Enero Febrero Marzo Abril Mayo Junio Agosto

2012 73 69 68 64 65 98 114
2013 80 81 83 69 91 140 152
2014 95 66 81 100 93 116 195

Gráfica de series de tempo

221
201
181
161
141
121
101
81
61
41
21
1
ro ro zo ri l ay
o o to br
e re
br
e br
e
e re ar Ab ni os b
En b M M Ju Ag em ctu
em em
Fe pt O vi ci
Se No Di

2012 2013 2014

Septembre Octubre Noviembre Diciembre
122 74 72 153
170 97 78 177
194 101 80 189
 Demand Demanda
Ventas x-xm y-ym x-x 2
a Desestacionalizada
1 ### 6760.75
2 ### 6802.73
3 ### 6844.72
4 ### 6886.71
5 ### 6928.70
6 ### 6970.69
7 ### 6708.33 -24 -1020.40816327 576
8 ### 6791.67 -23 6000 529
9 10000 6833.33 -22 10000 484
10 12000 6833.33 -21 12000 441
11 14000 6875.00 -20 14000 400
12 ### 6958.33 -19 8000 361
13 ### 6833.33 -18 3000 324
14 ### 6750.00 -17 4000 289
15 ### 6916.67 -16 3000 256
16 ### 6958.33 -15 5000 225
17 ### 7000.00 -14 5000 196
18 ### 7166.67 -13 7000 169
19 ### 7208.33 -12 3000 144
20 ### 7208.33 -11 8000 121
21 12000 7375.00 -10 12000 100
22 11000 7416.67 -9 11000 81
23 16000 7291.67 -8 16000 64
24 10000 7208.33 -7 10000 49
25 ### 7333.33 -6 2000 36
26 ### 7583.33 -5 5000 25
27 ### 7791.67 -4 6000 16
28 ### 8083.33 -3 3000 9
29 ### 8333.33 -2 4000 4
30 ### 8333.33 -1 6000 1
31 ### 8375.00 0 7000 0
32 10000 8458.33 1 10000 1
33 15000 8333.33 2 15000 4
34 15000 8208.33 3 15000 9
35 18000 8208.33 4 18000 16
36 ### 8291.67 5 8000 25
37 ### 8541.67 6 5000 36
38 ### 8916.67 7 4000 49
39 ### 9125.00 8 4000 64
40 ### 9208.33 9 2000 81
41 ### 9333.33 10 5000 100
42 ### 9583.33 11 7000 121
43 12000 9750.00 12 12000 144
44 14000 9666.67 13 14000 169
45 16000 9541.67 14 16000 196
46 16000 9500.00 15 16000 225
47 20000 9583.33 16 20000 256
48 12000 9625.00 17 12000 289
49 ### 9416.67 18 5000 324
50 ### 9083.33 19 2000 361
51 ### 9000.00 20 3000 400
52 ### 9250.00 21 2000 441
53 ### 9500.00 22 7000 484
54 ### 9416.67 23 6000 529
55 ### 9041.67 24 8000 576
56 10000 9070.13
57 18000 9112.12
58 20000 9154.10
59 22000 9196.09
60 ### 9238.08

X 31
Y 8020.41
 formula tendencia nivel
factor estacional 12 ciclos 3
0.30
0.44
0.44
0.73
0.58
0.86
24489.7959 41.99 6718.76 1.04
-138000 41.99 6718.76 0.88
-220000 41.99 6718.76 1.46
-252000 41.99 6718.76 1.76
-280000 41.99 6718.76 2.04
-152000 41.99 6718.76 1.15
-54000 41.99 6718.76 0.44
-68000 41.99 6718.76 0.59
-48000 41.99 6718.76 0.43
-75000 41.99 6718.76 0.72
-70000 41.99 6718.76 0.71
-91000 41.99 6718.76 0.98
-36000 41.99 6718.76 0.42
-88000 41.99 6718.76 1.11
-120000 41.99 6718.76 1.63
-99000 41.99 6718.76 1.48
-128000 41.99 6718.76 2.19
-70000 41.99 6718.76 1.39
-12000 41.99 6718.76 0.27
-25000 41.99 6718.76 0.66
-24000 41.99 6718.76 0.77
-9000 41.99 6718.76 0.37
-8000 41.99 6718.76 0.48
-6000 41.99 6718.76 0.72
0 41.99 6718.76 0.84
10000 41.99 6718.76 1.18
30000 41.99 6718.76 1.80
45000 41.99 6718.76 1.83
72000 41.99 6718.76 2.19
40000 41.99 6718.76 0.96
30000 41.99 6718.76 0.59
28000 41.99 6718.76 0.45
32000 41.99 6718.76 0.44
 18000 41.99 6718.76 0.22
50000 41.99 6718.76 0.54
77000 41.99 6718.76 0.73
144000 41.99 6718.76 1.23
182000 41.99 6718.76 1.45
224000 41.99 6718.76 1.68
240000 41.99 6718.76 1.68
320000 41.99 6718.76 2.09
204000 41.99 6718.76 1.25
90000 41.99 6718.76 0.53
38000 41.99 6718.76 0.22
60000 41.99 6718.76 0.33
42000 41.99 6718.76 0.22
154000 41.99 6718.76 0.74
138000 41.99 6718.76 0.64
192000 41.99 6718.76 0.88
1.10
1.98
2.18
2.39
0.87
Pronóstco Factores estacionales ciclos
3942.01879 0.42
4403.20774 0.47
4520.53508 0.48
4231.10558 0.45
5752.24333 0.61
7449.84009 0.79
8409.22101 0.88
10964.757 1.15
16429.4439 1.71
17260.1005 1.79
21151.379 2.18
10939.3139 1.12
 2012 2013 2014 2015
Ene 196 227 216 228 1 13
Feb 196 217 218 2 14
Mar 173 194 193 3 15
Abr 105 110 120 4 16
May 75 88 99 5 17
Jun 39 51 59 6 18
Jul 13 27 33 7 19
Ago 20 23 37 8 20
Sep 37 41 59 9 21
Oct 73 90 95 10 22
Nov 108 107 128 11 23
Dic 191 172 201 12 24
Prom 102.17 112.25 alpha betha gamma
MedProm 107.21 0.2 0.05 0.1
T0 0.42013889 ciclos 2
L0 112.039931 periodo 12
Demanda Nivel Tendencia Estacionalidad
Dt Lt Tt St Normalizado Ft 250
-11 2.01
-10 1.95 200

-9 1.73
150
-8 1.01
-7 0.76
100
-6 0.42
-5 0.18 50
-4 0.20
-3 0.36 0
1 2
-2 0.75
-1 0.98
0 112.04 0.42 1.65
1 196 109.50 0.27 1.99 1.99 225.69 1
2 196 107.89 0.18 1.94 1.94 214.35 2
3 173 106.48 0.10 1.72 1.72 186.75 3
4 105 106.07 0.07 1.01 1.01 107.55 4
5 75 104.63 0.00 0.76 0.76 80.78 5
6 39 102.36 -0.12 0.41 0.42 43.74 6
7 13 95.92 -0.43 0.18 0.18 18.82 7
8 20 96.54 -0.38 0.20 0.20 18.95 8
9 37 97.56 -0.31 0.36 0.36 34.50 9
10 73 97.37 -0.30 0.75 0.75 72.54 10
11 108 99.64 -0.17 0.99 0.99 95.37 11
12 191 102.66 -0.02 1.67 1.68 164.55 12
13 227 104.93 0.10 2.01 2.00 204.22 13
14 217 106.36 0.17 1.95 1.95 204.12 14
15 194 107.76 0.23 1.73 1.73 183.38 15
16 110 108.18 0.24 1.01 1.01 109.01 16
17 88 109.95 0.31 0.76 0.76 82.21 17
18 51 112.77 0.44 0.42 0.42 45.78 18
19 27 120.63 0.81 0.18 0.18 20.34 19
20 23 120.17 0.75 0.20 0.20 24.26 20
21 41 119.41 0.67 0.36 0.36 43.73 21
22 90 120.13 0.67 0.75 0.75 89.82 22
23 107 118.16 0.54 0.99 0.98 120.19 23
24 172 115.45 0.38 1.66 1.66 199.26 24
25 216 114.22 0.30 1.99 2.00 232.12 25
26 218 113.97 0.27 1.95 1.95 223.33 26
27 193 113.75 0.25 1.72 1.73 197.28 27
28 120 114.99 0.30 1.01 1.01 114.98 28
29 99 118.23 0.44 0.77 0.77 87.77 29
30 59 123.15 0.67 0.42 0.43 49.65 30
31 33 134.96 1.22 0.19 0.19 22.76 31
32 37 146.20 1.73 0.20 0.20 27.05 32
33 59 151.19 1.89 0.36 0.36 53.14 33
34 95 147.89 1.63 0.74 0.74 114.34 34
35 128 145.62 1.43 0.97 0.98 147.21 35
36 201 141.90 1.18 1.63 1.64 243.73 36
37 228 137.28 0.89 1.96 1.97 285.86 37
38 269.65 38
39 240.34 39
40 142.02 40
41 108.58 41
42 60.30 42
43 27.15 43
44 29.36 44
45 52.45 45
46 107.27 46
47 142.72 47
48 240.78 48
 Factores
Factores estacionales Promedios Normalizacion Periodo Periodo
estacionales

1.91 2.11 2.01 2.01 1 1.91 13

1.91 2.01 1.96 1.95 2 1.91 14
1.68 1.79 1.73 1.73 3 1.68 15
1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 4 1.01 16
0.72 0.81 0.76 0.76 5 0.72 17
0.37 0.47 0.42 0.42 6 0.37 18
0.12 0.25 0.18 0.18 7 0.12 19
0.19 0.21 0.20 0.20 8 0.19 20
0.35 0.37 0.36 0.36 9 0.35 21
0.69 0.81 0.75 0.75 10 0.69 22
1.01 0.96 0.99 0.98 11 1.01 23
1.79 1.54 1.66 1.65 12 1.79 24
TOTAL 12.04 12

Chart Title
250

200

150

100

50

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Col umn B Col umn C

AMARILLO DEMANDA REAL

VERDE PRONOSTICO
 Factores Promedio Normalizado
estacionales
2.11 2.01 2.01
2.01 1.96 1.95
1.79 1.73 1.73
1.01 1.01 1.01
0.81 0.76 0.76
0.47 0.42 0.42
0.25 0.18 0.18
0.21 0.20 0.20
0.37 0.36 0.36
0.81 0.75 0.75
0.96 0.99 0.98
1.54 1.66 1.65
Periodo Demanda Nivel Tendencia Factor Estacional Pronóstco
1 196 109.50 0.27 1.99 225.69
2 196 107.89 0.18 1.94 214.35
3 173 106.48 0.10 1.72 186.75
4 105 106.07 0.07 1.01 107.55
5 75 104.63 0.00 0.76 80.78
6 39 102.36 -0.12 0.42 43.74
7 13 95.92 -0.43 0.18 18.82
8 20 96.54 -0.38 0.20 18.95
9 37 97.56 -0.31 0.36 34.50
10 73 97.37 -0.30 0.75 72.54
11 108 99.64 -0.17 0.99 95.37
12 191 102.66 -0.02 1.68 164.55
13 227 104.93 0.10 2.00 204.22
14 217 106.36 0.17 1.95 204.12
15 194 107.76 0.23 1.73 183.38
16 110 108.18 0.24 1.01 109.01
17 88 109.95 0.31 0.76 82.21
18 51 112.77 0.44 0.42 45.78
19 27 120.63 0.81 0.18 20.34
20 23 120.17 0.75 0.20 24.26
21 41 119.41 0.67 0.36 43.73
22 90 120.13 0.67 0.75 89.82
23 107 118.16 0.54 0.98 120.19
24 172 115.45 0.38 1.66 199.26
25 216 114.22 0.30 2.00 232.12
26 218 113.97 0.27 1.95 223.33
27 193 113.75 0.25 1.73 197.28
28 120 114.99 0.30 1.01 114.98
29 99 118.23 0.44 0.77 87.77
30 59 123.15 0.67 0.43 49.65
31 33 134.96 1.22 0.19 22.76
32 37 146.20 1.73 0.20 27.05
33 59 151.19 1.89 0.36 53.14
34 95 147.89 1.63 0.74 114.34
35 128 145.62 1.43 0.98 147.21
36 201 141.90 1.18 1.64 243.73
37 285.86
38 236.22
39 238.15
40 240.07
41 242.00
42 243.93
43 245.85
44 247.78
45 249.71
46 251.63
47 253.56
48 255.49
 Demanda Demanda Error
Mes Mes
real Pronosticada
1 160 170 1 10 10 0.0625
2 150 165 2 15 15 0.1000
3 175 157 3 -18 18 0.1029
4 200 166 4 -34 34 0.1700
5 190 183 5 -7 7 0.0368
6 220 186 6 -34 34 0.1545
7 205 203 7 -2 2 0.0098
8 210 204 8 -6 6 0.0286
9 200 207 9 7 7 0.0350
10 220 203 10 -17 17 0.0773
MAPE 7.7734
MSE
 100 Pronóstico Real Error
225 1500 1550 -50 50
324 1400 1500 -100 100
1156 1700 1600 100 100
49 1750 1650 100 100
1156 1800 1700 100 100
4 Bias 150
36 MAD 45
49
289

338.8
 Factores Factores Factores
Periodo Periodo Periodo
Estacionales Estacionales Estacionales
1 0.42 5 0.61 9 1.71
2 0.47 6 0.79 10 1.79
3 0.48 7 0.88 11 2.18
4 0.45 8 1.15 12 1.12
Periodo Factor Estacional Periodo Factor Estacional Periodo Factor Estacional
1 0.30 21 1.63 23 0.54
2 0.44 22 1.48 24 0.73
3 0.44 23 2.19 25 1.23
4 0.73 24 1.39 26 1.45
5 0.58 25 0.27 27 1.68
6 0.86 26 0.66 28 1.68
7 1.04 27 0.77 29 2.09
8 0.88 28 0.37 30 1.25
9 1.46 29 0.48 31 0.53
10 1.76 30 0.72 32 0.22
11 2.04 31 0.84 33 0.33
12 1.15 32 1.18 34 0.22
13 0.44 33 1.80 35 0.74
14 0.59 34 1.83 36 0.64
15 0.43 35 2.19 37 0.88
16 0.72 36 0.96 38 1.10
17 0.71 37 0.59 39 1.98
18 0.98 38 0.45 40 2.18
19 0.42 39 0.44 41 2.39
20 1.11 40 0.22 0.87
 Demanda Demanda
Periodo Demanda Periodo Demanda Periodo
Desestacionalizada Desestacionalizada
7 7000 6708.33 31 7000 8375.00 1
8 6000 6791.67 32 10000 8458.33 2
9 10000 6833.33 33 15000 8333.33 3
10 12000 6833.33 34 15000 8208.33 4
11 14000 6875.00 35 18000 8208.33 5
12 8000 6958.33 36 8000 8291.67 6
13 3000 6833.33 37 5000 8541.67
14 4000 6750.00 38 4000 8916.67
15 3000 6916.67 39 4000 9125.00
16 5000 6958.33 40 2000 9208.33
17 5000 7000.00 41 5000 9333.33
18 7000 7166.67 42 7000 9583.33
19 3000 7208.33 43 12000 9750.00
20 8000 7208.33 44 14000 9666.67
21 12000 7375.00 45 16000 9541.67
22 11000 7416.67 46 16000 9500.00
23 16000 7291.67 47 20000 9583.33
24 10000 7208.33 48 12000 9625.00
25 2000 7333.33 49 5000 9416.67
26 5000 7583.33 50 2000 9083.33
27 6000 7791.67 51 3000 9000.00
28 3000 8083.33 52 2000 9250.00
29 4000 8333.33 53 7000 9500.00
30 6000 8333.33 54 6000 9416.67
 Demanda Demanda
Demanda Periodo Demanda
Desestacionalizada Desestacionalizada
### 6760.75 55 ### 9041.67
### 6802.73 56 ### 9070.13
### 6844.72 57 ### 9112.12
### 6886.71 58 ### 9154.10
### 6928.70 59 ### 9196.09
### 6970.69 60 ### 9238.08
Semana Demanda ($) Pronostco Promedio Movil Pronostco Suavizamiento Exponencial Simple
1 108 106.3333333333
2 116 106.5
3 118 107.45
4 124 108.505
5 96 116.50 110.0545
6 119 113.50 108.64905
7 96 114.25 109.684145
8 102 108.75 108.3157305
9 112 103.25 107.68415745
10 102 107.25 108.115741705
11 92 103.00 107.5041675345
12 91 102.00 105.9537507811
13 99.25 104.4583757029
14 99.25 104.4583757029
15 99.25 104.4583757029
16 99.25 104.4583757029
N= 4
stco Suavizamiento Exponencial Simple L
0 106.3333333333
1 106.5
2 107.45
3 108.505
4 110.0545
5 108.64905
6 109.684145
7 108.3157305
8 107.68415745
9 108.115741705
10 107.5041675345
11 105.9537507811
12 104.4583757029
13 94.0125381327
14 84.6112843194
15 76.1501558874
apha betha Lt+1
0.1 0.9
Trimestre /Año 1 2 3 4 x y
Q1 80 120 120 132 2.5 113
Q2 96 109 132 140 2.5 119.25
Q3 103 145 154 161 2.5 140.75
Q4 123 120 139 170 2.5 138
ALPHA 0.2 0.8
BETHA 0.1 0.9

Trimestre /Año 1 2 3 4 5
Q1 80 120 120 132
Q2 96 109 132 140
Q3 103 145 154 161
Q4 123 120 139 170
Pronostco Q1 89.6 103.088 122.21664 137.475219 151.972578
Pronostco Q2 96 111.5 126.45 143.121 157.99538
Pronostco Q3 113.3 129.334 150.87452 169.969446 186.465997
Pronostco Q4 114 131.98 145.5244 160.029432 178.032869
(x-xm)(y-ym) x-xm2 T0 L0 P1 L1 T1 P2
78 5 15.6 74 89.6 87.68 15.408 103.088
77.5 5 15.5 80.5 96 96 15.5 111.5
91.5 5 18.3 95 113.3 111.24 18.094 129.334
80 5 16 98 114 115.8 16.18 131.98
 L2 T2 P3 L3 T3 P4 L4 T4
106.4704 15.74624 122.21664 121.773312 15.7019072 137.475219 136.380175 15.5924028
111 15.45 126.45 127.56 15.561 143.121 142.4968 15.49858
132.4672 18.40732 150.87452 151.499616 18.4698296 169.969446 168.175556 18.2904407
129.584 15.9404 145.5244 144.21952 15.809912 160.029432 162.023546 16.0093234
 P5
151.972578
157.99538
186.465997
178.032869