;·

With the Compliments

of
ClarkC.Abt
Abt Associates Inc. 55 Wheeler Street · Cambridge· Massachuseus 02138 ·
Tct<phooc , 617-4927IOO
 -\
_; 1 !;l O4 t .-
I Yl't:!1??
_J &~1t,-t?/
November 25, 1983
/YOlll'P
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"THE DAY AFTER" DID NOT CHANGE PEOPLE'S MINDS, BUT IT DID GET
100 MILLION AMERICANS' ATTENTION /2t 7V...:!1'/u,.,,,v ~~ ~

The TV show "The Day After" did not change people's attitudes about U.S.
defense policy or nuclear war. An Abt Associates Inc. survey, conducted
before and after the ABC show was broadcast, found that of the 60 percent
of those interviewed who watched the show, there were no significant changes
in attitudes regarding the likelihood of nuclear war or their chances of
surviving one.

"The worst fears and the best hopes about the show's impacts on opinion
about nuclear war and defense were not demonstrated in the results of our
survey," observed Clark Abt, president of Abt Associates Inc., "But there
were plenty of other surprises."

IMPACT OF THE SHOW ON OPINIONS ABOUT NATIONAL DEFENSE AND NUCLEAR WAR

• Before the show, 65% of viewers felt that a nuclear war between
the ·u.s. and the Soviet Union was very or somewhat likely by the
year 2000. After the show, 63% felt the same way. These results
are consistent with the results of a national poll conducted by
Abt Associates in May, 1982, when 63% thought nuclear war between
the U.S. and the Soviet Union was very or somewhat likely by the
year 2000.

• Before and after the show, roughly the same number of viewers
(90% and 92% respectively) felt they would not survive a nuclear
war. 7% before and 5% after, felt that they would survive.

• Before and after the show, roughly the same number of viewers
(80% and 81% respectively) felt that it is not possible to limit
a nuclear war to military targets.

• Before the show, 54% of viewers approved of U.S. government

policies on defense against nuclear war, 36% disapproved and 10%
did not know. After the show, 58% approved, 32% disapproved and
10% did not know. These numbers compare to 46% approve, 35%
disapprove and 18% don't know in the May, 1982 poll.

• 57% of viewers before the show felt that the government should be
doing more to avoid nuclear war. After the show, 53% of viewers
felt the government should be doing more.

• More viewers believed that defense spending should remain the

same (37% before the show and 40% after) than increase (27%/25%)
or decrease (30%/30%).

Abt .As&>ciates Inc.

;-

• • •2

• When asked if the U.S. should defend its allies by threatening

the use of nuclear weapons, 72% of viewers said no before the
show and 73% said no after the show. (8% said they did not know.)

• The response to the question: Should the U.S. defend West

Germany by threatening the use of nuclear weapons (asked only of
viewers after the show) was: 21% yes, 73% no, and 6% don't
know.

When those who watched the show were asked what effect "The Day After"
would have on U.S. defense policies:

• A majority (51%) said it would have no effect.

• Of those who felt it would have an effect, 22% felt that it

would encourage a U.S. and/or Soviet defense buildup.

• 20% felt that it would encourage nuclear arms reduction

negotiation.

• An overwhelming majority (87%) said that the show did not

change their minds about U.S. defense policies.

• The majority of viewers (64%) plan to take no action as a

result of watching the show, 7% plan to help the peace
movement, 5% plan to be better informed, 3% plan to build
or locate shelters.

Those who watched the show were asked if they thought the U.S. should have
fired its nuclear missiles at all:

• 54% felt that the U.S. should have fired its nuclear missiles.

• 30% felt that the U.S. should not have fired its missiles. 16%
said they didn't know.

• Before the show, 50% of viewers supported and 43% opposed a U.S.
investment in an ABM (anti-ballistic missile) defense system.
After the show, viewers split evenly: 46% support, 46% opposed,
and 8% did not know.

PRESIDENTIAL SUPPORT

If a presidential election were held today, the airing of the show

appears to have had no impact on support for Ronald Reagan in a Reagan vs.
Mondale race.

• Before viewing the show, 49% said they would support Mr. Reagan.
After the show, slightly more, 53% said they would support
Mr. Reagan. Support for Mr. Mondale was 38% before and 37%
after the show; Don't Know responses were 13% before and 10%
after the show.

Abt Associates Inc.

 ...

••• 3

• Support for President Reagan was highest among viewers in rural

Nebraska (70% before the show and 69% after), and lowest in the
Boston area (34% before and 36% after). In Kansas City, 44% of
viewers said they would vote for Mr. Reagan before the show and
47% after.

DEMOGRAPHIC DIFFERENCES
There were significant differences in attitudes about nuclear war
between people under and over age 35, men and women, and people in
different areas of the country.

• Young people were more concerned about the likelihood of nuclear

war. Before the show, 76% of those under age 35 felt that a
nuclear war was very or somewhat likely before the year 2000,
while 56% of those age 35 and older felt the same. After the
show, the figures were 72% among those under age 35 and 56% among
those age 35 and older.

• Approval for present policies regarding defense against nuclear

war was strongest among men (62% both before and after the show).
Approval among women was 44% before the show and 48% after.

• Those age 35 and older approved of present policies (60% before

and 59% after) more often than those under age 35 (46% before and
50% after).

• Approval for present policies was strongest in Nebraska (70%

before and after the show) and weakest in Boston (37% before and
45% after). In Kansas City, 52% of viewers approved before the
show and 49% after.

OPINIONS ABOUT_EVENTS IN THE SHOW

• When asked who launched the first nuclear bombardment in the

show, 49% said that they did not know, 37% believed that the
Soviet Union launched the first strike and 14% thought it was the
U.S.

• In answer to the question of who started the war, 57% said that
they did not know, 33% thought it was the Soviet Union and 10%
thought that it was the U.S.

• To the question of who expanded the war beyond Europe, 59% said
that they did not know, 29% thought that it was the Soviet Union
and 12% thought that it was the U.S.

• 17% of viewers felt that the show put the U.S. in a bad light.

• 39% felt that the show put the Soviet Union in a bad light.

Abt Aswciates Inc.

I
 ••• 4

Those who did not watch the show were asked their reasons for not
watching.

• 57% said that they did not have time or were not home (35%),
wanted to watch something else (11%) or gave no reason (11%).

• 21% said they were afraid to watch (10%) or did not want to think
about nuclear war (11%).

OPINIONS ABOUT ABC'S MOTIVES FOR AIRING THE SHOW.

When asked, "Why do you think ABC decided to show the movie?"

• 25% said that it was to make money, 22% said that it was to warn
people about nuclear war, 13% to inform people, 8% to inform
people of the need for a strong defense, 4% to promote disarmament,
3% to promote the peace movement, 12% said they did not know.

HOW THE SURVEY WAS MADE

The survey was conducted in two waves by Abt Associates Inc., a leading
policy research firm in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The initial wave was
conducted with 600 randomly selected respondents in three areas: Boston (200
interviews), Kansas City (200 interviews), and rural Nebraska (200 interviews),
on November 18, 19, and 20. The second wave was conducted on November 21 and
22 and consisted of two samples. The first sample ~as a re-interview of the
respondents who had participated in the initial wave, to determine if there
wer~ any significant differences in their attitudes towards nuclear war or
government defense policies after seeing "The Day After." 483 people were
re-contacted in this sample and of those people, 292, or 60%, had watched the
show. The sample of 292 viewers was supplemented with an additional 154
viewers of the show to control for selection bias, for a total sample of
446 viewers yielding a sampling error tolerance of+ 4.6%. There was no
significant difference between the two groups of viewers.

The following results of the survey show the actual questions asked
broken down by viewers' opinions before the show, viewers' opinions after the
show, the opinions of those who did not view the show and, where comparable,
the results of a national poll conducted by Abt Associates Inc. in May,
1982.

The survey was conducted by telephone from Abt Associates' central

telephone survey facility in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Abt Asoociates Inc.

\

RESULTS OF SURVEY ON NATIONAL DEFENSE

1. Do you feel that any kind of nuclear war between the United States
and the Soviet Union by the year 2000 is very likely, somewhat
likely or not likely at all?
Viewers Viewers
Before the After the Non- May 1982
Show Show Viewers Poll
Very likely••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 15 14 17 20
Somewhat likely ••••••••••••••••••••••• 50 49 46 43
Not likely at all••••••••••••••••••••• 32 35 34 31
l>c>n 't Kn.ow. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 3 2 3 6

2. Do you think that you would survive a nuclear war?

Viewers Viewers
Before the After the Non-
Show Show Viewers
Yes.. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 7 5 5
No..................................... 90 92 94
Don't Know ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 3 3 1

3. Do you think that it is possible to limit a nuclear war to military

targets on both sides and avoid destroying cities?
Viewers Viewers
Before the After the Non-
Show Show Viewers
Y,es ••• ••••••••• •••. •• •••••••••• •• •••••• 17 16 22
No..................................... 80 81 68
l)on 't Kn.ow. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 3 3 10

4. Do you approve or disapprove of our government's present policies

regarding defense against nuclear war?
Viewers Viewers
Before the After the Non- May 1982
Show Show Viewers Poll
Approve•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 54 58 66 46
Disapprove••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 36 32 25 35
Don 't Know. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 10 10 9 18

5. Do you think that the government is doing all it can to avoid nuclear
war or do you think it should do more?
Viewers Viewers
Before the After the Non-
Show Show Viewers
Doing all it can••••••••••••••••••••••• 37 41 44
Should be doing more••••••••••••••••••• 57 53 49
Don 't Know. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 6 6 7

Abt As&>ciates Inc.

6. Do you think that the federal government should spend more on defense,
less, or about the same as we are spending now?
Viewers Viewers
Before the After the Non-
Show Show Viewers
More................................... 27 25 29
I,ess... • • . • • • • • • . • . • • • • • . • . • • • • • • • . • • . • 30 30 16
Sa.me.. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 37 40 50
Don 't Know. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 6 5 5

7. Should the U.S. help defend its allies by threatening the use of
nuclear weapons?
Viewers Viewers
Before the After the Non-
Show Show Viewers
Yes. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 20 19 22
No..................................... 72 73 67
Don 't Ktlow. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 8 8 11

8. Should the U.S. help defend West Germany by threatening the use of
nuclear weapons?
Viewers
After the
Show
Yes. • • • • • . • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 21
No.. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 7 3
t>c>n 't Know. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 6

9. What effect if any do you think the movie will have on U.S. defense
policy?
Viewers Those who
After the Felt it Would
Show Have an Effect
None • •••••••·• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 51
Encourage U.S. and/or Soviet Buildup •••••••••••••••• 11 22
Encourage Nuclear Arms Reduction Negotiations
with the Soviet Union•••••••••••••••••••••••••• 10 20
Encourage Unilateral Nuclear Arms Reduction
by the United States ••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 6 12
Encourage the Development of More Effective
Defense against Soviet Nuclear Missiles •••••••• 6 12
Other••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 14 29
I>c>n 't Know. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 2 5

10. Has the movie changed your mind about U.S. defense policies?
Viewers
After the
Show
Yes. • . • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • . • • • • • • • • • • • • . • • • • • • • • • • • 11
No.................................................. 87
Dot) 't Know • ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• · 2

Abt Associates Inc.

11. As a result of seeing the movie, what actions, if any, are you
planning to take?
Viewers
After the
Show
None. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • . • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 64
Build or locate shelter••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 3
Make plans to evacuate•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 0
Move away from military area•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 0
Help peace movement•••••••••• ·••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 7
Write President/Congress to increase military forces •••••••••• 2
Write President/Congress to decrease military forces •••••••••• 3
Become better informed •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 5
Other • •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 8
Don't Know •• •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 7

12. Do you think the U.S. should have fired its nulcear missiles at all?
Viewers
After the
Show
Yes.. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • . • • • • • . • • . • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 54
No. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 30
Don 't Know. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 16

13. If we could shoot down 90% of all Soviet nuclear missiles after they
were launched, and 10% got through, would you support national
investment in such a defense?
Viewers Viewers
Before the After the Non-
Show Show Viewers
Yes • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 50 46 52
No..................................... 43 46 36
Don 't Know. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 7 8 12

14. If the 1984 election for president were held today, and the Republican
candidate was Ronald Reagan and the Democratic candidate was Walter
Mondale, who would you vote for?
Viewers Viewers
Before the After the Non-
Show Show Viewers
Re.agan.. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 49 53 54
Mondale•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 38 37 35
Don't Know.•••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 13 10 11

15. If the 1984 election for president were held today, and the Republican
candidate was Ronald Reagan and the Democratic candidate was Walter
Mondale, who would you vote for?
Boston Viewers Kansas City Viewers Nebraska Viewers
Before After Before After Before After

Reagan •••••••••• 34 36 44 47 70 69
Mondale ••••••••• 52 49 39 42 24 24
Don't Know •••••• 14 15 17 11 6 7

Abt Aswciates Inc.

16. Do you approve or disapprove of our government's present policies
regarding defense against nuclear war?
Male Female
Before After Before After
Approve ••••••••• 62 62 44 48
Disapprove •••••• 26 25 42 39
Don't Know •••••• 12 13 14 13

Under 35 35 And Over

Before After Before After
Approve ••••••••• 46 50 60 59
Disapprove •••••• 41 38 28 27
Don't Know •••••• 13 12 12 14

Boston Viewers Kansas City Viewers Nebraska Viewers

Before After Before After Before After
Approve ••••••••• 37 45 52 49 70 70
Disapprove •••••• 50 48 30 29 22 19
Don't Know •••••• 13 7 18 22 8 11

17. Do you feel that any kind of nuclear war between the United States and
the Soviet Union by the year 2000 is very likely, somewhat likely or not
likely at all?
Under 35 35 And Over
Before After Before After
Very likely ••••• 17 18 14 10
Fairly likely ••• 59 54 42 46
Not likely at all 24 27 39 42
Don't Know •••••• 0 1 5 2

18. Who launched the first massive nuclear bombardment?

Viewers
After the
Show
u.s •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 14
Soviet Union••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 37
Don't Know. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 49

19. In the movie, who do you think started the war, the U.S. or the Soviet
Union?
Viewers
After the
Show
u.s •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 10
Soviet Union••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 33
Don't Know •• ••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 57

20. Who expanded the war beyond Central Europe?

Viewers
After the
Show
u.s .................................... 12
Soviet Union ••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 29
Don't Know ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 59

Abt Associates Inc.

21. Do you think the movie put the U.S. in a bad light?
Viewers
After the
Show
Yes •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 17
No • •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 74
Don't Know ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 9

22. Do you think that the movie put the Soviet Union in a bad light?
Viewers
After the
Show
Yes.. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 39
No..................................... 51
Don't Know •• ••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 10

23. Why didn't you watch the movie?

Non-Viewers
After the Show
Afraid to .watch•••••••••••••••••••••••• 10
Don't want to think about nuclear war ••• 11
Wanted to watch something else •••••••••• 11
Forgot about it••••••••••••••••••••••••• 1
Didn't have time/wasn't home •••••••••••• 35
Don't have a T.V•••••••••••••••••••••••• 1
Other••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 20
Don't Know.............................. 11

24. Why do you think ABC decided to show the movie?

Viewers
After the Show
To promote peace•••••••••••••••••••••••• 1
To promote the peace movement ••••••••••• 3
To promote disarmament•••••••••••••••••• 4
To inform the public of the need
for a strong national defense......... 8
To scare people••••••••••••••••••••••••• 1
To warn people•••••••••••••••••••••••••• 22
For entertainment••••••••••••••••••••••• 3
For money••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 25
To inform people•••••••••••••••••••••••• 13
Other••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 8
Don't Know •• •••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 12

Abt Associates Inc.

f
Abt Associates Inc. November 21, 1983
lI 55 Wheeler Street
Cambridge, MA 02138 ID #_/_/_/_ 1-4/
!FOLLOW-UPI
SURVEY ON NATIONAL DEFENSE !CARD Ill
5/1
INTRODUCTION: WAVE 2 6/?
May I speak to ?
ARRANGE CALL BA~c=K-.- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Bello, my name is_,,,___ _ _ _ _ , and I'm calling from Abt Associates,
in Cambridge, Massachusetts. We interviewed you this past weekend, and
I'm calling back to ask you a few additional questions.

1. Did you watch any part of the movie Sunday night on ABC called "The
Day After"?
Yes (SKIP TO Q.3)•••••••••••••••••••• 1
No (ASK Q.2)••••••••••••••••••••••••• 2
REFUSED/DON'T KNOW (TERMINATE) ••••••• 3

2. Why didn't you watch the movie? (DO NOT READ LIST. CIRCLE
ALL THAT APPLY.)
AFRAID TO WATCH •••••••••••••••••••••• 1 10
DON'T WANT TO THINK ABOUT NUCLEAR
WAR. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 2 ,,
WANTED TO WATCH SOMETHING ELSE ••••••• 3 1l

FORGOT ABOUT IT•••••••••••••••••••••• 4

I
DIDN'T HAVE TIME/WASN'T HOME ••••••••• 1 !S"
DON'T HAVE A T.V ••••••••••••••••••••• 3
OTHER (SPECIFY) 4
'
'l,0
----------
OON'T KNOW. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 8

TERMINATE/KEEP THE QUESTIONNAIRE AND ATTACH FACE SHEET.

3. Why do you think ABC decided to show the movie? (DO NOT READ LIST.
CIRCLE ALL THAT APPLY.)
TO PROMOTE PEACE ••••••••••••••••••••• 1
TO PROMOTE THE PEACE MOVEMENT •••••••• 2
'
TO PROMOTE DISARMAMENT ••••••••••••••• 3
TO INFORM THE PUBLIC OF THE NEED
FOR A STRONG DEFENSE •••••••••••••••• 4
TO SCARE PEOPLE •••••••••••••••••••••• 1
TO WARN PEOPLE••••••••••••••••••••••• 2
FOR ENTERTAINMENT•••••••••••••••••••• 3
FOR MONEY•••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 4

OTHER (SPECIFY) Jo , ~ ¥s.(Nr 1

\~1cr
DON'T KNOW ••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 8

1
 !CARD hi
4. In the movie, who do you think started the war, the U.S. or the .\h~~
Soviet Union? ~ • Y'
U.S. • • • • • • • • • • • • . • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • . • 1 ,o
Soviet Union ••••••••••••••••••••••••• 2 i3
DON'T KNOW ••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 8 51"
5. Who expanded the war beyond central Europe?
U.S. . • • . • • • • • • • • • . • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 1 \l..
Soviet Union .•••••••••••••••••••••••• 2 2~
DON'T KNOW••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 8 SC\
6. Who launched the first massive nuclear bombardment?
u.s .••.•..•••..•.•.•.•••••••••••••.•• 1
Soviet Union ••••••••••••••••••••••••• 2
DON'T KNOW••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 8

7. Do you think the U.S. should have fired its nuclear missiles at
all?
Yes. . • . • • • • • . . . • . . . . . • • • • • • • . . • • • • . • . 1
No. . • • . . . . . • . . • • . • . . . . • . • • • . • • . • • • • • • 2
DON'T KNOW••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 8

8. What effect if any do you think the movie will have on U.S. defense
policy? (DO NOT READ LIST. CIRCLE ALL THAT APPLY.)
ENCOURAGE U.S. AND/OR SOVIET DEFENSE BUILDUP •••••••• l
ENCOURAGE NUCLEAR ARMS REDUCTION NEGOTIATIONS
"
WITH THE SOVIET UNION••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 2 lC>
ENCOURAGE UNILATERAL NUCLEAR ARMS REDUCTION
BY THE U. S. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 3
ENCOURAGE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE EFFECTIVE
DEFENSES AGAINST SOVIET NUCLEAR MISSILES •••••••••• 4
OTHER (SPECIFY)
----------------------- 1
NONE. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 2 S\
DON'T KNOW. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 8 ~

9. Do you think the movie put the U.S. in a bad light?

Yes. • . . • . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . • . . • . . • . • • 1
No. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 2
DON'T KNOW. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 8

2
 !CARD 1111

10. Do you think the movie put the Soviet Union in a bad light? "~
~
Yes.. . . • • . • . • • • • • • . . . . . • • • • • • • • . • • . • • 1 iC\
No. . . • • . • • • • • • . • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 2 s,
DON'T KNOW••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 8 \0

11. Has the movie changed your mind about U.S. defense policies?
Yes (ASK Q.12)••••••••••••••••••••••• 1
,,
No (SKIP TO Q.13) •••••••••••••••••••• 2
DON'T KNOW (SKIP TO Q.13) •••••••••••• 8

12. In what way did it change your mind? (PROBE.)

13. As a result of seeing the movie, what actions, if any, are you
planning to take? (DO NOT READ LIST. CIRCLE ALL THAT APPLY.)
NONE. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 1
IURJ 1'QHRl!I PUB/ BUILD SHELTER/. l,..Qt"ie5'\!(5,1;\ ~ ... 2
MAKE PLANS TO EVACUATE•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 3
MOVE AWAY FROM MILITARY AREA •••••••••••••••••••••••• 4
HELP PEACE MOVEMENT. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 1
WRITE PRESIDENT/CONGRESS TO INCREASE MILITARY
FORCES. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 2
WRITE PRESIDENT/CONGRESS TO DECREASE MILITARY
FORCES. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 3
OTHER (SPECIFY) e« co:mc. '9,..~i'Y: u,l::ocm«~ 4

cM-.r
OON'T KNOW. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 8

14. Do you think the U.S. should move its military bases far away from
cities, if it cost 10 billion dollars?
Yes. . . . . • . . . . . . . . • . . . . . . . . . . • . . • . . • . . 1
No. . • • • • • • . • • • . . • . . • • . . • • • . • • • • • • . • • • 2
DON'T KNOW••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 8

3
 fCARD Ill
15. Do you feel that any kind of nuclear war between the United States 'l >Swc.:SL
and the Soviet Union by the year 2000 is very likely, somewhat
e~ ~
likw.~~o&SLt
---•g~- li\f,1J.J\i»UJ\?
\":I-very likely •••••••••••••••••••••••••• 1 \~ '~
~'3' "C, Somewhat likely. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 2 ~ tlC\
,, 3~ Not likely at all •••••••••••••••••••• 3 '3'2- ,r
C. 3 DON'T KNOW........................... 8 a "4

16. In case of nuclear war, how great a danger do you think there
is that the area around where you live will be a target? Do
you think there is ••• (READ LIST.)
"'' Certain danger (ASK Q.17) •••••••••••• 1 i\
~O Great danger but not certain (ASK
Q.17) •.•.•.•••. ..•..••••••••••.•..• 2 B\
\~ Some danger (ASK Q.17) ••••••••••••••• 3 \\
C\ Little danger (SKIP TO Q.18) ••••••••• 4 ~
\ No danger at all (SKIP TO Q.18) •••••• 5 \
i DON'T KNOW (SKIP TO Q.18) •••••••••••• 8 \

17. What is it around where you live that would make it a target?
(DO NOT READ LIST. CIRCLE ALL THAT APPLY.)
"\ \ MILITARY BASE. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 1 5D
\" INDUSTRIAL CENTER (FACTORIES) •••••••• 2 \':lo
\(\ POPULATION CENTER (CITY)••••••••~•••• 3 -J-1
\C\ OTHER (SPECIFY)_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 4 ~

~ DON'T KNOW... • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 8 3
18 Do you think that you would survive a nuclear war?
f YES • ••••••••••••• ·• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 1 :a.
l't NO. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 2 C\ C)
\\ DON'T KNOW..... • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 8 3
19. Do you think that your children would survive a nuclear war?
'I YES •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 1 \\
~0 NO ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 2 I:\
- HAS NO CHILDREN. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 3 -
\\ DON'T KNOW ••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 8 - -
20. Do you think that the U.S. government is doing all it can to avoid
nuclear war or do you think it should do more?
~~ DOING ALL IT CAN ••••••••••••••••••••• 1 '!~
~~ SHOULD DO MORE. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 2 ~:f-
"111-' DON'T KNOW. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 8 C.

4
 !CARD 1111
21. Do you think that the federal government should spend more on defense, \11.,t.~•n,
less, or about the same as we are spending now? ~ ~
"'!!'1·
•
,.,,__,. ~-"\~wc.~r
2, More ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 1 2+ 'iS

\f. Less.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . • • • • . . . . • • • • • • • • • • 2 30 10
SO Same. • . • • • • . • • • • . • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 3 3~ '\O
S' DON'T KNOW. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 8 (o ~

22. Should the U.S. help defend its allies by threatening the use of
nuclear weapons?
"141- Yes. . . . . . • . . • . • . . . • . • . . • • . • • . . . . . . . • • 1
Ii.~ No ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 2

\\ DON'T KNOW ••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 8

23. Should the U.S. help defend West Germany by threatening the use of
nuclear weapons?
Yes. . . . . . . . . . . . • • • . . . . . . • • . . . . . . . . . . • 1

- No. • • • • • . . • . • . . . . • • • . . • . • • • • . . • . • • • • • 2

- DON'T KNOW••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 8

24. Do you think that it is possible to limit a nuclear war to military

targets on both sides and avoid destroying cities?
1..11- Yes. . . • . . . . • . . . . . . . . . . . . . . • . . • . . . • . . . 1 \':1-
C..r No ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 2 4i'C)
\~ DON'T KNOW •••••••••••.••••••••••••••• 8 2

25. If we could shoot down 90% of all Soviet nuclear missiles after they
were launched, and 10 percent got through, would you support national
investment in such a defense?
53 Yes (SKIP TO Q.27) ••••••••••••••••••• 1 St>
a-=t- No ( ASK Q. 26) • ••••••••••••••••••••••• 2 '-'3
\C DON'T KNOW (SKIP TO Q.27) •••••••••••• 8 =lo-

26. Why wouldn't you support such an investment? (DO NOT READ LIST.)
(CIRCLE ALL THAT APPLY.)
"31- '3(p
'3"\ IT WOULDN'T WORK ••••••••••••••••••••• 1
'=t- IT WOULD BE TOO EXPENSIVE •••••••••••• 2 (p 3
\1 ' IT WOULD INTENSIFY THE ARMS RACE ••••• 3 \Cp C\
~:?. OTHER (SPECIFY) \c9/o \~"\~ ~. «s'-"'o~•'4 4
2,0 '31'
C\ 0~ q ~

\"' DON'T KNOW••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 8 \~ Co

5
 !CARD Dll
27. About how much do you believe the federal government spent on ~\S;\H't'Q
civil defense this year per person? · That is, on preparedness ~~ ~
to protect our people a~ainst nuclear attack. (DO NOT READ LIST.)
mci.-"( \~, ._ ~n-v,;iwt,t
' UNDER $1 ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 1
~ $1 - $10. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 2
f' $11 - $100 ••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 3
S- $101 - $1,000 •••••••••••••••••••••••• 4
lO $1,001 OR MORE••••••••••••••••••••••• 5 '&
~ DON'T KNOW. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 8 l,~

28. How much do you think we should spend every year on civil defense
per person? (DO NOT READ LIST.)
3 UNDER $1 ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 1

r $1 - $10 ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 2
$11 - $100 ••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 3
~ $101 - $1,000 •••••••••••••••••••••••• 4
~ $1,001 OR MORE••••••••••••••••••••••• 5
~ DON'T KNOW. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 8

29. Do you approve or disapprove of our government's present policies

regarding defense against nuclear war?

""~
}c;;'
t.,(.
'l.<
Approve. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 1
Disapprove ••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 2
S'i'
3~
St
'3'2..
\'l °t DON'T KNOW. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 8 \0 lO

30. If the 1984 election for president were held today and the
Republican candidate was Ronald Reagan and the Democratic
candidate was Walter Mondale, who would you vote for?
S~ Ronald Reagan •••••••••••••••••••••••• 1 4~
I~ Walter Mondale. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 2 3 W
\ \ DON'T KNOW /UNDECIDED................. 8 \3

31. Do you plan to have any (more) children?

Yes •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 1 ~tr
No ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 2 bf:\
DON'T KNOW. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 8 3

Thank you very much for your time.

[INTERVIEWER, COMPLETE NEXT PAGE]

6
 a7

ICARD #11

NAME:
6-33/

INTERVIEWER CONFIRM:

TELEPHONE NUMBER:
------
(Area Code)
34-45/

TOWN:

RECORD SEX: MALE. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 1 75/

FEMALE. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 2
---------------------------------------------------------------
INTERVIEWER: --------------- DATE: _______ _______
..._ 76-79/

I
 b6

. !CARD #11
31. Do you have any ,--~:u •
\ ~h!~~es ................................. . 1" (o a,
'-S' No • •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 2 ~'2.
.- REFUSED • ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 7 -
32. Do you plan to have any (more) children?
\I Yes .•••..••••..•••••.•••••••••••••••• 1
~ No.......... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
3 DON'T KNOW. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 8

33. Do you have any grandchildren?

JC., Yes •••••••••••••••••• • •• ••••••••••••• 1
C.'i No ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 2

- REFUSED • ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 7 -
34. Which of the following categories covers your age? (READ LIST.)
l1- 18-24 ................................ 1
25-34 ....•................•........•. 2
35-44 •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 3
45-54 ............................... . 4
55-64 •••••••• ........................ 5
65 or over ••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 6

35. Are you a veteran?

REFUSED • .... . . . ... ... . ............. .
.• 7 -
2l Yes. . . • . . . . . . . . . . . . . . • . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 -:>.L
=IC\ No ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 2 1'1
And finally, what is your name?

NAME:

INTERVIEWER CONFIRM:

TELEPHONE NUMBER:
---------
(Are a Code)

TOWN:

RECORD SEX: MA.LE. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 1 ~

FEMALE • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 2 ~I
--------------------------------------·----------
INTERVIEWER:
---------------------- DATE:------------------
,· - .,
 Runner Walter Mondale, who, like six
of
other his party's eight presidential can-
didates, supports a freeze (exception:
Reubin Askew, former Florida Gover-
nor), cited the film for illustrating "the
heartache of nuclear war." California
Senator Alan Cranston went even further:
he organized fund raising parties tied to
The Day A/ter in 130 living rooms around
the nation.

earful of the political fallout, the

Reagan Administration launched
a counteroffensive that began be-
fore the film was aired. David Ger-
gen, White House director of communica-
tions, urged that the President appear on
TV before the broadcast to undercut its
impact, while Nevada Senator Paul Lax-
alt, chairman of the President's re-elec-
tion committee, wanted him to go on the
air afterward. The White House finally
volunteered Secretary of State George
Shultz for the discussion show moderated
by ABC's Ted Koppel after the movie,
even though many Administration staff-
ers believed that his appearance would be
an overreaction to what was, after all,
only a television show. Admitted a White
House aide: "Our gearing up contributed
to the hype around the movie."
With all the hoopla, the film was anti-
climactic, even naive. Those under 25 Under one roof: viewers at a church in Pasadena, Calif., look stunned as the missiles hit
seemed more affected than their elders.
Said Susan Connor, 20, a University of
Virginia junior: "Most of us grew up in film (53% to 37%) than before (49% to watched the 75-minute Viewpoint panel
homes never touch~d by war, and this 38%). The President, who previewed the discussion after the movie. "The film pre-
woke us up to the fact that it could hap- movie in early November and then sents a very simple-minded notion of the
pen." The national anxiety attack pre- watched it again on Sunday night, even nuclear problem," said former Secretary
dicted beforehand by freeze advocates ' allowed afterward that the film "was of State Henry Kissinger, one of the six
never came to pass. Phone banks set up by pretty well handled. It didn't say any- panelists. "Are we supposed to make poli-
antinuke groups to counsel frightened thing we didn't know, and that is that nu- cy by scaring ourselves to death'?" Unfor-
viewers received relatively few calls, and clear war would be horrible." tunately, constrained by time and format,
the worry among educators about the ef- ABC proudly declared The Day A/ter the panelists were scarcely able to clarify
fect on children seemed, in retrospect, unpolitical and, as evidence, pointed out matters (see ESSAY).
thoroughly overblown. Indeed, the special that the film deliberately left ambiguous Even under the best of circumstances,
effects struck much of the Star Wars gen- who fired the first shot. Yet by launching understanding and making nuclear policy
eration as tame. Said Mi- its mock war, the movie in are like stepping irrto a wilderness of mir-
chael Schill, 16, a Charlotte, effect repudiated the theory rors. There is one given in the debate: nu-
N.C., high school student: of deterrence, the main clear weapons cannot be disinvented, so
"There weren't a lot of peo- canon of U.S. nuclear doc- ways must be found to ensure that they
ple with their faces melting trine for nearly 40 years. It are never used . Said Lieut. General Brent
away." also took a gratuitous dig at Scowcroft, National Security Adviser to
Nationwide surveys the U.S. President who, if President Gerald Ford, during the ABC
showed that the movie only because the movie discussion: "There is no simple nostrum,
i
I
changed few opinions about
nuclear war. In a poll made
takes place in the present, no simple solution." Despite his some-
could be confused with times bellicose rhetoric, Ronald Reagan

,-•
I .
available exclusively to
TIME by ABT Associates of Shultz on TV afterward
Cambridge, Mass., viewers
Reagan. On the radio after has relied on the same doctrine of deter-
the attack, the show's Presi- rence as his predecessors. By maintaining
dent sounded more"eager to a nuclear arsenal large enough to devas-
were questioned before and after the film. win the war than to comfort th/nation. tate the Soviet Union even if it attacks the
The number who thought a nuclear war The chief failing of The Day A/ter was U.S. first, Washington hopes to prevent
between the U.S. and the Soviet Union that it did not offer much in the way of nuclear war. During the past 20 years, as
was 1101 likely by the year 2000 actually substantive information. "Nothing con- it built nuclear stockpiles to match those
rose slightly after the film, from 32% to crete came out . about what we can · do in the U.S., the Soviet Union in effect
35%. At the same time, the minuscule mi- about this," complained Roy Bailey, a re- adopted the same strategy.
nority who believed they could survive an tired college professor in Seattle. Editori- For deterrence to keep working, both
atomic blast dipped from 7% to 5%. alized the New York Times: "A hundred countries must remain confident that
Those who felt that the U.S. was doing all million Americans were summoned to be their counterstrike force is invulnerable.
it· could to avoid a nuclear conflict rose empathetically incinerated, and left on Just as important, each side must believe
from 37% to 41 %, while 58%, up from the true day after without a single idea to that the other side is capable of delivering
54% before the movie, approved of Wash- chew upon." But the film certainly whet- the promised retribution. Such a balance
ington's defense policies. Ronald Reagan ted the puhlic's curiosity. Some 50 million of terror, however, is inherently unstable.
was bombproof: paired against Wal• •.-iewe· r;, .,. •imes the average au- Pure deterrence does not exist, for it
Mondale, he actually did better after d,eu . ,:. n"' •; ..·w,, show, , ....Hild mean that each sid e possessed just
TIME. DECEMBER 5, 1983 39