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Composite Structure Engineering Safety Awareness Course Definition of A- and B-basis Values and An In-depth
Composite
Structure Engineering
Safety
Awareness
Course
Definition of
A- and
B-basis
Values
and An In-depth
Look
at CMH-17
Statistical Analysis Techniques
Yeow Ng
1
September 14-16, 2010
A-Basis and B-Basis Definitions Design values must be chosen to minimize the probability of structural
A-Basis
and
B-Basis
Definitions
Design values must
be chosen to
minimize
the
probability
of
structural failure due to
material variability.
Compliance is typically shown by selecting
design
values
that
ensure material strength with the
following
probability:
Where
applied
loads
are eventually distributed through a single
member within
an assembly, the failure of which would
result in
loss
of
structural integrity
of
the component;
99 percent
probability with 95 percent confidence interval (that is,
A-basis value).
For redundant structure, in which
the failure
of
individual
elements
would result in applied loads being
safely distributed to
other load carrying members; 90 percent probability with 95
percent confidence interval (that is, B-basis values).
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September 14-16, 2010
A − Basis value = x − ( K ) ⋅ s A B −
A −
Basis value
= x
( K
) ⋅ s
A
B −
Basis value = x
( K
)
s
B
3
September 14-16, 2010
The internet browser-based simulation program is available at NCAMP website http://www.niar.wichita.edu/coe/ncamp_media.asp

The internet browser-based simulation program is available at NCAMP website http://www.niar.wichita.edu/coe/ncamp_media.asp

K_factor

Effect of Sample Size on K_factors

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

A55 A75
A55
A75
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
B18 B30   B18 Pooling  

B18

B30

 

B18 Pooling

 
B18 B30   B18 Pooling  
B18 B30   B18 Pooling  
B18 B30   B18 Pooling  
   
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
 
       
       
       
 

0

10

20

30

40

Sample Size, n

50

60

70

80

Effects of CV and Sample Size on Basis Values

Mean=100

100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 When sample size is 15 or more,
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
When sample size is 15 or more, CV has
a greater impact on basis values
than the sample size. When CV is
60
unrealistically low, use Modified CV to
avoid overly optimistic basis values.
55
50
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Basis Values

Sample Size, n

B-value, CV=2%

A-value, CV=2%

B-value, CV=4%

B-value, CV=6%

A-value, CV=4%

B-value, CV=8%

A-value, CV=6%

A-value, CV=8%

Methods to Calculate Basis Values CMH-17 combines the two, MIL-HDBK-17F giving preference to the AGATE
Methods to
Calculate
Basis Values
CMH-17 combines the two,
MIL-HDBK-17F
giving preference to the
AGATE method
Normal,
Weibull, Lognormal
distributions
unless certain assumption
are not met
Based on Observed Significance Level (OSL)
Non-Parametric
STATISTICAL FACT: Much larger
Batches
pooled within environment
sample size needed
to
Data
NOT pooled across environments
estimate std deviation than
Large sample size required
at each
environment
to estimate mean
ANOVA (assumes normal distribution)
STAT-17
(a.k.a. Single Point) Excel
Spreadsheet
Macro
(J.Adelmann, Sikorsky Aircraft)
AGATE (Ref. P.Shyprykevich, ASTM STP 1003,
1989.)
Normal Distribution only
Batches
pooled within environment
Data
pooled across environments
Allowables based on mean of small
sample
and variability
of large pooled sample
Published in DOT/FAA/AR-03/19
ASAP
Excel
Spreadsheet Macro (K. Suresh Raju, Wichita State University)
RECIPE (Ref. M.G.Vangel, A
User’s Guide
to Recipe, NIST, 1994
)
Normal Distribution only
Regression model
FORTRAN program
7
September 14-16, 2010
Material Allowable Generation with STAT-17 • STAT-17 computes basis values one environment at RTD CTD
Material Allowable
Generation with
STAT-17
STAT-17 computes basis
values one
environment
at
RTD
CTD
a time (thus a.k.a Single
Point)
ETW
STAT-17 method might
NORMAL
result in
“distributional
WEIBULL
ANOVA
changes” which
produces
allowables
that do not
make engineering sense
Extremely difficult to
obtain “realistic”
load
enhancement factors
and
Environment
environmental
compensation factor
Mean
B-basis from STAT-17
8
September 14-16, 2010
Material Property
Material Allowable Generation with ASAP • For the ASAP procedure, only normal distribution is RTD
Material Allowable Generation
with ASAP
For the ASAP procedure,
only normal distribution is
RTD
CTD
utilized thus eliminating the
ETW
possibility of “distributional
changes”**
NORMAL
NORMAL
Common (pooled) standard
NORMAL
deviation results
in
equal
amount
of knock-down for
every environment**
Basis values and mean
values follow
trend
the same
Environment
** Must meet requirements of
normality
Mean
and
pooling
across
environment.
Otherwise, use
STAT-17
B-basis from ASAP
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September 14-16, 2010
Material Property
Standard Deviations Unequal Population used when population standard STAT-17 should be deviations are unequal across

Standard

Deviations

Unequal Population

Standard Deviations Unequal Population used when population standard STAT-17 should be deviations are unequal across
Standard Deviations Unequal Population used when population standard STAT-17 should be deviations are unequal across

used

when population standard

STAT-17 should be

deviations

are unequal across environment

September 14-16, 2010

Unequal Population Standard Deviations ASAP vs. STAT17, Unequal Standard Deviations For samples that have 90
Unequal Population
Standard
Deviations
ASAP vs. STAT17,
Unequal Standard Deviations
For
samples that
have
90
5
ASAP, Mean of B-basis
4.5
80
Stat17, Mean of B-basis
significantly different
4
ASAP, Std Dev of B-basis
70
Stat17, Std
Dev of B-basis
3.5
variances, STAT-17
should be used.
Equality of variance
60
3
50
2.5
40
2
30
1.5
20
1
test (Levene’s test)
is
10
0.5
0
0
diagnostic test
within ASAP.
a
CTD
RTD
ETD
ETW
CTD
RTD
ETD
ETW
Mean
80
80
80
80
Stdev
2
8
8
16
n
30
30
30
30
September 14-16, 2010
Value of Mean
Value of Standard Deviation
Standard Deviations Equal Population ASAP produces slightly higher more stable basis values and September 14-16,
Standard Deviations Equal Population ASAP produces slightly higher more stable basis values and September 14-16,

Standard

Deviations

Equal Population

Standard Deviations Equal Population ASAP produces slightly higher more stable basis values and September 14-16, 2010
Standard Deviations Equal Population ASAP produces slightly higher more stable basis values and September 14-16, 2010

ASAP produces slightly higher

more stable basis values

and

September 14-16, 2010

Equal Population Standard Deviations ASAP vs. STAT17, Equal Standard Deviations For samples with 90 5
Equal Population
Standard
Deviations
ASAP vs. STAT17, Equal Standard Deviations
For
samples with
90
5
ASAP, Mean of B-basis
4.5
80
Stat17, Mean of B-basis
equal
variances, ASAP
4
ASAP, Std Dev of B-basis
70
Stat17, Std
Dev of B-basis
3.5
will
provide
basis
60
3
50
values that
are
higher
2.5
40
2
30
than STAT-17 and
1.5
20
1
those
basis
values will
10
0.5
0
0
have
less
fluctuation
CTD
RTD
ETD
ETW
due to random
CTD
RTD
ETD
ETW
differences
between
Mean
80
80
80
80
samples.
Stdev
8
8
8
8
n
30
30
30
30
September 14-16, 2010
Value of Mean
Value of Standard Deviation
Conclusions Standard deviations can be very unstable when sample size is small (<30); resulting in
Conclusions
Standard deviations
can be very unstable when sample size is
small
(<30);
resulting in very
erratic basis
values, unless
pooling method is
used
Basis values are
not material
properties
they are not fixed
values
because they depend on the number of
specimens you
test
(i.e. how big your budget is)
If you test
more specimens,
chances are,
you will get a
higher basis value
Basis values will vary each time
you repeat the
program
Don’t be surprised if you
get a different number
each time
(because you
should
get a different
number each
time)
Pooling
across environment (ASAP) will typically produce higher and
more
stable basis values;
but it
has more stipulations
Single point (STAT-17)
is more flexible because it
can handle datasets with
batch-to-batch variability,
unequal
variances across environment,
and
various
distributions; but it sometimes may produce basis values
that seem
illogical
to engineers
Therefore,
CMH-17 gives preference to ASAP.
STAT-17
is used when ASAP
cannot be used.
September 14-16, 2010