PROGNOSIS WORKSHEET

Citation:
Cramer JD, Purkey MR, Smith SS, Schroeder Jr JW. The impact of delayed surgical
drainage of deep neck abscesses in adult and pediatric populations. The
Laryngoscope. 2016.

Are the results of this prognosis study valid?

Was a defined, representative sample of

patients assembled at a common (usually
early) point in the course of their disease?

Study patients enrolled at a uniformly

early time in the disease usually when
disease first becomes manifest.

Yes.

Was patient follow-up sufficiently long

and complete?

Length of follow-up should be long

enough to detect the outcome of interest
Reasons for non follow-up should be
provided along with comparison of the
demographic and clinical characteristics
of the patients who were unavailable and
those in whom follow-up was complete.
 Yes.
Were objective outcome criteria applied in
a “blind” fashion?

A clear definition of all outcomes should

be provided.

Yes.
If subgroups with different prognoses are
identified:
 Was there adjustment for
important prognostic factors?
 Was there validation in an
independent group (‘test set’) of
patients?

A prognostic factor is a patient

characteristic (e.g., age, stage of disease)
that predicts the patient’s eventual
outcome. The study should adjust for Yes.
known prognostic factors in the analysis
so that results are not distorted.

Are the valid results of this prognosis study important?

 How likely are the outcomes over time?

Rate of abscess-specific M&M by timing of

surgery.*P < 0.05.
How precise are the prognostic Multivariate logistic regression was used
estimates? to control for confounding factors
including patient characteristics,
comorbidities, preoperative sepsis,
and degree of preoperative
leukocytosis.

Evidence level 2-3

If you want to calculate a confidence interval around the measure of prognosis:

Clinical Measure Standard Error (SE) Typical Calculation of CI
Proportion (as in the rate If p = 24/60 = 0.4 (or 40%)
of some and n = 60
prognostic event,  p  (1  p ) / n
etc.) where: SE =  0.4  (1  0.4) / 60
where p is proportion = 0.063 (or 6.3%)
the number of patients = n
and n is number of
the proportion of these patients patients 95% CI is 40% ± 1.96 × 6.3%
who experience the event = p or 27.6% to 52.4%
n from your evidence: ___ Your calculation:
p from your evidence: ___ SE: ____________
95% CI: ________

Can you apply this valid, important evidence about prognosis in caring for your
patient?
Do the results apply to our patient?

Is our patient so different from those in N/A.

the study that its results cannot
apply?
Will this evidence make a clinically
important impact on our
conclusions about what to offer or
tell our patient?