The impact of Brexit on jobs across the UK

According to the article written by professor Bernard Fingleton, no one knows exactly
what the impact will be of Brexit on jobs across the UK’s regions. However, the economic
modelling that he had carried out provides us with significant findings.

The professor said in his article that “Employment in a region depends on its inherent
characteristics, such as its industrial structure, socio-economic characteristics and
environmental attributes. It also depends on the quantity of goods and services produced,
capital invested, and the level of demand for goods and services from other regions”.

The impact of Brexit on jobs can be predicted by comparing two scenarios: one where
Brexit has no effect and one where it will reduce inter-regional trade.

This impact assumes that the trade between EU and UK regions only falls by 2%, but if
this percent can produce an appreciable job shortfall, then we can assure that a larger
and more realistic percentage will have a correspondingly larger impact on the job
shortfall.

Job shortfall is not the same as job loss. It measures the jobs that would be needed to
generate to make up for any Brexit effect. The professor gives an example that by 2025
assuming a 2% reduction in UK-EU inter-regional trade, the job shortfall for Greater
Manchester is predicted to be 0.6%, which amounts to 5,800 jobs fewer than would
otherwise be the case with no Brexit effect. For Inner London, the corresponding figures
are 1.7% and 66,500 job shortfalls, This impact affects not only Great Britain but it also
affects Ireland being this country the worst-affected EU region. The job shortfall predicted
for the southern and eastern region of Ireland is approximately 1%, on a par with the
second-worst UK region, which is outer London.

Conclusion

By reading this article I could understand more about what the consequences of Brexit
are, although these were only assumptions I could see why most of the famous UK people
were against Brexit, this event affects not only the UK but all the countries that trade with
Great Britain, you can see that it will be a lot of job shortfalls and that British people would
need to generate more jobs to make up for any Brexit effect.

Opinion

In my own opinion I was against Brexit, mostly because I saw on the news that it could
be worse for the British people, and in fact it was way worse, according to the British Bank
the job loss in 2018 could get up to 5.5% and the specific number of unemployed people
would be up to 250,000, the assumptions made by the professor were right. I hope that
one day Britain becomes part of the UK again to see if that could improve the jobs and
the economy of all the countries affected by Brexit

References

Fingleton, Bernard. (2018). The impact of Brexit on jobs across the UK. September 17th
2018, de The UK in a changing Europe web site: http://ukandeu.ac.uk/the-impact-of-
brexit-on-jobs-across-the-uk/