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Alexandria Engineering Journal (2011) 50, 245–255

Alexandria University

Alexandria Engineering Journal


www.elsevier.com/locate/aej
www.sciencedirect.com

ORIGINAL ARTICLE

Evaluation of performance measures for rural


two-lane roads in Egypt
a,* b,1
Ibrahim Hassan Hashim , Talaat Ali Abdel-Wahed

a
Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Minoufiya University, Shebin El-Kom, Egypt
b
Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Sohag University, Sohag, Egypt

Received 8 June 2011; accepted 14 August 2011


Available online 28 September 2011

KEYWORDS Abstract This paper presents an empirical evaluation of the relationship between operational
Two-lane highways; performance and platooning phenomenon in rural two-lane roads in Egypt. Seven performance
Performance measures; measures and three platooning variables were defined and calculated for eight study sites using traf-
Platooning variables; fic data from roads in Minoufiya governorate, Egypt. Using graphical and statistical analyses, the
Traffic flow; associations between the performance measures and the platooning variables were examined. The
Follower density results showed that the follower density performance measure was found to have the strongest cor-
relations to platooning variables. Among the platooning variables investigated, traffic flow in the
direction of travel has the highest correlations with performance measures. The study demonstrated
that the relationship between follower density and traffic flow is better described by a quadratic
form. Finally, threshold values for different levels-of-service were proposed. This might help traffic
engineers, in Egypt, to evaluate operational performance using criteria that reflect the local condi-
tions of the area under study.
ª 2011 Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V.
All rights reserved.

* Corresponding author. Tel.: +20 104872929. 1. Introduction


E-mail addresses: hashim1612@hotmail.com (I.H. Hashim), tala
at_444@yahoo.com (T.A. Abdel_Wahed). Rural two-lane highways are an important type of uninter-
1
Tel.: +20 124445576. rupted flow facilities in which there is no obstructions to the
movement of vehicles along the road. Such facilities represent
1110-0168 ª 2011 Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University. the majority of the highway system in Egypt, as they constitute
Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. about 75% of all paved rural highways. Measuring traffic per-
formance at these facilities is a complex issue due to their un-
Peer review under responsibility of Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria
ique characteristics, since a single lane is provided for travel in
University.
doi:10.1016/j.aej.2011.08.001 each direction resulting in higher level of interaction between
vehicles traveling not only in the same but also in opposing
directions. Traffic engineers usually search for methods to
Production and hosting by Elsevier define the traffic capacity and quality of traffic flow for differ-
ent highway facilities. Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) uses
246 I.H. Hashim, T.A. Abdel-Wahed

Percent-Time-Spent-Following (PTSF) as the primary level of 3 s (or PTSF) based on flow rates in the observed and opposing
service (LOS) measure for two-lane highways [1]. The PTSF is directions. Dixon et al. [3] at the University of Idaho gathered
defined as ‘‘the average percentage of travel time that vehicles data at five points along Highway 12 in Idaho. Field values of
must travel in platoons behind slower vehicles because of an the 3-s rule were compared to PTSF estimates computed using
inability to pass’’ [1]. HCM procedures. Van As, with the South African National
The HCM procedures use either equations or field mea- Roads Agency, collected data from 25 two-lane highways [4].
surements to estimate PTSF. As it is impractical to measure The comparison between HCM PTSF model and percent fol-
the PTSF in the field, the HCM proposes using a surrogate lowers measured in the field was done. Al-Kaisy and Durbin
measure, percent followers (i.e. the percentage of vehicles [5] at Montana State University collected data from six two-
with headways less than three seconds (3-s rule)). Studies re- lane highway sites in Montana and compared the field mea-
vealed that the PTSF equations produce results that are sured percent followers to the PTSF calculated using the
inconsistent with the 3-s rule [2–5]. Due such limitation in HCM directional analysis. All such studies reveled that there
PTSF measure, alternative performance measures were intro- are high discrepancies between the HCM PTSF and HCM sur-
duced by many authors in many countries to fit their local rogate measure estimates using field data.
conditions. Examples of such alternative measures include Therefore other studies proposed the use of performance
follower density, average travel speed of passenger cars, pla- measures other than those used by the HCM. Density was used
toon percentage (the percentage of headways less than three as the service measure for two-lane highways in German high-
seconds), density, percent of vehicle impeded (PI), and oth- way capacity manual. It was calculated as flow divided by the
ers [4–9]. average travel speed of passenger cars, as reported by Brilon
The main aim of this paper is to evaluate several performance and Weiser [6]. Brilon and Weiser reported that the PTSF had
measures for estimating the traffic operational characteristics on never been considered as a substantial measure of effectiveness
two-lane highways using data from rural roads in Minoufiya in Germany as it does not directly express the degree of efficiency
governorate, Egypt. The performance measures include average of traffic operation. Van As [4] introduced follower density
travel speed, average travel speed of passenger cars, average tra- (number of vehicles with short headways per unit length) as a
vel speed as a percentage of free-flow speed, average travel speed new service measure for two-lane highways in South Africa.
of passenger cars as a percentage of free-flow speed of passenger Among other performance measures considered by the same
cars, percent followers, follower density, and percentage of vehi- project are: the follower flow (number of vehicles with short
cle impeded. The evaluation was carried out by examining the headways per hour), percent followers (percentage of vehicles
level of association between the performance measures and pla- with short headways), percent speed reduction due to traffic, to-
tooning phenomenon. Platooning is an important phenomenon tal queuing delay, and traffic density. Catbagan and Nakamura
that has crucial implications on traffic operation and quality of [7] recommended also follower density as a performance mea-
service on two-lane highways. The amount of platooning on sure for two-lane expressways in Japan. In this study, density
two-lane highways is more likely to be a function of traffic flow was calculated as the flow rate divided by the average spot speed
in the direction of travel, opposing traffic flow, percentage of at the detector location. Catbagan and Nakamura [8] recom-
heavy vehicles, percent no-passing zones, standard deviation mended to develop a more logical and realistic method of iden-
of free flow speeds and other variables. The paper uses three pla- tifying followers. So, a more logical definition of a follower can
tooning variables; flow rate in the direction of travel, opposing be stated as ‘‘a vehicle traveling below its desired speed due to
flow rate and percentage of heavy vehicle. The associations be- the presence of a relatively slower lead vehicle’’. Al-Kaisy and
tween these three platooning variables and performance mea- Freedman [9] suggested Percent Impeded (PI) as a new perfor-
sures were examined graphically, and statistically using mance measure for two-lane highways. This measure is based
correlation and regression analyses. Furthermore, threshold on segregating the impeded vehicles in a platoon from the ‘‘hap-
values for different levels-of-service were proposed, based on py to follow’’ vehicles. ‘‘Happy to follow’’ refers to vehicles that
the best performance measure found. are in platoon yet are driving at their desired speed; they do not
wish to be driving faster.
2. Background studies
3. Performance measures examined
The primary level of service (LOS) measure for two-lane high-
ways, Percent-Time-Spent-Following (PTSF), was first intro- The following seven performance measures were investigated
duced in 1985 Highway Capacity Manual and was called in the paper.
then Percent-Time-Delayed (PTD) [10]. Although, PTSF con-
siders a very appropriate performance measure as it well re-  Average Travel Speed (ATS): In every version of the HCM,
lates to the platooning phenomenon, a major determinant of speed has been used as a performance measure for two-lane
performance on two-lane highways, it cannot be easily esti- highways. Average Travel Speed (ATS) is a good choice for
mated in the field. Therefore, the HCM 2000 [1] suggests esti- a performance measure as it relates well to road user per-
mating the PTSF as the percentage of vehicles traveling with ceptions of the quality of traffic flow.
headways less than three seconds (the 3-s rule). Few recent  Average Travel Speed of Passenger Cars (ATSPC): Passen-
studies investigated the relationship between the 3-s rule mea- ger car speeds tend to be more sensitive to increase in con-
sure and the HCM PTSF estimates using field data. Luttinen gestion than heavy vehicle speeds [11]. However, this
[2] at the Helsinki University of Technology collected data measure does not have a reference point for across-site com-
from 20 two-lane highway sites in Finland. The data were used parisons [12]. Same limitation is also valid in the case of
to create a model to estimate the percent headways less than ATS.
Evaluation of performance measures for rural two-lane roads in Egypt 247

 Average Travel Speed as a Percentage of Free-Flow Speed Headway data could be used to estimate Pp using headway
(ATS/FFS): It indicates the average speed reduction due platoon definition. According to this platoon definition, vehi-
to interaction with other vehicles. Therefore, an increase cles in a platoon primarily involve those that are impeded by
in vehicle interaction will result in a lower percentage slower vehicles ahead as well as those that travel very close
of ATS/FFS and a lower level of service. This perfor- to their desired speeds (happy-to-follow). Platoon leaders are
mance measure addresses the reference point issue related used here as a representative sample of slow-moving vehicles
to ATS and ATSPC. The free-flow speed could differ to estimate the average speed of slow-moving vehicles. Distri-
greatly from site-to-site, thus using free-flow speed as a bution of desired speeds can be established using speed data of
point of reference could allow fair across-site compari- vehicle traveling under free conditions including of course pla-
sons [12]. toon leaders. The average speed of slow-moving vehicles along
 ATSPC as a Percentage of Free-Flow Speed of Passenger with the distribution of desired speeds can then be used to
Cars (ATSPC/FFSPC): This measure is similar to the previ- determine the percentage of vehicles with desired speeds higher
ous measure except that only cars are considered in the than the average speed of slow-moving vehicles. This percent-
speed measurements. This measure is likely to be more sen- age is then used to derive the probability Pi. This approach is
sitive to increases in congestion than ATS/FFS as speeds of based on the assumption that the distribution of desired speeds
passenger car are more affected by high traffic volumes than for vehicles in platoons is the same as that for vehicles outside
speeds of heavy vehicle [6]. platoons [9]. Fig. 1 shows the probability Pi assuming a normal
 Percent Followers (PF): Percent followers represent the distribution for desired speeds.
percentage of vehicles with short headways in the traffic
stream. This performance measure can easily be measured 4. Data collection and preparation
in the field by using a headway cut-off value of 3 s, as rec-
ommended by the HCM [1]. The scope of this research focuses on the intercity rural two-
lane roads in Egypt. Therefore the analysis of this paper used
The main disadvantage of using percent followers as a sole eight sites from two-lane roads in Minoufiya governorate. The
performance measure is that it does not accurately reflect the selection of the study sites encompasses all rural two-lane
effect of traffic level, which is an important performance crite- roads inside Minoufiya governorate. All roads have a posted
rion in the HCM quality of service concept. Theoretically, low speed limit of 60 km/h. The chosen sites are located on straight
traffic levels could still have high percent followers if speed sections with level terrain to avoid the effect of the longitudinal
variation is relatively high and passing opportunities are lim- gradient, and far from the influence of intersections, driveways
ited. Therefore, the use of percent followers alone could be and horizontal curves. Also, the chosen sites have relatively
misleading [13]. similar geometry characteristics (pavement and shoulders
widths). The average pavement width is about 7 m and the
 Follower Density (FD): Follower density is the number of average shoulder width is about 1.5 m.
followers in a directional traffic stream over a unit length, Roadside automatic traffic counters were used to collect the
typically one kilometer or one mile. The first use of this traffic and speed data used in this paper. Speed and traffic data
measure was reported by Van As [4] in South Africa. The collection were carried out in working days, during daylight
major advantages of using follower density are accounting hours. During all data collection periods, the weather was clear
for both the freedom to maneuver and the degree of conges- and the pavement was dry and in a good condition. Data col-
tion, through the percent followers and the density, respec- lection duration, vehicular counts, overall percentage of heavy
tively. Furthermore, it is compatible with density that is the vehicles, maximum flow rates per direction and maximum
service measure for basic freeway sections and multi-lane directional split ratio at the study sites during the data collec-
highways [1]. Follower Density (FD) is calculated from tion durations are provided in Table 1.
the following equations: Data set at each direction of travel on each site was divided
into 5-min intervals. In each interval, vehicle counts were mul-
Density ðDÞ ¼ flow rate ðQÞ=average travel speed ðATSÞ ð1Þ tiplied by twelve to convert them into flow rates. The average
Follower Density ðFDÞ ¼ density ðDÞ  Percent Followers ðPFÞ ð2Þ

 Percent Impeded (PI): This measure was introduced in


2008 by Al-Kaisy and Durbin [14] with the name of Per-
cent Following. In 2010 Al-Kaisy and Freedman [9]
renamed this measure to percent of vehicle impeded in
the traffic stream (PI). PI can be calculated from the fol-
lowing equation:

PI ¼ PP  Pi ð3Þ

where Pp is the probability of a vehicle being part of a


vehicular platoon using time headway definition of platoon
(certain cut-off value (usually 3-s)) and Pi is the probability
of a vehicle being impeded so traveling at a speed that is less Figure 1 Theoretical speed distributions with probability pi
than the desired speed. representation [9].
248 I.H. Hashim, T.A. Abdel-Wahed

Table 1 Data collection durations and vehicular counts, percentage of heavy vehicles, directional split ratio and maximum directional
flow rate.
Site Duration of data Traffic counts in both Overall percentage of Max. directional 5- Maximum
No. collection (hours) directions (vehicles) heavy vehicles (%) min. flow rate (vph) directional split
ratio (%)
1 5.00 1670 5.2 348 57
2 8.00 2916 4.1 360 52
3 8.50 3051 4.3 372 52
4 8.75 3437 4.4 420 52
5 8.00 7430 3.3 972 51
6 8.00 3572 3.0 432 54
7 8.00 4005 2.0 564 53
8 8.25 4139 2.2 588 53

travel speed was equal to the output mean speed. The average 5. Relationships between performance measures and platooning
travel speed of passenger car was obtained when all classes variables
were excluded except passenger cars. The free flow speed was
calculated by averaging the speed of all vehicles traveling with The relationships between the examined seven performance
headways greater than eight seconds, according to Al-Kaisy measures and traffic flow in the same direction of travel were
and Karjala [12]. The measure of percent followers was calcu- plotted. Example of these relationships is presented in Fig. 3,
lated using the HCM procedure for estimating the PTSF sur- for one of the study sites, for one direction of travel. Other
rogate measure, i.e. the percentage of vehicles traveling with sites showed relatively similar patterns.
headways less than three seconds [1]. The follower density Several issues can be noticed by observing the plots pre-
was obtained based on Eqs. (1) and (2). Percent impeded sented in Fig. 3:
was calculated according to Eq. (3).
Fig. 2 presents an example of the main relationships of traf-  For the relationship between flow rate and the two average
fic flow parameters at one of the study sites for one direction; travel speeds (ATS, ATSPC), the general hypothesis is as
other sites show relatively similar patterns. The figure shows flow increases the average speed will decrease. These rela-
the three relationships (Average travel speed (ATS)–Density), tionships are consistent with the general expectation.
(Flow Rate–ATS) and (Flow Rate–Density). The relationships  For the relationship between traffic flow and average travel
show that the traffic stream is in un-congested state, as these speed as a percent of free-flow speed for all vehicles (ATS/
roads usually carry relatively low traffic volumes. From these FFS) as well as for passenger cars (ATSPC/FFSPC), the
relationships, it is clear that the variation of ATS with traffic hypothesis is as flow increases the speed ratios decrease. It
volume is relatively low. However, the variation of density is obvious that the relationship is consistent with the general
with traffic volume is much clearer and proportional. expectation.

100 100

80 80
ATS (Km/h)
ATS (Km/h)

60 60

40 40

20 20

0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 100 200 300 400
Density (veh/km) 5-min. Flow Rate (vph)
5-min. Flow Rate (vph)

400

300

200

100

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Density (veh/km)

Figure 2 Traffic stream relationships for one study site, at one direction of travel.
Evaluation of performance measures for rural two-lane roads in Egypt 249

100 100

80 80

ATSpc (Km/h)
ATS (Km/h) 60 60

40 40

20
20
0
0
0 100 200 300 400
0 100 200 300 400
5-min. Flow Rate (vph)
5-min. Flow Rate (vph)

ATS/FFS ATSpc/FFSpc 0.6


1.2

0.4
0.8

PF
0.2
0.4

0
0
0 100 200 300 400
0 100 200 300 400
5-min. Flow Rate (vph)
5-min. Flow Rate (vph)

2.5 0.3

2
0.2
1.5
FD

PI

1
0.1
0.5

0 0
0 100 200 300 400 0 100 200 300 400
5-min. Flow Rate (vph) 5-min. Flow Rate (vph)

Figure 3 Relationships between 5-min directional flow rate and different performance measures for one study site, at one direction of
travel.

 For the relationship between the percent followers (PF) and no obvious trends were observed, as in Fig. 4, unlike the case
traffic flow, the hypothesis is that as traffic flow increases of Fig. 3.
the percent followers will also increase. The relationship Finally the relationships of the performance measures with
exhibits a positive trend consistent with the hypothesis. the third platooning variable, percentage of heavy vehicles,
 For the relationship between the Follower Density (FD) were also examined, at the same study site, as in Fig. 5.
and traffic flow, the hypothesis is as flow increases the fol- According to the plots in this figure, no clear relationships ex-
lower density will also increase. It is obvious that the rela- isted between all of the measures and the heavy vehicle percent
tionship is consistent with the general expectation. especially for percent followers, follower density and percent
Moreover this trend is stronger and more consistent than impeded measures. However, ATS, ATSPC, ATS/FFS and
the trends exhibited in the previous relationships. ATSPC/FFSPC measures have a weak downward trend.
 The last relationship is between traffic flow and Percent For all studied cases, it was evident that the relationships of
Impeded (PI). The hypothesis is as flow increases the value performance measures with opposing flow rate and percentage
of PI will also increase. The general trend is slightly consis- of heavy vehicles showed lower correlations than that with
tent with the hypothesis. flow rate, as shown in Figs. 3–5.

The relationships of the performance measures with oppos- 6. Statistical analysis


ing traffic flow were also examined using graphical plots. Fig. 4
shows those relationships at the same study site. ATS, ATSPC This section discusses the correlation and regression statistical
and speed ratios ATS/FFS and ATSPC/FFSPC exhibited rela- analyses describing the relationships between the three pla-
tively the same previous trend shown in Fig. 3. For the plots tooning variables: flow, opposing flow and percent of heavy
of percent followers, follower density and percent impeded, vehicles, and the examined seven performance measures. Addi-
250 I.H. Hashim, T.A. Abdel-Wahed

100 100

ATSpc (Km/h)
80 80

ATS (Km/h)
60 60

40 40

20 20

0 0
0 100 200 300 400 0 100 200 300 400

5-min. Opposing Flow Rate (vph) 5-min. Opposing Flow Rate (vph)

ATS/FFS ATSpc/FFSpc 0.6


1.2
0.4
0.8

PF
0.2
0.4

0 0
0 100 200 300 400 0 100 200 300 400
5-min. Opposing Flow Rate (vph) 5-min. Opposing Flow Rate (vph)

2.5 0.3

2
0.2
1.5
FD

PI

1
0.1
0.5

0 0
0 100 200 300 400 0 100 200 300 400
5-min. Opposing Flow Rate (vph) 5-min. Opposing Flow Rate (vph)

Figure 4 Relationships between 5-min opposing traffic flow rate and different performance measures for one study site, at one direction
of travel.

tionally, threshold values for different levels-of-service were lated measures have correlation coefficients with signs that are
proposed, based on the best performance measure found. in the expected directions, the majority of them have insignif-
icant correlations with traffic flow rate. Another important
6.1. Correlation analysis observation is that the two measures ATS and ATS/FFS had
approximately the same correlation to traffic flow platooning
This section is devoted to describe the correlations between the variable as well as in the case of ATSPC and ATSPC/FFSPC.
three platooning variables and the performance measures. This Moreover, the correlations with ATS and ATS/FFS are usu-
could help for better understanding of the association between ally higher than those with ATSPC and ATSPC/FFSPC. This
performance measures and platooning variables. Table 2 suggests that restricting speed-related measures to passenger
shows the correlation coefficients between performance mea- cars does not much improve the sensitivity to platooning
sures and traffic flow rate at individual study sites, at each variables.
direction of travel (e.g. NB, SB). Underlined values represent Table 3 shows the correlation analysis between opposing
correlations that have inconsistent signs with the intuitive rela- traffic flow rate and different performance measures at individ-
tionships between flow rate and performance measures. ual study sites, for each travel direction. Underlined values
According to Table 2, the majority of the signs of the correla- represent correlations that have inconsistent signs with the
tion coefficients are in the expected direction. For example, the hypothesized logical relationships between opposing flow rate
Follower Density (FD), Percent Followers (PF) and Percent and performance measures. As in Table 3, performance mea-
Impeded (PI) showed positive correlations with flow rate. This sures and opposing flow rate exhibited relatively lower correla-
means that follower density, percent followers and percent im- tions compared with flow rate. In general, the signs of the
peded tend to increase as traffic flow rate increases. Alterna- correlation coefficients are in the expected direction. The
tively, speed-related variables (ATC, ATSPC, ATS/FFS, and majority of the correlation coefficients are insignificant at the
ATSPC/FFSPC) showed negative correlations with traffic flow 5% level.
rate, meaning the higher the traffic the lower the speed. Also, Table 4 shows the correlation analysis between percentage
follower density followed by percent followers and percent im- of heavy vehicles and different performance measures at indi-
peded showed the highest and most significant correlations vidual study sites, for each travel direction. Underlined values
with traffic flow rate respectively. Although most of speed-re- have signs that are inconsistent with the hypothesized logical
Evaluation of performance measures for rural two-lane roads in Egypt 251

100 100

80 80

ATSpc (Km/h)
ATS (Km/h)
60 60

40 40

20 20

0 0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
% HV % HV

ATS/FFS ATSpc/FFSpc 0.6


1.2

0.4
0.8

PF
0.2
0.4

0
0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
% HV
% HV

2.5 0.3

2
0.2
1.5
FD

PI

1
0.1
0.5

0 0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
% HV % HV

Figure 5 Relationships between HV percentage and different performance measures for one study site, at one direction of travel.

Table 2 Correlation coefficients between performance measures and directional flow rate for each direction of study sites.
Site No. 1 2 3 4
Performance measure NB SB NB SB NB SB NB SB
ATS 0.20 0.08 0.10 0.17 0.11 0.20 0.15 0.21*
ATS/FFS 0.19 0.08 0.10 0.17 0.11 0.20 0.16 0.21*
ATSPC 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.03 0.09 0.12 0.17 0.12
ATSPC/FFSPC 0.03 0.06 0.09 0.14 0.08 0.12 0.17 0.13
PF 0.30* 0.48* 0.26* 0.54* 0.50* 0.51* 0.28* 0.59*
FD 0.69* 0.69* 0.61* 0.75* 0.72* 0.78* 0.80* 0.70*
PI 0.45* 0.34* 0.27* 0.40* 0.44* 0.30* 0.17 0.43*
Site No. 5 6 7 8
Performance measure NB SB EB WB EB WB NB SB
*
ATS 0.22 0.04 0.04 0.00 0.20 0.14 0.13 0.11
ATS/FFS 0.23 0.04 0.03 0.00 0.20* 0.14 0.14 0.10
ATSPC 0.22 0.05 0.08 0.05 0.17 0.00 0.10 0.15
ATSPC/FFSPC 0.22 0.05 0.08 0.05 0.16 0.00 0.10 0.14
PF 0.67* 0.50* 0.41* 0.57* 0.44* 0.44* 0.28* 0.59*
FD 0.79* 0.87* 0.69* 0.84* 0.83* 0.78* 0.66* 0.73*
PI 0.58* 0.38* 0.33* 0.53* 0.15 0.26* 0.44* 0.34*
Underlined correlations represent counterintuitive relationships between flow rate and performance measures.
*
Correlation is significant at the 5% level (2-tailed).
252 I.H. Hashim, T.A. Abdel-Wahed

Table 3 Correlation coefficients between performance measures and opposing traffic flow rate for each direction of study sites.
Site No. 1 2 3 4
Performance measure NB SB NB SB NB SB NB SB
* *
ATS 0.02 0.07 0.22 0.09 0.03 0.08 0.26 0.18
ATS/FFS 0.01 0.07 0.22* 0.09 0.03 0.08 0.26* 0.18
ATSPC 0.19 0.06 0.16 0.12 0.00 0.06 0.22* 0.15
ATSPC/FFSPC 0.19 0.06 0.16 0.19 0.00 0.06 0.23* 0.15
PF 0.04 0.22 0.13 0.09 0.04 0.02 0.17 0.29*
FD 0.11 0.15 0.13 0.00 0.04 0.07 0.24* 0.22*
PI 0.15 0.24 0.07 0.17 0.02 0.06 0.14 0.22*
Site No. 5 6 7 8
Performance measure NB SB EB WB EB WB NB SB
ATS 0.15 0.36 0.04 0.28 0.20 0.06 0.13 0.25
ATS/FFS 0.15 0.37 0.03 0.28 0.20 0.05 0.14 0.26
ATSPC 0.09 0.32 0.08 0.18 0.17 0.03 0.10 0.28
ATSPC/FFSPC 0.08 0.32 0.08 0.18 0.16 0.03 0.10 0.28
PF 0.05 0.16 0.41* 0.02 0.44* 0.02 0.28* 0.26
FD 0.00 0.12 0.69* 0.02 0.83* 0.03 0.66* 0.34
PI 0.01 0.06 0.33* 0.00 0.15 0.00 0.44* 0.18
Underlined correlations represent counterintuitive relationships between opposing flow rate and performance measures.
*
Correlation is significant at the 5% level (2-tailed).

Table 4 Correlation coefficients between performance measures and percentage of heavy vehicles for each direction of study sites.
Site No. 1 2 3 4
Performance measure NB SB NB SB NB SB NB SB
* *
ATS 0.09 0.04 0.15 0.04 0.25 0.28 0.19 0.06
ATS/FFS 0.09 0.04 0.14 0.04 0.25* 0.28* 0.19 0.06
ATSPC 0.01 0.12 0.10 0.13 0.13 0.09 0.09 0.01
ATSPC/FFSPC 0.01 0.12 0.10 0.15 0.13 0.09 0.08 0.01
PF 0.02 0.06 0.10 0.02 0.14 0.05 0.10 0.00
FD 0.01 0.11 0.08 0.06 0.20 0.02 0.01 0.00
PI 0.02 0.01 0.08 0.06 0.17 0.07 0.15 0.07
Site No. 5 6 7 8
Performance measure NB SB EB WB EB WB NB SB
ATS 0.04 0.12 0.03 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.07 0.05
ATS/FFS 0.03 0.12 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.07 0.05
ATSPC 0.02 0.03 0.12 0.05 0.14 0.16 0.19 0.10
ATSPC/FFSPC 0.02 0.03 0.12 0.05 0.14 0.17 0.19 0.10
PF 0.02 0.16 0.10 0.04 0.06 0.15 0.05 0.11
FD 0.06 0.12 0.04 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.11
PI 0.11 0.19 0.12 0.04 0.11 0.21* 0.00 0.05
Underlined correlations represent counterintuitive relationships between percentage of HV and performance measures.
*
Correlation is significant at the 5% level (2-tailed).

relationships between percentage of heavy vehicles and perfor-  In general, flow rate followed by opposing flow rate demon-
mance measures. According to Table 4, performance measures strated higher correlations with almost all performance
and percentage of heavy vehicles exhibited very low correla- measures compared to percentage of heavy vehicles. The
tions compared with flow rate. The vast majority of the corre- correlations of percentage of heavy vehicles and perfor-
lation coefficients are insignificant at the 5% level. mance measures indicated either illogical relationships or
Another correlation analysis was conducted between pla- very week associations.
tooning variables and the seven performance measures using  The highest and significant correlations with flow and
data from all study sites in one data set. Table 5 shows the cor- opposing flow were found in the following order: follower
relation results. The most important observations that can be density, percent followers, percent impeded, ATS, and
discerned upon examining Table 5 are: ATSPC respectively. ATS/FFS and ATSPC/FFSPC showed
Evaluation of performance measures for rural two-lane roads in Egypt 253

Table 5 Correlation coefficients between performance measures and the three platooning variables for all data sets.
Performance measures Platooning variables
Flow Opposing flow Percentage of HV
* *
ATS 0.32 0.31 0.02
ATS/FFS 0.04 0.06 0.07*
ATSPC 0.27* 0.28* 0.06
ATSPC/FFSPC 0.00 0.00 0.00
PF 0.54* 0.33* 0.04
FD 0.87* 0.51* 0.04
PI 0.47* 0.28* 0.03
Underlined correlations represent counterintuitive relationships between platooning variables and performance measures.
*
Correlation is significant at the 5% level (2-tailed).

either illogical relationships or week correlations. ATS/FFS Having applied these criteria the best models were selected.
had a week but significant correlation with percentage of Details of the regression analysis of these models are shown in
heavy vehicle. Table 6. The table shows one model for each performance
measure; no model to fit the criteria was found for ATSPC/
FFSPC measure. However, as in Table 6, the model between
6.2. Regression analysis Follower Density (FD) as a performance measure, and follow
and opposing flow as platooning variables, was found to be the
To gain more insights into the strengths and limitations of best one. This model has a much higher coefficient of determi-
each of the proposed performance measure, a stepwise linear nation R2. It is also found significant at the 95% confidence le-
regression analysis was conducted using data from all study vel as the significance of F statistic < 0.001. Also the
sites as one data set. The objective is to produce the best rela- coefficients of the platooning variables (flow and opposing
tionship between each performance measure and platooning flow) were significantly different from zero at the 95% confi-
variables. The criteria used to assess the accuracy of the pro- dence level as the t-test statistics equal 54.1 and 4.5 respec-
duced models were: tively. This model has a logical explanation for the effect of
platooning variables (flow and opposing flow) on performance
 Each of the independent variables (Flow, Opposing flow measure, follower density. The positive signs of the flow and
and% HV) should have regression coefficients that are sig- opposing flow mean that follower density tends to increase
nificantly different from zero (based on the significance level as flow and opposing flow increase. In other words, opera-
of the t-test), and whose sign should logically explain the tional performance tends to decrease as total traffic flow in-
effect of this variable on the dependant variable (i.e. perfor- creases. This model can be written as follows:
mance measure).
FD ¼ 1:81 þ 0:009311 Flow þ 0:0000779 OpposingFlow ð4Þ
 The coefficient of determination R2 must be as high as pos-
sible and significant at the 95% confidence level. R2 values It can be seen that the best model, in Table 6, was selected
only give a guide to the ‘‘goodness-of-fit’’ and do not indi- on the basis of the coefficient of determination R2 as well as t-
cate whether an association between the variables is statis- test results. However, the t-test results showed that the major
tically significant. This is determined by the significance contributing variable is flow and the contribution of opposing
level of the F statistic. For a confidence level of 95%, if flow could be very limited. Therefore another model consider-
the F statistic is associated with a probability of <0.05, ing only platooning variable (flow) was developed. Details of
there is a statistically significant association between depen- the regression analysis of this model are shown in Table 7, also
dent and independent variables. it can be written as follows:

Table 6 Results of the best regression models between different performance measures and platooning variables.
Variable Performance ATS ATS/FFS ATSPC ATSPC/FFSPC PF FD PI
measure
Constant Coefficient 66.97 0.792 67.54 No model was found 0.091 1.81 0.04296
t (p-value) 116 (0.00) 265 (0.00) 94.75 (0.00) to fit the required 12.2 (0.00) 27.1 (0.00) 11.1 (0.00)
Flow Coefficient 0.0172 0.0172 criteria 0.000583 0.009311 0.000294
t (p-value) 7.5 (0.00) 6.1 (0.00) 19.8 (0.00) 54.1 (0.00) 20.3 (0.00)
Opposing flow Coefficient 0.0154 0.0173 0.0000732 0.000779
t (p-value) 6.8 (0.00) 6.2 (0.00) 2.5 (0.01) 4.5 (0.00)
% HV Coefficient 0.132
t (p-value) 2.726 (0.006)
Goodness-of-fit
R2 0.13 0.01 0.10 0.30 0.753 0.22
F (p-value) 108.6 (0.00) 7.43 (0.006) 79.6 (0.00) 312 (0.00) 2222 (0.00) 412 (0.00)
254 I.H. Hashim, T.A. Abdel-Wahed

Observed Linear Quadratic


Table 7 Results of the linear regression analysis between
14.00
follower density and directional flow rate.
12.00
Variable Coefficient T p-Value R2 F (p-value)
Constant 1.093 27.8 0.00 0.75 4364 (0.00) 10.00
Flow 0.009723 66.1 0.00 8.00

FD
6.00
FD ¼ 1:093 þ 0:009723 Flow ð5Þ
4.00
Based on Tables 6 and 7, the variations in the coefficient of 2.00
determination R2 between competing models in Eqs. (4) and
(5) was very small, very little accuracy would be lost (a de- 0.00
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
crease of 0.003 in R2) if considering only the flow in the direc-
tion of travel as a platooning variable. This would reduce the 5-min. Flow Rate (vph)
data collection required to assess the relationship between
Figure 6 Relationships between follower density and flow in the
operational performance and flow rate, and make the model
direction of travel.
simpler for practitioners to use. This model could be presented
graphically, as in Fig. 6.
However, the scatter plots of the observed values, in Fig. 6,
indicate that the best relationship could not be linear. There- Table 8 Results of the quadratic regression analysis between
fore, many other mathematical forms for the independent var- follower density and directional flow rate.
iable (traffic flow) were considered. The quadratic form was
Variable Coefficient T p-Value R2 F (p-value)
found to display the best relationship between follower density
and flow rate, as in Eq. (6) and Table 8. The model has a very Flow 0.001692 11.62 0.00 0.89 5599 (0.00)
Flow2 1.193 · 105 32.71 0.00
high coefficient of determination R2 as well as significant t-test
statistics. This model was also presented graphically in Fig. 6.
The figure shows that there is a good conformance between the
observed and estimated values, in most cases, based on the Spent-Following (PTSF), to assess the operational perfor-
quadratic form. mance and LOS on rural two-lane roads, as explained earlier.
Consequently, the relationship between follower density and
FD ¼ 0:001692Flow þ 1:193  105 Flow2 ð6Þ
percent followers, using data from all study sites as one data
In general, the results of the statistical analysis showed that set, was developed, as in the following equation
follower density has the strongest association with platooning
FD ¼ 0:96PF þ 12:90 PF2 ðR2 ¼ 0:81Þ ð7Þ
variables in rural two-lane roads in Egypt. Also, among the
three platooning variables investigated, traffic flow in the Based on this relationship, the follower densities that corre-
direction of travel showed the highest correlation with perfor- spond to the HCM threshold levels-of service values were
mance measures. Such findings agree with those reported by determined and presented as shown in Table 9. The table
other researchers, such as Al-Kaisy and Karjala [12]. More- shows that the follower density can vary from level-of-service
over, the best relationship between follower density and direc- to another for a certain percent followers.
tional traffic flow rate was found to follow the quadratic form. Although the proposed thresholds are still considered preli-
minary, they might help traffic engineers in Egypt to assess
6.3. Proposed level-of-service (LOS) thresholds in Egypt traffic operational performance using criteria that reflect the
local conditions of the area under study. Also, it is hoped that,
The analysis of this research was employed to propose suitable following further research, the core of knowledge in this area,
threshold values for different levels-of-service for rural roads using data from other Egyptian roads, will mature and a com-
in Egypt based on the follower density, the best measure mon approach to define levels-of-service for different road
found. Considering that, the HCM proposes using percent fol- facilities can be developed.
lowers (PF) as a surrogate measure, instead of Percent-Time-
7. Summary and conclusions

Table 9 Proposed level-of-services thresholds in rural two- The primary objective of this paper is to investigate the rela-
lane roads in Egypt. tionship between operational performance measures on rural
LOS HCM*, Percent-Time-Spent- Egypt, Follower two-lane roads in Egypt and platooning phenomenon. A wide
Following (PTSF) Density (FD) variety of performance measures were defined and calculated
A 640.00 62.4
using traffic data from eight rural two-lane study sites in Mino-
B >40–55 >2.4–4.3 ufiya governorate, Egypt. The measures are average travel
C >55–70 >4.3–6.8 speed, average travel speed of passenger cars, average travel
D >70–85 >6.8–9.9 speed as a percentage of free-flow speed, average travel speed
E >85.00 >9.9 of passenger cars as a percentage of free-flow speed of passen-
*
The HCM LOS criteria are for two-lane highways class II [1], ger cars, percent followers, follower density, and percent im-
which is the same category of the roads under study. peded. The platooning phenomenon was represented by
three variables; flow in the direction of travel, opposing flow
Evaluation of performance measures for rural two-lane roads in Egypt 255

and percentage of heavy vehicles. The investigations that were Record 1776, Transportation Research Board, National
carried out graphically and statistically reached the following Research Council, Washington, DC, 2001, pp. 52–59.
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Capacity Manual 2000 Analysis Procedures for Two-lane
 Correlations were found between examined performance Highways, Transportation Research Record 1802,
Transportation Research Board, National Research Council,
measures and platooning variables. However, follower den-
Washington, DC, 2002, pp. 125–132.
sity, percent follower and percent impeded were found to [4] C. Van As, The Development of an Analysis Method for the
have strong correlations to platooning variables. On the Determination of Level of Service of Two-lane Undivided
contrary, speed-related measures; average travel speed, Highways in South Africa, Project Summary, South African
average travel speed of passenger cars, average travel speed National Roads Agency, Limited, 2003.
as a percentage of free-flow speed, average travel speed of [5] A. Al-Kaisy, C. Durbin, Estimating percent time spent following
passenger cars as a percentage of free-flow speed of passen- on two-lane highways: field evaluation of new methodologies, in:
ger cars were found to have weak correlations to platooning Proc. of 86th Annual Meeting of Transportation Research
variables. Board, Washington, DC, 2007.
 Among the platooning variables investigated, traffic flow in [6] W. Brilon, F. Weiser, Two-lane Rural Highways: The German
Experience, Transportation Research Record 1988,
the direction of travel has the highest correlation with the
Transportation Research Board, National Research Council,
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results also provided no evidence that the percentage of [7] J.L. Catbagan, H. Nakamura, Evaluation of Performance
heavy vehicles have any obvious correlations with perfor- Measures for Two-lane Expressways in Japan, Transportation
mance measures. Research Record 1988, Transportation Research Board,
 Regression analysis was used to produce the best relation- National Research Council, Washington, DC, 2006, pp. 111–
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2008.
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[9] A. Al-Kaisy, Z. Freedman, Estimating Performance on Two-
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July 25–29, 2006.
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[13] M. Shawky, I. Hashim, Impact of horizontal alignment on
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