Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Variables to be used in analysis where ns is the size of smaller group, k is the ratio of
Outcome variable larger group to smaller group, p1−p2 is the clinical differ-
Mortality will be used as the outcome variable in all the ence in proportions of the outcome, Zβ corresponds to
three experiments. power of 80%, Z1−α/2 corresponds to two-tailed significance
Table 1 Summary of key and auxiliary independent variables for experiments 1, 2 and 3
Experiments 1 and 2 key variables Experiment 3 key variables Auxiliary variables for experiments 1–3
Age (2–59 months) Age (2–59 months) Gender (male/female)
Indrawing (present/absent) Indrawing (present/absent) Cough duration (days)
History of cough (yes/no) History of cough (yes/no) Crackles (present/absent)
Difficulty breathing (present/absent) Difficulty breathing (present/absent) Weight (kg)
Level of consciousness: AVPU (alert/ Level of consciousness: AVPU Pallor (0, +, +++)
verbal response/pain response/ (alert/verbal response/pain response/
unresponsive) unresponsive)
Oxygen ordered (yes/no) Capillary refill (immediate, 1–2 s, 3–6 s, >6 s)
Cyanosis (present/absent) Fever (present/absent)
Inability to drink/breastfeed (yes/no) Diarrhoea (present/absent)
Grunting (present/absent) Convulsions (present/absent)
Respiratory rate (breaths/min) Vomiting (yes/no)
Referral (yes/no)
Length of illness (days)
Number of fits
Thrush (present/absent)
Quinine/artesunate (prescribed/not prescribed)
Weight for age z-score
Wheeze (present/absent)
Comorbidities (malaria and or diarrhoea)
Experiment 3 has more key variables than experiment 2 as it usespatient populations with ‘very severe, severe and non-severe pneumonia’—
as classified in the previous WHO and Kenyan treatment guidelines. Therefore, in addition to variables used to classify severe pneumonia,
other variables used to classify very severe and non-severe pneumonia are considered.
Table 2 Summary of some of pneumonia studies that informed previous WHO guidelines
level (1.96 for α = .05), p̄ corresponds to average of differences would be achieved by different sample sizes.
outcome proportions in two groups. A total sample size of about 4000 would be sufficient to
The value for p̄ is estimated from studies—two of detect a minimum difference of 1.5% (absolute differ-
which formed evidence for earlier WHO indrawing ence, eg, a reduction of mortality from X% to X−1.5%)
pneumonia treatment guidelines. Table 2 shows the in any of these experiments.iii
number of deaths per treatment arm reported in these
studies. Statistical and outcome analysis
For assessment of sample size for indrawing pneumonia Statistical analysis will proceed in the following four steps:
experiments, a weightedii p̄ of 0.041 from these studies is Step 1
used. The ratio r is varied between 1 and 3. Figure 1 was Subset of patients of interest for the experiments will be
generated by fixing power and significance
( ) level at 80% obtained.
and 5%, respectively. Estimates of p̄ 1 − p̄ derived from
WHO studies were substituted in the sample size formula
and data simulated in order to see what detectable
iii
A sample size of at least 4000 would be required for experiment 3 as
this is the minimum sample for experiments 1 and 2 which are nested
ii
Weighting was done using the total sample sizes per experiment. in experiment 3.
iv
For the three experiments, 20 datasets will be multiply imputed using vi
The primary interpretations will consider results of multiple imputa-
chained equations. tions without outcome if results differ from those of MI with outcome—
v
Bayesian models will be used to overcome any bias due to sparsity of as is the standard recommendation to analysis of observational datasets
data as PS subclassification in itself reduces the effective sample size. by Rubin.20
be useful in understanding the external validity of current 12. Hazir T, Fox LM, Nisar YB, et al. Ambulatory short-course high-dose
oral amoxicillin for treatment of severe pneumonia in children: a
treatments—and will provide a platform for doing more randomised equivalency trial. Lancet 2008;371:49–56.
similar analyses for different (combinations of) treat- 13. Addo-Yobo E, Chisaka N, Hassan M, et al. Oral Amoxicillin versus
ments. The results of this analysis will be shared with the injectable penicillin for severe pneumonia in children aged 3 to
59 months: a randomised multicentre equivalency study. Lancet
Kenyan Ministry of Health and will inform discussions on 2004;364:1141–8.
national pneumonia treatment guidelines to which the 14. Addo-Yobo E, Anh DD, El-Sayed HF, et al. Ambulatory short-course
high-dose oral amoxicillin for treatment of severe pneumonia in
research team have made major prior contributions. The children: a randomised equivalency trial. Trop Med Int Health
work will also be submitted for publication. 2011;16:995–1006.
15. IVAC. Pneumonia and Diarrhoea Progress Report 2014. John
Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health 2014.
Contributors LM did an initial draft of this manuscript with the support of RP, EM
16. Onyango D, Kikuvi G, Amukoye E, et al. Risk factors of severe
and ME. Thereafter, all authors edited subsequent versions and approved the final pneumonia among children aged 2-59 months in western Kenya: a
copy. case control study. Pan Afr Med J 2012;13:45.
Funding We are grateful for the funds from the Wellcome Trust (no 097170) that 17. Graham SM, English M, Hazir T, et al. Challenges to improving
case management of childhood pneumonia at health
support ME through a fellowship and additional funds from a Wellcome Trust core
facilities in resource-limited settings. Bull World Health Organ
grant awarded to the KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme (no 092654) that 2008;86:349–55.
supported this work. LM is supported by a Nuffield Department of Medicine Prize 18. Agweyu A, Gathara D, Oliwa J, et al. Oral amoxicillin versus
DPhil Studentship and Clarendon Scholarship (Oxford University). The funders had benzyl penicillin for severe pneumonia among kenyan children: a
no role in drafting or submitting this manuscript. pragmatic randomized controlled noninferiority trial. Clin Infect Dis
2015;60:1216–24.
Competing interests None declared. 19. Stolper E, Van Royen P, Van de Wiel M, et al. Consensus on gut
Ethics approval Kenya Medical Research Institute Scientific and Ethical Review feelings in general practice. BMC Fam Pract 2009;10:66.
Committee. 20. Rubin DB. For Objective Causal Inference. Design Trumps Analysis
2008;2:808–40.
Provenance and peer review Not commissioned; externally peer reviewed. 21. Health Services, Implementation Research and Clinical Excellence
Collaboration. Draft recommendation for management of children
Open Access This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the
with severe febrile illness and impaired circulation without signs of
Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which severely impaired circulation: Guideline Panel Meeting (Internet).2013
permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, http://www.idoc-africa.org/images/documents/guidelines/Panel%
and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is 20recommendation%20on%20fluid%20resuscitation%20I%20final.
properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/ pdf.
licenses/by-nc/4.0/ 22. Health Services, Implementation Research and Clinical Excellence
Collaboration. Draft recommendations for care of umbilical cord
© Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the in newborns: Guidelineguideline Panel Meeting (Internet). 2013
article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise http://www.idoc-africa.org/images/documents/guidelines/Panel%
expressly granted. 20recommendations%20on%20cord%20care%20final.pdf.
23. Health Services, Implementation Research and Clinical Excellence
Collaboration. Draft recommendations for hospital management
of children (less than 5 years) with sickle cell disease: Guideline
References Panel Meeting (Internet) .2013 http://www.idoc-africa.org/images/
1. WHO. Hospital care for children (Internet). 2005 http://apps.who.int/ documents/guidelines/Panel%20recommendations%20on%
iris/bitstream/10665/43206/1/9241546700.pdf. 20sickle%20cell%20anaemia%20final.pdf.
2. WHOHospital care for children (Internet)2013 http://apps.who.int/iris/ 24. Wittes J. Sample size calculations for randomized controlled trials.
bitstream/10665/81170/1/9789241548373_eng.pdf. Epidemiol Rev 2002;24:39–53.
3. Sazawal S, Black R. Pneumonia case management trials group. 25. Austin PC. Assessing balance in measured baseline covariates
Lancet Infect Dis 2003;3:547–56. when using many-to-one matching on the propensity-score.
4. Agweyu A, Kibore M, Digolo L, et al. Prevalence and correlates of Pharmacoepidemiol Drug Saf 2008;17:1218–25.
treatment failure among Kenyan children hospitalised with severe 26. Austin PC. Balance diagnostics for comparing the distribution of
community-acquired pneumonia: a prospective study of the clinical baseline covariates between treatment groups in propensity-score
effectiveness of WHO pneumonia case management guidelines. Trop matched samples. Stat Med 20092009;28:3083–107;28:3083–107.
Med Int Health 2014;19:1310–20. 27. Stuart EA. Matching methods for causal inference: a review and a
5. Mulholland K, Carlin JB, Duke T, et al. The challenges of trials of look forward. Stat Sci 2010;25:1–21.
antibiotics for pneumonia in low-income countries. Lancet Respir 28. Fine JP, Gray RJ. A proportional hazards model for the
Med 2014;2:952–4. subdistribution of a competing risk. J Am Stat Assoc
6. Ayieko P, Ogero M, Makone B, et al. Clinical Information Network 1999;94:496–509.
authors. Characteristics of admissions and variations in the use of 29. Rubin DB. An overview of multiple imputation, 1988.
basic investigations, treatments and outcomes in Kenyan hospitals 30. Rosenbaum PR. Design sensitivity and efficiency in observational
within a new Clinical Information Network. Arch Dis Child 2016;101. studies. J Am Stat Assoc 2010;105:692–702.
7. Agweyu A, Opiyo N, English M. Experience developing national 31. Roderick JAL. Regression with missing X's: a review. Journal of the
evidence-based clinical guidelines for childhood pneumonia in a low- American Statistical Association 1992;87:1227–37.
income setting—making the GRADE? BMC Pediatr 2012;12. 32. Chiba Y. Bias analysis of the instrumental variable estimator as
8. Ayieko P, English M. Case management of childhood pneumonia in an estimator of the average causal effect. Contemp Clin Trials
developing countries. Pediatr Infect Dis J 2007;26:432–40. 2010;31:12–17.
9. Ministry of Health. Basic paediatric protocols: November 2013 33. Lee BK, Lessler J, Stuart EA. Weight trimming and propensity score
Edition (Internet). 2013 http://www.idoc-africa.org/index.php/86- weighting. PLoS One 2011;6:e18174.
clinical-guide/ken-guide/134-basic-paediatric-protocols-november- 34. Baiocchi M, Cheng J, Small DS. Tutorial in biostatistics: instrumental
2013-edition. variable methods for causal inference. Statistics in Medicine
10. Ministry of Health Basic paediatric protocols (Internet). Kenyan 2014;33:2297–340.
Ministry of Health. 2016 https://www.tropicalmedicine.ox.ac.uk/_ 35. Berkley JA, Brent A, Mwangi I, et al. Mortality among Kenyan children
asset/file/basic-paediatric-protocols-2016.pdf. admitted to a rural district hospital on weekends as compared with
11. Atkinson M, Lakhanpaul M, Smyth A, et al. A multicentre randomised weekdays. Pediatrics 2004;114:1737–8.
controlled equivalence trial comparing oral amoxicillin and 36. Shann F, Barker J, Poore P. Chloramphenicol alone versus
intravenous benzyl penicillin for community acquired pneumonia in chloramphenicol plus penicillin for severe pneumonia in children.
children PIVOT Trial. Thorax 2007;61:1102–6. Lancet 1985;2:684–6.