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Institutional Equity Research

Industry Update

September 17, 2010 Off The Press

Sector Weighting: None


9th Annual Eastern Institutional
Investor Conference

All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated. 10-104698 © 2010

CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
CIBC World Markets Inc. required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
1 (416) 594-7000 See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
end of this report, or at the end of each section hereof, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
9th Annual Eastern Institutional Investor Conference - September 17, 2010

2
9th Annual Eastern Institutional Investor Conference - September 17, 2010

Companies Presenting
Aerospace & Defense Diversified Financial
Bombardier, Inc. Home Capital Group Inc.
CAE, Inc. Power Financial Corporation
TMX Group, Inc.
Airlines Western Financial Group
Air Canada
Jazz Air Income Fund Enterprise Software
Transat A.T. Inc. Constellation Software Inc.
WestJet Airlines Ltd. Descartes Systems Group Inc.

Asset Managers Insurance


AGF Management Limited Industrial Alliance Insurance And Financial Services Inc.
CI Financial Corp. Manulife Financial Corporation
Sun Life Financial Inc.
Automotive
Linamar Corporation Media
Magna International Inc. Cineplex Galaxy Income Fund
Corus Entertainment Inc.
Banks Quebecor, Inc.
Bank Of Montreal Torstar Corporation
Bank Of Nova Scotia Transcontinental Inc.
Canadian Imperial Bank Of Commerce Yellow Pages Income Fund
Canadian Western Bank
Laurentian Bank Of Canada Merchandising
National Bank Of Canada RONA Inc.
Royal Bank Of Canada
Toronto-Dominion Bank Multi-Industry
Brookfield Asset Management Inc.
Business & Professional Services
Aecon Group Inc. Property & Casualty Companies
Bird Construction Income Fund Genworth MI Canada Inc.
CGI Group Inc. Intact Financial Corporation
FirstService Corporation
GENIVAR Income Fund Road & Rail
IBI Income Fund Canadian National Railway Company
SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. Canadian Pacific Railway Limited

Capital Equipment Steel


IESI - BFC Ltd. Russel Metals Inc.
New Flyer Industries Inc.
Telecommunications & Cable Services
Consumer Products BCE Inc.
Dorel Industries, Inc. Bell Aliant Regional Communications Income Fund
Manitoba Telecom Services Inc.
Rogers Communications Inc.
(Company snapshots appear in alphabetical order.)

3
9th Annual Eastern Institutional Investor Conference - September 17, 2010

4
9th Annual Eastern Institutional Investor Conference - September 17, 2010

Director’s Overview
As has been the case in most years, much has transpired in the marketplace
during the past 12 months since our last institutional conference held in
Montreal. From an investor perspective, the past year would appear to have
been a reasonable one on a point-to-point basis as the current TSX level of
12,173 is up about 9% from last year at this time. On a North American basis,
our market has outperformed and on a global basis only Mexico, Brazil and
Stockholm have had a better run during the past 365 days. Of course, point-to-
point references fail to highlight the trading opportunities that have existed as
the TSX has experienced four declining periods greater than 5% and four
upswings averaging 8.2%. This volatility, while still meaningful, has been a
break from some of the extreme experience we have faced in the past couple of
years. In fact, as a tidbit, the first Montreal Investor Conference commentary I
provided as the DOR was in 2006, and unfortunately from an index value
perspective, not much has changed – point to point.

While in past years there has been a real penchant for the resource-based
stocks driving the Canadian market, this year a more diversified group have
contributed to the market’s rise in the last 12 months. While the materials group
has delivered 21% appreciation, so have the telecoms, while consumer-focused
stocks are up 10%-15% as a group as have the industrials. It is just this
diversification that we seek out in putting together our agenda for the Montreal
conference. Executive management teams from a total of 54 companies
spanning a variety of sectors including Financial Services, Communications and
Media, Transportation, Technology, Consumer Products and Industrial
Manufacturing, are presenting at our conference.

This special report contains a one-page synopsis of each company that will be
presenting. We have provided a brief update and our current forecasts for each
company currently under research coverage. We have also provided a general
description and historical data for those companies not under coverage.

We hope this report provides additional insight and perspective into some of
North America’s most interesting and attractive industries as well as the
companies that compete in them. On behalf of all of us at CIBC Wholesale
Banking, we hope the forthcoming presentations at the Westin in Montreal prove
to be interesting, insightful and continue to be a valuable tool in your investment
decision-making processes.

Quentin Broad
Managing Director, Canadian Equity Research

5
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Business & Professional Services

Aecon Group Inc.


Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Company Profile
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $16.00
ARE-TSX (9/13/10) $12.25 „ Aecon is one of Canada's largest construction companies, providing
Key Indices: None infrastructure (road building, heavy civil), buildings (institutional and
commercial) and industrial (mechanical) services to markets primarily in
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) 2.0% Ontario and Alberta.
52-week Range $10.06-$15.29
Shares Outstanding 54.5M
Float 53.4M Shrs „ The industrial division (oil sand/power generation) drove over two-thirds of
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 120,000 Aecon's earnings in 2008. When these contracts ended, margins in the
Market Capitalization $668.2M division fell. However, we believe that the division is now at an inflection
Dividend/Div Yield $0.20 / 1.6% point, with backlog up 58% year over year in Q2 and revenues up 22%.
Fiscal Year Ends December
Book Value $8.25 per Shr „ The company's buildings and infrastructure divisions are seeing growth,
2010 ROE (E) 10.0% benefiting from government stimulus funded infrastructure projects.
Net Debt ($150.0M)
However, the margins on these projects are well below those of industrial
Preferred Nil
division.
Common Equity $449.9M
Convertible Available No
„ Overall, we expect improving margins in the industrial division to drive
Earnings Per Share Current earnings momentum. Further upside is dependent on Aecon's ability to
2009 $0.80A reduce losses in its buildings division and its ability to obtain synergies from
2010 $0.76E the recent Cow Harbour acquisition. We rate Aecon SO with a $16 PT.
2011 $1.12E
P/E
2009 15.3x
2010 16.1x Stock Price Performance
2011 10.9x

EBITDA ($ mlns.)
2009 $128.2A
2010 $135.6E
2011 $199.5E
EV/EBITDA
2009 6.1x
2010 5.8x
2011 3.9x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Aecon Group Inc. is a leading Canadian construction
firm operating in the infrastructure, buildings and CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
industrial sectors, and also owns investments in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
infrastructure concessions. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.aecon.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Paul Lechem Stephanie Price, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-6429 1 (416) 594-7047
Paul.Lechem@cibc.ca Stephanie.Price@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Company Profile - September 17, 2010

Aecon Group Inc. (ARE-TSX) Sector Outperformer


Current Price: $12.25 Paul Lechem (416) 956-6429 paul.lechem@cibc.ca
12-18 Month Target: $16.00 Stephanie Price, CFA (416) 594-7047 stephanie.price@cibc.ca

All Figures in $ millions, except per share data


Key Statistics Investment Thesis
Share Price 12.25 Net Cash (Debt) (149.5)
Shares Outstanding 54.5 Enterprise Value 817.7 Aecon Group Inc. is a leading Canadian construction firm operating in the
Market Capitalization 668.2 infrastructure, buildings and industrial sectors, and also owns investments in
infrastructure concessions.
Key Multiples F2009A F2010E F2011E
The company is positioned well to benefit from government stimulus-driven
P/E 15.2x 16.1x 10.9x
infrastructure spending on transportation and transit (through its infrastructrue
EV/EBITDA 6.4x 6.0x 4.1x
division) and public facilities in healthcare, education, justice, etc. (through its
Peers (Average)
buildings division).
P/E 9.7x 9.3x 10.1x
EV/EBITDA 5.3x 5.7x 4.2x
Aecon's most profitable division - industrial - has been in a lull given a
slowdown in the Alberta oil sands and Ontario power generation construction,
Key Metrics F2009A F2010E F2011E and has presented a headwind to earnings growth. Recent activity in the oil
Gross Margin 10.8% 9.8% 11.0% sands suggests that this division may have turned a corner.
EBITDA Margin 5.7% 5.0% 6.6%
Net margin 2.0% 1.8% 2.5%
Cash Per Share 5.82 NA NA
Backlog By Division
Net Debt/EBITDA NA -1.25 -0.38 3,000
2,500
Income Statement F2009A F2010E F2011E 2,000
$mlns.

Sales 2261.0 2690.0 3002.0 1,500


Growth (y/y) 20.5% 19.0% 11.6%
1,000
Gross Profit 243.7 264.4 331.2
500
Operating Expenses 115.5 128.8 131.7
0
EBITDA 128.2 135.6 199.5
Amortization (48.4) (41.0) (50.0)
3 - 04

1- 0 5

3- 06

1 - 06

3- 0 8

1 - 08

0
1- 04

3- 05

3- 07

1- 07

3 - 09

9
00

01
20

0
F2

F2

F2

F2

F2

F2

F2

F2

F2
F2

F2

F2
Interest (17.8) (33.8) (40.3)
F
1-

1-
Q

Q
EBT 70.1 73.0 113.6 Infrastructure Buildings Industrial
Tax Expense (Recovery) (22.3) (21.4) (36.3)
Adj. Net Income (Loss) 44.4 48.7 75.2
Adj. FD EPS $0.80 $0.76 $1.12
EBITDA Margin By Division
14%
Free Cash Flow F2009A F2010E F2011E 12%
Cash Flow From Operations (6.1) (0.0) 143.2 10%
8%
Capital Expenditures (30.1) (34.1) (40.0) 6%
Free Cash Flow (36.2) (34.2) 103.2 4%
2%
Free Cash Flow Per Share NA NA $1.44 0%
-2%
-4%
Balance Sheet F2009A F2010E F2011E -6%
Cash & ST Investments 340.9 191.1 245.4
E
01

02

03

04

05

07

08

09
06

10

PP&E 200.9 391.1 391.1


20
20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

Total Assets 1689.3 1956.4 2058.1


Infrastructure Buildings Industrial
Recourse debt 238.1 360.5 321.9
Non-recourse debt 287.4 319.6 319.6
Total Liabilities 1227.0 1457.2 1492.1
Shareholder's Equity 457.4 492.5 557.3
Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

7
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Canadian Asset Managers

AGF Management Limited


Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Compelling Valuations; Need Fund Sales To
Sector Weighting:
Improve
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $20.50
AGF.B-TSX (9/13/10) $15.61 „ AGF manages $21.4 billion in retail AUM (11th largest in Canada) and $21.2
Key Indices: Toronto billion in institutional and high-net-worth AUM. The company also operates
a lending business with $3.4 billion of loans outstanding and that
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) NM contributed ~23% of pre-tax earnings over the last 12 months.
52-week Range $13.36-$19.25
Shares Outstanding 90.4M
Float 71.8M Shrs „ The company experienced net fund redemptions of $1,055MM 2010 YTD,
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 208,000 weaker than $315MM in net outflows during the same period in 2009. To
Market Capitalization $1,411.0M improve sales, AGF has launched several new mutual funds, stepped up its
Dividend/Div Yield $1.04 / 6.7% marketing efforts and targeted inclusion on third-party platforms.
Fiscal Year Ends November
Book Value $12.59 per Shr „ Reversing the sales trend could act as a significant positive catalyst for AGF.
2011 ROE (E) 12.9% While retail AUM is down 3% Y/Y as of Aug. 31, institutional and high-net-
LT Debt $162.2M
worth AUM is up 12%. The lending business has a tier 1 capital ratio of
Preferred Nil
14.4% and we estimate that it produced an ROE of 13% over the past year.
Common Equity $1,138.3M
Convertible Available No
„ AGF is trading at 9.2x 2011E EPS, a steep discount to Canadian comps at
Earnings Per Share Current an average of 13.7x. In our view, valuations are not adequately capturing
2009 $0.98A growth in institutional AUM and the well capitalized trust business with mid-
2010 $1.43E teen ROEs. We rate AGF Sector Outperformer with a $20.50 price target.
2011 $1.70E
P/E
2009 15.9x
2010 10.9x Stock Price Performance
2011 9.2x

EBITDA ($ mlns.)
2009 $219.5A
2010 $275.0E
2011 $305.4E
EV/EBITDA
2009 6.6x
2010 5.3x
2011 4.8x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
AGF Management Limited manages mutual funds in
Canada. It also operates a trust and international money CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
management subsidiary. its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.agf.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Paul Holden, CFA Kevin Cheng, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-8417 1 (416) 956-6676
Paul.Holden@cibc.ca Kevin.Cheng@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Compelling Valuations; Need Fund Sales To Improve - September 17, 2010

AGF Management (AGF.B-TSX) Sector Outperformer


Current Price : C$15.61 Paul Holden, CFA (416-594-8417) Paul.holden@cibc.ca
12- To 18- Mth Price Target: C$20.50 Kevin Cheng, CFA (416-956-6676) Kevin.cheng@cibc.ca
All figures in millions except per share data

P/E Multiples 2009A 2010E 2011E Investment Thesis

AGF Management Ltd 15.9x 10.9x 9.2x AGF Management is the least expensive Canadian asset manager in our coverage
Canadian Asset Managers (ex AGF) 17.9x 16.1x 13.7x universe at 9.2x our 2011E EPS, versus an average of 13.7x for the sector and a
U.S. Asset Managers 20.2x 15.5x 12.9x historical average of 14.0x. AGF is also the asset manager that provides the highest
dividend yield at 6.7% and free cash flow yield of 12.8% .
Key Financial Metrics ($ mns) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Institutional AUM continues to perform well rising 35.1% Y/Y vs mutual fund growth of
2.1% Y/Y. Institutional AUM growth should continue with 3 new mandates to be
EBITDA 313.7 219.5 275.0 305.4 launched in 2010 and the addition of new offices in Boston and Hong Kong.
ROE 11.8% 7.9% 11.3% 12.9% We believe that AGF trust may not be fully valued by the market given: 1) its tier 1
Dividends per Share 0.95 1.00 1.03 1.09 capital ratio (14.4% ) remains robust, 2) loss ratios have stabilized and 3) mid-teen
Average Mutual Fund AUM 26,346 20,663 21,748 21,931 ROEs. Using a conservative valuation of 1.0x book value, AGF trust is worth
Total AUM 35,558 44,618 45,306 49,587 approximately $2.43/share.
Gross Sales 3,579 2,607 2,788 3,312
Gross Redemptions 5,159 3,380 4,117 3,760 Chart 1: EBITDA Composition ($ mns)
Net Sales (1,580) (774) (1,329) (448)
Loan loss provisions 30.4 37.6 15.8 13.0 400 $357
$314
Income Statement ($ mns)* 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E 300 $275
$220

Revenue 725.6 586.1 632.1 665.9 200

Oper. Expenses 411.9 366.6 357.1 360.5


100
EBITDA 313.7 219.5 275.0 305.4
Amortization of deferred sales commissions 98.1 84.7 78.3 75.5
0
Other amortization 15.9 12.0 8.6 8.4 2007 2008 2009 2010E
EBIT 199.7 122.8 188.1 221.5
Investment Management Trust Company Other
Interest Expense 9.3 6.0 7.7 7.7
EBT 141.8 116.9 180.4 213.8
Tax Expense (Recovery) 12.7 28.4 50.5 59.9
Chart 2: Forward P/E*
Net Income 128.6 87.9 129.2 153.5
24
Operating EPS 1.41 0.98 1.43 1.70
20 +1 std dev
Free Cash Flow ($ mns) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E 16

12 Av erage
CFO before changes in NWC 278.7 206.1 243.3 250.4
86.8 54.5 61.1 76.2 8 -1 std dev
Less: Commissions Paid
Free Cash Flow 191.9 151.6 182.2 174.2 4
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Free Cash Flow Per Share 2.10 1.69 2.01 1.93 * Fo rward fiscal year
*Nov Year end

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

9
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Transportation

Air Canada
Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer –
Speculative Leveraged To A Recovery
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $5.00
AC.B-TSX (9/13/10) $2.51 „ Air Canada is Canada's largest airline and the largest provider of scheduled
Key Indices: Toronto passenger services in the Canadian market, the trans-border market and
the international market to and from Canada. In 2009, Air Canada carried
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) NM ~31 million passengers, servicing ~167 destinations worldwide.
52-week Range $1.03-$2.67
Shares Outstanding 274.0M
Float 185.3M Shrs „ Air Canada remains focused on containing costs through its Cost
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 279,198 Transformation Program and is targeting savings of $300 million (up from
Market Capitalization $687.7M $270 million previously) in 2010, eventually reaching an annual run rate of
Dividend/Div Yield Nil / Nil $530 million by the end of 2011 (up from $500 million previously).
Fiscal Year Ends December
Book Value $4.63 per Shr „ The growth opportunities for Air Canada stem from long-haul business as it
2010 ROE (E) NM looks to increase flights into Asia and leverage its status as the number one
LT Debt $3,972.0M
foreign carrier in the U.S., to drive throughput at its Toronto hub and to
Preferred Nil
attract more U.S. air passenger demand for international travel.
Common Equity $1,269.0M
Convertible Available No
„ Air Canada is a leveraged play to a recovery in the airline cycle but our SO-
EBITDA ($ mlns.) Current S rating reflects its higher debt levels, higher pension obligations and older
2009 $344.0A fleet. Air Canada's recent debt refinancing has provided additional flexibility
2010 $973.0E and will reduce cash flow obligations by $406 million from H2/10 to 2014.
2011 $1217.0E
EV/EBITDA
2009 9.6x
2010 3.4x Stock Price Performance
2011 2.7x

Earnings Per Share


2009 ($0.26A)
2010 ($0.18E)
2011 $0.73E
P/E
2009 NM
2010 NM
2011 3.4x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Air Canada is the largest scheduled air transportation
provider in Canada, serving domestic, trans-border and CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
international destinations. its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.aircanada.ca Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Jacob Bout, CFA Kevin Chiang
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-6766 1 (416) 594-7198
Jacob.Bout@cibc.ca Kevin.Chiang@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Leveraged To A Recovery - September 17, 2010

Air Canada (AC/B - TSX)


Current Price: C$2.51
12- To 18-Month Price Target: C$5.00
All figures in C$ million, except per share data
December 31 year end $25 Share Price
$20
Share Price $2.51
52 Week High $2.67 $15
52 Week Low $1.03 $10
Shares Outstanding (mln) 278 $5
Market Cap. (mln) $698 $0

Nov-06

Feb-07

May-07

Aug-07

Nov-07

Feb-08

May-08

Aug-08

Nov-08

Feb-09

May-09

Aug-09

Nov-09

Feb-10

May-10
Key Multiples 2009 2010E 2011E
Air Canada P/E NM NM 3.4x
Peer P/E 46.2x 19.7x 9.5x
Air Canada EV/EBITDA 9.8x 3.5x 2.8x Company Description
Peer EV/EBITDA 10.4x 4.7x 3.9x Air Canada is Canada’s largest full-service airline and the largest provider of
Air Canada P/CF 6.0x 1.3x 1.1x scheduled passenger services in the Canadian market, the Canada-U.S.
Peer P/CF 21.4x 9.3x 7.1x transborder market and the international market to and from Canada.
Operating Ratios 2009 2010E 2011E
In 2009, Air Canada carried ~31 million passengers, providing passenger service to
Operating Margin -3.2% 2.6% 4.7%
~167 destinations worldwide. The carrier also generates revenue from cargo
Return On Equity -1.7% -9.3% 38.2%
services provided by Air Canada, and from tour operator services provided by Air
Current Ratio 0.88 0.84 0.84
Canada Vacations.
Quick Ratio 0.70 0.73 0.72
LT Debt To Total Capitalization 73.7% 89.2% 87.2%
Investment Thesis
Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
1. Focus on reigning in costs - Cost Transformation Program (CTP) targeting
Income Statement 2009 2010E 2011E $530 million in annual savings by end of 2011.
Sales 9,739 10,621 11,259
EBITDA From Operations 344 973 1,217 2. Labour relations - all is clear for now - Air Canada and its labour unions
Earnings From Operations (24) (48) 206 agreed to a 21 month contract extension effective July 2009.
FD EPS From Operations (0.26) (0.18) 0.73
Cash Flow 2009 2010E 2011E 3. Pension reprieve - Canadian government adopted the Air Canada 2009
CFPS 0.42 1.92 2.32 Pension Regulation which fixed Air Canada's pension payments from 2010-2013.
FCFPS (1.31) 1.45 1.83
4. Focusing on higher yield customers by expanding premium services -
Balance Sheet Q2/10
Premium seats are ~6x more profitable than economy seats.
Cash + ST Investments 1,815
Current Assets 3,053
5. Overseas competition - Biggest challenge from Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airw
PP&E 6,054
Total Assets 10,440
6. Expanding international network / leveraging the Star Alliance
Current Liabilities 3,339
LT Debt 3,972
Management
Total Liabilities 8,994
Mr. Calin Rovinescu - President & CEO
Shareholders' Equity 1,446
Mr. Duncan Dee - EVP & COO
Operating Statistics Q2/10 Mr. Michael Rousseau - EVP & CFO
Fuel Price Per Litre (Cents) 71.1 Mr. Benjamin Smith - EVP & CCO
Fuel Consumption (Mln L) 924 Ms. Lise Fournel - SVP & CIO
Total Aircraft 328 Mr. Kevin C. Howlett - SVP Employee Relations
# Of Employees ('000) 23.1 Mr. David Legge - SVP Operations
Fleet Utilization (Hours/Day) 9.7 Ms. Susan Welscheid - SVP Customer Service
Fleet Length (Miles) 853

Passenger Revenue (2009) FTE Employee/Aircraft


120
Other
8% 118
Pacific 116
10% Canada
114
43%
Atlantic 112
20%
110

US Transborder 108
19% 2006 2007 2008 2009

RASM & CASM (cents) Total ASM

6500
18
6000
16
5500
(mlns)

14
5000
12
4500
10
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3E Q1E Q3E 4000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

RASM (cents) CASM ex-fuel (cents) 2008 2009

Source: Bloomberg, company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

11
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Banks

Bank Of Montreal
Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Improving Credit & Retail Banking Are Key Drivers
Sector Weighting:
In F2011
Overweight
12-18 mo. Price Target $66.00
BMO-TSX (9/13/10) $61.78 „ BMO is the fourth-largest Canadian bank by market cap, with assets of $402
Key Indices: TSXFinSv billion as at Q3/F10. In the L4Q, it derived 58% of core earnings from P&C
Banking, 28% from Capital Markets and 14% from Private Client. This
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) 8.0% excludes Corporate, which reported a loss of $404 million over that time.
52-week Range $49.56-$65.71
Shares Outstanding 562.9M
Float 562.9M Shrs „ Although very weak trading revenue weighed on BMO's Q3/F10 results,
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 1,852,000 earnings have been showing solid momentum over the past several
Market Capitalization $34,773.4M quarters, aided by falling loan losses. Capital ratios have also improved with
Dividend/Div Yield $2.80 / 4.5% Tier 1 now at 13.5% and tangible common equity at 10.4%.
Fiscal Year Ends October
Book Value $33.13 per Shr „ Our view on this name has been that the combination of above-average
2010 ROE (E) 15.6% leverage to improving credit and strong performance in retail banking
LT Debt $3,747.0M
positions it well relative to its peers. Notwithstanding a disappointing FQ3,
Preferred $2,571.00M
we believe this thesis is intact.
Common Equity $18,646.0M
Convertible Available No
„ BMO valuation multiples have continued to steadily improve over the past
Earnings Per Share Current few months. The company's forward P/E multiple is slightly below its peer
2009 $4.20A group, and trading 3% pts. below its 10-year average premium of 4%. We
2010 $4.80E rate BMO Sector Outperformer.
2011 $5.42E
P/E
2009 14.7x
2010 12.9x Stock Price Performance
2011 11.4x

Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Bank of Montreal is one of Canada's leading financial
institutions. It competes in P&C Banking, Wealth CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
Management and Investment Banking, predominantly in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
Canada and the U.S. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.bmo.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Robert Sedran, CFA Mehmed Rizvanovic, CFA investment decision.
1 (416) 594-7874 (416) 594-7283 See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
Robert.Sedran@cibc.ca Mike.Rizvanovic@cibc.ca
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Meny Grauman, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-3723
Meny.Grauman@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Improving Credit & Retail Banking Are Key Drivers In F2011 - September 17, 2010

BANK OF MONTREAL
All Figures in $ millions, except per share data (excl. one-time items)
KEY MULTI PLES F2009A F2010E F2011E OUR THESIS
P/E Multiple 14.7x 12.9x 11.4x We believe that BMO continues to have above-average exposure to falling loan loss provisions; a
Peer average 12.7x 11.5x powerful catalyst that will be an important growth driver through our forecast period. While trading
results in the most recent quarter were well below our forecast, we still expect this revenue line to settle
Q3-10
above pre credit crunch levels. We currently have a Sector Outperformer rating on the stock with a $67
P/BVPS 1.9x
price target.
Peer average 2.1x
OPERATING PERFORMANCE F2009A F2010E F2011E SEGMENTED EARNINGS CONTRIBUTION
Core cash EPS $4.20 $4.80 $5.42
150%
Annual EPS growth (9.7% ) 14.2% 12.9%
Core cash ROE 13.2% 14.8% 15.6% 2%
63%
Efficiency ratio 61.0% 60.6% 60.3% 100% 41% 19%
Operating leverage (YoY) (0.4% ) 1.3% 2.1% 35% 16%
15%
20%
CREDIT METRICS F2009A F2010E F2011E 18%
(1) 50%
Loan loss rate 0.86% 0.59% 0.41% 56%
65% 70%
45%
F2009A Q3-10
0%
Gross impaired loans 3,297 3,128 -17% -5%
-44%
Specific ACLs 596 577
Total ACLs 1,902 1,879 -50%
(2)
Classical Coverage ratio 58% 60% F2007A F2008A F2009A Q3-10
Specific ACLs to GILs 18% 18%
General ACLs as % of Gross Loans & BAs 0.77% 0.74% Personal & Commercial Banking Private Client Group BMO Capital Markets Corporate Support

KEY EARNI NGS DRIVERS F2009A F2010E F2011E FORWARD P/E MULTIPLE RELATIVE TO PEER GROUP (based on consensus estimates)
Core net interest income 5,397 5,967 6,340
130%
% change 4.5% 10.6% 6.2% 10-y ear Av erage Relativ e Fwd P/E: 104% Current Relative Fw d P/E: 101%
(3) 120%
Total capital markets related revenue 2,863 2,468 2,471
% change 20.2% (13.8%) 0.1% 110%
Provision for credit losses 1,543 1,006 725
% change 44% (35%) (28%) 100%

Non-interest expenses 7,263 7,463 7,641 90%


% change 5.8% 2.8% 2.4%
80%
CAPI TAL MEASURES F2009A F2010E F2011E
70%
Tier 1 capital ratio 12.2% 13.7% 14.3%
Sep-01

Sep-03

Sep-05
Sep-00

Sep-02

Sep-04

Sep-06

Sep-07

Sep-08

Sep-09

Sep-10
Tangible common equity to RWA 9.2% 10.5% 11.1%
Tangible common equity to tangible assets 4.0% 4.1% 4.3%
Current Relativ e P/E 6-month Moving Av erage
Risk Weighted Assets 167,201 157,753 162,539 Plus 1 Standard Deviation Minus 1 standard Dev iation

LOAN BOOK F2009A F2010E F2011E P/BVPS MULTIPLE RELATIVE TO PEER GROUP
Residential mortgages 45,524 47,450 48,890 130%
Non-residential mortgages 6,727 7,843 8,081 10-y ear Av erage Relative P/B = 89% Current Relativ e P/B = 87%
120%
Consumer instalment & other personal 45,824 50,114 51,634
Credit cards 2,574 3,329 3,430 110%

Business and government 61,442 61,077 62,930 100%


Gross Loans 162,091 169,813 174,965
90%
Acceptances 7,640 6,954 7,236
Total Gross Loans & Acceptances 169,731 176,767 182,201 80%

70%
N otes : 60%
(1) PC Ls as a % of av erage net loans and acceptances (ex cl. repos ).
Sep-01

Sep-10
Sep-00

Sep-02

Sep-03

Sep-04

Sep-05

Sep-06

Sep-07

Sep-08

Sep-09

(2) Total ACLs as a % of GILs.


(3) Ex cludes gains /(losses ) on inv estm ent sec urities.

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

13
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Banks

Bank Of Nova Scotia


Stock Rating:
Sector Performer
Solid Strategic Positioning Supports Premium
Sector Weighting:
Valuation
Overweight
12-18 mo. Price Target $55.00
BNS-TSX (9/13/10) $53.69 „ BNS is the third-largest Canadian bank by market cap, with assets of $523
Key Indices: TSXFinSv billion as at Q3/F10. Over the past year, BNS derived 46% of earnings from
Canadian Banking, 24% from International, 29% from Scotia Capital. This
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) 9.0% excludes Corporate, which showed a loss of $759 million over that time.
52-week Range $43.49-$53.78
Shares Outstanding 1,038.0M
Float 1,038.0M Shrs „ The Q3/F10 earnings miss was driven by weaker trading revenue and
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 2,329,000 higher-than-forecast fixed expenses. Our estimate for this bank calls for
Market Capitalization $55,730.2M below-average earnings growth in F2011, which reflects the fact that its
Dividend/Div Yield $1.96 / 3.7% better performance through the downturn leaves less of a recovery profile.
Fiscal Year Ends October
Book Value $21.68 per Shr „ In our opinion, BNS merits a premium based on its strong performance
2010 ROE (E) 18.5% through the downturn and more shareholder-friendly deployment options
LT Debt $6,424.0M
afforded by its well-developed International platform. Our enthusiasm is
Preferred $3,975.00M
tempered in the near term by the fact that this premium is in place.
Common Equity $22,500.0M
Convertible Available No
„ BNS trades at a premium to its peer group. On forward P/E, the current
Earnings Per Share Current premium is 10% versus a 10-year avg. of 4%. On P/B, the existing
2009 $3.65A premium of 22% is above the 10-year avg. of 9%. We expect the premiums
2010 $3.98E to hold given the firm's strategic advantages and above-average ROE.
2011 $4.31E
P/E
2009 14.7x
2010 13.5x Stock Price Performance
2011 12.5x
Cash EPS excluding one-time items.

Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
One of Canada's most international financial institutions,
Bank of Nova Scotia delivers retail and commercial CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
banking capabilities in approximately 50 countries. its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.scotiabank.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Robert Sedran, CFA Mehmed Rizvanovic, CFA investment decision.
1 (416) 594-7874 (416) 594-7283 See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
Robert.Sedran@cibc.ca Mike.Rizvanovic@cibc.ca
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Meny Grauman, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-3723
Meny.Grauman@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Solid Strategic Positioning Supports Premium Valuation - September 17, 2010

Scotiabank
All Figures in $ millions, except per share data (excl. one-time items)
KEY MULTI PLES F2009A F2010E F2011E OUR THESIS
P/E Multiple 14.7x 13.5x 12.4x We are comfortable with the premium at which the shares trade considering the bank's longer-term
Peer average 12.7x 11.5x strategic advantages, better organic growth rate, above-average ROE and more stable earnings.
However, expanding it from here will prove more challenging and so we maintain our Sector
Q3-10
Performer rating at this time.
P/BVPS 2.5x
Peer average 2.1x
OPERATING PERFORMANCE F2009A F2010E F2011E SEGMENTED EARNINGS CONTRIBUTION
Core cash EPS $3.65 $3.98 $4.31
Annual EPS growth (6.7% ) 9.0% 8.4% 125%
2%
Core cash ROE 18.9% 18.7% 18.5% 39% 28%
Efficiency ratio 52.6% 51.1% 51.1% 100%
28%
Operating leverage (YoY) 6.0% 0.8% 0.3% 29%
75% 30%
34%
CREDIT METRICS F2009A F2010E F2011E 33%
(1) 50% 29%
Loan loss rate 0.55% 0.47% 0.34%
57%
F2009A Q3-10 25% 37% 44% 49%
Gross impaired loans 3,939 5,398
Specific ACLs 1,376 2,800 0%
-4% -22% -16%
Total ACLs 2,875 4,259
(2) -25%
Classical Coverage ratio 73% 79%
F2007A F2008A F2009A Q3-10
Specific ACLs to GILs 35% 52%
General ACLs as % of Gross Loans & BAs 0.54% 0.50% Canadian Banking International Banking Scotia Capital Other

KEY EARNI NGS DRIVERS F2009A F2010E F2011E FORWARD P/E MULTIPLE RELATIVE TO PEER GROUP (based on consensus estimates)
Core net interest income 8,193 8,459 9,003
130%
% change 5.9% 3.2% 6.4% 10-y ear Av e rage Relativ e Fw d P/ E: 104% Curren t Relativ e Fw d P/E: 11 0%
(3)
Total capital markets related revenue 2,607 2,493 2,284 120%
% change 44.8% (4.4%) (8.4%)
110%
Provision for credit losses 1,602 1,314 995
% change 154% (18%) (24%) 100%
Non-interest expenses 7,919 8,023 8,176
% change 8.5% 1.3% 1.9% 90%

CAPI TAL MEASURES F2009A F2010E F2011E 80%


Tier 1 capital ratio 10.7% 11.9% 12.3%
Sep-00

Sep-02

Sep-04

Sep-06

Sep-08

Sep-10
Sep-01

Sep-03

Sep-05

Sep-07

Sep-09
Tangible common equity to RWA 7.9% 9.2% 9.9%
Tangible common equity to tangible assets 3.6% 3.8% 4.1% Curre nt Relativ e P/E 6-month Mov ing Av erage
Plus 1 Standard Dev iation Minus 1 standard De v iation
Risk Weighted Assets 221,640 215,090 223,823
LOAN BOOK F2009A F2010E F2011E P/BVPS MULTIPLE RELATIVE TO PEER GROUP
Residential mortgages 101,604 119,200 124,040 140%
Personal and credit cards 61,048 62,082 64,602 10-year Average Relativ e P/B = 109% Current Relativ e P/B = 122%
Business and government 106,520 104,842 109,099 130%

Gross Loans 269,172 286,124 297,742 120%


Acceptances 9,583 7,495 7,800
110%
Total Gross Loans & Acceptances 278,755 293,619 305,541
100%

90%

80%
N otes :
(1) PC Ls as a % of av erage net loans and acceptances (ex cl. repos ). 70%
Sep-00

Sep-07
Sep-01

Sep-02

Sep-03

Sep-04

Sep-05

Sep-06

Sep-08

Sep-09

Sep-10

(2) Total ACLs as a % of GILs.


(3) Ex cludes gains /(losses ) on inv estm ent sec urities.

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

15
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Telecommunications & Cable Services

BCE Inc.
Stock Rating:
Sector Performer
Solid Defensive Play With Yield Support And LT
Sector Weighting:
Operational Gain Potential
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $33.00
BCE-TSX (9/13/10) $32.75 „ BCE is one of Canada's largest communications companies. It owns 100% of
Key Indices: Toronto, S&P/TSX 60 Bell Canada, Canada's largest telco, and 100% of Bell TV (formerly
ExpressVu), Canada's largest satellite TV operator. BCE also holds a 44%
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) 8.2% stake in Bell Aliant, which has wireline operations in Atlantic Canada.
52-week Range $25.07-$33.75
Shares Outstanding 760.1M
Float 756.1M Shrs „ BCE recently announced it would acquire the remaining 85% interest in CTV
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 5,386,141 that it does not own. The company believes the deal was necessitated by
Market Capitalization $24,893.3M the growing importance of convergence. While the deal did not cost much,
Dividend/Div Yield $1.83 / 5.6% we believe it gives BCE a call option should content be required for wireless.
Fiscal Year Ends December
Book Value $18.98 per Shr „ Overall, BCE continues a series of solid quarters, focused on cost-cutting,
2010 ROE (E) 15.5% which continues to drive improving results. Wireless has also been seeing
LT Debt $13,893.0M
solid gains, with strong ARPU gains, improved data growth, and a trend
Preferred $2,770.00M
towards obtaining a fair share of net additions.
Common Equity $14,429.0M
Convertible Available No
„ With significant FCF generation, BCE is, in our view, a solid defensive play
Earnings Per Share Current with yield support and longer-term operational gain potential. That said, we
2009 $2.50A believe current valuations adequately reflect BCE's asset mix and its near-
2010 $2.81E term prospects from fundamentals. As such, we retain our SP rating.
2011 $2.85E
P/E
2009 13.1x
2010 11.7x Stock Price Performance
2011 11.5x

EBITDA ($MM excl. Aliant)


2009A $5,719.0
2010E $5,903.0
2011E $6,081.2

EV/EBITDA (excl. Aliant)


2009A 5.8x
2010E 5.6x
2011E 5.5x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
BCE is one of Canada's largest communications
companies.It owns 100% of Bell Canada, Canada's CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
largest telecom company, and 100% of Bell TV (formerly its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
ExpressVu), Canada's largest satellite TV operator. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.bce.ca Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Robert Bek, CFA Michael Lee, CFA investment decision.
1 (416) 594-7454 1 (416) 594-7907 See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
Bob.Bek@cibc.ca Michaelc.Lee@cibc.ca
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Tony Rizzi
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-7299
Tony.Rizzi@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Solid Defensive Play With Yield Support And LT Operational Gain Potential - September 17, 2010

BCE Inc. (BCE - TSX) Sector Performer


Current Price : C$32.75 Robert Bek, CFA (416-594-7454) Bob.Bek@cibc.ca
12- To 18- Month Price Target: C$33.00 Michael Lee, CFA (416-594-7907) Michaelc.Lee@cibc.ca
Tony Rizzi (416-594-7299) Tony Rizzi@cibc.ca
All figures in millions except per share data
EV / EBITDA Multiples F2008A F2009A F2010E F2011E Company Profile

BCE Inc. (excl. Aliant) - 5.8x 5.6x 5.5x BCE is Canada's largest communications company, providing wireline and
TELUS Corp. - 6.0x 5.7x 5.5x wireless voice and data services, broadband internet, and video services to
North American ILECs - 5.5x 5.5x 5.5x residential, business, and wholesale customers. BCE also owns a 44.2% voting
interest in Bell Aliant, a regional incumbent carrier in Canada.
U.S. RLECs - 7.7x 6.4x 6.3x

P / E Multiples F2008A F2009A F2010E F2011E Investment Thesis

BCE Inc. (excl. Aliant) - 13.1x 11.7x 11.5x Under the direction of George Cope, BCE has opportunities to steadily improve
TELUS Corp. - 13.7x 13.0x 12.4x operations and profitability, with focus returning to more aggressive wireless
North American ILECs - 13.5x 14.1x 14.3x intitiatives and cost cutting efforts. While material improvements in the business
U.S. RLECs - 13.3x 12.2x 12.3x will take time, near-term expectations are modest and achievable.
BCE is flush with cash, supporting an aggressive buyback, a sizable dividend, and
Key Financial Metrics F2008A F2009A F2010E F2011E prudent debt refinancing plans. As such, with significant free cash flow generation,
BCE is, in our view, a solid defensive play with strong yield support and potential
for longer-term operational gains.
Free Cash Flow Yield 6.9% 7.3% 8.9% 8.8%
Payout Ratio 64.1% 93.4% 83.7% 88.1% We believe current valuations adequately reflect BCE's asset mix, its near-term
Capital Intensity 16.9% 16.1% 15.9% 16.4% prospects from fundamentals, and its yield profile. While BCE's wireline segment
Net Debt / EBITDA 1.9x 2.0x 2.0x 1.9x remains under pressure, wireless opportunites are substantial, but material gains
may take many quarters and likely years to accomplish.
Effective Tax Rate 25.8% 15.0% 19.8% 25.0%

Income Statement F2008A F2009A F2010E F2011E Chart 1: Revenues & EBITDA By Segment (F2010E)

100%
Revenue 17,698.0 17,735.0 18,019.4 18,245.7
OpEx 10,444.0 10,291.0 10,597.7 10,632.3 31.2% 30.8%
75%
EBITDA 7,004.0 7,089.0 7,227.7 7,393.4
Depreciation & Amortization 3,269.0 3,371.0 3,298.0 3,338.0
50%
EBIT 2,864.0 3,191.0 3,862.7 3,955.4
68.8% 69.2%
Interest Expense 791.0 723.0 660.7 640.0
25%
EBT 1,820.0 2,450.0 3,342.0 3,315.4
Tax Expense (Recovery) 469.0 368.0 660.0 828.9 0%
Revenues EBITDA
Net Income 819.0 1,631.0 2,247.0 2,046.6
Wireline (includes Bell TV) Wireless
Adj. FD EPS 2.25 2.50 2.81 2.85

Free Cash Flow F2008A F2009A F2010E F2011E Key Operating Statistics (Last Reported Qtr.)

Q2/09 Q2/10 y/y Growth


EBITDA 7,004.0 7,089.0 7,227.7 7,393.4
Wireless ('000):
Plus: Other (1,052.0) (1,509.0) (902.0) (1,000.0)
Total Subs 6,572 6,987 6.3%
Less: Postpaid Net Adds 64 103 60.6%
Capex 2,988.0 2,854.0 2,872.7 2,990.1 Total Net Adds 45 98 118.8%
Common Dividends 953.0 1,570.0 1,713.0 1,798.7 Postpaid ARPU $62.58 $63.66 1.7%
Preferred Dividends 129.0 107.0 110.0 110.0 Prepaid ARPU $16.41 $18.35 11.8%
Cash Taxes 340.0 168.0 610.0 528.1 Wireline ('000):
Cash Interest 791.0 723.0 660.7 640.0 Residential Lines 4,042 3,714 -8.1%
Business Lines 3,031 2,918 -3.7%
Operating Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1,689.0 1,796.3 2,178.7 2,166.4 High-Speed Internet Subs 2,062 2,064 0.1%
Operating FCF Per Share 2.09 2.32 2.82 2.80 Bell TV ('000)
Total Subs 1,884 1,979 5.0%

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

17
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Telecommunications & Cable Services

Bell Aliant Regional Comm. Income


Stock Rating:
Sector Performer
Fund
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight Solid Yield Story With Little Down-side Risk
12-18 mo. Price Target $27.00
BA.UN-TSX (9/13/10) $25.85 „ Bell Aliant is one of North America's largest regional telcos, providing voice,
Key Indices: None data, Internet, video, and business solutions to customers in six Canadian
provinces (Ontario, Quebec, and the Atlantic provinces).
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) NM
52-week Range $24.74-$28.40
Shares Outstanding 228.4M „ As a wireline player, Bell Aliant's core business is under pressure from cable
Float 125.6M Shrs competition and wireless substitution over the long run. However, it remains
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 213,104 better insulated than other telcos due to its "rural geography," which, along
Market Capitalization $5,903.7M with its cost-cutting efforts, should help mitigate ongoing pressures.
Dividend/Div Yield $2.90 / 11.2%
Fiscal Year Ends December „ While some investors are focused on the potential for a buy-in from 44%-
Book Value NM owner BCE, we do not believe that such a move will come anytime soon.
2010 ROE (E) NM BCE has other strategic priorities and already has material say over the
Net Debt $2,751.7M
strategic direction at Bell Aliant to satisfy its near-term requirements.
Preferred Nil
Common Equity NM
Convertible Available No „ With the distribution cut now behind Bell Aliant and a reasonable post-
conversion dividend payout policy in place, there is little downside risk with
Distributable CF Generated Current owning the shares. That said, we believe Bell Aliant's shares are fairly
2009 $3.39A valued at present levels. Hence, we retain our SP rating.
2010 $3.05E
2011 $2.87E
Payout Ratio
2009 85.5%
2010 95.1% Stock Price Performance
2011 66.2%

EBITDA ($ mlns.)
2009A $1,466.4
2010E $1,426.7
2011E $1,412.2

EV/EBITDA
2009A 5.9x
2010E 6.1x
2011E 6.1x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Bell Aliant is one of North America's largest regional
communication providers. Bell Aliant provides voice, CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
data, Internet, video, and business solutions to its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
customers in six Canadian provinces. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.bell.aliant.ca Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Robert Bek, CFA Michael Lee, CFA investment decision.
1 (416) 594-7454 1 (416) 594-7907 See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
Bob.Bek@cibc.ca Michaelc.Lee@cibc.ca
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Tony Rizzi
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-7299
Tony.Rizzi@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Solid Yield Story With Little Down-side Risk - September 17, 2010

Bell Aliant Income Fund (BA.UN - TSX) Sector Performer


Current Price : C$25.85 Robert Bek, CFA (416-594-7454) Bob.Bek@cibc.ca
12- To 18- Month Price Target: C$27.00 Michael Lee, CFA (416-594-7907) Michaelc.Lee@cibc.ca
Tony Rizzi (416-594-7299) Tony Rizzi@cibc.ca
All figures in millions except per share data
EV / EBITDA Multiples 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Company Profile

Bell Aliant Income Fund - 5.9x 6.1x 6.1x Bell Aliant is one of North America's largest regional telecom carriers, providing
customers across the provinces of Atlantic Canada, Quebec, and Ontario with wireline
Cdn. ILECs - 5.5x 5.5x 5.5x
voice services, data and broadband internet, wireless, and video entertainment. Bell
U.S. ILECs - 5.5x 5.5x 5.5x Aliant also provides IT professional services and advanced technology solutions.
U.S. RLECs - 7.7x 6.4x 6.3x

P / E Multiples 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Investment Thesis

Bell Aliant Income Fund - 15.8x 18.9x 20.0x As a wireline player, Bell Aliant's core business will remain under pressure from cable
Cdn. ILECs - 13.3x 14.4x 14.9x competition. However, Bell Aliant is a little better insulated than other telcos due to its
U.S. ILECs - 13.9x 13.8x 13.3x more "rural" geography, which should help mitigate ongoing operational pressures.
U.S. RLECs - 13.3x 12.2x 12.3x
Post conversion at the end of 2010, Bell Aliant has announced it will cut distributions to
Key Financial Metrics 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E more sustainable levels (from $2.90 to $1.90) in order to accelerate the deployment of
its FTTN/FTTH network in Atlantic Canada as well as pay down debt.
Distributable Cash Flow Yield 12.1% 13.0% 11.7% 11.1%
Payout Ratio 91.9% 85.4% 94.8% 66.2% Bell Aliant remains a strong income vehicle with little operational risks to distributions
Capital Intensity 16.1% 14.6% 16.5% 17.9% over the near-term. Additionally, we expect tight cost control to continue to lead to
Net Debt / EBITDA 1.9x 1.9x 1.9x 1.9x robust distributable cash flow generation.

Income Statement 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Chart 1: Revenues By Segment (2010E)
Wireless
Information
3%
Revenue 3,282.0 3,174.2 3,056.7 3,017.5 Tech
OpEx 1,831.1 1,707.8 1,630.0 1,605.3 9%
EBITDA 1,450.9 1,466.4 1,426.7 1,412.2
Depreciation & Amortization 716.1 715.0 710.0 710.0 Local & Access
EBIT 595.8 621.6 591.6 592.2 45%
Internet & Data
Interest Expense 156.9 158.4 159.0 160.0
29%
EBT 441.2 451.8 430.7 430.3
Tax Expense (Recovery) (21.8) (56.1) (14.8) 0.0
Long Distance
Net Income 331.9 373.0 313.5 295.3 14%
Adj. FD EPU 1.46 1.63 1.37 1.29

Distributable Cash Flow 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Key Operating Statistics (Last Reported Qtr.)

Adj. EBITDA 1,386.7 1,399.1 1,358.1 1,348.1 Q2/09 Q2/10 y/y Growth
Less: Wireline ('000):
Capex 528.8 464.8 503.7 540.1 Residential Lines 1,993.0 1,867.0 -6.3%
Cash Taxes 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Business Lines 1,021 997 -2.3%
High-Speed Internet Subs 782.7 829.8 6.0%
Cash Interest 149.5 151.7 152.0 146.5
Other Income (7.2) 9.2 5.8 5.8
Wireless ('000):
Total Subs 116.9 125.6 7.4%
Distributable Cash 715.6 773.4 696.5 655.6
Total Net Adds 3.0 4.2 41.2%
Per Unit 3.14 3.39 3.05 2.87
Blended ARPU $60.09 $58.39 -2.8%
Distributions Paid 657.9 660.2 660.4 433.9
Per Unit 2.89 2.90 2.90 1.90
Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

19
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Business & Professional Services

Bird Construction Income Fund


Stock Rating:
Sector Performer
Company Profile
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $38.00
BDT.UN-TSX (9/13/10) $36.04 „ Bird is a buildings general contractor with operations throughout the
Key Indices: None country and a focus on Western Canada. The fund operates in three major
markets: industrial (33% of revenues), institutional (55%) and
3-5-Yr. AFFO Gr. Rate NA retail/commercial (12%).
52-week Range $28.01-$36.15
Units Outstanding 14.1M
Distr. Frequency Monthly „ Given weak industrial and commercial markets, Bird's revenues have been
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. NM in decline since peaking in mid-2008 (down 11% Y/Y in Q2). However,
Market Capitalization $506.4M backlog appears to be improving, up 6% Y/Y in Q2. Recent P3 project wins
DCF Value/Distr. Yield NA / NA (RCMP E Division, OPP Modernization, Alberta Schools II) should also help.
Fiscal Year Ends December
Book Value $10.21 per Unit „ Despite weak end-markets, Bird has maintained a focus on delivering best-
2010 D/CF NM in-class profitability. Q2 EBITDA margins were up 100 bps Y/Y given a focus
Net Cash $165.40M
on more complex work and lower construction costs. Cash is strong at
Net Asset Value NM
~$12/unit, the payout ratio is <50% and acquisitions are infrequent.
Common Equity $152.6M
Convertible Available No
„ We expect that Bird will benefit as oil sands projects restart and the P3
EBITDA ($ mlns.) Current market gains traction. However, we expect that the majority of the benefit
2009 $75.0A will be in H2/11 and beyond. We rate Bird Sector Performer with a $38 price
2010 $76.7E target.
2011 $81.9E
EV/EBITDA
2009 4.3x
2010 4.2x Stock Price Performance
2011 3.9x

Distributable Cash Flow Generated


2009 $4.10A
2010 $4.15E
2011 $3.85E
Payout Ratio
2009 35.4%
2010 43.4%
2011 46.8%
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Bird Construction Income Fund provides general
contracting, construction management and design-build CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
services to the institutional, retail, and industrial sectors. its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.bird.ca Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Paul Lechem Stephanie Price, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-6429 1 (416) 594-7047
Paul.Lechem@cibc.ca Stephanie.Price@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Company Profile - September 17, 2010

Bird Construction (BDT.UN-TSX) Sector Performer


Current Price: $36.04 Paul Lechem (416-956-6429) Paul.Lechem@cibc.ca
12 to 18 month Price Target: $38.00 Stephanie Price, CFA (416-594-7047) Stephanie.Price@cibc.ca
All Figures in $ millions, except per share data
Key Statistics Investment Thesis
Share Price $36.04 Net Cash (Debt) 165.4
Shares Outstanding 14.1 Enterprise Value 341.0 Bird Construction Income Fund provides general contracting, construction
Market Capitalization 506.4 management and design-build services to the institutional, retail, and industrial
sectors.
Revenues in 2008 were split between work in the industrial (39% of revenues),
Key Multiples F2009A F2010E F2011E
commercial/retail (29%) and institutional (32%) sectors. Work in the industrial
P/E 8.9x 8.6x 9.3x
(largely Alberta oil sands) and commercial/retail sectors has softened, with the
EV/EBITDA 4.5x 4.4x 4.2x company's backlog down over 20% from the peak.
Peers (Average) Nevertheless, Bird continues to generate very high profitability, and with a
P/E 9.7x 9.3x 10.1x payout ratio of under 50% contines to maintain a strong cash balance.
EV/EBITDA 5.3x 5.7x 4.2x

Key Metrics F2009A F2010E F2011E


EBITDA Margin 8.5% 9.5% 9.0%
Net margin 6.4% 7.3% 6.0%
Cash Per Unit $14.50 $14.20 $17.06
Net Debt/EBITDA

Income Statement F2009A F2010E F2011E


Sales 882.9 809.1 910.1 Quarterly Results
350 25

Revenues ($mlns.)
Growth (y/y) -15.1% -8.4% 12.5% 300

EBITDA ($mlns.)
20
Operating Expenses 808.0 732.5 828.2 250
200 15
EBITDA 75.0 76.7 81.9
150 10
Amortization 3.4 2.8 3.8 100
EBT 71.6 73.8 78.1 5
50
Income Tax 14.7 14.7 23.4 0 0
Net Income (Loss) 56.9 59.1 54.7 Q F20 1
Q F20 1
Q F20 2
Q F20 3
Q F20 4
Q F20 4
Q F20 5
Q F20 6
Q F20 7
Q F20 7
Q F20 8
F2 9
0
4- 0
3- 0
2- 0
1- 0
4- 0
3- 0
2- 0
1- 0
4- 0
3- 0
2- 0
1- 0
01
Q F20

EPU $4.05 $4.21 $3.89


1-

Distributable cash 57.6 58.4 54.1


Q

DCPU $4.10 $4.15 $3.85 Net Revenue EBITDA

Cash distributions 23.2 25.3 25.3


Distributions per unit $1.65 $1.80 $1.80
Payout ratio 40.3% 43.3% 46.8%

Free Cash Flow F2009A F2010E F2011E


Cash Flow From Operations 100.2 42.1 67.5 Cash High, Payouts Low
Capital Expenditures (2.1) (1.6) (2.0) 250 100%
Free Cash Flow 98.1 40.4 65.5 200 80%
Free Cash Flow Per Unit $6.98 $2.88 $4.66
$ mlns.

150 60%
100 40%
Balance Sheet F2009A F2010E F2011E 50 20%
Cash & ST Investments 203.8 199.5 239.8 0 0%
Goodwill & Intangibles 11.6 11.6 11.6
Q 006

Q 006

Q 007

Q 007

Q 008

Q 008

Q 009

Q 009

0
01

Total Assets 438.6 415.6 474.0


F2

F2
F2

F2

F2

F2

F2

F2

F2
1-

3-

1-

3-

1-

3-

1-

3-

1-

Debt 0.0 0.0 0.0


Q

Cash Payout ratio


Total Liabilities 303.3 246.4 275.4
Unitholder's Equity 135.3 169.2 198.6

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

21
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Aerospace & Defense

Bombardier Inc.
Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Company Profile
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target C$7.00
BBD.B-TSX (9/13/10) C$5.03 „ Bombardier designs, manufactures and services aerospace and rail
Key Indices: Toronto transportation markets to customers worldwide with a leading market share
in the majority of segments. The company's aerospace division produces
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) 12.1% turboprop, business, commercial, specialty and regional jet aircrafts.
52-week Range C$4.16-C$6.24
Shares Outstanding 1,728.0M
Float 1,459.0M Shrs „ The long-term opportunities for Bombardier are too large to ignore: 1) the
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 5,393,866 bias for business jet demand should be positive over the next few years; 2)
Market Capitalization $8,455.1M trends in the transportation segment appear favourable; and 3) the CSeries
Dividend/Div Yield C$0.10 / 2.0% should provide Bombardier with significant upside after F2013.
Fiscal Year Ends January
Book Value $2.23 per Shr „ Bombardier Transportation (BT) manufactures and services a variety of
2010 ROE (E) 15.0% railway rolling stock, systems and signaling equipment. Our revenue
Net Debt $1,273.0M
forecast for BT is based on stable growth as the company converts a
Preferred $392.10M
significant backlog ($30.3 billion as of the end of Q2/F11) into revenue.
Common Equity $3,884.0M
Convertible Available No
„ We believe the major growth driver for regional jets beyond F2013 will be
Earnings Per Share Current reflected by demand from the CSeries. We expect business jet demand will
2010 $0.39A begin to recover in C2011, albeit at a moderate rate. Growth for business
2011 $0.34E jets beyond F2013 will likely benefit from the introduction of the Learjet 85.
2012 $0.41E
P/E
2010 12.5x
2011 14.4x Stock Price Performance
2012 11.9x

EV/EBITDA
F2010A 5.8x
F2011E 7.1x
F2012E 5.9x

Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in US dollars, unless otherwise stated.(C$1.028:US$1)
Bombardier Inc. is an internationally diversified
manufacturer supplying aerospace and rail CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
transportation equipment and services. its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.bombardier.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Michael Willemse, CFA David Galison
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-7285 1 (416) 956-3548
Michael.Willemse@cibc.ca David.Galison@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Company Profile - September 17, 2010

Bombardier (BBD.B-TSX) Sector Outperformer


Current Price: C$5.03 Michael Willemse, CFA 416-594-7285 michael.willemse@cibc.ca
12- To 18-Month Price Target: C$7 David Galison, MBA 416-956-3548 david.galison@cibc.ca
All Figures in USD$ millions, except per share data unless otherwise stated USD:CAD 1.0270 13-Sep-10
F2011E F2012E F2012E
Key Multiples F2011E P/E EBITDA P/E EBITDA Investment Thesis
Bombardier 15.0x 8.5x 12.2x 7.0x Bombardier has two reportable manufacturing segments, Aerospace (Business
Aerospace Companies 16.5x 8.5x 14.9x 6.5x Aircraft, Commercial Aircraft, Specialized and Amphibious Aircraft, Customer
Diversified Manufacturers 11.8x 9.1x 10.5x 8.4x Services and Flexjet/Skyjet) and Transportation (Rolling Stock, Services, Systems
and Signaling). Management intends to maintain a diversified product strategy with
Transportation Companies 11.1x 6.1x 10.8x 5.9x
a continued focus on the rail and aerospace markets.
Historical P/ 1yr EPS 12.8x
Aerospace: the major growth driver for regional jets beyond F2013 will be
Historical EV/TTM EBITDA 6.4x reflected by demand from the CSeries. We expect that business jet demand will
Operating Performance F2010 A F2011 E F2012 E F2013 E begin to recover in calendar 2011, albeit at a moderate rate. Growth for business
Return on Equity 18.5% 15.0% 15.1% 16.5% jets beyond F2013 will likely benefit from the introduction of the Learjet 85.
Return on Capital Employed 24.2% 19.4% 21.0% 22.2%
Transportation has been somewhat sheltered from the economic downturn, given
EBITDA Margin 8.1% 7.9% 8.6% 9.3%
that large-scale transit infrastructure is typically funded by the public sector. BA
EBIT Margin 5.7% 5.7% 6.4% 7.2% has been negatively impacted by cyclical swings in the aerospace sector.
EBT Margin 4.7% 4.6% 5.0% 5.9% However, Bombardier's diversification strategy has allowed the company to offset
Net Margin 3.6% 3.4% 3.5% 4.1% weakness in one area with other segments that have a more stable growth and
demand profile. Bombardier is actively seeking to grow by providing new products
in the company’s traditional markets (North America and Europe) as well as
Quality of Earnings F2010 A F2011 E F2012 E F2013 E
through an increased focus on emerging markets such as Asia.
Cash Realization Ratio1 0.8x 2.3x 1.8x 1.4x
P/FCF 18.9x 183.3x 43.5x 10.5x
FCF Yield 5.3% 0.5% 2.3% 9.6%
Effective Tax Rate 22.7% 27.0% 27.5% 30.0%
Interest Coverage 3.9x 3.7x 3.8x 4.6x Deliveries (units) F2010 A F2011 E F2012 E F2013 E
Income Statement F2010 A F2011 E F2012 E F2013 E Business Aircraft 176 149 164 180
Revenue - Consolidated $19,366.0 $18,193.1 $20,221.1 $22,217.8 Commercial Aircraft 121 97 104 114
Gross Profit $3,164.0 $3,047.5 $3,441.9 $3,930.0 Amphibious Aircraft 5 5 5 5
EBITDA $1,570.0 $1,436.5 $1,745.8 $2,060.7 * Current Backlog - Aerospace $17.1 Q2/F11 A
EBIT $1,098.0 $1,044.5 $1,295.8 $1,610.7 *Current Backlog - Transportation $30.3 Q2/F11 A
EBT $915.0 $839.7 $1,011.0 $1,321.9 *US$ bln
Minority Interest $9.0 $13.0 $16.0 $16.0 Valuation & Outlook
Net Income - Cont. Oper. $698.0 $621.2 $717.0 $909.3 Current Price: C$5.03 Rating: SO
FD EPS, (Ex. Unusuals) $0.39 $0.34 $0.41 $0.52 Price Target: C$7.00
FD S/O 1,755 1,743 1,743 1,743 12-18 Mo Return: 39.2%
Price Target Represents: F2011 E F2012 E F2013 E
Cash Flow F2010 A F2011 E F2012 E F2013 E P/E: 20.3x 16.6x 13.1x
Operating cash flow (ex WC) $1,223.0 $1,158.3 $1,385.8 $1,649.3 Enterprise Value: C$12,985 C$13,589 C$13,350
Capex ($767.0) ($1,111.7) ($1,189.5) ($833.2) EV/EBITDA: 8.8x 7.6x 6.3x
Working Capital Investments ($671.0) $242.0 ($125.3) ($402.8) EV/Sales: 0.7x 0.7x 0.6x
Free Cash Flow2 $456.0 $46.6 $196.3 $816.1 P/BV: 2.9x 2.5x 2.2x
FCF per Share $0.26 $0.03 $0.11 $0.47 FCF Yield: 0.4% 1.7% 6.9%
Balance Sheet F2010 A F2011 E F2012 E F2013 E Consolidated Chart
Cash And Equivalents $4,054.0 $4,349.6 $4,240.6 $4,473.9 $2,500 12%
Total debt $4,162.0 $4,633.0 $5,113.0 $5,113.0
$2,000 10%
Equity $3,769.0 $4,145.9 $4,734.9 $5,516.2
Minority Interest $68.0 $66.0 $66.0 $66.0 8%
$1,500
Preferred Value $347.0 $346.0 $346.0 $346.0 6%
Net debt (Cash) $176.0 $349.4 $938.4 $705.1 $1,000
4%
Net debt per share $0.10 $0.20 $0.54 $0.40
$500 2%
Net debt/EBITDA 0.1x 0.2x 0.5x 0.3x
Book Value Per Unit (FD) $2.15 $2.38 $2.72 $3.16 $0 0%
F2005 A

F2006 A

F2007 A

F2008 A

F2009 A

F2010 A

F2011 E

F2012 E

F2013 E

1
Calculated as CFO divided by Net Income.
2
Calculated as CFO less Capex
Source: Bloomberg, Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc. EBITDA EBIT
*Bombardier Fiscal Years Ending January 31. Fiscal 2011 = Calendar 2010 for comparative purposes. EBITDA Margin EBIT Margin

23
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Multi-Industry

Brookfield Asset Management


Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Exceptional Managers Of Long-life, Cash-flow-
Sector Weighting:
producing Assets
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $33.00
BAM-NYSE (9/13/10) $27.40 „ Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) owns and manages roughly $107
Key Indices: None billion of primarily commercial property, renewable power, infrastructure,
and other similar assets. BAM's invested capital totals $22 billion, with the
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) NM remainder managed on behalf of institutional and public market investors.
52-week Range $20.01-$27.80
Shares Outstanding 574.9M
Float 470.9M Shrs „ The company has developed robust operating platforms, a deep senior
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. NM management team and a very strong board of directors, and has strong
Market Capitalization $15,752.3M alignment through considerable insider and management ownership. We
Dividend/Div Yield $0.52 / 1.9% believe these characteristics are core to the company's future success.
Fiscal Year Ends December
Net Asset Value $30.00 per Shr „ We expect rising, demographically driven demand for stable, cash-flow-
2010 ROE (E) NM producing, real-return assets to support strong demand for the types of
LT Debt $2,625.0M
assets BAM specializes in, and that the company's very strong management
Preferred $1,413.00M
platform could support rapid AUM growth over the next several years.
Common Equity $14,484.0M
Convertible Available No
„ BAM is a well-established, yet rapidly growing global asset manager of
Earnings Per Share* Current property, power and infrastructure. We expect its net asset value to grow as
2009 $0.71A a result of rising values for its publicly traded and private real estate, power
2010 $0.95E and infrastructure assets over the next 12-18 months.
2011 $1.18E
P/E
2009 38.6x
2010 28.8x Stock Price Performance
2011 23.2x
* 2010E & 2011E restated to IFRS presentation.
Cash Flow Per Share*
2009 $2.43A
2010 $2.35E
2011 $2.45E

P/CF
2009 11.3x
2010 11.7x
2011 11.2x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in US dollars, unless otherwise stated.
BAM is an international diversified property, power &
infrastructure, investment and asset management CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
company with controlling interests in a number of its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
publicly traded subsidiaries. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.brookfield.com/ Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Alex Avery, CFA Brad Sturges, CFA investment decision.
1 (416) 594-8179 1 (416) 594-7399 See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
Alex.Avery@cibc.ca Brad.Sturges@cibc.ca
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Troy MacLean, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-3643
Troy.Maclean@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Exceptional Managers Of Long-life, Cash-flow-producing Assets - September 17, 2010

Brookfield Asset Management (BAM-NYSE) Alex Avery, CFA


Stock Rating: Sector Outperformer 12 - 18 month Price Target: $33.00 Per Unit Brad Sturges, CFA
Sector Weighting: Market Weight Unit Price - (9/13/2010): $27.40 Per Unit Troy MacLean, CFA
Market Capitalization ($ mlns): $15,727.6 Current Yield: 1.9%

PRICE TAR GET CALCULATION & NAV COMPANY DESCRIPTION


CIBC 2010E CFPS: $2.35 BAM is a diversified asset manager with interests in property, power, infrastructure, and other assets across
Target Multiple (2010E CFPS): ~14.0x the globe, with controlling interests in several publically traded companies, including Brookfield Properties and
CIBC Price Target: $33.00 Brookfield Homes. BAM trades on both the TSX and the NYSE.
Implied 12-18 Month Total Return: 22%
CIBC NAV(E): $30.00 COMPANY STR ATEGY
Premium/(Discount) To NAV: (9%) BAM's principal strategy is to invest, for its own account and on behalf of co-investors, in real assets and
businesses that enjoy competitive advantages, barriers to entry or restricted regulatory environments. These
TOTAL RETURN competitive advantages typically allow BAM to generate stable cash flows, attractive operating margins and
long-term value appreciation.
2008 2009 2010 YTD
Price Return (56.0%) 45.3% 23.5%
Yield 1.5% 3.4% n/a INVESTMENT THESIS: SECTOR OUTPERFORMER
Total (54.5%) 48.7% 23.5% VERY STRONG MANAGEMENT TEAM AN D LEADERSHIP: A very deep management team, board and
group of "partners" provides superior information collection and deal sourcing capabilities, which are crucial
COMPAN Y MAN AGEMENT for the scale and type of assets the company pursues.
Bruce Flatt - Senior Managing Partner (SMP) and CEO BAM IS VERY WELL CAPITALIZED : At Q2/10, BAM had ~$4.2 billion of liquidity including $2.7 billion at the
Brian Lawson - Senior Managing Partner and CFO BAM level. In addition, BAM has $7.4 billion in un-invested capital allocation from its investment partners and
Ric Clark - SMP, Property Operations; CEO of BPO-NYSE could raise more to fund a specific new transaction.
Richard Legault - SMP; CEO-Brookfield Renewable Power
Sam Pollock - SMP; Head of Infrastructure Activities BROAD EXPERTISE ALLOWS FOR INVESTMENT ACROSS SEVERAL ASSET CLASSES: With robust
Harry Goldgut - SMP; C hairman-Brookfield Renewable Power management capabilities across many industries, the company can pursue investments in the most appealing
George Myhal - SMP, Asset Management & Public Securities sectors, efficiently allocating capital for the greatest returns.
www.brookfield.com

EARNINGS SUMMARY EARNINGS MULTIPLES


Financial Metric 2009A 2010E 2011E EPS MULTIPLES 2009A 2010E 2011E
Earnings Per Share $0.71 $0.95 $1.18 Brookfield Asset Management 38.6x 28.8x 23.2x
YoY Change (30.4%) 33.8% 24.2%
CFPS MU LTIPLES 2009A 2010E 2011E
Cash Flow Per Share $2.43 $2.35 $2.45 Brookfield Asset Management 11.3x 11.7x 11.2x
YoY Change 4.3% (3.3% ) 4.3%

LIQU IDITY PROFILE (at Q2/10) OPERATING CASH FLOW BREAKDOWN


Core Liquidity - cash, financial assets and undrawn credit facilities.
Q2/10 Total of $455 million
Corporate Level $2.7
Principal operating units $1.5
Total Core Liquidity $4.2 Special Situations
Development 6%
8%
NAV BREAKDOWN (Q2/10) Cash & other assets
($ mlns.) $ Per Share 8%
Renewable Power 8,345 14.17 Commercial
Asset
Commercial Properties 5,126 8.70 Properties
Mgmt/Services
Infrastructure 1,785 3.03 20%
17%
Development Activities 3,346 5.68
Special Situations 2,516 4.27 Renewable Power
Infrastructure
Cash and Financial Assets 1,708 2.90 34%
7%
Other Assets 1,987 3.37
Corporate (7,329) (12.45)
Total 17,484 29.69

HISTORICAL PREMIUM/(DISCOUNT) TO ESTIMATED NAV BROOK FIELD'S INVESTED CAPITAL - $22 BILLION

40% Development
30% 9% Special Situations
20% 9%
10% Commercial
Properties Cash, Financial
0%
23% Assets, Other
(10%)
14%
(20%)
(30%) Infrastructure
Renewable Power
(40%) 9%
36%
Q3/99 Q1/01 Q3/02 Q1/04 Q4/05 Q2/07 Q4/08 Q2/10
Note: June 2010, Prior to corporate liabilities

Source: Company reports, Thomson One Reuters and CIBC World Markets Inc.

25
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Aerospace & Defense

CAE Inc.
Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Company Profile
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $12.00
CAE-TSX (9/13/10) $10.44 „ CAE is a global leader in full flight simulators and flight training services.
Key Indices: DJ Ind, Toronto The company holds a dominant market share for civil aircraft simulators,
civil aviation training and continues to build its leading position in the
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) 11.8% military market.
52-week Range $8.34-$10.62
Shares Outstanding 256.5M
Float 209.6M Shrs „ The main drivers for CAE going forward include an eventual rebound in the
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 515,127 civil simulator and training markets, continued growth at the military
Market Capitalization $2,677.9M operations and the successful penetration of the helicopter and healthcare
Dividend/Div Yield $0.16 / 1.5% markets. These growth drivers are somewhat offset by currency headwinds.
Fiscal Year Ends March
Book Value $4.64 per Shr „ Although the economic downturn in C2009 created some headwinds for CAE
2010 ROE (E) 13.4% over the past year, overall growth for the company has been impressive
Net Debt $296.7M
over the past few years. For the year ending F2010, the eight-year revenue
Preferred Nil
and EBITDA CAGR for CAE was 5.3% and 3.8%, respectively.
Common Equity $1,191.2M
Convertible Available No
„ CAE’s dominant market share, strong geographic coverage, and ability to
Operating Earnings Per Share Current easily adapt to regulations and customs in new countries have allowed the
2010 $0.65A company to penetrate new business opportunities in emerging markets
2011 $0.64E quickly and cost effectively.
2012 $0.71E
P/E
2010 16.1x
2011 16.3x Stock Price Performance
2012 14.7x

EV/EBITDA
F2010A 8.4x
F2011E 8.4x
F2012E 7.4x

Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
CAE Inc. provides modeling, simulation and training
products and services for commercial and government CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
customers worldwide. its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.cae.ca Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Michael Willemse, CFA David Galison
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-7285 1 (416) 956-3548
Michael.Willemse@cibc.ca David.Galison@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Company Profile - September 17, 2010

CAE (CAE-TSX) Sector Outperformer


Current Price: $10.44 Michael Willemse, CFA 416-594-7285 michael.willemse@cibc.ca
12- To 18-Month Price Target: $12 David Galison, MBA 416-956-3548 david.galison@cibc.ca
All Figures in $ mlns, except per share data unless otherwise stated USD:CAD 1.0273 13-Sep-10
F2010E F2011E
Key Multiples F2010E P/E EBITDA F2011E P/E EBITDA Investment Thesis
CAE 16.3x 8.4x 14.8x 7.4x CAE is a global leader in Full-Flight Simulators (FFS) and flight training
Flight Training Companies 13.4x 6.9x 10.8x 6.0x services. The company holds a dominant market share for Civil aircraft
Transporation Equipment 22.0x 8.5x 14.4x 6.6x simulators and is working on building its leading position in the Military
market. The civil aerospace simulation market has been impacted by the
Military & Government Capital Equipment 10.9x 6.3x 10.1x 5.9x
global economic recession, however, recent positive data from the IATA
suggests the market for simulators should improve in the near term.
Historical P/ 1yr EPS 15.5x Annual shipments of Civil FFS should eventually increase back to
Historical EV/TTM EBITDA 10.6x normalized levels of approximately 60 to 70 per year, an increase from
Operating Performance F2009 F2010 F2011 E F2012 E orders of 30 FFS in 2009. The Military operations should benefit from
continued growth as government interests continue to focus on the
Return on Equity 16.5% 12.5% 12.8% 12.7%
increase use of simulation for flight and combat training. We value the
Return on Capital Employed 13.6% 9.6% 10.9% 11.3% main Civil and Military businesses of CAE at $10.50.
EBITDA Margin 23.7% 23.1% 21.8% 22.8%
EBIT Margin 18.3% 15.1% 16.1% 17.0% Investors also receive a call option on the eventual entrance into the
EBT Margin 17.0% 13.4% 14.3% 14.8% helicopter, healthcare and professional services markets. Although the
realization of earnings from these markets are still a few years away, on a
Net Margin 12.0% 9.5% 10.1% 10.3%
DCF basis the total value could be worth $2.00-$5.00/share. We have
Quality of Earnings F2009 F2010 F2011 E F2012 E assumed a $1.00 valuation for the potential opportunities in these
1
Cash Realization Ratio 0.5x 1.8x 0.8x 1.6x sectors.
P/FCF -291.3x 19.1x 39.3x 21.2x
FCF Yield -0.3% 5.2% 2.5% 4.7% Segmented Data F2009 F2010 F2011 E F2012 E
Effective Tax Rate 29.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% Global FFS Orders 50 29 36 43
Interest Coverage 15.0x 8.8x 9.1x 7.7x CAE FFS Orders 35 20 25 30
Income Statement F2009 F2010 F2011 E F2012 E Civil EBITDA $247.4 $192.2 $188.2 $218.3
Revenue - Consolidated $1,662.2 $1,526.3 $1,630.0 $1,773.0 Military EBITDA $146.5 $161.1 $167.7 $185.6
Gross Profit $393.9 $353.3 $356.0 $403.9 Backlog $3,042.8
EBITDA $393.9 $353.3 $356.0 $403.9 Valuation & Outlook
EBIT $303.6 $230.0 $261.9 $300.8 Current Price: C$10.44 Rating: SO
EBT $283.4 $204.0 $233.2 $261.6 Price Target: C$12.00 Dividend: $0.16
Net Income - Cont. Oper. $199.4 $144.5 $163.9 $183.1 12-18 Mo Return: 13.4%
FD EPS, (Ex. Unusuals) $0.79 $0.65 $0.64 $0.71 Price Target Represents: F2010 F2011 E F2012 E
FD S/O 255.1 255.9 256.5 259.4 P/E: 18.5x 18.8x 17.0x
Cash Flow F2009 F2010 F2011 E F2012 E Enterprise Value: $3,255.6 $3,277.9 $3,426.6
Operating cash flow (ex WC) $194.8 $267.0 $194.3 $284.5 EV/EBITDA: 9.2x 9.2x 8.5x
Capex ($203.7) ($130.9) ($128.1) ($160.0) EV/Sales: 2.1x 2.0x 1.9x
Working Capital Investments ($94.6) ($3.6) ($68.5) $0.1 P/BV: 2.6x 2.3x 2.1x
2
Free Cash Flow ($8.9) $136.1 $66.2 $124.5 FCF Yield: 7.1% 6.9% 7.5%
FCF per Share ($0.03) $0.53 $0.26 $0.48 Consolidated Chart
Balance Sheet F2009 F2010 F2011 E F2012 E
$500 25%
Cash And Equivalents $195.2 $312.9 $302.6 $391.9
Total debt $480.3 $492.7 $497.2 $697.2 $400 20%
Equity $1,205.1 $1,155.8 $1,277.6 $1,437.5 $300 15%
Net debt (Cash) $285.1 $179.8 $194.6 $305.3 $200 10%
Net debt per share $1.12 $0.70 $0.76 $1.18
$100 5%
Net debt/EBITDA 0.7x 0.5x 0.5x 0.8x
Book Value Per Unit (FD) $4.72 $4.52 $4.98 $5.54 $0 0%
F2006

F2007

F2008

F2009

F2010

F2011

F2012

1
Calculated as CFO divided by Net Income.
E

2
Calculated as CFO less Capex
EBITDA EBIT
Source: Bloomberg, Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.
EBITDA Margin EBIT Margin
*CAE Fiscal Years Ending March 31. Fiscal 2011 = Calendar 2010 for comparative purposes.

27
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Banks

Canadian Imperial Bank of


Stock Rating:
Not Rated
Commerce
Sector Weighting:
Overweight Falling Loan Losses Should Support Earnings
12-18 mo. Price Target $79.00 Growth In F2011
CM-TSX (9/13/10) $75.09 „ CM is the fifth-largest Canadian bank by market cap, with assets of $350
Key Indices: None billion as at Q3/F10. Over the past four quarters, the company derived 79%
of its consolidated earnings from Retail Markets and 21% from Wholesale,
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) 8.0% not including a $105 million loss in its Corporate segment.
52-week Range $61.05-$77.38
Shares Outstanding 390.8M
Float 390.8M Shrs „ Despite the difficult capital markets environment, CM posted q/q trading
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 1,509,000 revenue growth off 21% in Q3/F10, the only bank to show an increase. This
Market Capitalization $29,343.7M more stable performance was one of the reasons our estimates moved
Dividend/Div Yield $3.48 / 4.6% higher during earnings season and now call for 8.5% growth in F2011.
Fiscal Year Ends October
Book Value $31.36 per Shr „ Q3/F10 marked the third consecutive decline in loan losses provisions,
2010 ROE (E) 20.9% which highlights the positive contribution that improving credit is having on
LT Debt $6,067.0M
earnings. While we see this trend continuing, we expect it to be more
Preferred $3,156.00M
gradual as the pace of the economic recovery slows.
Common Equity $12,256.0M
Convertible Available No
„ On a forward P/E basis, CM currently trades at a 9% discount relative to its
Cash EPS Ex. One-time Items Current peers versus a historical average of 5%. On a P/B basis, CM trades at a
2009 $5.88A 17% premium relative to its Canadian peers versus an 8% average
2010 $6.53E premium over the last 10 years.
2011 $7.08E
P/E
2009 12.8x
2010 11.5x Stock Price Performance
2011 10.6x

Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
CIBC is one of North America's leading financial
institutions with almost seven million personal banking CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
and business customers. its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.cibc.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Robert Sedran, CFA Mehmed Rizvanovic, CFA investment decision.
1 (416) 594-7874 (416) 594-7283 See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
Robert.Sedran@cibc.ca Mike.Rizvanovic@cibc.ca
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Meny Grauman, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-3723
Meny.Grauman@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Falling Loan Losses Should Support Earnings Growth In F2011 - September 17, 2010

CIBC
All Figures in $ millions, except per share data (excl. one-time items)
KEY MULTI PLES F2009A F2010E F2011E SEGMENTED EARNINGS CONTRIBUTION
P/E Multiple 12.8x 11.5x 10.6x
Peer average 12.7x 11.5x 125%
3% 2%
Q3-10 100% 18%
11% 26%
P/BVPS 2.4x 23%
Peer average 2.1x 75%
OPERATING PERFORMANCE F2009A F2010E F2011E 50% 87% 88%
Core cash EPS $5.88 $6.53 $7.08 73% 79%

Annual EPS growth (14.3% ) 11.0% 8.5% 25%


Core cash ROE 20.6% 21.4% 20.9%
0%
Efficiency ratio 57.7% 57.5% 57.7% -5% -5%
Operating leverage (YoY) 4.6% 0.9% 1.3% -25%
CREDIT METRICS F2009A F2010E F2011E F2007A F2008A F2009A Q3-10
(1)
Loan loss rate 0.83% 0.69% 0.54% CIBC Retail Markets Wholesale Banking Corporate & Other
F2009A Q3-10
Gross impaired loans 1,911 2,042
Specific ACLs 736 817 FORWARD P/E MULTIPLE RELATIVE TO PEER GROUP (based on consensus estimates)
Total ACLs 2,043 2,037 120%
Classical Coverage ratio (2) 107% 100% 10-y ear Av erage R elativ e F w d P/E: 95% C urrent R elativ e F w d P/E: 91%
Specific ACLs to GILs 39% 40% 110%

General ACLs as % of Gross Loans & BAs 0.74% 0.65%


100%

KEY EARNI NGS DRIVERS F2009A F2010E F2011E


90%
Core net interest income 5,134 5,905 6,202
% change (8.6%) 15.0% 5.0%
80%
(3)
Total capital markets related revenue 1,616 1,608 1,561
% change 22.6% (0.5%) (2.9%) 70%
Provision for credit losses 1,459 1,262 1,025
Sep-00

Sep-03

Sep-07
Sep-01

Sep-02

Sep-04

Sep-05

Sep-06

Sep-08

Sep-09

Sep-10
% change 89% (14%) (19%)
C urrent R elativ e P/E 6-m onth M ov ing Av erage
Non-interest expenses 6,588 6,816 7,012 Plus 1 Standard Dev iation M inus 1 s tandard Dev iation
% change (2.3%) 3.5% 2.9%
CAPI TAL MEASURES F2009A F2010E F2011E P/BVPS MULTIPLE RELATIVE TO PEER GROUP
Tier 1 capital ratio 12.1% 14.4% 15.2% 140%
Tangible common equity to RWA 7.2% 9.3% 10.3% 10-y ear Av erage Relativ e P/B = 108% Current R elativ e P/B = 117%
Tangible common equity to tangible assets 2.5% 2.9% 3.1% 130%
Risk Weighted Assets 117,300 108,004 111,281 120%

110%
LOAN BOOK F2009A F2010E F2011E
Residential Mortgages 86,152 96,769 99,705 100%
Personal and credit cards 45,677 45,943 47,337
90%
Business and government 37,343 38,286 39,448
Gross Loans 169,172 180,998 186,490 80%
Acceptances 8,397 7,382 7,682 70%
Total Gross Loans & Acceptances 177,569 188,380 194,172
Sep-00

Sep-04

Sep-05

Sep-09

Sep-10
Sep-01

Sep-02

Sep-03

Sep-06

Sep-07

Sep-08

N otes :
(1) PC Ls as a % of av erage net loans and acceptances (ex cl. repos ).
(2) Total ACLs as a % of GILs.
(3) Ex cludes gains /(losses ) on inv estm ent sec urities.

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

29
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Transportation

Canadian National Railway


Stock Rating:
Sector Performer
Company
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight Class-leading Operating Efficiency
12-18 mo. Price Target $68.00
CNR-TSX (9/13/10) $65.57 „ CN is Canada's largest railway and one of seven North American Class 1 rail
Key Indices: Toronto companies. CN's network consists of approximately 21,100 route miles with
a network spanning three coasts: the Atlantic, the Pacific and the Gulf of
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) 11.0% Mexico.
52-week Range $50.75-$67.88
Shares Outstanding 468.3M
Float 466.9M Shrs „ In order to grow and deepen its market share, one of CN’s key focus is on
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 1,044,454 the “First Mile, Last Mile” operations initiative. CN looks to work with its
Market Capitalization $30,707.7M customers to redefine the order schedule, transitioning CN from a traditional
Dividend/Div Yield $1.08 / 1.6% rail carrier into supply chain management.
Fiscal Year Ends December
Book Value $24.98 per Shr „ While there is a growing concern over the impact of a slowing economy on
2010 ROE (E) 17.5% freight volumes, there has not been a slowdown in CN's traffic volumes. CN
LT Debt $6.3B
is the top performing North American Class 1 year to date, with originating
Preferred Nil
carload volumes up 20.8% year-over-year.
Common Equity $11.7B
Convertible Available No
„ CN continues to improve efficiency along its network as it expands the use
Earnings Per Share Current of distributed power on its locomotives, which results in improved train
2009 $3.24A velocity, lowers dwell time and improves fuel efficiency. CN is in a position
2010 $4.06E to lower its already industry-leading operating ratio.
2011 $4.52E
P/E
2009 20.2x
2010 16.2x Stock Price Performance
2011 14.5x

Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Canada's largest, and one of six Class 1 North
American rails. CN's 19,200 miles of rail spans across CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
Canada and south through the U.S., connecting to all its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
three coasts. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.cn.ca Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Jacob Bout, CFA Kevin Chiang
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-6766 1 (416) 594-7198
Jacob.Bout@cibc.ca Kevin.Chiang@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Class-leading Operating Efficiency - September 17, 2010

Canadian National Rail (CNR-TSX; CNI-NYSE)


Current Price: C$65.57
12- To 18-Month Price Target: C$68.00
All Figures in $ millions, except per share data
Company Profile
Share Price $65.57 Canadian National Railway (CN) is Canada’s largest railway, and one of seven Class 1 North
52 Week High $67.88 American rail companies. CN’s network consists of approximately 21,000 route miles of track
52 Week Low $50.75 spanning Canada and mid-America, connecting the three coasts, the Atlantic, the Pacific, and the
Shares Outstanding (Mln) 468 Gulf of Mexico.
Market Capitalization ($ Bln) $30.7
CN operates in three main regions – Western Canada Region, Eastern Canada Region, and the
Key Multiples 2009A 2010E 2011E Southern Region. Out of Western Canada, CN transports grains and fertilizers, coal, forest
CNR P/E 20.2x 16.2x 14.5x products, petroleum and chemicals, and metals and minerals. Out of the U.S., CN transports grains
Peer P/E 26.1x 16.9x 13.9x and fertilizers, coal, forest products, automotive vehicles and parts, and metals and minerals. Lastly,
from Eastern Canada, CN hauls forest products, automotive vehicles and parts, petroleum and
CNR P/CF 12.1x 10.7x 9.8x chemicals, and metals and minerals. Intermodal services are provided in all three regions.
Peer P/CF 13.0x 8.4x 7.5x

CNR EV/EBITDA 12.0x 9.7x 8.7x 2009 Sales Breakdown


Peer EV/EBITDA 9.9x 8.5x 7.5x
Intermodal
Note: Peer is North American Class 1s Grain & Fertilizers
20%
Metals & Minerals 21%
Operating Ratios 2009A 2010E 2011E 11%
Operating Ratio 67% 63% 62% Coal
Return On Equity 13% 18% 18% Automotiv e
7%
Current Ratio 1.20 1.05 1.23 5%
Quick Ratio 1.07 0.96 1.14 Forest
Petroleum &
LT Debt/Total Capitalization 25% 22% 22% 17%
Chemicals
Dividend Yield 1.5% 1.6% 1.6%
19%

Income Statement 2009A 2010E 2011E


Sales 7,367 8,167 8,724 Investment Thesis
EBITDA From Operations 3,196 3,799 4,108 More Levered To An Economic Recovery: CN is levered to an economic recovery given its
Earnings From Operations 1,536 1,909 2,101 exposure US economy and a rebound in housing (forestry is CN’s largest bulk volume).
FD EPS From Operations $3.24 $4.06 $4.52
EJ&E Acquisition / Update At Harrison Yard: The inclusion of EJ&E plus the changes made at
Cash Flow 2009A 2010E 2011E Harrison Yard should continue to drive an improvement in CN's operating leverage. CN expects
CFPS $5.40 $6.13 $6.70 EJ&E to yield $40 mln in synergies.
FCFPS $1.59 $1.72 $2.20
Bench strength: The Mongeau-Creel team may be the new version of the Tellier-Harrison team
Balance Sheet Q2/10A of old.
Cash + ST Investments 896
Current Assets 2,105 Pricing: Does it hold?
PP&E 22,801
Total Assets 26,127 Econmic Outlook: Forest products (17% of revenue) is tied to C$ and housing.
Current Liabilities 1,551
LT Debt 6,345 Pipeline of opportunities: Growth opportunities at Prince Rupert, potash, metallurgical coal.
Total Liabilities 14,450
Shareholders' Equity 11,677 "First Mile, Last Mile": The next phase of precision railroading with CN further integrating itself
into its cusotmers' supply chain.

Operating Ratio Return On Invested Capital (ROIC)


80%
16%
75%

70% 12%

65%
8%
60%

55% 4%
2010E

2011E
1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Source: Bloomberg, company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

31
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Transportation

Canadian Pacific Railway Limited


Stock Rating:
Sector Performer
Continued Focus On Operating Efficiency
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $63.00
CP-TSX (9/13/10) $63.56 „ CP is one of seven North American Class 1 rail companies providing freight
Key Indices: Toronto services across Canada from Montreal to Vancouver and into key centres in
the U.S. Midwest and Northeast with over a 15,400 mile network.
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) 12.5%
52-week Range $45.41-$65.82
Shares Outstanding 169.0M „ As CP continues to improve its network fluidity and reign in costs, the gap
Float 168.3M Shrs between its operating ratio versus its Class 1 peers should diminish. CP is
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 661,115 targeting an operating ratio in the low-70% range (Q2/10 was 77.8%).
Market Capitalization $10,741.6M
Dividend/Div Yield $1.08 / 1.7% „ CP remained committed to its core pricing target of 3%-4% annual growth.
Fiscal Year Ends December For 2011, ~50% of its contracts have been locked in, of which half benefit
Book Value $28.89 per Shr from contractual price increases (this should average 3%-4%), while the
2010 ROE (E) 12.1% remainder of contracts are tied to an index.
LT Debt $4,160.4M
Preferred Nil
Common Equity $4,882.0M „ CP faces less visibility for certain bulk commodities such as potash. In
Convertible Available No combination with tougher year-over-year comparables, these two factors
could be a headwind to volume growth in the second half of the year.
Earnings Per Share Current
2009 $2.54A
2010 $3.68E
2011 $4.25E
P/E
2009 25.0x
2010 17.3x Stock Price Performance
2011 15.0x

Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
CP is one of two Canadian Class 1 railways and has a
bulk freight orientation. It provides freight services CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
across Canada from Montreal to Vancouver and into key its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
centers in the US Midwest & Northeast. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.cpr.ca Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Jacob Bout, CFA Kevin Chiang
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-6766 1 (416) 594-7198
Jacob.Bout@cibc.ca Kevin.Chiang@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Continued Focus On Operating Efficiency - September 17, 2010

Canadian Pacific (CP-TSX, CP-NYSE)


Current Price: C$63.56
12- To 18-Month Price Target: C$63.00
All figures in $ millions, except per share data
Company Profile
Canadian Pacific Railway Company (CP) is one of seven Class 1 North American railroads
Share Price $63.56
and the second largest in Canada. The company owns approximately 10,800 miles of track. An
52 Week High $65.82
additional 4,700 miles of track are owned jointly, leased or operated under trackage rights. Of
52 Week Low $45.41 the total mileage operated, approximately 6,300 miles are located in western Canada, 2,200
Shares Outstanding (Mln) 169 miles in eastern Canada, 5,800 miles in the US Midwest and 1,200 miles in the US Northeast.
Market Capitalization ($ Bln) $10.7
CP’s railway feeds directly into the US from the East and West Coasts. Agreements with other
Key Multiples 2009 2010E 2011E carriers extend its market reach east of Montreal in Canada, through the US and into Mexico.
CP P/E 25.0x 17.3x 15.0x CP transports bulk commodities, merchandise freight and intermodal traffic.
Peer P/E 26.1x 16.9x 13.9x
2009A Sales Breakdown
CP P/CF 28.7x 9.6x 8.0x
Peer P/CF 13.0x 8.4x 7.5x
Forestry
CP EV/EBITDA 10.7x 9.3x 8.0x Coal Sulphur & Fertilizer 4%
7% Industrial Products
Peer EV/EBITDA 9.9x 8.5x 7.5x 10%
18%
Operating Ratios 2009 2010E 2011E Automotiv e
Operating Ratio 81.6% 77.4% 75.1% 5%
Grain Intermodal
Return On Equity 9% 12% 12%
27% 29%
Current Ratio 1.02 1.25 1.73
Quick Ratio 0.94 1.07 1.54
LT Debt/Total Capitalization 47% 46% 42%
Dividend Yield 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% Investment Thesis
Focus On Cost Cutting And Improving Operating Efficiency: CP is considered the
Income Statement 2009 2010E 2011E Class 1 with the most opportunity for improvement in operating ratio (it has the highest operating
Sales 4,403 4,895 5,185 ratio amongst the major Class 1s). We estimate for every 1-point improvement in CP's operating
EBITDA From Operations 1,309 1,601 1,786 ratio adds ~$0.25 in EPS. CP targeting an operating ratio in the low-70% range.
Earnings From Operations 424 623 719
FD EPS From Operations $2.54 $3.68 $4.25 Grain: CTA ruling for volume-related adjustment ($2.59/t) on the railway revenue entitlement –
Will fight retroactive portion (Aug/07-Feb/08 = $0.08/share).
Cash Flow 2009 2010E 2011E
CFPS $2.21 $6.60 $7.99 DM&E: Expect EBITDA to double from $100 million to $200 million in five years. Acquisition
FCFPS -$2.13 $2.10 $3.26 approved.

Balance Sheet Q2/10 Deregulation Of Canadian Grain: Ability to increase “turn” – grain handlers on side.
Cash + ST Investments 374
Current Assets 1,151 Potash / Coal: Risk of Canpotex diversifying potash contract post-2012 (CP currently the
PP&E 12,045 exclusive shipper for Canpotex) and Teck moving more coal tonnage through other rail
Total Assets 13,739 carriers.
Current Liabilities 1,020
LT Debt 4,160 Pension: Pension expense will be headwind over the next 3-4 years.
Total Liabilities 8,857
Shareholders' Equity 4,882

Operating Ratio Return On Invested Capital (ROIC)

84% 16%

82%
80% 12%
78%
76%
8%
74%
72%
70% 4%
2010E

2011E
1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Source: Bloomberg, company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

33
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Banks

Canadian Western Bank


Stock Rating:
Sector Underperformer
Strong Performance And Positive Outlook Support
Sector Weighting:
Premium Valuation
Overweight
12-18 mo. Price Target $26.00
CWB-TSX (9/13/10) $25.50 „ CWB is the seventh-largest Canadian bank by market capitalization, with
Key Indices: TSXFinSv assets of $12 billion as at Q3/F10. Over the last 12 months, CWB derived
91% of its net income from the Banking & Trust segment and 9% from the
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) 10.0% Insurance segment.
52-week Range $18.55-$26.59
Shares Outstanding 66.5M
Float 66.5M Shrs „ Although we expect only modest growth in net interest income for the
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 122,000 banks, we look for CWB to be a notable positive outlier. While material
Market Capitalization $1,696.9M margin expansion from current levels will be more difficult to attain, we
Dividend/Div Yield $0.44 / 1.7% forecast that asset growth will easily be the best in the group in F2011.
Fiscal Year Ends October
Book Value $13.65 per Shr „ Our positive long-term bias is based on a favorable geographic footprint,
2010 ROE (E) 14.6% proven business model and strong management. We look for either a better
LT Debt $315.0M
relative valuation or evidence that earnings growth is set to accelerate in
Preferred $209.75M
order to become more positive in the near term.
Common Equity $908.4M
Convertible Available No
„ On a P/E basis, CWB trades at a 14% premium to its peers, slightly above
Earnings Per Share Current its 12% historical average. On a P/B basis, it trades at a 5% discount
2009 $1.51A compared to a 10-year avg. of 8%. This firm should benefit from a better
2010 $1.95E outlook for Western Canada, making a premium valuation appropriate.
2011 $2.00E
P/E
2009 16.9x
2010 13.1x Stock Price Performance
2011 12.8x

Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
CWB is focused on Western Canada. It specializes in
commercial loans, energy loans, construction and real CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
estate project financing, and industrial equipment its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
financing. It also offers retail banking. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.cwbankgroup.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Robert Sedran, CFA Mehmed Rizvanovic, CFA investment decision.
1 (416) 594-7874 (416) 594-7283 See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
Robert.Sedran@cibc.ca Mike.Rizvanovic@cibc.ca
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Meny Grauman, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-3723
Meny.Grauman@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Strong Performance And Positive Outlook Support Premium Valuation - September 17, 2010

Canadian Western Bank


All Figures in $ millions, except per share data (excl. one-time items)
KEY MULTI PLES F2009A F2010E F2011E OUR THESIS
P/E Multiple 16.9x 13.1x 12.8x We believe this bank has the best organic growth profile in Canadian banking. However, our estimates
Peer average 12.4x 11.4x still imply a better near-term outlook for the larger banks in our coverage universe, which when
combined with the bank-group high multiples at which the shares trade, tempers our enthusiasm. In
Q3-10
order to become more positive, we look for either a better relative valuation or evidence that the
P/BVPS 1.9x
earnings growth rate is set to accelerate. We currently rate the stock Sector Underperformer.
Peer average 2.0x
OPERATING PERFORMANCE F2009A F2010E F2011E SEGMENTED EARNINGS CONTRIBUTION
Core EPS $1.51 $1.95 $2.00
Annual EPS growth (4.9% ) 28.9% 2.4% 100% 8.1% 8.2% 8. 4% 9.3%
Core ROE 13.6% 16.4% 14.6%
Efficiency ratio 47.7% 44.1% 45.3%
75%
Operating leverage (YoY) (13.1% ) 17.0% (0.3% )
CREDIT METRICS F2009A F2010E F2011E
(1) 50% 91.9% 91.8% 91. 6%
Loan loss rate 0.15% 0.21% 0.22% 90.7%

F2009A Q3-10
Gross impaired loans 137.9 150.0 25%
Specific ACLs 14.3 16.7
Total ACLs 75.5 75.7 0%
(2)
Classical Coverage ratio 55% 51% F2007A F2008A F2009A Q3-10
Specific ACLs to GILs 10% 11%
General ACLs as % of Gross Loans 0.66% 0.57% Banking & Trust Insurance

KEY EARNI NGS DRIVERS F2009A F2010E F2011E FORWARD P/E MULTIPLE RELATIVE TO PEER GROUP (based on consensus estimates)
Core net interest income 236.4 325.7 355.7 180%
% change 3.4% 37.8% 9.2% 10-y r Av g Relativ e Fw d P/ E: 112% C urrent R elativ e F w d P/E: 114%
Provision for credit losses 13.5 20.9 23.2 160%
% change 13% 54% 11% 140%
Non-interest expenses 156.5 189.5 206.6 120%
% change 15.8% 21.1% 9.0%
100%
CAPI TAL MEASURES F2009A F2010E F2011E
80%
Tier 1 capital ratio 11.3% 11.6% 12.6%
Tangible common equity to RWA 8.1% 8.3% 9.0% 60%
Tangible common equity to tangible assets 6.5% 7.0% 7.6% Sep-00 Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10
Risk Weighted Assets 9,396 10,345 10,872 Current Relativ e Fw d P/E 10-y r Av g R elativ e

LOAN BOOK F2009A F2010E F2011E P/BVPS MULTIPLE RELATIVE TO PEER GROUP
Residential mortgages 2,282 2,348 2,467 160%
Other 7,029 7,960 8,366 10-y r Av g Relativ e P/ B: 92% Current R elativ e P/B: 95%
Total Gross Loans 9,312 10,308 10,833 140%

120%

100%

80%

60%
N otes : Sep-00 Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10
(1) PC Ls as a % of av erage net loans (ex c l. repos).
C urrent Relativ e P/ B 10-y r Av g R elativ e
(2) Total ACLs as a % of GILs.

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

35
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Business & Professional Services

CGI Group Inc.


Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Company Profile
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $18.00
GIB.A-TSX (9/13/10) $14.66 „ CGI is Canada's largest independent IT service outsourcing and integration
Key Indices: Toronto, NYSE company. CGI's profitability is strong, with EBIT margins of 12% in F2009
now approaching 14%. These earnings translate mainly into free cash
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) 8.0% (~$100 million/quarter) with little internal capex requirement.
52-week Range $11.34-$16.80
Shares Outstanding 290.2M
Float 251.7M Shrs „ While earnings are strong, organic revenue growth has been impacted by
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. NM the economy (0.7% Y/Y in Q3 in constant currency). However, bookings
Market Capitalization $4,254.3M appear solid, with an LTM book-to-bill of 1.13x. U.S. operations appear to
Dividend/Div Yield Nil / Nil be driving new order activity (1.75x book-to-bill in F2009).
Fiscal Year Ends September
Book Value $7.61 per Shr „ The company completed its US$1.07 billion acquisition of Stanley on August
2010 ROE (E) 14.9% 17. The acquisition triples the size of CGI's U.S. government business and
Net Cash $35.00M
allows it to re-enter the defense market. We expect that the acquisition will
Preferred Nil
be immediately accretive (~$0.10 EPS/year) plus synergies.
Common Equity $2,207.0M
Convertible Available No
„ Going forward, we expect renewed growth in F2011 given the Stanley
Earnings Per Share Current acquisition, share buybacks (share count down 9% Y/Y in Q3) and new
2009 $1.02A signings. We rate CGI Sector Outperformer with an $18 price target.
2010 $1.12E
2011 $1.30E
P/E
2009 14.4x
2010 13.1x Stock Price Performance
2011 11.3x
2010E EPS exclude FQ1 tax adjustment.

Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
CGI Group Inc. is Canada's largest independent IT
service outsourcing and integration company. CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.cgi.ca Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Paul Lechem Stephanie Price, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-6429 1 (416) 594-7047
Paul.Lechem@cibc.ca Stephanie.Price@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Company Profile - September 17, 2010

CGI Group (GIB.A-TSX) Sector Outperformer


Current Price: $14.66 Paul Lechem (416-956-6429) Paul.Lechem@cibc.ca
12 to 18 month Price Target: $18.00 Stephanie Price, CFA (416-594-7047) Stephanie.Price@cibc.ca
All Figures in $ millions, except per share data
Key Statistics Investment Thesis
Share Price $14.66 Net Cash (Debt) (1,075.4)
Shares Outstanding 277.0 Enterprise Value 5,136.2 CGI Group Inc. is Canada's largest independent IT services company. The
Market Capitalization 4,060.8 company's revenues are derived from Canada (55-60% of revenues), US (30-
35%) and rest of world (5-10%), and split roughly equally between outsourcing
Key Multiples F2009A F2010E F2011E and systems integration / consulting. The company generates strong
profitability and cash flow, used to date on debt repayment and share
P/E 14.4x 13.1x 11.3x
buybacks, and continues to evaluate acquisition opportunities.
EV/EBITDA 7.7x 7.6x 6.5x
Peers (Average)
P/E 16.2x 16.8x 14.0x
EV/EBITDA 5.6x 7.3x 6.6x

Profitability F2009A F2010E F2011E


EBITDA Margin 17.3% 18.2% 17.4%
Net Margin 8.3% 9.6% 8.1%
Revenue Growth vs. Book-to-Bill
Cash Per Share 1.06 0.30 1.05
20% 2.00
Net Debt/EBITDA NA 1.59 0.83
15% 1.75

Orgainc Growth

Book to Bill
10% 1.50
Income Statement F2009A F2010E F2011E
5% 1.25
Sales 3825.2 3723.6 4562.5 0% 1.00
Growth (y/y) 3.2% -2.7% 22.5% -5% 0.75
Operating Expenses 3161.8 3045.4 3769.9 -10% 0.50
EBITDA 663.4 678.1 792.6

Q4-F2005
Q3-F2006

Q2-F2007

Q1-F2008
Q1-F2002

Q4-F2002

Q3-F2003

Q2-F2004
Q1-F2005

Q4-F2008

Q3-F2009

Q2-F2010
Amortization 204.4 187.3 222.0
EBIT 459.0 490.8 570.6
Constant Currency Revenue Growth Book-to-bill
Interest, FX & Other (17.9) (15.3) (30.4)
EBT 441.1 475.5 540.2
Tax Expense (Recovery) 125.2 116.7 172.9
Adj. Net Income (Loss) 316.5 328.1 367.4
Cash Flow
Adj. FD EPS $1.02 $1.12 $1.30 200
Cash Flow ($mlns.)

150
Free Cash Flow Performance F2009A F2010E F2011E 100
Cash Flow From Operations 630.2 585.0 557.5 50
Capital Expenditures (69.2) (41.4) (37.0) 0

Free Cash Flow 561.0 543.6 520.5 (50)


(100)

Balance Sheet F2009A F2010E F2011E


10
Q4 0 02

Q3 0 02

Q2 0 03

Q1 04

Q4 0 05

Q3 0 05

Q2 0 06

Q1 0 07

Q4 0 08

Q3 0 08

Q2 0 09
20
20
2

Cash & ST & LT Investments 343.4 92.5 308.8


-F

-F

-F

-F

-F

-F

-F

-F

-F

-F

-F

-F
Q1

Goodwill and Intangible Assets 1674.8 2517.4 2517.4 Free Cash Flow
Total Assets 3899.9 4639.5 4921.1 4 per. Mov. Avg. (Free Cash Flow)

Debt 283.1 1167.9 967.9


Total Liabilities 1624.7 2433.2 2371.6
Shareholder's Equity 2275.3 2206.3 2549.4
Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

37
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Canadian Asset Managers

CI Financial Corp.
Stock Rating:
Sector Underperformer
Returning Lots Of Cash To Shareholders As Growth
Sector Weighting:
Slows
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $18.75
CIX-TSX (9/13/10) $20.34 „ CI is the third-largest mutual fund manager in Canada with $63.2 billion in
Key Indices: Toronto retail AUM. Due to its scale and a management team that is very focused on
the bottom line, the company is generating a pre-tax profit margin in
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) NM excess of 30% and annual free cash flow of more than $300MM.
52-week Range $17.69-$22.67
Shares Outstanding 288.1M
Float 185.6M Shrs „ Growth has become more challenging (AUM is up 0.6% YTD) and
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 310,000 management is aggressively returning cash to shareholders. The dividend
Market Capitalization $5,860.0M has been increased by 30% over the past year and roughly $100MM of
Dividend/Div Yield $0.78 / 3.8% stock has been repurchased. Further buybacks should be expected.
Fiscal Year Ends December
Book Value $5.51 per Shr „ It was recently announced that Stephen MacPhail will assume the CEO role
2011 ROE (E) 20.9% while Bill Holland will focus on strategic initiatives as Executive Chairman. Sun
LT Debt $667.7M
Life has been a very important partner for CI since 2002, but announced that
Preferred Nil
it is starting its own Canadian mutual fund company in 2010.
Common Equity $1,587.1M
Convertible Available No
„ CI trades at 16.7x forward 2011 earnings, a premium to other Canadian
Earnings Per Share Current asset managers at 12.1x and U.S. asset managers at 12.9x. We believe the
2009 $0.95A premium valuation that CI commands is too high given slowing growth. We
2010 $1.09E rate CI Sector Underperformer with an $18.75 price target.
2011 $1.22E
P/E
2009 21.4x
2010 18.7x Stock Price Performance
2011 16.7x

EBITDA ($ mlns.)
2009 $576.1A
2010 $646.2E
2011 $694.3E
EV/EBITDA
2009 10.7x
2010 9.5x
2011 8.9x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
CI Financial Corp. is a diversified wealth management
firm and one of Canada’s largest independent CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
Canadian-owned investment fund companies. its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.ci.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Paul Holden, CFA Kevin Cheng, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-8417 1 (416) 956-6676
Paul.Holden@cibc.ca Kevin.Cheng@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Returning Lots Of Cash To Shareholders As Growth Slows - September 17, 2010

CI Financial Corp. (CIX-TSX) Sector Underperformer


Current Price : C$20.34 Paul Holden, CFA (416-594-8417) Paul.holden@cibc.ca
12- To 18- Mth Price Target: C$18.75 Kevin Cheng, CFA (416-956-6676) Kevin.cheng@cibc.ca
All figures in millions except per share data

P/E Multiples 2009A 2010E 2011E Investment Thesis

CI Financial 21.4x 18.7x 16.7x CI Financial's premium valuation relative to its Canadian mutual fund peers should narrow as net
Canadian Asset Managers (ex-CI) 16.5x 14.6x 12.1x seg fund sales for the industry are expected to be less robust than in the previous three years. In
U.S. Asset Managers 20.2x 15.5x 12.9x addition, given the uncertainty surrounding CI's distribution agreement with Sun Life Financial,
CI's AUM growth outlook is less clear.
Key Financial Metrics ($ mns) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Management believes that the Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-SP) will remain a passive
shareholder in the near-term, which removes some upside potential. BNS owns 36% of CI and
1
EBITDA 656 576 646 694 is unlikely to complete the CI acquisition during our forecast period.
ROE 19.6% 17.3% 19.4% 20.9% However, we believe a multiple of 15.5x 2011E EPS is appropriate for CI in the absence of any
Dividends per Share 1.88 0.62 0.76 0.90 transaction with BNS. A premium versus the other Canadian fund managers is still justified
Average Retail AUM 60,218 55,389 62,838 66,735 based on CI's scale, profit margins, net sales and management's intention to return a high
Total Assets Under Administration 25,675 22,230 21,323 22,097 proportion of free cash flow to shareholders. Our valuation multiple equates to a price of
Gross Sales 11,604 8,575 10,165 11,358 approximately $18.75.
Gross Redemptions 9,851 7,124 8,569 9,541 Chart 1: CI Long term fund net sales ($ MM)
Net Sales 1,752 1,451 1,596 1,817
600,000

Income Statement ($ mns) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E 400,000

200,000
Revenue 1,512 1,218 1,345 1,430
Oper. Expenses 856 642 699 735 0
EBITDA 656 576 646 694
-200,000
Amortization of deferred sales commissions 147 164 173 178
Other amortization 14 7 8 7 -400,000
EBIT 495 405 465 509
-600,000
Interest Expense 42 24 16 19
EBT 402 308 408 440 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10
Tax Expense (Recovery) (17) 41 121 124 CI Long Term Net Sales CI Long Term Net Sales (12-mth m.a.)

Net Income 466 245 318 350 Chart 2: Forward P/E*


Operating EPS 1.74 0.95 1.09 1.22
25

Free Cash Flow ($ mns) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E


20 +1 std dev

CFO before changes in NWC 565 547 488 536 15 Av erage


Less: Commissions Paid (191) (153) (178) (207)
Free Cash Flow 374 394 310 329 10 -1 std dev

Free Cash Flow Per Share 1.33 1.35 1.07 1.14 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

* Fo rward fiscal year


1
adjusted for equity-based compensation

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

39
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Canadian Media

Cineplex Galaxy Income Fund


Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Tough Box Office Comparables Ahead; Concessions
Sector Weighting:
And Media Continue to Grow
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $23.00
CGX.UN-TSX (9/13/10) $21.15 „ Cineplex is the premier film exhibitor in Canada, with a commanding 67%
Key Indices: S&P/TSX Income Trust Composite market share of national box office revenues. Cineplex's size and scope
constitutes a material barrier to entry, while providing strategic importance
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) NM with film distributors, concession suppliers, and advertisers.
52-week Range $15.50-$21.59
Shares Outstanding 57.0M
Float 19.5M Shrs „ Canadian box office receipts are up 6.5% year to date, which has translated
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 86,419 into strong box office and concession gains for Cineplex this year. While
Market Capitalization $1,205.0M tough comparables will likely temper box office growth in H2, the forward
Dividend/Div Yield $1.26 / 6.0% film slate looks promising and positive momentum is expected to continue.
Fiscal Year Ends December
Book Value NM „ Given the success of 3D, Cineplex continues to ramp its digital rollout plans,
2010 ROE (E) NM with 280 digital projectors installed, of which 236 have 3D technology. Cineplex
LT Debt NA
is targeting ~30% of its screens to be 3D (currently 17%), which strongly
Preferred Nil
positions Cineplex to capitalize on remaining premium 3D releases this year.
Common Equity $604.6M
Convertible Available Yes
„ With a very conservative payout below 60%, minimal refinancing risk, a
Distr. Cash Flow Generated Current healthy balance sheet, and a safe 6% yield, we believe Cineplex remains a
2009 $2.17A solid buy-and-hold income vehicle even as the company moves towards C-
2010 $2.35E corp status in 2011. We rate Cineplex Sector Outperformer.
2011 $2.38E
Payout Ratio
2009 58.1%
2010 53.6% Stock Price Performance
2011 52.9%

EBITDA ($ mlns.)
2009A $159.9
2010E $172.1
2011E $187.5

EV/EBITDA
2009A 9.2x
2010E 8.5x
2011E 7.8x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Cineplex Entertainment LP is the leading exhibitor of
motion pictures in the Canadian entertainment industry. CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
It currently includes 129 theatres and 1,328 screens its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
across Canada. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.cineplexodeon.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Robert Bek, CFA Tony Rizzi investment decision.
1 (416) 594-7454 1 (416) 594-7299 See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
Bob.Bek@cibc.ca Tony.Rizzi@cibc.ca
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Michael Lee, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-7907
Michaelc.Lee@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Tough Box Office Comparables Ahead; Concessions And Media Continue to Grow - September 17, 2010

Cineplex Galaxy Income Fund (CGX.UN - TSX) Sector Outperformer


Current Price : C$21.15 Robert Bek, CFA (416-594-7454) Bob.Bek@cibc.ca
12- To 18- Month Price Target: C$23.00 Tony Rizzi (416-594-7299) Tony Rizzi@cibc.ca
Michael Lee, CFA (416-594-7907) Michaelc.Lee@cibc.ca
All figures in millions except per share data
EV / EBITDA Multiples 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Company Profile

Cineplex Galaxy - 9.2x 8.5x 7.8x Cineplex is the largest exhbitor in Canada, with a commanding 67% share of national box
Regal Entertainment - 7.4x 7.0x 6.3x office revenues, and its size and scope consitutes a material barrier to entry, while
providing strategic importance with film distributors, concession suppliers, and advertisers.
Cinemark Holdings - 7.2x 7.2x 7.2x
Cineplex also operates a national in-theater advertising network with 94% market share.
Carmike Cinemas - 7.7x 6.0x 5.3x

P / E Multiples 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Investment Thesis

Cineplex Galaxy - 22.3x 17.3x 17.3x We believe that CGX will gain stronger earnings potential as the premium for 3D becomes
Regal Entertainment - 19.8x 19.8x 19.8x more apparent over the next few years. CGX is targeting ~30% of its screens to be 3D
Cinemark Holdings - 18.4x 13.4x 12.1x equipped (currently at 17%), and will become a more visible contributor to top-line growth.
Carmike Cinemas - NM NM 11.0x CGX has announced plans for conversion to a corporation on January 1, 2011 maintaining
its $1.26 cash distribution and high-yield structure. CGX has a tax pool in excess of $600
Key Financial Metrics 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E million (and can be utilized at a rate of ~9.0% per year) which can be used to shelter its
earnings power by offsetting its cash tax liability in the coming years.
Distributable Cash Flow Yield 9.6% 11.1% 12.1% 12.2% We continue to recommend CGX to income-oriented investors, given its material tax pool
Payout Ratio 66.9% 58.8% 53.8% 53.2% and strong yield. 3D premiums should also be a catalyst for sustained earnings growth
Long-term Debt / EBITDA 2.3x 2.1x 1.9x 1.8x over the longer term.

Income Statement 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Chart 1: Revenues & EBITDA By Segment (2010E)

100%
Revenue 849.7 964.3 1,045.6 1,119.4 10.3% 17.0%
OpEx 704.7 804.4 873.5 931.9 75% 29.4%
EBITDA 144.9 159.9 172.1 187.5 37.8%
Amortization 67.4 80.4 79.7 82.0 50%
EBIT 73.7 77.0 92.0 105.5
Net Interest Expense 25.4 23.0 22.7 22.6 60.3%
25% 45.2%
EBT 34.2 53.9 69.3 82.9
Tax Expense (Recovery) (0.3) 1.1 (0.4) 13.3 0%
Revenues EBITDA
Net Income 34.5 53.4 69.7 69.7 Box Office Concessions Media
Adj. FD EPU 0.60 0.95 1.22 1.22

Distributable Cash Flow 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Key Operating Statistics (Last Reported Qtr.)

EBITDA 144.9 159.9 172.1 187.5 Q2/09 Q2/10 y/y Growth


Less: Attendance ('000)
Maintenance Capex 11.6 12.5 12.5 12.6 Attendance 18,156.0 16,667.0 -8.2%
Attendance per Screen 13.7 12.4 -9.2%
Net Interest Expense 25.0 22.2 22.3 22.6
Box Office
Cash Taxes 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.3
Other 2.4 2.8 3.6 3.6 Revenue per Patron $8.34 $8.67 4.0%
Film Cost % of Revenues 53.8% 54.2%
Distributable Cash 105.9 122.4 133.8 135.4 Concessions
Per Unit 1.85 2.17 2.35 2.38 Revenue per Patron $4.09 $4.36 6.6%
Distributions Paid 70.9 72.0 72.0 72.0 Concession Cost % of Revenues 20.4% 20.7%
Per Unit 1.24 1.26 1.26 1.26 Theatre Screens
At Period End 1,328 1,342 1.1%

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

41
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Canadian Enterprise Software

Constellation Software Inc.


Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Company Profile
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target C$52.00
CSU-TSX (9/13/10) C$43.50 „ Constellation provides software solutions for a number of vertical markets. The
Key Indices: None company is an active consolidator, making 27 acquisitions since early 2009.
Constellation typically acquires small vendors (<$5 million in revenues), and
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) NM drives operational efficiencies and synergies with existing operations.
52-week Range C$29.00-C$45.00
Shares Outstanding 21.2M
Float 10.0M Shrs „ In 2009, Constellation made several larger acquisitions (PT Solutions, a
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. NM division of Medisolution and Integrated Dealer Systems). These companies
Market Capitalization $897.1M have sizeable revenues but a history of poor profitability, which
Dividend/Div Yield C$0.26 / 0.6% Constellation is attempting to reverse.
Fiscal Year Ends December
Book Value $5.35 per Shr „ Despite an active acquisition program, Constellation's balance sheet
2010 ROE (E) 64.0% remains strong ($29 million in net debt/0.3x net debt:EBITDA ratio) and
Net Debt $29.1M
cash flow can support ongoing activity, the pace of which is determined by
Preferred Nil
the availability of suitable targets rather than internal constraints.
Common Equity $113.4M
Convertible Available No
„ Constellation's business model has proven resilient, with 55% of revenues
Earnings Per Share Current from recurring maintenance fees and a diversified mix of vertical market
2009 $2.95A solutions buffering the business through the downturn. We rate
2010 $3.70E Constellation Sector Outperformer with a C$52 price target.
2011 $4.14E
P/E
2009 14.4x
2010 11.5x Stock Price Performance
2011 10.2x

EBITDA ($ mlns.)
2009 $88.1A
2010 $104.5E
2011 $115.6E
EV/EBITDA
2009 10.2x
2010 8.6x
2011 7.7x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in US dollars, unless otherwise stated.(C$1.027:US$1)
Constellation Software acquires, manages and builds
vertical market software businesses. CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.csisoftware.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Paul Lechem Stephanie Price, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-6429 1 (416) 594-7047
Paul.Lechem@cibc.ca Stephanie.Price@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Company Profile - September 17, 2010

Constellation (CSU-TSX) Sector Outperformer


Current Price: C$43.50 Paul Lechem (416) 956-6429 paul.lechem@cibc.ca
12 to 18 month Price Target: C$52.00 Stephanie Price, CFA (416) 594-7047 stephanie.price@cibc.ca
All Figures in US$ mlns, except per share data
Key Statistics Investment Thesis
Share Price $42.35 Net Cash (Debt) (29.1) Constellation Software acquires, manages and builds vertical market software businesses.
Shares Outstanding 21.2 Enterprise Value 926.1 The company has built up several business across the public (transit, schools, justice, local
Market Capitalization 897.0 governments) and private (home builders, golf clubs) markets. About 60% of the company's
revenues are generated from annual maintenance contracts.
Key Multiples F2009A F2010E F2011E
We view Constellation's strengths as follows:
P/E 14.4x 11.4x 10.2x (1) Operational discipline - balancing profitability and investment for growth
EV/EBITDA 10.5x 8.9x 8.0x (2) Acquisition discipline - with Constellation seeking to find synergistic acquisitions at a
Peers (Average) reasonable price
P/E 16.9x 14.6x 12.6x (3) Capital allocation - with the company repatriating excess capital from the operating units
EV/EBITDA 10.3x 9.0x 8.0x to headquarters where the company can (re-)distribute to the highest return opportunities
(be they internal investments or acquisitions)
Profitability F2009A F2010E F2011E
Gross Margin 62.0% 59.1% 60.8%
EBITDA 20.1% 17.6% 18.8%
Net Revenue Growth
Adjusted Net Margin 14.3% 13.2% 14.3% 70% 62%
Cash Per Share 1.57 0.69 2.76 60% 51%
47% 47% 50%
Net Debt/EBITDA 0.11 0.43 0.01 50% 42%
35%
33% 35% 34% 34%
40% 28% 31%
29% 28%
2 8%
Income Statement F2009A F2010E F2011E 24%
22% 24%
30%
16%
14%
Sales 437.9 594.6 614.5 20% 10%
Growth (y/y) 32.5% 35.8% 3.4% 10%
Gross Profit 271.3 351.4 373.7 0%
Operating Expenses 183.2 246.9 258.1 -10%
EBITDA 88.1 104.5 115.6 -20%
Amortization (64.4) (71.3) (72.7)
Q1-F2005

Q3-F2005

Q1-F2006

Q3-F2006

Q1-F2007

Q3-F2007

Q1-F2008

Q3-F2008

Q1-F2009

Q3-F2009

Q1-F2010
EBIT 20.1 32.5 42.9
Interest, FX & Other (6.3) (3.3) (1.8)
EBT 17.5 29.9 41.1
Organic Growth Acquired Growth
Tax Expense (Recovery) 7.2 11.8 16.0
Net revenue growth
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) 62.4 78.4 87.8
Adj. FD EPS $2.95 $3.70 $4.14

Free Cash Flow F2009A F2010E F2011E


Cash Flow From Operations 82.6 80.2 94.7 25% Profitability
Capital Expenditures (3.5) (6.5) (5.0) 20%
Free Cash Flow 79.1 73.7 89.7 15%
Free Cash Flow Per Share $3.74 $3.48 $4.23
10%

Balance Sheet F2009A F2010E F2011E 5%


Cash & ST Investments 33.2 14.7 58.4 0%
Q1-F2005

Q3-F2005

Q1-F2006

Q3-F2006

Q1-F2007

Q3-F2007

Q1-F2008

Q3-F2008

Q1-F2009

Q3-F2009

Q1-F2010

Goodwill and Intangible Assets 228.8 277.9 249.2


Total Assets 480.5 529.5 557.4
Debt 43.1 59.5 59.5
Total Liabilities 372.4 407.8 416.5
EBITDA Margin Adjusted Net Margin
Shareholder's Equity 108.1 121.8 140.9

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

43
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Canadian Media

Corus Entertainment Inc.


Stock Rating:
Sector Performer
Return Of Ad Spend In Radio And TV Continue To
Sector Weighting:
Drive EBITDA Growth
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $21.50
CJR.B-TSX (9/13/10) $21.19 „ Corus is an integrated Canadian media and entertainment company with
Key Indices: Toronto strong established brands in television, radio, and content. Corus' primary
assets include a variety of specialty TV networks, 50 radio stations, and an
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) 8.5% international content group specializing in children's programming.
52-week Range $15.68-$21.43
Shares Outstanding 81.9M
Float 79.4M Shrs „ The Television segment, responsible for nearly 70% of revenues, continues
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. NM to post solid gains, driven by both strong subscriber numbers and
Market Capitalization $1,735.1M advertising growth. This is led largely by the Corus Kids segment, which
Dividend/Div Yield $0.60 / 2.8% has seen strengthening ratings and posted double-digit ad gains.
Fiscal Year Ends August
Book Value $11.70 per Shr „ Corus' recent decision to divest its 11 underperforming Quebec radio assets
2010 ROE (E) NM for $80MM is a small positive, as the assets represented an anchor for
LT Debt $444.8M
overall margins, and not a strong strategic fit. With little success improving
Preferred Nil
the economics, selling the stations represents a better use of capital.
Common Equity $958.2M
Convertible Available No
„ Overall, we remain positively inclined towards Corus. With consumer
Earnings Per Share Current confidence returning and ad tone improving, the outlook appears optimistic.
2009 $1.45A As advertisers return to historical spending levels, the cost-cutting
2010 $1.55E implemented by the company should continue to drive growth in EBITDA.
2011 $1.64E
P/E
2009 14.6x
2010 13.7x Stock Price Performance
2011 12.9x

EBITDA ($ mlns.)
2009A $251.2
2010E $266.8
2011E $287.9

EV/EBITDA
2009A 9.4x
2010E 8.9x
2011E 8.2x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Corus Entertainment Inc. is one of Canada's largest
radio broadcasters, and among the leaders in specialty CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
TV and children's programming. The Shaw family its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
controls Corus. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.corusent.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Robert Bek, CFA Tony Rizzi investment decision.
1 (416) 594-7454 1 (416) 594-7299 See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
Bob.Bek@cibc.ca Tony.Rizzi@cibc.ca
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Michael Lee, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-7907
Michaelc.Lee@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Return Of Ad Spend In Radio And TV Continue To Drive EBITDA Growth - September 17, 2010

Corus Entertainment Inc. (CJR.B - TSX) Sector Performer


Current Price: C$21.19 Robert Bek, CFA (416-594-7454) Bob.Bek@cibc.ca
12- To 18- Month Price Target: C$21.50 Tony Rizzi (416-594-7299) Tony Rizzi@cibc.ca
Michael Lee, CFA (416-594-7907) Michaelc.Lee@cibc.ca
All figures in millions except per share data
EV / EBITDA Multiples 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Company Profile

Corus Entertainment - 9.4x 8.9x 8.2x Corus is a Canadian based media and entertainment company with interests in radio
Astral Media - 9.6x 9.0x 8.5x broadcasting, television broadcasting, and the production and distribution of children's
U.S. Specialty TV Peers - 13.9x 11.0x 9.7x media content. The principle assets include 50 radio stations; a variety of pay and specialty
TV networks; and Nelvana, an international kids content producer/distributor.
U.S. Media Conglomerate Peers - 8.9x 7.6x 7.0x

P / E Multiples 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Investment Thesis

Corus Entertainment - 14.6x 13.7x 12.9x Corus offers investors a diversified revenue stream, generating a large portion of sales
Astral Media - 13.7x 13.1x 12.0x (~33%) from subscriber-related affiliate fees which are more stable than ad revenues,
U.S. Specialty TV Peers - 27.8x 21.5x 18.4x giving good downside protection.As Canada's 2nd largest radio operator, Corus' dominant
position helps reduce volatility associated with the cyclical nature of the business.
U.S. Media Conglomerate Peers - 20.5x 14.1x 12.3x
The Television segment continues to post solid gains, driven by strong conditions at Corus
Key Financial Metrics 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Kids, the development of new specialty channels, and increased penetration of digital
boxes. Radio is showing solid signs of recovering, and we expect the positive pace to
continue as ad markets improve.
Free Cash Flow Yield 8.0% 6.4% 2.6% 5.8%
Payout Ratio 38.0% 50.4% 135.1% 59.7% Overall, we continue to see many positives to the story for Corus in F2010. While ad
Net Debt / EBITDA 2.7x 2.6x 2.5x 1.9x visibility is a concern, consumer confidence has increased and ad tone has improved, and
Effective Tax Rate 20.9% 1288.3% 23.4% 32.0% the outlook for F2010 appears more optimistic.

Income Statement 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Chart 1: Revenues & EBITDA By Segment (2010E)
100%
Revenue 787.2 788.7 839.2 891.0
31.2% 22.0%
OpEx 535.0 537.6 572.4 603.1 75%
EBITDA 252.1 251.2 266.8 287.9
Depreciation 22.1 20.7 23.6 28.0 50%
EBIT 230.1 230.5 243.2 259.9 78.0%
68.8%
Interest Expense 41.3 37.4 46.8 54.2 25%
EBT 170.0 4.4 185.3 205.7
Tax Expense 35.5 56.4 43.4 65.8 0%
Revenues EBITDA
Net Income 129.8 (56.6) 135.6 133.6 Television Radio
Adj. FD EPS 1.40 1.45 1.55 1.64

Free Cash Flow 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Key Operating Statistics (Last Reported Qtr.)
Q3/09 Q3/10 y/y Growth
EBITDA 252.1 251.2 266.8 287.9 Television Revenues
Plus: Program & Film Rights Amortization 174.1 185.1 195.3 175.0 Kids 50.3 57.4 14.1%
Less: Specialty and Pay 79.5 89.6 12.7%
Program & Film Rights Payment 198.2 232.5 225.8 215.0 Radio Revenues
Capex 17.6 22.5 87.9 30.0 West 25.1 25.1 0.3%
Cash Taxes 42.8 42.7 61.6 73.0 Ontario 20.5 24.5 19.1%
Cash Interest 41.3 37.4 46.8 54.2 Quebec and Other 19.9 21.8 9.6%
Movie Central ('000)
Subscribers 951.0 970.0 2.0%
Operating Free Cash Flow (FCF) 126.3 101.1 40.0 90.7
Net Additions 30.0 (3.0) NM
Operating FCF Per Share 1.50 1.27 0.49 1.11
Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

45
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Canadian Enterprise Software

Descartes Systems Group Inc.


Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Company Profile
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $7.50
DSGX-OTC (9/13/10) $6.11 „ Descartes provides IT solutions to the logistics industry (freight booking,
Key Indices: NASDAQ shipment tracking, etc.). In recent years, Descartes expanded into the trade
and compliance market (automating customs filings) and is increasing its
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) 10.0% focus on mobile resource management (truck routing and scheduling).
52-week Range $4.49-$6.76
Shares Outstanding 61.5M
Float 60.0M Shrs „ The economic downturn reduced shipping volumes significantly, impacting
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 20,000 Descartes' transaction-based revenues. However the company continued to
Market Capitalization $375.6M grow its business, given acquisitions and new product sales. Descartes now
Dividend/Div Yield Nil / Nil sees shipping volumes stabilizing.
Fiscal Year Ends January
Book Value $3.10 per Shr „ The company recently deployed ~$40 million to acquire Porthus, positioning
2010 ROE (E) 13.1% itself for the upcoming pan-European customs filing standard. This is a
Net Cash $58.50M
sizable purchase, but Descartes is likely to continue with further acquisitions
Preferred Nil
through the year, as its cash position remains strong.
Common Equity $190.5M
Convertible Available No
„ Going forward, we expect Descartes to become more aggressive in building
EBITDA ($ mlns.) Current out its compliance and routing & scheduling businesses. We foresee further
2010 $19.3A upside as the company pursues its growth strategy. We rate Descartes
2011 $25.1E Sector Outperformer with a $7.50 price target.
2012 $31.7E
EV/EBITDA
2010 16.6x
2011 12.7x Stock Price Performance
2012 10.1x

Earnings Per Share


2010 $0.36A
2011 $0.40E
2012 $0.51E
P/E
2010 17.0x
2011 15.3x
2012 12.0x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in US dollars, unless otherwise stated.
A provider of messaging and value-added IT solutions to
the logistics and transportation markets. CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.descartes.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Paul Lechem Stephanie Price, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-6429 1 (416) 594-7047
Paul.Lechem@cibc.ca Stephanie.Price@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Company Profile - September 17, 2010

Descartes (DSGX-OTC) Sector Outperformer


Current Price: $6.11 Paul Lechem (416-956-6429) Paul.Lechem@cibc.ca
12 to 18 month Price Target: $7.50 Stephanie Price, CFA (416-594-7047) Stephanie.Price@cibc.ca
All Figures in US$ mlns., except per share data
Key Statistics Investment Thesis
Share Price $6.11 Net Cash (Debt) 58.5 Descartes is a provider of value-added IT solutions to the logistics and
Shares Outstanding 61.5 Enterprise Value 317.13 transportation markets. The company primarily offers its solutions through a
Market Capitalization 375.65 pay-for-use arrangement rather than up-front license fees. We see growth
opportunities in several areas:
1) introducing new services, including customs import/export filiings;
Key Multiples F2010A F2011E F2012E
2) consolidating a highly fragmented market;
P/E 16.9x 15.1x 12.1x 3) increasing customer share of wallet, converting in-house processing to a
EV/EBITDA 15.7x 12.6x 10.0x (Descartes) outsourced offering.
Peers (Average)
P/E 21.8x 20.8x 18.0x
EV/EBITDA 13.4x 11.8x 8.9x

Profitability F2010A F2011E F2012E


Gross Margin 68.6% 66.8% 68.5% Quarterly R evenues
EBITDA Margin 27.5% 25.8% 26.7% 30 80%

Revenues ($mlns.)
Net Margin 19.5% 4.7% 9.4%

Y/Y Growth (% )
25 60%
Cash Per Share $0.28 $0.20 $0.16 20 40%
Net Debt/EBITDA NA NA NA 15 20%
10 0%
5 -20%
Income Statement F2010A F2011E F2012E 0 -40%
Sales 73.8 97.5 119.0
1- 00

1- 0 1

F 4

F 5

F 7

F 8

1
1 - 02

1- 03

F 6

F 9

F2 0
Q 20 0

Q 2 00

01
Q 200

Q 2 00

Q 200

Q 200

Q 2 01
Growth (y/y) 11.7% 32.2% 22.0%
20

0
F2

F2

F2
F

F
1-

1-

1-

1-

1-

1-

1-

1-
Gross Profit 50.6 65.2 81.5
Q

Q
Operating Expenses 35.6 43.2 52.7 Total Revenues y/y growth
Adjusted EBITDA 20.3 25.1 31.7
Amortization (8.8) (13.5) (12.5)
Interest 0.3 0.2 0.2
EBT 6.7 8.0 18.5
Tax Expense (Recovery) (7.6) 3.4 7.2
Net Income (Loss) 14.4 4.6 11.2 Cash / Free Cash Flow
Adj. FD EPS $0.36 $0.40 $0.51
250 10

Free Cash Flow F2010A F2011E F2012E 200 5

Cash Flow From Operations 16.5 12.2 27.1 150


0
$mlns.

Capital Expenditures (1.6) (1.3) (1.6) (5)


100
Free Cash Flow 14.9 10.9 25.5 (10)
Free Cash Flow Per Share $0.26 $0.17 $0.40 50 (15)
0 (20)
Balance Sheet F2010A F2011E F2012E
Q4-F2000

Q2-F2002

Q4-F2003

Q1-F2006

Q3-F2007

Q1-F2009

Q3-F2010
Q1-F2000

Q3-F2001

Q1-F2003

Q3-F2004
Q2-F2005

Q4-F2006

Q2-F2008

Q4-F2009

Q2-F2011

Cash & ST Investments 94.6 46.8 42.7


Goodwill & Amortization 55.5 109.7 129.2
Total Assets 208.2 223.6 240.3 Net cash Free cash flow
Debt 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total Liabilities 20.3 30.0 34.1
Shareholder's Equity 187.9 193.6 206.2
Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

47
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Consumer Products

Dorel Industries, Inc.


Stock Rating:
Not Rated
Company Profile
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target None
DII.B-TSX (9/13/10) $34.15 „ Dorel operates in three distinct segments: juvenile, recreational/leisure and
Key Indices: home furnishings. The company has a diversified sales mix, with a strong
presence in North America and Europe, as well a growing presence in a
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) NM number of other markets, including Asia, Australia and South America.
52-week Range $28.00-$39.35
Shares Outstanding 33.0M
Float 33.0M Shrs „ Dorel is the world’s largest manufacturer of car seats and produces a wide
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 63,422 array of other juvenile products. Its mid- to high-end product assortment in
Market Capitalization $1,125.3M Europe has struggled, but North America has performed well in a tough
Dividend/Div Yield 0.62/ 1.8% environment. Dorel Brazil is a new division that is growing quickly.
Fiscal Year Ends December
Book Value $34.42 per Shr „ The recreational/leisure segment boasts some of the world’s most popular
2010 ROE (E) bike brands (e.g., Cannondale, Schwinn) and is performing well, growing
LT Debt
mainly in the independent dealer channel. The home furnishings segment
Preferred
has stabilized and remains a top two producer of RTA furniture.
Common Equity
Convertible Available
„ Despite a tough environment, particularly in Europe, the company has been
Earnings Per Share Current able to leverage its strong brand names and new product launches to help
2009 US$3.21A drive organic growth so far in 2010.
2010 -
2011 -
P/E
2009 10.8x
2010 NM Stock Price Performance
2011 NM

Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Dorel Industries, Inc. is a vertically integrated consumer
products manufacturer focusing on three market CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
segments: juvenile products, recreational/leisure and its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
home furnishings. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.dorel.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
CIBC World Markets Inc. See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-7000 end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Company Profile – September 17, 2010

This page left blank intentionally.

49
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Business & Professional Services

FirstService Corporation
Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Company Profile
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target C$31.50
FSV-TSX (9/13/10) C$23.19 „ FirstService provides property-related services through three divisions:
Key Indices: NASDAQ, Toronto commercial real estate brokerage (Colliers), residential property
management, and property services, including franchise operations and
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) 10.0% Field Asset Services (FAS), a manager of foreclosed properties.
52-week Range C$17.50-C$24.96
Shares Outstanding 29.9M
Float 23.0M Shrs „ Transaction volumes at Colliers fell during the credit crisis. FirstService
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. NM responded by cutting $52 million in costs in the division and reducing broker
Market Capitalization $675.2M commissions. Today, the division is seeing operating leverage as markets
Dividend/Div Yield Nil / Nil improve, with margins up +400 bps year over year in Q2.
Fiscal Year Ends December
Book Value $6.07 per Shr „ FAS saw strong growth during the U.S. housing downturn, growing from $8
2010 ROE (E) NM million LTM EBITDA on acquisition in October 2007 to ~$50 million.
Net Debt $236.0M
However, growth has slowed in the division (-2% year over year in Q2) as
Preferred $144.31M
government loan modification programs lengthen the foreclosure process.
Common Equity $181.5M
Convertible Available No
„ While short-term results could be lumpy (given U.S. economic uncertainty,
Earnings Per Share (FD) Current slower FAS growth), longer term, we expect FirstService to benefit from
2009 $1.42A recent cost cuts, plus the Colliers rebranding (and expanded product
2010 $1.79E offering). We rate FirstService Sector Outperformer with a C$31.50 PT.
2011 $2.18E
P/E (FD)
2009 15.9x
2010 12.6x Stock Price Performance
2011 10.4x

EBITDA ($ mlns.)
2009 $133.1A
2010 $161.1E
2011 $184.8E
EV/EBITDA
2009 8.9x
2010 7.4x
2011 6.4x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in US dollars, unless otherwise stated.(C$1.027:US$1)
FirstService Corporation is a leading provider of
property, business and commercial real estate services CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
to consumers and corporations in North America. its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.firstservice.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Stephanie Price, CFA Paul Lechem
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-7047 1 (416) 956-6429
Stephanie.Price@cibc.ca Paul.Lechem@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Company Profile - September 17, 2010

FirstService Corp. (FSV-TSX) Sector Outperformer


Current Price (C$): $23.19 Stephanie Price, CFA (416-594-7047) Stephanie.Price@cibc.ca
12 to 18 month Price Target: $31.50 Paul Lechem (416-956-6429) Paul.Lechem@cibc.ca
All Figures in $US millions, except per share data
Key Statistics Investment Thesis
Share Price (USD) $22.85 Net Cash (Debt) (236.2)
Shares Outstanding 29.8 Preferred Shares (144.3) FirstService is a leading provider of property, business and commercial real
Market Capitalization $680.9 Minority Interest (165.7) estate services to consumers and corporations.

Key Multiples C2009A C2010E C2011E The company was impacted by the global slowdown in real estate, with the
impact seen mostly in its commercial real estate division. Its residential property
P/E 16.1x 12.8x 10.5x
management division has proven resilient, and a slowdown in franchise
EV/EBITDA 9.2x 7.6x 6.6x operations in its property services division was offset by superb results from its
Peers (Average) home foreclosure services business, Field Asset Services.
P/E 31.7x 26.2x 16.2x While commercial real estate markets are unlikely to recover materially until well
EV/EBITDA 11.7x 10.4x 8.6x into 2010, FirstService has now shifted focus from cost cutting and retrenchment
to a more growth-oriented stance.
Profitability C2009A C2010E C2011E
Gross Margin 37.6% 38.1% 39.3%
Adjusted EBITDA 7.8% 8.3% 9.0%
Adjusted Net Margin 2.5% 2.8% 3.2%
Cash Per Share $1.08 $0.87 $0.53 300 Quarterly Revenues by Division
Net Debt/EBITDA 1.60 1.26 0.64 250
200

$mlns.
Income Statement C2009A C2010E C2011E 150
Sales 1703.2 1935.8 2045.1 100
Growth (y/y) 0.1% 13.7% 5.6% 50
Gross Profit 640.8 737.8 803.0 0
Operating Expenses 526.7 579.8 621.1

Q 003

Q 003

Q 005

Q 006

Q 006

Q 007

Q 008

Q 009

9
Q 004

00
Adjusted EBITDA 133.1 161.1 184.8 F2

F2

F2

F2

F2

F2

F2

F2

F2

F2
1-

4-

3-

2-

1-

4-

3-

2-

1-

4-
Amortization (76.4) (44.3) (50.8)
Q

Commercial Real Estate


Interest, FX & Other 6.4 15.7 12.8 Residential Property Management
Earnings Before Tax/Minority Interest 520.3 564.1 608.3 Property Services

Tax Expense (Recovery) 39.1 32.1 37.8


Adj. Net Income 41.9 53.6 66.3
Adj. FD EPS $1.42 $1.79 $2.18
Quarterly EBITDA Margin by Division
35%
Free Cash Flow C2009A C2010E C2011E 30%
Cash Flow From Operations 81.0 69.3 114.6 25%
20%
Capital Expenditures (24.2) (32.8) (20.0)
15%
Free Cash Flow 56.8 36.5 94.6 10%
Free Cash Flow Per Share $1.93 $1.22 $3.12 5%
0%
(5%)
Balance Sheet C2009A C2010E C2011E (10%)
(15%)
Cash & ST Investments 99.8 123.0 207.4
Goodwill & Intangibles 504.8 519.3 498.4
Q 006

Q 008

0
Q 005

Q 006

Q 007

Q 008

Q 009

9
01
Q 00

Q 00

Q 00
F2

F2

F2
F2

F2

F2

F2

F2

F2

F2

F2

Total Assets 1009.5 1058.1 1129.9


2-

4-

2-

4-

2-

4-

2-

4-

2-

4-

2-
Q

Debt 313.0 326.4 326.4


Commercial Real Estate
Total Liabilities 843.5 836.9 838.4 Residential Property Management
Property Services
Shareholder's Equity 166.0 221.3 291.6

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

51
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Business & Professional Services

GENIVAR Income Fund


Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Company Profile
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $33.00
GNV.UN-TSX (9/13/10) $27.72 „ GENIVAR provides engineering and design services to the Canadian market.
Key Indices: None On IPO in 2006, roughly 90% of revenues were derived from Quebec; by
2009, this percentage had decreased to 54%, with the remainder mainly
3-5-Yr. AFFO Gr. Rate NA split between Ontario and Western Canada.
52-week Range $24.56-$29.26
Units Outstanding 27.2M
Distr. Frequency Monthly „ The company continues to build out its presence, completing six acquisitions
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 160,000 year to date, adding over 400 people. Typical acquisitions are completed at
Market Capitalization $753.0M relatively low multiples (3x-5x EBITDA) and the company's partnership
DCF Value/Distr. Yield NA / NA (owns ~33% of the fund) is a compelling retention mechanism.
Fiscal Year Ends December
Book Value $10.33 per Unit „ GENIVAR has delivered best-in-class revenue growth and profitability
2010 D/CF NM throughout the downturn. Internal growth of 5% in Q2 compares favourably
Net Debt $9.7M
with comparables (e.g., IBI -14%, Stantec -2%, ex-FX). EBITDA margins of
Net Asset Value NM
19% are also strong versus comparables (e.g., IBI 14%, Stantec 15%).
Common Equity $280.6M
Convertible Available No
„ Given the significant acquisition activity already completed in H1/10, a
Distr. Cash Flow Generated Current healthy pipeline of further acquisitions and "active" proposal activity in all
2009 $2.56A regions, we expect GENIVAR to continue to see solid growth through H2.
2010 $2.73E We rate GENIVAR Sector Outperformer with a $33 price target.
2011 $2.69E
Payout Ratio
2009 68.4%
2010 64.1% Stock Price Performance
2011 55.8%

EBITDA ($ mlns.)
2009 $78.6A
2010 $89.0E
2011 $100.9E
EV/EBITDA
2009 9.3x
2010 8.2x
2011 7.3x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
GENIVAR provides engineering, project management
and environmental consulting services to a variety of CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
end markets across Canada. its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.genivar.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Paul Lechem Stephanie Price, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-6429 1 (416) 594-7047
Paul.Lechem@cibc.ca Stephanie.Price@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Company Profile - September 17, 2010

GENIVAR (GNV.UN-TSX) Sector Outperformer


Current Price: $27.72 Paul Lechem (416) 956-6429 paul.lechem@cibc.ca
12 to 18 month Price Target: $33.00 Stephanie Price, CFA (416) 594-7047 stephanie.price@cibc.ca

All Figures in $ millions, except per share data


Key Statistics Investment Thesis
Share Price $27.72 Net Cash (Debt) (9.7) GENIVAR provides engineering, project managment and environmental consulting
services to a variety of end markets across Canada.
Shares Outstanding 26.2 Enterprise Value 735.0
Market Capitalization 725.3 The company has been expanding westward from its Quebec base, diversifying its
business from 90%+ Quebec focused on IPO in 2006 to current 55% Quebec, with the
Key Multiples F2009A F2010E F2011E remainder split between Ontario and western Canada.
P/E 13.4x 13.3x 13.6x
The company remains highly acquisitive, completing 14 acquisitions in 2008 and 13
EV/EBITDA 9.4x 8.3x 7.3x YTD in 2009.
Peers (Average)
P/E 14.0x 18.4x 11.5x End market focus is public sector (60% municipal infrastructure / transportation).
GENIVAR has limited residential or commodity exposure.
EV/EBITDA 8.0x 6.8x 5.6x

Profitability F2009A F2010E F2011E


Gross Margin 50.3% 49.4% 50.0%
EBITDA Margin 19.9% 18.9% 20.0%
Net Margin 7.9% 8.0% 10.6%
Gross Revenue Growth
Cash Per Share

Gross Revenues ($mlns.)


$2.15 $0.13 $0.00
160 70%

Gross Rev Growth (%)


Net Debt/EBITDA NA $0.00 $0.00 140 60%
120 50%
100
Income Statement F2009A F2010E F2011E 40%
80
30%
Net revenues 395.3 470.0 504.7 60
40 20%
Growth (y/y) 23.5% 18.9% 7.4% 20 10%
Gross Profit 198.7 231.9 252.4 0 0%
Operating Expenses 120.1 142.9 151.4

Q F2 0 7
Q -F2 07
Q -F2 07

Q -F2 0 8
Q F2 08

Q -F2 0 9
Q -F2 09
Q -F2 09

0
Q -F2 06
Q -F2 06

Q -F2 07
Q F2 8

Q -F2 08
Q -F2 09

F2 0
2- 00

2- 01
01
4 0

4- 0

1 0
4 0
1 0
2- 0
3 0

1 0

3 0

1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
Amortization (23.3) (26.2) (27.0)
Q -F2
3
Q

EBITDA 78.6 89.0 100.9


Gross Revenues
Interest, FX & Other (1.9) (1.4) (2.6) Total Revenue Growth
Acquired Revenue Growth
EBT 53.3 61.5 71.3
Tax Expense (Recovery) (3.3) (3.9) (17.8)
Net Income (Loss) 50.1 57.5 53.5
Adj. FD EPS $2.07 $2.09 $2.04
Adjusted Distributable Cash 61.7 74.2 70.5
Adjsuted DCPU $2.56 $2.73 $2.69 Backlog vs. NTM Gross Revenues
Cash distributions declared 48.7 47.5 39.2 700 10

Months of Work
600 8
Payout Ratio 78.9% 64.1% 55.7%
($ mlns.)

500
400 6
300 4
Free Cash Flow F2009A F2010E F2011E 200
100 2
Cash Flow From Operations 52.6 70.2 69.2
0 0
Capital Expenditures (8.0) (6.3) (8.0)
Q -F2 06
Q F2 7

Q F2 7

Q -F2 08

Q -F2 08

Q -F2 09

Q F2 9
Q -F2 0 9

0
Q -F2 06

Q -F2 07

Q -F2 07

Q -F2 08

Q -F2 08

Q -F2 09

F2 0
4- 00
2 - 00

4 - 00

2- 01
01

Free Cash Flow 44.6 63.9 61.2


1 0
4 0

3 0

1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
1 0
2 0
3 0

1 0
Q - F2

Free Cash Flow Per Share $1.85 $2.35 $2.34


3
Q

Backlog
Balance Sheet F2009A F2010E F2011E NTM gross revenues
Cash & ST Investments 51.9 3.6 0.0 Backlog vs. NTM months of work
Goodwill & Amortization 248.9 288.6 320.6
Total Assets 533.1 564.2 612.5
Debt 6.0 32.8 61.1
Total Liabilities 255.7 280.7 314.7
Shareholder's Equity 277.4 283.5 297.8

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

53
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Canadian Property & Casualty Companies

Genworth MI Canada Inc.


Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Plenty Of Capital And Expanding Earnings
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $33.00
MIC-TSX (9/13/10) $26.20 „ Genworth is the largest private mortgage insurance company in Canada,
Key Indices: Toronto with a market share of ~25% and over $230 billion of insurance in-force.
The company generated an average annual ROE of 15% with an average
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) NM claims loss ratio of 25% from 1997-2009.
52-week Range $22.16-$30.50
Shares Outstanding 112.1M
Float 49.7M Shrs „ Operating EPS and ROE have improved in each of the last four quarters due
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 150,000 to a lower claims loss ratio. A decline in the unemployment rate from a peak
Market Capitalization $2,937.0M of 8.7% in August 2009 to 8.1% in August has resulted in fewer mortgage
Dividend/Div Yield $0.88 / 3.4% delinquencies. We expect the loss ratio to improve further through 2011.
Fiscal Year Ends December
Book Value $24.85 per Shr „ Genworth is very well capitalized, providing it with the flexibility to return
2011 ROE (E) 15.6% cash to shareholders. The company recently completed a $325MM Dutch
LT Debt $275.0M
auction at a clearing price of $26.40. In addition, we anticipate that
Preferred Nil
Genworth will increase its dividend within the next two quarters.
Common Equity $2,785.4M
Convertible Available No
„ A mild home price correction of 5%-10% should have limited impact on
Earnings Per Share Current Genworth's financial results. Genworth currently trades at 1.0x our 2011
2009 $2.55A BVPS estimate. Our analysis suggests that a P/BV multiple of 1.25x is more
2010 $2.88E appropriate leading to our $33 price target and SO rating.
2011 $3.12E
P/E
2009 10.3x
2010 9.1x Stock Price Performance
2011 8.4x

Book Value Per Share


2009 $22.40A
2010 $24.27E
2011 $26.47E
P/BVPS
2009 1.2x
2010 1.1x
2011 1.0x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Genworth MI Canada Inc. is the largest private
mortgage insurance company in Canada, with over CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
$230 billion of insurance in-force. its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.genworth.ca Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Paul Holden, CFA Kevin Cheng, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-8417 1 (416) 956-6676
Paul.Holden@cibc.ca Kevin.Cheng@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Plenty Of Capital And Expanding Earnings - September 17, 2010

Genworth Canada Inc. (MIC - TSX) Sector Outperformer


Current Price : C$26.20 Paul Holden, CFA (416-594-8417) Paul.holden@cibc.ca
12- To 18- Mth Price Target: C$33.00 Kevin Cheng, CFA (416-956-6676) Kevin.cheng@cibc.ca
All figures in millions except per share data
P / BV Multiples Last 2010E 2011E Investment Thesis
Genworth Canada 1.1x 1.1x 1.0x We believe that the structural elements of the Canadian mortgage industry will
Canadian P&C 1.1x 1.1x 1.1x support long term ROEs of 15% -20% . Genworth's average ROE from 1997-2009
U.S. Total P&C 1.0x 0.9x 0.9x was approximately 15% .
We expect the company to post solid earnings over our forecast horizon based on
Key Financial Metrics 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E premiums that have already been written and an improving loss ratio attributable to
lower unemployment.
DWP Growth (Y/Y) -27.6% -48.2% 13.9% -6.0% In this context, Genworth is undervalued in our opinion. Genworth is trading at 1.1x
Claims Loss Ratio 30.9% 36.0% 33.0% 26.9% P/BV and 8.4x 2011E EPS. We believe a more appropriate valuation is 1.25x BV,
Expense Ratio 14.3% 13.1% 15.6% 17.1% equal to a P/E of 10.6x.
Combined Ratio 45.3% 49.1% 48.6% 44.0%
Delinquency Rate 0.25% 0.28% 0.21% 0.16% Chart 1: Direct Written Premiums ($ mlns.)
Severity Ratio 26% 27% 26% 26%
1,200
ROE - Operating 16.9% 12.3% 12.3% 12.3%
BVPS $18.48 $22.40 $24.27 $26.47 1,000

BVPS (ex. AOCI) $18.60 $21.58 $23.13 $25.32 800

600
Income Statement 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E
400

Net Premiums Earned 517.6 709.9 595.7 541.9 200


Losses On Claims 160.0 255.8 196.8 146.0 0
Other Underwriting Costs 74.3 93.2 92.7 92.6 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E
Underwriting Income 283.6 361.1 306.3 303.2
Interest Income 185.7 177.1 168.6 180.4 Chart 2: Industry Mortgage Delinquency Vs. Unemployment
Other Income 14.4 12.0 6.0 9.1
Amortization and Interest Expense 7.9 5.9 12.9 20.3 0.6% 10%
EBT 475.8 544.3 468.0 472.4
Tax Expense (Recovery) 140.3 165.6 139.4 141.7
0.5%
Mortgage Delinquency

Unemployment Rate
Net Income 335.5 378.7 328.6 330.7 8%

Operating EPS 2.73 2.55 2.88 3.12


0.4%
GAAP EPS 2.84 3.21 2.89 3.12
6%
Investment Performance 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E 0.3%
Ending Assets 4,152.7 4,409.8 4,185.0 4,197.0
Dividend and Interest Income 185.7 177.1 168.6 180.4
0.2% 4%
Average Income Yield 4.5% 4.1% 3.9% 4.3%
Jan-00

Jan-01

Jan-02

Jan-03
Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07
Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Capital Gains/(Losses) 18.7 11.6 2.9 0.0


Average Investment Yield 4.9% 4.4% 4.0% 4.3%

Delinquency Rate Canada Unemploy ment Rate

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

55
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Diversified Financials

Home Capital Group Inc.


Stock Rating:
Not Rated
Company Profile
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target None
HCG-TSX (9/13/10) $44.50 „ Home Capital operates through its principal subsidiary, Home Trust
Key Indices: Toronto Company, which offers mortgage lending, consumer lending, deposit
services and various other financial services. Operating EPS in H1/10 were
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) NM $2.45, up 26.3% from $1.90 reported during H1/09.
52-week Range $35.10-$48.54
Shares Outstanding 34.7M
Float 31.3M Shrs „ Credit losses improved in H1/10 as impaired loans (as a % of gross loans)
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 64,000 totaled 0.7% at the end of Q2/10 compared to 1.3% a year ago. Robust
Market Capitalization $1,542.8 asset growth continued with total assets under administration expanding to
Dividend/Div Yield $0.64 / 1.4% $13.3 billion, up 15.6% over $11.5 billion at December 2009.
Fiscal Year Ends December
Book Value $18.78 per Shr „ Home Capital’s ROE through H1/10 was an impressive 27.4%. The
2011 ROE (E) NA company’s capital position remains strong as its tier 1 capital ratio was
LT Debt NA
16.7% at the end of Q2/10. On August 30, the company announced an
Preferred Nil
NCIB for up to 10% of its public float.
Common Equity $651.2M
Convertible Available No
„ Currently, Home Capital trades at 2.4x price-to-book, a notable discount
Earnings Per Share Current compared to the 3.4x average since 1999. Consensus estimates for book
2007 $2.59A value are $20.81 and $24.59 in 2010 and 2011, implying growth of 22.4%
2008 $3.13A and 18.2%, respectively.
2009 $4.15A
P/E
2007 17.2x
2008 14.2x Stock Price Performance
2009 10.7x

Book Value Per Share


2007 $10.08A
2008 $12.57A
2009 $17.00A

P/B
2007 4.4x
2008 3.5x
2009 2.6x Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Home Capital Group Inc. is a holding company which
operates through its main subsidiary, Home Trust CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
Company. Home Trust offers deposit services, its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
mortgage lending, and credit card issuing services. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.homecapital.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
CIBC World Markets Inc. See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-7000 end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Company Profile - September 17, 2010

This page left blank intentionally.

57
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Business & Professional Services

IBI Income Fund


Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Company Profile
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $16.00
IBG.UN-TSX (9/13/10) $13.16 „ IBI is an architecture, engineering and design company with operations in
Key Indices: None Canada, the U.S. and internationally. Its specialty is urban development -
planning, design, and engineering for land planning, buildings,
3-5-Yr. AFFO Gr. Rate NA transportation and other urban systems.
52-week Range $12.16-$17.98
Units Outstanding 17.9M
Distr. Frequency Monthly „ IBI grew rapidly from its 2004 IPO, more than tripling its size by the end of
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. NM 2008. However, it entered the downturn with a focus on the private sector,
Market Capitalization $235.1M high debt levels and excess workforce. IBI has since extended /increased its
DCF Value/Distr. Yield $17.74 / NA credit lines, right-sized staff and refocused on public sector work.
Fiscal Year Ends December
Book Value $8.00 per Unit „ IBI has recently seen weak organic growth (-14% Y/Y in Q2). However,
2010 D/CF NM management is seeing improving public and private markets, especially P3
Net Debt $63.0M
health and education markets. IBI recently made a key move to expand its
Net Asset Value NM
healthcare practice with the acquisition of U.K.-based Nightingale.
Common Equity $143.1M
Convertible Available No
„ While organic growth has been slow, we expect improvements as recent
Distr. Cash Flow Generated Current project wins (including MUHC) begin to ramp up. IBI has yet to announce its
2009 $1.77A dividend policy post conversion - we expect a distribution cut to ~$1.12/sh.
2010 $1.76E We rate IBI Sector Outperformer with a $16 price target.
2011 $1.66E
Payout Ratio
2009 90.4%
2010 90.9% Stock Price Performance
2011 67.5%

EBITDA ($ mlns.)
2009 $44.5A
2010 $43.5E
2011 $52.7E
EV/EBITDA
2009 6.8x
2010 7.0x
2011 5.8x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
IBI Income Fund is a design firm focused on urban
development, providing services in planning, design, CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
implementation, analysis and other services across its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
North America and internationally. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.ibigroup.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Paul Lechem Stephanie Price, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-6429 1 (416) 594-7047
Paul.Lechem@cibc.ca Stephanie.Price@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Company Profile - September 17, 2010

IBI Income Fund (IBG.UN-TSX) Sector Outperformer


Current Price: $13.16 Paul Lechem (416) 956-6429 paul.lechem@cibc.ca
12 to 18 month Price Target: $16.00 Stephanie Price, CFA (416) 594-7047 stephanie.price@cibc.ca

All Figures in $ millions, except per share data


Key Statistics Investment Thesis
Share Price $13.16 Net Cash (Debt) (63.0)
Basic Shares Outstanding 17.9 Enterprise Value $298.17 IBI Income Fund is a design firm focused on urban development, providing services in
Market Capitalization $235.14 planning, design, implementation, analysis and other services across North America and
internationally.
Key Multiples F2009A F2010E F2011E
The company has repositioned itself to weather the downturn by focusing on public
P/E 17.4x 13.4x 11.7x
sector work (65% of revenues), reducing excess staff, and bolstering its financial
EV/EBITDA 6.7x 6.9x 5.7x
situation by increasing/extending its lines of credit and issuing equity.
Peers (Average)
P/E 14.1x 17.9x 11.1x
EV/EBITDA 7.9x 6.6x 5.3x

Profitability F2009A F2010E F2011E


EBITDA Margin 16.3% 15.0% 16.2%
Net Margin 3.4% 4.3% 4.5%
Cash Per Share $0.41 $0.58 $0.00 Revenue Growth
70%
Net Debt/EBITDA 1.70 1.50 1.71 60%

Revenue Growth
50%
Income Statement F2009A F2010E F2011E 40%
30%
Sales 273.7 290.9 325.0 20%
Growth (y/y) 15.1% 6.3% 11.7% 10%
0%
Operating Expenses 229.2 247.4 272.3 -10%
Amortization (12.7) (11.5) (12.5) -20%
EBITDA 44.5 43.5 52.7
F2 5

F2 9

0
5

F2 7

F2 8

9
Q 00

Q 00
Q 00

Q 00

Q 00

Q 200

Q 00

Q 20 0

Q 00

Q 00

01
Interest, FX & Other (11.9) (11.0) (12.4)
F2

F2

F2

F2
F2

F
3-

3-

3-

1-

1-
1-

1-

1-

1-

3-

3-
Earnings Before Tax 19.9 21.0 27.8
Q

Provisions For Tax & Discontinued Ops 7.3 8.5 13.1 Organic growth Acquired growth
Net Income (Loss) 12.5 12.5 14.7
EPU $0.76 $0.98 $1.13
Distributable cash 30.3 31.5 30.3
DCPU $1.77 $1.76 $1.66
Cash distributions 27.6 28.6 20.4
Cash distributions per unit $1.61 $1.60 $1.12
Net Debt
Payout ratio 91.1% 90.8% 67.3% (90) 3.5

Net debt : EBITDA


(80)
Net cash (debt)

3.0
(70)
2.5
($mlns.)

Free Cash Flow F2009A F2010E F2011E (60)


(50) 2.0
Cash Flow From Operations (6.6) 17.6 18.5 (40) 1.5
Capital Expenditures (1.8) (2.5) (3.0) (30) 1.0
(20)
Free Cash Flow (8.4) 15.0 15.5 (10) 0.5
Free Cash Flow Per Share NA $0.71 $0.71 0 0.0
Q F20 6
Q F20 7
Q F 20 7
4
5

Q F20 5
Q F20 6

8
8
9
F2 9
0
1- 0

1- 0
3- 0
1- 0
3- 0
1- 0
3- 0
1- 0
3- 0

3- 0
1- 0
01

Balance Sheet F2009A F2010E F2011E


Q F 20
Q F 20
Q 20

Q F 20
Q F 20
Q F20
F

Cash & ST Investments 6.9 12.2 0.0


3-
Q

Goodwill & Intangibles 183.3 198.0 209.4


Net cash (debt) Net debt:EBITDA
Total Assets 417.0 451.7 467.9
Debt 82.3 77.2 90.0
Total Liabilities 272.5 310.7 327.2
Shareholder's Equity 144.5 141.0 140.7
Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

59
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Industrials/Capital Equipment

IESI - BFC Ltd.


Stock Rating:
Sector Performer
Company Profile
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $26.00
BIN-NYSE (9/13/10) $23.79 „ IESI-BFC Ltd. is the third-largest vertically integrated provider of non-
Key Indices: None hazardous solid waste collection, recycling and landfill disposal services in
North America for commercial, industrial and residential customers
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) 11.5% operating in the U.S. South, U.S. Northeast and Canada.
52-week Range $12.47-$24.27
Shares Outstanding 121.6M „ The solid waste management business is considered relatively recession-
Float 112.1M Shrs resistant; however, the recession has impacted each segment in various
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 284,810 ways. Management has been able to offset the negative impact of the
Market Capitalization $2,892.9M recent downturn through organic revenue growth and strategic acquisitions.
Dividend/Div Yield $0.48 / 2.0%
Fiscal Year Ends December „ BIN implements a bottom up management style, focusing on developing
Book Value $11.19 per Shr strong collection operations and gaining a significant market share in dense,
2010 ROE (E) NM urban markets. This strategy has resulted in BIN generating 10%
Net Debt $1,034.3M compounded annual organic revenue growth since 2005.
Preferred Nil
Common Equity $1,361.0M
„ After the July 2 closing of the WSI acquisition, 2010E pro-forma revenues
Convertible Available No are estimated to be $1.4 billion. Management estimates the WSI acquisition
should provide $25 million-$30 million in pre-tax synergies. We believe
Earnings per Share Current
management's estimate of potential synergies is conservative.
2009 $0.71A
2010 $0.97E
2011 $1.09E
P/E Stock Price Performance
2009 33.5x
2010 24.5x
2011 21.8x

EV/EBITDA
Current
2009A 13.6x
2010E 9.6x
2011E 7.4x

Source: Reuters
All figures in US dollars, unless otherwise stated.

Company Description CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
IESI-BFC Ltd. is a full-service waste management its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
company providing non-hazardous solid waste have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
collection, transfer, recycling and landfill disposal Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
services in Canada and the U.S. investment decision.
www.bficanada.com/
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Michael Willemse, CFA David Galison
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-7285 1 (416) 956-3548
Michael.Willemse@cibc.ca David.Galison@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Company Profile - September 17, 2010

IESI-BFC Ltd. (BIN-NYSE) Sector Performer


Current Price: $23.79 Michael Willemse, CFA 416-594-7285 michael.willemse@cibc.ca
12- To 18-Month Price Target: $26 David Galison, MBA 416-956-3548 david.galison@cibc.ca
All Figures in USD$ millions, except per share data unless otherwise stated USD:CAD 1.0279 13-Sep-10
2010E 2011E
Key Multiples 2010E P/E EBITDA 2011E P/E EBITDA Investment Thesis
IESI-BFC Ltd. 24.8x 9.6x 22.1x 7.4x Over the past several years, Management has been able to create significant additional value for
Large Waste & Disposal Companies 17.1x 7.5x 14.8x 7.0x shareholders through above industry average organic growth on top of the several strategic acquisitions
Medium Waste & Disposal Companies 20.9x 9.3x 19.8x 8.4x made over the same period. By creating a business model which builds focused collection services in and
around regions with higher population densities, Management has been able to achieve higher organic
Environmental Services Comps 20.8x 8.4x 18.2x 8.0x
growth in the US and Canada through a strategic approach to price and volume in the company’s local
Historical P/ 1yr EPS 31.1x markets. However, we are concerned that this market selection approach could provide elevated customer
attrition risk to BFI due to a higher level of competition in these markets.
Historical EV/TTM EBITDA 7.5x
With the closing of the merger with WSI on July 2, 2010, BIN has become the third largest solid waste
Operating Performance 2009 A 2010 E 2011 E 2012 E management company (on a revenue basis) in North America (up from eighth place). The WSI acquisition
ROE 5.9% 7.0% 9.1% 9.4% significantly enhances BIN’s asset base and provides the company with a strong footprint in both Canada
ROCE 7.7% 9.8% 11.3% 12.2% and the U.S. Operating synergies will focus on optimizing routes, improving disposal internalization,
eliminating duplicate facilities, and enhanced purchasing power.
ROA 2.8% 4.0% 4.6% 5.1%
EBITDA Margin 28.1% 27.4% 29.7% 30.2%
EBIT Margin 12.6% 12.6% 15.0% 15.4%
EBT Margin 9.3% 9.5% 11.6% 12.6%
Net Margin 6.0% 6.8% 7.3% 7.8%

Quality of Earnings 2009 A 2010 E 2011 E 2012 E Valuation & Outlook


Cash Realization Ratio1 3.6x 3.2x 3.3x 3.1x Current Price: $23.79 Rating: SP
P/FCF 18.4x 14.3x 10.9x 10.8x Price Target: $26.00 Dividend: $0.49
FCF Yield 5.4% 7.0% 9.2% 9.3% 12-18 Mo Return: 11.3%
Effective Tax Rate 38.0% 38.0% 38.0% 38.0% Price Target Represents: 2010 E 2011 E 2012 E
Interest Coverage 3.7x 3.8x 4.5x 5.4x P/E: 26.9x 23.9x 22.1x
Income Statement 2009 A 2010 E 2011 E 2012 E Enterprise Value: $4,164 $4,097 $3,907
Revenue - Consolidated $1,008.5 $1,419.5 $1,795.7 $1,831.6 EV/EBITDA: 10.2x 7.6x 7.1x
Gross Profit $420.4 $583.0 $748.6 $768.0 EV/Sales: 2.9x 2.2x 2.1x
adj EBITDA $290.4 $409.7 $536.0 $552.8 P/BV: 2.0x 2.1x 2.0x
EBIT $127.0 $179.4 $269.4 $282.9 FCF Yield: 6.0% 8.0% 8.1%
EBT $93.6 $134.2 $209.1 $230.8 Organic Revenue Growth
Minority Interest $230.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
20%
adj Net Income $60.1 $95.9 $130.9 $143.1
FD EPS, (Ex. Unusuals) $0.71 $0.97 $1.09 $1.18 15%
FD S/O 85.0 107.4 121.6 121.6 10%

5%
Cash Flow 2009 A 2010 E 2011 E 2012 E
Operating cash flow (ex WC) $229.0 $306.0 $425.8 $435.4 0%
2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Q1/10

Q2/10
Capex ($122.3) ($132.1) ($168.0) ($174.5) -5%
Working Capital Investments ($14.6) $4.7 $9.6 $13.1
-10%
Free Cash Flow2 $106.7 $173.9 $257.8 $260.9 BIN (CAD) BIN (USA
FCF per Share $1.25 $1.62 $2.12 $2.15
Balance Sheet 2009 A 2010 E 2011 E 2012 E Consolidated Chart
Cash And Equivalents $5.0 $38.9 $21.0 $31.0
$2.000 31.0%
$US Million

Total debt $655.0 $1,041.2 $956.2 $776.7


Equity $1,015.5 $1,370.3 $1,441.5 $1,525.4 $1.500 30.0%
Minority Interest $230.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 29.0%
Net debt (Cash) $650.0 $1,002.3 $935.1 $745.6 $1.000
28.0%
Net debt per share $7.65 $9.33 $7.69 $6.13
$0.500 27.0%
Net debt/EBITDA 2.2x 2.4x 1.7x 1.3x
Book Value Per Unit (FD) $11.94 $12.75 $11.85 $12.54 $0.000 26.0%
2008 A

2009 A

2010 E

2011 E

2012 E

2013 E

1
Calculated as CFO divided by Net Income.
2
Calculated as CFO less Capex
Revenue adj EBITDA adj EBITDA Margin
Source: Bloomberg, Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

61
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Canadian Insurance

Industrial Alliance
Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Conservatism Pays Dividends
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $40.00
IAG-TSX (9/13/10) $32.64 „ IAG is the fourth-largest life insurance company in Canada by market
Key Indices: Toronto capitalization and asset size. The insurer is organized across four main
business lines: Individual Insurance, Individual Wealth Management, Group
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) 9.0% Insurance and Group Pensions.
52-week Range $27.18-$37.40
Shares Outstanding 83.7M
Float 83.7M Shrs „ IAG's Q2/10 results were notionally in line with our expectations despite a
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 162,000 difficult market environment. The stock has outperformed its peers,
Market Capitalization $2,732.0M although that has not been driven by its own multiple expansion, but rather
Dividend/Div Yield $0.98 / 3.0% the poor performance of its larger rivals.
Fiscal Year Ends December
Book Value $24.20 per Shr „ IAG's pro forma MCCSR ratio sits at 215% at the end of Q2/10. Especially
2010 ROE (E) 12.4% when viewed in the context of a more conservative business mix, strong
LT Debt $525.9M
asset quality, below-average regulatory risk and a reasonable payout ratio,
Preferred $425.00M
the balance sheet is solid, which improves the risk-reward profile.
Common Equity $2,025.8M
Convertible Available No
„ IAG's investment portfolio is of high quality, which is a plus considering the
Earnings Per Share Current current volatile market environment. IAG trades at a 1.3x P/B, essentially
2009 $2.62A in-line with its peers, versus a nine-year average discount of 20%. We
2010 $2.89E currently rate IAG Sector Outperformer.
2011 $3.23E
P/E
2009 12.5x
2010 11.3x Stock Price Performance
2011 10.1x

Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Industrial Alliance is the fourth-largest Canadian life
insurance company and manufactures and distributes CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
life insurance and wealth management products its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
nationwide. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.inalco.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Robert Sedran, CFA Mehmed Rizvanovic, CFA investment decision.
1 (416) 594-7874 (416) 594-7283 See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
Robert.Sedran@cibc.ca Mike.Rizvanovic@cibc.ca
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Meny Grauman, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-3723
Meny.Grauman@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Conservatism Pays Dividends - September 17, 2010

Industrial Alliance (IAG)


All Figures in C$ millions, except per share data

Key Multiples Year Ending Our Thesis


Q4-08 Q4-09 Q4-10E Q4-11E With a below-average risk profile, exposure to an improving environment (though the
near-term market outlook is still uncertain), a solid balance sheet (regardless of the fact
P/E Multiple 38.7x 12.5x 11.3x 10.1x that ratios are below average), more stable earnings and strong management, we
Peer Average (GWO, MFC, SLF) 20.7x 12.1x 9.6x believe the risk-reward profile relative to its larger peers remains favorable. We rate the
stock Sector Outperformer.
Quarter Ending
Q2-10
Book Value Per Share $24.20
P/B Multiple 1.3x
Peer Average (GWO, MFC, SLF) 1.3x

Operating Performance Year Ending Segmented Earnings - For Years Ending


Q4-08 Q4-09 Q4-10E Q4-11E 100% 17 19
Core EPS - Fully Diluted ($) 0.84 2.62 2.89 3.23
35 40 42
Annual EPS growth 210.0% 10.5% 11.6% 80%
23
43
Core ROE 4.0% 12.2% 12.1% 12.4% 67 77
60%
Payout Ratio 97.9% 38.2% 33.4% 30.0%
Book Value Per Share (BVPS) ($) 20.35 22.77 25.31 27.56 40%
166
Embedded Value Per Share ($) 31.26 36.89 n/a n/a 58 119 134
20%

Capital Year Ending Quarter Ending 0% (18)


(18)
Q4-08 Q4-09 Q2-10 (7)
-20%
Available Capital 1,921 2,305 2,601 Q4-08 Q4-09 Q4-10E Q4-11E
Required Capital 967 1,107 1,160 Indiv idual Insuranc e Indiv idual Wealth Management
Group Insuranc e Group Pensions
MCCSR Ratio 199% 208% 224%

Source of Earnings Year Ending Forward P/E Multiple* Relative To The Peer Group
Q4-08 Q4-09 Q4-10E Q4-11E 120%
Expected Profit - In-Force Business 391.4 320.5 364.3 387.1 9-year Average Relativ e P/E = 92% Current Relativ e P/E = 56%
Impact of New Business (88.0) (95.6) (103.6) (101.2) 110%

Experience Gains (Losses) (80.5) 3.9 1.3 13.0 100%


Changes in Assumptions (195.2) (1.1) - -
90%
Earnings on Surplus 65.5 79.7 98.1 101.9
Income before Taxes 93.2 307.4 360.1 400.8 80%

Income Taxes (18.4) (82.4) (94.2) (103.8) 70%


Other 7.6 (5.4) 0.4 -
60%
Net Income 82.4 219.6 266.3 297.0
Less: Preferred Share Dividends (5.8) (13.8) (23.0) (24.0) 50%
Net I ncome to Common Shareholders 76.6 205.8 243.3 273.0
Sep-01

Sep-02

Sep-03

Sep-04

Sep-06
Sep-05

Sep-07

Sep-08

Sep-09

Sep-10
Assets Year Ending * Bas ed on c onsensus es timates
Q4-08 Q4-09 P/B Multiple Relative To The Peer Group
Bonds 7,942 9,410
120%
Mortgage Loans 3,508 3,405 9-y ear Av erage Relative P/B = 80% Current Relativ e P/B = 101%
Stocks 1,340 1,896 110%
Real Estate 630 649
Policy Loans 320 381 100%
Cash & Equivalents 258 382
Short-term Investments - - 90%
Other Invested Assets 397 367
Total Invested Assets 14,396 16,490 80%

Goodwill 115 115


70%
Intangible Assets 332 375
Total Other Assets 572 646
60%
Total Assets 15,415 17,627
Sep-04

Sep-05

Sep-10
Sep-01

Sep-02

Sep-03

Sep-06

Sep-07

Sep-08

Sep-09

Common Equity 1,634.2 1,832.6

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

63
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Canadian Property & Casualty Companies

Intact Financial Corp.


Stock Rating:
Sector Performer
Underwriting Margins Improving; Returning Capital
Sector Weighting:
To Shareholders
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $53.50
IFC-TSX (9/13/10) $44.59 „ Intact is the largest P&C underwriter in Canada, with an approximate
Key Indices: Toronto market share of 11%. The company derives roughly 75% of its net
premiums from personal insurance lines and roughly 25% from commercial
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) NM insurance lines. Intact's long-term average ROE is a healthy 15%.
52-week Range $31.34-$48.05
Shares Outstanding 114.4M
Float 114.3M Shrs „ Intact is benefiting from price increases in personal insurance lines, but
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 300,000 pricing in commercial lines remains soft. Intact's combined ratio in H1/10
Market Capitalization $5,099.1M was 93.5%, a 4.0-ppt improvement from H1/09. Ontario auto insurance
Dividend/Div Yield $1.36 / 3.1% reforms, effective September 1, should lower the combined ratio further.
Fiscal Year Ends December
Book Value $25.31 per Shr „ Intact aggressively bought back about $241MM worth of shares in H1/10,
2011 ROE (E) 15.6% and recently increased its NCIB from 5% of its public float to 10%, implying
LT Debt $500.0M
further repurchases. The company increased its dividend by 6% at the
Preferred Nil
beginning of 2010 and we expect another increase at the beginning of 2011.
Common Equity $2,894.9M
Convertible Available No
„ Intact currently trades at 1.8x book value, making it one of the most
Earnings Per Share Current expensive names in the North American P&C space. We continue to expect
2009 $2.35A solid EPS and ROE expansion through 2011, however, we believe that the
2010 $3.41E stock is fully valued at this time. We rate Intact SP with a $53.50 PT.
2011 $4.30E
P/E
2009 19.0x
2010 13.1x Stock Price Performance
2011 10.4x

Book Value Per Share


2009 $24.88A
2010 $26.07E
2011 $28.96E
P/BVPS
2009 1.8x
2010 1.7x
2011 1.5x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Intact is the largest P&C underwriter in Canada, with the
majority of revenue coming from personal insurance CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
lines. its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.intactfc.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Paul Holden, CFA Kevin Cheng, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-8417 1 (416) 956-6676
Paul.Holden@cibc.ca Kevin.Cheng@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Underwriting Margins Improving; Returning Capital To Shareholders - September 17, 2010

Intact Financial (IFC - TSX) Sector Performer


Current Price : C$44.59 Paul Holden, CFA (416-594-8417) Paul.holden@cibc.ca
12- To 18- Mth Price Target: C$53.50 Kevin Cheng, CFA (416-956-6676) Kevin.cheng@cibc.ca
All figures in millions except per share data
P / BV Multiples 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Investment Thesis
Intact Financial 1.8x 1.7x 1.5x
Canadian P&C 1.1x 1.1x 1.1x We believe that ROEs for the industry and Intact likely troughed in 2009. In past cycles it
U.S. Auto / Personal Lines 1.2x 1.1x 1.1x has taken an average of only 2 years for ROEs to go from trough to peak.
U.S. Commercial Lines 0.9x 0.8x 0.8x Points that support a ROE recovery include: 1) premium growth in personal lines has
U.S. Total P&C 1.0x 0.9x 0.9x accelerated in each of the past 6 quarters; 2) Ontario auto reforms are expected to result
in lower claims expenses; and 3) the company's personal property action plan has
Key Financial Metrics ($ mns) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E contributed to a 12 point improvement in the combined ratio.
DPW Growth (Y/Y) 0.9% 3.1% 4.1% 2.0% We expect Intact's ROE to recover to 15.6% in 2011, supporting a P/BV multiple of
Loss Ratio (ex. MYA) 68.2% 69.9% 64.2% 61.5% 1.8x. Given that the company is currently trading at 1.8x BV we believe that the shares
Operating Expense Ratio 9.6% 9.6% 11.8% 11.8% are appropriately valued.
Comm'n and Premium Tax Ratio 19.2% 19.1% 19.1% 19.2% Chart 1: Combined Ratio By Insurance Line
Combined Ratio (ex. MYA) 97.1% 98.7% 95.2% 92.6%
ROE - Operating 12.1% 10.0% 13.4% 15.6% 120%

Reserve Redundancy/(Deficiency) $148.9 $123.7 $103.5 $113.0


110%
Dividends Per Share $1.24 $1.28 $1.36 $1.41
BVPS $21.96 $24.88 $26.07 $28.96
100%
BVPS (ex. AOCI) $25.68 $25.41 $26.73 $29.62
90%
Income Statement ($ mns) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E
80%
Net Premiums Earned 4,039.4 4,055.4 4,241.9 4,398.0
Total Underwriting Costs (ex. MYA) 3,922.5 4,001.2 4,038.4 4,070.6 70%
Underwriting Income 116.9 54.2 203.5 327.4 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E
Other Income 15.9 12.9 23.1 23.1 Personal Auto Personal Property
Investment Income 328.8 292.7 301.2 335.2 Commercial Auto Commercial Non-auto
Interest Expense 0.0 5.6 28.3 29.5
EBT 123.7 139.9 510.9 656.2
Tax Expense (Recovery) (4.6) 13.1 106.8 164.0 Chart 2: IFC P/BV Premium (Discount) To US Personal Lines

Net Operating Income 360.7 281.6 394.5 492.1 IFC P/BV Vs. US Personal Line Insurers
1.0
Operating EPS 2.96 2.35 3.41 4.30
Premiu

0.8
GAAP EPS 1.05 1.06 3.48 4.30 Av erage Plus One ST. Dev .
0.6
0.4
Investment Performance 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Av erage
Discount

0.2
Ending Assets 6,108.9 7,996.4 8,104.5 8,434.9
0.0
Dividend and Interest Income 328.8 292.7 301.2 335.2
-0.2 Av erage Less One ST. Dev .
Average Income Yield 4.9% 4.2% 3.8% 4.1%
-0.4
Capital Gains/(Losses) (288.0) (172.5) 38.6 0.0
-0.6
Average Investment Yield 0.7% 1.7% 4.2% 4.1%
Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

65
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Transportation

Jazz Air Income Fund


Stock Rating:
Sector Performer
Canada's Largest Regional Airline
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $5.00
JAZ.UN-TSX (9/13/10) $4.37 „ Jazz is the largest regional airline and the second-largest airline in Canada,
Key Indices: None based on fleet size and number of routes operated. Jazz is economically
linked to Air Canada through its Capacity Purchase Agreement (CPA), with
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) NM the latter purchasing substantially all of Jazz's fleet capacity.
52-week Range $3.40-$5.24
Shares Outstanding 122.9M
Float 110.6M Shrs „ The CPA reduces the cyclicality of Jazz's earnings and accords it a lower risk
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 407,674 profile than other Canadian airlines. The offsets are the almost sole
Market Capitalization $536.9M dependence of Jazz's operations on Air Canada's financial and operational
Dividend/Div Yield $0.60 / 13.7% strength and a limitation on Jazz's potential upside from rising fares.
Fiscal Year Ends December
Book Value $6.44 per Shr „ Jazz's growth strategy focuses on diversifying from Air Canada, and
2010 ROE (E) 5.9% incorporates expanding charter services, increasing service offerings to tour
LT Debt $92.6M
operators, and equity investments. We expect contributions from Jazz's
Preferred Nil
recent flight agreement with Thomas Cook in H2/10.
Common Equity $791.7M
Convertible Available No
„ Jazz has indicated that it intends to convert to a corporation post-2010.
EBITDA ($ mlns.) Current Jazz will be holding a special shareholder meeting, likely in September, to
2009 $159.1A convert to a corporation and we expect the company to set its 2011
2010 $118.0E dividend policy at that time.
2011 $131.5E
EV/EBITDA
2009 3.5x
2010 4.7x Stock Price Performance
2011 4.2x

Earnings Per Share


2009 $0.75A
2010 $0.36E
2011 $0.41E
P/E
2009 5.8x
2010 12.1x
2011 10.7x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Jazz Air Income Fund operates regional scheduled air
passenger and charter services to destinations in CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
Canada and the U.S. primarily on behalf of Air Canada. its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.flyjazz.ca Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Kevin Chiang Jacob Bout, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-7198 1 (416) 956-6766
Kevin.Chiang@cibc.ca Jacob.Bout@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Canada's Largest Regional Airline - September 17, 2010

Jazz Air Income Fund (JAZ.UN - TSX)


Current Price: C$4.37
12- To 18-Month Price Target: C$5.00
All figures in C$ '000, except per share data
Share Price
December 31 year end $15

Share Price $4.37 $10


52 Week High $5.24
$5
52 Week Low $3.40
Shares Outstanding (mln) 123 $0
Market Cap. (mln) $537

Jan-06

Jul-06

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10
Key Multiples 2009 2010E 2011E
Jazz P/E 5.8x 12.1x 10.6x
Jazz EV/EBITDA 3.5x 4.7x 4.2x Company Description
Jazz Air LP is indirectly wholly owned by the Jazz Air Income Fund, and has a
Jazz P/CF 3.6x 4.8x 4.6x
strong history in Canadian aviation with its roots going back to the 1930s. Jazz
Operating Ratios 2009 2010E 2011E became publicly traded in February 2006. Under a capacity purchase
Operating Margin 6.0% 3.9% 4.7% agreement with Air Canada, Jazz Air provides service to and from lower-density
Return On Equity 11.5% 5.6% 6.3% markets as well as higher-density markets at off-peak times throughout Canada
Current Ratio 1.13 1.04 1.14 and to and from certain destinations in the United States. Jazz Air currently
Quick Ratio 0.93 0.76 0.84 operates scheduled passenger service on behalf of Air Canada with
LT Debt To Total Capitalization 10.4% 10.5% 10.1% approximately 800 departures per weekday to over 80 destinations in Canada
Dividend Yield 19.9% 13.7% 13.7% and in the United States with a fleet of Canadian-made Bombardier aircraft.
Income Statement 2009 2010E 2011E
Sales 1,473,900 1,469,575 1,559,670 Investment Thesis
EBITDA From Operations 159,086 118,048 131,547 1. Air Canada CPA provides earnings stability but also limits upside potential
Earnings From Operations 92,638 44,339 50,509
FD EPS From Operations 0.75 0.36 0.41 2. Conversion to a corporation - Jazz anticipates conversion will occur after
Cash Flow 2009 2010E 2011E special shareholder meeting scheduled for Sept./10.
CFPS 1.20 0.92 0.96
FCFPS 1.09 0.76 0.86 3. Distribution cut? - May look to cut distribution to fund growth opportunity.
Balance Sheet Q2/F10
4. Diversifying away from Air Canada, focusing on 1) charter; 2) servicing tour
Cash + ST Investments 76,547
operator market; 3) equity investments.
Current Assets 195,139
PP&E 212,865
5. All is clear on labour front - Only outstanding labour contract is with the 33
Total Assets 1,134,272
crew schedulers.
Current Liabilities 185,660
LT Debt 92,606
Management
Total Liabilities 342,532
Mr. Joseph (Joe) D. Randell - President & CEO
Shareholders' Equity 791,740
Mr. Allan Rowe - CFO
Operating Metrics Q2/F10 Mr. Colin Copp - Chief Administrative Officer
Block Hours 93,585 Ms. Jolene Mahody - COO
Departures 69,249
ASM 1,345,703

Revenue Breakdown (2009) Margin Breakdown (2009)

Other Incentiv es Other


Incentiv es
0.8% 10.6% 2.1%
1.0%

Pass-throughs
40.9%
CPA
57.4% CPA
87.3%

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

67
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Banks

Laurentian Bank
Stock Rating:
Sector Performer
Solid Results With Below-average Risk
Sector Weighting:
Overweight
12-18 mo. Price Target $50.00
LB-TSX (9/13/10) $46.80 „ LB is the eighth-largest Canadian bank by market capitalization with assets
Key Indices: None of $24 billion as at Q3/F10. Over the last 12 months, LB derived 32% of its
net income from Retail & SME, 33% from Real Estate & Commercial, 29%
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) 5.0% from B2B Trust, and 6% from LB Securities.
52-week Range $37.03-$47.67
Shares Outstanding 23.9M
Float 23.9M Shrs „ LB posted impressive growth in net interest income in Q3/F10 driven by a
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. NM 12-basis-point improvement in the net interest margin. While management
Market Capitalization $1,119.5M cautioned that this increase may come under pressure in subsequent
Dividend/Div Yield $1.44 / 3.1% quarters, we assume some of the captured margin is sustainable.
Fiscal Year Ends October
Book Value $42.08 per Shr „ With a below-average risk profile and a payout ratio that is well below its
2010 ROE (E) 10.8% target range, we believe LB is well positioned to increase its dividend. We
LT Debt $150.0M
assume this increase will be announced coincident with Q1/F11 reporting,
Preferred $210.00M
but do not rule out a move in Q4/F10.
Common Equity $1,006.6M
Convertible Available No
„ LB's forward P/E multiple is at a 18% discount relative to peers compared to
Earnings Per Share Current its 10-year average discount of 7%. On a P/B basis, LB trades at a 46%
2009 $3.91A discount relative to peers compared to a 50% discount historically. We
2010 $4.64E believe the discount reflects the bank's group-low ROE.
2011 $4.90E
P/E
2009 12.0x
2010 10.1x Stock Price Performance
2011 9.6x

Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Laurentian Bank of Canada is a banking institution
operating across Canada and offering diversified CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
financial services to its clients. its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.laurentianbank.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Robert Sedran, CFA Mehmed Rizvanovic, CFA investment decision.
1 (416) 594-7874 (416) 594-7283 See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
Robert.Sedran@cibc.ca Mike.Rizvanovic@cibc.ca
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Meny Grauman, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-3723
Meny.Grauman@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Solid Results With Below-average Risk - September 17, 2010

Laurentian Bank
All Figures in $ millions, except per share data (excl. one-time items)
KEY MULTI PLES F2009A F2010E F2011E OUR THESIS
P/E Multiple 12.0x 10.1x 9.5x Laurentian continues to trade at a steep discount to its peers on both P/E and P/BVPS multiples. We
Peer average 12.4x 11.4x believe a discount is warranted given the company's relatively low ROE. Given LB's relatively high
fixed cost structure and smaller scale, we do not find the current valuation compelling enough to warrant
Q3-10
a buy recommendation. As such, we currently have a Sector Performer rating on the stock.
P/BVPS 1.1x
Peer average 2.0x
OPERATING PERFORMANCE F2009A F2010E F2011E SEGMENTED EARNINGS CONTRIBUTION
Core cash EPS $3.91 $4.64 $4.90
Annual EPS growth 8.3% 18.5% 5.7% 150%
7.0%
Core cash ROE 10.2% 11.1% 10.8% 125% 7. 9% 1. 7% 8.1%
Efficiency ratio 70.1% 67.9% 68.7% 100% 39.3%
33.8% 35.5% 30.4%
Operating leverage (YoY) 1.3% 8.4% (0.7% )
75% 34.7%
23.9% 29.1% 36.0%
CREDIT METRICS F2009A F2010E F2011E 50%
(1)
Loan loss rate 0.38% 0.40% 0.35% 25% 47.6% 41.8% 35.6%
37.5%
F2009A Q3-10 0% -13.2% -12.1%
-8.2% -32.9%
Gross impaired loans 137.5 182.5 -25%
Specific ACLs 41.3 56.7
Total ACLs 114.5 130.0 -50%
(2) F2007A F2008A F2009A Q3-10
Classical Coverage ratio 83% 71%
Retail & SME Quebec Real Estate & Commercial
Specific ACLs to GILs 30% 31%
B2B Trust Laurentian Bank Securities & Capital Markets
General ACLs as % of Gross Loans 0.46% 0.42% Other

KEY EARNI NGS DRIVERS F2009A F2010E F2011E FORWARD P/E MULTIPLE RELATIVE TO PEER GROUP (based on consensus estimates)
Core net interest income 423.8 499.2 534.6
150%
% change 4.6% 17.8% 7.1% 10-y r Av g R elativ e F w d P/E: 93% Current R elativ e Fw d P/E: 82%
Total capital markets related revenue 62.3 65.9 60.0
125%
% change 14% 6% (9%)
Provision for credit losses 56.0 67.7 61.1
100%
% change 15% 21% (10%)
Non-interest expenses 467.0 499.2 523.6
75%
% change 4.7% 6.9% 4.9%
CAPI TAL MEASURES F2009A F2010E F2011E 50%
Tier 1 capital ratio 11.0% 10.9% 11.6% Sep-00 Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10
Tangible common equity to RWA 8.5% 8.5% 9.2%
Tangible common equity to tangible assets 3.7% 3.7% 3.9% Current Relativ e Fw d P/ E 10-y r Av g R elativ e
Risk Weighted Assets 9,481 10,321 10,634
LOAN BOOK F2009A F2010E F2011E P/BVPS MULTIPLE RELATIVE TO PEER GROUP
Personal 5,655 5,702 5,875 80%
Residential mortgage 7,220 8,470 8,727 10-y r Av g R elativ e P/B: 50% Current R elativ e P/B: 54%
Commercial mortgage 1,285 1,524 1,570 70%
Commercial and other 1,556 1,727 1,779
Gross Loans 15,716 17,423 17,952 60%
Acceptances 217 191 202 50%
Total Gross Loans & Acceptances 15,933 17,614 18,155
40%

N otes : 30%
(1) PC Ls as a % of av erage net loans and acceptances (ex cl. repos ). Sep-00 Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10
(2) Total ACLs as a % of GILs. C urrent R elativ e P/B 10-y r Av g R elativ e

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

69
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Automotive

Linamar Corporation
Stock Rating:
Sector Performer
Company Profile
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $23.00
LNR-TSX (9/13/10) $19.31 „ Linamar designs and manufactures precision-machined components,
Key Indices: Toronto modules and assemblies for engine, transmission, braking and suspension
applications in light vehicle and heavy truck markets. The company has 37
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) NM manufacturing operations globally and over 11,100 employees.
52-week Range $12.00-$23.50
Shares Outstanding 64.7M
Float 45.6M Shrs „ Linamar is in the process of ramping up approximately $1.8 billion in launch
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 119,655 activity over the next few years. New program launches are expected to
Market Capitalization $1,249.4M contribute approximately $250 million-$450 million in additional revenue in
Dividend/Div Yield $0.24 / 1.2% both 2010 and 2011.
Fiscal Year Ends December
Book Value $12.15 per Shr „ Management anticipates the medium/heavy-duty and off-road truck
2010 ROE (E) 10.9% markets should improve significantly in 2011 versus 2010. Industry
Net Debt $339.7M
forecasts suggest growth of up to 40% year over year, above our prior
Preferred Nil
forecast of approximately 20% growth in 2011.
Common Equity $825.3M
Convertible Available No
„ Linamar's industrials segment remains challenging, although losses have
FD EPS Current declined over the past few quarters. Activity levels at Skyjack appear to
2009 $0.02A have started picking up (mildly). Overall we do not expect Linamar’s
2010 $1.44E Skyjack or agricultural operations to turn around significantly until 2012.
2011 $1.75E
P/E
2009 NM
2010 13.4x Stock Price Performance
2011 11.0x

EV/EBITDA
2009A 8.6x
2010E 5.4x
2011E 4.7x

Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Linamar Corporation designs and manufactures
precision-machined components and modules for CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
engine, transmission and chassis applications for sale to its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.linamar.ca Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Michael Willemse, CFA David Galison
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-7285 1 (416) 956-3548
Michael.Willemse@cibc.ca David.Galison@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Company Profile - September 17, 2010

Linamar (LNR-TSX) Sector Performer


Current Price: $19.31 Michael Willemse, CFA 416-594-7285 michael.willemse@cibc.ca

12- To 18-Month Price Target: $23 David Galison, MBA 416-956-3548 david.galison@cibc.ca

All Figures in CAD$ millions, except per share data


2010E 2011E
Key Multiples 2010E P/E EBITDA 2011E P/E EBITDA Investment Thesis

Linamar 13.4x 5.3x 10.5x 4.3x Linamar designs and manufactures precision-machined components, modules and
Canadian Peers 12.8x 5.3x 9.8x 4.4x assemblies for engine, transmission, braking and suspension applications in light vehicle
and heavy truck markets.
US Peers 13.2x 5.8x 9.8x 4.8x
NA Peers 13.4x 5.7x 9.9x 4.7x Linamar is ramping up several large transmission and engine platforms in 2010. Including
Historical Price To Forward Earnings 13.0x both new program launches and takeover business, Linamar is ramping up approximately
Historical EV/TTM EBITDA 5.0x $250-$450 million in new business. Approximately 50% of this business was launched in
Q1/10. We expect 40% will launch in Q2/10, with the remaining 10% over 2H/10. Peak
Operating Performance 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E
annualized volumes revenue from these new programs should be as follows: i) $750
Return on Equity 8.1% -4.2% 11.2% 12.6% million in transmission programs (these programs will be at 70-80% of peak volumes in
Return on Capital Employed 6.3% -1.9% 8.6% 9.8% 2010); ii) $625 million in engine programs (programs will be at 40-50% of peak volumes in
2010); iii) $425 million in driveline programs (programs will be at 10-16% of peak volumes
EBITDA Margin 13.1% 11.3% 13.8% 13.5%
in 2010); and iv) $150 in energy/heavy industry programs (will be at 5-10% of peak
EBIT Margin 5.3% 0.6% 6.7% 7.0% volumes in 2010). Approximately $150-$200 million in programs will roll off in 2010.
EBT Margin 4.5% -3.9% 6.1% 6.4%
Net Margin 3.2% -2.8% 4.3% 4.6% Linamar successfully reduced the company's cost structure during the recent downturn
and should benefit from favorable operating leverage as volumes continue to ramp-up.
LNR NA Vehicle Prod 12.93 8.65 11.38 11.95
However, Linamar is somewhat at risk of a continued downturn in non-residential
NA Content Per Vehicle $101.28 $130.32 $140.62 $149.06 construction markets through the company’s Skyjack operations.
LNR European Vehicle Prod 21.29 17.19 18.41 18.96
European Content Per Vehicle $7.58 $6.81 $7.54 $7.91
Production in millions
Quality of Earnings 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Auto Industry Statistics Seq y/y
Cash Realization Ratio1 3.6x -6.4x 2.4x 2.3x US Ligth Vehicle Sales (SAAR): 11.44 August -1.2% -18.6%
P/FCF 16.8x 7.5x -64.5x 32.9x US Domestic Inventory (Days) 53 August 3.1% 76.7%
FCF Yield 6.0% 13.3% -1.5% 3.0% NA Production Schedule: 3.044 Q3/10E -1.3% 27.2%
Implied Tax Rate 27.8% 46.7% 29.0% 29.0% Big 3 NA Prod Schedule: 1.711 Q3/10E -3.3% 34.2%
Interest Coverage 159.8x 1870.7x 91.0x 74.7x Production and Sales in millions
Income Statement 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Valuation & Outlook
Sales $2,257.0 $1,675.9 $2,177.8 $2,534.9 Current Price: $19.31 Rating: SP
Gross Profit $422.3 $284.2 $400.6 $453.0 Price Target: $23.00
EBITDA $296.3 $188.7 $300.0 $343.0 12-18 Mo Return: 19.1%
EBIT $119.4 $10.4 $144.9 $178.0 Price Target Represents: 2009A 2010E 2011E
EBT $102.1 ($64.8) $132.2 $162.8 P/E: nmf 16.0x 13.1x
Minority Interest ($1.8) ($0.7) ($0.5) $0.0 Enterprise Value: $1,735 $1,772 $1,771
Net Income $71.9 ($46.9) $93.5 $115.6 EV/EBITDA: 9.2x 5.9x 5.2x
FD EPS, (Ex. Unusuals) $1.05 $0.02 $1.44 $1.75 EV/Sales: 1.0x 0.8x 0.7x
FD S/O 66.8 65.0 65.0 66.0 P/BV: 1.9x 1.7x 1.6x
FCF Yield: 11.2% -1.3% 2.6%
Cash Flow 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Chart: Sales, EBITDA & EBITDA margin
Operating cash flow $258.8 $298.2 $222.1 $268.8 $2,
Capex ($181.8) ($130.7) ($241.6) ($230.0) $2,
750 16%
$2,
500
Changes in working capital ($9.5) $127.6 ($47.5) ($21.8) 15%
$2,
250
Free Cash Flow2 $77.0 $167.5 ($19.5) $38.8 $1,
000 14%
$1,
750 13%
FCF per Share $1.15 $2.57 ($0.30) $0.59 $1,
500
Balance Sheet 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E $1, 12%
250
000 11%
Cash $83.5 $98.0 $0.0 $0.0 $75
$50
0 10%
Total debt $473.5 $337.0 $275.5 $252.2 $25
0 9%
Equity $878.3 $807.6 $865.8 $965.9 0
$0 8%
Net debt (Cash) $390.0 $239.0 $275.5 $252.2
2004A

2005A

2006A

2007A

2008A

2009A

2010E

2011E

Net debt per share $5.84 $3.67 $4.24 $3.82


Net debt/EBITDA 3.8x -3.7x 2.1x 1.5x
Book Value Per Unit (FD) $13.15 $12.42 $13.31 $14.62 Sales EBITDA EBITDA Margin
1
Calculated as CFO divided by Net Income. 2 Calculated as CFO less Capex
Source: WardsAuto, Bloomberg, Company reports and ClBC World Markets Inc.

71
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Automotive

Magna International Inc.


Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Company Profile
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $108.00
MGA-NYSE (9/13/10) $78.80 „ Magna designs, develops and manufactures automotive systems, modules
Key Indices: S&P 500, Toronto and components, and engineers and assembles complete vehicles. Magna
operates 247 manufacturing operations and 86 product development,
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) 9.4% engineering and sales centres in 25 countries.
52-week Range $39.01-$86.22
Shares Outstanding 112.2M
Float 106.5M Shrs „ The North American light vehicle market remains stable, with upside
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 742,447 potential, and the European premium car makers are reporting double-digit
Market Capitalization $8,841.4M sales growth in 2010. European premium car makers make up the majority
Dividend/Div Yield $1.20 / 1.5% of Magna's European sales (70%-75%).
Fiscal Year Ends December
Book Value $67.87 per Shr „ On August 31, Magna completed the collapse of its dual-class share
2010 ROE (E) 11.2% structure through which Magna's founder, Frank Stronach, and his family,
Net Cash $1,224.00M
have controlled Magna since the late 1970s. The closing of the transaction
Preferred Nil
coincided with the formation of the E-Car vehicle electrification JV.
Common Equity $7,615.0M
Convertible Available Yes
„ We expect Magna's now independent management team to focus on the
FD EPS Current following: 1) acquisitions and growth initiatives in China and South America;
2009 ($1.87A) 2) a more efficient capital structure and greater attention to valuation; and
2010 $8.32E 3) reduced focus on non-core investments or acquisitions of OEMs.
2011 $9.02E
P/E
2009 NM
2010 9.5x Stock Price Performance
2011 8.7x
FD EPS excludes unusuals.
EV/EBITDA
2009A 15.3x
2010E 4.4x
2011E 3.9x

Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in US dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Magna International Inc. is a leading global supplier of
interior, exterior, vehicle body, powertrain and fuel CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
systems. The company also performs vehicle its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
engineering, assembly and testing. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.magnaint.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Michael Willemse, CFA David Galison
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-7285 1 (416) 956-3548
Michael.Willemse@cibc.ca David.Galison@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Company Profile - September 17, 2010

Magna International (MGA-NYSE) Sector Outperformer


Current Price: $78.8 Michael Willemse, CFA 416-594-7285 michael.willemse@cibc.ca
12- To 18-Month Price Target: $108 David Galison, MBA 416-956-3548 david.galison@cibc.ca
All Figures in USD$ millions, except per share data
2010E 2011E
Key Multiples 2010E P/E EBITDA 2011E P/E EBITDA Investment Thesis

Magna 10.3x 4.9x 9.5x 4.3x Magna designs, develops and manufactures automotive systems, modules and
components, and engineers and assembles complete vehicles. Magna
Canadian Auto Suppliers 13.0x 5.5x 10.0x 4.5x
operates 247 manufacturing operations and 86 product development,
U.S. Auto Suppliers 12.4x 5.9x 10.0x 4.8x engineering and sales centres in 25 countries. The significant decline in
Combined North American Peers 12.9x 5.8x 10.0x 4.8x production volumes in 2009 has resulted in Magna becoming a leaner
Magna operator, particularly through an increased focus on efficiencies. As a result,
Historical Price To Forward Earnings 11.2x Magna should benefit from significant operating leverage to the rebound in light
vehicle production in 2010.
Historical EV/TTM EBITDA 4.1x
Magna Guidance
Operating Performance 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E - 2010 sales are expected to be $22-$23 bln
Return on Equity 4.6% -5.0% 11.2% 12.5% - 2010 North American light vehicle production is expected to be 11.5 mln
- European light vehicle production guidance increased to 12.0 mln
Return on Capital Employed 3.8% -4.7% 11.9% 12.5%
- North American CPV of $955-$985
EBITDA Margin 5.9% 3.1% 8.3% 8.8% - EU CPV of $520-$545
Operating Margin 2.2% -1.1% 5.3% 5.9% - Complete vehicle sales of $1.8-2.1 bln
Pre-tax Margin 1.4% -2.2% 5.3% 6.1% - Capex at $750-$800 mln.
Net Margin 1.6% -2.2% 4.1% 4.5%

Quality of Earnings 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Auto Industry Statistics


Cash Realization Ratio1 2.7x -1.4x 1.7x 1.5x Seq y/y
P/FCF 27.9x -86.4x 11.6x 10.8x US Ligth Vehicle Sales (SAAR): 11.44 August -1.2% -18.6%
FCF Yield 3.6% -1.2% 8.6% 9.3% US Domestic Inventory (Days) 53 August 5.0% 48.3%
Implied Tax Rate 43.4% 9.0% 22.4% 27.0% NA Production Schedule (mlns) 3.044 Q3/10E -1.3% 27.2%
Interest Coverage -8.5x -27.5x -99.8x -53.8x Big 3 NA Prod Schedule (mlns) 1.711 Q3/10E -3.3% 34.2%

Income Statement 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Valuation & Outlook


Consolidated Revenue $23,704.0 $17,366.6 $22,670.9 $24,329.9 Current Price: $78.80 Rating: SO
Cost Of Goods Sold $20,982.0 $15,697.0 $19,499.2 $20,886.2 Price Target: $108.00
Gross Profit $2,722.0 $1,669.6 $3,171.7 $3,443.8 12-18 Mo Return: 37.1%
SG&A $1,319.0 $1,261.0 $1,283.0 $1,300.0 Price Target Represents: 2009A 2010E 2011E
EBITDA $1,403.0 $544.6 $1,888.7 $2,143.8 P/E: nmf 13.0x 12.0x
Interest Expense (Income) ($62.0) $7.0 ($12.2) ($26.9) P/E (less cash): nmf 11.7x 10.8x
Depreciation & Amortization $873.0 $737.0 $676.0 $700.0 Enterprise Value: $11,179 $11,578 $10,835
EBIT $530.0 ($192.5) $1,212.7 $1,443.8 EV/EBITDA: 20.5x 6.1x 5.1x
Net Income $384.0 ($384.5) $939.0 $1,095.6 EV/Sales: 0.6x 0.5x 0.4x
EPS, Diluted (Ex. Unusuals) $5.72 ($1.87) $8.32 $9.02 P/BV: 1.6x 1.6x 1.5x
FD S/O 111.6 111.8 117.4 121.5 FCF Yield: -0.8% 6.3% 6.8%

Cash Flow 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Chart: Sales, EBITDA & EBITDA margin
Operating cash flow $1,054.0 $527.0 $1,570.5 $1,661.7
Capex ($739.0) ($629.0) ($772.0) ($775.0) $30,000 12%
Changes in working capital ($265.0) ($94.0) ($114.4) ($151.5)
Free Cash Flow2 $315.0 ($102.0) $798.5 $886.7 $25,000 10%

FCF per Share $2.82 ($0.91) $6.80 $7.30 $20,000 8%

Balance Sheet 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E $15,000 6%

Cash $2,757.0 $1,334.0 $1,670.8 $2,414.1 $10,000 4%


Total debt $1,209.0 $179.0 $84.0 $84.0
$5,000 2%
Equity $7,363.0 $7,360.0 $7,997.0 $8,949.1
Net debt (Cash) ($1,548.0) ($1,155.0) ($1,586.8) ($2,330.1) $0 0%
Q3/10E
Q4/10E
2010E
2011E
2003A
2004A
2005A
2006A
2007A
2008A
2009A
Q1/10A
Q2/10A

Net debt per share ($13.87) ($10.33) ($13.52) ($19.18)


Net debt/EBITDA -1.1x -2.1x -0.8x -1.1x
Book Value Per Unit (FD) $65.98 $65.83 $68.12 $73.66

1
Calculated as CFO divided by Net Income. Sales EBITDA EBITDA Margin
2
Calculated as CFO less Capex
Source: WardsAuto, Bloomberg, Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

73
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Telecommunications & Cable Services

Manitoba Telecom Services Inc.


Stock Rating:
Sector Performer
MTS Looks To Move Forward After Dividend Cut
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $26.00
MBT-TSX (9/13/10) $27.65 „ MTS is the incumbent telecommunications provider in Manitoba and offers
Key Indices: S&P/TSX Midcap wireless, high-speed Internet and data, digital TV, and wireline voice
services. MTS also owns MTS Allstream, a national communications provider
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) NM for medium to large business customers.
52-week Range $24.71-$35.39
Shares Outstanding 64.7M
Float 64.4M Shrs „ To date, MTS continues to be one of the most resilient wireline players in
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 302,395 North America. Its residential wireline losses remain at a very reasonable
Market Capitalization $1,789.0M ~5.5% y/y, compared to Bell at ~7.0%-8.0% y/y and its U.S. ILEC peers at
Dividend/Div Yield $1.70 / 6.1% ~11%-12% y/y.
Fiscal Year Ends December
Book Value $19.82 per Shr „ Despite this, MTS faces material LT secular challenges including ongoing
2010 ROE (E) 7.2% cable competition and wireless substitution. The company has recently cut
Net Debt $968.9M
its dividend with funds to be used to accelerate fibre-to-the-home
Preferred Nil
deployment with plans to invest $125 million over the next five years.
Common Equity $1,282.3M
Convertible Available No
„ MTS is cheap by any measure, but lacks a NT catalyst and continues to face
Earnings Per Share Current concerns with Allstream. A recent 25% dividend cut by the company as a
2009 $2.64A function of a poorly performing Allstream unit points to the lack of
2010 $1.96E confidence in this asset. As such, we retain our Sector Performer rating.
2011 $1.74E
P/E
2009 10.5x
2010 14.1x Stock Price Performance
2011 15.9x

EBITDA ($ mlns.)
EBITDA
2009A $627.3
2010E $591.3
2011E $584.4

EV/EBITDA
2009A 4.4x
2010E 4.7x
2011E 4.7x Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
MTS Inc. is the incumbent telecommunications provider
in Manitoba and offers voice, data, video and wireless CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
services. MTS also owns MTS Allstream, Canada's its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
largest alternative telecom carrier. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.mtsallstream.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Robert Bek, CFA Michael Lee, CFA investment decision.
1 (416) 594-7454 1 (416) 594-7907 See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
Bob.Bek@cibc.ca Michaelc.Lee@cibc.ca
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Tony Rizzi
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-7299
Tony.Rizzi@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
MTS Looks To Move Forward After Dividend Cut - September 17, 2010

Manitoba Telecom Services Inc. (MBT - TSX) Sector Performer


Current Price: C$27.65 Robert Bek, CFA (416-594-7454) Bob.Bek@cibc.ca
12- To 18- Month Price Target: C$26.00 Michael Lee, CFA (416-594-7454) Michaelc.Lee@cibc.ca
Tony Rizzi (416-594-7299) Tony Rizzi@cibc.ca
All figures in millions except per share data
EV / EBITDA Multiples 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Company Profile

Manitoba Telecom - 4.4x 4.7x 4.7x MTS is a leading national communications provider in Canada, offering wireline voice,
BCE Inc. (excl. Aliant) - 5.8x 5.6x 5.5x broadband internet and data, video, and wireless services to consumer markets. The
company also owns an Enterprise Solutions division, operating under the Allstream brand,
TELUS Corp. - 6.0x 5.7x 5.5x
targeting the national business and wholesale markets.
U.S. ILECs - 5.5x 5.5x 5.5x

P / E Multiples 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Investment Thesis

Manitoba Telecom - 10.5x 14.1x 15.9x MTS is one of the best performing wireline players in North America. Its residential wireline
BCE Inc. (excl. Aliant) - 13.1x 11.7x 11.5x losses remain at a very reasonable ~5.0%-6.0% y/y, compared with Bell at ~7.0%-8.0% y/y
TELUS Corp. - 13.7x 13.0x 12.4x and its U.S. ILEC peers at ~11%-12% y/y.
U.S. ILEC Peers - 13.9x 13.8x 13.3x
Offsetting some of consumers' strength, however, is MTS' above average exposure to the
Key Financial Metrics 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Enterprise segment (Allstream) which is under pressure. Should economic conditions
worsen, Allstream may see further contraction going forward.
Free Cash Flow Yield - 16.9% 11.4% 12.2%
Payout Ratio - 61.7% 83.0% 64.1% MTS faces material LT secular challenges (ongoing cable competition and wireless
Capital Intensity - 16.1% 18.9% 16.2% substitution). The company has recently cut their dividend with funds to be used to
Net Debt / EBITDA - 1.5x 1.7x 1.6x accelerate fibre-to-the-home deployment in Manitoba (investing $125 million over the next 5
years).
Effective Tax Rate - 41.5% 33.1% 32.5%

Income Statement 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Chart 1: Revenues By Segment (2010E)

Revenue - 1,828.7 1,777.1 1,760.5 Manitoba


OpEx - 1,201.4 1,185.8 1,176.1 Wireline
32%
EBITDA - 627.3 591.3 584.4
Amortization - 322.7 333.8 345.0 Allstream
EBIT - 252.9 216.7 199.4 48%
Interest Expense - 59.5 71.2 72.5
EBT - 204.3 148.8 127.0
Tax Expense (Recovery) - 84.7 49.2 41.3 Manitoba
Wireless
Other
Net Income - 119.60 99.62 85.69 18%
2%
Adj. FD EPS - 2.64 1.96 1.74

Free Cash Flow 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Key Operating Statistics (Last Reported Qtr.)
Q2/09 Q2/10 y/y Growth
EBITDA - 627.3 591.3 584.4 Wireline ('000):
Less: Residential Lines 367.6 347.5 -5.5%
Capex - 295.2 335.0 285.0 Business Lines 234.5 229.3 -2.2%
Cash Interest - 59.5 71.2 72.5 Hish-Speed Internet Subs 179.0 184.5 3.1%
MTS TV Subs 83.7 89.5 7.0%
Wireless ('000):
Operating Free Cash Flow (FCF)1 - 272.6 183.7 197.0
Total Subs 446.3 469.7 5.3%
Operating FCF Per Share - 4.21 2.84 3.04
Total Net Adds 8.0 10.2 NM
Blended ARPU $55.61 $56.06 0.8%

Note:
1. Operating FCF = EBITDA – PPE – Interest.
Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

75
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Canadian Insurance

Manulife Financial Corporation


Stock Rating:
Sector Performer
Financial Markets Dominate Near-term Valuation
Sector Weighting:
Discussion
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $15.00
MFC-TSX (9/13/10) $13.64 „ MFC is the second-largest life insurance company in Canada by market
Key Indices: Toronto capitalization, but the largest in terms of asset size. The company is split
into five main operating lines: Canada Division, U.S. Division (Wealth and
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) 10.0% Insurance), Asia and Japan Division, Reinsurance and Corporate (Other).
52-week Range $11.27-$23.26
Shares Outstanding 1,766.0M
Float 1,766.0M Shrs „ MFC's Q2/10 loss exceeded even the most pessimistic estimate. The loss
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 7,958,000 was driven by the decline in equity markets and the material decline in
Market Capitalization $24,088.2M interest rates during the period. In the upcoming quarter, we expect results
Dividend/Div Yield $0.52 / 3.8% to be materially negatively affected by reserve building charges.
Fiscal Year Ends December
Book Value $14.89 per Shr „ As at Q2/10, MFC had an MCCSR ratio of 221%, significantly lower than the
2010 ROE (E) 11.0% 250% reported at the end of Q1. While that is still well above the 150%
LT Debt $3,307.0M
regulatory minimum, we believe 200% is closer to what the market sees as
Preferred $1,422.00M
the de facto lower bound.
Common Equity $26,291.0M
Convertible Available No
„ Currently MFC trades at 0.9x P/B, a 38% discount to its peers, compared
Earnings Per Share Current with its nine-year average premium of 2%. In the near term, we believe
2009 $0.81A macro factors - rather than the insurance business - are likely to be the
2010 $0.08E primary drivers of valuation, which means risks remain elevated.
2011 $1.75E
P/E
2009 16.8x
2010 NM Stock Price Performance
2011 7.8x

Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Manulife Financial Corporation is a leading Canadian-
based financial services group and one of the largest life CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
insurance companies in the world. its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.manulife.ca Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Robert Sedran, CFA Mehmed Rizvanovic, CFA investment decision.
1 (416) 594-7874 (416) 594-7283 See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
Robert.Sedran@cibc.ca Mike.Rizvanovic@cibc.ca
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Meny Grauman, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-3723
Meny.Grauman@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Financial Markets Dominate Near-term Valuation Discussion - September 17, 2010

Manulife Financial (MFC)


All Figures in C$ millions, except per share data

Key Multiples Years Ending Our Thesis


Q4-08 Q4-09 Q4-10E Q4-11E M FC is the most sensitive lifeco to fluctuations in equity markets and interest rates in
our coverage universe. This higher relative risk profile was illustrated by the
P/E Multiple 41.0x 16.9x nmf 7.8x company's large reported loss in Q2 2010. Despite the cheaper relative valuation,
Peer Average (SLF, GWO, IAG) 11.9x 10.3x volatility remains high and the near-term outlook is littered with charges that will
Quarter Ending reduce earnings and book value. We rate the stock Sector Performer.
Q2-10
Book Value Per Share $14.89
P/B Multiple 0.9x
Peer Average (SLF, GWO, IAG) 1.5x

Operating Performance Years Ending Segmented Earnings (Before Preferred Dividends) - For Years Ending
Q4-08 Q4-09 Q4-10E Q4-11E 100%
Core EPS - Fully Diluted ($) 0.33 0.81 0.08 1.75
Annual EPS growth 143% (90%) nmf 80%
1,319
Core ROE 2.0% 5.0% 0.6% 11.0% 60%
Payout Ratio 300.6% 96.6% 618.5% 29.7% 178
1,738 686
40% 344
Book Value Per Share (BVPS) ($) 16.48 15.59 15.44 16.67 779
379
2,186 175
Embedded Value Per Share ($) 28.68 23.20 n/a n/a 20%
656 386 924
745
0%
Capital Years Ending Quarter Ending (388)
(1,441) (423)
Q4-08 Q4-09 Q2-10 -20% (922)
(2,087) (419)
Available Capital 19,437 26,784 $25,500 -40% (328)
Q4-08 Q4-09 Q4-10E Q4-11E
Required Capital 8,293 11,167 $11,526
C anada U .S. Insuranc e U. S. Wealth Asia & Japan Reinsuranc e Corporate
MCCSR Ratio 234% 240% 221%

Source of Earnings Years Ending Forward P/E Multiple* Relative To The Peer Group
Q4-08 Q4-09 Q4-10E Q4-11E 350%
Expected Profit - In-Force Business 3,220 3,731 3,286 3,494 9-y ear Av erage Relativ e P/E = 111% Current Relative P/E = 329%
Impact of New Business (326) (424) (562) (520) 300%
Experience Gains (Losses) (3,351) (1,977) (3,246) 775
250%
Changes in Assumptions 500 (1,593) 74 -
Earnings on Surplus 562 4 405 476 200%
Other (8) 89 1 -
150%
Income before Taxes 597 (170) (42) 4,225
Income Taxes (80) 1,572 274 (1,056) 100%
Net Income 517 1,402 232 3,169
50%
Less: Preferred Share Dividends (30) (64) (80) (80)
Sep-01

Sep-03

Sep-04

Sep-06

Sep-07

Sep-09

Sep-10
Sep-02

Sep-05

Sep-08
Net I ncome to Common Shareholders 487 1,338 152 3,089

Assets Years Ending * Bas ed on c onsensus es timates


Q4-08 Q4-09 P/B Multiple Relative To The Peer Group
Cash & Short-Term Investments 17,269 18,780
140%
Bonds 83,148 85,107 9-y ear Average Relativ e P/B = 102% Current Relative P/B = 62%
Stocks 8,240 9,688 130%
Mortgages 30,963 30,699 120%
Private Placements 25,705 22,912
110%
Policy Loans 7,533 6,609
Bank Loans 2,384 2,457 100%
Real Estate 6,345 5,897 90%
Other Investments/Bank Loans 5,914 5,321
80%
Total Invested Assets 187,501 187,470
Goodwill 7,929 7,122 70%
Intangible Assets 2,115 2,005 60%
Total Other Assets 13,480 8,543
50%
Total Assets 211,025 205,140
Sep-01

Sep-03

Sep-05

Sep-06

Sep-08

Sep-10
Sep-02

Sep-04

Sep-07

Sep-09

Common Equity 26,526 27,405

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

77
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Banks

National Bank Of Canada


Stock Rating:
Sector Performer
Below-average Risk Profile Confirmed Through The
Sector Weighting:
Downturn
Overweight
12-18 mo. Price Target $68.00
NA-TSX (9/13/10) $66.71 „ NA is the sixth-largest Canadian bank by market capitalization, with assets of
Key Indices: TSXFinSv $146 billion as at Q3/F10. Over the last year, NA derived 47% of its adjusted
earnings from P&C Banking, 44% from Financial Markets and 9% from Wealth
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) 7.0% Management, excluding a $121 million loss in the corp. segment.
52-week Range $54.40-$66.77
Shares Outstanding 162.3M
Float 162.3M Shrs „ The fact that NA was able to earn through a tough trading quarter in
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 712,000 Q3/F10 was a clear positive, and the main reason our estimates were little
Market Capitalization $10,829.7M changed. Looking forward, its strong results through the downturn leave
Dividend/Div Yield $2.48 / 3.7% less room for earnings outperformance in F2011, in our view.
Fiscal Year Ends October
Book Value $36.01 per Shr „ Based on our estimates, NA is the only bank of the Big Six whose forecast
2010 ROE (E) 16.5% payout ratio is below its target range (39% in F2011, versus a 40% to 50%
LT Debt $2,019.0M
target). With visibility on capital improving, this bank should be the first to
Preferred $1,089.00M
increase its dividend (possibly as soon as Q4/F10 reporting).
Common Equity $5,846.0M
Convertible Available No
„ NA's valuation multiples have remained flat on a relative basis over the past
Earnings Per Share Current several months. NA's forward P/E multiple is at a 13% discount relative to
2009 $6.32A peers, but roughly in line with its 10-year average. On a P/B basis, NA
2010 $6.09E trades at a 14% discount relative to peers vs. an 18% discount historically.
2011 $6.38E
P/E
2009 10.6x
2010 11.0x Stock Price Performance
2011 10.5x
Cash EPS excluding one-time items.

Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
National Bank of Canada provides comprehensive
financial services to its individual and corporate CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
customers. its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.nbc.ca Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Robert Sedran, CFA Mehmed Rizvanovic, CFA investment decision.
1 (416) 594-7874 (416) 594-7283 See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
Robert.Sedran@cibc.ca Mike.Rizvanovic@cibc.ca
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Meny Grauman, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-3723
Meny.Grauman@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Below-average Risk Profile Confirmed Through The Downturn - September 17, 2010

National Bank
All Figures in $ millions, except per share data (excl. one-time items)
KEY MULTI PLES F2009A F2010E F2011E OUR THESIS
P/E Multiple 10.6x 11.0x 10.5x Falling PCL's will be a major driver of earnings recovery for the Canadian banks over the next couple
Peer average 12.7x 11.5x of years; a catalyst to which NA is proportionately less exposed. In addition, we believe the bank's
growth profile is more limited relative to some of its peers. The shares currently trade at a discount,
Q3-10
which we view as justified at this time. NA is rated Sector Performer.
P/BVPS 1.9x
Peer average 2.1x
OPERATING PERFORMANCE F2009A F2010E F2011E SEGMENTED EARNINGS CONTRIBUTION
Core cash EPS $6.32 $6.09 $6.38
125%
Annual EPS growth 15.6% (3.6%) 4.7%
Core cash ROE 20.1% 17.5% 16.5% 100%
Efficiency ratio 59.3% 60.7% 60.5% 39% 36% 36%
48%
Operating leverage (YoY) (1.4% ) (1.2%) 2.6% 75%
19% 10%
CREDIT METRICS F2009A F2010E F2011E 18%
11%
(1) 50%
Loan loss rate 0.31% 0.23% 0.18%
54% 59%
F2009A Q3-10 25% 51% 47%
Gross impaired loans 407 379
Specific ACLs 58 203 0% -9%
Total ACLs 514 655 -7% -6% -5%
(2) -25%
Classical Coverage ratio 126% 173%
Specific ACLs to GILs 14% 54% F2007A F2008A F2009A Q3-10
General ACLs as % of Gross Loans & BAs 0.78% 0.72% Personal & Commercial Banking Wealth Management Financial Markets Other

KEY EARNI NGS DRIVERS F2009A F2010E F2011E FORWARD P/E MULTIPLE RELATIVE TO PEER GROUP (based on consensus estimates)
Core net interest income 1,410 1,511 1,583
% change (12.1%) 7.1% 4.8% 110%
(3) 10-y ear Av erage Relativ e F w d P/E: 8 8% Cu rrent Relati v e Fw d P/E : 87%
Total capital markets related revenue 1,259 1,064 1,091
100%
% change 31.3% (15.5%) 2.5%
Provision for credit losses 179 138 111 90%
% change 53% (23%) (20%)
Non-interest expenses 2,652 2,697 2,732 80%

% change 3.7% 1.7% 1.3% 70%


CAPI TAL MEASURES F2009A F2010E F2011E
60%
Tier 1 capital ratio 10.7% 13.3% 14.2%
Sep-00

Sep-01

Sep-02

Sep-03

Sep-04

Sep-05

Sep-06

Sep-07

Sep-08

Sep-09

Sep-10
Tangible common equity to RWA 7.2% 9.2% 10.2%
Tangible common equity to tangible assets 3.2% 3.3% 3.5% Current Relativ e P/ E 6-month Mov ing Av erage
Plus 1 S tandard De v iation Minus 1 standard De v iation
Risk Weighted Assets 58,607 51,788 53,359
LOAN BOOK F2009A F2010E F2011E P/BVPS MULTIPLE RELATIVE TO PEER GROUP
Residential mortgages 14,958 15,900 16,383
110%
Personal and credit cards 18,290 20,164 20,776 10-y ear Av erage R elativ e P/B = 82% C urrent R elativ e P/B = 86%
Business and government 19,389 20,649 20,653 100%
Net Loans 52,637 56,713 57,812 90%
Acceptances 5,733 6,044 6,289
Total Net Loans & Acceptances 58,370 62,757 64,101 80%

70%

60%
N otes :
50%
(1) PC Ls as a % of av erage net loans and acceptances (ex cl. repos ).
Sep-05

Sep-07

Sep-09
Sep-00

Sep-01

Sep-02

Sep-03

Sep-04

Sep-06

Sep-08

Sep-10

(2) Total ACLs as a % of GILs.


(3) Ex cludes gains /(losses ) on inv estm ent sec urities.

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

79
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Capital Equipment

New Flyer Industries Inc.


Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Company Profile
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target C$12.50
NFI.UN-TSX (9/13/10) C$11.91 „ New Flyer is a leading manufacturer of heavy-duty transit buses for transit
Key Indices: Toronto authorities (TAs) throughout the U.S. and Canada, holding the largest
market share at approximately 37% in 2009, down slightly from 41% in
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) NM 2008. The company also provides aftermarket parts and service support.
52-week Range C$7.99-C$11.94
Shares Outstanding 49.5M
Float 47.1M Shrs „ NFI is North America's market leader in the heavy-duty transit industry with
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 118,532 leading technology and a broad product offering. Longer term, NFI's cash
Market Capitalization $573.3M flow generation should be positively impacted by improved operating
Dividend/Div Yield C$1.17 / 9.8% efficiencies, new products and further growth of the aftermarket operations.
Fiscal Year Ends December
Book Value $2.59 per Shr „ We are concerned near-term funding from U.S. and Canadian municipal TAs
2010 ROE (E) NM may be negatively impacted by fiscal spending cuts. Ultimately, a decline in
Net Debt $379.7M
public spending would likely be temporary as the market eventually
Preferred Nil
rebounds and replacement demand drives spending for new fleets.
Common Equity $123.5M
Convertible Available No
„ An upcoming replacement cycle, environmental concerns and increased
EBITDA ($ mlns.) Current urbanization suggest public transit ridership should eventually rebound. A
2009 $102.7A 12-year replacement cycle suggests annual replacement demand of
2010 $103.4E approximately 7,000-8,000 units per year sometime during 2011-2014.
2011 $95.9E
EV/EBITDA
2009 6.2x
2010 6.2x Stock Price Performance
2011 6.7x

Distributable Income Per Unit


2009 $1.52A
2010 $1.47E
2011 $1.38E
P/DI
2009 7.6x
2010 7.9x
2011 8.4x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in US dollars, unless otherwise stated.(C$1.028:US$1)
New Flyer Industries Inc. is the largest North American
manufacturer of heavy-duty transit buses supplying CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
transit authorities in Canada and the U.S. its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.newflyer.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Michael Willemse, CFA David Galison
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-7285 1 (416) 956-3548
Michael.Willemse@cibc.ca David.Galison@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Company Profile - September 17, 2010

New Flyer Industries (NFI.UN-TSX) Sector Outperformer


Current Price: $11.91 Michael Willemse, CFA 416-594-7285 michael.willemse@cibc.ca

12- To 18-Month Price Target: $12.5 David Galison, MBA 416-956-3548 david.galison@cibc.ca

All Figures in USD$ (000), except per share data


2010E 2011E
Key Multiples 2010E P/E EBITDA 2011E P/E EBITDA Investment Thesis
New Flyer nmf 5.8x nmf 6.2x New Flyer was founded in 1930 in Winnipeg, Manitoba, with its primary focus being
Industrial Trusts 14.7x 8.2x 11.3x 6.9x motor coaches and school buses. In 1971, the company began to focus on
manufacturing transit buses exclusively. In 1986, the company was acquired by a Dutch
Corporates 14.5x 7.9x 12.9x 6.6x bus manufacturer Den Oudsten BV, which introduced low floor buses in 1988. New
Historical Price To Forward Earnings 11.3x Flyer has facilities located in Winnipeg, Manitoba, St. Cloud, Minnesota, Crookston,
Minnesota, Earlanger. The U.S. facilities allow New Flyer to comply with “Buy America”
Historical EV/TTM EBITDA 6.1x
legislation and funding rules.
Operating Performance 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E
Return on Equity 59.4% -30.2% 25.6% 11.7% New Flyer is a leading manufacturer of heavy-duty transit buses to transit authorities
throughout the U.S. and Canada with a market share of 35%-40%. The company also
Return on Capital Employed 9.4% 10.3% 10.9% 10.1%
provides aftermarket parts and service support. New Flyer primarily manufactures
EBITDA Margin 9.8% 8.6% 2.2% 9.1% heavy-duty buses of between 30 feet and 60 feet with seating capacity for up to 65
EBIT Margin 15.0% 2.3% 0.5% 6.8% passengers. New Flyer’s product offerings are among the broadest and most advanced
EBT Margin 9.9% -1.3% 3.9% 2.0% in the industry.

Net Margin 9.1% -2.8% 3.0% 1.3%


Quality of Earnings 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Ridership Stats
Cash Realization Ratio1 0.9x -2.6x 2.5x 5.3x Q1/10 Q1/09 y/y∆
P/FCF 6.6x 6.8x 6.8x 7.3x US Bus Transit Passengers (mlns) 1,297 1,351 -4.0%
FCF Yield (inc. W/C chgs) 15.3% 14.7% 14.6% 13.8% New Flyer Shipments 453 593 -23.6%
Effective Tax Rate 8.3% 116.4% 23.9% 34.0% - Orders (1H/10 vs. 1H/09) 860 1,068 -19.5%
Interest Coverage 3.6x 0.8x 2.0x 1.5x 2010E 2011E
Industry Shipment Ests 5,500 5,500 0.0%
New Flyer Shipment Ests 2,068 2,052 -0.8%
Income Statement 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Valuation & Outlook
Sales $961.3 $1,099.9 $1,065.9 $1,050.7 Current Price: $11.91 Rating: SO
Gross Profit $140.5 $146.8 $150.8 $143.2 Price Target: $12.50
EBITDA $94.6 $102.7 $103.4 $95.9 12-18 Mo Return: 14.8%
EBIT $144.4 $35.8 $94.5 $71.9 Price Target Represents: 2009A 2010E 2011E
EBT $95.6 ($14.0) $41.4 $21.2 P/E: nmf nmf nmf
Minority Interest P/CF 8.0x 8.0x 8.4x
Net Income $87.6 ($30.4) $31.5 $14.0 Enterprise Value: $592 $619 $619
FD EPS, (Ex. Unusuals) $0.29 $0.42 $0.36 $0.28 EV/EBITDA: 6.0x 6.3x 6.7x
Units Outstanding 47.3 47.3 49.5 49.5 EV/Sales: 0.5x 0.6x 0.6x
P/BV: 5.9x 5.0x 5.2x
FCF Yield: 12.0% 11.9% 11.3%
Cash Flow 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Chart: Sales, EBITDA & EBITDA margin
Operating cash flow $79.2 $77.5 $79.5 $74.6
$1,200.0 12.0%
Capex ($6.8) ($5.5) ($6.7) ($6.4)
Changes in working capital $6.5 $15.1 ($23.1) $0.7 $1,000.0 10.0%
2
Free Cash Flow $86.0 $83.0 $86.2 $81.0
$800.0 8.0%
FCF per Share $1.82 $1.75 $1.74 $1.64
Balance Sheet 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E $600.0 6.0%
Cash $30.7 $30.7 $25.8 $43.0
$400.0 4.0%
Total debt $345.6 $384.5 $391.7 $3,925.2
Equity $147.6 $100.7 $123.2 $119.5 $200.0 2.0%
Net debt (Cash) $314.9 $353.8 $365.9 $349.5
$0.0 0.0%
Net debt per share $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01
F2006 F2007 F2008 F2009 F2010E F2011E
Net debt/EBITDA 3.3x 3.4x 3.5x 3.6x
Sales EBITDA EBITDA Margin
Book Value Per Unit (FD) $3.12 $2.13 $2.49 $2.42
1
Calculated as CFO divided by Net Income
2
Calculated as CFO less Capex
Source: WardsAuto, Bloomberg, Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

81
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Diversified Financial

Power Financial Corporation


Stock Rating:
Sector Performer
Strong Franchises, But Limited Growth At Present
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $31.00
PWF-TSX (9/13/10) $29.76 „ Power Financial (PWF) is a holding company that focuses on the financial
Key Indices: Toronto services industry. Its main investments are Great-West Lifeco (68.4%), IGM
Financial (56.5%) and Pargesa Holding S.A. (27.1%). Power Corporation
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) NM owns 66.3% of PWF.
52-week Range $26.75-$34.23
Shares Outstanding 708.0M
Float 228.1M Shrs „ Great-West is the primary driver of NAV for PWF, accounting for about 74%
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 625,740 of NAV and about 78% of operating earnings (2010 YTD). IGM is the
Market Capitalization $21,070.4M secondary driver of NAV, representing approximately 27% of NAV and
Dividend/Div Yield $1.40 / 4.7% approximately 26% of operating earnings (2010 YTD).
Fiscal Year Ends December
Book Value NM „ PWF currently offers an attractive dividend yield of 4.7%. However, we
2011 ROE (E) 14.3% expect no dividend growth through 2011 due to elevated payout ratios at
LT Debt $250.0M
Great-West and IGM. In our view, PWF is fully priced given a discount to
Preferred $2,305.00M
NAV of 6.9% versus a five-year trailing average discount of 8.6%.
Common Equity $11,069.0M
Convertible Available No
„ We expect limited NAV growth ahead based on CIBC price targets for GWO
Earnings Per Share Current ($27.00) and IGM ($40.75). Our 2011 NAV estimate is $33.85 implying a
2009 $2.05A 10.6% increase from the current estimated NAV of $30.60. We rate PWF
2010 $2.27E Sector Performer with a $31.00 price target.
2011 $2.65E
P/E
2009 14.5x
2010 13.1x Stock Price Performance
2011 11.2x

Dividends Per Share

2009 $1.40
2010 $1.40
2011 $1.40

Payout Ratio
2009 68%
2010 62%
2011 53% Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Power Financial is a holding company with major
interests in Great-West Life, IGM Financial and Pargesa. CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
PWF is 66.3% owned by Power Corp. (POW). its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.powerfinancial.com/ Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Paul Holden, CFA Kevin Cheng, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-8417 1 (416) 956-6676
Paul.Holden@cibc.ca Kevin.Cheng@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Strong Franchises, But Limited Growth At Present - September 17, 2010

Power Financial Corp. (PWF - TSX) Sector Performer


Current Price : C$29.76 Paul Holden, CFA (416-594-8417) Paul.holden@cibc.ca
12- To 18- Month Price Target: C$31.00 Kevin Cheng, CFA (416-956-6676) Kevin.cheng@cibc.ca
All figures in millions except per share data
Valuations (Averages) 10-yr 5-yr 1-yr Current Company Profile
Power Financial is a holding company that focuses on the financial services industry.
Discount To NAV -9.3% -8.6% -8.3% -6.2% Through majority ownership positions and strong board representation the company has
Forward P/E 13.1x 13.5x 13.7x 13.1x a very significant role in the management of its subsidiaries. Its main investments are
Dividend Yield 3.2% 3.8% 4.8% 4.8% Great-west Lifeco (68.4% ), IGM Financial (56.5% ) and Pargesa Holding S.A.
(27.1% ). Power Corporation owns 66.3% of Power Financial.

Power Financial 2008 2009 2010E 2011E Investment Thesis


Financials The performance of GWO is key to NAV growth for PWF. However, our outlook on
Operating EPS 2.69 2.05 2.27 2.65 GWO remains muted, thus limiting upside potential for NAV growth.
BVPS 16.80 16.27 17.26 19.76 In our view, Power Financial is fully priced given a discount to NAV of 6.2%
Dividends Per Share 1.33 1.40 1.40 1.40 compared to a 5-year trailing average of 8.6% and a 10-year trailing average of 9.3% .
Metrics Power Financial's investments in IGM Financial and Pargesa are not expected to be
Operating EPS Growth -5% -24% 11% 17% material contributors to NAV growth in the near-term.
BVPS Growth 3% -3% 6% 15% Summary NAV
Dividend Growth 15% 5% 0% 0%
Net Asset Value
Operating ROE 15% 12% 14% 14%
Estimated Net Asset Value ($mlns) Per Share % of Total
Dividend Payout Ratio 50% 68% 62% 53%
Great-West Lifeco 16,526 23.37 73.7%
Great-West Lifeco 2008 2009 2010E 2011E IGM Financial 6,079 8.60 27.1%
Financials Pargesa Holding S.A. 1,599 2.26 7.1%
Operating EPS 2.30 1.72 1.94 2.23 Total Subsidiaries 24,204 34.23 107.9%

BVPS 12.61 12.17 12.70 13.54 Other Assets


Dividends Per Share 1.20 1.23 1.23 1.23 Cash & Cash Equivalents 1,085 1.53 4.8%
Metrics Other Assets 89 0.13 0.4%
Operating EPS Growth -5% -25% 13% 15% Total Other Assets 1,174 1.66 5.2%
BVPS Growth 15% -3% 4% 7% Total Gross Asset Value 25,378 35.89 113.1%
Operating ROE 20% 14% 17% 18%
Liabilities
IGM Financial 2008 2009 2010E 2011E Other Liabilities (393) (0.56) -1.8%
Financials Debentures and Other Borrowings (250) (0.35) -1.1%
Total AUM ($ mlns) 101,742 120,545 119,263 131,155 Preferred Shares of the Corporation (300) (0.42) -1.3%
Operating EPS 2.89 2.35 2.65 2.85 Perpetual Preferred Shares (2,005) (2.84) -8.9%
BVPS 15.67 16.74 16.57 17.38 Estimated NAV 22,430 31.72 100.0%
Dividends Per Share 2.00 2.05 2.05 2.05
Metrics PWF Share Price 29.76
AUM Growth -17% 18% -1% 10% Discount to NAV -6.2%
Operating EPS Growth -10% -19% 13% 8%
5-Yr Average Discount -8.6%
BVPS Growth 1% 7% -1% 5%
10-Yr Average Discount -9.3%
Operating ROE 19% 15% 16% 17%

Chart 1: Forward P/E Chart 2: Historical Discount To NAV

16 5%
+1 std.
14 0%
Av erage +1 std.
12 -5%
Av erage
10 -10%

8 -1 std. -15% -1 std.

6 -20%

4 -25%
Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

83
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Canadian Media

Quebecor Inc.
Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Launches Wireless For Next Leg Of Growth
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $41.00
QBR.B-TSX (9/13/10) $35.79 „ Quebecor is one of Canada's leading diversified media companies, with
Key Indices: Toronto interests in cable and telecommunication operations (Videotron), newspaper
publishing (Sun Media) and French-language private broadcasting (TVA).
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) NM
52-week Range $21.61-$37.90
Shares Outstanding 64.9M „ Quebecor continues to be driven by strength at Videotron, as net adds track
Float 46.7M Shrs solidly across the board (digital, Internet and telephony). Sun Media results
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 98,059 are starting to improve as a result of aggressive cost-cutting, which is
Market Capitalization $2,322.8M expected to continue. The big focus in the story remains Videotron.
Dividend/Div Yield $0.20 / 0.6%
Fiscal Year Ends December „ As growth in the core cable business starts to slow, Videotron will rely on its
Book Value $20.28 per Shr recently launched wireless service. We believe that wireless has a high
2010 ROE (E) 25.8% potential for success, due largely to aggressive plans, a powerful cable
Net Debt $3,940.4M
bundling platform and French content, offered exclusively to customers.
Preferred Nil
Common Equity $1,316.3M
Convertible Available No „ Quebecor continues to have reasonably solid results despite slowing growth
across the industry. From a growth perspective, Videotron remains among
Earnings Per Share Current the best-performing cable operators in North America. With that, coupled
2009 $3.68A with a strong wireless offering, we rate Quebecor SO.
2010 $3.70E
2011 $3.58E
P/E
2009 9.7x
2010 9.7x Stock Price Performance
2011 10.0x

EBITDA ($ mlns.)
2009A $1,276.6
2010E $1,306.9
2011E $1,288.5

EV/EBITDA
2009A 5.9x
2010E 5.8x
2011E 5.9x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Quebecor Inc. is majority owner of Quebecor Media,
which operates cable TV (Videotron), newspaper CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
publishing (Sun Media), Internet (Netgraphe, nurun), its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
and broadcasting (TVA) operations in Canada. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.quebecor.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Robert Bek, CFA Michael Lee, CFA investment decision.
1 (416) 594-7454 1 (416) 594-7907 See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
Bob.Bek@cibc.ca Michaelc.Lee@cibc.ca
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Tony Rizzi
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-7299
Tony.Rizzi@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Launches Wireless For Next Leg Of Growth - September 17, 2010

Quebecor Inc. (QBR.B - TSX) Sector Outperformer


Current Price : C$35.79 Robert Bek, CFA (416-594-7454) Bob.Bek@cibc.ca
12- To 18- Month Price Target: C$41.00 Michael Lee, CFA (416-594-7907) Michaelc.Lee@cibc.ca
Tony Rizzi (416-594-7299) Tony Rizzi@cibc.ca
All figures in millions except per share data
EV / EBITDA Multiples 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Company Profile

Quebecor Inc. - 5.9x 5.8x 5.9x Quebecor Inc. is a holding company with a 54.7% interest in Quebecor Media Inc., a
Cdn Cable Peers - 7.2x 6.6x 6.3x diverse media company which primary assets include Videotron (cable company),
U.S. Cable Peers - 6.6x 6.4x 6.1x Sun Media (newspaper publisher), and TVA Group (TV broadcaster).

P/E Multiples 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Investment Thesis

Quebecor Inc. - 9.7x 9.7x 10.0x Since introducing cable telephony in 2005, Videotron has been among the top
Cdn Cable Peers - 16.8x 15.2x 13.7x performing cablecos in North America, exhibiting solid financial and operational
gains. Due to its strong bundling platform, we believe Videotron is poised for further
U.S. Cable Peers - 19.8x 17.7x 11.9x
growth.

Key Financial Metrics 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E We have a positive bias towards Quebecor's wireless recent wireless launch in
Q3/2010. The company offers both low end wireless and family share offerings, both
a natural extension to its highly sucessful bundling strategy.
Free Cash Flow Yield 12.6% 17.9% 8.9% 9.0%
Payout Ratio 16.9% 12.9% 25.9% 25.6% With Quebecor World out of the picture, we believe the strength of the remaining
Consolidated Capex Intensity 14.5% 16.0% 17.6% 16.0% assets should come to the forefront. Even after the recent recovery, valuation
Net Debt / EBITDA 3.8x 3.1x 3.0x 2.9x remains cheap and we are bullish on the LT prospects for Videotron, which is key to
the story.
Tax Rate NM 22.2% 27.1% 27.0%

Income Statement 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Chart 1: Revenues & EBITDA By Segment (2010E)

100%
Revenue 3,730.1 3,781.0 4,001.4 4,247.0 9.7% 5.4%
10.8% 16.2% 2.4%
OpEx 2,609.1 2,504.4 2,694.5 2,958.5
75%
EBITDA 1,121.0 1,276.6 1,306.9 1,288.5 25.7%
Depreciation & Amortization 320.0 344.7 367.5 380.0 50%
EBIT 801.0 932.0 939.4 908.5 76.0%
Interest Expense 299.1 259.0 281.3 277.4 25% 53.8%
EBT (206.1) 689.5 633.1 631.2
Tax Expense (Recovery) 139.9 153.2 171.5 170.4 0%
Revenues EBITDA
Net Income 187.3 276.1 228.0 232.6 Cable Newspapers Broadcasting Other
Adj. FD EPS 3.18 3.68 3.70 3.58

Free Cash Flow 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Key Operating Statistics (Last Reported Qtr., in '000 )

Q2/09 Q2/10 y/y Growth


EBITDA 1,121.0 1,276.6 1,306.9 1,288.5
Basic Cable
Less: Total Subscribers 1,733.0 1,781.5 2.8%
Capex 541.3 606.2 704.4 681.5 Net Additions 4.0 -4.5 -212.5%
Cash Taxes 12.7 29.7 130.6 137.1 Internet
Cash Interest 299.1 259.0 281.3 277.4 Total Subscribers 1,110.0 1,201.7 8.3%
Net Additions 21.0 9.7 -53.8%
Cable Telephony
Operating Free Cash Flow (FCF) 267.9 381.7 190.6 192.5
Total Subscribers 935.0 1,065.3 13.9%
Operating FCF Per Share 4.16 5.90 2.94 2.99 Net Additions 44.0 22.3 -49.3%
Wireless
Total Subscribers 73.0 87.0 19.2%
Net Additions 5.0 2.0 -60.0%

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

85
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Telecommunications & Cable Services

Rogers Communications Inc.


Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Rogers Continues To Be Well Positioned With
Sector Weighting:
Strong Exposure To Wireless
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $41.00
RCI.B-TSX (9/13/10) $37.56 „ Rogers is one of Canada's largest telecommunications and media
Key Indices: S&P/TSX 60 companies. Its cable TV operations (2.3 million subscribers) and wireless
operations (8.6 million subscribers) are the largest in Canada, while its
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) 17.2% media business continues to grow in size and scope.
52-week Range $27.40-$38.20
Shares Outstanding 581.0M
Float 484.5M Shrs „ Over the past year, investors have faced a myriad of issues, mostly on the
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 1,101,546 wireless side of the business, including the continuing voice ARPU
Market Capitalization $21,822.4M pressures, the sustainability of data growth and concerns over new wireless
Dividend/Div Yield $1.28 / 3.4% entrants. Despite these concerns, Rogers' shares have rallied.
Fiscal Year Ends December
Book Value $7.31 per Shr „ Rogers' financial results have been solid in recent quarters, and we continue
2010 ROE (E) 39.2% to believe in the LT value of wireless. The adoption of smartphones and
Net Debt $9,381.0M
take-up of associated applications add to the value proposition of wireless.
Preferred Nil
This strategic value is not fully reflected in the share price today.
Common Equity $4,246.0M
Convertible Available Yes
„ With current concerns over the economy and wireless risks overblown,
Earnings Per Share Current Rogers' shares are trading at a material discount to our NAV, providing an
2009 $2.48A attractive entry point for investors looking to benefit from Rogers' strong
2010 $2.95E growth potential for both wireless and cable assets.
2011 $3.19E
P/E
2009 15.1x
2010 12.7x Stock Price Performance
2011 11.8x

EBITDA ($ mlns.)
2009A $4,415.0
2010E $4,707.0
2011E $4,988.6

EV/EBITDA
2009A 7.1x
2010E 6.6x
2011E 6.3x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Rogers Communications Inc. owns the largest wireless
operator and cable operator in Canada. The company CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
also has an extensive portfolio of media assets, and its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
owns the Toronto Blue Jays of MLB. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.rogers.ca Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Robert Bek, CFA Michael Lee, CFA investment decision.
1 (416) 594-7454 1 (416) 594-7907 See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
Bob.Bek@cibc.ca Michaelc.Lee@cibc.ca
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Tony Rizzi
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-7299
Tony.Rizzi@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Rogers Continues To Be Well Positioned With Strong Exposure To Wireless - September 17, 2010

Rogers Communications Inc. (RCI.B - TSX) Sector Outperformer


Current Price : C$37.56 Robert Bek, CFA (416-594-7454) Bob.Bek@cibc.ca
12- To 18- Month Price Target: C$41.00 Michael Lee, CFA (416-594-7907) Michaelc.Lee@cibc.ca
Tony Rizzi (416-594-7299) Tony Rizzi@cibc.ca
All figures in millions except per share data
EV / EBITDA Multiples 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Company Profile

Rogers Communications - 7.1x 6.6x 6.3x Rogers is a diversified Canadian communications company, engaged in wireless
Shaw Communications - 8.9x 7.8x 7.4x voice and data services, as well as a provider of cable television services, internet
Comcast - 5.8x 5.4x 5.3x broadband and telephony products. Rogers also has a broad portfolio of media
assets (radio, TV and publishing) and owns the Toronto Blue Jays MLB franchise.
Time Warner Cable - 6.3x 5.9x 5.7x

P / E Multiples 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Investment Thesis

Rogers Communications - 15.1x 12.7x 11.8x While there remains concern over the effects of industry pricing pressure on wireless
Shaw Communications - 18.1x 17.6x 15.4x ARPU, we believe the prospects of attracting higher value subs will continue to drive
strong data adoption capable of moderating the effect of voice erosion, leading to
Comcast - 14.6x 14.7x 12.8x
improving ARPU trends in future quarters.
Time Warner Cable - 16.6x 16.3x 13.4x
Given the heightened focus on cost efficiencies and margin expansion, we expect
Key Financial Metrics 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E both free cash flow and dividends to grow at a healthy clip, and with the
implementation of a sizeable share buyback program, we believe Rogers will
continue to deliver strong value to its shareholders.
Free Cash Flow Yield 6.8% 8.5% 9.1% 10.5%
Payout Ratio 38.3% 38.9% 38.1% 35.6% With current concerns over competition and AWS entrant risks overblown, RCI
shares are trading at a material discount to our NAV, providing an attractive entry
Consolidated Capex Intensity 17.8% 15.8% 14.7% 13.8%
point for investors looking to benefit from RCI's strong growth potential for both
Net Debt / EBITDA 2.1x 2.1x 2.0x 1.7x
wireless and cable assets.
Tax Rate 29.7% 25.4% 28.2% 30.0%

Income Statement 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Chart 1: Revenues & EBITDA By Segment (2010E)
100%
11.9% 3.8%
Revenue 11,335.0 11,731.0 12,325.7 12,874.0
OpEx 9,035.0 9,046.0 9,292.8 9,635.4 28.7%
75% 32.3%
EBITDA 4,060.0 4,415.0 4,707.0 4,988.6
Depreciation & Amortization 1,760.0 1,730.0 1,674.0 1,750.0 50%
EBIT 2,300.0 2,685.0 3,033.0 3,238.6
67.6%
Interest Expense 575.0 647.0 676.3 670.7 25% 55.8%
EBT 1,426.0 1,980.0 2,331.7 2,567.9
Tax Expense (Recovery) 424.0 502.0 656.7 770.4 0%
Revenues EBITDA
Net Income 1,002.0 1,478.0 1,674.9 1,797.5
Wireless Cable Media
Adj. FD EPS 1.98 2.48 2.95 3.19

Free Cash Flow 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Key Operating Statistics (Last Reported Qtr.)
Q2/09 Q2/10 y/y Growth
EBITDA 4,060.0 4,415.0 4,707.0 4,988.6 Wireless ('000):
Less: Total Subs 8,156.0 8,626.0 5.8%
Capex 2,021.0 1,855.0 1,807.0 1,775.6 Postpaid Net Adds 148.0 98.0 -33.8%
Postpaid ARPU $73.24 $73.54 0.4%
Cash Taxes 3.0 104.0 282.9 311.2
Postpaid Churn 1.00% 1.06%
Cash Interest 575.0 647.0 676.3 670.7 Data % of Network Revenues 20.5% 26.7%
Cable ('000):
Operating Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1,461.0 1,809.0 1,940.8 2,231.1 Basic Subs 2,292.0 2,296.0 0.2%
Operating FCF Per Share 2.29 2.91 3.36 3.86 Digital Subs 1,593.0 1,701.0 6.8%
Internet Subs 1,578.0 1,634.0 3.5%
Telephony Subs 878.0 975.0 11.0%
Total RGUs 6,506.0 6,703.0 3.0%

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

87
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Merchandising

RONA Inc.
Stock Rating:
Sector Performer
Soft Housing Market Limits Upside
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $15.00
RON-TSX (9/13/10) $12.78 „ RONA is Canada's largest home improvement warehouse, with a network of
Key Indices: S&P/TSX 60 almost 700 stores in a variety of formats, sizes and markets. It has
generated over $6.0 billion in retail sales over the last year, though
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) NM continues to be challenged by a cautious consumer and slow housing sector.
52-week Range $12.65-$17.73
Shares Outstanding 131.8M
Float 131.8M Shrs „ We remain cautious on the outlook for the home improvement sector, and
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 375,900 in turn, RONA. With construction activity slowing, housing prices showing
Market Capitalization $1,684.4M weakness, and consumer confidence declining, the trends for big-ticket
Dividend/Div Yield Nil / Nil spending are clearly negative for the near term.
Fiscal Year Ends December
Book Value $14.28 per Shr „ The HIW segment remains highly competitive despite the slowing housing
2010 ROE (E) 8.9% market. Lowe's plans to nearly double its store base this year, while Home
Net Debt $320.6M
Depot has become more promotional on big-ticket items. RONA is well
Preferred Nil
situated as the destination for independents looking for increased stability.
Common Equity $1,882.4M
Convertible Available No
„ Within the context of a weak macro environment, and in the midst of a
Earnings Per Share Current three-year run of challenged sales results, we believe that RONA needs to
2009 $1.18A deliver a period of steady and sustained SSS growth in order to improve its
2010 $1.27E multiple. Until that time, we believe upside in the valuation is limited.
2011 $1.39E
P/E
2009 10.8x
2010 10.1x Stock Price Performance
2011 9.2x
FD EPS excluding unusual items.

Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
RONA Inc. is a leading retailer and distributor of home
improvement and gardening products in Canada, CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
generating more than $6 billion of retail sales over the its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
last 12 months. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.rona.ca Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Mark Petrie, CFA Perry Caicco
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-3278 1 (416) 594-7279
Mark.Petrie@cibc.ca Perry.Caicco@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Soft Housing Market Limits Upside - September 17, 2010

RONA Inc. (RON-TSX) Sector Performer


Current Price: C$12.78 Mark Petrie, CFA (416-956-3278) Mark.Petrie@cibc.ca
12- To 18-Month Price Ta C$15.00 Perry Caicco (416-594-7279) Perry.Caicco@cibc.ca
All figures in millions except per share data
Comparable Analysis Key Ratios Investment Thesis
RONA is Canada’s largest HIW, operating a variety of formats
LY TY NY 2009 2010e 2011e and banners nationally.
P/E ratio ROE 9.0% 8.9% 9.0% It spent 08/09 repairing its infrastructure and systems to improve asset
RONA 10.8x 10.1x 9.2x ROA 5.3% 5.7% 5.9% productivity. As a result, EBITDA margins held in even as sales suffered.
Home Depot 16.5x 15.7x 13.6x After-Tax ROIC 7.9% 8.4% 8.7% After a strong rebound in sales trends in Q1, growth in Q2 was well below
Lowe's 16.6x 15.4x 13.1x Current Ratio 2.8x 3.1x 3.3x expectations. Consumers pulled back ahead of the slowdown in the
EV/EBITDA Net Debt/EBITDA 0.6x 0.3x 0.0x housing market, and we expect the trend to remain weak.
RONA 5.8x 5.4x 5.0x Net Debt/Capital 10.4% 5.2% 0.7% Store renovations & expansions as well as small acquisitions will continue.
Home Depot 8.7x 7.9x 7.3x BV/Share $13.73 $15.01 $16.42 We remain cautious in our outlook as the prospect of more moderate
Lowe's 7.0x 6.5x 6.0x FCF $165.6 $100.2 $90.4 increases (or declines) in house prices temper renovation activity.

New Store Development Market Information Management


2009 2010e 2011e Shares Outstanding 131.8 Robert Dutton President and CEO
Total Corporate Stores 685 690 696 Float 131.8 Claude Guevin EVP and CFO
Total Delear Stores 422 436 452 Market Capitalization $ 1,685.7 Claude Bernier EVP, Marketing
Corp. Square ft. (mlns) 16.3 16.8 17.3 Net Debt $ 301.3 Pierre Dandoy EVP, Store Operations
Y/Y Sq ft. Growth 3.2% 3.1% 3.0% Enterprise Value $ 1,987.0 Normand Dumont EVP, Merchandising

Performance Summary Valuation

Annual Review Q2/2010 Review 2009 2010e 2011e


2009 2010e 2011e Actual Estimate Q2/2009 EPS $ 1.18 $ 1.27 $ 1.39
Same-Store Sales Growth -18.1% 7.1% 10.0%
Reported -4.2% 2.7% 1.2% 0.4% 6.0% -4.7% Target P/E Multiple 11.0x 11.0x 11.0x
Normalized -4.7% 3.2% 1.2% 0.9% 6.5% -6.2% Equity Value Per Share $ 12.99 $ 13.92 $ 15.31

Total Segment Sales 5,860.4 6,136.6 6,323.9 1,778.5 1,869.1 1,733.8 SSS Growth

15%
Corp & Fran Stores 3,540.2 3,704.7 3,821.7 1,067.6 1,113.7 1,040.1
10%
Distribution 1,139.1 1,183.4 1,218.2 330.6 365.2 329.8
Net Sales 4,679.3 4,888.1 5,039.9 1,398.2 1,478.9 1,369.9 5%
0%
Gross Profit 1,391.6 1,464.1 1,515.6 423.1 441.6 408.4 -5%
% of Sales 29.74% 29.95% 30.07% 30.26% 29.86% 29.81% -10%
SG&A 906.7 944.2 963.9 252.0 253.7 241.7
Q 07

Q 07

Q 07

Q 07

Q 08

Q 08

Q 08

Q 08

Q 09

Q 09

Q 09

Q 09

Q 10
10
20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20
% of Sales 19.38% 19.32% 19.12% 18.02% 17.15% 17.64%
1/

2/

3/

4/

1/

2/

3/

4/

1/

2/

3/

4/

1/

2/
Q

Rent 139.4 144.1 147.0 36.6 37.4 35.6

EBITDA 345.5 375.8 404.6 134.5 150.5 131.1 Change in EBITDA% (Y/Y)
% of Sales 7.38% 7.69% 8.03% 9.62% 10.18% 9.57%
1.50%
1.00%
D&A 103.2 107.9 110.9 29.2 26.7 26.6 0.50%
Interest Expense 23.5 22.4 23.3 5.4 5.8 5.7 0.00%
Tax Expense 66.6 72.9 81.1 29.3 35.4 30.0 -0.50%
-1.00%
Minority Interest 5.3 6.7 6.7 2.8 2.2 2.2
-1.50%
Net Earnings 146.9 165.9 182.5 67.8 80.4 66.5 -2.00%
Q 07

Q 07

Q 07

Q 07

Q 08

Q 08

Q 08

Q 08

Q 09

Q 09

Q 09

Q 09

Q 10
10

EPS, Diluted $1.18 $1.27 $1.39 $0.53 $0.61 $0.55


20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20
1/

2/

3/

4/

1/

2/

3/

4/

1/

2/

3/

4/

1/

2/
Q

# of Shares O/S, Diluted 124.4 131.1 131.2 131.2 131.0 120.4


Source: Company reports, Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc.

89
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Banks

Royal Bank Of Canada


Stock Rating:
Sector Performer
Volatile Trading Revenue Has Been A Dominant
Sector Weighting:
Theme
Overweight
12-18 mo. Price Target $56.00
RY-TSX (9/13/10) $54.60 „ RY is the largest Cdn. bank by market cap, with total assets of $704 billion
Key Indices: TSXFinSv as at Q3/F10. Over the past four quarters, RY derived 52% of its earnings
from Cdn. Banking, 32% from Capital Markets, 8% from Insurance, 12%
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) 7.0% from Wealth Management, and negative 4% from International Banking.
52-week Range $48.85-$62.89
Shares Outstanding 1,423.7M
Float 1,423.7M Shrs „ As the firm with the largest European trading desk, disruption in that
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 3,535,000 market was felt most acutely by this bank, with revenues plunging 80% q/q
Market Capitalization $77,736.4M in Q3/F10. Though we expect significant q/q improvement from that
Dividend/Div Yield $2.00 / 3.7% depressed level, we materially lowered our assumed run rate for that line.
Fiscal Year Ends October
Book Value $23.67 per Shr „ Until volatility in the trading line settles down, it will remain a valuation
2010 ROE (E) 17.6% issue, regardless of the performance of the rest of the bank (where
LT Debt $6,661.0M
performance has been fine). The forecast rebound in trading revenue leads
Preferred $4,811.00M
to the highest EPS growth rate of the Big Six banks in F2011.
Common Equity $33,702.0M
Convertible Available No
„ RY currently trades at a premium valuation to its peers. The current
Cash EPS Current premium on the forward P/E multiple is 9%, slightly above the 10-year
2009 $4.40A average premium of 8%. The current P/B premium of 11% is below the 10-
2010 $3.81E year average of 19%. We rate RY Sector Performer.
2011 $4.40E
P/E
2009 12.4x
2010 14.3x Stock Price Performance
2011 12.4x
Cash EPS excluding one-time items.

Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Royal Bank of Canada, Canada's largest financial
institution, provides diversified financial services in North CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
America. its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.royalbank.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Robert Sedran, CFA Mehmed Rizvanovic, CFA investment decision.
1 (416) 594-7874 (416) 594-7283 See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
Robert.Sedran@cibc.ca Mike.Rizvanovic@cibc.ca
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Meny Grauman, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-3723
Meny.Grauman@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Volatile Trading Revenue Has Been A Dominant Theme - September 17, 2010

Royal Bank
All Figures in $ millions, except per share data (excl. one-time items)
KEY MULTI PLES F2009A F2010E F2011E OUR THESIS
P/E Multiple 12.4x 14.3x 12.4x While RY is well positioned to benefit from a recovering environment that would generate falling loan
Peer average 12.7x 11.5x losses and better revenue growth, the uncertain outlook combined with very high volatility in the trading
line tempers our enthusiasm in the near term. We believe that a more positive investment stance
Q3-10
requires greater confidence in the bank's earnings potential than is possible in what remains an
P/BVPS 2.3x
unsettled capital markets environment. We rate RY as a Sector Performer at this time.
Peer average 2.1x
OPERATING PERFORMANCE F2009A F2010E F2011E SEGMENTED EARNINGS CONTRIBUTION
Core cash EPS $4.40 $3.81 $4.40
125%
Annual EPS growth 2.1% (13.3%) 15.3% 7% 4%
4% 3%
Core cash ROE 20.6% 16.5% 17.6% 100% 16%
Efficiency ratio 47.4% 48.6% 46.4% 27% 28% 38% 14%
Operating leverage (YoY) 7.1% (6.6%) 3.5% 75% 12%
14% 12%
5% 8% 1% 9%
CREDIT METRICS F2009A F2010E F2011E 50% 7% 8%
(1) 60%
Loan loss rate 0.95% 0.62% 0.46% 25% 43% 48% 42%
F2009A Q3-10
0%
Gross impaired loans 5,457 5,020 -5% -6%
Specific ACLs 1,279 1,194 -25%
Total ACLs 3,302 3,179 F2007A F2008A F2009A Q3-10
(2)
Classical Coverage ratio 61% 63%
Specific ACLs to GILs 23% 24% Canadian Banking Insurance International Banking
General ACLs as % of Gross Loans & BAs 0.69% 0.66% Wealth Management Capital Markets Corporate Support

KEY EARNI NGS DRIVERS F2009A F2010E F2011E FORWARD P/E MULTIPLE RELATIVE TO PEER GROUP (based on consensus estimates)
Core net interest income 9,253 9,501 9,843
130%
% change 10.6% 2.7% 3.6% 10-y ear Av erage Relativ e Fw d P/E: 108% Current Relativ e Fw d P/E: 109%
(3)
Total capital markets related revenue 8,794 5,374 5,391 120%
% change 56.8% (38.9%) 0.3%
Provision for credit losses 2,785 1,827 1,405
110%
% change 92% (34%) (23%)
Non-interest expenses 14,906 13,983 14,060
100%
% change 11.0% (6.2%) 0.6%
CAPI TAL MEASURES F2009A F2010E F2011E 90%
Tier 1 capital ratio 13.0% 13.0% 13.4%
Sep-00

Sep-02

Sep-03

Sep-04

Sep-05

Sep-07

Sep-08

Sep-09

Sep-10
Sep-01

Sep-06
Tangible common equity to RWA 8.9% 9.2% 10.1%
Tangible common equity to tangible assets 3.4% 3.5% 3.8% Current Relativ e P/E 6-month Mov ing Av erage
Risk Weighted Assets 244,837 261,354 271,966 Plus 1 Standard Dev iation Minus 1 standard Dev iation

LOAN BOOK F2009A F2010E F2011E P/BVPS MULTIPLE RELATIVE TO PEER GROUP
Residential mortgages 122,130 129,358 134,610 160%
Personal 74,393 81,985 85,314 1 0-y ear A v er age Rela tiv e P/B = 11 9% Cu rren t Rel ativ e P/B = 1 11%
150%
Credit cards 8,701 9,134 9,505
Wholesale 78,927 74,430 77,452 140%

Gross Loans 284,151 294,907 306,881 130%


Acceptances 9,024 7,778 8,094 120%
Total Gross Loans & Acceptances 293,175 302,685 314,975
110%

100%
N otes :
90%
(1) PC Ls as a % of av erage net loans and acceptances (ex cl. repos ).
Sep-01

Sep-03

Sep-05

Sep-10
Sep-00

Sep-02

Sep-04

Sep-06

Sep-07

Sep-08

Sep-09

(2) Total ACLs as a % of GILs.


(3) Ex cludes gains /(losses ) on inv estm ent sec urities.

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

91
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Steel

Russel Metals Inc.


Stock Rating:
Sector Underperformer
Company Profile
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $18.00
RUS-TSX (9/13/10) $20.51 „ Russel Metals is one of the largest metals distribution and processing
Key Indices: Toronto companies in North America with sales of $1.97 billion in 2009. The
company operates in three main business lines: Metals Service Centres,
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) NM Energy Tubular Products and Steel Distributors.
52-week Range $15.30-$22.25
Shares Outstanding 59.7M
Float 59.7M Shrs „ We expect earnings to decline in H2/10 due to lower steel prices and a
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 197,586 seasonal decline in demand at the metals service centres, offset by seasonal
Market Capitalization $1,224.4M strength at the energy tubular products segment. Steel prices may have
Dividend/Div Yield $1.00 / 4.9% reached a bottom along with recent pricing in China.
Fiscal Year Ends December
Book Value $13.39 per Shr „ We continue to believe that overall pricing power for the steel producers
2010 ROE (E) 7.8% (and the service centres) may be limited until 2011 at the earliest. U.S.
Net Debt $64.8M
capacity utilization has declined since mid-June to 70.6% as of the
Preferred Nil
beginning of September.
Common Equity $800.8M
Convertible Available No
„ Accretive acquisition activity could positively impact our 2011 outlook as
FD EPS Current management suggested the possibility of acquiring certain privately owned
2009 ($0.94A) service centres that may be looking to close a transaction before U.S.
2010 $1.10E capital gains tax rates are increased in 2011.
2011 $1.26E
P/E
2009 NM
2010 18.6x Stock Price Performance
2011 16.3x

EV/EBITDA
2009A NMF
2010E 8.9x
2011E 8.0x

Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Russel Metals is one of the largest metals distribution
and processing companies in North America, conducting CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
business in three segments: service centers, energy its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
sector pipe and import/export. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.russelmetals.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Michael Willemse, CFA David Galison
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-7285 1 (416) 956-3548
Michael.Willemse@cibc.ca David.Galison@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Company Profile - September 17, 2010

Russel Metals (RUS-TSX) Sector Underperformer


Current Price: $20.51 Michael Willemse, CFA 416-594-7285 michael.willemse@cibc.ca

12- To 18-Month Price Target: $18 David Galison, MBA 416-956-3548 david.galison@cibc.ca

All Figures in CAD$ millions, except per share data


2010E 2011E
Key Multiples 2010E P/E EBITDA 2011E P/E EBITDA Investment Thesis
Russel Metals 18.6x 8.9x 16.3x 8.0x Russel Metals is one of the largest metals distribution and processing
NA Service Centre Peers 17.8x 8.9x 12.7x 6.6x companies in North America. The company primarily distributes steel products in
three principal business segments: metals service centers; energy tubular
Historical Price To Forward Earnings 10.2x
products and steel distributors.
Historical EV/TTM EBITDA 6.2x
Operating Performance 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E We expect sales and earnings to decline in 2H/10 due to seasonal weakness
and a declining steel price environment. However, steel prices have likely
Return on Equity 24.6% nmf 7.8% 9.3%
bottomed at current levels as prices in China have recently rebounded and North
Gross Margin 23.4% 16.4% 19.5% 19.5% American scrap prices have rebounded to approximately $304/ton from $279/ton
EBITDA Margin 11.4% -3.5% 7.1% 7.1% in July. Accretive acquisitions in 2H/10 could positively impact our outlook.

EBIT Margin 10.7% -4.8% 5.8% 6.0%


Net Margin 6.8% -4.7% 3.3% 3.3% Steel Industry Stastics
Quality of Earnings 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E US Capacity Utilization: 70.6%

P/FCF 37.8x 4.5x 28.9x 17.6x 23-Aug-10


FCF Yield 2.6% 22.0% 3.5% 5.7% HRC $581 USA m/m
Implied Tax Rate 33.7% 38.8% 29.6% 32.6% HRC $473 China 0.5%
Interest Coverage 0.0x nmf 5.8x 5.8x HRC $548 World Export 1.2%
Income Statement 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Scrap $311 #1 Hvy USA 2.7%

Sales $3,366.2 $1,971.8 $2,045.4 $2,262.2 All figures are per short ton
Gross Profit $787.1 $322.9 $399.4 $441.6 Metals Service Centre Data August m/m y/y
EBITDA $383.3 ($69.4) $144.8 $161.3 *US Finished Steel Inventory 7.47 3.5% 30.5%
EBIT $359.9 ($95.1) $119.4 $135.1 Months' Shipments on hand 2.61x 16.2% 14.0%
EBT $344.9 ($150.4) $95.7 $111.8 **Avg Daily Shipment Rate 136.5 -6.7% 20.0%
Net Income $228.8 ($92.0) $67.3 $75.4 *U.S. Service Centre Shipments 2.87 -10.9% 14.5%
FD EPS, (Ex. Unusuals) $3.69 ($0.94) $1.10 $1.26 *Million Tons ** Tons
FD S/O 62.7 59.9 59.8 59.9 Valuation & Outlook
Cash Flow 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Current Price: $20.51 Rating: SU
Operating cash flow $56.1 $291.1 $53.1 $90.0 Price Target: $18.00 Dividend: $1.00
Capex ($22.1) ($20.9) ($10.7) ($20.0) 12-18 Mo Return: -12.2% Div Yield: 4.9%
Changes in working capital ($201.5) $335.5 ($43.8) ($11.7) Price Target Represents: 2009A 2010E 2011E
Free Cash Flow2 $34.0 $270.2 # $42.4 $70.0 P/E: nmf 16.3x 14.3x
FCF per Share $0.54 $4.51 $0.71 $1.17 Enterprise Value: $1,072 $1,124 $1,116
Balance Sheet 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E EV/EBITDA: nmf 7.8x 6.9x
Cash $44.9 $359.6 $301.3 $311.6 EV/Sales: 0.5x 0.5x 0.5x
Total debt $283.8 $353.7 $348.6 $348.6 P/BV: 1.4x 1.3x 1.3x
Equity $980.1 $793.2 $803.1 $818.8 FCF Yield: 25.1% 3.9% 6.5%
Net debt (Cash) $238.9 ($5.9) $47.3 $37.0 Chart: Sales, EBITDA & EBITDA margin
Net debt/TCE 19.6% -0.7% 5.6% 4.3%
20%
Net debt/EBITDA 0.6x 0.1x 0.3x 0.2x
$2,700 15%
EBITDA MGN %

Book Value Per Unit (FD) $15.63 $13.24 $13.43 $13.66


10%
C$Mlns

Revenue per Segment (2010E) $1,700

Tubular 5%
$700
Products 0%
33%
Metals ($300) -5%
Steel
2003A
2004A
2005A
2006A
2007A
2008A
2009A
2010E
2011E

Service
Distributors
Centers
11%
Sales EBITDA EBITDA Margin

Source: Bloomberg, MSCI, Steelbenchmarker, AMM, Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

93
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Business & Professional Services

SNC-Lavalin Group Inc.


Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Company Profile
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $62.00
SNC-TSX (9/13/10) $50.29 „ SNC is a world-class engineering company, with a little over half of its
Key Indices: None revenues from Canada and the remainder from around the world. SNC is
also diversified by discipline, with expertise in mining & metallurgy, power,
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) 8.0% chemicals and petroleum, infrastructure and maintenance & operations.
52-week Range $41.59-$54.89
Shares Outstanding 150.9M
Float 151.0M Shrs „ The company competes based on engineering expertise, local relationships,
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 446,000 and its ability to participate in projects both as an investor as well as the
Market Capitalization $7,590.4M engineer. SNC's asset holdings (concessions) comprise a significant
Dividend/Div Yield $0.68 / 1.4% component (~30%) of its overall valuation.
Fiscal Year Ends December
Book Value $9.91 per Shr „ Commodity-related earnings have weakened from 2008, but they appear to
2010 ROE (E) 23.8% be turning a corner. Overall backlog has grown rapidly (up 15% Y/Y in Q2)
Net Cash $677.00M
given (infrastructure) project wins: Stoney Trail SE, Calgary West LRT, etc.
Preferred Nil
The MUHC contract, finalized post Q2, adds a further $1.6 bln. to backlog.
Common Equity $1,495.0M
Convertible Available No
„ We believe that H1/10 represented the inflection point for SNC, with
Earnings Per Share Current existing projects ramping down and new projects starting up. From here, we
2009 $2.36A expect momentum to improve, although we expect earnings growth to lag
2010 $2.48E backlog growth. We rate SNC Sector Outperformer with a $62 price target.
2011 $2.70E
P/E
2009 21.3x
2010 20.3x Stock Price Performance
2011 18.6x
2010 EPS exclude gain on sale of ECS.

Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. is Canada's largest engineering
and construction services company, and invests actively CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
in infrastructure concessions. its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.snc-lavalin.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Paul Lechem Stephanie Price, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-6429 1 (416) 594-7047
Paul.Lechem@cibc.ca Stephanie.Price@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Company Profile - September 17, 2010

SNC-Lavalin (SNC-TSX) Sector Outperformer


Current Price: $50.29 Paul Lechem (416-956-6429) Paul.Lechem@cibc.ca
12 to 18 month Price Target: $62.00 Stephanie Price, CFA (416-594-7047) Stephanie.Price@cibc.ca

All Figures in $ millions, except per share data


Key Statistics Investment Thesis
Share Price $50.29 Net Cash (Debt) 677.2 SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. is Canada's largest engineering and construction
Shares Outstanding 150.9 Enterprise Value 6913.2 services company, and invests actively in infrastructure concessions.
Market Capitalization 7590.4 The company is focused in Canada (~50% of revenues), but has significant
internatioanl operations, including North Africa & the Middle East (~25%).
SNC operates in a number of end markets, including: infrastructure (~30% of
Key Multiples F2009A F2010E F2011E
revenues), power (~15%), chemicals & petroleum (~15%), mining & metallurgy
P/E 21.3x 20.3x 18.6x (~12%) and operations and maintenance (~20%).
EV/EBITDA 9.4x 8.8x 8.4x Commodity businesses are weakening from peak levels, but infrastructure
Peers (Average) opportunities are growing in Canada and internationally.
P/E 12.1x 13.3x 11.6x
EV/EBITDA 9.8x 8.9x 8.3x

Profitability F2009A F2010E F2011E


Gross Margin 18.9% 19.8% 18.0%
Revenues
EBITDA Margin 12.1% 12.6% 11.6% 8 60%
Net Margin 5.9% 6.4% 5.8% 7 50%
40%

Y/Y Growth (%)


Cash Per Share $8.02 $9.36 $14.23 6
5 30%
Net Debt/EBITDA NA NA NA

$blns
20%
4
10%
3 0%
Income Statement F2009A F2010E F2011E 2 -10%
Sales 6101.7 6247.2 7134.7 1 -20%
Growth (y/y) -14.1% 2.4% 14.2% 0 -30%
Gross Profit 1151.1 1239.2 1284.3

F1 98

F2 01
F2 02

F2 04
F2 05

F 2 08
9
F1 97

F2 9
F2 00

F2 3

F2 6
F2 07

00
99

00

00
9
9

0
0

0
0

0
0

0
Operating Expenses 545.6 578.6 599.0
F1

EBITDA 735.6 790.0 825.2 Services Packages


Operations and Maintenance Concession Investments
Amortization 130.1 129.4 140.0
Interest, FX & Other (128.2) (152.8) (133.7)
EBT 477.3 507.8 551.5
Tax Expense (Recovery) 108.1 115.3 126.8
Net Income (Loss), Continuing Operations 359.4 377.1 411.9
Backlog
Adj. FD EPS, Continuing Operations $2.36 $2.48 $2.70 14
12
Backlog ($blns)

Free Cash Flow F2009A F2010E F2011E 10


Cash Flow From Operations 395.3 474.4 952.9 8
Capital Expenditures (306.5) (136.7) (50.0) 6
4
Free Cash Flow 88.8 337.7 902.9
2
Free Cash Flow Per Share $0.58 $2.22 $5.92
0
06

06

09

10
08

08

09

Balance Sheet F2009A F2010E F2011E


0

0
20

20
20

20

20

20

20
F2

F2
F

Cash 1218.2 1424.2 2169.1


1-

3-

1-

3-

1-

3-

1-

3-

1-
Q

Fixed Assets 2331.0 2453.5 2363.5 Services Packages


Goodwill 520.9 534.7 574.7 Operations and Maintenance Concession Investments

Total Assets 7206.3 7810.7 8626.2


Recourse debt 452.9 453.1 453.1
Non-recourse debt 2144.7 2511.7 2511.7
Shareholder's Equity 1434.7 1667.8 1961.6
Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

95
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Canadian Insurance

Sun Life Financial Inc.


Stock Rating:
Sector Performer
Macroeconomic & Market Environment Remain
Sector Weighting:
Challenging
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $32.00
SLF-TSX (9/13/10) $27.92 „ SLF is the third-largest life insurance company in Canada by market
Key Indices: Toronto, NYSE capitalization. The company is divided into five main business segments,
including MFS, a global asset manager. Its primary operations are in North
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) 8.0% America, but it has a sizeable presence in the U.K. and Asia.
52-week Range $23.58-$33.75
Shares Outstanding 569.2M
Float 569.2M Shrs „ While the Q2/10 results came in roughly in line with consensus, the
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 1,832,000 challenging market environment still weighed on earnings. That said, the
Market Capitalization $15,892.1M firm's net credit experience turned positive, which, considering the firm's
Dividend/Div Yield $1.44 / 5.2% track record this cycle, is an encouraging development.
Fiscal Year Ends December
Book Value $27.99 per Shr „ At the end of Q2/10, SLF's MCCSR ratio dropped down to 210% from the
2010 ROE (E) 11.0% previous quarter's 216%. Absent a significant deterioration in the operating
LT Debt $3,051.0M
environment, that ratio looks to be fine. That said, given the unsettled
Preferred $2,015.00M
markets, we would prefer a higher ratio at this time.
Common Equity $15,931.0M
Convertible Available No
„ Currently SLF is trading at a 1.0x P/B multiple, a 33% discount relative to
Earnings Per Share Current its peers, versus a historical discount of 31%. With poor earnings visibility
2009 $1.00A and a structural decline in profitability compared with pre-crisis levels, we
2010 $2.51E believe a discount to historical levels is appropriate.
2011 $2.95E
P/E
2009 27.9x
2010 11.1x Stock Price Performance
2011 9.5x

Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Sun Life Financial Inc. is a major Canadian-based
financial services company that manufactures and CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
distributes insurance and wealth management products its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
in Canada, the U.S. and Asia. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.sunlife.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Robert Sedran, CFA Mehmed Rizvanovic, CFA investment decision.
1 (416) 594-7874 (416) 594-7283 See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
Robert.Sedran@cibc.ca Mike.Rizvanovic@cibc.ca
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Meny Grauman, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-3723
Meny.Grauman@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Macroeconomic & Market Environment Remain Challenging - September 17, 2010

Sun Life Financial (SLF)


All Figures in C$ millions, except per share data

Key Multiples Years Ending Our Thesis


Q4-08 Q4-09 Q4-10E Q4-11E Adjusted earnings have been at the low end of management's guidance range over the
past several quarters even as the composition of those earnings has been
P/E Multiple 28.0x 11.1x 9.5x deteriorating. Moreover, capital remains a nagging concern for SLF given the
Peer Average (MFC, GWO, IAG) 15.5x 8.1x 9.8x company's below average MCCSR ratio and the fact that it carries above average
sensitivity to equtiy markets and interest rates. While there are company specific
Quarter Ending
catalysts that improve the medium-term outlook (such as the improved performance and
Q2-10
outlook in the U.S. business and at MFS). We maintain our neutral rating at this time.
Book Value Per Share $27.99
P/B Multiple 1.0x
Peer Average (MFC, GWO, IAG) 1.4x

Operating Performance Years Ending Segmented Earnings - For Years Ending


Q4-08 Q4-09 Q4-10E Q4-11E 80%
Core EPS - Fully Diluted ($) (0.09) 1.00 2.51 2.95
Annual EPS growth n/a 151.3% 17.6% 60% 153
Core ROE -0.3% 3.6% 9.0% 11.0% 929
40%
Payout Ratio 103.9% 151.8% 57.5% 48.9%
Book Value Per Share (BVPS) ($) 28.24 27.58 28.68 27.21 194 866
20%
Embedded Value Per Share ($) 31.16 31.31 n/a n/a 645
0%
Capital Years Ending Quarter Ending (465)
-20% (1,016)
Q4-08 Q4-09 Q2-10
(95)
Available Capital 10,613 10,663 $10,696 -40% Q4-08 Q4-09
Required Capital 4,582 4,831 $5,092
Canada U .S. MFS Asia Corporate
MCCSR Ratio 232% 221% 210%

Source of Earnings Years Ending Forward P/E Multiple* Relative To The Peer Group
Q4-08 Q4-09 Q4-10E Q4-11E
130%
Expected Profit - In-Force Business 1,828 2,009 1,897 2,031
9-y ear Av erage Relativ e P/E = 95% Current Relativ e P/E = 53%
Impact of New Business (321) (380) (341) (339) 120%
Experience Gains (Losses) (2,271) (630) (278) 80 110%
Changes in Assumptions (288) (1,164) 77 70 100%
Earnings on Surplus 402 260 391 406
90%
Other - - - -
Income before Taxes (650) 95 1,746 2,249 80%

Income Taxes 588 542 (217) (459) 70%


Net Income (62) 637 1,529 1,790 60%
Less: Preferred Share Dividends (95) (103) (103) (108)
50%
Income From CI Financial 942 - - -
Sep-01

Sep-02

Sep-03

Sep-04

Sep-05

Sep-06

Sep-07

Sep-08

Sep-09

Sep-10
Net I ncome to Common Shareholders 785 534 1,426 1,682

Assets Years Ending * Bas ed on c onsensus es timates


Q4-08 Q4-09 P/B Multiple Relative To The Peer Group
Bonds 59,074 61,307 90%
Mortgages 22,302 19,449 9-y ear Av erage R elativ e P/B = 69% Current Relativ e P/B = 67%
Stocks 4,458 4,966
Real Estate 4,908 4,877 80%
Cash & Short-Term Investments 8,879 11,868
Policy Loans & Other Invested Assets 7,257 5,762
70%
Total Invested Assets 106,878 108,229
Goodwill 6,598 6,419
Intangible Assets 878 926 60%

Total Other Assets 5,479 4,508


Total Assets 119,833 120,082 50%
Sep-01

Sep-04

Sep-05

Sep-08
Sep-02

Sep-03

Sep-06

Sep-07

Sep-09

Sep-10

Common Equity 15,808 15,566

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

97
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Diversified Financials

TMX Group Inc.


Stock Rating:
Not Rated
Company Profile
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target None
X-TSX (9/13/10) $29.83 „ TMX is an integrated exchange group that operates markets for multiple
Key Indices: Toronto asset classes including equities, fixed income, derivatives and energy.
During H1/10, TMX generated $282.4MM in revenue, up 3.1% Y/Y, while
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) NM H1/10 operating EPS were $1.30, up 7.3% Y/Y.
52-week Range $26.78-$36.14
Shares Outstanding 74.3M
Float 72.9M Shrs „ One of the company's key strategic objectives is the diversification of its
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 339,046 operations, including expansion in the derivatives and energy markets,
Market Capitalization $2,217.5M which now account for nearly 20% of net income. TMX set a record for new
Dividend/Div Yield $1.52 / 5.1% international issuers on its equity exchanges with 25 in H1/10.
Fiscal Year Ends December
Book Value $10.93 per Shr „ The emergence of Alpha, with an approximate 20% market share, has
2011 ROE (E) NA become a notable threat for TMX. TMX is investing in technology to improve
LT Debt $437.9M
its capabilities. It is increasing throughput, with the first expansion
Preferred Nil
completed in H1/10 and opened a new co-location facility in June.
Common Equity $812.7M
Convertible Available No
„ Consensus EPS estimates for 2010 and 2011 are $2.78 and $2.93, implying
Earnings Per Share Current earnings growth of 13.5% and 5.4%, respectively. Currently, TMX trades at
2007 $2.17A 10.2x consensus 2011E EPS, a discount compared to global exchanges at
2008 $2.47A 15.1x and U.S. exchanges at 13.1x.
2009 $2.45A
P/E
2007 13.6x
2008 10.2x Stock Price Performance
2009 12.1x

Cash Flow Per Share


2007 $0.80A
2008 $1.20A
2009 $3.72A
P/CF
2007 81.0x
2008 54.0x
2009 17.4x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
TMX Group Inc. provides trading markets and clearing
facilities across multiple asset classes: equities, fixed CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
income, derivatives, and energy. its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.tsx.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
CIBC World Markets Inc. See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-7000 end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Company Profile - September 17, 2010

This page left blank intentionally.

99
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Banks

Toronto-Dominion Bank
Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Strong Retail Franchises Well Positioned For Slower
Sector Weighting:
Growing Environment
Overweight
12-18 mo. Price Target $81.00
TD-TSX (9/13/10) $75.95 „ TD is the second-largest Canadian bank by market cap. with assets of $603
Key Indices: TSXFinSv billion as at Q3/F10. Over the last 12 months, TD derived 52% of its adjusted
earnings from Canadian P&C, 11% from Wealth Mgmt., 17% from U.S. P&C,
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) 10.0% and 20% from Wholesale (not including a $428 million loss from corporate).
52-week Range $61.17-$77.37
Shares Outstanding 874.1M
Float 874.1M Shrs „ Stronger credit quality was a noteworthy positive for TD in Q3/F10 as all
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 2,121,000 three segments saw improvements. We expect the pace of these
Market Capitalization $66,387.9M improvements to slow, but nevertheless anticipate that falling loan losses
Dividend/Div Yield $2.44 / 3.2% will be a positive in both Canada and the U.S. in F2011.
Fiscal Year Ends October
Book Value $43.41 per Shr „ With both Canadian and U.S. P&C banking posting double-digit q/q earnings
2010 ROE (E) 14.1% growth in Q3/F10, TD's retail franchise is performing well on both sides of
LT Debt $12,384.0M
the border, which positions it well relative to its peers in what is likely to
Preferred $3,395.00M
continue to be a slow growth environment.
Common Equity $37,941.0M
Convertible Available No
„ On a forward P/E basis, TD trades at a 3% premium relative to peers
Earnings Per Share Current compared with a 1% historical premium. On a P/B basis, TD currently
2009 $5.50A trades at a 20% discount to its peers, compared with its 10-year average
2010 $5.87E discount of only 4%. We rate TD Sector Outperformer.
2011 $6.41E
P/E
2009 13.8x
2010 12.9x Stock Price Performance
2011 11.8x
Cash EPS excluding one-time items.

Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
TD Bank is one of Canada's leading financial institutions,
and offers a full array of financial products and services CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
to over 18 million customers worldwide. its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.tdbank.ca Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Robert Sedran, CFA Mehmed Rizvanovic, CFA investment decision.
1 (416) 594-7874 (416) 594-7283 See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
Robert.Sedran@cibc.ca Mike.Rizvanovic@cibc.ca
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Meny Grauman, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-3723
Meny.Grauman@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Strong Retail Franchises Well Positioned For Slower Growing Environment - September 17, 2010

TD Bank
All Figures in $ millions, except per share data (excl. one-time items)
KEY MULTI PLES F2009A F2010E F2011E OUR THESIS
P/E Multiple 13.3x 12.9x 11.9x Our positive bias on this name has been based on our belief that the combination of its strong personal
Peer average 12.7x 11.5x and commercial banking businesses – on both sides of the border – should position it well relative to its
peers in a slower growing environment. Results in the most recent quarter supports our thesis with both
Q3-10
Canadian and U.S. P&C banking posting double-digit q/q earnings growth. We rate TD Bank Sector
P/BVPS 1.7x
Outperformer.
Peer average 2.1x
OPERATING PERFORMANCE F2009A F2010E F2011E SEGMENTED EARNINGS CONTRIBUTION
Core cash EPS $5.50 $5.87 $6.41
120%
Annual EPS growth 1.5% 6.6% 9.2%
Core cash ROE 13.7% 14.0% 14.1% 20%
100% 9% 19% 21%
Efficiency ratio 61.1% 59.8% 59.7% 14%
20% 11%
Operating leverage (YoY) 9.3% (0.6%) 0.6% 80% 23%
14%
18%
18%
CREDIT METRICS F2009A F2010E F2011E 60% 12%
(1)
Loan loss rate 0.83% 0.61% 0.44%
40%
64%
F2009A Q3-10 54% 57% 51%
20%
Gross impaired loans 2,311 3,337
Specific ACLs 558 624 0%
-1% -8% -14%
Total ACLs 2,639 2,579 -6%
Classical Coverage ratio
(2)
114% 77% -20%
Specific ACLs to GILs 24% 19% F2007A F2008A F2009A Q3-10
General ACLs as % of Gross Loans & BAs 0.78% 0.72% Canadian P&C Banking Wealth Management Wholesale Banking U.S. P&C Banking Corporate

KEY EARNI NGS DRIVERS F2009A F2010E F2011E FORWARD P/E MULTIPLE RELATIVE TO PEER GROUP (based on consensus estimates)
Core net interest income 10,254 10,729 11,412 150%
% change 23.6% 4.6% 6.4% 10-y ear Av erage R elativ e F w d P/E: 101% Current Relati v e F w d P/E: 103%
(3)
Total capital markets related revenue 3,833 3,189 2,934 130%
% change 88.2% (16.8%) (8.0%)
Provision for credit losses 2,016 1,611 1,220 110%
% change 93% (20%) (24%)
Non-interest expenses 11,669 11,791 11,999
90%
% change 18.3% 1.0% 1.8%
CAPI TAL MEASURES F2009A F2010E F2011E 70%
Tier 1 capital ratio 11.3% 12.2% 13.4%
Sep-00

Sep-01

Sep-02

Sep-03

Sep-04

Sep-05

Sep-06

Sep-07

Sep-08

Sep-09

Sep-10
Tangible common equity to RWA 9.4% 11.4% 12.4%
Tangible common equity to tangible assets 3.3% 3.7% 3.9% C urrent R elativ e P/E 6-month Mov ing Av erage
Plus 1 Standard Dev iation M inus 1 s tandard Dev iation
Risk Weighted Assets 189,585 191,082 198,841
LOAN BOOK F2009A F2010E F2011E P/BVPS MULTIPLE RELATIVE TO PEER GROUP
Residential mortgages 65,665 68,276 71,048
160%
Personal and credit cards 102,509 108,837 113,256 10-y ear Av erage Relativ e P/B = 96% Current Relativ e P/B = 80%
Business and government 87,322 86,397 89,906 140%
Gross Loans 255,496 263,510 274,210
Acceptances 9,946 7,813 8,293 120%
Total Gross Loans & Acceptances 265,442 271,323 282,503
100%

80%
N otes :
(1) PC Ls as a % of av erage net loans and acceptances (ex cl. repos ). 60%
Sep-00

Sep-01

Sep-02

Sep-05

Sep-06

Sep-07

Sep-09

Sep-10
Sep-03

Sep-04

Sep-08

(2) Total ACLs as a % of GILs.


(3) Ex cludes gains /(losses ) on inv estm ent sec urities.

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

101
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Canadian Media

Torstar Corporation
Stock Rating:
Sector Performer
Outlook Mixed, But Cost-cutting Continues To Drive
Sector Weighting:
Profitability
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $14.00
TS.B-TSX (9/13/10) $12.61 „ Torstar is a Canadian-based media company that owns four daily and 100
Key Indices: Toronto community newspapers, is a leading global book publisher of the Harlequin
franchise and owns a diverse platform of digital properties. The company
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) NM recently divested its 20% interest in CTVglobemedia.
52-week Range $5.92-$12.77
Shares Outstanding 79.0M
Float 53.5M Shrs „ Given persistent cyclical and structural pressures for print newspapers, we
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. NM remain cautious on Torstar's publishing assets. While we have seen a
Market Capitalization $996.1M modest ad recovery in the recent quarter, forward tone remains cautiously
Dividend/Div Yield $0.37 / 2.9% optimistic, and cost efforts remain the primary driver of profitability.
Fiscal Year Ends December
Book Value $8.80 per Shr „ Harlequin continues to remain on strong footing, providing a solid source of
2010 ROE (E) 15.6% revenue to balance the print group's more cyclical reliance on advertising
Net Debt $480.1M
markets. Despite a possible negative impact from foreign exchange, the
Preferred Nil
outlook for Harlequin continues to look stable for H2/10.
Common Equity $694.9M
Convertible Available No
„ While we have likely seen the bottom in ad trends, the recovery is mixed
Earnings Per Share Current across the board. That said, management's focus on cost-cutting efforts
2009 $1.10A and a continued effort to reduce leverage should continue to show gains for
2010 $1.19E the second half of the year. We rate Torstar Sector Performer.
2011 $1.44E
P/E
2009 11.5x
2010 10.6x Stock Price Performance
2011 8.8x

EBITDA ($ mlns.)
Current
2009A $191.8
2010E $236.8
2011E $241.8
EV/EBITDA
2009A 7.7x
2010E 6.3x
2011E 6.1x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Torstar Corp. is a broadly based Canadian media
company that owns Canada's largest daily newspaper, CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
as well as other daily and community papers. It also its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
owns Harlequin Enterprises, a book publisher. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.torstar.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Robert Bek, CFA Tony Rizzi investment decision.
1 (416) 594-7454 1 (416) 594-7299 See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
Bob.Bek@cibc.ca Tony.Rizzi@cibc.ca
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Michael Lee, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-7907
Michaelc.Lee@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Outlook Mixed, But Cost-cutting Continues To Drive Profitability - September 17, 2010

Torstar Corporation (TS.B - TSX) Sector Performer


Current Price : C$12.61 Robert Bek, CFA (416-594-7454) Bob.Bek@cibc.ca
12- To 18- Month Price Target: C$14.00 Tony Rizzi (416-594-7299) Tony Rizzi@cibc.ca
Michael Lee, CFA (416-594-7907) Michaelc.Lee@cibc.ca
All figures in millions except per share data
EV / EBITDA Multiples 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E Company Profile

Torstar Corp. - 7.7x 6.3x 6.1x Torstar is a broad based Media company primarily involved in publishing of daily and
Gannett Inc. - 5.3x 4.6x 4.6x community newspapers. Its assets include the Toronto Star (Canada's largest daily)
McClatchy Co. - 5.5x 5.2x 5.2x and over 100 community newspapers, recently divesting its stake in CTVglobemedia.

P / E Multiples 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E Investment Thesis

Torstar Corp. - 11.5x 10.6x 8.8x Torstar continues to face difficult revenue trends, despite the modest improvement in
Gannett Inc. - 7.3x 5.8x 5.8x the ad markets. Given persistent cyclical and structural pressures for print newspapers,
McClatchy Co. - 4.7x 5.8x 4.9x our outlook for Torstar's publishing assets remains somewhat cautious this year.

Key Financial Metrics 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E While Harlequin remains on solid footing, it will not be enough to offset continuing
pressures on newspaper revenues, even with aggressive cost savings.
Free Cash Flow Yield 17.0% 16.2% 17.3% 19.9%
Payout Ratio 42.8% 22.6% 21.0% 18.3% That said, we believe downside risks have eased as newspaper valuations have
Net Debt / EBITDA 3.0x 2.7x 1.8x 1.2x bounced off the bottom. While challenges still remain, cost savings and stronger ad
Tax Rate NM 33.6% 35.6% 35.0% fundamentals in 2010 offer potential for further upside, in our opinion.

Income Statement 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E Chart 1: Revenues & EBITDA By Segment (2010E)

100%
Revenue 1,536.0 1,451.3 1,460.8 1,484.5
OpEx 1,326.0 1,259.5 1,224.1 1,242.7 32.4% 35.2%
75%
EBITDA 210.1 191.8 236.8 241.8
Depreciation & Amortization 55.5 52.8 49.0 50.0 31.6% 24.8%
50%
EBIT 67.1 70.7 150.6 168.7
Interest Expense 28.2 21.0 24.0 23.1 25%
EBT (158.3) 53.6 147.7 176.2 36.0% 40.0%

Tax Expense 22.2 18.0 52.6 61.7 0%


Revenues EBITDA
Net Income (180.5) 35.6 95.1 114.5
Metroland Star Group Book Publishing
Adj. FD EPS 1.21 1.10 1.19 1.44

Free Cash Flow 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E Key Segment Operating Results (Last Reported Qtr.)

Q2/09 Q2/10 y/y Growth


EBITDA 210.1 191.8 236.8 241.8
Metroland Media Group
Less: Revenues 137.4 141.0 2.6%
Capex 26.1 20.7 25.4 25.0 EBITDA 28.8 30.9 7.5%
Cash Taxes 20.6 21.2 49.5 35.5 % Margin 20.9% 21.9%
Cash Interest 28.2 21.0 24.0 23.1 Star Media Group
Revenues 112.2 117.7 4.9%
EBITDA 8.3 17.8 114.7%
Operating Free Cash Flow (FCF) 135.1 128.9 137.9 158.2
% Margin 7.4% 15.2%
Operating FCF Per Share 1.71 1.63 1.73 1.98
Toronto Star
Print advertisng (y/y Change) -13.2% 0.2%
Digital
% of Newspaper Revenue 6.2% 8.4%

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

103
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Transportation

Transat A.T. Inc.


Stock Rating:
Sector Performer
Canada's Leading Tour Operator
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $16.50
TRZ.B-TSX (9/13/10) $14.26 „ Transat is one of the largest integrated tourism companies in the world and
Key Indices: Toronto a prominent player in Canada's holiday travel industry. Transat has 17
business units with services in Canada, France, the U.K., the Netherlands,
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) NM Greece, the U.S., Mexico and the Dominican Republic.
52-week Range $9.75-$24.90
Shares Outstanding 36.8M
Float 31.0M Shrs „ Transat's vision is to be a tour operator leader in the Americas while
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 113,214 maintaining a solid competitive position in Europe. While Transat is the
Market Capitalization $524.9M largest tour operator in Canada, it faces a new competitive environment,
Dividend/Div Yield Nil / Nil and has been forced to revisit its near-term strategy.
Fiscal Year Ends October
Book Value $10.43 per Shr „ Transat recently launched an outgoing tour operator division in Mexico and
2010 ROE (E) NM will operate under the Eleva Travel brand. Eleva Travel is focused on
LT Debt $6.9M
summer travel demand from Mexico and complements Transat's winter
Preferred Nil
product offering into the region.
Common Equity $383.9M
Convertible Available No
„ For Q4/F10, Transat is seeing higher bookings and higher revenue per
EBITDA ($ mlns.) Current booking in the transatlantic markets but continues to see selling pressure in
2009 $93.4A the sun destination markets. Overall, Transat is guiding towards a y-o-y
2010 $99.8E improvement in revenue and EBITDA margin in its fiscal fourth quarter.
2011 $137.7E
EV/EBITDA
2009 4.2x
2010 3.9x Stock Price Performance
2011 2.8x

Earnings Per Share


2009 $0.99A
2010 $0.79E
2011 $1.38E
P/E
2009 14.4x
2010 18.1x
2011 10.3x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Transat A.T. Inc. is one of N.A.'s leading integrated
leisure travel companies. It operates through a system CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
of tour operators and retail travel agencies as well as its its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
wholly owned airlines. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.transat.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Kevin Chiang Jacob Bout, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-7198 1 (416) 956-6766
Kevin.Chiang@cibc.ca Jacob.Bout@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Canada's Leading Tour Operator - September 17, 2010

Transat AT Inc (TRZ/B - TSX)


Current Price: C$14.26
12- To 18-Month Price Target: C$16.50
All figures in C$ '000, except per share data
October 31 year end Company Description
Transat A.T. Inc. is one of the largest integrated tourism companies in the world
Share Price $14.26 and a prominent player in Canada’s holiday travel industry. Transat, which is
52 Week High $24.90 headquartered in Montreal, has more than 6,500 employees and approximately
52 Week Low $9.75 17 business units, all operating in the travel and air transportation industries, in
Shares Outstanding (mln) 36.8 Canada, France, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Greece, the United
Market Cap. (mln) $525 States, Mexico and the Dominican Republic.

Investment Thesis
Key Multiples 2009 2010E 2011E
1. Excess capacity in Canadian market - Airline carriers expanding into
Transat P/E 14.4x 17.9x 10.4x
packaged tour market is resulting in excess capacity in the Canadian market and
Peer P/E 16.4x 15.8x 12.4x
adding negative pressure on pricing.
Transat EV/EBITDA 4.2x 3.9x 2.8x
2. Cost cutting strategy - Transat is reducing its cost structure through 1)
Peer EV/EBITDA 7.0x 5.2x 4.5x
migrating to a single model fleet; 2) new carrier agreement with CanJet will yield
~$30 million in saving; 3) lowering input costs by leveraging its scale.
Transat P/CF 4.2x 3.9x 2.8x
Peer P/CF 14.8x 7.4x 5.7x
3. Growing its network - Expansion opportunities in Mexico, Spain, Italy and
South America.
Operating Ratios 2009 2010E 2011E
Operating Margin 2.6% 2.9% 3.8%
4. Will US travel demand for sun destinations return to normalized
Return On Equity 9.2% 7.3% 10.7%
levels?
Current Ratio 1.06 1.05 1.15
Quick Ratio 1.04 1.03 1.13
5. Strengthing C$ - Positive for Canadian outbound travel.
LT Debt To Total Capitalization 22.6% 1.5% 1.3%
Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Revenue Growth ($ Million)

Income Statement 2009 2010E 2011E $4,000 3513 3545


Sales 3,545,341 3,497,061 3,646,148 3046
$3,000 2604
EBITDA From Operations 93,395 99,841 137,660 2365
Earnings From Operations 33,723 30,636 52,557 $2,000
FD EPS From Operations 0.99 0.79 1.38
$1,000

$0
Cash Flow 2009 2010E 2011E
CFPS 3.23 2.38 3.60 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
FCFPS 2.19 1.62 2.03
Revenue Breakdown (F2009)
Balance Sheet Q3/F10
Cash + ST Investments 217,278 United Kingdom Other
Current Assets 797,717 6% 2%
PP&E 96,754
France
Total Assets 1,250,807
22%
Current Liabilities 792,483
LT Debt 6,899
Canada
Total Liabilities 866,906
70%
Shareholders' Equity 383,901

Source: Bloomberg, company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

105
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Canadian Media

Transcontinental Inc.
Stock Rating:
Sector Performer
Post-recession Cost Structure Bodes Well For
Sector Weighting:
Improving Tone
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $16.00
TCL.A-TSX (9/13/10) $13.75 „ Transcontinental is the largest printer in Canada and Mexico and the fourth-
Key Indices: Toronto largest in North America. The company is also a leading publisher of
consumer magazines, the largest publisher of community newspapers in
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) NM Quebec and operates a digital platform of more than 120 websites.
52-week Range $10.77-$15.25
Shares Outstanding 80.8M
Float 68.1M Shrs „ TCL has made significant rationalization efforts during the downturn, and
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. NM has continued to prune businesses that are not part of its core focus. As
Market Capitalization $1,111.0M such, positive top-line growth will flow through nicely to the all-important
Dividend/Div Yield $0.36 / 2.6% EBITDA line as TCL's leaner cost base will support a material boost.
Fiscal Year Ends October
Book Value $14.96 per Shr „ TCL's balance sheet continues to improve, with debt to EBITDA hovering at
2010 ROE (E) 12.9% 1.85x, below the company's 2.0x-2.5x target, allowing sufficient capacity to
LT Debt $478.5M
make acquisitions. We expect strategic investments in coming quarters in
Preferred Nil
digital businesses, which continue to offer longer-term growth opportunities.
Common Equity $1,209.0M
Convertible Available No
„ Transcontinental has shown solid performance in recent quarters. We
Earnings Per Share Current believe it will continue to benefit from new contracts, a lower cost base, and
2009 $1.61A improved operating leverage as core print revenues recover. As such, the
2010 $1.80E thesis remains a continued execution story. We rate TCL Sector Performer.
2011 $1.93E
P/E
2009 8.5x
2010 7.6x Stock Price Performance
2011 7.1x

EBITDA ($ mlns.)
2009A $338.9
2010E $384.4
2011E $405.3

EV/EBITDA
2009A 5.4x
2010E 4.7x
2011E 4.5x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Transcontinental is Canada's leading printer of flyers,
direct marketing products, newspapers, books and CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
magazines. The company is also a leading publisher of its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
consumer magazines and weekly newspapers. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.transcontinental.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Robert Bek, CFA Tony Rizzi investment decision.
1 (416) 594-7454 1 (416) 594-7299 See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
Bob.Bek@cibc.ca Tony.Rizzi@cibc.ca
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Michael Lee, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-7907
Michaelc.Lee@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Post-recession Cost Structure Bodes Well For Improving Tone - September 17, 2010

Transcontinental Inc. (TCL.A - TSX) Sector Performer


Current Price : C$13.75 Robert Bek, CFA (416-594-7454) Bob.Bek@cibc.ca
12- To 18- Month Price Target: C$16.00 Tony Rizzi (416-59472-7299) Tony.Rizzi@cibc.ca
Michael Lee, CFA (416-594-7907) Michaelc.Lee@cibc.ca
All figures in millions except per share data
EV / EBITDA Multiples 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Company Profile

Transcontinental Inc. -- 5.4x 4.7x 4.5x Transcontinental (TCL) is a provider of printing, publishing, and marketing services. TCL is
R.R. Donnelley & Sons Co. -- 4.8x 5.0x 4.6x the largest printer in Canada and Mexico, and is the 4th largest in North America. It is also
NA Printer Peers -- 6.3x 5.2x 4.8x Canada's leadnig publisher of magazines, second-largest community newspaper
. .. . . publisher, and operates a digital platform with over 120 websites.

P / E Multiples 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Investment Thesis

Transcontinental Inc. -- 8.5x 7.6x 7.1x We continue to expect stabilizing printing fundamentals and improving ad markets to lead
R.R. Donnelley & Sons Co. -- 10.5x 10.1x 8.9x to improvment in revenues. The segments most likely to benefit from the recovery are
Magazine Publishing and Commercial Printing.
NA Printer Peers -- 12.7x 10.8x 11.4x
. .. . .
The accelerated rationalization efforts and ramp-up of new contract contributions should
Key Financial Metrics 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E contribute significantly to improve profitability in the remainder of F2010 and into F2011.

Free Cash Flow Yield 1.7% 0.0% 15.6% 16.7% Given TCL's diversified revenue base, aggressive cost management capabilities, and
Payout Ratio 140.6% NM 17.2% 16.5% experienced management team, TCL is well positioned to benefit materially from a
sustainable turnaround in the economy.
Net Debt / EBITDA 2.0x 2.3x 1.7x 1.3x
Tax Rate 131.9% NM 23.7% 26.0%

Income Statement 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Chart 1: Revenues & EBITDA By Segment (2010E)

100% 5.4% 1.9%


Revenue 2,429.3 2,169.8 2,154.0 2,203.2
OpEx 2,067.8 1,830.9 1,769.6 1,797.8 27.3% 28.7%
75%
EBITDA 361.5 338.9 384.4 405.3
Depreciation & Amortization 128.7 121.8 138.5 146.9
50%
Adjusted EBIT 232.8 217.1 245.9 258.4
67.3% 69.4%
Interest Expense 30.5 41.0 40.8 38.3 25%
EBT (23.5) (57.3) 198.0 220.1
Tax Expense (Recovery) (31.0) (2.7) 46.8 57.2 0%
Revenues EBITDA
Net Income 7.5 (54.6) 144.1 156.1
Printing Media Marketing Comm.
Adj. FD EPS 1.72 1.61 1.80 1.93

Free Cash Flow 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Key Contracts

EBITDA (w/ Corp. Exp.) 361.5 338.9 384.4 405.3 Outsourcing Contract
Less: - 15-yr contract with Hearst Corp. to print San Francisco Chronicle
Capex 273.1 241.9 135.5 145.0 - Deal is worth US$1 billion (excl. newsprint costs)
Cash Taxes 35.2 41.0 42.5 44.6 - Total investment of US$230MM, and is fully protected by Hearst Corp.
Cash Interest 35.2 41.0 40.8 38.3 - Capacity utilization is ~40% with the base contract alone
Globe & Mail Contract
Operating Free Cash Flow (FCF) 18.0 (0.4) 165.5 177.4 - 18-yr contract to print the Globe & Mail until 2028 in a deal worth ~$1.7 billion
Operating FCF Per Share 0.22 (0.00) 2.05 2.20 - Production will begin in 2010 with the results impacting 2011 revenue
- Expected to generate $95MM per year of which $25MM will be new revenue
- Investment of $175MM with synergies from combining retail and newspaper platfrom
Other Contracts
- Rogers 6-yr contract worth $210MM to print magazines starting in 2009
- Rogers 6-yr contract worth $150MM to print marketing products starting in 2009
Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

107
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Diversified Financials

Western Financial Group Inc.


Stock Rating:
Not Rated
Company Profile
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target None
WES-TSX (9/13/10) $2.30 „ Western Financial is the largest property & casualty broker in Western
Key Indices: Toronto Canada, and also offers banking, life insurance and investment services.
The company derives the majority of its operating income from the
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) NM insurance brokerage segment, which it refers to as “The Network”.
52-week Range $1.90-$3.50
Shares Outstanding 59.8M
Float 56.6M Shrs „ Operating EPS in H1/10 were $0.09, an improvement over the $0.07
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 87,078 reported during H1/09. Total revenues were $110.6MM, up 53% from
Market Capitalization $137.0 H1/09, with same-store revenue +4.7% Y/Y. H1/10 net income was
Dividend/Div Yield $0.04 / 1.7% $8.0MM and the company is targeting $18.5MM-$20.0MM for all of 2010.
Fiscal Year Ends December
Book Value $3.12 per Shr „ The company is expanding via acquisition, with two completed in 2010 for
2011 ROE (E) NA $5.7MM. This follows four acquisitions in 2009 for $63.6MM. In June 2010,
LT Debt $79.8M
Western Financial issued a total of 10.4 million shares at a price of $2.65
Preferred Nil
per share, for net proceeds of $26.5 million.
Common Equity $246.6M
Convertible Available No
„ Consensus estimates for operating EPS are $0.21 and $0.24 in 2010 and
Earnings Per Share Current 2011, implying growth of -4.5% and 14.3%, respectively. Currently,
2007 $0.22A Western Financial trades at 9.6x P/E consensus 2011E, a discount compared
2008 $0.12A to the 12.0x average since 2007.
2009 $0.22A
P/E
2007 23.9x
2008 15.1x Stock Price Performance
2009 11.8x

Book Value Per Share


2007 $2.97A
2008 $4.13A
2009 $4.99A

P/BVPS
2007 0.8x
2008 0.6x
2009 0.5x Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Western Financial Group Inc. is the largest property &
casualty brokerage in Western Canada. The company CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
also provides banking, life insurance and travel services. its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.westernfinancialgroup.ca Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
CIBC World Markets Inc. See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-7000 end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Company Profile - September 17, 2010

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109
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Transportation

WestJet Airlines Ltd.


Stock Rating:
Sector Performer
Aggressive Growth Campaign
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $16.00
WJA-TSX (9/13/10) $11.95 „ Since its inception in 1996, WestJet has grown from a western Canadian
Key Indices: Toronto regional carrier with 3 aircraft flying to 5 cities into one of Canada’s primary
low-fare airlines, offering scheduled service to 68 destinations in Canada,
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) NM the U.S., Mexico and the Caribbean with its fleet of 90 Boeing 737s.
52-week Range $10.75-$14.49
Shares Outstanding 138.8M
Float 122.3M Shrs „ WestJet is aiming to become one of the world's five most successful
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 622,482 international airlines by 2016, with its growth strategy focused on its trans-
Market Capitalization $1,658.9M border and international operations. WestJet's fleet expansion plans and
Dividend/Div Yield Nil / Nil potential airline partnerships are a key component of its growth strategy.
Fiscal Year Ends December
Book Value $10.37 per Shr „ By 2016, WestJet is targeting 45%-50% domestic market share (36%
2010 ROE (E) 9.3% currently), 20%-25% trans-border market share (13% currently) and 30%-
LT Debt $954.9M
35% market share into Mexico/Caribbean destinations (22% currently).
Preferred Nil
WestJet is also focused on increasing its share of premium traffic.
Common Equity $1,439.2M
Convertible Available No
„ WestJet recently adjusted its aircraft delivery schedule, deferring three 700-
EBITDA ($ mlns.) Current series aircraft to 2017. While WestJet is scheduled to increase its fleet to
2009 $351.9A between 112 and 135 planes, in a slow growth environment, we believe it is
2010 $359.1E prudent for WestJet to not add capacity too aggressively.
2011 $431.8E
EV/EBITDA
2009 4.5x
2010 4.4x Stock Price Performance
2011 3.7x

Earnings Per Share


2009 $0.71A
2010 $0.84E
2011 $1.12E
P/E
2009 16.8x
2010 14.2x
2011 10.7x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
WestJet Airlines Ltd. is the leading Canadian low-cost
air carrier. Based in Calgary, WestJet services cities CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
throughout Canada, the U.S. and Mexican and its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
Caribbean destinations. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.westjet.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Jacob Bout, CFA Kevin Chiang
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-6766 1 (416) 594-7198
Jacob.Bout@cibc.ca Kevin.Chiang@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Aggressive Growth Campaign - September 17, 2010

WestJet Airlines Ltd. (WJA - TSX)


Current Price: C$11.95
12- To 18-Month Price Target: C$16.00
All figures in C$ '000, except per share data
$25 Share Price
December 31 year end
$20
Share Price $11.95
$15
52 Week High $14.49
$10
52 Week Low $10.75
$5
Shares Outstanding (mln) 145
$0
Market Cap. (mln) $1,735

Jun-00

Jan-03

Sep-05

Aug-06

Jun-07

Feb-10
Jul-99

Apr-01

Dec-03

Oct-04
Mar-02

Mar-09
May-08
Key Multiples 2009 2010E 2011E
WestJet P/E 16.8x 14.3x 10.7x
Peer P/E 24.1x 12.7x 9.6x Company Description
WestJet EV/EBITDA 4.5x 4.4x 3.7x WestJet, a discount carrier airline, was founded in 1996 and has grown from a
Peer EV/EBITDA 8.7x 7.6x 6.2x western Canadian regional carrier with three aircrafts flying to five cities to one of
Canada’s main low-fare airlines, offering scheduled service to 68 destinations in
WestJet P/CF 5.3x 6.3x 5.7x
Canada, the United States, Mexico and the Caribbean, with its fleet of 88 Boeing
Peer P/CF 7.7x 9.2x 7.8x
Next-Generation 737-series aircraft.
Operating Ratios 2009 2010E 2011E
Operating Margin 9.2% 8.7% 10.2% Investment Thesis
Return On Equity 7.1% 8.2% 10.6% 1. Expanding its network - WestJet is focused on expanding its network
Current Ratio 1.48 1.55 1.32 through code sharing and interline agreements.
Quick Ratio 1.37 1.45 1.21
LT Debt To Total Capitalization 43.1% 39.8% 36.3% 2. Cost containment - WestJet has a more favourable cost structure compared
Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% to many legacy airlines (i.e. non-unionized work force, no large underfunded
Income Statement 2009 2010E 2011E pension, single model fleet). Key for WestJet is to continue to maintain its cost
Sales 2,281 2,575 2,831 advantage.
EBITDA From Operations 352 359 432
Earnings From Operations 98 118 162 3. Going after higher yielding customers - WestJet is focused on capturing
FD EPS From Operations 0.71 0.84 1.12 increase share of the business travel market having recently introduced its own
Cash Flow 2009 2010E 2011E loyalty program.
CFPS 2.26 1.91 2.09
FCFPS 1.15 1.33 0.47 4. Culture / profit sharing - Does "culture" work in a flat share price
environment?
Balance Sheet Q2/10
Cash + ST Investments 1,077
Management
Current Assets 1,162
Gregg Saretsky - President & CEO
PP&E 2,285
Vito Culmone - VP Finance & CFO
Total Assets 3,518
Bob Cummings - EVP, Marketing & Sales
Current Liabilities 796
Hugh Dunleavy - EVP Strategy
LT Debt 1,008
Ferio Pugliese - EVP People & Culture
Total Liabilities 2,109
Shareholders' Equity 1,409

RASM & CASM (cents) cents ASM & Yield bln


5 20 6
15 4 5
3 18 4
3
10 2 15 2
1
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Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4

5 0
Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E
2005 2008 2011E
Operating Profit/ASM (cents) RASM (cents - LHS) Yield (LHS) ASM (RHS)
CASM (cents - LHS)

Source: Bloomberg, company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

111
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update

September 17, 2010 Canadian Media

Yellow Pages Income Fund


Stock Rating:
Sector Performer
Directories Find Bottom And Verticals Stabilizing
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $6.00
YLO.UN-TSX (9/13/10) $5.31 „ YPG is Canada's leading publisher of telephone directories, both in print and
Key Indices: Toronto online. YPG also operates a national platform of vertical media with
approximately 160 publications and 20 websites covering four main product
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) NM verticals: real estate, automotive, employment and generalist.
52-week Range $4.83-$6.98
Shares Outstanding 503.5M
Float 449.1M Shrs „ Although traditional print revenues are declining, we remain confident that
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. NM strong online growth can offset these pressures in the near to medium term
Market Capitalization $2,673.4M with online now representing ~19% of total directory revenues. Coming out
Dividend/Div Yield $0.80 / 15.1% of the recession, the Directories unit looks to have bottomed.
Fiscal Year Ends December
Book Value $10.36 per Shr „ The Trader segment has significant exposure to both the auto and real
2010 ROE (E) NM estate segments, which we expect will rebound slowly. Organic growth in
LT Debt $2,301.9M
this unit continues to be weak. That said, while Trader is clearly struggling,
Preferred $466.14M
it remains only a small portion of YPG's total asset mix.
Common Equity $5,218.1M
Convertible Available Yes
„ Though signs of accelerating structural decline remain modest, and the near
Distributable CF Generated Current term yield is well supported, Yellow Pages has clearly turned into a show-
2009 $1.40A me story with slower-than-expected recovery in the business. We will
2010 $1.40E continue to look for material improvement in the quarterly results.
2011 $1.24E
Payout Ratio
2009 65.7%
2010 57.1% Stock Price Performance
2011 52.4%

Cash Distribution Per Share


2009 $0.92A
2010 $0.80E
2011 $0.65E
Cash-on-Cash Yield
2009 17.3%
2010 15.1%
2011 12.2%
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Yellow Pages Income Fund is Canada's largest
telephone directories publisher, and a leading classified CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
publisher through Trader Media. its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.ypg.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Robert Bek, CFA Tony Rizzi investment decision.
1 (416) 594-7454 1 (416) 594-7299 See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
Bob.Bek@cibc.ca Tony.Rizzi@cibc.ca
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Michael Lee, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-7907
Michaelc.Lee@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Directories Find Bottom And Verticals Stabilizing - September 17, 2010

Yellow Pages Income Fund (YLO.UN - TSX) Sector Performer


Current Price: C$5.31 Robert Bek, CFA (416-594-7454) Bob.Bek@cibc.ca
12- To 18- Month Price Target: C$6.00 Tony Rizzi (416-594-7299) Tony Rizzi@cibc.ca
Michael Lee, CFA (416-594-7907) Michaelc.Lee@cibc.ca
All figures in millions except per share data
EV / EBITDA Multiples 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E Company Profie

Yellow Pages Income Fund - 6.1x 6.2x 6.1x Yellow Pages is the incumbent publisher of print (with over 340 books) and online
PagesJaunes - 8.6x 8.6x 8.4x phone directories in Canada, capturing more than 90% market share. Yellow Pages also
Other International Directory Peers - 6.4x 6.7x 7.0x operates 137 independent print directories in the United States.

P / E Multiples 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E Investment Thesis

Yellow Pages Income Fund - 13.3x 6.6x 7.3x Directories continue to post solid, yet modest growth, reflecting market dominance and
PagesJaunes - 8.7x 9.4x 9.1x online gains. While material NT pressures remain (given large urban market pressures),
modest growth should be sustainable in the longer term.
Other International Directory Peers - 2.3x 4.4x 4.5x
Traders has shown improvement, but continues to struggle. Given the segments
Key Financial Metrics 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E exposure to auto (~70%) and real estate (~17%), we expect the segment to slowly
rebound. Consolidated online revenues remains a key long-term component for YLO,
Distributable Cash Flow Yield 26.6% 25.3% 25.0% 22.1% and growth remains robust.
Payout Ratio 79.9% 66.1% 57.2% 52.5% While many global peers are facing pressures, our YPG thesis is intact, and we remain
Net Debt (w/ Prefs) / EBITDA 3.4x 3.1x 3.3x 3.0x confident in the future stability and modest growth of the franchise.

Income Statement 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E Chart 1: Revenues & EBITDA By Segment (2010E)

100%
Revenue 1,696.7 1,639.9 1,654.8 1,673.5 10.4%
18.9%
OpEx
75%
EBITDA 932.7 893.4 882.9 900.1
Depreciation & Amortization 186.1 142.4 205.0 210.0
50%
EBIT 746.6 751.0 677.9 690.1 89.6%
81.1%
Interest Expense 142.3 114.6 125.3 131.1 25%
EBT 563.4 281.1 524.8 559.0
Tax Expense (Recovery) 30.7 42.7 65.6 156.5 0%
Revenues EBITDA
Net Income 509.2 204.3 423.6 366.0 Directories Trader
Adj. FD EPU 0.97 0.40 0.81 0.73

Distributable Cash Flow 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E Key Operating Statistics

Q2/09 Q2/10 y/y Growth


EBITDA 932.7 893.4 882.9 900.1
Traditional Print Revenue
Less: Directory 293.2 276.2 -5.8%
Maintenance Capex 21.1 14.3 17.2 51.3 Vertical Media 41.1 36.5 -11.1%
Interest Expense 134.2 141.9 125.0 131.1
Cash Taxes 0.0 0.0 0.0 60.0 Online Revenue
Other 26.5 23.0 35.7 34.0 Directory 49.9 63.2 26.8%
Vertical Media 25.4 44.5 75.0%
Distributable Cash 750.9 714.3 705.0 623.7
Per Unit 1.43 1.40 1.40 1.24 Total Online Revenue 75.3 107.7 43.1%
Distributions Paid 599.9 471.9 403.0 327.3 % of Consolidated Revenue 18.0% 25.6%
Per Unit 1.15 0.92 0.80 0.65
Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

113
9th Annual Eastern Institutional Investor Conference - September 17, 2010

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES:
Analyst Certification: Each CIBC World Markets research analyst named on the front page of this research report, or
at the beginning of any subsection hereof, hereby certifies that (i) the recommendations and opinions expressed herein
accurately reflect such research analyst's personal views about the company and securities that are the subject of this
report and all other companies and securities mentioned in this report that are covered by such research analyst and (ii)
no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific
recommendations or views expressed by such research analyst in this report.

Potential Conflicts of Interest: Equity research analysts employed by CIBC World Markets are compensated from
revenues generated by various CIBC World Markets businesses, including the CIBC World Markets Investment Banking
Department. Research analysts do not receive compensation based upon revenues from specific investment banking
transactions. CIBC World Markets generally prohibits any research analyst and any member of his or her household from
executing trades in the securities of a company that such research analyst covers. Additionally, CIBC World Markets
generally prohibits any research analyst from serving as an officer, director or advisory board member of a company that
such analyst covers.

In addition to 1% ownership positions in covered companies that are required to be specifically disclosed in this report,
CIBC World Markets may have a long position of less than 1% or a short position or deal as principal in the securities
discussed herein, related securities or in options, futures or other derivative instruments based thereon.

Recipients of this report are advised that any or all of the foregoing arrangements, as well as more specific disclosures
set forth below, may at times give rise to potential conflicts of interest.

114
9th Annual Eastern Institutional Investor Conference - September 17, 2010

Important Disclosure Footnotes for Companies Mentioned in this Report that Are Covered
by CIBC World Markets Inc.:

Stock Prices as of 09/22/2010:


Aecon Group Inc. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g) (ARE-TSX, C$11.95, Restricted)
AGF Management Limited (2g, 3a, 3c, 13) (AGF.B-TSX, C$15.79, Sector Outperformer)
Air Canada (2g, C38) (AC.B-TSX, C$2.78, Sector Outperformer - Speculative)
Astral Media Inc. (2g, 3a, 3c, 7, 12, 13) (ACM.A-TSX, C$38.92, Sector Performer)
Bank of Montreal (2a, 2c, 2d, 2e, 2f, 2g, 3a, 3c, 7) (BMO-TSX, C$59.42, Sector Outperformer)
Bank of Nova Scotia (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g, 3a, 3c, 7) (BNS-TSX, C$53.05, Sector Performer)
BCE Inc. (2g, 7, CD2) (BCE-TSX, C$33.81, Sector Performer)
Bell Aliant Regional Comm. Income Fund (2g, 3a, 3c, 7) (BA.UN-TSX, C$25.93, Sector Performer)
Bird Construction Income Fund (2g) (BDT.UN-TSX, C$37.58, Sector Performer)
Bombardier Inc. (2a, 2d, 2e, 2f, 2g, 7, 12) (BBD.B-TSX, C$4.89, Sector Outperformer)
Brookfield Asset Management (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g, 3a, 3c, 7, 14) (BAM-NYSE, US$27.31, Sector Outperformer)
Brookfield Office Properties Corporation (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g, 3a, 3c) (BPO-NYSE, US$15.30, Sector Performer)
Brookfield Renewable Power Fund (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g, 3a, 7) (BRC.UN-TSX, C$20.74, Sector Performer)
CAE Inc. (2g, 4a, 4b, 9) (CAE-TSX, C$10.67, Sector Outperformer)
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (2a, 2c, 2d, 2e, 2f, 2g, 3a, 3c, 6a, 7, 8, 9) (CM-TSX, C$73.67, Not Rated)
Canadian National Railway Co. (2g, 7, 9) (CNR-TSX, C$66.44, Sector Performer)
Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g, 7, 9) (CP-TSX, C$63.55, Sector Performer)
Canadian Western Bank (2g, 7) (CWB-TSX, C$24.01, Sector Underperformer)
CGI Group Inc. (2g, 9, 12) (GIB.A-TSX, C$14.73, Sector Outperformer)
CI Financial Corp. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g) (CIX-TSX, C$20.24, Sector Underperformer)
Cineplex Galaxy Income Fund (2g, 7, 9) (CGX.UN-TSX, C$21.01, Sector Outperformer)
Constellation Software Inc. (2g) (CSU-TSX, C$43.98, Sector Outperformer)
Corus Entertainment Inc. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g, 7, 13) (CJR.B-TSX, C$21.39, Sector Performer)
Descartes Systems Group Inc. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g, 3a, 7) (DSGX-OTC, US$5.87, Sector Outperformer)
FirstService Corporation (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g, 12) (FSV-TSX, C$24.03, Sector Outperformer)
GENIVAR Income Fund (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g, 7) (GNV.UN-TSX, C$27.79, Sector Outperformer)
Genworth MI Canada Inc. (2a, 2c, 2g, 7) (MIC-TSX, C$25.50, Sector Outperformer)
Great-West Lifeco Inc. (2a, 2c, 2e) (GWO-TSX, C$24.81, Sector Underperformer)
IBI Income Fund (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g) (IBG.UN-TSX, C$13.44, Sector Outperformer)
IESI - BFC Ltd. (2g, 4a, 4b, 7) (BIN-NYSE, US$22.94, Sector Performer)
IGM Financial Inc. (2a, 2c, 2e) (IGM-TSX, C$41.47, Sector Underperformer)
Industrial Alliance Insurance And Financial Services Inc. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g, 7) (IAG-TSX, C$32.40, Sector Outperformer)
Intact Financial Corp. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g, 3a, 3c, 7, 14) (IFC-TSX, C$44.41, Sector Performer)
Jazz Air Income Fund (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g, 7) (JAZ.UN-TSX, C$4.38, Sector Performer)
Laurentian Bank (2g) (LB-TSX, C$42.80, Sector Performer)
Linamar Corporation (2g, 9) (LNR-TSX, C$19.18, Sector Performer)
Magna International Inc. (2a, 2e, 2g, 4a, 4b, 7, 12) (MGA-NYSE, US$79.09, Sector Outperformer)
Manitoba Telecom Services Inc. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g, 7) (MBT-TSX, C$27.57, Sector Performer)
Manulife Financial Corporation (2a, 2c, 2e, 3a, 3c, 7) (MFC-TSX, C$13.00, Sector Performer)
National Bank Of Canada (2a, 2e, 2g, 3a, 3c, 7, 8) (NA-TSX, C$64.14, Sector Performer)
New Flyer Industries Inc. (2g, 7) (NFI.UN-TSX, C$11.77, Sector Outperformer)
Power Corporation of Canada (2g, 7, 12) (POW-TSX, C$26.94, Sector Performer)
Power Financial Corporation (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g) (PWF-TSX, C$29.17, Sector Performer)
Quebecor Inc. (2g, 12) (QBR.B-TSX, C$33.95, Sector Outperformer)
Rogers Communications Inc. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g, 3a, 3c, 7, 13) (RCI.B-TSX, C$38.98, Sector Outperformer)
RONA Inc. (2g, 7) (RON-TSX, C$12.82, Sector Performer)
Royal Bank of Canada (2a, 2c, 2d, 2e, 2f, 2g, 3a, 3c, 7) (RY-TSX, C$53.02, Sector Performer)

115
9th Annual Eastern Institutional Investor Conference - September 17, 2010

Important Disclosure Footnotes for Companies Mentioned in this Report that Are Covered
by CIBC World Markets Inc.: (Continued)

Stock Prices as of 09/22/2010:


Russel Metals Inc. (2g) (RUS-TSX, C$20.06, Sector Underperformer)
Shaw Communications Inc. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g, 3a, 3c, 13) (SJR.B-TSX, C$22.13, Sector Outperformer)
SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. (2g, 7) (SNC-TSX, C$49.88, Sector Outperformer)
Stantec Inc. (2g, 3a, 3c) (STN-TSX, C$27.49, Sector Performer)
Sun Life Financial Inc. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g, 7) (SLF-TSX, C$26.90, Sector Performer)
TD Bank (2a, 2c, 2e, 2f, 2g, 3a, 3c, 7) (TD-TSX, C$74.36, Sector Outperformer)
Teck Resources Limited (2a, 2b, 2c, 2e, 2f, 2g, 7, 9, 12) (TCK.B-TSX, C$39.99, Sector Outperformer)
TELUS Corporation (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g, 7, 13) (T-TSX, C$43.89, Sector Outperformer)
Torstar Corporation (2g, 13, CD2) (TS.B-TSX, C$12.57, Sector Performer)
Transat A.T. Inc. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g) (TRZ.B-TSX, C$14.99, Sector Performer)
Transcontinental Inc. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g, 12) (TCL.A-TSX, C$13.55, Sector Performer)
TVA Group Inc. (2g, 13) (TVA.B-TSX, C$12.50, Sector Performer)
WestJet Airlines Ltd. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g) (WJA-TSX, C$11.82, Sector Performer)
Yellow Pages Income Fund (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g, 3a, 3c, 7) (YLO.UN-TSX, C$5.50, Sector Performer)

Companies Mentioned in this Report that Are Not Covered by CIBC World Markets Inc.:

Stock Prices as of 09/22/2010:


Brookfield Homes (BHS-NYSE, US$8.28, Not Rated)
Carmike Cinemas Inc. (CKEC-NASDAQ, US$7.54, Not Rated)
Cinemark Holdings Inc. (CNK-NYSE, US$15.50, Not Rated)
Comcast (CMCSA-NASDAQ, US$18.07, Not Rated)
Dorel Industries Inc. (DII.B-TSX, C$33.58, Not Rated)
Gannett Co. Inc. (GCI-NYSE, US$12.27, Not Rated)
Home Capital Group (HCG-TSX, C$43.43, Not Rated)
Home Depot (HD-NYSE, US$30.81, Not Rated)
Lowe's Companies (LOW-NYSE, US$21.66, Not Rated)
McClatchy Co. (MNI-NYSE, US$3.77, Not Rated)
PagesJaunes Group (PAJ-PA, €8.49, Not Rated)
Pargesa Holding SA (PARG-S, [CHF]71.30, Not Rated)
R.R. Donnelley (RRD-NASDAQ, US$16.60, Not Rated)
Regal Entertainment Group (RGC-NYSE, US$12.62, Not Rated)
Time Warner Cable (TWC-NYSE, US$51.50, Not Rated)
TMX Group Inc. (X-TSX, C$30.00, Not Rated)
Western Financial Group (WES-TSX, C$2.34, Not Rated)

Important disclosure footnotes that correspond to the footnotes in this table may be found in the "Key to
Important Disclosure Footnotes" section of this report.

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9th Annual Eastern Institutional Investor Conference - September 17, 2010

Key to Important Disclosure Footnotes:


1 CIBC World Markets Corp. makes a market in the securities of this company.
2a This company is a client for which a CIBC World Markets company has performed investment banking services
in the past 12 months.
2b CIBC World Markets Corp. has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for this company in the
past 12 months.
2c CIBC World Markets Inc. has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for this company in the
past 12 months.
2d CIBC World Markets Corp. has received compensation for investment banking services from this company in
the past 12 months.
2e CIBC World Markets Inc. has received compensation for investment banking services from this company in the
past 12 months.
2f CIBC World Markets Corp. expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services
from this company in the next 3 months.
2g CIBC World Markets Inc. expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services
from this company in the next 3 months.
3a This company is a client for which a CIBC World Markets company has performed non-investment banking,
securities-related services in the past 12 months.
3b CIBC World Markets Corp. has received compensation for non-investment banking, securities-related services
from this company in the past 12 months.
3c CIBC World Markets Inc. has received compensation for non-investment banking, securities-related services
from this company in the past 12 months.
4a This company is a client for which a CIBC World Markets company has performed non-investment banking,
non-securities-related services in the past 12 months.
4b CIBC World Markets Corp. has received compensation for non-investment banking, non-securities-related
services from this company in the past 12 months.
4c CIBC World Markets Inc. has received compensation for non-investment banking, non-securities-related
services from this company in the past 12 months.
5a The CIBC World Markets Corp. analyst(s) who covers this company also has a long position in its common
equity securities.
5b A member of the household of a CIBC World Markets Corp. research analyst who covers this company has a
long position in the common equity securities of this company.
6a The CIBC World Markets Inc. fundamental analyst(s) who covers this company also has a long position in its
common equity securities.
6b A member of the household of a CIBC World Markets Inc. fundamental research analyst who covers this
company has a long position in the common equity securities of this company.
7 CIBC World Markets Corp., CIBC World Markets Inc., and their affiliates, in the aggregate, beneficially own 1%
or more of a class of equity securities issued by this company.
8 An executive of CIBC World Markets Inc. or any analyst involved in the preparation of this research report has
provided services to this company for remuneration in the past 12 months.
9 A senior executive member or director of Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce ("CIBC"), the parent company
to CIBC World Markets Inc. and CIBC World Markets Corp., or a member of his/her household is an officer,
director or advisory board member of this company or one of its subsidiaries.
10 Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce ("CIBC"), the parent company to CIBC World Markets Inc. and CIBC
World Markets Corp., has a significant credit relationship with this company.
11 The equity securities of this company are restricted voting shares.
12 The equity securities of this company are subordinate voting shares.
13 The equity securities of this company are non-voting shares.
14 The equity securities of this company are limited voting shares.
CD2 CIBC World Markets Inc. is acting as financial advisor to Ontario Teachers Pension Plan in the proposed sale of
CTVglobemedia Inc. to BCE Inc.
C38 The Class A shares of Air Canada are variable voting shares. The Class B shares of Air Canada are converted
to Class A shares if they become held by a person who is not a Canadian.

117
9th Annual Eastern Institutional Investor Conference - September 17, 2010

CIBC World Markets Inc. Price Chart


For price and performance information charts required under NYSE and NASD rules, please visit CIBC on the web at
http://apps.cibcwm.com/sec2711 or write to CIBC World Markets Inc., Brookfield Place, 161 Bay Street, 4th Floor,
Toronto, Ontario M5J 2S8, Attn: Research Disclosure Chart Request.

CIBC World Markets Inc. Stock Rating System


Abbreviation Rating Description
Stock Ratings
SO Sector Outperformer Stock is expected to outperform the sector during the next 12-18 months.
SP Sector Performer Stock is expected to perform in line with the sector during the next 12-18 months.
SU Sector Underperformer Stock is expected to underperform the sector during the next 12-18 months.
NR Not Rated CIBC World Markets does not maintain an investment recommendation on the stock.
R Restricted CIBC World Markets is restricted*** from rating the stock.
Sector Weightings**
O Overweight Sector is expected to outperform the broader market averages.
M Market Weight Sector is expected to equal the performance of the broader market averages.
U Underweight Sector is expected to underperform the broader market averages.
NA None Sector rating is not applicable.
**Broader market averages refer to the S&P 500 in the U.S. and the S&P/TSX Composite in Canada.
"Speculative" indicates that an investment in this security involves a high amount of risk due to volatility and/or liquidity issues.
***Restricted due to a potential conflict of interest.

Ratings Distribution*: CIBC World Markets Inc. Coverage Universe


(as of 17 Sep 2010) Count Percent Inv. Banking Relationships Count Percent
Sector Outperformer (Buy) 135 43.1% Sector Outperformer (Buy) 132 97.8%
Sector Performer (Hold/Neutral) 144 46.0% Sector Performer (Hold/Neutral) 135 93.8%
Sector Underperformer (Sell) 23 7.3% Sector Underperformer (Sell) 19 82.6%
Restricted 10 3.2% Restricted 10 100.0%

*Although the investment recommendations within the three-tiered, relative stock rating system utilized by CIBC World Markets Inc.
do not correlate to buy, hold and sell recommendations, for the purposes of complying with NYSE and NASD rules, CIBC World
Markets Inc. has assigned buy ratings to securities rated Sector Outperformer, hold ratings to securities rated Sector Performer, and
sell ratings to securities rated Sector Underperformer without taking into consideration the analyst's sector weighting.

Important disclosures required by IIROC Rule 3400, including potential conflicts of interest information, our system for
rating investment opportunities and our dissemination policy can be obtained by visiting CIBC World Markets on the web
at http://researchcentral.cibcwm.com under 'Quick Links' or by writing to CIBC World Markets Inc., Brookfield Place, 161
Bay Street, 4th Floor, Toronto, Ontario M5J 2S8, Attention: Research Disclosures Request.

118
9th Annual Eastern Institutional Investor Conference - September 17, 2010

Legal Disclaimer
This report is issued and approved for distribution by (a) in Canada, CIBC World Markets Inc., a member of the
Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (“IIROC”), the Toronto Stock Exchange, the TSX Venture
Exchange and CIPF, (b) in the United Kingdom, CIBC World Markets plc, which is regulated by the Financial Services
Authority ("FSA"), and (c) in Australia, CIBC Australia Limited, a member of the Australian Stock Exchange and regulated
by the ASIC (collectively, "CIBC World Markets") and (d) in the United States either by (i) CIBC World Markets Inc. for
distribution only to U.S. Major Institutional Investors (“MII”) (as such term is defined in SEC Rule 15a-6) or (ii) CIBC
World Markets Corp., a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”). U.S. MIIs receiving this report
from CIBC World Markets Inc. (the Canadian broker-dealer) are required to effect transactions (other than negotiating
their terms) in securities discussed in the report through CIBC World Markets Corp. (the U.S. broker-dealer).
This report is provided, for informational purposes only, to institutional investor and retail clients of CIBC World
Markets in Canada, and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities discussed herein in any
jurisdiction where such offer or solicitation would be prohibited. This document and any of the products and information
contained herein are not intended for the use of private investors in the United Kingdom. Such investors will not be able
to enter into agreements or purchase products mentioned herein from CIBC World Markets plc. The comments and views
expressed in this document are meant for the general interests of wholesale clients of CIBC Australia Limited.
The securities mentioned in this report may not be suitable for all types of investors. This report does not take into
account the investment objectives, financial situation or specific needs of any particular client of CIBC World Markets.
Recipients should consider this report as only a single factor in making an investment decision and should not rely solely
on investment recommendations contained herein, if any, as a substitution for the exercise of independent judgment of
the merits and risks of investments. The analyst writing the report is not a person or company with actual, implied or
apparent authority to act on behalf of any issuer mentioned in the report. Before making an investment decision with
respect to any security recommended in this report, the recipient should consider whether such recommendation is
appropriate given the recipient's particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. CIBC World
Markets suggests that, prior to acting on any of the recommendations herein, Canadian retail clients of CIBC World
Markets contact one of our client advisers in your jurisdiction to discuss your particular circumstances. Non-client
recipients of this report who are not institutional investor clients of CIBC World Markets should consult with an
independent financial advisor prior to making any investment decision based on this report or for any necessary
explanation of its contents. CIBC World Markets will not treat non-client recipients as its clients by virtue of their
receiving this report.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is
made regarding future performance of any security mentioned in this report. The price of the securities mentioned in
this report and the income they produce may fluctuate and/or be adversely affected by exchange rates, and investors
may realize losses on investments in such securities, including the loss of investment principal. CIBC World Markets
accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of information contained in this report, except to the extent that
liability may arise under specific statutes or regulations applicable to CIBC World Markets.
Information, opinions and statistical data contained in this report were obtained or derived from sources believed to
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9th Annual Eastern Institutional Investor Conference - September 17, 2010

Legal Disclaimer (Continued)


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