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Energy e ciency is good for consumers. And
for the planet?
Rebound e ects are tricky to estimate
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Print edition | Finance and economics
Oct 25th 2018
O n october 19th the International Energy Agency reported that doubling
world gdp by 2040 would require only a small rise in energy demand if
everyone adopted strict standards, like Japan’s for vehicle-fuel e ciency. That, the
forecaster says, would be great news for consumers and the climate alike. Higher
e ciency means less fossil fuel must be burned—and less planet-cooking gas
belched—to power the global economy. But some economists are not so sure.
As nations grow wealthier, they have used more energy. Whether some of the extra
joules consumed can be attributed to a more e cient use of energy has been
debated since 1865, when William Stanley Jevons, a British economist, postulated
that better steam engines would raise Britain’s overall demand for coal, rather than
lower it. A new paper by Sebastian Rausch and Hagen Schwerin, of the Swiss
Federal Institute of Technology, argues that something similar has happened in
post-war America.
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Economies are composed of more than households, however. Businesses, too, react
to changes in relative prices, often in complicated ways. Greater energy e ciency
translates into higher productivity—and higher returns to rms, making them
attractive to capital. Resources freed by innovation may be allocated elsewhere.
Over the long term, demand for energy appears much more responsive to changes
in price than household studies imply. Were it less “elastic”, in economists’
parlance, the share of output going to energy production would not, outside a few
oil shocks, have remained so stable over the past 150 years (see chart).
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Resource reallocation—and any concomitant uptick in energy use—can be caused
by other things, including economic growth plain and simple. To disentangle the
impact of energy e ciency, Messrs Rausch and Schwerin have created what they
think is the rst macroeconomic model to link energy use to e ciency-enhancing
technological change.
The provision of energy-dependent services requires combining capital (say, an
electricity generator or a car) with energy (coal or petrol). Although it relies on
complicated maths, in essence the model predicts energy consumption using
energy e ciency and the relative cost of capital and energy. Fix energy e ciency,
and you can calculate the energy use that would have happened in the absence of
technological progress. When this counterfactual scenario is compared with what
actually occurred in America between 1960 and 2011, the duo found that, as Jevons
might have predicted, e ciency gains added to total energy use, o setting 102% of
the savings.
This is unlikely to be the last word. For one thing, the rebound depends on how
easily energy can be swapped for other inputs (like capital or labour). The model
assumes this is quite easy, but economy-wide empirical data are scarce. The
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authors also acknowledge that they have not considered policy-driven changes to
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e ciency, such as those in Japan. These, unlike technological progress, can raise
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producers’ costs. And no one denies that greater energy e ciency bene ts today’s
consumers. But settling whether it is a boon for the planet will, with luck, not take
another 150 years.
This article appeared in the Finance and economics section of the print edition under the headline "Waste not,
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Print edition | Finance and economics
Oct 25th 2018
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