Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
John F. B. Mitchell
Meteorological
Office,Brackne!l,
England
Abstract.Thepresence
of radiatively
activegasesin the prediction
of changes
in temperature
overthenext50 years
Earth's atmosphere(water vapor, carbon dioxide, and dependsonassumptionsconcerning futurechanges in trace
ozone)raisesits globalmeansurfacetemperature by 30 K, gas concentrations,
the sensitivityof climate, and the
makingour planethabitableby life as we know it. There effective thermal inertia of the oceans. On the basis of our
has been an increase in carbon dioxide and other trace currentunderstanding a furtherwarmingof at least 1 K
gasessincetheIndustrialRevolution,largelyasa resultof seemslikely. Numerical modelsof climate indicate that
man's activities,increasingthe radiativeheatingof the thechanges will notbe uniform,nor will theybe confined
troposphere andsurface byabout 2 W m-2.Thisheating is to temperature.The simulatedwarmingis largestin high
likely to be enhanced by resultingchanges in watervapor, latitudesin winter and smallestover sea ice in summer,
snowand seaice, and cloud. The associated equilibrium with little seasonalvariationin the tropics. Annualmean
temperaturerise is estimatedto be between 1 and 2 K, precipitationand runoff increasein high latitudes,and
there being uncertaintiesin the strengthof climate most simulations indicate a drier land surface in northern
feedbacks, particularlythosedue to cloud. The large mid-latitudes in summer.The agreement betweendifferent
thermalinertiaof theoceans will slowtherateof warming, modelsis muchbetterfor temperature thanfor changesin
so that the expectedtemperature rise will be smallerthan the hydrologicalcycle. Priorities for future research
theequilibrium rise. Thisincreases theuncertainty in the includedevelopingan improvedrepresentation of cloudin
expectedwarmingto date, with estimatesrangingfrom numericalmodels,obtaininga betterunderstanding of
less than 0.5 K to over 1 K. The observed increase of 0.5 verticalmixing in the deepocean,and determiningthe
K since1900is consistent with the lowerrangeof these inherentvariability of the ocean-atmosphere system.
estimates, but the variabilityin theobservedrecordis such Progress in these areas should enable detection of a
that one cannot necessarilyconcludethat the observed man-made"greenhouse" warming within the next two
temperature changeis dueto increases in tracegases.The decades.
1. INTRODUCTION Numericalclimatemodelsindicatethatotherchanges
in
climate would accompanythe increasein globally
Our planetis madehabitableby thepresenceof certain averagedtemperature, with potentiallyseriouseffectson
gaseswhich trap long-waveradiationemitted from the many societaland economicactivities.
Earth's surface,giving a globalmeantemperatureof 15øC, Thisreviewattempts toanswer severalquestions.
as opposedto an estimated-18øC in the absenceof an Whatis thegreenhouse effect(section2)?
atmosphere.This phenomenon is popularlyknown as the Whichgasesareimportant andwhy(section3)?
"greenhouse" effect. By far themostimportantgreenhouse What are theexpected changes in theconcentrationof
gas is water vapor. However, there is a substantial greenhouse gases(section4)?
contribution from carbon dioxide and smaller contributions What are the potentialclimatic effects,and how are
from ozone, methane, and nitrous oxide. theydetermined(section5)?
The concentrationsof carbon dioxide, methane, and Howwill thechanges in climateevolve(section6), and
nitrousoxideare all knownto be increasing,and in recent whenwill webe ableto detectthem(section7)?
years,othergreenhouse gases,principallychlorofluorocar- The aim here is to outlinethe physicalbasisof the
bons (CFCs), have been addedin significantquantifiesto projectedchangesin climate due to enhancingthe
the atmosphere.Thereare manyuncertainties in deducing greenhouse
effect and to identify the main areas of
the consequentialclimatic effects. Typically, it is esti- uncertainty.This review will, therefore,be selectiverather
matedthat increasedconcentrations of thesegasessince thancomprehensive.
For a moredetailedandcomplete
1860mayhaveraisedglobalmeansurfacetemperatures by discussion
of thegreenhouse
effectthereaderis referredto
0.5øC or so, and the projectedconcentrationscould the major reviewsedited by MacCrackenand Luther
producea warmingof about1.5øCover the next 40 years. [1985] andBolin et al. [1986].
,..
ß 115 ß
116 . REVIEWS
OF GEOPHYSICS
/ 27,1 Mitchell: "GREENHOUSE" EFFECT
• • /• •Gaseousabs.
or.ption
andis approximately in radiativeequilibrium.
In the presenceof an atmosphere, muchof the long-
mission wave emissionto spaceemanatesfrom the atmospheric
gasesratherthanthe surface.Thus the level at which the
effectiveradiatingtemperature
T• occurs(the mean
(b) With atmosphere radiatingheight)is raisedabovethe surface. The mean
radiating height varies principally with the infrared
opacity. ThusMars, with a relativelythinatmosphere, has
A perfectemitter,or blackbody,emitsradiationovera a small mean radiating height and a weak greenhouse
rangeof wavelengths.The distribution of energyemitted effect, whereasVenus, with its dense,highly absorbing
with wavelengthis a functionof the temperature of the carbondioxide atmosphere,has a large mean radiating
emitter: the hotterthe emitter,the shorterthe wavelength heightanda very stronggreenhouse effect(Table 1). The
of peak emission. Thus the Sun, which has a surface Earth has a mean radiatingheight of 5.5 km (Figure 4,
temperature of 6000 K, emitsmostradiationin therange point a)andaglobal mean lapserateof6 K km4, giving a
of 0.2-4 !.tm, (includingultraviolet,visible, and near- current
greenhouse warmingof 33 K.
infraredwavelengths), whereasthe Earthat 255 K emits Increasing the concentrationof greenhousegases
mainlyin the range4-100 !.tm(long-waveradiation;see increasesthe meanradiatingheightto a level wherethe
Figure 2a). temperatureis lessthantheeffectiveradiatingtemperature
Mitchell: "GREENHOUSE" EFFECT 27,1 / REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS ß 117
BlackBody /,,--%
uJ
0.1
Curve •
0.15
50000
1.0 1.5
Wavenumber(cm-•)
5000
2 3
2000
5
1428 1000
10
663
15 20
333
30
200
50
A
100
100
Wavelength pm
100
Ground
80-
Level
H20 (Rotation)
40-
B
20-
o
o
I
02 02
I I
02
1
03 IJUll LJ II .oJL
I IIoc;,iI.o Iii • •I o,
illill I
II L'! .o
// H20 ,.• I I N20 I Ii co,
OH4
co 4 CF2CI2
Figure 2. (a) Spectraldistributionof long-waveemissionfrom the top of the atmosphere
to the surface. Noticethe compara-
blackbodiesat 6000 K and 255 K, correspondingto the mean tively weakabsorptionof the solarspectrum andthe regionof
emittingtemperaturesof the Sun andEarth, respectively,and (b) weak absorptionfrom 8 to 12 !xm in the long-wavespectrum
percentageof atmosphericabsorptionfor radiationpassingfrom [fromMacCrackenandLuther,1985].
SPACE INCOMING
SOLAR OUTGOINGRADIATION
RADI ATI ON Shortwave Longwave
100 8 17 6 9 40 20
ATMO
S.HR [• / / // " t
\X•Backscattered/ t
Absorbed
by •
/ %••y?ir //
\ X •' /•
Net
Emission
Water
•
Vapor, ' '
by
Emission
Water
Vapor
' 19 \• xReflected/ /, CO
2'O3 byClouds
Water
Vapor, •
• 106
CO2'O3
• La•ent
Absorbedby •
• Reflected r • HeatFlux
Clouds
• bySurface Sensible
• LONGWAVE
Absorbed
46
Heat
•Flux
RADIATION 115 100 7 24
OCEAN, LAND
Enhanced 3.1.WhatDetermines
theWavelengths
of Absorption?
Gasesabsorb andemitradiationat wavelengths
which
•--•'k•
Present TROPOSPHERE
correspond to transitions
betweendiscreteenergylevels.
The relationbetweenthe changein energylevelAE and
I'- Meanradiating
thewavelength 3•of associated
radiation
isgivenby
heights
AE = h/2x3•
Principalabsorbtion
bands
Concentration, Position, Strength,
cm'! Greenhouse
Gas ppm cm
'• atm
'•cm'•STP heating,
W m'2
Themainabsorption
bands
andbandstrengths
(ameasure of theprobability
of a molecule
absorbing
aphoton
atthebandwavelength)
areshownforthelessabundantgases.
tion,despite
theirrelatively
bandsin or near this
rangeand contributeto the trappingof long-waveradia-
lowconcentrations
(Table
2).
I I I I I I I II
Absorption
by thesegases
is relatively
strong
(Table2)
and
close
tosaturation,
and
their
absorption
lines
partially
overlap
those
of other;gases.
Theireffectincreases
asthe
squarerootof theirconcentrations
(Figure6).
Finally,
therearesome
gases
present
in verysmall
quantifies
whichhavestrongabsorption
linesin the
atmospheric
windowand little overlapwith othergases.
I I I I
0 1 2 3 4
Concentration
[ CFC 11,
Methane CFC 12(ppb)
(ppm)
I [ I I I I I [ I
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4
Figure6. Greenhouse
heating
dueto traces
gases(in wattsper
square
meter),
showing
(topscale)
concentration
of CO2(inparts
permillion;notethatthebaselinevalueis 275 ppmandthecurve
showsthe extraheatingdue to increases abovethat level. The
1
current
heating
duetoCO2isabout
50W m'2.),(middle
scale)
concentration of CFCll and CFC12 (partsper billion) and of
Wave number
methane(partsper million),and(bottomscale)concentration of
Figure 5. Schematicillustrationof weak, intermediate,
and nitrousoxide(parts;per million). The trianglesdenote1985
stronglineabsorption
[fromMacCracken andLuther,1985]. concentrations.
120 ø REVIEWSOF GEOPHYSICS / 27,1 Mitchell: "GREENHOUSE" EFFECT
Assumed1860 AQ Estimated
2035 Estimated
AQ
Concentration 1860-1985, Concentration 1985-2035,
Gas ppm Wm'2 ppm Wm'2
4.4. Nitrous
Oxide(N20)
The preindustrialconcentration
has been estimatedto
be0.28ppm[Bolinetal., 1986],though
lowervalues
have
beenquoted[WormMeteorological Organization,
1985].
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 The increaseto the presentamountaccounts
for an extra
(b) Year heating
of 0.05W m'2. Thecurrent
rateof increase
is
0.2% per year [Weiss,1981],which,if maintained,
would
producea concentration of 0.332 ppm in 2035. The
concentrations
are increasingat a rate of 1.5 ppm sourcesof tropospheric
N20 are believedto include
(equivalent
to 0.48%) per year, which,if maintained,microbial
processes
in soilandwater,nitrogen
fertilizers,
wouldgivea concentration
of 420 ppmby 2035. Most andfossilfuelandagricultural
burning.Themainsinkis
scenarios
assumea gradualincreasein emissionrates. A photolysis
in thestratosphere
withthe O(•D) stateof
growthin emission ratesof 1.4%peryearassuming 50% atomicoxygen. Giventhe sketchynatureof our under-
of fossilfuelCO2 remains in theatmosphere(scenario
B standing
of the N20 budget,projection of the future
[Trabalkaet al., 1986]) wouldgive a concentration
of concentrationsmust be regarded as speculative.
about475ppmby 2035,consistent withthatassumedby Ramanathanet al. [1985] assumea 2030 value of 0.375
122 ß REVIEWSOF GEOPHYSICS/ 27,1 Mitchell: "GREENHOUSE"EFFECT
ppm on the basis of the simple model used by Weiss Since many of the chemicalprocessesare nonlinear,the
[1981]; here we adopt a concentrationof 0.38 ppm by simpleextrapolationsusedin Table 3 may not be valid.
2035,contributing
a further
0.15W m'2tothegreenhouse
This and otheruncertainties,
particularlythoserelatedto
effect(Table 3). industrial
production,
shouldbe bornein mindin assessing
the valuesquotedin Table 3.
4.5. Chlorofluoromethanes (CFC11 and CFC12) The estimatedincreasein long-waveheatingof the
The atmosphericconcentrationsof CFC11 and CFC12 troposphereand surface since the beginning of the
canbe accountedfor by industrialproduction,allowingfor Industrial
Revolution
isabout
1.9W m'2(ignoring
effects
their destructionin the stratosphere and uptake by the of changes in ozone).A further increase of 3.5W m'2
oceans.Their currentcontributionto the greenhouse effect seemslikely by 2035, thoughestimatesfor the next 60
is small (Table 3). If productionis maintainedat present years rangefrom2.2W m'2to7.2W m'2[Dickinson and
levels, the concentrationof CFC11 and CFC12 will rise to Cicerone,1986]. Whereasit is relativelyeasyto estimate
0.5 and 1.0 partsper billion (ppb) within40 yearsand to theincrease in heatinggiventhechanges in greenhouse gas
0.7 and 2.1 ppb at equilibrium[Dickinsonand Cicerone, amounts,it lesseasyto estimatethe resultingchangesin
1986]. The concentration of thesetwo gasesis at present temperature.This is becausethe atmosphere adjuststo the
increasingat 5% per year. If this rate of increaseis perturbedheatingrates in ways which may enhanceor
maintained,concentrations will reach 2.7 and 4.6 ppb, reduce the magnitudeof the response(positive and
consistentwith the upperlimit usedby Ramanathanet al. negativefeedbacks),and the thermalinertia of the oceans
[ 1985]. In Table 3 a 4% per yearincreasein concentration slowsdown the rate at which the atmosphere and land
isassumed, adding 1.04W m'2tothenetglobal heatingsurfacewarm up. Attemptsto quantifythesetwo effects
rateby 2035 (Table3). aredescribedin thefollowingtwo sections.
Note that the potentialcontributionof thesetwo gases
is very sensitiveto the assumedgrowthrate. Without an
increase inemission ratestheycould add0.5W m'2tothe 5. DETERMINATION OF THE EQUILIBRIUM
greenhouseheating rate within the next 50 years. The CLIMATIC EFFECTS
reductionsproposedin the 1987 MontrealProtocolwould
reduce thistoabout 0.3W m'2[Wigley, 1988]. Accordingto Arrhenius[1896] the possibilitythat the
absorptionof long-waveradiationby atmosphericgases
4.6. Ozone(0 3) would influencegroundtemperaturewas recognizedby
Troposphericozonetendsto warm the Earth's surface Fourier as early as 1827. Tyndall [1861] attemptedto
throughthegreenhouse effect,but stratospheric ozonehas measurethe long-waveabsorptionby atmosphericgases,
the oppositeeffect becauseof absorptionof ultraviolet and Arrhenius [1896] tried to estimatethe changesin
(short-wave) radiation. There is evidenceof a slight surface temperaturesresulting from the increasedcon-
decrease in total ozone amounts over the period centrationsof "carbonicacid"(carbondioxide). Arrhenius
1978-1985duemainlyto reductions in the stratosphereused data on the atmosphericabsorptionof moonlight
[Watsonet al., 1988]. About10% of atmospheric ozone collectedby Langley some years earlier. Later studies
occursin the troposphere. Thereare indications of large provideda rangeof estimatesof the surfacetemperature
localincreases in ozoneat the surface[Bolinet al., 1986], changedue to doublingatmosphericcarbondioxide,with
mainly from sitesnear industrialregionsin the northern the value arrivedat dependingvery much on the assump-
hemisphere [VolzandKley, 1988]. The lifetimeof ozone tions made. For example,Plass [1956] consideredthe
moleculesin the troposphere is short,and the spatial surfaceenergybalanceassumingradiativeequilibriumand
variations arelarge,soit is difficultto estimate globally a constantatmospheric specifichumiditygivinga warming
averaged trends. Hence ozone has been omitted from of 2.5 K. Moller [1963], on the other hand, assumedthat
Table 3. Increasesin surface ozone alone would have little relative humidity remained constant,adding a strong
greenhouse effect,buta 25% increase throughthedepthof positivefeedbackto give a value of 9.6 K. Manabe and
thetroposphere wouldadd0.2 W m'2 to greenhouse Wetheraid[1967] pointedout that the groundand atmos-
heating. phereare not in radiativeequilibrium(seealsoFigure 3)
Many other trace gases were considered by and allowed for the convective transfer of heat from the
Ramanathanet al. [1985], but their likely contributionis surfaceto the atmosphere(using a radiative-convective
negligible. Methane,nitrousoxide, and ozone undergo model), givinga warming of2.9K ondoubling CO2. Thus
chemicalcycleswhich involve other gases(for example, the differences in the earlier results could be attributed to
carbonmonoxideandperoxyacetylnitrate)whichare also the different assumptionsmade in formulating the
known to be increasing in concentration [Worm one-dimensional models used in these studies. There have
Meteorological Organization, 1985; Derwent, 1987]. beenmany studiesof climatesensitivityusingradiative-
Mitchell: "GREENHOUSE"EFFECT 27,1 / REVIEWSOF GEOPHYSICS ß 123
*AT= AQ/•,where
AQ= 4 W m'2.
124 ß REVIEWSOF GEOPHYSICS
/ 27,1 Mitchell: "GREENHOUSE"
EFFECT
2 32 o 3--2•
Figure 8. Latitude-height
distributionof the differencein zonal cycles. The unitsare in percentof total cover,andregionsof
meanclouddue to doublingCO2, averagedover 10 annual decrease
arestippled[fromWetheraldandManabe,1986].
over old, meltingseaice. Note that the modelingof seaice temperatureand hence provide a negative feedback.
in climatemodelsis still extremelysimple,ignoringeffects Somervilleand Remer [1984] attemptedto relate changes
of salinityor changesin oceancirculation. in cloud water contentto changesin temperatureusing
Estimatesof temperaturealbedofeedbackrange from observationaldata. They thenuseda simpleparameteriza-
-0.2W m'2 K'• to -0.7W m'2K'• [Ingram
et al., 1989], tion of cloudradiativepropertiesin termsof cloudwater
thoughestimatesat thelowerendof therangeappearto be [Stephens, 1978] in a one-dimensional
radiative-convective
more
realistic.
Assuming
avalue
of-0.4W m'2K'l forthis model and found a large negativefeedback. Using the
additional feedback will increasethe warming due to relationshipbetweentemperatareand cloudwaterderived
doublingCO2 to 2.2 K (Table4). from observations (as modifiedby Bohren [1985]), their
5.1.3. Cloud Cover Clouds reflect solar radiation result
suggests
a contribution
to )• of 1.9W m'2K'l, the
and absorb and emit infrared radiation. An increase in
positivevalue denotinga negativefeedback. An increase
cloud enhances both the reflection of solar radiation, in the watercontentof thin highcloudwouldalsoincrease
producinga surfacecooling, and the emissionof long- the long-wave emissionto spacefrom upper levels (and
wave radiation,producinga warming. Current evidence hencereduceemittingtemperatures), tendingto warm the
suggests thatchangesin solarheatingare dominantat most troposphere and giving a positivefeedback. Roeckneret
latitudeswherethereis significantinsolation.An increase al. [1987] parameterizedthe changesin both solar and
in the heightto which cloudsextend,implyingthat cloud long-wavecloud radiativepropertiesin a low-resolution
tops are cooler, will reduce the rate of emission of generalcirculationmodel which they usedto investigate
long-waveradiationto space,leadingto a furtherwarming. the effect of an increasingsolarconstant. In that model,
Simulationswith increasedCO2 using three- cloud radiative propertiesprovide a positive feedback,
dimensional models show a consistent increase in cloud becausethe long-wave effect dominatesthe reflective
height over most latitudesand a decreasein middle and effect.
upper troposphericcloud cover in low and mid latitudes The formationof cloudsand their radiativeproperties
(Figure 8; see also Wetheraidand Manabe [1988] and dependon many microphysicalparametersthat cannotbe
Wilson and Mitchell [1987a]). In general,there is a determinedin large-scalemodels. The parameterization of
reduction in cloud cover, leading to increased solar cloud, cloudwater, and cloud radiativeproperties
in terms
absorption,andan increasein meancloudheight,reducing of large-scalemodelvariablesis at presentextremelycrude
thelong-wavecooling.Thesechanges togethergivea very and providesone of the largestsourcesof uncertaintyin
strong positivefeedback,estimated atbetween -0.8W m'2 thedeterminationof climatesensitivity.
K'l and-1.1W m'2 K'l [seeMitchell,1987].A valueof
-0.9W m'2K'l willenhance
thesurface
warming
dueto 5.2. Three-Dimensional Climate Models
doubling
CO2by 2.2 K (Table4). Notethatthechange
in One-dimensionalmodelshaveprovedextremelyuseful
equilibriumtemperaturedependson the orderin which the in the determination
of the radiativeeffectsof increasing
feedbacksare introduced,whereasthe relativestrengthof the concentrationof trace gasesor in analyzingthe
thefeedbacks isgivenby)•i. strengthsof feedbackprocesses in morecomplexmodels.
5.1.4. Cloud RadiativeProperties Given the Theyareeconomicalto run andrelativelyeasyto analyze.
increasein atmospheric
watervaporwith temperature, one On the other hand, the one-dimensional model cannot
mightalsoexpectan increasein the watercontentof cloud provideinformationon the regionalchangesin climate
and hencecloudreflectivity. This would reducethe solar whichare of economicand societalimportance.Further-
heatingof the atmosphere and surface,tendingto reduce more, given the many nonlinearprocessesinfluencing
Mitchell: "GREENHOUSE"EFFECT 27,1 / REVIEWSOF GEOPHYSICS ß 125
Swamp ocean
One-dimensional r adiative-conv ective 2.4 2.0
Annual mean, sector 2.9
Annual mean,sector(variablecloud) 3.0
Mixed layer ocean
Seasonallyvarying, sector (2.4)t
Seasonallyvarying,realisticgeography (2.0)t
Seasonally varying,realisticgeography
(variable cloud) 4.0
*Includesresultsusinga revisedradiativetransferscheme.
'•Valueobtained
byhalving
theresults
forquadrupling
CO2.
variable (model generated)cloud cover and a revised on doubling CO2. In therealisticgeography experiment,
radiationscheme,givinga warmingof 3.0 K, as opposed there is a marked increasein high cloud cover at all
to 2.0 K with the one-dimensionalmodel [Manabe and latitudes whichleadsto a reduction
in outgoing long-wave
Wetheraid, 1980]. radiation(due to changesin cloud) and hencea positive
On introducingseasonalvariationbut maintaining feedback.This differenceappearsto be partly a resultof
prescribedcloudamounts, andreplacingtheswampocean the choice of finite difference levels around the
by a 68-m mixed-layeroceanin whichoceantransport
was tropopause:in the global model, there is a level at about
ignored,the warmingwasreducedto 2.4 K with this 95 mbar which coincides with the maximum increase in
versionof the sectormodel[WetheraidandManabe, 1981] highcloudcoverin the tropics,whereasthenearestlevel in
(assuming thatthe magnitudeof theresponse
variesas the the sectormodel is at 70 mbar where changesin cloud
logarithm of the fractionalchangein carbon dioxide cover are small. Wetheraid and Manabe [1988] also note
concentration). This reduction was attributed to the fact thatthe CO2-induced
increase
in low cloudis enhanced
that in the model with seasonal variation the extent of ice when the seasonal variation of insolation is removed from
and snow and hencethe size of the temperaturealbedo their new global model, furtherweakeningthe positive
feedbackare severelycurtailedin the summerhalf of the feedbackdueto cloudprocesses.
year,just whenincominginsolationis largest. Using a The experiments abovedemonstrate that the response
globalmodelwithrealisticgeography, themeanwarming of a model dependson the model used. Furthermore,
wasfurtherreducedto 2 K [Manabeand Stouffer,1980]. conclusions basedon simplifiedmodelsmaybe misleading
With realisticgeography,thereis no temperaturealbedo qualitativelyas well as quantitatively,
as illustratedby the
feedback over Antarctica, as the elevation is sufficient to studies with fixed and variable cloud described above.
ensurethat the surfacetemperatures
remain well below 5.3.2. RecentStudiesThe GFDL experiments show
freezingwithbothpresentandenhanced of the influenceof realisticorography,seasonalcycle, and
concentrations
atmospheric with thepolar changesin cloudamounton climatesensitivity.In recent
carbondioxide. Thiscontrasts
regionsof thesectormodels(andthenorthernhemisphere) years, five studieshave been carried out using models
whicharewarmer,
beingat sealevel,andWhere
tempera- incorporatingthesefeatures.The studieshavebeencarried
turealbedofeedbacks canoperatefor at leastpartof the out at the GoddardInstitutefor SpaceStudies(henceforth
year,leadingtogreater
climatesensitivity. referred to as GISS) [Hansen et al., 1984], the National
WetheraidandManabe[1986]repeated the "realistic Center for AtmosphericResearch(NCAR) [Washington
geography"experimentwith variable cloud cover and and Meehl, 1984], GFDL [Wetheraid and Manabe, 1986;
foundthat the sensitivityof the modelwasdoubled. In Manabe and Wetheraid,1987], the MeteorologicalOffice
contrast, the introductionof variable cloud into the (MO) [Wilsonand Mitchell, 1987a], and Oregon State
annually averaged sector models had little effect on University (OSU) [Schlesingerand Zhao, 1987]. The
climate sensitivity(Table 5). Wetheraidand Manabe models and the results from the first three studies have
TABLE 6. GlobalMeanChanges
in FiveRecentCO2-Doubling
Studies
Surface
Temperature Precipitation
Study Source Change,K Change,%
*W. M. Washington(personalcommunication,
1988).
90ON I I _. I I I I . I
'•' "'.•'•-I0
'... ß ß '.':
:...•:..::•:".:iit
:?',:!:'..:::
.....
"":':"::::'"
:":":'•:'""•'
.......i Io!%''
..............
.......
30 ø
9oos
-I i i I i ..... i i ! I
0ø 60 ø 120 ø E 180 ø 120 øW 60 ø 0ø
Figure10. Changes
in surface
temperature
dueto doubling
CO2
for (a) DJF and (b) JJA. Contoursare ever),2 K, and increases
greaterthan 4 K are stippled[Hansenet al., 1984] (reproduced
from Schlesinger andMitchell [1987]).
(b) 90ø
N-::•
60ø-
••4 '•.:: • 4•• •"'
'•'•••4 •::: 4. ". .
0o
30ø
-• 4
I I I
0ø 60 ø 120 ø E 180 ø 120 ø W 60 ø 0ø
The simulated changes in temperaturealso vary the onsetof freezingandleadingto thinnerseaice. More
considerably with longitudeand season(Figure 10). The heatcandiffusethroughthe thinnerseaice, alsocontribut-
largestwarmingoccursover seaice in winter;the smallest ing to the enhanced surfacewarmingin winter [Manabe
over sea ice in summer. In summer,sea ice in the Arctic is andStouffer,1980].
maintainedat freezinglevel by the meltingof ice. With There is also a considerable
geographicalvariationin
enhanced CO2, eithermoreseaiceis melted, producing no warmingwithin individualcontinents. In regionswhere
change in surface temperature,or the sea ice melts the soil becomesdrier, evaporationmay be restricted,
completely,leaving the underlyingoceanicmixed layer leadingto increasedwarmingand vice versa[Manabeet
which limits the rise in temperaturethroughits large al., 1981]. Local changesin cloud amount may also
thermal inertia. On the other hand, the reductionin surface contributeto the regional variations,especiallywhere
albedodue to removingseaice leadsto increasedabsorp- insolationis significant.Althoughthelarge-scale features
tion of solarradiation. This extraenergyis storedin the of the simulatedtemperaturechangesare consistentfrom
mixed layer and releasedin autumnand winter,delaying modelto model,thedetailsvaryconsiderably.
Mitchell: "GREENHOUSE"
EFFECT 27,1 / REVIEWSOF GEOPHYSICSß 129
60 ø
30ø o -.....
.ii'"'•:. • -..::!:i"
•
0 ::::::::::::::::::::::::::
.........
...::i:i:i:i:iiii!iiiiiiiiiiiiiiii!iiii
::'"'"'::!'i!i':
......
::::::::::::::::::::::
30 ø
-0 o
o
30 ø 30 ø
60 ø - 60 ø
90øS i • i • i i 90øS
•oo •oow •oo ' oo •oo ' '
120 ø E 180 ø
Figure11. Changes
in precipitation
dueto doubling
CO2 for (a)
DJF and (b) JJA. Contoursare at 0, + 1, and + 2 mm d-l, and
areasof decrease
arestippled[fromWilsonandMitchell, 1987a].
30
ø -.............
'"•- 30':'
600-L '""• - ,.._,_
• •____.•_•_•
1• • 60ø
60 ø--
60 o --
90øS I I I I I I I
0o 60 ø 120OE 180 ø 120 øW 60 ø 0ø
(b) 90øN
t30 ø - --
30 ø
•øø
90øS i • • I
••
'" I •
0ø 60ø 120
ø[ 180
ø 1•0øW 60ø 0ø
(c) 60 ø -
30 ø -
0 o-
30 ø -
60 o -
90os - I i i I I ! I
0o 60 ø 120 ø E 180 ø 120 ø W 60 ø 0ø
Figure12. Changein soilmoisture CO2 (JJA) The modelsshown are (a) GFDL, (b) GISS, and (c) NCAR.
dueto doubling
from three differentmodels. Contoursare every 1 cm (GFDL, Note the discrepancies
in northernmid-latitudes(reproduced
NCAR) andevery4 cm (GISS). Areasof decreaseare stippled. from SchlesingerandMitchell [1987]).
Mitchell: "GREENHOUSE" EFFECT 27,1 / REVIEWSOF GEOPHYSICSß 131
may in turnfeedbackto the atmospherethroughchanges models. The existing studies have used numerical
in ocean surface temperature. It is known that the techniquesto acceleratethe approachto equilibrium
circulationof the oceanhaschangedin the past,as, for [Bryan,1984]. The zonallyaveraged equilibriumchanges
example, during the last glacial maximum when the in atmospheric temperature on quadrupling CO2 from
Atlantic oceanicpolar front was displacedequatorward, Spelman andManabe[1984](Figure15) arequalitatively
and duringthe periodof maximumnorthernhemisphere similarto thoseobtainedusingatmosphere-only models
insolationaround9000 yearsagowhencoastalupwelling [e.g., Manabe and Wetheraid, 1975], with an enhanced
associated with the Asian monsoon was more intense. surfacewarmingin highlatitudesdue to the temperature
Hence the climatic effects of increased concentrations of albedofeedbackanda weakeningof thesurfaceinversion,
greenhouse gasesmay includesignificantchangesin ocean andincreases in temperaturewith heightin thetropicsdue
heat transport with substantial impacts on climate, to moist convectiveprocesses. The changesin ocean
especiallylocally. surface
temperaturefollowthosein theatmosphere, though
The use of three-dimensionalcoupled ocean- they are smaller,especiallyin high latitudes. The en-
atmospheremodelsto study the effectsof increasedtrace hancedsurfacewarmingin the polar region is mixed
gaseshas largely been limited to low-resolutionsimula- downward in the high-latitudeoceans and advected
tions using annuallyaveragedinsolationand idealized equatorwardto give a pronouncedreductionin vertical
orography [Spelman and Manabe, 1984; Manabe and temperature gradientat mid-latitudes.Despitethereduced
Bryan, 1985]. The deepoceanrequiresseveralcenturiesto meridionaltemperature gradientevidentin Figure 15,
reach thermalequilibriumbecauseof its large thermal Manabe and Bryan [1985] found little changein the
inertia. At present,no institutionhas the computing intensityof the oceanicmodel'smeridionalcirculationfor
resourcesto perform lengthy experimentswith such CO2concentrations above300 ppm. The coefficient of
25
95
205
.........
' ,œ ,*
...:::::•.••••.. . ......
..... , 2•3•--
4•'-• - 10
350
515
680
,...,
:....::..•••
':'••'"'
:....••
:•
:'''"''
:...:
:•• 6 5T
83O
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::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: 4 Mean
990
ß
::::.-'•---,'.].',•.•ii-
:•'•;'•"'""'
, ,4.0 _•- :3.5- 200
,
i!i_7.5
!ii8.5- - ½
•.'.'.'.-.'. ..:.:.:.:-:-:-:-:-:-:.:.:.:.:-:-:-:.:-:.:.:-:-: ' . ..:.:-:.:.............................
600 400
:.•:•.:.•F:•:.:•:•:M:•:•:•:•:•:•:•:•:M:M:•:•:•:M:M:i:•:•:•:•:•:M:•:•:•:•:•:•:•:•:•:•:•:•:•:M:•:•:M:•:M:•:•:M:•:•:•:•:
.......-...-.-..
3000
2000
.... •.•.•n.•..-•.....•.•.•.•.•.•.•.:.:.:.:•:.:•:.:.:.:•:•:.:•:•:.:•:•:•:.:.:•:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:•:.:•:•:.:•:.:.:•:.:•:.:•:.:•:•:•:.:.:.:.:.:•:•:•:•:.:•:•:.:•:•:.:•:•:.:•:•:.:.•.•:..
ß:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.2:.:.:.:.:.:'.'.'..'
.• '."::::::::::.
:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.'.'.'.'.'.'.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:4.:.:.:.:.:':-:':':':'::',•-:"',a,•::•;i:'
',444.
',444.
',4•. '•b4.:444.
:.-•.•
:.:.:.:.:.:.:•:•:•:•:.:•:.:•:•:.:.:.:•:.:•:.:•:.:.:•:•:•:•:.:.•...':.•..•.n4.•..•..•.•
'• •' ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
"'.n'•.
"nnn"'-'-nn" 'nnnn"w'"w"
.?..:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.::::::.:.........•....::?..
/. O ......... '"'""'"'"'"""":'"":':':':':':':':':':':':
4000
.ooo
90 ø N 75 ø 60 ø 45 ø 30 ø 15 ø 0ø
Latitude
Figure 15. Height-latitude diagram of zonally averaged 1 K upward. Extra dashedcontoursare at 3.5 K, 6.5 K, and7.5
equilibrium
changes
in temperature
dueto quadrupling
CO2 in an K. Areasof decrease
arelightlystippled,andwarminggreater
idealizedcoupledocean-atmosphere
model [f•om Spelmanand than7 K is heavilystippled.
Manabe, 1984]. Contoursare at-8 K,-4 K, -1 K, and then every
Mitchell: "GREENHOUSE" EFFECT 27,1 / REVIEWSOF GEOPHYSICS ß 133
usinga similar box diffusionmodel. Smallervaluesof A, mixing coefficients[Harvey, 1986] and also reducesthe
lead to longertime scalesx, allowingdiffusionof heat to sensitivityof the response
time to 3.. Clearly,to takeinto
greater depths and hence increasingthe effective heat accountadvectiveand regional effects, one has to use a
capacityC of the oceanequation. This is equivalentto a moresophisticated
oceanmodel.
furtherincreasein thetimescalex (= C/•; equation(3)). Spelmanand Manabe [1984] rerantheir equilibrium4
Box diffusionmodelsproducea uniformtemperature x CO2 experiment(see section5.3.3), removingthe
with depthat equilibriumandhencecannotreproducethe devicesusedto acceleratethe convergenceto equilibrium
observedgloballyaveragedverticaltemperature profile. and"switching
on"theincrease
in CO2. After25 yearsthe
To remove this shortcoming, one-dimensionalbox zonallyaveragedtemperature changes werecomparedwith
diffusionmodelshavebeenrun, includinga background thoseobtainedat equilibrium. The fractionalresponsein
upwelling velocity. This increasesthe rate of transient temperaturein the atmosphereand oceanwas generally
responseof the upperoceanfor the sameA,and vertical uniform with latitude (Figure 16) and consistentwith a
25
2O
15
205"'-'••'-'"'-'.'.•.:
'- .......'•.'.'.'.0
-'}.-----'--••
2•
• • 10
3•
E 350 •'- ,
515
5
68O
83O
½
Mean
990 sea level
2OO
1- i 4OO
6OO
8OO
I I I 1000
35O
515
940 !!iiii!!iiiiiii!iii!.O
7:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.
:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
...............................
.................... .o......o.o......O..oO...o........oOo.,.....o..O..o ...... 1 Mean
99 ========================
' ...................... sea level
200
04
400
01 600
8OO
1000
90 øN 75 o 60 o 45 o 30 o 15 o 0 ø
Latitude
Figure 16. (Top) Height-latitudediagramof zonally averaged is an extradashedcontourat 3.5 K. Also shownis the percent-
changes
in temperature
25 yearsafterquadrupling
CO2 amounts age of the equilibrium response(contoursevery 10% with
in an idealizedcoupledoceanmodel. Contoursare at -8 K, -4 K, increases
greaterthan50% stippledheavily)[fromSpelmanand
-1 K, andthenevery 1 K upward. Areasof decreaseare lightly Manabe, 1984].
stippled,andwarminggreaterthan4 K is heavilystippled.There
Mitchell' "GREENHOUSE"EFFECT 27,1 / REVIEWSOF GEOPHYSICS ß 135
greenhouse effect(Table3).
2. Thereare uncertainties in the sensitivityof climate. Figure17. Observed globalsurfaceair temperature
anomalies,
Estimatesof theequilibriumsensitivityof climatediffer by 1901-1987 [Joneset al., 1988]. Copyright 1988 Macmillan
a factorof 3 [Bolin et al., 1986]. Much of this uncertainty MagazinesLtd;reprintedwith permission.
is due to the uncertaintyin cloud feedbacks. Current
modelsimulations indicatea feedbackstrength3,of about
1 W m'2 K'• whichcouldbeincreased•to 2.0 W m'2 K'• if 4. There is considerablevariability in the observed
the net cloudfeedbackis neutral(seeTable 4). Assuming temperature record.Globalmeansurface temperaturehas
AQ= 1.9W m'2 (Table3) anda feedback strengthof increasedby about0.4 K since1900 (seeFigure 17 [from
between 1.0and2.0 W m'2 K'•, wecanestimate thatthe Jones et al., 1988]). The warmestyear on record was
equilibriumwarmingdueto increases in tracegasesto date 1987. The increase has been far from uniform, with
lies between 1.0 and 1.9 K. markedyear to year variability and a period of cooling
136 ß REVIEWSOF GEOPHYSICS / 27,1 Mitchell: "GREENHOUSE" EFFECT
further enhancingthe radiative heatingat the surface. Sustainedresearchover the coming decadewill be
Global mean rates of precipitationand evaporation requiredto reducethe currentuncertaintiesin the predic-
increase. tions of climate change. Numerical modelsprovide the
4. The geographicaldistributionof precipitation mostpromisingmeansof determiningthe climatic effects.
changes is far from uniform.Thereis a generalincreasein Whereas numerical weather prediction models can be
precipitationand runoff in high latitudes. Precipitation calibrated by verification of short-term forecasts,our
increases in low latitudes,thoughlocallythereare regions confidencein the reliabilityof climatemodelsdependson
of increaseanddecreasewhichvary from modelto model. the extentto whichtheyarebasedon scientificprinciples.
In most studiesto date, there is a reductionin soil moisture The potentialwarmingdue to man-madechangesover
over the northern mid-latitude continents in summer. the last 100 yearsis 1-2 K; hencethe questionis not will
5. The magnitude of theresponse is greatlyenhanced the changesoccur,but when and where will the changes
in most simulationswith model-generatedcloud. A occur? Cooperationbetweenmanydifferentdisciplinesis
decrease in total cloud and an increase in mean cloud neededto predictthe futureconcentration of gasesand the
heightbothcontributeto thisenhancement. consequent climaticandeconomiceffects.
Thereare severalprioritiesfor futureresearch. First,
we need to reducethe uncertaintyin the magnitudeof
climate sensitivity. Here the major shortcomingis our ACKNOWLFDGMFNTS. Andrew Gilchrist, William
Ingram, and Geoff Jenkinsmade usefulsuggestions on the first
poor understandingof the processesgoverning the
draft of this paper. Dick Wetheraid,Marcia Neugebauer,and
formationandradiativepropertiesof clouds,compounded two other anonymousrefereescontributedconstructivecom-
by thefact thatcloudsare notresolvedby the modelgrid. mentswhichhavebeenincorporated in the test.
The radiativepropertiesof water cloudsdependon the Ann Henderson-Sellers was the editor responsiblefor this
cloud water content, which has been parameterizedin paper. She thanksR. E. Dickinsonand R. Wetheraidfor their
generalcirculation models,andtheeffectivedropletradius, help in evaluatingits technicalcontentandE. Clifton for serving
whichhasnot. Even lessis knownaboutthe propertiesof as a cross-disciplinary referee.
ice clouds,an areawherethereis a requirementfor further
experiment andobservations.
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