Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
50%
Zuari plans to raise funds by making a Rights Issue of Compulsory Convertible Debentures,
Zuari BSE SMALLCAP
40%
not exceeding Rs 5 bn and a Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds issue or other similar
30%
securities upto Euro 32 mn, on private placement basis.
20% Valuation
10% Amongst India‘s largest pure play fertilizer manufacturers, Zuari has a strong brand recall,
0% robust distribution network and has planned a well-timed capex to expand capacity, improve
03-Oct-17
-10% 03-Jan-18 03-Apr-18 03-Jul-18 efficiency, productivity and energy saving. Strategic creation of a large retail network to provide
-20% integrated solutions to farmers needs at one place, can be a game changing value enhancer. It
-30% is well-placed to reap benefits of reforms like DBT of fertilizer subsidy, etc. Although the long
-40% term big picture is more attractive, uncertainties have been created in the near term by the
-50% recent devaluation of INR. Zuari has significant imports. Rising prices may have a bearing on
-60% demand of its products amongst farmers; response by GoI, fertilizer industry and the company
Analysts: Vineet Agrawal needs to be seen. In view of this, we have currently valued the stock at a P/E of 10x of FY20E
Tel No: +91-22-49226006; Mobile: +91-9819510575 EPS of Rs 40 and recommend buy on the stock with a target price of Rs 400 (~65% upside) in
E-mail: vineet.agrawal@skpsecurities.com 15 months, subject to future re-rating as clarity emerges.
Categories of nutrients: Sixteen plant nutrients are necessary for plant development. These
are classified into three categories viz. primary (macro) nutrients, secondary nutrients and
micro-nutrients. Application of essential plant nutrients in right proportion, with the use of
correct method and time of application helps in increasing crop production.
Calcium (Ca2+)
Secondary nutrients Magnesium (Mg2+) Needed in small quantity
Sulfur
Primary nutrients: Primary nutrients are Nitrogen (N), Phosphorus (P), Potassium (K),
Ammonium (NH4+), Dihydrogen Phosphate etc. NPK are frequently required in a crop
fertilization programme and are needed in larger quantity by plants. Indian Fertilizer Industry
majorly focuses on primary nutrients.
Secondary nutrients: Calcium (Ca2+), Magnesium (Mg2+) and Sulfur are secondary
nutrients for plants, but are as important as other essential plant nutrients.
Imports have more or less remained stagnated during FY16 & FY17 on account of 100%
neem coating and record imports in 2015, along with poor monsoons that lowered farm-level
consumption, allowing significant inventories to build up throughout the supply chain. 2 mtpa
of Urea is imported from Oman under ‗Urea Off-take Agreement‘. Rest is imported from China
and Iran.
Canalization of Urea: Urea is imported on Government account, through canalizing
agencies viz. Metal and Minerals Trading Corporation of India (MMTC), State Trading
The upcoming Urea units between 2018-21 under ‗Make in India‘ campaign at a glance:
Revival of Government Units (Under ‘Make in India’ Campaign)
Capacity Investment
Location Consortium Commissioning
(mn mtpa) (Rs bn)
Talcher, Odhisha FCIL-GAIL, CIL and RCF 1.27 77.0 2020
Gorakhpur, UP FCIL-IOCL, NTPC 1.30 79.8 2020-21
Sindri, Jharkhand FCIL-SAIL, NFL 1.30 58.2 2020-21
Ramagandam, Telangana FCIL-EIL, NFL 1.12 50.0 2018
Korba, Chhattisgarh FCIL-Through bidding route 1.20 90.0 2020-21
Barauni, West Bengal HFCL-IOCL, NTPC 1.27 65.0 2020-21
Total capacity revival in Urea units under ‘Make in India’ 7.46 420.0
Source: SKP Research
Apart from the above mentioned units some more Urea units (new and revamp) are coming in
the near future which are given below:
Capacity Investment
New Units Players Commissioning
(mn mtpa) (Rs bn)
Thal, Maharashtra RCF 1.27 55.0
Chabahar, Iran RCF-GSPL, Falat– JV 1.27 USD 903 mn
Gadepan, Rajasthan Chambal 1.27 60.0 2019
Total New Units 3.81
Capacity Investment
Revamp Units Players Commissioning
(mn mtpa) (Rs bn)
Goa Zuari Agro 0.20 13.0 2021
Mangaluru, Karnataka MCFL 0.00 3.5 2020
Total Upcoming Urea Units 0.20
Source: SKP Research
mn MT
potassium source used in agriculture,
accounting for about 95% of all potash 2
As per the estimates of ‗Indian Institute of Soil Science‘, about 90 mn hectare land is affected
by various soil related deficiencies and around 41% of the Indian soil is deficit in Sulphur
content leading to stunted plant growth and subsequent lower yields. This creates demand for
fertilizers and opportunities for players like Zuari.
2. Unbalanced nutrient applications: Though India ranks amongst the largest agriculture
economies globally, its crop yields remain marginal. Nutrient application, a major determinant
to crop productivity, has been grossly inadequate and unbalanced, affecting soil health and
DAP &
Others, 17 Urea, 80%
%
Urea, 83%
Year - FY1991-92 Year- FY2014-15
This imbalanced use of fertilizers leads to consistent low yield of all crops across India vis-a-
vis global yield. A comparative overview of various crop yields in India vis-a-vis the China,
Brazil and USA is given below:
Yield (KG) Per Hectre Paddy Wheat Maize
India 3622 3030 2752
China 6749 5048 5998
Brazil 5201 2209 5176
USA 8487 2944 10733
Source: Zuari's Invester Presentation - Dec 2017
3. Increasing use of micro-irrigation provides opportunities for water soluble fertilizers:
Micro-irrigation is frequent application of small quantities of water directly above and below
the soil surface; usually as discrete 54% of India faces high to extreme high water stress
drops, continuous drops or tiny streams
through emitters placed along a water
delivery line.
As the agriculture sector consumes
80% of freshwater in India, micro-
irrigation is often promoted by Central
and State Governments to tackle the
growing water crisis, as the drip and
sprinkler irrigation delivers water to
farms in far less quantities than
conventional gravity flow irrigation. Source: Investor Roadshow Presentation – May 2017 – Coromandel fertilizers
Due to recurring droughts in years 2012, 2015 and 2016, micro-irrigation has become a policy
priority in India. The new catch-phrase in one of the Central Government‘s schemes (Pradhan
Mantri Krishi Sinchai Yojana), is ―Per Drop More Crop‖. Apparently, the shift towards micro-
irrigation is thought to ―save‖ water and boost crop yields.
mn Hectares
4.9
5
growing population, along with
4
3.1
limited agricultural land available in 3
to increase with higher penetration Source: Investor Roadshow Presentation – May 2017 – Coromandel fertilizers
of micro-irrigation in India.
4. Government of India (GoI) aims to double farmers’ income by 2022 – expected to boost
fertilizer demand: The GoI is aiming to double farmer‘s income by 2022 to improve their
standard of living and tackle suicides among them. Agrarian distress manifested from large
number of farmers living below poverty line and unfortunate incidents of suicides can be
addressed by enabling farmers to increase their income. To achieve this, Department of
Agriculture, cooperation and farmers' welfare has constituted an inter-ministerial committee to
examine various dimensions of farmers' income and to recommend an appropriate strategy.
Government schemes to increase agri income: GoI is implementing and
promoting schemes to reduce cost of cultivation in order to realise net positive returns
for farmers. In order to increase production, it is implementing schemes such as
National Food Security Mission (NFSM), National Mission for Oilseed and Oil Palm
(NMOOP), Mission of Integrated Development for Horticulture (MIDH), National
Mission on Agricultural Extension and Technology (NMAET), Rashtriya Krishi Vikas
Yojana (RKVY) and others.
Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana, introduced in 2016 at very low premium which
aims to address agricultural risks and shortcomings in earlier schemes. In order to
ensure all eligible farmers are provided with hassle free and timely credit for
agricultural operations, Government has introduced Kisaan Credit Card scheme
which enables them to purchase agricultural inputs like seeds, fertilisers, pesticides
etc. and draw cash to fulfil their consumption needs.
Further, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has allowed banks to take a lenient view on
rescheduling of loans if a farmer loses 33% or more of his crops. The banks have
been advised to allow maximum period of repayment of up to two years (including
moratorium period of one year) if the crop loss is between 33% and 50%. If the crop
loss is 50% or more, then restructured period for repayment is extended to five years.
In order to provide much-needed price support and de-risk farming, GoI has been
enhancing Minimum Support Prices (MSP) for various crops based on
recommendations of Commission of Agricultural Costs and Prices.
Review of National Policy for Farmers (NPF), 2007: GoI is also reviewing NPF
under the program. A plan of action was prepared by an inter-ministerial committee
set up by the GoI for operationalisation of NPF, 2007. After carefully analysing the
differential between the action points as contained in the NPF and action already
taken by the Government, the committee prepared a plan of action and identified 201
action points, where action was to be taken. Till date, out of 201 action points only
nine action points remain pending.
Installed Capacity
Product Category Location (MTPA)
Urea Goa 399,300
NPK‗A‘ Goa 430,000
NPK ‗B‘ Goa 430,000
Total 1,483,300
Source: The Company; * after amalgamation of ZFCL and ZSFL with Zuari, w.e.f. November 13, 2017
Urea Unit: Zuari has an installed capacity of 1,210 mtpd, commissioned in 1973. Initially, it
was Naphtha based feedstock unit which has been converted to gas based unit. Rationale
behind conversion is given below:
Under NBS-III, pre 1992 Naphtha based plant was not allowed for production beyond
100% capacity utilization. Capacity and Production (MT)
500000 140%
Conversion has led to 450000 117% 118%
107% 120%
improvement in plant 400000 97% 100% 103%
92% 94% 91% 100%
efficiency and increase in 350000
300000
80%
production and margins. 250000 Capacity (MT)
Production (MT)
(Earlier, with Naphtha 200000 60%
CU (%)
based feedstock cost of 150000 40%
ton, which has improved to Source: The Company & SKP Research
Zuari is revamping its Urea capacity by 590 MTPD at an estimated capex of Rs. 13 bn. The
revamp will take the total capacity of Urea to 1,800 MTPD.
Production of DAP and other complex fertilizers: The Company also produces DAP, NPK,
SSP and other complex fertilizers. Zuari group is the fourth largest manufacturer of DAP
having market share of ~16% after IFFCO (~25%), Coromandel International (~20%) and IPL
(~20%).
250000
200000
150000
Production (MT)
50000
0
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Source: The Company & SKP Research
Largest SSP production capacity in Maharashtra: Zuari has the largest SSP production
capacity in Maharashtra having market share of ~3.1% (in Q1FY19).The Company markets
SSP through its own regional sales channel and through sales channel of Paradeep
Phosphate Ltd. (PPL), its joint venture associate. Zuari‘s SSP is suitable for sugarcane,
onion, banana etc. As mentioned earlier, SSP market is very small and fragmented.
Distributing externally sourced agri-inputs: Zuari also sells agri-inputs through its well
established distribution network. It imports and supplies DAP, MOP, SSP and other complex
fertilizers. There are large players in the market who manufacture and/or import DAP. As
mentioned earlier, ~50% consumption of DAP is met through imports.
It sources other agri-inputs like, micro-nutrients, crop protection, chemicals (insecticides,
herbicides and fungicides), seeds, etc. from reputed manufacturers and is known for quality
products in the market.
The insecticides market is dominated by multi-national companies (MNC‘s) and products are
either manufactured by them or they supply the basic ingredients to domestic manufactures
for production of finished products. The seeds and micro-nutrients market is fragmented with
many small manufacturers. Zuari‘s diverse portfolio at a glance:
Nutrients Urea, DAP, MOP, complex fertilizers and SSP Manufactures as well as trades
Specialty Fertilizers SOP and Water Soluble Fertilizers (WSF) Manufactures as well as trades
Joint Ventures and subsidiaries: Zuari has an integrated Phosphatic fertilizer facility as
Paradeep Phosphates Limited (PPL) by way of a 50:50 strategic JV with Office
Chérifien des Phosphates (OCP) Group, Morocco, through a SPV Zuari Maroc
Phosphates (P) Ltd. OCP has access to largest global rock phosphate reserves. GoI
holds 19.55% stake in PPL and the rest is held by Zuari Maroc Phosphates Pvt. Ltd.
PPL manufactures and markets complex Phosphatic fertilisers and intermediary products
like Phosphoric Acid and Sulphuric Acid, crucial in the manufacture of Phosphatic
fertilisers. All the products are marketed under the popular ‗Jai Kisaan-Navratna‘ brand.
PPL‘s range caters to almost all agricultural applications.
Mangalore Fertilizers and Chemicals Ltd Urea DAP and other complex fertilizers Subsidiary India 53%
Paradeep Phosphates Ltd DAP Sulfuric Acid and Phosphoric Acid Joint Venture India 40%
Zuari Maroc Phosphates Pvt Ltd SPV for acquiring stake in PPL Joint Venture 50%
MCA Phosphates PTE Ltd Investment in rock phosphatw assets Joint Venture Singapore 30%
Source: The Company & SKP Research
Gas scenario in Mangaluru: Petronet LNG Limited is South India‘s first LNG-receiving,
regasification and re-loading terminal. Located in Kochi, it has a capacity of 5 MMTPA.
Constructed at a cost of Rs. 4,500 crore, the Kochi LNG terminal was meant to ensure
natural gas supply for domestic and industrial use in South India.
To facilitate this, GAIL envisaged a pipeline from Kochi to Mangaluru and Bengaluru.
Conceived in 2007, the Kerala project had two phases. In the first phase, a 44 km-long
pipeline was laid in Kochi, linking the terminal with local industrial users, including Bharat
Petroleum Corporation Limited. To take the natural gas to domestic consumers, Indian Oil
Corporation (IOC) entered into a pact with Adani Gas Limited.
The second phase of the pipeline was to go through seven districts of Kerala, covering
503 km in that state, besides 312 km in Tamil Nadu and 22 km in Karnataka. GAIL
required 1,250 acres of land to lay pipeline from Kochi to Mangaluru and Bangaluru. Gas
requirement in Mangaluru, alone, is 4 mnscm per day (of which MCFL‘s requirement is 0.9
mnscm per day).
The delay: The project was to be completed in 2013, however, the project faced stiff
resistance from farmers and landowners in Kerala, apparently with backing of politicians.
Protesters demanded that pipeline be relocated from populated areas and taken through
the sea route. They also demanded rehabilitation of dwellers along the pipeline route if the
latter has less than 10 cents of land (100 cents constitute an acre), which was rejected by
GAIL on the grounds that unlike other infrastructure projects, GAIL‘s pipeline work does
not involves evictions. GAIL acquires the RoU (Right of Use) from land owners and/or
farmers. Owners are paid compensation as per the Petroleum and Mineral Pipelines
(Acquisition of Right of User in Land) Act, 1962. Consequently, GAIL had to terminate the
contracts it entered into with construction firms to lay the pipeline.
Furthermore, the state Government affected a steep hike in compensation — increasing
to 10 times the fair value from the existing five times, for land acquired under the RoU at a
distance of 10 metres. This would have retrospective effect, and GAIL would have to pay
at the revised rate.
Thus, the project has been delayed considerably as a result of resistance to acquisition of
land under RoU agreement. The project which would have been completed in 2013, now
has a revised deadline of February 2019.
Amalgamation of wholly owned subsidiaries: Zuari recently amalgamated its
subsidiaries Zuari Fertilizers and Chemicals Ltd (ZFCL), Zuari Agri Sciences Ltd (ZASL)
Decrease in share of subsidy: Complex fertilizers are decontrolled by GoI, the share of
subsidy in realisations had declined over the last five years in NPK/DAP in Zuari, which
has further lead to reduction in working capital requirements.
20
15
10
0
19-10-2012 19-10-2013 19-10-2014 19-10-2015 19-10-2016 19-10-2017
Source: Bloomberg
Ammonia: Ammonia is used for manufacturing Urea as well as complex fertilizers like
DAP. Prices of Ammonia are volatile in nature and were under pressure till Q2FY18
when it reached USD 230 per MT. It started rising again since October 2017 and touched
USD 345 per MT in December 2017 and again went down to USD 255 per MT in May
2018. Ammonia has started rising again and currently priced at USD 310 per MT.
Ammonia Price trend at a glance:
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
03-12-2007 03-12-2008 03-12-2009 03-12-2010 03-12-2011 03-12-2012 03-12-2013 03-12-2014 03-12-2015 03-12-2016 03-12-2017
Source: Bloomberg
2000
1500
1000
500
0
03-12-2007 03-12-2008 03-12-2009 03-12-2010 03-12-2011 03-12-2012 03-12-2013 03-12-2014 03-12-2015 03-12-2016 03-12-2017
Source: Bloomberg
Weakness in raw material prices have reduced the prices of fertilizers internationally and
the Indian fertilizer producers also had to reduce their realisation under the pressure of
GoI, resulting in lower revenues in FY17. Input prices have started rising again coupled
with depreciating Indian Rupee (INR), which has dented Zuari‘s margins in Q4FY18 and
Q1FY19, as the Company has not been able to pass it on to the end users. INR has
depreciated even further in Q2/FY19.
Investment Rationale:
1. India’s largest private manufacturer of complex fertilizers with strong brand recall, robust
distribution network:
One of the most integrated fertilizer manufacturer: Zuari has a diversified product
portfolio which includes Urea, DAP/NPK, plant nutrients, Zypmite (PPL) and other products. It
focuses on DAP/NPK and other complex fertilizers compared to Urea because of higher
pricing flexibility as these are decontrolled fertilizers. The Company also supplements its
production by trading (seeds, pesticides, micro nutrients, and specialty fertilizers) which
contributes to ~34% of total standalone sales and imports key fertilizers and farm nutrients.
This makes Zuari one of the most integrated and largest players in complex fertilizers
segment providing one stop solutions to all farm needs. Integrated manufacturing facilities of
Zuari Group at a glance:
Exhibit: Integrated Manufacturing Facilities
Fourth largest DAP manufacturer: Zuari Group is the fourth largest manufacturer of DAP
having market share of ~16% after IFFCO (~25%), Coromandel International (~20%) and IPL
(~20%). The market share of DAP producing companies can be seen as under:
15%
25%
IFFCO
4%
Coromandel International
Indian Potash Ltd
20% Others
20%
Robust distribution network:The Company has been able to retain its leadership for years
with the help of its robust distribution network comprising of ~8,000 dealers and ~75,000
subdealers nationwide with access to ~23 mn farmers. These dealers have played an
important role in fortifying the foundation of the Company across various markets, helping it
to gain a critical edge over competition.
Maintains strong relationship with farmers through farmer education: Zuari imparts the
required education and customised knowledge to farmers which enhances their ability to take
right and timely decisions. Some of the initiatives taken by the Company are:
Training programs: Zuari adds value to farmers by keeping them updated and
educated by organising crop seminars and farmer training programs throughout its
markets. Various faculties from Agricultural Research Stations, Agri Universities,
and Department of Agriculture etc, conduct these seminars which act as excellent
platforms for farmers to interact in person with agricultural experts. This model
ensures that farmers are provided with the latest information regarding scientific
techniques for crop cultivation and also enabling them to clarify any queries they
may have regarding any technique.
Demonstrations: Demonstrating how to use a fertilizer appropriately is vital, in
ensuring farmers use fertilisers efficiently. Zuari started a demonstration program,
in early 1970s, for farmers in order to promote use of scientific methods and
fertilisers for farming. It teaches farmers how to use soil test reports to judge the
right type of fertilizer to be used in the right quantity at the right time. Soil testing
helps farmers know when to use fertilisers and reap most of it. On observing the
result during harvesting, farmers are encouraged to use appropriate fertilisers.
The Company has long standing tie-ups/agreements with its suppliers for sourcing key raw
materials namely Rock Phosphate, Phosphoric Acid, Ammonia, Potash etc., ensuring timely
production and availability of its products. It has a long term agreement with OCP S.A.
Morocco (which is also a shareholder in PPL) and off-take agreements for up to 75% of
output for sourcing Rock Phosphate and a long term agreement with IMACID for sourcing
Phosphoric Acid. The Company sources Ammonia from Muntajat, SABIC and Potash from
Arab Potash Company, Canpotex, Uralkali etc. and procures LNG from GAIL at the rate of
USD 9 per MMBTU (post gas price pooling mechanism), which is much lower than USD 21
per MMBTU it was procuring in 2016.
Such strategically located plants and long term tie-ups for key raw materials and
trading products with its suppliers not only provides their timely availability and ready
access to the market but also provides an edge over its peers, which in turn helps in
maintaining its market share.
3. Strategic change in product mix and well-timed capex to increase capacity and meet tightened
energy saving norms:
Although the Company has a diversified product portfolio, it has made a strategic change in
product mix with a higher focus on complex fertilisers like NPK compared to Urea, on account
of higher pricing flexibility and better margins.
Urea unit revamp: As mentioned earlier, manufacturing and marketing of Urea is controlled
by GoI. With an aim to reduce subsidy burden, GoI is tightening energy savings norms and
has issued revised energy norms under the new Urea policy for existing 25 gas-based Urea
plants in the Country, a move that is expected to save about Rs. 8 bn in fertiliser subsidy.
Under the policy, the Government has shrunk the delta of pre-set energy norm and actual
Water
Particulars Urea DAP/NPK SNF SSP Solubles ABC Zypmite Total
Source: Ministry of Chemicals & Fertilizers; only the provisions pertaining to Chambal is mentioned.
New Urea Policy for existing gas based Urea manufacturing units (2015):
The policy sets the norms for energy consumption. It throws light on the gains earned by the
Urea units as delta of pre-set energy norm and actual consumption of energy (on Gcal/ton
basis). The existing gas based Urea units is classified in the following three groups:
As evident from the above table, Zuari falls under group III and energy norm set by the
Government, for FY18, was 7.23 Gcal/MT for Zuari’s Goa unit and MCFL’s Mangalore unit.
Both the plants of Zuari consume less energy (6.6 Gcal/MT and 6.7 Gcal/MT for Goa Unit and
MCFL unit respectively) than the above prescribed norms. Thus, Zuari enjoys energy
savings in both its plants.
From FY19 onwards, GoI wants to further tighten the energy norms with the purpose of
reducing the subsidy outgo. It has proposed to decrease the norm to 6.5 G cal/MT from
FY19 onwards, for the companies falling in Group-III. The industry has requested the
GoI to continue old norms for the next three years (providing them ample time to
upgrade their units), which GoI has accepted and extended the timeline till FY20.
Other Government policies - gas price pooling:
From July 1, 2015; there is a ‗gas price pooling‘ mechanism in place in India. Under this
scheme; the price of domestic Natural Gas is averaged or pooled with the cost of imported
LNG to create a uniform rate for fertilizer plants. All fertilizer plants in the country get the
feedstock natural gas to make Urea at this uniform price.
Earlier arrangement: The gas price pooling seeks to change the industry dynamics in Urea
sector by levelling gas costs for all players. Earlier, every Urea unit that needed Natural Gas
was making its own arrangement/contracts individually on varied costs from different
suppliers. This situation was particularly disadvantageous for the plants which had no access
to cheap domestic gas. By pooling domestic gas with imported gas, the delivered gas cost for
all units become uniform for all players who are connected to the natural gas grid.
Implications of this policy: Since price is same for input gas for all plants and the subsidy
provided by the Government is also same (MRP - Rs 5,360/ton); this policy has incentivised
the competition among fertilizers makers. The competition is mainly on energy efficiency and
production volume and not on price of natural gas input.
This policy allows the industry to focus on its core business of increasing Urea production at
healthy energy efficiency. Their problem of dealing with gas supply has been now left to LNG
suppliers and gas pool operator GAIL.
Fertiliser plants consume about 42.25 mmscmd of gas for manufacture of subsidised Urea.
Out of this, 26.50 mmscmd comes from domestic fields and the rest 15.75 mmscmd is
imported LNG.
5. Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) with Adhaar linkage of soil health card, will lead to better
working capital cycle:
With the rollout of DBT for fertilizer subsidies, one of the largest subsidy reforms currently
underway, the massive amount of data being generated is expected to provide a clear picture
of farming activity in the country and help make future planning for the sector more effective.
GoI is keeping subsidy reform in the fertilizer sector low key for the complexities involved
which include improper land records and involvement of a large number of tenant farmers.
Aadhaar linkage with soil health card – will lead to better soil health management: GoI
is also linking Aadhaar card with soil health cards and land records wherever possible, which
is helping policymakers get a better picture of the farming activity in the country. The data
helps in suggesting which crop can be grown where and in what season for optimum
productivity, based on soil health profile. The software system linked to the point of sale
(PoS) machines deployed by the retailers also suggests the best combination of fertilizers
needed. At present, farmers have the choice of going by the system‘s suggestion or make
their own choices. Till January 2018, 85% of the PoS devices have been deployed, 4,482
training sessions have been conducted and 1.7 lakh (approx.) retailers have been sensitised
across the Country.
Once the system functions fully, it will lead to better soil health management, balanced
fertilization and better productivity, besides increasing transparency. Earlier, officials could
only be aware that fertilizer supplies had reached a particular district and not whether they
had reached the farmer. With Aadhaar linkage, policy makers would know if a farmer has got
the plant nutrient. This will also stop any leakage that might be happening in the system.
Functioning of DBT – curbs malpractices: Farmers who purchases fertilizers from the
retailers have to first give details of their Aadhaar card, which essentially will help the
Government to collect data, on purchasing pattern and size of the land of the farmer. This
move has helped curb hoarding of fertilisers by some of the bigger farmers or other industrial
players who use subsidised fertilisers for their manufacturing process.
Details of farmers‘ purchases are recorded in the PoS machines. This detail will subsequently
be mapped with a soil card and provide guidance on the use of fertiliser. This is expected to
improve health of the soil and subsequently help improve productivity and farmer income.
Since every kilogram of fertiliser sold at the retailer's end now has an address, retailers who
used to either help hoarding, sold spurious fertilisers or sold it to industries are shutting
shops. It is expected that the implementation of DBT to provide subsidy directly to farmers will
save the GoI, a minimum of Rs. 500 bn.
The Ministry of Agriculture, GoI is on target to provide soil health cards for all 120 mn farm
holdings by the end of this year. The scheme is progressing well. Cards have been provided
to 100 mn farmers by October 2017, inspite of lack of staff, power supply and internet
connectivity. According to the ministry, use of these cards have led to 8-10% lower
consumption of fertilizers in 2016-17 compared to the year before, while due to balanced use
of nutrients overall crop production went up by up to 12%.
Once the system will be in place Government will rollout phase – II of DBT wherein the
subsidy will be directly transferred to farmers‘ account. Thus, the farmer will make full
payment to the dealers at the point of purchase and Zuari‘s (and also of the industry‘s) wait
for subsidy disbursement from Government will be over, leading to improvement in working
capital requirement.
100
49 47 54 53 53
44 42 41 76 76 76
50 34
62
54
46 42
35
0 26
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E
6. Robust Financials:
Consolidated top-line to grow moderately with a CAGR of ~8.1% during FY18-20E: In
FY18, consolidated revenues of Zuari witnessed a significant increase of 14% to Rs72,647.8
mn vis-à-vis a dip of 16% last year due to better sales volumes of NPK and other complex
fertilizers, though volumes of Urea remained flat. Higher realisations from Urea and other
complex fertilizers also contributed to the growth.
Zuari witnessed robust consolidated sales growth of ~52% during Q1FY19 due to higher
production volumes and realisations. The company produced 300,000 MT of fertilizers vis-à-
vis 242,000 MT corresponding period last year. Though, due to acute shortage of Phosphoric
Acid globally, Zuari witnessed reduction in DAP production. The industry witnessed dip of
39% in DAP production during the quarter. Keeping this in view, the management of Zuari
has strategically shifted its focus from DAP to production of NPK and other complex
fertilizers, which requires lesser amount of Phosporic Acid and fetches higher margins.
Another reason for low DAP sales was massive congestion in Indian ports due to which
imported DAP could not reach in time. This has led to increase in retail DAP prices (by 20%,
as of June 2018, at Rs 1,290 per 50 kg bag). Inspite of this Zuari has gained market share in
many markets.
Going forward, we expect Zuari to grow with a CAGR of ~16.2% during FY18-FY20E.
Standalone manufacturing sales (Rs mn) Value wise mfg contribution (standalone)
40000.0 Complex Fertilizers Urea Complex Fertilizers Urea
100%
35000.0
90%
30000.0 80% 42%
54% 48%
70% 58%
16390.6
50%
20424.9
27409.3
25527.9
17115.9
15000.0 40%
11701.6
10451.7
11376.6
15391.8
15687.8
20% 42%
9066.6
9092.5
9466.9
Revenue from Traded Fertilizer (Standalone) Mfd. vs Traded Fertilizer Sales (Stand)
30000.0 Traded Fertilizers (Rs mn) Growth (%) 60% 120% Other Operating Revenue Traded Revenue Manufacturing Revenue
47%
50%
25000.0 100%
40%
21% 30% 34% 32% 37% 33% 34%
20000.0 19% 80% 40% 43%
20% 50%
60%
15000.0 8% 10% 60%
0%
-30% 0%
10000.0 40%
-31% -10% 68% 67%
66% 63% 66% 60% 57%
25987.7
17852.1
17913.5
19318.7
13129.4
15595.7
22925.7
27740.1
-20% 50%
5000.0 -32% 20% 40%
-30%
0.0 -40% 0%
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E
80000.0 10%
4%
5%
60000.0 0%
-4% 0%
76353.5
78891.6
73407.5
76114.1
63854.2
72647.8
87192.8
98116.9
20000.0
-15%
0.0 -20%
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E
1000.0 0.8%
EBIDTA (Rs mn)
1.0%
PAT Margin (%)
4000.0 3.9%
1682.5
1643.7
1289.9
500.0 0.5%
643.2
887.1
-438.7
-1.0%
-1230.7
6204.2
3560.9
3351.2
2079.8
3002.8
2732.2
4656.6
5351.3
5077.5
1000.0 1.0%
-1000.0
-1.5%
0.0 0.0%
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E -1500.0 -1.6% -2.0%
4. Forex Risk:
The Company imports it‘s raw materials and complex fertilizers and other agri products for
selling to the end consumers. The impact of recent ~12% devaluation of INR may have a
significant impact on business and financial outlook of Zuari, given this import content and lag
period in passing on cost escalation to the farmers, if at all, etc. Till certainty emerges about
the Government, Industry and Company strategy to tackle this situation, this will remain a
cause of concern.
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Aug-13
Dec-13
Aug-14
Dec-14
Aug-15
Dec-15
Aug-16
Dec-16
Aug-17
Dec-17
Aug-18
9 11 13 15 17 EV
Standalone
Net Sales 13468.3 7413.6 81.7% 11176.4 20.5% 46475.7 40765.1 14.0%
TOTAL EXPENDITURE 12787.0 7165.1 78.5% 10566.0 1.8 43057.4 37809.6 13.9%
Raw Material Consumed 3181.3 1348.9 135.8% 5653.9 -43.7% 19691.5 18993.6 3.7%
Purchase of traded goods 6970.5 3855.7 80.8% 2497.9 -100.0% 14108.9 10757.5 31.2%
Employee Expenses 246.3 245.3 0.4% 216.7 13.7% 930.3 917.8 1.4%
Power, Fuel & Water 0.0 0.0 -- 783.7 -100.0% 2619.2 2064.5 26.9%
Other Expenses 2388.9 1715.2 39.3% 587.5 306.6% 1792.4 2048.5 -12.5%
Other Income 157.2 159.7 -1.6% 331.4 -52.6% 812.5 582.6 39.5%
EBT before Exceptional Items -116.8 -384.3 -69.6% -72.2 61.8% 646.8 -154.2 -519.5%
EBT Margin before Excep Items -0.9% -5.2% -- -0.6% -- 1.4% -0.4% --
EBT After Exceptional items -116.8 -384.3 -69.6% -211.6 -44.8% 506.9 -797.5 -163.6%
EBT Margin after Excep Items -0.9% -5.2% -1.9% -- 1.1% -2.0% --
Profit After Tax from Continued Operation -83.3 -274.1 -69.6% -150.1 -44.5% 419.0 -603.6 -169.4%
PAT Margin from Continued Operation -0.6% -3.7% -- -1.3% -- 0.9% -1.5% --
Diluted EPS (Rs) -2.0 -9.5 -79.2% -3.6 -44.5% 10.0 -14.4 -169.5%
Source: Company, SKP research
Consolidated Financials
Exhibit: Income Statement Exhibit: Balance Sheet
Particulars FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Particulars FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E
Total Income 63,854.2 72,647.8 87,192.8 98,116.9 Sha re Ca pi ta l 420.6 420.6 420.6 420.6
Growth (%) -16.1% 13.8% 20.0% 12.5% Res erve & Surpl us 16,288.6 14,342.8 15,229.9 16,912.4
Expenditure 59,197.7 67,296.5 82,115.3 91,912.7 Shareholders Funds 16,709.2 14,763.3 15,650.5 17,333.0
Ma teri a l Cos t 29,227.7 31,294.6 35,749.1 38,265.6 Mi nori ty Interes t 0.00 3900.29 4241.87 4626.25
Pur of Tra ded Goods 15,906.6 20,574.6 27,988.9 32,967.3 Tota l Debt 41,209.0 43,544.1 48,594.0 55,713.5
Empl oyee Cos t 1,605.1 1,631.0 1,831.0 2,060.5 Deferred Ta x (Net) 149.5 133.8 133.8 133.8
Power & Fuel & Othr Exp. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Long Term Li a b 186.5 64.4 77.3 87.0
Other Expens es 12,458.2 13,796.3 16,546.3 18,619.3 Total Liabilities 58,254.2 62,406.0 68,697.4 77,893.5
EBITDA 4,656.6 5,351.3 5,077.5 6,204.2 Goodwi l l on Cons ol i da ti on 346.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Depreci a ti on 776.1 825.3 879.4 851.4 Net Block inc. Capital WIP 19202.1 19444.3 23393.2 31826.9
EBIT 3,880.5 4,526.0 4,198.1 5,352.8 Inves tments 8,776.7 9,224.6 9,224.6 9,224.6
Other Income 761.1 871.4 784.7 784.9 Non-Current Asset 1556.5 1502.1 1802.8 2060.5
Interes t Expens e 4,541.5 4,035.8 4,301.9 4,494.2 Inventori es 7,084.9 10,511.4 12,643.0 14,128.8
Profit Before Tax (PBT) 100.1 1,361.6 681.0 1,643.5 Sundry Debtors 34627.1 34480.8 38364.9 39737.3
Excepti ona l Items 643.30 139.40 0.00 0.00 Ca s h & Ba nk Ba l a nce 722.8 1,686.9 878.7 933.5
Income Ta x 220.6 232.6 149.8 361.6 Other Current As s ets 2628.2 5200.9 6103.5 6868.2
Mi nori ty Interes t 0.00 284.60 341.58 384.38 Loa ns & Adva nces 356.0 209.3 261.6 245.3
Profi t/(Los s ) from As s oci a tes 325.10 584.90 697.54 784.94 Current Li a bi l i ti es & Prov 17136.0 20775.2 24895.6 28052.4
Profit After Tax (PAT) -438.7 1,289.9 887.1 1,682.5 Net Current As s ets 28,282.9 31,314.1 33,356.0 33,860.8
Growth (%) -64.3% 394.0% -31.2% 89.7% Deferred Ta x As s ets 89.72 920.80 920.80 920.80
Diluted EPS -10.4 30.7 21.1 40.0 Total Assets 58,254.2 62,406.0 68,697.4 77,893.5
Note:
The above analysis and data are based on last available prices and not official closing rates. SKP Research is also available on Bloomberg
and Thomson First Call.
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The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst about the subject securities or issues,
which are subject to change without prior notice and does not represent to be an authority on the subject. No part of the compensation
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