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Application of remote sensing and gis for forest fire susceptibility

mapping using likelihood ratio model

Article · January 2007

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DPM
16,3 Forest fire susceptibility and risk
mapping using remote sensing
and geographical information
344
systems (GIS)
Biswajeet Pradhan, Mohd Dini Hairi Bin Suliman and
Mohamad Arshad Bin Awang
Remote Sensing and GIS Division, Cilix Corporation Sdn Bhd,
Bukit Jalil, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Abstract
Purpose – In a tropical country like Malaysia, forest fire is a very common natural and man-made
disaster that prevails in the whole South East Asian region throughout the year. Recently, the haze
problem in Malaysia has created a lot of awareness among the government and eco-tourism sectors.
Therefore, detection of the hotspot is very important to delineate the forest fire susceptibility mapping.
In this study, remote sensing and geographical information systems (GIS) have been used to evaluate
forest fire susceptibility at Sungai Karang and Raja Muda Musa Forest Reserve, Selangor, Malaysia.
Frequency ratio model has been applied for the delineation of forest fire mapping for the study area.
Design/methodology/approach – Forest fire locations were identified in the study area from
historical hotspots data from year 2000 to 2005 using AVHRR NOAA 12 and NOAA 16 satellite
images. Various other supported data such as soil map, topographic data, and agro climate were
collected and created using GIS. These data were constructed into a spatial database using GIS. The
factors that influence fire occurrence, such as fuel type and Normalized Differential Vegetation Index
(NDVI), were extracted from classified Landsat-7 ETM imagery. Slope and aspect of topography were
calculated from topographic database. Soil type was extracted from soil database and dry month code
from agroclimate data. Forest fire susceptibility was analyzed using the forest fire occurrence factors
by likelihood ratio method.
Findings – A new statistical method has been applied for the forest fire susceptibility mapping. The
results of the analysis were verified using forest fire location data with the help of a newly written
programming code. The validation results show satisfactory agreement between the susceptibility
map and the existing data on forest fire location. The GIS was used to analyze the vast amount
efficiently, and statistical programs were used to maintain the specificity and accuracy. The result can
be used for early warning, fire suppression resources planning and allocation.
Originality/value – All data used in this study are original. The forest fire susceptibility mapping
has been done in this study area for the first time. A new program has been coded to cross-verify the
susceptibility map. The results were also verified with field data and other supporting weather data.
Keywords Malaysia, Forests, Fire, Geographic information systems, Risk assessment,
Resource allocation
Paper type Research paper

Disaster Prevention and Management

Vol. 16 No. 3, 2007
pp. 344-352 The authors would like to thank Malaysian Center for Remote Sensing and Department of
q Emerald Group Publishing Limited
0965-3562
Surveying, Malaysia for providing various data sets for this research. Thanks are also due to
DOI 10.1108/09653560710758297 Malaysian Meteorological Service Department for providing various data sets for the research.
Introduction Forest fire and
Fire has been identified as one of the major threats causing the loss of forests in several
states in Malaysia. According to Forestry Department of Peninsular Malaysia (JPSM)
risk mapping
and Forest Research Institute Malaysia (FRIM) statistics show that during the last
seven years (between 1992 and 1998), more than 1600 ha of peat swamp forests of
Peninsular Malaysia have been destroyed by fire (Wan Ahmad, 2002). In the event of a
prolonged spell without rain, and a lowering of the water table in the peat swamp 345
forest, the organic layers becomes completely dry and is very prone to fire. Fires in
these peat swamp forest create much more smoke per hectare than other types of forest
fires and are difficult to extinguish. Therefore, the understanding of the areas at risk to
fire needs to be closer concentration in peat swamp forests. A precise evaluation of
forest fire problems and decision on solutions can only be satisfactory when a fire
hazard zone mapping is available (Jaiswal et al., 2002).
Geospatial technology, including remote sensing and geographic information
systems (GIS), provides the information and the tools necessary to develop a forest fire
susceptibility map in order to identify, classify and map fire hazard area. Before,
during and after disaster, the accurate sharing of information is important. Making the
information available via the world-wide web, people can share information to assess
the situation and make decisions. In this study we want to develop and produce a forest
fire hazard model and map for Sungai Karang and Raja Muda Forest Reserve, Selangor
(Peat Swamp Forest) using frequency ratio, which is a statistical model.

Study area
The study area is located approximately between Upper Left (38 230 53.6”E and 1018 30
36.3”N) and Lower Right (38 450 ; 18.05”E and 1018 300 55.33”N). The area located within
the Kuala Selangor District, northern part Selangor. The landuse at the study area is
mainly peat swamp forest, plantation forest, inland forest, scrub, grassland and
ex-mining area. The landform of the area ranges from very flat terrain, especially for
the peat swamp forest, ex mining, grassland and scrub area, to quite hilly area for the
natural forest ranging between 0-420 meter above sea level. Based on Malaysian
Meteorological Services Department, the temperature of northern part of Selangor is
between 298 C to 328 C and mean relative humidity of 65 percent to 70 percent. The
highest temperature is between April to June, while the relative humidity is lowest in
June, July and September. The rainfall about 58.6 mm to 240 mm per month was
recorded in the study area (Tanjung Karang weather station provided by Malaysian
Meteorological Services Department).
There is a high potential of danger of fire in the dry season, especially in the peat
swamp forest and plantation forest. Most fires are caused by human activities, either
due to carelessness or burning activities in crop plantations. On 1995 and 1999, fire
occurred in the peat swamp forest area within the study area. Figure 1 shows Raja
Muda Musa and Sg Karang Reserve Forest, Selangor.

Data using GIS and remote sensing

Accurate detection of the location of hotspots is very important for probabilistic forest
fire susceptibility analysis. Recent advances in remote sensing, GIS and computer
technologies provided an opportunity to assess and monitor the land cover changes in
a near real time basis. NOAA AVHRR satellite data with a spatial resolution of 1.1 km
at nadir was found to be extremely useful for national-scale assessment and
monitoring of major land cover types (Giri and Shrestha, 1996). Historical forest fire
DPM
16,3

346

Figure 1.
Sg Karang and Raja Muda
Musa Forest Reserve,
Selangor

data were collected from satellite remote sensing NOAA AVHRR 12 and NOAA 14
sensors for last five years. To assemble a database to assess the surface area and
number of hotspots in the study area, a total of 112 hotspots were mapped in a mapped
area of 616 km2. The imagery from Landsat-7 ETM of path 157 and row 058 acquired
on 21 September 2001 was used in this study. The spatial resolution for Landsat-7
ETM was 30 meter £ 30 meter. Fuel map were extracted from satellite imagery.
GIS data and ancillary data consist of biophysical and socio-economic variable is
based on 1:25,000 scale. Contour, administrative boundaries, water resources,
settlement, transportation infrastructure are based on the topographic map from
Survey Department (JUPEM). Forest fire reports have been collected from Forest
Department Peninsular Malaysia (JPSM). Hotspots prone areas, fire occurrence map,
peat swamp map and soil map were acquired from MACRES. Socio-economic data
such as population data and socio-economic data were obtained from Statistical
Department. Meteorological data such as temperature and relative humidity and Fire
Danger Rating System (FDRS) map were obtained from Malaysian Meteorological
Services Department. Image processing was carried out using ERDAS Imagine 8.7 and
PCI Geomatica 9.0.
To apply the probabilistic method, a spatial database that considers forest
fire-related factors was designed and constructed. These data are available in Malaysia
either as paper or as digital maps. The spatial database constructed is shown in Table I.

Classification Sub-classification GIS data type Scale

Forest fire events Hotspot location Point coverage 1:25,000

Basic map Land use GRID 30 m £ 30 m
Soil GRID 30 m £ 30 m
Vegetation index (NDVI) GRID 30 m £ 30 m
Slope GRID 30 m £ 30 m
Table I. Aspect GRID 30 m £ 30 m
Data layer of study area Agroclimate GRID 30 m £ 30 m
There were six factors that were considered in calculating the probability, and the Forest fire and
factors were extracted from the constructed spatial database. The factors were
transformed into a vector-type spatial database using the GIS, and forest fire-related
risk mapping
factors were extracted using the database. A digital elevation model (DEM) was
created first from the topographic database. Contour and survey base points that had
elevation values from the 1:25,000-scale topographic maps were extracted, and a DEM
was constructed with a resolution of 20 m. Using this DEM, the slope angle and slope 347
aspect were calculated. The soil map is obtained from a 1:100,000-scale soil map.
Landsat-7 ETM, 30 meter £ 30 meter resolution was used for extracting fuel map in
the Sg Karang and Raja Muda Forest Reserve, Selangor. Multi-parametric analyses or
overlays was carried out using GIS which severity zones and the prioritize was based
on frequency ratio approach. Land use and land cover data was classified using a
Landsat-7 ETM image employing an unsupervised classification method and
topographic map. The fuel type has been classified into ten classes, such as peat
swamp forest, mangrove, inland forest, rubber plantation, grassland, oil palm
plantation, paddy, shrub, cleared land and unclassified (water bodies and urban) were
extracted for fuel type mapping. Finally, the NDVI map was obtained from Landsat-7
ETM satellite images. The NDVI value was calculated using the formula
NDVI ¼ (IR 2 R)/(IR þ R), where IR value is the infrared portion of the
electromagnetic spectrum, and R-value is the red portion of the electromagnetic
spectrum. The NDVI value denotes areas of vegetation in an image.
The factors were converted to a raster grid with 30 m £ 30 m cells for application
of the frequency ratio model. The area grid was 2,418 rows by 1,490 columns (i.e. total
number is 3,033,610) and 112 cells had forest fire occurrences.

Methodology
Frequency ratio model and its application
Frequency ratio approaches are based on the observed relationships between
distribution of hotspot and each hotspot-related factor, to reveal the correlation
between hotspot locations and the factors in the study area. Using the frequency ratio
model, the spatial relationships between hotspot-occurrence location and each factors
contributing hotspot occurrence were derived. The frequency is calculated from
analysis of the relation between hotspot and the attributing factors. Therefore, the
frequency ratios of each factor’s type or range were calculated from their relationship
with hotspot events as shown in Table II. In the relation analysis, the ratio is that of the
area where hotspots occurred to the total area, so that a value of 1 is an average value.
If the value is greater than 1, it means a higher correlation, and value lower than 1
means lower correlation.
To calculate the Forest Fire Susceptibility Index (FFSI), each factor’s frequency
ratio values were summed to the training area as in equation (1). The hotspot
susceptibility value represents the relative susceptible to forest fire occurrence. So the
greater the value, the higher the susceptibility to forest fire occurrence and the lower
the value, the lower the susceptibility to forest fire occurrence:

FFSI ¼ Fr 1 þ Fr 2 þ . . . þ Frn ð1Þ

(FFSI: Forest Fire Susceptibility Index; Fr: Rating of each factors’ type or range).
This study consists of development of Forest Fire Susceptible Map. Figure 2 shows
flowchart of methodology.
 16,3

348
DPM

Table II.

fire occurrences
Frequency ratio to forest
Factors Class Forest fire occurrence points Forest fire occurrence points % Pixels in domain Pixel % Frequency ratio
Landuse Oil palm 882,330 29.09 33 29.46 1.01
Rubber 173,028 5.70 1 0.89 0.16
Inland forest 251,786 8.30 1 0.89 0.11
Wetland 47,900 1.58 0 0.00 0.00
Coconut 267,027 8.80 2 1.79 0.20
Tin mining areas 70,524 2.32 11 9.82 4.22
Peat swamp forest 978,612 32.26 42 37.50 1.16
Cocoa 21,710 0.72 0 0.00 0.00
Grassland 11,453 0.38 0 0.00 0.00
Urban and associated areas 21,067 0.69 0 0.00 0.00
Paddy 237,293 7.82 22 19.64 2.51
Mixed horticulture 14,600 0.48 0 0.00 0.00
Coffee 6,966 0.23 0 0.00 0.00
Shrub 6,381 0.21 0 0.00 0.00
Market garden 1,391 0.05 0 0.00 0.00
Orchards 547 0.02 0 0.00 0.00
Cleared land 791 0.03 0 0.00 0.00
Mangrove 32,737 1.08 0 0.00 0.00
Water bodies 7,467 0.25 0 0.00 0.00
Soil KNJ 116,467 4 0 0.00 0.00
SLR-KGG 570,646 19 19 16.96 0.90
BRH-OCM 197,953 7 7 6.25 0.96
OCM 22,676 1 1 0.89 1.19
PET 1,233,182 41 58 51.79 1.27
TMG-AKB-LAA 149,523 5 4 3.57 0.72
SDG-BGR-MUN 508,282 17 12 10.71 0.64
SDG-KDH 58,860 2 0 0.00 0.00
STP 83,663 3 0 0.00 0.00
ULD 6,224 0 0 0.00 0.00
MLD 86,131 3 11 9.82 3.46
(continued)
Factors Class Forest fire occurrence points Forest fire occurrence points % Pixels in domain Pixel % Frequency ratio
Slope 0-15 2,688,943 89 109 97.32 1.10
16-26 119,360 4 3 2.68 0.68
27-35 120,067 4 0 0.00 0.00
36-89 101,330 3 0 0.00 0.00
Aspect Flat 840,143 27.73 25 22.32 0.80
North 271,677 8.97 16 14.29 1.59
Northeast 135,333 4.47 5 4.46 1.00
East 221,514 7.31 11 9.82 1.34
Southeast 291,939 9.64 17 15.18 1.57
South 395,470 13.05 8 7.14 0.55
Southwest 452,322 14.93 21 18.75 1.26
West 236,762 7.82 5 4.46 0.57
Northwest 184,133 6.08 4 3.57 0.59
NDVI 1 313,831 10.34 18 16.07 1.55
2 315,165 10.39 18 16.07 1.55
3 303,956 10.02 9 8.04 0.80
4 422,030 13.91 14 12.50 0.90
5 220,812 7.28 9 8.04 1.10
6 288,182 9.50 7 6.25 0.66
7 303,253 10.00 15 13.39 1.34
8 510,397 16.82 18 16.07 0.96
9 190,298 6.27 4 3.57 0.57
10 165,816 5.47 0 0.00 0.00
Agroclimate 2 207,061 6.83 13 11.61 1.70
3 1,309,686 43.17 53 47.32 1.10
4 1,342,888 44.26 41 36.61 0.83
5 77,843 2.57 2 1.79 0.70
6 2,137 0.07 1 0.89 12.68
14 71,658 2.36 0 0.00 0.00
16 22,475 0.74 2 1.79 2.41
Notes: number of total cells in study area: 3,033,610 (without any data); number of forest fire occurrence points: 121
risk mapping
Forest fire and

349

Table II.
DPM
16,3

350

Figure 2.
Flowchart of methodology

The forest fire susceptibility map was made using the FFSI values and for
interpretation is shown in Figure 3.

Conclusion and discussion

In the present study, frequency analysis method was applied for the forest fire
susceptibility mapping for Sungai Karang and Raja Muda Forest reserve. The
validations results show that the frequency ratio model has predication accuracy of
73.18 percent as shown in Figure 4. Here, the authors can conclude that the results of
frequency ratio model had shown the best prediction accuracy in forest fire
susceptibility mapping.
The frequency ratio model is simple, the process of input, calculation and output can
be readily understood. The large amount of data can be processed in the GIS
environment quickly and easily. Moreover, it is hard to process the large amount of
data in the statistical package. Recently, forest fire susceptibility mapping has shown a
great deal of importance for haze detection and fire prevention in forest area. The
results shown in this paper can help the concerned authorities for forest fire
management and mitigation.
However, one must be careful while using the models for specific mitigation. This is
because of the scale of the analysis where other forest fire-related factors need to be
considered. Therefore, the models used in the study are valid for awareness so that
necessary prevention measures can be taken during the time of forest fire. In this
paper, forest fire susceptibility map was developed to determine the level of severity of
forest fire hazard zones in terms of mapping susceptibility to fire by assessing the
relative importance between fire factors and the location of fire ignition.
 Forest fire and
risk mapping

351

Figure 3.
Forest fire susceptibility
map for Sg. Karang and
Raja Muda Musa forest
area

Figure 4.
Cumulative frequency
diagram showing
landslide susceptibility
index rank occurring in
cumulative percent of
landslide occurrence in the
case all factor used
DPM References
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at: www.fire.unifreiburg.de/iffn/country/my/my_2.htm

Further reading
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Luxembourg, available at: www.gvm.sai.jrc.it/Forest/

Corresponding author
Biswajeet Pradhan can be contacted at: biswajeet@mailcity.com

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