Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Solar Energy in
Sub-Saharan Africa:
The Challenges
and Opportunities
of Technological
Leapfrogging
By
Joseph Amankwah-Amoah
For decades, Africa was generally perceived as the dumping ground for obsolete technologies. In
recent years, technological leapfrogging, which is associated with the newly industrialized econo-
mies in Asia, has transpired in some key industries. In this article, we present the solar photovoltaic
industry as one such industry and an integrated model of scaling up solar technologies. We identified
five unique models aimed at scaling up solar energy in Africa: state-led, nongovernmental organiza-
tion and other agency–led, emerging-market multinational enterprises–led, Avon, and pay-as-you-go
models. Our analysis focused on four countries in particular (Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa, and Kenya)
and Africa in general. Despite the promising opportunities of this industry, a number of factors such as
high up-front capital costs and limited end-user financing schemes have limited the technological pro-
cess. We conclude by outlining the implications of the findings for theory and practice. © 2014 Wiley
Periodicals, Inc.
Correspondence to: Joseph Amankwah-Amoah, Bristol University, School of Economics, Finance & Management, Social Sciences Complex, 8 Woodland Road,
Clifton, Bristol, BS8 1TN, United Kingdom, 0044 (0) 117 3317936 (phone), Joseph.amankwah-amoah@bristol.ac.uk
Introduction
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Solar Energy in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Challenges and Opportunities of Technological Leapfrogging 17
DOI: 10.1002/tie Thunderbird International Business Review Vol. 57, No. 1 January/February 2015
18 FEATURE ARTICLE
TABLE 1 High-Tech Leapfrog functionalities (Attewell, 1992; Soete, 1985; World Bank,
1998).
Years A burgeoning stream of scholarly works now recog-
Industries 1750–1900 1900–1950 1950–1975 1975–2000 nize that emerging economies do not necessarily repli-
Shipping (steam) 83 cate the traditional technological development path of
advanced countries, but rather skip some stages and even
Shipping (steam
motor) 180 create their own paths to establish competence in new
and growing industries (Gallagher, 2006; Goldemberg,
Rail (passenger) 126
1998; Hobday, 1995; Lee & Lim, 2001; Liu et al., 2011;
Rail (freight) 124
Murphy, 2001; World Bank, 2008; Wu & Mathews, 2012).
Vehicles (private) 96 Despite this recognition, how countries’ environment
Vehicles evolves technologically and leapfrogging have not been
(commercial) 63 fully explored (Binz et al., 2012; Hobday, 1995; Lee &
Aviation (passenger) 60 Lim, 2001; World Bank, 2008). In addition, past studies
Aviation (freight) 60 are still unclear about the conditions that facilitate tech-
Telegram 91 nological leapfrogging and the scaling-up process (Binz
Telephone 99 et al., 2012). In this article, we address this deficiency in
the existing literature by examining the technological
Radio 69
leapfrogging and scaling-up process in Africa’s solar PV
Television 59
industry.
Cable television 50
Personal computers 24
Solar Energy: A Global Focus
Internet use 23
Computed tomo- The technologies in the industry have involved since the
graphic (CT) scan 18 1950s and include PV, concentrating PV, and concen-
Mobile phone 16 trating solar power (CSP) (Nevin, 2012; Wu & Mathews,
2012). We focus the analysis on solar PV power genera-
Data sources: World Bank, 2008; Comin and Hobijn, 2004. tion, which entails the conversion of solar energy or sun-
light directly into electricity rather than the distinctive
of the barriers and accelerated the rate of technological troughs used in concentrated solar power technology
diffusion across the world (James, 2009; World Bank, (direct sunlight) common in the Middle East (McGrath,
2008). In addition, a country’s human capital endowment 2012; Vaughan, 2012). The leading technologies in this
and the economic conditions play a major role in a coun- area include the crystalline silicon, thin film, and organic
try’s ability to leap to the next-generation technology compounds including dye-sensitized solar cells (Wu &
(Comin & Hobijn, 2004; Gallagher, 2006; World Bank, Mathews, 2012). Solar power plant design may include
1998, 2008). This therefore requires government invest- commonly used PV panels or thermal plants to generate
ment in skills and training to help facilitate technological power. Global PV installations increased by 40% to 27.4
diffusion (Binz, Truffer, Li, Shi, & Lu, 2012; Goldemberg, gigawatts (GW) in 2011 and solar cell production rose
1998; World Bank, 2008). above 29.5 GW, up from 23.0 GW in 2010 (Solarbuzz,
A line of research has suggested that rapid technol- 2012). In 2011, around 30 GW of new solar PV capac-
ogy diffusion and successful utilization partly depend on ity accompanied the growth in the industry and thereby
the economic situation of the end user (Attewell, 1992; increased the global total by 74% to around 70 GW (see
Perez-Aleman, 2011). This strand of research takes the Figure 1). In 2011, the global solar PV industry generated
view that diffusion and ability to leapfrog are largely “cost $93 billion in revenues, an increase of 12% year on year
and benefit analysis such that the higher the cost, the (Montgomery, 2012; Solarbuzz, 2012).
slower diffusion will occur” (Attewell, 1992, p. 2). There- In 2011, the global investments in renewable energy
fore, where the initial cost of transferring to the modern reached $260 billion, an increase of 5% over 2010 and
technology is high, consumers in low-income economies a dramatic improvement from the $53.6 billion in 2004,
may be reluctant to switch. Research also suggested that with investments in solar energy outstripping wind and
the public resist the adoption of new technologies due others (KPMG, 2012). Although the top five solar PV
to lack of information about the products and their markets (i.e., Germany, Italy, China, the United States,
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Solar Energy in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Challenges and Opportunities of Technological Leapfrogging 19
FIGURE 1 Solar PV Total World Capacity, 1995–2012 technologies in solar energy such as thin-film PV cell and
the increasing diffusion of those technologies to develop-
ing countries (Walsh, 2008; Wu & Mathews, 2012). These
developments have provided the much needed break-
throughs to exploit the potential of solar energy across
the continent. Indeed, the thin-film PVs have in recent
years moved from the laboratory as young technology
to mass production in the industry (Walsh, 2008). This
technology is associated with low defects, greater flexibil-
ity, and low costs in comparison with the crystalline ones
commonly used in most solar panels (Walsh, 2008). The
emergence of these technologies and their availability to
developing economies means that the cost of solar panels
has declined to an all-time low in recent years relative to
alternatives (Blackburn & Cunningham, 2010).
Data source: REN21 (2012, 2013)
However, the costs are often complicated by numer-
ous tax reliefs, loan guarantees, and subsidies offered
and France) accounted for 74% of global demand in by governments not only in emerging economies such
2011, the market has surged in Africa and is projected to as China and Brazil, but also in advanced economies
become one of the fastest-growing markets (Solarbuzz, including Germany and the United Kingdom (Powers,
2012). In the past few years, China has overtaken its West- 2010; Rosenthal, 2010). In 2010, total investment in
ern counterparts to become the world’s largest manu- Africa’s renewable energy, including solar, increased
facturer of solar panels, with the competition dwindling to 3.6 billion—a record high, largely due to a surge in
as US major players such as Evergreen Solar, BP Solar, countries such as Egypt and Kenya (KPMG, 2012). Across
and SpectraWatt filed for bankruptcy (Bradsher, 2010; the continent, solar systems generally include hospital,
REN21, 2012). household, and business consumptions to reduce the
Over a relatively short period, China has evolved reliance on power grids, which often fail, leading to
from being a “minor player” in the solar power industry major disruptions in cities (Karekezi & Kithyoma, 2002).
to become the “benchmark” for competitiveness, with Globally, around 5% to 6% of solar panels produc-
many of its firms such as Yingli Green Energy, Suntech ing electricity do not feed into a national energy grid
Power, JA Solar, Suntech Power, and Trina Solar seen (Noury, 2011).
as the leading players in the industry (Bradsher, 2010; In the past few years, sales of solar energy devices
REN21, 2012). Although Germany has historically had a such as solar lanterns, attic fans, and outdoor lighting
strong reputation in the domestic solar industry, China have surged largely due to falling prices attributed to
has recently emerged as the world’s largest solar panel overcapacity (Platzer, 2012). The increasing utilization of
maker, with exports to European, North American, and
African markets (Inman, 2012). In 2011, China exported
around 60% of its solar panels and components to the
European Union, generating €21 billion (Inman, 2012).
The Chinese have been able to achieve this partly due to
low labor costs, ability to digest technologies developed in Solar lighting products
the West, huge economies of scale, and government sup-
port in the form of subsidies and preferential treatment. generally offer better low-
The Evolution of the Solar PV Industry income energy, a cost-effec-
in Africa tive and cleaner alternative
For decades, the scorching sun in sub-Saharan Africa
was regarded by many as of little economic value or a to the widely used kerosene.
hindrance to development. In the past few years, this per-
ception has changed fundamentally with the burgeoning
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20 FEATURE ARTICLE
solar energy has become a symbol of Africa’s emerging standards of people in the country. Solar parks are like
economies but, more importantly, help to provide the industrial development zones with a range of incentives
enabling platform for poverty alleviation and economic such as government-underwritten labor costs, subsidized
development. Unlike many industries that have lost their land purchase, and special tax rates to attract local and
competitive edge and seen remarkable decline such foreign investors (Nevin, 2012). In these parks, solar
as textiles and manufacturing, Africa’s solar sector has plants are built in clusters, sharing common transmission
seen a remarkable evolution to becoming an engine for and infrastructure, which allows economies of scale to be
economic development in the twenty-first century. For achieved (SA Government News Agency, 2010).
decades, many African cities and villages relied largely on Global solar panel makers, investors, and developers
environmentally unfriendly products such as kerosene see South Africa as a gateway to the African market. In
lamps to power their homes (Coster, 2011). Indeed, Afri- this respect, the region’s largest economy has attracted
cans spend around $10.5 billion a year on kerosene to numerous Western and Chinese investors who see the
provide lighting for their off-grid businesses and homes market as offering the best opportunity to establish a
(ITF, 2011). Solar lighting products generally offer better foothold and building capabilities for further expansion
low-income energy, a cost-effective and cleaner alterna- in Africa (Edkins, Marquard, & Winkler, 2010b). For
tive to the widely used kerosene. instance, Hanwha Solar One and Suntech Power recently
announced plans to build large solar farms in addition to
Comparative Solar Energy Development projects to develop solar panels to connect the 12.5 mil-
Although South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana, and Kenya have lion people currently not connected to the grid (Wang,
replicated their Asian counterparts in promoting solar 2012).
energy, they appear to lag behind. In the following sec-
tions, we take each country in turn and describe their Nigeria
approaches toward the industry. Nigeria is one of the leading oil producers in the world.
Historically, this has not encouraged politicians to
South Africa devote their limited resources toward alternative sources
In the mid-1990s in the immediate post-apartheid era, of energy. Despite over five decades passing since gain-
there was an oversupply of electrical power, and therefore ing independence and a population of around 167 mil-
there was little sense of urgency for the government to lion, the country continues to struggle to generate 5,000
diversify the sources of supply (Nevin, 2005). By 2005, the MW of electricity from the dilapidated dams in contrast
growing economy, in tandem with a burgeoning middle with South Africa’s 40,000 MW per day (Oche, 2012).
class, increased demand. This meant that capacity peaked This is particularly important given that the Nigeria
around 40,000 megawatts (MW) per day, far higher than Atomic Energy Commission recently indicated the oil
the 35,000 MW provided by the sole energy provider, and gas deposits will be depleted in the next 25 to 50
Eskom (Nevin, 2005; Oche, 2012). The shortages of years and there is, therefore, a need to diversify sources
the past influenced the government’s policy to diversify of energy such as solar and wind to help meet future
the sources of energy to meet the needs of industry and demands (see Emmanuel, 2012). Chronic acute power
homes. Around 90% of electricity generation comes from shortages characterized by high levels of corruption and
coal-fired power stations (Edkins, Marquard, & Winkler, mismanagement have stifled the development of new
2010a; Sharife, 2008). In a relatively short period since plants and alternative sources of energy (Adenikinju,
the end of apartheid, the country has emerged as the 2003; Oche, 2012). Indeed, between 1999 and 2007, an
largest solar market in Africa and one of the leading desti- estimated $16 billion bid to refurbish the ailing power
nations for investment in solar energy, panel installations, sector was squandered through corruption, awards of
and building of new solar plants. dubious contracts, and opaque bureaucracy (Oche,
South Africa’s recently proposed solar park in the 2012). The country currently has an energy deficit of
Northern Cape Province combines both the PV and CSP 23,000 megawatts with an estimated cost of around
technologies. The park is expected to create around $1.3 billion a year to the economy. The power problem
12,300 construction jobs and 3,000 in technical areas is severe such that some studies have indicated that
such as operations and maintenance (Nevin, 2012). The several working hours are lost due to power outages
plant is the brainchild of the state power utility Eskom, leading to low productivity and thereby harming the
the government, and the Clinton Climate Change Ini- competitiveness of manufacturing firms in the country
tiative to bring technology to help improve the living (Adenikinju, 2003).
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Solar Energy in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Challenges and Opportunities of Technological Leapfrogging 21
Nigeria is no exception. Indeed, over the “past four 2012). However, limited accesses to modern technologies
decades, the gap between energy supply and demand in in the industry and imports of subsidized solar panels
Africa” has actually widened in sharp contrast to other from Europe and China have affected the competitive-
developing countries where the gap has actually narrowed ness of domestic solar panel manufacturing. Despite
(United Nations Industrial Development Organization government commitment, local firms lacked the techno-
[UNIDO], 2009, p. 7). In spite of the rapid economic logical expertise required to develop and manufacture
growth in the past few decades, depleting fossil fuels, solar equipment such as panels and lanterns on a large
unreliable sources of energy, and continuous blackouts scale.
pose major challenges to Africa’s development and its
ability to compete with the rising powers of Asia and Latin Ghana
America (see United Nations Economic Commission for Like the rest of sub-Saharan Africa, Ghana is well
Africa [UNECA], 2007). In light of these developments, endowed with an abundance of sunshine. The country
renewable energy has emerged at the forefront in the receives sunshine duration of 1,800 hours to 3,000 hours
government’s policy to bridge the gap between demand per annum making it a friendly environment for solar
and supply and to help meet the energy challenges faced energy to flourish (Ghana Energy Commission, 2009).
by the country. Nigeria’s solar panel industry is largely Since 2000, various governments of different political
sustained by a private-public partnership program and colors have adopted numerous policies toward renewable
investments. energy sources including special tax regimes, subsidies
In 2012, the Korean firm HQMC Korea Company Ltd for investors and feed-in tariffs (i.e., where the govern-
announced a plan to invest $30 billion to build 10,000 ment guarantees the investors a set price for power sold
megawatt solar photophobic panel plants and other to the national grid (“Thou Orb Aloft Full-Dazzling,”
solar thermal technology in the country over 10 years 2011). An important feature of the evolution of the
(Williams, 2012). This is partly the fruit of the Nigerian industry was exemplified in 2012 when Blue Energy, a
Investment Promotion Commission’s drive to attract for- UK-based renewable energy firm, announced a $400 mil-
eign investors into renewable power projects. The project lion project to build a 155-MW solar PV plant to be opera-
is expected to require 83,999.99 hectares of land and tional by 2015 (McGrath, 2012). The Nzema project, as it
create around 10,000 jobs (Williams, 2012). The Korean is known, seeks to power around 100,000 homes as part
firm brings with it expertise from the solar sector and of the government’s effort under Ghana’s Renewable
plant developments. In a similar vein and in the same Energy Act to grant premium, feed-in tariffs for 20 years
year, construction began on a project for 30 megawatts of
solar-powered electricity to help address the inadequate
power supply in Katsina State (Mamah, 2012). The proj-
ect is supported by the German Energy Commission.
Accordingly, these developments are part of an attempt
to address the power shortages. Despite the growth of solar
In 2011, a turning point was reached when the
National Agency for Science and Engineering Infrastruc- power, around 92% of
ture (NASENI) received the backing of the federal gov-
ernment to start a rare project of the production of solar solar-electrified households
panels in the Niger Delta region aimed at creating jobs
and ensuring efficient utilization of local engineering in Ghana use solar lighting
and technical expertise in the area (Abdulhamid, 2011;
NASENI, 2012). This is expected to make the country in tandem with the tradi-
self-sustainable in producing 25 MW worth of solar panels
annually for the domestic and export markets as well as tional kerosene lanterns to
discouraging their importation (see Abdulhamid, 2011).
This project is in addition to the other manufacturing address all their lighting
plant—Karshi Solar Panel Plant, Abuja—which produces
a 7.5-MW solar panel for export and is one of very few requirements.
projects in Africa with others located in countries such as
South Africa and Senegal (Abdulhamid, 2011; NASENI,
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22 FEATURE ARTICLE
and to help boost renewable energy capacity from 1% in Consequently, today most of the sales in the country are
2012 to 10% by 2020 (McGrath, 2012; Vaughan, 2012). accounted for by the private sector. Recent estimates
The project is expected to create more than 700 jobs indicate that there are between 200,000 and 350,000
in the country with spin-off effects on industries such as solar PV home systems in use in the country (Disenyana,
construction and education. The Ghanaian case provides 2009; Kenya Ministry of Energy, 2004). The commitment
some evidence that with stronger government incentives toward renewable energy is rooted in solid government
and policy framework, foreign investors are more likely to policy toward creating an environment to attract not
be attracted to the sector. only foreign investors but also to foster and stimulate
An economic growth rate of around 14% in 2011 local entrepreneurship. One of the government policies
was largely attributed to the discovery of oil. This has toward technological diffusion is duty-free importation
provided the much-needed resources to help diversify the of renewable energy hardware and building the capac-
economy away from the overdependency on hydroelec- ity of local firms for the domestic and export markets by
tricity toward renewables such as solar and wind. Despite 2024 (Disenyana, 2009; Kenya Ministry of Energy, 2004).
the growth of solar power, around 92% of solar-electrified Today, it has one of the largest private sector–led PV mar-
households in Ghana use solar lighting in tandem with kets in East Africa and a major player in PV solar home
the traditional kerosene lanterns to address all their light- system sales in Africa (Disenyana, 2009; Hankins, 2011).
ing requirements (Obeng, 2007). It’s therefore essential As illustrated in Table 2, compared with Kenya and
to scale up solar in the country. In 2007, the Economic South Africa, Ghana’s attraction of foreign investors has
Community of West African States (ECOWAS) confer- been driven largely by government supports with little
ence on peace and security in Ouagadougou adopted private involvement. In terms of number of installations,
the Ouagadougou Declaration. The declaration laid South Africa has made major progress, with around
the foundation for the establishment of the ECOWAS 150,000 installed PV systems, and Kenya between 200,000
Regional Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy Effi- and 350,000. To date, the two countries have the high-
ciency (ECREEE) in 2009 with support from the Spanish est documented installed capacities of solar PV systems.
Agency for International Development Cooperation, Indeed, Kenya is regarded as one of the countries in
the Austrian Development Cooperation and the United the world with the highest rates of solar panel systems
Nations Industrial Development Organization (ECREEE, installed per capita, and uptake of solar panels is surging
2010). The program seeks to invest in renewable energy ahead of connections to the traditional electrical grid
projects such as solar as a means to reduce poverty and (Eveleens, 2011). However, Ghana and Nigeria lagged
address climate issues. These facilities are available to behind Kenya and South Africa but are certainly among
communities in Ghana and Nigeria, which are leading the growing number of African countries, including
members in the organization. Tanzania, that have devised strategies and incentives to
attract foreign investors in the renewable energy sector.
Kenya The optimism for the nascent solar industry has been but-
Kenya is one of the few countries in Africa that has been tressed by the numerous national and regional initiatives
relatively successful in the solar PV business focused on aimed at unlocking the potentials of this industry.
small home and commercial systems “to the exclusion of However, they lack comprehensive initiatives aimed
larger commercial or grid-connected systems (large-scale at equipping manufacturing firms to gain technological
system, > 50 MW), which has led to an annual PV market capabilities rather than relying mainly on imports. Of the
of 1.5 MW dominated by small products” (Hankins, 2011). four countries, the vast majority of African solar panel
The country is noted for its strong business (unsubsidized) manufacturers are located in South Africa, with play-
market, where domestic users choose low power (10–20 ers such as Micro Care, MLT Drives, Rentech, Setsolar,
W) entry-level modules (Solarbuzz, 2012). In the 1980s, and Solairedirect Technologies. In this direction, Kenya
the declining prices of PV systems encouraged many mul- is among a few countries on the continent that offer
tilateral organizations and donor aid programs to fund attractive tax incentives to manufacturers of renewable
PV-powered projects in Kenya and other African countries energy technologies to help domestic capacity building
(see Duke, Jacobson, & Kammen, 2002). This was largely (Disenyana, 2009). This is in line with energy strategies
driven by the high up-front cost for poor households and devised elsewhere such as China, the United States,
lack of government support to purchase the system. and Spain to facilitate solar development; offering such
By 1990, Kenyan household consumption accounted tax incentives is seen to attract private investors (Chan,
for around 40% of all PV solar sales (Duke et al., 2002). 2012). This is predicated on the fact that technology
Thunderbird International Business Review Vol. 57, No. 1 January/February 2015 DOI: 10.1002/tie
TABLE 2 Summary of Solar PV Market in Africa
Countries South Africa Nigeria Ghana Kenya
DOI: 10.1002/tie
PV capacity* 21 GWh < 1 MWp 0.55 MWp 7.05 MWp
Solar sys- • 150,000 installations Renewable energy targets of 16 GW 4,500 solar systems in over 89 communities • Between 200,000 and 350,000 solar
tems installed • Installed capacities of solar PV sys- by 2015; 1.938 GW total installed PV home systems
tems around 11,000 kWp renewable electricity capacity, 2007 • Capacities of 4 MW and produce
9 GWh
Key targets • Generate 14% electricity from Solar • 18% of electricity production by • Boost renewable energy capacity from 1% • Capacity building of local firms for
PV by 2050 renewables 2025 and 20% by 2030 in 2012 to 10% by 2020 domestic and export market by 2024
• Develop 8,400 MW of solar PV • Renewables will account for 7.0% • Home solar systems are projected to
energy by 2030 of electricity by 2025 generate 22 GWh annually by 2020
Some key • Solar Energy Park in the Northern • HQMC Korea’s investment project • Off-grid solar projects to electrify 24 rural • China Jiangxi Corporation for Inter-
projects— Cape Province combines both the • The Bishop Kodji project was communities supported by the Spanish national Economic & Technical Co,
Solar Flag- PV and CSP technologies run by financed through $272 million from Government and the Danish International Ltd. to build 50-MW solar power proj-
ships Pro- WBHO-Building Energy Ltd the Rural Electrification Fund Development Agency. ect in Kenya
gramme • Contract with JinkoSolar Holding Co. • Renewable projects in East Mamprusi dis-
Ltd to deliver 81 MW of PV modules trict and Tenzu
to WBHO-Building Energy Ltd
Incentives • Renewable Energy Program to • Feed-in tariffs for renewables to • Institutional support for large-scale produc- • Government policy framework: Pri-
to promote install around 8 GW of PV power support off-grid power generation tion such as government tax incentives for vate-public partnership for additional
renewable generations by 2030 • NGOs funding production and investments such as feed-in power generation
energy • Government incentives such as • Fiscal incentives such as tax cred- tariffs • Value-added tax on solar panels was
renewable energy such as tax credit, its and energy loan portfolio to sup- • The Renewable Energy Law 2011 targets removed in 2007
feed-in tariffs, capital subsidies and port investments the installation of 15,000 solar systems in • Feed-in tariff and mandate the use of
grants for power generation • Economic Community of West rural areas by 2013 solar power in new-build homes
African States’ (ECOWAS) • NGOs funding-
ECREEE program • ECOWAS’ ECREEE program
Barriers • High up-front capital costs of solar PV systems and inadequate end-user financing schemes
to scaling • Subsidized solar panels from China, the United States, and European countries such as Germany, Spain, and Italy
up: Simi- • Lack of precision and long payback period for solar panels and return on investment
larities and • Domestic production faces intense • Corruption, mismanagement, and • Limited access to and slow adoption of • Low R&D intensity and tax incen-
differences competition from imports largely white elephant projects solar technology tives to manufacturers of renew-
from China • Inadequate public and policymak- • Absence of clear regulatory framework able energy technologies to create
• Wage increases and skill shortages ers’ awareness of the benefits of • Inadequate public and policymakers’ domestic jobs
• Obstacles to overcome include resis- solar energy awareness to the benefits of solar energy
tance from coal producers • Limited ability to absorb imported • Limited attempts to leverage the import
technologies technologies
• Lack of strong policy frameworks to • Under-developed solar panel manufacturing
protect the foreign investors sector
Solar Energy in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Challenges and Opportunities of Technological Leapfrogging
leapfrogging largely depends on the country’s ability to delegated by governments to NGOs and aid agencies such
attract investors as well as create the environment that as the World Bank, United Nations, and Global Environ-
encourages the adoption of solar power as a better alter- ment Facility (Hankins, 2011). From the four countries,
native for consumers, businesses, and entrepreneurs. South Africa and Kenya have been championed largely
As demonstrated in Table 3, countries such as Nigeria by the private sector and the coverage of PV in the coun-
are among a growing number of countries in Africa and tries, while Ghana and Nigeria have recently adopted
have employed state capital to start state-owned solar firms policies in this direction (see Table 2). For instance, the
to allow local manufacturing facilities to develop. Ubbink Lighting Africa program began in 2006 with a Global
East Africa is a small-scale module manufacturing firm that Environment Facility grant as a joint initiative of the
has emerged in the PV cell and module business across International Finance Corporation and World Bank with
the continent that facilitates collaboration between local the aim of helping to ensure utilization of solar energy.
and foreign companies for domestic manufacturing (see The program that has been piloted in Kenya and Ghana
Table 3). The growing government support for these small- seeks to mobilize the private sector to connect isolated
scale module manufacturing firms provides only a limited communities to give power to 250 million people by 2030
window of opportunity for them to gain a foothold in the to enhance economic development (ITF, 2011). The pro-
market given growing competition from Chinese, South gram seeks to help off-grid communities to gain access
Korean, and Taiwanese firms in the industry (Barker, to light. In 2010, over 134,000 portable solar lamps were
2012). sold across the continent providing more than 672,000
people with lighting (ITF, 2011, p. 18). The program
Models for Scaling Up Solar Energy helps to address gaps in the market, where investors are
reluctant to provide finance to producers and manufac-
Having set out key features of policies in the four coun- turers to introduce off-grid power-generation products. It
tries’ part of the state-led model, this section examines also offers market information to financial institutions to
the distinctive models that have emerged for scaling up in alert them to growth potentials of this emerging sector.
this growing industry: NGO and aid agency–led, EMMNE- A number of multinationals, as part of their corpo-
led, Avon, and pay-as-you-go solar models. These models rate social responsibilities, have unveiled initiatives aimed
have made solar power increasingly “more accessible and at boosting communities’ access to solar power. This
affordable to those at the bottom of the pyramid” (“Light- was exemplified by the recent case of Cadbury investing
ing the Way,” 2012, pp. 14–16). approximately $1.3 million in the installation of 10,000
solar lanterns and panels for cocoa farmers in 160 com-
NGO, Aid Agency–Led Model munities in Ghana (“Cadbury Cocoa Partnership,” 2011;
A substantial part of development in the industry such Whitmore, 2011). This is under the Cadbury Cocoa Part-
as the building up of solar markets has been largely nership, which seeks to bring small-scale solar technology
Thunderbird International Business Review Vol. 57, No. 1 January/February 2015 DOI: 10.1002/tie
Solar Energy in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Challenges and Opportunities of Technological Leapfrogging 25
to cocoa farmers and isolated communities. Other ben- initiatives are essential in empowering women in Africa.
eficiaries of the solar panels scheme include schools, The Solar Sister model has expanded to Kenya, Uganda,
clinics, and food-processing sites to enhance local power Sudan, and South Sudan to help reach even the remotest
generation (“Cadbury Cocoa Partnership,” 2011; Whit- parts of the continent. The model generally seeks to help
more, 2011). Although such donor assistance and solar alleviate energy poverty by encouraging consumers to
NGOs are warranted in some areas, there is a real need switch from the expensive and hazardous use of kerosene
to shift away from donor-led projects to commercial and and candles for lighting to solar lighting and other prod-
productive investments, which allows viable private-sector ucts such as solar lamps (Kermeliotis, 2012).
firms to thrive (Hankins, 2011). In this direction, markets Although solar lighting systems cost around $50 or
for small solar systems less than 100 watt panels (Wp) $60, the vast majority of the poor in the developing world
are essential in helping low-income earners overcome cannot simply raise such an amount and require some
initial high costs. It provides an avenue toward creating kind of incremental payment method that the pay-as-you-
self-sufficient farmers and workers. go model offers (Murray, 2011). Firms seeking to gain the
innovation edge must be able to “blend in” with their cus-
Emerging-Market Multinational–Led Model tomers to allow diffusion of information and respond to
Emerging Chinese multinationals such as Hanwha-Solar- the customer’s requirements (Esty & Winston, 2006). The
One, Trina Solar, Yingli Green Energy, and JA Solar Avon model provides such a link between the producers
have recently emerged as major players in the scaling- of solar panels and their customers, which helps in not
up process in Africa through either exports or plant only the design but also pricing to attract their demand.
development contracts. The low cost base, ability to The blending-in process provides information about
absorb technologies developed largely in the West, customers and thereby sharpens the manufacturer’s
prior experience of operating in emerging markets, “senses about potential customer problems and possible
cheap labor, and availability of low-cost engineering and solutions” (Atuahene-Gima, 2012, pp. 51–52).
manufacturing talents have enabled them to alter the
competitive landscape. They are undercutting established
Pay-as-You-Go Solar Model
Western firms by offering low-cost solar panels. The rise
of these firms has led to innovations that allow solar PV As demonstrated in Table 2, in all the four countries,
panels and lanterns to be delivered to consumers at much high up-front PV solar installation costs serve as a major
lower cost and thereby improve their geographic cover-
age and their competitiveness. These are a new breed
of global firms that are creating opportunities for them-
selves and providing communities in Africa with access to
solar products to develop. Although solar lighting sys-
Avon Model tems cost around $50 or
One of the most attractive business models that has
recently been replicated in the industry is the Avon $60, the vast majority of the
model. It takes its roots from the late-nineteenth-century
“Avon ladies,” which started in the United States with poor in the developing world
door-to-door sales or direct sales of cosmetics products
(“Selling Sisters,” 2012). This model has been replicated cannot simply raise such an
with the “phone ladies” in rural Bangladesh and now
Solar Sister, which started in East Africa for the sale and amount and require some
distribution of solar products such as solar lamps (Kerme-
liotis, 2012; “Selling Sisters,” 2012). Solar Sister recruits kind of incremental payment
and trains women in East Africa by providing them access
to these jobs and empowering them through economic method that the pay-as-you-
opportunities. It provides an opportunity for women
without gainful employment to start their own social go model offers.
enterprises using a network of contacts to sell solar lamps
in rural communities (“Selling Sisters,” 2012). Such
DOI: 10.1002/tie Thunderbird International Business Review Vol. 57, No. 1 January/February 2015
26 FEATURE ARTICLE
deterrent to their adoption of the technology. An inno- new model to develop further. Next, we examine some
vative financing technique, the pay-as-you-go model has of the barriers to the scaling up of solar power in Africa.
emerged to help the poor gain access to solar energy at
their homes and small businesses. One of the services is Barriers to Scaling Up of Solar
offered by Eight19, a solar firm supported by the UK- Technology
based Carbon Trust, IndiGo (Murray, 2011; “Pay-as-You-
Go Solar Electricity” 2011; Price, 2012). Eight19 offers Solar energy provides isolated communities with some
solar energy equipment to off-grid communities and kind of “grid independence” to counter the unreliable
people to gain access to power on a rental basis (Murray, sources of power and experiences of rolling black-
2011; Price, 2012). The business model works this way: outs especially in Ghana and Nigeria. Indeed, solar
power has challenged utility companies and “democratize
Customers add credit to their IndiGo solar power
energy generation” by turning isolated homes and small
device using a scratchcard validated on a standard
firms into “energy generators” (Crane & Kennedy, 2012,
mobile phone through a text message. Using a mobile
p. A35). This empowers individual consumers to control
phone payment system eliminates the problem of cash
their power generation, which has been the major driving
collection and while IndiGo customers currently use
force in scaling up the solar revolution (Bradford, 2006,
scratchcards, as mobile banking expands, they could
p. 17). The economic and social cases for solar technol-
eventually pay directly through their mobile phones.
ogy in empowering communities to generate their own
(Murray, 2011, p. 28)
power and remove the reliance on national and regional
The pay-as-you-go model is where individuals and grid lighting are robust (Bradford, 2006; “Lighting the
firms in isolated areas are connected to power through Way,” 2012). Figure 2 provides the framework for our
the solar PV panels’ projects and in return make pay- analysis about the business model and the scaling-up pro-
ments to help sustain the operations. The model focuses cesses, and the effects of solar technology on individuals,
on incremental payment for solar panels and lanterns, entrepreneurs, firms, and governments.
which allow the poor to gain a foothold and eventually However, there are a number of obstacles to scaling
eliminate expensive kerosene and generators as sources up the technological leapfrogging in the four countries.
of power for their businesses and homes (“Pay-as-You-Go First, unlike consumers in the West who can afford the
Solar Electricity,” 2011). The agreement allows the users up-front costs of solar panels on their roofs to generate
to lease or rent a solar PV system. Solar power provides electricity, the majority of African in desperate need of
opportunities for developing countries to avoid using solar power can hardly afford such an investment even
inefficient and unreliable sources of energy such as kero- though there is a very strong economic and environ-
sene and move directly to renewable energy such as solar mental case for solar power (“Lighting the Way,” 2012).
lights to enhance their economic development (Coster, Indeed, “over 90% of the lifetime cost of a solar PV sys-
2011; Macguire, 2012). In Kenya, Eight19 sells solar tem is paid up-front” at the time of installation, which is
equipment such as light-emitting diode lamps, batteries, beyond the reach of most people in Africa (Bradford,
and phone chargers for around $10 and then charges cus- 2006, p. 137). As shown in Table 2, a lack of financing in
tomers a dollar a week to use them rather than the $2 a low-income countries often stymies the spread of technol-
week they are currently spending on kerosene (“Lighting ogy within national borders and constrains government’s
the Way,” 2012; Murray, 2011). ability to develop the human capital necessary for the
In addition to the technical innovations and techno- technology to spread (see also World Bank, 1998, 2008).
logical breakthroughs that have occurred, financial inno- In addition, many global companies are generally
vations such as these new methods of buying installation reluctant to allow their technologies to diffuse to the
systems have improved the accessibility of solar power local economy, which may alter the competitive land-
across the four countries. However, there are a number scape (Fu & Gong, 2011) and thereby limit developing
of problems inherent in this business model. It creates countries’ ability to acquire and utilize such technolo-
dependency on the firm and consumers may end up pay- gies to develop (Atuahene-Gima, 2012; Gallagher, 2006).
ing several dollars more than the market value. There is a The solar industry is now dominated by major Chinese,
real need to empower people at the base of the pyramid European, and US producers. This makes it difficult for
to be self-sufficient in the provision of electricity. Given knowledge and expertise in the industry to diffuse to the
that one fifth of the world’s population lacks access to local firms. Another barrier to technological leapfrogging
electricity via a grid, a unique opportunity exists for the is the government’s taxes and policies that have made
Thunderbird International Business Review Vol. 57, No. 1 January/February 2015 DOI: 10.1002/tie
Solar Energy in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Challenges and Opportunities of Technological Leapfrogging 27
Scaling-up models
Solar technologies • State-led model
• Photovoltaic panels • NGOs and aid agencies-led model
• Power stations • EMMNEs-led
• National and regional grids • Avon model
• Pay-as-you-go model
Barriers to scalingup
• High up-front capital costs
• Limited end-user financing schemes
• Limited human capital development
• Awareness of benefits of solar
Excess sold
to the grid
Note: The dotted lines are used to indicate that this is a largely underdeveloped or nonexisting market in Africa, but has potential to grow in the future.
electrification of towns by solar energy expensive (Mar- to enhance coverage and affordability of solar energy to
low, 2009). There has been little attempt on the part of the mass population (Noury, 2011).
governments to promote production of solar panels in Our analysis contributes to the growing body of lit-
Africa, with notable exceptions detailed earlier. erature on technological diffusion (Gallagher, 2006) by
delineating the mechanisms through which market con-
Discussion and Conclusion ditions and government policies influence the scaling of
new technologies. We also make a modest contribution to
In this article, we have examined the evolution of the the current literature on economic development by pre-
solar industry, governments’ policies, and barriers to senting an integrated model of solar scaling up in Africa,
scaling up solar technological leapfrogging in Africa. which elucidate the scaling-up processes, mechanisms,
We identified five main models aimed at scaling up solar and constraints. The article adds to the burgeoning
energy in Africa: state-led, NGO and other agency-led, stream of research that suggests that Africa’s future partly
EMMNEs, Avon, and pay-as-you-go. Through examina- lies in its ability to unlock the potential of solar energy
tion of government policies, we found that despite incen- and its people to address the current climate change chal-
tives such as tariff relief and subsidies, access to private lenge (Karekezi, 2002; UNIDO, 2009).
capital, high up-front PV solar installations, and limited
end-user financing schemes posed major challenges to Implications for Practice
the leapfrogging process. Kenya and South Africa are There are a number of practical implications stemming
the trendsetters in attracting and utilizing private capital from our analysis. First of all, although innovation is
to enhance development of solar energy, which can be essential to Africa’s future (Atuahene-Gima, 2012), many
replicated by the other countries. The recent develop- of the research and development (R&D) activities on
ments in Ghana and Nigeria provide an indication of the region remain loosely connected to economic and
steps toward building capabilities in this area. The analy- development projects. The industry demands capacity
sis demonstrates that the four countries have made sig- enhancement through R&D, education, and training to
nificant strides in devising strategies to leap to large-scale develop the skills of locals to support economic growth
solar sources of power generation. Promising signs such and foster innovation not only within the four countries
as the recent decline of solar PV panel prices and techno- but also across the continent. This also means a training
logical improvements have ushered in a new landscape and support system for solar energy engineers and tech-
accompanied by new business models that have emerged nicians to help manage and maintain solar equipment.
DOI: 10.1002/tie Thunderbird International Business Review Vol. 57, No. 1 January/February 2015
28 FEATURE ARTICLE
Thunderbird International Business Review Vol. 57, No. 1 January/February 2015 DOI: 10.1002/tie
Solar Energy in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Challenges and Opportunities of Technological Leapfrogging 29
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