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Baseline Energy Consumption

and Greenhouse Gas Emissions


- Part 1 Report, 2012
In Commercial Buildings in Australia

Part 1 - Report

November 2012

Council of Australian Governments (COAG)


National Strategy on Energy Efficiency
Baseline Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Commercial
Buildings in Australia – Part 1 - Report

Prepared by pitt&sherry with input from BIS Shrapnel and Exergy Pty Ltd

Published by the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency

www.climatechange.gov.au

ISBN: 978-1-922003-81-2

© Commonwealth of Australia 2012

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia Licence. To
view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au

The Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency asserts the right to be
recognised as author of the original material in the following manner:

or
© Commonwealth of Australia (Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency)
2012.

IMPORTANT NOTICE – PLEASE READ


This document is produced for general information only and does not represent a
statement of the policy of the Commonwealth of Australia. The Commonwealth of
Australia and all persons acting for the Commonwealth preparing this report accept no
liability for the accuracy of or inferences from the material contained in this
publication, or for any action as a result of any person’s or group’s interpretations,
deductions, conclusions or actions in relying on this material.

Acknowledgment
As part of the National Strategy on Energy Efficiency the preparation of this document
was overseen by the Commercial Buildings Committee, comprising officials of the
Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, Department of Resources, Energy
and Tourism and all State and Territory governments.
Table of Contents

Index of Tables ................................................................................................. iii


Index of Figures ................................................................................................. iv
Glossary ........................................................................................................... v
Abbreviations ................................................................................................... xi
1. Executive Summary ...................................................................................... 1
Overall Conclusions ...................................................................................... 9
2. Introduction ............................................................................................. 11
2.1 Background ..................................................................................... 11
2.2 Project Objectives and Scope ............................................................... 11
2.3 Policy Context .................................................................................. 13
2.4 The Project Team ............................................................................. 13
3. Overview of Methodology ............................................................................. 15
3.1 Stock Model ..................................................................................... 15
3.2 Energy Consumption Data .................................................................... 17
3.3 Data Analysis and Model Construction ..................................................... 19
3.4 Model Validation ............................................................................... 20
3.5 Statistical Confidence ........................................................................ 20
3.6 Key Assumptions ............................................................................... 21
4. Key Issues ................................................................................................ 24
4.1 The Building Stock ............................................................................. 24
4.2 Energy Performance Data .................................................................... 26
4.3 Model Scope and Resolution ................................................................. 29
4.4 Overarching Conclusions ..................................................................... 31
5. Offices .................................................................................................... 32
5.1 Introduction .................................................................................... 32
5.2 Stock Estimates - Offices ..................................................................... 32
5.3 Energy Intensity - Standalone Offices ...................................................... 35
5.4 Total Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Standalone Offices .. 40
5.5 Energy End Use - Offices ..................................................................... 42
5.6 State and Territory Estimates - Standalone Offices ..................................... 46
5.7 Government Owned Standalone Offices ................................................... 49
5.8 Conclusions - Offices .......................................................................... 51
6. Hotels .................................................................................................... 53
6.1 Introduction .................................................................................... 53
6.2 Stock Estimates - Hotels ...................................................................... 53
6.3 Energy Intensity - Hotels ..................................................................... 53
6.4 Total Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Hotels ............................. 55
6.5 Energy End Use - Hotels ...................................................................... 56
6.6 State and Territory Results - Hotels ........................................................ 57
6.7 Conclusions - Hotels ........................................................................... 59
7. Retail Buildings ......................................................................................... 60
7.1 Introduction .................................................................................... 60
7.2 Stock Estimates - Retail ...................................................................... 60
7.3 Energy Intensity - Retail ...................................................................... 64
7.4 Total Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Retail .................. 67
7.5 Energy End Use - Retail ....................................................................... 69
7.6 States and Territory Estimates - Retail .................................................... 69
7.7 Conclusions - Retail ........................................................................... 71
8. Hospitals ................................................................................................. 72
8.1 Introduction .................................................................................... 72
8.2 Stock Estimates - Hospitals .................................................................. 72
8.3 Energy Intensity - Hospitals .................................................................. 74
8.4 Total Hospital Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions ............................. 74
8.5 Energy End Use - Hospitals ................................................................... 75
8.6 State and Territory Estimates - Hospitals ................................................. 76
8.7 Conclusions - Hospitals ....................................................................... 78
9. Schools ................................................................................................... 79
9.1 Introduction .................................................................................... 79

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9.2 Stock Estimates - Schools .................................................................... 79
9.3 Energy Intensity - Schools .................................................................... 81
9.4 Total Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Schools ................ 81
9.5 Energy End Use - Schools ..................................................................... 82
9.6 State and Territory Estimates - Schools ................................................... 83
9.7 Conclusions - Schools ......................................................................... 85
10. Tertiary Education Buildings ......................................................................... 86
10.1 Introduction .................................................................................... 86
10.2 Stock Estimates - Tertiary Education ...................................................... 86
10.3 Energy Intensity - Tertiary Education Buildings .......................................... 89
10.4 Total Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Tertiary Education .. 91
10.5 Energy End Use - Universities ............................................................... 93
10.6 States and Territory Estimates - Tertiary Education .................................... 94
10.7 Conclusions - Tertiary Education ........................................................... 95
11. Public Buildings ......................................................................................... 96
11.1 Introduction .................................................................................... 96
11.2 Stock Estimates - Public Buildings .......................................................... 96
11.3 Energy Intensity - Public Buildings ........................................................ 100
11.4 Total Energy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Public Buildings ...................... 102
11.5 Energy End Use - Public Buildings ......................................................... 103
11.6 State and Territory Estimates - Public Buildings ........................................ 105
11.7 Conclusions - Public Buildings .............................................................. 108

Appendix A Statement of Requirements


Appendix B Bibliography
Appendix C Model Documentation
Appendix D Top-down Model Validation
Appendix E Statistical Analysis

ii
Index of Tables

Table 1.1- Non-Residential, Non-Industrial Building Stock, Australia, 1999-2020 (floor area in
‘000m2) ........................................................................................................... 2
Table 1.2 - Total Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Australia, 1999-2000, Non-
Residential Buildings ............................................................................................ 3
Table 1.3 - Australian Average Energy Intensity Trends by Building Type, 1999 – 2020 ...... 8
Table 3.1 - Energy Data Records and Individual Building Counts by Building Type ........... 18
Table 3.2 – Recommended Minimum Sample Sizes per Year .......................................... 21
Table 3.3 - Population Growth, 1999 to 2020 (millions) ............................................... 23
Table 5.1 - Stand-Alone Office Stock by State and Region, 1999 to 2020 (‘000 m2 NLA) ........ 33
Table 5.2 - Non-Stand-Alone Office Stock by State and Region, 1999 to 2020 (‘000m 2 NLA) ... 34
Table 5.3 - Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Standalone Offices by Sub-Type, 1999-
2020 ............................................................................................................. 41
Table 5.4 - Standalone Offices, Whole Buildings, Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1999 to 2020,
Australia ........................................................................................................ 42
Table 5.5 - Standalone Office Tenancy Energy Consumption by State and Territory ............ 46
Table 5.6 - Standalone Office Base Building Energy Consumption by State and Territory ...... 46
Table 5.7 - Standalone Office Whole Buildings Energy Consumption by State and Territory ... 47
Table 5.8 - Privately Owned Standalone Office Tenancies, Average Energy Intensity by State,
Territory and Region (n > 50/year), 1999 – 2012 ........................................................ 48
Table 5.9 - Privately Owned Standalone Office Base Buildings, Average Energy Intensity by
State, Territory and Region (n > 50/year), 1999 – 2012 ............................................... 48
Table 5.10 - Privately Owned Standalone Office Whole Buildings, Average Energy Intensity by
State, Territory and Region (n > 30/year), 1999 – 2012 ............................................... 48
Table 5.11 - Government Owned Standalone Office Tenancies, Average Energy Intensity by
State, Territory and Region (n > 50/year), 1999 – 2012 ............................................... 49
Table 5.12 - Government Owned Standalone Office Whole Buildings, Average Energy Intensity
by State, Territory and Region (n > 30/year), 1999 – 2012............................................ 50
Table 5.13 - Sample Size Summary, Government-Owned Offices by State and Region, All
Periods .......................................................................................................... 51
Table 5.14 - Sample Size Summary, Privately-Owned Offices by State and Region, All Periods 52
Table 6.1 - Hotel Stock by State and Region, 1999 to 2020 (‘000 m 2 NLA) ......................... 54
Table 6.2 - Hotels, Energy Consumption by Fuel, and GHG Emissions 1999 to 2020, Australia . 56
Table 6.3 - Hotel Energy Consumption by State and Territory .................................... 58
Table 6.4 - Hotels, Average Energy Intensity by State, Territory and Region (n > 5/year), 1999 –
2012 ............................................................................................................. 58
Table 7.1- Shopping Centre Stock Estimates by State and Region, 1999 – 2020 (‘000 m2 GFA) 61
Table 7.2- Supermarket Stock Estimates by State and Region, 1999 – 2020 (‘000 m2 GFA) ..... 62
Table 7.3 - Retail Strip Stock Estimates by State and Region, 1999 – 2020 (‘000 m2 GFA) ...... 63
Table 7.4 - Retail: Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions, 1999 – 2020 ....................... 67
Table 7.5 - Shopping Centre Total Energy Consumption by State, 2009 and 2020, PJ ........... 69
Table 7.6 - Shopping Centre Retail Tenancies Energy Consumption by State, 2009 and 2020, PJ
................................................................................................................... 70
Table 7.7 - Shopping Centre Base Building Energy Consumption by State, 2009 and 2020, PJ . 70
Table 7.8 - Supermarket Total Energy Consumption by State, 2009 and 2020, PJ ................ 70
Table 7.9 - Stand-alone Supermarket Energy Consumption by State, 2009 and 2020, PJ ....... 71
Table 8.1 – All Hospital Stock by State and Region, 1999 to 2020 (‘000 m 2) ....................... 73
Table 8.2 - Total Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Hospitals, 1999-2020 ............. 75
Table 8.3 - Hospital Energy Consumption by State and Territory .................................... 77
Table 8.4 - Public Hospitals, Average Energy Intensity by State, Territory and Region (n >=
10/year), 1999 – 2012 ........................................................................................ 78
Table 9.1 - School Stock (public and private) by State and Region, 1999 to 2020 (‘000 m 2 NLA)
................................................................................................................... 80
Table 9.2 - Total Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Schools, 1999-2020.... 82
Table 9.3 - Schools Energy Consumption by State and Territory ..................................... 84
Table 9.4 - Public Schools, Average Energy Intensity by State, Territory and Region (n >=
10/year), 1999 – 2012 ........................................................................................ 84
Table 10.1 - Stock Estimates, TAFE/VET Floor Area, 1999 – 2020, ‘000m2 ......................... 87
Table 10.2 - Stock Estimates, University Floor Area, 1999 – 2020, ‘000m2 ......................... 88
Table 10.3 - Total Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Vocational Education
and Training (VET) Buildings, Australia, 1999 – 2020 ................................................... 91
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Table 10.4 - Total Energy Consumption by Fuel and Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Universities,
Australia, 1999 – 2020 ........................................................................................ 92
Table 10.5 - Vocational Education and Training Buildings, Total Energy Consumption by State,
1999, 2009, 2020 .............................................................................................. 94
Table 10.6 - University Buildings, Total Energy Consumption by State, 1999, 2009, 2020 ...... 95
Table 11.1 - Public Building Stock by State and Region, 1999 to 2020 (‘000 m 2 NLA) ............ 97
Table 11.2 - Law Court Stock by State and Region, 1999 to 2020 (‘000 m 2 NLA) ................. 98
Table 11.3 - Correctional Centre Stock by State and Region, 1999 to 2020 (‘000 m2 NLA) ..... 99
Table 11.4 - Public Buildings, Energy Consumption by Fuel, and GHG Emissions, 1999 to 2020,
Australia ....................................................................................................... 103
Table 11.5 - Total Energy Consumption, Fuel Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Law Courts,
Australia, 1999 – 2020 ....................................................................................... 104
Table 11.6 - Public Buildings, Average Energy Intensity by State, Territory and Region (where
n>= 10/year), 1999 – 2012.................................................................................. 106
Table 11.7- Public Buildings, Energy Consumption by State, 1999, 2009, 2020 (PJ) ............ 106
Table 11.8 - Law Courts, Average Energy Intensity by State (where n>=6/year), 1999 – 2011 107
Table 11.9- Law Courts, Energy Consumption by State, 1999, 2009, 2020 (PJ) .................. 107

Index of Figures

Figure 1.1 - Total Energy Consumption by Building Type, 2009 (PJ, % shares) ...................... 5
Figure 1.2 - Total Energy Consumption by Building Type, 2020 (PJ, % shares) ...................... 5
Figure 1.3 - Total Energy Consumption: Non-Residential, Non-Industrial Buildings, Australia,
2009 to 2020 (PJ) ............................................................................................... 6
Figure 1.4 - Fuel Mix, All Buildings, 2009 (% shares) ..................................................... 6
Figure 1.5 - Offices (All), Electricity End Use Shares, 1999 - 2012 .................................... 7
Figure 1.6 - Projected Greenhouse Gas Emissions, All Non-Residential, Non-Industrial Buildings,
2009 to 2020 ..................................................................................................... 9
Figure 3.1 - NRBuild Model Schematic .................................................................... 16
Figure 3.2 - Greenhouse Gas Intensity of Electricity Supply by State, 2009 (kg CO 2-e/kWh) ... 22
Figure 5.1 - Standalone Office Stock by State Historical and Projections, 1999 to 2020 ........ 35
Figure 5.2 - Non-Standalone Office Stock by State, Historical and Projections, 1999 to 2020 . 36
Figure 5.3 - Total Energy Intensity versus Area, All Offices........................................... 36
Figure 5.4 - Average Energy Intensity, Office Tenancies, Australia ................................. 37
Figure 5.5 - Average Energy Intensity, Office Base Buildings, Australia ............................ 38
Figure 5.6 - Whole Office Building Energy Intensity, Australia, cf Base Building + Tenancy
Energy Intensity (MJ/m2.a) ................................................................................. 39
Figure 5.7 - Whole Office Building Energy Intensity, Australia, cf Base Building + Tenancy
Energy Intensity without OSCAR data ..................................................................... 40
Figure 5.8 - Office Tenancies, Electricity End Use Shares, 1999 – 2012 ............................ 43
Figure 5.9 - Office Base Buildings, Electricity End Use Shares, 1999 – 2012 ....................... 44
Figure 5.10 - Office Base Buildings, Natural Gas End Use Shares, 1999 - 2012 .................... 44
Figure 5.11 - Offices (All), Electricity End Use Shares, 1999 - 2012 ................................. 45
Figure 5.12 - Offices (All), Natural Gas End Use Shares, 1999 - 2012 ............................... 45
Figure 6.1 - Hotel Energy Intensity, Australia (MJ/m2.a) .............................................. 55
Figure 6.2 - Hotels- Electrical End Use Shares, 1999 – 2012 .......................................... 57
Figure 6.3 - Hotels- Natural Gas End Use Shares, 1999 – 2012 ........................................ 57
Figure 8.1 - Hospitals Energy Intensity, Australia, (MJ/m2.a) ........................................ 74
Figure 8.2 - Hospitals- Electrical End Use Shares, 1999 – 2012 ....................................... 76
Figure 8.3 - Hospitals-Gas End Use Shares, 1999 – 2012 ............................................... 76
Figure 9.1 - Average Energy Intensity, Schools, Australia ............................................. 81
Figure 9.2 - ACT Schools, Electrical End Use Shares, 1999 – 2012 ................................... 83
Figure 9.3 - ACT Schools, Natural Gas End Use Shares, 1999 – 2012................................. 83
Figure 10.1 - Average Energy Intensity, VETs, Australia, 2003 – 2010............................... 90
Figure 10.2 - Average Energy Intensity, Universities, Australia, 2001 – 2011 ...................... 90
Figure 10.3 - VET Buildings– Fuel Shares, Australia 2010 .............................................. 92
Figure 10.4 - University Buildings Fuel Shares, Australia, 2009 ...................................... 93
Figure 10.5 - Universities- Electrical End Use Shares, Australia, 1999 – 2012 ..................... 93
Figure 11.1 - Public Building Average Energy Intensity, Australia, 2001 - 2010 (MJ/m2.a) .... 101
Figure 11.2 - Average Energy Intensity, Law Courts, Australia, 1999 - 2011 ...................... 102
Figure 11.3 - Law Courts- Electrical End Use Shares, Australia, 1999 - 2011 ..................... 105
Figure 11.4 - Law Courts- Natural Gas End Use Shares, Australia, 1999 – 2011 .................. 105
iv
Glossary
Abatement An activity that leads to a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.
Activity In the context of energy efficiency, activity refers to the output
associated with energy use when the output is not a physical product. An
example is space heating or cooling in the residential and commercial
sectors.
Base Building The common areas of a building which are served by central services.
Baseline A projected level of future emissions or energy use against which
reductions by project activities could be determined; or the emissions or
energy use that would occur without policy intervention.
Behaviour Energy user or equipment operator behaviours that affect energy
consumption.
Bottom-up model A method of estimation whereby the individual components that make up
a project are estimated separately. The individual results are then
aggregated to produce an estimate of the entire project. In the context
of this study, estimates of the energy use of individual buildings are
aggregated to estimate the total energy use of all the relevant building
stock.
Carbon dioxide equivalent Greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide,
(CO2‐e) with each gas having different physical properties and global warming
potential. It is conventional to express all gas emissions in “equivalent
amounts of carbon dioxide” where “equivalent” means “having the same
global warming potential over a period of 100 years”.
Co-generation Combined production of electricity and useful heat (for hot water or
space heating) from the same process. Also known as combined heat and
power.
Confidence level Using sample data to make conclusions and estimates about the
population is not always going to be correct. For this reason, a measure
of reliability has been built into the statistical inference. The confidence
level is the proportion of times that an estimating procedure will be
correct. In this project, the minimum sample size is that required in
order to ensure that estimates based on this energy data will be correct
95% of the time.
Cost-effective A measure is cost effective when the present value of the benefits
attributable to the measure exceeds the present value of the costs at a
given discount rate. When these two values are expressed as a ratio (a
benefit cost ratio or BCR), a cost effective measure will have a BCR of at
least 1.
Database (or set) A collection of data records relating, in this context, to a particular
building type.
Duty cycle The work or actions which an appliance or piece of equipment performs
over a set period of time which is representative of the pattern of work or
actions performed over the whole life of the appliance or equipment. The
annual energy use of equipment is a function of numerous variables – one
of the most important is the duty cycle.
Embedded generation Production of electricity from power stations which are connected to the
distribution network (as opposed to the transmission network). Generally
these range from small household solar PV systems to medium scale with
capacity less than 30 MW. In Australia, distributed generation most often
relates to diesel, gas (including cogeneration) or renewables (including
solar, wind, micro hydro or biomass). Also referred to as “distributed
generation”, or “on-site generation”.
Emissions The release of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.

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Emissions intensity An amount of emissions (CO2-e) per a specified unit of output (e.g. GDP,
sales revenue or goods produced).
End use Data regarding the nature of the stock of end-use and conversion
technology/process data technologies.
Energy conversion The process of converting energy from one form to another. Power
stations for instance convert “primary” fuels or renewable energy into
‘secondary’ or ‘final’ forms, such as electricity. A boiler transforms coal,
gas, electricity or other fuels into heat in the form of steam. Each
conversion process involves losses of useful energy, with the greater the
loss, the lower the energy efficiency.
Energy efficiency The amount of useful work that can be performed by an energy using
(general) system per unit of energy consumption. It is generally expressed as a
ratio: useful output to energy input. A piece of equipment or system is
described as more energy efficient to the extent that it performs more
useful work for the same energy consumption, or else performs the same
amount of useful work for less energy consumption. The concept is only
applicable to narrowly defined energy using systems. For complex
systems, such as a manufacturing plant, or a whole sector the number of
energy using processes and variables affecting energy use are too great to
measure energy efficiency in this strict sense.
Energy end use The point at which energy is used in the provision of a final product or
service, rather than producing another form of energy.
Energy intensity The ratio of energy input to useful output.
Energy performance Measurable results relating to energy use and consumption. The term
includes energy efficiency, energy intensity, energy conservation, fuel
choice and greenhouse gas emissions resulting directly and indirectly from
energy use.
Energy services Useful energy or work provided by an energy-using system. The services
may include heating, cooling, mechanical work or electrical system
outputs (computing, communications, etc).
Equipment level energy The consumption of energy measures at the level of individual pieces of
end use equipment at a site. The term is most commonly used to describe energy
use, in residential and commercial buildings, manufacturing facilities or
mine sites, disaggregated to the level of, for instance, a refrigerator, a
chiller, a boiler, a kiln, or a grinding mill. Also referred to as “equipment
energy end use”.
Environmental data A range of environmental or climate variables that may affect the
efficiency of energy-using processes. Examples include “degree days” as
a proxy for external heat loads on a structure, or “relative humidity” that
may affect combustion efficiency.
Explanatory data A broad term covering information about factors that may influence
energy efficiency and energy intensity, such as weather, duty cycle,
prices, exchange rates and many other factors.
Field Data point of a certain type – such as ‘Financial Year’ or ‘Street Address’.
Data records are comprised of such fields.
Finite population Where the population is not infinitely large. Generally, if the sample size
is greater than 1% of the population, the population is assumed to be
finite. In the calculations for the minimum number of buildings required,
assuming an infinite population means that the minimum number of
buildings required to achieve the prescribed confidence level and
accuracy could exceed the actual number of buildings available in a
particular region. In such a situation, the population is considered finite
and the associated calculations assume finite population size.

vi
Fully Enclosed Covered The sum of all such areas at all building floor levels, including basements
Area (FECA) (except unexcavated portions), floored roof spaces and attics, garages,
penthouses, enclosed porches and attached enclosed covered ways
alongside buildings, equipment rooms, lift shafts, vertical ducts,
staircases and any other fully enclosed spaces and usable areas of the
building, computed by measuring from the normal inside face of exterior
walls but ignoring any projections such as plinths, columns, piers, and the
like which project from the normal inside face of exterior walls. It shall
not include open courts, light wells, connecting or isolated covered ways
and net open areas of upper portions of rooms, lobbies, halls, interstitial
spaces and the like, which extend through the storey being computed
(Altus Page Kirkland, 2012).
Final energy use The total amount of energy consumed in the final or end use energy
sectors. It is equal to primary energy use less energy consumed or lost in
conversion, transmission and distribution.
Fuel mix The mix of fuel types within a given amount of energy consumption.
Greenhouse gases The atmospheric gases responsible for causing global warming and climate
change. The major greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide (CO 2), methane
(CH4), nitrous oxide (N20), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons
(PFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6).
GreenPower Certified renewable energy that is delivered to an end user by an energy
supplier.
Gross Floor Area (GFA) The sum of ‘fully enclosed covered area’ and ‘unenclosed covered area’
as defined.
Gross Lettable Floor Area The floor space contained within a retail tenancy measured from the
Retail (GLAR) internal finished surface of external building walls or passageways, but
excluding features such as balconies and verandahs.

Infinite population Where the population is assumed to be infinitely large. Generally, if the
sample size is less than 1% of the population, the population is assumed to
be infinite.
Mean In computing numerical descriptive measures of the data, interest usually
focuses on two measures: (1) a measure of the central, or average, value
of the data and (2) a measure of the degree to which the observations are
spread out about this average value. The mean measures the central
location of the data, also expressed as the ‘average’ in this project.
Metrics Measurement units associated with a quantitative measure, such as
‘thousands of square metres of floor area’, or Petajoules (PJ) of energy.
Minimum energy Regulatory requirements for appliances or equipment manufactured or
performance standards imported to Australia to ensure a set level of energy efficiency
(MEPS) performance is met or exceeded. MEPS typically cover appliances such as
refrigerators, air conditioners and televisions.
Net Lettable Area (NLA) The sum of all lettable areas within a commercial type building,
measured from the internal finished surfaces of permanent walls and
from the internal finished surfaces of dominant portions of the permanent
outer building walls, and including the area occupied by structural
columns and engaged perimeter columns, as defined by the Property
Council of Australia.

vii
Network losses Energy losses incurred in transporting energy over a network. It can
include: heat lost through resistance in electricity wires, gas leaks,
metering errors and theft. It can also include energy used in operating
the network — such as gas consumed to run compressors in gas pipelines.
Online System for A web‐based data tool to record energy and emissions data for
Comprehensive Activity government program reporting. OSCAR standardises reporting from
Reporting (OSCAR) corporations and government. OSCAR calculates greenhouse gas emissions
based on energy and emissions data.
Peak demand The maximum demand recorded in a given area. In the electricity
market, to ensure reliability, supply capacity (generation and network)
must be greater than the peak demand. Peak demand may only occur a
few hours a year and is often driven by temperature due to heating and
cooling loads. The term “peak load” is used interchangeably.
Population A population is the set of all items of interest in a statistical problem.
For example, the population referred to in this project will be the actual
number of buildings within a prescribed category, e.g. actual number of
government owned office buildings in NSW.
Precinct A collection of buildings at the same location, often but not necessarily
with the same owner. Schools, hospitals, universities, airports are all
examples of precincts. Importantly for this study, building types (by
function) may well vary within a precinct, and this variation is often not
captured in statistical data.
Primary energy The total energy consumed of each primary fuel (in energy units) in both
the transformation and end use sectors. It includes the use of primary
fuels in transformation activities—notably the consumption of fuels used
to produce petroleum products and electricity. It also includes own use
and losses in the energy transformation sector. It excludes the
consumption of secondary energy sources such as electricity and
petroleum products.
Process energy use The level at which energy is used by individual systems or processes at a
site. The term is most commonly used to describe energy use, in
commercial buildings, manufacturing facilities or mine sites,
disaggregated to the level of, for instance, cooling, steam production and
grinding. Also referred to as “system level”.
Quality factors Changes in the nature, composition, performance specifications of inputs,
processes or outputs. In this context, changes in qualitative factors or
specifications can significantly affect measured energy consumption,
particularly over longer periods of time. For example, it not strictly
correct to compare the energy consumption of a house or a car from 1940
with one from 2012, as the nature of the house and car (in terms of the
“services” they provide) has itself changed through time.
R2 A statistical measure that indicates the proportion of the variance in one
data series that is attributable to the variance in another. Generally it is
applied in this report to indicate the extent to which a best fit trendline
(e.g., for average energy intensity) explains the variance in calculated
data points.
Record A collection of data points or fields relating, in this context, to a single
building in a single year.

viii
Regression Regression is used to predict the value of one variable on the basis of
other variables. The coefficient of determination, denoted R2, measures
the strength of the linear relationship between two variables. In this
project, R2 is often predominantly used to describe the linear relationship
between financial years and average EUI. The higher the value of R2, the
better the model fits the data.
Renewables Energy sources that are constantly renewed by natural processes over a
short recharge cycle. These include “flow” resources, such as solar,
wind, wave and tidal energy, and some “storage” resources, including
hydropower and some forms of biomass. Recharge cycles are generally
limited to one year, to allow for seasonal restoration of dam storages and
biomass resources, also this definition is contested.
Sample A sample is a set of data drawn from the population. In this project, the
sample data is the energy data collating for each category. A descriptive
measure of a sample is called a statistic. We use statistics to make
inferences about the population (e.g., use the proportion of commercial
buildings energy data collected to make inferences about general
characteristics of all commercial buildings in Australia).
Standard deviation The standard deviation is a measure of variability that is expressed in the
same units as the original data/observations, as is the mean. It is merely
the square root of variance, which measures the variability of a set of
quantitative data.
Standard Error The standard error referred to in this report is the standard deviation of
the mean. It is also referred to as ‘accuracy’ in this report.
Stationary energy Energy produced and used by stationary equipment. Includes energy used
for electricity generation; and fuels consumed in other sectors such as gas
in the manufacturing and mining sectors and wood in the residential
sector.
Stock A measure of the physical extent of buildings in Australia, such as the
number or area of buildings.
Structural data Data that reveal, at the level of sectoral disaggregation being examined,
changes in the composition of activity or the mix of production. For
example data on end use equipment stocks layered by size, efficiency,
age or other parameters. Structural factors vary by sector.
Top-down estimation In the context of this study, it is a method for estimating the overall or
aggregate energy use of all the relevant building stock. Unlike a bottom-
up estimation, it does not rely on estimating the individual components of
a project and then adding them up.
T-test A t-test tests and estimates the difference between two population
means by assuming the distribution is normal. T-tests are conducted
wherever we have claimed or drawn conclusions about two means (e.g.
the average EUI of capital cities buildings is higher than regional
buildings) to test the difference between the two means. If the p-value
of the test is small, we can conclude that there is sufficient evidence to
infer that the average EUI of data set 1 is higher/lower (different) from
the average EUI of data set 2. However, note that a t-test does not
validate the source of the data or reliability of the data set, e.g. if
certain numbers are self-reported without any clear standards or rules to
which energy use is reported, the data might not be reliable at all.

ix
Time of use Refers to the period, in the 24 hour day and the 7 day week, in which
energy use occurs. Time of use is particularly important in the context of
the contribution of a particular energy demand to overall peak load and,
hence, to overall energy system cost.
Trigeneration The simultaneous production of electricity, useful heat (e.g. for domestic
hot water or space heating) and useful coolth (generally, by feeding
waste heat into an absorption chiller) for space cooling. Trigeneration
systems can achieve extremely high conversion efficiencies of 90% or
higher (meaning that less than 10% of the energy in the fuel is wasted).
Unenclosed Covered Area The sum of all such areas at all building floor levels, including roofed
(UCA) balconies, open verandahs, porches and porticos, attached open covered
ways alongside buildings, undercrofts and usable space under buildings,
unenclosed access galleries (including ground floor) and any other
trafficable covered areas of the building which are not totally enclosed by
full height walls, computed by measuring the area between the enclosing
walls or balustrade (i.e. from the inside face of the U.C.A. excluding the
wall or balustrade thickness). When the covering element (i.e. roof or
upper floor) is supported by columns, is cantilevered or is suspended, or
any combination of these, the measurements shall be taken to the edge
of the paving or to the edge of the cover, whichever is the lesser. U.C.A.
shall not include eaves overhangs, sun shading, awnings and the like
where these do not relate to clearly defined trafficable covered areas,
nor shall it include connecting or isolated covered ways (Altus Page
Kirkland 2012).
Useful output The output that an energy-using system or process is intended to
produce; that is, not the waste or byproducts generated by the process.
For example, a lamp produces both light (the ‘useful’ output) and heat
(generally a waste byproduct). Since in physics all energy is ultimately
conserved, in one form or another, ‘useful energy’ refers to the fraction
of the conserved energy that is able to provide energy services.
Z-score Z-score is also called a standard score. It has the effect of transforming
the original distribution to one in which the mean becomes zero and the
standard deviation becomes 1. A negative Z-score means that the original
observation was below the mean. A positive Z-score means that the
original observation was above the mean. The actual value corresponds
to the number of standard deviations the observation is from the mean in
that direction (positive or negative). The Z-score is dependent on the
confidence level and standard error.

x
Abbreviations
ABARES Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences
ABS Australian Bureau of Statistics
AES Australian Energy Statistics
ANZSIC Australian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification
BREE Bureau of Resource and Energy Economics
BCA Building Code of Australia
COAG Council of Australian Governments
CO2 Carbon Dioxide
CO2‐e Carbon Dioxide Equivalent
DCCEE Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency
DEWHA Department of Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts
GHG Greenhouse Gas
GJ Gigajoule
GWh Gigawatt hour
HVAC Heating, ventilation and air conditioning
EEDaF Energy Efficiency Data Framework
EEO Energy Efficiency Opportunities program
EWES Energy, Water and Environment Survey
GFA Gross Floor Area
GLAR Gross Lettable Area Retail
HECS Household Energy Consumption Survey
IEA International Energy Agency
kWh Kilowatt hour
kt Kilotonnes, or thousand tonnes
LPG Liquefied petroleum gas
MEPS minimum energy performance standards
MJ Megajoule
Mt Megatonne, or million tonnes
MWh Megawatt hour
NABERS National Australian Built Environment Rating System
NEM National Energy Market
NFEE National Framework for Energy Efficiency
NLA Net Lettable Area
NSEE National Strategy on Energy Efficiency
NGERS National Greenhouse Energy Reporting Scheme
OSCAR Online System for Comprehensive Activity Reporting
PCA Property Council of Australia
PJ Petajoule
RET Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism
TAFE Technical and Further Education
TJ Terajoule
TWh Terawatt hour
UCA Unenclosed covered area
UFA Usable Floor Area
VET Vocational Education and Training

xi
1. Executive Summary
Context
This project was commissioned by the Australian Government Department of Climate
Change and Energy Efficiency (DCCEE) as part of a joint Commonwealth, State and
Territory Government work program under the National Strategy on Energy Efficiency
(NSEE).

It aims to improve the availability of quantitative information on commercial buildings1


in Australia, their energy use and associated greenhouse emissions. It is intended to
help ground the work of policy makers, analysts, industry, governments, researchers and
a wide range of interested stakeholders in a well-founded and shared information base.
Terms of reference for this project may be found at Appendix A.

The need for improved data on energy use and efficiency in Australia has been
recognised for some time. For example, in the National Framework on Energy Efficiency
(NFEE) Stage 2 Consultation Report that was released in 2007, it was noted:
Fundamental to the development and successful implementation of any new
measures under the NFEE will be a comprehensive set of energy efficiency data.
Currently energy efficiency data is limited, with little information available
about energy use in important parts of the economy, for example commercial
buildings.2

Scope
This report covers the majority of commercial building types in Australia including
stand-alone offices (base buildings, tenancies, whole buildings), hotels, shopping
centres (base buildings, tenancies, whole buildings), supermarkets (tenancies, whole
buildings), hospitals, schools, vocational education and training (VET) buildings,
universities and public buildings (including galleries, museums, libraries and law courts).

This report includes estimates for the building stock, energy consumption by fuel and
end use (where possible), and greenhouse gas emissions by State/Territory and region,
from 1999 to 2020, with 2009 as the ‘base’ year.

Key Findings

 Building Stock
In 2009, the stock of commercial buildings that fall within the scope of this study
amounted to just over 134 million m2 (see Table 1.1). A further 22 million m2 of ‘non-
stand-alone’ office space was estimated to be in use in that same year (refer to Chapter
5 for details). The stock increased by 20% over the decade from 1999 and is projected
to grow by a further 23% over the 11 years from 2009 to 2020. It should be noted that
an attempt has been made to standardise area definitions to a ‘net lettable area’ (NLA),
and in the case of retail buildings, gross lettable area-retail (GLAR). The difference
between the Gross Floor Area and NLA of Buildings in the CBD could be as much as 25%.

1
Often referred to as ‘commercial buildings’, however in the building industry this phrase refers to buildings
that are designed to earn a commercial rate of return on investment for their owners, whereas the set of
buildings covered in this study includes many public buildings which do not share such an objective.
2
NFEE (2007), p. 13.

1
Table 1.1- Non-Residential, Non-Industrial Building Stock, Australia, 1999-2020 (floor area in ‘000m2)
Stand- Retail
VET Public
alone Hotels (Shopping Hospitals Schools Universities Law Courts TOTAL
Buildings Buildings
offices Centres)
1999 29,586 9,547 12,584 12,045 34,622 5,561 6,435 1,639 998 113,018
2000 30,200 9,825 13,330 11,840 34,932 5,561 6,494 1,719 998 114,900
2001 30,814 10,065 13,873 11,651 35,192 6,247 6,530 1,720 999 117,088
2002 31,122 9,964 14,484 11,565 35,575 6,686 6,562 1,725 999 118,682
2003 31,392 10,305 14,903 11,790 35,958 7,011 6,628 1,729 1,002 120,718
2004 32,179 10,381 15,608 11,973 36,438 7,034 6,623 1,733 1,009 122,978
2005 32,751 10,500 16,076 12,295 36,781 7,099 6,582 1,732 1,010 124,827
2006 33,526 10,438 16,505 12,335 37,375 7,353 6,691 1,738 1,014 126,976
2007 34,254 10,499 17,461 12,329 38,021 7,640 6,648 1,766 1,016 129,635
2008 35,271 10,565 18,239 12,462 38,548 8,011 6,686 1,753 1,055 132,591
2009 36,645 10,692 18,270 12,406 39,248 8,837 6,802 1,772 1,053 135,726
2010 37,844 10,761 18,658 12,459 40,024 9,312 6,917 1,780 1,053 138,809
2011 38,316 10,662 19,133 12,508 40,817 9,763 6,964 1,790 1,054 141,007
2012 38,970 10,826 19,648 12,790 41,134 9,997 7,009 1,800 1,128 143,301
2013 39,471 11,003 20,234 13,086 41,611 10,233 7,066 1,800 1,144 145,647
2014 40,064 11,206 20,837 13,506 42,194 10,474 7,142 1,800 1,161 148,384
2015 40,911 11,424 21,451 13,747 42,763 10,721 7,208 1,800 1,177 151,202
2016 42,067 11,608 22,036 13,977 43,370 10,974 7,272 1,800 1,193 154,296
2017 43,403 11,787 22,599 13,984 44,023 11,233 7,338 1,800 1,210 157,376
2018 44,480 11,970 23,318 14,079 44,690 11,498 7,403 1,800 1,226 160,465
2019 45,223 12,156 24,039 14,220 45,360 11,769 7,470 1,800 1,242 163,279
2020 45,736 12,345 24,763 14,451 46,033 12,047 7,537 1,800 1,259 165,970
Source - BIS Shrapnel Note: area is standardised to a ‘net lettable area’ concept, excluding external walls, building cores and standard service areas such as toilets, access
passageways, storerooms, etc

2
Table 1.2 - Total Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Australia, 1999-2000, Non-Residential Buildings
Stand Alone Public
Totals Hotels Retail Hospitals Education
Offices Buildings
Total
Total Total Total Total Total Total
Ener
Energy GHG Energy GHG Energy GHG Energy GHG Energy GHG Energy GHG GHG
gy
Use Use Use Use Use Use
Use
Mt CO2- Mt CO2- Mt CO2- Mt CO2- Mt CO2- Mt CO2- Mt CO2-
FY: PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ
e e e e e e e
1999 - - 29.4 7.8 11.5 2.4 - - 17.1 2.9 12.5 2.9 2.3 0.5
2000 - - 29.8 7.9 12.1 2.5 - - 17.0 2.9 12.6 2.9 2.4 0.5
2001 - - 30.2 8.0 12.6 2.6 - - 16.8 2.9 13.3 3.1 2.3 0.5
2002 - - 30.2 8.0 12.7 2.6 - - 16.8 2.9 13.8 3.2 2.3 0.5
2003 - - 30.2 8.0 13.3 2.8 - - 17.3 3.0 14.3 3.2 2.3 0.5
2004 - - 30.7 8.2 13.6 2.9 - - 17.7 3.0 14.5 3.3 2.3 0.5
2005 - - 31.0 8.1 14.0 2.9 - - 18.4 3.1 14.7 3.3 2.3 0.5
2006 - - 31.5 8.2 14.2 2.9 - - 18.6 3.1 15.2 3.5 2.3 0.5
2007 - - 31.9 8.3 14.5 2.9 - - 18.7 3.1 15.6 3.6 2.3 0.5
2008 - - 32.6 8.4 14.8 3.0 - - 19.1 3.2 16.2 3.8 2.3 0.5
2009 134.6 32.8 33.6 8.7 15.2 3.0 47.2 13.4 19.1 3.2 17.2 4.0 2.3 0.5
2010 137.6 33.4 34.4 8.8 15.5 3.1 48.2 13.6 19.4 3.2 17.9 4.2 2.2 0.5
2011 139.8 34.0 34.6 8.9 15.6 3.1 49.3 13.9 19.6 3.2 18.6 4.4 2.2 0.5
2012 142.7 34.7 34.8 9.0 16.1 3.2 50.4 14.2 20.2 3.3 19.0 4.5 2.3 0.5
2013 145.7 35.4 35.0 9.0 16.5 3.3 51.7 14.6 20.8 3.4 19.4 4.6 2.2 0.5
2014 149.1 36.2 35.2 9.1 17.1 3.4 53.0 15.0 21.6 3.6 19.9 4.7 2.2 0.5
2015 152.5 37.1 35.6 9.2 17.7 3.5 54.4 15.4 22.2 3.7 20.4 4.8 2.2 0.5
2016 156.1 37.9 36.3 9.4 18.2 3.6 55.7 15.7 22.7 3.8 20.9 4.9 2.2 0.5
2017 159.4 38.8 37.1 9.6 18.7 3.7 57.0 16.1 22.9 3.8 21.5 5.1 2.2 0.5
2018 163.0 39.7 37.7 9.7 19.3 3.9 58.5 16.5 23.2 3.9 22.0 5.2 2.2 0.5
2019 166.3 40.5 38.0 9.8 19.8 4.0 60.0 17.0 23.7 3.9 22.6 5.3 2.2 0.5
2020 169.6 41.3 38.1 9.8 20.4 4.1 61.6 17.4 24.2 4.0 23.2 5.4 2.2 0.5
Source - pitt&sherry

3
The modelled stock growth is a function of many factors, which vary between building
types. These are described in chapters 5 to 11. However, a key underlying factor is the
expectation of continued growth in Australia’s population and economy (see Section
3.6).

Estimates of floor area per capita by building type are reported in the body of this
Report. While there are variations by state and region in such calculations, they
generally show consistent trends through time, providing a reasonable indicator of likely
growth in the demand for floor area with a rising population. Other factors, such as
changing population demographics, are also taken account, notably in the projections
for hospital floor space (see Chapter 10 – Hospitals). For background on the stock
model, please refer to Appendix C.

 Total Energy Consumption


Total energy consumption3 in commercial buildings covered by this study is estimated to
have been some 135 PJ in 2009, as shown in
Table 1.2 above. This figure represents around 3.5% of the 3,907 PJ of gross final energy
consumption in Australia in that year.4,5 Total energy consumption is expected to rise by
24% over the period 2009 to 2020, reaching just under 170 PJ by 2020. This reflects a
combination of factors including a rising population, rising economic activity, a growing
stock of commercial buildings and energy intensity trends that vary considerably by
building type.

Retail buildings accounted for the largest share of energy consumption in commercial
buildings in 2009, consuming approximately 47 PJ or 35% of the total (see Figure 1.1).
Office buildings represented the second largest share in 2009, with nearly 34 PJ or 25% of
the total energy consumption. However, as discussed in Chapter 5, if ‘non-stand-alone’
offices are also considered, total energy consumption in offices in Australia could be
significantly higher by approximately 26 PJ, and this would result in the total energy in
all office building types in Australia above that of retail buildings.

By 2020, the share of total energy consumption attributable to stand-alone offices is


projected to fall to 23%, while retail’s share increases modestly (see Figure 1.2 below).
This reflects the projection that energy intensity in offices may fall over the period to
2020, while growth in the office stock (25% by 2020 cf 2009) is slower than retail. By
contrast, retail energy intensity is projected to increase, while at the same time as the
retail stock grows more rapidly than offices (37% by 2020 cf 2009). The energy
consumption shares attributable to other building types are expected to remain largely
static. Expected growth in energy consumption by building type over the period from
2009 to 2020 is presented in
Figure 1.3 below.

3
Note that all references to ‘energy consumption’ in this Report relate to the consumption of final energy
sources, including electricity: conversion losses associated with the transformation of primary fuels into
electricity are not included.
4
ABARES (2011), p. 17.
5
This figure is just under half that reported by ABARES for the total energy consumption of the ‘commercial
and services’ sector of the economy in that year (287.4 PJ). However ABARES data includes energy
consumption that is unrelated to buildings (such as transportation and process energy consumption), including
significant energy using sectors such as waste water/sewage treatment. By contrast, this study only describes
building-related energy use and does not cover all commercial building types. Appendix D provides further
analysis of ‘top-down’ data, contrasting this with the bottom-up findings of this Report.

4
Figure 1.1 - Total Energy Consumption by Building Type, 2009 (PJ, % shares)

2.3, 2%
17.2, 13%
33.6, 25% Stand Alone
Offices
19.1, 14%
Hotels

Retail

Hospitals

15.2, 11%
Education

Public
Buildings
47.2, 35%
.
Source - pitt&sherry

Figure 1.2 - Total Energy Consumption by Building Type, 2020 (PJ, % shares)

2.2, 1%
23.2, 14%
38.1, 23% Stand Alone
Offices
24.2, 14% Hotels

Retail

Hospitals
20.4, 12%
Education

Public Buildings

61.6, 36%
.
Source - pitt&sherry

5
Figure 1.3 - Total Energy Consumption: Non-Residential, Non-Industrial Buildings, Australia,
2009 to 2020 (PJ)

180.0
160.0
140.0
Public Buildings
120.0
Energy (PJ)

Education
100.0
Hospitals
80.0
Retail
60.0
Hotels
40.0
Stand Alone Offices
20.0
0.0
2014
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Year
Source - pitt&sherry

 Fuel Mix
Electricity dominates the fuel mix for all commercial buildings in Australia, with a share
of almost 83% in 2009 (see Figure 1.4 below). Given the relatively high average
greenhouse gas intensity of electricity supply in Australia, this result largely explains
why buildings exhibit a larger share of Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions than their
share of energy use. Natural gas accounted for over 17% of the fuel mix in 2009, while
LPG and diesel shares amounted to less than 1% in total.

Figure 1.4 - Fuel Mix, All Buildings, 2009 (% shares)

0.6%
0.1%

17.0%

Electricity
Gas
LPG
Diesel

82.4%

.
Source - pitt&sherry

6
While electricity is the dominant fuel (or energy source) for all the building types
studied, the fuel mix does vary considerably by building type. Supermarkets, on
average, use close to 100% electricity for their energy needs, while hospitals have the
smallest electricity share, on average, at just over 49% in 2009 (balanced by a greater
than 47% natural gas share).6 Offices are also electricity intensive, with an almost 90%
electricity share in 2009, while shopping centres are similarly high at nearly 98%
electricity. The fuel mix in offices has been largely static since 1999, with only a minor
increase in the share of electricity at the expense of natural gas. Schools increased
their share of electricity use on average from 72% in 1999 to more than 87% in 2009.
Public buildings also increased their electricity use as a share of total energy, on
average, from just under 60% in 1999 to a little over 70% by 2009, with natural gas
shares falling in the same proportion. Looking forward to 2020, we expect the overall
fuel mix across the stock of commercial buildings to be similar in 2020 as in the 2009
base year, with electricity continuing to hold around an 83% share of the fuel mix.
Further analysis of the fuel mix by building type is provided in the Chapters 5-11.

While a few of the data sets available to this study included records indicating use of
GreenPower and/or on-site generation of renewable energy, there was insufficient data
to draw statistically significant conclusions. Similarly, the data sets included no
statistically significant information on the extent of cogeneration or trigeneration in
buildings in Australia.

 Energy End Use


Energy end use is discussed by building type in the Chapters 5-11 below. Consistent
with other studies, heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) is generally the
largest end-use of electricity, with lighting and equipment following behind, while space
heating is the dominant end use for gas. With respect to the minor fuels, the limited
information available suggests that diesel is likely to be used almost exclusively for
back-up power generation, while LPG is likely to be used in a wider range of
applications - particularly in regions without access to natural gas – including use for
cooking, water heating (including for swimming pools in hotels), and some space
heating. As a typical result, office electrical end use shares are shown in Figure 1.5.

Figure 1.5 - Offices (All), Electricity End Use Shares, 1999 - 2012

Average all periods, n=1150

10%
2%

HVAC
20% 43% Lighting
Total Equipment
Domestic hot water
Other electrical process

26%
.
Source - pitt&sherry

6
For hospitals and several other building types, no significant time series trend for fuel mix was evident, and
therefore, the values reported are averages over the 1999 – 2012 period. Where significant trends are
evident, these are reported and modelled in NRBuild.

7
 Energy Intensity
The energy intensity of the buildings studied varies considerably as illustrated in Table
1.3 below. Schools show the lowest energy use per square metre on average, at some
176 MJ/m2.a in 2009, with progressively higher values for vocational education and
training buildings, law courts, universities, offices, and public buildings. Building types
averaging over 1000 MJ/m2.a in 2009 included hotels, hospitals and shopping centres,
while supermarkets showed the highest energy intensity at over 3,300 MJ/m2.a on
average. Note that this study has not examined the energy efficiency potentials of
different building types, and it should not be assumed that the most energy intensive
buildings necessarily offer the highest energy efficiency potentials.

Regarding energy intensity trends through time, offices and public buildings are showing
lower energy intensity through time on average. By contrast hotels, shopping centres,
hospitals, schools and universities are showing rising energy intensity trends on average
which, if not corrected, will tend to accelerate total energy consumption in these
building types. Projections for 2020 are based on historical trends and these may vary as
a function of policy or market factors.

Table 1.3 - Australian Average Energy Intensity Trends by Building Type, 1999 – 2020

Units: MJ/ m2.a 1999 2009 2020


Office - Tenancies 400 385 368
Office - Base Buildings 594 532 465
Office – Whole Buildings 994 917 833
Hotels 1209 1420 1652
Shopping Centres - Base Buildings* 403 403 403

Shopping Centres - Tenancy* - 1202 1202

Shopping Centres - Base +Tenancy* - 1605 1605


Supermarkets (Whole) * - 3375 3375
Hospitals 1420 1542 1676
Schools 166 178 191
VET buildings 368 367 366
Universities 780 868 965
Public Buildings# 1111 947 768
Law Courts 467 550 642
* Only limited time-series data was available for retail buildings, insufficient to describe any
intensity trends. #Museums, galleries and libraries.

Energy intensity observations are also offered at the State/Territory and capital
city/region levels by building type in the body of this report, subject to data adequacy.

 Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions


Greenhouse gas emissions associated with energy use in 2009 in the commercial
buildings covered in this study amounted to some 32 Mt CO2-e, as shown in
Table 1.2. This represents just under 6% of Australia’s total net emissions (excluding
land use, land use change and forestry) in that year. 7 This is much higher than the 3.5%
share of total energy consumption noted above, as the fuel mix is weighted towards
electricity and (on average across Australia) electricity has higher greenhouse gas
intensity than other final energy sources. Emissions in commercial buildings are
expected to grow at a similar rate to total energy consumption, that is, by 27% over the
period 2009 to 2020, as shown in Figure 1.6.

7
DCCEE (2012), p. 16.

8
Figure 1.6 - Projected Greenhouse Gas Emissions, All Non-Residential, Non-Industrial
Buildings, 2009 to 2020
45.0

40.0

35.0
Greenhouse Gas Emissions (MtCO2-e)

30.0
Public Buildings
25.0 Education
20.0 Hospitals
15.0 Retail

10.0 Hotels
Stand Alone Offices
5.0

0.0
2015
2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020
Year

Source - pitt&sherry

Overall Conclusions
This study and the NRBuild model adds significantly to our shared understanding of
energy use and greenhouse gas emissions associated with commercial buildings in
Australia. First, it has created a highly detailed model of the floor area of the building
types covered by the study (and indeed some other building types). This important
contribution, by BIS Shrapnel, addresses a key area of uncertainty in the energy use and
greenhouse gas emissions data of buildings – which is the physical extent of the building
stock.

Second, it has compiled and analysed an unprecedented amount of data on a wide range
of buildings types across Australia, including over 1,700 individual office buildings, over
1,600 schools, almost 1000 retail buildings and tenancies, almost 400 tertiary education
buildings and a similar number of hospitals. In total, some 15,800 data records relating
to over 5,650 individuals buildings have been quality assured and compiled into the
NRBuild model out of a total data set of nearly 20,000 records (the balance were
discarded due to inadequate data quality).

Analysis of this data has enabled a detailed characterization of the relative energy
intensities of different building types and (with the exception of retail buildings) trends
through time. It is apparent that energy intensity varies significantly not only by
building type, but also within building types studied. As discussed further in the body of
the report, much of the volatility in the data appears to be linked to the inclusion of
functionally-distinct sub-types, with widely differing energy intensity, within the one
building category. This is most apparent in the results reported for universities, for
example, where laboratories, cafés and lecture theatres are compiled together, and
also for hospitals, where regional hospices and major teaching hospitals are also
compiled together, despite widely differing energy intensities. In the future, our
understanding of building energy use would be enhanced by separating these
functionally-distinct sub-types, noting however that this would require a statistically
significant data sample for each sub-type resolved. Other sources of data volatility
(beyond the sample size) appear to include data quality issues beyond the scope of the
project to resolve: these are described in detail in Appendix E.

9
Despite the large amount of data compiled and analysed for this study, overall the data
sample falls short of that required for statistically significant resolution of all of the
building types and data fields set out in the terms of reference. The analytical ‘frame’
for this study (13 historical time periods, 15 geographical areas, 15 building sub-types, 2
ownership categories, 5 fuels, and up to 25 end-uses) demands some 730,000 unique and
statistically significant observations. To achieve a confidence level of 95% that each of
these observations is within 10% of the mean, a sample size of some 9700 building
records would be required for each year.

While the data collected for this study represents a substantial start on this task, the
data records are unevenly distributed by year, region and building type. Very little
historical data was available on retail buildings, for example, and these are amongst the
most energy intensive of the commercial buildings studied. Also, the data set was too
small to draw statistically significant conclusions about energy use trends at the sub-
national level in most cases (although such conclusions are drawn where possible with
respect to particular building types).

Overall then, a key conclusion is that additional data capture and analysis is required for
a complete analysis the building types covered in the terms of reference.

At the same time, we note that some of the existing data limitations could be lifted
with modest effort and cost, and without imposing any new reporting burdens, by
measure such as:
 Improving data co-operation and sharing between agencies and levels of government
in Australia
 Improving quality control in existing data collections and systems (such as OSCAR)
 Improving alignment between data owners with respect to key definitions and
statistical concepts.

Also, data collection effort could be targeted to cover specific gaps in the existing data
set. For example, a targeted data collection effort on the historical (1999 – 2010)
energy consumption of retail buildings would enable a full description of that important
building class. Similarly, for certain building types such as schools, the large overall
data set includes almost census-like coverage of some states and territories and no data
at all on others. A focused effort to capture the missing state/territory data would
contribute much more to a statistically-significant picture than additional data
collection in those states already well covered.

Also, data collection effort could be prioritised towards those building types showing
high and/or rising energy intensity and total energy consumption. These include
supermarkets, other retail buildings, hospitals and hotels. By the same token, less
effort would appear to be justified for schools, vocational education and training
buildings and law courts.

10
2. Introduction
2.1 Background
This research was commissioned by the Australian Department of Climate Change and
Energy Efficiency (DCCEE) as part of the joint Commonwealth, State and Territory work
program under the National Strategy on Energy Efficiency (NSEE). The NSEE, which was
approved by the Council of Australian Governments in July 2009, aims:

…to accelerate energy efficiency efforts, to streamline roles and


responsibilities across levels of governments, and to help households and
businesses prepare for the introduction of the Carbon Pollution Reduction
Scheme.8

The NSEE is framed around four key themes:


1. Assisting households and businesses to transition to a low-carbon future
2. Reducing impediments to the uptake of energy efficiency
3. Making buildings more energy efficient
4. Government working in partnership and leading the way.

Within the first theme, Measure 1.4.1 aims to “…improve data upon which national and
jurisdictional energy efficiency policy development reporting and benchmarking can be
based.”9 The work program to give effect this measure is known as the Energy
Efficiency Data Project, which is managed by the Data Working Group (DWG) under the
governance of Standing Council on Energy and Resources and chaired by the Federal
Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism. The Energy Efficiency Data Project is
aimed at:

…improving the evidence base for the development and evaluation of energy
efficiency policies. The project will help achieve this by developing and
implementing a plan for improving energy efficiency data collection and
analysis, including methods to fill identified gaps. This will better inform the
development, refinement and evaluation of new and existing energy efficiency
policies.10

The Energy Efficiency Data Project comprises a range of data improvement projects,
including this study (identified in its work program as ‘Activity E – Energy Use in
Commercial Buildings’), which is managed by DCCEE. That Department issued a Request
for Tender in October 2010, which was awarded in June 2011 to a consortium led by
pitt&sherry in conjunction with major project partners Exergy Australia Pty Ltd and BIS
Shrapnel, with peer review by the Sustainable Built Environment National Research
Centre (see Section 2.4 - Project Team).

2.2 Project Objectives and Scope


This research project involved the creation of a bottom-up model of energy use and
greenhouse gas emissions associated with commercial buildings in Australia. Details on
the methodology used to construct the model are provided in Appendix C. The model is
known as NRBuild (Non-Residential Buildings) v.1.1, which has been developed for COAG
and will be managed in the future by the DCCEE.
The study period covers 1998-99 (financial year (FY) 1999) to 2019-20 (FY2020), with a
‘base year’ for model validation purposes of FY2009.

8
NSEE (2009), p. 4.
9
ibid, p. 13.
10
http://www.ret.gov.au/Documents/mce/energy-eff/nfee/committees/data/default.html , accessed 23
April 2012.

11
The building types/sub-types included are as follows:
 Offices (base buildings, tenancies, whole buildings)
 Hotels
 Shopping centres (base buildings, tenancies, whole buildings)
 Supermarkets (tenancies, whole buildings)
 Hospitals
 Schools
 TAFEs
 Universities
 Public buildings (incl. galleries, museums and libraries)
 Law courts
 Correctional centres.

Building types not covered in this study include:


 Non-standalone offices
 Hotels and motels with fewer than 5 rooms
 Retail buildings outside enclosed shopping centres (other than supermarkets),
including cafes, restaurants, pubs, clubs, retail shopping strips
 Health clinics and doctors’ surgeries
 Standalone aged care facilities
 Kindergartens/child care facilities
 Industrial buildings (including factories, warehouses, coolrooms and freezers)
 Data centres
 Laboratories (although some will be included under ‘Universities’)
 Religious buildings
 Transport-related buildings (airports, train stations, etc)
 All residential building types.

The terms of reference for this study called for the stock and performance of privately-
owned and government-owned offices, hospitals and educational buildings to be
distinguished, and a separate report prepared. However, while some information is
reported in the subsequent chapters, generally there was insufficient data on either the
stock of these buildings by ownership type, or their energy performance, or both, to be
able to draw significant conclusions. Similarly, while stock estimates for correctional
centres are reported, there was insufficient data available to be able to characterise
the energy performance of this stock and thus aggregate fuel consumption and
greenhouse gas emissions are not estimated for this building type.

For each of the building types studied, and for the period 1999 to 202011, this report
estimates:
 Total energy consumption
 Energy consumption by base buildings and tenancies where relevant (offices, retail)
 Fuel consumption (electricity, natural gas, LPG and diesel)
 Renewable energy generation/consumption (where reported)

11
Data limitations prevented the estimation of historical values for retail buildings between 1999 and 2009.

12
 Energy end-use (where reported)
 Greenhouse gas emissions
 Floor area (and, in some cases, other ‘scale’ metrics such as hotel room numbers
and hospital bed numbers).

These values were estimated nationally and for each state and territory, and also
layered by capital cities and ‘regional’ (balance of state/territory). Some data records
collected for this study contain additional fields beyond these ‘core’ requirements.

The project outputs include:


1. This Report, summarising the key findings of the research and documenting the
NRBuild model
2. The NRBuild model
3. A detailed building stock model constructed by BIS Shrapnel, which is incorporated
in NRBuild in summary form.

2.3 Policy Context


The need for improved data on energy use and efficiency in Australia has been
recognised for some time. For example, in the Stage 2 Consultation Report that was
released in 2007 under the National Framework on Energy Efficiency (NFEE) – the
predecessor of the NSEE – it was noted:

Fundamental to the development and successful implementation of any new


measures under the NFEE will be a comprehensive set of energy efficiency data.
Currently energy efficiency data is limited, with little information available
about energy use in important parts of the economy, for example commercial
buildings.12

This sentiment was echoed more recently in the Report of the Prime Minister’s Task
Group on Energy Efficiency, which states:

Without detailed information on what has worked or not in the past (and why),
future actions are likely to be poorly targeted and wasteful. Innovation may be
hindered because levels of uncertainty and risk are too high for investors.
Without the capacity to track, analyse and project our energy efficiency
performance we will not be able to measure progress towards national goals.
This could result in substandard decisions about where to best invest limited
public and private resources…

A large proportion of Australia’s low-cost abatement opportunities out to 2020


will involve unlocking opportunities in energy efficiency that are currently
poorly understood. An effective framework of energy efficiency data and
analysis to inform decisions and to target effort is essential. 13

Finally this study - as the first comprehensive ‘baseline study’ that has been undertaken
for the commercial buildings sector in Australia using primary data sources and analysis
– is expected to contribute materially to a wider Energy Efficiency Data Framework in
Australia. This Framework is being developed by the Australian, State and Territory
Governments under the auspices of the Select Council on Climate Change, and in
particular of the Data Working Group that reports ultimately to this Council.

2.4 The Project Team


This study was undertaken by a consortium comprising:

12
NFEE (2007), p. 13.
13
DCCEE (2010), p. 84.

13
pitt&sherry
 Phil Harrington, Principal Consultant – Climate Change, Project Manager
 Dr Hugh Saddler, Principal Consultant – Energy Strategies
 Dr Tony Marker, Senior Consultant – Building and Appliances
 Phil McLeod, Buildings Analyst
 Mark Johnston, Economist and Policy Analyst.

Exergy Australia Pty Ltd


 Dr Paul Bannister, Director
 Chris Bloomfield, Director
 Alan Saunders, Project Manager
 Rosemary Barnes, Consultant
 Haibo Chen, Consultant
 Grace Foo, Consultant
 James Spears, Intern Energy Consultant.

BIS Shrapnel
 Rob Mellor, Managing Director
 David Moore, Project Manager.

The draft report and model findings were peer reviewed by:

Sustainable Built Environment National Research Centre


 Dr Keith Hampson, Chief Executive Officer.

14
3. Overview of Methodology
This section provides a brief overview of the methodology used in this research, and in
particular the creation of the NRBuild model, version 1.1. For more details, please see
Appendix C – Model Documentation.

The high-level steps that were involved in this project can be summarised as follows:
1. Create a stock model of the relevant building types, by state, region, year and
ownership type (where feasible and relevant)
 Backcast to 1999; forecast to 2020; validate model internally and externally
2. Capture and organise primary data on the energy performance of the relevant
building types
 Data search/request; data compilation; data quality assurance
3. Undertake statistical analysis of energy data sets
 Create analytical ‘frame’ to match the required specifications (timeframe,
spatial resolution, building sub-types, etc); regression analysis to establish
trends through time for each sub-type; projections to 2020; compile sample
size, standard deviations and other statistical indicators; end-use analysis;
4. Build an integrated stock and energy model
 Determine model functionality, user variables; integrate stock and energy/fuel
intensities; calculate key outputs (energy use, greenhouse gas emissions) by
year, region, building type and sub-type
5. Validate model
 Top-down analysis of energy consumption by fuel and building type; comparisons
with other external research reports, independent data sources
6. Analyse and report findings.

Schematically, this same process can be illustrated as shown in


Figure 3.1 below.

3.1 Stock Model


A bespoke stock model was created for this project by BIS Shrapnel, a firm with
specialised expertise in analysis and forecasting in the construction sector. A building
classification structure was developed, drawing largely on that used by the Australian
Bureau of Statistics (ABS), which is based on the concept of the primary function of
buildings.

The primary metric used is floor space measured as ‘000m2 in terms of Net Lettable
Area (NLA) or equivalent, except where otherwise specified. The data used to compile
the estimate of commercial building stock is drawn from a wide array of different
sources, with the different sources often not using a common definition of floor space.
Adjustments have been made to some of the data provided in order that it approximates
an NLA basis. Chapter 5 notes that there is considerable uncertainty surrounding floor
area estimates in Australia.

15
Figure 3.1 - NRBuild Model Schematic

Current stock estimates


BIS Shrapnel adopted a multi-faceted approach to estimating the current building stock
that sought to maximise use of available information, as described below.
 Data search, to enable utilisation of actual data where available
 Frequently, partial floor space data may be available for a particular classification.
For example, data on prison floor space is available for some but not all states.
However, the information that does exist can assist in extrapolating estimates of
prison floor space to all states
 Where actual building stock data is unavailable, we have used alternative metrics as
the basis for estimation of floor area. For example, the use of hotel rooms as a
basis for estimating hotel floor space. Frequently the quality of the estimation is
strengthened by the existence of partial building stock or sample data. For
example, there is sample information available on floor space per hotel room
 Other measures have been compiled to either complete the estimate of building
stock or act as a verification check. Often per capita floor space ratios provide a
basis for the building stock estimate or are used as a verification measure. For
example, to estimate the standalone office floor space in regional areas, the size of
the office workforce was estimated first. Then, an estimate of the office space per
capita for the region acted as a ‘sense check’.

In practice, the emphasis was on accumulating hard data and the development of high
quality metrics with which to estimate floor space.

16
Historical stock estimates
Backcasting the building stock is difficult and more imprecise than estimating the
current building stock because of data limitations. The approach to backcasting the
building stock was similar to that used to construct the estimates of the current building
stock:
 Historical data was used where possible
 Classification metrics also provide a basis for backcasting data. For example, there
is high quality historical data on the number of aged care places. This metric can
be used as a basis for estimating floor space in historical periods. However, it is
subject to the assumption that either the aged care place/floor space ratio is
unchanged over time or can be estimated with reasonable accuracy
 Employment is a metric that can be used as a basis for estimating floor space and
also for backcasting the stock estimates for some classifications. However,
employment may be both volatile and cyclical. For this reason we have often
smoothed the historical stock estimates when they have been derived from
employment data or adjusted them to incorporate information from other sources
such as building construction data or business numbers
 ABS building completion data can provide an insight into the pattern of changes in
the building stock.

Forecast data
The forecasts were based on a combination of existing BIS Shrapnel forecasts and more
detailed sub-classification analysis. The intention was to forecast the underlying trend
in floor space than cyclical ups and downs. The model also allows the easy input of
alternative forecasts, either based on input of known projects or assumed percentage
growth in floor space. The model provides a number of tailored ‘sense checks’ against
which input forecasts can be checked. These vary between classifications, but normally
include historical growth in floor space and also demographic benchmarks. Examples of
the latter include retail floor space per capita, school floor space per school age person,
prison floor space per prisoner.

BIS Shrapnel has validated the building stock model through cross checking with other
data sources and analysts, including further detailed comparisons with data from
Geoscience Australia. However, we note that Geoscience Australia’s total stock
estimates are significantly higher than ours, notwithstanding that the Geoscience model
excludes hospitals and educational buildings. It is beyond the scope of this project to
fully investigate this discrepancy.

3.2 Energy Consumption Data


A feature of this study is that compiles a large amount of quality-assured primary data on
actual building energy performance (along with some secondary data sources, as
described below) to create a model of energy use in this sector. Some 20,000 records,
each with up to 50 data fields (that is, up to 1 million data points) were initially
compiled. With the quality assurance process described below, this number was reduced
to some 15,800 records (relating to 5,650 individual buildings) that are utilised by the
model (see Table 3.1). The number of records exceeds the number of individual
buildings as some records relate to the same building in multiple time periods, while
other records relate to tenancies within the same building.

The sources of this data are described in more detail in Appendix D, but include:
 Energy audit data from Exergy Australia Pty Ltd, pitt&sherry and Energetics Pty Ltd
 NABERS ratings data provided by the NSW Office of Environment and Heritage
 Data provided directly by building owners and managers, including for numerous
universities

17
 Data on government building energy use compiled in the OSCAR database14
 Data provided directly by government departments and agencies
 Public domain data from the public report of individual companies, institutions and
industry associations.

An extensive quality assurance was conducted on these data inputs, as detailed in


Appendix C. Despite this, in Chapter 3 – and in more detail in Appendix E – we note that
there are still shortcomings in some of the data sets used in this study that have been
beyond the scope of this study to address.

Table 3.1 - Energy Data Records and Individual Building Counts by Building Type

Summary statistics on the building energy data used in the model:

Unique building
Building type: Total record count:
count:

Offices 1,715 4,308

Hotels 195 208

Retail 791 878

Retail - tenancies 261 1,102

Hospitals 352 972


Schools 1,641 6,475
Tertiary 385 1,274

Public buildings 28 235

Law courts 283 343

Totals 5,651 15,795


Source - pitt&sherry

Normalisation for Hours of Operation


Where the data included significant information on operating hours (offices, retail), fuel
use and energy use fields were normalised to the average hours of operation revealed in
the relevant data set. For example, within retail tenancies, the data sets compiled for
this study revealed mean values for operating hours per week of 59 for shopping centres
and 96 for supermarkets15. Energy consumption by fuel and end-use was, therefore,
factored for the deviation between the mean values and the actual, reported values for
operating hours (the factor is described in the model as an ‘hour/s of operation energy
intensity factor’). Records containing no information about operating hours were
assumed to have the mean value and, therefore, not normalised.

This normalisation process is important to be able to compare reported fuel and energy
use intensity on a consistent basis with a building sub-type. A supermarket operating for
60 hours per week should use less energy than a supermarket operating for 120 hours per
week, other things being equal. As discussed further in Appendix D, however, the
14
Online System for Comprehensive Activity Reporting.
15
Note that unweighted and area-weighted averages were compared, but differences between these values
were typically small and therefore unweighted or simple averages were used for the normalisation process.

18
relationship between energy consumption and operating hours may not be linear, and in
particular is less likely to be so as the value for hours of operation reaches extremes, due
to the ‘fixed’ energy consumption of refrigeration, cool rooms, security lighting and
other systems. Normalisations for other factors – such as climate – may also be relevant
in certain circumstances. The NRBuild model is designed to facilitate a wide range of
user investigations. For example, the ‘non-normalised’ energy data may be interrogated
within the model, and the ‘energy intensity factor’ associated with hours of use may be
varied by the user.16

3.3 Data Analysis and Model Construction


The energy data sets were analysed according to the analytical ‘frame’ required for this
study; that is, by building type and sub-type, ownership type (offices), year (data
records covered the period 1999 to 2012), state and territory, region (capital city vs
regional, or balance of state, with ACT treated a ‘capital city’ only). As discussed in
Section 3.5 below, this analytical frame requires around 730,000 statistically valid
observations to be fully populated and therefore completely resolved.

For each combination of building type, ownership type, state, region and year,
observations were calculated from the data sets regarding the intensity of use of
individual fuels (electricity, gas, LPG, diesel and renewables, where revealed, or ‘total
energy’, where fuel use is not revealed). Each observation is associated with the
sample size (the number of separate records used) relied upon for that observation. A
tool is provided within the model that enables the user to specify the minimum sample
size per observation, with all values that fall below that sample size being eliminated
from the analysis. This provides an initial tool for the model user to test and visualise
the robustness of each analysis.

The next step was to construct time-series analyses, including backcasting to 1999 and
forecasting to 2020. For each building sub-type, a regression analysis was performed on
at least the average national energy intensity time series, as this provided the largest
data sample. In some cases, there was sufficient information on fuel mix changes
through time to also be able to perform regression analyses. We note that regression
analyses could be performed on many other parameters within model. The model
includes a tool which enables the user to specify the minimum sample size relied upon
for regression analyses. Generally, simple linear regressions provided adequate
interpretation of data trends, although this varied greatly by building type and sub-type,
as reported on in the relevant chapters below.

The model then captures fitted trends in energy intensity and fuel mix over time, by
building sub-type, with the stock trends for that building-type, to estimate the evolution
of total fuel use, and hence greenhouse gas emissions over time. The model aims to
balances ease of use with flexibility, to cater for a range of uses and users with
different requirements and skill levels. Default values for all key variables are
calculated from the data sets as described above, together with other factors such as
the greenhouse gas intensity of electricity supply by state through time, and these are
used to populate summary tables of energy use and greenhouse gas emissions.

At the same time, more advanced users, or users with particular research needs, may
substitute their own assumptions for key variables in order to understand the effect of
these assumptions on energy use and/or emissions. This feature is limited to years after
the ‘base year’ (FY2009), to ensure that historical values are not changed. The user-
specifiable values (for each building sub-type) include:
 Greenhouse gas intensity of electricity supply by state by year
 Average energy intensity by year
 Fuel mix by year (including Green Power/onsite renewables share)
 Stock growth by year

16
Subject to confidentiality constraints.

19
 (Where relevant) an ‘operating hours intensity factor’ (comprising hours of normal
operation per week and weeks of shut down per year).

A comprehensive ‘dash-board’ is provided for each building subtype for the purpose of
a) making transparent to the user the default values relied upon in the analysis; and b)
facilitating the substitution by the user of alternative values, should they wish to do so.
Note that this feature also provides a ready process for updating the model through
time: as new ‘historical’ values become available (such as the actual value for
greenhouse gas intensity of electricity supply in Victoria in 2011, or the actual rate of
stock growth for NSW hospitals in 2012), these values can be inserted into the model by
the user and all output tables will automatically recalculate, helping to maintain the
model’s currency and calibration through time.17

3.4 Model Validation


The process used for model validation is described in detail in Appendices D and E. In
summary, top-down data sources, such as ABARES’ Australian Energy Statistics and ABS
publications such as Energy, Water and Environment Survey or EWES) are used to
compare with bottom-up model estimates for energy consumption by fuel in the
specified base year (FY2009). We stress that there are very significant limitations
associated with such top-down analyses, and generally speaking top-down data will tend
to over-estimate energy use in buildings, as the source data is reported energy
consumption by ANZSIC classification. To varying degrees, the energy consumption
reported may not relate to buildings. An attempt has been made to estimate the
building related portions, and also to reconcile the different reporting bases for these
two key top-down data sources, and the results are reported in Appendix E.

Beyond this, we have compared model outputs with independent and reputable
observations for these same outputs. Typically these observations are by state
government departments or industry associations. This analysis may be found in
Appendix E.

3.5 Statistical Confidence


The analytical ‘frame’ for this study (13 historical time periods, 15 geographical areas,
15 building sub-types, 2 ownership categories, 5 fuels, and up to 25 end-uses) demands
around 730,000 unique and valid statistical observations to be fully populated. This
begs the question, how many (valid and complete) data records are required to achieve
reasonable confidence in the results?

We have calculated the minimum number of buildings records required, for each
building type and year, using the standard deviation and mean of the current dataset.
This is based on achieving a confidence level of 95% that each data point is within 10% of
the mean. The results are summarised in Table 3.2 below, while Appendix E provides
further details.

In summary, a sample size of some 9700 building records is required each year, or
around 126,000 records for the 13 years from 1999 to 2012, would be required to meet
this confidence requirement. The terms of reference of this study called for a minimum
sample of 1,000 buildings, with 400 end-use breakdowns. While in fact close to 16,000
valid records were compiled which represents around 13% of the sample required to
meet the confidence requirements.

However, these estimates were based on a number of assumptions, as discussed in


Appendix E. In reality, a smaller sample may be judged sufficient. For example, we
note that well over half of the required annual sample relates to schools (5227 records).
From the large sample of school energy data compiled for this study, there appears to
be limited variability in energy intensity between different schools within a state (but
larger variability between states).

17
Note that the model will nevertheless lose validity through time if not updated with new data, and we
recommend that this occurs at no more than three-year intervals.

20
Therefore, it may suffice to compile a smaller data set for each state, but ensure that
all states are covered (the current data set has no coverage of TAS, VIC, WA or SA).
Also, annual data may not be required to establish valid time series trends; data points
every three years may suffice.

Table 3.2 – Recommended Minimum Sample Sizes per Year

Minimum sample size, per year

Offices 1508
Hotels 540
Hospitals 258
Schools 5227
University Buildings 679
VET Buildings 181
Shopping Centres 692
Supermarkets 319
Public Buildings 106
Law Courts 154
TOTAL AUSTRALIA 9664
Source – pitt&sherry/Exergy Australia. Assuming 13 regions are resolved with 95% confidence
level and a 10% standard error and a finite population.

3.6 Key Assumptions


3.6.1 Greenhouse Gas Intensity of Electricity Supply
An important assumption underpinning the greenhouse gas emissions projections is the
greenhouse gas intensity of electricity supply. This varies widely by state and, in some
cases, has also changed significantly in the period since 1999. The future path of this
variable is highly uncertain, particularly at a state level. Some projections for Australia
as a whole are contained in the Treasury modelling of the carbon pricing scheme. 18
However these are not broken down by state. Also, there is increasing interconnection
of states (at least from SA to Qld) and interstate trading of electricity within the
National Energy Market (NEM), which is increasingly blurring the unique state-based
greenhouse ‘signatures’ through time. As a result of this uncertainty, the NRBuild
model makes the conservative assumption of no change in the 2010 values for
greenhouse gas intensity of electricity supply by state out to 2020 (see Figure 3.2).
However, these variables may be altered by the model user and unique values specified
by year for each state and territory if desired. The greenhouse gas intensity of other
fuels has been sourced from the National Greenhouse Accounts Factors Workbook 2011
and these are assumed to remain unchanged through to 2020.19

18
Federal Treasury (2011).
19
DCCEE (2011).

21
Figure 3.2 - Greenhouse Gas Intensity of Electricity Supply by State, 2009 (kg CO2-e/kWh)

1.4

1.2

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0
NSW VIC QLD WA SA TAS ACT NT

Source - pitt&sherry, from DCCEE (2011)

3.6.2 Population Growth


The modelled stock growth is a function of many factors, which vary from building type
to building type. These are described in the relevant chapters. However, a key
underlying factor is the expectation of continued growth in Australia’s population and
economy. For example, in the chapters by building type, estimates for floor area per
capita are reported. While there are variations by state and region in such calculations,
they generally show consistent trends through time, providing a reasonable indicator of
likely growth in the demand for floor area with a rising population. Other factors, such
as changing population demographics, are also taken account, notably in the projections
for hospital floor space (see Chapter 10 – Hospitals). For background on the stock
model, please refer to Appendix C, while further details are provided on the expected
evolution of the stock by building type in the relevant chapters.

Table 3.3 summarises expected population trends by State/Territory and region over the
study period.

22
Table 3.3 - Population Growth, 1999 to 2020 (millions)

NSW VIC QLD WA SA TAS NT ACT AUSTRALIA

Sydney Regional Melbourne Regional Brisbane Regional Perth Regional Adelaide Regional Hobart Regional Darwin Regional

1999 4.02 2.39 3.38 1.31 1.57 1.93 1.36 0.49 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.28 0.1 0.09 0.31 18.93

2000 4.07 2.42 3.42 1.32 1.6 1.96 1.37 0.5 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.27 0.11 0.09 0.32 19.15

2001 4.13 2.45 3.47 1.33 1.63 2 1.39 0.51 1.11 0.4 0.2 0.27 0.11 0.09 0.32 19.41

2002 4.16 2.47 3.52 1.34 1.67 2.05 1.41 0.51 1.12 0.41 0.2 0.27 0.11 0.09 0.32 19.65

2003 4.19 2.48 3.58 1.35 1.71 2.1 1.44 0.52 1.12 0.41 0.2 0.28 0.11 0.09 0.33 19.91

2004 4.21 2.49 3.63 1.36 1.78 2.12 1.46 0.52 1.13 0.41 0.2 0.28 0.11 0.09 0.33 20.12

2005 4.25 2.51 3.68 1.37 1.82 2.17 1.49 0.53 1.13 0.42 0.2 0.28 0.11 0.1 0.33 20.39

2006 4.28 2.53 3.74 1.38 1.86 2.23 1.52 0.54 1.15 0.42 0.21 0.28 0.11 0.1 0.33 20.68

2007 4.34 2.56 3.82 1.4 1.9 2.29 1.56 0.55 1.16 0.43 0.21 0.29 0.12 0.1 0.34 21.07

2008 4.42 2.6 3.9 1.42 1.95 2.36 1.61 0.57 1.17 0.43 0.21 0.29 0.12 0.1 0.35 21.5

2009 4.5 2.63 4 1.45 2 2.42 1.66 0.59 1.19 0.44 0.21 0.29 0.12 0.1 0.35 21.95

2010 4.58 2.66 4.08 1.47 2.04 2.47 1.7 0.6 1.2 0.44 0.22 0.29 0.13 0.1 0.36 22.34

2011 4.64 2.68 4.15 1.49 2.08 2.51 1.73 0.61 1.21 0.45 0.22 0.3 0.13 0.11 0.36 22.67

2012 4.7 2.71 4.21 1.51 2.11 2.56 1.77 0.62 1.22 0.45 0.22 0.3 0.13 0.11 0.37 22.99

2013 4.76 2.74 4.28 1.52 2.16 2.61 1.81 0.64 1.23 0.45 0.22 0.3 0.14 0.11 0.37 23.34

2014 4.82 2.77 4.37 1.54 2.21 2.67 1.86 0.66 1.25 0.46 0.22 0.3 0.14 0.11 0.38 23.76

2015 4.89 2.8 4.44 1.56 2.26 2.73 1.91 0.67 1.26 0.46 0.23 0.31 0.14 0.12 0.38 24.16

2016 4.95 2.82 4.52 1.57 2.3 2.79 1.96 0.68 1.28 0.46 0.23 0.31 0.15 0.12 0.39 24.53

2017 5.01 2.85 4.6 1.59 2.36 2.84 2.01 0.7 1.29 0.47 0.23 0.31 0.15 0.12 0.39 24.92

2018 5.08 2.88 4.68 1.61 2.41 2.9 2.06 0.71 1.31 0.47 0.23 0.31 0.15 0.12 0.4 25.32

2019 5.14 2.9 4.75 1.63 2.46 2.95 2.11 0.72 1.33 0.48 0.23 0.31 0.16 0.13 0.4 25.7

2020 5.2 2.93 4.83 1.64 2.51 3.01 2.16 0.74 1.34 0.48 0.24 0.31 0.16 0.13 0.41 26.09

Source - BIS Shrapnel, from ABS data

23
4. Key Issues
A full understanding of the energy consumption of commercial buildings in Australia
requires adequate knowledge of at least five key parameters:
1. The structure of the sector (i.e., its physical nature including building numbers,
total area, location, number of floors, etc; the fuel mix within the sector; the stock
and nature of end use equipment such as lighting equipment, space conditioning
equipment, etc; operational requirements and settings such as temperature set-
points, ventilation rates, minimum lighting levels, etc)
2. Activity levels within the sector (the intensity of use of buildings, such as hours of
operation, visitor or staff numbers, hospital bed numbers and separations, etc; and
the intensity of use of end-use equipment within buildings)
3. The energy intensity of fuel use (fuel use per unit of structure or activity)
4. Explanatory factors (a wide range of variables that may help interpret observed
trends, including climate data, energy prices)
5. The inter-relationships between these factors, so that causality can be established
(for example, it may be revealed that larger hospitals use more energy per unit area
than smaller hospitals, but is this because they have a higher turnover of patients,
more patients per unit floor area, more medical equipment and higher rates of
usage of such equipment, higher service levels (like temperature set points, lighting
levels), or some combination of these factors.

However as noted in Chapter 3, there is a significant shortage of reliable,


comprehensive and spatially disaggregated data in the public domain with respect to
energy consumption and end use, correlated with activity levels and the structural
composition of the built environment in Australia. While this study goes some way
towards addressing this shortage, it represents a one-off study, which is not a substitute
for an ongoing statistical data collection and analysis process.

This chapter reviews the key issues, including uncertainties, in some detail. It covers
issues with respect to:
1. The building stock
2. Energy performance data
3. The NRBuild model scope and resolution.

4.1 The Building Stock


The aim of this study is to understand energy use in commercial and associated
greenhouse gas emissions, in particular by building up ‘bottom up’ model of the
intensity of energy use in different building types. However, a key and prior issue is the
very considerable uncertainty that surrounds the nature and extent of the physical stock
of buildings in Australia. There is no single or authoritative source that can be referred
to in order to answer key questions such as:
 How many commercial buildings are there in Australia?
 How many square metres of commercial buildings are there?
 What is the break-down of the stock by function, size, age, location, ownership,
tenancy or other key parameters?
 How are these parameters changing through time?
Similarly, there is very limited information on the intensity of use of buildings (eg, hours
of operation, building occupancy levels, occupant behaviours, etc), and yet these usage
patterns will affect energy consumption in a significant manner.

24
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) conducts certain surveys including Building
Approvals, Australia (ABS 2011a), Building Activity, Australia (ABS 2011b) and
Construction Work Done, Australia, Preliminary (ABS 2011c). The building activity
survey covers the value of construction of new buildings and alterations and additions to
existing buildings. However, no data is captured (or at least published) on the physical
result of this expenditure, such as a change in the number, area or quality of buildings
comprising the extant building stock. For example, the flows of expenditure recorded
may relate to the creation of new stock, the refurbishment of existing stock or even the
demolition of stock. As a result, the ABS value of construction data cannot be used
directly to estimate the building stock through time. It does, however, provide a
validation source for estimates produced from other primary sources.

The ABS also produces a range of data series which can be useful to support analysis of
energy consumption and as a tool to either provide a proxy or a verification of the
estimate of the building stock. For example, it produces a series on the number of hotel
rooms,20 which is a useful analytical tool in its own right as well as being indicative of
the floor area stock of hotels.

The Property Council of Australia (PCA) and BIS Shrapnel both maintain important data
sets with respect to commercial office buildings. PCA’s Office Market Report (available
commercially online) covers approximately 4,500 office buildings in over 30 office
markets around Australia, including historical data since January 1990 for total stock,
vacancy, supply, withdrawals and net absorption, with a comprehensive list of future
supply and development details. The spatial coverage of the model is wide, covering all
central business districts and 17 regional centres, but it does not cover the whole of
Australia.

Other companies including property developers and managers, and bodies such as the
Real Estate Institute of Australia (REIQ), the Facility Management Association (FMA), the
Construction Forecasting Council and many others are likely to hold relevant data.
However, such data are not always available in the public domain. For hospitals, the
Institute of Health and Welfare maintains the ‘Australian hospital statistics’ series (AIHW
2011).

4.1.1 Building Stock Structure and Turnover


For many policy applications, it is essential to understand factors such as:
 The rate of entry of new buildings into the stock
 The rate of demolition of existing buildings in the stock
 The extent of ‘major refurbishment’ of the existing stock, for example, a level of
refurbishment sufficient to trigger the application of the current version of the
Building Code of Australia
 The number of buildings by size, type and location
 The age profile of the stock (or distribution by ‘vintage’ year).

At present, there are no statistical collections in the public domain that bear directly
upon such questions. As a result, the stock model constructed for this study does not
explicitly represent stock turnover, but rather the total stock in each time period. That
is, the stock model is not able to be layered by the age or ‘vintage’ of the buildings, or
to separately represent additions, refurbishments and retirements. Further, it
estimates total floor area by building type, rather than building numbers layered by
building size. Depending upon the context, both of these would be useful.

4.1.2 Floor Area Definitions


A key uncertainty for the estimation of the floor area of commercial buildings in
Australia – and hence for their energy intensity – is the inconsistent application of floor

20
ABS Catalogue 8635.0, Tourist Accommodation, Australia, Dec 2011.

25
area definitions in different data sets. Numerous floor area concepts are in use in
Australia, with sectors (such as retail, commercial, education, hospitals) tending to use
similar concepts within their sector21. However, depending upon the data source, it is
very common that the conceptual basis of floor area estimates varies between building
type and source, is inconsistently applied, or is simply unstated. Most of the OSCAR
data sets relating to government owned or occupied buildings, including offices,
hospitals, schools and tertiary buildings fall into this category. As there may be a 25%
difference in floor area (m2) between a net lettable area (NLA) concept and a gross floor
area (GFA) concept, this may introduce up to 25% error in energy intensity and,
potentially, total energy consumption, estimates.

In principle, this error could be eliminated if both the area estimation and the energy
intensity estimation are conducted using the same conceptual construct for area.
However, in practice, both the underlying data sources used for the stock model in this
study, and many of the energy data records, are ambiguous on this key point. BIS
Shrapnel has attempted to standardise all floor area estimates to a NLA basis, or
approximate equivalent. This may tend to understate total energy consumption in the
non-retail sectors as reported in this study. The differences in sources and definitions of
data accessed by BIS Shrapnel also mean that inter-state and intra-state comparisons of
floor space should be treated with caution. Although BIS Shrapnel has attempted to
normalise the data, the normalisation process is only approximate.

4.2 Energy Performance Data


Statistical information about energy consumption in Australia is collected through three
primary processes. First, enterprises that consume at least 200 TJ of energy per year
are required to report their consumption under the mandatory National Greenhouse and
Energy Reporting (NGERS) legislation. NGERS is managed by the Clean Energy Regulator.
This reporting process covers around 700 major enterprises involved in energy
production, transformation or consumption, and is limited to controlling corporations
that produce or consume at least 200 TJ of energy or individual sites that produce or
consume 100 TJ. It is estimated that NGERS captures data on around 90% of Australia’s
total energy consumption, although this energy is consumed by just 0.1% of Australia’s
business enterprises.22 That is, it captures no data on the 99.9% of businesses that
consume less that 200 TJ per year. Many sectors of the economy are likely to be wholly
or largely absent from NGERS energy consumption data, with examples including
agriculture, fishing and forestry; public administration and safety; administrative and
support services; and education and training inter alia. It captures no data on the
energy consumption of non-incorporated entities, which may include charities and other
organisations that occupy commercial buildings. NGERS also does not capture any
information on energy end-use, for example, what portion of the total energy
consumption reported is associated with buildings.

Second, the ABS has recently commenced a new survey, the Energy, Water and
Environment Survey (EWES) (ABS Publication 4660.0 - Energy, Water and Environment
Management, 2008-09) which was sent to some 14,000 Australian businesses 23. This
publication was released for the first time in 2011 and is expected to be repeated at
least every three years. This publication contains estimates of energy expenditure and
usage by Australian businesses for 2008-09 inter alia. EWES provides valuable data on
enterprise numbers, expenditure on fuels, fuel use by enterprise size and other
parameters, for a number of sectors that may be defined, at least partially, as
‘commercial’. These sectors (and their relevant ANZSIC division code) include:

21
See, for example, the online publication, Property Council of Australia (PCA) Method of Measurement (A
Summary),
athttp://www.unisanet.unisa.edu.au/staff/peterrossini/Basic_Property_Resources.htm?http://www.unisanet.
unisa.edu.au/staff/peterrossini/Basic_Property_Resources/Property%20Council%20of%20Australia%20(PCA)%20
Method%20of%20Measurement%20(A%20Summary).htm accessed on 3 May 2012.
22
Personal communication with ABARES.
23
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/4660.0Explanatory%20Notes12008-
09?OpenDocument#PARALINK7

26
 Wholesale trade (Division F)
 Retail trade (Division G)
 Accommodation and food services (Division H)
 Information media and telecommunications (Division J)
 Auxiliary finance and insurance services (parts of Division K)
 Rental hiring and real estate services (Division L)
 Administrative and support services (Division N)
 Public order safety and regulatory services (Division O)
 Arts and recreation services (Division R)
 Other services (Division S).

However, the survey excludes certain sectors, many of which fall into the scope of this
study, including:
 Agriculture
 Water Supply, Sewerage and Drainage Services
 Finance
 Insurance
 Public Administration
 Defence
 Private Households Employing Staff
 General Government.

Also, no information is available from this source on energy end use, and this prevents
accurate disaggregation of total energy consumption within these sectors into that
associated with commercial buildings (or end uses within those buildings), as distinct
from other energy uses including transportation and process energy use. Nevertheless
EWES helps to fill a gap left by NGERS, and that is coverage of the energy consumption
of the very large number of smaller energy users in Australia. BREE therefore uses both
the NGER and EWES data in a range of statistical techniques to estimate total
consumption, which is validated in its energy balance process.

In a third key process, ABARES/BREE produce each year the Australian Energy Statistics
(AES). AES provides data on total annual energy consumption in ‘commercial and
services’ sector, inter alia, by State and by fuel (ABARES 2011). AES draws on a wide
range of primary data sources, chief of which is NGERS (replacing its own Fuel and
Electricity Survey), and sector-specific surveys or data sources. However, the
limitations of the AES for this study include that the data is not broken down by ANZSIC
Division or enterprise, and does not reveal the portion of energy consumption
attributable to energy use in commercial buildings (as distinct from other aspects of the
operations of entities in the sector). No end-use information is available from this
source. Importantly, however, AES is prepared following a full energy balance process
that reconciles energy production, trade and intermediate and final consumption, which
means that its aggregate values for energy consumption are robust.

Beyond these data sources, there are a number of other data sources that provide some
insights into building energy use. For example the Energy Efficiency Opportunities
(EEO) program requires entities that consume more than 0.5 PJ (500 TJ) of energy
annually to assess and report efficiency opportunities. Some of these entities will have
energy consumption that is largely associated with commercial buildings (eg, banks,
property groups, retailers). Indeed, it is estimated that some 25% of energy use in the

27
services sector is attributable to companies that report under EEO 24. However, only
aggregate national consumption by EEO companies is reported and no detailed end use
or activity data (e.g. m2 of buildings) is published. Nevertheless, some individual EEO
companies voluntarily reports additional information.

An important data set has been compiled over time in NABERS, the National Australian
Built Environment Rating System. A database of all assessments performed under
NABERS has been compiled covering a range of building types including offices, hotels,
and retail shopping centres (with others under development). Some of this data has
been accessed for this project. For further information on the data sources used for this
study, please refer to Appendix C.

4.2.1 Energy End Use by Building Type


Within the overall paucity of statistical information on building energy performance, a
particular gap is that there is no regular statistical collection that identifies the nature
of energy end use in the commercial buildings sector. This contrasts greatly with the
relatively rich understanding of energy end-use in residential buildings, resulting from
numerous and regular ABS data collections 25, along with detailed data on the stock and
efficiency of new appliances resulting from the national minimum energy performance
standards and labelling program.

This study has compiled over 400 end-use breakdowns. However, given the large
number of years, regions and building types covered in this study and resolved in the
NRBuild model, this has proven sufficient only for broad averages to be compiled for end
use for some building types, and none at all for some fuels and building types. A well
targeted data survey focusing on energy end use could fill this knowledge gap, allowing
greater resolution within the model and greater utility for policy analysis.

4.2.2 Data Quality


While the data compiled for this study has been extensively quality assured, as
described in Appendix C, to remove obvious errors, some data sources exhibit signs of
bias or error that were beyond the scope of this research to resolve. In Appendix E we
provide a formal statistical analysis of the compiled data sets.

We note in particular that generally data on Commonwealth and state/territory


government building energy use, compiled in the OSCAR database, contained numerous
errors (which were able to be removed), but also exhibit unusual distributions between
total energy use and floor area leading to atypical energy intensities, which may
indicate error in the data as transcribed. An analysis of the reliability of OSCAR data, as
compared to data from other sources, is included in Appendix E. Further, we note that
the OSCAR data appears to be highly fragmented – with building information, energy
consumption and scale data for the same building sometimes held in three separate
locations – while key parameters (such as floor area definitions) are not specified. Many
other data records are highly aggregated up to the level of government department or
agency’ and fail to resolve details of individual buildings or locations. This severely
limits the utility of this data for analytical purposes.

4.2.3 Improved Access to Existing Data


Governments have for some time recognised the need to minimise the reporting burdens
on business and other organisations, while at the same time capturing sufficient quality
of information for the development and administration of public policy. A key
‘streamlining’ opportunity is to improve access to and sharing of data that is already
being collected for different purposes, often by different agencies and different levels

24
RET, Continuing Opportunities Report 2010, p. 7.
25
For example: ABS Catalogue 3101.0, Australian Demographic Statistics, Sep 2011; ABS Catalogue 3236.0
Household and Family Projections, 2006 – 2031, Mar 2012; ABS Catalogue 8750.0 Dwelling Unit
Commencements, Mar 2012; ABS Catalogue 5609.0 Housing Finance, Australia, Feb 2012; ABS Catalogue
4602.0.55.001 Environmental Issues: Energy Use and Conservation, Mar 2011.

28
of government, consistent with maintaining necessary confidentiality and privacy
conditions.

In practice, this may require different data owners to collaborate with the aim of
standardising definitions and statistical approaches, agreeing appropriate mechanisms
for managing confidentiality that avoid duplication of data collection, and improving
‘meta data’ on existing data collections – that is, providing wide access to detailed
descriptions of the nature and content of different data collections. While important,
limitations to data sharing based on confidentiality are often overstated. For example,
data can be shared if it is made clear in advance to the businesses and other providers
of data for one administrative purpose (such as the administration of specific programs
at the different tiers of government) that data collected may be utilised for ‘public
policy analysis’ purposes.

4.3 Model Scope and Resolution


An important limitation on the accuracy and comprehensiveness of estimates in this
study of total energy consumption (and greenhouse gas emissions) by commercial
buildings in Australia is the scope of building types studied.

As noted above, there are building types not covered by this project. As the energy
consumption of these ‘missing’ buildings is indeterminate, it complicates the process of
reconciling model outputs with top-down energy consumption data (see 3.3.1 and
Appendix D). The priority gaps within the above set include non-stand-alone offices and
other retail buildings, as this study notes there is a large floor area of these building
types in Australia (see Chapters 5 and 7 respectively), and laboratories and data centres
due to their high energy intensity.

Second, we note (for example in Chapter 7 – Retail, but also in Chapter 10 – Tertiary
Education) that a major cause of apparent year on year variation in average energy
intensities within a building type is that the data sets that notionally represent a single
building ‘type’ (“retail”, or even “shopping centres”, and “universities”) in fact cover a
wide variety of functionally distinct sub-types, often with widely differing energy
intensities.

For example, we note in Chapter 10 that universities (and vocational education and
training campuses) are best thought of as ‘precincts’ which contain many functionally
distinct buildings. The energy intensity of a lecture theatre may be quite low, while the
nuclear physics laboratory next door may have an energy intensity two orders of
magnitude higher. As a further example, in Chapter 9 – Retail we point out that
‘shopping centre – tenancies’ similarly include very energy intensive fast food outlets,
alongside quite low energy intensity office spaces and doctor’s consulting rooms.
Relatedly, even within a single sub-type – such as ‘laboratories’ (which are not
separately resolved in the NRBuild model at present) – this would include a wide range
of functional energy intensities and quite probably usage patterns. One university
laboratory may be used for a few hours per day, while another on the same campus may
be testing samples on a 24/7 operating cycle.

These examples serve to illustrate that a high degree of resolution of building function,
activity levels, energy intensity and energy end-use is necessary to a) model total
energy consumption ‘bottom up’, and b) to understand energy intensity or efficiency
trends for particular building types. The greater the resolution of these factors, the
higher the accuracy of the model.

4.3.1 Model Validation


As discussed in Appendix D, an important opportunity for ‘top-down’ validation of the
NRBuild model – despite inherent uncertainties in the process – is to compare model
outputs over the 1999 – 2011 period with actual energy consumption data, as reported in
Australian Energy Statistics (AES).26 However, the AES has recently been revised to

26
ABARES (2011b)

29
align energy consumption reporting with data from the National Greenhouse and Energy
Reporting (NGER) system, in place of ABARES’ Fuel and Electricity Survey. While this
change has been described as “…a major step forward in the development of energy
statistics in Australia”27, in the short term it has created a discontinuity in the statistical
time series for energy consumption. At the time of publication, AES data was only
available for the financial years 2009 and 2010. This limits the ability to compare both
absolute energy consumption values between NRBuild and AES over the historical time
period to 1999 but also trends over time (such as relative growth rates between
sectors). It is expected that future editions of AES will include historical revisions that
will progressively remove this discontinuity. Once this has occurred, the opportunity
should be taken to undertake a further model validation exercise.

4.3.2 Model Enhancements


Numerous enhancements to the existing NRBuild model and its underlying data sets
would improve its utility for analytical purposes. Some of these enhancements could be
achieved with limited effort, while others would be dependent upon additional data
capture. Key examples include:

Climate Zones
The locational framework for this study was given as ‘states and territories’ and ‘capital
cities and regions’. However, for many policy analyses, knowledge of the distribution of
buildings and their energy consumption by climate zone is also important. The Building
Code of Australia, for example, recognises eight climate zones and may apply different
regulatory solutions in each. Building ratings tools often distinguish many more climate
zones.

Where possible, we have captured data on the post codes of the buildings comprised in
the nearly 16,000 data records utilised in this study. However, not all data records
include this information. Nevertheless, it would be possible to use this information to
develop a picture of the distribution of building energy consumption by climate zone.
We note, however, that no similar information currently exists with respect to the stock
of buildings by post code. Estimates have been made (elsewhere) of the distribution of
the stock of at least some building types by the eight climate zones in the Building Code
of Australia.

Cogeneration and Trigeneration


While this study aimed to compile data on the extent of cogeneration or trigeneration
with the building stock, in fact very little such data was able to be obtained. It is not
clear whether this represents the limited penetration of these technologies in the stock,
or limitations in data collection processes, or both. However, there is colloquial
evidence of increasing installation of these systems, and information regarding this
would be relevant for many policy purposes. For example, these systems change the
fuel mix used in buildings, and therefore, their greenhouse gas emissions, and also the
apparent demand for ‘purchased’ fuels. Lacking on information on the extent of co-
and tri-generation, data on fuel sales can be misleading indicator or final energy
services consumed.

On-site Renewable Energy Generation, and Green Power purchases


As with cogeneration, this study aimed to capture data on the extent of onsite
renewable energy generation in the building stock and the extent of consumption of
GreenPower. While some records contained such information, this was not sufficient to
construct a statistically significant picture for any building type. This information is
important for similar reasons to those noted above for cogeneration and trigeneration.
On-site renewable energy generation will affect the greenhouse emissions attributable
to individual buildings and sectors, while non-reporting of such generation may appear
in statistical data as a reduction in energy consumption or intensity, rather than an
increase in energy generation and consumption. This difference may be critical for

27
ibid, p. 1.

30
particular policy questions, and the importance of this issue is only likely to growth
through time.

Time of Use Information, including peak load


There is increasing awareness of the contribution of rising network costs to the overall
level of electricity prices in particular in Australia. These costs in turn reflect rising
peak as well as average demand for networked energy over time. It is therefore likely
to be increasingly important through time to be able to model accurately the
contribution of buildings to peak load, as well as the opportunities to reduce this
contribution through various policy initiatives. At present the NRBuild model captures
data on and models average energy consumption, rather than peak energy consumption.
Thus, in future data collection exercises, the opportunity to capture time of use and
load profile information should be investigated. We note that such information is
already available to key agencies within the National Energy Market, and that a data
collaboration exercise may lead to appropriate access to such information without any
new data collection.

4.4 Overarching Conclusions


This study and the NRBuild model make significant contributions to the understanding of
energy use and greenhouse gas emissions associated with commercial buildings in
Australia. It has compiled and analysed an unprecedented amount of data on a wide
range of buildings types across Australia.

At the same time, the study highlights the ongoing inadequacy of statistical information
in Australia relating to:
 The nature of building stock and its evolution through time
 The nature of energy use and, in particular, end use within buildings.

No one-off study or model build can fully compensate for adequate and ongoing
collection and analysis of statistically significant data on buildings and their
energy/greenhouse performance.

31
5. Offices
5.1 Introduction
This chapter presents key findings and underlying assumptions for offices, as modelled
in NRBuild. It considers base buildings and tenancies separately. The scope of offices
considered are ‘standalone’ offices, which are buildings whose primary function is as an
office, with an area greater than 1000m2 NLA. Stock estimates for non-stand-alone
offices are also presented in this Chapter.

Total energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission estimates for offices are based
on the sum of base building and tenancy energy consumption. As is discussed further
below, the data records that were compiled for ‘whole buildings’ show a trend which
appears inconsistent with that of base and tenancies. As the whole building data was
less statistically significant, it was not relied upon for the NRBuild model. Please refer
to Appendix E for more details.

5.2 Stock Estimates - Offices


The stock of office space in Australia has been estimated by BIS Shrapnel, drawing on a
wide range of data sources and estimation techniques, as described in Appendix C. The
office classification is segmented into ‘standalone’ offices and ‘non-standalone’ offices.
Standalone offices are defined as buildings whose predominant purpose is as an office
and have a NLA of greater than 1,000m2. BIS Shrapnel has high quality data on
standalone office space for Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide and the ACT.
Standalone office space in other geographic regions is calculated based on a
combination of Property Council of Australia data, estimates of the office workforce,
ABS information on building completions, partial information for some population
centres (for example, local council sourced information), and limited mapping surveys.

‘Non-standalone’ office space is calculated by firstly calculating the office workforce


not employed in standalone offices or in the education, health, retail, and tourist
accommodation sectors (most office space for these sectors being captured in other
classifications such as schools) and then assuming 20m 2 office space per office worker
with an allowance for vacancies. Note that for areas outside of Sydney, Melbourne,
Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide and the ACT there is significant uncertainty regarding the
proportion of office space accounted for by non standalone offices.

Office space forecasts reflect detailed BIS Shrapnel forecasts for ‘standalone’ office
space in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide and the ACT and forecasts for
growth in the office workforce.

5.2.1 Stand-alone Offices


In the base year of 2009, standalone offices are estimated to have comprised some 36.6
million square metres net lettable area across Australia as a whole (see
Table 5.1 and also Figure 5.1). Historically, the stock grew at an average rate of 2.2%
per year between 1999 and 2011, and it is projected to continue to grow to 2020 around
2% per year. While New South Wales comprises the largest share of the office stock by
state, this share is expected to fall slightly over the 2009 to 2020 period, from 38.6% to
37.8%. Over the same period, while the shares of Queensland and Western Australia are
expected to increase somewhat, from 14.3% to 15.2% (QLD) and from 8.4% to 9.2% (WA).

32
Table 5.1 - Stand-Alone Office Stock by State and Region, 1999 to 2020 (‘000 m2 NLA)

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Sydney 9,273 9,687 9,821 9,945 10,034 10,297 10,546 10,754 10,964 11,287 11,425 11,719 11,820 11,913 11,972 11,998 12,222 12,497 12,960 13,547 13,876 13,993

Other NSW 2,251 2,381 2,521 2,521 2,528 2,564 2,573 2,585 2,615 2,650 2,725 2,736 2,738 2,784 2,809 2,879 2,926 2,982 3,085 3,188 3,215 3,254

Melbourne 6,295 6,218 6,311 6,353 6,449 6,717 6,938 7,273 7,428 7,615 7,898 8,178 8,256 8,384 8,483 8,680 8,985 9,389 9,678 9,747 9,751 9,762

Other
1,155 1,203 1,292 1,299 1,299 1,306 1,310 1,310 1,315 1,320 1,401 1,401 1,410 1,437 1,462 1,498 1,517 1,549 1,600 1,660 1,668 1,692
Victoria

Brisbane 2,579 2,612 2,671 2,737 2,752 2,816 2,860 2,908 2,987 3,129 3,454 3,647 3,674 3,774 3,849 3,951 4,032 4,098 4,214 4,254 4,444 4,562

Other
1,282 1,310 1,423 1,431 1,431 1,441 1,452 1,549 1,577 1,630 1,774 1,812 1,937 1,981 2,024 2,100 2,144 2,182 2,247 2,300 2,324 2,371
Queensland

Perth 2,306 2,302 2,299 2,312 2,329 2,392 2,405 2,396 2,409 2,442 2,598 2,712 2,765 2,943 2,966 2,992 3,077 3,275 3,451 3,571 3,611 3,603

Other WA 441 454 450 450 450 453 457 463 476 476 478 496 517 517 535 553 564 577 595 611 614 623

Adelaide 1,379 1,368 1,359 1,368 1,387 1,387 1,378 1,406 1,464 1,487 1,537 1,578 1,593 1,608 1,667 1,701 1,703 1,722 1,729 1,745 1,793 1,854

Other SA 260 278 278 278 278 278 278 278 281 281 297 300 300 300 300 307 311 316 325 334 340 343

Hobart 385 383 383 381 382 386 386 393 398 401 404 408 410 418 418 423 425 428 435 444 445 449

Other
254 283 293 293 293 293 293 293 293 295 302 302 302 302 302 306 308 311 316 322 323 326
Tasmania

ACT 1,452 1,448 1,438 1,481 1,504 1,550 1,576 1,607 1,729 1,937 2,013 2,197 2,234 2,246 2,317 2,302 2,314 2,349 2,367 2,347 2,396 2,471

Darwin 194 194 194 194 194 219 219 227 235 237 250 270 272 274 277 283 290 296 304 312 320 327

Other NT 79 78 80 80 80 80 80 85 85 85 88 88 88 89 90 92 94 96 98 101 104 106

29,586 30,200 30,814 31,122 31,392 32,179 32,751 33,526 35,271 36,645 37,844 38,316 38,970 39,471 40,064 40,911 42,067 43,403 44,480 45,223 45,736
Aust. 34,254
Source - BIS Shrapnel

33
Table 5.2 - Non-Stand-Alone Office Stock by State and Region, 1999 to 2020 (‘000m2 NLA)

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Sydney 2,703 2,828 2,923 3,080 3,275 3,427 3,508 3,608 3,682 3,807 3,875 3,984 4,062 4,100 4,165 4,136 4,102 4,155 4,187 4,253 4,593 4,864

Other NSW 1,583 1,582 1,860 1,860 1,540 1,856 1,540 1,560 1,587 1,634 1,664 1,709 1,747 1,775 1,815 1,846 1,889 1,944 1,986 2,027 2,057 2,080

Melbourne 4,065 4,161 4,255 4,338 4,527 4,632 4,665 4,779 4,925 5,050 5,140 5,290 5,336 5,379 5,477 5,551 5,487 5,342 5,322 5,585 5,989 6,407

Other
758 769 682 708 708 708 704 709 711 758 763 771 794 814 831 846 869 895 912 929 945 955
Victoria

Brisbane 1,792 1,812 1,856 1,905 1,977 2,048 2,134 2,178 2,263 2,309 2,353 2,377 2,424 2,471 2,547 2,609 2,685 2,750 2,726 2,760 2,748 2,874

Other
1,832 1,842 2,034 2,096 2,184 2,253 2,351 2,475 2,577 2,654 2,743 2,809 2,873 2,931 2,996 3,075 3,152 3,230 3,301 3,370 3,408 3,446
Queensland

Perth 1,593 1,612 1,630 1,674 1,713 1,757 1,798 1,874 1,961 2,024 2,069 2,118 2,131 2,108 2,169 2,199 2,258 2,326 2,383 2,443 2,480 2,517

Other WA 350 352 344 330 330 330 337 348 372 404 405 416 430 443 445 454 468 481 490 500 506 510

Adelaide 1,173 1,199 1,211 1,234 1,273 1,298 1,307 1,343 1,359 1,399 1,434 1,482 1,505 1,533 1,534 1,545 1,566 1,613 1,650 1,695 1,685 1,698

Other SA 240 237 239 250 259 274 291 302 315 321 326 329 333 333 333 333 336 344 352 359 363 368

Hobart 140 141 143 148 154 160 166 172 176 179 181 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 187 188

Other
108 103 102 108 112 111 115 118 127 136 145 149 155 155 155 155 154 154 153 151 153 154
Tasmania

ACT 407 411 411 416 417 417 417 424 434 431 437 437 437 404 425 463 439 457 480 480 498 559

Darwin 179 181 184 184 185 196 200 206 221 222 237 252 262 264 268 272 278 284 292 301 304 309

Other NT 17 28 27 27 28 30 32 33 38 42 47 50 53 53 54 55 56 57 59 61 61 62

16,939 17,258 17,903 18,358 18,684 19,497 19,564 20,129 20,749 21,373 21,820 22,359 22,726 22,949 23,399 23,725 23,925 24,216 24,478 25,099 25,977 26,988
Australia
Source - BIS Shrapnel

34
Figure 5.1 - Standalone Office Stock by State Historical and Projections, 1999 to 2020

50000
45000
40000
NT
35000
ACT
30000
('000's NLA)

Tasmania
25000
20000 SA

15000 WA

10000 Queensland

5000 Victoria

0 NSW
1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019
Year
.
Source - BIS Shrapnel

5.2.2 Non Standalone Offices


Non-standalone offices are office spaces within buildings whole primary purpose is
other than as an office – such as office areas within industrial buildings or even home
offices – or office buildings of less than 1,000 m2 NLA. In total, it is estimated that
there were some 21.8 million m2 NLA of such non-stand-office space in Australia in 2009
(see Table 5.2). The stock has grown from under 17 million m2 NLA in 1999 and is
projected to reach some 27 million m2 NLA by 2020 (see
Figure 5.2).

While an exploration of the characteristics of this non-stand-alone office stock was


beyond the scope of this study, the significant floor area suggests that this may a large
additional source of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. For example,
if the non-standalone office space had a similar energy intensity to the stand-alone
stock, this would add a further 21 PJ to office energy consumption in the base year.
However, further research would be required to capture data on the energy intensity of
the non-stand-alone stock to validate such a figure. We note that trends towards
home-based work, regional ‘hot-desk’ centres and more mobile office workers may
increase the importance of such research.

5.3 Energy Intensity - Standalone Offices


Energy and fuel intensities are calculated for each year, office sub-type (base building,
tenancies, whole buildings) and ownership type (private, government) drawing on more
than 4,300 data records relating to over 1,700 actual office buildings. Despite the
reasonable sample size overall, these records are distributed unevenly across financial
years (1999 to 2012), states and regions, ownership types and office sub- types.
Therefore the picture that emerges is less than complete, while trends through time
appear uneven. In the text below, national average energy intensities for all fuels are
referenced, as these are associated with the highest sample size and statistical
confidence. Other results are available from the NRBuild model, but generally with
decreasing confidence as we try to resolve smaller geographical units (individual states,
territories and regions within them) or partition the data by ownership type.

35
Figure 5.2 - Non-Standalone Office Stock by State, Historical and Projections, 1999 to 2020

30,000

25,000
NT
20,000
ACT
('000 m2 NLA)

Tasmania
15,000
SA
10,000 WA
Queensland
5,000
Victoria
0 NSW
1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019
Year
.
Source - BIS Shrapnel

Figure 5.3 shows all office energy intensities (all sub-types and time periods) plotted
against area. While the larger offices exhibit a reasonably symmetrical distribution of
values around the mean, the overall distribution shows a skewed ‘tail’ of smaller and
more energy intensive offices. Noting this, we compared simple and area-weighted
average energy intensities by building sub-type, and found that simple averages are
only modestly higher than area-weighted mean values, generally by less than 5%.
Office tenancies over all time periods showed a simple average energy intensity of 404
MJ/m2.a, for example, while the area-weighted average was 389 MJ/m2.a, some 3.7%
less. This is consistent with the distribution shown in Figure 5.3. For base buildings,
the simple average energy intensity (all periods) was 560 MJ/m 2.a compared with 532
MJ/m2.a as an area-weighted average a difference of 5.1%. More statistical analysis,
for offices and other building types, may be found in Appendix E.

Figure 5.3 - Total Energy Intensity versus Area, All Offices

100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
m2 NLA 50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
Energy Intensity (MJ/m2.a)
.
Source - pitt&sherry

36
For a more detailed examination of energy intensities, the data is broken down by office
sub-type, state and region, ownership type and financial year.

5.3.1 Office Tenancies


Figure 5.4 below shows the average annual energy intensity for office tenancies for the
years 2001-2011, including linear regressions for the period back to 1999 and forward to
2020. In the base year of 2009, the average energy intensity of office tenancies in
Australia is indicated to be around 385 MJ/m2.a. The results shown are based on area-
weighted average energy intensities for all regions in Australia, for each year in which
the sample size (n) was at least 95. On this basis, a trend was available for the years
2001 to 2011 informed by a total sample of 1,885 records totalling over 4 million m 2 of
office tenancies in Australia (all periods).

Despite this, it can be seen that the values for average annual energy intensity vary
considerably around the trend, although not by more than 50 MJ/m2.a in any year. This
results in a very low R2 value of 0.04, indicating a very weak trend. 28 Further data
capture would be required to establish trends with greater confidence. Despite this, we
draw a weak conclusion that, on average, the energy intensity of office tenancies in
Australia appears to have fallen modestly over the decade to 2011. The NRBuild model
assumes this weak downward trend continues through to 2020, as it is reinforced by
policy settings such as the Building Code of Australia and the Building Energy Efficiency
Disclosure Act.

Given the low confidence associated with national average energy intensity trends for
office tenancies, the model does not rely upon finer ‘resolution’ results (for example
comparing time series trends by ownership type, state or region), as progressively
smaller sample sizes are available to support such results. However, sections 5.6 and
5.7 below report some results from the office tenancy analysis that differentiate
average energy intensities by region or ownership type, where those results are
supported by a sample size of at least 50 data records. Note that the user of the
NRBuild model may specify their own ‘minimum n value’ and examine the results.

Figure 5.4 - Average Energy Intensity, Office Tenancies, Australia

Total n, all
450 periods:
400 1885
350
300
250
MJ/m2.a

200
n>=95
150
100
R² = 0.0379
50
0
2007
1999
2001
2003
2005

2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019

Year
.......
Source - pitt&sherry

28
‘R squared’ values vary between 0 and 1, with 1 indicating a perfect fit of data points to the trendline (all
points appear exactly on the line). Progressively lower values indicate a poorer ‘fit’ of the data points to the
trend and, as a result, lower confidence in the trendline itself.

37
5.3.2 Office Base Buildings
Figure 5.5 shows the average annual energy intensity for office base buildings for the
years 2004 to 2011, where a minimum the sample size (n) of 50 records was available for
each year, and total sample of 1,267 records. In the base year of 2009, the average
energy intensity of office base buildings was around 530 MJ/m 2.a. As for office
tenancies, however, the fit of data to trend is quite poor, although again the variability
does not exceed around 60 MJ/m2.a. We recommend further data capture to strengthen
confidence in this trend.

In a similar manner to office tenancies, however, we draw the weak conclusion that
base building energy intensity in offices has tended to fall modestly through time.

Figure 5.5 - Average Energy Intensity, Office Base Buildings, Australia

700

600

500
R² = 0.1434
400
MJ/m2.a

300
n>50
200 Linear (n>50)
100

0
1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

Year

Source - pitt&sherry

5.3.3 Office Whole Buildings


Some 833 data records were compiled relating to ‘whole’ office buildings. While
definitions can vary, many of the data records are derived from NABERS ratings, and
these are defined to cover energy consumption related to the tenanted areas of an
office building (net lettable area) together with the central services and common areas,
or ‘tenancy + base buildings’. The smaller total sample size available for whole
buildings, as compared to tenancies and base buildings meant that estimates for whole
building energy intensity using these records were limited to a minimum sample of 30
per year. This data produced a trend which appears inconsistent with the tenancy and
base buildings trends described above (see
Figure 5.6). Please refer to Appendix E for an analysis of this discrepancy, which
appears to be related to underlying data quality.

38
Figure 5.6 - Whole Office Building Energy Intensity, Australia, cf Base Building + Tenancy
Energy Intensity (MJ/m2.a)

1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
R² = 0.7225
MJ/m2.a

800 n>=30
600 Base + Tenancy Best Fit
400 Linear (n>=30)
200
0

2015
1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2017

2019
Year
Source - pitt&sherry

While the fit of data to the trend for whole buildings (shown in blue) is higher than for
the separate trends for tenancies and base buildings, discussed above, the trend shows a
marked rise through time (2004 to 2011) which does not agree with the data for
tenancies and base buildings. As the latter is based on a greater sample size (3,152
records, as compared to 833), the model relies on the combined tenancy plus base
building data to establish energy intensity trends. The ‘best fit’ trend for the combined
tenancy and base building energy intensity trend is shown in
Figure 5.6 as the curve in brown. As discussed in Appendix E, it is likely that data errors
or bias in the pre-2007 data are primarily responsible for the inconsistent trend for
office whole building energy intensity. On this basis, we can conclude that the energy
intensity of whole offices has tended to decline mostly from 1999 to 2011, with an
average total energy intensity value in the 2009 base year of some 917MJ/ m2.a as
compared to just under 1,000 MJ/m2 in 1999. However, given the low ‘r squared’ values
for tenancies and base buildings, we recommend that further data capture and analysis
be undertaken to confirm these trends (see Section 7.9).

Figure 5.7 shows that when OSCAR data is removed from the data set, the trend lines for
Whole Buildings and Base + Tenancies are expected very similar.

39
Figure 5.7 - Whole Office Building Energy Intensity, Australia, cf Base Building + Tenancy
Energy Intensity without OSCAR data

1,200

1,000
R² = 0.0053

800
MJ/m2

600
R² = 0.6617
400

200

0
1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012
OSCAR Others (excl OSCAR)
Base Building + Tenancy Best Fit Linear (OSCAR)
Linear (Others (excl OSCAR))
..Source - Exergy Australia Pty Ltd

5.4 Total Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions -


Standalone Offices
Greenhouse gas emissions associated with standalone office energy use in 2009 are
estimated at 8.7 Mt CO2-e, and are projected to rise around 9.8 Mt CO2-e in 2020. As
noted in Chapter 6, these emission projections to 2020 have been calculated using the
assumption that from 2010, the greenhouse gas intensity of electricity in each state and
territory remains unchanged over the decade. This may overstate emissions through the
decade if the greenhouse intensity of electricity supply falls, as forecast by Treasury
(2011), for example. Treasury projections are not broken down by state, however, and
the starting point greenhouse intensity of electricity supply varies widely by State (see
Section 3.6). However, the NRBuild model allows users to specify their own values for
these variables.

Table 5.3 shows that total energy consumption in standalone offices in the base year of
2009 is estimated at some 33.6 PJ, a 14% increase over the 1999 value of 29.4 PJ. This
is projected to increase steadily to just over 38 PJ in 2020 under current trends.
Tenancies accounted for around 42% of the energy consumption in 2009, while base
buildings accounted for the balance of 58%.

Greenhouse gas emissions associated with standalone office energy use in 2009 are
estimated at 8.7 Mt CO2-e, and are projected to rise to around 9.8 Mt CO2-e in 2020. As
noted in Chapter 6, these emissions projections to 2020 have been calculated using the
assumption that from 2010, the greenhouse gas intensity of electricity in each state and
territory remains unchanged over the decade. This may overstate emissions through the
decade if the greenhouse intensity of electricity supply falls, as forecast by Treasury
(2011), for example. Treasury projections are not broken down by state, however, and
the starting point greenhouse intensity of electricity supply varies widely by State (see
Section 3.6). However, the NRBuild model allows users to specify their own values for
these variables.

40
Table 5.3 - Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Standalone Offices by Sub-Type, 1999-
2020

Standalone Offices: Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions:


Australia: 1999-2020
Standalone Offices Standalone Offices Standalone Offices (Base
(Total) (Tenancies) Buildings)
Total Total
GHG GHG Total GHG
Energy Energy
Emissions Emissions Energy Use Emissions
Use Use
Financial
PJ Mt CO2-e PJ Mt CO2-e PJ Mt CO2-e
Year:
1999 29.4 7.8 11.8 3.4 17.6 4.4
2000 29.8 7.9 12.0 3.5 17.7 4.4
2001 30.2 8.0 12.2 3.5 17.9 4.5
2002 30.2 8.0 12.3 3.6 17.9 4.5
2003 30.2 8.0 12.4 3.6 17.9 4.5
2004 30.7 8.2 12.6 3.7 18.1 4.5
2005 31.0 8.1 12.8 3.6 18.2 4.5
2006 31.5 8.2 13.1 3.7 18.5 4.5
2007 31.9 8.3 13.3 3.8 18.7 4.6
2008 32.6 8.4 13.6 3.8 19.0 4.6
2009 33.6 8.7 14.1 4.0 19.5 4.7
2010 34.4 8.8 14.5 4.0 19.9 4.8
2011 34.6 8.9 14.6 4.1 19.9 4.8
2012 34.8 9.0 14.8 4.1 20.0 4.8
2013 35.0 9.0 14.9 4.2 20.0 4.8
2014 35.2 9.1 15.1 4.2 20.1 4.9
2015 35.6 9.2 15.4 4.3 20.3 4.9
2016 36.3 9.4 15.7 4.4 20.6 5.0
2017 37.1 9.6 16.2 4.5 21.0 5.1
2018 37.7 9.7 16.5 4.6 21.2 5.1
2019 38.0 9.8 16.7 4.7 21.3 5.1
2020 38.1 9.8 16.8 4.7 21.3 5.1
Source - pitt&sherry

Energy Consumption by Fuel - Offices


Table 5.3 indicates estimated energy consumption by fuel in standalone offices for the
period 1999 to 2020. In 2009, and indeed in other periods, fuel use is dominated by
electricity, which accounts for 90% of total energy consumption. Natural gas accounts
for the majority of the balance, with minor use of diesel (which is likely to be primarily
for standby power generation) and LPG.

The fuel mix varies by office sub-type. Office tenancies, on average, use close to 100%
electricity (for ‘tenant light and power’), with around only 0.3% natural gas and 0.1%
LPG. These values represent averages over the 1999 – 2012 period, as no significant
time series information was available. In base buildings, on the other hand, electricity’s
share of total energy consumption was, on average, around 83% in 2009, with natural
gas around 16%, with minor use of diesel and LPG. These fuel mix shares appear to have
remained broadly constant over the 1999 – 2012 period.

41
Table 5.4 - Standalone Offices, Whole Buildings, Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1999 to 2020,
Australia

Offices Diesel
Natural GHG
(Base Electricity LPG Use /Oil Total Energy
Gas Use Emissions
Buildings + Use (PJ) (PJ) Use Use (PJ)
(PJ) (Mt CO2-e)
Tenancies): (PJ)
1999 26.4 3.0 0.02 0.07 7.8 29.4
2000 26.7 3.0 0.02 0.07 7.9 29.8
2001 27.0 3.0 0.02 0.07 8.0 30.2
2002 27.1 3.0 0.02 0.07 8.0 30.2
2003 27.1 3.0 0.02 0.07 8.0 30.2
2004 27.6 3.0 0.02 0.08 8.2 30.7
2005 27.9 3.1 0.02 0.08 8.1 31.0
2006 28.3 3.1 0.03 0.08 8.2 31.5
2007 28.7 3.1 0.03 0.08 8.3 31.9
2008 29.3 3.2 0.03 0.08 8.4 32.6
2009 30.2 3.3 0.03 0.08 8.7 33.6
2010 31.0 3.3 0.03 0.08 8.8 34.4
2011 31.1 3.4 0.03 0.08 8.9 34.6
2012 31.4 3.4 0.03 0.08 9.0 34.8
2013 31.5 3.4 0.03 0.08 9.0 35.0
2014 31.7 3.4 0.03 0.08 9.1 35.2
2015 32.1 3.4 0.03 0.08 9.2 35.6
2016 32.7 3.5 0.03 0.09 9.4 36.3
2017 33.5 3.5 0.03 0.09 9.6 37.1
2018 34.0 3.6 0.03 0.09 9.7 37.7
2019 34.3 3.6 0.03 0.09 9.8 38.0
2020 34.4 3.6 0.03 0.09 9.8 38.1
Source - pitt&sherry
Note: No significant data was available on the consumption of Green Power or on-site
renewables.

5.5 Energy End Use - Offices


The analysis of energy end use in offices is restricted to either electricity or natural gas,
or both, as the data sets included no information on the end use of either diesel or LPG.
Second, given a limited data sample, it was not possible to construct significant time
series trends for energy end use, and therefore, the data presented represent averages
over the 1999 – 2012 period. Separate end use estimates are reported for tenancies and
base buildings, and finally for all office buildings in the data set that include end use
breakdowns.

42
Office End Use - Tenancies
Figure 5.8 shows the average electricity end-use shares for office tenancies over all
periods captured in the data set (1999 - 2012), which comprises a total sample of 342
data points. As noted above, electricity accounts for close to 100% of office tenancy
energy use on average. Lighting and office equipment dominate the end-use shares,
accounting for 37% and 31% respectively on average. Supplementary heating,
ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) accounts for a significant 18% of energy use on
average, noting that this is addition to HVAC services provided by the base building
plant. Domestic hot water makes up 3% of the total office tenancy energy use on
average.

Figure 5.8 - Office Tenancies, Electricity End Use Shares, 1999 – 2012
.

11%
18%
3%

HVAC

Lighting

Total Equipment

31% Domestic hot


water
37%

.
Source - pitt&sherry

Office End Use - Base Buildings


Turning to base buildings, separate end use shares are calculated for electricity and
natural gas use. Figure 5.9 shows the average electricity end-use shares for base
buildings over the 1999 – 2012 period, drawing on a sample of 191 data points. For base
buildings, HVAC dominates the total electricity use (67%), followed by lighting at 15%
and equipment at 11%.

43
Figure 5.9 - Office Base Buildings, Electricity End Use Shares, 1999 – 2012

2% 4%
11%

HVAC

Lighting
15%
Total Equipment

Domestic hot water


67%
Other electrical
process

Source - pitt&sherry

With respect to natural gas, a smaller sample of 62 end use data points indicate that
space heating is the dominant end use of natural gas in office base buildings, with an
average end use share of almost half of gas use (49%), as shown in Figure 5.10.
Domestic hot water accounts for around 8% of gas use, while a significant residual of
‘other gas use’ is not attributed to particular end uses in the data available to this
study.

Figure 5.10 - Office Base Buildings, Natural Gas End Use Shares, 1999 - 2012

39%
Space Heating
Domestic Hot Water
49%
Kitchen/ catering
Other gas use

4%
8%
.
Source - pitt&sherry

44
Office End Use – All Buildings
Figures 5.11 and 5.12 show the end use shares for electricity and natural gas
respectively for all office building types taken together over the 1999 – 2012 period. A
total sample of 1150 data points informs the electricity end use breakdown, while a
much smaller sample of 79 points was available for natural gas end use. Figure 5.11
indicates that electricity, on average, is used for HVAC (43%), lighting (26%) and
equipment (20%), with domestic hot water and other electrical processes making up the
balance.

Figure 5.11 - Offices (All), Electricity End Use Shares, 1999 - 2012

10%
2%

HVAC
20% 43% Lighting
Total Equipment
Domestic hot water
Other electrical process

26%
.
Source - pitt&sherry

Figure 5.12 indicates that, on average all offices, space heating accounts for 56% of
total gas consumption, with minor shares for domestic hot water (9%) and
kitchen/catering (3%), with a substantial unallocated residual of 33%.

Figure 5.12 - Offices (All), Natural Gas End Use Shares, 1999 - 2012

33%

Space Heating
Domestic Hot Water
Kitchen/ catering
56%
Other gas use

3%

9%

.
Source - pitt&sherry

45
5.6 State and Territory Estimates - Standalone Offices
State and territory estimates for energy consumption by fuel, and greenhouse gas
emissions, are calculated for each office sub-type, region and year. Given the large
amount of data, summary tables published in this Report below, while the full data is
contained in the NRBuild model.

The ‘default’ estimates are calculated by applying the state, territory and regional time
series for the office stock to the national average energy intensity time series and fuel
mix estimates (which may be time series or averages, depending upon data availability),
for each office sub-type. These values are reported below. Note that the NRBuild
model also calculates total energy and individual fuel intensities for each state,
territory, region and time period.

Total energy consumption by state and territory and by office type, for 1999, 2009 and
2020, are set out in Tables 5.5 to 5.7 below. For further details, including breakdown
by fuel, intervening years and greenhouse gas emissions, please refer to the NRBuild
model.

Table 5.5 - Standalone Office Tenancy Energy Consumption by State and Territory

(PJ) 1999 2009 2020


NSW 4.6 5.4 6.3
VIC 3.0 3.6 4.2
QLD 1.5 2.0 2.6
WA 1.1 1.2 1.6
SA 0.7 0.7 0.8
TAS 0.3 0.3 0.3
ACT 0.6 0.8 0.9
NT 0.1 0.1 0.2
Total: 11.8 14.1 16.8
Source - pitt&sherry

Table 5.6 - Standalone Office Base Building Energy Consumption by State and Territory

(PJ) 1999 2009 2020


NSW 6.8 7.5 8.0
VIC 4.4 4.9 5.3
QLD 2.3 2.8 3.2
WA 1.6 1.6 2.0
SA 1.0 1.0 1.0
TAS 0.4 0.4 0.4
ACT 0.9 1.1 1.1
NT 0.2 0.2 0.2
Total: 17.6 19.5 21.3
Source - pitt&sherry

46
Table 5.7 - Standalone Office Whole Buildings Energy Consumption by State and Territory

(PJ) 1999 2009 2020


NSW 11.5 13.0 14.4
VIC 7.4 8.5 9.5
QLD 3.8 4.8 5.8
WA 2.7 2.8 3.5
SA 1.6 1.7 1.8
TAS 0.6 0.6 0.6
ACT 1.4 1.8 2.1
NT 0.3 0.3 0.4
Total: 29.4 33.6 38.1
Source - pitt&sherry

5.6.1 State, Territory and Regional Energy Intensity Calculation - Offices


It was noted above that the NRBuild model also calculates total energy and individual
fuel intensities for each state, territory, region and time period, subject to data
availability. However, the overall sample size (for all the data sets) is generally too
small to allow meaningful regression analyses for the evolution of energy intensity (or
fuel mix) at the level of each state, territory or region. Indeed, for some combinations
of building type and state/territory/region, there are no data records at all.

However, where sufficient data is available, we report energy intensities by


state/territory, as an average over the 1999 – 2012 time period, along with the
underlying sample size. These may provide useful comparisons, but care should be
exercised in their interpretation due to limited statistical significance. These results
are summarised in Tables 5.8 to 5.10 below for privately owned offices. Data for
government-owned offices is shown in Section 5.7 below. Where no values are shown,
this indicates that either no data was available for that state, territory or region, or
otherwise the data sample that fell below the minimum noted.

Note that the NRBuild model allows the user to test their preferred values for energy
intensity over time (after the base year of 2009). Values relevant to a particular state,
territory or region could inserted in the model, for any building type or sub-type, and
the modelled total energy and greenhouse calculations would be valid for that state,
territory or region only. Modelled outputs for other states/regions would not, however,
be valid. Note also that, with respect to the tables below, the model user may specify
their own minimum ‘n’ values, as alternatives to those shown.

47
Table 5.8 - Privately Owned Standalone Office Tenancies, Average Energy Intensity by State,
Territory and Region (n > 50/year), 1999 – 2012

Average
State/ Energy Total
Region
Territory Intensity Sample
(MJ/m2.a)
NSW Capital City 451 80
VIC Capital city 424 64
SA Capital city 242 79
TAS Capital city 438 72
TAS Regional 685 66
ACT Capital city 426 149
Aust. Capital city 386 457
Aust. Regional 580 108
Aust. All 412 565
Source - pitt&sherry

Table 5.9 - Privately Owned Standalone Office Base Buildings, Average Energy Intensity by
State, Territory and Region (n > 50/year), 1999 – 2012

Average
Energy Total
State Region
Intensity Sample
(MJ/m2.a)
NSW Capital City 546 534
VIC Capital city 534 216
QLD Capital city 569 134
WA Capital city 429 70
ACT Capital city 536 152
Aust. Capital city 537 1,158
Aust. Regional 616 59
Aust. All 538 1,217
Source - pitt&sherry

Table 5.10 - Privately Owned Standalone Office Whole Buildings, Average Energy Intensity by
State, Territory and Region (n > 30/year), 1999 – 2012

Average
Energy Total
State Region
Intensity Sample
(MJ/m2.a)

NSW Capital City 1,290 105


NSW Regional 846 62
VIC Capital city 1,054 53
Aust. Capital city 1,113 262
Aust. Regional 942 151
Aust. All 1,085 413
Source - pitt&sherry

48
5.7 Government Owned Standalone Offices
This section reports the modelled results for average energy intensities of the
government-owned segment of the offices data set, by building type. As above, the
data shown is an average of the 1999 to 2012 period due to insufficient time series
information, and values are only shown where the sample size they are based on
exceeds the minimum threshold specified. These results are then compared with the
results for the privately-owned office stock, as reported above.

Note that it was not possible to construct estimates of total energy consumption or
greenhouse gas emissions within the government-owned portion of the stock, not
because of insufficient data on average energy intensities, but rather due to a lack of
the data on the physical extent of the government-owned office stock. This data does
not appear to be reported in any consolidated format, and although BIS Shrapnel was
able to estimate the stock for certain states and certain years, no overall stock model
could be constructed. Also, we would expect the government-owned portion of the
office stock to decline markedly since 1999, at least in some states and territories, due
to extensive sale and lease-back initiatives by all governments. We note, in Section 6.9
below, the uncertainty about the extent of the government-owned office stock is one
data hurdle that should be able to be cleared with further collaboration between the
Commonwealth and states and territories.

Tables 5.11 and 5.12 below show the average energy intensities of the government-
owned office buildings (tenancies and whole buildings respectively) in the data set, by
state, territory and region, over the period 1999 – 2012, along with the sample sizes
underpinning these observations. As above, where no values are shown, this indicates
that either no data was available for that state, territory or region, or otherwise the
data sample that fell below the minimum noted. Note that no significant data was
available on the energy intensity of government owned office base buildings.

Table 5.11 - Government Owned Standalone Office Tenancies, Average Energy Intensity by
State, Territory and Region (n > 50/year), 1999 – 2012

Average
Energy Total
State Region
Intensity Sample
(MJ/m2.a)
SA Capital city 374 668
SA Regional 310 200
ACT Capital city 392 84
NT Capital city 333 207
NT Regional 323 87
Aust. Capital city 381 988
Aust. Regional 329 332
Aust. All 377 1,320
Source - pitt&sherry

49
Table 5.12 - Government Owned Standalone Office Whole Buildings, Average Energy Intensity
by State, Territory and Region (n > 30/year), 1999 – 2012

Average
State/ Energy Total
Region
Territory Intensity Sample
(MJ/m2.a)

Capital
SA 469 118
city
SA Regional 332 60
Capital
NT 829 64
city
Capital
Aust. 648 271
city
Aust. Regional 481 149
Aust. All 614 420
Source - pitt&sherry

The national average energy intensity for government owned office tenancies for capital
cities and regions over the 1999 – 2012 period is 381 MJ/m2.a and 329 MJ/m2.a
respectively. The overall average for all regions is 377 MJ/m2.a. Tasmanian office
tenancies are the most energy intensive in Australia, for both capital cities and regions,
with their respective energy intensity exceeding the national average by 39% and 53%.
The most likely explanation is that Tasmania is a cooler climate, and its office stock is
comparatively old, increasing the heating requirement. For capital cities in states and
territories reported, office tenancies in the NT have the lowest energy intensity (333
MJ/m2.a). For regions in states and territories reported, office tenancies in SA have the
lowest energy intensity (310 MJ/m2.a).

Table 5.8 showed that the national average energy intensity of privately owned office
tenancies for capital cities and regions, over the period 1999 – 2012, is 386 MJ/m2.a and
580 MJ/m2.a respectively. The overall national average energy intensity for the
privately owned tenancies is 412 MJ/m2.a. While the average energy intensity of
government owned office tenancies in capital cities is only marginally lower than
privately owned office tenancies (381 MJ/m2.a versus 386 MJ/m2), the energy intensity
of regional government owned office tenancies is significantly lower than it is for
equivalent privately owned office tenancies (329 MJ/m 2.a versus 580 MJ/m2.a).
However, given the relatively small sample sizes for some states/territories, and the
difference in sample sizes between government and privately owned stock, it could not
be concluded definitively that government owned offices are less energy intensive than
privately owned offices.

For capital city privately owned office tenancies, SA has the lowest the average energy
intensity (242 MJ/m2.a) of all capital cities over the 1999 – 2012 period, which is about
37% lower than the national capital city average. NSW capital city offices have the
highest average energy intensity of 451 MJ/m2.a. For regional privately owned office
tenancies, NT appears to have the lowest average energy intensity, although this result
is based on a very small sample.

As for government owned tenancies, Tasmania has the highest average energy intensity
for regional office tenancies, of 685 MJ/m 2.a. Again, this may reflect the office stock’s
age, combined with the cool climate. Tasmania has a sample size for regional offices
which is much higher than other states and territories, and we note that this may be
exercising some upward pressure on the area-weighted national average value reported.

50
Note that the statistical confidence in the difference in energy intensities between
locations, as well as the influence of climate on energy intensities, is analysed and
discussed in Appendix E.

5.8 Conclusions - Offices


Overall, this study has shown that despite a relatively large sample of data on the actual
energy performance of office buildings in Australia – totalling more than 4,300 data
records relating to over 1,700 individual office buildings – this sample has proved
insufficient to produce a robust depiction at the level of resolution sought (that is, by
building sub-type, ownership type, year, state and territory, and regional/capital city
split).

In particular:
 Modelling the energy consumption of the government-owned office stock would
require data from the states and territories on the physical extent of the stock and
its evolution through time, as well as additional data on the energy performance of
government-owned office base buildings
 This study has not captured data that would enable the energy intensity of the non-
stand-alone office stock to be modeled. Given the large estimated stock of non-
stand-alone offices, this represents a significant gap in the energy coverage of the
NRBuild model, perhaps in the order of 26 PJ
 The low ‘R2 values for office tenancy and base building national average energy
intensity trends indicate inadequate sample sizes for these building sub-types
 To fully populate energy intensity values by fuel for each state, territory, region,
year and ownership type with statistical would require significant additional,
targeted data collection focused on the gaps noted in this chapter (and summarised
below).

Key energy intensity data gaps are highlighted by the total sample sizes currently
available to the NRBuild model, as set out in Tables 5.13 (government offices) and 5.14
(private offices) below, by office type. The distribution of existing data records is very
uneven by state and region. Adequate coverage of 13 historical time periods should also
be considered, as discussed in detail in Appendix E.

Table 5.13 - Sample Size Summary, Government-Owned Offices by State and Region, All
Periods

State Region Tenancies Base Buildings Whole Buildings

NSW Capital city 0 0 6


NSW Regional 18 0 1
VIC Capital city 1 0 5
VIC Regional 1 0 0
QLD Capital city 0 0 43
QLD Regional 0 0 43
WA Capital city 0 0 7
WA Regional 0 0 0
SA Capital city 668 1 118
SA Regional 200 0 60
TAS Capital city 28 0 6
TAS Regional 26 0 3
ACT Capital city 84 41 22
NT Capital city 207 1 64

51
NT Regional 87 7 42
Totals 1320 50 420
Source - pitt&sherry
Table 5.14 - Sample Size Summary, Privately-Owned Offices by State and Region, All Periods

State Region Tenancies Base Buildings Whole Buildings

NSW Capital city 80 534 105


NSW Regional 12 12 62
VIC Capital city 64 216 53
VIC Regional 3 18 23
QLD Capital city 7 134 27
QLD Regional 16 16 24
WA Capital city 2 70 11
WA Regional 1 8 21
SA Capital city 79 35 34
SA Regional 4 0 4
TAS Capital city 72 3 2
TAS Regional 66 1 16
ACT Capital city 149 152 26
NT Capital city 4 14 4
NT Regional 6 4 1
Totals 565 1217 413
Source - pitt&sherry

52
6. Hotels
6.1 Introduction
This chapter presents key findings and underlying assumptions for hotels/motels, as
modelled in NRBuild. The scope includes hotels and motels with at least 5 rooms but
excludes serviced apartments. It also excludes hotels which are part of casinos, but
where the hotel energy could not be separated from the casino building’s total energy.
For the hotel/motel stock, in addition to there being a limited time series of energy
data, the sample size of hotels with energy data was relatively small.

6.2 Stock Estimates - Hotels


The stock of hotel/motel space in Australia has been estimated by BIS Shrapnel, drawing
on a wide range of data sources and estimation techniques, as summarised in Chapter 4,
with further detail in Appendix C.

Hotel/motel floor space is calculated based on the number of hotel/motel rooms. The
rooms data is sourced from the ABS (ABS Cat 8635.0), but the geographic segmentation
is limited by the fact that several fields are not published at a detailed level for hotel
star ratings because of confidentiality issues. The measure of accommodation floor
space is intended not just to cover the actual rooms but all areas associated with
servicing those rooms, including related office space, conference facilities, and dining
facilities.

The following ratios were applied to room numbers to estimate total floor space of
hotels/motels:
 1-2 star hotel/motel rooms, 35m2 per room
 3 star hotel/motel rooms, 40m2 per room
 4 star hotel/motel rooms, 70m2 per room
 5 star hotel/motel, 85m2 per room.

In the base year of 2009, hotels/motels are estimated to have comprised some 10.7
million m2 net lettable area across Australia as a whole (see Table 6.1). Historically, the
stock grew at an average rate of 1.1% per year between 1999 and 2011, and it is
projected to continue to grow to 2020 at around 1.6% per year. New South Wales
comprises the largest share of the hotel/motel stock by state, however, that share is
expected to fall slightly from 38.6% to 37.7% over the 2009 to 2020 period. As for
offices over the same period, the shares of Queensland and Western Australia are
expected to increase, from 14.2% to 15.2% (QLD) and from 8.4% to 9.3% (WA).

6.3 Energy Intensity - Hotels


Energy and fuel intensities are calculated for each year drawing on 208 data records
relating to 195 actual hotels. The sample size is reasonably small, and records are
distributed unevenly across financial years (1999 to 2012), and states and regions. For
example, there are data records for the year 2000, but none between 2000 and 2005,
while about 50% of the total data records are for the years 2010 and 2011.

53
Table 6.1 - Hotel Stock by State and Region, 1999 to 2020 (‘000 m2 NLA)

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Sydney 1,557 1,680 1,796 1,710 1,634 1,649 1,702 1,731 1,737 1,757 1,752 1,756 1,744 1,757 1,776 1,807 1,843 1,861 1,875 1,890 1,904 1,919

Other NSW 1,523 1,596 1,601 1,624 1,750 1,766 1,797 1,797 1,789 1,825 1,820 1,826 1,820 1,834 1,854 1,885 1,923 1,942 1,957 1,972 1,987 2,002

Melbourne 865 896 959 964 1,056 1,085 1,085 1,090 1,086 1,082 1,126 1,192 1,192 1,222 1,252 1,284 1,316 1,349 1,382 1,417 1,452 1,489

Other
822 848 852 861 875 900 908 882 886 870 880 882 883 905 928 951 975 999 1,024 1,049 1,076 1,103
Victoria

Brisbane 494 491 491 482 494 482 501 501 497 510 519 527 492 502 512 522 532 543 554 565 576 588

Other
2,118 2,076 2,135 2,064 2,101 2,094 2,087 2,049 2,102 2,101 2,106 2,077 2,011 2,051 2,092 2,134 2,176 2,220 2,264 2,310 2,356 2,403
Queensland

Perth 442 468 472 468 475 499 483 502 506 505 510 512 520 528 536 544 552 561 569 578 586 595

Other WA 390 423 408 406 455 430 457 431 449 448 453 450 455 462 469 476 483 491 498 505 513 521

Adelaide 307 304 306 339 364 364 367 341 339 343 355 361 388 393 397 402 407 412 417 422 427 432

Other SA 250 257 257 260 277 283 271 280 272 274 278 276 274 277 281 284 287 291 294 298 301 305

Hobart 107 105 104 102 112 119 121 120 120 121 124 128 130 131 133 135 136 138 139 141 143 145

Other
172 171 171 168 184 191 201 188 191 196 196 200 200 203 205 207 210 212 215 218 220 223
Tasmania

ACT 218 218 218 218 219 222 213 221 221 229 235 235 223 225 227 230 232 234 237 239 241 244

Darwin 107 103 104 106 114 109 113 119 107 109 148 149 143 145 147 150 152 154 156 159 161 164

Other NT 175 189 189 192 194 188 194 187 198 195 190 190 188 191 194 197 200 203 206 209 212 215

Aust. Total 9,547 9,825 10,065 9,964 10,305 10,381 10,500 10,438 10,499 10,565 10,692 10,761 10,662 10,826 11,003 11,206 11,424 11,608 11,787 11,970 12,156 12,345

Source - BIS Shrapnel

54
Figure 6.1 shows the average annual energy intensity for hotels for the years 2005 to
2011. The results are based on energy data for years where the sample size (n) of
buildings >=8. Nonetheless, the trend line of the plot shows that the energy intensity of
hotels has increased over the period in question, from 1,335 MJ/m 2.a in 2005 to 1,462
MJ/m2.a in 2011. However, the R2 value is very low indicating that the correlation
between energy intensity and years is very weak. This means that energy intensity
trends cannot be predicted with any confidence. Because of the small sample size, we
recommend that further data capture and analysis be undertaken to confirm this trend.
Other results are available from the NRBuild model, but with decreasing confidence as
we try to resolve smaller geographical units (individual states, territories and regions
within them) or partition the data by ownership type.

Figure 6.1 - Hotel Energy Intensity, Australia (MJ/m2.a)

1,800
1,600
1,400 R² = 0.0606
1,200
1,000 n>=8 (per
MJ/m2.a

year)
800
600 Linear (n>=8
400 (per year))
200
0
1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019
Year
Source - pitt&sherry

6.4 Total Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Hotels


Table 6.2 shows that in base year of 2009 the estimated total energy use for
hotels/motels is 15.2 PJ, a 32% increase over the 1999 value. This is projected to
increase steadily to 20.4 PJ in 2020 under current trends.

Greenhouse gas emissions associated with hotel energy use in 2009 are estimated at 3.0
Mt CO2-e and are projected to rise to 4.1 Mt CO2-e in 2020. As noted previously, these
emissions projections to 2020 have been calculated using the assumption that from
2010, the greenhouse gas intensity of electricity in each state and territory remains
unchanged over the decade.

Energy Consumption by Fuel – Hotels


Table 6.2 indicates that in 1999 electricity and natural gas accounted for 65% and 35%
total hotel energy respectively, with these proportions remaining steady for all years to
2020. While Table 5.2 shows that electricity and gas are the only fuels used in the hotel
sector, this is not strictly correct. There are number of hotels, particularly in regional
and remote areas, that use LPG and diesel/oil. However, based on the energy data
available to this study, their use as a share of total energy use for all hotel stock is
negligible. Also, there was no significant data on the extent of use of GreenPower/on-
site renewables.

55
Table 6.2 - Hotels, Energy Consumption by Fuel, and GHG Emissions 1999 to 2020, Australia

Diesel
Natural GHG Total
Electricity LPG /Oil
Hotels: Gas Use Emissions Energy
Use (PJ) Use(PJ) Use
(PJ) (Mt CO2-e) Use (PJ)
(PJ)

1999 7.4 4.1 0.0 0.0 2.4 11.5


2000 7.8 4.3 0.0 0.0 2.5 12.1
2001 8.1 4.5 0.0 0.0 2.6 12.6
2002 8.1 4.5 0.0 0.0 2.6 12.7
2003 8.6 4.8 0.0 0.0 2.8 13.3
2004 8.8 4.9 0.0 0.0 2.9 13.6
2005 9.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 2.9 14.0
2006 9.1 5.1 0.0 0.0 2.9 14.2
2007 9.3 5.2 0.0 0.0 2.9 14.5
2008 9.5 5.3 0.0 0.0 3.0 14.8
2009 9.7 5.4 0.0 0.0 3.0 15.2
2010 9.9 5.5 0.0 0.0 3.1 15.5
2011 10.0 5.6 0.0 0.0 3.1 15.6
2012 10.3 5.7 0.0 0.0 3.2 16.1
2013 10.6 5.9 0.0 0.0 3.3 16.5
2014 11.0 6.1 0.0 0.0 3.4 17.1
2015 11.3 6.3 0.0 0.0 3.5 17.7
2016 11.7 6.5 0.0 0.0 3.6 18.2
2017 12.0 6.7 0.0 0.0 3.7 18.7
2018 12.4 6.9 0.0 0.0 3.9 19.3
2019 12.7 7.1 0.0 0.0 4.0 19.8
2020 13.1 7.3 0.0 0.0 4.1 20.4
Source - pitt&sherry

6.5 Energy End Use - Hotels


The analysis of energy end use in hotels is restricted to electricity and natural gas, as
the data sets included no information on the end use of other fuels. Also, the limited
time series and small sample size meant that any change in end –use trends could not be
determined. Therefore, the results below report averages over the 1999-2012 period.

Figure 6.2 below shows the average electricity end-use shares for hotels over all periods
(1990-2020), which comprises a total sample of 133 data points. As mentioned above,
electricity accounts for about 65% of total hotels energy use on average. HVAC accounts
for 52% and lighting 20%, whereas domestic hot water accounts for only 1% of the total
hotel electricity energy use. Figure 6.3 shows the average natural gas end-use shares for
hotels over all periods, based on 99 data points. Space-heating and domestic hot water
use account for 26% and 23% of total natural gas use, respectively, with ‘other’ gas use
accounting for 21%. Laundry (13%), kitchen/catering (11%) and pool heating (6%) make
up the balance.

56
Figure 6.2 - Hotels- Electrical End Use Shares, 1999 – 2012

9%
1%
6%

HVAC

11% Lighting

52% Total Equipment

Pool heating - electric

Domestic Hot Water -


electric
20%

.
Source - pitt&sherry

Figure 6.3 - Hotels- Natural Gas End Use Shares, 1999 – 2012

21%
26%

Space Heating
Domestic Hot Water

6% Kitchen/ catering
Laundry - gas
Pool heating - gas

13% Other gas use

23%

11%
.
Source - pitt&sherry

6.6 State and Territory Results - Hotels


State and territory estimates for energy consumption by fuel, and greenhouse gas
emissions, are calculated for hotels, by region and year. Summary tables are presented
below, while the full data is contained in the NRBuild model.

The ‘default’ estimates are calculated by applying the state, territory and regional time
series for the hotel stock to the national average energy intensity time series and fuel
mix estimates (which may be time series or averages, depending upon data availability).
These values are reported below. Note that the NRBuild model also calculates total
energy and individual fuel intensities for each state, territory, region and time period.

Total energy consumption by state and territory, for 1999, 2009 and 2020, is set out in
Table 8.3. For further details, including breakdown by fuel, intervening years and
greenhouse gas emissions, please refer to the NRBuild model.

57
Table 6.3 - Hotel Energy Consumption by State and Territory

(PJ) 1999 2009 2020


NSW 3.7 5.1 6.5
VIC 2.0 2.8 4.3
QLD 3.2 3.7 4.9
WA 1.0 1.4 1.8
SA 0.7 0.9 1.2
TAS 0.3 0.5 0.6
ACT 0.3 0.3 0.4
NT 0.3 0.5 0.6
Aust. Total: 11.5 15.2 20.4
Source - pitt&sherry

6.6.1 State, Territory and Regional Energy Intensity Calculation – Hotels


It has been noted that the NRBuild model calculates total energy and individual fuel
intensities for each state, territory, region and time period, subject to data availability.
However, the overall sample size (for all the data sets) is generally too small to allow
meaningful regression analyses for the evolution of energy intensity (or fuel mix) at the
level of each state, territory or region.

Table 6.4 - Hotels, Average Energy Intensity by State, Territory and Region (n > 5/year), 1999
– 2012

Average
Energy
State Region Sample
Intensity
(MJ/m2.a)
NSW Capital City 1,478 65
NSW Regional 1,746 17
VIC Capital city 1,495 29
QLD Capital city 960 17
QLD Regional 1,188 13
WA Capital city 946 10
WA Regional 1,089 11
SA Capital city 1,413 8
ACT Capital city 1,337 8
NT Capital city 1,295 12
NT Regional 1,176 8
Subtotals
Aust. Capital city 1,357 150
Aust. Regional 1,313 50
Total
All 1,350 200
Aust.
Source - pitt&sherry

Where sufficient data is available, we report energy intensities by state or territory, as


an average over the 1999 – 2012 time period, along with the underlying sample size,
noting that care should be exercised in comparing energy intensities due to limited
statistical significance. These results are summarised in Table 6.4. Where no values are
shown, this indicates that either no data was available for that state, territory or
region, or otherwise the data sample that fell below the minimum noted.

58
As previously noted, the NRBuild model allows the user to test their preferred values for
energy intensity over time (after the base year of 2009) and specify their own minimum
‘n’ values.

The capital city and regional national averages are very similar at 1,357 MJ/m 2 and
1,313 MJ/m2, respectively, however, the sample size for regions is very low (no data for
some locations). For the capital cities, WA has the lowest average energy intensity (946
MJ/m2.a) which is about 30% lower than the national average. For regions, the average
energy intensity ranges from 1,089 MJ/m2.a (WA) to 1,746 MJ/m2.a (NSW).

Note that the statistical confidence in the difference in energy intensities between
locations is analysed in Appendix E.

6.7 Conclusions - Hotels


This analysis of the energy performance of hotels in Australia is based on a limited data
sample of some 208 records, which is close to the minimum sample required for 95%
confidence with 10% standard error, but only for a single period and region. It is
insufficient for an analysis that aims to resolve 15 regions and 13 time periods. Thus,
the key requirement to lift the statistical validity of this analysis is to capture more
data.

59
7. Retail Buildings
7.1 Introduction
This section examines the energy use and greenhouse gas emissions associated with
retail buildings in Australia, over the period 1999 to 2020. The terms of reference for
this study are limited to an examination of shopping centres, however the study has
compiled stock data on several retail building types, while the energy data compiled
enabled a ‘snapshot’ description of the energy use of supermarkets as well.

A major limitation in the data available to the study was the absence of a significant
time series for energy consumption in retail buildings, with the exception of shopping
centre base buildings. Also, the scope of the study excluded significant retail building
types including retail shopping strips (outside shopping centres) and specific types such
as restaurants, cafes, fast food outlets, pubs and clubs. In total, these building types
are likely to be consuming significant amounts of energy, yet this is not captured in the
NRBuild model.

7.2 Stock Estimates - Retail


The retail stock model prepared by BIS Shrapnel is segmented into enclosed shopping
centres, strip retail and pubs. The retail space forecasts assume a small increase in
retail floor space per capita over the period to 2020. Note that, unlike other stock
estimates which are normalised to ‘net lettable area’, the retail estimates use the
industry-norm metric of ‘gross lettable area- retail (GLAR).

Enclosed shopping centres


The data for enclosed retail centre space is primarily informed by data from the PCA,
with BIS Shrapnel projections to 2020. The stock estimates are presented in
Table 7.1. Note that the growth in reported shopping centre floor space may partly
reflect improved coverage of the PCA’s Shopping Centre Directory.

Supermarkets
As the energy data compiled for this study contained records relating to supermarkets,
both those within shopping centres and ‘standalone’ buildings, BIS Shrapnel prepared
estimates of the total stock of supermarkets in Australia (see Table 7.2). Since many
shopping centres include supermarkets, these two sets are not mutually exclusive. The
NRBuild therefore segments the shopping centre floor area into supermarkets and
‘other’, and applies separately calculated average energy intensity values to each
segment. As there is uncertainty about the share of shopping centre floor space
occupied by supermarkets in Australia, the model applies a BIS Shrapnel estimate (12%)
as a ‘default’ value, however the model user may choose an alternative value. Since
supermarkets are, an average, considerably more energy intensive than most other
shopping centre retail tenancies (except fast food outlets, as discussed below), the
supermarket share of shopping centre floor area is a significant variable in total
shopping centre energy consumption.

60
Table 7.1- Shopping Centre Stock Estimates by State and Region, 1999 – 2020 (‘000 m2 GFA)

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Sydney 2,760 2,973 3,133 3,242 3,244 3,583 3,758 3,895 4,017 4,198 4,184 4,184 4,120 4,217 4,306 4,411 4,519 4,618 4,714 4,840 4,966 5,093

Other NSW 1,220 1,314 1,385 1,433 1,434 1,584 1,478 1,435 1,503 1,551 1,566 1,698 1,907 1,958 2,005 2,060 2,116 2,168 2,218 2,285 2,351 2,417

Melbourne 2,224 2,295 2,268 2,404 2,609 2,636 2,738 2,715 2,852 3,165 3,147 3,109 3,335 3,457 3,605 3,743 3,885 4,024 4,151 4,312 4,473 4,635

Other
334 344 340 361 392 396 352 526 525 497 477 618 533 555 582 608 634 659 682 712 741 770
Victoria

Brisbane 1,570 1,630 1,703 1,781 1,828 1,902 1,987 2,065 2,275 2,399 2,528 2,667 2,496 2,550 2,626 2,705 2,782 2,854 2,925 3,023 3,120 3,218

Other
1,450 1,506 1,573 1,645 1,688 1,756 1,870 1,774 2,069 2,113 2,037 2,097 2,366 2,412 2,473 2,538 2,602 2,660 2,719 2,799 2,879 2,960
Queensland

Perth 1,287 1,376 1,481 1,573 1,567 1,575 1,641 1,803 1,854 1,920 1,920 1,895 1,843 1,898 1,955 2,014 2,074 2,137 2,201 2,267 2,335 2,405

Other WA 265 284 305 324 323 324 304 309 321 323 317 303 427 438 449 462 481 499 515 535 555 574

Adelaide 845 934 995 1,019 1,100 1,114 1,176 1,192 1,194 1,201 1,202 1,217 1,226 1,246 1,276 1,302 1,328 1,353 1,377 1,408 1,440 1,471

Other SA 95 105 112 115 124 125 125 117 117 123 133 141 160 168 181 191 202 212 222 236 249 262

Hobart 100 101 102 102 102 109 117 117 119 117 117 121 103 105 108 112 115 118 121 124 127 130

Other
42 42 43 43 43 46 45 51 48 50 54 24 49 52 61 67 71 75 79 85 92 98
Tasmania

ACT 262 294 298 304 310 316 313 323 372 373 377 376 355 367 375 385 393 400 406 414 422 430

Darwin 102 104 105 107 111 112 139 152 162 177 178 177 168 174 181 189 196 204 212 221 229 239

Other NT 28 28 29 29 30 30 31 32 33 33 34 31 47 49 50 51 53 55 56 58 60 62

Aust: 12,584 13,330 13,873 14,484 14,903 15,608 16,076 16,505 17,461 18,239 18,270 18,658 19,133 19,648 20,234 20,837 21,451 22,036 22,599 23,318 24,039 24,763

Source - BIS Shrapnel, PCA

61
Table 7.2- Supermarket Stock Estimates by State and Region, 1999 – 2020 (‘000 m2 GFA)

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Sydney 985 1,007 1,028 1,051 1,074 1,098 1,122 1,146 1,172 1,198 1,225 1,253 1,274 1,300 1,327 1,364 1,401 1,439 1,478 1,516 1,556 1,596

Other NSW 818 833 848 862 878 893 909 925 941 957 973 989 1,000 1,009 1,020 1,031 1,041 1,051 1,061 1,071 1,080 1,090

Melbourne 1,237 1,264 1,292 1,324 1,356 1,387 1,419 1,452 1,486 1,522 1,559 1,596 1,623 1,649 1,677 1,709 1,739 1,769 1,800 1,830 1,861 1,892

Other Victoria 284 291 297 302 306 312 318 324 330 335 339 345 350 354 358 362 366 370 374 378 382 386

Brisbane 572 589 607 626 646 679 698 717 738 761 785 809 822 837 854 874 893 912 933 953 974 994

Other Queensland 576 595 615 636 657 665 689 715 740 764 789 816 830 845 862 881 901 920 938 957 975 993

Perth 546 555 564 575 585 596 606 618 628 639 651 662 676 691 708 728 747 764 783 803 822 842

Other WA 180 183 186 188 190 192 196 198 201 204 206 209 214 218 224 229 234 239 244 248 253 258

Adelaide 410 413 417 421 424 427 430 434 437 441 445 449 452 456 460 466 472 477 483 489 494 500

Other SA 145 147 148 149 150 152 154 155 156 158 159 160 161 163 164 165 167 168 169 171 172 174

Hobart 73 73 74 74 74 75 75 75 76 76 77 77 78 79 80 80 81 82 83 83 84 84

Other Tasmania 98 98 98 98 99 99 99 100 100 100 100 101 101 102 103 103 104 105 105 106 106 107

ACT 117 117 118 118 119 119 120 120 121 121 121 122 123 125 127 128 130 131 133 135 136 138

Darwin 34 35 35 35 35 35 35 36 36 36 36 37 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46

Other NT 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 33 33 34 35 36 37 37 38 39 40

Australia 6,106 6,232 6,360 6,491 6,625 6,762 6,903 7,047 7,194 7,345 7,499 7,657 7,775 7,900 8,036 8,198 8,354 8,507 8,664 8,822 8,980 9,138

Source - BIS Shrapnel

62
Table 7.3 - Retail Strip Stock Estimates by State and Region, 1999 – 2020 (‘000 m2 GFA)

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Sydney 6,351 6,321 6,310 6,428 6,620 6,493 6,513 6,706 6,817 6,855 7,047 7,254 7,459 7,514 7,556 7,624 7,701 7,779 7,859 7,937 8,015 8,092

Other NSW 4,401 4,389 4,385 4,406 4,481 4,403 4,601 4,730 4,750 4,883 4,991 4,945 4,819 4,831 4,840 4,858 4,880 4,904 4,928 4,949 4,970 4,990

Melbourne 6,040 6,110 6,302 6,290 6,315 6,466 6,506 6,763 6,856 6,739 7,028 7,450 7,398 7,491 7,552 7,631 7,717 7,778 7,853 7,925 7,997 8,069

Other
2,994 3,006 3,036 3,037 3,022 3,043 3,122 2,975 3,012 3,088 3,177 3,076 3,221 3,247 3,266 3,290 3,315 3,334 3,357 3,380 3,403 3,426
Victoria

Brisbane 2,253 2,313 2,314 2,391 2,481 2,518 2,528 2,570 2,549 2,681 2,701 2,646 2,947 3,020 3,055 3,110 3,174 3,241 3,305 3,368 3,431 3,493

Other
3,388 3,464 3,477 3,494 3,566 3,588 3,593 3,905 3,838 3,916 4,235 4,326 4,213 4,301 4,354 4,429 4,513 4,597 4,679 4,766 4,853 4,940
Queensland

Perth 2,138 2,169 2,162 2,128 2,196 2,284 2,284 2,187 2,266 2,319 2,455 2,582 2,717 2,766 2,817 2,899 2,977 3,027 3,079 3,160 3,240 3,318

Other WA 914 929 935 945 971 997 1,037 1,064 1,084 1,113 1,149 1,183 1,086 1,106 1,126 1,155 1,177 1,191 1,210 1,233 1,257 1,281

Adelaide 1,864 1,794 1,769 1,771 1,725 1,747 1,736 1,788 1,830 1,860 1,892 1,923 1,941 1,964 1,964 1,976 1,988 1,996 2,008 2,020 2,033 2,045

Other SA 747 744 751 758 763 775 797 816 823 838 853 863 853 857 852 851 851 849 849 848 846 845

Hobart 361 366 370 373 378 376 372 387 391 407 417 416 439 445 451 453 455 456 458 461 464 466

Other
610 616 620 624 629 632 641 651 661 667 668 708 688 692 692 691 692 691 692 691 690 690
Tasmania

ACT 420 444 449 454 473 475 484 489 524 537 589 600 647 649 653 658 662 666 673 675 677 680

Darwin 68 76 86 94 107 119 105 107 112 110 118 129 152 149 149 154 158 159 159 160 160 160

Other NT 112 119 129 137 147 155 160 166 172 185 194 214 209 211 214 222 229 233 237 242 247 251

Australia: 32,659 32,862 33,095 33,328 33,873 34,072 34,481 35,305 35,683 36,199 37,515 38,316 38,789 39,242 39,542 40,002 40,489 40,902 41,345 41,816 42,283 42,746

Source - BIS Shrapnel

63
Strip retail, pubs
‘Strip retail’ floor area is calculated by taking total BIS estimates of total retail
(excluding pubs) and subtracting enclosed retail centres (see

Table 7.3). Total retail space is estimated by applying a ratio of around 2.5 m 2 to 2.6m2
per capita. This ratio is higher than those typically used by retail industry analysts
because the definition of total retail space used here is broader than that typically used
by retail analysts. For example, it includes an allowance of around 0.3m 2 per capita for
office services provided in ‘retail’ space (such as real estate agents) and motor vehicle
retail – the exact ratio used varies between centres. Pubs fall within the retail
classification, although they are outside the terms of reference for this study.
Neverthless we have developed separate stock estimates of pub space as a sub-
classification. The estimates are of a low quality, being based on a small sample of hard
data for the Sydney and Melbourne Local Government Authorities (LGAs), and then using
space per person employed as a proxy to create estimates for space in other parts of the
country. Limitations of using employment as a metric include the different opening
hours of pubs and significant part/time casual workforce. We have assumed that there
is an average of 45m2 per pub employee. Note that the energy performance of these
buildings is not modelled, as they fell outside the study’s terms of reference, however
the stock estimates compiled provide a starting point for the development of additional
model segments for these building types in the future.

As noted, the stock estimates are not mutually exclusive, as supermarkets may be found
both in shopping centres and retail shopping strips. We estimate that, on average, some
22% of shopping centre floor area is occupied by supermarkets. The balance of the
supermarket stock is assumed to be ‘standalone’ buildings.

7.3 Energy Intensity - Retail


There was insufficient energy consumption data available for this study to make a robust
analysis of energy performance trends in the retail sector at the degree of resolution
desired – particularly over the historical period back to 1999. While the study captured
a total of 1,980 records relating to 1,052 individual buildings in the sector, this data was
heavily weighted towards the 2011 financial year and also unevenly distributed by
building type. Some time series data was available for shopping centre base buildings
(172 records), but insufficient for statistically valid analysis when disaggregated by year,
state and region.

For this reason, the analysis of the energy performance of the retail stock largely
represents a ‘snapshot’ in time. Further targeted data capture would be required to
populate a time series model, as recommended in Section 7.8 below. Energy intensity
and fuel mix ‘default’ estimates are therefore simple averages of the data available. As
for other building types, the NRBuild model enables the user to specify alternative
values for energy intensity and fuel mix, including projections over the period to 2020.
Despite this limitation, the study has enabled useful comparative analysis of the energy
intensity of different retail building types. This, in addition to the stock estimates,
should help target future research.

Hours of Operation
As noted in Section 3.2 above, the retail energy data sets were normalised for hours of
operation. Average values for hours of operation were calculated from those records
that revealed this information, while those that did not reveal any values for hours of
operation were assumed to have the average value. Reported fuel consumption for each
record was then factored up or down as a function of the ratio of average hours to
reported hours. As a result, the reported values for energy intensity may be directly
compared. For all shopping centre retail areas, the average value for hours of operation
was just over 79 hours per week. However, this segmented into an average of over 96

64
hours/week for supermarkets located in shopping centres, and just over 59 hours/week
for other retail tenancies.
For base and whole buildings, average values for hours of operation were just over 61
hours/week for shopping centres and almost 100 hours/week for supermarkets.

7.3.1 Energy Intensity - Shopping Centres


Shopping centre energy intensity estimates are sub-divided into tenancies (supermarkets
and others), base buildings and whole buildings.

Retail Tenancies
853 data records relating to retail tenancies (other than supermarkets) were collated,
representing just under 200,000 m2 of retail space. These records related primarily to
2010 (638 records) and 2011 (215 records). By contrast, most states and regions are
covered by this data, with the exceptions of Perth, Hobart and Darwin. The tenancy
types vary from fast food outlets and cafes (in shopping centres), to large-surface
general retailers and micro-sized specialty shops and include many of the most common
retail chains represented across Australia. The average size of these tenancies is 229 m 2
GLAR, although the median (or central) value is just 97 m 2 GLAR.

The average energy intensity of this sample was 915 MJ/m2a. As with other such
calculations, the average value represents the area-weighted average of all states and
regions. Given the limited overall data sample, there are few significant estimates
available for energy intensity at the state, territory or regional level. However, it
appears that the average energy intensity of retail tenancies in capital cities is some
13% higher than those in regional areas, at around 960 MJ/m 2.a as compared to around
850 MJ/m2.a in regional areas. Significant average values are recorded for Brisbane
(1,011 MJ/m2.a; n=517) and regional Queensland (881 MJ/m 2.a; n=310) only. Not
surprisingly, given likely climate effects, these values are modestly higher than the
national averages.

When the retail tenancy energy intensity values were sorted from highest to lowest, it
was immediately apparent that the most energy intensive retail tenancies (in shopping
centres) are fast food outlets. These outlets typically occupy a limited floor area
(including the ‘hole in the wall’ variety, eg, less than 10 m 2 GLAR) yet feature
significant cooking, heating, display lighting and refrigeration – all energy intensive
processes. As a result, energy intensities as high as 48,000 MJ/m 2.a are revealed in the
data set, with values near or above 10,000 MJ/m 2.a reasonably common.

Note that the skewed distribution of energy intensities within the sample (and, most
likely, within the actual retail stock) highlights the value of area-weighted averages.
Examining the set of all shopping centres tenancies, for example, shows an area-
weighted average energy intensity of 915 MJ/m2.a, as noted above, but a simple or
unweighted average value of 1,550 MJ/m2.a, some 41% higher. The latter value over-
estimates the average energy performance of the retail stock, as it is skewed towards
the smaller area of very high energy-intensity retailers, such as the fast food outlets
noted.

Base Buildings
Turning to retail shopping centre base buildings, the data set comprises 172 records.
The data covers the period 2007 to 2011, and the average values reported below are
averages over these 5 years. The average floor area associated with these records is
substantially larger than for the retail tenancies, at almost 12,700 m 2 GFA, while the
media floor area is around 2,750 m2 GLAR. This indicates that the sample includes a
smaller number of large shopping centres and a larger number of smaller ones.

Based on this data, the national average energy intensity value for shopping centre base
buildings is just over 400 MJ/m2.a. As with the retail tenancies, the average energy
intensity of capital city shopping centre base buildings appears higher than those in

65
regional areas, at almost 450 MJ/m2.a for capital cities on average (n=82), as compared
with around 350 MJ/m2.a for regional areas (n=90). Given the modest overall sample, no
significant intensity values are reported by state and territory.

Whole Buildings
Records relating to shopping centre whole buildings were limited to just 35, albeit that
they covered more than 1.1 million m2 GLAR. They relate to the years 2007 – 2011. This
set was judged too small for valid statistical analysis, and therefore – as with offices -
‘whole building’ calculations represent the sum of base buildings plus retail tenancies.
As noted above, the retail tenancy energy intensity values represent the area-weighted
average of supermarket and other retail types. On this basis, and assuming 12% of
shopping centre floor area is represented by supermarkets, the national average energy
intensity of whole shopping centres is just over 1,600 MJ/m2.a. This result is sensitive
to the assumption for supermarket area, as supermarket tenancies are considerably
more energy intensive than the average retail tenancy (as discussed further below).
This value may be varied by the user in the NRBuild model, within reason, noting that
any value above about 40% (supermarket share of shopping centre floor area) would
imply that all supermarkets in Australia were located in shopping centres.

7.3.2 Energy Intensity - Supermarkets


Some 839 data records were compiled for supermarkets, comprising 594 whole building
observations and 245 supermarket retail tenancies (i.e, those located in shopping
centres). The data relates almost exclusively to financial year 2011 and represents a
total of over 2 million m2 GFA. The sample is reasonably broadly distributed by state
and region, with no data on supermarket tenancies for Hobart and regional NT (where
the stock of supermarkets in shopping centres is likely to be limited in any case), and
with limited data for supermarket whole buildings in Perth (n=1), Darwin (n=2) and
Hobart (n=4).

Beginning with the supermarkets within shopping centres, the area-weighted national
average energy intensity of these supermarkets was just over 3,300 MJ/m2.a, while the
simple average value was less than 2% higher at around 3,370 MJ/m 2.a, suggesting a
reasonably uniform distribution of intensity values within the sample. In contrast to
general retail tenancies, the average energy intensity of supermarkets in shopping
centres in regional areas was higher (at around 3,520 MJ/m2.a; n=101) compared with
those in capital cities (at around 3,150 MJ/m2.a; n=144).

At the level of states and territories, the cooler climates appear to show lower energy
intensities, such around 2,600 MJ/m2.a for Melbourne, regional Victoria and the ACT;
and just under 3,000 MJ/m2.a for regional Tasmania. While no end-use breakdowns
were available for retail buildings, we note that supermarket energy consumption is
dominated firstly by space cooling needs, and then by refrigeration and lighting, which
in turn create further space cooling needs. Therefore the cooler climates have a natural
advantage in this regard.

By contrast, the highest energy intensity values (for supermarkets in shopping centres)
are found in the warmer climates of WA (close to 3,900 MJ/m2.a; n=37) and QLD (over
3,600 MJ/m2.a in Brisbane, n=47; and over 3,800 MJ/m2.a in regional Queensland, n=24).
Only one data point was available for Darwin, and this was over 3,900 MJ/m 2.a.

Turning to standalone supermarkets, the national average energy intensity was 3,375
MJ/m2.a, with a similar pattern of slightly higher averages in regional areas (around
3,560 MJ/m2.a, n=276) when compared with capital cities (around 3,200 MJ/m 2.a,
n=318). Likewise, the higher average energy intensity values are found in the warmer
regions, such as over 4,600 MJ/m2.a in regional QLD (n=46), and close to 4,100 in
regional WA (n=47); while the cooler climate show lower average values, including
around 2,600 MJ/m2.a for Melbourne (n=104), around 2,900 MJ/m2.a for regional
Victoria (n=52) and regional SA (n=16), and around 3,000 MJ/m 2.a for regional Tasmania
(n=21).

66
Note that the statistical confidence in the difference in energy intensities between
locations is analysed in Appendix E.

7.4 Total Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions -


Retail
7.4.1 All Retail
Table 7.4 shows that total energy use in the retail buildings covered by the study is
estimated to have been some 47.2 PJ in the base year of 2009.

Table 7.4 - Retail: Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions, 1999 – 2020
Shopping Shopping Shopping
Supermarkets Supermarkets
Centres Centres (Base Centres TOTALS
(Total) (Stand Alone)
(Total) Building) (Tenancies)
Total GHG Total GHG Total GHG Total GHG Total GHG Total GHG
Energy (Mt Energy (Mt Energy (Mt Energy (Mt Energy (Mt CO2- Energy Emissions
Use CO2-e) Use CO2-e) Use CO2-e) Use CO2-e) Use e) Use (PJ) (Mt CO2-e)

1999 - - 5.1 1.4 - - - - - - - -


2000 - - 5.4 1.5 - - - - - - - -
2001 - - 5.6 1.6 - - - - - - - -
2002 - - 5.8 1.6 - - - - - - - -
2003 - - 6.0 1.7 - - - - - - - -
2004 - - 6.3 1.8 - - - - - - - -
2005 - - 6.5 1.8 - - - - - - - -
2006 - - 6.7 1.8 - - - - - - - -
2007 - - 7.0 1.9 - - - - - - - -
2008 - - 7.3 2.0 - - - - - - - -
2009 29.3 8.3 7.4 2.0 22.0 6.3 25.3 7.3 17.9 5.1 47.2 13.4
2010 29.9 8.4 7.5 2.0 22.4 6.4 25.8 7.4 18.3 5.2 48.2 13.6
2011 30.7 8.6 7.7 2.1 23.0 6.5 26.2 7.5 18.6 5.3 49.3 13.9
2012 31.5 8.8 7.9 2.1 23.6 6.7 26.7 7.6 18.9 5.4 50.4 14.2
2013 32.5 9.1 8.2 2.2 24.3 6.9 27.1 7.7 19.2 5.5 51.7 14.6
2014 33.4 9.4 8.4 2.3 25.0 7.1 27.7 7.9 19.6 5.6 53.0 15.0
2015 34.4 9.7 8.6 2.3 25.8 7.3 28.2 8.0 20.0 5.7 54.4 15.4
2016 35.4 9.9 8.9 2.4 26.5 7.5 28.7 8.2 20.3 5.8 55.7 15.7
2017 36.3 10.2 9.1 2.5 27.2 7.7 29.2 8.3 20.7 5.9 57.0 16.1
2018 37.4 10.5 9.4 2.5 28.0 8.0 29.8 8.5 21.1 6.0 58.5 16.5
2019 38.6 10.8 9.7 2.6 28.9 8.2 30.3 8.6 21.4 6.1 60.0 17.0
2020 39.7 11.2 10.0 2.7 29.8 8.5 30.8 8.8 21.8 6.2 61.6 17.4
Source - pitt&sherry
Notes: No statistically significant data on the energy consumption of supermarkets or
shopping centres tenancies was available prior to 2009. 'Shopping Centres (Total)'
includes supermarkets inside shopping centres. Supermarkets in shopping centres are
included in 'Shopping Centres (Tenancies)'. 'Supermarkets (Total)' represents the all
supermarkets, including those in shopping centres, while 'Supermarkets (Standalone)'
are net of those in shopping centres.

Greenhouse gas emissions associated with this energy use are estimated at 13.4 Mt CO2-
e. By 2020, energy consumption in these buildings is expected to increase by a

67
substantial 32% over this 2009 base, to around 62 PJ, while greenhouse gas emissions are
expected to reach 17.4 Mt CO2-e in the same year. Since the study assumes constant
energy intensity in these buildings over the forecast period, and also a constant fuel mix
(as a result of the data limitations noted above), these projections reflect expected
growth trends in the building stock, as described in Section 7.2 above. No attempt was
made to backcast energy consumption in periods prior to the base year, given the lack
of the energy intensity data for period back to 1999. Significant additional data capture
would be required populate the retail building modules in NRBuild model back to 1999.

7.4.2 Shopping Centres


Table 7.4 also shows that estimated energy consumption in shopping centres in the base
year of 2009 was around 29.3 PJ, with the majority of this energy use (22 PJ)
attributable to retail tenancies – including an assumption of 12% supermarket floor area
within shopping centres, with the balance (around 7.4 PJ) attributable to base building
energy consumption. Note that these estimates include the energy attributable to the
estimated 12% of shopping centre floor area occupied by supermarkets. These values
are expected to increase, in line with growth in the underlying building stock, to just
under 40 PJ in 2020 in total, with around 30 PJ attributable to tenancies and the
balance to base buildings.

In terms of greenhouse gas emissions, we estimate around 8.3 Mt CO 2-e for all shopping
centres in 2009, with around 8.3 Mt CO2-e attributable to tenancies, and some 11.2 Mt
CO2-e in 2020, of which around 8.5 Mt CO2-e is attributable to tenancies. As noted
earlier, there is uncertainty about the area of supermarkets within shopping centres in
Australia: values higher than the assumed 12% would tend to increase estimates for
total energy and greenhouse gas emissions. We would characterise the estimates for
2009 as ‘medium’ confidence, while the projections for 2020 are ‘low’ confidence, given
the data limitations described above.

Fuel Mix
Noting the data limitations above, only an average fuel mix observations were available
for shopping centres, rather than time series. Taking all shopping centres as a whole,
the average fuel mix is dominated by electricity at around 97.5%, with the balance
accounted for by natural gas. Within shopping centre tenancies, electricity’s share on
average is even higher, at over 99% (natural gas is the balance). Implied in these results
is a somewhat lower electricity share for shopping centre base buildings, which we
estimate at just under 93% on average, with the balance attributable to natural gas. No
significant use of diesel or LPG was noted.
No statistically significant end use information was available in this data set, however it
is likely that the modest amounts of gas consumed in shopping centres are associated
with space heating, cooking and domestic hot water applications.

7.4.3 Supermarkets
Supermarket energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions are presented for
‘standalone’ supermarkets (those outside shopping centres) and all supermarkets
(including those inside shopping centres). The latter estimates may therefore not be
added to the shopping centre estimates, as this would double count the supermarkets in
shopping centres.

Table 7.4 shows that we estimate total supermarket energy consumption in 2009 to have
been around 25.3 PJ, of which around 17.9 PJ is estimated to have been consumed in
standalone supermarkets, and the balance in supermarkets in shopping centres. Total
supermarket energy consumption is projected to increase by some 22% to 2020, reaching
almost 31 PJ, of which almost 22 PJ is attributable to standalone supermarkets.

In terms of greenhouse gas emissions, total emissions associated with supermarkets are
estimated at around 7.3 Mt CO2-e in 2009, of which just over 5 PJ is attributable to the
standalone supermarkets. By 2020, these values are expected to increase to around 8.8

68
Mt CO2-e in total, with around 6.2 Mt CO2-e of this attributable to standalone
supermarkets.

As with the shopping centre data, these estimates are ‘medium’ confidence for 2009
and ‘low’ for 2020, given the data limitations noted.

Fuel Mix
As with shopping centres, supermarket energy consumption is dominated by electricity,
with an average for all supermarkets of over 99%, with the balance being natural gas, in
the standalone and total stock. As noted, no statistically significant end-use breakdown
information was available for retail buildings, however the very high share of electricity
use is associated with the dominant loads in supermarkets being space cooling, lighting
and refrigeration, which typically consume electricity.

7.5 Energy End Use - Retail


No statistically significant information was captured on retail energy end use.

7.6 States and Territory Estimates - Retail


As described in Section 9.3, no estimates of retail energy consumption are available
prior to 2009, with the sole exception of shopping centre base buildings. Estimates by
state and territory reflect differences in the stock distribution by state rather than
energy intensity. National average energy intensity values are applied as ‘defaults’, due
to the data limitations described above, although the NRBuild model allows the user to
substitute alternative values, including state/territory values, if desired. Tables 9.5 to
9.9 below present these estimates by retail building sub-type. Note that additional
estimates are available in the NRBuild model for state and territory energy consumption
by fuel and year (from 2009 to 2020), and also for greenhouse gas emissions.

Table 7.5 - Shopping Centre Total Energy Consumption by State, 2009 and 2020, PJ

(PJ) 2009 2020


NSW 9.2 12.1
VIC 5.8 8.7
QLD 7.3 9.9
WA 3.6 4.8
SA 2.1 2.8
TAS 0.3 0.4
ACT 0.6 0.7
NT 0.3 0.5
Total: 29.3 39.7
Source - pitt&sherry

69
Table 7.6 - Shopping Centre Retail Tenancies Energy Consumption by State, 2009 and 2020,
PJ

(PJ) 2009 2020


NSW 6.9 9.0
VIC 4.4 6.5
QLD 5.5 7.4
WA 2.7 3.6
SA 1.6 2.1
TAS 0.2 0.3
ACT 0.5 0.5
NT 0.3 0.4
Total: 22.0 29.8
Source - pitt&sherry
NB: Includes an allowance for supermarkets in shopping centres, based on a 12% share of
shopping centre floor area.

Table 7.7 - Shopping Centre Base Building Energy Consumption by State, 2009 and 2020, PJ

(PJ) 1999 2009 2020


NSW 1.6 2.3 3.0
VIC 1.0 1.5 2.2
QLD 1.2 1.8 2.5
WA 0.6 0.9 1.2
SA 0.4 0.5 0.7
TAS 0.1 0.1 0.1
ACT 0.1 0.2 0.2
NT 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total: 5.1 7.4 10.0
Source - pitt&sherry

Table 7.8 - Supermarket Total Energy Consumption by State, 2009 and 2020, PJ

(PJ) 2009 2020


NSW 7.4 9.1
VIC 6.4 7.7
QLD 5.3 6.7
WA 2.9 3.7
SA 2.0 2.3
TAS 0.6 0.6
ACT 0.4 0.5
NT 0.2 0.3
Total: 25.3 30.8
Source - pitt&sherry

70
Table 7.9 - Stand-alone Supermarket Energy Consumption by State, 2009 and 2020, PJ

(PJ) 2009 2020


NSW 5.3 6.4
VIC 4.5 5.4
QLD 3.8 4.7
WA 2.0 2.6
SA 1.4 1.6
TAS 0.4 0.5
ACT 0.3 0.3
NT 0.2 0.2
Total: 17.9 21.8
Source - pitt&sherry

7.7 Conclusions - Retail


The lack of time series data for the energy performance of most retail building sub-
types is the key limitation on the estimates in this chapter. In particular, very little or
no data was available prior to 2009. Generally, therefore, our confidence in the
projections for energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions is low.

At the same time, a good sample of current/recent data was available to the study,
totaling 1,980 records relating to 1,052 individual buildings. This data is broadly
distributed by state, territory and region, if not by time period, and it provides a useful
‘snapshot’ analysis of current energy consumption, energy intensity and greenhouse gas
emissions performance. At a minimum, new data could be added to this base annually,
eventually building up a reasonable time series. However, we recommend below that
an attempt is made to capture historical data as well.

Separately, while the scope of retail energy use reported is wider than that required in
the study’s terms of reference, still it excludes energy use associated with ‘retail
shopping strips’ (retailing outside shopping centres). Since we estimate the 2009 floor
area of such shopping strips to total some 37 million m2 GFA, the estimates for total
energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions presented in this study are likely to
significantly underestimate total energy consumption in retail buildings. At the same
time, the bottom-up estimate of total energy consumption in the NRBuild model
represents around 94% of total retail energy consumption as estimated using top-down,
national energy statistics (see Appendix E). This suggests that, if the model were
populated for retail shopping strips, it may then over-estimate total retail energy
consumption, although this analysis will need to be suspended until such time as the
additional data is available.

71
8. Hospitals
8.1 Introduction
This chapter presents key findings and underlying assumptions for hospitals, as modelled
in NRBuild. No energy data was available for private hospitals. Based on the energy
data captured for public hospitals/healthcare facilities, average energy intensity figures
were calculated which were applied to all (public and private) stock to estimate total
energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.

8.2 Stock Estimates - Hospitals


The stock of hospital space in Australia has been estimated by BIS Shrapnel, drawing on
data sources and estimation techniques, as summarised in Chapter 3, with further detail
in Appendix C. In the BIS Shrapnel stock model, the healthcare classification is divided
into public hospitals, private acute care hospitals, private day hospitals and other health
care. However, the NRBuild model only covers the major public and private hospitals,
as described below.

Public hospital floor space estimates


Floor space estimates for public hospitals are based on data sourced from state and
territory health authorities, which have then been adjusted to normalise for definitional
differences. In some states, information on the number of hospital beds (as defined by
the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW)) has been used to proxy public
hospital space. The average space is assumed to be around 171m2 per public hospital
bed in 2010, although for most states, there was limited information on the capital
city/regional split of floor area.

Private hospital floor space estimates


Private hospital floor space has been calculated by multiplying the number of beds by
assumed m2/ bed. The number of hospital beds is sourced from the AIHW. However, a
sample of private hospitals showed wide variation in floor space per bed. For private
acute care hospitals, the assumed average space per bed is 100m2 -120m2.

Hospital floor space forecasts


The hospital floor space forecasts are based on several factors, including information on
existing projects. Other factors include estimates for the number of patient days. Data
on patient days per population by 5 year age group is available from the AIHW. This
data is combined with forecasts for population by 5 year age group to produce an
estimate of the trend in the number of patient days based purely on demographic
factors. This figure is then adjusted qualitatively to take account of the fact that
improved medical procedures should result in shorter hospital stays over time and likely
funding constraints for hospital construction.

In the base year of 2009, hospitals are estimated to have comprised some 12.4 million
m2 across Australia as a whole (see Table 8.1). Historically, the stock growth fluctuated
between 1999 and 2011, with stock numbers actually decreasing in some years as a
result of demolitions and subsequent rebuilds. However from 2009, it projected to grow
to 2020 at around 2% per year.

New South Wales comprises the largest share of all hospital stock by state/territory,
however, this share is expected to fall slightly over the 2009 to 2020 period, from 32.8%
to 32.3%. Over the same period, the shares of Queensland and Western Australia are
expected to increase, from 20% to 21% (QLD) and from 12.2% to 13.3% (WA).

72
Table 8.1 – All Hospital Stock by State and Region, 1999 to 2020 (‘000 m2)

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Sydney 2,701 2,573 2,535 2,556 2,664 2,764 2,909 2,831 2,816 2,805 2,781 2,817 2,822 2,822 2,909 3,021 3,026 3,002 3,007 3,041 3,075 3,110

Other NSW 1,282 1,223 1,198 1,164 1,215 1,333 1,417 1,340 1,298 1,302 1,284 1,214 1,214 1,215 1,217 1,241 1,239 1,245 1,245 1,259 1,273 1,287

Melbourne 1,675 1,737 1,749 1,699 1,719 1,729 1,737 1,785 1,822 1,857 1,850 1,852 1,867 1,922 1,934 1,943 2,019 2,049 2,082 2,113 2,144 2,176

Other Victoria 765 771 776 743 759 761 762 778 788 828 825 866 875 878 886 888 908 938 952 966 981 995

Brisbane 1,163 1,136 1,118 1,137 1,149 1,138 1,145 1,161 1,193 1,267 1,295 1,363 1,368 1,383 1,402 1,468 1,474 1,480 1,486 1,492 1,520 1,549

Other Queensland 1,231 1,220 1,209 1,201 1,193 1,192 1,185 1,244 1,223 1,187 1,197 1,127 1,132 1,300 1,411 1,466 1,466 1,543 1,546 1,549 1,556 1,637

Perth 1,240 1,226 1,115 1,113 1,123 1,080 1,125 1,131 1,106 1,165 1,134 1,178 1,183 1,195 1,225 1,354 1,433 1,413 1,394 1,397 1,400 1,403

Other WA 508 505 486 483 483 467 465 447 444 398 382 381 382 382 383 397 397 398 399 408 417 426

Adelaide 758 745 749 753 758 775 793 807 806 807 812 817 818 840 861 863 864 982 937 909 897 899

Other SA 206 203 204 205 209 218 226 254 258 259 261 260 261 263 265 267 269 272 274 277 280 282

Hobart 105 103 106 107 108 109 116 122 125 129 128 125 125 125 125 125 159 159 159 159 160 160

Other Tasmania 74 74 74 75 76 76 83 86 89 89 88 89 89 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 93 94

ACT 168 161 163 160 162 163 162 171 185 197 198 195 198 201 204 207 216 219 222 226 229 232

Darwin 103 99 102 102 103 103 103 108 108 102 103 107 107 107 107 108 118 118 119 119 121 124

Other NT 68 64 67 67 68 68 68 69 69 69 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 70 71 73 74 76

Aust: 12,045 11,840 11,651 11,565 11,790 11,973 12,295 12,335 12,329 12,462 12,406 12,459 12,508 12,790 13,086 13,506 13,747 13,977 13,984 14,079 14,220 14,451

Source - BIS Shrapnel

73
8.3 Energy Intensity - Hospitals
Energy and fuel intensities for public hospitals are calculated for each year drawing on
972 data records that relate to 352 actual hospitals/health care facilities. While there
is a reasonable sample size overall, these records are distributed unevenly across
financial years (1999 to 2012) and states and regions. For example, Victoria and NSW
are better represented than other states and territories in all years for which data was
obtained. As previously mentioned, no records were available for private hospitals.

National average energy intensities for all fuels that are referenced are those associated
with the highest sample size and statistical confidence. Figure 8.1 shows the average
annual energy intensity for hospitals for the years 2005 to 2011. The results are based
on energy data for years where the sample size (n) of buildings >=40/year; a reasonable
number. The trend line shows that average energy intensity increased modestly from
1,493MJ/m2.a in 2005 to 1,566 MJ/m2.a in 2011, with the average energy intensity in
any one year deviating less than 100 MJ/m2.a from the trend line.

Other results are available from the NRBuild model, but with decreasing confidence as
we try to resolve smaller geographical units (individual states, territories and regions
within them) or partition the data by ownership type.

Figure 8.1 - Hospitals Energy Intensity, Australia, (MJ/m2.a)


..
1,800
1,600
1,400 y = 12.173x - 22914
R² = 0.1513
1,200
1,000
MJ/m2.a

800 n>=40/year
600 Linear (n>=40/year)
400
200
0
Total 'n': 448
1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

Year
Source - pitt&sherry

8.4 Total Hospital Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions


Table 8.2 shows that in base year of 2009 the estimated total energy use for hospitals is
19.1 PJ, a 12% increase over the 1999 value. This is projected to increase steadily to
24.2 PJ in 2020 under current trends.

Greenhouse gas emissions associated with hospital energy use in 2009 are estimated at
3.2 Mt CO2-e and are projected to rise to 4.0 Mt CO2-e in 2020.

Energy Consumption by Fuel - Hospitals

Table 8.2 also indicates that in 1999 electricity and natural gas accounted for about 49%
and 47% of total hospital energy, respectively, with LPG making up the remainder.
These proportions remain steady over the 2009-2020 period.

74
75
Table 8.2 - Total Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Hospitals, 1999-2020

GHG
Electricity Natural Gas LPG Use Diesel/Oil Total Energy
Hospitals: Emissions
Use (PJ) Use (PJ) (PJ) Use (PJ) Use (PJ)
(Mt CO2-e)
1999 8.4 8.1 0.6 0.0 2.9 17.1
2000 8.3 8.0 0.6 0.0 2.9 17.0
2001 8.3 8.0 0.6 0.0 2.9 16.8
2002 8.3 8.0 0.6 0.0 2.9 16.8
2003 8.5 8.2 0.6 0.0 3.0 17.3
2004 8.7 8.4 0.6 0.0 3.0 17.7
2005 9.0 8.7 0.6 0.0 3.1 18.4
2006 9.1 8.8 0.6 0.0 3.1 18.6
2007 9.2 8.9 0.6 0.0 3.1 18.7
2008 9.4 9.0 0.6 0.0 3.2 19.1
2009 9.4 9.1 0.6 0.0 3.2 19.1
2010 9.5 9.2 0.7 0.0 3.2 19.4
2011 9.6 9.3 0.7 0.0 3.2 19.6
2012 9.9 9.6 0.7 0.0 3.3 20.2
2013 10.2 9.9 0.7 0.0 3.4 20.8
2014 10.6 10.3 0.7 0.0 3.6 21.6
2015 10.9 10.5 0.7 0.0 3.7 22.2
2016 11.2 10.8 0.8 0.0 3.8 22.7
2017 11.3 10.9 0.8 0.0 3.8 22.9
2018 11.4 11.0 0.8 0.0 3.9 23.2
2019 11.6 11.2 0.8 0.0 3.9 23.7
2020 11.9 11.5 0.8 0.0 4.0 24.2
Source - pitt&sherry

8.5 Energy End Use - Hospitals


The analysis of energy end use in hotels is restricted to electricity and natural gas, as
the data sets included no information on the end use of other fuels. Also, the limited
time series and small sample size meant that any change in end –use trends could not be
determined. Therefore the results below report averages over the 1999-2012 period.

Figure 8.2 below shows the electrical end use shares for hospitals over all periods,
noting that end-use shares are based on a sample size of 41. HVAC dominates end-use
shares, accounting for 47% of total electrical use, with other electrical and lighting
account for 27% and 17%, respectively. The remainder end-uses account for less than
10% of total electrical use.

76
Figure 8.2 - Hospitals- Electrical End Use Shares, 1999 – 2012

27%

HVAC
Lighting
47%
Total Equipment
2% Domestic Hot Water
Other electrical process
7%

17%

.
Source - pitt&sherry

Figure 8.3 below shows the gas end use shares for hospitals over all periods. Gas end-use
shares are based on a relatively small sample size of 9. ‘Other’ (unresolved energy end
uses) account for almost half (46%), and space-heating accounts for 32% of total gas use.
Of the remaining end uses, domestic hot water (12%) uses the most gas.

Figure 8.3 - Hospitals-Gas End Use Shares, 1999 – 2012

32%
Space Heating
Domestic Hot Water
46%
Pool heating
Sterilisation equipment
Other gas use

12%

6% 3%
.
Source - pitt&sherry

8.6 State and Territory Estimates - Hospitals


State and territory estimates for energy consumption by fuel, and greenhouse gas
emissions, are calculated for hospitals, by region and year. A summary table is shown,
while the full data is contained in the NRBuild model.

The ‘default’ estimates are calculated by applying the state, territory and regional time
series for the total hospital stock to the national average energy intensity time series

77
and fuel mix estimates (which may be time series or averages, depending upon data
availability). These values are reported below. Total energy consumption by state and
territory, for 1999, 2009 and 2020, are set out in Table 8.3.
Table 8.3 - Hospital Energy Consumption by State and Territory

(PJ) 1999 2009 2020


NSW 5.7 6.3 7.4
VIC 3.5 4.1 5.3
QLD 3.4 3.8 5.3
WA 2.5 2.3 3.1
SA 1.4 1.7 2.0
TAS 0.3 0.3 0.4
ACT 0.2 0.3 0.4
NT 0.2 0.3 0.3
Total: 17.1 19.1 24.2
Source - pitt&sherry

8.6.1 State, Territory and Regional Energy Intensity Calculation – Hospitals


The NRBuild model calculates total energy and individual fuel intensities for each state,
territory, region and time period, subject to data availability. However, the overall
sample size (for all the data sets) is generally too small for the evolution of energy
intensity (or fuel mix) at the level of each state, territory or region to be determined
accurately.

However, where sufficient data is available, we report energy intensities by


state/territory, as an average over the 1999 – 2012 time period, along with the
underlying sample size. These may provide useful comparisons, but care should be
exercised in their interpretation due to limited statistical significance. Also, the
intensity per square metre may vary according to the type of hospital. Therefore
variations in the average energy intensities between states and territories may arise
because the types of hospitals sampled between states and territories are.

The results are summarised in Table 8.4. Where no values are shown for
states/territories, this indicates that either no data was available for that state,
territory or region, or otherwise the data sample that fell below the minimum noted
(>=10). The national average energy intensity of capital cities hospitals is 1,415
MJ/m2.a which is about 15% lower than the national average energy intensity of regional
hospitals. There is only about a 15% difference between the capital city with the
highest average energy intensity (NSW 1,454 MJ/m2.a) and the lowest (SA 1,259
MJ/m2.a). On the other hand, the average energy intensity of regional hospitals ranges
between 1,039 MJ/m2.a in NSW to 1,684 MJ/m2.a in the NT, a difference of about 62%.

Note that the statistical confidence in the difference in energy intensities between
locations is analysed in Appendix E.

78
Table 8.4 - Public Hospitals, Average Energy Intensity by State, Territory and Region (n >=
10/year), 1999 – 2012

Average
Energy
State Region Sample
Intensity
(MJ/m2.a)
Capital
NSW 1,454 28
City
NSW Regional 1,039 21
VIC Capital city 1,393 67
VIC Regional 1,677 271
SA Capital city 1,259 10
NT Regional 1,684 18
Sub-totals:
Aust. Capital city 1,415 123
Aust. Regional 1,657 322
Aust. All 1,536 445
Source - pitt&sherry

8.7 Conclusions - Hospitals


This study has provided a starting point insight into the energy performance of major
hospitals in Australia. The key limitation is a lack of data. As highlighted in Table 8.4,
coverage of the states and territories is uneven, with significant gaps in the time series.

It is noted that there is uncertainty about the definition of ‘hospitals’, with different
approaches used by different states and territories and the AIHW. We also examined
floor area per hospital bed estimates by state and found a wide dispersion of results. It
is likely that this reflects differences in floor area definitions more than anything else.
As with universities (see Chapter 10), however, further research would be required to
achieve greater confidence.

The study has captured some data on smaller hospitals and clinics, and it may be
feasible to construct modules to represent their energy performance within NRBuild.
We have noted that the data appears to segment into major hospitals, with high energy
intensity, and a group of ‘base’ or regional hospitals which – even where these are quite
large in terms of floor area or beds – tend to have much lower energy intensity. It is
likely that data on the extent of energy intensive equipment, surgery theatres and also
occupancy levels in these hospitals would be required to determine their underlying
energy performance with confidence.

79
9. Schools
9.1 Introduction
This chapter presents key findings and underlying assumptions for schools, as modelled
in NRBuild. No energy data was obtained for private schools. Based on the energy data
captured for public schools, average energy intensity figures were calculated which
were applied to all (public and private) stock to estimate total energy consumption and
greenhouse gas emissions.

9.2 Stock Estimates - Schools


The stock of school space in Australia has been estimated by BIS Shrapnel, drawing on
estimation techniques summarised in Chapter 3, with further detail in Appendix C.

Public schools
Public school floor space has been sourced largely from relevant state and territory
education authorities. As was done for the estimation of hospital floor space, the data
provided was normalised to account for definitional and reporting differences between
the jurisdictions. However, it is acknowledged that this definitional adjustment is
inexact. Typically, there was limited direct information on the capital city/regional
split of floor space, so this has been estimated on the basis of the relative school age
populations.

Independent and Catholic schools


Floor space has been estimated by multiplying the number of students by the assumed
floor space per student. The average floor space per student depends on the type of
school but ranges between 8m2 per student and 16m2 per student. Typically, there was
limited direct information on the capital city/regional split of floor space, so this has
been estimated on the basis of the relative school age populations.

The assumed floor space per student was adjusted to take into account the increase in
building activity during the Building the Education Revolution (BER) program, which
commenced in 2009 and ran for about 2 years.

School floor area forecasts


Forecast of school floor space are based on the forecast growth in the school age
population. In the base year of 2009, schools are estimated to have comprised some
39.3 million m2 across Australia as a whole (see Table 11.1). Historically, the stock grew
at about 1.4% between 1999 and 2011, and is projected to grow at slightly slower rate,
some 1.3%, from 2011 to 2020.

While New South Wales comprises the largest share of all school stock by state or
territory, Melbourne comprises the largest share of school stock by capital city. NSW’s
share is expected to fall slightly over the 2009 to 2020 period, from 31.4% to 29.5%,
while over the same period, the shares of Queensland and Western Australia are
expected to increase, from 17.6% to 19.9% (QLD) and from 10.7% to 12.9% (WA).

80
Table 9.1 - School Stock (public and private) by State and Region, 1999 to 2020 (‘000 m2 NLA)

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Sydney 6485 6611 6693 6790 6930 7143 7263 7342 7338 7431 7573 7688 7814 7835 7881 7948 8021 8108 8202 8302 8410 8513

Other NSW 4277 4341 4369 4412 4489 4613 4677 4724 4688 4702 4741 4788 4864 4859 4871 4888 4908 4930 4959 4987 5016 5043

Melbourne 6603 6656 6722 6792 6865 6925 6979 7025 7077 7135 7238 7419 7596 7693 7805 7932 8045 8180 8318 8463 8607 8754

Other Victoria 2887 2899 2913 2914 2915 2915 2913 2913 2913 2908 2916 2954 2995 3004 3018 3033 3041 3058 3079 3101 3121 3148

Brisbane 2457 2482 2512 2556 2605 2690 2728 2780 2909 2873 2994 3143 3313 3358 3431 3522 3607 3695 3792 3887 3982 4075

Other Queensland 3135 3165 3194 3242 3287 3296 3349 3430 3608 3760 3912 4102 4324 4367 4438 4534 4639 4732 4822 4912 5001 5086

Perth 2436 2439 2459 2561 2621 2673 2712 2786 2851 2980 3036 3133 3206 3276 3363 3458 3547 3639 3737 3837 3935 4037

Other WA 991 991 994 1028 1046 1062 1078 1104 1125 1167 1174 1199 1210 1223 1245 1268 1291 1313 1337 1361 1386 1411

Adelaide 2114 2110 2122 2095 2041 1987 1957 2091 2262 2321 2348 2278 2184 2194 2217 2245 2275 2304 2337 2370 2403 2436

Other SA 880 874 873 858 835 815 809 865 936 958 964 932 885 882 882 884 884 887 889 893 896 899

Hobart 466 465 457 454 453 453 450 449 446 444 446 455 464 469 475 481 486 490 495 501 506 511

Other Tasmania 672 675 664 660 658 655 653 649 642 638 638 638 644 642 639 638 634 631 629 629 628 627

ACT 794 793 791 788 787 782 780 780 777 772 782 795 810 820 827 836 848 859 869 880 890 901

Darwin 232 235 233 232 233 234 237 239 246 253 266 281 286 289 294 300 306 313 320 327 335 344

Other NT 194 195 194 193 194 195 198 199 203 205 221 219 223 223 225 228 231 233 237 241 245 249

Aust. 34622 34932 35192 35575 35958 36438 36781 37375 38021 38548 39248 40024 40817 41134 41611 42194 42763 43370 44023 44690 45360 46033

Source - BIS Shrapnel

81
9.3 Energy Intensity - Schools
Energy and fuel intensities for schools are calculated for each year drawing on 6475 data
records that relate to 1641 schools (the largest data set of the building types included in
this study), as well as the total energy and total square metres of the NSW public
schools from 2001-2010. However, there was no energy data for TAS, VIC, WA or SA for
any year.

Figure 9.1 shows the average annual energy intensity for schools for the years 2000 to
2011, based on a very good sample size, albeit one that does not include all states. The
trend line shows that average energy intensity increased about 7% from 168 MJ/m 2.a in
2001 to 180 MJ/m2.a in 2011, with the maximum deviation from the line of best fit being
16 MJ/m2.a (less than 10%). There is some evidence that energy intensity may have
been falling since around 2009, but data from the missing states would be required to
confirm this as a national trend.

Other results are available from the NRBuild model, although as we try to resolve
smaller geographical units (individual states, territories and regions within them),
confidence in the results decreases. However, where there is a high level of confidence
in the results, e.g. for NSW, that average energy intensity figure could be applied to
schools in other states which experience a similar climate, and for which there no or
very little data, with a certain level of confidence.

Figure 9.1 - Average Energy Intensity, Schools, Australia


.

300

250 y = 1.1967x - 2226.2


R² = 0.189
200

150
MJ/m2

All Schools
100
Linear (All Schools)
50

0
1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

Year
Source - pitt&sherry

9.4 Total Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions -


Schools
Table 9.2 shows that total energy consumption for schools (public and private) in the
base year of 2009 is estimated at some 7.0 PJ, a 22% increase over the 1999 value of 5.7
PJ. This is projected to increase steadily to just over 8.8 PJ in 2020 under current
trends.

In 2009 greenhouse gas emissions associated with school energy use are estimated at 1.8
Mt CO2-e, which are projected to rise to 2.3 Mt CO2-e in 2020. In 1999, natural gas and
electricity accounted for 28% and 72% of total energy use, respectively. In 2010, natural
gas use decreased to 9% and electricity use increased to 91% of total energy use, with
those fuel use proportions projected to remain steady to 2020.

82
Table 9.2 - Total Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Schools, 1999-2020

GHG
Electricity Natural Gas LPG Use Diesel/Oil Total Energy
Schools: Emissions
Use (PJ) Use (PJ) (PJ) Use (PJ) Use (PJ)
(Mt CO2-e)
1999 4.1 1.6 0.0 0.0 1.3 5.7
2000 4.2 1.6 0.0 0.0 1.3 5.8
2001 4.3 1.6 0.0 0.0 1.4 5.9
2002 4.3 1.7 0.0 0.0 1.4 6.0
2003 4.3 1.9 0.0 0.0 1.4 6.1
2004 4.6 1.7 0.0 0.0 1.4 6.3
2005 4.7 1.7 0.0 0.0 1.5 6.4
2006 5.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 1.5 6.5
2007 5.4 1.2 0.0 0.0 1.6 6.7
2008 5.9 0.9 0.0 0.0 1.7 6.8
2009 6.1 0.9 0.0 0.0 1.8 7.0
2010 6.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 1.9 7.2
2011 6.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 1.9 7.4
2012 6.8 0.7 0.0 0.0 2.0 7.5
2013 6.9 0.7 0.0 0.0 2.0 7.6
2014 7.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 2.0 7.8
2015 7.2 0.8 0.0 0.0 2.1 7.9
2016 7.3 0.8 0.0 0.0 2.1 8.1
2017 7.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 2.2 8.3
2018 7.6 0.8 0.0 0.0 2.2 8.4
2019 7.8 0.8 0.0 0.0 2.3 8.6
2020 8.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 2.3 8.8
Source - pitt&sherry

9.5 Energy End Use - Schools


Due to limited data, the analysis of energy end use in schools is restricted to the ACT
and to electricity and natural gas only. Furthermore, because of that limited data
sample, it was not possible to construct significant time series trends for energy end
use, and therefore the data presented represent averages over the 1999 – 2012 period.

Figures 9.2 and 9.3 below shows the average electricity and average gas end-use shares
for ACT schools, which are based on a total sample of 334 data points. Lighting and
equipment dominate the electrical end-use shares, accounting for 40% and 30%
respectively on average. HVAC accounts for a significant 27% of electrical energy use on
average, while domestic hot water makes up 4% of the total school electricity energy
use on average. HVAC also accounts for the overwhelming majority (92%) of gas end-use
shares with domestic hot water making up the remaining 8%.

It is expected that energy end use shares in some other states/territories would quite
different to those indicated for the ACT. A significant proportion of ACT schools’ energy
is used for space-conditioning, most of which is for heating (gas). On the other hand, in
the NT there is little or no heating needed but a significant cooling requirement which
relies on electricity.

83
Figure 9.2 - ACT Schools, Electrical End Use Shares, 1999 – 2012

4%

27%

30%
HVAC
Lighting
Total Equipment
Domestic Hot Water

40%
.
Source - pitt&sherry

Figure 9.3 - ACT Schools, Natural Gas End Use Shares, 1999 – 2012

8%

Space Heating
Domestic Hot Water

92%
.
Source - pitt&sherry

9.6 State and Territory Estimates - Schools


State and territory estimates for energy consumption by fuel, and greenhouse gas
emissions, are calculated for schools, by region and year.

The ‘default’ estimates are calculated by applying the state, territory and regional time
series for the schools stock to the national average energy intensity time series and fuel
mix estimates (which may be time series or averages, depending upon data availability).
These values are reported below.

Total energy consumption by state and territory, for 1999, 2009 and 2020, are set out in
Table 9.3.

84
Table 9.3 - Schools Energy Consumption by State and Territory

(PJ) 1999 2009 2020


NSW 1.8 2.2 2.6
VIC 1.6 1.8 2.3
QLD 0.9 1.2 1.8
WA 0.6 0.7 1.0
SA 0.5 0.6 0.6
TAS 0.2 0.2 0.2
ACT 0.1 0.1 0.2
NT 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total: 5.7 7.0 8.8
Source - pitt&sherry

9.6.1 State/Territory Energy Intensity Calculation - Schools


It was noted above that the NRBuild model also calculates total energy and individual
fuel intensities for each state, territory, region and time period, subject to data
availability. For NSW and QLD there was an excellent sample size (noting that in this
case the ‘sample’ is for total aggregated energy consumption and floor space of the
public school stock, rather than for individual schools) and time series to allow for
accurate estimations of energy intensity to be made over a number of years. Similarly
for the ACT and the NT, sample sizes were high, however, the time series of the samples
was shorter than for NSW and QLD. The energy intensities of these states and
territories, as an average over the 1999 – 2012 time period, along with the underlying
sample size are presented in Table 9.4. In this case, meaningful comparisons can be
made because of the statistical significance of the underlying data.

Where no values are shown, this indicates that either no data was available for that
state, territory or region, or otherwise the data sample fell to or below 10. Note that
unlike for other building types covered in this study for which capital city and regional
energy intensities are reported separately, average energy intensities for schools are
presented for whole of state/territory. This is because, as mentioned above,
aggregated whole of state data was obtained which did not distinguish between capital
city and region.

Table 9.4 - Public Schools, Average Energy Intensity by State, Territory and Region (n >=
10/year), 1999 – 2012

Average Energy
State Intensity Sample Size
(MJ/m2.a)
NSW 168 All schools (aggregated data)
QLD 159 4,760 (all schools)
SA 166 11
ACT 443 326
NT 410 997
Aust. 174 6,094
Source - pitt&sherry

85
Table 9.4 shows that the national average energy intensity of public schools is 174
MJ/m2.a. A comparison of the average energy intensities of NSW, QLD, ACT and NT, all
of which have statistically significant results, shows that NSW and QLD schools are less
than half as energy intensive as ACT and NT schools. The most likely reason for the
disparity between these states and territories is that NSW and QLD schools use much less
energy for space-conditioning than ACT and NT schools. While there is energy-end use
data for the ACT, which has been discussed, energy-end use data for the other state and
territories would be useful to accurately describe differences in energy intensity.

Note that the statistical confidence in the difference in energy intensities between
locations is analysed in Appendix E.

9.7 Conclusions - Schools


This study has brought together a substantial body of data regarding the energy use of
schools in Australia, with 6,475 data records that relate to 1,641 schools. However,
there is no energy data for Tasmania, Victoria, WA or SA for any year. Further, end use
breakdowns were only available in the ACT. Given colloquial evidence of widely
differing practices in different states – in particular, the extent to which schools are air
conditioned – it is difficult to form a complete view about energy use in school buildings
with data from four states missing.

86
10. Tertiary Education Buildings
10.1 Introduction
This section examines the energy consumption of tertiary education buildings in
Australia. For the most part, the analysis deals with ‘precinct’ level information for
Vocational Education and Training (VET) campuses (also known as TAFEs in some states)
and university campuses. Depending upon the data source, individual buildings are not
always resolved in reporting of total energy consumption and floor area. Some data on
individual buildings within campuses is captured in the NRBuild model, although this
data is generally treated as confidential. We note that precinct level data fails to
distinguish between functionally diverse building types, from lecture theatres to physics
laboratories, although the energy intensity of these building types is likely to vary
greatly. Further, the energy data sources compiled for this study do not resolve the
intensity of use of buildings, such as annual hours of use/operation, although this is
likely to vary considerably between buildings, tertiary institutions and possibly states
and territories.

10.2 Stock Estimates - Tertiary Education


A stock model for tertiary education floor area was constructed by BIS Shrapnel, drawing
on a wide range of data sources. As with most of the stock estimates, these are based
on a ‘net lettable area’ equivalent concept, although there is significant uncertainty
about the conceptual basis used in underlying data sources. A commonly used metric in
universities is ‘Usable Floor Area’ (UFA), which means areas “directly used for Teaching
and Research or support purposes”. 29 However a recent presentation to the Tertiary
Education Facilities Management Association (TEFMA) Space Management Workshop,
noted that eight tertiary institutions surveyed “…did not define or interpret their data
codes in the same way or undertake benchmark reporting in the same way”, and that
the results “varied so much that it wouldn’t be possible to use them accurately to
complete the annual TEFMA benchmark survey…”.30 Examples of inconsistent reporting
included the treatment of canteens, refectories, childcare facilities, circulation spaces,
corridors and foyers, noting that many of these spaces may sometimes be used as
‘informal learning spaces’ in addition to their primary functions.

VET
Public VET floor space is calculated using data provided by educational authorities for
states and territories where available. A proxy based on student numbers is used where
actual floor space data is not available, and for private VET providers. The National
Centre for Vocational Education Research provides data on VET student numbers. The
floor space for VET is estimated using the number of students and an average of the
floor space per student of 3-6m2 per student. VET space forecasts are based in large
part on analysis of the VET participation of the population by 5 year age group and
forecast demographic trends.

29
S. Jones and J. Schumann, TEFMA Space Planning Guidelines and Go8 Data Dictionary, March 2011, accessed
online at http://leishman-
associates.com.au/tefmaspace2011/downloads/IntroductiontoSpaceDefinitionsWorkshop_000.pdf on 3 May
2012.
30
ibid.

87
Table 10.1 - Stock Estimates, TAFE/VET Floor Area, 1999 – 2020, ‘000m2

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Sydney 1,071 1,077 1,063 1,051 1,051 1,052 1,032 1,092 1,063 1,063 1,058 1,061 1,066 1,071 1,077 1,084 1,090 1,096 1,102 1,108 1,114 1,120

Other NSW 985 989 979 967 967 972 955 1,013 973 954 950 952 957 961 966 972 977 983 988 994 999 1,004

Melbourne 1,143 1,143 1,157 1,174 1,189 1,180 1,150 1,150 1,167 1,189 1,240 1,290 1,300 1,310 1,320 1,334 1,345 1,357 1,369 1,381 1,394 1,406
Other
795 798 808 819 835 818 803 803 797 812 816 828 835 841 848 856 864 871 879 887 895 903
Victoria
Brisbane 482 493 495 498 506 499 499 498 503 506 513 522 526 531 537 546 555 564 572 580 589 597
Other
694 710 712 732 734 733 739 737 734 726 735 748 754 761 771 783 796 808 820 832 844 856
Queensland
Perth 352 361 378 370 371 366 372 360 359 371 397 423 428 434 442 451 459 466 474 482 489 497

Other WA 125 128 133 130 132 134 136 137 140 148 170 173 175 177 180 184 187 190 193 197 200 203

Adelaide 381 383 387 396 406 422 435 431 426 425 416 406 407 407 407 410 412 413 415 417 419 421

Other SA 145 145 146 147 149 148 152 150 149 149 149 152 153 152 153 154 154 155 156 156 157 158

Hobart 52 52 52 54 57 59 63 67 70 71 73 74 74 74 73 73 73 73 73 72 72 72
Other
81 83 85 89 94 99 104 108 112 114 120 123 123 123 122 122 122 122 121 121 120 120
Tasmania
ACT 82 83 85 86 88 93 95 97 101 103 107 109 110 110 111 112 112 113 113 114 115 116

Darwin 15 15 16 15 15 15 16 16 16 17 19 20 20 20 21 21 22 22 22 23 23 23

Other NT 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 38 38 39 36 37 37 38 39 39 40 40 41 42 42

Aust. 6,435 6,494 6,530 6,562 6,628 6,623 6,582 6,691 6,648 6,686 6,802 6,917 6,964 7,009 7,066 7,142 7,208 7,272 7,338 7,403 7,470 7,537

Source - BIS Shrapnel

88
Table 10.2 - Stock Estimates, University Floor Area, 1999 – 2020, ‘000m2

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Sydney 1,157 1,157 1,300 1,385 1,436 1,416 1,404 1,465 1,548 1,664 1,858 1,970 2,077 2,128 2,178 2,231 2,284 2,338 2,394 2,451 2,510 2,570

Other NSW 486 486 546 612 664 675 690 702 730 765 816 860 895 916 938 959 982 1,005 1,028 1,052 1,076 1,101

Melbourne 1,171 1,171 1,316 1,404 1,469 1,524 1,535 1,595 1,720 1,835 1,998 2,110 2,222 2,275 2,329 2,383 2,440 2,497 2,556 2,616 2,678 2,741

Other Victoria 269 269 302 332 358 378 379 403 437 457 471 483 504 516 528 540 552 565 578 591 605 619

Brisbane 617 617 693 740 759 763 771 798 836 859 931 1,019 1,070 1,095 1,121 1,147 1,174 1,202 1,230 1,259 1,288 1,318

Other Queensland 348 348 391 411 422 471 555 571 518 506 569 587 616 632 647 662 678 694 711 728 746 764

Perth 548 548 616 654 716 734 760 790 811 868 968 1,036 1,086 1,112 1,139 1,166 1,194 1,223 1,252 1,282 1,313 1,344

Other WA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Adelaide 375 375 421 433 463 491 491 514 548 567 598 626 653 669 684 700 717 733 750 768 786 804

Other SA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 4 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hobart 129 129 145 154 156 190 183 183 188 178 179 184 192 196 201 205 210 215 220 225 230 235

Other Tasmania 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 4 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

ACT 270 270 304 327 355 252 228 228 216 229 356 352 366 375 383 392 401 410 420 429 439 449

Darwin 189 189 212 231 210 139 100 100 82 76 84 78 82 83 85 87 89 91 93 96 98 100

Other NT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Aust. 5,561 5,561 6,247 6,686 7,011 7,034 7,099 7,353 7,640 8,011 8,837 9,312 9,763 9,997 10,233 10,474 10,721 10,974 11,233 11,498 11,769 12,047

Source - BIS Shrapnel

89
Universities
Actual university floor space data is available for 17 universities, including most of the
major universities on a GFA basis. This was adjusted to an NLA basis. Where floor space
data is unavailable, floor space has been estimated using data on the number of internal
full-time students, sourced from Department of Education, Employment and Workplace
Relations and an estimated usable NLA per internal full-time student ratio of 14-15m2
per student. The backcast estimates have been derived using information on internal
full time student numbers.

10.2.1 Stock Estimates - VET


Table 10.1 provides the stock estimates for VET floor area by state, territory and region
for the period 1999 to 2020. In the base year of 2009, it is estimated that there were
almost 6.7 million m2 of VET building floor area in Australia, only 4% more than the 1999
estimate of around 6.4 million m2. 56% of the stock is located in capital cities.

Over the period 2009 to 2020, somewhat faster growth in floor area of 14% over the
period is expected (reflecting an expectation of increasing participation and
population). This would see total floor area reaching some 7.6 million m 2 by 2020.

10.2.2 Stock Estimates - Universities


Table 10.2 presents the stock estimates for university floor area. In 2009, we estimate
there were around 8.8 million m2 of university floor area across Australia. In contrast to
TAFE campuses, some 79% of the floor area is located in capital cities. Also in contrast
to TAFEs, the floor area of universities grew very rapidly over the 1999 to 2009 period,
by 59%, representing a cumulative annual growth rate of 4.7% on average. The
projections for 2020 show continued and reasonably rapid growth, albeit at the more
modest pace of 2.5% per year on average, to reach almost 12.4 million m 2 by 2020.

10.3 Energy Intensity - Tertiary Education Buildings


The analysis of energy and fuel intensity in tertiary buildings is based on 1277 data
records, relating to 388 individual buildings. Over all periods, the data coverage
includes more than 14 million m2 of floor area although, some of this floor area
represents time series data for the same building. The VET data provides significant
observations over the 2003 to 2010 period (total n=148), but is geographically restricted,
relating mostly to WA, SA, NSW and Tas in that order, with no data on the other states.
Data from the early part of this time series is dominated by one state, WA. The
universities data set is larger (total n=1,238), provides significant results observations
over the 2001 – 2011 period, and covers most regions except Perth and the NT.

10.3.1 Energy Intensity - VET Buildings


Figure 10.1 shows that, on average, the trend in energy intensity in VET buildings over
the period 2003 – 2010 has been quite flat at around 365 MJ/m2.a. A slightly declining
trend may have been evident in the absence of the 2010 result which, due to the limited
sample size in that year (n=41), is being dragged upwards by results from one climate
zone, Adelaide. With additional data capture, particularly for the ‘missing’ states noted
above, a more robust trend may be able to be established. The outlier result in 2010
also contributes to a very low ‘R2’ value, indicating a reasonable degree of ‘scattering’
of data points around the trend. However, we note that annual variability around the
trend never exceeds 37 MJ/m2.a, or around 10% of the average value.

90
Figure 10.1 - Average Energy Intensity, VETs, Australia, 2003 – 2010

450
400
350 n>=9
300
250
MJ/m2.a

200
150 Linear
100 (n>=9)
50
0 R² = 0.0002

2019
1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017
Year

Source - pitt&sherry

10.3.2 Energy Intensity - University Buildings


Figure 10.2 shows the trend over 2001 to 2011 in the national average energy intensity
of university buildings in Australia. It shows a modest increase through time, rising from
an estimated 780 MJ/m2.a in 1999 to around 869 MJ/m2.a by the base year of 2009. The
minimum sample that informs this trend in each year is 49 data records. As with other
regressions for average energy intensity, the R2 value is very low, and in this case there
are significant outlier values (eg, 2008) that vary by around 25% from the trend line.

Figure 10.2 - Average Energy Intensity, Universities, Australia, 2001 – 2011

1,200
1,000
800
MJ/m2.a

600
n>=49
400
Linear (n>=49)
200 R² = 0.041
0
1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

Year .
Source - pitt&sherry

An investigation of the causes of the apparent instability in the average energy intensity
of university buildings through time has revealed that the primary cause is that the mix
of different building sub-types within the data sample changes from year to year. The
energy data includes the sub-type ‘laboratories’ within the overall ‘universities’ building
type. Individual laboratories vary very widely in their energy intensity (in our data set,
between 10 MJ/m2.a to over 7,500 MJ/m2.a), depending largely on their type/purpose
(the low values are often ‘agricultural research stations’, for example). As the energy
intensity data captured for this study is essentially a random sample in each year, the
mix of building sub-types within any given sample can vary, leading to significant
changes in the measured average energy intensity. This indicates that the model should
resolve these building subtypes separately, with separate stock and energy intensity
observations. For further statistical analysis, refer to Appendix E.

91
10.4 Total Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions -
Tertiary Education
10.4.1 VET Buildings
Table 10.3 summarises total energy use by fuel and greenhouse gas emissions associated
with VET buildings in Australia. Total energy consumption in the base year of 2009 was
around 2.5 PJ, and indeed this figure has been largely static over the period from 1999.
This reflects the slow growth in the stock of such buildings, together with the flat trend
in energy intensity noted above. Total energy consumption is projected to rise slowly,
reaching around 2.8 PJ in 2020. Greenhouse gas emissions are also largely static at
around 0.6 Mt CO2-e. The average fuel mix in VET buildings is dominated by electricity,
at around 81% (see
Figure 10.3), with the majority of the balance accounted for by natural gas (17%) and
minor use of LPG (2%).

Table 10.3 - Total Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Vocational Education
and Training (VET) Buildings, Australia, 1999 – 2020

GHG Total
Tertiary - Electricity Natural Gas Diesel/Oil
LPG Use (PJ) Emissions Energy
VET: Use (PJ) Use (PJ) Use (PJ)
(Mt CO2-e) Use (PJ)
1999 1.9 0.40 0.05 0.00 0.6 2.4
2000 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.4
2001 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.4
2002 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.4
2003 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.4
2004 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.4
2005 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.4
2006 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 2.5
2007 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.4
2008 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 2.5
2009 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 2.5
2010 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 2.5
2011 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 2.6
2012 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 2.6
2013 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 2.6
2014 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 2.6
2015 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.6 2.6
2016 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.6 2.7
2017 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.7 2.7
2018 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.7 2.7
2019 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.7 2.7
2020 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.7 2.8
Source - pitt&sherry

92
Figure 10.3 - VET Buildings– Fuel Shares, Australia 2010

2%
17%

Electricity
Gas
LPG

81%

.
Source - pitt&sherry

10.4.2 Universities
Table 10.4 shows that in the base year of 2009, estimated total energy use for university
buildings was around 7.7 PJ, a substantial 79% increase over 1999. By 2020, total energy
consumption is projected to increase by a further 50%, to reach around 11.6 PJ.

Table 10.4 - Total Energy Consumption by Fuel and Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Universities,
Australia, 1999 – 2020
Natural GHG
Tertiary Electricity LPG Use Diesel/Oil Total Energy
Gas Use Emissions
(University): Use (PJ) (PJ) Use (PJ) Use (PJ)
(PJ) (Mt CO2-e)
1999 3.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 1.0 4.3
2000 3.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 1.0 4.4
2001 3.4 1.5 0.0 0.0 1.1 5.0
2002 3.7 1.7 0.0 0.0 1.2 5.4
2003 3.9 1.8 0.0 0.0 1.3 5.7
2004 4.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 1.3 5.8
2005 4.1 1.8 0.0 0.0 1.3 5.9
2006 4.2 1.9 0.0 0.0 1.3 6.2
2007 4.5 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 6.5
2008 4.7 2.1 0.0 0.0 1.5 6.9
2009 5.3 2.4 0.0 0.0 1.6 7.7
2010 5.6 2.5 0.1 0.0 1.7 8.2
2011 5.9 2.7 0.1 0.0 1.8 8.6
2012 6.1 2.7 0.1 0.0 1.9 8.9
2013 6.3 2.8 0.1 0.0 2.0 9.2
2014 6.6 2.9 0.1 0.0 2.0 9.6
2015 6.8 3.0 0.1 0.0 2.1 9.9
2016 7.0 3.1 0.1 0.0 2.2 10.2
2017 7.2 3.2 0.1 0.0 2.2 10.5
2018 7.5 3.3 0.1 0.0 2.3 10.9
2019 7.7 3.5 0.1 0.0 2.4 11.3
2020 8.0 3.6 0.1 0.0 2.5 11.6
Source - pitt&sherry

93
This growth reflects both the rapid expansion of university floor area historically, which
is projected to continue albeit at a more moderate pace, along with rising energy
intensity. We note there is uncertainty about both of these key drivers. University
enrolments – particularly by overseas students – have declined in recent years, while
significant efforts are being made by most campuses to improve their energy efficiency.
In 2009 greenhouse gas emissions associated with energy use in university buildings are
estimated at 1.6 Mt CO2-e, and are projected to rise to some 2.5 Mt CO2-e in 2020.

The average fuel mix is expected to remain steady throughout the entire period at
around 71% electricity and 28% natural gas, with minor use of LPG (see Figure 10.4).

Figure 10.4 - University Buildings Fuel Shares, Australia, 2009

Electricity Natural Gas LPG

1%

28%

71%

.
Source - pitt&sherry

10.5 Energy End Use - Universities


The data compiled for this study included a limited number of end-use breakdowns
(n=96). This information was limited to electrical end use, and the values reported
represent averages over the 1999 – 2012 time period.

Figure 10.5 shows the average electricity end-use shares. Heating, ventilation and air
conditioning (HVAC) dominates at around 50%, while lighting (18%), equipment (15%) and
process energy use (e.g., in laboratories, 15%), account for the majority of the balance.

Figure 10.5 - Universities- Electrical End Use Shares, Australia, 1999 – 2012

15%

2%
HVAC
Lighting
15% 50% Total Equipment
Domestic Hot Water
Other electrical process

18%

Source - pitt&sherry

94
10.6 States and Territory Estimates - Tertiary Education
10.6.1 Vocational Education and Training
As noted in Section 12.3.1 above, the overall data sample for VET buildings available to
this study was limited, with a total of 148 records used in the model. The sample is
weighted towards WA and SA, with very limited for NSW and TAS and no data for the
other states and territories. As a result, it is difficult to draw any conclusions about
relative energy intensities between states, territories and regions. Nevertheless, the
data suggests that capital city VET buildings are on average somewhat more energy
intensive than those in regional areas, at around 470 MJ/m 2.a as compared to around
370 MJ/m2.a for the latter. Tasmania appears to be much more energy intensive than
other states, at over 800 MJ/m2.a, although this is based on a single campus accounting
for around 10% of the estimated stock in that state.

Table 10.3 provides an overview of the NRBuild estimates for total energy consumption
by states and territories for VET buildings. Estimates are based on the national average
energy intensities reported above as the default, distributed by state according the
stock shares shown in Table 10.1. As with other building types, the NRBuild model
allows the user to test alternative values for energy intensity, including by state.
Estimate for greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption by fuel for the
intervening years and by region within states and territories are also available in the
model.

Table 10.5 - Vocational Education and Training Buildings, Total Energy Consumption by State,
1999, 2009, 2020

(PJ) 1999 2009 2020


NSW 0.8 0.7 0.8
VIC 0.7 0.8 0.8
QLD 0.4 0.5 0.5
WA 0.2 0.2 0.3
SA 0.2 0.2 0.2
TAS 0.0 0.1 0.1
ACT 0.0 0.0 0.0
NT 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total: 2.4 2.5 2.8
Source - pitt&sherry

10.6.2 Universities
The data sample available to this study for universities was considerably larger than for
VET buildings, thanks to excellent co-operation from a number of Australian universities,
with 1,238 records in total. The sample covers all states, territories and regions except
Perth and the Northern Territory. A data sample of at least 49 was available for each
year between 2001 and 2011. Despite this, the data sample was not large enough to
establish separate time series trends for energy intensity by state, territory and region.

However, if we examine the average energy intensities over the whole period at that
level of resolution, we note that capital city universities appear to be more than twice
as energy intensive, on average, as those in regional areas, at over 860 MJ/m2.a (n=757)
compared with around 420 MJ/m2.a (n=481) for the latter. Universities in Victoria
appear to be the most energy intensive, at over 1,100 MJ/m 2.a, although the sample is
small (n=10), while the ACT also reports a similar value (n=13). Adelaide also reports an
above average energy intensity of around 900 MJ/m2.a (n=111). Tasmania’s average
energy intensity is below the national average, at around 700 MJ/m 2.a in the capital
(n=160) and less than 600 MJ/m2.a in regional areas (n=189).

95
Estimates of total energy consumption by state are shown in Table 10.5. Estimates for
energy consumption by fuel and region are also available in the NRBuild model, along
with greenhouse gas emissions.

Table 10.6 - University Buildings, Total Energy Consumption by State, 1999, 2009, 2020

(PJ) 1999 2009 2020


NSW 1.3 2.3 3.5
VIC 1.1 2.1 3.2
QLD 0.8 1.3 2.0
WA 0.4 0.8 1.3
SA 0.3 0.5 0.8
TAS 0.1 0.2 0.2
ACT 0.2 0.3 0.4
NT 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total: 4.3 7.7 11.6
Source - pitt&sherry

10.7 Conclusions - Tertiary Education


A key conclusion of this study is it is necessary to resolve functionally distinct building
types and end uses to understand or model accurately the energy consumption of
tertiary education buildings in Australia. Precinct level estimates (such as average
energy intensity across an entire campus) represent a useful starting point, but such
estimates mask very significant diversity in the energy intensity of different building
types.

In particular, we note that laboratories are often more energy intensive that the
average results reported above, however we also find extreme variability in this energy
intensity. Further research would be required to attribute this finding to the various
likely causes, including differing laboratory types, differing end-use of energy (from
growing seeds to particle accelerators), and differing intensity of use (eg, hours per
year), along with more generic factors such as climate. While laboratories were not
identified as a building type for this study, we have nevertheless captured useful data
on their energy intensity, and also estimated the stock of such buildings, and therefore
it should be feasible to create a laboratories module in NRBuild in the future.

As with other building types, data on energy end use in tertiary education buildings is
poor. In this study, only two VET building records included end use breakdowns, and
while there were are larger number for universities, these breakdowns did not include
natural gas.

In terms of energy data, we noted that data on universities is largely sufficient, with the
exception of a few states. However, VET building energy performance data is missing
for many states and territories, and this reduces the validity of national energy and
greenhouse estimates.

This study has also noted that there is very considerable uncertainty regarding estimates
of ‘usable floor area’ in tertiary buildings. This uncertainty, however, is being
addressed by the Tertiary Education Facilities Management Association. This is
expected to improve reporting consistency in future, and will also enable floor area
estimates in our stock model to be reviewed.

96
11. Public Buildings
11.1 Introduction
This chapter presents key findings and underlying assumptions for public buildings, law
courts and correctional centres, as modelled in NRBuild. The scope of public buildings
covered includes museums, galleries and libraries. As discussed below, however, there
was only a limited data sample on each and therefore they have been modelled as a
single ‘public buildings’ type. Law courts were modelled separately, and while stock
estimates for correctional centres are presented, no usable energy intensity data on
such centres was captured in this study and therefore this building type is not modelled.

11.2 Stock Estimates - Public Buildings


Museums
The museum floor space estimates are based on data from the Sydney Floor Space and
Employment Survey, the Melbourne Census of Land Use and Employment Survey and the
Perth Land Use and Employment Survey as well as data from individual museums where
available. In addition, the DCCEE publishes information on the floorspace of
Commonwealth operated museums, which was used. This method means that the floor
space data for the main museums is included in the museum floor space estimates but
that the floor space for a large number of smaller museums is excluded. The large
number of different data sources also means that definitional issues are likely to
significantly affect state comparisons of floor space.

Galleries
The gallery floor space estimates have been compiled using a similar methodology to
that for museums. The estimates are based on a combination of data from the Sydney
Floor Space and Employment Survey, the Melbourne Census of Land Use and Employment
Survey and the Perth Land Use and Employment Survey as well as data from individual
museums where available, and data from the DCCEE for Commonwealth operated
galleries. This method means that the floor space data for the main galleries is included
in the museum floor space estimates but that the floor space for a large number of
smaller galleries is excluded. As for museums, the large number of different data
sources means that definitional issues are likely to affect state comparisons of floor
space.

Libraries
The floor space estimates for libraries are based on a number of different data sources.
Where possible, information is sourced for the main national and state libraries on a site
basis. ABS Cat 8561.0 includes information on the number of local government libraries
and employment in local government libraries, which has been used to generate
estimates for the floor area of local government libraries. The trend in library floor
space is forecast to be flat.

Table 11.1 shows that public buildings (museums, galleries and libraries together) are
estimated to have comprised some 1.8 million m2 NLA across Australia in the base year
of 2009. There was limited information from which to develop historical public building
stock estimates. The floor stock estimates have been adjusted for known
developments, but otherwise the stock is assumed to be constant to 2020. New South
Wales comprises the largest share (23.5%) of the public buildings by state.

97
Table 11.1 - Public Building Stock by State and Region, 1999 to 2020 (‘000 m2 NLA)

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Sydney 335 335 335 335 335 335 335 335 335 335 335 335 335 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 340

Other NSW 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85

Melbourne 278 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358

Other Victoria 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38

Brisbane 122 122 122 127 127 127 127 127 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153

Other Queensland 90 90 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91

Perth 217 217 217 217 217 217 217 217 217 217 217 217 217 217 217 217 217 217 217 217 217 217

Other WA 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34

Adelaide 138 138 138 138 138 138 138 139 139 139 139 139 139 139 139 139 139 139 139 139 139 139

Other SA 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19

Hobart 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 33 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38

Other Tasmania 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11

ACT 211 211 211 211 215 219 219 223 226 213 232 240 240 240 240 240 240 240 240 240 240 240

Darwin 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24

Other NT 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

Total Aust. 1,639 1,719 1,720 1,725 1,729 1,733 1,732 1,738 1,766 1,753 1,772 1,780 1,790 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800

Source - BIS Shrapnel

98
Table 11.2 - Law Court Stock by State and Region, 1999 to 2020 (‘000 m2 NLA)

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Sydney 168 168 168 168 168 168 168 168 168 172 172 172 172 174 176 179 181 184 186 188 191 193

Other NSW 117 117 117 117 117 117 117 117 117 117 117 117 117 118 119 121 122 123 124 125 126 128

Melbourne 176 176 176 176 176 176 176 176 176 176 176 176 176 179 182 185 189 192 195 199 202 205

Other Victoria 27 28 28 28 28 29 29 29 30 30 30 31 31 32 32 32 33 33 33 34 34 35

Brisbane 38 38 38 38 38 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99

Other Queensland 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 40 41 41 42 43 44 45 46 47

All WA 117 117 117 117 117 118 117 114 112 144 142 142 142 145 149 153 157 160 164 168 172 176

Adelaide 72 72 72 72 75 79 82 82 81 84 82 82 82 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90

Other SA 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11

Hobart 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9

Other Tasmania 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

ACT 196 196 196 196 196 196 196 202 206 206 206 206 206 209 211 214 217 219 222 225 227 230

Darwin 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 24

Other NT 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6

Total Aust. 998 998 999 999 1,002 1,009 1,010 1,014 1,016 1,055 1,053 1,053 1,054 1,128 1,144 1,161 1,177 1,193 1,210 1,226 1,242 1,259

Source - BIS Shrapnel

99
Table 11.3 - Correctional Centre Stock by State and Region, 1999 to 2020 (‘000 m2 NLA)

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Sydney 172 179 190 196 197 200 214 221 225 231 240 239 247 250 253 257 261 264 268 272 275 279

Other NSW 102 106 113 116 116 118 126 131 132 136 140 139 143 145 146 148 150 151 153 154 156 158

Melbourne 77 83 88 93 99 100 98 99 110 114 118 123 127 128 131 133 135 137 139 141 143 145

Other Victoria 30 32 34 35 37 37 36 37 41 42 43 44 45 46 46 47 47 48 48 49 49 49

Brisbane 89 98 102 99 112 114 112 108 103 104 117 121 121 121 121 121 121 121 121 121 121 121

Other Queensland 110 120 125 121 137 135 134 129 125 125 141 146 158 174 174 174 174 174 174 174 174 174

Perth 78 83 87 97 108 109 111 112 112 112 114 114 118 120 124 127 130 134 137 141 144 148

Other WA 29 30 32 35 39 39 40 40 40 40 40 40 41 42 43 45 46 47 48 49 49 50

Adelaide 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 49 49 49 49 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 51 51

Other SA 58 58 58 58 58 59 59 60 60 60 60 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 62 62

Hobart 14 14 17 17 18 17 16 17 21 22 22 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21

Other Tasmania 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

ACT 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 6 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

Darwin 12 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 16 19 19 20 20 27 27 27 34 34 34 34

Other NT 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14

Total Aust. 837 882 927 949 1,003 1,009 1,030 1,036 1,054 1,072 1,122 1,148 1,181 1,209 1,221 1,242 1,254 1,265 1,284 1,296 1,309 1,322

Source - BIS Shrapnel

100
Law Courts
The estimates of floor space for courts have been made using various data sources and
methodologies. For example, for the Commonwealth and some states there is published
data on the floor space of courts. Also, the Sydney Floor Space and Employment Survey
and the Melbourne Census of Land Use and Employment Survey include data on court
floor space. Data was also obtained on a site specific basis for some courts, depending
on availability.

Where data on court floor space was not available, information on the number of courts
and also population ratios were used to create an estimate of court floor space. For
regional court houses, floor space was assumed to average 750 m2 per law court.

Table 11.2 indicates that the floor area attributable to law courts in Australia comprised
around 1,000,000m2 in 2009. The forecasts for law courts reflect adjustments for known
projects, but otherwise assume that floor space is projected to remain steady. On that
basis, only modest annual growth in this floor area of around 2% is expected over the
period to 2020, reaching just under 1,300,000 m2 by that date.

Correctional Centres
We note that the phrase ‘correctional centre’ does not appear to be well defined. The
Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has developed national standards for corrective
services statistics to ensure the comparability of data between states and territories,
although it notes that some issues with jurisdictional comparability remain due to
different legislative and administrative recording practices in the states and
territories.31 We have adopted the convention that correctional centres are facilities
designed to house persons remanded or sentenced to adult custodial corrective services
agencies in each state and territory in Australia. Excluded from this definition are
police lock-ups, police prisons and cells in court complexes, immigration detention
centres, home detention programs, military prisons, mental health facilities and
juvenile facilities.

The basis for the floor space estimates for correctional centres varied between states
and territories. For some states there is published data on the floor space of prisons
and in some cases there is partial data drawn from surveys such as the Perth Land Use
and Employment Survey. Where this data is unavailable for states/territories,
information on prisoner capacity, sourced from the Productivity Commission, is used as
the basis for estimating prisoner floor space using an average space of 40m 2 per prisoner
capacity. The forecasts for floor space are driven by data on prisoner numbers by 5 year
age group and demographic projections.

Estimates for the floor area of correctional centres by state and region are shown in
Table 11.3. In the base year of 2009, around 1.1 million m2 of correctional centres
existed in Australia. The historical estimates of floor space are based on sourced data
or, where unavailable, proxied using information on prisoner capacity. Floor area is
expected to grow to just over 1.3 million m2 by 2020.

11.3 Energy Intensity - Public Buildings


11.3.1 Museums, Galleries and Libraries
Energy and fuel intensities are calculated for each year drawing on 235 data records
relating to a sample of 28 actual public buildings. While the building sample is
reasonably small, there are time series records available for many of these buildings
through the 1999 to 2012 period. The sample, however, relates mostly to buildings in
NSW, SA, the ACT and NT.

31
ABS Catalogue No 4517.0 – Prisoners in Australia 2008.

101
Figure 11.1 shows the average annual energy intensity for public buildings for the years
2001-2011, including linear regressions for the period back to 1999 and forward to 2020.
The results shown are based on area-weighted average energy intensities for all regions
in Australia, for each year in which the sample size (n) was at least 9. In the base year
of 2009, the average energy intensity of public buildings in Australia is indicated to be
just over 1,000 MJ/m2.a.

It can be seen, however, that the trend is for a steady fall in the energy intensity of
public buildings over time. The results show a reasonable R2 value of 0.623, with the
maximum deviation from the trend being 50 MJ/m2.a. As the trend is based on a
relatively small sample size, further data capture would be required to establish trends
with greater confidence. The libraries within this data set appeared to be less energy
intensive than the average public building, at just under 600 MJ/m2.a, although this
result is based on a limited sample (n=14). Museums and galleries also appear to sub-
divide into two sets: the larger, national institutions which have higher energy
intensity, and smaller private galleries (and buildings such as aviation or motor
museums) with quite low energy intensity. This suggests that ideally these building
types would be modeled separately.

Figure 11.1 - Public Building Average Energy Intensity, Australia, 2001 - 2010 (MJ/m2.a)

1,200
Total n
value, all
1,000 periods: 227

800 R² = 0.623
MJ/m2.a

600 n>=9
Linear (n>=9)
400

200

0
2015
1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2017

2019

Year
Source - pitt&sherry

11.3.2 Law Courts


The sample of law courts examined for energy intensity calculations comprised two data
types. First, some 341 records were compiled relating to identified court buildings
across most states and territories (except regional areas of Vic, WA and SA) over the
1999 – 2011 period. In 2009, these data records covered a total of some 43,000 m 2 of
actual courts in Australia. Second, we were able to access some ‘agency level’ data
that provided total fuel consumption and floor area for the entire Australia-wide
portfolio of courts relating to the Family Court of Australia, Law Courts Ltd, the
Administrative Appeal Tribunal and Fair Work Australia. This data is not broken down by
state, but in total covered the energy consumption of an additional 45,000 m 2 of actual
court space in Australia in 2009. Thus the total data sample covered around 10% of
court floor area in 2009 and a higher share in earlier years (18% in 2001, for example).

102
The average energy intensity of law courts in Australia in 2009 was around 550 MJ/m2.a,
almost half the figure for other public buildings above (see Figure 11.2). The trend line
over time indicates a modest increase in intensity, however the correlation between
energy intensity and years is weak. This means that the trend line cannot be used to
indicate or predict change in intensity with a high level of confidence. It should be
noted that the results shown reflect a weighted average of the individual and agency-
level data sets, as the two differed significantly (the agency level data averaged some
330 MJ/m2.a over the whole period). Very few data records provided information on
intensity of use of these buildings, such as hours of sitting time per week or per year,
but it possible that variations in sitting hours contributed to differences in measured
energy intensity.

Figure 11.2 - Average Energy Intensity, Law Courts, Australia, 1999 - 2011

700

600

500 R² = 0.2952
MJ/m2.a

400
n>=6
300
Linear (n>=6)
200

100

0
1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

Year
Source - pitt&sherry

Also, the data (excluding agency level data, which is not differentiated by region)
suggests that courts in capital cities are considerably more energy intensive, on
average, than those in regional areas, at around 650 MJ/m2.a compared to around 415
MJ/m2.a for the latter. The apparent jump in average energy intensity in 2007, shown
in Figure 11.2, at least in part represents that data points for that year relate mostly to
capital city courts (96% of the floor area in the sample in that year, compared to an all-
periods average of around 85% of the sample).

11.4 Total Energy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Public Buildings


11.4.1 Museums, Galleries and Libraries
Table 11.4 shows that, in base year of 2009, the estimated total energy use for public
buildings (excluding law courts) was around 1.7 PJ. This figure is slightly less than in
1999, as the reduction in energy intensity of public buildings over this period more than
offsets the slow growth in the stock. If these trends continue, total energy consumption
would fall further to around 1.4 PJ in 2020. Greenhouse gas emissions associated with
public building energy use in 2009 are estimated at 0.4 Mt CO2-e and are projected to
remain steady to 2020.

Energy Consumption by Fuel – Public Buildings


Table 11.4 indicates that in 1999 electricity and natural gas accounted for some 61% and
39% total public building energy respectively. Use of gas is shown to decrease through
time, leading to a steadily rising share of electricity within the overall fuel mix.
Unfortunately, only two data records provided end use breakdowns and thus it is not
clear what is driving this trend.

103
Table 11.4 - Public Buildings, Energy Consumption by Fuel, and GHG Emissions, 1999 to 2020,
Australia

Natural GHG
Public Electricity Diesel/Oil Total Energy
Gas Use LPG Use (PJ) Emissions
Buildings: Use (PJ) Use (PJ) Use (PJ)
(PJ) (Mt CO2-e)
1999 1.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.8
2000 1.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.9
2001 1.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.9
2002 1.2 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.8
2003 1.2 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.8
2004 1.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.8
2005 1.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.8
2006 1.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.7
2007 1.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.7
2008 1.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.7
2009 1.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.7
2010 1.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.7
2011 1.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6
2012 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6
2013 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6
2014 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5
2015 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5
2016 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5
2017 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5
2018 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4
2019 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4
2020 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4
Source - pitt&sherry

11.4.2 Law Courts


Table 11.5 indicates that, in the base year of 2009, total energy consumption in law
courts in Australia was around 0.6 PJ, about a 20% increase over the (low) 1999 base of
just around 0.5PJ. Further modest growth to around 0.8 PJ is expected by 2020.
Greenhouse gas emissions were similarly low, at around 100 kt CO 2-e in 2009.

Energy Consumption by Fuel – Law Courts


In term of fuel use, Table 11.5 indicates that law courts use close to 82% electricity, on
average, and over 18% natural gas. While not shown in this table, the data available to
NRBuild also indicates that very small amounts of LPG and diesel are used in courts, but
less than 1 MJ/m2.a, on average, of either fuel.

11.5 Energy End Use - Public Buildings


11.5.1 Museums, Galleries and Libraries
Energy end-use data was obtained for two public buildings only, which was not sufficient
to undertake any meaningful analysis of energy energy-use.

104
Table 11.5 - Total Energy Consumption, Fuel Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Law Courts,
Australia, 1999 – 2020

GHG
Law Electricity Natural Gas Diesel/Oil Total Energy
LPG Use (PJ) Emissions
Courts: Use (PJ) Use (PJ) Use (PJ) Use (PJ)
Mt CO2-e
1999 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5
2000 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5
2001 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5
2002 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5
2003 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5
2004 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5
2005 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5
2006 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5
2007 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5
2008 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6
2009 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6
2010 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6
2011 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6
2012 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6
2013 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7
2014 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7
2015 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7
2016 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7
2017 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7
2018 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8
2019 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8
2020 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8
Source - pitt&sherry

11.5.2 Law Courts


Data on energy end use in law courts was restricted to a sample of 45 data points over
the 1999 – 2011 period for electricity, and just 6 for gas. No information on the end use
of LPG or diesel was available. As with other building types, the small amount of end
use information available for law courts is barely adequate for policy analysis purposes.

Figure 11.3 shows that, on average, just under half of all electricity consumption in law
courts is for heating, ventilation and air conditioning, with lighting accounting for
around 28% and equipment around 14%.

105
Figure 11.3 - Law Courts- Electrical End Use Shares, Australia, 1999 - 2011

8%
3%

14% HVAC
Lighting
47%
Total Equipment
Domestic Hot Water
Other electrical process

28%

.
Source - pitt&sherry

Figure 11.4 shows – based on a very limited sample - that natural gas appears to be used
overwhelmingly for space heating, with minor end uses including domestic hot water
and cooking.

Figure 11.4 - Law Courts- Natural Gas End Use Shares, Australia, 1999 – 2011

2%
8%

Space Heating
Domestic hot water
Kitchen/ catering

90%
.
Source - pitt&sherry

11.6 State and Territory Estimates - Public Buildings


11.6.1 Museums, Galleries and Libraries
It was noted above that the NRBuild model also calculates total energy and individual
fuel intensities for each state, territory, region and time period, subject to data
availability. The energy intensities of these states and territories, as an average over
the 1999 – 2012 time period, along with the underlying sample size are presented in
Table 11.6. Meaningful comparisons are difficult to make because the nature and use
public buildings varies greatly. For example, a regional library or gallery is likely to be
far less energy intensive than a capital city museum.

106
Where no values are shown, this indicates that either no data was available for that
state, territory or region, or otherwise the data sample fell to or below 10. Note that
unlike for other building types covered in this study for which capital city and regional
energy intensities are reported separately, average energy intensities for schools are
presented for whole of state/territory. This is because, as mentioned above,
aggregated whole of state data was obtained which did not distinguish between capital
city and region.

Table 11.6 - Public Buildings, Average Energy Intensity by State, Territory and Region (where
n>= 10/year), 1999 – 2012

Average
Energy
State Region Sample
Intensity
(MJ/m2.a)

NSW Capital City 977 13


SA Capital city 670 51
ACT Capital city 1,094 110
NT Capital city 132 18
NT Regional 892 26
Subtotals:
Aust. Capital city 1,008 193
Aust. Regional 876 34
Aust. All 1,003 227
Source - pitt&sherry

State and territory estimates for energy consumption by fuel, and greenhouse gas
emissions, are calculated for public buildings, by region and year. Given the large
amount of data, a summary table is shown below, while the full data is contained in the
NRBuild model.

The ‘default’ estimates are calculated by applying the state, territory and regional time
series for the public building stock to the national average energy intensity time series
and fuel mix estimates (which may be time series or averages, depending upon data
availability). These values are reported below.

Total energy consumption by state and territory, for 1999, 2009 and 2020, are set out in
Table 11.7. For further details, including breakdown by fuel, intervening years and
greenhouse gas emissions, please refer to the NRBuild model.

Table 11.7- Public Buildings, Energy Consumption by State, 1999, 2009, 2020 (PJ)

(PJ) 1999 2009 2020


NSW 0.46 0.39 0.31
VIC 0.35 0.38 0.30
QLD 0.23 0.23 0.17
WA 0.27 0.23 0.18
SA 0.18 0.15 0.12
TAS 0.04 0.03 0.03
ACT 0.23 0.22 0.18
NT 0.03 0.03 0.02
Total: 1.79 1.65 1.31
Source - pitt&sherry

107
11.6.2 Law Courts
For law courts, the distribution of data by state was uneven, noting that the substantial
area of ‘agency level’ data on law court energy use was not disaggregated by state or
region and therefore was not available for this analysis. The results shown in Table 11.8
represent average energy intensity values over the 1999 – 2011 period. As noted above,
they show that capital city law courts are noticeably more energy intensive, on average,
than those in regional areas. Sydney, Canberra and Brisbane are amongst the higher
energy intensity results, at over 650 MJ/m2.a each, while those in the NT are amongst
the least energy intensive.

Table 11.8 - Law Courts, Average Energy Intensity by State (where n>=6/year), 1999 – 2011

Average
Energy
State Region Sample
Intensity
(MJ/m2.a)

Capital
NSW 706 95
City
NSW Regional 382 145
QLD Capital city 651 6
QLD Regional 539 23
SA Capital city 585 15
ACT Capital city 654 17
NT Capital city 408 6
NT Regional 487 28
Subtotals
Aust. Capital city 655 144
Aust. Regional 413 197
Aust. All 623 341
Source - pitt&sherry. NB: excludes ‘agency level’ data.

As the state and territory energy intensity data is incomplete, estimates of energy
consumption in law courts by state, territory and region are based on the national
average energy intensity trend noted above, distributed regionally using the stock
estimates shown in Table 11.2. State, territory and regional estimates for energy
consumption by fuel for all years, and also for greenhouse gas emissions, are available in
the NRBuild model.

Table 11.9- Law Courts, Energy Consumption by State, 1999, 2009, 2020 (PJ)

(PJ) 1999 2009 2020


NSW 0.13 0.16 0.19
VIC 0.08 0.10 0.11
QLD 0.00 0.02 0.06
WA 0.05 0.08 0.09
SA 0.03 0.05 0.05
TAS 0.00 0.00 0.00
ACT 0.06 0.10 0.08
NT 0.02 0.02 0.02
Total: 0.37 0.51 0.61
Source - pitt&sherry

108
11.7 Conclusions - Public Buildings
While it appears that public buildings, as defined, have been reducing their energy
intensity through time, the conclusions in this study are based on a limited sample, with
public buildings from Vic, Tas, WA and Qld not included in the data set. Second, it was
noted that there appear to be differing energy intensities within the set, with larger,
national institutions (galleries and museums) being more energy intensive, and libraries
and less formal museums (such as motor and aircraft museums) being much less energy
intensive. Ideally, these types of buildings would be modelled separately, although we
note that the total energy consumption in public buildings is low, suggesting this may
not need to be prioritised. Further, we note that this study has uncovered no
statistically significant end use information for public buildings. We understand the
Government Property Group may hold useful data with respect to public and
government-owned buildings, but this data was not made available to this study.

With respect to law courts, the analysis in this study is based on a large sample with
only regional areas of some states unrepresented. We have noted that the study
incorporates ‘agency level’ data that does not resolve individual buildings or states and
also shows a much lower energy intensity than other data sources. This data set (from
OSCAR) could be reviewed for accuracy, as recommended in Chapter 5.

Finally, with respect to correctional centres, we note that data limitations prevented
the construction of an energy module within NRBuild. Some data was captured for
three correctional centres, although none of these records was complete. We note that
with the co-operation of the states and territories, it should be possible to compile a
more complete data set for correctional centres in future.

109
Appendix A - Statement of Requirements

Appendix B - Bibliography

Appendix C - Model Documentation

Appendix D - Top-down Model Validation

Appendix E - Statistical Analysis

The above appendixes are in Part 2 of the publication.