Accepted Manuscript

DIRECT PREFERENCES OF SPORTS FANS: IS THERE A

SUPERSTAR EFFECT IN THE FANTASY LEAGUE?

Vojtěch Kotrba

PII: S2214-8043(18)30201-5
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socec.2018.12.010
Reference: JBEE 1389

To appear in: Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics

Received date: 24 April 2018

Revised date: 16 October 2018
Accepted date: 29 December 2018

Please cite this article as: Vojtěch Kotrba , DIRECT PREFERENCES OF SPORTS FANS: IS THERE
A SUPERSTAR EFFECT IN THE FANTASY LEAGUE?, Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Eco-
nomics (2018), doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socec.2018.12.010

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 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT

Highlights

 Fantasy sports users act in line with both main theories of the superstar effect
 The Adler‘s effect is substantially bigger than the Rosen‘s effect
 Athlete‘s performance, nationality or club are more important than being superstar
 The fantasy sports environment allows investigating users preferences directly

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DIRECT PREFERENCES OF SPORTS FANS: IS THERE A SUPERSTAR

EFFECT IN THE FANTASY LEAGUE?

Vojtěch Kotrba1

Department of Institutional, Environmental and Experimental Economics, University of Economics in Prague,

Nám. W. Churchilla 4, 130 67 Prague, Czech Republic.

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Ing. Vojtěch Kotrba
PhD. student at Department of Institutional, Environmental and Experimental Economics,

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Faculty of Economics, University of Economics in Prague.
Field of study: Economic Theory.
Supervisor: doc. Mgr. PhDr. doctorandus Silvester van Koten, M.A., Ph.D.

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PhD thesis topic: Research of consumer preferences using data from online games.
Special focus on using the fantasy sports environment to investigate consumer preferences
directly (without mediated variables).
Another area of interests: Usage of data from insurance companies to detect behavior and
preferences.

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Keywords: fans  fantasy league  popularity  soccer  superstar effect  talent
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JEL Classification: J23  J24  J44  L83

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ABSTRACT
This paper investigates the presence of the superstar effect among the users of the Czech fantasy
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league during the 2015–16 season. Both the main points of view found in previous literature are
taken into consideration, namely Rosen‘s theory and Adler‘s theory. The biggest advantage of
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the virtual fantasy league environment is the ability to gain direct preferences, not just those
provided by mediated variables, for the athletes‘ characteristics which are important for users.
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Using regression models, which employ the method of pooled ordinary least squares, I show
a positive superstar effect according to both theories. The effect based on Adler‘s theory is
substantially bigger than the effect based on Rosen‘s theory. Nevertheless, some of the other
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examined influences are more important, such as the athlete‘s performance; the athlete‘s
nationality being the same as the user‘s; or how famous the club the athlete started in was.

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Corresponding author.
E-mail: vojta.kotrba@post.cz.
Phone: +420 604 772 532
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1. Introduction

One of the basic elements of the microeconomic theory are consumer preferences. It is essential
to study these preferences to understand the economic behavior of consumers, especially as this
behavior is often irrational. In the current dynamic world, which offers more space
for entertainment, it is crucial to understand how people make choices, in order to attract their
demand.

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I have access to data that can uncover this decision-making process in the sports environment.

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Because of its specificity, the sports industry is able to measure the performance of the workers
much better, as the athletes‘ performance is often recorded and stored. The fantasy sport

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increases these benefits even further. The users of fantasy sports make choices on a weekly basis
and it is possible to measure whether they choose optimal players who will bring as many points

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as possible at the lowest price or whether they base their decisions on heuristics, like the
superstar effect, nationality or club preference. Thus, consumer preferences may no longer be
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represented by mere mediated variables; they can be recorded directly, which results in more
precise conclusions in the scientific area.
For my study, I use a dataset from several websites. The main section of the data comes from
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the company Seznam, Inc., which ran its own fantasy league on the website fantasy.sport.cz.
The data is from the season 2015–16.
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My goal in this paper is to measure preferences of fantasy sport users in the Czech fantasy
league, which is based on the English Premier League. Special emphasis is put on the superstar
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effect. I reflect both the most important theories to answer the question whether Czechs behave
in accordance with Rosen‘s or Adler‘s theory.
The superstar effect is a phenomenon that can influence the consumers‘ decision on what kind
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and what amount of goods they demand. The superstar effect is a situation where a relatively
small number of workers earn disproportionately large payments for their performances. This is
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possible due to the fact that there is a sufficient number of consumers who demand the star
performances. There are two main theories which try to explain this effect. Rosen‘s Theory
(1981) says that stars have additional talents, superior over those of others. Adler‘s Theory
(1985) says that the difference is in their media fame, not in different abilities. The superstar
effect in sports has primarily been explored from a labor market perspective, specifically from an
owner‘s or a general manager‘s perspective (Lucifora and Simmons, 2003; Franck and Nüesch,
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2007; Bryson et al., 2014). However, direct users‘ preferences have not yet been well described
in this context.
Using the available data, I compile regression models and make conclusions about the influence
of the superstar theory in the Czech fantasy sports environment and other preferences of the
users. The main variables of interest are one dummy variable according to Rosen‘s theory and
one according to Adler‘s theory. According to Rosen‘s theory, I define a superstar soccer player

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based the points he gained in the fantasy league. The fantasy league rules on distribution of

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points allow a better explanation of soccer players‘ talents than just their goal-scoring, as in
previous literature (Lucifora and Simmons, 2003). According to Adler‘s theory, I define

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a superstar soccer player by the number of followers on Twitter (Smith, 2015). As control
variables, I use different types of a soccer player‘s performance, his nationality, price, position,

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and whether the soccer player started for any of the most famous clubs.
The results show a positive superstar effect according to both theories. The effect based on
Adler‘s theory is substantially bigger than the effect based on Rosen‘s theory. Nevertheless,
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some of the other dummy variables are even more important, such as the athlete being of the
nationality as the user or the athlete starting for one of the most famous clubs. These findings
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support the notion that consumers do not make rational choices all of the time.
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2. Superstar due to talent or media fame

There are more approaches to the economics of superstars, however, two of them are the most
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important. These are Rosen‘s article The Economics of Superstars (Rosen, 1981) and Adler‘s
article Stardom and Talent (Adler, 1985).
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In both cases, the first step is the definition of the superstar effect regardless of the industry (such
as cinema, fine arts, music, sports, and more). Firstly, there are many people in the industry who
receive a low income, and only a relatively small number of stars arise from this group
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(MacDonald, 1988) to earn a great deal of money. The gain gap between the best and the second
best is crucial. Rosen‘s theory says that the situation could be explained by the additional small
amount of talent, which the gifted stars have (Rosen, 1981). It is also impossible to substitute
the most talented individuals with the less talented ones, no matter what.
Moreover, there is a close link between personal payments and market size. Only a big market
allows great financial payments for its workers (Kaplan and Rauh, 2013). There also has to be
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a way of delivering the stars‘ product. For example, star soccer players only complete their
matches, but this can be watched by a large number of people directly at the stadium, an even
larger number of people on television, and, currently, even an unlimited number of people on
the Internet. Delivering this product to additional people already comes with zero extra costs, or
negligible extra costs compared to revenue.
Adler‘s theory is based on a different assumption. It says that there is no difference in talent.

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The key lies in the consumers‘ utility function based on the accumulation of ―consumption

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capital‖ (Stigler and Becker, 1977). Utility for consumers grows with knowledge, which rises by
consuming the stars and sharing information about these stars and communication with other

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fans (Adler, 1985). Also, the possibility of gossip can increase utility (Nüesch, 2007).
Consumers have limited time to consume the stars, to get more information about them, to attend

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their performances or watch them on TV. Therefore, they have to choose only a few industries
and few stars. Consumers can benefit from sharing the stars with others only when they follow
the same stars. The cost of finding companions to share the stars is minimized when a consumer
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selects stars that already are followed by many others. Logically, the outcome of this situation is
that consumers choose the most famous stars. Thus, learning and sharing is an important factor.
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The consumer has the higher utility the more she knows and the more fans share the same star to
follow and to share.
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Celebrities with no special talent can be an extreme example of Adler‘s theory; such as
participants of a TV reality show. During the show, many consumers might talk about these
celebrities, but after the end of the show, their fame can quickly disappear (Chung and Cox,
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1994; Spierdijk and Voorneveld, 2009).

Both theories have been tested in many areas of interest. In the past, stars who resonated with
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Adler‘s theory mostly came from politics or science (Chenu, 2011), while nowadays this type of
stars is more common in music (Filimon et al., 2011) or sport (Franck and Nüesch, 2007). Top
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managers could be an example of stars based on Rosen‘s theory (Baranchuk et al., 2011). Of
course, the principal-agent problem (Rees, 1985) may occur in this industry but only some
companies deal with it by motivating wages for managers. There are also workers with
exceptional earnings on the common labor market (Ndoye and Lubrano, 2014) which is
consistent with Rosen‘s theory.
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Nevertheless, there are also areas where the superstar effect does not appear or at least not
always (Lehmann and Schulze, 2008). The examples include the market for restaurant chefs
(Ehrmann et al., 2009) or teachers (Acemoglu et al., 2014).

3. Superstar effect in sports

The superstar effect is evident in many sports markets. Fans demand their idols and want to

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watch them in action (Lucifora and Simmons, 2003; Bryson et al., 2014). However, the presence

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of superstar athletes has worth for sports clubs, despite the fact that they receive extremely high

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wages (Skrok, 2011). The star athletes increase attract a greater audience at stadiums, increase
the interest in the club, jerseys sales and other clubs‘ revenues (Hausman and Leonard, 1997;
Ormiston, 2014). They also induce a significant growth of fans‘ loyalty to the club (Hoegele et

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al., 2012). The club benefits from star athletes even after the end of their active career, as they
still represent the club in the media (Taylor, 2000). On the other hand, clubs must keep their
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finances in mind as well. An effort to attract athletes who the club cannot afford to pay in
the long term can lead to club bankruptcy (Boeri and Severgnini, 2014).
The above applies to sports leagues both in Europe and the US, despite the differences in
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regulations of wages between these two legal environments (Bougheas and Downward, 2000;
Simmons, 2007). In the US, there are wage caps on the sports labor market. Since it is
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a restrictive market, many players have wages that do not match their contribution to club
revenues. On the contrary, the European sports labor market is more open. There, the athletes‘
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wages are broadly in line with their performance and contribution to club revenues.
Although wage caps increase the revenue of clubs at the expense of star athletes, there is a great
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benefit to the clubs. Wage caps increase the equality, and thus the attractiveness of
the competition. Subsequently, the demand for sports increases (Quinn et al., 2007).
The sports league, as an industry with a small number of companies and a large number of
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workers, should have monopsony rents (Rottenberg, 1956), but in reality, it does not.
The presence of the superstar effect could be the reason for that (Garcia-del-Barrio and Pujol,
2007). The surplus money that clubs earn is invested in the wages of the superstar athletes.
The star athletes could be seen as monopoly goods. According to the theory of superstar effect, it
is not possible to substitute the star athletes.
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4. Fantasy sport

It is not easy to get data for direct preferences of consumers; however, some environments
providing those do exist. Card games can serve as an example (Gergaud and Verardi, 2006).
Fantasy sports also provide this option. Currently, the fantasy sports environment is used
increasingly often in economic papers (Davis and Duncan, 2006; Bolitho, 2007; Farquhar and
Meeds, 2007; Nesbit and King, 2010; Dwyer, 2011; Dwyer et al., 2011; Dwyer et al., 2013; Lee

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et al., 2013; Bryson and Chevalier, 2014).

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In fantasy sport, the users act rather like managers. The main task of managers and club owners
is to make a profit of their clubs. To achieve this, managers choose the best performing players at

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the best prices available. However, managers also have to consider the popularity of those
players with fans. The users of fantasy sport also choose players for their team, but on a weekly

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basis. Because of the limited budget and the effort to get as many points as possible, fantasy
sports create a situation where users have to solve the optimization problem that is so typical for
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economics. Finding optimal players requires a lot of effort and time. The fantasy sports
environment allows us to study whether the users act rationally or get blinded to the optimal
choice (Farquhar and Meeds, 2007; Dwyer et al., 2011; Lee et al., 2013).
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Another important element of fantasy sports is the fact that the users compare their knowledge
and experience with their opponents. This interaction may even be the main reason for
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participating in fantasy sports. Sharing and comparing knowledge is a behavior typical for
Adler‘s theory of superstar effect, which can further intensify because of fantasy sport. On
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the other hand, many users simply try to get as many points as possible and win. Thus, these
users will try to find the top performers who meet the definition of a superstar according to
Rosen‘s theory. However, the limited budget does not allow the users to only select the best
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players, and so they are forced to show their preferences.

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5. Variables and data

I use an approach similar to that in previous literature (Bryson and Chevalier, 2014) to create
the structure model. The frequency of the users selecting a particular soccer player is defined as a
response variable. Different rounds of the competitions were played by a different number of
users, so I specifically use the percentage of squads in which a particular soccer player was
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present as the response variable. It is in a logarithmic form in accordance with the previous
literature (Bryson and Chevalier, 2014). The variable is named l_percentage.
The users choose a completely new squad each round with consideration for many factors, which
I try to identify and set as explanatory variables. The main explanatory variable in this paper is
the superstar effect. I include two variables related to it in the dataset. It is always a dummy
variable and the value 1 means that the player is a star according to the methodology. 0 means

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the player is not a star.

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The first variable represents the superstar effect according to Rosen‘s theory. I try to improve on
the approach used in previous literature (Lucifora and Simmons, 2003) and define star players by

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the number of points that a player gained in the fantasy league in the season 2014–15 which
preceded the observed season. As a cut-off point, I choose the number of points that is nearest to

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the 95 % quantile from above, in accordance with previous literature (Franck and Nüesch, 2007).
This number is rounded to 25 for better clarity. If the player gained more than 150 points, then he
is marked as a superstar player. There are 25 players who met this definition. I use scoring
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corresponding to the rules of a particular fantasy league. The points system can be found in the
Appendix. This variable is named sse_rosen.
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The second variable represents the superstar effect according to Adler‘s theory. I define
the variable by the number of followers on Twitter (Smith, 2015). As a cut-off point, I choose the
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number of followers that is nearest to the 95 % quantile from above in accordance with previous
literature (Franck and Nüesch, 2007). This number is rounded to 0.5 million for better clarity. A
soccer player who had more than 1.5 million followers on Twitter in August 2015 is marked as a
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superstar. There are 28 players who met this definition. This variable is named sse_adler.
The performance of a player ought to be the most important in the model, as the main goal of
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the users should be winning in the fantasy league. This factor is included in the form of short-
term, long-term and current performance. The reason is that the users‘ are expected to gradually
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forget the players‘ performance (Bryson and Chevalier, 2014). Players who bring more points to
users will certainly be demanded more.
Current performance aims to filter out unobservable factors that are crucial to the number of
points which a player can get in a particular round. These factors may include injuries, card
penalties, additional news from coaches, and others. This information could be accessed by an
attentive user on fantasy league sites and from other sources. Current performance is expressed
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by the number of points that a player gains in the particular round of observation. It is named
points_current in the model.
Short-term performance represents the fact that a player was good in the last match. This variable
is easily identifiable for users, but may not reflect the overall performance of the player. Short-
term performance is represented by the number of points that a player gained in the last match
before the observation. It is named points_short in the model. The values are time-shifted by one

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round beside current performance.

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Long-term performance represents the fact that a player brings points over a longer time. If
a player can maintain a high number of points throughout the season, then the users can be more

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confident he will be successful. The arithmetic mean of the player‘s average performance for
half of the season preceding the observed match and of the average performance in the previous

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five and ten matches is named points_long and stands for long-term performance. For clarity,
the calculation procedure is shown by the formula below.
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(arithmetic mean of points in the last half season 

+ arithmetic mean of points in the last five matches 
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+ arithmetic mean of points in the last ten matches )

points _ long  (1)
3
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Due to the limited budget available to the users, I take into account the player‘s price in
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the model. However, the data for this variable is available only for rounds 1 to 12. For
the remaining rounds, I calculate the weighted arithmetic mean from the first twelve rounds.
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The editors of the website can set the price of the players each round, based on the demand. In
accordance with previous literature (Bryson and Chevalier, 2014), the variable is in a logarithmic
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form in the model. The variable is named l_price.

The model also includes a dummy variable representing whether the player is Czech. My data
comes from a fantasy league website, which was only in Czech, so I expect the users were
mainly Czechs who would prefer Czech players. During the observed period, there were six
Czech players in the Premier League. The variable is called czech.
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Furthermore, the model includes the player‘s position, which aims to take into account
the possibility of various compositions of the squad. In the dataset, there are 68 goalkeepers,
220 defenders, 271 midfielders, and 144 forwards. The variables for game positions are named
as follows. The variable defender stands for defenders, midfielder for midfielders and forward
for forwards. I leave out the variable for goalkeepers to avoid perfect multicollinearity.
Dummy variables related to the famous TOP 5 Premier League clubs might have a similar

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character as the superstar effect. Specifically, these are the following clubs: Arsenal, Chelsea,

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Liverpool, Manchester City, and Manchester United. The users can have their favorite club and
may prefer players from this club. The difference between the superstar effect and these dummy

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variables is evident. A good example is provided by a situation, when a star player leaves out
the user‘s preferred club. There is a superstar effect when the user continues to include the player

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in her squads, regardless of the club in which he started. The variables for the five most famous
clubs in the Premier League are named as follows: the variable for Arsenal is named arsenal,
chelsea for Chelsea, liverpool for Liverpool, manchester_c for Manchester City, and
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manchester_u for Manchester United.
The main part of the dataset comes from Seznam, Inc., which operated several of its fantasy
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leagues at the website fantasy.sport.cz. The data I use comes from the fantasy league based on
the Premier League in season 2015–16. The competition consisted of 38 rounds and 11,096
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people participated in the game. These users formed a total of 134,682 squads, in which they
included 703 different players. The final dataset consists of 17,911 observations of a player in
a single round. The descriptive statistics for the response variable, short-term and long-term
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performance, and price are presented in Table 1.

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Table 1 Descriptive statistics

Variable Mean minimum maximum s. d.
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l_percentage -5,625 -8,714 -0,185 1,913

points_short 1,736 -6 24 2,652
points_long 1,654 -0,7 9,486 1,486
l_price 1,741 0 2,557 0,403
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6. Econometric models and results

6.1. Econometric models

I compiled three main models to calculate the two versions of the superstar effect. In all
the models, I included the percentage of squads into which the player was chosen each round.
This is used as the response variable and it is in a logarithmic form. As explanatory variables in

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all the models, I included the current, short-term and long-term performance of the player, his
price in a logarithmic form, a dummy variable for Czechs, dummy variables for the players‘

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position and dummy variables for the five most famous clubs Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool,

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Manchester City, and Manchester United. In the first model, I included both the variables related
to the superstar effect. In the second model, I included only the variable related to the superstar
effect based on Rosen‘s theory. Finally, in the third model, I included only the variable related to
the superstar effect based on Adler‘s theory. US
Thus, the first full econometric model has the following form.
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l_percenta ge   0   1 sse _ rosen   2 sse _ adler   3 points_cur rent   4 points_short 

  5 points_lon g   6 l_price   7 czech   8 defender   9 midfielder   10 forward 
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  11 arsenal   12 chelsea   13 liverpool   14 manchester _c   15 manchester _u  

(2)
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Not every player may be included in all rounds, so my dataset is an unbalanced panel. It is
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therefore appropriate to use the pooled ordinary least squares for the estimation. The resulting
coefficients are shown in Table 2.
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Table 2 Econometric models (pooled OLS), response variable: l_percentage

Model no. 1 Model no. 2 Model no. 3
– full model – Rosen’s SSE – Adler’s SSE
Variable Coefficient SE Coefficient SE Coefficient SE
const. -8.093*** 0.041 -8.087*** 0.042 -8.119*** 0.041
sse_rosen 0.304*** 0.039 0.380*** 0.039 - -
sse_adler 0.433*** 0.038 - - 0.484*** 0.038
points_current 0.060*** 0.003 0.058*** 0.003 0.060*** 0.003

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points_short 0.113*** 0.004 0.112*** 0.004 0.111*** 0.004

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points_long 0.694*** 0.009 0.696*** 0.009 0.708*** 0.008
l_price 0.463*** 0.027 0.468*** 0.027 0.465*** 0.027

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czech 1.158*** 0.085 1.129*** 0.086 1.163*** 0.085
defender 0.638*** 0.032 0.626*** 0.033 0.646*** 0.032
midfielder -0.385*** 0.032 -0.380*** 0.032 -0.369*** 0.032
forward
arsenal
chelsea
liverpool
-0.344***
1.063***
1.182***
0.951***
0.035
0.049
0.050
0.048
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1.147***
1.285***
0.975***
0.035
0.049
0.050
0.048
-0.319***
1.050***
1.239***
0.940***
0.035
0.049
0.050
0.048
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manchester_c 1.077*** 0.048 1.130*** 0.048 1.111*** 0.048
manchester_u 1.174*** 0.050 1.284*** 0.049 1.178*** 0.050
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Adjusted R 0.702 0.700 0.701
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p-value (F-test) <0.001 <0.001 <0.001

Number of
17,911 17,911 17,911
observation
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Note: Asterisks denote significance: *** Significant at 1 %

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According to the F-test, all the models are significant at 1 %. In the first model, the adjusted R2
shows that the model explains 70.2 % of the variation explained by only the explanatory
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variables that actually affect the response variable. In the second model, the adjusted R2 is
70.0 % and in the third model, the adjusted R2 is 70.1 %. The robustness of the model and the
pricing of the superstar players are tested in Appendix and confirm the results of the main
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models.

6.2. Superstar effect

Both the variables related to the superstar effect are significant at 1 % in the full model and in
their own models as well. Their coefficients also have similar values in both types of models,
which indicate their stability. The coefficient of the variable sse_rosen has the value 0.304 in
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the full model, which means that if a player is a star according to Rosen‘s theory, the percentage
of squads in which he is included increases 1.355 times. The coefficient of the variable sse_adler
has the value 0.403 in the full model, which means that if a player is a star according to Adler‘s
theory, the percentage of squads in which he is included increases 1.541 times.
The positive coefficients of the variables according to Rosen‘s theory were expected. They show
that fantasy sport users focus on those players who gain the greatest number of points. The

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fantasy league offers tools which allow the users to follow the players‘ skills other than goal-

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scoring. The users can see the goalkeepers or defenders who score the most points, even though
they have not scored many goals.

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Nevertheless, the coefficients of the variable according to Adler‘s theory have a substantially
greater value than the coefficient according to Rosen‘s theory. This means that the fame of a

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player has an even greater impact than his additional talent. The community of fantasy sports
users also acts based on Adler‘s theory more than based on Rosen‘s theory. The nature of
the fantasy sports environment could explain this conclusion. Fantasy league users often seek
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and share information about players and the users‘ utility can grow through this behavior. These
findings are consistent with previous research as well (Franck and Nüesch, 2007).
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However, it should be noted that both the superstar-related variables have coefficient values
lower than other dummy variables in the model, namely variables for the Czech nationality and
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the most famous clubs. Since the users are Czechs and not many Czechs have played in the
Premier League, the national sentiment and the effort to include players of the same nationality
are expected. As for the famous clubs, users can expect that these clubs win more often, given
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their long-term success in the Premier League. Therefore, it is expected that the players of these
clubs will bring more points to users, despite the fact that points in the fantasy league are not
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directly linked to the clubs‘ victories in the matches. It is therefore easier for users to bet on
players from these clubs than to analyze players from other clubs in detail. The influence of the
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fans‘ preferences for these clubs could be another factor.

6.3. Control variables

The resulting coefficients for the three variables related to performance are statistically
significant at 1 % in all models. The values of the coefficients also indicate a high influence on
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the response variable. The coefficients are very similar in all the models, which indicates
the stability of these variables‘ influence.
The highest coefficient value for long-term performance shows that the users are most aware of
the players‘ regular performances shown for a longer period of time. This conclusion is
understandable. The players who perform better in the long term are watched more closely and
are widely promoted in the media.

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The higher value of the short-term compared to the current performance shows the interest in

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the number of points a player scored in the last match before the observation. Users do not invest
as much effort into obtaining additional information for the next round and make their decision

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based on the short-term and, above all, long-term performance.
The variable related to the price of players is statistically significant at 1 % in all the models.

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The price is set by the fantasy league authors, who try to take the demand for specific players
into account. If the price was perfectly dependent on the demand, it would have a zero
coefficient. Although a player‘s price reflects the user‘s cost of including him in the squad,
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the coefficients are positive. This is caused by a relative decrease of the price of the most
expensive players in order to make them obtainable. The imperfections of this variable may also
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be related to the way it was created.

The variable for the Czech nationality is always statistically significant at 1 %. The value of
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the coefficient is higher than for the variables related to the superstar effect. Especially Petr
Čech, who regularly started in Arsenal during the season, probably has a positive influence on
this variable.
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Users need to choose a certain number of players for each of the possible positions. As such,
the variables relating to the game positions are included in the model. The coefficient for
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the variable defender has a positive value and the coefficients for the variables midfielder and
forward have negative values. This shows that goalkeeper and defender are more stable game
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positions.
All dummy variables for the famous clubs are significant at 1 % and the value of their
coefficients is comparable in all models. The order of the coefficient values is similar in all
models as well. The variable chelsea has the highest coefficient and manchester_u has the
second highest coefficient in all models. The variable manchester_c has the third highest
coefficient and arsenal has the fourth highest in Models 1 and 3. In Model 2 the variable arsenal
 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT

has the third highest coefficient and manchester_c is the fourth highest. The lowest coefficient
from the famous club variables has liverpool, but it is still a higher coefficient than the dummy
variables according to superstar effect. This order is probably caused by Chelsea‘s good
performance in the season 2014–15. Therefore, the users might have expected that Chelsea
players will continue in their superior performance. Although Manchester United ended in the 4th
place, its coefficient is the second highest. This could have been expected, as it is the club with

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the greatest number of Premier League victories. The order of the rest of the clubs corresponds to

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their performance in the 2014–15 season. Manchester City ended in the second place and
Arsenal ended in the third place. Liverpool has not won an important trophy for some time.

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The victory in the Champions League in 2004–05 season can be considered its last success. In
the Premier League, Liverpool only placed second in the 2013–14 and 2008–09 seasons.

7. Discussion US
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The unique nature of the fantasy league environment, the growing interest in watching sports as
a form of entertainment, the development of information technologies, and the globalization of
the world‘s markets all contribute to the growing interest in the fantasy sports environment and
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the study of its characteristics. A better insight into individual preferences will allow
the participants of the sports market make better decisions.
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Theory shows that the superstar effect has two major impacts on the market. Firstly, there is
a seemingly irrational higher demand for famous star athletes in comparison to the rest.
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However, this demand can be explained by the consumers‘ need to share their passion with
others while maximizing the utility. Secondly, there are the disproportionately higher rewards of
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the star athletes, caused not only by them being irreplaceable by any other athlete, but also by
their huge number of fans. The worldwide fame of the best athletes is caused by globalization
and the development of information technologies, which allow people to watch the athletes‘
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performance from around the world. A good understanding of the superstar effect will allow for
a better calculation of the athletes‘ reward and better financial strategies for sports clubs.
In the Appendix, I show that the inclusion of superstar players in a squad is not automatically
beneficial to users. On average, superstars score more points than regular players, but they are
also more expensive. Given the limited budget, it is not possible to pick a superstar team. On the
contrary: the goal of the user should be to find those players who will bring as many points as
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possible at the lowest price. Finding and picking such players would bring the user
a considerable advantage in the competition. However, the higher selection rate of superstar
players shows that this approach does not prevail among users. This fact supports the conclusion
that finding an optimal player, whose performance and price are best for the user‘s team, takes
too much time and effort.
The specific results of my paper show a positive superstar effect according to both Rosen‘s and

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Adler‘s theories among the Czech users of the fantasy league. The influence of Adler‘s theory is

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substantially higher. This means that famous athletes are much more demanded than comparable
non-famous players. The results agree with those found in previous literature (Lucifora and

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Simmons, 2003; Franck and Nüesch, 2007). However, previous research was based on variables
which represented the behavior of managers and club owners. The conformity of the results

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therefore shows some trickle-down effect in the users‘ behavior.
The positive and statistically significant influence of the variables according to Adler‘s theory
shows that the method for verifying the superstar effect is suitable. Users of the fantasy sport
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might therefore be influenced by the fame of athlete even more than by his additional talent. This
may be related to the existence of the fantasy league user community. The need to share
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information and the need for additional information allowing success in the game agree with
Adler‘s explanation of consumers‘ behavior.
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However, my results show that users are interested in the best point-scorers as well. Compared to
the previous literature, which shows that fans demand goal-scorers more (Lucifora and Simmons,
2003), my results show that users appreciate other abilities as well.
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The sample at my disposal comes from one of the two largest fantasy sports websites in
the Czech Republic in the season 2015–16. Given that men watch sports more than women, it
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can be assumed that most users are men. Previous literature also confirms this fact (Davis and
Duncan, 2006). At the same time, I expect the oldest generation to be represented very little, due
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to its lack of knowledge of the technologies necessary to access the fantasy league websites.
However, the average user I describe meets the demographic characteristics generally applicable
to a typical fan in the Czech Republic and the world. Therefore, the conclusions can be
generalized to this group.
It should be emphasized that my approach of defining the superstar athletes according to Adler‘s
theory may not be the only possible one. For example, how frequently an athlete is mentioned in
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the press could also be a factor (Chenu, 2011); however, that would only show mediated
consumer preferences. Nevertheless, the media have considerable influence on the perception of
star athletes, especially according to Adler‘s theory. Another method could be using the athletes‘
popularity in Internet searches.
Demographic data about users could be used to further refine the results; in particular gender,
residence area or salary. All of these characteristics can affect the way users choose players for

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their squads. The importance of the superstar effect may vary from one segment to another.

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Based on my results, in case of a favorable financial situation, Czech clubs could try to bring
a famous soccer player to attract more fans. The two richest clubs in the Czech Republic, namely

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AC Sparta Prague and SK Slavia Prague, have already been trying to use players with star
characteristics to their benefit.

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Other possible approaches to this issue could include expanding research into other sports like
ice hockey, which has an extremely large fan base and where fan preferences are crucial for
clubs. The ice hockey market, however, has a different structure. The best competition is the
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National Hockey League, which is in the US and Canada, while the best soccer competitions are
in Europe. It is therefore possible that fan preferences for the superstar athletes would show
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different conclusions.
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Acknowledgements
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This paper is inspired by the author‘s MA thesis. The author would like to express his gratitude
to Pavel Kotrba and Kateřina Kotrbová for their help and consultation. Thanks also include the
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company Seznam, Inc. for providing the raw fantasy league data.
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Appendix A. Fantasy league rules

In my paper, I use data from a field experiment. The specific fantasy league rules therefore serve
as experimental instructions and I go through these rules in this section.
The users play the role of sports managers and build their own teams. The players that a user
chooses receive points for their real performance in the real world. Therefore, the fantasy league
traces the real competition. In my paper, this is specifically the highest English soccer league. If

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a website visitor wants to participate in the fantasy league, she must first register on the website

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and become a ―user‖ (this term is used throughout my paper). The user can set her nickname and
the name of her team, for which she picks eleven players each round. If the user does not set her

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squad, then she does not participate in the given round and the number of points for that round is
zero. The squad can be changed no later than one hour before the first match of the particular
round, then the squad is automatically saved.
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The users get the following information about the rules on the website.
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 Participation in this fantasy league is free.
 The budget for purchasing players is $100,000,000.
 The user has to buy eleven players each round to get as many points as possible.
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 The user‘s team should not include more than three players from one English Premier
League club.
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 The user selects from various compositions of the squad (the number of defenders – the
number of midfielders – the number of forwards: 4-4-2, 4-3-3, 3-4-3, 3-5-2, 5-3-2, 4-5-1,
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5-4-1) and one goalkeeper.

 The user should choose one captain of her team. The captain receives double points.
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The points system of the fantasy league depends on the game position and can be found in
Table A1.
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Table A1: Points system in the fantasy league

Game position Action Points
All Playing up to 60 minutes 1
All Playing 60 minutes or more 2
All For each goal assist 3
Goalkeeper For each penalty save 5
Goalkeeper For every 3 shot saves 1
Goalkeeper and

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For each goal scored 8
Defender

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Goalkeeper and
Clean sheet 3
Defender

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Midfielder For each goal scored 6
Midfielder Clean sheet 1
Forward For each goal scored 4
Goalkeeper and
Defender
All
For each goal conceded
For each own goal
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-3
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All For each yellow card -1
All For each red card -3
All For each penalty miss -3
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Appendix B. Pricing of superstar players

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In order to avoid the possibility of a direct connection between the superstar players and the
players‘ price, I study the influence of the superstar effect on the price. First, I compiled Table
B1 which shows the number, the average price, and the average points of players in the first 12
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rounds (a period when the price has changed), according to whether the players are superstars
according to Rosen‘s or Adler‘s theory.
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Table B1 Pricing and points-scoring depending on being a superstar

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Superstar Superstar Mean points

Number of Mean price
Rosen’s Adler’s in 2015–16
players (millions)
Theory Theory (12 rounds)
No No 657 5.528 13.155
No Yes 21 6.387 23.190
Yes No 18 8.884 44.056
Yes Yes 7 9.826 47.000
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The table shows that the cheapest and worst performing players are those who are not superstars
according to either theory. If a player is a superstar according to Adler‘s theory, then his price is
higher. If the player is a superstar according to Rosen‘s theory, then his price is even higher and
if he is a superstar according to both theories, then the price and the gained points are the highest.
Furthermore, I compiled three control models, to show what the player‘s price depends on. Each
player represents a single observation in these models. I define the average player‘s price in the

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first twelve rounds as the response variable. The variable is named mean_price. This means that

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I use a sample where the prices can change between the rounds. The main variables of interest
are dummy variables related to the superstar effect. The names of these variables correspond to

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the main models. I included both the superstar effect variables in the first control model. In the
second, I included only the variable according to Rosen‘s theory, and in the third, according to

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Adler‘s theory. I defined two control variables. The first is named points_1415 and equals the
number of the player‘s points in the previous 2014–15 season. The second is named
points_12r_1516 and equals the number of points in the first twelve rounds of the observed
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2015–16 season. At the beginning of the fantasy league, prices were set according to
performance in the previous season and they changed based on performance in the observed
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season. I used the ordinary least square as the regression method. The resulting coefficients are
shown in Table B1.
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Table B2: Control models 1 (OLS), response variable: mean_price

Control model no. 1 Control model no. 2 Control model no. 3
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– full model – Rosen’s SSE – Adler’s SSE

Variable Coefficient SE Coefficient SE Coefficient SE
const. 4.250*** 0.056 4.249*** 0.056 4.256*** 0.055
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sse_rosen -0.154 0.266 -0.175 0.265 - -

sse_adler -0.150 0.222 - - -0.165 0.220
points_1415 0.010*** 0.001 0.010*** 0.001 0.010*** 0.001
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points_12r_1516 0.074*** 0.003 0.074*** 0.003 0.074*** 0.003

2
Adjusted R 0.697 0.697 0.697
p-value (F-test) <0.001 <0.001 <0.001
Number of
703 703 703
observation
Note: Asterisks denote significance: *** Significant at 1 %.
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According to the F-test, the models are significant at 1 %. Adjusted R2 is about 69.7 % in all
models. The results show the insignificance of the variables related to superstar effect on the
pricing of the players. On the contrary, the positive coefficient and statistical significance of the
variables points_1415 and points_12r_1516 show that the price of a player depends primarily on
performance in the competition. The motivation to include the superstar players in the users‘
squads is not connected with the players‘ better prices in relation to their performance. However,

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the superstar players‘ prices are also not too high.

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Including superstar players is not related to their superior performance compared to price. If the
user‘s goal is to get as many points as possible, including superstar players does not contribute to

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this goal.

Appendix C. Robustness tests

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The robustness of the model is verified on partial samples. The first type of partial samples is
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based on the player‘s position. In the dataset, there are 2 defenders, 14 midfielders, and 9
forwards who are superstars according to Rosen‘s theory and 2 goalkeepers, 4 defenders, 16
midfielders, and 6 forwards who are superstars according to Adler‘s theory. The first test model
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includes only defenders, the second test model includes only midfielders, the third test model
includes only forwards. The results of these models are not influenced by other game positions.
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Therefore, I omitted the dummy variables for game positions in the model. No Czech defender
played in Premier League in season 2015–16, so the variable czech is omitted in the first test
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model. The rest of the formula is the same as in the main models. I use the pooled ordinary least
squares to run the regression. The results of these models can be found in Table C1. Only two
goalkeepers are superstars according to Adler‘s theory, so there is no test model for goalkeepers.
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Table C1: Robustness test models (pooled OLS) – game position,

response variable: l_percentage
Test model no. 1 – Test model no. 2 – Test model no. 3 –
defenders midfielders forwards
Variable Coefficient SE Coefficient SE Coefficient SE
const. -8.051*** 0.079 -8.121*** 0.058 -8.608*** 0.141
sse_rosen 0.676*** 0.149 0.345*** 0.049 0.341*** 0.073
sse_adler 0.472*** 0.092 0.586*** 0.052 0.501*** 0.097

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points_current 0.066*** 0.006 0.053*** 0.005 0.055*** 0.008

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points_short 0.085*** 0.007 0.123*** 0.006 0.142*** 0.008
points_long 0.768*** 0.017 0.661*** 0.013 0.638*** 0.018

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l_price 0.776*** 0.052 0.312*** 0.038 0.565*** 0.083
czech - - 0.736*** 0.119 1.230*** 0.181
arsenal 0.628*** 0.085 0.821*** 0.083 1.421*** 0.098
chelsea
liverpool
manchester_c
manchester_u
1.112***
1.163***
1.123***
1.055***
0.111
0.086
0.086
0.109
US 0.843***
0.698***
0.965***
0.894***
0.073
0.063
0.067
0.062
1.161***
1.167***
0.937***
1.790***
0.117
0.135
0.125
0.118
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2
Adjusted R 0.647 0.743 0.733
p-value (F-test) <0.001 <0.001 <0.001
Number of
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6,292 6,781 3,368

observation
Note: Asterisks denote significance: *** Significant at 1 %.
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All three models are significant at 1 % according to F-test. Adjusted R2 are between 64 % and
75 % in all models. The variables related to the superstar effect are similar in Model 2 for
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midfielders and in Model 3 for forwards. In Model 1 for defenders, the variables for superstar
players are still significant at 1 %, but the coefficient for the variable according to Rosen‘s
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theory is substantially higher. That means additional talent is more important for defenders.
Nevertheless, the direction of influence, the statistical significance and the rough value of the
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coefficients remain consistent. Overall, these models confirm the robustness of the main models.
As the second test method, I chose partial samples for different parts of the season. In the first
model, I included only the first twelve rounds when the price of the players was changing. Two
more models test the first and then the second part of the season. The formula is the same as in
the main models. I used the pooled ordinary least squares to run the regression. The results can
be seen in Table C2.
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Table C2: Robustness test models (pooled OLS) – part of the seasons,
response variable: l_percentage
Test model no. 4 – Test model no. 5 – Test model no. 6
rounds 1-12 rounds 1-19 – rounds 20-38
Variable Coefficient SE Coefficient SE Coefficient SE
const. -8.450*** 0.066 -8.384*** 0.056 -7.627*** 0.063
sse_rosen 0.377*** 0.076 0.247*** 0.058 0.469*** 0.053
sse_adler 0.451*** 0.071 0.433*** 0.055 0.449*** 0.053

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points_current 0.069*** 0.006 0.063*** 0.005 0.055*** 0.005

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points_short 0.133*** 0.007 0.133*** 0.005 0.089*** 0.005
points_long 0.538*** 0.016 0.619*** 0.013 0.778*** 0.012

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l_price 0.782*** 0.041 0.663*** 0.036 0.126*** 0.043
czech 1.315*** 0.144 1.280*** 0.119 0.962*** 0.121
defender 0.553*** 0.058 0.602*** 0.046 0.715*** 0.046
midfielder
forward
arsenal
chelsea
-0.373***
-0.364***
1.154***
1.436***
0.056
0.062
0.092
0.094
US-0.380***
-0.323***
1.148***
1.350***
0.045
0.049
0.071
0.072
-0.348***
-0.320***
1.025***
1.004***
0.045
0.050
0.067
0.069
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liverpool 1.145*** 0.089 1.137*** 0.068 0.770*** 0.066
manchester_c 1.045*** 0.091 1.117*** 0.069 1.074*** 0.066
manchester_u 1.490*** 0.091 1.395*** 0.071 0.938*** 0.069
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2
Adjusted R 0.688 0.701 0.707
p-value (F-test) <0.001 <0.001 <0.001
Number of
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6,187 9,431 8,480

observation
Note: Asterisks denote significance: *** Significant at 1 %.
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All models are significant at 1 % according to F-test. Adjusted R2 is about 70 % in all models.
Regarding the variables related to the superstar effect, these variables are always statistically
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significant at 1 %, while preserving the direction of influence and the approximate value of the
coefficients. The only exception is the higher coefficient of variable sse_rosen in Model 6, but
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this is not a big change. Test Model 6 shows a decrease in the value of the coefficient for the
price variable. In these rounds, the price is just the mean of the price in the first twelve rounds.
The value of the other coefficients changed slightly, but the direction of influence remains the
same. Overall, Model 6 is similar to the previous test and the main models. All three models
based on the parts of the season are similar to those in the main models and confirm their
robustness.
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