The Future of Media

Liz Landy, Ipsos MediaCT

Setting The Scene
Neil Mortensen, OPera Media
OPera’s positioning within Omnicom Media
Group, UK
Pressure on the UK
Advertising linked to the economy

Source: HM Treasury/AA/OPera, Current Prices

Consumer media usage - growth driven
by digital

Source: BARB, RAJAR, CAA, ABC, Nielsen NetView

Little real growth without digital’s
support

Source: OPera, Current Prices

Our “known” world

Press – 63k Tube – 270k TV spots – 7m 6 sheets – 300k

Bus – 70k Online – 13m Sponsorship – 51 96 sheets/larger – 7k

 Continued evolution
Intelligent Web 
Connections between Information

Web OS
Web 4.0 
2020 ‐ 2030
Intelligent personal agents
Semantic Web Web 3.0  Distributed Search
SWRL
OWL 2010 ‐ 2020
AJAX SPARQL Semantic Databases
OpenID
Semantic Search
Social Web ATOM Widgets
P2P RDF RSS Mashups
Office 2.0
Javascript
SOAP XML
Flash Web 2.0 
The Web Java 2000 ‐ 2010 Weblogs Social Media Sharing
HTML
HTTP SaaS Social Networking
Directory Portals Wikis
VR
Keyword Search Lightweight Collaboration
The PC BBS Gopher
Web 1.0  Websites
1990 ‐ 2000
MMO’s MacOS SQL
Groupware
SGML Databases
Windows
File Servers
The Internet
PC Era
FTP IRC Email 1980 ‐ 1990
USENET
PC’s File Systems

Connections between people
Source: http://novaspivack.typepad.com/
Track everything, but know which ones
to back
How do we use the information?
ƒ Develop commercial and
creative communication
opportunities for our clients
ƒ Enable Omnicom agencies to
continue to build famous
brands in an evolving media
future
ƒ Thought leadership and media
insight - At the forefront of
innovation in new ‘developing’
platforms
ƒ Inform our own business
strategy
Consumer choice at the centre of the new landscape

My Content My Advertising
Introducing Horizons
Julian Thompson, Ipsos MORI
What is Horizons?

“What’s out there, and

how can I make it work
Lateral and forward for me?”
thinking for…
„Strategy
„Innovation
„Culture
 How does it work?

Embraces complexity
and uncertainty

Collaboration, not control

Fresh, eclectic and bespoke

The process: an evolutionary cycle

Sensing
How is the environment
changing? Eclectic
research, inquiry and
discovery. Trends.

Adaptation Sense-making
Apply innovations or pilot Join the dots where
schemes to the environment. possible. Identify strategic
choices and potential
innovations.
Collaboration and knowledge
Example “Sigma
Scan” output

www.foresight/gov/uk/sigmascanpro OR www.simascan.org
Collaboration and knowledge
Example
Futures wiki Futures wiki for LGA (still in development)
http://communities.ipsos-mori.com/lgawiki/index.php/Main_Page
Bringing it all together….
Sarah Gale, Ipsos MORI
Bringing it all together….

Tech Tracker

InterAct
Themes

Primary research Secondary research

Vox pops, omnibus work, Industry currencies, trade

expert interviews publications, conferences

Media Horizons Insight Bank

Future
Key themes Left field thinking
understanding
Themes
Growth of mobile advertising
Media convergence
Consumer empowerment
Shifting advertising spend patterns
Customisation of media
Power shifts
Centrality of convenience and control
Importance of quality Rise of expectations
Content in context Sit back and sit forward TV

Importance of media brands

Importance of virtual communities

Emergence of new revenue models

New generations of digital natives
The digital divide
Convenience and Control
We’re all convenience driven….
Time poor & convenience driven

40% agree that they 22% agree that they

‘have lots of spare ‘don’t have time to
time to do what spend preparing and
I want’ cooking food’

57% agree that ‘there just

aren’t enough hours in the
day to do what I want’

Source: Ipsos MORI Real Trends Base: 2,019 British adults, 9 May-5 June 2008
Growth of DVRs

3.4m subscribers 0.36 m subscribers 0.13 m subscribers

Source: Ofcom Digital Television Update, Q1 2008

‘You're probably going to end up with an evening's

viewing which builds a schedule around you. It might be
on-demand, it might be scheduled due to your age or
likes and dislikes.’
Ashley Highfield, BBC, 2006
Internet enables flexibility

Ipsos MORI Technology Tracker March 2005 – July 2008

Base: circa 2,000 interviews per month
Mobility

“Martini media”
Mark Thompson, BBC
Our attitudes are also changing….

79% of Sky+ subscribers 76% of Sky+

agree that they are subscribers agree
now watching that Sky+ has
programmes broadcast changed the way
at inconvenient times they watch TV

74% of Sky+ subscribers

agree that they have total
control over their viewing
since they got Sky+
Source: 1,203 Sky+ subscribers, April 2007
The future?
ƒ Convenience and
control to play an
increasingly
important role
ƒ But make sure that
we’re really saving
time or effort
ƒ Don’t forget that
not everyone is
adopting!
New Revenue Models
Free content?
The majority of music downloaders are
“Freeloaders”
23% ever download music

Base: all adults 16+ (c.1,000 interviews per market, per wave)
Source: Omnibus Europe – Q4 2007
 Freeloaders are still spending

Free loaders: total music category spend per year estimate £600 million
56% on other category spend…..44% on recorded music

Source: Tempo Q9 Base: all - GB (n=793*), France (n=1007), Germany = (n=1004)

Online video models

Preferences for online video services for favourite shows…

Source: Ipsos U.S. Omnibus Base: All respondents (n=1,000)

New television revenue models

Base: 4,104 Sky Subscribers; April 2007

Acceptance of mobile advertising

• No mobile advertising (Equal Preference) • Includes mobile

• Costs more to purchase advertising
• Higher monthly service fees • Costs less to purchase
• Lower service fees
Base: All respondents, 143 GPhone Intenders
Themes
Growth of mobile advertising
Media convergence
Consumer empowerment
Shifting advertising spend patterns
Customisation of media
Power shifts
Centrality of convenience and control
Importance of quality Rise of expectations
Content in context Sit back and sit forward TV

Importance of media brands

Importance of virtual communities

Emergence of new revenue models

New generations of digital natives
The digital divide
The Future of Media