Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
4, DECEMBER 2017
Abstract—This paper presents a transmission line failure model The ever increasing power demands overload existing trans-
that is enhanced with the dynamic thermal rating (DTR) system. mission networks. Accordingly, the two possible solutions are
The failure model consists of two parts. The first part is the Arrhe- constructing new lines and maximizing the capacities of exist-
nius model and it considers the loading effect of the DTR system
as a result of operating at a higher temperature than the static ing transmission networks [4]. The latter, has appealed much
thermal rating system. The second part is the Weibull model and interests due to it being relatively cheaper, easier, and faster to
it considers the end-of-life (natural ageing) failure effect of the be implemented [5], [6]. One of the methods for maximizing
transmission line. The proposed model is compared with the nor- the capacity of transmission lines is the dynamic thermal rating
mal distribution model that considers only the end-of-life failure (DTR) system [7], [8]. The DTR system raises the capacity of
effect of the transmission line. This paper also investigates the un-
certainty effects of the line failure model parameters, effects of the the transmission networks based on the real-time weather data,
DTR system reliability, and the effects of the weather data cor- and this has a number of advantages. First, it increases the load-
relation on the reliability performance of the power system. The ability of transmission systems and improves its resiliency under
proposed methodology and case studies were performed on the the N-1 contingencies. Second, the system operators are able to
IEEE-reliability test network. serve more load points and secure financial profits even at the
Index Terms—Ageing, Arrhenius model, end-of-life, failure event of contingencies. In contrast, the traditional static thermal
model, loading, Monte Carlo, power system reliability, thermal rating (STR) system fixes low ratings for the transmission lines
stress, transmission line, unavailability. based on the conservative assumptions of the weather data. If
I. INTRODUCTION the weather data is worse than those assumed for determining
the STR, line conductors overheating will occur and this will
ELIABIILTY assessments of the bulk electric systems
R play a major role in the planning, operation, and manage-
ment of the power transmission networks. This kind of assess-
lead to damages. For most of the time, the weather profiles are
much more desirable than those assumed for the STR and im-
posing the STR under this condition will lead to a lot of unused
ment is known as the Hierarchical Level (HL)-II reliability anal- line capacity.
ysis, and it focuses on the continuity of supply for end users by As the STR system suppresses the actual capacities of the
considering the constraints of the transmission network [1], [2]. transmission networks, the loading of the networks based on
The criticality and the foothold of the HL-II studies within the the DTR system is naturally much higher than those based on
electrical power system industry are demonstrated through sev- the STR system. A higher loading also leads to a faster trans-
eral global electricity regulation programs that impose penalties mission line ageing. To date, this ageing effect has yet to be
for bad performing reliability indices [3]. The appropriateness incorporated into the HL-II studies as most of the analyses
of the planning decisions is greatly affected by the accuracy consider only the STR system, which has insignificant loading
of the failure models use in the HL-II studies. In this sense, effects [9]. Thus, further HL-II studies that focus on the loading
the refinement of the failure models is essential for the HL-II effects of the DTR system are needed. Such studies will pro-
studies. vide a more accurate study of the reliability impact of the DTR
system on the power networks. This is important as the DTR
Manuscript received April 3, 2017; revised May 4, 2017, May 29, 2017, and system is increasingly being accepted as an effective way to
August 7, 2017; accepted August 10, 2017. Date of publication August 29, 2017; alleviate transmission network congestions [10]. Besides that,
date of current version November 29, 2017.This work was supported in part by
the Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) short term grant: PELECT/304/60313051 from a more general perspective, ageing due to loading and nat-
and the Taiwan Ministry of Science and Technology grant: MOST-106-2218-E- ural ageing (end-of-life) are also one of the major assessments
027-010. Associate Editor: S.-Y. Hsieh. (Corresponding Author: Jiashen Teh.) for power system utilities worldwide due to the high cost of
J. Teh is with the School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Universiti
Sains Malaysia, Penang 14300, Malaysia (e-mail: jiashenteh@usm.my). replacing transmission lines (in terms of millions). Thus, the
C.-M. Lai is with the Department of Vehicle Engineering and the Graduate formulation of an assessment that investigates the power sys-
Institute of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, National Taipei University tem reliability indices based on the age and loading effects, as
of Technology, Taipei 106, Taiwan (e-mail: pecmlai@gmail.com).
Y.-H. Cheng is with the Department of Information and Communication a result of the DTR system applications, will contribute to the
Engineering, Chaoyang University of Technology, Taichung 41349, Taiwan better planning decisions of the transmission network.
(e-mail: yuhuei.cheng@gmail.com). Modeling the lifetime of the transmission line covers wide
Color versions of one or more of the figures in this paper are available online
at http://ieeexplore.ieee.org. arrays of research disciplines. It involves the studying of the
Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/TR.2017.2740158 physical properties of the transmission line, the environment at
0018-9529 © 2017 IEEE. Personal use is permitted, but republication/redistribution requires IEEE permission.
See http://www.ieee.org/publications standards/publications/rights/index.html for more information.
TEH et al.: IMPACT OF THE REAL-TIME THERMAL LOADING ON THE BULK ELECTRIC SYSTEM RELIABILITY 1111
which the line is operated at, the electrical and thermal loading
that is applied to the line, the in-service years of the line and
etc. [11]–[13]. All these findings, however, need to be translated
into the probability of failure or the probabilistic function of
time-to-failure, before they can be used to refine the power sys-
tem reliability assessments [2], [14]. In this regard, there have
been many studies that examine the reliability of transmission
networks. In particular, the studies that have incorporated the
DTR system are given in [15]–[20]. Although these studies pro-
vide a framework for evaluating the impact of the DTR system
on the reliability performance of the power system, all of them
use only the historical failure data and statistical techniques
to formulate probabilistic distribution functions (PDF) of the
transmission lines. In other words, the DTR line loading and the
line ageing effects as a result of operating at a higher conductor
temperature were never considered. Such reliability modeling
of the transmission line lifetime may not be sufficient as the
operational factors (i.e., loading) have a significant impact on
the transmission line conditions. Therefore, this presents a gap
that this paper intends to fill.
This paper refines the failure model of transmission lines that
are incorporated with the DTR system. The failure model ex-
presses the lifetime of the transmission lines as a function of
its loading through the Arrhenius model. In order to differenti-
ate the loading effects on different transmission line ages, the
Arrhenius model is also combined with the Weibull PDF. The
proposed refinements are compared with the normal distribu-
tion model that considers only natural ageing failure. Finally, Fig. 1. Enhanced IEEE RTN.
the studies are carried out in the IEEE-reliability test network
(RTN) [21] and the power system reliability performance is isolated areas. On the other hand, Region C (138 kV) is full of
measured using the expected-energy-not-served (EENS) index. load points and it represents compact residential area and city
centers, which can safely be assumed to be much further away
II. POWER SYSTEM RELIABILITY ANALYSIS from Region A.
The power system reliability analysis in this paper is per- Each transmission corridor in the modified RTN is assumed
formed on the IEEE-RTN [21] and it is carried out based on to be enhanced with a DTR system. Each DTR system is further
the nonsequential Monte Carlo (NSMC) simulation process [2]. assumed to constitute a weather profile from a unique location.
The main steps of NSMC are: 1) load level selection, 2) com- The lines that have a common tower or share the same path
ponent state sampling, 3) weather data sampling, 4) network are considered as a single transmission corridor. Based on these
response analysis, and 5) reliability index calculation. The test assumptions, there are a total of 21 transmission corridors in
network and all the NSMC steps are discussed below. the modified IEEE-RTN. Following that, 21 sets of weather
data from 21 unique locations were sampled from the British
A. Reliability Test Network (RTN) Atmospheric Data Center website [22]. The sampled weather
data are the weather parameters needed for the calculation of the
The original IEEE-RTN is a 24-bus network with 33 transmis- line DTR – wind speed, wind angle, and ambient temperature.
sion lines, 32 generating units, 10 generator busses, and 17 load The transmission corridor weather data from within the same
buses. It has a total installed generating capacity of 3405 MW region were sampled from the locations that are about 50 km
and a total system peak load of 2850 MW. The original RTN was apart. One the other hand, the transmission corridor weather
modified by separating the network into three regions according data in between the regions were sampled from the locations
to the voltage level – A, B, and C, as shown in Fig. 1. Region A that are about 100-km away from each other.
is further away from region C than its neighboring region B, and
this applies to the other two regions. Region A and C correspond
to the part of the network with 230 and 138 kV, respectively. B. Load Level Selection
Region B is the part of the network, which interconnects Re- The 20-step load model given in [2] is adopted in this paper
gion A and Region C. The basis of these assignments is that for the NSMC simulation. At least 100 000 simulations are
the network with the same voltage level can generally be con- conducted in order to avoid the premature convergence of the
sidered to belong to a region. Region A (230 kV) is pack with NSMC simulation. In each simulation, a random number in
generators and they are normally located at less populated and between 0 and 1 is generated from the uniform distribution
1112 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON RELIABILITY, VOL. 66, NO. 4, DECEMBER 2017
load shedding is performed to relief line overload situations. In its unavailability in the next period of time t cannot be evaluated
order to ensure an optimal relief, generation redispatch is given independently of all the events associated to the component
the priority over load shedding as the latter option causes more leading up to T. This unavailability in between the period of T
loss of load. Each run of the DCOPF is as follows: and T+t, is known as the a posteriori failure probability and it
can be estimated using the discretization method given in [29].
min LCi (3) The estimation is performed by dividing the time period (T, T+t)
i∈Ω L B into K equal subintervals. Then, the unavailability U is given as
subject to 1
K
U= Pj • U Dj (9)
P Gi + LCi = P Di (4) t j =1
i∈Ω G i∈Ω L B i∈Ω L B
where Pj is the probability of ageing failure and U Dj is the av-
P Gm
i
in
≤ P Gi ≤ P Gm
i
ax
, i ∈ ΩG (5) erage duration of Pj during the subinterval j. Both Pj and U Dj
0 ≤ LCi ≤ P Di , i ∈ ΩL B (6) are estimated by
T +j Δ t T +(j −1)Δ t
n f (t)dt − T f (t)dt
GSFl,i × (P Gi − P Di ) ≤ flm ax , l ∈ ΩL (7) Pj = T ∞ (10)
T f (t)dt
i=1
Δt
where PG is the power generated; LC is the load curtailment; U Dj = t − (2j − 1) (11)
PD is the power demand; ΩL B is the set of all load buses; ΩG is 2
the set of all generators. P Gm in and P Gm ax are the minimum where Δt is the subinterval length and f(t) is the chosen PDF for
and maximum capacity of the generator, respectively. GSFl,i is modeling the ageing failure.
the generation shift factor of line l to generator i; flm ax is the
maximum capacity of line l; and ΩL is the set of transmission A. Line Failure Model Due to Natural Ageing
lines.
Modeling the line ageing failure without considering the line
In this optimal power flow (OPF), the load and generation
loading effects is akin to model only the line natural ageing
balance constraint is given by (4). Equations (5) and (6) are
effect. In this case, the normal distribution is chosen as the f(t) in
the conventional generator load curtailment limits, respectively.
(10) due to it being the most commonly used PDF for describing
Equation (7) represents the power flow constraint for the trans-
the mean and standard deviation of data. In this case, the data
mission line. flm ax changes according to the rating given by the
are the life of the transmission line. This, however, leads to the
DTR system.
integration that has no explicit analytical expression in (10).
Instead, (10) can be accurately estimated using a polynomial
F. Reliability Index Calculation
approximation as in (12) [29]:
In general, the reliability index is calculated by taking the
Q (T + (j − 1) Δt − μ) − Q (T + jΔt − μ)
number of a particular event over the total number of samplings Pj =
(12)
that have been performed. In this paper, the EENS is selected as Q T σ−μ
the recorded reliability index as it has the longest convergence
time among the other reliability indices [2]. Hence, monitor- where μ and σ are the mean and the standard deviation of the
ing the convergence of the EENS will ensure that sufficient normal distribution. In this paper, μ = 50 years and σ = 15
samplings have been performed. The NSMC simulation is com- years, are used [30], [31]. The function Q can be calculated by
pleted when the EENS coefficient of variation is less than or w (y) if y ≥ 0
Q (y) =
equal to 5%. The EENS is 1 − w (−y) f y < 0
ENS (MWhr)
EENS = (8) w (y) = z (y) b1 s + b2 s2 + b3 s3 + b4 s4 + b5 s5
N 2
where ENS is the energy not served at each simulation. It is cal- 1 y 1
z (y) = √ exp − ,s =
culated as the difference between the total demand and the total 2π 2 1 + ry
demand that is satisfied. N is the total number of simulations. r = 0.2316419, b1 = 0.31938153, b2 = −0.356563782
Each simulation is considered a year.
b3 = 1.781477937, b4 = −1.821255978, b5 = 1.330274429.
III. MODELING TRANSMISSION LINE FAILURE The unavailability of the transmission lines due to its natural
In order to incorporate the ageing failure effect into the bulk ageing for age between 1 to 60 years are calculated for a one year
electric system reliability assessments, the unavailability of a period and the results are shown in Fig. 3. The figure indicates
component due to its ageing failure needs to be estimated. An that the unavailability of the line increases exponentially as the
appropriate way to do that is to model the ageing failure using line age increases. The unavailability values of the line at age
a suitable PDF [1], [14]. According to both of the references, 10 or younger are small due to the insignificant natural ageing
given a component that has survived up to the period of time T, effect during this period. This line failure model is also known
1114 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON RELIABILITY, VOL. 66, NO. 4, DECEMBER 2017
Fig. 4. Unavailability of transmission line due to its loading and natural ageing
for age between 1 to 60 years.
necessary and it will only affect the numerical results of the re-
liability model presented in this paper. If the data of line loading
and its corresponding failure record be available in the future,
the presented reliability framework can work equally well with
the newly derived A and B values. The numerical results, how-
ever, will change based on the new values.
That being said, two equations were formed to estimate A
and B. First, the equivalent Weibull parameters, α and β, were
determined from the normal distribution parameters using the
approximation technique given by Wenyuan [39]. These values
were found to be α = 56 and β = 3. The average loading on
the IEEE-RTN is determined under the condition of no forced- Fig. 5. Proposed reliability evaluation framework by considering the refined
transmission line failure models.
outages (perfectly reliable DTR system and lines) based on the
20-step load model. Under this condition, the average loading of
all the IEEE-RTN lines was determined as θ = 17 °C. Hence, in model. This is followed by the random sampling of the DTR
the first equation, α = 56 corresponds to θ = 17 °C. Second, system statuses and weather data. The DTR system is modeled
the nominal rating of the aluminum conductor steel-reinforced using a simple two-state Markov model as given in [17]. The
(ACSR) transmission line at θ = 93 °C is adopted [40] and it DTR system statuses dictate the opportunity to uprate the line
is assumed to correspond to α = μ = 50. Solving these two rating. If the DTR system is down, the line rating will revert
simultaneous equations produced A = 32 and B = 158. The back to STR. The weather data is sampled by considering the
shape parameter, β = 3, is maintained and it is used in (17). correlations among the weather from different locations.
The unavailability of the transmission lines due to its loading The simulation procedure then proceeds according to either
and natural ageing for age between 1 to 60 years are calculated LFM-1 or LFM-2 is employed. When LFM-2 is employed, an
for a one year period and the results are shown in Fig. 4. Two additional process is required to determine the initial line load-
loadings levels were chosen for the illustration - loading tem- ing when there is no line forced outages. This line loading
perature of the IEEE-RTN under the no forced outage condition is determined by executing the DCOPF. After obtaining the
(17 °C) and the nominal loading temperature of the ACSR line line loading for each transmission corridor, the corresponding
(93 °C). The figure indicates that the unavailability of the line at line unavailability is determined according to (9)–(11). When
age 10, in contrast to Fig. 3, is significant when considering the LFM-1 is employed, the additional process is not required as
loading and natural ageing effects. In both of the loading tem- the model does not consider the line loading effect, and the line
peratures in Fig. 4, the period of age when the line unavailability unavailability can be determined directly.
is insignificant drops to about 1–5 years, from about 1–10 years Next, the transmission line statuses are sampled according to
as shown in Fig. 3. This line failure model is also known as the their respective line unavailability and the DCOPF is executed
“Line failure model (LFM)-2” in the rest of this paper for the to determine the response from the network. The DCOPF is per-
purpose of simplifying the reference to this line failure model. formed until the NSMC simulation is converged and the EENS
is used as the criteria of convergence. The EENS is recorded
and is used to determine the reliability performance.
IV. RELIABILITY IMPACT OF LINE LOADING AND AGEING
The developed NSMC simulation (see Section II) for assess- V. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
ing the reliability of the IEEE-RTN by considering the refined
A. Reliability Impacts of the Line Failure Models
line failure models (see Section III) are summarized in Fig. 5.
The figure shows that the reliability evaluation begins by In this section, the reliability impact of the DTR system
the random sampling of the load level from the 20-step load on the IEEE-RTN was performed based on the proposed
1116 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON RELIABILITY, VOL. 66, NO. 4, DECEMBER 2017
TABLE I
EENS OF LINE FAILURE MODELS WITH AND WITHOUT
THE LINE LOADING EFFECTS
158.64 182.31
TABLE III
EENS OF VARIOUS DTR SYSTEM RELIABILITY
100 182.31
80 259.60
60 406.97
40 569.30
20 739.67
STR 907.67
only the natural ageing lead to an optimistic power system re- Fig. 7. Boxplot of the line unavailability as a function of the DTR system
availability.
liability analysis. The line failure model that considers also the
line loading, as proposed in this paper, provides a more realis-
tic response of the network and subsequently a more accurate
reliability index. events have less influence towards the final EENS values. More-
over, the response of the DCOPF in each combination is unique.
C. Reliability Impact of the DTR System Hence, the EENS that is calculated as a result of the DCOPF, is
distributed nonproportionally as shown in Table III.
In this section, the impact of the DTR system availability The distribution of the line unavailability as a function of the
on the reliability performance of the IEEE-RTN is assessed. DTR system reliability was also analyzed and this is presented
In order to do that, the availability of the DTR system was as a boxplot in Fig. 7. The unavailability of the line is obtained
decreased from 1 (fully reliable) to 0.2 using a step decrease of according to the procedure described in Fig. 5. The figure shows
0.2. Only LFM-2 was implemented as it is proven in the previous that the longer the DTR system is operated (higher reliability),
sections that it can assess the reliability of the power network the higher the chances are to increase the unavailability of the
more accurately. The effects of the DTR system (at various line. For example, the range of the line unavailability when the
availability values) on the reliability of the IEEE-RTN were DTR system is operated for 80% of the time is higher than
assessed according to the proposed framework in Fig. 5, and the when the DTR system is operated for only 20% of the time. The
results are given in Table III. All the results were obtained based reason for this is when the DTR system is operating, it raises
on a 5-year planning period study. the rating of the line and subsequently the line loading when
The results show that the reliability of the DTR system has the demand level is high. A higher line loading then, leads to
a significant impact towards the reliability performance of the a higher line unavailability. In the similar situation, if the DTR
IEEE-RTN. As the availability of the DTR system decreases, system is not operating, the line revert back to its STR, which
the EENS values of the IEEE-RTN increases. Notice that the limits its maximum capacity that lowers the line loading and
EENS value when the DTR system is fully reliable is the same reduces the line unavailability.
as the EENS value in Table I. Table III also shows the reliability Analyzing both Table III and Fig. 7 together suggest that
performance of the network when no DTR system was installed, although the DTR system increases the line unavailability, the
and this represents the STR operational strategy of the transmis- power system reliability benefit provided by the DTR system
sion line. Considering only the DTR system cases, the highest far outweighs its drawback of raising the line unavailability. The
recorded EENS value is 739.67 MWhr/yr when the DTR sys- values of the EENS consistently decrease when the reliability
tem is only operational for 20% of the time. This value is almost of the DTR system improves.
three times higher than the EENS when the DTR system is fully
functional. The numerical values of the reliability performance
D. Reliability Impact of the Weather Correlation Factor
in Table III will likely to be different in a real system as this is
affected by the DTR, load levels, network topology, reliability of In this section, the correlation effect of the weather data is
the components, and surrounding weather conditions. Nonethe- investigated on the LFM-2 only as it assesses the reliability of
less, the proposed methodology is still applicable. Notice that the power network more accurately than LFM-1. This study was
the EENS values in Table III are not distributed proportion- performed according to the proposed reliability framework in
ally in between 100% reliable DTR system and the STR cases. Fig. 5 with and without considering the correlation factor during
The reason is the EENS values were determined using a com- the weather data samplings. A 5-year regulatory planning period
bination of Monte Carlo simulation and DCOPF. The Monte is used as well, and all the DTR systems were assumed to be
Carlo simulation handles stochastic component behaviors such fully reliable in order to avoid it from masking the correlation
as the combinations of various DTR system and transmission factor of the weather data.
line statuses, network topologies and both the various genera- The results of this investigation are shown in Table IV.
tion and load levels. The combinations with higher probability It shows that the EENS of the IEEE-RTN is dramatically
of occurrence will be sampled more than the combinations with increased by 555.54 MWhr/yr when the studies were performed
lower probability of occurrence. Due to that, the less sampled without considering the correlation factor. The reason for this
1118 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON RELIABILITY, VOL. 66, NO. 4, DECEMBER 2017
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Rep. CR-0061 v07, 2012. Yu-Huei Cheng (M’12) received the M.S. and Ph.D.
degrees in electronic engineering from National
Kaohsiung University of Applied Sciences, Kaoh-
Jiashen Teh (M’17) received the B.Eng. degree in siung City, Taiwan, in 2006 and 2010, respectively.
electrical and electronic engineering from Universiti He is currently an Associate Professor of the
Tenaga Nasional, Selangor, Malaysia, in 2010, and Department of Information and Communication
the Ph.D. degree in similar field from the University Engineering, Chaoyang University of Technology,
of Manchester, Manchester, U.K., in 2016. Taichung, Taiwan. His research interests include al-
He is currently a Senior Lecturer at the Universiti gorithms, big data, bioinformatics, biomedical en-
Sains Malaysia, Penang, Malaysia, and is also an gineering, cloud computing, computational biology,
Advisor for the IET-USM on Campus society. His computational intelligence, database, data mining,
research interests include power system reliability electronic circuit, embedded systems, evolutionary computation, fuzzy sys-
analyses, renewable energy sources, and smart grid tems, information retrieval, internet of things, machine learning, multimedia
technologies. He is also currently working toward his engineering, mobile medical, power electronics, and renewable energy.
professional engineering registration with the BEM and IET. Dr. Cheng is a Member of the International Association of Engineers, and
Dr. Teh is a member of IET and a registered Graduate Engineer with the a Senior Member of the Universal Association of Computer and Electronics
Board of Engineers Malaysia in the electrical track. Engineers.