Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
5
National Bank of Ethiopia
6
National Bank of Ethiopia
GDP By Sector
In terms of sector development, production which went down from 10
agriculture grew just by 4.9 percent in to 5 percent. Crop production
2011/12 compared to 9 percent growth constituted the largest share in GDP,
recorded in the previous year mainly about 30 percent.
due to lower increase in crop
7
National Bank of Ethiopia
8
National Bank of Ethiopia
(Annual %
Change) 0.5 5.7 5.3 7.2 4.9 14.3 8.0 9.0
9
National Bank of Ethiopia
Table: 1.3: Expenditure on GDP and Gross Domestic Savings (As Percentage of GDP)
1999/00 110.4 88.2 19.1 69.1 22.2 (12.0) 12.1 24.2 11.8
2000/01 110.5 86.9 15.7 71.2 23.6 (11.8) 12.1 23.9 13.1
2001/02 117.1 90.7 15.9 74.8 26.4 (14.1) 12.7 26.9 9.3
2002/03 116.7 92.4 14.3 78.1 24.3 (14.2) 13.5 27.7 7.6
2003/04 113.9 84.9 14.0 70.9 29.0 (16.8) 15.1 31.9 15.1
2004/05 116.6 90.6 13.3 77.3 26.0 (20.6) 15.3 35.8 9.5
2005/06 119.4 91.8 13.1 78.7 27.6 (22.9) 14.0 36.9 8.3
2006/07 111.8 87.6 11.2 76.4 24.2 (19.5) 12.8 32.4 12.4
2007/08 115.3 90.8 10.5 80.3 24.5 (19.6) 11.5 31.1 9.2
2008/09 115.1 90.2 9.5 80.7 24.9 (18.4) 10.6 29.0 9.8
2009/10 117.7 90.7 9.2 81.5 27.0 (19.6) 13.8 33.3 9.3
2010/11 115.1 87.3 8.6 78.6 27.9 (15.1) 17.0 32.1 12.7
2011/12 118.1 85.0 7.2 77.8 33.1 (18.1) 13.9 32.0 15.0
Average 115.2 89.0 12.4 76.6 26.2 (17.1) 13.4 30.6 11.0
Source: Ministry of Finance and Economic Development (MoFED)
10
National Bank of Ethiopia
Table: 1.4 Numbers, Amount of Credit and Jobs Created through MSEs
(Credit in Millions of Birr)
Percentage
2011/12 2012/13 Change
A B B/A
No of Total
employment 651,366.00 806,322.00 23.8
Source: FeMSEDA
11
National Bank of Ethiopia
Table: 1.5. Number, Amount of Credit and Jobs Created through MSEs by Region
Addis Benisha
Ababa Oromia SNNPR Amhara Tigray Diredawa Harari ngul Somale Gambela Afar Total
No.of MSEs 10,639.0 20,555.0 9,819.0 99,750.0 64,000.0 333.0 265.0 336.0 519.0 109.0 27.0 206,352.0
Amount of
credit 447,485.4 133,084.2 104,759.6 64,600.7 327,059.2 4,029.8 6,275.1 263 580.4 - - 108,813.7
No.of total
Employment
created by 99,899.0
MSEs 0 267,474.0 127,112.0 174,971.00 82,680.0 45,248.0 3,224.0 1,010.0 3,303.0 1,401.0 - 806,322.0
Regional share
Addis Diredaw Benish
Ababa Oromia SNNPR Amhara Tigray a Harari angul Somale Gambela Afar Total
Amount of
credit 41.1 12.2 9.6 5.9 30.1 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0
No. of total
Employment
created by
MSEs 12.4 33.2 15.8 21.7 10.3 5.6 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0
Source: FeMSEDA
12
National Bank of Ethiopia
Figure 1.2 Regional distribution of amount of credit and employment created during 2011/12
13
National Bank of Ethiopia
14
National Bank of Ethiopia
2010/11 2011/12
Change in
A B C D E F percentage point
Region Rural Urban Average Rural Urban Average D-A E-B F-C
Tigray 52.3 68.7 55.4 58.6 72.1 61.2 6.4 3.4 5.8
Amhara 52.0 66.0 53.4 60.8 70.7 61.8 8.8 4.7 8.4
Oromia 49.8 74.2 51.8 54.9 85.1 57.4 5.1 11.0 5.6
SNNPR 42.9 65.9 44.3 49.1 75.5 50.7 6.2 9.6 6.4
Afar 35.0 82.2 38.0 37.5 80.7 40.3 2.6 -1.5 2.3
Somali 36.1 74.7 41.6 56.1 77.4 59.2 20.0 2.7 17.6
Ben-Gumz 59.6 66.8 59.9 65.7 69.8 65.8 6.0 2.9 5.9
Harari 65.1 100.0 84.0 87.1 97.2 92.6 22.0 -2.8 8.6
Gambella 63.6 80.3 66.1 71.4 85.7 73.6 7.9 5.4 7.5
Dire Dawa 75.6 87.6 83.8 77.1 85.5 81.3 1.5 -2.1 -2.5
National
Average 48.9 74.6 52.1 55.2 78.7 58.3 6.4 4.1 6.1
Source: Ministry of Water Resources Development (MoWRD) and NBE Staff Computation
Note: Water supply access is calculated based on the provision of 20 liters/capita/day for urban and 15 l/c/d
for rural at a radius of 0.5 and 1.5 kilo meters, respectively.
*Based on 2010/11 assessment data
15
National Bank of Ethiopia Annual Bulletin
16
National Bank of Ethiopia Annual Bulletin
In 2011/12, the total stock of road In 2011/12 the total road network
network reached 63,083 km of which expanded by 16.8 percent (9.086Km)
24,550 km Federal1, 31,550 km rural compared to 10.67 expansions in
road and 6,983 are woreda road. The 2010/11.
Federal road includes 9,875km (40
Total woreda road network, which was
percent) asphalt and 14,675km (60
previously known as community road,
percent) gravel road, which showed
also increased significantly to 6,983km
annual expansion of 19.1 percent and 3.8
compared to 854 km in 2010/11 due to
percent respectively. Particularly, the
the government’s plan to integrate every
asphalt road net work in 2011/12
kebele to the main roads
constituted about 15.7 percent of the
total stock of road network in the
country.
1
Federal roads are administered by federal government
17
National Bank of Ethiopia Annual Bulletin
2006/07 5,452 8.99 14,628 2.215079 22,349 10.84 57,763.74 - 42,429 7.48
2007/08 6,066 11.26 14,363 -1.81159 23,930 7.07 70,038.10 - 44,359 4.55
2008/09 6,938 14.38 14,234 -0.89814 25,640 7.15 85,767.00 - 46,812 5.53
2009/10 7,476 7.75 14,373 0.976535 26,944 5.09 100,384.9 - 48,793 4.23
2010/11 8,295 10.96 14,136 -1.64893 30,712 13.98 - 854.00 53,997 10.67
-
2011/12 9,875 19.05 14,675 3.81296 31,550 2.73 6,983.00 63,083 16.83
Source: Ethiopian Road Authority (2011/12)
*Growth rate of community road (woreda road) is not calculated because since 2009/10 community road is
replaced by woreda road
** Total length does not include community road (woreda road) length till 2010/11 as it is non-
engineered road.
18
National Bank of Ethiopia Annual Bulletin
In the five year GTP period, the plan is The road density per 1000 population in
to increase the road density from 44.5 to 2011/12 was 0.75 km and registered 15.4
123.7 km per 1000 persons and from percent growth from the preceding fiscal
2
0.64 to 1.54 km per 1000 km . year (Table 1.8).
19
National Bank of Ethiopia Annual Bulletin
2
Access refers to the opportunity to use or the right to
or the ability to reach some destiny and often used to
analyze the level of population having access to all
weather roads. In fact, its benefit could be evaluated in
terms of reductions in monetary costs or time needed
by the given population to access markets or key
public social services like health and education.
20
National Bank of Ethiopia Annual Bulletin
21
National Bank of Ethiopia Annual Bulletin
Road Type 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
Federal road
2,848 2,886 5,037 8,124 9,813 13512 16989 21023.7
Regional road
222.9 471.2 395.2 671 624.2 1091.2 1768.7 1506.9
The government of Ethiopia views 85.4 and 52.1 percent from 85.3 and
education sector development as part of 49.4 percent respectively (Table
its long term vision in making the 1.10).primary school enrolment has
country a middle income economy. To reached 17 million of which 47.8
this end, it has devised and put in place percent were girls.
various strategies for the sector. It has
also increased the budget allocated every On the other hand, secondary
year to education sector to execute education enrolment stood at 1.8
development programs and planned million, 3 percent higher than last year.
activities (Table 1.10). Accordingly,
primary schools in urban and rural areas, In addition, by the end of 2011/12, the
increased to 29,482 in 2011/12 from number of secondary schools (9-12
28,349 in the preceding year. Net grades) reached 1,710 exhibiting a 12.7
primary school enrolment and percent annual growth.
completion, however, rose slightly to
22
National Bank of Ethiopia Annual Bulletin
23
National Bank of Ethiopia
Primary Education
Number of primary
schools (urban, rural) 23,354 25,212 26,951 28,349 29,482
Grades (1-4) gross enrolment ratio (%) 127.8 122.6 118.8 124 122.6
a. Girls' gross enrolment ratio (%) 122.8 118.4 114.3 119.1 118.1
b. Boys' gross enrolment ratio (%) 133 126.7 123.2 128.8 127
Grades (5-8) gross enrolment ratio (%) 60.2 63.1 65.5 66.1 65.6
a. Girls' gross enrolment ratio (%) 55.5 60.5 63.5 64.8 65.3
b. Boys' gross enrolment ratio (%) 64.8 65.6 67.4 67.4 65.9
Girls’ gross primary enrolment ratio (%) 90.5 90.7 101.6 93.2 92.9
Boys' gross primary enrolment ratio (%) 100.5 97.6 108.4 99.5 97.9
7. SNNPR NA
102.9 101 97.3 102.6
8. Gambella NA
121.4 112.5 125.1 132
24
National Bank of Ethiopia Annual Bulletin
Completion rate of primary school (%) 44.7 43.6 47.8 49.4 52.1
Grade 1-8(primary) repetition rates (%) 6.7 6.7 4.9 8.5 8.5
1st grade dropout rate (%) 18.3 22.9 28.1 19.9 25.0
Secondary Education
Gross enrolment rate in (9-10 grades)(%) 37.1 38.1 39.1 38.4 36.9
25
National Bank of Ethiopia Annual Bulletin
Universities 22 22 22 26 32
Pupil/teacher ratio
i. Grade (1-8) 57 54 51 51 50
iii. TEVT 25 34 NA 29 NA
Pupil/section ratio
i. Grade (1-8) 62 59 57 57 55
26
National Bank of Ethiopia Annual Bulletin
7. Pupil-textbook ratio
ii. Grade(9-12) 1 1 1 NA NA
Pupil-school ratio
Other Indicator
Source: - Education statistics annual abstract, Ministry of Education & NBE Staff Computation
27
National Bank of Ethiopia Annual Bulletin
Ethiopia has very large potential for The Ethiopian Electric Power
hydroelectric power and geothermal Corporation is a public enterprise
energy generation. Nine of its major mandated with the task of generating,
rivers are suitable for hydroelectric transmitting, distributing, and selling
power with a total capacity of electricity. The Corporation generates
generating 45,000 MW. The country electricity through two different power
also has vast potential for geothermal supply systems, namely, the Inter
energy. Connected System (ICS) and Self
28
National Bank of Ethiopia
100.0
80.0
Share 60.0
40.0
20.0
Year
0.0
2000/0 2001/0 2002/0 2003/0 2004/0 2005/0 2006/0 2007/0 2008/0 2009/1 2010/1 2011/1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2
ICS share in% 98.3 99.1 99.1 98.6 98.2 98.2 98.8 99.2 99.0 98.8 99.5 99.8
SCS share in% 1.7 0.9 0.9 1.4 2.0 1.8 1.2 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.5 0.2
The total amount of electric power Currently, the number of towns and
generated during 2011/12 was 6.3 cities having access to electricity has
million KWH, 26.2 percent higher than reached 5,637 of which 474 towns
a year ago. About 99.3 percent of the were added in 2011/12.
electric power was generated through
hydropower and the remaining 0.7
percent from thermal, wind and
geothermal sources (Table 2.1).
29
National Bank of Ethiopia Annual Bulletin
Hydro Power 3,418,610 87.5 4,922,069 98.8 6,239,288.9 99.3 82.5 26.8
Thermal Power 418,170 10.7 13,716 0.3 0.0 0.0 -100 -100
Hydro Power 20,113 0.5 9,351 0.2 1,715.7 0.1 -91.5 -81.7
Thermal Power 24,960 0.6 16,094 0.3 8,180.4 0.1 -67.2 -49.2
SCS Geothermal
Sub
Total 45,073 1.2 25,445 0.5 9,896.2 0.2 -78.0 -61.1
Hydro Power 3,438,723 88.1 4,931,420 99.0 6,241,004.6 99.3 81.5 26.6
Thermal Power 443,130 11.3 29,810 0.6 8,180.4 0.13 -98.2 -72.6
Grand
Total 3,905,375 100.0 4,980,497 100.0 6,286,421.3 100.0 61.0 26.2
Source: Ethiopian Electric and Power Corporation
In 2011/12, about 2.14 million metric percent). The total volume of petroleum
tons of petroleum products worth Birr imports increased by 12.6 percent solely
36.7 million were imported into the due to higher volume of gas oil (24.3
country. Total value of petroleum percent) and regular gasoline (4.7
product imports surged by 37.3 percent percent) despite marginal reduction in
was mainly due to an increase in import volume of fuel oil (4.3 percent) and jet
bill of gas oil (59.8 percent), regular fuel (2.7 percent) (Table 2.2).
gasoline (49.4 percent) and fuel oil (54.2
30
National Bank of Ethiopia Annual Bulletin
2010/11 2011/12
Percentage
Volume Value Volume Value Change
31
National Bank of Ethiopia Annual Bulletin
25,000
MGR Jet Fuel Fuel Oil Gas Oil
20,000
15,000
Value in birr
10,000
5,000
0
2001/022002/032003/042004/052005/062006/072007/082008/092009/102010/112011/12
Year
As the international oil prices tended to Accordingly, the retail prices in Addis
increase domestic retail prices were also Ababa increased on average by 25.7
adjusted upwards during 2011/12. percent for gas oil, 23 percent for regular
gasoil, 21.8 percent for fuel oil and 16.1
percent for kerosene (Table 2.3)
32
National Bank of Ethiopia Annual Bulletin
Table 2.3 : Annual Retail Prices of Petroleum Products in Addis Ababa ( Birr / liter)
33
National Bank of Ethiopia Annual Bulletin
34
National Bank of Ethiopia Annual Bulletin
Annual average headline inflation at the Similarly, annual average core inflation
end of the fiscal year 2011/12 was 34.1 slightly increased to 22.4 percent from
percent, 16 percentage point higher than 21.8 percent a year ago as a result of
the previous year level. This was largely higher prices of all non-food components
due to significant increase in food price (Table 3.1 and Fig.III.1).
inflation which contributed the 14.9 On contrary, year-on-year, headline
percentage points to the total annual inflation slowed down to 20.8 percent
change in headline inflation (Table 3.1). from 38.0 percent a year ago as both food
Meanwhile, annualized food inflation, and non-food price inflation registered
scaled up significantly to 42.9 percent 19.9 and 12 percentage points decline,
and depicted a 27.2 percentage point respectively. Annual food inflation,
increment over the preceding year as a which was 45.3 percent in June 2011,
result of a price hike in most of the food declined to 25.4 percent in June 2012
items except oil and fats, spices and non – while annual core inflation dropped to
alcoholic beverage and coffee. 15.8 percent from 27.8 over the same
period (Fig III.2).
35
National Bank of Ethiopia Annual Bulletin
36
National Bank of Ethiopia Annual Bulletin
At the end of 2011/12, the regional inflation than the regional simple
average general inflation picked up to average. Beni-shangul Gumz saw the
32.7 percent from 16.4 percent a year highest surge in headline inflation (32.9
earlier. Amhara, Oromia, SNNP, percentage point) while the lowest (5.4
Gambella and Beni-shangul Gumz percentage point) rise was recorded in
regional states registered higher headline Addis Ababa (Table 3.2).
37
National Bank of Ethiopia Annual Bulletin
The regional average food inflation The highest increase in food inflation was
significantly increased to 41.7 percent by registered in Beni-shangul (63.5
the end of June 2012 compared to last percentage points); and the lowest in
year. Food inflation higher than the Somali (9.3 percentage points). Over the
regional simple average was registered in two-year period (2010/11 to 2011/12),
Oromia, Amhara, SNNP, Gambella and food price instability was high in most of
Beni-shangul Gumz (Table 3.2). the regions.
38
National Bank of Ethiopia Annual Bulletin
Likewise, the average regional non-food The highest rise in non-food inflation was
inflation stood at 22.5 percent at June recorded in Tigray (11.5 percentage
2012. Non-food inflation stood above the points), while the higher decline
average level in SNNP, Oromia, Tigray, registered in Amhara (-3.4 percentage
Somali and Afar (Table 3.2). points).
3
Coefficient of variation is the ratio of standard deviation to mean.
39
National Bank of Ethiopia Annual Bulletin
During the year under review, Ethiopia’s administrational measures coupled with
monetary policy continued to focus on slow down in global food and fuel prices ,
containing inflationary pressure. the year-on-year headline inflation dropped
Accordingly as a result of prudent fiscal to 20.5 percent by end 2011/12 compared
and tight monetary policies as well as other to 38 percent last year.
40
National Bank of Ethiopia Annual Bulletin
Narrow Money Supply 42,112.7 52,434.6 76,171.0 94,849.9 19.1 24.5 45.3 24.5
. Currency Outside Banks 19,715.0 24,206.8 32,574.9 38,537.1 11.7 22.8 34.6 18.3
. Demand Deposits (net) 22,397.6 28,227.8 43,596.1 56,312.7 26.6 26.0 54.4 29.2
Quasi-Money 40,397.1 51,997.8 69,206.0 94,548.9 23.0 28.7 33.1 36.6
. Savings Deposits 37,148.7 48,041.6 64,539.6 82,487.8 26.0 29.3 34.3 27.8
. Time Deposits 3,248.4 3,956.2 4,666.4 12,061.1 -3.2 21.8 18.0 158.5
Broad Money Supply 82,509.8 104,432.4 145,377.0 189,398.8 21.0 26.6 39.2 30.3
Source: NBE
Broad Money
24,000
(In Millions of Birr)
22,000
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11
Year
Currency Outside Banks Net Demand Deposit Quasi- Money
Source: NBE
41
National Bank of Ethiopia Annual Bulletin
Domestic Credit 89,203.0 104,413.5 135,553.9 189,080.8 11.5 17.1 29.8 39.5
. Claims on Central Gov't (net) 32,786.5 33,013.1 28,651.7 21,557.4 -0.9 0.7 -13.2 -24.8
. Claims on Non-Central Gov't 56,416.5 71,400.4 106,902.2 167,523.4 20.3 26.6 49.7 56.7
Other Items (net) 24,670.1 27,170.9 45,711.6 39,469.7 5.2 10.1 68.2 -13.7
Broad Money (M2) 82,509.8 104,432.4 145,377.0 189,398.8 21.0 26.6 39.2 30.3
Source: NBE
Source: NBE
42
National Bank of Ethiopia Annual Bulletin
7
National Bank of Ethiopia Annual Bulletin
Source: NBE
44
National Bank of Ethiopia Annual Bulletin
In 2011/12 the minimum interest rate on increased to 5.73 percent from 5.49
saving deposit was 5 percent and the percent last year. Average lending rate,
maximum 5.75 percent. Consequently, however, remained at 11.88 percent.
average interest rate on savings deposit All rates including yield on T-Bills were
remained at 5.4 percent. negative against the year-on-year
On the other hand, the weighted annual headline inflation of 20.9 percent during
average interest rate on time deposit the review fiscal year.
45
National Bank of Ethiopia
Rates 2002/03 2003/04 2005/06 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
Deposit Rate
Savings Deposit
Minimum 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 5.04 5.00
Maximum 3.15 3.15 3.15 3.15 3.15 4.15 5.00 5.00 5.75 5.75
Average* 3.08 3.08 3.08 3.08 3.08 4.08 4.50 4.50 5.40 5.40
Time deposit
Up to 1 year 3.35 3.40 3.60 3.60 3.64 4.67 4.12 4.56 5.37 5.65
1 -2 years 3.62 3.64 4.01 4.01 4.11 5.23 4.48 4.80 5.51 5.74
Over 2 years 3.82 3.84 4.30 4.30 4.49 5.59 4.73 5.01 5.60 5.78
Average* 3.60 3.62 3.97 3.97 4.08 5.16 4.44 4.79 5.49 5.73
Demand Deposit
(Average*) 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.04 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.03
Lending Rate
Minimum 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 7.50 7.50
Maximum 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 15.00 16.50 16.50 16.25 16.25
Average* 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 11.50 12.25 12.25 11.88 11.88
Deposit 1/ -14.70 0.70 -7.73 -7.73 -12.03 -51.13 1.80 1.70 -12.70 -28.3
Deposit 2/ 1.98 0.48 -7.93 -7.93 -7.83 -19.13 -10.50 -13.70 -16.40 -17.20
Lending/1 -7.27 8.12 -0.30 -0.30 -4.60 -43.70 9.55 13.70 -6.23 -21.80
T-bills (Nominal) 1.31 1.05 0.04 0.04 0.50 0.67 0.80 0.89 1.31 1.92
Source: NBE
1/ Real saving deposit interest rates and real lending rates computed based on average headline inflation.
2/ Real saving deposit interest rates computed based on average core inflation
It is simple average for saving deposit and lending rates, while weighted mean for time and demand deposits .As a result,
the movements in the average interest rate on time and demand deposits reflect the change in the proportion of commercial bank
deposits that would pay higher interest rate on time and demand deposits, rather than the change in interest rate.
46
National Bank of Ethiopia
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
Years
Average Saving Deposit Rate Average Time Deposit Rate Average Lending Rate
Source: NBE
The major financial institutions operating in declined from 65,415.834 people to 62,063.6
Ethiopia are banks, insurance companies and in 2011/12.
micro-finance institutions. The number of The significant branch expansion was
banks operating in the country during the undertaken by Commercial Bank of Ethiopia
fiscal year reached 17, of which 14 were (CBE) (142 branches), followed by
private, and the remaining 3 state-owned. Construction & Business Bank (50
During the fiscal year, 319 new branches branches), United Bank (19 branches),
were opened raising the total branch network
in the country to 1,289 from 970 last year.
As a result, bank branch to population ratio
4
Taking total population 84 million
47
National Bank of Ethiopia
Abay Bank (17 branches), Awash the share of private banks in total capital
International Bank (16 branches) and Buna rose to 49.3 percent from 45.3 percent same
International Bank (14 branches). Hence, the period last year. On the other hand, the share
share of private banks branch network was of public banks in total capital was 50.7
47.6 percent at the end of 2011/12 slightly percent with CBE taking up to 34.6 percent.
down from 50.2 percent last year due to
aggressive branch expansion by CBE. In the meantime, the number of insurance
companies increased to 15 from 14 last year.
The number of bank branches in Addis
The number of branches also rose to 243
Ababa, reached 430 showing 23.2 percent
following the opening of 22 additional
growth last year, indicating the booming
branches. Major expansion of branches was
economic activities in the central city.
undertaken by Berhan Insurance S.C. (6
private banks, mainly Nib International Bank Corporation (5 branches), Oromia Insurance
(Birr 259 million), Dashen Bank (Birr 229 S.C. and Tsehay Insurance S.C. each with
Bank of Abyssinia (Birr 159 million) and About 53.1 percent of insurance branches
Awash International Bank (Birr 153 were located in Addis Ababa. Ownership
million), the total capital of the banking wise, private insurance companies accounted
industry increased by 12.9 percent to Birr 18 for 81.1 percent of the total branches.
billion by the end of June 2012. As a result,
48
National Bank of Ethiopia
At the same time, the total capital of percent of the total capital while one public
insurance companies increased by 25.6 insurance company alone accounted for 26.7
percent to Birr 1.2 billion in 2011/12. Private percent.
insurance companies accounted for 73.3
49
National Bank of Ethiopia
Table 4.5: Capital and Branch Network of the Banking System at the Close of June 30, 2012
50
National Bank of Ethiopia
Table.4.6: Branch Network & Capital of Insurance Companies at a close of June 2012.
(Branch in Number and Capital in Million Birr)
Branch Capital
%
2010/11 2011/12 2010/11 2011/12
Change
Region Region
A.A Total A.A Total A B B/A
No. Insurance Companies s s
1 Ethiopian Insurance Corporation. 11.0 30.0 41 11 35 46 291.0 321.0 10.3
2 Awash Insurance S.C. 18.0 11.0 29 20 11 31 89.0 113.9 27.9
3 Africa Insurance S.C. 6.0 7.0 13 6 7 13 81.0 96.7 19.5
4 National Ins. Co. of Eth. 8.0 8.0 16 9 8 17 27.9 52.5 87.8
5 United Insurance S.C 15.0 8.0 23 15 8 23 88.0 121.9 38.4
6 Global Insurance S.C 6.0 4.0 10 6 4 10 27.8 29.8 7.1
7 Nile Insurance S.C 11.0 10.0 21 11 10 21 100.3 122.9 22.6
8 Nyala Insurance S.C 8.0 8.0 16 10 8 18 96.3 126.0 30.8
9 Nib Insurance S.C 14.0 8.0 22 14 8 22 87.4 102.7 17.5
10 Lion Insurance S.C 6 5 11 6 5 11 17.3 35.2 103.3
11 Ethio-Life Insurance S.C. 0.0 0.0 - 0 0 - 4.9 5.3 7.4
12 Oromia Insurance S.C. 8 8 16 11 8 19 23.9 39.6 65.4
13 Abay Insurance S.C. 1 2 3 1 2 3 11.4 10.4 -8.6
14 Berhan Insurance S.C - - - 6 0 6 9.4 11.4 20.8
15 Tsehay Insurance S.C - - - 3 0 3 0.0 10.9 -
16 Total 112.0 109.0 221.0 129 114 243 955.7 1,200.1 25.6
Source: Insurance Companies
Note: A.A represents Addis Ababa
51
National Bank of Ethiopia
By the end of 2011/12, the number of billion while their credit provision rose by
Micro-finance Institutions (MFIs) operating 32.9 percent to Birr 9.3 billion.
in the country was 33. Their total capital and
total asset remarkably increased by 27.5 and The four largest MFI namely Amhara,
31 percent and reached Birr 3.8 billion and Dedebit, Oromia and Omo Crediit and
Birr 13.3 billion, respectively. Savings institution accounted for 75.4
percent of the total capital, 88.0 percent of
Similarly their deposit mobilization and the savings, 82.7 percent of the credit and
credit extension have witnessed a significant 82.7 percent of the total assets of MFIs at
growth. Compared to last year, their the end of 2011/12, reflecting the existence
deposits went up by 44.2 percent to Birr 5.4 of low competition in the industry.
52
National Bank of Ethiopia
The total resource mobilized by the The surge in demand deposit over saving
banking system in the form of deposit, deposit indicates the relative increase in
loan collection and borrowing increased transaction demand for money. At the
by 16.6 percent and reached Birr 89.2 same time the rise in saving deposits
billion at the end of 2011/12. reflects the ever growing financial
intermediation of banks
Spurred by remarkable branch
expansion, deposit liabilities of the Despite the opening of 127 new branches
banking system reached Birr 187.3 by private commercial banks, the share
billion reflecting annual growth rate of of private banks in deposit mobilization
33.3 percent over last year. Component slightly went down to 31.9 percent from
wise, time deposits registered a 33.3 percent last year. CBE alone
significant increase (143 percent) mobilized 65.9 percent of the total
followed by demand deposits (30.2 deposit due to its wider branch network.
percent), and saving deposits (27.8
percent). Demand deposits accounted for Raising funds through borrowing by the
49.3 percent of the total deposits banking industry was not an important
followed by saving deposits (44 percent) source of resource mobilization as most
and time deposit (6.7 percent). of the banks were sufficiently liquid due
to the surge in deposit mobilization and
53
National Bank of Ethiopia
54
National Bank of Ethiopia
Table 4.8: Annual Resource Mobilization & Disbursement Activities of Commercial Banks
and DBE (Specialized Bank) During 2011.
Percent
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 Change
1. Deposits (net change) 11,863.0 8,618.4 20,481.4 30,423.2 11,475.2 41,898.4 37,004.6 9,754.3 46,758.9 128.3 11.6
Demand 6,813.9 2,067.9 8,881.8 19,721.7 4,971.7 24,693.4 19,199.2 2,213.2 21,412.4 141.1 (13.3)
Savings 4,574.5 6,322.0 10,896.6 10,114.6 6,364.2 16,478.8 12,049.3 5,916.5 17,965.9 64.9 9.0
Time 474.5 228.5 703.0 586.9 139.3 726.2 5,756.0 1,624.6 7,380.6 949.8 916.3
2. Borrowing (net change) 2,597.5 - 2,597.5 4,041.7 - 4,041.7 7,247.1 - 7,247.1 179.0 79.3
3. Collection of Loans 10,168.0 14,898.8 25,066.8 11,987.8 18,560.4 30,548.2 18,479.9 16,707.6 35,187.4 40.4 15.2
4. Total Resources
Mobilized (1+2+3) 24,628.4 23,517.2 48,145.6 46,452.7 30,035.6 76,488.4 62,731.5 26,461.9 89,193.4 85.3 16.6
5. Disbursement 13,939.3 14,965.8 28,905.1 21,955.8 20,252.0 42,207.9 36,949.2 19,152.9 56,102.1 94.1 32.9
6. Change in Liquidity (4-5) 10,689.2 8,551.4 19,240.5 24,496.9 9,783.6 34,280.5 25,782.4 7,308.9 33,091.3 72.0 (3.5)
Memorandum Item:
7. Outstanding Credit* 33,912.8 17,720.8 51,633.5 50,743.5 26,947.0 77,690.5 79,605.7 36,740.4 116,346.1 125.3 49.8
4.9: Deposits and Borrowings of Commercial Banks and DBE At June 30, 2012
(In Million Birr)
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
B/A C/B
Particulars A B C
A. Deposits
-Demand 46149.0 70842.4 92254.8 53.5 30.2
-Savings 48049.9 64528.7 82494.6 34.3 27.8
-Time 4434.4 5160.6 12541.3 16.4 143.0
Total 98633.3 140531.8 187290.7 42.5 33.3
B. Borrowings
-Local 4665.6 8666.5 15898.9 85.8 83.5
-Foreign 978.7 1019.4 1034.1 4.2 1.4
Total 5644.2 9686.0 16933.1 71.6 74.8
Source: Commercial Banks &Staff Computation
55
National Bank of Ethiopia
56
National Bank of Ethiopia
57
National Bank of Ethiopia
Table 4.11: Percentage Share of Loans and Advances by Lenders at June 30, 2012
(In Million Birr)
2010/11 2011/12
D* C* O/S* D* C* O/S* Percentage change
Lenders A B C D E F D/A E/B F/C
Public Banks
1.Commercial Bank of Ethiopia 42.2 33.2 46.3 56.9 44.7 52.9 35.0 34.4 14.4
2.Development Bank of Ethiopia 9.0 4.1 16.2 0.8 1.7 1.6 -90.9 -57.5 -89.9
3. Construction & Business Bank 0.9 1.9 2.3 8.1 6.1 13.7 831.8 215.2 487.8
Sub-Total 52.0 39.2 64.8 65.9 52.5 68.3 26.6 33.8 5.4
B. Private Banks
4 Awash International Bank 11.0 13.9 5.4 4.4 6.3 5.0 -60.1 -55.0 -7.4
5. Dashen Bank 6.9 9.0 8.3 6.5 9.6 7.3 -6.2 6.8 -12.1
6. Bank of Abyssinia 5.9 7.7 4.5 3.7 5.7 3.5 -36.7 -25.8 -21.1
7. Wegagen Bank 6.2 8.6 3.9 4.6 6.7 3.2 -26.4 -22.1 -17.8
8. United Bank 6.1 7.5 4.4 4.2 6.3 3.7 -30.6 -15.4 -16.3
9. Nib International Bank 3.9 5.6 3.7 3.7 5.0 3.4 -4.3 -11.6 -10.0
10. Cooperative Bank of Oromia 1.6 2.3 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 -23.8 -49.7 16.2
11. Lion International Bank 1.1 1.7 0.9 1.0 1.3 0.9 -9.5 -23.3 -3.7
12. Oromia International Bank 1.5 1.5 0.9 1.4 2.1 0.9 -8.9 39.1 5.4
13. Zemen Bank 1.9 1.6 0.9 1.0 1.3 0.9 -46.7 -17.1 3.4
14.Berhan International Bank 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 -38.8 -25.4 1.6
15.Bunna International Bank 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.6 14.9 37.7 18.9
16. Abay Bank 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.4 123.8 1615.5 87.8
17. Addis International Bank 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sub-Total 48.0 60.8 35.2 34.1 47.5 31.7 -28.8 -21.9 -9.9
Grand Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Source: Commercial Banks & DBE
D*=Disbursement, C*=Collection, O/S*= Outstanding Credit
Total outstanding credit of the banking cooperatives rose by 32 and 64.1 percent,
system including the central government respectively.
increased by 49.8 percent and reached
Birr 116.3 billion at end June 2012. Gross The sectoral distribution of outstanding
government and public enterprises surged accounted for 28.8 percent followed by
by 65.2 and 102.3 percent, while claims international trade (21.5 percent) and
58
National Bank of Ethiopia
Agriculture 8,248.0 5,114.4 10,575.3 14,175.4 8,686.4 17,165.6 71.9 69.8 62.3
Industry 10,465.2 3,556.5 20,650.5 16,511.9 5,706.6 33,557.3 57.8 60.5 62.5
Domestic Trade 6,733.5 6,148.3 7,261.1 9,700.7 6,548.9 12,074.7 44.1 6.5 66.3
International Trade 10,569.9 9,943.5 18,025.7 7,061.3 7,489.3 25,015.6 (33.2) (24.7) 38.8
Export 5,921.4 6,078.5 7,222.8 2,659.5 2,733.6 10,720.6 (55.1) (55.0) 48.4
Import 4,648.5 3,895.6 10,802.8 4,401.8 4,755.7 14,294.8 (5.3) 22.1 32.3
Hotels and Tourism 395.4 333.1 1,435.5 456.3 433.7 1,650.5 15.4 30.2 15.0
Transport and Communication 1,850.6 1,455.4 3,558.6 1,917.3 1,724.6 4,428.9 3.6 18.5 24.5
Housing and Construction 2,900.9 2,739.5 9,023.1 5,083.4 3,440.1 12,397.4 75.2 25.6 37.4
Mines, Power and Water resource 7.3 14.9 37.2 16.2 16.3 31.9 123.5 9.5 (14.1)
Others 711.9 729.0 3,076.6 907.0 931.4 3,172.3 27.4 27.8 3.1
Personal 311.7 359.4 315.0 183.8 174.6 430.1 (41.0) (51.4) 36.5
Interbank Lending 13.66 123.6 12.9 88.8 35.5 276.4 549.9 (71.3) 2,038.3
Total 42,207.9 30,548.2 77,690.5 56,102.1 35,187.4 116,346.1 32.9 15.2 49.8
Source: Commercial Banks including DBE & Staff Computation
D*=Disbursement, C*=Collection, O/S*= Outstanding Credit
1/ includes lending to central government
59
National Bank of Ethiopia
Public Enterprises 8,170.8 8,442.7 13,687.9 13,534.5 3,753.4 27,694.9 228.0 102.3
Private & Individuals 34,041.9 40,910.7 51,893.1 30,362.6 23,201.4 68,479.1 67.4 32.0
Inter-bank Lending 427.5 260.9 12.9 88.8 35.5 276.4 6.0 2038.3
Total less Inter-bank Lending 51,206.0 62,031.3 77,677.5 56,013.3 35,151.9 116,069.7 87.1 49.4
Source: Commercial Banks including DBE & Staff Computation
D*=Disbursement, C*=Collection, O/S*= Outstanding Credit
1/ Includes lending to central government
60
National Bank of Ethiopia
By the end of 2011/12, outstanding on DBE rose from Birr 9.3 billion to Birr
claims of NBE on the central government 12.5 billion.
reached Birr 55.56 billion of which direct
advances stood at Birr 46.3 billion or Regarding liabilities of NBE, total
83.3 percent of the total claim, while deposits at the NBE dropped by 24.4
bond holdings accounted for the percent to Birr 30.8 billion due to lower
remaining 16.7 percent. By the end of deposits of financial institutions and
2011/12, the outstanding claim of NBE central government.
Table 4.14: Financial Activities of National Bank of Ethiopia at the Close of June 30, 2012
(In Million Birr)
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 % Change
Particulars A B C B/A C/B
Loans and Advances (1+2) 45,522.8 61,864.6 68,064.5 35.9 10.0
1.Claims on Central Government 45,522.8 55,614.6 55,562.5 22.2 -0.1
1.1 Direct Advance 36,044.1 46,265.0 46,264.9 28.4 0.0
1.2 Bonds 9,478.7 9,349.6 9,297.5 -1.4 -0.6
Treasury bill market is the only regular Government bonds are also occasionally
primary market where securities are issued to finance government
transacted on a weekly basis. There is no expenditures and/or to absorb excess
secondary market for the security. liquidity in the banking system.
61
National Bank of Ethiopia
The amount of T-bills sold during the The average weighted yield for all types
year was Birr 74.7 billion (96.8 percent of bills increased to 1.87 from 1.13
of total demand), depicting a 42.8 percent percent last year. The yields for 28-days,
rise. 91-days and 182 days T-bills grew by
Albeit improved participation of banks in 73.5, 17.9 and 83.2 percent, respectively
62
National Bank of Ethiopia
63
National Bank of Ethiopia
On April 4, 2011, NBE introduced NBE over all economic growth. Since its
Bill to mobilize resource from banks to introduction total NBE bill purchased by
help long term financing of some priority the banking sector reached Birr 12.84
sectors identified as the driving forces for billion at the end of the fiscal year.
120000.00 3.00
100000.00 2.50
Value in Millions of Birr
80000.00 2.00
60000.00 1.50
40000.00 1.00
20000.00 0.50
0.00 0.00
Year
Source: NBE
64
National Bank of Ethiopia
In recent years, following the strong for 79.2 percent, regional states and DBE
growth in economic activities and real 17.8 percent and 3 percent, of total bond
income, there was strong demand for holdings by CBE.
corporate bonds. As a result, corporate Public institutions and regional
bond holdings of CBE increased by 53.5 governments are the sole issues of
percent to Birr 61.8 billion in 2011/12 corporate bonds.
from Birr 40.3 billion a year ago.
Corporate bonds of EEPCO accounted
Table 4.16: Disbursement, Redemption and Outstanding of Coupon and Corporate Bond
Purchases by the Banking System at the end of June 30, 2012
(In Millions of Birr)
Percentage
Annual Change
2010/11 2011/12
Particulars A B B/A
1. Corporate Bond Purchases by holders 18,157.0 23,501.0 29.4
EEPCO 13,000.0 19,300.0 48.5
Regional governments 3,007.0 4,101.0 36.4
Development Bank of Ethiopia 2,150.0 100.0 -95.3
Private Sector
2. Redemption of Bonds by Clients 5,611.7 1,740.3 -69.0
EEPCO 0.0 0.0 0.0
Regional governments 1,167.1 1,740.3 49.1
Development Bank of Ethiopia 4,444.6 0.0 -100.0
Private Sector
3. Outstanding Bonds by Clients 40,258.3 61,786.7 53.5
EEPCO 29,600.0 48,900.0 65.2
Regional governments 8,858.3 11,015.8 24.4
Development Bank of Ethiopia 1,800.0 1,870.9 3.9
Private Sector
Source: Commercial Bank of Ethiopia
65
National Bank of Ethiopia
Source: NBE
66
National Bank of Ethiopia
67
National Bank of Ethiopia
68
National Bank of Ethiopia
69
National Bank of Ethiopia
The deficit in merchandise trade during Compared to same period last year,
2011/12 was widened by 42.8 percent to export to GDP ratio and import to GDP
USD 7.9 billion, relative to the preceding ratios was declined by 1.3 and 0.4
fiscal year mainly due to higher growth in percentage points respectively from 8.7
total imports than total exports. percent and 26.3 percent last year.
5.2.1 Exports
Total export proceeds during 2011/12 9 percent growth in volume and 19.7
amounted to USD 3.15 billion, about 14.8 percent increase in international price.
percent higher than the previous fiscal Revenue from gold accounted for 19.1
year. The growth was largely attributed to percent of total export earnings.
increased earnings from oilseeds (44.6 Export of live animals earned USD 207.1
percent), gold (30.5 percent), live animals million, depicting a 40 percent growth
(40 percent), pulses (15.8 percent), flower over the preceding year owing to a rise in
(12.4 percent), meat & meat products the volume of exports (28.4 percent) and
(24.5 percent), fruits and vegetables (42.7 higher international price (9 percent).
percent), leather & leather products (5.9 Earnings from live animals contributed
percent), and chat (0.8 percent). 6.6 percent of the total merchandise
Earnings from export of oilseeds grew by export proceeds.
44.6 percent and reached USD Driven by marginal improvement in the
472.3 million, as a result of significant volume of export (0.7 percent) and
increment in volume of export (44.6 moderate rise in international price (15
percent) and marginal improvement in percent); export proceeds from pulses
international price (0.03 percent). increased by 15.8 percent to USD 159.7
million accounting for 5.1 percent of the
Revenue from gold rose by 30.5 percent total merchandise exports.
annually to USD 602.4 million driven by
70
National Bank of Ethiopia
Leather & leather products earned USD international price despite 14.2 percent
109.9 million, about 5.9 percent higher decline in volume. However, their share
than the previous year. This increment in the total export declined to 3.5 percent
ascribed to a 23.4 percent rise in from 3.8 percent in the previous period.
71
National Bank of Ethiopia
72
National Bank of Ethiopia
73
National Bank of Ethiopia
74
National Bank of Ethiopia
5.2.2. Imports
Compared to last year, total merchandise percent from 27.8 percent in the
import in 2011/12 surged by 33.8 percent preceding year.
to USD 11.06 billion owing to growth in
Similarly, fuel import bill rose by 28.1
imports of consumer goods (53.9
percent in 2011/12 and amounted to USD
percent), fuel (28.1 percent), and semi-
2.12 billion. This was due to higher
finished goods (59.4 percent), capital
volume of export (20.4 percent) and
goods (7.4 percent) and raw materials
improvement in international fuel price
(8.4 percent).
(16.6 percent)5. As a result, the share of
fuel in total import bill went down to 19.2
Imports of consumer goods rose
percent from 20.1 percent recorded last
considerably by 53.9 percent mainly due
year same period.
to 70.1 percent increment in imports of
non-durable goods. The boost in imports
of cereals (232.9 percent) was the main
factor for higher import of non-durably.
Consequently, the share of consumer
goods in total imports increased to 31.9 5
Information on international fuel price was
obtained from U.S. Energy Information
Administration
75
National Bank of Ethiopia
76
National Bank of Ethiopia
Ethiopia’s merchandise exports have vast products, natural gums and vegetables.
market in Europe, accounting for 47.1 Coffee, meat & meat products, oilseeds,
percent of the total merchandise exports. live animals and flower were exported to
Within European countries, Switzerland, Saudi Arabia. Meat & meat products,
accounting for about 38.6 percent of the pulses, live animals, oilseeds, vegetables,
total exports, was the largest market natural gum, flower and food were the
mainly for gold. Germany, the second major export products sold to United
important market in the continent Arab Emirates. Israel bought mainly
accounting for 20.7 percent, mainly oilseeds, coffee and vegetables while
imported coffee, textile & garments, Japan imported mainly coffee, oilseeds,
flower and leather & leather products. and flower.
The Netherlands, constituting 14.6
percent of Ethiopia’s export to Europe, Meanwhile, about 18.9 percent of
primarily for flower, gold, vegetable and nations of which Somalia, Sudan,
coffee. Italy with 5.4 percent of the total Djibouti, and Egypt together accounted
Ethiopian exports to the Europe was the for 93.3 percent of the total exports to the
market for coffee, leather & leather continent. Exports to Somalia mainly
products, textile & garment and pulses. included vegetables, live animals and
chat. Live animals, coffee, pulses and
About 30 percent of the total Ethiopian spices were the main exports to Sudan.
which China accounted for 34.6 percent, animals, chat, textile & garments, fruits
Saudi Arabia 21.7 percent, United Arab and pulses whilst Egypt bought live
Emirates 8.1 percent, Israel 6.4 percent animals, oilseeds, meat & meat products
77
National Bank of Ethiopia
2011/12 of which United States and coffee, oilseeds, mineral products and
Canada together made up 92.5 percent. leather & leather products while Canada
The United States imported mainly mainly bought coffee.
America
3.4% Europe
47.1%
78
National Bank of Ethiopia
79
National Bank of Ethiopia
for 88.3 percent of the total import from South Africa. Petroleum products were
Africa. Import from Morocco was mainly the main import from Sudan. Imports
fertilizer. Road & motor vehicles, food & from Egypt included metal & metal
live animals, machinery & aircraft, manufacturing, petroleum products,
medical and pharmaceutical products, rubber products, food & live animals,
metal & metal manufacturing, paper & paper & paper manufacturing.
paper manufacturing, fertilizer, grain and
beverages were the major imports from
Asia America
65.4% 6.2%
80
National Bank of Ethiopia
Net Services
9 (10+11+12+13+14) 457.4 688.1 74.9 50.4 -89.1
10 Travel 224.1 574.9 492.6 156.5 -14.3
81
National Bank of Ethiopia
Total Net Transfers 4,615.2 100 4,607.5 100 5,033.8 100 -0.2 9.3
Source: Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Agency, MoFED and NBE
Net official transfers declined by 3.9 official transfers declined by 9.2 percent to
percent owing to lower grants from both USD 1.7 billion while food aid increased to
international financial institutions and USD 119.8 million compared to USD 30.1
bilateral donors. Cash component of million in the previous year.
82
National Bank of Ethiopia
83
National Bank of Ethiopia
Debt service ratio ( percent )1/ 2.6 3.6 7.1 38.3 93.3
In the inter-bank foreign exchange market, (Table 5.9). Similarly, the Birr weakened
the average weighted exchange rate of the in the parallel foreign exchange market to
Birr depreciated by 7.1 percent year-on- Birr17.9883/USD on average, showing 8.8
year to reach Birr 17.2536/USD percent annual depreciation.
8.8 percent annual depreciation.
84
National Bank of Ethiopia
As a result, the average spread between faster depreciation of the Birr in the
the official and parallel market rates parallel market.
widened to 4.3 percent from 2.6 percent
the previous year, mainly due to relatively
Amount Traded in
millions of USD Number of Trades
Average Average Rates
Weighted o/w Among in Parallel
Period Rate Total CBs Total o/w Among CBs Market
85
National Bank of Ethiopia
Table 5.10: End Period Mid Market Rates (USD per Unit of Foreign Currency)
Table 5.11: Mid Market End Period Rates (Birr per Unit of Foreign Currency)
86
National Bank of Ethiopia
During the review year, the end period Since USD is an intervention currency in
mid market exchange rate of the US Ethiopia, the end period exchange rate of
dollar appreciated against major the Birr also followed similar patterns as
international currencies. The highest rate it appreciated against Euro (9.6 percent),
of appreciation was against Euro (13.7 Swiss Frank (9.3 percent), Swedish
percent) and Swiss Frank (13.5 percent), Kroner (5.2 percent), Canadian Dollar
followed by Swedish Kroner (9.6 (0.5 percent) and SDR (0.2 percent). The
percent), Canadian Dollar (5.2 percent), Birr also showed annual depreciation of 7
SDR (4.8 percent) and Pound sterling percent against Japanese Yen and 4.9
(2.9 percent). percent against Djibouti Frank, Saudi
Riyal and UAE Dirham each (Table 5.
However, the US dollar has shown slight
11).
depreciated vis-à-vis Japanese Yen, while
it remained stable with respect to Djibouti
Frank, Saudi Riyal and UAE Dirhams
(Table 5.10).
Following the decline in its rate of The nominal effective exchange rate,
depreciation, the real effective exchange however, depreciated by 5.2 percent
rate (REER) appreciated by 22 percent in compared to 20.6 percent depreciation in
2011/12 against 10.8 percent depreciation 2010/11 as domestic annual inflation
in the preceding year, mainly due to tended to slow down from 38 percent to
higher domestic inflation (Table 5.12). 20.5 percent during the review period.
87
National Bank of Ethiopia
Percentage Change
Year REERI NEERI REER NEER
USD 152.2 million was traded in the inter- Meanwhile, foreign exchange purchase of
bank foreign exchange market during forex bureau of commercial banks declined
2011/12, about 68.7 percent higher than last by 32.5 percent to USD 134.6 million. Their
year. Of the total transactions, USD 90.9 sales of foreign exchange, however, surged
million (or 60 percent) was among from USD 19.7 million in 2010/11 to USD
commercial banks while the remaining USD 88 million in 2011/12 (Table 5.13).
61.3 million was supplied by the NBE (Table
5.9).
88
National Bank of Ethiopia
89
National Bank of Ethiopia
90
National Bank of Ethiopia
91
National Bank of Ethiopia
140000
120000
100000
In million Birr
80000
60000
40000
20000
Fiscal Year
92
National Bank of Ethiopia
Percentage Perform-
2010/11 2011-12 Change ance
A [B] C Rate
Revised
Particulars Pre. Act Budget Pre. Act [C/A] [C/B]
93
National Bank of Ethiopia
6.3 Expenditure
94
National Bank of Ethiopia
Percentage
2010/11 2011/12 Change Perform-ance
[A] [B] [C] Rate
Pre Revised
Particulars actual Budget Pre actual [C/A] [C/B]
Total Expenditure 93,831.4 138,293.5 124,416.7 32.6 90.0
1. Current Expenditure 40,534.7 55,851.6 51,445.5 26.9 92.1
General Services 15,654.5 18,828.3 21,158.8 35.2 112.4
Economic Services 5,324.7 7,119.6 6,577.0 23.5 92.4
Social Services 16,057.3 21,958.6 21,054.8 31.1 95.9
Interest and Charges 1,912.7 3,523.6 2,230.4 16.6 63.3
Others (Miscellaneous) 1,248.0 4,421.5 424.4 (66.0) 9.6
2. Capital Expenditure 53,296.7 82,442.0 72,971.3 36.9 88.5
Economic Development 35,309.8 56,365.8 50,400.7 42.7 89.4
Social Development 14,706.9 20,289.0 17,971.3 22.2 88.6
General Development 3,280.0 5,787.3 4,599.3 40.2 79.5
3,Special programs - - - - -
Source: Ministry of Finance and Economic Development
95
National Bank of Ethiopia
35.0
30.0
25.0
In Percent of GDP
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
Fiscal Year
Expenditure/GDP Revenue/GDP
Source MoFED
96
National Bank of Ethiopia
97
National Bank of Ethiopia
VII. INVESTMENT
The Ethiopian Investment Agency and The number of foreign projects reached 604
Regional Investment Offices licensed which were 36.6 percent lower than the
62,068 investment projects with an same period last year.
aggregate capital of Birr 1.2 trillion in the
period between 1992/93 – 2011/12. Of these With regard to investment capital, domestic
projects, 52,462 (84.5 percent) were private projects which made up Birr 59.3
domestic, 9,498 (15.3 percent) foreign and billion or 41 percent while foreign
108 (0.2 percent) public. In terms of capital, investment projects accounted for Birr 84
Birr 483.4 billion (39.5 percent) was from to billion (or 57.5 percent) of the total
domestic investors, Birr 466.2 billion (38.1 approved investment capital the rest
percent) from foreign investors and Birr investment was carried out by the
275.2 billion (22.5 percent) from the public government.
sector (Table 7.1).
98
National Bank of Ethiopia
Table 7.1: Number and Investment Capital of Approved Projects by Ownership since 1992/93
99
National Bank of Ethiopia
Source:EthiopianInvestmentAgency
100
National Bank of Ethiopia
101
National Bank of Ethiopia
Hotel and restaurants 617 10,463 609 9,968 271 12,322 4.80 8.43
Grand Total 6496 96415 6322 249,469 5649 146168 100 100
102
National Bank of Ethiopia
103
National Bank of Ethiopia
Of the total 5649 projects approved billion capital), Oromia (510 projects
in2011/12, Addis Ababa attracted 4,170 with Birr 25.7 billion capital) and Dire
projects (73.8 percent) with Birr 62.3 Dawa (134 projects with Birr 660
billion investment capital, followed by million capital).
Amhara (612 projects with Birr 38.6
percentage share
to Total
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
Regions
No. of Investment No. of Investment No. of Investment No. of Investment
Projects Capital Projects Capital Projects Capital Projects Capital
Benishangul-
Gumuz 111 1,389 56 81,611 50 354 0.89 0.24
Addis Ababa 2,902 29,195 3,221 30,627 4,170 62,264 73.82 42.60
Dire Dawa 172 1,455 207 2,995 134 660 2.37 0.45
Multiregional
Projects 118 12,689 6 1,067 2 7,129 0.04 4.88
Grand Total 6496 96415.44 6322 249,469 5649.00 146,168 100 100
Source: Ethiopian Investment Agency
104
National Bank of Ethiopia
6
It Extracted from European Central Bank annual
report 2011& monthly reports, through January to
June, 2012 and World Economic Outlook, October
2012.
105
National Bank of Ethiopia
Projection
Particulars 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
World Output 5.1 3.9 3.2 3.5 4.1
Advanced Economies 3.0 1.6 1.3 1.4 2.2
United States 2.4 1.8 2.3 2.0 3.0
Euro Area 2.0 1.4 –0.4 –0.2 1.0
Japan 4.5 –0.6 2.0 1.2 0.7
Emerging Market & Developing 7.4
6.3 5.1 5.5 5.9
Economies
World Trade Volume (goods & services) 12.6 5.9 2.8 3.8 5.5
Imports
Advanced Economies 11.4 4.6 1.2 2.2 4.1
Emerging Market & Developing 14.9
8.4 6.1 6.5 7.8
Economies
Exports
Advanced Economies 12.0 5.6 2.1 2.8 4.5
Emerging Market & Developing 13.7
6.6 3.6 5.5 6.9
Economies
Commodity Prices (U.S. dollars)
Oil 27.9 31.6 1.0 –5.1 –2.9
Non- oil 26.3 17.8 –9.8 –3.0 –3.0
Consumer Prices
Advanced Economies 1.5 2.7 2.0 1.6 1.8
Emerging Market & Developing 6.1
7.2 6.1 6.1 5.5
Economies
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2012
106
National Bank of Ethiopia
107
National Bank of Ethiopia
In China, real GDP growth, which is mainly domestic demand due to the tightening
driven by domestic demand while the monetary policy stance in most countries of
contribution of net exports tuned negative, the region. Year-on-year growth was 4.9
declined to 9.2 percent from 10.3 percent in percent in the first half for the region as a
2010. Domestic demand was driven by whole compared with 6.3 percent in the
ample liquidity built up in previous years previous year. However, the decline in real
where as construction was sustained by the GDP growth was partly by the less negative
government’s social housing program of contribution from external demand as
2011, which set out to provide 36 million private consumption continued to be the
new housing units by the end of 2015. main engine of growth and labour market
conditions remained favorable and lending
In Latin America, real GDP growth has standards eased.
declined on account of slower expansion of
108
National Bank of Ethiopia
In Emerging Asia, trade surplus narrowed to mainly as a result of weaker global growth,
USD 155 billion in 2011 from USD 181 while import growth held up relatively well
billion in 2010. This is due to decline in supported by robust domestic demand.
export growth in the second half of the year,
109
National Bank of Ethiopia
Japanese economy continued with its declined, prompting some central banks to
deflationary environment as CPI inflation halt their monetary tightening cycle they had
remained negative throughout most of 2011. begun in the second half of the preceding
All through the year, the Bank of Japan year.
maintained an accommodative monetary
stance in order to stimulate the economy and In China, inflation remained high mainly
fight deflation. driven by high commodity prices and
adverse domestic supply shocks to food
Emerging economies, inflationary pressures items, but eased to 3.1 percent by the end of
remained strong in 2011. In the first half, the year.
annual inflation rates increased on account
of the surge in food and other non food For Latin America, headline inflation stood
commodity prices though the increase later at 6.7 percent in the first half of 2011. The
on became more broadly based. However, it solid growth performance coupled with
peaked in the third quarter of the year as rising food prices resulted in a wide spread
both imported demand and domestic increase in inflationary pressures, which
demand pressures eased. In the last quarter prompted several central banks to increase
of the period, annual inflation marginally their policy rates during this period.
110
National Bank of Ethiopia
European currencies. As a result, the average level in 2010 and close to its
nominal effective exchange rate of the Euro, average level since 2009.
as measured against the currencies of 20 of
the Euro areas most important trading The real effective exchange rates of the Euro
partners, declined by 2.2 percent over the based on different cost and price measures
year. increased during the first half of 2011 and
there after depreciated to levels close to
By the end of 2011, in nominal effective those prevailing at the end of 2010.
terms, the Euro stood at 4 percent below its
111
National Bank of Ethiopia
[[
112