Climate Change

Agenda

Q} 1. Problems in Our Sea

Q 2. What is Climate Change?

3. Climate Change & Our Seas

4. What can we do?

Indonesia in the World Commodities Production

Commodity Rank Commodity Rank

1. Palm Oil 1 10. Fish 4
2. Nutmeg 1 11. Gold 2
3. Tea 2 12. Copper 1
13. Tin 3
4. Coffee 2
14. Nickel 5
5. Rubber 2 15. Geothermal 1
6. Rice 3 16. Coal 3

7. Cocoa 3 17. Natural Gas 4

18. Oil 0.95
8. Seaweed 3 million
BOPD
9. Forest 6
Products
Source: UNDP (2009)
Important Issue of the 21st Century
S a v i n g P la n e t E a r t h
CHALLENCEf TO THE BLUE PLANET
Dwindling source of food

Coastal Poverty

Habitat Degradation

Impact of Global Climate

Change
 ORTRAITS OF COASTAL COMMUNITIES

KEMENTERIAN KELAUTAN DAN PERIKANAN

Poverty in the midst 'of
the richness of coastal
natural resources
Iritligenous traditional
knowledge confronted
by degraded habitat
When the Coral Reefs had gone Extinct
Dwindling source of food

Coastal Poverty

Habitat Degradation

Impact of Global
Warming
 I
*
*
W hat is

W a rm fa fJ
G lo b a l W a rm in g
 n S o la r radiation:
3 4 3 W atts per
The Greenhouse Effect

//
Som e of the solar Outgoing solar
radiation is radiation: 103
reflected by the Watts per m2
atm osphere and
the Earth's surface
S om e of the Outgoing
infrared radiation infrared
radiations: 240

V/
passes through
Watts per m2
the atm osphere
/ and out into space

•Water vapor
•CO2
onM
Solar radiation
•CH4
passes througl
the atm ospher 1 M / •N2O
•O3
•CFCs
About half the absorbed and re-em itted by the
CCl3F (CFC-11)
solar radiation is greenhouse gas m olecules Trichlorofluoromethan
absorbed by the e
Earth's surface Radiation is converted to heat energy, causing
the emission of longwave (infrared) radiation CCl2F2 (CFC-12)
back to the atm osphere
Dichlorodifluorometha
Global Worming & GCC (simplified)

Climate Change Impact

--------------------------------
 perm afrost £ m ostof^ — - MUST
STERN A£L INVEST
M | « . GASES UNINHABITABLE ' REPORT J i 2 - — l^GDP
released
WAR
earth^s-r
f a i l 7b Global
HOTTER THAN
^ R D OF act— GPP 2 0 *
IN 55 MILLIONS
BANGLADESH WWER/ ^ FAMINE
YEARS
UNDERWATER

U y 5 C »£Ugue «
MILLIONS \ / / /
REFUGEES 6 C •_ ' s

GLOBAL
NUCLEAR
im p a c t s WAR v
oOSo
C>0 © © ENV,R°/VAif
u tw w A ves
FOOD
rgfrNS WARMIng

GREENLAND , N9
MELTS V \ e x t in c t

POUR BEARS;
e x t in c t
i a
$£4 LEVELS RISING
WATER SUPPLY,
AFFECTED «.rs*»S
2^4nONS
Temperature Increase of the
Atmosphere and Seas
Changes in Ocean Water Circulation
Extreme Weather Changes
Decrease of Sea Water pH
Rising of Sea Surface
Sea Surface Temperature Increase
Mei 2010 in comparison to last decade average

June 2010 in comparison to last decade average

Courtesy: Erwin Makmur, BMKG

 Perubahan Suhu Udara di MAKASSAR 1972 - 2007 (OBSERVATION)
± 0.02 per tahun
business as usual = 2oC dalam 100 tahun

Source: Dr. Edvin Aldrian; BMKG

Temperature Increase of the
Atmosphere and Seas
Changes in Ocean Water Circulation
Extreme Weather Changes
Decrease of Sea Water pH
Rising of Sea Surface
Changes in the Great Ocean Conveyor Belt

Indian
Ocean

Cold saline
deep current

Heat release
to atmosphere
SYR -FIG U R E 4-2

IPCC
Temperature Increase of the
Atmosphere and Seas
Changes in Ocean Water Circulation
Extreme Weather Changes
Decrease of Sea Water pH
Rising of Sea Surface
 Climate Change due to Global Warming

rl
JLLM
P R IS T IN E C L IM A T E

Source: Dr. Edvin Aldrian; BMKG

• tropical clim ate will be wetter
Sub tropical clim ate will be tropical clim ate like
Faster w ater c y c le circulation
Extreme w eather will b e usual an d more dry PERIOD (2003; 2005; 2007; 2008)
 3 CLIMATE CONTROLS OF RAINFALL IN INDONESIA
m
EL NINO, DIPOLE 1)
EL NINO / LA NINA
MODE
INDONESIA SST
2
DIPOLE MODE
POSITIVE/ DIPOLE
MODE NEGATIVE
EL NINO
I J a n Air

•' D M (+ ) 1963
n ■ /-
II
1972 &
1982 ^ BMKG
SOUTHWEST

, PACIFIC 1997 ;
El Nino La Nina
Area of Dipole Mode. Area of El Nino
Phenomena Phenomena * 0.5-1 -1 - -0.5
weak weak
.A NINA, DIPOL
■ tjg y 1 -2 -2--1
r• x. Moderate Moderate

> 2 strong <-2 strong

A Dipole SST
Mode (°C) Indonesia
Massa Uap Air (°C)
2 \ PERI

r.M 0.4 positive > 0.5 warm

"3
-0.4 <-0.5 cool
negative

Ian; BMKG 26
____________
Unpredictable and Extreme Weather Changes
Temperature Increase of the
Atmosphere and Seas
Changes in Ocean Water Circulation
Extreme Weather Changes
Decrease of Sea Water pH
Rising of Sea Surface
 Ocean Acidification
Penurunan pH terjadi karena
meningkatnya konsentrasi CO2 di
kolom air

ASAM
Sumber 2
Land- Simple f j C O 2 (g) ^ iq)
based C H 2O + O2 C 0 2)+ h 2o CO2 (aq) + H2O ^ H+> HCO3-
OM HCO3- ~ H+ + C O 2-
 Coral Bleaching

■ v •*j r ' *•
.* *V :•* ' , •
u «" •*“ •.

From Smith e ta /2005 Global Change Biology

v ■ ■■ ■ ■ * - «

Kematian Karang semakin besar pada wilayah yang mengalami stress tambahan
Subsequent impact of Coral Bleaching
Temperature Increase of the
Atmosphere and Seas
Changes in Ocean Water Circulation
Extreme Weather Changes
Decrease of Sea Water pH
Rising of Sea Surface
Kenaikan Muka Laut akibat Temperatur Bumi yang
Semakin Meningkat Source: Susandi, DNPI

Sea Level Change (cm

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Global Sea Level Rise 1880 - 2000 (IPCC, 2003)
 Sea Rise Projection

Kenaikan Muka Laut

Year
Luas Area yang Hilang (km2) (m)
2010 7,408 0.4
Sumber : 2050 30,120 0.56
Susandi,dkk.
2008 2100 90,260 1.1
> Terganggunya Batas Wilayah
Indonesia

> Gangguan terhadap Jaringan

Jalan Lintas dan Kereta Api

> Menggenangnya Air Laut

> Rusaknya Ekosistem Pantai
• Peningkatan Jumlah Pengungsi
• Hilangnya Habitat dan Spesies
• Hilangnya lahan-lahan budidaya
• Berkurangnya Produktivitas Lahan
• Berkurangnya Produktivitas Pertanian
• Berkurangnya Produktivitas
Perikanan
• Masalah Sumber Daya Air

Sum ber: Susandi,dkk. 2008

 ISLANDS LOST IN INDONESIA BY 2100

Sumatera Utara : Pulau Batu

Sumatera Barat : Pulau Sipora, Pulau Bagai Utara, Pulau Bagai Selatan
Kepulauan Riau : Pulau Singkep, Pulau Sebangka, Pulau Lingga, Pulau Abang Besar, Pulau Panuba, Pulau Benuwa,
Pulau Tambelan, Pulau Pinangseribu
Bangka Belitung : Pulau Belitung
Kalimantan Barat : Pulau Karim ata ; Kalimantan Selatan : Pulau Laut, Pulau Sebuku
Jawa Tim ur : Pulau Giliraya, Pulau Gili-genteng, Pulau Puteran, Pulau Sapudi, Pulau Raas, Pulau Kangean
Bali : Pulau Nusa Penida ; N T B : Pulau Giligede,Sangeang; N T T : Pulau Solor, Pulau Pantar, Pulau Adonara
Sulawesi Selatan : Pulau Selayar, Pulau Tanah Pulau Jampea, Pulau Bonerate, Pulau Kaloatoa
Sulawesi Tenggara : Pulau Tukang B e s i; Sulawesi Tengah : Pulau Banggai
Maluku Utara : Pulau Mangole, Pulau Tubulai, Pulau Obi, Pulau Obilatu, Pulau Damar, Pulau Gebe
Maluku : Pulau Watubela, Pulau Wetar, Pulau Tanibar, Pulau Babar, Pulau K ai
West Papua : Pulau Rumberpon, Pulau Gag
 Why is it hard to overcome?
■ No scientific certainty: natural vs
anthropogenic
■ Voluntary guidelines or binding
emissions target?
^ w v i w yy
■ Short-term pragmatic interests vs
■ ^ ^ ^ ■ ■ ■ ■

long-term strategic decisions V

■ “Blaming Game”, rich vs poor

countries PST
R ija l i(dru

w m w L
 Managing the impacts of GCC

MITIGATION

It Ain't No Magic

Butuh biaya: $$, Rp Kenaikan suhu atm & laut - Kemampuan

Alokasi Sumberdaya Perubahan sirkulasi air laut beradaptasi
Perubahan cuaca ekstrem - Fleksibel
Tindakan pencegahan
- Stabilitas
Penurunan pH air laut
- Berdaya-tahan
Kenaikan paras laut
 pal
Flexibility vs Stability
1

yuJnsmbiJitv a Ksrsntonan
Th e degree to which a system is
susceptible to or unable to cope with
adverse e ffe ct of changes
Resilience = Daya Lenting
Th e ability to cope with changes, even
a fte r having suffered adverse impacts, but
Die to transform itself back to normality
 Ways to build resilience

-Improved disaster prepar

programs, funds, risk a
Implementation of Inte
Management (ICM)
Ecological & human seli

eliance on local people

wisdom. '
"The world will
not be destroyed
by those who do
evil, but by those
who watch them
without doing
anything."
- Albert Einstein
“I t is not the strongest
species that survive,
nor the most intelligent,
but the ones most
responsive to change”

... Charles Darwin

Main Challenge:
How to turn Good Science into
Good Policy

It Ain't No Magic
R ija l Id ru s
G eog-U C an
So, What Can You Do to Overcome this?
R ljt f l Id r us
G eog-U C an