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INT J TUBERC LUNG DIS 18(4):492–498

Q 2014 The Union


http://dx.doi.org/10.5588/ijtld.13.0694

Smoking increases risk of recurrence after successful anti-


tuberculosis treatment: a population-based study

Y-F. Yen,*† M-Y. Yen,‡ Y-S. Lin,§ Y-P. Lin,¶ H-C. Shih,‡ L-H. Li,‡ P. Chou,† C-Y. Deng#
*
Section of Infectious Diseases, Taipei City Hospital, Taipei City Government, Taipei, †Community Medicine
Research Center and Institute of Public Health, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, ‡Department of Disease
Control and Prevention, Taipei City Hospital, Taipei City Government, Taipei, §Department of Pharmacy, Taipei
Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, ¶Taipei Databank for Public Health Analysis, Taipei City Hospital, Taipei City
Government, Taipei, #Institute of Hospital and Health Care Administration, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei,
Taiwan

SUMMARY

O B J E C T I V E : To investigate whether tobacco smoking that after controlling for other variables, the risk of TB
increases the risk of tuberculosis (TB) recurrence and recurrence among subjects who smoked .10 cigarettes a
identify factors associated with TB recurrence among day was double that of never/former smokers. Other
adults who had successfully completed anti-tuberculosis independent risk factors significantly associated with TB
treatment in Taipei, Taiwan. recurrence were homelessness (aHR 3.75, 95%CI 1.17–
M E T H O D S : Recurrence was defined as a new clinical or 12.07), presence of comorbidities (aHR 2.66, 95%CI
microbiological diagnosis of TB requiring the start of a 1.22–5.79) and a positive acid-fast bacilli smear (aHR
new course of treatment in a patient who had 2.27, 95%CI 1.47–3.49).
satisfactorily completed treatment for a previous TB C O N C L U S I O N : Smoking .10 cigarettes a day was
episode. Cox proportional hazard models were used to significantly associated with TB recurrence. To reduce
calculate adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for recurrence. the risk of recurrence, we recommend including effective
R E S U LT S : We followed 5567 adults for recurrence after measures of smoking cessation in TB control pro-
successful anti-tuberculosis treatment. The mean age grammes, as recommended by the World Health
was 58.5 years; 62.9% were male. Overall, 84 (1.5%) Organization Stop TB Strategy.
had a recurrence of TB during follow-up. The incidence K E Y W O R D S : tuberculosis; recurrence; smoking;
of TB recurrence was 4.9 episodes/1000 person-years of Taiwan
follow-up. Cox proportional hazards regression showed

TUBERCULOSIS (TB) can recur and lead to TB TB recurrence is not clear and has seldom been
transmission even after successful treatment. The investigated.5–7 To our knowledge, only four recent
average reported incidence rates of recurrent TB (per studies have evaluated this association: three found a
100 000 person-years [py]) worldwide were respec- significant association between smoking and TB
tively 3010 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2230–3970) recurrence,8–10 while one did not.11 Moreover, these
and 2290 (95%CI 1730–2940) at 6 and 12 months findings are limited due to a possible misclassification
after treatment completion.1 Recurrent TB cases of TB cases, given the fact that TB patients were
constitute a particular challenge to public health identified using chest radiography (CXR) alone,9 the
systems, in part due to their higher rates of multidrug small number of recurrent cases10,11 and inadequate
resistance2,3 and mortality4 than new cases. Moreover, adjustment for potential confounders such as treat-
retreatment regimens for recurrent TB tend to be more ment duration,8–11 clinical findings (e.g., cavity on
expensive than first-line treatment for a new episode, CXR)8–11 and underlying diseases (e.g., human
and can thus put further strain on national TB control immunodeficiency virus [HIV] infection).8,9 These
budgets. studies also varied in their classification of smoking
Three recent literature reviews have reported that status, as non-smoker and smoker,8,11 non-smoker, ex-
while smoking is an important factor for TB develop- smoker and current smoker,9 and ‘never smoking or
ment, the association between tobacco smoking and quit smoking’ and ever smoking.10 A better under-

Correspondence to: Chung-Yeh Deng, Institute of Hospital and Health Care Administration, National Yang-Ming
University, 155, Section 2, Ni-Long Street, Taipei, Taiwan 11221. Tel: (þ886) 2 2826 7390. Fax: (þ886) 2 2822 1942. e-mail:
cydeng@ym.edu.tw
Article submitted 18 September 2013. Final version accepted 5 December 2013.
Smoking increases risk of TB recurrence 493

standing of the incidence of, and factors associated level, homelessness, current smoking status, alcohol
with, TB recurrence might help in identifying the most use and unemployment), clinical findings (AFB smear
vulnerable populations and developing effective con- status and TB culture, cavities on CXR, pleural
trol measures that lower the rate of recurrence. effusion, extra-pulmonary TB), comorbidities, in-
We estimated the incidence of TB recurrence and cluding malignancy and HIV infection, source of
analysed associated risk factors, with particular notification, year of diagnosis and treatment course.
emphasis on smoking, among adults who had Education level was categorised as no education,
successfully completed anti-tuberculosis treatment elementary school, high school and university or
in Taipei, Taiwan, from 2005 to 2010. higher. Unemployment was defined as unemployed
status at the first TB episode. Current smoking status
was categorised as never smoked or quit smoking,
METHODS
smoking 1 – 10 cigarettes a day and smoking .10
Study population and data source cigarettes a day. Source of notification was defined as
This retrospective cohort study used TB surveillance the department that reported the TB case, i.e., general
data from Taipei, Taiwan. In Taiwan, active cases of wards, intensive care units or out-patient services.
pulmonary TB must be reported to the Taiwan Centers Treatment course was categorised as 9 and .9
for Disease Control (CDC) within 24 h, and other TB months.15
cases within 7 days of diagnosis. After notification,
trained case managers use a structured questionnaire Statistical analysis
to interview patients about their sociodemographic Cox proportional hazards regression models were
characteristics, clinical findings, underlying diseases, used to investigate risk factors associated with
admission history and anti-tuberculosis treatment. TB recurrent TB. Unadjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for
patients in Taiwan are required by law to be sociodemographics, comorbidities, clinical findings
monitored until treatment success, default, treatment and treatment regimen were calculated using univar-
failure, transfer or death, as defined by the World iate analysis. Kaplan-Meier curves were created and
Health Organization (WHO).12 comparisons were assessed based on the factors
In this study, both initial and recurrent TB cases associated with TB recurrence. All variables found
were defined using clinical and/or laboratory find- to be significant (P , 0.10) using univariate analysis
ings.13,14 Clinical cases included those with manifes- were considered for inclusion in multivariate analysis.
tations consistent with TB (e.g., prolonged fever, Backward-stepwise Cox regression analysis was
wasting) and exclusion of other differential diagnoses performed to produce the final model. HRs and
by diagnostic evaluation.13 Laboratory definitions adjusted HRs (aHRs) with 95% confidence intervals
included 1) Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolated (CIs) are reported to show the strength and direction
from a clinical specimen, or 2) acid-fast bacilli of associations. We also tested the interaction
(AFB) identified in a clinical specimen from patients between smoking status and other covariates in the
with clinical manifestations consistent with TB. This multivariate analysis. All analyses were conducted
study included Taiwanese adults aged 18 years using the SPSS statistical software package version
diagnosed with TB in Taipei during the period 2005– 21.0 (Statistical Product and Service Solutions,
2010. After successful anti-tuberculosis treatment, all Chicago, IL, USA).
study subjects were followed until TB recurrence,
death or survival without recurrent TB. The follow-
RESULTS
up period lasted until 31 December 2011. The
Taiwan mortality registry was consulted to identify In total, 7143 adult TB cases were reported to the
follow-up cases who died during the study period. Taipei TB Control Department from 2005 to 2010
This project was approved by the Institutional (Figure 1). Of these, 1504 individuals died during
Review Board of the Taipei City Hospitals, Taipei, anti-tuberculosis treatment, 13 were lost to follow-
Taiwan. up, 25 were still receiving treatment, 7 experienced
treatment failure and 27 were transferred out of
Outcome variable Taipei City; these 1566 cases were all excluded from
TB recurrence was defined as a new clinical or subsequent analyses. The remaining 5567 successful-
microbiological diagnosis of TB requiring the start of ly treated patients were included in the study. The
a new course of treatment in a patient who had overall mean age was 58.5 years (range 18–98);
successfully completed treatment for a previous TB 62.9% were male.
episode.10 Of the 5567 study subjects, 84 (1.5%) developed
recurrence during 17 166 py of follow-up, which
Explanatory variables corresponds to an incidence of TB recurrence of 4.9
Explanatory variables included subject sociodemo- episodes/1000 py (95%CI 3.8–5.9) of follow-up.
graphic factors (age, sex, marital status, education Table 1 shows the number of recurrent TB cases by
494 The International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease

Figure 1 Study flow diagram. TB ¼ tuberculosis.

year of follow-up: 75% of TB recurrences occurred 3) showed that after controlling for subjects’ socio-
within 3 years of follow-up, and the number of demographics, clinical findings, underlying diseases,
individuals who developed TB recurrence decreased admission history and TB course, the risk of TB
during the remainder of the follow-up period. recurrence among study subjects who smoked .10
Compared with never/former smokers, the inci- cigarettes a day was double that of never/former
dence of TB recurrence was significantly higher smokers. Other independent risk factors significantly
among study subjects who reported smoking .10 associated with TB recurrence were homelessness
cigarettes a day (log-rank statistic, P ¼ 0.001; Figure (aHR 3.75, 95%CI 1.17–12.07), presence of comor-
2). bidities (aHR 2.66, 95%CI 1.22–5.79) and a positive
Table 2 shows the factors associated with TB AFB smear (aHR 2.27, 95%CI 1.47–3.49). The
recurrence in univariate analysis. Cox proportional interaction terms between smoking status and other
hazards analysis showed that factors associated with covariates were not statistically significant in the
TB recurrence were male sex, homelessness, current multivariate analysis.
smoking of .10 cigarettes a day (reference: never/
former smoking), presence of comorbidities and
DISCUSSION
being AFB smear- or TB culture-positive.
Backward-stepwise Cox regression analysis (Table In this large cohort study of 4569 adults successfully
treated for TB, 84 (1.5%) developed a recurrence of
TB during the period 2005–2010. To our knowledge,
Table 1 Number and proportion of recurrences by year of
this is the first study to evaluate the incidence of TB
follow-up, Taipei, Taiwan
recurrence in Taiwan. The overall recurrence rate of
Events % of all cases 4.9/1000 py among adults with successful anti-
Year of follow-up n of recurrence
tuberculosis treatment is approximately 10 fold that
1 20 23.8 of new TB development among the general popula-
2 28 33.3
3 15 17.9 tion of Taipei.16 The TB recurrence rate in Taipei is
4 8 9.5 lower than that in Spain (5.3/1000 py).11 In addition,
5 10 11.9 we found that 75% of cases of TB recurrence
6 3 3.6
occurred in the first 3 years of follow-up. TB is much
Smoking increases risk of TB recurrence 495

Figure 2 Risk of TB recurrence by smoking status, Taipei, Taiwan. TB ¼ tuberculosis.

more likely among adults with a history of TB; TB patients. While patients who smoked .10 cigarettes a
patients should thus be strictly monitored even after day had a higher risk of TB recurrence among female,
completing treatment, particularly during the first 3 culture-negative or AFB-negative patients, these asso-
years. ciations were not statistically significant, which may
Previous studies have shown that TB recurrence have been due to insufficient sample size; further
rates might depend on background TB incidence.17,18 research is therefore needed.
In a comparison with other countries with similar In accordance with the WHO DOTS programme,23
low-to-moderate TB incidence, the TB recurrence current TB control policies in Taiwan attempt to
rate in Taipei was lower than that in Singapore (5.7 achieve a treatment success rate of 85% in treating
episodes/1000 py),19 but higher than that in Poland people with TB.16 Population-based TB control
(2.3 episodes/1000 py).20 International literature also requires more than simply treating active disease;
suggests that background TB incidence corresponds prevention strategies are also urgently required.24
to the rate of recurrence due to reinfection.21,22 As we Given the concerns regarding the increased risk of TB
were unable in the present study to use techniques to recurrence among smokers, interventions for smok-
genotype TB by DNA strain, which would have ing cessation should be integrated into current TB
enabled us to distinguish reinfection from relapse of control programmes. For example, health care
the same TB episode, we estimate that the proportion providers and TB case managers at clinics and local
of reinfection in our 2005–2010 population (mean health centres should proactively inform TB patients
incidence 48.5/100 000) among those with recurrent that smoking increases the risk of recurrence.25
TB was approximately 32.3%, per Wang et al.’s Moreover, incorporating smoking cessation measures
formula.21 into the DOTS programme could help promote
We found that current smokers of .10 cigarettes a quitting if treatment observers are well trained in
day had a higher risk of recurrence. Our study might advising patients to cease smoking.26
have underestimated this risk because we compared Previous studies have shown that smoking was
current smokers with never/former smokers instead significantly associated with the development of active
of with never smokers only, and smoking might still TB,27 likely because nicotine inhibits the production
have a latent effect on TB recurrence among former of tumour necrosis factor alpha by macrophages in the
smokers who quit only 3–5 years before diagnosis of lungs, thereby increasing susceptibility to the devel-
TB recurrence.10 A previous study reported that opment of progressive disease from latent M. tuber-
former smoking and TB recurrence might be posi- culosis infection.28,29 This mechanism might also
tively associated.9 To reduce the risk of recurrence, explain the development of recurrence.
effective smoking cessation measures should be This study found that homeless people had a higher
incorporated into TB control programmes. risk of TB recurrence despite having completed anti-
The study also evaluated the association between tuberculosis treatment. Previous research showed
smoking and TB recurrence after stratifying patients that homeless people are among the most disadvan-
by sex, TB culture and AFB smear. Backward-stepwise taged social groups and are susceptible to infectious
Cox regression analysis showed that smoking .10 diseases due to malnutrition and unhealthy living
cigarettes a day was significantly associated with TB conditions (e.g., on the street, in crowded shelters).30
recurrence among male and culture- and AFB-positive Moreover, delayed diagnosis and poor adherence to
496 The International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease

Table 2 Unadjusted HRs for factors associated with recurrent TB, Taipei, Taiwan, 2005–2010
Recurrent TB
Subjects
Factor n n (%) HR (95%CI) P
Age, years
18–34 948 19 (2.0) 1
35–49 907 16 (1.8) 0.93 (0.48–1.80) 0.819
50–64 1235 18 (1.5) 0.81 (0.42–1.54) 0.511
65 2477 31 (1.3) 0.79 (0.45–1.41) 0.427
Sex
Female 2063 21 (1.0) 1
Male 3504 63 (1.8) 1.90 (1.16–3.11) 0.011
Year of diagnosis
2005 1082 29 (2.7) 1
2006 985 21 (2.1) 0.90 (0.51–1.59) 0.709
2007 1016 15 (1.5) 0.78 (0.41–1.48) 0.439
2008 856 10 (1.2) 0.75 (0.35–1.59) 0.45
2009 803 6 (0.7) 0.69 (0.27–1.72) 0.423
2010 825 3 (0.4) 0.94 (0.27–3.28 0.924
Marital status
Unmarried 1306 27 (2.1) 1
Married 4242 57 (1.3) 0.70 (0.44–1.10) 0.698
Unknown 19 0 — —
Education level
No education 335 5 (1.5) 1
Elementary school 1103 19 (1.7) 0.99 (0.37–2.64 0.977
High school 1940 29 (1.5) 0.86 (0.33–2.21) 0.747
University or higher 1652 25 (1.5) 0.86 (0.33–2.23) 0.749
Unknown 537 6 (1.1) 0.58 (0.18–1.89) 0.365
Unemployed status
No 1971 30 (1.5) 1
Yes 3578 54 (1.5) 1.07 (0.68–1.67) 0.776
Unknown 18 0 — —
Homelessness
No 5521 81 (1.5) 1
Yes 46 3 (6.5) 5.67 (1.79–17.95) 0.003
Current smoking, cigarettes/day
None 4582 59 (1.3) 1
1–10 333 4 (1.2) 1.01 (0.37–2.77) 0.991
.10 652 21 (3.2) 2.54 (1.54–4.17) ,0.001
Any alcohol use
No 5088 75 (1.5) 1
Yes 464 9 (1.9) 1.41 (0.71–2.81) 0.331
Unknown 15 0 — —
Comorbidities*
No 5326 77 (1.4) 1
Yes 241 7 (2.9) 2.93 (1.35–6.37) 0.007
Acid-fast bacilli smear
Negative 3644 38 (1.0) 1
Positive 1923 46 (2.4) 2.43 (1.58–3.74) ,0.001
TB culture
Negative 2097 21 (1.0) 1
Positive 3470 63 (1.8) 2.14 (1.30–3.50) 0.003
Cavities on CXR
No 4550 64 (1.4) 1
Yes 1017 20 (2.0) 1.35 (0.82–2.24) 0.236
Pleural effusion on CXR
No 4989 77 (1.5) 1
Yes 578 7 (1.2) 0.83 (0.38–1.80) 0.633
Extra-pulmonary TB
No 4903 77 (1.6) 1
Yes 664 7 (1.1) 0.63 (0.29–1.36) 0.236
Source of notification
Out-patient services 3513 49 (1.4) 1
Ordinary ward 1961 33 (1.7) 1.29 (0.83–2.01) 0.257
Intensive care unit 93 2 (2.2) 1.77 (0.43–7.30) 0.427
Duration of treatment, months
9 3158 42 (1.3) 1
.9 2409 42 (1.7) 1.46 (0.95–2.23) 0.081
*Including malignancies and human immunodeficiency virus infection.
HR ¼ hazard ratio; TB ¼ tuberculosis; CI ¼ confidence interval; CXR ¼ chest radiograph.
Smoking increases risk of TB recurrence 497

Table 3 Adjusted HRs for factors associated with recurrent TB, Acknowledgements
Taipei, Taiwan, 2005–2010 The authors wish to thank registered nurses J-C Hsiao, M-Y Chen,
Factors Adjusted HR* 95%CI and C-C Pan for interviewing the subjects and reviewing their
medical records; and the Research Office for Health Data,
Current smoking, cigarettes/day Department of Education and Research, Taipei City Hospital,
None 1
Taiwan, for their valuable contributions to data management and
1–10 0.86 0.31–2.38
.10 2.04 1.22–3.41 statistical analysis.
Conflict of interest: none declared.
Homelessness 3.75 1.17–12.07
Comorbidities† 2.66 1.22–5.79
AFB positivity 2.27 1.47–3.49 References
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Smoking increases risk of TB recurrence i

RESUME
O B J E C T I F : Evaluer si le fait de fumer augmente le régression de risques proportionnels de Cox a montré,
risque de récurrence de tuberculose (TB) et identifier les après contrôle des autres variables, que le risque de
facteurs associés à cette récurrence parmi des patients récurrence de TB parmi les patients qui fumaient .10
qui avaient terminé avec succès leur traitement anti- cigarettes par jour était le double de celui des patients qui
tuberculeux à Taipei, Taiwan. n’avaient jamais fumé ou avaient arrêté. Les autres
M E T H O D E S : Une récurrence a été définie comme un facteurs de risque ind épendants significativement
nouveau diagnostic clinique ou microbiologique de TB associés à la récurrence de la TB étaient l’absence de
nécessitant la mise en route d’un nouveau protocole de domicile fixe (aHR 3,75 ; IC95% 1,17–12,07), la
traitement chez un patient qui avait achevé avec succès le présence d’autres pathologies (aHR 2,66 ; IC95%
traitement de l’épisode de TB précédent. Le modèle de 1,22–5,79) et un frottis positif aux bacilles acido-
risque proportionnel de Cox a permis de mesurer les résistants (aHR 2,27 ; IC95% 1,47–3,49).
ratios de risque ajusté (aHR) de récurrence. C O N C L U S I O N : Le fait de fumer .10 cigarettes par
R E S U L T A T S : Nous avons suivi 5567 adultes à la jour était significativement associé à la récurrence de la
recherche d’une récurrence après un traitement réussi. TB. Nous avons recommandé d’inclure des mesures
Leur âge moyen était de 58,5 ans et 62,9% étaient des efficaces d’arrêt du tabac dans les programmes de lutte
hommes. Parmi eux, 84 (1,5%) ont eu une récurrence de contre la TB afin de réduire ce risque, comme le
TB pendant le suivi. L’incidence de la récurrence était préconise la stratégie Stop TB de l’Organisation
4,9 épisodes pour 1000 personnes-années de suivi. La Mondiale de la Santé.

RESUMEN
OBJETIVO: Investigar si el tabaquismo aumenta el de seguimiento. El modelo de riesgos proporcionales de
riesgo de sufrir una recaı́da de la tuberculosis (TB) y Cox puso en evidencia que tras corregir otras variables,
examinar los factores asociados con la misma en los el riesgo de recaı́da en las personas que fumaban .10
adultos que habı́an completado con éxito el tratamiento cigarrillos por dı́a era dos veces mayor que el riesgo de
antituberculoso en Taipéi, Taiwán. las personas que nunca habı́an fumado o que habı́an
M É T O D O S : Se definió la recaı́da como un nuevo abandonado el hábito. Otros factores independientes
diagnóstico clı́nico o microbiológico de TB que exige que se asociaron de manera significativa con el riesgo de
el comienzo de otro ciclo terapéutico en un paciente que recaı́da de la TB fueron la carencia de domicilio (aHR
habı́a completado de manera satisfactoria el tratamiento 3,75; IC95% 1,17 - 12,07), las enfermedades
de un episodio previo de TB. Se aplicaron modelos concomitantes (aHR 2,66; IC95% 1,22 - 5,79) y una
proporcionales de Cox con el fin de medir los cocientes baciloscopia positiva (aHR 2,27; IC%95 1,47 - 3,49).
de riesgos ajustados (aHR) de recaı́da. C O N C L U S I Ó N : Fumar .10 cigarrillos por dı́a se asoció
R E S U LT A D O S : Se vigiló la aparición de recaı́da en 5567 de manera significativa con la recaı́da de TB. A fin de
adultos después de un tratamiento antituberculoso disminuir el riesgo de recaı́da se recomienda integrar a
eficaz. El promedio de la edad fue 58,5 años y 62,9% los programas de lucha contra la TB, medidas eficaces
fueron hombres. En general, 84 pacientes presentaron que favorezcan el abandono del tabaquismo, como lo
recaı́da durante el seguimiento (1,5%); la incidencia de promueve la Estrategia Alto a la Tuberculosis de la
recaı́da de TB fue 4,9 episodios por 1000 años-persona Organización Mundial de la Salud.

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