50TH ESREDA SEMINAR ON 25 YEARS OF

ESREDA SEMINARS

European Safety, Reliability & Data Association

PROCEEDINGS
SAFETY AND RELIABILITY ENHANCEMENT THROUGHOUT
EUROPE: LOOKING BACK, LOOKING AHEAD

MAY 18TH -19TH 2016, UNIVERSITY OF SEVILLE, SPAIN

FOREWORD

This is the 50th ESReDA seminar on RAMS related topic. As it conducts 2 seminars per
year, it implies it has conducted seminars for 25 years. World has changed a lot in the
past 25 years. It is an exceptional opportunity to review the status of reliability and
safety engineering disciplines by comparing the past learnings to today ones in order
to predict the trends of the future.

EU gathered experts will perform a critical review of the progress in system reliability
and safety, risk assessment methodologies, investigation and probing methods, safe/
stable operation of assets, lifetime prediction methods, cyber security, data acquisition
and management, big data concepts, complex infrastructure and connectivity and so
forth. The world has moved from paper based engineering to paperless engineering.
The impact of the computerization on engineering field has its own effect. It has been
roller coaster ride in the past 25 years with growing complexity trends with dynamic
market conditions and the shift of manufacturing sites. There has been intensive
change in the projects implementation and asset life cycle management. Engineering
systems are more complex, distributed, smart, communicating, active and proactive.
New challenges and opportunities are continually surfacing due to the dramatic
market conditions, development in technology and the modern society ever growing
consumption of communication, energy and raw materials. It increases the
vulnerability and impacts the products introduced in the market influences the
evolution of modern societies.

The purpose of the seminar is to gather researchers, experts and engineers from
industry and academia to identify what has been tried and tested, what ought to be
tried, what developments are still needed and what new challenges are.

The European Safety, Reliability and Data Association (ESReDA) is one of the most
active EUnetworks in the field of RAMS engineering and very actively promoting the
methodologies and state of the art rules on these subjects. The 50th seminar will
provide an ideal platform for both experienced and young experts for discussion on
the topics of RAMS. It will also be the time to celebrate 25 years of ESReDA Seminars.
50TH ESREDA SEMINAR ON 25 YEARS OF
ESREDA SEMINARS

European Safety, Reliability & Data Association

PROGRAM
Wednesday May 18th 2016. Seminar Day 1
Conference Room SALON de GRADOS (2nd Floor)

08:30 - 09:00 Registrations for the Seminar

09:00 - 09:10 Introduction by Dr Luis Ferreria, Esreda President
09:10 - 09:30 Welcome address by Jaime Dominguez, Director of ESI
09:30 - 10:00 Special address by D. Claudio Rodriguez. General Director of
Infrastructures. ENAGAS (Spain)
10:00 - 11:10 Panel I: Past 25 years of RAMS and Esreda Seminars.
Panellist : Henrik Kortner, Cyp Vanrijn , Henk Wels, Claude
Degrave, Session Chair: Mohammad Raza

11:10 - 11:30 Coffee break

11:30 - 12:45 Panel II : Future 25 years of RAMS ;
Panellist : Mohamed Eid, Adolfo Crespo, Andre Lannoy, Antonio
José Fernandez, Javier Larrañeta, Session Chair: Luis Ferreira

12:45 - 14:00 Lunch break

14:00 - 15:40 Session 1
1Transformational Phenomena as Predictors of Aircraft
Accidents: What Goes Around Comes Around
Brian E. Smith, NASA Ames Research Center;
Rudi den Hertog, Netherlands Aircraft Company;
Alfred Roelen, Netherlands Aerospace Centre NLR

2Methodology for continuous best practice application in

maintenance departments
María del Carmen Carnero. University of Castilla-La Mancha and
University of Lisbon,
Antonio Sola. University of Seville
 3Seismic risk assessment of nuclear power plants: a
combination of engineering judgment, legacy design
calculations and state-of-the-art numerical simulation
Manuel Pellissetti. AREVA Gmbh – Erlangen, Germany

4Practical application of criticality analysis in a regasification

plant
Javier Serra. ENAGAS, Spain,
Adolfo Crespo. University of Seville, Spain

15:40 - 16:00 Coffee break

16:00 - 17:20 Session 2
1Supply chain vulnerability and resilience – case study of
footwear retail distribution network
Tomasz Nowakowski,
Agnieszka Tubis,
Sylwia Werbińska-Wojciechowska
Wroclaw University of Technology, Wroclaw, Poland

2Modelling Software Failures of Digital I&C in Probabilistic

Safety Analyses
Mariana Jockenhövel-Barttfeld,
Andre Taurines,
Yousef Abusharkh
AREVA gmbh – Erlangen, Germany

3Assessment of risks and uncertainties for concepts during

early-phase design of public investment-projects –
Outlining the concept of Reversed LCC as a basis for a
generalized framework for infrastructure assets
Erling Salicath University of Stavanger, Norway
Vicente González-Prida University of Seville, Spain,
Antonio Guillén University of Seville, Spain
Jayakumar Shambhu, University of Stavanger, Norway.
Adolfo Crespo University of Seville, Spain

17:30 - 18:30 GA & elections – For Esreda Members

19:00 - 20:30 City walk organised by Seminar Committee

20:30 - 22:00 Gala Dinner in Seville

Oriza Restaurant (San Fernando Street 41)
 Thursday May 19th 2016. Seminar Day 2
Conference Room SALON de GRADOS (2nd Floor)

09:00 - 10:10 Panel III: Single Case or big data? Past and future in accident
prevention and learning
Panellist: John Stoop, Tuuli Tulonen, Nicolas Dechy, Session Chair:
Andre Lannoy

10:10 - 10:30 Coffee break

10:30 - 12:20 Session 3
1The impact of system conditions on tramway safety
F.J. Restel,
L. Wolniewicz
Wroclaw University of Technology, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering

2Change Point Technique Application for a Wind Turbine

Malfunction Detection System
Miguel A. Rodríguez, Iberdrola Ingeniería y Construcción, SAU
Luis M. López, Universidad de La Rioja
Nuria López, Iberdrola Ingeniería y Construcción, SAU
Ángel Marín Iberdrola Ingeniería y Construcción, SAU
Antonio J. Fernández Iberdrola Ingeniería y Construcción, SAU

3Complex Engineering Assets Criticality Analysis for

Maintenance Purposes
Khairy Kobbacy . University of Taibah, Madinah. Saudi Arabia. MM
BinLadin Chair of Operations and Maintenance
Adolfo Crespo. University of Seville. Department of Industrial
Management, School of Engineering
Antonio Sola. University of Seville. Department of Industrial
Management, School of Engineering
Pedro Moreu University of Seville. Department of Industrial
Management, School of Engineering
Samir Shariff. University of Taibah, Madinah. Saudi Arabia. MM BinLadin
Chair of Operations and Maintenance
Juan Gomez. University of Seville. Department of Industrial
Management, School of Engineering

12:20 - 13:30 Lunch break

13:30 - 15:10 Session 4
1Do experts agree when assessing risks? An empirical study
Nektarios Karanikas
Steffen Kaspers
Amsterdam University of Applied Sciences / Aviation Academy. The
Netherlands
 2ZEDB - A Data Base of Nuclear Power Plant Operating
Experience of German Design
G. Becker, RISA
Y. Abusharkh, AREVA

3Building Maintenance Optimización: Current Gaps and

future opportunities Survivability Framework in Network
Utilities: A background and practical view
Samir Shariff
Khairy Kobbacy.
MM BinLadin Chair in Operations and Maintenance Technology.Taibah
University, Madinah, Saudi Arabia

4PSA driven Safety Improvements of Nuclear Power Plants

Jörg Blombach, Herzogenaurach, Germany
Hermann Fabian, Erlangen, Germany

15:10 - 15:30 Coffee break

15:30 - 17:30 Session 5
1Risk management, safety and dependability: looking back
from 1990 to 2015, Which future?
André Lannoy. Institut pour la Maîtrise des Risques.France

2Increase MTBF Indicator of Offshore Equipment by

applying new technologies in order to increase Availability
and Reliability
Mr. Abbas Ahmad Zadeh , PMO
Mr. Mohammad Ali Rahbari, PMO
Mr. Dezhangah. Consulting Engineers Group

3Notion of a Dynamic Criticality Concept Adapted to Risk

Demanded Conditions
Joel Adams. University of Cambridge, UK
Vicente González-Prida. University of Seville, Spain
Jayakumar Shambhu. University of Stavanger, Norway
Adolfo Crespo. University of Seville, Spain