SY B.

Tech(E&TC) :2017-18 System Engineering-ET201

Experiment No. 1 Date:________________

Developing causal loop diagrams using Vensim

Objectives
 To use Vensim software for solving problems in system engineering
 To Develop Causal loop diagram (CLD) for a system
 TO identify cause and effect links and different loops in system
Equipment
 Venzim software

Aim: Community Based Causal Mapping: Developing causal loop diagrams using Vensim.
Theory:
Causal Loop Diagrams

A causal loop diagram (CLD) is a causal diagram that aids in visualizing how different variables in a
system are interrelated. The diagram consists of a set of nodes and edges. Nodes represent the variables
and edges are the links that represent a connection or a relation between the two variables.

CLDs help us to understand and depict the feedback mechanisms that are generated within complex
systems which include the relationships, dynamics, and delays associated with the variables that
generate them.

They offer a practical way to understand and express the systems’ interrelated parts and the cause-
effect linkages for the problem in question.

CLDs are composed of two components; variables and influences (links).

An influence has direction shown by an arrow and an indicator as to whether the influenced element is
changed in the same (+) or opposite (-) direction as the influencing element. That is, a link from
element A
to element B ( ) may be positive if a change in A produces a change in the same direction,
or negative ( ) if a change in A produces a change in B in the opposite direction.

A change in element A which produces a change in element B only after a delay is denoted by

Feedback loops occur when arrows connect a variable to itself through a series of other variable.

There are two main types of feedback loops that can be expressed using CLDs:

1. Balancing
2. Reinforcing loops.

Balancing loops apply where there is an attempt to solve a problem or achieve a goal. They are also
SY B.Tech(E&TC) :2017-18 System Engineering-ET201

called neutralizing loops, where cause and effect cycles seek to counter a change with a push in the
opposite direction. Fig 1 shows a balancing loop whose goal is to increase the mothers’ participation in
health services. As more mothers participate in health services, the workload increases, thus increasing
the waiting times resulting in frustration, which in turn lowers the participation. Reinforcing loops
represent a growing action where each action adds to another and may be referred to as virtuous cycles
when they produce desirable effects or vicious cycles when they produce negative effects. Fig 1 also
shows a reinforcing loop where growing participation in health service arising from safe deliveries
results in increased trust, which further increases participation.

Fig1: Example of balancing and reinforcing loops.

Case Study

There are a couple of ways to approach this process. From experience one of the more useful ways is to
surface a seed model using your IRD. Identify your outcome of interest and look at the drivers of that
outcome, thinking about the level at which you are operating. Use this as the seed (you can have a couple of
drivers but don’t over complicate to begin). Now working between your IRD and your seed model, start
adding in the variables that are linked to your outcome and driver(s).

Death risk
of neonate

Level of awareness
of MHC and NHC Safe deliveries
and PNC

Mothers attending
ANC, hospital deliveries
and PNC

…and building onto the model by including more variables

SY B.Tech(E&TC) :2017-18 System Engineering-ET201

Death risk
of neonate

neonatal survival

level of awareness
of MHC and NHC Safe deliveries
health education and PNC
by health
workers

mothers' birth
preparedness

Mothers attending ANC,

hospital deliveries and
PNC

At this phase it can be helpful to print a copy of your IRD (or work on two screens!) Using a highlighter, trace the loops
that are associated with the outcome. You may find that some of the smaller loops are redundant with respect to larger,
more encompassing loops. If this is the case, you can delete arrows that indicate redundant loops. You may identify cases
in which you can delete an arrow indicating a direct relationship where in fact an indirect relationship better illustrates the
pathway of effect (For example: Your map shows that AC, but also that ABC. If the latter relationship captures the
mechanism of effect whereby A drives C, then you can delete the arrow directly connecting A and C).

Example—Adding variables and arrows to the IRD for the ―Dynamics of Neonatal Mortality in Uganda‖ case study

neonatal survival

perceptions care of
newborn
death risk
and belief in
myths of neonate safe
deliveries
and PNC

health
education by
health workers
level of awareness
of MHC and NHC mothers attending
ANC, hospital
deliveries and PNC resource adequacy
(staffing, drugs,
logistics and
mothers' birth
supplies)
preparedness
socio-economic
status

Note: If you have used VENSIM to create your IRD, you can also use the ―Loops‖ tool to identify the feedback loops in
your IRD.
SY B.Tech(E&TC) :2017-18 System Engineering-ET201

As you work through this process you may discover that instead of deleting you need to add arrows. During
the IRD stage, for example, you may have had to draw a unidirectional arrow between two variables when in
fact the variables are re-enforcing. At this stage you can add arrows to indicate that variables influence each
other.

Example—continuing to add variables and arrows to the CLD for the ―Dynamics of Neonatal Mortality in
Uganda‖ case study

neonatal survival

perceptions care of
newborn
death risk
and belief in
myths of neonate safe
deliveries
and PNC

health
education by
health workers
level of awareness
of MHC and NHC mothers attending
ANC, hospital
deliveries and PNC resource adequacy
(staffing, drugs,
mothers' birth logistics and
preparedness supplies)
socio-economic
status
SY B.Tech(E&TC) :2017-18 System Engineering-ET201

Significant delays. Identify which (if any) links have significant delays relative to the rest of the diagram. It is
important to identify these delays as they are often the source of imbalances that accumulate in the system.
You can depict a delay in the system by using to small parallel lines as follows:

Causal Loop Diagrams.

First, remember that less is better. Start small and simple; add more elements to the story as necessary.

Show the story in parts. The number of elements in a loop should be determined by the needs of the story and
of the people using the diagram. A simple description might be enough to stimulate dialogue and provide a
new way to see a problem. In other situations, you may need more loops to clarify the causal relationships you
are surfacing.

Also keep in mind that people often think that a diagram has to incorporate all possible variables from a story;
this is not necessarily true. In some cases, there are external elements that don’t change, change very slowly, or
whose changes are irrelevant to the problem at hand. You can unnecessarily complicate things by including
such details, especially those over which you have little or no control. Some of the most effective loops reveal
connections or relationships between parts of the organization or system that the group may not have noticed
before.

And last, don’t worry about whether a loop is ―right‖; instead, ask yourself whether the loop accurately
reflects the story your group is trying to depict. Loops are shorthand descriptions of what we perceive as
current reality; if they reflect that perspective, they are ―right‖ enough.

Extracted from:
Goodman, M. Systems thinking: what, why, when, where, and how? The Systems Thinker 8(2) 1997
SY B.Tech(E&TC) :2017-18 System Engineering-ET201

RUBRIC FOR CAUSAL LOOP DIAGRAMS

For use with the Rubric for Understanding
CATEGORY MEETS COMMENTS
VARIABLES (the words) All variables are nouns.
All nouns used represent quantities
worth measuring in terms of the
causality which the loop is intended to
explain.
CONNECTIONS All +/- (s/o) relationships identified.
BETWEEN VARIABLES Arrows connect related variables.
(+ / – and S /O ) Each arrow represents a causal
relationship.
Arrows show some kind of feedback.
Connections are based on evidence or
data or reasonable hypothesis.
Delays are indicated.
USEFULNESS The diagram leads to a better
understanding of the feedback loops
governing the behavior in question.
A brief description tracing the feedback
loops is included in the written project
summary
SY B.Tech(E&TC) :2017-18 System Engineering-ET201

Conclusion: