Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
INDONESIA’S RECENT
ECONOMIC UPDATES, PROSPECT
AND BANK INDONESIA’S POLICY MIX
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
OUTLINE
PROSPECT AND RISKS
US ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY (EPU) DEPRECIATED OF CNY EXCHANGE RATE AND OTHER COUNTRIES
GLOBAL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH
∆ ∆ ∆
INDONESIA’S ECONOMY REMAINS RESILIENT
∆
∆
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
DOMESTIC ECONOMY HAS ACCELERATED SIGNIFICANTLY
ECONOMIC GROWTH BY EXPENDITURE (%, YOY) ECONOMIC RECOVERY PATH (%, YOY)
5.7
5.27
5.3
5.1
5.06
4.9
4.74 4.7
4.5
HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION RECORDED A HIGHER GROWTH
FARMERS TERMS OF TRADE AND REAL WAGE GROWTH CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
INVESTMENT REMAINED SOLID
Mining
GROWING DOMESTIC DEMAND HAS PROMPTED A SURGE
OF IMPORTS
CONTRIBUTION OF OIL&GAS AND NON-OIL&GAS IMPORT NON-OIL AND GAS IMPORT (REAL VALUE)
EXPORT GROWTH INCREASED AS GLOBAL ECONOMY
RECOVERED
CONTRIBUTION OF OIL & GAS AND NON-OIL & GAS EXPORT NON-OIL & GAS EXPORT PRICES
Total Manufacture
Mining Agriculture
BROAD-BASED ECONOMIC GROWTH
≥ ≤ ≤ ≤ ≤
CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT WIDENED
CURRENT ACCOUNT
CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT POSTED HIGHER SURPLUS
BALANCE OF PAYMENT
TRADE BALANCE DEFICIT IN LINE WITH ROBUST DOMESTIC
ECONOMY ACTIVITY
TRADE BALANCE
RESERVE ASSETS REMAINED HIGH
1,5
0
1
2
3
2002M01
2002M08
2003M03
2003M10
2004M05
2004M12
Normal-Stable
2005M07
2006M02
2006M09
2007M04
2007M11
2008M06
Normal-Alert
2009M01
2009M08
2010M03
2010M10
2011M05
2011M12
2012M07
Normal Standy
2013M02
2013M09
2014M04
2014M11
THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM STABILITY INDEX (ISSK)
Crisis
2015M06
2016M01
2016M08
2017M03
ISSK
2017M10
1.09
2018M05
THE BANKING SYSTEMIC RISK INDEX (IRSP)
FINANCIAL SYSTEM STABILITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED
BANKING INTERMEDIATION CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE
∆
MSMEs CREDIT GROWTH REMAINED HIGH
Data as of Q1-2017 & Q1-2018 (430 corporations); Source : Financial Repots in Indonesia Stock Exchange, Bloomberg, calculated
SHORT-TERM DEBT REPAYMENT CAPACITY OF NON-FCs
RELATIVELY IMPROVED
Data as of Q1-2017 & Q1-2018 (430 Corporations); Source : Financial Reports in Indonesia Stock Exchange, Bloomberg, calculated
PAYMENT SYSTEM FOR LARGE VALUE AND RETAIL
TRANSACTIONS INCREASED
CURRENCY IN CIRCULATION
POLICY FOCUSES:
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