Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Source: Sauer, Ildo L. (IEE/ Universidade de São Paulo) – Lámina de Presentación en Mesa Redonda Internacional sobre Integración Energética (FP UNA,
6
May 8 and 9, 2014)
Energy and Society
The Energy Periods
The Two Social Revolutions
Agricultural Revolution
Industrial Revolutions
- Beginning on 1750 (Modern Age – 1st Stage), and it goes up to the 19th and
20th centuries – 2nd Industrial Revolution.
- Use of cumulative solar energy through fossil fuels and energy flows. First
coal and then petroleum and its derivatives. The electricity had also a relevant
impact.
- Alteration in social relationships and distribution of labour (mechanization).
- Intensification of productivity, without precedents.
- Population explosion.
- Consolidation of the capitalist mode of production.
8
8
Source: Howsitit.com Geopolitics in context website, 2008. Editor: Nigel Canelli.
ENERGY AND ECONOMIC TRANSITIONS
Oil
9
Historic evolution of the GDP’s structure of a
typical country
Energy
Security
Investments &
Institutional Access &
Value
Coordination Affordability
Distribution
Governance
Sustainable Knowledge
Development (G+D+T)
¿GOVERNANCE OR
GOVERNABILITY?
Governance:
Governability: Set of decision-making and action
Legitimacy; processes, formal and informal
Competition; rules that aims to lead a sector or
Effectiveness; several sectors of a given or
Directive society in general. By means of it
process on the the public authority is exercised
Society over such sector or sectors. The
governance must express the
strategic vision of a given society.
Elements of sustainable development
www.mostbeatifulthings.com
23
But people don’t have an unique vision
24
But the people don’t have an unique vision
www.thyssenkrupp-india.com
25
But the people don’t have an unique vision
26
Consensus construction
DIFFERENT CULTURES
DIFFERENT INTERESTS
DIFFERENT NEEDS
27
The countries have different and limited resources
www.gazetavirtual.com.br
28
We have different energy consumptions
SOURCE: C-SERMS
Contradictory socio-economic conditions
Different initial energy access conditions
www.gazetavirtual.com.br
Environmental issues
Fuente: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/
Fuente: http://images.sciencedaily.com/
Fuente: http://frack-off.org.uk/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/20ImpactsShale1.jpg
DIRECT PRESSURE ON NATURAL RESOURCES:
environmental issues
Source: MacKay, D.J.C. (2009). Sustainable Energy – without the hot air. UIT, Cambridge (RU)
Questions?
General scheme for the formulation process of energy policies
Energy Mix
World & Regional
Governance
Demand
Demand
R+D+i
Supply
Society Needs
Context
• DIAGNOSIS
• FORECASTING
ENERGY DIAGNOSIS: X SUBSECTORS
STRATEGIC AND ANALYTIC AXIS
Source: Prepared by the authors, based on OLADE et al., 2003, Energy and Sustainable Development in Latin America and the Caribbean. Guide
for the Formulation of Energy Policies.
Importance/Characteristics of the Forecasting
• Incorporate perspectives of technological evolution.
• Provide sources of knowledge.
• Make possible the dialogue among actors.
• Must raise a wide, collective debate to think about the future.
• Encourage the creation of collaborative networks.
• Provide information to define and develop energy policies.
• “Explore the future”, under a “what-if” mode, by means of the
scenario technique for the uncertainty level in decision-making.
Source: Prepared by the authors, based on OLADE (2014). Manual of Energy Planning.
Processes for the Formulation of Energy Policies
• These objectives can be classified by the range and/or depth of the intention,
namely:
• General or higher-order objectives
• Specific objectives
• The Vision express -in a concise way- the desired end state of the energy
system. It is the expected result of implementing the policies and it is directly
linked to the general objectives.
• The path is defined according to the specific objectives for every transversal
dimension and energy subsector.
• Then, this specific objectives would be operational by means of the strategic
lines, tools and goals for every action.
General Objectives
• General objectives are the generic, comprehensive premises that intervene
structurally within the society affected by an energy policy.
• They collaborate with long-term social, political, environmental, economic and
fiscal sustainability by means of energy development.
• General objectives arise from critical elements of the systemic analysis and they
are general outlines of the energy policy.
• It has in detail the expected desired state.
Specific Objectives
• Specific objectives come from general objectives focusing on different
subsectors, dimensions and/or perspectives.
• These objectives are normally linked to tools with more limited timeframes and
specific targets to be achieved in delimited horizons.
• Specific objectives generally focus on addressing particular situations identified
in the baseline assessment stage.
• They might be referred to transversal dimensions and must be expressed in a
way to point expressible results by means of indicators.
• It is desirable for them to go through a prioritization process in order to
established a hierarchy rank.
Prioritization of Specific Objectives
• Specific objectives that have gone through a prioritization process might be
ranked according to their own contribution for achieving the general objectives.
• By doing so, it provides a quantitative signal about which objectives are
“unpostponable” or “critical” and must be urgently addressed.
• Likewise, measuring the contribution of each specific objective for achieving the
general objectives offers a tool for tracing and control.
Review of Energy Policies
Comparison matrix initial situation and proposed objectives
Element 1 W 0 1 0 0 0 1
Baseline elements
Element 2 O 0 0 0 0 0 0
Element 3 S 1 0 0 0 0 1
Element 4 T 1 1 0 0 1 3
Element 5 S 1 1 0 1 0 3
SO 3 3 0 1 1
Stages to elaborate Action Plans (Level: Strategic Lines (SL))
Effect of climate change on Long droughts are recorded. IPCC scenarios show
T2
hydroelectric power plants reduction of the rainfall in the main basins.
Fuente: http://economia.gob.do/mepyd/estrategia-nacional-de-desarrollo-2030/
O1: EFFICIENT PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION
Fuente: http://economia.gob.do/mepyd/estrategia-nacional-de-desarrollo-2030/
Vision Class Objectives of Energy Policy
Efficiente
Electricity Climate
Public Fuel Security Sustainability SE
Security Change
Administration
External dependence of
W 1 1 1 1 0 4
hydrocarbon supply
Limited capacity to produce
W 1 0 0 1 0 2
biofuels
Unsustainable supply of
Baseline Assessment Elements
W 1 0 0 1 1 3
biomass
Deficient information
W 1 0 0 0 0 1
systems
W Governance 1 1 1 1 1 5
National capacity for taking
S advantage of hydropower 1 1 0 1 1 4
potential
Identified and well-known
S 1 1 1 1 1 5
potential of renewables
External financing to
O 1 1 1 1 1 5
support renewables
Possibilities to place
O electricity surplus in 0 0 0 0 0 0
neighboring countries
SO 10 6 6 8 6
SITUATION INTERPRETATION / ORIENTATION
IF THE SUM OF ELEMENTS (SE) IS AT LEAST ONE GOAL ATTEND THE INITIAL
DIFFERENT THAN ZERO CONDITION.
IF THE SUM OF OBJECTIVES (SO) IS THE CURRENT OBJECTIVE IS RELEVANT.
DIFFERENT THAN ZERO HIGH SUMS MIGHT INDICATE HIGH
RELEVANCE OF THE OBJECTIVE.
IF THE SUM OF ELEMENTS IS ZERO IT IS RECOMMENDED TO DEFINE A
POLICY OBJECTIVE THAT MEETS THE
BASELINE ASSESSMENT ELEMENT.
IF THE SUM OF OBJECTIVES (SO) IS IT MIGHT INDICATE THAT THE OBJECTIVE
ZERO IS NOT APPROPRIATE OR IT IS NOT
UPDATED.
IF ANY SUM SEEMS RELATIVELY IT IS RECOMMENDED TO ANALYZE IF
LOW SOME CHANGES MUST BE INTRODUCED
IN THE OBJETCTIVE.
Sourcee: http://economia.gob.do/mepyd/estrategia-nacional-de-desarrollo-2030/
O1: EFFICIENT PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION
A HYPOTHETICAL SITUATION
Fuente: http://economia.gob.do/mepyd/estrategia-nacional-de-desarrollo-2030/
O2: RELIABLE AND SUSTAINABLE SUPPLY OF
ELECTRICITY AT COMPETITIVE PRICES
Fuente: http://economia.gob.do/mepyd/estrategia-nacional-de-desarrollo-2030/
O4: SUSTAINABLE ENERGY PRODUCTION AND
CONSUMPTION
Fuente: http://economia.gob.do/mepyd/estrategia-nacional-de-desarrollo-2030/
Limited capacity to produce
1 0 0 1 0 2
biofuels
Information systems 1 0 0 0 0 1
THE ELEMENT related to VOLATILITY OF OIL PRICE VOLATILITY COULDT BE ADDRESSED BY THE
OBJECTIVE OF ENERGY SECURITY.
Fuente: http://economia.gob.do/mepyd/estrategia-nacional-de-desarrollo-2030/
General Objectives of Energy Policies
W 1 0 1 1 1 4
biomass
Deficient information
W 0 0 0 0 0 1
systems
W Governance 1 1 1 1 1 5
National capacity for taking
S advantage of hydropower 1 1 1 1 0 4
potential
Identified and well-known
S 1 1 1 1 0 4
potential of renewables
External financing to
O 1 0 1 1 1 4
support renewables
Possibilities to place
O electricity surplus in 0 1 0 1 1 3
neighboring countries
SO 8 6 5 9 7
Let’s continue with our example. This time,
to propose some strategic lines:
Source: http://economia.gob.do/mepyd/estrategia-nacional-de-desarrollo-2030/
Internal Conditions
Weaknesses Strengths
Ensure Energy Security
External dependence
Limited capacity to Unsustainable Entrepreneurship for Renewables
of hydrocarbon
produce biofuels supply of biomass hydropower plants potential
supply
Threats
SL5 promoting
SL6 implementing SL7 promoting the
Effect of climate adequate
adaptive measures to use of domestic
change on reforestation in
climate change in most renewable resources
hydroelectric influence areas of
critical hydropower for electricity
power plants hydro power
plants. generation.
plants reservoirs.
SL12 conducting
Access to
SL9 implementing SL10 promoting studies and research
external SL8 promoting NAMAS SL11promoting the
energy projects for energy to improve
Opportunities financing to and NAPAS in the installation of Small
rural areas based on afforestation and understanding about
support energy sector. Hydropower plants.
renewables. reforestation. the potential of local
renewables
renewable resources.
ENERGY AGENDA