What to Expect

from Tech

an IT Management eBook
Contents…
What to Expect from Tech

This content was adapted from Internet.com’s CIO Update, Datamation, ServerWatch,
Enterprise Storage Forum, eSecurity Planet, and Enterprise Mobile Today Web sites.
Contributors: Andy Patrizio, Rob Enderle, Amy Newman, Henry Newman, Larry Barrett,
Bruce Byfield, and Michelle Megna.

2
2 IT’s Comeback Built Around Recovery

4 The Year and Decade of the Cloud

4 6
6 Five Ways Virtualization Will Change

8  he Future of Data Storage: FCoE, SSD Mergers,

T
But No Clouds

8 11
11 Nine Open Source Predictions

15 The Future of Malware

15 17
17 New Trends in Mobile
 What to Expect from Tech

IT’s Comeback
Built Around Recovery
By Andy Patrizio

T
he end of the year means at least one certainty
beyond holiday shopping and empty wallets:
Predictions for the coming year. That’s where
the market research firm IDC comes in, with its forecast
for 2010 built around assumptions of a return to growth
next year.
Much of the report, IDC Predictions 2010: Recovery and
Transformation authored by IDC’s chief analyst Frank Gens,
can be summed up in a word: recovery.
the new technologies vendors have been crowing about
in recent years. One of those new technologies is cloud
computing, which IDC predicts will expand and mature
as a strategic battle for cloud platform leadership erupts.
There will be new public cloud hotspots, private cloud of-
ferings, cloud appliances, and offerings that bridge public
and private clouds.

IDC predicts a growth rate of 3.2 percent in the IT indus-

try in 2010, with a return to 2008 spending levels (the pe-
riod before things went off the rails) to about $1.5 trillion.
Emerging markets will lead the way, with spending by the
BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) growing 8
percent to 13 percent.

In particular, the telecommunications market will see im-

proving stability worldwide and post 3 percent growth.
Public networks will continue the aggressive move to fi-
ber, 3G, and 4G wireless. However, IDC thinks 4G will be
over-hyped, while mobile device makers, wireless carriers,
and cloud services providers will be forced to team up
to provide mobile computing devices with consolidated,
built-in Internet connectivity and services. Meanwhile, the
researcher expects the FCC to begin regulating new VoIP
services like Google Voice.

Spending for New Tech

For IDC, such developments will pave the way for a second
key term: “transformation.” The research firm believes that
businesses will emerge from the technological coma that
has paralyzed global spending and begin spending on

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 What to Expect from Tech

Smartphones and mobile Internet devices will remain a
hot area as well, with much of the interest likely to con-
tinue centering around Apple’s iPhone in two ways: further
growth in the mobile app market, and new efforts by com-
petitors trying to knock Apple off its perch. In particular,
IDC predicts the number of applications in Apple’s App
Store will triple to 300,000. It also said it expects Apple to
release the rumored “iPad” tablet PC-style device that has
been the subject of buzz for months.
Apple’s App Store isn’t the only mobile application player
likely to grow, IDC said. The Google-backed Android mo-
bile OS will see a five-fold increase in its available apps
next year, according to the researcher. In part, that’s be-
cause Android apps represent a far smaller field with more
room for growth. All in all, IDC expects more than 1 billion
people worldwide will access the Internet via mobile de-
vices like smartphones and tablets like the iPad.
In addition to cloud and mobility, IDC anticipates rising
energy costs and pressure from the Copenhagen Climate
Change Conference will make sustainability a source of re-
newed opportunity for the IT industry in 2010.

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 What to Expect from Tech

The Year and

Decade of the Cloud
By Rob Enderle

I
t is interesting that we tend to go through cycles. We
started off with big centralized computers and rela-
tively dumb terminals. Now with the rapid growth
in smartphones, the expected success of smartbooks and
smart-tablets (like the rumored Apple release), and the
proliferation of devices like plug computers we appear to
be facing a future that looks a lot like our past.
Services-Based Computing
We’ve called this by a lot of names over the years, with
the “The Cloud” being the current tag we are putting on
a very old idea. But the reality is that what is coming is a
computing experience that is more services oriented than
hardware or software oriented. It’s one that you will likely
increasingly be paying for over time.

As with any change, vendors that If you think back, that is how main-
are in power this decade may not frame computing started. One
be in power in the next decade of IBM’s greatest mistakes was
unless they significantly change to shift from what was largely a
how they think about the market. leasing/services model and move
Companies that had their roots into a sales model. The company
and beginnings in large systems did this because the latter didn’t
like EMC, HP, and IBM may have assure customer loyalty and the
advantages in terms of services, customers found other more at-
structure, and systems. But they tractive vendors to work with.
will still have to deal with the in-
dividual users who aren’t planning The danger of services-based
on giving up any power. computing is that it follows more
of a utility model, which means
Companies like Apple and Micro- very quickly growth can become
soft, which started off more user elusive. Firms then want to go
focused, will need to better em- back to selling stuff, which takes
brace the concepts of big centralized systems or be trivial- what was a steady income and profit and puts it on more
ized by them. This, of course, provides a unique oppor- of a quarterly and yearly rollercoaster.
tunity for new companies – like Google – to come in and
dominate what is coming because they can grow into the In the near term, however, we should see improvements in
business. But they still have to roll over the other players. being able to match costs to revenues, a massive poten-
tial reduction in capital expenditures, and fewer financial
Let’s chat about what’s coming. surprises.

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 What to Expect from Tech
Public vs. Private Cloud
Unlike the typical battle between vendors, the fight to
watch will be the battle between low-cost public cloud
services and potentially more reliable and more secure,
but more expensive, private cloud alternatives.
I doubt there will be a definitive winner here. But I expect
the private cloud efforts will be defined by better perfor-
mance and fewer problems while the public cloud efforts
by lower costs, breaches, and performance issues.
Some companies and public entities will accept the risks as-
sociated with the public cloud to gain the financial benefits
for some or all things, while others will prefer the private
cloud for its advantages and find the benefits worth the ex-
tra cost. Undoubtedly there will be mistakes on both sides
and the challenge will be to properly balance the savings
and benefits so that the decisions appear reasonable.
Is Google or EMC the New Kingmaker?
This would seem a very strange question given how dif-
ferent the two companies are. The firms fall solidly in op-
posite camps during this private vs. public cloud battle.
Google needs the stature of an enterprise vendor, but if
they try to become one they could repeat Microsoft’s mis-
take and lose much of what made them the darling of the
2000s. This would be just like Microsoft lost much of what
made them the darling of the 1990s by focusing too much
on the enterprise this decade.
For EMC, it has to step up to the other side and embrace
the power of the line manger who took control of most of
the technology spending this decade. EMC has a fabulous
focus on customer satisfaction that leads their segment.
But they now need the breadth to reach down into the de-
cision makers who may currently find it vastly simpler to go
in the direction of the public cloud. However, if they drift
too far in that direction they could damage their enterprise
advantage.
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Both companies could close the gap with partners and,
if this is the case, EMC has the advantage because they
currently partner better at this level than Google does. Yet
that may be changing as Google expands into the PC OEM
base with Android.
A Google/Dell, Google/Lenovo/ThinkPad, and particularly
a Google IBM partnership focused on this market could
be very powerful as it expands into this new market. What
would be interesting on EMC’s side would be a partner-
ship with Apple. (But given Apple’s partnering history I
wouldn’t bet on a long tenure for the poor sucker who had
to manage that relationship).
Wrapping Up
In the end, while EMC and Google likely to best define
this fight, neither is yet ideally suited to play in a world
with both public and private cloud elements. Much like the
last decade was defined, at least in business, by interoper-
ability, this new one is likely to be defined by partnerships.
These partnerships might be ones we couldn’t have imag-
ined before, with solutions that are a blend of public and
private components.
It is interesting to note that of all the companies Microsoft
is likely the only one that has a full blend, with Azure, of
all of the software elements and interoperability practices
to become the major power for the next decade. It would
require an effort like .NET or their original push to the In-
ternet to do this. Perhaps this will be Steve Ballmer’s big-
gest test: Can he, like Bill Gates did, turn the company on
a dime?
We’ll see, but one thing is sure, when this coming decade
is over the surviving players won’t look anything like they
do today. Even Apple, the shining star of this decade, will
have to change to reflect the coming New World.
I hope you all had a wonderful New Year and that the de-
cade to come provides what you hope and need.
 What to Expect from Tech

Five Ways Virtualization

Will Change
By Amy Newman

W
ith the end of the year and the decade upon up the ante in 2010. Prices will likely be slashed even more
us, it’s time to give some thought to the than they were in 2009. Also expect to hear much more
coming year and decade. Here are five pre- from Red Hat about KVM as well as an uptick in the user
dictions of what’s in store for virtualization in the coming base.
year. Some are major and obvious; others may seem less
significant, but they bring with them underlying change. At the other extreme, niche hypervisors will take hold.
All are subjective. While they may not command the market share that Hyper-
V aspires to or VMware has, they will be critical to some
1. Virtualization Moves Down Market, organizations. In July, IBM released version 7 of its POWER
processor. As part of the refresh, the PowerVM hypervisor
Becomes More Grizzled
was souped up. Oracle, meanwhile, swallowed Virtual Iron
Recent studies from Gartner and IDC found that the rate at
back in May, digested the technology and spit up the rest.
which enterprises are adopting virtualization slowed year
While VirtualBox’s potential fate seems a bit more positive,
over year in 2009. While virtualization remained a bright
when Oracle’s acquisition of Sun goes through, nothing is
spot in a troubled worldwide economy, the rate of growth
ever certain.
declined. To some degree, this is attributable to what was
being measured: new servers purchased for virtualizing.
With hardware purchases down across the board, this is a
logical transpiration.

In reality, the virtual pie remains largely unsliced, and SMBs

are getting into the act more than ever before. Expect
more of that in 2010, along with solutions that are simple
to deploy and manage aimed at SMBs.

There is already a perception that virtualization is mature.

Whether or not this is true is arguable, but cloud comput-
ing appears to have taken vitalization’s seat on the Cool!
New! Technology Bench.

2. Hypervisor Landscape to Change

Expect change on two fronts: On one side increased com-
moditization, which has been well under way, for some
time. Everybody likes to throw shots at VMware, but the
competition has yet to dethrone it. Expect Microsoft to

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 What to Expect from Tech

3. Management Tools
In an up economy, small privately held companies go pub-
lic to raise money. In a down economy, big companies go
shopping and are able to buy the functionality. Microsoft
announced plans to purchase Opalis in December. Be on
the lookout for more in 2010.
4. Security
None of the virtualization software out there has been with-
out vulnerabilities and other weaknesses, and there have
been ample security breaches this year. Yet there hasn’t
been a significant virtualization-related breach. With cloud
deployments on the increase, expect this to change. De-
pending on the severity of the breach, it will likely impact
the public cloud’s future in the enterprise.
Accounting, for example, generally doesn’t care where the
general ledger sits, so long as staff members can access it.
But if the server is inaccessible, or data takes a long time to
load, it will matter. Lines of business also care how they are
charged for resources used. Buying a new server is an eas-
ily charged back expense — as is billing for usage of that
server. But what about when four different departments
are using that server, and they are using varying amounts
of compute power? Such issues will come into play and will
need to be figured out as more enterprises virtualize more
of their infrastructure.
This is the most intangible item on the list, but it may turn
out to have the most significant impact over time.

5. Enterprises Will Take a Closer Look at

the Business Impact of Virtualization
Up until now, enterprises have primarily focused on the
technological impact that virtualization will have. As vir-
tualization moves beyond the data center into the various
lines of business, the technology itself will becomes less
important than how it impacts various departments and
enterprises will shift their focus from the technical impact
of virtualization to the business impact.

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 What to Expect from Tech

The Future of Data Storage:

FCoE, SSD Mergers, But No Clouds
By Henry Newman

A
s I wrote a year ago, the data storage market Despite claims to the contrary, I predicted that the devel-
was going to be tough to predict in 2009 be- opment of Fibre Channel will end with 8Gbps. There have
cause of the economy, and indeed, the econo- been announcements about ratification of a 16Gb FC stan-
my did hold back some technological advances that might dard, but I still believe that 16Gb products are not going
otherwise have occurred. With that as a caveat, we’ll look to really happen. There are a number of issues, including
back on how my predictions for this year fared, and look that most server vendors still do not have PCIe 2.0 in larger
ahead for what might be ahead for data storage and stor- servers, but that will likely change in 2010. These servers
age networking in 2010. have historically been the driv-
ing force for Fibre Channel. A
I had predicted that that at full-duplex, single-port 8Gbit
least one additional vendor FC card requires 1600 MB/sec
would support T10 OSD file of PCIe bus bandwidth, while
systems, which will allow bet- a dual-port card, which is far
ter scalability over most cur- more cost effective, requires
rent block-based file systems. 3200 MB/sec of bandwidth.
I got this one somewhat right: From a bandwidth perspec-
Sun Microsystems announced tive, this translates into 8 lanes
T10 OSD QFS for OpenSolaris, of PCIe 1.1 bus or 4 lanes of
but then canceled the project PCIe 2.0 bus for the single
early in the year and open- port card, or 8 lanes of a PCIe
sourced OSD QFS. As of right 2.0 bus for dual port.
now, no one I am aware of is
offering T10 OSD-based file The problem is that 16 Gbit
systems other than Panasas, dual-port cards will require
so I had it right for at least one 16 lanes of PCIe 2.0 support. I
point in time. am aware of some blade ven-
dors making 16 lane PCIe 2.0
I also predicted that Fibre Channel over Ethernet (FCoE) buses, but I am not aware of any large servers that have
was coming. Well, it’s been hard to miss all the announce- 16 lane support. The reason is likely the architectural com-
ments from server, storage, and networking vendors about plexity and the memory interconnect, which raises the cost
FCoE products and plans. It’ll take a while for FCoE to fully of multiple 16 lane buses. With PCIe 3.0 being late (more
materialize in the marketplace, but it’s well on its way. on this in a moment), I think the jury is still out. Because an-
nouncing plans and having a standard does not mean that
products will exist, the jury is still out on this one.

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 What to Expect from Tech
Speaking of PCIe 3.0, I said that this new standard will
likely be ratified late this year or early next. I predicted
that performance wouldn’t double, as was the case with
the move from PCIe 1.0 to PCIe 2.0; I expected something
more along the lines of a 40 to 60 percent performance
increase. I got this one wrong: PCIe 3.0 ran into some in-
teroperability issues and was pushed back to the second
quarter of 2010, and the expected performance is 1 GB/
sec per lane, which will double performance.
I was right about the direction of hard disk drives this year:
As I wrote late year, “Any increase in enterprise disk drive
density will be in SAS drives, not FC drives. Densities will
likely increase about 50 percent. It is possible that we
might see a 2TB disk drive on the SATA side by the end of
the year.” All correct.
As for RAID, I wrote that “A fair number of people in the
research community, a few bloggers and some in the HPC
community believe that RAID as we know it is a dead-end
technology.” Despite all the interest in the issue, none of
my predictions have so far come true.
I said last year that we would see some products from ven-
dors that support the T10 Data Integrity Field standard
end-to-end. You can purchase HBAs today that support
this functionality, and disk drive vendors have released
SAS drives that support this field, but we’re still waiting to
hear from storage controller vendors.
For storage software, I said that ILM vendors would re-
lease products that address Sarbanes-Oxley compliance,
HIPAA, and e-discovery regulations, and indeed, many
storage hardware and software vendors have released
those types of products.
Another easy one was on file systems, where I said, “There
will be nothing new on the file system front. It will be the
same problems that we have today and the same prob-
lems that we have had for 20 years.” Another easy predic-
tion was that there were going to be no changes with error
management, and again I was right.
9 Back to Contents What to Expect from Tech, an Internet.com IT Management eBook. © 2010, Internet.com, a division of QuinStreet, Inc.
I predicted that POSIX changes for things like T10 DIF and
ILM would start to be discussed given the huge limitations
of POSIX. Well, other than myself, no one is really talking
about this yet.
By my count, I got six right and four wrong, while the jury
is still out on 16-gig Fibre Channel.
Storage Predictions for 2010 and Beyond
I’ll start with some easy predictions this time around.
• FCoE will become available end-to-end, with major stor-
age vendors supporting FCoE interfaces by the end of
2010. This should be an easy prediction, as the market
is demanding FCoE given the potential cost and cabling
savings. It takes longer for the design integration and
testing of storage controllers, so it is no surprise that this
takes longer than server or interconnect changes.
• PCIe 3.0 will make it to market, with availability in blades
first. This is almost a given at this point.
• Multiple storage and server vendors will address the
end-to-end data integrity problem. Now the predic-
tions are getting tougher. There is definitely a market
need given the documented problem of mis-corrected
or undetected errors in the data path, and I believe that
vendors will fill this market need in 2010. This will be the
only major change in file system technology and the first
major change in a long time.
• There will be market consolidation in the flash solid state
drive (SSD) market in 2010. The number of vendors in
the market is just too large for the size of the market.
Some companies will either merge, get bought out, or
disappear. The market for flash disk drives is only so big
and it cannot support the large number of companies in
the market even with the growth of the technology. And
STEC will finally get some competition in the enterprise
SSD market from the likes of Pliant and Seagate.
 What to Expect from Tech
• Flash SSD usage will increase, with multiple RAID ven-
dors and multiple controller card vendors providing bet-
ter support, which means higher bandwidth and more
IOPS in 2010.
• Ten gigabit Ethernet will become the standard connec-
tivity for almost all systems. Higher-end home PCs from
Dell, HP, and others will support this technology. Home
routers from multiple vendors will have this support, like-
ly before the end of the year.
• NFSv4.1 (pNFS) will enter the market with products from
multiple vendors in 2010.
• Forty and 100 GbE will continue their march to product
availability, with the potential for some interconnect be-
tween switches available in 2010, but with certain avail-
ability in 2011. For 40 GbE to be viable for the host side,
dual port, will require PCIe 3.0 with at least 16 lanes, and
at that PCIe 3.0 provides only 16 GB/sec of bandwidth,
while 20 GB/sec is needed for full rate, full duplex opera-
tion. PCIe 3.0 is a must for host side connectivity.
10 Back to Contents What to Expect from Tech, an Internet.com IT Management eBook. © 2010, Internet.com, a division of QuinStreet, Inc.
• Last but not least: By the end of 2011, the cloud hype
that you hear today will be greatly diminished. Clouds
are good for some things, but just like the storage ser-
vice providers and application server providers of the
late 1990s or grid computing in the early part of this
decade, clouds will meet a similar fate. SSPs and ASPs
are providing services for some applications, but they
are not going to solve all problems for all enterprises, as
there is just not enough network bandwidth, the laten-
cies for some applications are too high, and the secu-
rity problem end-to-end has not be solved in a standard
way. Besides, does anyone really see enterprises giving
up control of their most critical data? I sure don’t.
Best wishes for a prosperous 2010.
 What to Expect from Tech

Nine Open Source

Predictions
By Bruce Byfield

E
verything always happens 10 times faster in open
source than in mainstream computing, but, even
by open source standards, 2010 promises to be
an interesting year.
We can take for granted, I think, that open source will con-
tinue to gain popularity. 2010 will not be the fabled Year of
the Linux Desktop, but we should continue to see the same
slow, steady increase in adoption of the past decade.
But what else? Let me prove my foolhardiness and make
nine specific predictions about what to expect in 2010 in
open source communities, technology, and business:
Richard Stallman has publicly urged that Oracle divest it-
self of MySQL, while Monty Widenius, MySQL’s creator, has
started a letter-writing campaign to the European Com-
mission to save the database from being dismembered by
Oracle.
Given that there seems to be no legal logic that would
help these campaigns, I suspect that they will fail. If they
do, continued distrust of Oracle will probably make the
open source community discontinue shipping MySQL in
distributions.

1. Complete Free Video Drivers Arrive

Users have been waiting a long time for open source video
drivers that match proprietary ones feature for feature. But
by the end of next year they may actually arrive. Intel driv-
ers are already solid, and are used on about 25 percent of
open source computers.

However, the Linux 2.6.33 kernel is supposed to include

increased support for both ATI and NVIDIA cards, so major
improvements are a certainty by the end of next year. At
the very least, if features are still missing, they should be
come by mid-2011.

2. The Community Turns to a MySQL

Fork
When Oracle acquired Sun Microsystems in April 2009, it
also acquired MySQL, the popular online database. Eight
months later, exactly what Oracle plans for MySQL remains
uncertain, and people are getting nervous.

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 What to Expect from Tech

Instead, it may turn to some of the existing MySQL forks, lic License, which made the free software concerns more
mostly likely Widenius’ own MariaDB, which is already in obvious than version 2.0.
Ubuntu’s Launchpad. A movement to PostgreSQL, the oth-
er major open source database seems unlikely because it The exact issue for the next conflict remains uncertain.
is less oriented to the needs of Web sites. However, free software supporters have never been shy
about expressing their opinions, and open source adher-
3. The Release of GNOME 3.0 Threatens ents are becoming increasingly vocal in their disdain for
free software in general and its founder Richard Stallman
a User Revolt
in particular. In some places, the rhetoric is getting so ugly
Two years ago, the release of KDE 4.0 nearly ended in a
that the conflict seems only a matter of time.
user revolt because it was a radical departure from ear-
lier versions and lacked some basic key desktop features.
A couple of weeks ago, the likeliest issue appeared to be
GNOME 3.0, tentatively scheduled for September 2010,
GNOME’s possible withdrawal from the free software-ori-
seems unlikely to lack features, but its earliest versions
ented GNU Project – a move would mean almost noth-
suggest it will be as radically new in design as KDE 4.0 –
ing from an everyday perspective, but would probably be
and the reactions indicate that the user reaction could be
seen as a declaration that GNOME was firmly in the open
equally hostile.
source camp. The issue, though, is harder to dispute than
the conflict itself.
GNOME’s main advantage is that its developers can learn
from the experience of KDE. Any hostility need not be
permanent, especially if the next few releases have a clear 5. Open Source Continues to Struggle
roadmap. with Feminism
2009 saw a series of incidences in which people like Rich-
Still, if the complaints are especially strong or prolonged, ard Stallman and Mark Shuttleworth were accused of sex-
who knows? Maybe the reaction against GNOME will at- ism because of remarks made in public. Added to the ob-
tract more users to KDE or lesser known desktops like servation that women are severely under-represented in
Xfce. open source, these incidences make 2009 the year that the
community discovered women’s issues.
4. The Differences Between
To call this discovery controversial is like calling World
Free Software and Open Source
War II socially awkward. It soon provoked excuses, accusa-
Flare Up Again tions of political correctness and other transgressions, and
To outsiders, open source and free software seem alterna-
claims of hidden agenda among feminists – to say nothing
tive names for the same phenomenon. However, to many
of all sorts of special pleading for individual instances and
community members, that is like saying that Protestantism
an astonishing amount of denial.
is no different from Catholicism. Despite numerous simi-
larities, open source is a developer’s movement focused
All the same, the issue is unlikely to go away. The self-
on improving code quality, while free software concen-
described geek feminists are too organized and too de-
trates on how to improve the average user’s control of
termined. And the more that open source becomes main-
their computer.
stream, the more women will become involved with it. But
even more basically, countering the severe under-repre-
Usually, the two philosophies co-exist – often within the
sentation of women in the community is one of the quick-
same project. However, every now and then, their adher-
est ways to attract more contributors, so savvy projects are
ents come into conflict. The last major conflict was a cou-
not about to ignore the issue.
ple of years ago over version 3.0 of the GNU General Pub-

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 What to Expect from Tech
6. Google Chrome OS Brings a Verdict
on Cloud-Based Desktops
Chrome OS, Google’s cloud-based operating system, is
scheduled for release in the second half of 2010. Given
the proverbial beta status of Google products, nobody will
be surprised if this deadline slips, but 2010 should see at
least an advanced beta or release candidate. Despite the
current availability of Jolicloud, for the majority of com-
puter users, Chrome OS is likely to be the first glimpse of a
cloud-based operating system.
The novelty of Chrome OS should bring it millions of
downloads in the first month after its release. Moreover,
Google is working with hardware manufacturers to ensure
that Chrome OS is supported. Yet whether Chrome OS will
maintain a large user base seems questionable. Many of us
already have serious doubts about cloud-based operating
systems, and so far, they seem even more awkward than
the traditional desktops from which they are supposed to
deliver us.
My guess is that Chrome OS will be nothing more than a
niche product. One way or the other, though, we should
have the verdict on the concepts behind it by the end of
2010.
7. Mozilla Firefox and Google Chrome
Compete on the Browser Front
Even if I am correct and Chrome OS enjoys only brief
popularity, its lasting legacy will probably be the Chrome
browser itself. Its speed and multi-threading are challeng-
es that Mozilla Firefox will need to be nimble to meet, es-
pecially since Chrome may mean that Google will withdraw
its support from Mozilla development.
Right now, Firefox’s chief advantage is its thousands of ex-
tensions. Although the first Chrome extensions are now
available, they will not match Mozilla’s in number or versa-
tility for a few years – and then only if a large community
forms around them.
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This situation means that Chrome is no more going to
overtake Mozilla than Mozilla is going to overtake Inter-
net Explore in the foreseeable future. However, in 2010,
Chrome could erode Firefox’s user base in the same way
that Firefox does Internet Explorer’s.
8. Raindrop and WAVE Fail to Find Users
By coincidence, two of the new applications that we are
likely to see in 2010 are Mozilla’s Raindrop, a one-stop mes-
saging and social networking tool, and Google’s WAVE, a
collaboration tool.
Both are interesting for developers and interface design-
ers. However, while I have only read about either one, since
Raindrop is unreleased, and WAVE is available by invitation
only, I would be surprised if either was a major success.
For one thing, both set out to solve problems that average
users do not see as problems. I simply don’t see that most
users want to centralize messaging, or are particularly in-
terested in real-time collaboration.
Yet even if users were interested, both Raindrop and WAVE
seem too complicated and too major a readjustment in
thinking to have much chance of being widely used. Re-
viewers will probably love them, because reviewers are
among the more experienced users. Other users? Not so
much.
9. The Nexus One Becomes A Geek Tool
Early in January, Google’s Nexus One should be available.
The Nexus One has good (although not completely favor-
able) buzz within the tech community, but whether it will
find a larger market is questionable.
From reports, the Nexus One does not include any fea-
tures that will be compelling to a general audience. More-
over, it will be competing in a saturated phone market, and
Google does not have the reputation of Apple. Nor are
matters helped by the fact that, at first, it will not be sold
through any cellular service, or even through stores. Under
these circumstances, I think it will sell mainly to develop-
ers, and fail to find much of a wider audience.
 What to Expect from Tech
The Larger Picture
This list was not compiled with any stronger bias than the
accidental one of my own interests. Yet, looking at it, I real-
ize that four out of nine involve Google. That observation
suggests a meta-prediction: 2010 will be a crucial year for
Google’s efforts to move beyond being a development
shop and become a major player in both software and
hardware.
Given Google’s past performance, I am pessimistic that
the company can make this move. Yet, at the same time,
Google is the source of so many innovations that sooner
or later it is likely to have a major success, if only on the
infinite monkey theory.
14 Back to Contents What to Expect from Tech, an Internet.com IT Management eBook. © 2010, Internet.com, a division of QuinStreet, Inc.
As for my other predictions, while I expect changes in the
open source community, I do not expect an apocalypse.
The community is diverse enough that, at the same time
that changes are a given, the effect of any single change
will make little difference to the thousands submitting
patches every day.
The angst of the moment may be intense, but in the end,
the community will go on plotting world domination and
reaching various milestones without much fuss – then, ev-
ery now and then, something neither I nor any other ob-
server predicted will roll along.
And if I am wrong about anything? Then I claim the psy-
chic’s privilege of not being held to account for my lack of
accuracy or failure of foresight, and reserve the right to try
again year, with no prejudice from anybody’s long memory
being used against me.
 What to Expect from Tech

The Future of Malware

By Larry Barrett

T
he dawn of a new decade will usher in a new antivirus and IT security vendor Panda Security – warned
batch of complex and insidious malware traps in a blog post. “Several security companies have been
that will prey on users’ obsession with social warning for some time that malware is soon to affect cell
networking sites, the release of Windows 7, and a slew of phones in much the same way as it affects PCs.”
other socially engineered lures, according to leading secu-
rity software vendors. “Well, we hate to rain on their parade, but 2010 will not be
the year of malware for cell phones,” he added.
If 2009 was the the year of living dangerously online, 2010
will be akin to walking down a dark, virtual alleyway late at Security software developers warn that while Windows
night alone without a flashlight, a whistle, or a loaded .357 Vista’s release “hardly caused a ripple” in the malware
Magnum. universe, the arrival of Windows 7 will make waves, pri-
marily as a result of the wide-
According to security re- spread market acceptance
searchers at PandaLabs, the of the new operating system
amount of malware in cir- and the fact that practically
culation in the coming year every new computer comes
will grow “exponentially” as loaded with Windows 7 64-
malware purveyors ratchet bit technology.
up their focus on new trojans,
phishing scams, and fake an- “Criminals will be busy adapt-
tivirus strains designed ex- ing malware to the new envi-
clusively to usurp personal ronment,” Carrons wrote. “It
banking information to fleece may take time, but we expect
unsuspecting Internet users. to see a major shift towards
this platform over the next
Mobile devices, including the two years.”
Apple iPhone and Google’s
Android, will provide another fertile field for exploitation Tripwire, another security software vendor focusing on en-
by cyber crooks looking for a quick score as users infatu- terprise clients, is warning its customers that even though
ated with real-time correspondence via social networking IT budgets promise to hold steady or decrease, more
sites such as Facebook and Twitter let down their guard in money will be wasted by enterprises this year on ineffec-
the name of immediacy. tive compliance efforts.

“Malware creators will continue to be drawn to these types “The devil will be in the details,” Tripwire researchers said
of platforms that are used by millions of people,” Luis Cor- in a statement. “Segregation of duties, poorly document-
rons, technical director at PandaLabs – the research unit of ed and communicated IT polices, and failure to enforce

15 Back to Contents What to Expect from Tech, an Internet.com IT Management eBook. © 2010, Internet.com, a division of QuinStreet, Inc.
 What to Expect from Tech
rules with employees will be just a few ‘little’ things that
will continue to play a huge role in jeopardizing enterprise
security.”
Tripwire also believes that the hype of social networking
threats are real, but overstated. The real issue will be mis-
configured servers, firewalls, and laptops.
Meanwhile, CA is asking its enterprise customers to ex-
pect even more complex security threats in 2010 including
an expected surge in so-called “malvertising” scams and
more attacks targeting the Apple platform.
In its State of the Internet 2009 report, CA security pun-
dits identified faux security software applications, insecure
social networking sites such as Facebook and Twitter, and
viruses that corrupt major search engines and their results
as the top security issues of the past year.
16 Back to Contents What to Expect from Tech, an Internet.com IT Management eBook. © 2010, Internet.com, a division of QuinStreet, Inc.
“Cyber-criminals have made a business out of conducting
attacks on the most popular online destinations because
they promise the highest payoff,” said Don DeBolt, direc-
tor of threat research for CA’s Internet Security Business
Unit.
Along with a slew of unforeseen but guaranteed popular
culture events – for example, the unexpected death of Mi-
chael Jackson or the marital travails of Tiger Woods – In-
ternet users can expect a flurry of malware scams related
to the upcoming World Cup soccer tournament in South
Africa, the Winter Olympics in Vancouver, and a batch of
election-related cons heading into the midterm elections,
security experts said.
“It is a cat-and-mouse game,” Debolt added. “Cyber-crim-
inals are evolving along with the malware community and
are constantly looking for new vulnerabilities to exploit,
from online banking to search index poisoning.”
 What to Expect from Tech

New Trends in Mobile

By Michelle Megna

I
t’s time for industry players to gaze into their crys- Weighing in for 2010 is Antenna Software, which outlined
tal balls and articulate what big developments they 10 key mobile enterprise trends we’ll see over the next
foresee for the future of the wireless sector. 12 months that IT departments should be aware of when
planning their wireless strategy.
In 2009 the mobile industry experienced a watershed year,
as new operating systems including webOS and Android 1. The Big Productivity Squeeze
gained traction in the market, while new alliances were Many companies have realized that mobility allows them
forged – Verizon and Google – and older ones, like Apple to run efficiently while also helping to increase worker pro-
and AT&T, came out of the hon- ductivity and improve customer
eymoon phase. satisfaction at every touch point
in the field. Because of this, ana-
Motorola and Palm, stalwarts that lysts say the mobility market is
had lost the luster of earlier eras, poised for double-digit growth
jumped back in the market with at a time when overall IT spend-
comeback bids based on An- ing is predicted to remain flat
droid and webOS, respectively, over the next 12 to 18 months.
and released several franchise
handsets. The mobile middleware market
is expected to grow from $853.8
Research In Motion began ag- million in 2008 to $1.6 billion in
gressively courting consumers, 2013, at a CAGR of 13.6 percent,
while Apple’s iPhone OS, was according to IDC’s Worldwide
updated, in part, to help the iP- Mobile Middleware 2009-2013
hone become more enterprise- Forecast and 2008 Vendor Shares
friendly. from July 2009.

Many mobile management firms

2. Left to Their Own
scrambled to extend support for
the fragmented OS landscape,
Devices
Forward-looking IT departments
adding support for webOS, the
will stop fretting over personally
iPhone OS and Android.
liable devices and embrace them
as a potential opportunity for improving user satisfaction
Everyone, it seems, opened an app store.
– which will also boost productivity – while cutting costs.
In the long run, many mobile managers will realize it is not
So, as the year draws to a close, let’s look ahead.
feasible to standardize on just one device or operating
system.

17 Back to Contents What to Expect from Tech, an Internet.com IT Management eBook. © 2010, Internet.com, a division of QuinStreet, Inc.
 What to Expect from Tech
3. App Stores Ready for Business
There are thousands of apps in consumer app stores to-
day, but only a fraction are relevant for the enterprise.
Moreover, businesses want to be able to vet and control
their mobile enterprise applications, as well as deploy
them in a highly secure, reliable, and manageable fashion.
Company-branded and controlled app stores will enable
enterprises to do just that, easily accommodating a wide
range of users on multiple and varied devices.
4. Middleware Finally Gets Sexy
Increasing diversity and complexity in the mobile market
will mean middleware will play a more integral role in the
enterprise. IT departments will need mobile applications
that integrate with a variety of systems from legacy back
ends to Web 2.0 social media.
5. The Outlook for Mobility is Cloudy
More businesses will realize the benefits of a SaaS-based
mobile delivery model in 2010 – as it gives them the flex-
ibility to scale their deployment up or down, stay ahead
of the developments and focus on strategic issues rather
than tactical ones.
Almost 40 percent of organizations plan to deploy a SaaS-
based mobile solution in the next 12 to 18 months, ac-
cording to a recent IDC report, “Enterprise Mobility in the
Cloud.”
6. Smaller Windows, Better Visibility
Business intelligence (BI) will become increasingly mobi-
lized and, in turn, mobility will drive better BI. As more
workers use mobile apps, data is accrued in real time to
feed BI engines. Executives will be glued to their mobile
screens for the latest stats on their business.
7. (More) Power to the Customer
Customers in this economy will be more discerning and
demanding than ever. Businesses will have no choice but
to empower customer-facing workers with mobility to dif-
ferentiate on service and create competitive advantage.
18 Back to Contents What to Expect from Tech, an Internet.com IT Management eBook. © 2010, Internet.com, a division of QuinStreet, Inc.
8. Everyone Wants to be Thin and Rich
As B2C surges, expect the Web browser to become the
dominant delivery mechanism for rich mobile apps. Na-
tive mobile apps are not going away anytime soon, but
thin applications built on HTML5 are paving the way for
richer mobile apps with data persistency. Expect HTML5
and multi-media technology such as Adobe Flash to be
supported on at least three mobile browser platforms by
the end of 2010.
9. Got Platform?
Mobility won’t mean a thing if it is not strategic. Compa-
nies are moving beyond tactical pilots and small deploy-
ments to larger, enterprise-wide initiatives for sustainable,
competitive advantage. Underlying mobility platforms will
be central to long-term mobile strategies.
10. The Mobile Pile-On Effect
Tough economic conditions will continue to weed-out the
smaller mobile specialists who struggle with liquidity is-
sues. But filling the void will be the carriers, ISVs, and sys-
tems integrators, who see a huge market opportunity and
may double-down on mobile.
Mobile management firm Visage Mobile also released
its top five predictions for how enterprise mobility will
evolve in 2010 and the impact those trends will have on IT
departments
“This year enterprise smartphone adoption accelerated,
making the leap from a ‘nice to have’ to a ‘must have’ with
more employees using their mobile phone for business
and more enterprises adopting corporate mobility poli-
cies. In 2010 it will become mandatory to have a corporate
mobility policy in place,” Tim Weingarten, CEO of Visage
Mobile, said in a statement.
He goes on to say that lessons learned from this year’s
economic climate will force enterprises to look for new op-
portunities to cut expenses and avoid excess spending,
and the first place they should look is their mobile costs.
 What to Expect from Tech
“With next generation Software as a Service (SaaS) tech-
nologies quickly replacing traditional Telecomm Expense
Management (TEM) consultants,” he said, “businesses will
begin to see immediate ROI from new solutions with a near
zero footprint.”
1. Tiered Mobile Pricing
Wireless carrier mobile data usage pricing models will
adapt in 2010 to usage-based and tiered models. This
will be driven by massive bandwidth consumption on new
smartphones as well as by network-neutrality regulations,
with AT&T leading the charge and other major carriers fol-
lowing close behind.
As mobile data consumption becomes more expensive for
the heaviest consumers, there will be significant ramifica-
tions for corporations. Mobility costs will significantly in-
crease for overages, and mobile policy enforcement will
be critical to avoid huge spikes in mobile spending.
2. Adoption of Corporate-Liable Plans
Will Increase, but with Individual-Liable
Devices
The trend toward consumerization of IT mobility will ac-
celerate and lead to more personal choices for device
type, but will be done in the context of corporate mobility
plans. This will provide a win-win scenario in which the em-
ployee gets to choose his or her device and the corpora-
tion gets the benefits of visibility, manageability, pooled
plans, reduced spending per line, and overall mobile asset
management.
3. Surge in Corporate Adoption of
Employee Smartphones and App Phones
Employee penetration rates will grow rapidly from the av-
erage today of 10 percent to more than 30 percent as these
devices move beyond the executive and sales teams. For
the first time security and manageability of non-BlackBerry
operating systems has become “good enough” and to re-
main competitive and drive employee productivity, these
devices are becoming a must-have in the office.
19 Back to Contents What to Expect from Tech, an Internet.com IT Management eBook. © 2010, Internet.com, a division of QuinStreet, Inc.
Visage Mobile also said it is seeing, within its customer
base, more IT acceptance and employee adoption of both
iPhones and Android devices. It appears that, eventually,
the BlackBerry, iPhones, and Android-powered devices
will share the enterprise market with each having a 30 per-
cent share, according to Visage.
Cloud computing is also becoming more popular among
the firm’s customers with the highest smartphone adoption.
About 40 percent of Visage Mobile customers are focused
on having employees access corporate cloud applications,
for instance, Salesforce.com, with their smartphones, as
opposed to just accessing work-related e-mail.
4. Increase in 3G Mobile Broadband
Adoption in Employee Laptops
With almost all enterprise-class laptop models shipping in
2010 being embedded with 3G connectivity, increasingly
based on Qualcomm’s multi-carrier Gobi chipset, Visage
Mobile sees IT departments increasingly activating the 3G
modules for employees below the executive level.
Today’s low, single-digit penetration of mobile broadband
on laptops within the enterprise will rapidly increase as
tools become available to manage and help eliminate the
massive variable costs that can occur with international
data roaming and data overages.
5. Businesses Move Away from
Traditional TEMs and Adopt Next-
Generation SaaS-Based Applications
Corporations will increasingly turn to SaaS applications to
manage their mobile budgets, set and monitor employee
mobility policies and track device usage and inventory
within their employee base.
Given the fast pace of developments in the mobile sector,
companies simply won’t have time to implement TEM soft-
ware upgrades, and instead, will use SaaS-based models
that can often be deployed within a week.