Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Naoyuki YOSHINO
Dean, Asian Development Bank Institute
Professor Emeritus, Keio University, Japan
Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary
Assistant Professor Waseda University Japan 1
Fin Tech Development and Financial Activities
Outlines
Development of Fin Tech will change Financing for
Start ups and SMEs
Big Data will enable SMEs’ credit rating
Access to Finance ---- Easy by individuals
Debt Overhang by households
Financial Education
Government Promotion of Program to promote financial
education
2
Barriers for SMEs in Accessing Financial Institutions,
Collateral, Higher interest rate, long term process
Source: ADB–OECD study on enhancing financial accessibility for SMEs: Lessons from recent crises.
Mandaluyong City, Philippines: Asian Development Bank, 2013 3
Basel Capital requirement:
Lending to Riskier Sectors and Lower Upper Lending Limit for Banks
1/14/2018 4
Theoretical Model for Implementation of HITs
In this sub-section we will explain theoretically why banks are not able to lend to smaller-scale risky sectors such as green energy projects (e.g., solar
and wind).
Equation 1 and Equation 2 present the profit maximization behaviour of banks:
Max 𝑳 𝟏 𝑯 𝑯 𝑯 𝑫 𝟏 𝑯
Banks’s balance sheet 𝟏 𝑯 (2)
Equation 1 shows the profit equation of bank (𝜋). We are assuming there are two kinds of loans banks are providing—the first kind are zero default
risk loans (𝐿 ) which are ordinary loans provided at a lower interest rate (𝑟 ); the second kind are loans to risky sectors (𝐿 ) at a higher interest rate
(𝑟 ). We are assuming that the first group of loans are zero risk and the second group has risk of default (𝜌 ). In this equation 𝐷 denotes total
deposits and 𝑟 is the interest rate on deposits. In addition, banks’ profits is also a function of banks’ operational costs (𝐶) such as employee wages
and computer and equipment costs, which is a function of both groups of loans. The profit maximization of banks is subject to banks’ balance sheets
(Eq. 2) where 𝐴 is the banks’ capital.
(3)
Each bank has to have enough capital (A) to be able to cover its possible default loan losses ( 𝜌 . 𝐿 ). As the risk of default exists only for the
second group of loans (high risk loans), the total amount of default loan losses are 𝜌 . 𝐿 . Total lending to both groups is denoted by : 𝐿 = 𝐿 +
𝐿 .
We assume that banks are subject to capital requirement rules (Eq. 3), i.e., according to the Basel capital requirement there is an 8% capital
requirement ratio, (𝜃 = 0.08). Equation 3 means that the default amount needs to be less than 8% of the total loans (total assets) and banks
need to reserve at least an equal amount of capital. This means that based on the given amount of capital, if 𝜌 goes up, lending to risky sectors
(𝐿 ) should go down.
5
𝐶 𝐿 ,𝐿 = 𝑎𝐿 + 𝑏𝐿 (4)
Equation 4 shows the cost function, which we assume to be a
simple quadratic type; it is a function of both groups of lending
(𝐿 , 𝐿 ) and applying first order conditions give us two loan supply
equations:
= 𝑟 − 𝑟 − 2𝑎𝐿 = 0 (5)
𝐿 = 𝑟 −𝑟 (6)
Equation 6 shows the loan supply equation for the first group of
loans, which are risk- free loans.
= 𝑟 − 𝜌 ́ − 𝑟 − 2𝑏𝐿 = 0 (7)
𝑺
𝑯 𝑯 𝑫
Equaion 8 shows the loan supply equation for the second group of
loans, i.e. the risky loans. For this group, as the default risk is
high, if 𝜌 ́ increases the loan supply falls.
𝐿 ≤ 𝐿 = (9)
Equation 9 shows the upper limit of loan supply to risky sectors
7/21/2018 6
due to the Basel capital requirements.
Declining Loans Supply to Risky Borrowers
7/21/2018 7
Start up businesses and farmers
Hometown Investment Trust Funds
(Springer)
--------------------------------------------------
A Stable Way to Supply Risk Capital
Yoshino, Naoyuki; Kaji Sahoko (Eds.) 2013,
Japan, Cambodia
Vietnam, Peru, Mongolia
Access to Digital Technology, Internet
(1) Purchasing Type of Hometown Trust
(2) Investment Type of Hometiwn Trust
8
Internet On-line trade
Start ups
Internet Consumers
Farmers Company
Advertize
Innovators
FSA:Registration
9
10
TRUST is important
1, Regular meetings with producers (every quarter)
2, Look for good products and advertise by
internet
3, Give advise to innovators
4, Order the products though internet
5, Payment and Delivery
6, Reputation
7, Trust of community, Trust by customers
11
(1) Purchase Type
(2) Investment Type
Roof top, solar Fund
300 $/ per person
12
Government Financing (Externality Effects)
1/14/2018 14
Financing Scheme for Renewable Energy
Projects Using HITs and Carbon Tax
Subsidies
From TAX on CO2
Spillover Tax revenues
HIT = Hometown Investment Trust Fund.
Source: Authors.
1/14/2018 15
Possible Solutions
by use of community funds
For Risky businesses
10/14/2016 17
5, Financial Education for SMEs
1, Bookkeeping
2, Daily revenue and expenses
3, Long-term planning
4, Accurate reporting of their business
5, Reduce default loan losses
SME database
6, Asset Management by SME
7, Pension Contribution by SME (50%)
Asset Management of Reserves
18
19
20
21
22
Development of Financial Technology
1, Access to financial products through mobile
phone
2, Financial products can be supplied from
overseas
3, Households can shop around various financial
products through mobile phone
4, Easy for individuals to access to credit
Households’ Debt Overhang
5, Financial education will be very important23
Financial
Education
Naoyuki Yoshino
and
Peter Morgan
(ADBInstitute)
Household debt level in South Korea
and
USA Housing Loan
Korea: HHs/NPISHs/Small Pvt Ents Outstanding Debt to Disposable I... US: Ratio of Household & Nonprofit Debt to SAAR Gross Disposable...
% %
150 150
110 110
140 140
100 100
130 130
90 90
120 120
110 110 80 80
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 00 05 10 15
Source: Bank of Korea/Haver Analytics Source: Federal Reserve Board/Haver Analytics
South Korea: HH debt to disposable income (%) US: HH debt to disposable income (%)
26
Consumers’ Debt Overhand in Japan
27
28
Theoretical Model
rL t 1 C t Yt L t .......... .......... (1)
C t cY t
Yt (1 a )Yt 1
Y p y
a
Y p y
From (1), we can get -
rL n 1 cY n Y n ( L n L n 1 )
L n (1 r ) L n 1 (1 c )Y n
L n (1 r )(1 r ) L n 2 (1 c )Y n 1 (1 c )Y n
.......... ...
L n (1 r ) n L 0 (1 c ) (1 r ) n 1 (1 a ) (1 r ) n 2 (1 a ) 2 (1 a ) n Y0
(1 c )(1 a )
L n (1 r ) n L 0
(r a)
(1 r ) n (1 a ) n Y0
(1 c )(1 a )
L n (1 r ) n L 0
(r a)
(1 r ) n (1 a ) n Y0 0
L n
0 (1 c )(1 a ) 1 1 a
Y (r a) 1 r
0 29
L n
0 (1 c )(1 a ) 1 1 a
Y (r a) 1 r
0
0 10 20 30
n
ratio_05 ratio_10
ratio_12 ratio_15
ratio_20
39
Naoyuki Yoshino, Peter Morgan and Trin Long (ADBI discussion Paper)
(1) Score of Male and Female, Age
(2) US-Japan Comparison
Proportion of those who had high score (21/25-25/25), roughly top 20% (as figure 35 in BoJ book)
40
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
0.0%
5.0%
Hokkaido
Aomori
Iwate
Miyaki
Akita
Yamagata
Fukushima
Ibaraki
Tochigi
Gumma
Saitama
Chiba
Tokyo
% buy stock
Shizuoka
Aichi
Mie
Shiga
Kyoto
Osaka
% trust
Hyogo
Nara
Wakayama
Tottori
Shimare
Okayama
Hiroshima
Financial literacy and financial product purchased
Yamaguchi
Tokushima
% foreign currency
Kagawa
Regional Disparities in Japan
Ehime
Koichi
Fukuoka
Saga
Nagasaki
Kumamoto
Fin. Literacy
Oita
Miyazaki
Kagoshima
Okinawa
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
Cluster Analysis of Prefectures
Dendrogram from cluster analysis
4
3
L2 dissimilarity measure
2
1
0
1 2 3 8 6 5 7 4 32 35 37 41 9 13 12 14 11 10 15 17 21 20 16 22 18 19 23 30 31 39 34 36 38 33 40 24 25 28 27 43 42 44 47 45 46 26 29
Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Group 5
Yamagata Wakayama Nagano Hyogo Okinawa
Yamanashi Miyazaki Okayama Saitama
Tottori Koichi Tokushima Osaka
Ishikawa Akita Nara Fukuoka
5 groups Nagasaki Yamaguchi Kumamoto Miyagi
Of Tochigi Shimane Gifu Chiba
Prefectures Toyama
Ibaraki
Kagawa
Kagoshima
Aichi
Shiga
Based on Hokkaido Shizuoka Kanagawa
JAPAN Mie
Saga
Aomori
Hiroshima
Iwate
43
Distribution of financial literacy, product
purchases and education by income
Source: Authors 44
Distribution of purchases of financial
products by financial literacy score Stock,
Trust, Foreign Currency
Source: Authors
45
Transmission of Financial Education
1, Efficient allocation of assets by households
2, Long-term perspectives of households
3, Enhance wellbeing of individuals
4, Diversify corporate fund raising
5, Efficient cash management of corporations
6, Transparency of SMEs (small enterprises)
7, Promotion of start-up businesses
8, Enhance economic growth
9, Efficient time allocation of financial
institutions
46
Financial Technology (Fin Tech)
1, FinTech and Easy Access to Finance
2, Opening of Accounts, Identification
3, Access to various financial products
4, Regulation of FinTech companies
Registration of Fin Tech industries
5, Easy access to various financial products of
all over the world by mobile phone
6, International regulation
47
48