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694 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER DELIVERY, VOL. 18, NO. 3, JULY 2003

Accounting for Data Uncertainty

Jovan Nahman and Dragoslav Peric

mance evaluation of a distribution system are analyzed. A crite-

rion is introduced for assessing the grade of uncertainty of the re-

sults obtained in the calculation of maximum loads, voltage drops,

energy losses, and characteristic reliability indices of a network if

some input parameters are only guesses based on limited experi-

ence, measurements, and/or statistical data. Reasonable outputs

bounds are determined based upon the shape of the function mea-

suring the uncertainty. High uncertainty of a result obtained indi-

cates that a re-examination of relevant uncertain input data would

be recommendable for a more precise quantification. The method

proposed is applied to a real life example for illustration.

Index Terms—Distribution systems, fuzzy mathematics, oper-

ating performances, uncertainty.

I. INTRODUCTION

distribution networks, various network performances have

to be analyzed. The most important among them are the max-

imum currents to be carried by the distribution feeders and asso- Fig. 1. Characteristic function of a FN.

ciated voltage drops, annual energy losses, and the reliability of

supplying consumers demands. Unfortunately, many of the in- variable by the uncertainty levels characterizing these intervals.

puts forming the basis for these studies are often assessed with Such a quantification of the uncertainties makes it possible to

some uncertainty, for many reasons. The annual load duration judge the credibility of the results of network analysis based

diagrams of consumers load demands can be only roughly pre- upon uncertain inputs. If the uncertainty grade of a result ob-

dicted. The same is the case with the failure transition rates of tained is too high, some of the most uncertain and most effective

network elements and associated renewal duration which are inputs should be reconsidered for a more precise quantification.

important for reliability evaluation [1]. As these input data sub-

stantially affect the results of network analysis, it is important to II. MATHEMATICAL MODEL

have some idea how uncertain are the results obtained if some

of the inputs can be only roughly assessed. An adequate tool for A. Engineering Interpretation of Fuzzy Algebra

incorporating the uncertainties in distribution network studies Consider a variable which values are not known with cer-

and for assessing the grade of acceptability of the results ob- tainty. This variable may be modeled as a normalized unimodal

tained can provide the fuzzy algebra. Some applications in re- fuzzy number (FN) as depicted in Fig. 1 [7]. FN models of

liability analysis of power systems using fuzzy arithmetic and guessed quantities are further on denoted by capital letters.

fuzzy logic have been suggested in the past [2]–[4]. Fuzzy tech- Parameter ( —cut) is introduced that may be

nique was also successfully used in consumer demand predic- interpreted as the level of uncertainty of the guess made at .

tion [5], [6]. This paper proposes a method for quantifying the To each , an interval of possible values is attached with

uncertainties of the input and output data in a distribution system lower bound and upper bound . For increasing , these

performance analysis. The method models the input and output bounds become closer to one another tending to a single value

quantities in distribution network analysis as fuzzy variables. as approaches to 1. This value is the kernel of , denoted .

The uncertainty grade for a fuzzy variable is measured by the The uncertainty of is the highest of all as the presumption

interval encompassing its most credible values. This interval is that has exactly a specified value must be taken with the least

obtained by weighting the possible intervals of the values of the confidence. If is modeled by a triangular FN, then this FN is

completely defined by the triple .

Manuscript received November 22, 1999. The uncertainty grade of , for , may be determined

J. Nahman is with the University of Belgrade, Belgrade 11000, Yugoslavia. as

D. Peric is with the School of Electrical Engineering, Belgrade 11000, Yu-

goslavia. (1)

Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/TPWRD.2003.813868

NAHMAN AND PERIC: DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM PERFORMANCE EVALUATION ACCOUNTING FOR DATA UNCERTAINTY 695

values obtained by weighting all possible intervals of these

values by associated uncertainty levels. This interval may be

considered as a most reasonable prediction of variable values

concerning its uncertainty. Interval bounds are given in relative

terms with the kernel of being the base value.

The variable lower bound relative declination of may

be determined as

(2)

(3)

It is clear that

(4)

for variable values may be taken as most reasonable for engi-

neering decisions made under uncertainty

(5)

B. Calculation Flow

Presume that is a function of inputs , . If

inputs are modeled as FNs, to encompass their uncertainty, then

is also a FN which may be formally expressed as

(6)

structed. In order to determine this function, a series of values Fig. 2. Sample distribution network feeder.

is generated from the whole interval (0,1). For each , the lower

and upper bounds of are determined as III. NETWORK MODEL

A. Maximum Feeder Branch Currents

(7) Consider a branching feeder of a radial distribution network

presented in Fig. 2. It is supposed that the feeder consists of

for

branches characterized by their length and the consumer de-

(8) mand load at their receiving end. The branches can be separated

from each other by opening the disconnectors at their sending

Bounds and for all define . ends that are not marked for simplicity.

As can be observed from (7), equals the minimum of To determine the maximum feeder branch currents and max-

function if values are within intervals (8). These intervals imum voltage drops along the feeder, the peak rms magnitudes

are determined by the lower and upper bonds of for for of load demand currents are used as input variables. They are

which the calculation is performed. equals the maximum presumed to be fuzzy variables quantified by triangular fuzzy

of function obtained for the same intervals of values. numbers. The following relationships correlate these currents

The calculation of and is trivial if is a mono- with currents flowing through feeder branches [8], [9] (here and

tonic increasing or decreasing function with regard to all argu- further on fuzzy variables are designated by capital letters)

ments being within the intervals in (8). In the first case,

is obtained from for and for ,

. In the latter case, should be inserted to (9)

obtain and to obtain . As will be shown here-

after, all distribution network quantities of interest are mono- where , are by 1 column vectors of real and

tonic increasing functions of their arguments which makes the imaginary parts of branch currents while , are

analysis easy and straightforward. corresponding column vectors of load demand peak currents.

696 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER DELIVERY, VOL. 18, NO. 3, JULY 2003

(10)

otherwise.

It is implied that .

Equations (9) and (10) simply state that the current flowing

through a feeder branch is equal to the sum of the load demand

currents supplied by this branch.

For illustration, the first 5 rows of for the feeder in Fig. 2

are (see equation at the bottom of the page).

From (9), it follows that the maximum branch currents also

are fuzzy quantities. The rms of the current in branch equals

where is a 1 by row vector built of the row elements magnitudes are dominantly determined by values

of . while drops affect the voltage phase shifts that are

very small usually. Therefore

B. Maximum Voltage Drops

Let us denote by , the diagonal by matrix of the lengths (18)

of feeder branches. Then, the voltage drops at load points are

which means, according to (16), that voltage drops are practi-

(12) cally monotonic increasing functions of load point demand cur-

rents. This facilitates the calculation of their bounds for various

where uncertainty levels .

The load duration diagram can be represented by several real

It is assumed that the feeder branches have the same impedance

current load levels of given duration, spread in descending order.

per unit length . From (12), it is clear that the elements of by

The load levels are treated as uncertain data and quantified by

1 column vector are fuzzy quantities as they depend

corresponding triangular FNs. In this application, three load

on .

levels are presumed to be sufficiently representative: maximum,

Bearing in mind that

medium, and minimum load level (Fig. 3). The load level dura-

(14) tion and the power factor are presumed to be the same for all

consumer loads. Consumer loads have been considered to be of

with and being the real and imaginary parts of , from (12) the same type and synchronous which means that all consumers

and (14), it follows: have the characteristic load levels approximately at the same

time. However, the load levels and their uncertainty grades for

(15) various consumers generally differ from consumer to consumer.

Based upon the assumptions made, the annual energy losses

where

equal

(16)

The rms values of voltage drops at feeder load points are (19)

It is clear from (19), that the energy losses are monotonic in-

(17) creasing functions of load demand current maximum, medium,

with and being elements of vectors and minimum values represented as fuzzy variables. It makes it

and , respectively. As known, the voltage possible to easily determine bounds for various .

NAHMAN AND PERIC: DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM PERFORMANCE EVALUATION ACCOUNTING FOR DATA UNCERTAINTY 697

TABLE I

LOAD DEMAND CURRENTS

BRANCH LENGTHS

If there is no back feed available, as presumed, each failure

of a branch, say , interrupts the supply to all branches and

associated loads fed by this branch during its repair. Hence, the

expected energy not supplied due to branch failures is

(20)

It is assumed that the feeder failure rate per unit length , sus-

tained interruption duration , and the average real power de-

mands of customers are fuzzy variables as all of these quan-

tities cannot be predicted with certainty.

Here, with reference to Fig. 3

TABLE III

(21) NUMBER OF CUSTOMERS

with being the rated network voltage and year.

The total expected energy not supplied annually equals

(22)

during the fault location. is the uncertain duration of this

activity.

The system average interruption frequency index is defined

as the ratio of the total number of customer interruptions and

the total number of customers served

portional to the failure transition rate per unit feeder length.

is also a linearly increasing function of fault repair and

(23) location duration. Thus, lower and upper bounds for all of these

three performance indices can be easily obtained for each uncer-

tainty level from the lower and upper bounds of the associated

where is the number of customers served at load point . aforementioned input data for the same .

The system average interruption duration index is defined as

the ratio of the sum of customer interruption durations and the IV. APPLICATION EXAMPLE

total number of customers A. Feeder Data

A real life example of a 10-kV overhead feeder is considered,

(24) that is displayed in Fig. 2. The main feeder data are given in

Tables I–IV. The data are acquired from experience and limited

measurement. Triangular fuzzy numbers quantifying the input

with being by 1 column vector of numbers of customers quantities are given in the general form . is

served at feeder load points. the guess used in the conventional analysis.

As , , and are functions of fuzzy vari-

B. Calculation Procedure

ables, these indices are fuzzy variables too. We can observe

from (20), (21), and (22) that is a monotony increasing The calculation procedure comprises the following steps.

function of consumer currents, failure transition rate per unit 1) Using (10) and (13), determine matrices and for

feeder length, and repair duration. and are pro- the feeder under consideration.

698 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER DELIVERY, VOL. 18, NO. 3, JULY 2003

TABLE IV 3) By inserting the values from the previous step into (11)

OTHER SAMPLE DATA and (18), determine the lower bounds of branch peak

currents and voltage drops for .

4) Using (9) and data from step 2, determine the lower

bounds of branch currents , , and

for and insert these values in (19) to calculate the

lower bound of annual energy losses for .

5) By inserting the lower bounds of , , and

2) Determine lower bounds of all fuzzy input data for for in (21), the lower bound of elements

from their membership functions. of power demands for are obtained.

NAHMAN AND PERIC: DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM PERFORMANCE EVALUATION ACCOUNTING FOR DATA UNCERTAINTY 699

CALCULATION RESULTS However, the annual energy losses, which depend on the load

duration diagrams of consumers, characterized by three load

levels for each load point, are more considerably affected by

the fuzziness of input data. The uncertainty of the is

high if all input data are fuzzy. This particularly holds for the

upper bound of , indicating that might be much

greater than its kernel value which would be taken as relevant

in the conventional approach. For illustration, from (5) and the

corresponding data in Table V, we obtain the following bounds

of if all inputs are uncertain

transition rate and may be taken as comparatively low. How-

ever, the fuzziness of is more pronounced as it is addi-

tionally affected by fault location and repair times that we usu-

ally cannot precisely predict. It is worth noting that upper bound

6) By inserting values from the previous step and lower declinations are high in absolute terms and much greater

bounds of , , and for in (20) and (22), lower than for the majority of the analyzed outputs. This means

bound of is obtained for . that, in reality, the crisp values–based analysis might underes-

7) By inserting lower bounds of , , and for timate the examined performance indices and lead to too opti-

in (23) and (24), the corresponding lower bounds of mistic conclusions. The uncertainty of the calculated outputs is

and are calculated. tolerable if only one among the inputs is fuzzy to some extent.

8) Determine upper bounds of all fuzzy input data for The fuzziness of two or more inputs produces a high value

from their membership functions. that is greater than the sum of the declinations generated by the

9) Using the data from step 8 repeat steps 3–7 with upper inputs individually.

bounds to determine the upper bounds of all considered

performance indices for .

10) Increase for, say , and repeat steps 2–9 V. CONCLUSIONS

for this increased value of to determine lower and A method for assessing and incorporating the effects of uncer-

upper bounds of all considered performance indices for tain data upon the performance analysis of distribution systems

the new value of . is proposed. Criteria for determining the uncertainty of both the

11) Repeat step 10 by gradually increasing values until input and output quantities are suggested as well as a reason-

value is reached. In such a way, the data for the able way to determine the bounds of calculated performance in-

construction of membership functions of all considered dices reflecting the uncertainties of input data. The application

performance indices are obtained. of the suggested approach to a real life example has shown that

12) Using (1) and (5) and the data on membership func- the is the performance index most affected by the un-

tions obtained in previous steps, determine the uncer- certainties of input data and should not be taken as a relevant

tainty grades and reasonable bounds of considered per- index for any decision making unless the associated inputs are

formance indices. well known. Second most input data sensitive parameters are

and annual energy losses but to a considerably lower

C. Calculation Results degree. Maximum feeder currents and voltage drops and the

Table V quotes the results of the analysis. The effects of un- index are moderately fuzzy.

certain input data upon the uncertainty of the quantities charac-

terizing the distribution system performances are examined. The REFERENCES

first column lists the analyzed outputs. The next three columns [1] R. E. Brown and J. R. Ochoa, “Distribution system reliability: Default

give the calculated kernels (these coincide with the values ob- data and model validation,” IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 13, pp.

tainable using the conventional, crisp approach), and the asso- 704–709, May 1998.

[2] V. Miranda, “Fuzzy reliability analysis of power systems,” in Proc. 12th

ciated certainty weighted percentage bounds of declination of Power Syst. Comput. Conf., Dresden, Aug. 19–23, 1996, pp. 558–566.

kernels. The last column indicates which input quantity is taken [3] J. Backes, H. J. Koglin, and L. Klein, “A flexible tool for planning trans-

to be uncertain and modeled as the corresponding fuzzy number mission and distribution networks with special regard to uncertain relia-

bility criteria,” in Proc. 12th Power Syst. Comput. Conf., Dresden, Aug.

according to Tables I–IV. Characteristic functions calculated for 19–23, 1996, pp. 567–573.

the analyzed outputs are presented in Fig. 4. [4] J. Nahman, “Fuzzy logic based network reliability evaluation,” Micro-

The maximum load current that is flowing through branch 1 electron. Reliab., vol. 37, no. 8, pp. 1161–1164, 1997.

[5] M. Chow, J. Zhu, and H. Tram, “Application of fuzzy multi-objective

and the maximum voltage drop occurring at node 43 depend on decision making in spatial load forecasting,” IEEE Trans. Power Syst.,

the load peak currents only. The uncertainty of both of these vol. 13, pp. 1185–1190, Aug. 1998.

700 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER DELIVERY, VOL. 18, NO. 3, JULY 2003

[6] Sprinivasan, C. S. Chang, and A. C. Liew, “Demand forecasting using Dragoslav Peric was born in Raca, Yugoslavia, in 1958. He received the

fuzzy neural computation, with special emphasis on weekend and public Dipl.Eng., M.Sc., and PF.D. degrees in power engineering from the Faculty

holiday forecasting,” IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 10, pp. 1897–1903, of Electrical Engineering at the University in Belgrade, Yugoslavia, in 1983,

Nov. 1995. 1989, and 1997, respectively.

[7] G. J. Klir and B. Yuan, Fuzzy Sets and Fuzzy Logic. Englewood Cliffs, Currently, he is a Professor with the School of Electrical Engineering, Bel-

NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1995. grade, Yugoslavia. His main fields of interest are distribution systems operation

[8] M. Papadopoulos, N. D. Hatziargyriou, and M. E. Papadakis, “Graphic and planning and computer applications.

aided interactive analysis of radial distribution networks,” IEEE Trans.

Power Delivery, vol. 2, pp. 1297–1302, Oct. 1987.

[9] J. Burke, Power Distribution Engineering. New York: Marcel Dekker,

1994, p. 96.

Jovan Nahman was born in Belgrade, Yugoslavia. He received the Dipl. Eng.

Grade and the TechD degree in electric power engineering from the Faculty of

Electrical Engineering at the University in Belgrade, Yugoslavia, in 1960 and

1969, respectively.

Currently, he is a Professor with the Power System Department at the Uni-

versity of Belgrade, where he has been since 1960.

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