Projecting who the Canucks will protect in

the Seattle expansion draft (version 1.0)

By Ryan Biech (/author/ryan-bie… Dec 10, 2018

The  Canuck will  have  a geographical  rival joining the  NHL in 2021, and  it
alread  ha fan in Vancouver  excited. The idea of  driving down the I-5 to
catch a Canuck game in eattle ha port fan in thi town counting down
the da until the league’ 32nd team i read to take the ice.

ut efore that can happen, the unnamed eattle expanion team ha to
aemle a roter, and the will motl do o through an expanion draft. That
mean that the Canuck will loe a plaer to their new rival efore the firt
puck drop.
Lat month, I explored how the Canuck might approach a eattle expanion
draft in 2020 (http://theathletic.com/639815/2018/11/09/taking-meaure-
of-how-the-canuck-might-approach-the-expanion-draft/). At that time,
the uggetion of 2021 entr into the NHL for eattle wa jut a rumour.
Now, it’ a realit and the organization ha to look ahead and tart planning
what to do and who to protect.

It alo allow u the opportunit to pla along and figure out their proce.
An plaer who i an unretricted free agent etween now and Jul 1, 2020,
will e excluded from thi exercie, Alex dler eing the mot notale name,
ut if the do re-ign with the Canuck, then the can e added to their
repected “eligile to e elected” poition lit.

The rule for the expanion draft have een confirmed to e the ame a the
Vega draft (http://www.nhl.com/new/nhl-expanion-draft-rule/c-
281010592) and the are a follow:

Protected lit

* Clu will have two option for plaer the wih to protect in the expanion
draft:

(a) even forward, three defencemen and one goaltender.

() ight kater (forward/defencemen) and one goaltender.

All plaer who have currentl effective and continuing “no movement”
claue at the time of the expanion draft (and who decline to waive uch
claue) mut e protected (and will e counted toward their clu’ applicale
protection limit).
All firt- and econd-ear profeional, a well a all unigned draft choice,
will e exempt from election (and will not e counted toward their clu’
applicale protection limit).

Plaer expoure requirement

All clu mut meet the following minimum requirement regarding plaer
expoed for election in the expanion draft.

One defenceman who i a) under contract in 2021-22 and ) plaed in
40 or more NHL game the prior eaon OR plaed in 70 or more
NHL game in the prior two eaon.
Two forward who are a) under contract in 2021-22 and ) plaed in 40
or more NHL game the prior eaon OR plaed in 70 or more NHL
game in the prior two eaon.
One goaltender who i under contract in 2021-22 or will e a retricted
free agent at the expiration of hi current contract immediatel prior to
2021-22. If the clu elect to make a retricted free agent goaltender
availale in order to meet thi requirement, that goaltender mut have
received hi qualifing offer prior to the umiion of the clu’
protected lit.

Forward
When we explored how the organization might approach the 2020 expanion
draft, determining the forward group to e protected wa prett
traightforward. If the Canuck’ mot promiing oung plaer reach their
potential, it made for an ea election of the firt ix name and a deate
etween veteran like Ja eagle, Antoine Rouel and ven aertchi for the
final pot.
Puhing ack eattle’ arrival a ear, however, mean that lia Petteron
would require protection in 2021 a he would no longer e exempt after
having plaed more than two NHL eaon. On the flip ide, aertchi would
e a pending unretricted free agent prior to the expanion draft. Propect
like Kole Lind, Jonah Gadjovich, Petru Palmu and Luka Jaek would no
longer e exempt a well.

The Canuck will e ale to protect their core of oung forward ut ma end
up expoing a few plaer that could e on the cup of making an impact.
Here’ the full lit of forward that would e eligile to e elected  eattle,
and a plaer with (UFA) at the end of their name will e an unretricted free
agent on Jul 1, 2021:

lia Petteron, o Horvat, rock oeer, Adam Gaudette, Kole Lind,
Luka Jaek, Petru Palmu, Jonah Gadjovich, Antoine Rouel, Loui
rikon, Nikola Goldoin, rendan Gaunce, Jake Virtanen, Jonathan
Dahlen, Zack Macwen, ven aertchi (UFA), Marku Granlund, Ja
eagle, randon utter (UFA), Joh Leivo, Tler Motte, Yan Pavel
Laplante, Reid oucher

There are quite a few plaer on that lit that will e retricted free agent
prior to 2021, o their potential expoure will likel depend a fair it on the
term of their new deal.

For example, Marku Granlund and Joh Leivo are 25 ut are oth pending
retricted free agent. If the ign a two- or three-ear extenion, then the
would e eligile to e elected in the expanion draft. We don’t know how
the deal will go for ome of the fringe plaer, ut we will include them in
thi exercie.

Here are the plaer that I would expect the Canuck to protect from that
group:
 lia Petteron
o Horvat
rock oeer
Adam Gaudette
Nikola Goldoin
Jake Virtanen
eventh pot ( Joh Leivo)

The Leivo pot i far from guaranteed for thoe plaer. If a propect like
Macwen or Dahlen continue on hi upward trend, then the could take
that final pot from a plaer like Leivo, not to mention that Leivo ha onl
een a memer of the Canuck for a week.

Defence
Looking at the Canuck’ defencemen, it’ clear that change will e made in
the near future and Quinn Hughe will e a large part of that.

Lat ear, I concluded that Adam Gaudette would e eligile for the 2020
expanion draft (http://canuckarm.com/2018/03/27/gaudette-dahlen-and-
the-expanion-draft/) ecaue of hi five-game audition to cloe out the
2017-18 campaign. That theor would appl to Hughe if he were to leave
Michigan at the end of their eaon and get ome game with the Canuck in
2018-19.

With that eing aid, it won’t reall matter when ou look at the group of
defenceman in the Canuck organization that are eligile for the expanion
draft. That lit (auming Hughe doe pla thi eaon) i elow:

Quinn Hughe, Olli Juolevi, rik Gudranon (UFA), Jalen Chatfield,
Guillaume rieoi, van Mcnen, en Hutton, Tro techer,
Derrick Pouliot
What wa mentioned aout Granlund and Leivo applie to defencemen like
Hutton, techer and Pouliot. I would e urpried if all three are till with
Vancouver  the end of th3 2020-21 eaon. Otherwie, there are a lot of
quetion mark in the group ut here are the three I would expect the
Canuck to protect:

Quinn Hughe
Olli Juolevi
en Hutton

Hutton na the lat pot here aed on hi pla in the earl part of thi
eaon, ut that pot could certainl e ued on a defenceman acquired
etween now and then.

Goaltender
Currentl, Thatcher Demko i the onl goaltender in the Canuck
organization that would e eligile to e expoed for the expanion draft and
in’t an unretricted free agent  then. Michael DiPietro will onl have two
ear under hi elt while contract for Jaco Marktrom, Richard achman
and Ander Nilon will e done well efore 2021. The onl thing that could
change thi plan would e if the Canuck make a pla for a netminder like
ergei orovk (http://theathletic.com/670079/2018/11/22/wh-the-
deciion-to-chae-ergei-orovk-int-an-open-and-hut-cae-for-the-
canuck/).

With that out of the wa, Vancouver protect:

Thatcher Demko
Going down thi road for 2021 wa a little more imple than it wa for 2020
due to how far awa it i and how the Canuck core will develop  then.
Ovioul, adding Petteron to the protection lit take up a pot ut I’m
prett ure Canuck fan are OK with that.

A it tand, it’ clear that the organization will e ale to protect their current
nucleu of top propect. ut if there an addition etween now and then,
hard deciion will have to e made.

The management group will have to e mart with how and who the add
over the next couple of eaon. Otherwie the rik feeling the impact of the
expanion draft more o than the did for Vega.

(Top photo: Jeff Vinnick/NHLI via Gett Image)

What did you think of this story?

MEH SOLID AWESOME

Ryan Biech (/author/ryan-biech/) is a contributor to The Athletic Vancouver, primarily covering

Canucks prospects, the CBA and the NHL Entry Draft. Ryan also analyzes Canucks prospects and
upcoming draft prospects for Sportsnet 650 and Canucks Army. Follow Ryan on Twitter @ryanbiech
(https://twitter.com/ryanbiech).
(https://twitter.com/ryanbiech)
 30  COMMENTS

Add a comment...

Jim B. 17h ago

Oh Yippie I’m First isn’t that just swell!!!!!!

A lot can happen in the next two years. For instance what happens when / if they sign
a big time goaltender? My guess is Demko gets exposed. So while this is a nice sum-
mation of the current roster it is subject to changes.

Lana L. 17h ago

If he continues to improve, as he has recently, please add Virtanen to your list of pro-
tected forwards!

13

Ryan Biech STAFF 12h ago

@Lana L. Absolutely right - sorry about that Lana

Simon B. 16h ago

Hi Ryan,

I'm not sure the Gaudette rule applies to Quinn Hughes. Hughes only just turned 19.
Can you clarify please?

1
 Ryan Biech STAFF 12h ago

@Simon B. theathletic.com/451790/2018/07/31/th…

He is deemed 20 years old by the CBA if he signs in the new year and thus is not
eligible for slide and would count towards pro seasons according to the expan-
sion rules

James V. 8h ago

Does this apply whether he plays games this season or not?

Ryan Biech STAFF 6h ago

@James V. If he does not play a game, then he doesn't accrue a professional sea-
son and thus wouldn't need to be protected

Michael S. 2h ago

@Ryan Biech So a Michigan Frozen Four berth and the Canucks missing the play-
offs could impact whether Stecher gets protected or not, I suppose.

Kevin B. 16h ago

The article didn’t even mention Virtanen.

 6

Ryan Biech STAFF 12h ago

@Kevin B. My apologies Kevin

Brian H. 14h ago

No virtanen, someone clearly didn’t do their homework.

Tavis S. 13h ago

Where’s VIRTANEN

Ryan Biech STAFF 12h ago

@Tavis S. Mis-step on my part Tavis - accept my apologies

Tavis S. 10h ago

I accept your apologies and wish you the best in the future. Love reading your
content, keep up the good work and don’t be too hard on yourself !

Kevin B. 13h ago

I don't think Seattle is going to get the sweet set up that Vegas did. Teams are not
going to be as frantic to protect players this time. Minnesota was just dumb, and well
Florida usually is. I think teams get their shorts in a twist too much. Past our core of
4-7 players I don't see much danger for the Canucks. The good thing about being
short on good D, the only good thing, is they can go with the 7-3-1 set up. The
Canucks aren't good enough yet to really lose a key piece, so timing of Seattle com-
ing in maybe a year later than ideal, but not bad.

Whoever the GM is at the time - I predict it will not be Benning - should be able to tap
dance around this with relative ease.

Justin P. 13h ago

What? You completely missed Virtanen? Of the list of forwards and also the protect-
ed list!?!?!?!?!! He has to be higher that Leivo!

Doug J. 12h ago

@Justin P. ..... not to mention Goldobin.

Ryan Biech STAFF 12h ago

@Justin P. You are right. Sorry about that Justin

Ryan Biech STAFF 12h ago

Yep - I completely forgot Virtanen. It has been fixed

 2

Steve T. 10h ago

Would a smart GM delay signing Hughes to protect an extra player in the expansion
draft or do they need to keep the player and fans happy and see what they have? I
don't see anyone on the roster that would be worth protecting right now, but things
might be different at the draft.

I like Goldy, but I think he might fall off that list.

Brian L. 9h ago

I fear there will be a few UFAs added to the team from now to the expansion draft.
That will make it difficult to keep some of these young guys coming up. Only takes a
few guys from Utica to pan out to make things very interesting.

Dave B. 9h ago

@Brian L. I agree with you Brian, as long as the current management is in place, I
see them making moves to bring in one of Bobrovsky, Myers, or Karlsson if they
make it to free agency.

Steve B. 8h ago

These projection articles are ridiculous; is there not something else to write about??
Think about it; there will be a Canadian & US President election before this expansion
draft takes place...waste of time for everyone
Kyle J. 7h ago

Pencil Dahlen into that 7th spot please. Dahlen-EP-Boeser is our top line in 2 years.

Ryan Biech STAFF 6h ago

@Kyle J. I can get behind this

Liam O. 2h ago

Canucks should sign Bobrovsky and then expose him at the draft. Gain a couple
years of Bob and lose nothing at the draft

Michael S. 2h ago

@Liam O. Interesting opportunity to offer Bob more money than other teams in
exchange for no movement in years 1 & 2, but not years 3 and/or 4. Basically a
wink wink nudge nudge that he'll get the MAF opportunity in Seattle and still be
making big bucks when he does. Seattle would likely love to have him and will
need to get to the cap floor somehow. By dangling the Bobrovsky bait, the risk of
losing Stecher or Lind or Goldy (whomever) diminishes.
The risk, of course, is that Bob falls off a cliff and the Canucks get saddled with
his salary in years 3 & 4 when Demko is ready for the FT starter role.

2
Steven F. 2h ago

What about the NTCs in Beagles and Little Things’ (and Roussel’s?) contracts?

Ryan Biech STAFF 2h ago

@Steven F. NTC'a don't need to be protected; just NMC, which the Canucks have
none of then

Michael S. 2h ago

Gotta pencil in 2019 free agent signing Erik Karlsson on the backend.

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