2018 JHU Deptof Biostatistics 1. 1
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Class 1 Outline:Data as Evidence
1.Data as Evidence2.Schools of Statistical Thinking3.The Scientific Method4.Biostatistics
•What is biostatistics?•Role of biostatistics in public health•Key ideas in statistical reasoning•Biostatistics and the scientific method
5.The Biostatistics Paradigm6.A Statistical Perspective on Cause7.Example of Scientific Evidence from Studies: Aceh Vitamin A Trial
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1. Data as Evidence
•Associations between air pollution and mortality•Benefits of clinical and community trials•Drug approval decisions•Descriptions of relationships between attitudes and behaviors•Which gene pathways regulate amyloid deposition?
2018 JHU Deptof Biostatistics 1. 2
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2. Schools of Statistical Thinking
•Frequentist statistics
What is the probability of a wrong decision about the treatment effect? What should we conclude from the observed data given a specified null hypothesis?
•Bayesian statistics
What should we believe about the treatment effect given the data that are observed?
•Likelihood inference
What is the evidence about the treatment effect given the data that are observed?
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3. The Scientific Method
Popper (1934) paradigm:
•Competing hypotheses about nature•H
0
,H
1
,H
2
,H
3
, …., H
n
•Design a study and generate data•Science is a process of eliminating hypotheses whose predictions are inconsistent with observation.
Other paradigms
•Kuhn (1970): “Normal” science; paradigm shifts•Big data: Science as description
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3. The Scientific Method
(cont’d)•Often guided by “models”
–Simplifications of the world –“Hypotheses”; Conceptual frameworks –Example: Geocentric vs heliocentric models of the solar system –Example: Dynamical systems view of physiology
Varadhan, Seplaki, Bandeen-Roche, Xue, Mech Ageing Dev, 2008
Few models are “true” but some are useful!
(Box, 1976)
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4. Biostatistics
•
Bio
statistics --
application of statistical reasoning and methods to the solution of biological, medical and public health problems
•Bio
statistics
--
scientific
use of
quantitative information
to describe or draw
inferences
about natural phenomena
–
scientific
--accepted theory (ideas) and practice; ethical standards –
quantitative information
--data reflecting variation in populations –
inference
--to conclude or surmise from evidence
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