Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 33 (2008) 614–620

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Physics and Chemistry of the Earth

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Regional rainfall frequency analysis for Botswana using L-Moments and radial
basis function network
B.P. Parida *, D.B. Moalafhi
Department of Environmental Science, University of Botswana, P/Bag UB 00704, Gaborone, Botswana

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Available online 3 July 2008 Information on rainfall magnitude at specified recurrence interval is important for agricultural and water
resources planning and management besides particularly for a semi-arid country like Botswana where
the annual rainfall is erratic with large coefficient of variation. This study which was based on long term
Keywords: annual rainfall data from 1961 to 2003 at 11 synoptic stations across Botswana, concluded that rainfall
L-Moments was increasing up to 1981, after which there has been a decline in the annual rainfall pattern. An overall
Neural network downward trend shows that the decrease in the rainfall quantities in the recent years, i.e. after 1981, has
Rainfall quantiles
been very high. Regional analysis showed that all the stations behaved homogeneously and followed a
Regionalisation
generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution. Rainfall quantiles computed with the total data also
showed a decreasing pattern when compared with quantiles estimated using the data series up to
1981. It was found that for specific amounts of rainfall the recurrence interval increased considerably
when the total period data were analysed. Overall it can be said that rainfall quantiles with a 10-year
recurrence interval will decrease by 2–17%, while rainfall quantiles with a 50-year recurrence interval
will decrease by 0–14%.
Ó 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction in area due to water deficiency. The Tropics (Sub-Saharan Africa

There is growing concern around the world about increased
emissions by the industrialised nations of greenhouse gases
(GHG), which will cause increase in the global temperature and
changes of other climatic variables such as rainfall and evaporation
(Raskin and Kemp-Benedict, 2004; Parida et al., 2005). The world
has been witnessing a rise in the number of weather related disas-
ters such as droughts, floods, windstorms, rain storms and heat
waves resulting in several fatalities and economic losses. For exam-
ple, in 2005 the world suffered from huge economic losses totalling
some US$ 204 billion which is nearly double the previous record of
US$112 billions in 1998. It is also predicted that the current rate of
emission of green house gases into the atmosphere, particularly
carbon dioxide and UV-B, could cause a rise in global temperatures
of between 1.5 and 4.5 °C by the year 2030 (Machta, 1972; UNEP,
1989, 2007; Frederick and Major, 1997; IPCC, 2007). These seem-
ingly low figures of temperature increase will be enough to have
major effects on both local and global climate, such as increase
in evaporation rates and decrease of rainfall by about 7% to 11%
per year, and with increases in some places (UNEP, 1989). A war-
mer climate will disrupt natural ecosystems and their water bal-
ances, as a result of which grasslands and deserts would expand
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +267 3552522.
E-mail address: paridab@mopipi.ub.bw (B.P. Parida).
and Central Southern Africa) are generally likely to become drier
(Ngaira, 2007).
In fact, although Sub-Saharan Africa produces GHG less than 4%
of the world’s total emissions, it is already feeling the impacts and
will feel more of its impacts in the coming years. Farming in Africa,
heavily hampered due to dependence on rain-fed irrigation and
poor soils, is likely to be hit further due to reduced water supply
and change in the cropping season. While, nearly a third of the
people in Africa already live in the drought prone areas, it is esti-
mated that climate change will add up to over 80 million people
at risk of hunger by 2080 (Carter, 2007). Even Botswana, which
generally experiences a semi-arid climate with low rainfall
(450 mm per annum) and high evaporation (more than 2000 mm
per annum) and limited fresh water supplies, has of late been
showing many weather related impacts such as decreased and a
very highly variable rainfall triggering droughts, flash floods and
desertification. Typically, between 1965 and 2006 the country
has suffered from several drought and flood related disasters
which have affected 1.5 million people and economic losses of over
US$ 3 million to the country (EM-DAT, 2007). It is in this context
and rainfall being the primary input into any hydrologic system,
that it has become essential to study the rainfall characteristics
of the country through a regional rainfall frequency analysis. This
information could assist in undertaking integrated water resources
planning and management.

1474-7065/$ - see front matter Ó 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.pce.2008.06.011
 B.P. Parida, D.B. Moalafhi / Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 33 (2008) 614–620
For a regional analysis to be successful, it is essential that a
homogeneous region is identified first using the historical data at
several gauged stations and for this identified region, the underly-
ing common distribution that describes the data well and a method
of parameter estimation that produces reliable rainfall quantiles
are identified, such that reliable prediction of rainfall quantities
for specified recurrence intervals can be done. As implied, the
aforesaid rainfall quantiles can then be estimated using an appro-
priate statistical model and an appropriate parameter estimation
technique, provided that the data do not exhibit any persistence.
Yet, small sample sizes, outliers, trend and seasonal behaviour
can bring in non-stationarity to the data which may influence
the choice of the model, hence the results. Though seasonal aspects
can be overcome by considering annual totals; impact of outliers,
small sample size and trend in the data would still remain a con-
cern. It has generally been agreed that the method of regionalisa-
tion with probability weighted moments (PWM) or L-Moments
method of parameter estimation suggested by Hosking and Wallis
(1997), can not only help to overcome the above problems to a
great extent, but can also be able to identify the underlying statis-
tical model. Moreover, the use of a regionalisation technique is
more apt to this study as the precipitation in an area is generally
the resultant of a regional phenomenon than a local one. However,
the local impact, if any, can be captured by combining the result
from regionalisation with the local average rainfall while estimat-
ing the quantiles by an at-site-regional procedure (Cunnane, 1988).
In view of this, an at-site-regional study using annual rainfall data
from 11 synoptic stations fairly well distributed across Botswana
has been undertaken to make reliable quantile estimates at se-
lected recurrence intervals such that impact of the climatic varia-
tions, if any, can be studied. However, to arrive at an appropriate
delineation of a homogeneous region, one of the artificial intelli-
gence techniques viz.: the use of a radial basis function network
(RBFN) which is one form of artificial neural network has been em-
ployed such that the results for the region are meaningful. The aim
of identification of a homogeneous region is not to disintegrate a
larger area into smaller or mosaic of smaller regions but to ascer-
tain or give insight information on transferability of parameters
even for slight regional heterogeneity (Cunnane, 1988). Thus not
only homogeneity tests were proposed for the identified regions
obtained through RBFN but such insight information aided in com-
bining the identified regions into one region for further analysis.
2. Methods
To study the impact of climatic variability, it is essential to iden-
tify and analyze for any sudden changes which might disqualify
time series as coming from one population. This needs an interven-
tion analysis together with a split sample ‘t’-test such that samples
could be segregated into series that belong to a common atmo-
spheric phenomenon, if any.
Secondly, an investigation of whether rainfall stations belong to
homogeneous region was carried out. Probability distributions that
describe rainfall data for each of these regions were then identified.
Parameters of these distributions were then estimated to enable
estimation of rainfall quantiles representative for the homogenous
regions. The RBFN has been employed for identifying the homoge-
nous regions. However, the delineated regions have been tested for
their homogeneity through H-statistics obtained by the L-Mo-
ments procedure. Even the L-Moments procedure has been further
used to identify a common regional distribution and to estimate
reliable quantiles for the region. The estimates for specified recur-
rence interval at specific sites can then be obtained by combining
the regional and the at-site information. The methods for interven-
tion analysis and regionalisation using RBFN and L-Moments have
been discussed below.
615
2.1. Intervention analysis
The possibility of any intervention (man-made or natural) in
specified time series can easily be detected through a Cumulative
Sum (CUSUM) technique. If x1, x2, . . . , xn represent the annual rain-
fall time series over the n years, computed CUSUM value (yi) at any
time i is given by:
Y i ¼ ðxi þ xi1 þ xi2 þ    þ x1 Þ—ni  ðRxi =nÞ ð1Þ
where yi = a CUSUM value at time i; ni = time-scale position of a da-
tum, xi; n = sample size. A plot of the computed CUSUM values
against time is then investigated (graphically) for any suspected
point of intervention (Fig. 3) after which such a suspected point
splits the time series into two samples to be investigated further
using split sample analysis in the manner given below.
If  x2 are means and S21 andS22 are variances for split sam-
x1 and 
ples 1 and 2, respectively with n1 and n2 as their sample sizes such
that n1 + n2 = n, the total sample size, then the T – statistic is given
by
jx2  x1 j
T ¼ qffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi ð2Þ
S n11 þ n12
where S = pooled standard deviation and is computed from Eq. (3)
below:
sffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
ðn1  1ÞS21 þ ðn2  1ÞS22
S¼ ð3Þ
n2
The T statistic is usually tested against the a priori specified crit-
ical value of 1.96 at 5 % significance level.
2.2. Identification of homogeneous regions using radial basis function
network (RBFN)
The radial basis function networks (RBFN), is a variant of
artificial neural networks (ANNs) in which the feed forward
transfer function is replaced by the radial basis function (Azhar
and Watanabe, 2007). The Probabilistic Neural Network (PNN) in
particular, one of the forms of RBFN which are useful in classifica-
tion studies, has been discussed below.
A radial basis function network is typically an artificial neural
network with three layers; an input layer, hidden layer and a linear
output layer which uses the non-linear radial basis functions as
activation functions. Fig. 1 below gives a diagrammatical represen-
tation of the radial basis function network that was used in this
study.
The number of classes of input data equals the number of neu-
rons in layer two (which is the hidden layer), thus there are four (4)
nodes in the hidden layer. An input vector is used as input to all ra-
dial basis functions, each with different parameters. The output of
the network is a linear combination of the outputs from radial ba-
sis functions.
Φ
Φ
Σ
Φ
Φ
Fig. 1. Shows a typical radial basis function network architecture.
616 B.P. Parida, D.B. Moalafhi / Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 33 (2008) 614–620

Kasane This function fk(x) is a sum of small multivariate Gaussian prob-

Pandamatenga ability distributions centred at each training example. Using prob-
ability distributions allows achieving generalization beyond the
Shakawe
provided examples. The index k in fk(x) indicates difference in
Maun
spread between the distributions of the classes.
As the number of the training examples and their Gaussians in-
Francistown
Letlhakane creases, the estimated pdf approaches the true pdf of the training
Gantsi
set. The classification decision is taken according to the inequality:
Selibe-Phikwe
Mahalapye X
Nk
exp½ðx  xki ÞT ðx  xki Þ=ð2r2 Þ
i¼1

Goodhope
Tsabong
N Legend
rainfall stations
0 55 110 220Kilometers
Fig. 2. Location of rain gauge stations across Botswana.
Probabilistic neural network (PNN), a variant of the radial basis
Function (RBF) is considered under the study. PNN uses a soft com-
petitive activation function derived from the Bayesian classifica-
tion theory that synthesizes an estimate of a probability density
function (pdf) by superposition of a number of classifiers, replicas
of a function (often the Gaussian). A classification decision is taken
after calculating the probability density function of each class
using the given training examples. The multi-category classifier
decision is expressed as follows:
Pk fk > pj pj ; for all j ¼ = ¼ k
where pk is the prior probability of occurrence of examples from
class k. fk is the estimated pdf of class k.
The calculation of the pdf is performed with the following algo-
rithm which is an addition of the values of the d-dimensional
Gaussians, evaluated at each training example, and scales the
sum to produce the estimated probability density.
X
Nk
fk ðxÞ ¼ ð1=ð2pÞd=2 rd Þð1=NÞ exp½ðx  xki ÞT ðx  xki Þ=ð2r2 Þ
i¼1
where xki is the d-dimensional ith example from class k.
X
Nj
> exp½ðx  xji ÞT ðx  xji Þ=ð2r2 Þ ð6Þ
i¼1
which is derived using prior probabilities calculated as the relative
frequency of the examples in each class:
pk ¼ Nk =N ð7Þ
where N is the number of all training examples, Nk is the number of
examples in class k.
The PNN is robust in the presence of noise. Though a typical RBF
looks like the conventional three-layer feed forward network
topology, a PNN is fundamentally different in that response is sup-
plied by a competitive output layer. The functioning of a RBF is a
learning to find an optimum surface in a multidimensional space
as opposed to the learning scheme of a feed forward back propaga-
tion network which can be viewed as a stochastic approximation.
The PNN consists of three layers excluding the inputs. These are
the pattern layer, summation layer and the output layer.
2.2.1. Pattern layer
ð4Þ There is one pattern node for each training example. Each pat-
tern node forms a product of the weight vector and the given
example for classification, where the weights entering a node are
from a particular example. After that, the product is passed
through the activation function:
exp½ðxT wki  1Þ=r2  ð8Þ
When an input is presented, this layer computes distances from
the input vector to the training input vectors, and produces a vec-
ð5Þ tor whose elements indicate how close the input is to the training
input. If an input is close to several training vectors of a single
class, it is represented by several elements that are close to 1.

Fig. 3. Typical plots of CUSUM values using rainfall data at (a) Francistown (b) Kasane, (c) Gantsi and (d) Goodhope.
 B.P. Parida, D.B. Moalafhi / Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 33 (2008) 614–620 617

2.2.2. Summation layer analyses. The rain stations are tested for their homogeneity (H)
Each summation node receives the outputs from pattern nodes through a Monte-Carlo simulation exercise. This is established
associated with a given class: either through the use of L-Cv or (L-Cv/L-Kutosis) or L-Sk (L-
Skew/L-Kurtosis) values to represent V in Eq. (18) below. For exam-
X
Nk
exp½xT wki  1=r2  ð9Þ ple, if L-Cv is considered on its own then H can be computed from:
i¼1
H ¼ ðV  lV Þ=rV ð18Þ
This layer sums the contributions for each class of inputs to pro-
where V = weighted (standard deviation) L-Cv, s2, values lV, rV = the
duce as its net output a vector of probabilities.
mean and standard deviation of 500 values of V, i.e. L-Cv (which are
obtained from generating data for 500 regions of N sites having sim-
2.2.3. Output layer
ilar sample size as the original one).
The output nodes are binary neurons that produce the classifi-
Depending on the values of H, i.e. either less than 1, or between
cation decision:
1 and 2, or greater than 2, a region containing a group of stations,
X
Nk X
Nj can be connoted as, ‘acceptably homogeneous’, ‘possibly homoge-
exp½ðxT wki  1Þ=r2  > exp½ðxT wkj  1Þ=r2  ð10Þ neous’, or ‘definitely heterogeneous’.
i¼1 i¼1 Finally, the goodness-of fit measure is computed from:
Here, a complete transfer function on the output of the summa- sDist  t 4 þ b4
tion (hidden) layer picks the maximum of these probabilities, and Z Dist ¼ 4
ð19Þ
r4
produces a 1 for that class and a 0 for the other classes. Thus the
network has classified the input vector into a specific one of the where t 4 = average L-Kurt value computed from the data of the re-
classes because that class had the maximum probability of being gion, b4 = bias in L-Kurt values, t4, computed from the original data,
correct. sDist
4 = average of L-Kurt value computed from simulation of a fitted
distribution, r4 = standard deviation of L-Kurt values obtained from
2.3. Method of L-Moments simulated data.
All distributions whose absolute Z value is less than or close to
If x1, x2, . . . , xN represent annual precipitation values (mm) ob- 1.64 qualify as a possible candidate. Alternatively, if the average of
served at a station ranked in ascending order, then the first four L-Skew and L-Kurtosis values for a group of homogeneous rain sta-
Linear moments (L-Moments) k1, k2 , k3 and k4 are derived using tions is plotted on a L-Skew and L-Kurtosis diagram containing the-
Eqs. (11)–(14) (Maidment, 1993). oretical curves from different distributions, its vertical distance to
the nearest curve suggests the possible candidate.
k1 ¼ E½x ð11Þ
k2 ¼ ð1=2ÞE½xð1:2Þ  xð2:2Þ  ð12Þ 2.3.1. Estimation of rainfall quantiles
k3 ¼ ð1=3ÞE½xð1:3Þ  2xð2:3Þ þ xð3:3Þ  ð13Þ Using the regional parameters for the identified distribution,
k4 ¼ ð1=4ÞE½xð1:4Þ  3xð2:4Þ  3xð3:4Þ  xð4:4Þ  ð14Þ standardised quantiles for the region at specified recurrence inter-
vals (or probabilities of non-exceedence) can be computed which
where k1, k2, k3 and k4 represent the parameters related to location,
are then multiplied by the station specific annual average rainfall
scale, shape and peakedness, respectively. The connotations (1:2)
to obtain the desired rainfall quantiles for the station in question.
and (2:2) in Eq. (12), means the first and second large value, respec-
tively in a sample of size two drawn from the entire data observed
at a station. In a similar manner appropriate connotations can be 3. Results and discussions
used in other equations.
The dimensionless L-Moments are then computed from Eqs. As shown in Fig. 2, 11 synoptic stations spread across Botswana
(15)–(17). (barring the Kgalagadi desert region) with long records, were cho-
L-Coeff: of variationðL  CvÞ; s2 ¼ k2 =k1 ð15Þ sen for this study. Details of their location and the period of obser-
vation have been furnished in Table 1.
L-Coeff: of SkewnessðL-SkÞ; s3 ¼ k3 =k2 ð16Þ
L-Coeff: of KurtosisðL-KuÞ; s4 ¼ k4 =k2 ð17Þ 3.1. Intervention analysis
Using the L-Moment/index flood procedure (Hosking and Wallis
(1997)), discordant sites whose at-site L-Moments are markedly Using Eq. (1), CUSUM values for all the stations were calculated
different from other sites if any, are identified and removed from and plotted against the years. For all the stations, it was found that

Table 1
Details of location of rain gauge stations and rainfall statistics at such stations in Botswana

Name of rain gauge station Location Period of data Rainfall statistics up to the year 1981 Rainfall statistics for the entire period
Latitude Longitude Average (mm) Std. dev. (mm) CV Average (mm) Std. dev. (mm) CV
Mahalapye 23°70 S 26°500 E 1961–2003 453.0 149.9 0.33 434.5 151.8 0.35
Francistown 21°100 S 27°310 E 1961–2003 486.1 151.9 0.31 458.9 158.3 0.34
Gantsi 21°410 S 21°380 E 1961–2003 441.1 178.4 0.40 417.7 159.3 0.38
Goodhope 25°280 S 25°260 E 1968–2003* 532.0 106.4 0.20 484.6 133.3 0.28
Kasane 17°490 S 25°90 E 1961–2003# 653.1 156.7 0.24 588.3 165.0 0.28
Letlhakeng 24°40 S 25°20 E 1962–2001 432.7 124.6 0.29 382.8 130.2 0.34
Maun 18°590 S 23°250 E 1961–2003 507.7 162.3 0.32 433.2 158.5 0.37
Pandamatenga 18°360 S 25°380 E 1962–2001! 584.8 179.7 0.31 543.9 162.8 0.30
Shakakwe 18°230 S 21°250 E 1961–2003 545.1 171.6 0.31 496.9 166.9 0.34
SelebiPhikwe 21°580 S 27°500 E 1973–1998! 494.4 92.2 0.19 406.8 120.1 0.30
Tsabong 26°00 S 22°240 E 1961–2003 318.5 140.7 0.44 296.1 128.4 0.43

Missing data for the years: *1975, #1967; !1993 and ^1992.
618 B.P. Parida, D.B. Moalafhi / Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 33 (2008) 614–620

there was a shift in the rainfall regime after the year 1981 as evi- smaller the distance the greater the probability and the closer
dent from some typical plots shown in Fig. 3 below. the station is to a classifier station. The output probabilities are
In fact, these observations also matched similar findings from a also shown in Table 3 below.
recent study undertaken on the Limpopo basin covering about one- The classifications among the training rainfall signals (classifi-
third of the country and with an extensive coverage of rain gauge ers) are shown in brackets. It was observed that Gantsi and
network, where significant change in the rainfall pattern from the Tsabong are unnecessarily very close to each other even closer than
year 1982 were also observed when basin scale average rainfall any other winning classification and yet they are both part of the
were considered (Parida et al., 2006). This conclusion based on training signal. Since Tsabong lost all possible classification candi-
intervention analysis was corroborated by the study of Holm and dates and is a closer partner to Gantsi, the former was incorporated
Morgan (1985), who based on Botswana’s agricultural statistics be- under classification of Gantsi. The classification resulted in three
tween 1980 and 1985 showed that the country’s cereal production rainfall station regions as shown in Table 4 below.
dropped to less than one-third between 1982 and 1985, compared The rest of the rainfall stations were classified among the train-
to the productions in 1980 and 1981. Since, much of Botswana’s ing classifier stations. Among the training rainfall stations (classifi-
agriculture is rain-fed; it clearly suggested that there has been ers) if two stations have probability of closeness greater than 0.5,
change in the rainfall regime from 1982. In view of these the ob- the station with the least stations classified under it among the
served series up to year 1981 could be considered as the non-inter- two would be incorporated under the other station which has
vened part of the total series. So, rainfall data at each of these won more stations to it. This was the case for Gantsi and Tsabong.
stations were then analysed in two steps, one which considered These stations have a probability of closeness of 0.633 and since
observations up to the year 1981 (say the non-intervened series) Gantsi won two stations against none for Tsabong, Tsabong was
and the other which considered the entire period of observations
(total series). Rainfall statistics for both the series have been com-
puted and tabulated in Table 1. Table 2
It is evident from the rainfall statistics for both the periods that Vector positions and respective distances of the stations
average rainfall at each of these stations have decreased over the
Station Vector positions Vector distances
years suggesting that Botswana in general is in the grip of the cli-
X Y Tsabong Gantsi Francistown Kasane
mate change. Even, the CVs (coefficients of variation) over the
years have mostly increased or at the most remained unchanged, Tsabong 462 220 0 95.6 238.2 546.1
Gantsi 370 246 95.6 0 227.7 596.6
suggesting a more erratic rainfall when compared with the non-
Francistown 453 458 238.2 227.7 0 416.2
intervened series. Kasane 838 616 546.1 596.6 416.2 0
The rainfall series observed up to 1981 at each of the synoptic Mahalapye 412 328 119.0 92.1 136.3 514.2
stations would be subjected to regional frequency analyses using Pandamatenga 474 779 559.1 543.1 321.7 398.8
the method of L-Moments and the quantiles estimated at different Goodhope 501 501 283.7 286.7 64.4 356.1
Shakawe 508 575 358.0 356.8 129.3 332.5
stations using at-site information with regional information would
Maun 484 428 209.2 214.8 43.1 400.8
then be compared with the quantiles obtained in a similar manner Selibephikwe 397 397 188.6 153.4 82.8 492.4
with the entire series to detect any changes. Letlhakane 271 271 197.7 102.1 260.9 663.7

3.2. Delineation of homogeneous regions

For this, long term data at all the stations were used. The spatial
Table 3
influence of the four (4) major rain forming mechanisms and
Probabilities of the vector distances by the classifier vectors
resulting variations in Botswana allowed us to go for an informed
choice while formulating the training rainfall stations viz: Tsabong, Station Training classes
Gantsi, Francistown, and Kasane. These stations were then used to Tsabong Gantsi (class Francistown Kasane
represent four training classes. A 4  43 element input vector of (class 1) 2) (class 3) (class 4)
the rainfall data for the four stations was developed with a single Tsabong N/A 0.634 0.342 0.111
four element target vector of classes 1, 2, 3 and 4 representing Gantsi 0.633 N/A 0.266 0.113
Francistown 0.382 0.400 N/A 0.219
the stations, respectively.
Kasane 0.310 0.284 0.407 N/A
A probabilistic neural network (PNN) was created to classify the Mahalapye 0.294 0.380 (2) 0.257 0.068
vectors properly as according to the targets. A spread value of 1 Pandamatenga 0.193 0.199 0.320 (3) 0.271
was used as a typical distance between the input vectors to design Goodhope 0.029 0.138 0.613 (3) 0.111
the PNN. After the design and training to classify the input vectors Shakawe 0.171 0.172 0.473 (3) 0.184
Maun 0.136 0.133 0.660 (3) 0.071
according to the classes, the network was tested. The network was
Selibephikwe 0.204 0.251 0.466 (3) 0.078
simulated and the vector output converted to indices. When the Letlhakane 0.251 0.485 (2) 0.190 0.075
network was ready after testing, input vectors from the rest of
Figures in the bracket show the classification of the station into a group.
the rainfall stations were created and input into the network to
classify them. The development of different PNN were also re-
peated for every two nearby stations in different classes to deter-
mine the probabilities of their vector distances from the annual
mean of their respective classes they fall in, which aided in delin- Table 4
The delineated rainfall station regions
eating the class boundaries.
The vector matrices obtained after training using the four sta- Rainfall station Station classified
tions and the resulting vector matrices of the resulting classifica- class

tions and with corresponding vector or Euclidean distances are Gantsi Mahalapye, Letlhakane, Tsabong (Group 2)
shown in Table 2 below. Francistown Pandamatenga, Goodhope, Shakawe, Maun, Selibephikwe,
(Group 1)
The vector distances give an indication on which classes the
Kasane –
individual stations falls by an across board comparison. The
 B.P. Parida, D.B. Moalafhi / Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 33 (2008) 614–620 619

incorporated under Gantsi class. Tsabong and Gantsi appear closer
to each other than any partners in the classifications.
Using mean annual rainfall between the individual rainfall sta-
tions but falling in different regions, the boundaries of the regions
could be fixed. Here, the average annual rainfall classes under
which the two stations in question fall was used as a training sig-
20˚0'0"E 25˚0'0"E
N ther into Botswana. However, H-statistics based on L-Moments
Kasane
Sha kawe
Pandamatenga
nal/classifier to determine the probabilities of the stations’ vector
distances by the mean vector position. The map delineating the
rainfall stations into the classes is shown by Fig. 4.
It is interesting to notice from the delineated rainfall regions
that the boundary between the hardveld and the sandveld which
are the areas with better rainfall and soils and areas with poorer
rainfall and soils, respectively are matched by the two main clas-
ses. A smaller area around Kasane is a region on itself and rightly
so due to high rainfall at Kasane which rapidly reduces moving fur-
procedure, were computed to test if the delineated regions were
statistically homogeneous.
3.3. Computation of L-Moments

Maun L-Moments, hence the L-Cv, L-Skew, L-Kurt for all the stations
0˚0'0"S 20˚0'0"
were computed separately using the initial and the total series.
Francistown
These were used to compute the various heterogeneity measures
Gantsi Letlhakane or the H-Statistics, for the two identified regions. Observing that
Selibe Phikwe
the identified regions were perfectly homogeneous for the three
specified criteria for the initial and the total data, an attempt was
Mahalapye made to ascertain the homogeneity if these smaller regions were
grouped together to form a broader region. Results of homogeneity
with the initial and total series for the identified regions and
broader region have been tabulated in Table 5. It can be seen that
Goodhope
5˚0'0"S 25˚0'0"
even after combining the smaller regions to one, the homogeneity
Tsabong
of the stations were maintained even if data for the initial period
Legend and the total period were considered. This means that, rainfall
across Botswana is received through uniform processes rather than
Rainfall station some local phenomenon.
Rainfall regions Z-statistics computed using Eq. (19) with the total series, re-
0 75 150 300 Kilometers National boundary vealed that three distributions, namely the generalised extreme
value (GEV), generalised normal (GN), and Pearson Type III (PT
20˚0'0"E 25˚0'0"E III) were the possible candidates which can describe the observed
Fig. 4. Delineated rainfall station regions using PNN.
data well. These three distributions were flagged of as the plausible

Table 5
Computation of heterogeneity measures

Standardized test Using data for the initial period Using data for the total period
values
Region 1 with 6 Region 2 with 4 Total country as a single region Region 1 with 6 Region 2 with 4 Total country as a single region
stations stations with 11 stations stations stations with 11 stations
L-Cv 0.95 0.28 0.21 0.56 0.12 0.69
L-Cv/L-Skew 1.08 0.28 0.95 1.28 0.16 0.82
L-Skew/L-Kurt 1.15 0.01 1.30 1.75 0.72 1.74

Table 6
Rainfall quantiles computed at the synoptic rain gauge stations for the initial and the total period

Name of rain gauge station Rainfall quantiles (mm) for the initial period Rainfall quantiles (mm) for the total period
T = 10 yr T = 20 yr T = 50 yr T = 10 yr T = 20 yr T = 50 yr
Mahalapye 652 713 781 636 (2.6) 705 (1.1) 784 (+0.4)
Francistown 700 765 838 672 (4.0) 744 (2.7) 828 (1.2)
Gantsi 635 695 760 611 (3.8) 677 (2.6) 754 (0.8)
Goodhope 766 838 917 709 (7.4) 786 (6.2) 874 (4.7)
Kasane 940 1029 1126 861 (8.4) 954 (7.3) 1062 (5.7)
Lethlakane 623 681 746 560 (10.1) 621 (8.8) 691 (7.4)
Maun 731 799 875 634 (13.3) 702 (12.1) 782 (10.6)
Pandamatenga 841 920 1007 797 (5.2) 883 (4.0) 983 (2.4)
Shekakwe 785 858 940 739 (5.9) 819 (4.5) 911 (3.1)
SelibiPhikwe 712 779 852 595 (16.4) 660 (15.3) 734 (13.8)
Tshabong 458 501 549 433 (5.5) 480 (4.2) 534 (2.7)
Average change (%) (7.5) (6.25) (4.72)
Maximum change (%) (16.4) (15.3) (13.8)*
Minimum change (%) (2.6) (1.1) (0.8)

Figures in the brackets () indicate percentage changes; *without the positive value.
620 B.P. Parida, D.B. Moalafhi / Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 33 (2008) 614–620
T (Years) = 4 8 20 55 100
1000 | | | | |
900
Initial period
800
Rainfall Depth (mm)
700
Total period
600
500
400
300
200
100
0 rived through L-Moments (Hosking and Wallis, 1997).
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
Gumbel (y)
Fig. 5. Plot of rainfall depths against recurrence interval T (Gumbel y) considering
the initial and the total period.
distributions when the series for the initial period were consid-
ered. However, for the computation of standardised rainfall quan-
tiles at selected recurrence intervals viz.: 10, 20 and 50 years, the
GEV distribution has been chosen as the underlying distribution
because it produced the least Z-statistics from among the other
plausible distributions listed above, thus indicating that this distri-
bution fitted the data better than others. These standardised quan-
tiles were multiplied by the annual average values at each of the
rain gauge stations to obtain the desired rainfall quantiles at the
selected recurrence intervals as tabulated in Table 6.
A close observation of this table shows that the quantiles using
the total series decreased in general when compared to the quan-
tiles estimated from the initial series. It was however interesting to
note that the average percentile reduction in the rainfall quantiles
deceased with the increase in the recurrence interval. The changes
can be well observed from the plot of regional rainfall curves
drawn separately for the initial and the total period, using respec-
tive regional parameters, at some specified recurrence intervals or
their equivalent Gumbel y values. Another way of visualising the
change can be done from similar plots but using say some known
values of rainfall quantiles to determine the changes in their recur-
rence intervals or Gumbel y values as shown in Fig. 5 below.
From the plot it is evident that say a rainfall magnitude of 694
mm which would be received once in 8 years following the initial
period data, will now receive at a recurrence interval of 15 years
which is close to twice the recurrence interval using the initial
data. This clearly speaks of a marked reduction in the rainfall quan-
tities when a specific recurrence interval is being considered.
4. Conclusions
This study aimed at determining the impact of climate variabil-
ity in Botswana, using the radial basis function network to arrive at
regional identification and the L-Moment method to estimate rain-
fall quantiles at desired recurrence intervals such that changes in
rainfall quantiles could be demonstrated. The study discussed the
general statistics and trend of the rainfall series at each of the syn-
optic stations and the various homogeneity indices obtained from
the analyses to evaluate the transferability of the regionalization
results to each site. It was found from the analyses that the entire
country behaved like a homogeneous region and the data followed
a generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution, suggesting that the
regional GEV parameters could be transferred to the specific sites
with confidence. Although the conclusions arrived through this
study are based on the available data of more than 40 years, they
would be quite reliable due to the efficiency of the methods used.
For example the method of L-Moments on its own can produce
very reliable results with small sample sizes and even with outliers
and the homogeneity derived through the radial basis function net-
work have also been found to satisfy the homogeneity index de-
Using the regional parameters with at-site rainfall averages,
quantiles were estimated at 10, 20, 50 and 100 years recurrence
intervals, separately considering the series of observations up to
1981 and the entire series up to 2003, which included almost equal
number of additional data under the recent conditions. Based on
the results, it can generally be said that climate change in Botswa-
na will have greater impacts on short term than on longer intervals
in that the country could experience 2–17% decrease in rainfall
quantiles at a 10-year recurrence interval compared to 0–14% de-
crease at a 50-year recurrence interval.
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