Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Patrick Roger
Strasbourg University, EM Strasbourg Business School
May 2010
Contents
Introduction 8
Bibliography 114
.
T
P()
P()
10
∈ A
(, A) A
∅ ∈ A.
σ
σ
11
Γ,
∅, Γ .
Bj
Bj ) Γ
Bj Γ Bj
∅
12
BΓ 2K
A
T > 1
T
P() t < T,
P().
Card() Card()
) Card() < Card(P()).
P()
13
= {uu; ud; du; dd}
A′ = {∅; {uu; ud} ; {du; dd} ; }
P(). {du; dd} = {uu; ud}c
{uu; ud} {du; dd} = ∈ A.
uu = u2
ր
u
ց
ր ud
1
ց du
ր
d
ց
dd = d2
{uu; ud}
.
{uu; ud} .
ud du
ud
Γ′ Γ.
14
15
P () = 1
P (B) + P (B c ) = P () = 1
16
P (∅) = 0
∀ B ∈ A, P (B c ) = 1 − P (B)
∅ P ( ∅) = P () + P (∅) =
P () = 1. P (∅) = 0
B1 ⊆ B2 ⇒ P (B2 ) = P (B1 (B2 B1c )) = P (B1 ) + P (B2 B1c ) ≥
P (B1 )
n
(Bn , n ∈ N) un = P p=1 Bp
P () = 1
(Bn , n ∈N)
P n∈N Bn .
n
(Bn , n ∈ N) vn = P p=1 B p
P (∅) = 0
(Bn , n ∈N)
P n∈N Bn .
P (B B c ) = P (B) + P (B c ) B
B c B B c = , P (B B c ) = P () = 1
P (B c ) = 1 − P (B)
17
[0; 1] × [0; 1]
R2 ; σ
A
, P (A) A P P () = 1;
P
[0; 1] × [0; 1]
18
1 2 1
P (B1 ) = × =
2 3 3
1 1 1
P (B2 ) = × =
3 2 6
19
1
18 1
P (B1 |B2 ) = 1 = = P (B1 )
6
3
B1 B2 .
20
B1 B2
B1 ,
B2 B1
∀B ∈ G, ∀B ′ ∈ G ′ , P (B ∩ B ′ ) = P (B) × P (B ′ )
21
n, Cn ⊂ B,
22
(B, AB , P (. |B )).
23
n
n
P (C) = P C Bi = P (C |Bi )P (Bi )
i=1 i=1
P C Bj = P (C |Bj )P (Bj ) = P (Bj |C )P (C)
24
P (C)
C
B1 B2 = B1c
P (C |B1 )P (B1 )
P (B1 |C ) =
P (C |B1 )P (B1 ) + P (C |B2 )P (B2 )
P (B1 ) = 10−4
P (C |B1 ) = 0.99
P (C |B2 ) = 0.01
0.99 × 10−4
P (B1 |C ) = ≃ 0.01
0.99 × 10−4 + 0.01 × (1 − 10−4 )
25
26
27
Card() =
4 X, Y
X
X(ω)
Y (ω) = 2.
ω 2 ω 4 Y
X.
X Y
ω1
ω2
ω3
ω4
1, S1
{du; dd} {uu; ud}
B1
B1 = {∅, , {du; dd} , {uu; ud}}
28
29
30
X(ω)
() 3×() 3×()
= 35
= 63
= 21 1
() 120 () 120 () 120 120
3
/ 3 = 35/120.
63 + 35 + 21 + 1 = 120
{X = k} {ω ∈ X(ω) = k}.
31
(, A, P )
PX BX
A BX A.
−∞ +∞ n
P (X ≥ x) = 1 − FX (x) = 0.99
X
|x| .
32
33
34
X {x1 , ..., xn } ,
xi = xj i = j Γ = {B1 , ..., Bn }
n
X= xi Bi
i=1
Card() < +∞
{ω }
i
35
fX (g −1 (x))
fY (x) = x ∈ Y ()
|g ′ (g −1 (x))|
= 0
36
37
4021
40 63
1 40 21 40 63
$40 × +$ × +$ × = $1
120 21 120 63 120
38
n xi
X =
B E(X) = E(B ) = P (B).
X ni=1 xi Bi Bi = {X = xi } ,
n n n
E(X) = E xi Bi = xi E (Bi ) = xi pi
i=1 i=1 i=1
X Y X + Y
39
V
(, A, P ) X
X E(X) XdP,
E(X) = XdP = sup {E(Y ), Y ≤ X}
Y ∈V
X = X+ − X−
V
f sup∈ f (x)
f(x) x ∈ A.
40
41
X X + − X −
42
50 = 12 (0 + 100)
E(X)
X.
E [u(X)] ≤ u [E(X)]
u(x)
(x1 , u(x1 )) (x2 , u(x2 )).
f (x, y) λ ∈ [0; 1] , f(λx + (1 − λ)y) ≥
λf (x) + (1 − λ)f(y)
43
u′ > 0
u′′ < 0
N
1/2. P (N = n) = 21n
n − 1
2n.
X
+∞
+∞
n 1
E(X) = 2 × P (N = n) = 2n × = +∞
n=1 n=1
2n
44
+∞
+∞
1 n
E(ln(X)) = ln(2n ) × n
= ln(2)
n=1
2 n=1
2n
45
2 (X) = E(X 2 )
E (X − E(X))2 = E X 2 − 2XE(X) + E(X)2
= E X 2 − 2E [XE(X)] + E(X)2
= E(X 2 ) − 2E(X)2 + E(X)2
= E(X 2 ) − E(X)2
σ σ
46
0
E(X) = 1 Y = X − E(X)
1
2
Y = −2
−1
X Y
V (X) = V (Y ) = 0, 25 × 12 + 22 + (−2)2 + (−1)2 = 2.5
V (X) = V (X + c)
c.
(x1 , x2 , ...., xn) X
n
2 1
s = (xi − x)2
n − 1 i=1
n − 1 n
X x.
X
X, σ(X) V (X)
σ(X) = V (X)
47
48
n (X) = E(X n )
3 (X − E(X))
Sk(X) =
σ(X)3
n xi − x 3
=
Sk
(n − 1)(n − 2) s
Sk = −0.73
49
50
d(f, g) = 0 f g
51
∈ /⇔X(ω)
P (ωXRY X == = 1
Y YP(ω))
X = Y a.s ⇔ P (X = Y ) = 1
XRY ⇔ X = Y P
P P
P P
52
X + Y 1 ≤ X1 + Y 1
αX1 = |α| X1
53
L
Xn → X.
54
Z = X + tY t ∈ R
E Z 2 = E X 2 + 2tXY + t2 Y 2 ≥ 0
= E X 2 + 2tE (XY ) + t2 E Y 2
55
∀x ∈ R2 , f (x) = a1 x1 + a2 x2
a1 a2 x′ = (x1 , x2 ).
(a1 , a2 ) f. a′ = (a1 , a2 )
x ∈ R2 f(x)
H
H
H
56
< x, y >= x y .
57
A
∀λ ∈ [0; 1] , ∀(x, y) ∈ A × A, λx + (1 − λ)y ∈ A.
R , x y < x, y > / x . y .
A
∀λ ∈ [0; 1] , ∀(x, y) ∈ A × A, λx + (1 − λ)y ∈ A.
R , x y < x, y > / x . y .
58
X − Z, Y − Z ≤ 0 Y ∈ C
59
E(X) = E(Y ) = 2.
60
X Y
X, Y
ρXY =
X2 Y 2
ρXY
X Y.
61
Cov(aX + b, cZ + d) = ac × Cov(X, Z)
ρaX+b,cZ+d = sign(ac) × ρXZ
Y
W
σ(aX + b) = |a| σ(X) σ(cY + d) = |c| σ(Y )
62
63
X0 = EQ (X1 )
= {ω 1 , ω 2 } , X1 (ω 1 ) = 200 X1 (ω 2 ) = 0.
Q(ω 1 ) = q1 = 0.45
Q(ω 2 ) = q2 = 1 − q1 = 0.55
q1 × 200 + q2 × 0 = 90
q1 + q2 = 1
Q′ Y0 = EQ′ (Y1 ).
150Q′ (ω 1 ) + 110 (1 − Q′ (ω 1 )) = 120
64
θZ
−2 × 130 + 5 × 120 − 350 = −10
(X0 , Y0 )
65
Q”(ω 1 ) = 12
40
= 0.3.
r
1+r
1
, X1
1
X0 = EQ (X1 )
1+r
66
∀B ∈ A, P (B) = 0 ⇒ Q(B) = 0
∀B ∈ A, P (B) = 0 ⇔ Q(B) = 0
67
dQ dP
= 1/
dP dQ
EQ (X1 ) = E (φX1 )
Card() = N A = P () P (ω) > 0
ω
Q({ω}) = φdP = φ(ω)P (ω)
{ω}
68
69
E(X)
Xi X
V (X1 ) ... Cov(X1 , Xj ) Cov(X1 , Xn )
X = Cov(Xj , X1 )
V (Xj )
Cov(Xn , X1 ) V (Xn )
X
2
σ 1 ... σ 1j σ 1n
X = σ j1 2
σj
2
σ n1 σn
70
E(R) = U ′ E(X)
V (R) = U ′ X U
E(X)
U
n
Ui = 1
i=1
71
72
χ2 , t
73
X = X .
74
75
s = 0 s = t
t
ln(u) ln(d) p 1 − p.
76
77
λk
∀k ∈ N, P (X = k)= exp(−λ)
k!
X ∼ P(λ).
P(2).
78
+∞
+∞
+∞
λk λk
E(X) = kP (X = k) = k exp(−λ) = exp(−λ) k
k! k!
k=0 k=0 k=1
+∞
+∞ k
λk−1 λ
= λ exp(−λ) = λ exp(−λ) = λ exp(−λ) exp(λ) = λ
k=1
(k − 1)! k=0
k!
79
+∞
k +∞
k +∞
2λ 2λ λk−1
k = k =λ k
k=0
k! k=1
k! k=1
(k − 1)!
+∞
+∞
λk−1 λk−1
= λ (k − 1) +λ
(k − 1)! (k − 1)!
k=1 k=1
+∞ k
+∞ k
2 λ λ
= λ +λ
k! k=0k=0
k!
2
= λ + λ exp(λ)
P(λ),
80
[0; 1] .
[c; d]
[a; b]
d−c
PX ([c; d]) = PX (]c; d]) = = FX (d) − FX (c)
b−a
[a; b]
a b.
81
82
83
N (0, 1)
84
+∞ 2
1 1 x−m
E(X) = √ x exp − dx
σ 2π −∞ 2 σ
y = x−m
σ
,
+∞
1 1 2
E(X) = √ (σy + m) exp − y dy
2π −∞ 2
+∞ +∞
σ 1 2 m 1 2
= √ y exp − y dy + √ exp − y dy
2π −∞ 2 2π −∞ 2
+∞
σ 1
= − √ exp − y 2 +m=m
2π 2 −∞
E(X) = m. exp − 12 y 2
1. σ 2 (X) = σ 2 .
85
86
X ∼ LN (m, σ 2 ).
m = 0 σ = 1
87
2
+∞
1 1 y−m
E(X) = √ exp(y) exp − dy
σ 2π −∞ 2 σ
m σ σ > 0. X 1
m σ
X K 1
max(X − K; 0)
88
+∞ − ln(K) + m + σ2
89
90
Xi ∀i,
Xi ∼ N (0, 1).
σ 2 (X1 , ....Xn )
(m, σ 20 ), Y
n
2
Xi − m
Y =
j=1
σ0
91
92
93
94
X Y
ω1 1 1
ω2 2 1
ω3 3 2
ω4 4 2
X Y
1
E(X) = (1 + 2 + 3 + 4) = 2.5
4
1
E(Y ) = (1 + 1 + 2 + 2) = 1.5
4
Y X .
95
P ({X = x} ∩ {Y = yi })
PX|Y (x |yi ) = P (X = x |Y = yi ) =
P ({Y = yi })
96
fXY (x, y)
fX|Y (x |y ) =
fY (y)
97
X Y.
Y,
E(X |Y )
ω1 1.5
ω2 1.5
ω3 3.5
ω4 3.5
X Y
98
X Y fX fY
fX|Y (x |y ) .
X {Y = y}
+∞
E (X |Y = y ) = xfX|Y (x |y )dx
−∞
99
• X
E(X |B ) B.
B = {∅, {ω1 , ω 2 } , {ω 3 , ω 4 } , }
p1 x1 + p2 x2 = p1 z1 + p2 z2
p3 x3 + p4 x4 = p3 z3 + p4 z4
Card() = 4, X
100
z1 = z2
z3 = z4
1
z1 = z2 = [p1 x1 + p2 x2 ] = E (X |B1 )
p1 + p2
1
z3 = z4 = [p3 x3 + p4 x4 ] = E (X |B2 )
p3 + p4
B1 (B2 )
X
B1 (B2 ).
X B, E (X |B )
X.
101
z1 = x +x
2
. z
x ∈ R
2
p + q = 1, p > 0, q > 0.
z1 = px1 + qx2
z1
x
102
E (X − Z)2 = p1 (x1 −z1 )2 +p2 (x2 −z1 )2 +p3 (x3 −z3 )2 +p4 (x4 −z3 )2
103
X c ∈ R, E (X |B ) = c
∀(a, b) ∈ R2 , E (aX + bY |B ) = aE (X |B ) + bE (Y |B )
X ≤ Y, E (X |B ) ≤ E (Y |B )
E (E (X |B′ ) |B ) = E (X |B )
X B E (XY |B ) = X E (Y |B )
X B, E (X |B ) = E(X)
E (X |B′ ) X L2 (, B′ , P ) . E (E (X |B′ ) |B )
L2 (, B, P ) E (X |B ′ )
L2 (, B ′ , P )
L (, B, P )
2
104
X −E(X) Y.
105
p = 1 n = 2
p = 1 n = 2
σ 12
E (X1 |X2 = x2 ) = m1 + (y2 − m2 )
σ 22
σ2
X |X =x = σ 21 − 12
σ 22
ρ12
106
σ 12
E (X1 |X2 = x2 ) = m1 + (x2 − m2 )
σ 22
2 σ 212
X |X =x = σ1 − 2
σ2
2
σ2 1 (−σ 22 x1 + σ 22 m1 + σ 12 x2 − σ 12 m2 )
= √ 2 2 exp −
2π (σ 1 σ 2 − σ 212 ) 2 σ 22 (σ 21 σ 22 − σ 212 )
g(x1 ) = fX |X (x1 |x2 ).
107
P
(Xn , n ∈ N) X Xn → X
ε > 0
lim P (|Xn − X| > ε) = 0
n→+∞
108
a.s
(Xn , n ∈ N) X Xn → X
0 ⊂ P (0 ) = 1
∀ω ∈ 0 , lim Xn (ω) = X(ω)
n→+∞
109
110
σ2
P (|Zn − | ≥ ε) ≤
nε2
limn→+∞ V (Xn − X) = 0
111
N
1
N εi
i=1
p
112
k(n)
V i=1 Yin
lim =1
n→+∞ s2n
Y = Y1n , ..., Yk(n)n
, n ≥ 1
Y1 − E (Y1 ) , ...., Yk(n) − E Yk(n) , n ≥ 1
n n n n
k(n) n
n ≥ 1, Zn = i=1 Yi
E (Zn ) → V (Zn ) → σ 2 = 0 Zn
Z
113
114
115