Tomorrow’s Mobility

Sustainable Technologies for the automotive sector

Week 1 – Session 3 – The road towards a sustainable

energy for all

Sidney Lambert-Lalitte

Introduction

I - The drivers of greenhouse gases emissions

II - Reducing the carbon content of the energy mix

Conclusion

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Introduction
People engage in economic activities that require energy, mostly supplied by carbon-emitting
sources. This lesson discusses if, and how, economic development all around the world without
affecting the climate system can be enabled.

I- The drivers of greenhouse gases emissions

The Kaya equation, named after a Japanese economist, Yoichi Kaya, who developed it in the 1990s,
is a very simple model to assess the factors driving the growth of greenhouse gases emissions.

For Kaya, the evolution of the carbon emissions is the product of 4 factors:
a) the evolution of the carbon content of the energy we consume (CO2 / energy),
b) the energy intensity of our economic activity (generally measured by the amount of energy
consumed per unit of Gross Domestic Product(GDP)),
c) the wealth per person (GDP / capita)
d) and the growth of population.

All UN member countries agreed in Paris to reach a level of “net-zero” emissions as soon as
possible in the second half of the 21st century, to be in line with the objective of limiting the
growth of temperatures at +2°C. Many scenarios exist to explore the future trends compatible with
this goal. A simplified trend in order to limit the rise of temperature to 2°C, would be to collectively
divide our emissions by 3 between today and 2050.

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According to the most recent UN estimates, the global population is going to grow by 30% between
today and 2050. At the same time, assuming that the global GDP per person is going to grow in the
next 35 years as fast as it did in the last 35, this means that the term GDP/capita will grow by
approximately 60% by 2050.

To sum up, this means that, to cut global emissions by 3 in 2050, with 30% more people and a 60%
higher GDP per capita, we need to divide the two other terms of this equation, CO2 over energy or
energy over GDP by more than 6!

In other words, we need to reduce every year by more than 5% the carbon content of the energy
we consume, or reduce the amount of energy needed to produce one unit of GDP.

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II- Reducing the carbon content of the energy mix

Reducing the carbon content of the energy mix

FIGURE: LIFE-CYCLE GREENHOUSE GASES EMISSIONS OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES
ELECTRICITY GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES ELECTRICITY GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES
POWERED BY RENEWABLE RESOURCES POWERED BY NON-RENEWABLE RESOURCES

Source: IPCC (2011), Special Report on Renewable Energy

LIFE-CYCLE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
(in gCO2-eq. / kWh)

Sources and Climate Change Mitigation.

Decarbonizing the energy mix implies shifting towards less carbon-intensive energy sources
(renewables & nuclear), or abating CO2 emitted from fossil sources (with CCS).

The above graph represents the life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions from different sources of
electricity. The bars show the results of a range of studies assessing the carbon content (here
measured in grams of CO2 equivalent) for each kilowatt-hour of electricity produced. Very clearly,
decarbonizing the energy mix implies to shift from our 80% fossil-fueled mix towards low-carbon
sources like hydro, wind, solar or bioenergy. We can see that we could also reduce CO2 emissions
by supplying more of our energy needs with nuclear, or to capture and store the carbon emitted by
fossil fuel sources.

If we take a look at the past. The carbon intensity of the world primary energy supply is the same
today as it was 30 years ago. After a slight decline in the 1990s, it went up after 2000 due to the

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fast paced economic development of several Asian countries, supported by intensive consumption
of coal and oil. Definitely, we are not on the right track and decarbonizing our energy consumption
is a key challenge for the years ahead.

If you look at the energy content of the GDP, which is a good proxy to measure gains in energy
efficiency, the picture is slightly different. On average, the primary energy supply required to
produce one additional unit of GDP has decreased by 1% per year, reflecting improvements in our
industrial processes, but also an expansion of the service sector in the global GDP (which is less
energy intensive in comparison with heavy industries, for example).

Still, we are far from being in line with the requirement of -5% per year decrease of the global
carbon intensity of the GDP, what is expected in a +2°C compatible scenario.

Conclusion
To sum up, let’s remind that greenhouse gases emissions are driven by the growth of population,
their economic activity, but also the energy intensity of the GDP and the carbon intensity of the
energy we consume.

Because population and GDP will probably keep growing in the future, we need to cut the energy
intensity of the GDP and the carbon intensity of the energy mix by 5% per year to cope with the
Paris Agreement long term objective.

Many solutions are possible: more renewables, more nuclear or capture & storage of emissions
from fossil fuels combustion.

But for the time being, we are not on the right track.

This is the challenge we will try to tackle. What are the solutions to shift towards an affordable,
reliable and decarbonized energy mix able to satisfy the needs of a soon-to-be 10 billion people
planet.

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