Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
BACKGROUND
The South African Business School Association (SABSA) undertook a two-day scenario-building workshop, to form a coherent
forward view of the trends and “drivers of change” that will shape the operating environment of South African business schools in
the coming decade.
It was acknowledged that a high level of diversity exists in the business school landscape in South Africa, and that as such,
implications vary for the operational, policy and strategic relevance of the scenarios on a school-by-school basis. As a result, an
attempt was made, throughout the scenario-building process, to accommodate a range of contextual considerations as per their
relevance to the array of SABSA member schools.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
A multi-stakeholder scenario-building process was undertaken to explore the future of business schools in South Africa. Three
alternative scenarios emerged for business schools, given changing conditions in their operating environment, namely; “Running
out of Road” (baseline scenario), “Sky Way, New Entrants” and “Dead End, Sector versus Players”. These scenarios arise from
current trends in ideological shifts in society, a stagnant economic environment, rising societal expectations and social license SABSA OFFICE SCENARIO FACILITATOR
pressures, rapid technological advances resulting in changing client demands, a cumbersome regulatory and institutional ANNE WILSON MARIUS OOSTHUIZEN
environment, extreme climate, and reputational and legitimacy risks facing schools. Variable levels of preparedness and resilience MANAGER FACULTY: STRATEGIC FORESIGHT
are apparent in different schools needing to navigate these scenarios, relating to their financial models, and diversification of SOUTH AFRICAN BUSINESS SCHOOLS ASSOCIATION (SABSA) GORDON INSTITUTE OF BUSIENSS SCIENCE
offerings, technology adoption and the use of networks to enhance their market access and research agenda and capacity. Schools
c +27 82 828 7300 | f +27 86 523 4593 t +27 11 771 4378
are likely to face headwinds in future, unless they adopt lean cost management tech-enabled alternative models for delivery and
form strategic collaborations and partnerships. The capacity of the sector to navigate the regulatory and institutional landscape is e ANNE@SABSA.CO.ZA C 084 670 1723
likely to be fundamental to their progress in the medium term. w WWW.SABSA.CO.ZA e OOSTHUIZENM@GIBS.CO.ZA
2 | GIBS GIBS | 3
THREE ALTERNATIVE . . .ARE UNABLE TO MAKE
THE TRANSITION REQUIRED
SCENARIOS AND FAIL DUE TO COST
PRESSURES.
In order to accommodate all drivers in an integrative manner, the first scenario created was a baseline scenario, which considered
what the future would be like, if all the drivers and trends continued in their current trajectory. The alternative scenarios were then
extrapolated from the baseline, given specific changes in the drivers and trends. The result was an initial three scenarios, with two SCENARIO 1: BASELINE SCENARIO (ORANGE) - “RUNNING OUT OF ROAD”
mid-way alternatives, as set out below:
“Sky Way” In the baseline scenario, “Running out of Road”, the ideological and social pressures on South African society continue unabated.
(New Entrants) Failure to find political consensus and cooperation result in an ever-weakening economy that is unable to deliver on the social
FUTURE OF BUSINESS SCHOOLS (2025-2030) expectations of citizens, and within which the business community is increasingly cash-strapped. Human capital development
takes a back seat as restructuring and cost-cutting are undertaken. While the adoption of technology offers new and efficient
ways of delivering management education, the stifling effects of the regulatory environment mean that business schools are
too slow to evolve and enjoy diminishing returns from an ever-shrinking market. Vulnerable to climate shocks and disruption,
DRIVERS OF CHANGE business schools have to cope with the added burden of a waning social license among citizens and societal stakeholders, as well
as the business community that sees schools as out-dated “ivory towers” and unable to provide them with answers to the tough
Ideology
THE FUTURE OF ENERGY IN SA AND SADC: CURRENT TRENDS & ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS GIVEN KEY POLICY & STRATEGIC CHOICES
SCENARIO 3: WORST CASE SCENARIO (RED) - “DEAD END” (SECTOR VS. PLAYERS)
In the worst-case scenario, “Dead End”, the drivers of change coalesce in a destructive, reinforcing vicious cycle of decline.
As ideological contestation worsens, the economy stalls amid successive ratings downgrades and a series of divestments by
. . .ALL THE DRIVERS significant business players. This results in the rise of social pressure and erodes the business school community’s social license
at an alarming pace. The adoption of technology, as an attractive cost reduction mechanism, erodes the commitment to quality
WERE CONSIDERED IN and pedagogical rigor as business schools drift increasingly towards a survivalist posture. In this scenario, the stand-alone
business school of today becomes an endangered species as private sector belt-tightening strangles demand for lucrative executive
CREATING A SERIES OF education and flagship programmes, such as the MBA, lose their appeal in favour of short, affordable skills-based programmes.
4 | GIBS GIBS | 5
THE SCENARIO
The preliminary insights gained from these sources were brought into an interactive workshop setting, facilitated over two days.
During the workshop, participants were asked to identify additional trends pertinent to the discussion, and then asked to debate
these in various sub-groups of 5-6 members, in order to create a parallel peer-review and delphi-type cross-testing of their
PROCESS
perspectives. The aforementioned framework was used as a guiding tool for this initial scanning process. These inputs were then
captured and located within their respective contextual location on the framework, and their implications for schools explored
through an open plenary dialogue among participants.
The scenario-building process began with the collation of inputs from various institutional representatives, of contextual Once a comprehensive collection of trends had been obtained, these were reviewed by workshop participants once again, working
trends that they consider to be shaping the future of their institution. This step constituted a pre-workshop scanning in sub-groups, to assess their anticipated impact and respective level of uncertainty, in terms of how they will affect business
process, whereby experienced executives, with many years’ experience working in the sector, were able to table their schools in future. Through this process, participants fulfilled the role of subject matter experts on the state and future of the
considered views, on what changes ought to be on the strategic radar of business schools leaders as they navigate their sector, drawing on their collective intelligence, tacit contextual intelligence and their strategic concerns. By again debating in
changing operating environment. plenary, their inputs, and synthesising the views of the respective sub-groups, a high level of convergence about probable future
implicaitons emerged between the participants.
With these inputs as background, a comprehensive framework of analysis (see below) was developed, according to which deeper
analysis could be done of the trends shaping the sector. The framework, covering factors internal and external to schools, provided
a conceptual landscape for analysis and data gathering. The data gathering process included a collation and comparison of various WORKSHOP OUTLINE
industry forecasts, already in the public domain, undertaken by consultants, practitioners and media commentators.
DAY 1 DAY 2
Session 1: Foundations of Scenario Planning and Scoping the Landscape Session 1: Scenario Logics and Stories of the Future
THE FUTURE OF ENERGY IN SA AND SADC: CURRENT TRENDS & ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS GIVEN KEY POLICY & STRATEGIC CHOICES
DESCRIPTION OF FRAMEWORK
The framework sets out the conceptual landscape, within which the scenario-building process was undertaken. At the top of
the framework reference is made to the operating environment and institutional stakeholders. These two components provided
important nodes for reflection, particularly as they relate to the socio-political context, within which business schools, as
members of larger public institutions, operate, and the array of stakeholder relations within the two domains of government and
business. In the middle of the framework, consideration is given to the three core business model components of funding, students
and curriculum, around which business schools typically pivot operationally. At the base of the framework, the foundational issues
of infrastructure and academics (faculty) are noted, with the entrants of competition on the one hand and academic outputs on the
other, as well as the cross-cutting issue of technology at the bottom right. Around each of these nodes are plotted key references to
issues and trends that arose from the initial trends survey conducted among institutional leaders, ahead of the workshop.
6 | GIBS GIBS | 7
IDENTIFICATION OF TRENDS SHAPING THE FUTURE OF MANAGEMENT EDUCATION TREND DESCRIPTION OF IMPACT
Changing market demand More and more South Africans will be forced to obtain postgraduate qualifications for employment
Stakeholders were invited to submit a list of trends ahead of the workshop that, in their assessment, signify significant changes reasons, with specific skills and vocation reasons. This will marginalise the value of qualifications in the
taking place in the operating environment of business schools. These are listed below: long-run.
Public universities will attempt to
TREND DESCRIPTION OF IMPACT emulate private business schools
Impact of technology on teaching This is a catch-all for everything to do with on-line learning, digital space, virtual classrooms.
Competing strategic priororties Public business schools will be geared towards 3rd income stream activities and short-term goals with
and learning (How we deliver) Expectations on flexible learning, synchronous/asynchronous. How do we meet this opportunity and
quality issues and attempt to emulate trade schools rather than academic schools.
challenge? Overseas schools compete in our space then. Artificial Intelligence. Virtual Reality. Augmented
Reality. Blockchain.
Employers moving away from The demand of MBA and similar will peak and different offerings will be required.
Financial pressure on tertiary Increasingly, we will have to paddle our own canoe. How do we ensure we remain fit for purpose, relevant
traditional business qualifications
institutions (Our future and address our own financial sustainability. Will we remain affordable, value for money? Will we be seen
sustainability) to be legitimate agents of change for the betterment of our stakeholders?
Mobility
Academic staff development (Will Transformation imperative, young academics, teaching, research attracting right staff who will meet the Integrated Education Journeys Students and employers demand that offerings be flexible and integrated with their current workloads.
our academics be able to deliver future challenges. We are not developing business academics at the rate required. How will we address
on what we need?) this. What of insufficient PhDs (for example). Insufficient black academics. Transformation and de-
colonisation of curriculums
Alternative academic offerings Is the MBA still worth its salt? Relevant? What does the market need and want? (These are not the same Political Expedience Sound practice and theories will be discarded in favour of politically motivated offerings, without
(The MBA itself, what is its thing). Are we to set the agenda, or to have it imposed on us? Pressure for shorter, specific programmes. consulting business and employers.
THE FUTURE OF ENERGY IN SA AND SADC: CURRENT TRENDS & ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS GIVEN KEY POLICY & STRATEGIC CHOICES
future? What are the alternatives) Applied research? Curriculum design. Our local and global context. Relevant to/in our context. Shaping Changing student/client needs Time-stressed students operating in an increasingly complex environment, both personally and
our own destiny. Maintaining our credibility and standing. What is expected in terms of leadership and professionally. This requires diverse delivery options through the use of technology, composition of
management competencies and how we shape/influence these. programmes, physical vs virtual delivery variations and styles, with a focus on applied knowledge.
Sometimes, deep knowledge and individual competence vs group functionality are required. Thus, less
Collaboration dynamics (Cross, We can’t work alone to make a contribution to solving our challenges. We will have to partner. With whom, group work is key. Lecturers are to be come facilitators of learning rather than mere knowledge transfer
inter, intra disciplinary) how do we set the terms of reference, shape the discourse. How will that impact staffing, structure, agents.
skills (etc.) of business schools. This collaboration can extend between business schools locally, in Africa, Changing business needs More and more people specialise in their respective fields and graduate without a strong foundation
outside of Africa, industries, other disciplines (like medical science, biotech, renewable energy, etc, etc.). of the principles of business. Although business needs specialists, there is a greater move towards
employing people with general business knowledge and skills. Business requires people who can solve
Decline in number of MBA Impact on selection decisions. problems in an increasingly complex world and think differently, going beyond a specific area. Business
applications due to lack of schools need to train people for this.
funding/bursaries for MBA
students Changing knowledge More training players disseminating knowledge and focusing on skills, not necessarily formal, have
Changes in the demographic Challenge the basic assumptions of established ‘Western” theories and mind-sets. Effects on curriculum environment entered the market. Udemy is a good example. They are extremely relevant to business, resulting in some
profile of MBA students in terms development. working professionals opting for such training instead of formal qualifications. Similarly, open source
of race learning is emerging more and more, making expensive formal programmes questionable. Technology will
Move from person-centred Implications for preparing students for leadership and leadership challenges. have a big impact in driving this, where the main driver will no longer be content, but skills or thought
leadership to contextual processes, where content will only be the vehicle with which the skills are transferred.
leadership
Increased rate of new entrants An onslaught of international entrants (with both blended and online offerings) will require schools to
differentiate and find ways to provide visible proof points around their offerings. Technology impact – 4th This will also have an impact on the publication of books and articles, where more and more information
industrial revolution. will become open source.
Declining government subsidy Business schools of public universities will need to find other fund-raising avenues to ensure Globalisation It has become increasingly easier to study business administration internationally, resulting in the
sustainability. competitive environment becoming much larger. Thus, business schools need to ensure that they can give
working professionals a globally relevant and competitive experience.
Growing diversification of
programmes
Industry-based business school Internationally, there is a move towards business schools to be established and driven by industries or
Intra-Institutional Differentiation Although the market for MBAs will grow, schools will need to invest in offering other programmes. Where
vs university based large corporations instead of universities. There are some of these starting to take shape in SA as well.
these conflict with “main campus” offerings, SA B Schools will need to negotiate the degrees they will be
This has huge implications for SA business schools not only from a ‘teaching’ perspective, but it also
allowed to offer relative to other faculties that currently offer M & D degrees in related areas.
means that the role of executive training and especially research as we know it will change.
Growing requirement to Business schools will need to actively decide on the arenas, in which they will make their social
Growing uncertainty and The relevance and value of business education will require constant review and contextualisation to assist
demonstrate social contribution contribution.
complexity in the 21st century business and society to make sense of the unknown and the unpredictable.
society
Increased government The curricula and general discretion of public universities will be increasingly fettered by government.
intervention into public Private universities will be afforded far more latitude and freedom to compete, using business models A nagging apprehension about Because of previous (Enron) and present (KPMG) unethical business behaviour and a sharp decline in
universities that will not necessarily include a focus on research. world morality, ethical behaviour the global trust in government and business, the legitimacy and reputation of business and business
and trust education per se is expected to come under scrutiny.
Education as a Service
Unemployment rates in Southern
Africa and Africa in general.
8 | GIBS GIBS | 9
TREND DESCRIPTION OF IMPACT TREND DESCRIPTION OF IMPACT
AI and Robotics The impact of AI and robotics on the workplace is going to force business schools to enhance, innovate Climate change and other The imperatives of sustainability are becoming more extreme, including matters of new KPIs for
and reform its offerings to suit the requisite competencies and skills of the workplace in the technological sustainability factors business success, ethics and governance. The uncertainty around the language of sustainability, its
era. Critical their skills of reasoning, analysis and diagnostic. misappropriation by self-serving factions, and the emergence of the relational and generative economy
make taking decisive business decisions towards positive change for sustainable wellbeing difficult.
New Entrants with Value-Adding The value proposition of the traditional model of a business school is set to be diluted by the emergence Preparing future business leaders must include the ability to address these issues. Current low levels of
Services of several other competitors that offer a consulting service to companies as an alternative to business awareness of the subject matter will make it a difficult sell in the contemporary marketplace. It is similarly
education. difficult to attract the few suitably qualified leading-edge thinkers on this topic. Finally, integrating this
throughout a full curriculum will be difficult.
Socio-Economic Malaise in the
form of Poverty, Unemployment
and Inequality Advances in Data Analysis The impact of more rigorous ways to model and interpret information (e.g., marketing metrics, qualitative
and quantitative data) from electronically-mediated and traditional data sources (i.e., so-called big data).
Stakeholder Apprach to Business Business schools should produce business leadership intelligence that tackles the triple bottom line and
balancing stakeholder and shareholder interests in a globalising world. Big Data New technologies facilitate collecting “big data” and rigorously modelling it to understand complexity,
change and the key drivers of financial, social and environmental sustainability. The ways that we teach
Digitisation & Technology Exponential increase in digitisation is likely to change the business environment dramatically. How will/
students to understand sources of demand, sources of supply, and methods of effective management
Disruption of World of Business should this change the curricula of business schools?
must prepare them for this new world.
to move to, or to expect online delivery of teaching – even free online teaching from some international research component in the MBA applied thinking in the degree. No matter that graduated MBAs can theoretically enter PhD study; they
business schools. How will this influence the future of the MBA? simply have nowhere near the grounding to do so. In fact, the MBA is a professional degree, and the CHE
specifications state that they should be able to be admitted to a cognate doctorate - which is a DBA, not
a PhD.
International Competition
Unbridled digitisation of Digitisation is the new trend that is fast catching up with business schools worldwide. An increasing
Internationalisation of the Market Geographical footprint has little impact on the market that can be served. More international business academic programmes number of courses are becoming virtual. While this widens access to academic programmes to a large
schools are looking to become involved in Africa and South Africa – is this an opportunity or a threat to number of people and may offer decent revenue for the university, the long-term consequences can be
SA business schools? dire, particularly on the quality of academic programmes. Digitisation may lead to oversupply of business
Socio-political instability in SA E.g., #FeesMustFall, weakening of the exchange rate, inflation and a lack of government support, can school graduates relative to their demand with ramifications for the job market and the relevance of
make it almost impossible for SA business schools to deliver quality MBAs. What about impact from other business school degrees. It may also affect negatively the way learners and teachers interact, effectively
and other student unrests, and instability in SA government due to faction fighting in ruling party, etc. shifting face-to-face contact into a virtual world. Lastly, it is my view that digitisation will hasten the
Artificial Intelligence world we are in now and cause severe disruptions to student-lecturer relationships.
Rate of Change in Business The dramatic speed of change in the business environment is likely to make it very difficult for business
schools to keep up with new and changing business practices and needs. Increasing distance between
what direct client (the students) value and what the stakeholders (market / rankings / institutions) Future World of Work In the emerging techno-human society of the 21st Century, there are several existential threats to work and
measure as success. jobs as well as shifting employment trends. Many of the roles that business schools are training people for
Digital education will not exist in the near future, where new skills and competencies will be required.
4th Industrial Revolution The fourth industrial revolution is radically transforming the way, in which education is and will be
delivered. Students want sophisticated blended education that involves an interactive digitised course The digitisation of courses There is a need to ensure we are future-facing and evolving along with work trends in order to remain
and virtual synchronous contact. This requires a shift in an institution’s teaching and learning approach, relevant. If we don’t, the impact will be that business schools will become redundant.
infrastructure and interaction with students.
Virtualisation of Education Less face-to-face student engagement, more online engagement will increase our potential student
numbers, while decreasing our overall outgoing costs, provided we keep up with the trend and
understand how to scale and scope for this.
Experiential learning
Demand for more hybrid delivery
Workplace-based learning Workplace learning is becoming increasingly important as this ensures that graduates can transition more
- contact plus online
swiftly in the workplace. The curriculum should be more practical and applied. Facilitators need to be able
to make better connections between theory and practice. More importantly, assessments and discourse
should reflect on learnings to encourage deep learning. Seamless articulation from Exec
Ed to formal quals
Job placements International business schools are offering internships and some even guarantee employment with Need to get our online side
relevant organisations as part of the programme. Business schools are required to establish partnerships sorted out
with businesses so that they can be placed and possibly employed. Close interaction with Exec
Ed plus a bit of course re-
Edutourism Countries such as the UK, USA and Australia are realising that education can be a lucrative revenue engineering
stream for their economy. SA is the perfect destination because of the cost and quality of education. Shifting Business Models Failure of consultancy business models like McKinsey, Bain, etc. International collapse of present
Business schools will attract students from around the world, which means their curriculum would have to bureaucratic University business models. Entry of new Universities; Singularity, Apple, Google, Pearson,
be more globally relevant with an emphasis on global leadership. distance learning important trend, MOOCs, enormous disruptive innovation in teaching, death of
University bureaucracies, curricula contested.
Social and environmental A global trend is to be mindful of how our actions impact society and the environment. Business schools
consciousness need to develop graduates to be more socially and environmentally conscious through dialogues,
assessments and practical projects.
10 | GIBS GIBS | 11
TREND DESCRIPTION OF IMPACT SWOT ANALYSIS OF SA BUSINESS SCHOOLS
Demand for Entrepreneurship We will need to form entrepreneurial hubs and enter into direct competition with the international
consultancies and use our frameworks to attack them. It is from here that we will research and derive our In order to conduct a SWOT analysis of the current strategies and capabilities of schools, the question was posed, “How well will
teaching frameworks. It will require new and innovative leadership, which is absent in South Africa at the each of the schools represented fare in each of the possible future scenarios?” The strategic dimensions of “growth strategies”,
moment. The emerging business school leadership types are emerging in the above-mentioned examples. “diversification of offerings” and “entrance into African markets elsewhere on the continent” were discussed.
Social License of Business Under Staying relevant in a business environment, where corporations have a low reputation in helping bridge Recognition was given to the differences between private providers and public sector providers, and the diversity of approaches
Pressure the economic and social divide in SA. and strategies employed by the various institutions. It was stated that some of the strategies employed by public providers are
Social Inclusion Curriculum and attitudinal changes that provide a more critiqued perspective of corporate SA and focus not likely to be sustainable under the baseline scenario. The strategic question that emerged for these schools was, “how do you
specifically at their core on issues of inclusion, informal economy, equity, and exclusionary practices. navigate the constraints of lethargic government processes in their attempt to rapidly adapt and evolve?”
One of the key themes that featured repeatedly was the potential of better collaboration between schools domestically and
IDENTIFYING DRIVERS OF CHANGE between local and international schools, as a means to navigate the uncertainties represented in the scenarios. So too, the use of
online platforms was discussed, with the recognition that in many cases, the business model associated with their use requires
Participants were given an opportunity, working in syndicate groups, to discuss the aforementioned trends and add to the list, economies of scale to make them financially viable and justify the investment required. However, there was recognition that
where needed. Having produced a comprehensive list of trends that each syndicate considered comprehensive, the trends e-learning platforms do provide options to particularly improve affordability and expansion into other markets.
were analysed for their respective “underlying drivers”. In other words, the structural, industry and contextual drivers that are
understood to be giving rise to the trends. What emerged as trends and drivers were the following; This would be necessary for the sector, particularly under conditions, where a small group of schools have to compete for a
relatively small South African market. The question of local accreditation in new markets was discussed as well as the prospect of
partnering with large private sector players in other territories, to leverage their networks and footprint and in so doing, expand
DRIVERS OF CHANGE IMPACT UNCERTAINTY
THE FUTURE OF ENERGY IN SA AND SADC: CURRENT TRENDS & ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS GIVEN KEY POLICY & STRATEGIC CHOICES
These drivers of change were ranked in terms of their respective anticipated impact on business schools, as well as the level of The lack of autonomy in public institutions, leading to inertia and apathy within schools.
uncertainty that participants assigned to each driver. In light of the fact that all the drivers ranked relatively high (out of 5) for The research of the schools agenda coming under financial pressure, in cases, where schools have not sufficiently adopted a lean
.
impact, and of similar uncertainty, the decision was taken not to eliminate any of the drivers in the creation of the scenarios, but approach to cost structures.
rather take an integrative approach as stated. As such, all the drivers were considered in creating a series of plausible, alternative
future scenarios for business school. The prospect of legislation hampering innovation in business schools
12 | GIBS GIBS | 13
REFERENCES
https://venturebeat.com/2014/05/11/education-as-a-service-5-ways-
higher-ed-must-adapt-to-a-changing-market/
http://study.com/blog/education-as-a-service-it-s-time-to-unbundle-
education.html
https://www.forbes.com/sites/sebastienturbot/2017/08/22/artificial-
intelligence-virtual-reality-education/#5bd4e3b16c16
http://www.parent24.com/Learn/High-school/the-future-of-learning-
applying-artificial-intelligence-to-education-20170724
https://www.forbes.com/sites/barbarakurshan/2016/03/10/the-future-
of-artificial-intelligence-in-education/#3444e1882e4d
THE FUTURE OF ENERGY IN SA AND SADC: CURRENT TRENDS & ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS GIVEN KEY POLICY & STRATEGIC CHOICES
https://techcrunch.com/2016/01/23/when-virtual-reality-meets-
education/
http://hackeducation.com/2016/04/07/blockchain-education-guide
https://oeb-insights.com/10-ways-blockchain-could-be-used-in-
education/
http://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/top-trends-in-the-gartner-
hype-cycle-for-emerging-technologies-2017/
14 | GIBS GIBS | 15