Beruflich Dokumente
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19 November 2018 (Ottawa ON) – The BC NDP and the BC Liberals find themselves in a statistical
tie in the upcoming provincial by-election in Nanaimo.
Also, Jagmeet Singh and Maxime Bernier would lose in their respective ridings if an election were
held today.
Those are the findings from three polls in the federal ridings of Beauce and Burnaby South and the
provincial riding of Nanaimo.
“The upcoming by-election in Nanaimo is important for both parties as it could let the Liberals take
the lead in the seat count in the BC legislature,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet
Research. “When asking Nanaimo residents what party they would vote for, the NDP lead by eight,
but they are virtually tied when Nanaimo residents were asked about what candidate they would
vote for.”
Among decided and leaning voters, Sheila Malcolmson of the NDP has 39.8%, while Tony Harris of
the BC Liberals has 38.2%.
In Beauce, recently nominated candidate Richard Lehoux of the Conservatives has 37.9% support,
while Bernier has 34.7% support among decided and leaning voters.
“Bernier narrows the gap when we ask Beauce residents which candidates they would vote for,”
continued Maggi. “But there is no mistake that Bernier would be in trouble if the election were held
today.
Finally, 35.9% of decided and leaning voters in Burnaby South said that they would vote Liberal in
the upcoming by-election, while 29.3% said that they would vote Conservative. 27.2% said that they
would vote NDP.
“Given these numbers, it is suprising to see the NDP clamour for a by-election”, concluded Maggi.
In ridings were parties have not nominated candidates for the next election, respondents were
asked about the candidates that were fielded in the previous election. In the case of Burnaby South,
no question about local candidates was asked as Singh is so far the only nominated candidate in the
upcoming by-election.
The sample sizes and margins of error, in all cases, accurate 19 times out of 20, for each survey are
as follows: Beauce: n=616, +/- 3.95%, Burnaby South: n=366, +/- 5.12%, Nanaimo: n=594, +/- 4.02%
-30-
2.4%
5%
7.7%
41.4%
7.7%
41.4%
44.7%
3.7% All Voters
3.7% All Voters Decided and Leaning Voters
37.5%
31.4%
31.4%
All Voters
NDP BC Liberals Greens BC Conservatives
NDP BC Liberals Greens BC Conservatives NDP BC Liberals Greens BC Conservatives
Another Party Undecided
9.3%
4.1% 37%
8.4%
35.4%
38.2%
35.4%
27.8%
32.9%
32.9% 4.9%
4.5%
36.8%
4.1%
4.1%
4% 5.2%
4% 4.8%
4.8%
Liberals Conservatives New Democratic Party Bloc Quebecois Greens People's Party
iberals Conservatives New Democratic Party Bloc Quebecois Greens Liberals
People's Party
Conservatives New Democratic Party Bloc Quebecois Greens People's Par
Another Party Undecided
Another Party Undecided Another Party
All Voters
Voters Decided and Leaning Voters
Beauce - Local Candidates
10.4% 11.9% 1.8%
10.4% 11.9% 13.8%
1.4%
1.4%
34.7%
All Voters
All Voters Decided and Leaning Voters
31.5%
31.5% 34.2%
34.2%
37.9%
2%
1.6% 4.4%
1.6% 4% 5%
5.5%
4% 5%
28.4%
0.4%
0.9%
4.7%
All Voters
21.3%
23.5%
20.8%
35.9%
28.4%
27.2%
0.4%
0.9%
Decided and Leaning Voters
4.7%
All Voters
21.3%
23.5%
29.3%
Liberals Conservatives New Democratic Party Greens People's Party Another Party
Undecided
Liberals Conservatives New Democratic Party Greens People's Party Another Party
Breakout Tables
Beauce
If a federal election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Liberals led by Justin Trudeau 15.8% 14.8% 16.8% 18.7% 9.4% 14.5% 21.3%
Conservatives led by Andrew Scheer 32.9% 33.6% 32.3% 28.8% 38.9% 33.3% 30.2%
NDP led by Jagmeet Singh 4.8% 6% 3.6% 5.1% 1.5% 6.3% 5.8%
Bloc led by Mario Beaulieu 4% 3.6% 4.4% 3.4% 1.5% 5.2% 5.8%
Green Party led by Elizabeth May 4.1% 3.2% 4.9% 11.9% 1.5% 1.7% 2.3%
People's Party led by Maxime Bernier 24.8% 28.4% 21.4% 18.6% 35.4% 25.5% 18.7%
Another Party 1.6% 0.9% 2.3% - 1.5% 1.2% 3.9%
Undecided 12% 9.5% 14.3% 13.5% 10.2% 12.3% 12%
Unweighted Frequency 616 233 383 24 114 219 259
Weighted Frequency 616 298 318 138 149 183 145
This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any
third-party organization.
The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various commercial available sources. Respondents were dialed
at random.
At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.
The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.
The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.
The sample sizes and margins of error, in all cases, accurate 19 times out of 20, for each
survey are as follows: Beauce: n=616, +/- 3.95%, Burnaby South: n=366, +/- 5.12%, Nanaimo:
n=594, +/- 4.02%. Margins of error are higher in each subsamples.
In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.