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DCF Valuation

Valuation Date 03-Nov-17


Share Price in PHP 108
Shares Outstanding 605,953,330

Select Operating Data


Historical Data
in PHP 2014 2015

REVENUE 52,000,018,310 56,501,654,516

EBITDA 8,438,862,008 14,811,764,530

EBIT 4,157,336,990 9,700,220,806

EBT 878,635,984 3,528,795,289

Depreciation and Amortization 4,281,525,018 5,111,543,724

Select Balance Sheet and Other Data


Historical Data
in PHP 2014 2015

Current Assets
Cash and cash equivalents 3,963,912,683 4,706,090,063
Receivables 1,862,718,419 1,737,444,884
Financial assets at fair value through profit or loss - -
Expendable parts, fuel, materials and supplies 679,315,070 919,118,043
Other current assets 2,020,471,923 2,400,119,148
Total Current Assets 8,526,418,095 9,762,772,138

Total Noncurrent Assets 67,535,840,713 75,065,810,051


TOTAL ASSETS 76,062,258,808 84,828,582,189

Accounts payable and other accrued liabilities 10,668,437,651 11,602,989,706


Unearned transportation revenue 6,373,744,740 6,971,754,698
Current portion of long-term debt 4,712,465,291 5,423,699,184
Financial liabilities at fair value through PnL 2,260,559,896 2,443,495,138
Due to related parties 39,909,503 38,115,803
Income tax payable 5,831,638 20,038,200
Total Current Liabilities 24,060,948,719 26,500,092,729

Total Noncurrent Liabilities 30,462,505,902 33,373,294,304


Total Liabilities 54,523,454,621 59,873,387,033
Total Equity 21,538,804,187 24,955,195,156

TOTAL LIABILITIES AND EQUITY 76,062,258,808 84,828,582,189

BALANCE 0 0
CAPEX

Free Cash Flow Build up


Historical Data
in PHP 2014 2015

Total Revenue
EBITDA
EBIT
Earnings Before Tax
Tax Rate
EBIAT
Depreciation and Amortization
Accounts Receivable
Inventory (i.e if applicable)
Accounts payable and other accrued liabilities
CAPEX
Unlevered FCF
Discount Rate (WACC)
Present Value of Free Cash Flows
Sum of present values of FCFs 34,743,119,502

Terminal Value
Growth in Perptuity Method:
Long Term Growth Rate 1.60% retrieved from REUTERS
WACC 8.60%
Free Cash Flow (t+1) 9,566,829,544
Terminal Value 136,710,448,430
Present Value of Terminal Value in PHP 90,509,678,896

WACC
Share Price in PHP 108
Outstanding Shares 605,953,330
Cost of Debt 6.00% based from 2016 annual report
Tax Rate 30%
After-Tax Cost of Debt 4.20%
Cost of Equity 13.10%

Total Debt (PHP) 2016 67,009,069,764


Total Equity (PHP) 2016 65,442,959,640
Total Capital 132,452,029,404

Debt Weighting 50.59%


Common Equity Weighting 49.41%
Preferred Equity Weighting 0
100%

WACC 8.60%

Entereprise Value to Equity Value


Enterprise Value 125,252,798,398
Less: Net Debt 56,712,827,460
Equity Value 68,539,970,938
Outstanding Shares 605,953,330
Equity Value Per Share in PHP 113

BUY
al Data Projected Annual Forecast
2016 2017F 2018F 2019F
1 2 3
61,899,278,892 63,039,168,274 64,200,048,979 65,382,307,568

18,249,893,603 18,282,024,199 18,618,691,857 18,961,559,327

12,251,198,186 12,172,861,433 12,397,027,461 12,625,321,558

9,716,164,709 10,982,236,728 11,185,602,033 11,392,732,010

5,998,695,417 6,109,162,765 6,221,664,395 6,336,237,769

al Data Projected Annual Forecast


2016 2017F 2018F 2019F
1 2 3

10,296,242,304 11,516,274,539 11,310,664,066 10,602,367,090


2,126,793,862 2,174,519,896 2,223,316,920 2,273,208,968
441,773,905 - - -
1,190,056,987 1,230,501,555 1,272,320,649 1,315,560,981
1,096,270,685 937,248,601 801,293,834 685,060,300
15,151,137,743 15,858,544,591 15,607,595,469 14,876,197,339

85,363,204,540 87,598,449,252 89,896,718,396 92,260,076,724


100,514,342,283 103,456,993,843 105,504,313,865 107,136,274,063

12,583,636,942 12,789,496,113 12,998,722,990 13,211,372,668


8,141,752,728 8,398,332,607 8,662,998,366 8,936,004,824
7,040,253,460 8,939,151,650 9,103,768,172 9,271,416,146
- - - -
37,689,554 43,097,181 43,890,825 44,699,085
24,152,004 24,152,003 24,152,002 24,152,001
27,827,484,688 30,194,229,554 30,833,532,356 31,487,644,724

39,181,585,076 70,057,697,522 72,014,897,017 73,411,758,201


67,009,069,764
33,505,272,519 33,399,296,321 33,489,416,848 33,724,515,862

100,514,342,283 103,456,993,843 105,504,313,865 107,136,274,063

0 0 0 0
5,596,086,221 5,596,086,221 5,596,086,221

al Data Projected Annual Forecast


2016 2017F 2018F 2019F
1 2 3
63,039,168,274 64,200,048,979 65,382,307,568
18,282,024,199 18,618,691,857 18,961,559,327
12,172,861,433 12,397,027,461 12,625,321,558
10,982,236,728 11,185,602,033 11,392,732,010
30.00% 30.00% 30.00%
7,687,565,709 7,829,921,423 7,974,912,407
6,109,162,765 6,221,664,395 6,336,237,769
-47,726,034 -48,797,024 -49,892,047
0 0 0
205,859,171 209,226,878 212,649,678
-5,596,086,221 -5,596,086,221 -5,596,086,221
8,358,775,390 8,615,929,451 8,877,821,585
8.60% 8.60% 8.60%
7,696,997,024 7,305,660,069 6,931,742,204
016 annual report

CAPM = Risk Free Rate + Beta (Risk Premium)

Risk Free Rate from 10year Philippine Government Bond = 5.121% (from ADB Website) as of Nov 3, 2017
BETA = 0.95 as of Nov 3, 2017
Market Risk Premium = 8.4%
Rates of Return on Financial Assets in the Philippines
by R.C Ybanez (extended up to 2016)
nual Forecast
2020F 2021F
4 5
66,586,337,719 67,812,540,361

19,310,740,780 19,666,352,489

12,857,819,743 13,094,599,435

11,603,696,329 11,818,565,949

6,452,921,037 6,571,753,054

nual Forecast
2020F 2021F
4 5

10,600,004,182 10,111,274,536
2,324,220,611 2,376,376,974
- -
1,360,270,853 1,406,500,209
585,687,291 500,729,064
14,870,182,937 14,394,880,783

94,690,679,808 97,190,779,673
109,560,862,745 111,585,660,455

13,427,501,140 13,647,165,317
9,217,614,830 9,508,099,518
9,442,151,395 9,616,030,773
- -
45,522,229 46,360,531
24,152,000 24,151,999
32,156,941,595 32,841,808,139

75,453,585,240 76,945,224,866

34,107,277,505 34,640,435,590

109,560,862,745 111,585,660,455

0 0
5,596,086,221 5,596,086,221

nual Forecast
2020F 2021F
4 5
66,586,337,719 67,812,540,361
19,310,740,780 19,666,352,489
12,857,819,743 13,094,599,435
11,603,696,329 11,818,565,949
30.00% 30.00%
8,122,587,430 8,272,996,164
6,452,921,037 6,571,753,054
-51,011,643 -52,156,363
0 0
216,128,472 219,664,177
-5,596,086,221 -5,596,086,221
9,144,539,075 9,416,170,811
8.60% 8.60%
6,574,708,054 6,234,012,150
e) as of Nov 3, 2017
CEBU AIR, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF COMPREHENSIVE INCOME
in PHP HISTORICAL DATA
Years Ended December 31
2014 2015
REVENUE
Sale of air transportation services
Passenger 40,188,445,623 42,681,069,939
Cargo 3,146,083,310 3,461,136,749
Ancillary revenues 8,665,489,377 10,359,447,828
52,000,018,310 56,501,654,516

EXPENSES
Flying operations 26,152,476,007 20,916,360,534
Aircraft and traffic servicing 4,805,212,489 5,847,099,305
Repairs and maintenance 4,432,437,982 5,240,478,648
Depreciation and amortization 4,281,525,018 5,111,543,724
Aircraft and engine lease 3,503,484,521 4,024,599,732
Reservation and sales 2,153,987,158 2,625,456,497
General and administrative 1,296,817,694 1,552,148,933
Passenger service 1,216,740,451 1,483,746,337
47,842,681,320 46,801,433,710
NET OPERATING PROFIT 4,157,336,990 9,700,220,806
4,157,336,990 9,700,220,806
OTHER INCOME (EXPENSES)
Hedging gains (losses) - net -2,314,241,984 -2,931,215,906
Equity in net income of joint ventures 96,326,091 35,418,498
Interest income 79,927,272 83,006,926
Loss on sale of aircraft -80,267,191
Interest Expense -1,013,241,353 -1,073,109,693
Foreign exchange losses - net -127,471,032 -2,205,258,151
-3,278,701,006 -6,171,425,517

INCOME BEFORE INCOME TAX 878,635,984 3,528,795,289

PROVISION FOR (BENEFIT FROM) INCOME TAX (Note 25) 25,137,768 -858,430,586

NET INCOME 853,498,216 4,387,225,875

OTHER COMPREHENSIVE INCOME (LOSS), NET OF TAX


Other comprehensive income (loss) not to be reclassified to profit or loss in subsequent periods:
Actuarial gains (losses) on pension liability (Note 24) 301,535,342 -83,002,333
Provision for (benefit from) income tax (Note 25) 91,853,356 -21,097,422
209,681,986 -61,904,911
TOTAL COMPREHENSIVE INCOME 1,063,180,202 4,325,320,964

Basic/Diluted Earnings Per Share (Note 26) 16 7

Growth Analysis and Drivers


Revenue
Sale of air transportation services
Passenger 40,188,445,623 42,681,069,939
GROWTH RATE
Cargo 3,146,083,310 3,461,136,749
GROWTH RATE
Ancillary revenues 8,665,489,377 10,359,447,828
GROWTH RATE
TOTAL REVENUES 52,000,018,310 56,501,654,516
GROWTH RATE

EXPENSES
Flying operations 26,152,476,007 20,916,360,534
Cost Ratio 50.29% 37.02%
Aircraft and traffic servicing 4,805,212,489 5,847,099,305
Cost Ratio 9% 10.35%
Repairs and maintenance 4,432,437,982 5,240,478,648
Cost Ratio 9% 9.27%
Depreciation and amortization 4,281,525,018 5,111,543,724
Cost Ratio 8% 9.05%
Aircraft and engine lease 3,503,484,521 4,024,599,732
Cost Ratio 7% 7.12%
Reservation and sales 2,153,987,158 2,625,456,497
Cost Ratio 4% 4.65%
General and administrative 1,296,817,694 1,552,148,933
Cost Ratio 2% 2.75%
Passenger service 1,216,740,451 1,483,746,337
Cost Ratio 2% 3%
47,842,681,320 46,801,433,710

OTHER INCOME (EXPENSES)


Hedging gains (losses) - net -2,314,241,984 -2,931,215,906
Equity in net income of joint ventures 96,326,091 35,418,498
Interest income 79,927,272 83,006,926
Loss on sale of aircraft -80,267,191
Interest Expense -1,013,241,353 -1,073,109,693
-1.95% -1.90%
Foreign exchange losses - net -127,471,032 -2,205,258,151
-3,278,701,006 -6,171,425,517
RICAL DATA FORECAST
d December 31
2016 2017 2018 2019

46,592,511,272 47,416,804,542.47 48,255,680,830 49,109,398,131


3,563,752,865 3,584,638,324 3,605,646,183 3,626,777,160
11,743,014,755 12,041,156,649 12,346,868,029 12,660,341,077
61,899,278,892 63,039,168,274 64,200,048,979 65,382,307,568

19,694,348,716 20,057,024,653 20,426,379,351 20,802,535,799


6,577,984,803 6,699,119,898 6,822,485,723 6,948,123,359
6,530,857,486 6,651,124,721 6,773,606,704 6,898,344,221
5,998,695,417 6,109,162,765 6,221,664,395 6,336,237,769
4,253,724,294 4,332,057,600 4,411,833,432 4,493,078,354
3,211,696,086 3,270,840,204 3,331,073,475 3,392,415,955
1,813,043,477 1,846,431,087 1,880,433,538 1,915,062,152
1,567,730,427 1,900,545,911 1,935,544,899 1,971,188,401
49,648,080,706 50,866,306,840 51,803,021,517 52,756,986,010
12,251,198,186 12,172,861,433 12,397,027,461 12,625,321,558
12,251,198,186

1,587,708,081
178,308,842
113,672,171
-962,608,741
-1,170,181,141 -1,190,624,706 -1,211,425,428 -1,232,589,548
-2,281,932,689
-2,535,033,477

9,716,164,709 10,982,236,728 11,185,602,033 11,392,732,010

-37,971,487 30%

9,754,136,196 7,687,565,709 7,829,921,423 7,974,912,407

11,211,184
3,363,357
7,847,827
9,761,984,023

16

1 2 3
CAGR
46,592,511,272 1.77% 47,416,804,542 48,255,680,830 49109398131.1954
1.77% 1.77% 1.77%
3,563,752,865 0.59% 3,584,638,324 3,605,646,183 3626777159.62978
0.59% 0.59% 0.59%
11,743,014,755 2.54% 12,041,156,649 12,346,868,029 12660341076.5326
2.54% 2.54% 2.54%
61,899,278,892 1.84% 63,039,168,274 64,200,048,979 65382307567.8382
1.84% 1.84% 1.84%

19,694,348,716 20,057,024,653 20,426,379,351 20,802,535,799


31.82% 31.82% 31.82% 31.82%
6,577,984,803 6,699,119,898 6,822,485,723 6,948,123,359
10.63% 10.63% 10.63% 10.63%
6,530,857,486 6,651,124,721 6,773,606,704 6,898,344,221
10.55% 10.55% 10.55% 10.55%
5,998,695,417 6,109,162,765 6,221,664,395 6,336,237,769
9.69% 9.69% 9.69% 9.69%
4,253,724,294 4,332,057,600 4,411,833,432 4,493,078,354
6.87% 6.87% 6.87% 6.87%
3,211,696,086 3,270,840,204 3,331,073,475 3,392,415,955
5.19% 5.19% 5.19% 5.19%
1,813,043,477 1,846,431,087 1,880,433,538 1,915,062,152
2.93% 2.93% 2.93% 2.93%
1,567,730,427 1,900,545,911 1,935,544,899 1,971,188,401
3% 3.01% 3.01% 3.01%
49,648,080,706 50,866,306,840 51,803,021,517 52,756,986,010

1,587,708,081
178,308,842
113,672,171
-962,608,741
-1,170,181,141 -1,190,624,706 -1,211,425,428 -1,232,589,548
-1.89% 1.75% 1.75% 1.75% 1.75%
-2,281,932,689
-2,535,033,477
AST

2020 2021

49,978,219,006 50,862,410,660
3,648,031,974 3,669,411,353
12,981,772,851 13,311,365,415
66,586,337,719 67,812,540,361

21,185,619,255 21,575,757,280
7,076,074,640 7,206,382,173
7,025,378,808 7,154,752,766
6,452,921,037 6,571,753,054
4,575,819,419 4,660,084,181
3,454,888,071 3,518,510,625
1,950,328,460 1,986,244,204
2,007,488,287 2,044,456,643
53,728,517,976 54,717,940,926
12,857,819,743 13,094,599,435

-1,254,123,414 -1,276,033,486

11,603,696,329 11,818,565,949

8,122,587,430 8,272,996,164
4 5

49978219005.8631 50862410659.6684
1.77% 1.77%
3648031974.38824 3669411353.49972
0.59% 0.59%
12981772850.7425 13311365415.0011
2.54% 2.54%
66586337719.2541 67812540361.3552
1.84% 1.84%

21,185,619,255 21,575,757,280
31.82% 31.82%
7,076,074,640 7,206,382,173
10.63% 10.63%
7,025,378,808 7,154,752,766
10.55% 10.55%
6,452,921,037 6,571,753,054
9.69% 9.69%
4,575,819,419 4,660,084,181
6.87% 6.87%
3,454,888,071 3,518,510,625
5.19% 5.19%
1,950,328,460 1,986,244,204
2.93% 2.93%
2,007,488,287 2,044,456,643
3.01% 3.01%
53,728,517,976 54,717,940,926

-1,254,123,414 -1,276,033,486
1.75% 1.75%
CEBU AIR, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF FINANCIAL POSITION
HISTORICAL DATA
2014 2015
ASSETS

Current Assets
Cash and cash equivalents 3,963,912,683 4,706,090,063
Receivables 1,862,718,419 1,737,444,884
Financial assets at fair value through profit or loss 0 0
Expendable parts, fuel, materials and supplies 679,315,070 919,118,043
Other current assets 2,020,471,923 2,400,119,148
Total Current Assets 8,526,418,095 9,762,772,138

Noncurrent Assets
Property and equipment 65,227,125,368 72,075,821,013
Investments in joint ventures 591,339,486 525,623,987
Goodwill 566,781,533 566,781,533
Deferred tax assets - net 876,296,996
Other noncurrent assets 1,150,594,326 1,021,286,522
Total Noncurrent Assets 67,535,840,713 75,065,810,051

TOTAL ASSETS 76,062,258,808 84,828,582,189

LIABILITIES AND EQUITY

Current Liabilities
Accounts payable and other accrued liabilities 10,668,437,651 11,602,989,706
Unearned transportation revenue 6,373,744,740 6,971,754,698
Current portion of long-term debt 4,712,465,291 5,423,699,184
Financial liabilities at fair value through PnL 2,260,559,896 2,443,495,138
Due to related parties 39,909,503 38,115,803
Income tax payable 5,831,638 20,038,200
Total Current Liabilities 24,060,948,719 26,500,092,729

Noncurrent Liabilities
Long-term debt - net of current portion (Notes 13 and 18) 29,137,197,374 31,165,286,307
Deferred tax liabilities - net (Notes 7 and 25) 129,160,379 0
Pension liability (Note 24) 385,665,449 546,480,714
Other noncurrent liabilities (Note 19) 810,482,700 1,661,527,283
Total Noncurrent Liabilities 30,462,505,902 33,373,294,304
Total Liabilities 54,523,454,621 59,873,387,033
Equity
Common stock (Note 20) 613,236,550 613,236,550
Capital paid in excess of par value 8,405,568,120 8,405,568,120
Treasury stock -529,319,321 -529,319,321
Other comprehensive loss (Notes 9 and 24) -131,968,292 -193,873,203
Retained earnings (Note 14) 13,181,287,130 16,659,583,010
Total Equity 21,538,804,187 24,955,195,156

TOTAL LIABILITIES AND EQUITY 76,062,258,808 84,828,582,189


1 1
BALANCE 0 0

COMPUTAT
2016 % allocation
Property and equipment 81,890,303,497 99.31%
Goodwill 566,781,533 0.69%
82,457,085,030 100%

2016
Depreciation and amortization Expense 5,998,695,417
Depreciation 5,957,462,456
Amortization 41,232,961
PPE depreciation rate 7.27%

2014 2015
Investments in joint ventures 591,339,486 525,623,987

Deferred tax assets - net 0 876,296,996

Other noncurrent assets 1,150,594,326 1,021,286,522

Property and equipment - GROSS 65,227,125,368 72,075,821,013


PPE depreciation rate 7.27%
Property and equipment - NET

Pension liability (Note 24) 385,665,449 546,480,714

Other noncurrent liabilities (Note 19) 810,482,700 1,661,527,283


Other comprehensive loss (Notes 9 and 24) -131,968,292 -193,873,203

Long-term debt - net of current portion (Notes 13 and 18) 29,137,197,374 31,165,286,307

Deferred tax liabilities - net (Notes 7 and 25) 129,160,379 0

2014 2015
Retained earnings (Note 14) 13,181,287,130 16,659,583,010

BEG. BALANCE
NET INCOME BEFORE TAX
DECLARED DIVIDEND
Appropriation of RE
Treasury stock -529,319,321 -529,319,321
END BALANCE

CAPEX 2014 2015


Additions (from 2016 Annual Report) 13,529,968,015
Investment Growth Property
RICAL DATA FORECAST
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

10,296,242,304 11,516,274,539 11,310,664,066 10,602,367,090 10,600,004,182


2,126,793,862 2,174,519,896 2,223,316,920 2,273,208,968 2,324,220,611
441,773,905 0 0 0 0
1,190,056,987 1,230,501,555 1,272,320,649 1,315,560,981 1,360,270,853
1,096,270,685 937,248,601 801,293,834 685,060,300 585,687,291
15,151,137,743 15,858,544,591 15,607,595,469 14,876,197,339 14,870,182,937

81,890,303,497 84,008,079,640 86,180,623,876 88,409,352,571 90,695,718,717


805,801,372 877,684,781 955,980,719 1,041,261,230 1,134,149,390
566,781,533 566,781,533 566,781,533 566,781,533 566,781,533
1,073,499,679 1,117,974,861 1,164,292,654 1,212,529,397 1,262,764,592
1,026,818,459 1,027,928,437 1,029,039,615 1,030,151,994 1,031,265,575
85,363,204,540 87,598,449,252 89,896,718,396 92,260,076,724 94,690,679,808

100,514,342,283 103,456,993,843 105,504,313,865 107,136,274,063 109,560,862,745

12,583,636,942 12,789,496,113 12,998,722,990 13,211,372,668 13,427,501,140


8,141,752,728 8,398,332,607 8,662,998,366 8,936,004,824 9,217,614,830
7,040,253,460 8,939,151,650 9,103,768,172 9,271,416,146 9,442,151,395
0 0 0 0 0
37,689,554 43,097,181 43,890,825 44,699,085 45,522,229
24,152,004 24,152,003 24,152,002 24,152,001 24,152,000
27,827,484,688 30,194,229,554 30,833,532,356 31,487,644,724 32,156,941,595

35,770,184,170 36,769,793,194 37,797,336,605 38,853,595,040 39,939,370,948


0 0 0 0 0
568,769,315 573,334,957 577,937,248 582,576,483 587,252,958
2,842,631,591 2,520,339,818 2,806,090,807 2,487,941,954 2,770,019,739
39,181,585,076 39,863,467,968 41,181,364,660 41,924,113,477 43,296,643,645
67,009,069,764 70,057,697,522 72,014,897,017 73,411,758,201 75,453,585,240
613,236,550 613,236,550 613,236,550 613,236,550 613,236,550
8,405,568,120 8,405,568,120 8,405,568,120 8,405,568,120 8,405,568,120
-529,319,321 -529,319,321 -529,319,321 -529,319,321 -529,319,321
-186,025,376 -184,494,351 -182,975,926 -181,469,998 -179,976,464
25,201,812,546 25,094,305,323 25,182,907,425 25,416,500,511 25,797,768,620
33,505,272,519 33,399,296,321 33,489,416,848 33,724,515,862 34,107,277,505

100,514,342,283 103,456,993,843 105,504,313,865 107,136,274,063 109,560,862,745


1
0 0 0 0 0

COMPUTATIONS
GROSS NET
87,847,765,953 ###
608,014,494 ###

2017 2018 2019 2020


6,109,162,765 6,221,664,395 6,336,237,769 6,452,921,037
5,957,462,456 0 0 0

2017 2018 2019 2020


2016 CAGR 877,684,781 955,980,719 1,041,261,230 1,134,149,390
805,801,372 8.92% 8.92% 8.92% 8.92% 8.92%

CAGR 1,117,974,861 1,164,292,654 1,212,529,397 1,262,764,592


1,073,499,679 4.14% 4.14% 4.14% 4.14% 4.14%

CAGR 1,027,928,437 1,029,039,615 1,030,151,994 1,031,265,575


1,026,818,459 0.11% 0.11% 0.11% 0.11% 0.11%

CAGR 84,008,079,640 86,180,623,876 88,409,352,571 90,695,718,717


81,890,303,497 2.59% 2.59% 2.59% 2.59% 2.59%
6,111,529,193 6,269,580,271 6,431,718,728 6,598,050,271
77,896,550,447 79,911,043,605 81,977,633,842 84,097,668,447

CAGR 573,334,957 577,937,248 582,576,483 587,252,958


568,769,315 0.80% 0.80% 0.80% 0.80% 0.80%

CAGR 2,520,339,818 2,806,090,807 2,487,941,954 2,770,019,739


2,842,631,591 11.34% -11.34% 11.34% -11.34% 11.34%
CAGR -184,494,351 -182,975,926 -181,469,998 -179,976,464
-186,025,376 -0.82% -0.82% -0.82% -0.82% -0.82%

CAGR 36,769,793,194 37,797,336,605 38,853,595,040 39,939,370,948


35,770,184,170 2.79% 2.79% 2.79% 2.79% 2.79%

0 0 0 0 0

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


25,201,812,546

25,201,812,546 25,148,058,934 25,094,305,323 25,182,907,425 25,416,500,511


7,687,565,709 7,687,565,709 7,829,921,423 7,974,912,407 8,122,587,430
-606,000,000 -606,000,000 -606,000,000 -606,000,000 -606,000,000
-6,606,000,000 -6,606,000,000 -6,606,000,000 -6,606,000,000 -6,606,000,000
-529,319,321 -529,319,321 -529,319,321 -529,319,321 -529,319,321
25,148,058,934 25,094,305,323 25,182,907,425 25,416,500,511 25,797,768,620

2016 CAGR
19,126,054,236 7.17% 5,596,086,221 5,596,086,221 5,596,086,221 5,596,086,221
41.36%

5,596,086,221
2021

10,111,274,536
2,376,376,974
0
1,406,500,209
500,729,064
14,394,880,783

93,041,212,886
1,235,323,857
566,781,533
1,315,081,035
1,032,380,360
97,190,779,673

111,585,660,455

13,647,165,317
9,508,099,518
9,616,030,773
0
46,360,531
24,151,999
32,841,808,139

41,055,489,205
0
591,966,972
2,455,960,549
44,103,416,727
76,945,224,866
613,236,550
8,405,568,120
-529,319,321
-178,495,223
26,329,445,463
34,640,435,590

111,585,660,455

2021
6,571,753,054
0

2021
1,235,323,857
8.92%

1,315,081,035
4.14%

1,032,380,360
0.11%

93,041,212,886
2.59%
6,768,683,335
86,272,529,551

591,966,972
0.80%

2,455,960,549
-11.34%
-178,495,223
-0.82%

41,055,489,205
2.79%

2021

25,797,768,620
8,272,996,164
-606,000,000
-6,606,000,000
-529,319,321
26,329,445,463

5,596,086,221
HISTORICAL DATA
2014
TOTAL REVENUE 52,000,018,310
OPERATING EXPENSES 47,842,681,320
Net Operating Income (Loss) 4,157,336,990

CURRENT ASSETS
Current Assets
Cash and cash equivalents 3,963,912,683
Receivables 1,862,718,419
Financial assets at fair value through profit or loss 0
Expendable parts, fuel, materials and supplies 679,315,070
Other current assets 2,020,471,923
Total Current Assets 8,526,418,095

Current Liabilities
Accounts payable and other accrued liabilities 10,668,437,651
Unearned transportation revenue 6,373,744,740
Current portion of long-term debt 4,712,465,291
Financial liabilities at fair value through profit or loss 2,260,559,896
Due to related parties 39,909,503
Income tax payable 5,831,638
Total Current Liabilities 24,060,948,719

WORKING CAPITAL -15,534,530,624


Current Ratio 0.35
(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 0

Ratios & Assumptions


Receivables 1,862,718,419
% of Sales 3.58%
AR Days 13.07

Financial assets at fair value through profit or loss 0

Expendable parts, fuel, materials and supplies 679,315,070


% of Sales 1.31%

Other current assets 2,020,471,923


% of Sales 3.89%

Accounts payable and other accrued liabilities 10,668,437,651


% of Expenses or COGS 22.30%

Unearned transportation revenue 6,373,744,740


% of Expenses or COGS 13.32%

Current portion of long-term debt 4,712,465,291


% of Expenses or COGS 9.85%

Income tax payable 5,831,638


% of Expenses or COGS 0.01%

Financial liabilities at fair value through profit or loss 2,260,559,896


% of Expenses or COGS 4.35%

Due to related parties 39,909,503


0.08%

Cash and cash equivalents 3,963,912,683


HISTORICAL DATA FORECASTS
2015 2016 2017 2018
56,501,654,516 61,899,278,892 63,039,168,274 64,200,048,979
46,801,433,710 49,648,080,706 50,866,306,840 51,803,021,517
9,700,220,806 12,251,198,186 12,172,861,433 12,397,027,461

4,706,090,063 10,296,242,304 11,516,274,539 11,310,664,066


1,737,444,884 2,126,793,862 2,174,519,896 2,223,316,920
0 441,773,905 0 0
919,118,043 1,190,056,987 1,230,501,555 1,272,320,649
2,400,119,148 1,096,270,685 937,248,601 801,293,834
9,762,772,138 15,151,137,743 15,858,544,591 15,607,595,469

11,602,989,706 12,583,636,942 12,789,496,113 12,998,722,990


6,971,754,698 8,141,752,728 8,398,332,607 8,662,998,366
5,423,699,184 7,040,253,460 8,939,151,650 9,103,768,172
2,443,495,138 0 0 0
38,115,803 37,689,554 43,097,181 43,890,825
20,038,200 24,152,004 24,152,003 24,152,002
26,500,092,729 27,827,484,688 30,194,229,554 30,833,532,356

-16,737,320,591 -12,676,346,945 -14,335,684,962 -15,225,936,888


0.37 0.54 0.53 0.51
2,439,144,010 1,327,391,959 30,194,229,554 639,302,803

1,737,444,884 2,126,793,862 2,174,519,896 2,223,316,920


3.08% 3.44% 2.24% 2.24% 2.24%
11.22 12.54 12.54 12.54

0 441,773,905 0 0
0.71% 0.71% 0.71% 0.71%

919,118,043 1,190,056,987 1,230,501,555 1,272,320,649


1.63% 1.92% 3.40% 3.40% 3.40%

2,400,119,148 1,096,270,685 937,248,601 801,293,834


4.25% 1.77% -14.51% -14.51% -14.51%

11,602,989,706 12,583,636,942 12,789,496,113 12,998,722,990


24.79% 25.35% 1.64% 1.64% 1.64%

6,971,754,698 8,141,752,728 8,398,332,607 8,662,998,366


14.90% 16.40% 3.15% 3.15% 3.15%

5,423,699,184 7,040,253,460 8,939,151,650 9,103,768,172


11.59% 14.18% 5.36% 14.18% 14.18%

20,038,200 24,152,004 24,152,003 24,152,002


0.04% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05%

2,443,495,138 0 988,777,232 1,006,985,791


4.32% 0.00% 1.6%

38,115,803 37,689,554 43,097,181 43,890,825


0.07% 0.06% 0.07% 0.07%

11,516,274,539 11,310,664,066
4,706,090,063 10,296,242,304 11.85% -1.79%
FORECASTS
2019 2020 2021
65,382,307,568 66,586,337,719 67,812,540,361
52,756,986,010 53,728,517,976 54,717,940,926
12,625,321,558 12,857,819,743 13,094,599,435

10,602,367,090 10,600,004,182 10,111,274,536


2,273,208,968 2,324,220,611 2,376,376,974
0 0 0
1,315,560,981 1,360,270,853 1,406,500,209
685,060,300 585,687,291 500,729,064
14,876,197,339 14,870,182,937 14,394,880,783

13,211,372,668 13,427,501,140 13,647,165,317


8,936,004,824 9,217,614,830 9,508,099,518
9,271,416,146 9,442,151,395 9,616,030,773
0 0 0
44,699,085 45,522,229 46,360,531
24,152,001 24,152,000 24,151,999
31,487,644,724 32,156,941,595 32,841,808,139

-16,611,447,385 -17,286,758,657 -18,446,927,356


0.47 0.46 0.44
654,112,368 669,296,871 684,866,544

2,273,208,968 2,324,220,611 2,376,376,974


2.24% 2.24% 2.24%
12.54 12.54 12.54

0 0 0
0.71% 0.71% 0.71%

1,315,560,981 1,360,270,853 1,406,500,209


3.40% 3.40% 3.40%

685,060,300 585,687,291 500,729,064


-14.51% -14.51% -14.51%

13,211,372,668 13,427,501,140 13,647,165,317


1.64% 1.64% 1.64%

8,936,004,824 9,217,614,830 9,508,099,518


3.15% 3.15% 3.15%

9,271,416,146 9,442,151,395 9,616,030,773


14.18% 14.18% 14.18%

24,152,001 24,152,000 24,151,999


0.05% 0.05% 0.05%

1,025,529,665 1,044,415,028 1,063,648,170

44,699,085 45,522,229 46,360,531


0.07% 0.07% 0.07%

10,602,367,090 10,600,004,182 10,111,274,536


-6.26% -0.02% -4.61%