REAGAN-BUSH '84 ·I

The President's Authorized Campaign Committee

MEMORANDUM

FROM: Dick Wirthlin

DATE: November 21, 1983

SUBJECT: II THE DAY AFTER II

I thought the attached survey would be of interest to you.

440 First Street N.W.. Wa shington , D.C. 20001 (202) 383-1984

Paid for by Rl'agan -Bus h '8-l : Paul Laxalt . Chai rm an : Angela M. Buchanan Jackson . Trt>asurcr
 News from
THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY
Office of News and Public A ffairs I Washingt on , D. C. 20052 I (202)676-6460

Contact: William C. Adams 676-7494 (office)

548-7359 (home)
Dennis J. Smith 298-7700 (office)
For Immediate Release November 21, 1983

NATIONWIDE SURVEY BY G. W. PROFESSOR FINDS

NO FALLOUT FROM THE DAY AFTER

ABC's "The Day After" had no immediate affect on attitudes

toward nuclear war or defense policy, according to an overnight
nationwide survey directed by Prof. William Adams of George
Washington University.
"Those who predicted the movie would produce at least a short-term
bonanza in additional anti-nuclear sentiment among the general public were
completely wrong," said Prof. Adams .
Findings announced this morning were based on a random sample of 928
viewers across the country -- half interviewed just before watching the
movie and half polled shortly after they finished watching it. Pol li ng was
conducted through Smith, Berlin & Associates, a Washington, D.C. survey firm.
Among the major findings:

*** No change occurred in views on the likelihood of nuclear war.

Before the movie, 46 %said nuclear war was "likely" during the ne xt 10 years.
After th e mo vi e , a nea r l y i den t i ca l 47 ~6 s a i d it was " l i ke l y . "

*** Most people were pessi mi sti c ab out the chances of thei r surviving
a nuclear war both before and after the movie. Before the movie, 81 %said
their chances were poor or none at all. Similarly, after the movie, 80 ~6
came to the same conclusion.
 *** There was no political fallout from the movie among average viewers.
Defense and arms control issues showed no movement among those who had just
seen "The Day After.''
*** There was no shift in the sma 11 segment who wanted to "scrap
all U.S. nuclear weapons -- regardless of what the Soviet Union does."
Only 13 %took that position before the movie. After the movie, the figure
was 11 %, a statistically insignificant difference.

*** After the movie, there was no increase in the proport i on of

those favoring a bilateral nuclear freeze. Nor was there any increase
in those who wanted to cut the defense budget.

*** President Reagan suffered no damage from the movie. In fact,

after the movie, Reagan's ratings improved slightly.

*** Many analysts had speculated that the movie might increase

feelings of helplessness. However, after the movie, people were not

more likely to say they were politically powerless.

The team of nine G.W. researchers who conducted the study with
Smith, Berlin &Associates will publish a detailed report on the survey
findings in December.

Prof. Adams commented: "Our evidence is that The Day After failed
to change existing views on the horror of nuclear war, the need for mutual
arms control, and the strategy of deterrence."
 REAGAN-BUSH '84
The President's Authorized Campaign Committee

PRE-MOVIE POST-MOVIE

Do you think current U.S. Government

spending on the military and natl.
defense is? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Too Much 39% 38%
Too Little 17 18
About the right 35 30
amount
Uncertain 10 14

Would you support or oppose an agree-

ment for both the U.S. and the Soviet
Union to freeze nuclear weapons at
current levels? . . . . . . . . . Support 75 78
Oppose 15 14
Uncertain 10 9

Would you support or oppose a plan for the

United States to scrap all U.S. Nuclear
weapons--regardless of what the Soviet
Union does? Support 13 11
Oppose 80 83
Uncertain 7 6

In y our opinion, how likely is a full-

scale nuclear war within the next ten
years? Extrememly likely 12 13
Somewhat likel y 34 34
Somewhat unlikel y 32 29
Extremely unlikel y 16 15
Uncertain - 6 9

Do y ou think a major nuclear war would be

more likel y if the President were Ronald
Reagan or Walter Mondale?
Reagan 36 28
Mondale 18 16
Other/Neither 47 56

If there were a nuclear war, what do you

think would be your chance of living
through it? Would you have
A good chance l 3
About a 50-50 chance 12 12
A poor chance 35 37
No chance at all 47 42
Un certain 5 6

4-10 FiL t t ree t \ .\\'. . \\'a ·hington. D.C. 20001 (202) 383-198-i
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Page 2
PRE-MOVIE !'OST-MOVIE

Would y ou agree or disagree with this

statement: There is nothing I can
do to influence war or peace.
Agree 32% 28 %
Disagree 62 67
Uncertain 6 5

Do y ou think that the movie about Nuclear

war is going to be politically fair, or do
y ou think it will be mainly propaganda?
Fair 40 63
Propaganda 26 21
Uncertain 34 16

If the presidential election were today

and the choice were between Ronald Reagan
and Walter Mondale, who would you be more
likely to vote for? Reagan 46 43
Mondale 36 27
Uncertain 20 29