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INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH
Madhya Pradesh Election Visit

Freebies working, but not for long

15 November 2018
INDIA | STRATEGY

We travelled 1,000kms through rural and urban Madhya Pradesh (MP) to gauge veridical
Anjali Verma
sentiment about elections and government policies. We saw that rural MP has received (+91 22 62464115)
every benefit from state and central policies – a factor supporting the BJP. However, the anverma@phillipcapital.in
underprivileged want more – a reason for angst among the middle class because of higher
taxes on them – and clearly evident in the states’ stressed fiscal condition. Infrastructure Neeraj Chadawar
has seen a substantial upgrade across MP (particularly roads). Cash spending has been (+91 22 62464116)
tight ever since demonetisation, causing unhappiness among all people (even now); GST nchadawar@phillipcapital.in
and higher compliance cost is an added issue. We see anti‐incumbency partly shadowing
Raag Haria
the BJP government’s constructive efforts and steps taken towards the development of (+ 9122 6246 9943)
the state. Thus, it is likely to be a very close contest between the BJP and the Congress rharia@phillipcapital.in
(INC). The Congress is likely to gain more seats vs. last elections; BJP leads currently.
Our analysis
Meaningful development has taken place in MP during Shivraj Singh Chauhan’s 15‐year
tenure as the Chief Minister of the state. The people are fond of him and dotingly call him
Mamaji. Substantial progress has happened in road infrastructure, with assured regular
water/power supply, better health facilities and numerous benefits for the poor
(subsidies/benefits on food, fertilizers, seeds, crops, healthcare, electricity, transport,
tractors, jobs, etc.). Government (BJP) policies are pro‐poor and it is spending a sizeable
amount on rural development – this is paying off as nearly 72% of MP’s population resides in
rural areas and 55% is dependent on agriculture.
Here are some observations from our visit: (1) BJP is facing considerable anti‐incumbency,
(2) There is a section of people – such as daily wagers, businessmen, and traders – that are
disappointed with the incumbents due to lack of jobs/profits and GST/demonetisation. (3)
The fact that the ruling government can promise limited incremental benefits to the people
of MP is an impediment to victory. (4) There seems a mixed response from the rural
population – while some were quite appreciative of the BJP government’s efforts, others
complained about delivery. Lack of cash payments and the addition of structured layers for
receiving benefits is a source of dissatisfaction. All this portends a close fight between the
BJP and Congress with the latter predominantly fighting on employment issues (we found it
to be a real problem across rural and urban MP) and favoured by anti‐incumbency.
Vote‐swing probabilities
• In 2013, parties won 117 seats with a margin of less than 10% votes. These seats will be
the flashpoint for a swing in vote share for the upcoming elections. Of these 117 seats,
BJP won 72 seats and Congress 40; 48 seats (28 ‐ BJP, 16 ‐Congress, 3 ‐ BSP) are crucial
due to their thin margins of less than 5,000 votes.
• In the 2013 elections, votes of the underprivileged were distributed similarly between
the BJP and Congress (at 44%). In 2018, these votes could add to the swing factor. In
2013, the upper/middle/lower classes had favoured the BJP over Congress.
• 2013 saw SC votes split three ways between the BJP, INC and BSP. Despite this, the BJP
managed to win 28/35 SC seats. However, this time, any swing in SC votes could lead to
a decrease in the BJP’s seats.
• People are likely to give greater weightage to candidates and the work done.

The government’s benefits for the public (particularly rural and BPL) are extensive. While the
public has gained, the fiscal stress is substantial. Fiscal deficit for FY19 is budgeted at 3.24%
and can slip to 3.5% after accounting for freebies/subsidies distributed to the public. New
private sector investment in MP is tepid, despite numerous investor meets. Sector growth
has been led by agriculture (significant progress seen), followed by services while industry
has lagged behind. BPL (Below Poverty Line) population constitutes 32% of the state’s total
population.
Page | 1 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

INDIA STRATEGY UPDATE
Our travel across MP
• 1,000km Ground View visits to Madhya Pradesh. We started at Ujjain (Malwa
region) and travelled through Indore to Bhopal. Malwa is a traditional
demographic for the BJP, where it holds 54 out of 62 seats with more than 50%
vote share.
• We then headed to the Baghelkhand region where BJP is not only fighting with
the INC, but also with the BSP in most of the border areas of Uttar Pradesh.
• Finally, to get a flavour of development there, we travelled to Mahakoshal region
from Jabalpur. Here, the BJP holds 34 constituencies out of 49 with almost 50%
vote share vs. 39% for INC.
• We met with farmers, traders, distributors, shopkeepers, politicians, and
journalists.
• Our aim was to get a perspective on the economic, business, political, and
sentiment‐driven impact of the state and central government’s policies rolled out
in the last five‐years.

Travelled 1,000 kms across MP over five days

MP road trip: A highway distance sign


MP Road trip – the ruling government has done a
lot, but it is facing anti‐incumbency
On 28th November 2018, 230 seats will be contested in MP with the results scheduled
on 11th December. BJP has been the ruling government in MP for the last 15 years, in
which period it has offered many benefits to the underprivileged. Nevertheless, it is
likely to face the stress of anti‐incumbency. PM Modi has had a great influence on
people, along with Shivraj Singh Chauhan. Many candidates have switched parties
(BJP has many aspirants due to its size and success; it is well managed), which, as
always, will play an important role in election making.

People told us they think that the Congress’ campaign is deep‐rooted. The party has
released its manifesto, promising farm‐loan waivers, lower fuel prices,
unemployment benefits, and higher benefits for housing construction, among others.
The BJP party is yet to release its manifesto.

INC Manifesto
INC renamed its manifesto to Vachan Patra. Here are the key highlights:
• Farmers: Has promised to waive‐off farm loans at nationalised as well as state government cooperative banks,
and reduce electricity bills of farmers by 50%;. 7.0‐7.2 million farmers will benefit.
• Aam Admi: Promise to reduce petrol , diesel, and cooking‐gas prices.
• Youth: Rs 10,000 per month unemployment allowance for one member of a family.
• Girls: Rs 51,000 at the time of marriage.
• Landless people: Rs 250,000 for the construction of houses on a plot size of 450 sq. ft.
• Other major highlights: Free laptops to all toppers; “Gou shala (cow shed)” in each gram panchayat.

Election history of the Madhya Pradesh assembly
MP INC BJP BSP SP Others IND GGP BJSH Total Party Won
2013 58 165 4 3 230 BJP
2008 71 143 7 1 3 5 230 BJP
2003 38 173 2 7 5 2 3 230 BJP
1998 172 119 11 4 5 9 320 INC
Source: India Votes

A BJP follower has gained from the Modi Chai Stall However, he said, “Congress ki lehar hai is baar
(there is a Congress wave this time)”. In his area, BJP has done tremendous work.

Feedback from farmers and rural MP

Mixed reaction to Bhavantar Bhugtan Yojana (BBY)
We reached Bhopal early in the morning and thought it was the best time to visit the
Sehore mandi (market in Hindi), where farmers come to sell their produce. We were
surprised to see that some of the farmers had been waiting for their turn at the
mandi since the previous night – and peacefully. These long waits were for the
traders to reach the mandi and buy their produce. These farmers were selling fresh
soybean at a going rate of Rs 2,900/quintal while the MSP for soybeans is set at Rs
3,400/quintal. In another mandi, near Jabalpur, farmers had gathered to sell corn,
which has seen good output.

Under the Bhavantar Bhugtan Yojana (prevalent in MP since October 2017), the
balance amount (Rs 500) is transferred to the farmers’ bank account by the MP
government. We learnt from our interaction with farmers that it takes about one to
six month for the benefits to come into farmers’ accounts. Many were uncertain
about whether transfers would happen at all this time (in case the BJP government is
not re‐elected). Some also complained that they haven’t received last year’s dues.
Lack of cash availability, due to strict checking by the Election Commission, is delaying
payments to the farmers in the near‐term.

Strict checking witnessed across MP by the Election Commission

While some farmers were satisfied with the incremental benefits that they were
receiving from the government on soybean, many complained that largely only the
traders benefit. Additionally, they said that due to the Bhavantar Bhugtan Scheme,
market prices were constrained. These prices would otherwise have been higher and
would have directly benefitted farmers. We received a similar response about corn.

In another mandi in Ujjain, smaller farmers were not aware of BBY, while larger
farmers were happy with the scheme and supported it. The soybean market rate here
was Rs 3,100/quintal, due to better quality of crop.



Long queue of trucks/tractors to sell soybean and corn in mandis around MP

Crop insurance – It is working
Most of the farmers have benefitted from the government’s crop insurance scheme
and have been receiving Rs 5,000 per acre, twice a year. Smaller farmers didn’t seem
to be utilizing the scheme as much as larger farmers. We were told that larger farms
are being divided into smaller ones for registration in order to receive higher benefits
from crop insurance.

India Crop Insurance Scheme (Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojna ‐
PMFBY)
PMFBY is a crop insurance scheme designed to provide cover against failure of crops
and help stabilize farmers’ income. The scheme covers all food & oilseed crops, and
annual commercial/horticultural crops. PMFBY is compulsory for all farmers that
obtain crop loans/KCC accounts for notified crops. It is voluntary for other/non‐
loanee farmers to get their crops insured. In the event of crop loss, the farmer will be
paid based on the difference between the threshold yield and actual yield. The
threshold yield is calculated based on average yield for the last seven years.

Premiums: These would be 2% of sum insured for all kharif crops, 1.5% for rabi crops,
and 5% for annual commercial/horticultural crops – as a percentage of coverage
decided based on the farmers land. The difference between premium and the rate of
insurance charges payable by farmers shall be shared equally by the centre and the
state.

Sum insured: The ‘sum insured’ would be equal to ‘scale of finance’ for that crop as
fixed by District Level Technical Committee (DLTC). Where the value of the threshold
yield is lower than the scale of finance, the sum insured will be a higher amount.
Multiplying the Notional Threshold Yield with the Minimum Support Price (MSP) of
the current year one arrives at the ‘value of sum insured’. For crops where MSP is not
declared, farm‐6‐gate price established by the marketing department / board shall be
adopted.

A total of Rs 50.8bn out of the Rs 151.8bn earmarked by the centre has been spent in
Madhya Pradesh alone. A total of 1.64mn farmers benefited, with each of them
receiving Rs 31,036 on an average.



Tractors downloading soybean in Sehore Mandi, MP

Madhya Pradesh farmers insured under the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojna
Farmers Gross Farmers
Farmers Area Insured Sum Insured Premium State GoI Premium Claim Paid Benefited
Insured (mn) (ha) (Rsmn) (Rsmn) (Rsmn) (Rsmn) (Rsmn) (Rsmn) (mn)
Rabi 2017 3.1 5,574,999 183,745 3,122 4,302 4,302 11,726 1,505 0.2
Kharif 2016 4.1 6,399,822 183,111 4,209 10,992 10,992 26,194 18,395 1.1
Kharif 2017 3.6 6,520,763 235,268 5,081 14,949 14,949 34,979 50,819 1.6
Source:Ministry of Agriculture, GoI

PM Awaas Yojana (PMAY) – All the people we met had availed of the benefit of Rs
120,000 towards the construction of their house under the PM Awaas Yojana. This
scheme also provides employment to daily wagers. They told us, “Sar pe chatt de di
Modiji ne, is se jyaada kya maang sak te hain (Modiji has given us a roof over our
heads, what more do we need to ask for).” However, many complained of the
inability to receive benefits as government officers seek money to clear/approve
documents for house construction.

As per our reading, PMAY scheme is going to play a crucial role in supporting the
BJP in state elections. We saw many new houses being constructed under this
scheme.

People of MP are happy with Modiji’s
policies and partly happy with Shivraj
Singh Chauhan

“ Modiji ne to sab de diya, unhi ko hi
waapas laayengey (Modiji has given us
everything ; we will get him re‐elected.”

Kuccha (primitive) houses being converted to pukka (modern) house across MP,
using PMAY


INDIA STRATEEGY UPDATE
Eleectricity beneffits
Peo ople praised tthe chief minister, as everyy house now h had electricityy vs. the previous
reggime. Addition nally, the CM recently laun nched SAMBAL Yojana for tthe BPL catego ory.
Under this schem me, electricityy bill of the BP
PL families is capped at only Rs 200. Peo ople
weere quite than nkful to the government th hat their electricity bills reeduced to Rs 200
(irrrespective of uusage) from R Rs 600‐800 per month earlieer. While mosst have availed d of
this scheme, in ssome areas, th hese benefits haven’t reach hed yet.

PMM Ujjwala Yojaana
Mo ost MP resideents have applied for thiss and have reeceived LPG gas
g connectio ons.
However, they are facing prroblems in reeceiving cylind ders at a sub
bsidised rate and
com mplained thatt it is turning out to be more expensive tthan the ‘chulah (wood‐fireed)’
sysstem. We informed them that the sub bsidy benefit should refle ect in their bank
acccount (they w were not awarre of this). A sore point was the upfron nt payment off Rs
1,0000 per cylinder (the subsid dy takes more than a week to reflect in their accounts).

PMM Jan Dhan Bima
B Yojana is being useed by everyone. Most farmers have bank
acccounts and reeceive benefitts directly into o their accounts. In interio or areas, farm mers
sho owed lack of interest in visiiting banks an nd there was laack of access.

Health facilities
Theere seemed to be reason nable improvement in government ho ospitals. Doctors,
nurses, and meedicines weree regularly available.
a Thee ambulance availability was w
app preciated. Theere was no infformation/aw wareness abou ut Aayushman n Bharat.

CMM Helpline – V Very effective
Farrmers/rural In ndia seemed eextremely appreciative of the CM’s 24* *7 helpline. TThey
told us that all their problem
ms were reso olved within a
a weeks’ time e. All complaints
weere accepted,, lodged, and d addressed.. There weree checks to ensure that all
com mplaints weere resolved within a certain timeframe. The website
CMMhelpline.mp.g gov.in showeed that total complaints received we ere 7,199,517 7 of
wh hich 6,795,243 3 (94%) were rresolved.

Pagge | 7 | PHILLIP
PCAPITAL INDIA
A RESEARCH

The complaints…
Jobs and education – Lack of jobs and job opportunities is a problem that everyone is
facing. People said that there were no new industries to offer jobs to the youth.
While there are many engineering colleges, there are no jobs for the graduates of
these colleges, and they end up migrating from the state. TCS has now built a centre
while Infosys’ facilities are under construction – these should offer better
opportunities to these graduates.

People complained that not much has been done by the government to generate
employment

Another interesting observation was that the people were so used to freebies that
they were unwilling to work. This seemed to be adding to the problem of labour
availability in the state.

Daily wagers – All of them were unhappy about governance and lack of benefits for
their ilk. They were vehement that they would vote for the Congress, as the BJP
government hasn’t offered them any benefits. All announcements were on paper,
and even as they complained, nothing was actually available. There is lack of
employment and daily wages (at Rs 200‐250) are miniscule considering inflation.
Many daily wagers were unable to open bank accounts due to lack of adequate
documentation.

Delivery of benefits is not up to the mark – While much has improved in terms of
Direct Benefit Transfers (DBT) electronically, which are deemed well‐targeted, people
complained about the time gap in receiving benefits vs. the immediate cash
payments that they had to make. Underprivileged people, the ones that typically
need these benefits the most, lack money; not surprisingly, such delays affect them.
These delays were largely blamed on administrative laxity and gaps, despite the
government’s good policies.


Journalists’ view point
Journalists believe that there is likely to be a close fight between the BJP and
Congress, with the BJP already on a better footing that could improve after PM
Modi’s rallies. BJP is suffering from anti‐incumbency and unemployment is a big
problem in MP because of which the party is launching 50‐100 new and credible
faces. People are still very fond of Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan and can
associate with him. According to reporters, he has done a lot of good work and has
good communication skills. BJP also benefits its large size and disciplined and
dedicated workers.

Another view was that if the Congress had formed a pre‐poll coalition with the BSP, it
would have worked in the former’s favour. In case the Congress falls short of a few
seats to form the government, the BSP is likely to support Congress. Both Kamal Nath
and Jyotiraditya Scindia are campaigning aggressively in MP. The chief ministerial face
of Congress isn’t announced yet, as that can cause rift. Both Kamal Nath (71, one of
the longest serving and senior most members of Lok Sabha belonging to the Congress
Party)and Jyotiraditya Scindia (47, MP, related to the Scindia family that once ruled
Gwalior) are liked by their supporters. Kamal Nath has done a lot of good work in his
constituency according to journalists.

Business Viewpoint
While business people appreciated infrastructure development and some of the
policies, in general, sentiment was weak due to rising competition, demonetisation,
and GST. Businesses were laying off employees to manage cost pressures. While GST
was hailed as a good step, it was causing compliance costs and difficulty to escalate.

Business people said that modern trade was eating into the business of distributors
and the latter felt like they could only stand by and watch this happen as modern
trade was a layer of competition that was rightfully receiving benefits from
companies due to large volume share. This is leading to margin pressures. While
some businesspersons said that they would vote for BJP (due to lack of options),
others said that they would give elections a miss this time.


Madhya Pradesh’s political battleground

War against anti‐incumbency – Party‐wise victory distribution in the 2013 Assembly
BJP
INC
BSP

Source: Maps of India

Madhya Pradesh: Regional distribution

Source: Live Mint, Trivedi Centre for Political data

Ground View – 1,000km across Madhya Pradesh

Our Ground View visit to Madhya Pradesh started with Ujjain, which is a part of the
Malwa region in Madhya Pradesh, followed by Indore and Bhopal. Malwa is a
traditional demographic for the BJP where it has 54 out of 62 seats, with more than
50% of vote share. From Malwa, we headed towards Baghelkhand region where BJP
is not only fighting with the INC but also with the BSP in most border areas of Uttar
Pradesh. Finally, we travelled to the Mahakoshal region from Jabalpur to get a flavour
of development – there the ruling party (BJP) holds 34 constituencies out of 49 with
almost 50% vote share vs. 39% for INC.

Game of numbers
2013 Assembly election Victory Margin (%)
Margin (%) BJP INC IND BSP
>=25% 23 4 0 0
>=15%<25% 28 7 0 0
>=5%<15% 76 22 1 1
<5% 38 25 2 3
Total Seats (230) 165 58 3 4
Vote share 46% 36% 6% 12%
Source: India votes, PhillipCapital India Research

In 2013, the incumbent (BJP) government won with a remarkable majority (46% vote Around 117 seats that the BJP, INC, and
share). The BJP was able to capture 165 seats in the 230 seats MP assembly vs. 143 other parties won with a margin of less
seats and 38% vote share in 2008. A sharp turnaround in vote share helped the BJP to than 10% in the 2013 elections will be
convert almost 38 nominal‐margin seats (won with less than 5% margin) into victory, crucial in 2018
while it won 51 seats with a comfortable margin of more than 15%.

Around 117 seats that the BJP, INC, and other parties won with a margin of less than
10% in the 2013 elections will become the epicentre of the swing in vote share in the
2018 election. These seats would face maximum anti‐incumbency and
unemployment‐related sentiment swings.


Seat dynamics

In 2013, the BJP performed well in all five regions of Madhya Pradesh and was able
to capture 46% vote share vs. direct competitor INC that received a vote share of
36%.

In Chambal, the BJP was able to convert 20 seats into victory (out of a total 34 seats)
with a vote share of 38%, which was only 2% more than INC; here, BSP received 16%
vote share. There was a similar performance in Bagelkhand, where the BJP received
39% vote share vs. INC’s 33% and BSP’s 12%. For the remaining three regions, BSP’s
visibility was very low – so the BJP’s direct fight was with the INC; this being a
traditional demographic region, BJP benefited and gained higher vote share in 2013.
This time, these three regions are likely to face maximum anti‐incumbency and
unemployment‐related sentiment swings.

Region‐wise seats distribution in the 2013 assembly election
Total Seats Vote Share (%)
Total Seats BJP INC IND BSP BJP INC BSP Others
BagelKhand 56 36 18 0 2 39% 33% 12% 16%
Chambal 34 20 12 0 2 38% 36% 16% 11%
Mahakaushal 49 34 14 1 0 46% 36% 3% 15%
Malwa North 62 54 7 1 0 52% 38% 2% 9%
Malwa Tribal 29 21 7 1 0 46% 41% 2% 12%
Total 230 165 58 3 4 46% 36% 6% 12%
Source:India Votes, CSDS survey, 2014 LOkniti, SAGE Publication, PhillipCapital India Research
Not an easy going for incumbents
Incumbents have been in power in Madhya Pradesh for the last 15 years, out of
which 12 years were chaired by the current Chief Minister, Shivraj Singh Chouhan,
popularly known as Mamaji. He is a well‐liked face in Madhya Pradesh along with
Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This is one of the major reasons why BJP was able to
perform exceptionally well in the 2014 general election. That year, BJP won 27 out of
29 Lok Sabha seats with a remarkable 55% vote share, which was almost 10% greater
than the 2013 assembly elections vote share.

The belief is that the BJP government has delivered in Madhya Pradesh in terms of
catering to the basic requirements of the people. Kushal Pal Singh a resident of Fanda
village on the busy Bhopal‐Sehore Highway told us, “Mamaji has given us 24 hours
un‐interrupted electricity, eight hours of electricity to farms, and we’re getting
benefits under Bhavantar Yojna. People are benefitting under the Sambal Yojna, Ladli
Lakshmi, and the Mukhyamantri Teerth Yarta Yojna and other major schemes. This is
what we will expect from the government ahead”.

After 15 years in power, Shivraj Singh Chouhan is still popular with the masses, but
anti‐incumbency is a major factor that could hinder the BJP’s victory. Babulal Malviya,
a daily wager that we spoke to, earns Rs 200‐300 per day working under the Pradhan
Mantra Aawas Yojna. He said he was not happy with the overall performance of the
government. “We’re not getting work on a regular basis. Few of us have not been
able to get the benefits of LPG subsidies or the Sambal Yojna. Unemployment is the
biggest issue, especially among daily‐wagers, and the BJP will have to face our
wrath,” Malviya told us.


Risk of a pendulum shift for low‐margin seats
• 48 out of 230 constituencies in the 2013 assembly elections were won by a
nominal margin of less than 5,000 votes.
• Out of 48 critical seats (28 for BJP, 16 for INC), 23 seats were won with very thin
margins of less than 2,000 votes. These seats are spread across the region – 12
are in Bagelkhand, 10 in north Malwa, 9 in Chambal and tribal areas, and 8 in
Mahakoshal.

2013 assembly elections: Critical seats with nominal margins
Victory Margin BJP INC IND BSP Total GEN SC ST
<5000 votes 28 16 1 3 48 28 10 10
<2000 votes 12 9 1 1 23 13 5 5
Source: India Votes, CSDS survey, 2014 LOkniti, SAGE Publication, PhillipCapital India Research

2013 victory by nominal margins
Runner‐up candidate
Margin Victory Seats Won BJP INC IND BSP SP others
BJP 28 ‐ 25 0 2 1 0
INC 16 16 ‐ 0 0 0 0
<5000 Votes
IND 1 1 0 ‐ 0 0 0
BSP 3 2 1 0 ‐ 0 0

2013 assembly election: Critical seats with margins of less than 5,000
BagelKhand Chambal Mahakaushal Malwa North Malwa Tribal Total
BJP 8 6 4 6 4 28
INC 3 3 4 3 3 16
IND 0 0 0 1 0 1
BSP 1 0 0 0 2 3
Total 12 9 8 10 9 48

Caste Equation

What are the economic classes thinking?
In the assembly elections in 2013, support for the BJP was almost uniform across all
economic classes. Conversely, INC had higher support from the underprivileged
compared to well‐off people. Similar support was seen for BJP in the 2014 general
election, in which it gained more confidence from the upper and middle classes vs. its
direct opponent INC, while its performance improved with the under‐privileged.

Support from different economic classes in the Assembly Election 2013
BJP INC BSP Others NOTA
Upper 42% 27% 3% 26% 1%
Middle 46% 34% 6% 9% 5%
Lower 45% 38% 8% 7% 1%
Poor 44% 44% 7% 5%

Support from different economic classes in General Election 2014
Upper 55% 27% 2% 14%
Middle 53% 36% 4% 7%
Lower 56% 32% 4% 4% 4%
Poor 48% 47% 4% 0%

What are the different castes saying?
A favourable factor for BJP in its remarkable victory with a majority in 2013 was the
votes from traditional upper castes and a consolidation of votes from OBC, SC, and ST
categories. After the 2013 election, surveys showed that along with all major upper
castes such as Brahmins, Rajput, and Yadavs, ‘other OBCs’ had also favoured BJP in
2013. On the other hand SC votes were split between BJP, INC, and others despite
which BJP converted 28 out of 35 SC seats into victory. This time around, any swing in
SC votes could lead to a decrease in the number of seats for incumbents.

Support from different economic classes in the 2013 assembly polls
Brahmin 57% 22% 6% 15%
Rajput 60% 25% 3% 7% 5%
Other Upper castes 43% 25% 4% 24% 4%
Yadav 67% 25% 3% 5%
Other OBC 44% 35% 6% 12% 3%
SC 36% 33% 22% 9%
Bhil 35% 51% 2% 12%
Gond 52% 41% 3% 4%
Other ST 50% 41% 3% 4% 2%
Muslims 17% 72% 1% 10%
Other 55% 26% 7% 12%

Critical seats won with margins of less than 5,000 in the 2013 assembly elections
BagelKhand Chambal Mahakaushal Malwa North Malwa Tribal Total
GEN 38 27 28 48 7 148
SC 9 7 5 11 3 35
ST 9 0 16 3 19 47
Total 56 34 49 62 29 230
Victory margin (%)in the 2013 assembly elections
______________BJP______________ _______________INC_______________ _______________Other_______________
Seats Total Seats >10% >10%<5% <5% Total >10% >10%<5% <5% Total >10% >10%<5% <5% Total
GEN 148 58 25 23 106 13 9 17 39 1 0 2 3
SC 35 17 2 9 28 1 1 2 4 1 0 2 3
ST 47 18 7 6 31 4 5 6 15 0 0 1 1
93 34 38 165 18 15 25 58 2 0 5 7


MP Macros
• Madhya Pradesh is the fifth most populous state in the country with a population
of over 72.6mn people. Population has increased at an average annual pace of
22% since 1991.
• Rural population accounts for nearly 72% of the state’s total population.
• The demographics of the state over the past two decades have remained
stagnant; Madhya Pradesh has not experienced rapid urbanization unlike other
states. Its urban population accounted for 28% of the total population in 2011 vs.
25% in 1991.
• Moreover, the sex ratio has changed little since 1991 and stands at 931 females
per thousand males.
• In terms of literacy rates from an overall perspective, Madhya Pradesh has made
significant progress – rising from 45% in 1991 to 69% in 2011. However, literacy
rates for backward classes remain low (SC: 16%, ST: 21%).
• While the state has made significant progress in alleviating poverty, it still ranks
amongst the highest in the country with 32% of the population (23mn people)
still below the poverty line.
• Madhya Pradesh is home to 6%/15% of India’s scheduled caste/tribe population.
Nearly 16% of Madhya Pradesh’s population is classified as scheduled caste and
21% is classified as scheduled tribe.

Madhya Pradesh’s economy has seen a CAGR of 7% over the last six years (FY12‐18)
(vs. 8% national growth). The economy expanded 7.3% yoy in FY18. Sector growth is
led by services, agriculture, and industry, which contributed 39%, 33%, and 28% of
the total GSDP in FY18, respectively. The services component was the largest
contributor to the state’s GDP, followed by agriculture and industry. However, MP’s
agricultural economy is seeing its highest pace (9% CAGR over FY12‐18),
outperforming the national growth of 3%. MP’s services sector has seen 7% CAGR vs.
the national average of 8% and its industrial sector is at 5% CAGR vs. national 7%.

Since the agriculture sector has been growing at a favourable pace and there is lack
of opportunity in other sectors and regions (urban), the state has not seen rapid
urbanization seen in other states in the country. Madhya Pradesh ranks fourth
amongst nineteen key states that will incur high fiscal deficits in FY19. The state’s
fiscal deficit for FY19 is likely to breach the proposed 3% mark to touch 3.24%; in fact,
it could even slip to 3.5% for the year. However, the state has nearly eliminated its
revenue deficit and is likely to turn revenue surplus in subsequent years.

Water sprinklers are being used across MP for irrigation – a new technology being promoted
by the ministry of agriculture

The agriculture sector employs a majority of the state’s population in rural areas
(72%) while for the urban population it is wholesale‐retail trading/ services/
manufacturing at 26%/24%/16%.

Madhya Pradesh GSDP (yoy %) Madhya Pradesh GSDP components (Rs bn)
14% Agriculture Industry Services GSDP (rhs)
11% 12% 1,800 4,800
12%
1,700 4,600
10% 1,600 4,400
1,500
8% 7% 4,200
1,400
4,000
6% 5% 1,300
5%
3,800
1,200
4% 3,600
2% 1,100
2% 1,000 3,400
900 3,200
0%
800 3,000
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18

Source: RBI, CSO, PhillipCapital India Research

CAGR growth (FY12‐18) Madhya Pradesh fiscal deficit and revenue deficit as a % of GSDP
10% Madhya Pradesh India GFD/GSDP RD/GSDP
5%
8% 4%
6% 3%
2%
4%
1%
2%
0%
0%
Agriculture Services Industry GSDP/GDP

Source: RBI, CSO, PhillipCapital India Research

Madhya Pradesh Fiscal deficit (Rs bn)
FY16 FY17 FY18 (RE) FY19 (BE)
Revenue Receipts 1,111 1,232 1,351 1,559
Tax Revenue 806 902 972 1,141
Non‐Tax Revenue 305 330 379 417
Capital Receipts 247 306 336 419
Total Receipts 1,359 1,539 1,687 1,977
Revenue Expenditure 1,107 1,195 1,345 1,556
Interest Paid 86 91 120 129
Capital Expenditure 175 273 281 293
Total Expenditure 1,282 1,468 1,626 1,850
Revenue Surplus 4.4 37.1 5.7 2.6
Fiscal Deficit 212 257 241 268
Primary Deficit 126 141 121 139
Source: RBI, State Budget Document, Niti Aayog, PhillipCapital India Research


Madhya Pradesh Tax revenue break‐up (Rs bn)
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 (RE) FY19 (BE)
Total Tax Revenue 563 607 806 902 972 1,141
State's Own Tax Revenue 336 366 409 440 583 755
Taxes on Income 3 3 3 3 3 3
Stamp Duty & Registration Fees 34 39 40 39 48 56
Goods & Service Tax (GST) 220 409
CGST 70 191
SGST 98 202
IGST 51 16
Taxes on Commodities & Services 288 315 356 388 299 268
Sales Tax 166 181 200 226 152 115
State Excise 59 67 80 75 81 90
Taxes on Vehicles 16 18 22 23 28 32
Taxes on Duties & Electricity 20 20 22 26 28 31
Share in Central Taxes 227 241 397 462 388 388
Corporation Tax 76 84 131 148 156 182
Income Tax 50 60 97 103 131 148
Customs 37 39 61 63 37 29
Union Excise Duties 26 22 40 72 39 29
Service Tax 37 36 68 74 24 ‐

Madhya Pradesh Revenue expenditure (Rs bn)
Total Expenditure 699 824 1,107 1,195 1,345 1,556
Developmental Expenditure 447 558 773 843 903 1,071
Social Services 278 321 466 474 563 623
Education, Sports, Art 137 162 189 211 231 270
Medical & Public Health 29 41 49 50 54 65
Family Welfare 4 4 4 4 5 6
Water Supply & Sanitation 9 9 13 30 31 31
Housing 3 10 15 33 85 73
Urban Development 16 14 41 48 51 48
Welfare of SC, ST & OBC 24 22 39 31 32 41
Labour & Labour Welfare 2 3 4 3 4 7
Social Security 28 21 46 39 45 51
Nutrition 11 11 12 14 13 18
Relief on Account of Natural Calamity 11 21 52 11 13 13
Economic Services 170 237 307 369 339 448
Agriculture & Allied 62 83 101 103 110 163
Rural Development 34 66 73 88 76 87
Irrigation & Flood Control 8 8 7 7 7 9
Energy 33 51 82 125 105 140
Industry & Minerals 15 13 24 28 24 26
Transport & Communications 14 13 15 12 12 15
General Economic Services 2 2 2 3 3 3
General Services 206 224 269 310 367 367
Grants‐in‐aid & Contributions 45 42 65 69 75 75


Madhya Pradesh Capital expenditure (Rs bn)
Total Capital Outlay 108 119 175 273 281 293
Developmental Services 106 116 172 266 274 284
Social Services 19 21 37 33 51 76
Education, Sports, Art 1 3 11 7 9 18
Medical/Public Health 2 2 2 6 16 14
Water Supply & Sanitation 8 9 9 7 8 14
Housing 1 1 1 2 0 1
Urban Development 1 1 7 2 6 13
Welfare of SC, ST & OBC 3 3 5 5 11 13
Social Security 3 1 1 2 1 1
Economic Services 87 96 135 233 223 208
Agriculture & Allied 2 2 1 7 4 6
Rural Development 7 12 24 32 23 31
Irrigation & Flood Control 45 41 65 85 69 87
Energy 6 9 5 47 67 22
Industry & Minerals 2 1 1 15 3 3
Transport 24 29 37 47 56 59
Gen. Economic Services 1 1 1 1 1 1
General Services 2 3 3 7 8 9

Madhya Pradesh population (‘000)
80,000 Rural Urban Total
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
‐
1991 2001 2011

Source: RBI, CensusIndia, PhillipCapital India Research

Schedule caste population as a % of total population Schedule tribe population as a % of total population
20% India Madhya Pradesh India Madhya Pradesh

30%
18%
16% 25%
14%
20%
12%
10% 15%
8%
6% 10%
4%
5%
2%
0% 0%
Rural Urban Total Rural Urban Total

Source: RBI, CensusIndia, PhillipCapital India Research


INDIA STRATEEGY UPDATE

Maadhya Pradesh overall literracy rate (%) Madhya Pradesh’s literacy rate sschedule wise
e ‐ 2011 (%)
Literaacy Rate (%) 25% Literaccy %
80
0%
69% 21%
%
70
0% 64%
20%
60
0%
16
6%
50
0% 45% 15%
40
0%
10%
30
0%
20
0%
5%
10
0%
0
0% 0%
91
199 2001 2011 SC
C STT

Source: RBI, CensusIn
ndia, NITIAayog, Ph
hillipCapital India R
Research

Maadhya Pradesh poverty rate (%)
60
0% Poverty Rate (%)
48.60%
50
0%
40
0% 36
6.70%
31.65%
30
0%
20
0%
10
0%
0
0%
1991 2
2001 201
11

ndia, NITIAayog, Ph
Research

Maadhya Pradesh rural emplo
oyment breakk‐up (‘000) Madhya Pradesh urban employyment break‐‐up (‘000)
Agri Agri
Mining Mining
Manufacturingg Manufacturin ng
Electricity 1% Electricity
Construction Constructionn
Wholesale/Reetail/Trade etc. Wholesale/R Retail/Trade etc.
Transport, Sto
orage & Comm. 1% 11% Transport, Sttorage & Comm.
Financial/Insurance 5% 20%
0
0%
Public/Admin
16%
72% 13% 4%
9%
4% 1%
12%
1%
26%
1%
3%

ndia, NITIAayog, Ph
Research

Pagge | 19 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA
A RESEARCH

Madhya Pradesh economic/social statistics
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
Installed Power Capacity (MW) 8381.34 8779.9 10631.65 13804.6 15845.11 17643.96 19618.28
Per Capita Availability of Power (kWh) 640.4 570.2 609.8 680.3 731.2 859.2 905.8
Length of Nat. Highways (kms) 5027 5027 5064 5116 5116 5184 5194
Length of Roads (in the state) (kms) 189915 197293 201261 228816 279996 288931 289940
Railway Route (kms) 4948 4955 4954 4955 4976 4979 5000
Deposits by Schedule Comm. Banks (Rsbn) 1381 1669 1986 2249 2793 2825 3130
Credit by Schedule Comm. Banks (Rsbn) 768 945 1157 1358 1530 1729 1906
Credit to Agri Sector (Rsbn) 211 270 292 397 464 505 568
Credit to Industry (Rsbn) 257 298 347 358 382 393 408
Personal Loans (Rsbn) 174 205 218 288 344 414 481
Social Sector Expenditure (Rsbn) 234.5 271.3 333.7 357.4 443.8 619.2 722.9
Per Capita Income (Constant) (Rs) 38551 41287 42778 44357 46324 52406 55442
Source: RBI, CensusIndia, NITIAayog, State Government, CEA, PhillipCapital India Research

APPENDIX

Ladli Lakshmi Yojna

Source: Governmentyojana.in

Ladli Lakshmi Yojna’s aim is to eliminate school dropouts among girl students and to
encourage them to study at least up to the pre‐college level. Benefits under this
scheme start right from the birth of the girl child and they will continue until the girl
gets married.

How it works: The government purchases National saving certificates of Rs 30,000 (Rs
6000/year for five years post birth), which it renews from time to time. On completion
of 21 years, a girl child would get Rs 100,000 along with partial payments of Rs
13,500 in grade 6, 9 and 11 and a total Rs 4,800 (Rs 200 monthly) during higher
secondary education. This scheme is limited to the BPL category; also, it mandates
that the girl should not marry before the age of 18 years.

So far, benefits were given to 2.7mn girls; Rs 90bn is budgeted for this scheme in
FY19.



Mukhyamantri Teerth Yarta Yojna

Source: Seekhe.com

Under the Mukhyamantri Teerth‐Darshan Yojna, the state government will extend
one‐time assistance in a lifetime to senior citizens above 60 years of age to visit a
prescribed pilgrimage outside the state.

How it works: Pilgrims must be over 60 years of age and have Madhya Pradesh
domicile. They must not be taxpayers and should not have taken benefit of Teerth‐
Darshan Yojna earlier.

This scheme targets 100,000 eligible people every year

Sambal Yojna

Source: Airinfo.com

What it is: Eligible consumers would need to pay an electricity bill of only Rs 200/ per
month. If the payable bill is of a lesser amount, the actual payment amount has to be
paid. If the electricity bill exceeds Rs 200, the difference will be given in the form of
subsidy by the government.

Benefits given to: Electricity given at Rs 200/ month to 8.8mn families in the states,
this scheme is applicable in rural as well as urban regions. The benefit of this scheme
is limited to BPL families only.


Rating Methodology
We rate stock on absolute return basis. Our target price for the stocks has an investment horizon of one year.
Rating Criteria Definition
BUY >= +15 Target price is equal to or more than 15 of current market price
NEUTRAL ‐15 > to < +15 Target price is less than +15 but more than ‐15
SELL <= ‐15 Target price is less than or equal to ‐15.

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