional warming will occur due to the water vapor feedback. The atmosphere responds
quickly to the water vapor feedback. So far, most of the atmosphere has maintained a near
constant balance between temperature and water vapor concentration as temperatures have
gone up in recent decades. If this trend continues, and many models say that it will, water
vapor has the capacity to double the warming caused by carbon dioxide alone.

Clouds
Closely related to the water vapor feedback is the cloud feedback. Clouds cause cooling by
reflecting solar energy, but they also cause warming by absorbing infrared energy (like
greenhouse gases) from the surface when they are over areas that are warmer than they are. In
our current climate, clouds have a cooling effect overall, but that could change in a
warmer environment.
Clouds can both cool the planet (by reflecting visible light from the sun) and warm the planet (by
absorbing heat radiation emitted by the surface). On balance, clouds slightly cool the Earth. (NASA
Astronaut Photograph STS31-E-9552 courtesy Johnson space Center Earth Observations Lab.)

If clouds become brighter, or the geographical extent of bright clouds expands, they will tend to
cool Earth’s surface. Clouds can become brighter if more moisture converges in a particular
region or if more fine particles (aerosols) enter the air. If fewer bright clouds form, it will
contribute to warming from the cloud feedback.

See Ship Tracks South of Alaska to learn how aerosols can make clouds brighter.

Clouds, like greenhouse gases, also absorb and re-emit infrared energy. Low, warm clouds emit
more energy than high, cold clouds. However, in many parts of the world, energy emitted by low
clouds can be absorbed by the abundant water vapor above them. Further, low clouds often have
nearly the same temperatures as the Earth’s surface, and so emit similar amounts of infrared
energy. In a world without low clouds, the amount of emitted infrared energy escaping to space
would not be too different from a world with low clouds.
Clouds emit thermal infrared (heat) radiation in proportion to their temperature, which is related to
altitude. This image shows the Western Hemisphere in the thermal infrared. Warm ocean and land
surface areas are white and light gray; cool, low-level clouds are medium gray; and cold, high-altitude
clouds are dark gray and black. (NASA image courtesy GOES Project Science.)

High cold clouds, however, form in a part of the atmosphere where energy-absorbing water
vapor is scarce. These clouds trap (absorb) energy coming from the lower atmosphere, and emit
little energy to space because of their frigid temperatures. In a world with high clouds, a
significant amount of energy that would otherwise escape to space is captured in the
atmosphere. As a result, global temperatures are higher than in a world without high clouds.

If warmer temperatures result in a greater amount of high clouds, then less infrared energy will
be emitted to space. In other words, more high clouds would enhance the greenhouse effect,
reducing the Earth’s capability to cool and causing temperatures to warm.

See Clouds and Radiation for a more complete description.

Scientists aren’t entirely sure where and to what degree clouds will end up amplifying or
moderating warming, but most climate models predict a slight overall positive
feedback or amplification of warming due to a reduction in low cloud cover. A
recent observational study found that fewer low, dense clouds formed over a region in the
Pacific Ocean when temperatures warmed, suggesting a positive cloud feedback in this region as
the models predicted. Such direct observational evidence is limited, however, and clouds remain
the biggest source of uncertainty--apart from human choices to control greenhouse gases—in
predicting how much the climate will change.

The Carbon Cycle


Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and warming temperatures are causing
changes in the Earth’s natural carbon cycle that also can feedback on atmospheric carbon
dioxide concentration. For now, primarily ocean water, and to some extent ecosystems on land,
are taking up about half of our fossil fuel and biomass burning emissions. This behavior slows
global warming by decreasing the rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide increase, but that trend
may not continue. Warmer ocean waters will hold less dissolved carbon, leaving more in the
atmosphere.

About half the carbon dioxide emitted into the air from burning fossil fuels dissolves in the ocean. This
map shows the total amount of human-made carbon dioxide in ocean water from the surface to the sea
floor. Blue areas have low amounts, while yellow regions are rich in anthropogenic carbon dioxide. High
amounts occur where currents carry the carbon-dioxide-rich surface water into the ocean depths. (Map
adapted from Sabine et al., 2004.)

See The Ocean’s Carbon Balance on the Earth Observatory.

On land, changes in the carbon cycle are more complicated. Under a warmer climate, soils,
especially thawing Arctic tundra, could release trapped carbon dioxide or methane to the
atmosphere. Increased fire frequency and insect infestations also release more carbon as trees
burn or die and decay.

On the other hand, extra carbon dioxide can stimulate plant growth in some ecosystems,
allowing these plants to take additional carbon out of the atmosphere. However, this effect may
be reduced when plant growth is limited by water, nitrogen, and temperature. This effect may
also diminish as carbon dioxide increases to levels that become saturating for photosynthesis.
Because of these complications, it is not clear how much additional carbon dioxide plants can
take out of the atmosphere and how long they could continue to do so.

The impact of climate change on the land carbon cycle is extremely complex, but on balance,
land carbon sinks will become less efficient as plants reach saturation, where they can no
longer take up additional carbon dioxide, and other limitations on growth occur, and as land
starts to add more carbon to the atmosphere from warming soil, fires, and insect infestations.
This will result in a faster increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide and more rapid global
warming. In some climate models, carbon cycle feedbacks from both land and ocean add more
than a degree Celsius to global temperatures by 2100.

Emission Scenarios
Scientists predict the range of likely temperature increase by running many possible future
scenarios through climate models. Although some of the uncertainty in climate forecasts comes
from imperfect knowledge of climate feedbacks, the most significant source of uncertainty in
these predictions is that scientists don’t know what choices people will make to control
greenhouse gas emissions.

The higher estimates are made on the assumption that the entire world will continue using more
and more fossil fuel per capita, a scenario scientists call “business-as-usual.” More modest
estimates come from scenarios in which environmentally friendly technologies such as fuel cells,
solar panels, and wind energy replace much of today’s fossil fuel combustion.

It takes decades to centuries for Earth to fully react to increases in greenhouse gases. Carbon
dioxide, among other greenhouse gases, will remain in the atmosphere long after emissions are
reduced, contributing to continuing warming. In addition, as Earth has warmed, much of the
excess energy has gone into heating the upper layers of the ocean. Like a hot water bottle on a
cold night, the heated ocean will continue warming the lower atmosphere well after greenhouse
gases have stopped increasing.

These considerations mean that people won’t immediately see the impact of reduced
greenhouse gas emissions. Even if greenhouse gas concentrations stabilized today, the
planet would continue to warm by about 0.6°C over the next century because of
greenhouses gases already in the atmosphere.

See Earth’s Big Heat Bucket, Correcting Ocean Cooling, and Climate Q&A: If we immediately
stopped emitting greenhouse gases, would global warming stop? to learn more about the ocean
heat and global warming.

How Will Global Warming Change Earth?


The impact of increased surface temperatures is significant in itself. But global warming will
have additional, far-reaching effects on the planet. Warming modifies rainfall patterns,
amplifies coastal erosion, lengthens the growing season in some regions, melts ice caps and
glaciers, and alters the ranges of some infectious diseases. Some of these changes are already
occurring.
Global warming will shift major climate patterns, possibly prolonging and intensifying the current drought
in the U.S. Southwest. The white ring of bleached rock on the once-red cliffs that hold Lake Powell
indicate the drop in water level over the past decade—the result of repeated winters with low snowfall.
(Photograph ©2006 Tigresblanco.)

Changing Weather
For most places, global warming will result in more frequent hot days and fewer cool days, with
the greatest warming occurring over land. Longer, more intense heat waves will become more
common. Storms, floods, and droughts will generally be more severe as precipitation patterns
change. Hurricanes may increase in intensity due to warmer ocean surface temperatures.
Apart from driving temperatures up, global warming is likely to cause bigger, more destructive storms,
leading to an overall increase in precipitation. With some exceptions, the tropics will likely receive less
rain (orange) as the planet warms, while the polar regions will receive more precipitation (green). White
areas indicate that fewer than two-thirds of the climate models agreed on how precipitation will change.
Stippled areas reveal where more than 90 percent of the models agreed. (©2007 IPCC WG1 AR-4.)

It is impossible to pin any single unusual weather event on global warming, but emerging
evidence suggests that global warming is already influencing the weather. Heat waves,
droughts, and intense rain events have increased in frequency during the last 50
years, and human-induced global warming more likely than not contributed to the trend.

Rising Sea Levels


The weather isn’t the only thing global warming will impact: rising sea levels will erode coasts
and cause more frequent coastal flooding. Some island nations will disappear. The problem is
serious because up to 10 percent of the world’s population lives in vulnerable areas less than 10
meters (about 30 feet) above sea level.

Between 1870 and 2000, the sea level increased by 1.7 millimeters per year on average, for a
total sea level rise of 221 millimeters (0.7 feet or 8.7 inches). And the rate of sea level rise is
accelerating. Since 1993, NASA satellites have shown that sea levels are rising more quickly,
about 3 millimeters per year, for a total sea level rise of 48 millimeters (0.16 feet or 1.89 inches)
between 1993 and 2009.

Sea levels crept up about 20 centimeters (7.9 inches) during the twentieth century. Sea levels are
predicted to go up between 18 and 59 cm (7.1 and 23 inches) over the next century, though the increase
could be greater if ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica melt more quickly than predicted. Higher sea
levels will erode coastlines and cause more frequent flooding. (Graph ©2007 Robert Rohde.)

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that sea levels will rise
between 0.18 and 0.59 meters (0.59 to 1.9 feet) by 2099 as warming sea water expands, and
mountain and polar glaciers melt. These sea level change predictions may be underestimates,
however, because they do not account for any increases in the rate at which the world’s major
ice sheets are melting. As temperatures rise, ice will melt more quickly. Satellite measurements
reveal that the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets are shedding about 125 billion tons of
ice per year—enough to raise sea levels by 0.35 millimeters (0.01 inches) per year. If the melting
accelerates, the increase in sea level could be significantly higher.

Impacting Ecosystems
More importantly, perhaps, global warming is already putting pressure on ecosystems, the
plants and animals that co-exist in a particular climate zone, both on land and in the ocean.
Warmer temperatures have already shifted the growing season in many parts of the globe. The
growing season in parts of the Northern Hemisphere became two weeks longer in the second
half of the 20th century. Spring is coming earlier in both hemispheres.

This change in the growing season affects the broader ecosystem. Migrating animals have to
start seeking food sources earlier. The shift in seasons may already be causing the lifecycles of
pollinators, like bees, to be out of synch with flowering plants and trees. This mismatch can
limit the ability of both pollinators and plants to survive and reproduce, which would reduce
food availability throughout the food chain.

See Buzzing About Climate Change to read more about how the lifecycle of bees is synched with
flowering plants.

Warmer temperatures also extend the growing season. This means that plants need more water
to keep growing throughout the season or they will dry out, increasing the risk of failed crops
and wildfires. Once the growing season ends, shorter, milder winters fail to kill dormant insects,
increasing the risk of large, damaging infestations in subsequent seasons.

In some ecosystems, maximum daily temperatures might climb beyond the tolerance of
indigenous plant or animal. To survive the extreme temperatures, both marine and land-based
plants and animals have started to migrate towards the poles. Those species, and in some cases,
entire ecosystems, that cannot quickly migrate or adapt, face extinction. The IPCC estimates
that 20-30 percent of plant and animal species will be at risk of extinction if temperatures climb
more than 1.5° to 2.5°C.

Impacting People
The changes to weather and ecosystems will also affect people more directly. Hardest hit will be
those living in low-lying coastal areas, and residents of poorer countries who do not have the
resources to adapt to changes in temperature extremes and water resources. As tropical
temperature zones expand, the reach of some infectious diseases, such as malaria, will change.
More intense rains and hurricanes and rising sea levels will lead to more severe flooding and
potential loss of property and life.

One inevitable consequence of global warming is sea-level rise. In the face of higher sea levels and more
intense storms, coastal communities face greater risk of rapid beach erosion from destructive storms like
the intense nor’easter of April 2007 that caused this damage. (Photograph ©2007 metimbers2000.)

Hotter summers and more frequent fires will lead to more cases of heat stroke and deaths, and
to higher levels of near-surface ozone and smoke, which would cause more ‘code red’ air quality
days. Intense droughts can lead to an increase in malnutrition. On a longer time scale, fresh
water will become scarcer, especially during the summer, as mountain glaciers disappear,
particularly in Asia and parts of North America.

On the flip side, there could be “winners” in a few places. For example, as long as the rise in
global average temperature stays below 3 degrees Celsius, some models predict that global food
production could increase because of the longer growing season at mid- to high-latitudes,
provided adequate water resources are available. The same small change in temperature,
however, would reduce food production at lower latitudes, where many countries already face
food shortages. On balance, most research suggests that the negative impacts of a changing
climate far outweigh the positive impacts. Current civilization—agriculture and population
distribution—has developed based on the current climate. The more the climate changes, and
the more rapidly it changes, the greater the cost of adaptation.
Ultimately, global warming will impact life on Earth in many ways, but the extent of the change
is largely up to us. Scientists have shown that human emissions of greenhouse gases are pushing
global temperatures up, and many aspects of climate are responding to the warming in the way
that scientists predicted they would. This offers hope. Since people are causing global warming,
people can mitigate global warming, if they act in time. Greenhouse gases are long-lived, so the
planet will continue to warm and changes will continue to happen far into the future, but the
degree to which global warming changes life on Earth depends on our decisions now.

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