Sie sind auf Seite 1von 49

Seminar Course on Sectoral Strategy

Dissertation Project Report

On

India’s Trade Potential with Common


Market for Eastern and Southern Africa
(COMESA)

Project guide: Dr. B.R. Chaudhari

By

Yatin Pawa
Roll No: 59
MBA(IB) – 2008-10
IIFT, Kolkata

School of International Business


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

Interim Report Contents

Chapter 1: Introduction ................................................................................................................... 4

1.1. India – Africa: an opportunity Ahead .............................................................................. 4

Chapter 2: COMESA in regional, continental and global economies ............................................ 6

2.1. COMESA Economic Performance .................................................................................. 6

2.2. COMESA’s Programmes ................................................................................................. 6

2.3. Investment Flows ............................................................................................................. 7

2.4. Policy Reforms ................................................................................................................. 8

Chapter 3: COMESA’s Trade Regime ......................................................................................... 10

3.1. The Free Trade Area ...................................................................................................... 10

3.2. Total COMESA Trade ................................................................................................... 11

3.3. COMESA’S Trade with Key Markets ........................................................................... 12

3.4. Co-operation with India ................................................................................................. 15

Chapter 4: India COMESA relations ............................................................................................ 17

4.1. Indian Investments in COMESA.................................................................................... 18

4.2. Suggested Indian strategy for COMESA ....................................................................... 19

Chapter 5: Identifying Trade Potential ......................................................................................... 20

5.1. Trade Conformity Index: ................................................................................................ 20

5.2. Identifying sectors of trade importance .......................................................................... 22

5.2.1. Static Method .............................................................................................................. 25

i. RCAi > 1 and RCDAc > 1 ............................................................................................. 25

ii. RCAc > 1 and RCDAi > 1 ............................................................................................. 27

5.2.2. Dynamic Method ........................................................................................................ 29

By: Yatin Pawa Page 2


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

i. dRCAi >0, RCDAc >1 ................................................................................................... 29

ii. dRCAc >0, RCDAi >1 ................................................................................................... 30

5.3. Gravity Model ................................................................................................................ 31

5.4. Identifying Competitors ................................................................................................. 34

i. Trade Intensity Index ..................................................................................................... 35

ii. Regional orientation Index ............................................................................................. 36

Appendix ....................................................................................................................................... 38

References: .................................................................................................................................... 49

By: Yatin Pawa Page 3


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

Chapter 1: Introduction

1.1. India – Africa: an opportunity Ahead


In spite of the large world reserves of a number of strategic minerals and abundance of
agriculture crops, Africa was left behind in the global economy. The main reason behind this
could be attributed to the over dependence on export of a few primary agriculture
commodities, apart from petroleum exports by a few countries, combined with inadequate
industrial base in most of the countries resulting into worsening terms of trade. Efforts
towards value addition to exports were hardly made. Moreover the general economic
condition of the region had been very poor by any economic or social indicator when
compared with any of the world's major developing regions. Essential catalysts for attracting
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) viz., political stability, good governance, macro economic
reforms and stability, free trade and foreign exchange, and level playing field for all entrants
were missing.

Change in the perception began in the early 1990s, when most of the governments in this
region started realizing that many of the inherited economic problems were soluble. Hence,
they have taken up reform programmes both at the political and economic levels. Most of the
governments in the region instead of being hostile to foreign entrepreneurs now actively seek
foreign business involvement. The above initiatives taken by the governments indicate the
beginning of sub-Saharan Africa's transformation towards economic recovery and sustained
long-term development. In view of the above many observers view the region's trade and
economic prospects as more favourable now than at any time during the past two decades.

Of late, the states in this region are engaged in constructive dialogue to revamp the existing
regional groupings and trade blocs. The activation of trade blocs like Southern African
Development Community (SADC), Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa
(COMESA), Southern African Customs Union (SACU), Indian Ocean Commission (IOC),
East African Cooperation (EAC) and Economic Community of West African States
(ECOWAS) has boosted expectations even further. Regional trade agreements can help

By: Yatin Pawa Page 4


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

countries build on their comparative advantages, sharpen their industrial efficiency, and act
as a launch pad to integrate into the world economy.

A QUICK look at the World Bank figures will reveal that 13 sub-Sahara African nations
(SSA) experienced GDP growth rate of 5 percent or more in the five-year period closing the
20th century. Incidentally, when this figure is matched with the population growth rates, it
points towards an interesting phenomenon! The economic growth rates exceeded their
respective population growth rates for the first time in decades - an important development
indicator. Furthermore, markets in the developed world are getting saturated on the
perception that investment opportunities in developed nations are mature - hinting to the fact
that greatest risk-reward opportunities are to be found in newly emerging markets. There
were desperate hunts for new investment destinations. Naturally, Africa's vast, untapped
potential came in the picture frame. The United States and European Union (EU) started
taking interest in the African market. These have been reciprocated by more FDI and
international involvement in the economy.

By: Yatin Pawa Page 5


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

Chapter 2: COMESA in regional, continental and global economies

The world experienced unprecedented social, economic and political turbulence in 2008 and the
COMESA economy was not entirely unscathed, but performed better than some regions and
economies.
2.1. COMESA Economic Performance
The economy of COMESA grew from US$233 billion in 2005 to US$345 billion in 2007.
The population grew from 389 million in 2005 to 416 million in 2007. The effect of these
changes in GDP and Population on standards of living of citizens of the region has been a
slight upward push as demonstrated by the rise in GDP per capita. Figure 14 below shows
GDP in billions of US Dollars, Population in millions and GDP per capita in US Dollars.

Overall economic performance has raised living standards as measured by GDP per capita
from US$600 in 2005 to over US$800 in 2007. This growth rate is a positive step in the
attainment of COMESA’s goal of “…an internationally competitive and prosperous
economic community with high standards of livings for its people. Growth was more
impressive among the 12 Least Developed Countries of COMESA.

2.2. COMESA’s Programmes


COMESA’s agenda and programmes are broad and cover a large number of economic
sectors and political and social activities. However, to be effective and efficient in the
implementation of its mandate and the fulfilment of its objectives, COMESA defined its
priorities within its mandate, over the short and medium terms as Promotion of Regional

By: Yatin Pawa Page 6


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

Integration through Trade and Investment. The development of trade-related infrastructure,


particularly infrastructure of a regional nature (covering more than one country), is one of
the main pillars of COMESA integration agenda.

In implementing its programmes and activities, COMESA works through its Secretariat for
technical and policy related work, and through its independent and semiautonomous
institutions for specialized sectoral work.

These include the Trade and Development Bank for Eastern and Southern Africa (popularly
known as the PTA Bank), the COMESA Re-Insurance Company (ZEPRe), African Trade
Insurance Agency (ATIA); the COMESA Clearing House; the COMESA Regional
Investment Agency (RIA); the COMESA Leather and Leather Product Institute (LLPI) and
the Council of Bureau of Insurance Associations and the newly created COMESA
Competition Commission. These institutions have the potential to become commonly owned
institutions not only for the regional organisations in eastern and southern Africa but for the
African continent as a whole as they already providing services to the private sector not only
in COMESA and Africa, but also in South East Asia.

2.3. Investment Flows


Africa’s share in global FDI remained very low, at about 3%, and with US$21,614 million
FDI inflows in 2007, COMESA itself represents 1% of the global FDI. This situation is due
to a number of factors impeding investment flows, among others legal and administrative
barriers. These factors affect both domestic and foreign private investors but they may have
a disproportionate impact on foreign investors who usually have higher visibility and who
tend to adhere more strictly to legal requirements.

To address those constraints with a view to make the region more attractive, the Twelfth
Summit of COMESA Authority of Heads of State and Government, held in Nairobi, Kenya,
on 22nd and 23rd May 2007 adopted the Investment Agreement for the COMESA Common
Investment Area (CCIA).

By: Yatin Pawa Page 7


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

The CCIA Agreement is a useful investment tool whereby the COMESA Secretariat
contemplates to create a stable region and good investment environment, promote cross
border investments and protect investment, and thus enhance COMESA’s attractiveness and
competitiveness, as a destination for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and in which
domestic investments are encouraged.

The COMESA Secretariat has prepared Two-year Action Plan for the implementation of the
Investment Agreement for the COMESA Common Investment Area which was adopted by
the Co-ordinating Committee on Investment (CCI), during its meeting held in Lusaka,
Zambia, from 12th to 13th December 2007. Policy reform and COMESA investment
database are the first activities addressed in the line with the aforesaid Action Plan.

2.4. Policy Reforms


Reform of the regulatory environment and the progressive harmonization of investment
laws, regulations and policies are major steps in the implementation of the COMESA
Common Investment Area (CCIA). To facilitate these reforms in the COMESA Member
States, the Secretariat has recruited a consultant who is developing a Regional Strategic
Framework for the simplification of procedures and the reduction of the costs of starting/
conducting business. To that effect, the consultant is going to work on the following:
i) Identify, make an inventory and review national commercial and investment policies,
rules and laws
ii) Identify and analyze various factors affecting negatively the starting up of business
including company registration, dealing with licenses and Transparency;
iii) Identify commonalities and discrepancies in the investment policies and laws. From this
strategic framework policy, the company registration is targeted as the starting point of the
harmonization of investment policies in the COMESA region. COMESA Investment
Database /FDI Statistics

The Secretariat in conjunction with UNCTAD, is currently conducting training workshops


on Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) Statistics and statistics on the activities of
Transnational Corporations (TNC) in COMESA Member States. So far, apart the regional
workshop held in Mombasa, Kenya in August 2008, the training has been organized in eight

By: Yatin Pawa Page 8


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

COMESA countries. At the end of the process, the COMESA Secretariat intends to start
publishing an annual investment report for the entire region whose positive effect will to
assure more visibility of the COMESA region.

Regarding the intra-COMESA investment flows (inward and outward) COMESA is


promoting cross-border investment within the region. A number of countries are currently
involved in cross-border investments. This is particularly the case Kenyan firms which have
moved into Uganda and Rwanda to invest in light manufacturing plants, agriculture and
tourism. Some Mauritius companies have a presence in Madagascar and the Seychelles, and
in Kenya. Ethiopia is also investing in Djibouti in energy and Transport sectors. In addition,
Egyptian firms are investing in countries such as Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya and Zambia. A
recent example concerns El Sweedy, a cable and motor manufacturing company, which has
set up a manufacturing plant in Zambia to take advantage of the abundant copper resources
as its raw material. With the implementation of the CCIA at both regional and national
levels, COMESA expects to attract more and diversified investment flows and an increase
of cross-border investments within the region.

By: Yatin Pawa Page 9


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

Chapter 3: COMESA’s Trade Regime

3.1. The Free Trade Area


COMESA implements a market integration agenda through its trade and investment
strategy. In 2008, COMESA continued to improve the trading and investment environment
for the region. Intra-COMESA trade which has been growing at an average rate of 20% per
annum since the launch of the FTA in 2000, grew by the same margin. Intra-COMESA
trade has, therefore, grown from US$3.2 Billion in 2000 to over US$10 billion in 2008.

Nevertheless, COMESA’s trade with the rest of the world remained below the desired
performance level in 2008. The total volume of COMESA imports and exports in the year
2008, was US$130 billion. The volume of COMESA trade as a proportion of global trade
demonstrates a high degree of openness of the COMESA economy. Intra-COMESA trade is
about 10% of global trade. This is a small percentage when compared to other regions in
Asia and Latin America. For example, the intra-regional trade for MERCUSOR, ASEAN
and ASEAN plus 3 are 22%, 28% and 39% respectively. A characteristic feature of this
intra-trade among these regional blocks is that, a substantial proportion is composed of
manufactured products and intra-industry trade as opposed to Intra-COMESA Trade. On the
contrary, the defining feature of COMESA trade with the rest of the world is the dominance
of primary commodities.

In most cases, our countries depend on one or two primary commodities for export earnings.
This is because COMESA countries have hardly modified the structures of their exports.
The main primary commodities exported in the year 2000, still accounted for half of all
exports, as was the case in 1960. Manufactured exports constitute only 5% of total exports.
In contrast, the region imports capital and finished goods from the rest of the world. The
number of countries participating in the FTA remained the same at 13, with Seychelles
making arrangements to the join the FTA. It was hoped that the legislative and procedural
measures that Seychelles was working on during the year would be completed within the
first half of 2009 and enable the country join the FTA.

By: Yatin Pawa Page 10


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

3.2. Total COMESA Trade


Total COMESA trade has continued to grow for both imports and exports over the past
years (Tables 1 and Figure 15 below). In 2007, total COMESA trade rose to a tune of
US$203 billion, from US$179 billion the previous year, representing an increase of 14%.
This increase was however lower than the percentage increase for 2006 over 2005 levels of
23%. Whereas total imports registered an increase of 24% in 2007 over 2006 levels, total
exports for the same period only increased by 6%. The COMESA trade to GDP ratio also
decreased to 57 percent from 61 percent in 2006.

The percentage of intra-COMESA trade to total COMESA trade has remained low on
average at 4 percent for the last 4 years. See table 2 below. This in part can be attributed to
the fact that third country trade consist of raw material exports some of which have had
significant price increases in recent years. Hence this surge in third country exports
potentially implies a lower intra COMESA trade to total trade ratio.

At country level, Zimbabwe increased her total merchandise imports by 97% in 2007, more
than four times the regional average of 24% in 2007. Total imports for Madagascar and
Kenya were also up by 43%. Most other countries in the region had their annual percentage
change for total imports around the regional average with the exception of Comoros, Eritrea,

By: Yatin Pawa Page 11


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

Sudan and Seychelles which registered negative changes. On the export side, remarkable
increases in merchandise exports were registered for Eritrea, Zimbabwe and Burundi, with
values rising by 264%, 148% and 81% respectively. Comoros, Sudan and Seychelles
however registered negative changes in export values in 2007 over 2006 values. In 2007,
only Libya, Zambia and Swaziland registered favourable terms of trade (ToT) with the
world, having ratios of 3.79, 1.23 and 1.08 respectively.

3.3. COMESA’S Trade with Key Markets


The proportions of exports by export market are a simple indicator of key markets for
COMESA country exports. On average, a number of COMESA countries exported a big
proportion of their products to the EU as evidenced, with the exception of Swaziland,
Zambia, Sudan and Djibouti. Of COMESA’s total exports, (including re-exports), 63% were
destined to the EU, making EU the major export market for the region, principally
petroleum oils from Libya. A big chunk of Swaziland’s exports were destined to South
Africa (75%) while 56% of Sudan’s exports in 2007 were destined to China, mostly
petroleum oils. Djibouti and Zambia’s key export markets were Rest of the World (ROW)
(74% and 63%), mainly live sheep and goats and copper exported to Saudi Arabia and
Switzerland, respectively.

In absolute numbers, COMESA exports to the EU reached almost a US $ 70 billion mark in


2007. Compared to 2006, this implied a 5 percent increase (Table 3 below). Exports to the

By: Yatin Pawa Page 12


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

EU were mainly petroleum oils, natural oils and gas from Libya and Egypt. Following the
EU export market was the USA with exports from COMESA worth US$5.2 billion in 2007,
registering a 6 percent increase from the previous year. Exports to the US market were also
topped by petroleum oils and natural gas from Libya and Egypt, and also non-industrial
diamonds exported from the D.R Congo.

Ranked fourth in the export market was Switzerland, after COMESA, with exports from
COMESA worth US$3.7 billion in 2007, mainly copper (US$1.5 billion) and petroleum oils
(US$1.2 billion) from Zambia and Libya respectively. Exports to South Africa amounting to
US$3.1 billion in 2007 were mainly Mixtures of odoriferous substances from Swaziland
(HS 330210), Nickel and gold from Zimbabwe and copper from Zambia. Exports to China
were topped by petroleum oils worth US$2 billion from Libya and Sudan followed by cobalt
and copper from Congo DR worth US$350 million.

On the import side, the key import source market for most COMESA countries was again
the EU, with the exception of Swaziland, Zambia and Zimbabwe which had South Africa as
their key import source market with proportions of 95%, 45% and 43% respectively. In the
COMESA region, Rwanda sourced the biggest proportion of her imports from the region,
with a proportion of 39%, mainly petroleum oils and cement from Kenya and Uganda
respectively. On the overall, 24% of COMESA’s total imports originated from the EU hence
making it the most import source market for COMESA imports.

By: Yatin Pawa Page 13


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

COMESA’s imports from the rest of the world ROW accounted for 42% of total imports in
2007. Remarkably these were Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and South Korea

In absolute figures, COMESA’s imports from the EU amounted to US$30 billion in 2007,
registering an increase of 20 percent over the 2006 figures and lucidly the largest import
market for the COMESA countries (Table 4 below).

Topping the list of imports from the EU market to the COMESA region were light oils and
preparations of petroleum (HS 271011) worth US$2.4 billion, unused postage, revenue or
similar stamps, including bank notes (HS 490700), medicaments consisting of mixed or
unmixed products (HS 300490) and parts of electrical apparatus for telephony (HS 851790).
Trailing EU as a major import market for COMESA was China, registering exports worth
US $ 7.8 billion to COMESA in 2007, a striking increase of 35 percent from the 2006
levels. Imports from China to COMESA were topped by line telephone sets (HS 851711)
followed by electrical apparatus for line telephony and parts of electrical apparatus for line
telephony, HS 851780 and HS 851790 respectively . South Africa ranked third with exports
to the COMESA market worth US$6.7 billion in 2007, followed by Saudi Arabia that
exported commodities worth US$5.3 billion in 2007.

COMESA’s imports from South Africa were mainly medium and light oils of petroleum
products, motor vehicles and flat-rolled products of iron and steel while imports from the
republic of Korea were mainly motor cars and line telephone sets (HS 8703 and HS
851711), respectively.

By: Yatin Pawa Page 14


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

3.4. Co-operation with India


In April 2008, the first Africa-India Partnership Summit was held in New Delhi. The
Summit was organized on the basis of the AU Banjul decision limiting participation of
member States to the Chairperson of the AU, Chairperson of the Commission, Chairpersons
of the 8 recognised RECs, the Chairperson of Heads of State and Government
Implementation Committee (HSIGC) and the 5 NEPAD initiating countries.

The areas of focus were:


i) Agriculture
ii) Infrastructure,
iii) Energy,
iv) Trade,
v) Industry,
vi) SMEs
vii) Finance
viii) Education and ICT
ix) Governance, Civil/Military Relations and PeaceKeeping.

By: Yatin Pawa Page 15


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

COMESA had participated in one of the preparatory meetings held in Addis Ababa,
Ethiopia in May, 2007, and participated in the April 2008 Summit. COMESA also actively
participated in the 2nd Conclave on India-Africa Project Partnership –Strengthening
Partnerships: that took place in New Delhi on 19 – 21 March, 2008. As part of the ongoing
collaboration, an Indian Industrial Development Expert was seconded by the Indian
government and joined the Secretariat in June,

2008. In the area of energy, three energy experts were proposed from which the Secretariat
selected one expert who was also deployed to COMESA. The expert will work with the
Secretariat and the East African Power Pool (EAPP) to facilitate development of the
regional electric power master plan.

As part of the ongoing irrigation development program, four member states (Burundi,
Eritrea, Rwanda and Zambia) were surveyed by irrigation experts from India. Plans are
underway for the experts to visit Seychelles, Uganda, and Zimbabwe.

By: Yatin Pawa Page 16


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

Chapter 4: India COMESA relations


India signed a MOU for long-term economic and technical cooperation with the COMESA
(Common Market for Eastern & Southern Africa) in February 2003.

In 2006, a decision was taken to upgrade the COMESA-India dialogue to ministerial level,
and a COMESA ministerial delegation visited New Delhi in October 2006 for the first
ministerial level meeting. The meeting decided an action plan primarily in the area of
capacity building including deputation of experts to Comesa Sectt. in the areas of industrial
development, Drugs and Pharmaceuticals, ICT and energy. The energy expert is already
under deputation in COMESA Secretariat since 1st July, 2008. The matter is being pursued
with regard to deputation of other experts. In bilateral interaction, the COMESA delegation
attended the CII’S Third Conclave on India – Africa Project Partnership from October 9 – 11,
2006 in New Delhi; CII Partnership Summit in Gurgaon in January, 2008 and in India-Africa
Forum Summit in April,2008.

The India Africa Forum summit has given a new thrust to India’s engagement with Africa
with increase in existing credit lines to Africa from US$ 2.15 billion to US$ 5.4 billion; duty
free access to 85% of India’s total tariff lines as well as preferential duty access to 9% of
India’s total tariff lines by Africa’s 34 LDCs; grant of US$ 500 million to Africa in next 5-6
years and; increase in ITEC training slots from 1100 to 1600 a year to African countries. We
hope COMESA countries shall be able to take advantage of these measures.

Under COMESA India cooperation Programme, India’s Water & Power Consultancy
Services (WAPCOS) experts to advise in the development of irrigation sector had visited
Zambia (September/October 2005), Eritrea (November 2005) and; Rwanda (October, 2006).
The experts are to further visit Zimbabwe, Uganda, Swaziland and Seychelles.

Following are figures of COMESA's Trade with India, for years 2001 to 2005 in US$
(Millions):

By: Yatin Pawa Page 17


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

The COMESA exports are dominated by


1. Petroleum products (around 70%)
2. Cotton (around 10%).
On the other hand, major COMESA imports from India are
1. Refined petroleum products,
2. Rice, pharmaceuticals,
3. Steel

4.1. Indian Investments in COMESA


In Uganda, Indian investors are building dairy and pharmaceutical plants. In Sudan, a power
plant and a pipeline is being built with Indian assistance. India has funded the largest IT Park
in Mauritius.

In Zambia TATA has set up a truck and bicycle assembly plant in Ndola, which will
gradually replace imports of some completely knocked down parts (CKD) with COMESA
produced components. Zambia Electric Supply Company (ZESCO) and TATA Africa
Holdings have formed a joint venture company called Itezhi Tezhi Power Corporation
limited (ITPC) to carry out Itezhi-Tezhi ($200 million) power project. The total investments
by Vedanta Resources in Zambia’s biggest copper mine KCM will touch almost US$ 2
billion by 2008. While Vedanta Resources is Indian-owned, they are registered in UK –
hence their investment figures are not reflected in Indian investment figures.

By: Yatin Pawa Page 18


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

The Exim Bank has been providing credit lines to PTA Bank and these credit lines have been
utilised by the private sector in sourcing machinery and equipment from India in various
COMESA countries. A total of US$55 million (including $10 million extended during the
COMESA October 2006 visit to Delhi) has so far been provided.

4.2. Suggested Indian strategy for COMESA


Several COMESA states such as Egypt, Mauritius, Kenya, Sudan, Ethiopia and Zambia are
importing rice, wheat, tobacco, cotton yarn, footwear, pharmaceutical items, table, kitchen
and household items, coal, related products of iron and steel, paper and paper board, diesel
engines, chemicals and fertilizers worth about US $ 1 billion from the non-COMESA states.
There is potential for India to supply some of these items.

It will become easier for the Indian companies to increase their exports to the COMESA
states if India and COMESA could enter into a Preferential Trade or a Free Trade
Arrangement. The deeper integration among the COMESA states will enable the Indian
companies to participate in infrastructure related projects being promoted by COMESA
and set up facilities to manufacture items such as agricultural equipment, textiles,
pharmaceuticals, telecom equipment, processed foods in these countries and export to the
COMESA and other Sub-Saharan African states.

Since USA, Canada and European Union are providing duty and quota free market access to
several COMESA states, the Indian companies will be able to export their goods from these
states to their markets too.

By: Yatin Pawa Page 19


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

Chapter 5: Identifying Trade Potential

5.1. Trade Conformity Index:


Trade conformity index or TCI gives the conformance of trade between two countries i.e. it
enables us to find if a country has a demand for products offered by another country.

TCI is calculated as
𝛴(𝑀𝑖𝑘 𝑋𝑗𝑘 )
𝑇𝐶𝐼 =
2
𝛴𝑀𝑖𝑘 . 𝛴𝑋𝑗𝑘2

Where
𝑀𝑖𝑘 = Imports of k commodity of I country
𝑋𝑗𝑘 = Exports of k commodity of j country

The index measures the degree of trade complementarities between two countries. Notice that the
TCI value varies from 0 to 1. When the TCI equals zero, i.e., 𝑋𝑗𝑘 = 0 or 𝑀𝑖𝑘 = 0, it can be
considered that India and country i have the similar export shares, and India has a perfectly
competitive trade structure against country i. As the TCI becomes larger, trade structure of India
becomes more complementary against country i. When the TCI equals unity, i.e., 𝑋𝑗𝑘 =𝑀𝑖𝑘 , it
can be considered that India's export shares are identical to its partner's import shares, and India
has a perfectly complementary trade structure against country i. Since traded commodities could
reflect factor endowment differences between the two countries, the TCI also represents the
degree of factor endowment difference.

The TCI between India and COMESA shows and increasing trade complimentarity across the
four years from 2005 to 2008. Thus whatever products India exports, COMESA nations import
similar products.
Below table and graph depict the increasing trade complimentarity between India and COMESA.

Year 2005 2006 2007 2008


TCI 0.58 0.70 0.62 0.76

By: Yatin Pawa Page 20


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

Trade Complimentarity Index


0.80
0.70
0.60
TCI 0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
2005 2006 2007 2008

The graph and table below shows the increasing trade between India and COMESA nations

(In billion dollars)

India - COMESA trade


10.000
9.000
8.000
7.000
$ Billion

6.000
5.000
4.000
3.000
2.000
1.000
0.000
2005 2006 2007 2008
Exports 2.119 3.301 4.163 5.465
Imports 0.419 1.878 3.470 3.848
Total 2.538 5.179 7.633 9.313

By: Yatin Pawa Page 21


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

5.2. Identifying sectors of trade importance


In this section we shall look to identify the important sectors and products of trade importance
between India and COMESA nations. The analysis will give an idea of the export competent
sectors for both the trading partners as well as sectors of export potential in the future.

From an Indian point of view the analysis will also aim to give insight into the sectors and
products from where India can face possible competition from the COMESA nations. Thus it
could be important to consider the effects of trading in such products in the future.

The analysis will be carried out at the 4 digit HS level for all the products traded by India and
COMESA. The methodology for identifying sectors and products shall be through the indices of
Relative comparative advantage (RCA) and Relative comparative disadvantage (RCDA).

a. RCA

Revealed comparative advantage (RCA) gives the relative advantages of a country in a


certain technological field or product. The numerator is the share of a country’s total exports
of the commodity of interest in its total exports. The denominator is share of world exports of
the same commodity in total world exports. RCA takes a value between 0 and +∞..It is
calculated as
𝑋𝑘𝑖 /𝛴𝑋𝑘𝑖
𝑅𝐶𝐴 =
(𝑋𝑤𝑖 /𝛴𝑋𝑤𝑖 )

Here
𝑋𝑘𝑖 = Export of I product of k country
𝛴𝑋𝑘𝑖 =Total export of k country
𝑋𝑤𝑖 = Export of I product of the world
𝛴𝑋𝑤𝑖 = Total export of the world

The significance of RCA values for a product is,

If, RCA > 1  A country has a revealed comparative advantage if not actual advantage in
the exports of that product i.e. its exports of that product are higher than the world average

By: Yatin Pawa Page 22


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

and a country can gain benefit to a higher extent by exporting that product as per the H-O
theory of trade. In a free trade environment a country would be better off exporting this
product.

RCA < 1  A country has a low comparative advantage in the exports of that product i.e. its
exports of that product are lower than the world average and the export of that product might
not give it a competitive advantage over others.

b. RCDA

Revealed comparative Disadvantage (RCDA) gives the relative disadvantage of a country in


a certain technological field or product. It is calculated as
𝑀𝑘𝑖 /𝛴𝑀𝑘𝑖
𝑅𝐶𝐷𝐴 = 𝑖 /𝛴𝑀 𝑖 )
(𝑀𝑤 𝑤

Here
𝑀𝑘𝑖 = Import of I product of k country
𝛴𝑀𝑘𝑖 =Total imports of k country
𝑀𝑤𝑖 = Import of I product of the world
𝛴𝑀𝑤𝑖 = Total imports of the world

The significance of RCDA values are,

If, RCDA > 1  A country has a revealed comparative disadvantage in that product i.e. its
imports of that product are higher than the world average and a country has a threat of its
market to be flooded by exports from other countries. A country in order to save the domestic
producers for such products imposes tariffs.

RCDA < 1  A country has a low comparative disadvantage in the imports of that product
i.e. its imports of that product are lower than the world average and importing that product
might not give it a significant disadvantage

By: Yatin Pawa Page 23


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

c. dRCA

Dynamic RCA is the change in the revealed comparative advantage of a product for a
country over a certain period.
It is given by
𝑑𝑅𝐶𝐴 = 𝑅𝐶𝐴𝑡 − 𝑅𝐶𝐴𝑡−1
Where
𝑅𝐶𝐴𝑡 = Revealed comparative advantage for period t.
𝑅𝐶𝐴𝑡−1 = Revealed comparative advantage for period t-1.
Note:
RCA, RCDA and dRCA give the respective interpretations of a products comparative
advantage / disadvantage in isolation, it is important to study these indices in relation to each
other.

For further analysis and interpretation we shall attach a suffix for India as “I” and “c” for
COMESA. Therefore

RCAi – Relative comparative advantage of India

RCAc – Relative comparative advantage for COMESA nations

And so on.

By: Yatin Pawa Page 24


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

5.2.1. Static Method


i. RCAi > 1 and RCDAc > 1

These set of products are those for which India has a comparative advantage in its exports
thus an RCA of greater than 1, and a RCDA greater than 1 signifies the relative disadvantage
of the COMESA nations thereby an opportunity for India to export such products taking
advantage of the lack of competitiveness of COMESA nations in these products

At the 4 digit HS level a total of 162 products were found for which the RCA for India was
greater than 1 and RCDA for COMESA nations greater than 1.

The division of sectors of these products of export importance is as below

Sectors No. of products


01-05 Animal & Animal Products 4
06-15 Vegetable Products 21
16-24 Foodstuffs 5
25-27 Mineral Products 10
28-38 Chemicals & Allied Industries 27
39-40 Plastics / Rubbers 5
41-43 Raw Hides, Skins, Leather, & Furs 0
44-49 Wood & Wood Products 2
50-63 Textiles 42
64-67 Footwear / Headgear 0
68-71 Stone / Glass 6
72-83 Metals 19
84-85 Machinery / Electrical 13
86-89 Transportation 5
90-97 Miscellaneous 3
98-99 Service 0

By: Yatin Pawa Page 25


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

The table clearly points out to India’s competitive advantage over COMESA nations majorly in
the textiles, chemicals, agricultural, metals and machinery.
The detailed list of the 162 products with their respective RCAi and RCDAc values is given in
the List-1 in appendix.
The table below shows the major products which can prove to be of importance from the Indian
exports point of view. For the below products the RCA value for India is very high indicating a
high export competence on the other had the RCDA values for COMESA nations is also very
high, showing their incompleteness in the same products.
Such products can therefore be targeted for exports from India.

Product Product Name RCAi RCDAc


5307 Yarn of jute or of other textile ba 56.26 15.12713453
5310 Woven fabrics of jute or of other t 54.29 14.58232087
0909 Seeds of anise, badian, fennel, cor 38.23 6.873478244
2705 Coal gas, water gas, producer gas a 37.95 16.51350359
5205 Cotton yarn (other than sewing thre 17.19 6.155016802
5303 Jute and other textile bast fibres 15.93 18.18925258
3605 Matches, other than pyrotechnic art 12.99 11.77720182
0902 Tea, whether or not flavoured. 8.69 6.133759219
5512 Woven fabrics of synthetic staple f 7.90 7.580135516
5212 Other woven fabrics of cotton. 6.93 6.993910187
1701 Cane or beet sugar and chemically p 6.39 9.232077977
7303 Tubes, pipes and hollow profiles, o 4.88 10.47081712
6208 Women's or girls' singlets and othe 4.86 7.212944369
5805 Hand-woven tapestries of the type G 4.53 5.869923439

It is also noted in the table below the products for which the RCDA for COMESA nations is very
high. However the RCA values for India though greater than 1 is not very high. Such products
hold a huge potential for trade considering that India increases its competence in the same or else
it would face competition from other trading partners of COMESA.

By: Yatin Pawa Page 26


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

Product Product Name RCAi RCDAc


2714 Bitumen and asphalt, natural; bitum 2.24 21.84326736
2824 Lead oxides; red lead and orange le 1.64 12.98370876
4705 Wood pulp obtained by a combination 1.15 10.22821749
2523 Portland cement, aluminous cement, 1.29 8.916617774
2403 Other manufactured tobacco and manu 2.29 8.452350019
0713 Dried leguminous vegetables, shelle 1.32 7.978403919
3602 Prepared explosives, other than pro 1.20 7.640128031
1007 Grain sorghum. 1.05 7.249928896
2802 Sulphur, sublimed or precipitated; 1.34 5.874239992
2503 Sulphur of all kinds, other than su 1.14 5.663587789
5507 Artificial staple fibres, carded, c 2.25 5.616865646
5506 Synthetic staple fibres, carded, co 2.07 5.407897953
1005 Maize (corn). 2.61 5.336738785
3211 Prepared driers. 2.01 5.12661235

ii. RCAc > 1 and RCDAi > 1

These set of products are those for which COMESA nations have a comparative advantage
in their exports thus an RCA of greater than 1, and a RCDA greater than 1 signifies the
relative disadvantage of the India thereby an opportunity for COMESA nation’s exports to
penetrate the Indian market owing to their lack of competitiveness.

Imports of such products can therefore affect the domestic market of India leading to a
further fall in competitiveness. It is thus advised to keep such items in a sensitive list
wherein the tariffs would be reduced slowly.

At the 4 digit HS level a total of 48 products were found for which the RCA for COMESA
nations was greater than 1 and RCDA for India greater than 1.

The division of sectors of these products of export importance is as below

By: Yatin Pawa Page 27


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

Sectors No. of products


01-05 Animal & Animal Products 1
06-15 Vegetable Products 10
16-24 Foodstuffs 0
25-27 Mineral Products 12
28-38 Chemicals & Allied Industries 8
39-40 Plastics / Rubbers 0
41-43 Raw Hides, Skins, Leather, & Furs 4
44-49 Wood & Wood Products 1
50-63 Textiles 6
64-67 Footwear / Headgear 0
68-71 Stone / Glass 3
72-83 Metals 3
84-85 Machinery / Electrical 0
86-89 Transportation 0
90-97 Miscellaneous 0
98-99 Service 0

The table shows India relative competitive disadvantage over COMESA nations majorly in
the Minerals, vegetable products and chemical.
The detailed list of the 48 products with their respective RCAi and RCDAc values is given
in the List-2 in appendix.
The table below shows the major products for which India needs to be careful as for them
the RCA value of COMESA nations is high and the RCDA values for Indian products is
also high.
Such items need to be dealt with care as their imports can flood the Indian market and drive
out the competency of the local players.

By: Yatin Pawa Page 28


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

Product Product Name RCAc RCDAi


5303 Jute and other textile bast fibres 151.77 15.57
2605 Cobalt ores and concentrates. 107.76 29.45
0907 Cloves (whole fruit, cloves and ste 65.26 15.84
4105 Tanned or crust skins of sheep or l 46.33 13.93
1301 Lac; natural gums, resins, gum-resi 40.33 5.32
0713 Dried leguminous vegetables, shells 12.57 11.21
2510 Natural calcium phosphates, natural 7.46 10.28
2603 Copper ores and concentrates. 5.85 6.42
3102 Mineral or chemical fertilizers, ni 5.49 5.35
5310 Woven fabrics of jute or of other t 3.93 5.94
0906 Cinnamon and cinnamon-tree flowers. 3.68 4.47
2709 Petroleum oils and oils obtained fr 3.35 4.68

It is also to be noted for the products in the table below where the RCDA for Indian
products is high but the RCA of COMESA nations is not high but still greater than one.
Such products can pose a threat to flood the domestic markets in the future as the COMESA
nations gain further advantage in them.

Product Product Name RCAc RCDAi


2521 Limestone flux; limestone and other 1.12 19.03
0801 Coconuts, Brazil nuts and cashew nu 1.36 13.72
7802 Lead waste and scrap. 2.02 6.79
1511 Palm oil and its fractions, whether 1.08 6.41
2814 Ammonia, anhydrous or in aqueous so 1.60 5.30
2704 Coke and semi-coke of coal, of lign 2.46 4.33

5.2.2. Dynamic Method


In this section we look at the dynamic competitive advantage for the trading partners’ i.e.
their increasing RCA over a period of time that is represented by dRCA. Also the products
which have an RCDA greater than one will be found.

i. dRCAi >0, RCDAc >1

These set of products are those for which the dynamic relative competitive advantage for
India is increasing over a period of time indicating its increasing competitive advantage in
trade over the period of time. For the same products the RCDA of COMESA nations is also

By: Yatin Pawa Page 29


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

greater than one signifying the potential to export the products to COMESA owing to their
lack of competitiveness and the increasing competitiveness of India in the same.

A list of 137 items at the HS 4digit level were found for which the dRCA of India was
increasing in at least 2 of the last three years and for which the RCDA of COMESA nations
was greater than one.

dRCA
Product Product Name RCDAc RCAi
2006 2007 2008
2714 Bitumen and asphalt, natural; bitum 21.84 -0.34 0.14 1.80 2.24
5303 Jute and other textile bast fibres 18.19 -1.27 1.65 13.59 15.93
5310 Woven fabrics of jute or of other t 14.58 -7.45 3.16 16.66 54.29
2824 Lead oxides; red lead and orange le 12.98 0.22 0.08 1.12 1.64
5401 Sewing thread of man-made filaments 10.60 0.16 0.47 -0.10 0.90
1701 Cane or beet sugar and chemically p 9.23 2.75 1.99 1.39 6.39
2403 Other manufactured tobacco and manu 8.45 0.62 0.63 -0.48 2.29
3602 Prepared explosives, other than pro 7.64 0.15 0.03 0.65 1.20
5512 Woven fabrics of synthetic staple f 7.58 0.60 3.09 1.19 7.90
1007 Grain sorghum. 7.25 -0.66 0.22 0.69 1.05
5212 Other woven fabrics of cotton. 6.99 0.28 1.93 1.00 6.93
0909 Seeds of anise, badian, fennel, cor 6.87 -0.23 1.66 19.29 38.23
5205 Cotton yarn (other than sewing thre 6.16 1.14 2.02 0.21 17.19

Of theses 137 items a total of 69 items were such that for which the RCA of India was
greater than one. This signifies the increasing competitiveness coupled with an already
existing competitive advantage. Such items can be on the priority list for exports for India.
The complete list of the 137 items is given in List-3 in the appendix.

ii. dRCAc >0, RCDAi >1

Similar to the above list these are the products for which the COMESA nations have shown
an increasing competitiveness over the last few years whereas India has a relative
disadvantage in such products.

The items in this list are of importance to India as they indicate the potential products that
will be imported from COMESA nations.

By: Yatin Pawa Page 30


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

A list of 77 items were found at the HS 4 digit level. Among these items majority are
minerals and chemical and allied products. Of the 77 items, 27 were the one for which the
RCA of COMESA nations was greater than 1.

dRCAc
Product Product Name RCAc
RCDAi 2006 2007 2008
2510 Natural calcium phosphates, natural 18.61 -0.01 0.00 7.43 7.46
2814 Ammonia, anhydrous or in aqueous so 11.35 -0.06 0.02 1.57 1.60
1301 Lac; natural gums, resins, gum-resi 5.84 -7.23 7.41 25.71 40.33
0909 Seeds of anise, badian, fennel, cor 5.59 -0.20 2.28 5.62 9.12
5310 Woven fabrics of jute or of other t 5.21 0.08 0.09 3.62 3.93
2824 Lead oxides; red lead and orange le 5.16 0.04 -0.05 5.21 5.21
1516 Animal or vegetable fats and oils a 4.97 1.55 5.84 -7.49 1.73
1703 Molasses resulting from the extract 4.49 -3.69 4.32 3.96 18.92
5303 Jute and other textile bast fibres 4.36 0.19 35.48 116.08 151.77
2603 Copper ores and concentrates. 4.09 4.56 -3.84 0.15 5.85
2709 Petroleum oils and oils obtained fr 4.08 0.00 0.00 3.35 3.35

The complete list of items is given in List-4 in the appendix.

5.3. Gravity Model

To estimate the global trade potential for India and the pattern of trade we have used the
basic gravity model equation of world trade considering trade flows from all of India’s
trading partners.

The gravity model is used to first analyze the world trade flows and the coefficients thus
obtained are then used to predict trade potential for India. The trade potential gives an
indication of India’s trade with COMESA.

The gravity model has been estimated using the OLS technique with time series and cross -
section data. The dependent variable in all our tests is total trade (exports plus imports in US
dollars), in log form, between pairs of countries.

By: Yatin Pawa Page 31


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

Our estimation results show that the gravity equation fits the data and delivers precise and
plausible income and distance elasticities. All of the traditional “gravity” effects are
intuitively reasonable, with statistically significant t-statistic.

The gravity equation is a simple empirical model for analyzing trade flows between
geographical entities. The gravity model for trade is analogous to the Newtonian physics
function that describes the force of gravity. The model explains the flow of trade between a
pair of countries as being proportional to their economic “mass” (national income) and
inversely proportional to the distance between them. The gravity Model can be
mathematically stated as:

Tradeij = a. GDPi.GDPj
Distanceij

Where,
Trade ij is the value of the trade between country i and j,
GDPi and GDPj are country i and j’s respective national incomes.
Distance ij is a measure of the distance between the two countries
A is a constant of proportionality.

Taking logarithms of the gravity model equation, we get the linear form of the model which
is as follows:
Log (Tradeij) = α + β1 log (GDPi.GDPj) + β2log(distanceij)
When we try to analyze this model by regression we use the equation with an extra variable
accounting for the shocks and fluctuations that deviate the estimated value from the true
value. The equation would be
Log (Tradeij) = α + β1 log (GDPi.GDPj) + β2 log(distanceij) + uij
Where α, β1 and β2 are coefficients to be estimated using regression. It is expected that the
value of β2 to be negative and 1 to be positive to support the assumptions of the gravity
model.

By: Yatin Pawa Page 32


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

The results of the gravity model for taking into account 142 countries gave the following
results

SUMMARY
OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.4126
R Square 0.39
Adjusted R Square 0.3896
Standard Error 3.2095
Observations 142

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 963.5351432 481.7676 198.8421 1.68E-41
Residual 139 336.7783103 2.422866
Total 141 1300.313454

Standard Upper
Coefficients Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% 95%
Intercept 15.77635 2.040653085 7.731032 1.94E-12 11.74162 19.81109
X Variable 1 0.59153 0.055510269 17.20613 2.97E-36 0.845363 1.06487
X Variable 2 -1.0634 0.21733431 -7.14622 4.6E-11 -1.98283 -1.12341

The export equation thus formed was

Log(trade) = 15.77635 + 0.59153 log(GDPi*GDPc) – 1.0634 log(dist)

The actual export between India and COMESA = 9.139

Using the above equation through gravity model we get the predicted value of export =
14.769

We thus see that as per the gravity model the actual trade between India and COMESA is
less than the predicted value of exports

Thus we can say that there lies more potential of trade between India and COMESA nations.

By: Yatin Pawa Page 33


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

5.4. Identifying Competitors


The major trading partners of COMESA include the EU, US, China, SA, India and China.
The exports of these countries to COMESA is given in the table below

The share of exports from each of these countries is shown in the graph below

We now find the trade intensity index to measure the bilateral trading intensity between
COMESA nations and its trading partners

By: Yatin Pawa Page 34


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

i. Trade Intensity Index

Trade intensity index is based on an actual observation of bilateral trade flow, and it measures
the intimacy of the trading relationship between any given two countries.

Iij= ( Xij/Xi ) / ( Mj/W )

where Xij denotes exports from Country i to Country j,

Xi equals the total exports from Country i,

Mj is the total imports of Country j, and

W represents the world trade volume

The TII for COMESA and its major trading partners is given in the table below

2005 2006 2007


India 3.97 5.00 4.01
EU 2.68 3.75 2.85
China 0.96 1.03 1.02
US 0.28 0.26 0.30
S.Africa 15.43 12.94 14.33

Trade Intensity Index


18.00
16.00
14.00
12.00 Ind
10.00 EU
TII

8.00 Chn
6.00
US
4.00
2.00 SA
0.00
2005 2006 2007

From the above table and graph we see that the TII for South Africa is the highest. While
India has the second highest TII but its TII has fallen from 2006 to 2007. The high TII for SA
can be owed to its closeness in terms of distance with COMESA nations.

By: Yatin Pawa Page 35


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

ii. Regional orientation Index

COMESA being a FTA, it is also important to identify the amount of trade within the FTA
and products which are traded more often amongst the members of the agreement.

The Intra COMESA trade in percentage terms is given in the table below

It is also necessary to find out the products or sectors which are more often traded among the
countries. For that we use Regional orientation index (ROO)

Where:

• Xrj represent the value of exports of j (Commodity )in RTA’s intra trade

• Xtr reflect the total value of member countries’ exports within RTA

• Xoj represent the value of exports of j in trade with third countries

• Xto reflect the total value of member countries’ exports outside RTA

Value of > 1 indicates greater tendency to export to regional market

The major areas where the ROO identified has been higher are given in the table as below

Product Product Name ROO


10 Cereals 3.79
11 Prod.mill.indust; malt; starches; 7.42
15 Animal/veg fats & oils & their clea 4.69
17 Sugars and sugar confectionery. 4.37
19 Prep.of cereal, flour, starch/milk; 3.01
22 Beverages, spirits and vinegar. 7.60
25 Salt; sulphur; earth & ston; plaste 3.90

By: Yatin Pawa Page 36


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

Product Product Name ROO


32 Tanning/dyeing extract; tannins & 6.79
34 Soap, organic surface-active agents 3.96
36 Explosives; pyrotechnic prod; match 6.54
37 Photographic or cinematographic goo 3.68
44 Wood and articles of wood; wood ch 3.31
45 Cork and articles of cork. 9.68
47 Pulp of wood/of other fibrous cellu 3.74
48 Paper & paperboard; art of paper pu 3.38
59 Impregnated, coated, cover/laminate 4.41
64 Footwear, gaiters and the like; par 5.33
65 Headgear and parts thereof. 4.14
66 Umbrellas, walking-sticks, seat-sti 4.18
67 Prepr feathers & down; arti flower; 8.82
70 Glass and glassware. 3.44
73 Articles of iron or steel. 3.37
83 Miscellaneous articles of base meta 4.46
86 Railw/tramw locom, rolling-stock & 4.18
92 Musical instruments; parts and acce 4.08
96 Miscellaneous manufactured articles 4.35

By: Yatin Pawa Page 37


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

Appendix
List-1: RCAi >1, RCDAc >1

Product Product Name RCAi RCDAc


0104 Live sheep and goats. 1.03 1.061173892
0202 Meat of bovine animals, frozen. 6.37 4.841999406
0303 Fish, frozen, excluding fish fillet 1.30 4.827580622
0508 Coral and similar materials, unwork 1.52 1.957931885
0713 Dried leguminous vegetables, shelle 1.32 7.978403919
0801 Coconuts, Brazil nuts and cashew nu 24.52 1.30919851
0812 Fruit and nuts, provisionally prese 1.92 1.431506067
0901 Coffee, whether or not roasted or d 1.73 1.081293459
0902 Tea, whether or not flavoured. 8.69 6.133759219
0904 Pepper of the genus Piper; dried or 16.61 2.450869601
0906 Cinnamon and cinnamon-tree flowers. 1.00 3.137779504
0908 Nutmeg, mace and cardamoms. 5.32 2.323139824
0909 Seeds of anise, badian, fennel, cor 38.23 6.873478244
0910 Ginger, saffron, turmeric (curcuma) 9.55 1.579600985
1005 Maize (corn). 2.61 5.336738785
1006 Rice. 12.34 2.160030785
1007 Grain sorghum. 1.05 7.249928896
1008 Buckwheat, millet and canary seed; 6.93 1.937153502
1102 Cereal flours other than of wheat o 1.96 4.034700418
1202 Ground-nuts, not roasted or otherwi 15.56 1.562009169
1203 Copra. 26.99 1.05142842
1207 Other oil seeds and oleaginous frui 14.46 3.631606525
1301 Lac; natural gums, resins, gum-resi 9.28 2.27219305
1404 Vegetable products not elsewhere sp 6.64 1.354097146
1515 Other fixed vegetable fats and oils 9.88 3.986510623
1701 Cane or beet sugar and chemically p 6.39 9.232077977
1903 Tapioca and substitutes therefor pr 4.95 1.417889831
2302 Bran, sharps and other residues, wh 2.60 2.047494369
2401 Unmanufactured tobacco; tobacco ref 4.31 2.455537519
2403 Other manufactured tobacco and manu 2.29 8.452350019
2501 Salt (including table salt and dena 1.79 3.676836817
2503 Sulphur of all kinds, other than su 1.14 5.663587789
2513 Pumice stone; emery; natural corund 26.43 1.427243208
2515 Marble, travertine, ecaussine and o 1.58 1.316839162
2521 Limestone flux; limestone and other 6.33 1.452191336
2523 Portland cement, aluminous cement, 1.29 8.916617774
2601 Iron ores and concentrates, includi 6.69 1.217735779

By: Yatin Pawa Page 38


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

Product Product Name RCAi RCDAc


2605 Cobalt ores and concentrates. 3.84 1.095522395
2705 Coal gas, water gas, producer gas a 37.95 16.51350359
2710 Petroleum oils and oils obtained fr 3.52 1.663232249
2714 Bitumen and asphalt, natural; bitum 2.24 21.84326736
2802 Sulphur, sublimed or precipitated; 1.34 5.874239992
2817 Zinc oxide; zinc peroxide. 1.32 1.505795081
2823 Titanium oxides. 3.90 1.327106002
2824 Lead oxides; red lead and orange le 1.64 12.98370876
2828 Hypochlorites; commercial calcium h 3.08 3.174290502
2829 Chlorates and perchlorates; bromate 1.21 1.066611419
2831 Dithionites and sulphoxylates. 6.90 3.26601963
2832 Sulphites; thiosulphates. 2.23 2.239748461
2833 Sulphates; alums; peroxosulphates ( 1.74 2.209207394
2839 Silicates; commercial alkali metal 1.50 2.343551178
2904 Sulphonated, nitrated or nitrosated 8.91 4.024177281
2911 Acetals and hemiacetals, whether or 7.64 1.214853583
2912 Aldehydes, whether or not with othe 3.42 1.113558534
2915 Saturated acyclic monocarboxylic ac 1.82 1.222445909
2941 Antibiotics. 3.79 1.340267844
3003 Medicaments (excluding goods of hea 5.82 2.706410195
3201 Tanning extracts of vegetable origi 1.70 1.131367219
3202 Synthetic organic tanning substance 3.24 2.172170831
3204 Synthetic organic colouring matter, 7.49 1.46479054
3211 Prepared driers. 2.01 5.12661235
3503 Gelatin (including gelatin in recta 4.71 1.052947788
3602 Prepared explosives, other than pro 1.20 7.640128031
3603 Safety fuses; detonating fuses; per 1.44 1.955435119
3605 Matches, other than pyrotechnic art 12.99 11.77720182
3808 Insecticides, rodenticides, fungici 3.20 1.511836383
3817 Mixed alkylbenzenes and mixed alkyl 8.77 1.269120687
3823 Industrial monocarboxylic fatty aci 2.05 1.700055602
4010 Conveyor or transmission belts or b 1.01 1.195921069
4011 New pneumatic tyres, of rubber. 1.05 1.418200684
4012 Retreaded or used pneumatic tyres o 1.20 1.10114049
4013 Inner tubes, of rubber. 5.78 3.107320851
4014 Hygienic or pharmaceutical articles 3.76 1.451862837
4705 Wood pulp obtained by a combination 1.15 10.22821749
4820 Registers, account books, note book 1.44 1.941184216
5007 Woven fabrics of silk or of silk wa 11.35 1.479893329
5105 Wool and fine or coarse animal hair 1.43 1.036640774
5107 Yarn of combed wool, not put up for 1.66 1.987839175

By: Yatin Pawa Page 39


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

Product Product Name RCAi RCDAc


5110 Yarn of coarse animal hair or of ho 1.76 1.018893157
5201 Cotton, not carded or combed. 13.27 2.987145715
5202 Cotton waste (including yarn waste 8.34 2.765855888
5203 Cotton, carded or combed. 1.16 1.606240403
5204 Cotton sewing thread, whether or no 3.99 3.066240866
5205 Cotton yarn (other than sewing thre 17.19 6.155016802
5206 Cotton yarn (other than sewing thre 2.64 1.380998242
5207 Cotton yarn (other than sewing thre 21.44 1.695984199
5208 Woven fabrics of cotton, containing 4.04 1.84662102
5209 Woven fabrics of cotton, containing 3.08 4.313920341
5211 Woven fabrics of cotton, containing 1.28 2.107603134
5212 Other woven fabrics of cotton. 6.93 6.993910187
5303 Jute and other textile bast fibres 15.93 18.18925258
5307 Yarn of jute or of other textile ba 56.26 15.12713453
5310 Woven fabrics of jute or of other t 54.29 14.58232087
5402 Synthetic filament yarn (other than 2.39 3.617219444
5403 Artificial filament yarn (other tha 2.52 2.93261116
5407 Woven fabrics of synthetic filament 4.35 2.665608064
5504 Artificial staple fibres, not carde 3.47 2.818457759
5505 Waste (including noils, yarn waste 4.70 1.863888236
5506 Synthetic staple fibres, carded, co 2.07 5.407897953
5507 Artificial staple fibres, carded, c 2.25 5.616865646
5509 Yarn (other than sewing thread) of 7.79 3.095599146
5512 Woven fabrics of synthetic staple f 7.90 7.580135516
5515 Other woven fabrics of synthetic st 7.36 1.691681028
5605 Metallised yarn, whether or not gim 1.67 1.247156555
5701 Carpets and other textile floor cov 18.72 1.003320295
5705 Other carpets and other textile flo 17.08 1.03309624
5805 Hand-woven tapestries of the type G 4.53 5.869923439
5808 Braids in the piece; ornamental tri 2.58 2.342638664
5809 Woven fabrics of metal thread and w 2.53 2.535323465
6003 Knitted or crocheted fabrics of a w 1.94 2.932475324
6207 Men's or boys' singlets and other v 1.72 1.224454867
6208 Women's or girls' singlets and othe 4.86 7.212944369
6209 Babies' garments and clothing acces 4.60 1.306074309
6214 Shawls, scarves, mufflers, mantilla 15.86 1.113436248
6301 Blankets and travelling rugs. 1.46 1.23532859
6304 Other furnishing articles, excludin 23.09 2.353025065
6305 Sacks and bags, of a kind used for 4.74 1.539814464
6812 Fabricated asbestos fibres; mixture 5.18 4.56355921
6813 Friction material and articles ther 3.10 1.170805267

By: Yatin Pawa Page 40


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

Product Product Name RCAi RCDAc


6901 Bricks, blocks, tiles and other cer 1.74 2.866386311
6902 Refractory bricks, blocks, tiles an 1.03 2.63460624
7011 Glass envelopes (including bulbs an 5.73 1.261735891
7104 Synthetic or reconstructed precious 2.14 2.584770353
7208 Flat-rolled products of iron or non 1.01 1.858424421
7209 Flat-rolled products of iron or non 1.23 4.247473894
7210 Flat-rolled products of iron or non 2.87 1.612245943
7303 Tubes, pipes and hollow profiles, o 4.88 10.47081712
7305 Other tubes and pipes (for example, 8.60 1.574043696
7307 Tube or pipe fittings (for example, 1.58 2.150077222
7308 Structures (excluding prefabricated 1.20 1.566790468
7311 Containers for compressed or liquef 1.46 1.554909408
7312 Stranded wire, ropes, cables, plait 1.16 1.771007071
7319 Sewing needles, knitting needles, b 1.88 1.398682513
7323 Table, kitchen or other household a 5.57 1.100008637
7403 Refined copper and copper alloys, u 1.83 2.835521131
7408 Copper wire. 2.38 1.111564306
7614 Stranded wire, cables, plaited band 13.74 4.840196186
7901 Unwrought zinc. 3.36 1.583620565
7904 Zinc bars, rods, profiles and wire. 1.23 1.024981956
8201 Hand tools, the following : spades, 2.03 2.590236978
8305 Fittings for loose-leaf binders or 1.42 1.023682408
8309 Stoppers, caps and lids (including 1.02 2.244067389
8402 Steam or other vapour generating bo 1.52 2.474207693
8404 Auxiliary plant for use with boiler 1.85 3.753048048
8405 Producer gas or water gas generator 1.16 1.355359184
8430 Other moving, grading, levelling, s 1.09 2.852808446
8435 Presses, crushers and similar machi 1.29 2.074729549
8448 Auxiliary machinery for use with ma 1.78 1.309099451
8455 Metal-rolling mills and rolls there 1.38 1.860002135
8468 Machinery and apparatus for solderi 1.46 1.208681977
8484 Gaskets and similar joints of metal 1.34 2.120048676
8502 Electric generating sets and rotary 2.74 3.607348456
8504 Electrical transformers, static con 1.12 1.423594425
8545 Carbon electrodes, carbon brushes, 2.37 1.595697109
8546 Electrical insulators of any materi 2.81 1.353777656
8702 Motor vehicles for the transport of 1.34 3.657535165
8706 Chassis fitted with engines, for th 3.30 3.781725591
8709 Works trucks, self-propelled, not f 1.39 2.176620642
8710 Tanks and other armoured fighting v 1.18 1.43439798
8803 Parts of goods of heading 88.01 or 1.65 3.150121043

By: Yatin Pawa Page 41


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

Product Product Name RCAi RCDAc


9010 Apparatus and equipment for photogr 1.12 1.024721702
9307 Swords, cutlasses, bayonets, lances 1.75 1.646689918
9601 Worked ivory, bone, tortoise-shell, 7.72 1.125855461

List – 2 : RCAc >1, RCDAi >1

Product Product Name RCAc RCDAi


0508 Coral and similar materials, unwork 1.99 1.36
0713 Dried leguminous vegetables, shelle 12.57 11.21
0801 Coconuts, Brazil nuts and cashew nu 1.36 13.72
0804 Dates, figs, pineapples, avocados, 2.91 1.15
0904 Pepper of the genus Piper; dried or 1.69 1.38
0906 Cinnamon and cinnamon-tree flowers. 3.68 4.47
0907 Cloves (whole fruit, cloves and ste 65.26 15.84
0909 Seeds of anise, badian, fennel, cor 9.12 1.628438
1207 Other oil seeds and oleaginous frui 43.94 1.089668
1301 Lac; natural gums, resins, gum-resi 40.33 5.32
1511 Palm oil and its fractions, whether 1.08 6.41
2510 Natural calcium phosphates, natural 7.46 10.28
2515 Marble, travertine, ecaussine and o 31.98 2.268019
2521 Limestone flux; limestone and other 1.12 19.03
2529 Felspar; leucite, nepheline and nep 8.68 2.270753
2603 Copper ores and concentrates. 5.85 6.42
2605 Cobalt ores and concentrates. 107.76 29.45
2609 Tin ores and concentrates. 59.50 2.509544
2615 Niobium, tantalum, vanadium or zirc 15.80 1.978862
2704 Coke and semi-coke of coal, of lign 2.46 4.33
2709 Petroleum oils and oils obtained fr 3.35 4.68
2712 Petroleum jelly; paraffin wax, micr 11.02 1.890338
2714 Bitumen and asphalt, natural; bitum 36.16 3.742716
2803 Carbon (carbon blacks and other for 19.29 1.235157
2807 Sulphuric acid; oleum. 3.89 2.091558
2812 Halides and halide oxides of non-me 1.50 1.22
2814 Ammonia, anhydrous or in aqueous so 1.60 5.30
2836 Carbonates; peroxocarbonates (perca 10.24 1.287364
3102 Mineral or chemical fertilisers, ni 5.49 5.35
3103 Mineral or chemical fertilisers, ph 11.30 1.518111
3301 Essential oils (terpeneless or not) 3.39 1.089752
4102 Raw skins of sheep or lambs (fresh, 9.78 2.074801
4104 Tanned or crust hides and skins of 2.51 1.76

By: Yatin Pawa Page 42


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

Product Product Name RCAc RCDAi


4105 Tanned or crust skins of sheep or l 46.33 13.93
4106 Tanned or crust hides and skins of 25.89 2.299415
4907 Unused postage, revenue or similar 5.12 2.339553
5201 Cotton, not carded or combed. 8.56 2.028115
5301 Flax, raw or processed but not spun 7.64 1.597706
5303 Jute and other textile bast fibres 151.77 15.57
5306 Flax yarn. 7.84 1.083602
5310 Woven fabrics of jute or of other t 3.93 5.94
6305 Sacks and bags, of a kind used for 2.44 1.13
7015 Clock or watch glasses and similar 13.56 3.583817
7103 Precious stones (other than diamond 3.60 2.717395
7104 Synthetic or reconstructed precious 1.84 1.18
7208 Flat-rolled products of iron or non 2.34 1.71
7611 Aluminium reservoirs, tanks, vats a 1.36 1.40
7802 Lead waste and scrap. 2.02 6.79

List-3 – dRCAi >0, RCDAc >1

dRCA
Product Product Name RCDAc 2005 2006 2007 2008 RCAi
2714 Bitumen and asphalt, natural; bitum 21.84 -0.08 -0.34 0.14 1.80 2.24
5303 Jute and other textile bast fibres 18.19 -0.25 -1.27 1.65 13.59 15.93
5310 Woven fabrics of jute or of other t 14.58 -5.44 -7.45 3.16 16.66 54.29
2824 Lead oxides; red lead and orange le 12.98 -0.20 0.22 0.08 1.12 1.64
5401 Sewing thread of man-made filaments 10.60 -0.07 0.16 0.47 -0.10 0.90
1701 Cane or beet sugar and chemically p 9.23 -0.29 2.75 1.99 1.39 6.39
2403 Other manufactured tobacco and manu 8.45 -0.01 0.62 0.63 -0.48 2.29
3602 Prepared explosives, other than pro 7.64 -0.18 0.15 0.03 0.65 1.20
5512 Woven fabrics of synthetic staple f 7.58 0.30 0.60 3.09 1.19 7.90
1007 Grain sorghum. 7.25 -0.19 -0.66 0.22 0.69 1.05
5212 Other woven fabrics of cotton. 6.99 -0.58 0.28 1.93 1.00 6.93
0909 Seeds of anise, badian, fennel, cor 6.87 -9.20 -0.23 1.66 19.29 38.23
5205 Cotton yarn (other than sewing thre 6.16 -0.64 1.14 2.02 0.21 17.19
5805 Hand-woven tapestries of the type G 5.87 -0.72 0.50 1.48 0.93 4.53
2503 Sulphur of all kinds, other than su 5.66 0.03 2.58 -2.59 1.05 1.14
5507 Artificial staple fibres, carded, c 5.62 -0.39 0.34 -0.34 1.93 2.25
1005 Maize (corn). 5.34 -1.13 0.08 0.61 1.30 2.61
8445 Machines for preparing textile fibr 5.27 0.34 -0.35 0.14 0.04 0.56
4907 Unused postage, revenue or similar 5.23 0.82 -0.78 0.06 0.20 0.31
8446 Weaving machines (looms). 5.16 -0.02 0.10 -0.09 0.14 0.32

By: Yatin Pawa Page 43


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

dRCA
Product Product Name RCDAc 2005 2006 2007 2008 RCAi
3211 Prepared driers. 5.13 0.08 0.39 0.88 0.47 2.01
7614 Stranded wire, cables, plaited band 4.84 -0.79 2.02 2.12 5.24 13.74
5102 Fine or coarse animal hair, not car 4.47 -0.01 -0.08 0.05 0.17 0.24
3207 Prepared pigments, prepared opacifi 4.26 0.11 0.00 -0.13 0.12 0.26
5806 Narrow woven fabrics, other than go 4.22 0.01 0.08 -0.05 0.20 0.53
4407 Wood sawn or chipped lengthwise, sl 4.19 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.05
7204 Ferrous waste and scrap; remelting 4.06 -0.01 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.05
8310 Sign-plates, name-plates, address-p 3.81 0.12 -0.02 0.45 0.19 0.94
5402 Synthetic filament yarn (other than 3.62 0.12 0.39 0.39 -0.03 2.39
8502 Electric generating sets and rotary 3.61 0.19 1.07 0.29 0.86 2.74
0405 Butter and other fats and oils deri 3.49 0.12 -0.04 0.06 0.43 0.78
8474 Machinery for sorting, screening, s 3.35 0.38 0.04 0.12 -0.19 0.59
9406 Prefabricated buildings. 3.27 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.02 0.10
2831 Dithionites and sulphoxylates. 3.27 -0.98 -0.31 1.83 0.74 6.90
2828 Hypochlorites; commercial calcium h 3.17 1.03 0.28 -0.70 0.24 3.08
1210 Hop cones, fresh or dried, whether 3.15 0.00 0.00 0.01 -0.01 0.01
8803 Parts of goods of heading 88.01 or 3.15 -0.01 -0.03 0.46 1.08 1.65
0906 Cinnamon and cinnamon-tree flowers. 3.14 -0.01 0.14 0.40 0.06 1.00
4804 Uncoated kraft paper and paperboard 3.04 0.02 -0.01 0.01 0.04 0.13
2929 Compounds with other nitrogen funct 3.01 -0.17 0.01 0.00 0.09 0.24
1107 Malt, whether or not roasted. 2.99 -0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.02
5201 Cotton, not carded or combed. 2.99 1.42 5.79 5.92 -2.21 13.27
2507 Kaolin and other kaolinic clays, wh 2.96 0.11 0.06 -0.09 0.10 0.39
6901 Bricks, blocks, tiles and other cer 2.87 0.96 0.24 0.07 0.13 1.74
8430 Other moving, grading, levelling, s 2.85 0.85 -0.84 0.02 0.58 1.09
5504 Artificial staple fibres, not carde 2.82 0.26 0.10 1.00 0.56 3.47
5202 Cotton waste (including yarn waste 2.77 -0.52 1.87 -0.18 4.59 8.34
7407 Copper bars, rods and profiles. 2.73 0.14 0.38 -0.51 0.14 0.44
0106 Other live animals. 2.65 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01
6902 Refractory bricks, blocks, tiles an 2.63 -0.05 -0.05 0.24 0.03 1.03
6906 Ceramic pipes, conduits, guttering 2.62 0.06 0.01 -0.07 0.70 0.83
2303 Residues of starch manufacture and 2.54 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.10
2401 Unmanufactured tobacco; tobacco ref 2.46 -0.09 0.19 0.01 0.99 4.31
0904 Pepper of the genus Piper; dried or 2.45 -2.05 2.70 5.66 -2.51 16.61
1209 Seeds, fruit and spores, of a kind 2.42 0.05 0.12 0.10 -0.26 0.43
2839 Silicates; commercial alkali metal 2.34 -0.06 0.07 -0.15 0.50 1.50
5604 Rubber thread and cord, textile cov 2.28 0.08 -0.08 0.06 0.03 0.13
8309 Stoppers, caps and lids (including 2.24 0.00 -0.05 0.02 0.10 1.02
8429 Self-propelled bulldozers, angledoz 2.24 -0.02 -0.02 0.03 0.04 0.11
2832 Sulphites; thiosulphates. 2.24 -0.96 -0.01 0.52 0.29 2.23

By: Yatin Pawa Page 44


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

dRCA
Product Product Name RCDAc 2005 2006 2007 2008 RCAi
5807 Labels, badges and similar articles 2.21 -0.14 0.08 -0.02 0.08 0.58
1520 Glycerol, crude; glycerol waters an 2.21 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.25 0.36
2302 Bran, sharps and other residues, wh 2.05 0.12 1.09 0.26 -0.75 2.60
5107 Yarn of combed wool, not put up for 1.99 0.02 0.02 0.05 0.31 1.66
0508 Coral and similar materials, unwork 1.96 0.22 0.00 0.53 0.04 1.52
3603 Safety fuses; detonating fuses; per 1.96 -0.40 -0.11 0.02 0.64 1.44
8453 Machinery for preparing, tanning or 1.92 -0.01 0.01 0.14 0.11 0.42
2808 Nitric acid; sulphonitric acids. 1.91 0.09 0.18 0.02 -0.11 0.58
8441 Other machinery for making up paper 1.89 0.04 -0.05 0.07 0.06 0.31
5505 Waste (including noils, yarn waste 1.86 -0.09 0.92 0.46 2.12 4.70
9607 Slide fasteners and parts thereof. 1.79 -0.03 0.02 0.00 0.05 0.25
4805 Other uncoated paper and paperboard 1.72 -0.02 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.08
3206 Other colouring matter; preparation 1.72 0.09 0.01 0.19 0.07 0.57
3402 Organic surface-active agents (othe 1.72 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.28 0.53
3302 Mixtures of odoriferous substances 1.69 0.05 0.12 -0.14 0.04 0.32
3816 Refractory cements, mortars, concre 1.69 0.09 0.04 -0.02 0.04 0.31
8434 Milking machines and dairy machiner 1.68 -0.08 0.02 0.07 0.03 0.24
2710 Petroleum oils and oils obtained fr 1.66 -0.04 0.62 0.39 -0.26 3.52
9307 Swords, cutlasses, bayonets, lances 1.65 -0.11 0.23 0.36 1.11 1.75
4908 Transfers (decalcomanias). 1.60 -0.01 0.09 -0.02 0.03 0.11
7901 Unwrought zinc. 1.58 -0.20 2.58 -0.90 1.36 3.36
7305 Other tubes and pipes (for example, 1.57 2.24 0.54 1.36 0.66 8.60
7309 Reservoirs, tanks, vats and similar 1.57 -0.08 -0.02 0.09 0.17 0.39
1202 Ground-nuts, not roasted or otherwi 1.56 -4.56 4.88 1.20 -1.05 15.56
7311 Containers for compressed or liquef 1.55 0.00 0.46 -0.01 0.18 1.46
8451 Machinery (other than machines of h 1.47 0.02 -0.05 0.04 0.02 0.20
3204 Synthetic organic colouring matter, 1.46 0.26 0.37 0.62 0.54 7.49
2521 Limestone flux; limestone and other 1.45 0.22 -1.90 3.12 1.81 6.33
8710 Tanks and other armoured fighting v 1.43 -0.11 0.02 0.00 1.16 1.18
2513 Pumice stone; emery; natural corund 1.43 0.34 4.41 4.18 2.34 26.43
8504 Electrical transformers, static con 1.42 0.27 0.33 -0.09 0.08 1.12
1903 Tapioca and substitutes therefor pr 1.42 1.39 -0.78 0.21 1.85 4.95
4901 Printed books, brochures, leaflets 1.41 0.02 0.09 0.03 -0.03 0.71
9107 Time switches with clock or watch m 1.39 0.01 -0.01 0.01 0.01 0.04
4803 Toilet or facial tissue stock, towe 1.37 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.05
3912 Cellulose and its chemical derivati 1.36 0.08 0.04 0.02 -0.09 0.46
3811 Anti-knock preparations, oxidation 1.35 0.23 -0.05 0.05 0.11 0.50
2842 Other salts of inorganic acids or p 1.34 -0.01 0.03 0.06 0.23 0.42
2941 Antibiotics. 1.34 -0.27 0.28 1.12 -0.18 3.79
3814 Organic composite solvents and thin 1.34 -0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.05

By: Yatin Pawa Page 45


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

dRCA
Product Product Name RCDAc 2005 2006 2007 2008 RCAi
2823 Titanium oxides. 1.33 0.93 -0.38 0.46 0.37 3.90
7108 Gold (including gold plated with pl 1.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00
8463 Other machine-tools for working met 1.31 0.02 -0.12 0.03 0.12 0.40
8413 Pumps for liquids, whether or not f 1.31 0.01 0.08 0.00 0.01 0.54
8448 Auxiliary machinery for use with ma 1.31 0.18 -0.15 0.29 0.39 1.78
8422 Dish washing machines; machinery fo 1.29 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.27
2815 Sodium hydroxide (caustic soda); po 1.28 -0.19 -0.03 0.06 0.47 0.80
6809 Articles of plaster or of compositi 1.28 -0.01 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05
7011 Glass envelopes (including bulbs an 1.26 -0.04 0.77 1.49 2.48 5.73
2301 Flours, meals and pellets, of meat 1.26 0.00 0.01 0.24 -0.21 0.05
1604 Prepared or preserved fish; caviar 1.24 0.13 -0.01 0.01 0.00 0.39
2901 Acyclic hydrocarbons. 1.22 0.22 0.13 -0.06 0.22 0.90
2915 Saturated acyclic monocarboxylic ac 1.22 -0.02 0.17 0.11 0.40 1.82
2911 Acetals and hemiacetals, whether or 1.21 0.96 -1.20 2.27 5.10 7.64
8468 Machinery and apparatus for solderi 1.21 0.04 0.52 0.22 -0.13 1.46
4408 Sheets for veneering (including tho 1.20 0.07 -0.02 0.16 0.13 0.72
3906 Acrylic polymers in primary forms. 1.20 -0.05 0.00 0.03 0.04 0.21
1901 Malt extract; food preparations of 1.18 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.06 0.38
6813 Friction material and articles ther 1.17 0.61 0.52 0.51 -0.09 3.10
9601 Worked ivory, bone, tortoise-shell, 1.13 -0.12 3.59 -4.13 2.78 7.72
9023 Instruments, apparatus and models, 1.11 -0.07 0.46 0.31 -0.26 0.73
2605 Cobalt ores and concentrates. 1.10 0.28 36.37 -36.75 3.84 3.84
2829 Chlorates and perchlorates; bromate 1.07 -0.03 0.57 0.20 0.20 1.21
9615 Combs, hair-slides and the like; ha 1.07 0.00 0.11 0.19 0.05 0.48
0104 Live sheep and goats. 1.06 -0.29 0.30 0.12 0.25 1.03
4811 Paper, paperboard, cellulose waddin 1.06 -0.04 -0.02 0.03 0.05 0.20
3503 Gelatin (including gelatin in recta 1.05 0.73 0.52 0.55 0.51 4.71
1203 Copra. 1.05 0.40 1.11 -0.89 25.51 26.99
8716 Trailers and semi-trailers; other v 1.04 -0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.06
5105 Wool and fine or coarse animal hair 1.04 -0.09 0.25 0.08 0.20 1.43
8501 Electric motors and generators (exc 1.03 0.07 -0.13 0.01 0.09 0.47
2615 Niobium, tantalum, vanadium or zirc 1.03 0.03 -0.02 0.07 0.02 0.12
9010 Apparatus and equipment for photogr 1.02 0.00 0.01 0.10 1.01 1.12
8208 Knives and cutting blades, for mach 1.02 0.11 0.06 -0.19 0.03 0.34
4810 Paper and paperboard, coated on one 1.01 0.03 -0.03 0.01 0.01 0.21
5701 Carpets and other textile floor cov 1.00 1.45 2.49 6.81 -6.21 18.72
3824 Prepared binders for foundry moulds 1.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.20

By: Yatin Pawa Page 46


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

List 4 – dRCAc >0, RCDAi >1


dRCAc
Product Product Name RCDAi RCAc
2006 2007 2008
0909 Seeds of anise, badian, fennel, cor 5.59 -0.20 2.28 5.62 9.12
1211 Plants and parts of plants (includi 1.09 0.72 -0.32 10.09 11.61
1301 Lac; natural gums, resins, gum-resi 5.84 -7.23 7.41 25.71 40.33
1507 Soya-bean oil and its fractions, wh 10.47 -0.37 0.12 0.37 0.67
1513 Coconut (copra), palm kernel or bab 6.16 0.10 -0.12 0.24 0.35
1516 Animal or vegetable fats and oils a 4.97 1.55 5.84 -7.49 1.73
1703 Molasses resulting from the extract 4.49 -3.69 4.32 3.96 18.92
2508 Other clays (not including expanded 1.37 0.10 0.16 2.15 2.54
2510 Natural calcium phosphates, natural 18.61 -0.01 0.00 7.43 7.46
2515 Marble, travertine, ecaussine and o 2.40 0.08 0.14 31.69 31.98
2602 Manganese ores and concentrates, in 1.40 0.03 0.15 0.32 0.55
2603 Copper ores and concentrates. 4.09 4.56 -3.84 0.15 5.85
2613 Molybdenum ores and concentrates. 1.12 0.01 0.14 -0.15 0.00
2707 Oils and other products of the dist 2.06 0.17 -0.26 0.07 0.09
2709 Petroleum oils and oils obtained fr 4.08 0.00 0.00 3.35 3.35
2714 Bitumen and asphalt, natural; bitum 2.01 -6.27 0.65 31.49 36.16
2812 Halides and halide oxides of non-me 1.07 0.00 0.00 1.49 1.50
2814 Ammonia, anhydrous or in aqueous so 11.35 -0.06 0.02 1.57 1.60
2824 Lead oxides; red lead and orange le 5.16 0.04 -0.05 5.21 5.21
2851 Other inorganic compounds (includin 1.01 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.08
2903 Halogenated derivatives of hydrocar 2.83 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.03
2905 Acyclic alcohols and their halogena 1.47 0.01 -0.02 0.02 0.05
2907 Phenols; phenol-alcohols. 2.38 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01
2908 Halogenated, sulphonated, nitrated 1.12 -0.01 0.00 1.27 1.27
2911 Acetals and hemiacetals, whether or 2.19 1.12 0.43 -0.85 0.72
2912 Aldehydes, whether or not with othe 3.00 0.02 0.04 0.36 0.43
2914 Ketones and quinones, whether or no 2.30 0.01 1.93 -1.44 0.51
2922 Oxygen-function amino-compounds. 1.19 0.12 -0.10 0.01 0.02
2942 Other organic compounds. 12.47 -0.03 0.25 0.11 0.37
3102 Mineral or chemical fertilisers, ni 2.69 0.03 -0.03 5.11 5.49
3802 Activated carbon; activated natural 1.28 0.00 0.13 3.38 3.52
3804 Residual lyes from the manufacture 2.35 0.01 -0.01 0.10 0.11
3806 Rosin and resin acids, and derivati 1.82 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.06
3815 Reaction initiators, reaction accel 2.33 -1.54 0.00 0.02 0.02
3816 Refractory cements, mortars, concre 1.09 -0.01 0.02 0.14 0.18
3904 Polymers of vinyl chloride or of ot 1.73 -0.04 0.01 0.64 0.75
3910 Silicones in primary forms. 1.01 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04
4104 Tanned or crust hides and skins of 1.73 0.10 2.06 -0.74 2.51
4106 Tanned or crust hides and skins of 3.46 1.87 20.96 -33.94 25.89

By: Yatin Pawa Page 47


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

dRCAc
Product Product Name RCDAi RCAc
2006 2007 2008
4705 Wood pulp obtained by a combination 1.08 -0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
4906 Plans and drawings for architectura 6.27 -0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00
5002 Raw silk (not thrown). 41.16 -0.03 0.01 0.40 0.42
5004 Silk yarn (other than yarn spun fro 8.43 -1.14 0.10 0.27 0.37
5111 Woven fabrics of carded wool or of 1.37 0.03 -0.02 0.38 0.39
5303 Jute and other textile bast fibres 4.36 0.19 35.48 116.08 151.77
5310 Woven fabrics of jute or of other t 5.21 0.08 0.09 3.62 3.93
5403 Artificial filament yarn (other tha 1.93 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.03
5501 Synthetic filament tow. 1.72 0.17 -0.02 0.93 1.13
5506 Synthetic staple fibres, carded, co 1.48 0.06 -0.05 4.64 4.67
6310 Used or new rags, scrap twine, cord 7.67 0.01 0.81 -1.17 0.77
6812 Fabricated asbestos fibres; mixture 1.83 0.35 -0.20 0.16 0.36
6901 Bricks, blocks, tiles and other cer 2.15 3.57 7.03 -14.49 2.72
6902 Refractory bricks, blocks, tiles an 2.12 0.00 0.04 0.53 0.60
6903 Other refractory ceramic goods (for 1.10 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.03
7011 Glass envelopes (including bulbs an 1.13 -0.01 0.35 0.93 1.28
7207 Semi-finished products of iron or n 1.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
7208 Flat-rolled products of iron or non 2.35 -0.06 0.02 2.31 2.34
7225 Flat-rolled products of other alloy 1.49 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01
7407 Copper bars, rods and profiles. 2.49 -0.02 0.01 0.54 0.56
7605 Aluminium wire. 1.24 0.06 0.14 2.29 2.62
8111 Manganese and articles thereof, inc 2.02 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.17
8416 Furnace burners for liquid fuel, fo 1.07 -0.04 0.00 0.22 0.27
8447 Knitting machines, stitch-bonding m 6.48 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.16
8461 Machine-tools for planing, shaping, 2.37 0.02 -0.01 0.03 0.04
8463 Other machine-tools for working met 1.06 0.03 -0.02 0.05 0.07
8475 Machines for assembling electric or 3.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
8482 Ball or roller bearings. 1.15 0.00 0.02 -0.02 0.01
8485 Machinery parts, not containing ele 1.17 0.03 -0.03 0.02 0.03
8517 Electrical apparatus for line telep 1.40 0.01 -0.02 0.01 0.04
8901 Cruise ships, excursion boats, ferr 1.40 0.00 0.01 -0.01 0.00
8904 Tugs and pusher craft. 12.04 0.03 -0.03 0.01 0.01
8905 Light-vessels, fire-floats, dredger 6.61 -0.08 0.01 0.05 0.06
8908 Vessels and other floating structur 73.30 -26.01 0.06 0.11 0.17
9012 Microscopes other than optical micr 1.24 0.01 0.01 -0.02 0.00
9016 Balances of a sensitivity of 5 cg o 2.47 -0.08 0.00 0.03 0.08
9111 Watch cases and parts thereof. 1.09 0.03 -0.03 0.00 0.00
9508 Roundabouts, swings, shooting galle 1.03 -0.01 0.02 0.03 0.05

By: Yatin Pawa Page 48


India’s Trade Potential with COMESA

References:

 imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/02/weodata/index.aspx
 http://www.indo-african-society.org/pages/a_whale_of_opportunity.htm
 http://www.bilaterals.org/article.php3?id_article=8285
 http://www.bilaterals.org/article.php3?id_article=6877
 http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2008/11/18/stories/2008111851470700.htm
 http://www.indiadaily.com/editorial/4262.asp
 http://www.gov.mu/portal/goc/mfa/files/comesrep.pdf
 http://about.comesa.int/attachments/165_comesa_annual_rep_08_web.pdf
 http://www.expressindia.com/latest-news/Egypt-for-more-strategic-partnership-with-
India/386845/
 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Market_for_Eastern_and_Southern_Africa
 Report - HIGH COMMISSION OF INDIA – LUSAKA, INDIA COMESA RELATIONS
 http://www.indexmundi.com/g/
 WITS – COMTRADE
 World trade atlas
 Upenn.org

By: Yatin Pawa Page 49