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Mexico’s new leader Andrés Manuel López Obrador, left, and Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro © Sergio Lima/AFP/Getty Images;
Cesar Rodriguez/Bloomberg
The two leaders are part of the epochal changes that are sweeping Latin
America’s two biggest economies. Although from opposite ends of the
political spectrum, both are also throwbacks to an age of caudillos, or populist
strong men, that the region had seemingly left behind. Who though is the
bigger threat to liberal democracy? Almost certainly “peace and love” Mr
López Obrador rather than “lock ‘em up” Mr Bolsonaro.
That may sound provocative but it is only empirical. Mr López Obrador will
enjoy almost unconstrained power when he takes o�ce. His party has
majorities in the Senate and the Chamber. He has vast popular support,
dominates his cabinet, inherits a relatively healthy macroeconomy thereby
freeing him from immediate market pressures, and faces a feeble judiciary.
Mr Bolsonaro faces the exact opposite. He is hemmed in. His party has a
minority in both houses of Congress. He does not control state budgets. He
faces an aggressive press, a �ercely independent judiciary, is subject to more
market discipline given Brazil’s weak economy, and has appointed
heavyweight technocrats to his cabinet. Unlike Mr López Obrador, his
instincts seem to be to decentralise power, including independence for the
central bank.
None of this is to gloss over the potential for reactionary illiberalism from Mr
Bolsonaro. How he responds should protests erupt over painful economic
reforms is vital. Yet if Mr Bolsonaro goes too far astray, Brazilian institutions
such as markets, media and the military will hold him to account. His
problem is a lack of political power, not a surfeit.
johnpaul.rathbone@ft.com
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