Running Head: INTELLIGENCE-LED POLICING: REDUCING CRIME IN HEALDSBURG 1

Intelligence-Led Policing:

Reducing Crime in Healdsburg

Matt Jenkins

University of San Diego

INTELLIGENCE-LED POLICING: REDUCING CRIME IN HEALDSBURG 2

Introduction

Crime is complex. There is no formula that social scientists can point to that lead a

person to commit crime; no single crime control strategy will prevent crime from occurring. In

combatting complex crime problems, law enforcement agencies across the United States have

used various methods to attempt to reduce crime, including targeted patrols, community-

oriented, and problem-oriented policing. Drawing from each of these strategies, agencies have

turned to intelligence-led policing (Bureau of Justice Statistics, 2008). Intelligence-led policing

incorporates the tenants of command and control, community policing, problem-solving

policing, and data analysis (Guidetti and Martinelli, 2009). Taking information about crimes,

intelligence-led policing applies meaningful analysis that can help to determine crime trends and

prevention strategies.

Intelligence-led policing can work for all agencies, regardless of the size. To be

implemented and work properly, the needs of the individual agency must be considered

(Peterson, 2005). The ability of staff, budget availability, and technology access must all be

considered before an intelligence-led policing strategy is pursued. Even when these resources

are limited, intelligence-led decisions can prevent decisions based on incomplete, inaccurate or

misdirected information. If Healdsburg is to successfully address its biggest crime problem,

larceny-theft, it should rely on intelligence, not just information.

Understanding the Crime Problem: A Look at Crime Data

Before intelligence-led policing can be effective, law enforcement administrators must

have a solid understanding of the crime problems to be solved. The Uniform Crime Reports

(UCR) and National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) serve as official crime data sources
INTELLIGENCE-LED POLICING: REDUCING CRIME IN HEALDSBURG 3

that agencies can use to glean information. These sources have identified larceny-theft as the

single most common crime problem in Healdsburg, and a careful analysis of the data provides a

basis for informed decisions about intelligence-led policing strategies.

UCR data from 1985 through 2014 shows that residents of Healdsburg are most likely to

be victims of property-related crime. Property crime, which includes motor vehicle theft,

larceny-theft, and burglary, remains Healdsburg’s most significant crime-related issue,

representing 92 percent of all reportable crime, with larceny-theft accounting for the most crime

in Healdsburg. Since 1985, larceny-theft has mean of 63 percent of Healdsburg’s overall crime

rate, peaking at 74 percent in 1991 and bottoming out at 51 percent in 2003. The median and

mode during the same time was 64 percent.

Table 1
Summary of City of Healdsburg UCR Data
Crime Rates
Larceny Theft as Percent of
Year Violent Property Larceny-theft
Overall Crime
1985 525.4 4778.6 3552.7 67%
1986 843.4 4762.5 3410.6 61%
1987 390.6 4995.3 3574.8 66%
1988 636.3 5159.6 3632.6 63%
1989 656 5149.8 3968.9 68%
1990 506.9 4013.1 2999.3 66%
1991 465.5 5183.1 4200.3 74%
1992 417.5 5549.9 4226.1 71%
1993 314.9 5867.5 4188.1 68%
1994 416.9 4919.7 3012.3 56%
1995 402.1 5575.5 3814.8 64%
1996 333.9 4652.7 2918.7 59%
INTELLIGENCE-LED POLICING: REDUCING CRIME IN HEALDSBURG 4

1997 361.8 4692.5 3160.2 63%

1998 200.7 3543.1 2388.8 64%
1999 277.1 3364.7 2058.4 57%
2000 261.1 2676.7 1576.2 54%
2001 348 2930.1 1703.1 52%
2002 224.9 3139.6 1898.2 56%
2003 338.8 3352.1 1898.9 51%
2004 247.4 3579 1970.7 52%
2005 196.4 3400.6 1856.5 52%
2006 188.3 2242 1551.4 64%
2007 173.4 2546.8 1926.1 71%
2008 229.1 2474.1 1759.4 65%
2009 145.9 2607.6 1969.4 72%
2010 142.2 2514.7 2008.2 76%
2011 123 2125.4 1642.4 73%
2012 157.1 2365.2 1649.5 65%
2013 217.7 2055.2 1576.2 69%
2014 164.2 2057.2 1495.4 67%

Mean 63%
Median 64%
Mode 64%
Crime rate per 100,000 residents
Source: Uniform Crime Reporting Statistics - UCR Data Online

The continual downward trend in the same period has resulted in a 138 percent decrease

in the larceny-theft rate. It is important to note that the UCR is limited in its ability to provide an

accurate assessment of crime as it only captures crimes that are officially reported by law

enforcement jurisdictions and do not include incidents not reported to or documented by police

departments – the dark numbers of crime.

INTELLIGENCE-LED POLICING: REDUCING CRIME IN HEALDSBURG 5

The NCVS is the most comprehensive crime victimization survey in the United States

and helps reveal the dark numbers of crime, using data derived from the NCVS helps develop a

greater understanding of Healdsburg’s property crime issue. Although no direct data is available

for the City of Healdsburg, a nationally representative sample should allow for trend

comparisons to derive a greater understanding of victimization in Healdsburg. Compiling data

from the NCVS shows that in 2010, 125.4 homes per 1,000 were victimized by property-related

crime. Using 2010 U.S. Census data, there were 4,378 households in Healdsburg, meaning there

were 549 incidents of property-related crime. UCR data for 2010 shows 283 reported incidents

of property related crime, which means only 52 percent of crime was captured by UCR reports in

2011. While this percentage is higher than the 2010 national rate of 39 percent reporting

incidents to police, UCR data includes reports from business establishments and homeless, both

of which are excluded from NCVS reporting. Drawing from the information that can be gleaned

from the NCVS and presented in Table 2, it is plausible that the number of property-related

crimes is nearly three times what is captured in UCR data.

Table 2
NVCS Respondents Reporting of Incidents to Police

Percent
Yes, reported to No, did not report to the
Year Do not know Reported to
the police police
Police
1993 11162828 23625634 283166 32%
1994 11042335 22913434 326361 32%
1995 10277660 21389544 335571 32%
1996 10016606 19401793 278686 34%
1997 9283499 18197254 279269 33%
1998 8363304 16366377 223392 34%
INTELLIGENCE-LED POLICING: REDUCING CRIME IN HEALDSBURG 6

1999 7448411 14894155 209716 33%

2000 7114338 13345709 155596 35%
2001 7018876 12232866 173192 36%
2002 7225121 11117024 159566 39%
2003 7431295 12148148 195560 38%
2004 7602218 11574472 203784 39%
2005 7232166 11229431 174975 39%
2006 7577712 12109638 217785 38%
2007 6864339 11387531 242441 37%
2008 6952099 10114474 199207 40%
2009 6231611 9867710 104918 38%
2010 6042289 9256407 93538 39%
2011 6292302 10596009 131106 37%

Policing Healdsburg Intelligently

Intelligence-led policing is the next step in creating a safer community. The information

available from the UCR and NCVS points to larceny-theft as the most significant crime issue in

Healdsburg; however, neither provide information about how to reduce or eliminate the crime

problem. By using the available information and analyzing it, law enforcement leaders can make

“informed decisions to address the agency priorities. These priorities can include issues such as

crime prevention, crime reduction, case management, resource allocation, case clearance,

anticipation of future threats, or crime problems” (Bureau of Justice Assistance, 2009). Because

of its size and limited budget, Healdsburg is not able to have an intelligence analyst for

intelligence officer; however, that should not create a roadblock to integrating intelligence-led

policing efforts into the culture and core mission of the department.
INTELLIGENCE-LED POLICING: REDUCING CRIME IN HEALDSBURG 7

Since the early 2000’s, the Healdsburg Police Department has practiced Community

Oriented Policing. The department website emphasizes that community policing is a large part

of the patrol function and that officers employ the problem-solving process. Officers are

encouraged to get out of patrol vehicles, walk assigned beats, and to talk to the community.

Community-oriented policing is a foundation to intelligence-led policing, and the efforts of the

Healdsburg Police Department in community-oriented policing begin to set a cultural foundation

for intelligence-led policing in the department. Unfortunately, aside from a community-oriented

policing philosophy, the Healdsburg Police Department fails in all other aspects of intelligence-

led policing. Information gathered through community-oriented policing and other means is

generally left as information; no thoughtful analysis is conducted to address a larger problem.

With limited staffing resources to implement intelligence-led policing, technology has the

potential to truly begin Healdsburg’s intelligence-led policing efforts. The department currently

has several technology platforms available as starting points to intelligence-led policing,

including a robust CAD/RMS system that provides for hot-spot analysis and data-sharing with

other some of the other area agencies, and a subscription to Crime Reports (Command Central)

without the analytics component. Both of these platforms, if used properly, can be used to

mitigate the larceny-theft problem in Healdsburg.

As demonstrated in Motorola Solutions webinar on Command Central, layering

information can provide for valuable analysis that can lead to significant investigative leads

(Seals, 2015). In Healdsburg's case, available larceny-theft crime instances could be layered

with security camera locations, providing officers and investigators with valuable information

which could then be analyzed. Healdsburg can accomplish this task today if it were to

implement a security camera registry program. Simple steps, such as business contracts and
INTELLIGENCE-LED POLICING: REDUCING CRIME IN HEALDSBURG 8

social media outreach, directing both businesses and individuals to an online form would achieve

the missing element – the location of cameras.

Risk management expert Gordon Graham is known for saying, "Predictable is

preventable." While Graham is talking about liability and civil lawsuits, the same mantra should

be applied to crime problems – if crime can be predicted, it can be prevented (or at least the

suspect arrested). Using information held within the computer-aided dispatch and records

management system, personnel can analyze trends related to the date, time, and location of

occurrences. From this, patrols could be directed to appropriate locations at appropriate times.

Beyond technology, the Healdsburg Police Department can establish intelligence

operations through four basic steps identified in the Bureau of Justice Assistance’s 2005 report

on Intelligence Lead Policing. Healdsburg would be classified as a level 3 agency, and to create

its intelligence function it could:

1. Establish a mission statement and policies to address developing and sharing information

and intelligence within the agency.

2. Connect to the state criminal justice network and regional intelligence databases and

participate in information sharing initiatives.

3. Ensure privacy policies are protected by policies and practices.

To expand the capabilities, the department could designate a person as the agency contact for

intelligence, thereby streamlining, information sharing, and intelligence interpretation. Doing so

would take Healdsburg to a level 3 agency since it already participates in a regional intelligence

center.
INTELLIGENCE-LED POLICING: REDUCING CRIME IN HEALDSBURG 9

Healdsburg is not the first jurisdiction to suffer at the hands of thieves. Erlanger,

Kentucky, a quiet suburban community in northern Kentucky, experienced a series of thefts with

no detectable pattern. The problem in identifying a trend was none of the surrounding agencies

worked together or shared information. It was not until after some of the stolen goods turned up

at a local recycling center that the multi-jurisdictional case evolved and a suspect identified.

Today, Erlanger PD has measures in place to share information with local agencies that would

detect and stop the crime trend immediately (Fields and Castor, 2011). This form of active

collaboration and information sharing is a force multiplier and an effective strategy to leverage

resources not otherwise available (Bureau of Justice Assistance, 2009). For Healdsburg to

replicate these results, the department would have to connect to additional local intelligence

databases and work more closely with allied agencies.

Intelligence-led Policing Program Efficacy and Evaluation

Changing policing philosophies requires a shift in how policing effectiveness is

measured. Reductions in violent crimes, faster response times, and the number of arrests have

traditionally been used to measure a police department’s effectiveness (Alpert, Flynn, and

Piquero, 2001). Measuring a police department’s success based on these raw statistics is easy –

each year should see a reduction in each crime category, response times should decrease, and the

number arrests should go up.

Today, modern law enforcement organizations are implementing new crime fighting

strategies under the mantra of intelligence-led policing. These strategies incorporate the tenants

of command and control, community policing, problem-solving policing, and data analysis

(Guidetti and Martinelli, 2009). With long-term viability of intelligence-led policing strategies

within an organization dependent on the commitment of an agency's chief executive, it is

INTELLIGENCE-LED POLICING: REDUCING CRIME IN HEALDSBURG 10

imperative that the program success is measurable. Data trends from Uniform Crime Report

(UCR) statistics fail to capture if these strategies are having a positive effect on the community.

Each strategy should be individually considered and evaluated for performance measures that

would provide valuable insight to law enforcement administrators about the efficacy of the

program.

Given that Healdsburg's most significant crime-related issue is larceny-theft, three

intelligence-led policing strategies have been suggested as programs to help combat the crime

problem. One program, community-oriented policing, is already in place; whereas, two other

programs would need to be implemented – security camera registration and hot-spot analysis.

Community Oriented Policing

The Healdsburg Police Department has operated under a community-oriented policing

philosophy since the early 2000s. UCR data since that time shows an overall decline in all crime

categories. Figure 1 details property crime rates in Healdsburg from 1985 through 2014. Even

with the decline in the crime rate, no evidence exists to suggest that the reduction was influenced

by community policing efforts. The evaluation of community-oriented policing effectiveness

“begins with establishing goals and objectives during the initial problem-solving stages” (Alpert,

Flynn, and Piquero, 2001). A unique action plan is developed with a series of strategies,

objectives, and desired outcomes. The outcomes are tracked and become a measurable

benchmark for success. Additionally, success can be measured by the number of times each

objective was performed.

INTELLIGENCE-LED POLICING: REDUCING CRIME IN HEALDSBURG 11

Figure 1
Property Crime Rates in Healdsburg

Under the current community-oriented policing philosophy, the Healdsburg Police

Department does not establish goals and objectives. Rather, the focus is on developing

partnerships with stakeholders in the community. The department has engaged in over 30

community relations events in each of the past three years in efforts to build support and trust in

the community. In February and March 2018, the City of Healdsburg engaged FM3 Research to

conduct a public opinion survey about City services and matters of interest to the public. Two

questions asked respondents about their satisfaction with the police department, and 92 percent

respondents answered that they were satisfied with the level of police services (City of

Healdsburg, 2018). This data suggests that the police department is doing well at creating

partnerships with the community; however, for it to serve as a foundation piece of intelligence-

led policing, the department will need to use the partnerships to gain information and develop

intelligence to combat crime.

INTELLIGENCE-LED POLICING: REDUCING CRIME IN HEALDSBURG 12

Hot-Spot Analysis

If crime could be predicted, it could possibly be prevented. Crime analysis is “the

process of identifying patterns and relationships between crime data and other relevant data

sources to prioritize and target police activity” (Cope, 2004). Hot-spot analysis can help direct

law enforcement resources to the areas where crime is being committed based on time of day and

type of crime. Research over the past two decades has suggested that police can be effective in

addressing crimes when they focus on specified geographic locations with high crime rates

(Center for Evidence-Based Crime Policy, n.d.). The effectiveness of the analysis is contingent

upon the quality of the data that is obtained by initial responding officers and the information

that is input to the system.

Research by Braga et al. (1999) found that the total number of crime instances and calls

for service were reduced when patrols were conducted after hot spot analysis. Property crime

saw significant decreases in the identified areas, and there was no evidence that property crimes

were displaced to other areas as a result of the directed patrols. Additional research by Weisburd

in two major metropolitan cities found that crime can significantly decrease as a result of hot-

spot patrols (National Institute of Justice, 2009).

The Healdsburg Police Department has the necessary technology in place to implement

hot spot analysis. Additionally, officers have a significant amount of proactive patrol time

available, which would allow the officers to use hot-spot mapping to direct patrol patterns to the

area of the City most affected by crime. To implement hot-spot analysis, the missing element is

training officers in how to use the technology to conduct the analysis.

INTELLIGENCE-LED POLICING: REDUCING CRIME IN HEALDSBURG 13

Camera Registration Program

Leveraging private camera systems installed at residences and businesses, security

camera registration programs look to give law enforcement the upper hand in combating crimes.

Under the voluntary registration programs, the camera system’s owner registers with the local

law enforcement agency and agrees to share footage with law enforcement officials as they

investigate crimes (Fagan, 2017). These programs are gaining in popularity since they cost

agencies very little money while providing valuable information when crimes occur.

Since the programs have only been in existence for a short time, there is no direct

research on their effectiveness. However, research has been conducted on cameras systems

installed in public places and used by law enforcement for years. Research at Syracuse

University (Dowty, 2013) found cameras had limited effect on crime rates, largely due to how

different criminals act. There is promise in a surveillance camera’s ability to impact property

crime. In the City of San Francisco, cameras were installed around the city under the City’s

Community Safety Camera program, and within 100 feet of camera locations, there was a 23

percent decrease in property crime levels that was driven by a decline in larceny-thefts (King,

Mulligan, and Raphael, 2008).

A camera registration program could have a significant impact on larceny-theft, and there

is a significant likelihood that residents would register cameras with the department, given the

support mentioned earlier that the police department has from the community. Using data from

both the UCR and the National Crime Victimization Survey, only 52 percent of crime was

captured by UCR reports in 2011. While this percentage is higher than the 2010 national rate of

39 percent reporting incidents to police, UCR data includes reports from business establishments

and homeless, both of which are excluded from NCVS reporting. The camera registry program
INTELLIGENCE-LED POLICING: REDUCING CRIME IN HEALDSBURG 14

has the potential to increase the under-reporting of larceny-thefts if the victim feels that there is a

greater likelihood that the offender will be caught.

Conclusion

Using intelligence-led policing strategies to address specific crime issues, agencies can

do more with less. Through a more comprehensive understanding of the crime problem, law

enforcement administrators can make informed decisions on enforcement tactics and crime

prevention strategies (Guidetti and Martinelli, 2009). Each of the programs presented has a

direct connection to Healdsburg’s most pressing crime problem, and each of the programs fits

within department operations and limitations. Furthermore, data supports that each of the

programs can individually have an impact on larceny-thefts, and with successful outcomes, law

enforcement executives are more apt to continue the program. As with all new programs, results

may not be immediate or come in the form expected. Intelligence-led policing “should

contribute to a reduction in crime and disorder, but this would not necessarily contribute to an

increase in arrests” (Carter and Phillips, n.d.). Consequently, relying on UCR crime data may be

insufficient to evaluate the efficacy of a program. Continual reduction of crime rates is not

possible, as crime will eventually level off. Desired goals and projected outcomes should be

established before program implementation, and the program should be evaluated based upon

achieving those goals and objectives. This analysis will provide law enforcement administrators

with a comprehensive understanding to make an informed decision about the continuation of a

program. The real measure of crime control is spotting emerging crime trends before there is an

opportunity for significant victimization (Sparrow, 2015). Proper implementation of

intelligence-led policing programs will enable the Healdsburg Police Department to be poised to

respond to an emerging and identified crime trend.

INTELLIGENCE-LED POLICING: REDUCING CRIME IN HEALDSBURG 15

The long-term viability of intelligence-led policing strategies within an organization is

dependent on the commitment of an agency’s chief executive. Provided that support, training to

all law enforcement officers becomes paramount, for “intelligence to be effective, it should

support an agency’s entire operation” (Peterson, 2005). Healdsburg has many of the elements

necessary already in place – support from the administration, budgetary resources, and

technological infrastructure. The time is now to add the missing element – provide training to all

law enforcement personnel to effectively use the resources available.

INTELLIGENCE-LED POLICING: REDUCING CRIME IN HEALDSBURG 16

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