Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
A Thesis
Submitted By:
Bikash Karki
Shanker Dev Campus
T.U. Reg. No: 7-1-7-1144-2006
Exam Roll No: 391018
Roll No: 669/068
Submitted To:
Research Department of
Shanker Dev Campus
Tribhuvan University
Putalisadak, Kathmandu
March, 2016
RECOMMENDATION
This is to certify that the thesis
Submitted by:
Bikash Karki
Entitled:
……………………………. ………………………………
Prof. Prakash Singh Pradhan Prof. Dr. Kamal Deep Dhakal
(Thesis Supervisor and Campus Chief) (Head, Research Department)
……………………
Prakash Sapkota
(Thesis Supervisor)
VIVA-VOCE SHEET
We have conducted the viva-voce of the thesis presented
By:
BIKASH KARKI
Entitled:
Viva-Voce Committee
…………………………….
Bikash Karki
Sankher Dev Campus
Campus Roll No.: 669/068
T.U. Regd. No.: 7-1-7-1141-2006
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I want to give thanks for the staff members of Nepal National Library, Shanker
Dev Campus Library who provide the reference and regarding materials during the
period of research.
My thankfulness also goes to my friends Mr. Dablu Karki and Mr. Sanjeev Lama
for supported me greatly in thesis writing.
Finally I would like to express a warm regard to all the concerned people who
helped and directed me for the successful completion of my Thesis.
Bikash Karki
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Recommendations
Viva-Voce Sheet
Declaration
Acknowledgement
Table of Contents
Abbreviations
List of Tables
List of Figures
Page No.
CHAPTER – I
INTRODUCTION
1.1 General Background of the study 1
REVIEW OF LITERATURE
2.1 Theoretical Framework 15
CHAPTER – III
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.1 Research Design 33
3.2 Nature and Sources of Data 33
3.3 Selection of Study Period 34
3.4 Method of Analysis 34
3.4.1 Trend Analysis 34
3.4.2 Arithmetic Mean 35
3.4.3 Standard Deviation 35
3.4.4 Coefficient of Variation 36
3.4.5 Correlation Analysis 36
3.4.5.1 Coefficient of Multiple Determinations (R2) 37
3.4.6 Regression Analysis 37
3.4.6.1 Regression Constant 40
3.4.6.2 Regression Coefficients 40
3.4.6.3 Standard Error of Estimate (SEE) 40
3.5 Limitation of the Study 40
CHATPER – IV
CHAPTER - V
5.2 Conclusion 61
5.3 Recommendations 62
Bibliography
Appendix
ABBREVIATIONS
CBS : Central Bureau of Statistics
CF : Capital Formation
CI : Change in Inventory in the Economy
CS : Capital Stock Growth
et al : and others
FY : Fiscal Year
GDP : Gross Domestic Product
GoN : Government of Nepal
HMG/N : His Majesty's Government/Nepal
IMF : International Monetary Fund
Log : Logarithms
MC : Market Capitalization
NEPSE : Nepal Stock Exchange
NIDC : Nepal Industrial and Development Corporation
NRB : Nepal Rastra Bank
PG : Productivity Growth
PM : Equity Amount Issued Approved in Primary Market
Rs. : Nepalese Rupees
SEBO/N : Securities Board, Nepal
SEE : Standard Error of Estimate
SPSS : Software Program for Social Sciences
TO : Turnover
V : Volatility
VT : Value Traded
LIST OF TABLES
Table No. Page No.
The period 45
INTRODUCTION
1.1 General Background
Traditional theorists believed that stock market in general has no correlation
with economic growth. This proposition aroused studies on finding the effect of
stock market and economic growth. In a developing economy like Nepal, the
development and growth of stock markets have been widespread in recent
times. Despite the size and illiquid nature of stock market, its continued
existence and development could have important implications for economic
activity. Even in less developed countries capital markets are able to mobilize
domestic savings and able to allocate funds more efficiently. Thus stock
markets can play a role in inducing economic growth in less developed country
like Nepal by channeling investment where it is needed from public.
Mobilization of such resources to various sectors certainly helps in economic
development and growth. Stock market development has assumed a
developmental role in global economics and finance because of their impact
they have exerted in corporate finance and economic activity.
Nepal is one of the developing country in the world with about 23% of its
population are living below the poverty line. Nepal continues to be a
predominantly agricultural economy with around three-fourth (3/4) of its
workforce employed in the agricultural sector and accounting only one-third
(1/3) of GDP. The Manufacturing sector employed just 6.6% of the total
workforce. The contribution of manufacturing to total GDP was a minimal.
Industrial activity mainly involves the processing of agricultural products
including jute, sugarcane, tobacco, ghee, soap, noodles, matches, shoes,
chemicals, cement, bricks etc. industrial growth rate is not sufficient for general
growth of the national economy. But it can be said that industrialization is the
back-bone of the national economy and it is important factor for achieving the
basic objective or country's economic and social progress.
1
this function by channeling the nation's saving into best uses. It does this by
bringing together those who have surplus funds to lend and those who wish to
borrow to finance their expenditures.
The trading of shares of stocks takes places in the stock market, on one hand, it
directly provides liquidity to the investors who provide funds for the
establishment of the productive enterprises, and on the other, encourage savers
to save more and enterprising economic units to start productive ventures.
Nepal, the capital deficient economy, requires a huge amount of investment in
productive activities for her rapid economic development. The stock market
can play vital role by encouraging and channeling the saving to provide the
entrepreneurs for investment in profitable projects in the Nepalese economy.
The development of economy requires the productive activities, which in turn
is the result of the investment ventures in productive enterprises. The
establishment of these enterprises needs a huge amount of funds.
There are mainly two sources of financing the productive enterprises the
internal and external sources. The internal financing has the limited scope
because of the limited resources and risk associated with investment so now a
days, the external financing the method of financing an enterprises through the
financing market, has become the most important and popular sources of
financing for fostering the productive activities in the economy. Now all the
economic units including the householder and government have to rely on
external financing also. The introduction and developments of financial assets
2
is the most important attributes of the external financial. Thus, stock market is
the most important component of the financial market (market for financial
assets) is a must for the development of economy. In the Nepalese context, the
external financing has the limited scope because of the least developed
financial market in the economy. The savers and investors often are the same in
the Nepalese economy, which is one of the discouraging factors for the rapid
growth of investment in productive activates.
The basic functions of stock market are still top provide and allocate capital
funds to firms with profitable investments opportunities and to offer an avenue
to liquidity for individuals to invest current income or borrow against future
income and there by achieve their preferred time pattern of consumption.
Because investing involves uncertainty, capital market also provides a means
for transferring risk among the parties to this transaction. The stock market and
economic activity move in similar cyclical patterns. In the Nepalese economy,
the demand and supply of funds for investment in productive enterprises is low
due to the absence of mechanism for transferring risk which, in turn, may be
attributed to the absence of well developed stock market.
Stock market may affect economic activity through the creation of liquidity
many profitable investments require a long-term commitment of capital, but
investors are often reluctant to relinquish control of their saving for long
periods. Liquid equity markets make investment less risky and more attractive.
They need access to their savings or want to alter their portfolios. At the same
time, company enjoys permanent access to capital raised through equity
issuance. By facilitating longer term, more profitable investment liquid markets
improve the allocation of capital and enhance prospect for long term economic
growth. Further by making investments less risky and more profitable, stock
market liquidity can also lead more investment. But succinctly, investors will
come if they can leave. Nepalese stock market is least developed from these
points of view. There is a virtual absence of liquidity, which discourages
further investment in economy.
3
Securities Board of Nepal (SEBON) has been regulating and monitoring about
350 companies including securities Market, Listed Companies, Central
Depository Company, Depository Members, Mutual Investment Fund, Credit
Rating Institution and Securities Traders with day by day expansion of capital
market.
The basic functions of stock market are still to provide and allocate capital
funds to firms with profitable investment opportunities and to offer on avenue
of liquidity for individuals to invest current income for borrow against future
income and there by achieve their preferred time pattern of consumption
because investing involves uncertainty, capital market also provoke a means
for transferring risk among the parties to these transaction. The stock market
and economic activities move in similar cyclical patterns. In Nepalese
4
economy, the demand and supply of funds for investment in productive
enterprise is low duet to the absence of mechanism for transferring risk which
in turn, may be attributed to the absence of well developed stock market.
Trading on equities takes place on all days of week (except Saturdays and
holidays declared by exchange in advance). On Friday only odd lot trading is
done. The market timings of the equities are shown in following table:-
Source: www.nepalstock.com
Note: - The exchange may however close the market on days other than
schedule holidays or may open the market on days originally declared as
5
holidays. The exchange may also extend, advance or reduce trading hours
when it deems fit necessary.
Rate of Brokerage for equity, Brokerage for Government Bond and Brokerage
for all other stocks which in not listed in 1 and 2 are given below:-
S.No Trading Amount Broke Trading Amount Broke Trading Amount Broke
rage rage rage
% % %
A Up to
Up to 50,000 1 0.20 Up to 50,000 0.75
5,00,000
B > 50,000 & < > 5,00,000 & > 50,000 & <
0.9 0.10 0.60
5,00,000 < 50,00,000 50,00,000
Source: www.nepalstock.com
The economic growth rate over the last decade has not been satisfactory.
Although the growth rate recorded over 5.0 percent in fiscal years 2007/08 and
2013/14, growth in other fiscal years hovered around 3 to 4 percent. The
average economic growth rate of the country in the past decade merely stood at
4.1 percent at basic prices. Likewise, the average growth rates of agriculture
and non-agriculture sectors remained at 3.2 percent and 4.7 percent
respectively in the previous decade.
The average growth rates of industry and services sectors under the non-
agriculture sector stood at 2.9 percent and 5.2 percent respectively in the last
ten years. Analysis of sector-wise economic growth for the last decade reveals
that though the growth rate of the services sector remained satisfactory,
industry sector’s growth rate did not record as such. Except for three fiscal
years, services sector recorded a growth of over 5.0 percent in the other fiscal
years.
During this period, the growth rate of agriculture sector was much more
influenced mainly by the climate factor and supply of seeds and fertilizers,
while the industry sector under the non-agriculture sector was greatly
influenced by the investment environment, labor problems, energy crisis, and
prolonged political transition among others. The structure of Nepalese
economy has been changing gradually. Contribution of agriculture and industry
sectors to GDP showed a declining trend while that of services sector showed
the opposite. From the sector-wise perspective, the contribution of primary,
secondary and tertiary sector contribution to nominal GDP are estimated to
remain at 33.7 percent, 14.1 percent and 52.3 percent respectively.
The ratio of consumption to GDP in current fiscal year climbed to 91.1 percent
from 89.9 percent in the previous year. The shares of the private sector,
government sector and non-profit institutions in final consumption expenditure
7
in current fiscal year stood at 85.7 percent, 12.3 percent and 2.0 percent
respectively. On private consumption side, shares of food items, nonfood items
and services have been remained at 65.3 percent, 23.9 percent and 10.8 percent
respectively.
Nepalese per capita GDP is estimated to have reached at Rs. 69,919 in current
fiscal year, which is equivalent to US $703. The total expenditure of GoN had
increased by 5.7 percent to Rs.358.63 billion in FY 2012/13. This is estimated
to increase by 44.2 percent to Rs. 517.24 billion in current fiscal year 2013/14.
Of this, recurrent and capital expenditure is estimated to remain at Rs. 353.42
billion, and Rs.84.10 billion respectively.
Similarly, price growth index of food and beverage group in annuals point-to-
point remained at 10.8 percent during the first eight months of current fiscal
year while that of nonfood items and services group has remained at 7.1
percent. The growth rates of price indices of these groups had stood at 11.3
percent and 9.3 percent respectively during the corresponding period of the
previous fiscal year.
Source:http://www.nepalstock.com/uploads/files/reports/20b0c000e358fb3dd1e
b7 c91140fd7d1.pdf
8
were several aftershocks as well as a subsequent earthquake event of
magnitude 7.3 on May 12.
• A combined 9,000 lives were lost, making this the worst disaster in
Nepal’s history in terms of human casualties. An assessment of the
impact shows that Nepal’s recovery needs amount to the equivalent of a
third of its economy.
• The Post Disaster Needs Assessment prices the damage at US$ 5.15
billion, losses at US$ 1.9 billion and recovery needs at US$ 6.6 billion.
• Early estimates suggest that an additional 3 percent of the population
has been pushed into poverty as a direct result of the earthquakes. This
translates into as many as a million more poor people. The economic
growth rate in FY 2014-2015 is expected to be the lowest in eight years,
at 3.04 percent.
Source: http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2015/06/16/nepal-
quake-assessment-shows-need-effective-recovery-efforts
• Gross domestic product (GDP) is the monetary value of all the finished
goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific
time period. Though GDP is usually calculated on an annual basis, it can
be calculated on a quarterly basis as well. GDP includes all private and
public consumption, government outlays, investments and exports
minus imports that occur within a defined territory. Put simply, GDP is a
broad measurement of a nation’s overall economic activity.
9
• Investments: - In national income analysis it is the value of that part of
economy output for any period that takes the form of new structure, new
producers, durable equipment, and change in inventories. Investment or
investing is a term with several closely-related meanings in business
management, finance and economics, related to saving or deferring
consumption. An asset is usually purchased, or equivalently a deposit is
made in a bank, in hopes of getting a future return or interest from it.
• Capital Formation: - Capital formation is a term used in national
accounts statistic and macro economics. It basically refers to the net
additions to the (physical) capital stock in accounting period or, to the
value of the increase of the capital stock; though it may occasionally
also refer to the total stock of capital formed.
• Market capitalization: - Market Capitalization is the total market value
of the shares outstanding of a publicly traded company; it is equal to the
share times the number of shares outstanding. As outstanding stock is
bought and sold in public markets, capitalization could be used as
a proxy for the public opinion of a company's net worth and is a
determining factor in some forms of stock valuation. The investment
community uses this figure to determine a company's size, as opposed to
sales or total asset figures.
• Value Traded: - Value traded is the value of the shares traded in the
domestic exchanges.
• Turnover: - Turnover equals to the value of the trades of domestic
shares on domestic exchanges divided by the value of listed domestic
shares.
• Volatility: - Volatility or in another word Standard Deviation is the
Measure of the state of instability. It measures the movement of the
stock market index during the certain period around the mean value.
Specifically, it is the variance of the market index during a certain
period.
• Size of Primary Market: - Size of primary market is the amount of
capital mobilization through the primary market during the study period.
10
for the economic development of the nation. The research focus the importance
once of financial system in mobilizing saving, formation of capital, expansion
of corporation and hence economic development.
Stock markets may affect economic activity through the creation of liquidity.
Many profitable investments require a long-term commitment of capital, but
investors are often reluctant to relinquish control of their savings for long
periods. Liquid equity markets make investment less risky and more attractive
because they allow savers to acquire an asset-equity and to sell it quickly and
cheaply if they need acce3ss to their savings or want to alter their portfolios. At
the same time, companies enjoy permanent access to capital raised through
equity issues. By facilitating longer-term, more profitable investments, liquid
markets improve the allocation of capital and enhance prospects for long-term
economic growth. Further, by making investment less risky and more
profitable, stock market liquidity can also lead to more investment. Put
succinctly, investors will come if they can leave.
There are alternative views about the effect of liquidity on long-term economic
growth; however, some analysts argue that very liquid markets encourage
investor myopia. Because they make it easy for dissatisfying investors to sell
quickly, liquid markets may weaken investor's commitment and reduce investor
incentives to exert corporate control by overseeing managers and monitoring
form performance and potential. According to this view, enhanced stock
market liquidity may actually hurt economic growth.
So, the study focuses of the relationship between stock market development
and economic growth in context of Nepal.
This present study is carried out to answer the following research questions:
11
• Does efficient stock market mobilize the saving effectively and help the
optimum allocation of saving.
• Do stock markets affect overall economic growth?
It represents the study to find out the problem, prospects and growth in the near
future. What policies can be formulated, what regulatory acts are needed and
necessity of amendments regarding the rules and regulation to develop it and
make the market perfect functioning. The standard is one of the elements to
stock market development. Financial statement should maintain accordingly
which fulfill the requirement of related parties needed information.
This study will be useful to the university students who are curious to know
about the current status of Nepalese stock market, its growth, issues and
challenges for the development of stock market. Similarly, the
recommendations that this study intends to propose on the basis of its findings
12
are expected to be useful for the policy makers associated with the
development of capital markets.
Chapter-I: Introduction
The first chapter of the study is introduction, which highlighted the basic
information of the research area, various problems, objectives, importance,
limitations and organization of the study with the subject matter consisting of
historical development of Tea industry in Nepal, a brief profile of the cited tea
manufacturing companies.
13
in related areas. It also establishes that the study link in a chain of research that
is developing and emerging knowledge about concerned field.
Besides above chapters, this study paper consist a separate appendix and
bibliography for those materials and books which are used in the process of
preparing this thesis report. It also gives important suggestions to the concerned
organization for better improvement.
At the end of the chapters bibliography and appendix has been incorporated.
14
CHAPTER – II
REVIEW OF LITERTURE
Review of literature means reviewing research studies or other relevant
prepositions in the related area of the study so that all the past studies, their
conclusions and deficiencies may be known and further research can be
conducted. The main reason for a full review of research in the past is to know
the outcomes of those investigations in area where similar concepts and
methodologies have been used successfully.
The first part of the chapter deals with the theoretical framework and the
second part are concerned with review of empirical works.
Such a view is not limited to the recent past; argues that the financial system
does not spur economic growth; financial development simply responds to
developments in the real sector. Thus, many influential economists give a very
minor role if any, to the financial system in economic growth (Robinson,
1952).
15
The stock market is expected to encourage savings by providing individuals
with an additional financial instrument that better meet their risk preferences
and liquidity needs. Better saving mobilization may increase the saving rate
(Levine and Zervos, 1996).
Market frictions
• Information costs
• Transaction Costs
Financial Functions
• Mobilize savings
• Allocate resources
• Exert corporate control
• Facilitate risk management
• Ease trading of goods, services, contracts
Channels to growth
• Capital accumulation
• Technological innovation
Growth
16
Stock markets also provide an avenue for growing companies to raise capital at
lower cost. In addition, companies in countries with developed stock markets
are less dependent on bank financing, which can reduce the risk of credit
crunch. Stock markets therefore are able to positively influence economic
growth through encouraging savings amongst individuals and providing
avenues for firm financing.
Efficient stock markets may also reduce the cost of information. They may do
so through the generation and dissemination of firm's specific information that
efficient stock price reveal. Stock markets are efficient if prices incorporate all
available information. Reducing the cost of acquiring information is expected
to facilitate and improve the acquisition of information about investment
opportunities and thereby improves resource allocation. Stock prices
determined in exchanges and other publicly available information may help
investor make better investment decisions and thereby ensure better allocation
of funds among corporations and as a result a higher rate of economic growth.
Stock market liquidity is expected to reduce the downside risk and costs of
investing in projects that do not pay off for a long time. With liquid market, the
initial investors do not lose access to their savings for the duration of the
investment project because they can easily, quickly and cheaply, sell their stake
in the company (Bencivenga and Smith, 1991).
Critics of the stock market argue that, stock market prices do not accurately
reflect the underlying fundamentals when speculative bubbles emerge in the
market (Binswanger, 1999).
17
In such situations, prices on stock market are not simply determined by
discounting the expected future cash flows, which according to the efficient
market hypothesis should reflect all currently available information about
fundamentals. Under this condition, the stock market develops its own
speculative growth dynamics, which may be guided by irrational behavior. This
irrationality is expected to adversely affect the real sector of the economy as it
is in danger of becoming the by-product of a casino.
Critics further argue that stock market liquidity may negatively influence the
corporate governance because very liquid stock market may encourage investor
myopia. Since investors can easily sell their shares, more liquid stock markets
may weaken investors.
Commitment and incentive for exert corporate control. In other words, instant
stock market liquidity may discourage investors from having long-term
commitment with firms whose shares they own and therefore create potential
corporate governance problem with serious ramifications for economic growth
(Bhide, 1994).
Critics also point out that the actual operation of the pricing and takeover
mechanism in well functioning stock markets lead to short term and lower rates
of long term investment. It also generates perverse incentives, rewarding
managers for their success in financial engineering rather than creating new
wealth through organic growth (Singh, 1997).
Therefore, prices of the stock market tend to be highly volatile and enable
profits within short periods. Moreover, because the stock market undervalues
long-term investment, managers are not encouraged to undertake long-term
investments since their activities are judged by the performance of a company's
financial assets, which may harm long run prospects of companies
(Binswanger, 1999).
In addition, empirical evidence shows that the takeover mechanism does not
perform a disciplinary function and that competitive selection in the market for
corporate control takes place much more on the basis of size rather than
performance (Singh, 1997).
The study on industrial production and prices of common stock, 1953-1975 has
revealed that the stock market and economic activity move in similar cyclical
patterns, this fundamental relationship shows that stock prices are meaningful
in the sense of reflecting real economic variables (Barry, 1975).
18
The indicators of stock market development reflect the development of an
economy. It is important to predict the course of the national economy because
economic activity affects corporative profits, investor attitudes and
expectations and ultimately security prices. The key for the analyst is that
overall economic activity manifests itself in the behavior of stock price or stock
market. This linkage between economic activity and the stock market is critical
(Fisher and Jordan, 1991).
Schwartz found in third joint study that government bonds, treasury bills and
real estate compensate somewhat for unexpected inflation. The surprising
result, however, is that common stock returns are negatively correlated with
both expected and unexpected inflation. Rather than being compensated for
inflation, investors on common stock have been penalized (Schwartz, 1975).
(a) Size
Market capitalization measures the size of stock market and equals the value of
listed domestic shares on domestic exchanges. Although large markets do not
necessarily function effectively and taxes may distort incentives to list on the
exchange, many observers use capitalization as an indicator of market
development.
First, turnover equals the value of the trades of domestic shares on domestic
exchange divided by the value of listed domestic shares. Turnover measures
the volume of domestic equities traded on domestic exchanges relative to the
size of market. High turnover is often used as an indicator of low transaction
costs. Importantly, a large stock market is not necessarily a liquid market: a
large but inactive market will have large capitalization but small turnover.
The second measures of market liquidity is value traded, which equals the
value of the trades of domestic shares on domestic exchange divided by GDP
while not a direct measure of trading costs or the uncertainty associated with
trading on a particular exchange, theoretical models of stock market liquidity
and economic growth directly motivate value traded. Value traded measures
19
trading volume as a share of national output and should therefore positively
reflect liquidity on an economy wide basis.
Value traded may be importantly different from turnover. While value traded
captures trading relative to the size of the economy, turnover measures trading
relative to the size of the stock market. Thus, a small and liquid market will
have high turnover, but small value traded.
(c) Volatility
(d) Concentration
In other words:
Q = At F {Kt, Lt}
Where,
21
K = Value of service rendered by capital
A = Level of efficiency
t = Time
King and Levine (1993a, 1993b, and 1993c) study 80 countries over the
period 1960-1989 systematically, controlling for other factors affecting long
run growth, examine the capital accumulation and productivity growth
channels, construct additional measures of the level of financial development
and analyze whether the level of financial development predicts long-run
economic growth, capital accumulation and productivity growth. They use four
measures of the level of financial development. The first measure, depth,
measures the size of financial intermediaries and equals liquid liabilities of the
financial system (currency plus demand and interest bearing liabilities of banks
and non-bank financial intermediaries) divided by GDP. The second measure,
bank, measures the degree to which the central bank versus commercial banks
are allocating credit. Bank equals the ratio of bank credit divided by bank credit
plus central bank domestic assets. The third measure, private, equals the ratio
of credit allocated to private enterprises to total domestic credit (excluding
credit to banks). The fourth measure, privy equals credit to private enterprises
divided by GDP king and Levine (1993b, 1993c) then assess the strength of the
empirical relationship between each of these four indicators of the level of
financial development averaged over the 1960-1989 period "F", and three
growth indicators also averaged over 1960-1989 period, "G". In this way theses
four measures completely affects the accumulation, growth and present
condition of the stock market and economic growth.
The three growth indicators are as follows: (i) the average rate of real per
capital GDP growth, (ii) the average rate of growth in the capital stock per
person and (iii) total productivity growth which is a sale residual defined as
real per capital GDP growth minus (0.3) times the growth rate of capital per
person. In other words, if "F (i)" represents the value the "ith" growth indicators
and "x" represents a matrix of conditioning information to control for other
factors associated with economic growth (e.g. income per capital, education,
political stability, indicators of exchange rates, trade, fiscal and monetary
22
policy) then the following regression on cross section of 77 countries come
into existence.
24
country time-series regression of forty-one countries from 1976 to 1993. The
finding revealed a strong correlation between overall stock market
development and long-run economic growth, implying a positive relationship
between stock market development and economic growth.
Filer, Hanousek and Campos (1999) examines the relationship between stock
market development and economic growth using Granger causality tests for 70
countries for varying time periods beginning in 1985 and ending in 1997. They
find little relationship between stock market activity and future economic
growth, especially for the lower income countries.
Beck and Levine (2001) investigates the impact of stock markets and banks on
economic growth, using a panel data set for the period 1976-98 and applying
recent GMM techniques developed for dynamic panels. On aggregate, they
found that stock markets and banks positively influence economic growth.
Gevit (2007) A casual inspection of stock market prices and GDP in developed
market economies reveals that these tend to move together over time. This
raises the question as to what is the reason for such a relationship. Explaining
such a relationship involves assessing the underlying direction of causality.
Does the stock market affect GDP, or is the causality in the opposite direction,
such that GDP triggers fluctuations in the stock market? This paper employs
the Granger causality test in order to examine causality direction. The focus of
the paper is on long-term trends and the evidence presented is garnered from
five of the top ten stock markets in the world in terms of market capitalization.
25
growth. The authors also discovered a feedback relationship between stock
market development and economic growth in the long run. However, in the
short run, the causality runs only from stock market development to economic
growth.
26
implies that the Zambian stock exchange could help promote further economic
growth in the country and should therefore be integrated in the whole economic
system.
Sahu & Dhiman (2011) made an attempt to explore the causal relationship
between stock market indicators and macro economic variables of India by
using both correlation and Ganger Causality regression techniques for the
period 1981 to 2006. The findings of this study reveal that there is no causal
relationship between stock market indicator i.e. SENSEX of Bombay stock
exchange and real gross domestic product of India despite they being highly
correlated. Therefore it is concluded that BSE SENSEX cannot yet be called as
an “indicator” of India’s growth and development.
Alajekwu, & Achugbu (2012) this study investigated the role of stock market
development on economic growth of Nigeria using a 15-year time series data
from 1994 - 2008. The method of analysis used is Ordinary Least Square
(OLS) techniques. The study measures the relationship between stock market
27
development indices and economic growth. The stock market capitalization
ratio was used as a proxy for market size while value traded ratio and turnover
ratio were used as proxy for market liquidity. The results show that market
capitalization and value traded ratios have a very weak negative correlation
with economic growth while turnover ratio has a very strong positive
correlation with economic growth. Also, stock market capitalization has a
strong positive correlation with stock turnover ratio. This result implies that
liquidity has propensity to spur economic growth in Nigeria and that market
capitalization influences market liquidity. We should view with caution the
notion that stock market size is not significant for economic growth since
multi-co linearity exists in the data used for this analysis.
1981 Mahat It examines the state of capital markets and the development
of financial institutions in the country. The growth of the
financial institutions has been examined both in terms of the
growth in the number of financial institutions and in terms
of the growth in their assets. Their role in the national
economy has been evaluated in terms of some indicators
such as total financial institutions issue ratio and assets to
GDP ratio.
28
market in overall economic growth. He found that the size
of primer as well secondary market has the positive,
influence on the overall size of the economic. He further
states that increasing issue of equity by firms indicates that
the investors are willing to take part in the investment
process and thus drive the economic force and strongly
performing stock market helps prevails the optimism in the
overall economy.
2004 Sindurkar Studies about the relationship between stock market and
economic growth, particularly at the role of stock market in
economic growth. He used only correlation analysis and
time series analysis in the study. He concludes that the
significant relationship does not exist between GDP and
NEPSE index. However, the relationship of GDP with
market capitalization and number of listed companies is
significant the correlation between economic growth rate
and turnover velocity is unexpected and insignificant.
29
2010 Joshi The relation between stock market development and
economic growth in Nepal for period of mid July 1994 to
mid July 2008 by using Karl Pearson correlation. The study
finds that stock market development is not significantly
associated with economic growth during mid July 1994 to
mid July 2000 while there is a positive relation between
stock market development and economic growth during mid
July 2000 to mid July 2008.The findings indicate that stock
market has positive contribution to economic growth in
Nepal.
2010 Pradhan In this study assessed equity share price behavior in Nepal
& KC and tested the hypothesis that share price changes are
independent using weekly data of 26 listed companies from
mid-July 2005 to mid-July 2008. They found that random
walk hypothesis holds for less frequently traded stocks but
do not hold for highly traded stocks at NEPSE.
2012 Kharel & The study focuses on the long standing debate regarding the
Pokhrel relative merits of bank vs. capital market-based financial
system in promoting economic growth in the context of
Nepal. Using Johansen's co integrating vector error
correction model based on annual data from 1993/1994 to
2010/2011; we conclude that financial structure matters for
economic growth in Nepal. Particularly, our empirical result
suggests that Nepalese banking sector is more growth
enhancing relative to capital market.
30
economic growth in Nepal. Using 26 annual observations
on the time series of real GDP, market capitalization, annual
turnover from Mid-July 1988 to Mid-July 2013, the results
of co-integrated regression showed that both stock market
size and liquidity can predict the economic growth of Nepal
over the sample period. Employing Engle-Granger
procedures, the study also concluded that stock market size
and liquidity are co-integrated with economic growth of
Nepal and hence they are interrelated with each other in the
long run. Besides, the Johansen’s method of co-integration
test also confirmed the stable long-run equilibrium.
2014 Shrestha The study examines the determinants of the stock index
& Subedi (NEPSE) in Nepal using monthly data for the period of mid-
August 2000 to mid-July 2014. In order to incorporate the
major changes in politics and NRB’s policy on lending
against collateral of shares, two dummy variables have also
been used. The correlation analysis shows the existence of
the significant relationship between the NEPSE index and
macro variables chosen for the study such as Consumer
Price Index, Broad Money and Treasury Bill Rate. Time
series properties of selected variables have been examined.
Moreover, empirical results obtained from OLS estimations
of behavioral equations reveal that the NEPSE index is
found to respond positively to inflation and broad money
growth, and negatively to treasury bills rate. This suggests
that, in Nepal, share investors seem to take equities as a
hedge against inflation and consider stock as an alternative
financial instrument. More importantly, stock market has
been found to respond significantly to changes in political
environment and the policy of NRB.
From the above mentioned Review of Nepalese Studies works makes it clear
that the development of the stock market is a necessary factor for modern day
economy. Therefore, it is obvious that stock markets be well-functioning for
the sustainable economic development. Firms need capital to grow and finance
their investment needs. It requires more efficient way of raising funds. If the
investment is required for new technology for the projects with long-gestation
period, premature liquidation of the capital is always on cards without the
31
existence of liquid and well-functioning stock markets. Thus, it assumes a
significant role in present day economics. Because of its primary stage of
growth and stabilization, the contribution of Nepalese stock market to the
economy is yet to be recognized. Though, there has been a lot of studies
explaining on the relationship between stock market and economic growth in
other contexts, such a study is still due to come in our context. This study aims
to fill the gap by assessing the contribution of NEPSE and primary stock
market to the overall economic growth of the economy.
There is a gap of time period which is fulfilled by this study. The present
economic scenario is also change. The using tools of this study are also
different from other previous studies.
The study incorporates the relationship between stock market and economic
growth in Nepal. Also Nepal's stock market has been undergoing significant
changes in the last few years with the introduction of new rules and bylaws,
improvement in the infrastructure of trading and entry of mutual funds and
market makers. This research will attempt to fill the research gap by exploring
the relationship of the NEPSE index with economic variables using the updated
stock market data of Nepal.
32
CHAPTER – III
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
The research methodology is the general research strategy that outlines the way
in which research is to be undertaken and, among other things, identifies the
methods to be used in it. These methods, described in the methodology, define
the means or modes of data collection or, sometimes, how a specific result is to
be calculated.
33
The supplementary data and information have been acquired from various
sources like;
34
market is compared with market capitalization, turnover and value traded. It
is done to find some kind of relationship between primary markets and
secondary markets.
• To exhibit the trends of different indicators of economic growth GDP,
saving, investment and capital formation and change in stock during study
period are presented.
• To determine the relationship between development of stock market and
economic growth, the trends of primary market's amount of equity issuance
and NEPSE index are compared with the factors of growth such as GDP,
saving, investment, capital formation.
Where,
ഥ = Arithmetic Mean
X
N = Number of items
35
also calculates the standard deviation of various variables used in the study
period 2007/2008 to 2014/2015.
∑ሺ୶ି୶ത)మ
Standard Deviation (S.D.) = ට
୬
Where,
N = Number of items
Where,
xത = Mean
The higher CV denotes to the higher fluctuation of variables and vice-versa.
36
The Coefficient of correlation is defined by the following formula:-
∑௫௬
Coefficient of correlation (rXY) =
ඥ୶మ ×ඥ୷మ
Where,
x=X- x
ത
y=Y- Y
In this study, coefficient of correlation is calculated between various indicators
of stock market, such as market capitalization, value traded, turnover,
volatility, and size of primary market and various indicators of economic
growth, such as, gross domestic product, saving, investment and capital
formation.
37
held fixed. Most commonly, regression analysis estimates the conditional
expectation of the dependent variable given the independent variables – that is,
the average value of the dependent variable when the independent variables are
fixed. Less commonly, the focus is on a quintile, or other location parameter of
the conditional distribution of the dependent variable given the independent
variables. In all cases, the estimation target is a function of the independent
variables called the regression function. In regression analysis, it is also of
interest to characterize the variation of the dependent variable around the
regression function which can be described by a probability distribution.
The main objective of this study is to found the relationship between stock
market and economy growth. The variables that will be used in the models are
Gross Domestic Product (GDP), savings (S), Investment (I), Capital Formation
(CF), Market Capitalization (MC), Value of Traded Shares (VT), Turnover
(TO), Size of Primary Market (PM) and Volatility of Stock Returns (V).
Where,
MC = Market Capitalization
TO = Turnover of Shares
38
Similarly, theoretical statement of the model is that of savings (S) may be
regarded as subject to the constraints of various stock market related variables.
As an approximation of the theory, the function may be written as;
Where,
S = Savings
Where,
I = Investments
Finally, theoretical statement of the model is that of capital formation (CF) may
be regarded as subject to the constraints of various stock market related
variables. As an approximation of the theory, the function may be written as;
Where,
CF = Capital Formation
Equations (3.1) to (3.8) are concerned with the major part of this study. These
equations are used to assess the nature of relationship between various stock
market indicators and economic growth indicators.
39
3.4.6.1 Regression Constant (a)
The value of constant, which is the intercept of the model, indicates the average
level of dependent variable when independent variable is zero. In another
words, it is better to understand that 'a' constant indicates the mean or average
effect on dependent variable of all the variables omitted from the model. In this
study, regression constant is calculated for selected dependent and independent
variables specified in the model, which is presented above.
40
quantitative analysis of the macroeconomic relationship for Nepalese economy
may not be feasible and justified.
This study is based on the data for the period of eight years from 2007/2008 to
2014/2015. It tries to find out the relationship between stock market and
economic growth. For this purpose the period of eight years is not adequate to
form any kind of relationship but an attempt has been made in that direction.
The following are the main limitations of this study.
• The study is based on the period of only eight years i.e. since 2007/2008
to 2014/2015, so the study period may have been regarded as shorter
and inference should have to be made with caution.
• For Year 2014/15 data are based on the first 8 months of the current
fiscal year.
• Capital formation and Investment for year 2014/15 are the average of
past 7 year data, due to unavailable of actual information.
• The study is based on yearly data only, hence making it a study of eight
observations only. Had the database been efficient enough and monthly
or quarterly data on stock market and growth been available, the result
might have been for better and reliable than what is expected from this
analysis.
• The study is based on secondary sources of data, authenticity of which
may be questioned, as there are variations in the some data variable
across the sources.
• The data on some variables are not readily available, and hence are
estimated by standard form of relationship.
• The stock market in Nepal is in its early stage of growth and
stabilization. The investors are gradually becoming aware of the stock
market activities and the authorities are realizing that the development
of a strong stock market is highly needed. But, it may be a little too fast
to measure the concrete contribution made by stock market to the
economy and attempt to from a certain pattern of relationship. There
may form no sensible relation at all or the significance of the
relationship may have to be questioned.
• The assumption that the strong and efficient stock market help to
mobilize saving and efficient allocate May not be true in our case since
the Nepalese stock market is not strongly efficient. Therefore, the study
in this direction may lead nowhere at the stage, but it is worth
attempting.
41
To overcome some of these limitations and support the hypothesis that the
stock market help to channelize the saving hence increase the investment
and expand the corporate base, the main apart of the study is supported by
different tools and techniques used.
42
CHAPTER – IV
43
Figure 4.1: Presentation of log values of the primary issue amount (PM) and
NEPSE INDEX over the study period.
3.5
3
2.5
Log Values
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
NEPSE Index 2.983788 2.874539 2.679182 2.559727 2.590775 2.714606 3.015405 2.982827
P.M. 0.998295 1.225847 1.034236 0.835715 0.469823 1.028592 0.860953 0.948916
Fiscal Year
Source: - Appendix IV
The aforementioned figure 4.1 shows that the horizontal line is the converted
log values of NEPSE Index and Size of primary market and the vertical line is
the study period (Fiscal Year) 2007/08 to 2014/15. The comparison between
Size of Primary market and NEPSE Index opens the mark for indicating the
development pace of a country. They are the indication of whole country’s
economic to average growth. The size of primary market and NEPSE Index
both are in fluctuate position. NEPSE index is high in year 2013/14 and the
Size of Primary market in year 2008/09. Though in the year 2011/12 there was
less equity issues in the market in comparison with other year and the lower
Index in year 2010/11. Primary and secondary market presents normal sign
during study period though the stock market in Nepal is developing slowly.
44
Figure: 4.2: Presentation of log values of market Capitalization (MC), Value
traded (VT) and size of the primary Market (PM) for the study period.
2.5
2
Log Values
1.5
0.5
0
2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
MC 2.563774 2.710065 2.576193 2.509853 2.566157 2.711378 3.024143 2.995371
VT 1.358330 1.336081 1.073758 0.823819 1.011688 1.343385 1.888171 1.815126
PM 0.998295 1.225847 1.034236 0.835715 0.469823 1.028592 0.860953 0.948916
Source: - Appendix IV
This figure 4.2 displays that the size of primary market (PM) is compared with
market capitalization (MC) and Value Traded (VT) which present even more
encouraging signs. In the fiscal year 20011/12 MC and PM were decreased
slowly but in the same period VT is increased rapidly. Moreover after the fiscal
year 2012/13 all three variables were increased in increasing trend but the fiscal
year 2014/15 seen as exception where value trades is decreased even though
market capitalization and size of primary market were increased in similar
trend. Since it is assumed that the time increases, with it the activities in the
stock market also increase. More firms are listed in the market; move investors
participate in investing activities, more information become available in the
market and so on. These activities have positive impact on MC, VT, and PM
and from Figure 4.2 we can see it to be true.
45
Figure 4.3: Comparison of the log value of size of the primary market (PM)
and NEPSE Index with the log values of Gross Domestic Product (GDP),
Savings (S) Investment (I) and Capital Formation (CF) for the study period.
3.5
2.5
2
Log Values
1.5
0.5
0
2007/0 2008/0 2009/1 2010/1 2011/1 2012/1 2013/1 2014/1
8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5
GDP 2.71792 2.73456 2.75266 2.76900 2.78859 2.80468 2.82607 2.83903
CF 2.19936 2.23561 2.33586 2.34879 2.32641 2.37639 2.43353 2.32853
S 1.70914 1.70768 1.80956 1.91513 1.82998 1.82999 1.86350 1.89594
I 2.05836 2.06293 2.09901 2.09942 2.10665 2.15879 2.20265 2.11525
PM 0.99829 1.22584 1.03423 0.83571 0.46982 1.02859 0.86095 0.94891
NEPSE
2.98378 2.87454 2.67918 2.55972 2.59077 2.71460 3.01540 2.98282
Index
Source: - Appendix IV
While comparing PM and GDP it can be said that PM also influences GDP
through saving, investment and Capital formation. In case of secondary market
of NEPSE index, since it was slightly decreased in the beginning of the study
period, but after the fiscal year 2011/12 it staring increasing for two years.
Hence there is positive relationship between the stock market and the national
economy.
46
4.2 Summary Statistics
Presentation of Minimum value, Maximum Value, mean, Standard Deviation
and Coefficient of Variation of the indicators of stock market development and
economic growth.
Table 4.1
Table 4.1 presents the clear picture of summary statistics on the four economic
growth indicators and six stock market development indicators. We have the
47
data for eight years period from 2007/08 to 2014/15 of Nepal. Arithmetic mean
is average of random variable which can be used for further analysis. The
arithmetic mean of Gross Domestic Product, Saving, Investment, Capital
Formation, Market Capitalization, Value Traded, Turnover, Volatility, Size of
Primary Market and NEPSE Index are 603.875, 66.9859, 130.393, 213.0758,
644.12315, 33.99577, 5.236146445, 90.87571429, 10.604775 and 779.7785714
respectively. All the data are presented in rupees in billion except turnover is
the percentage of value traded to market capitalization, volatility is the standard
deviation of monthly NEPSE index and NEPSE index in points.
Hence the table 4.1 shows substantial variance among the growth and stock
market development indicators. The value traded has the highest CV of
79.2149%, which represents there is high fluctuation of the value traded among
the study period. In another words, there is 79.2149% variation of the amount
of value traded among study period. Similarly the GDP has the lowest CV of
9.29825%, which represents there is less fluctuation of amount of GDP among
study period. In another words there is 6.9994% variation in amount of GDP
among study period.
48
Table 4.2:- Correlation Matrix
GDP S I CF MC VT TO V PM NI
GDP 1
S 0.737 1
I 0.770 0.511 1
Where,
GDP = Gross Domestic Product
S = Saving
I = Investment
CF = Capital Formation
MC = Market Capitalization
VT = Value Traded
TO = Turnover Volatility,
PM = Size of Primary Market and
NI = NEPSE Index at the end of the year.
Table 4.2 presents the correlations. The following correlations are worth
highlighting. Obviously, there is the strong correlation between GDP with
saving, investment and capital formation with the coefficient 0.737, 0.77 and
0.761 respectively. The interesting correlation prevails between the stock
market indicator Market Capitalization (MC) and growth indicators i.e. Gross
Domestic Product (GDP), Saving (S), Investment (I) and Capital Formation
49
(CF). The correlation coefficient between MC and GDP is 0.78, between MC
and S is 0.364, between MC and I is 0.656 and between MC and CF is 0.516.
Some other indicators of stock market are also related to the economic growth
indicators. The Value Traded (VT), which is equal to the amount of turnover in
domestic stock market, has significant correlations with Gross Domestic
Product (GDP), Saving (S), Investment (I), and Capital Formation (CF). The
correlation coefficients between VT and GDP is 0.705, between VT and S is
0.29, between VT and I is 0.63 and between VT and CF is 0.456.
Higher the Value Traded is regarded as the good indicator of stock market that
contributes positively towards the economy. Thus significant relationship of
Value Traded to GDP, Saving, Investment and Capital Formation is
meaningful. Higher the value traded means that the stock market performing
better with the maximum participation of the investors. If more investors are
involved in the market savings, investment and capital formations are likely to
increase and hence the GDP. Therefore, the positive significant correlations are
all and expected.
50
turnover is the indicator of the more liquid market. The TO positive correlation
with Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Investment (I), and Capital Formation
(CF) and negative correlation with Saving (S). The Correlation coefficients
between TO and GDP is 0.38, between TO and S is -0.106, between TO and I
is 0.383 and between TO and CF is 0.097. Though the correlations of stock
market liquidity indicator TO with economic growth indicators, such as GDP, I
and CF are positive but the correlations are insignificant and unexpected. This
unexpected and insignificant correlation may be due to the other unobserved
factors as described in limitation.
The relationship between the size of the Primary Market (PM), and economic
growth indicators is negative significant. For instance, the coefficients of
correlation between PM and GDP is -.043, between PM and S is -0.598,
between PM and I is -0.339 and between PM and CF is -.0445. On the basis of
these relationships, few interesting implications can be observed. Strongly
performing secondary market is also a cause of growing activities in the
primary market. With their prices appreciating in the secondary market, firms
feel at case to go for the equity issue in the primary market if and when the
situation arises, the investors in the primary markets also look for the
productive and profitable investment and invest in the firm's shares that are
performing well in the secondary markets. This interrelation between primary
and secondary market also explains the efficiency of the market. And the
market efficiency is closely related to the efficiency of the economy except
ignoring some of the coefficient values.
51
Table 4.3: Regression of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Market
Capitalization (MC), Value Traded (VT), Turnover (TO), Volatility (V), Size
of Primary Market (PM) and NEPSE Index (NI).
Regression Equation:
Table 4.3
MC VT TO V PM NI R2
Source: Appendix V
Where,
Table 4.3 presents the results of regression where dependent variable is gross
domestic product and stock market indicators are the independent variables.
The results presented in table 4.3 indicate that the estimated coefficients of
Market Capitalization and Turnover have positive and expected signs but the
coefficients of Value Traded, Volatility, Size of Primary Market and NEPSE
Index have negative signs. The regression coefficient of market capitalization
is 0.367, which indicates 10% change in market capitalization will lead 3.67%
change in gross domestic product. But the regression coefficient of Value
Traded, Volatility, Size of Primary Market and NEPSE Index are -2.065, -
0.277, -2.467 and -0.210 respectively which indicates there are inverse relation
between value traded, volatility, size of primary market and NEPSE Index with
gross domestic product. The regression coefficient of turnover is 25.892 which
is positive and high. It is due to the comparison of data between amount in
rupees and percentage.
52
The value of R2 is 0.996 meaning that about 100% of the variability in gross
domestic product is explained by market capitalization, value traded, turnover,
volatility, size of primary market and NEPSE Index.
These all the results, however, should be viewed very skeptically because all
the results are based on only eight years observations (from 2007/08 to
2014/15). But the reasons for the positive relations of market capitalization and
turnover are clear. The relation of gross domestic product with market
capitalization is that as market capitalization is the market value of all listed
outstanding share and the price element is associated with it. Pricing of
securities is done with a lot of aspects keeping in view. Some factors are the
profitability of the firm, its investment plans and its saving position. If prices of
stocks are increasing its shows that the listed firms on an average have got
good investment projects in their hands and are expected to be turned profitable
in the future.
Regression Equation:
53
Table 4.4
MC VT TO V PM NI R2
Source: Appendix VI
Where,
Table 4.4 presents the results of regression where dependent variable is saving
and stock market indicators are independent variables. The results presented in
table 4.4 indicate that only two coefficient sign is as expected. The coefficient
of market capitalization, turnover, volatility and NEPSE Index are negative.
The positive relation between Size of Primary Market has also the similar
explanation. And finally negative relationship of market capitalization,
turnover, volatility and NEPSE Index is not understandable the results may
have been driven by other factors or wrong assumptions.
54
The value of R2 is 0.98, which indicates there is sufficient variability in saving
explained by market capitalization, value traded, turnover, volatility, size of
primary market and NEPSE Index.
Table 4.5
MC VT TO V PM NI R2
Where
55
change in value traded will lead 20.89% change in investment. But the
regression coefficient of market capitalization and NEPSE Index are -0.111 and
-0.183 respectively, which indicates there is inverse relation between market
capitalization and NEPSE Index with investment. The regression coefficient of
turnover is 15.061, which is highly positive; it is because of comparison
between amount in rupees and percentage. Similarly the regression coefficient
of volatility and size of primary market is 0.125 and 0.578 respectively, which
indicates 10% change in size of primary market and volatility leads 1.25% and
5.78% change in investment respectively.
Table 4.6
MC VT TO V PM NI R2
Where,
56
(ii) Independent Variable: - Market Capitalization (MC), Value
Traded (VT), Turnover (TO), Volatility (V), Size of Primary
Market (PM) and NEPSE Index (NI).
(iii) R2 = Adjusted Coefficient of Multiple Determination
Table 4.6 presents the results of regression where dependent variable is capital
formation and stock market indicator are independent variables. The results
presented in table 4.6 indicate that the estimated coefficients of value traded,
turnover, volatility and size of primary market have positive and expected signs
but the coefficients of market capitalization and NEPSE Index have negative
signs. From the results presented in table 4.6, it can be seen that the coefficients
of four variables i.e. value traded, turnover, volatility and size of primary
market are positive which is consistent with the assumption of positive
relationship between capital formation and stock market development. But the
coefficient of two variables i.e. market capitalization and NEPSE Index are
negative which is not consistent with the assumption.
The value of R2 is 0.993 meaning that about 100% of the variability in capital
formation is explained by market capitalization, value traded, turnover,
volatility, size of primary market and NEPSE Index.
The analysis of the relationship between the stock market variables such a s
market capitalization, value traded, turnover, volatility, size of primary market
and NEPSE Index and the aggregate economic growth variables such as gross
domestic product, saving, investments and capital formation is performed. The
results obtained in analysis are mixed type. In some of the cases, the
relationship found to be consistent with the assumption.
The chapter presented the data and analyzed those data in the context of the
objectives of the study. In the next chapter, the major finding of the study,
summary and conclusion are outlined along with the recommendation for
future research possibilities in this area.
57
Trend Analysis
Correlation Analysis
58
Since, some of the coefficients are only negative and most of the
coefficients are positive, the researcher found that the relationship between
stock market and economic growth in Nepal is satisfactory.
Regression Analysis
59
CHAPTER – V
Stock market works as the medium to channelize the saving resources towards
the productive uses in the form of investment. Whereas secondary stock market
does it by influencing the perception of investors and firms about the economic
activities and prospect, the primary market plays the vital role directly in
increasing the investment level and thus, capital stock of firms through
mobilizing the savings of individual investors as well as institutional bodies.
An efficient stock market is the medium through which only productive firms
that have better performance can easily raise capital through primary markets.
This type of behavior of efficient market enhances the economic growth
process by the productivity growth. Stock markets also help agents manage
liquidity and productivity risk by eliminating premature capital liquidation
which also increases the firm's productivity. Stock market works as a vehicle
for raising capital for firms. Stock markets help investors to diversify their
wealth across variety of assets. The companies enjoy permanent access to
capital in firms that augment human capital and technologies. The more
resource allocated to the firms, the more rapid will be economic growth.
Efficient stock markets perform this role by reducing the liquidity risk to the
investors.
This study tries to assessing the role of stock market in economic growth in the
context of Nepal. The study is totally based on the secondary data. For the
purpose of the study objectives, the data on aggregate economic variables such
as Gross Domestic Product, Saving, Investment, Capital Formation and stock
market variables such as Market Capitalization, Value Traded, Turnover,
60
Volatility, Size of Primary Market and NEPSE Index were collected from the
fiscal year 2007/08 to 2014/15.
The results obtained from this analysis on the aggregate economic growth
variables and stock market variables should be viewed quite skeptically and
while drawing conclusion, a cautious and calculative process is required. The
main reason for this is that the observation period for the study is only 8 (from
2007/08 to 2014/15), because of unavailability of quarterly data, only yearly
data have been used which is not that much sufficient for the regression
analysis.
5.2 Conclusion
In this study the relationship between stock market and economic growth
seems the mixed result. Overall Nepalese economy is in fluctuating situation.
While calculating, the Trend Analysis is shown that the positive results
between economic growth and stock market.
61
In this study some of the coefficients are only negative and most of the
coefficients are positive, so that the relationship between stock market and
economic growth in Nepal is satisfactory.
In Regression analysis most of the values are positive, which signs are
expected and some of the values have negative signs which is unexpected part
of the study.
At last but not least a few very interesting inferences can be made from this
research.
5.3 Recommendations
As is found by the numerous research works, including this particular one, the
study has reached to the following recommendations are suggested.
Finally, there is a lot of scope for research in this particular field. Finding the
contribution of stock market to the economy and research study in this area are
new phenomena. Therefore, in case of Nepal, as well, the extended and
comprehensive study in this field will be just as timely and appropriate. Even,
this particular study can be extended by including more and more specific
variables and designing the research ore appropriately. Another aspect of future
research may be not merely the casual relationship between stock market and
economic growth variables but mainly focus on the channels through which the
stock market are able to influence the growth process positively.
63
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Books
Fischer, D.E. & Jordan, R.J. (1991), Security Analysis and Portfolio
Management, New Jersey: Prentice Hall, pp. 622-36
Fisher, D.E. & Ronald, J.J. (2000), Security Analysis and Portfolio
Management, New Delhi: Prentice Hall of India.
Mahat, R.S. (1981), Capital Market: Financial Flows and Industrial Finance
in Nepal, Kathmandu: Sajha Prakashan, Pp. 1-21.
Paudel, R.B., Baral, K.J., Gautam, R.R. & Rana, S.B. (2006), Fundamentals
of Corporate Finance, Kathmandu: Asmita Publication.
Ritter, L.S. & Silber W.L. (1993), Principles of money Banking and Financial
Markets, United States: Basic Books, Pp. 46-55.
Sharpe, W.F., et.al. (1999), Investments, New Delhi: Prentice Hall of India
Pvt. Ltd.
Wolf, H.K & Pant, P.R. (2005), Social Science Research and Thesis Writing,
Kathmandu: Buddha Academic Enterprises Pvt. Ltd.
Journals, Articles and Reports
Barry, B. (1975), The Stock Market and the Economy, Brookings Papers on
Economic Activity, Pp. 257-90.
Levine, R. and Zervos, S. (1996), Stock Market Development and Long Run
Growth, The World Bank Economic Review, Pp. 942-63.
Levine, R., and Zervos, S. (1996), Stock Market Development and Long-run
Growth, World Bank Economic Review, 10 (2):323-339.
Sahu, N.R & Dhiman, D. H. (2011), Correlation and Causality between Stock
Market and Macro Economic Variables in India: an Empirical Study,
International Conference on E-business, Management and Economics
IPEDR Vol.3.
Schwartz, A. J. (1975), Monetary Trends in the United States and the United
Kingdom, Journal of Economic History.
Thesis
Gevit, V. (2007), The Relationship between the stock market and the
economy: experience from international financial markets, Malta:
University of Malta.
Shrestha, M.B. (2038 B.S.), The Role of Securities marketing in the Economic
Development of Nepal, Kathmandu: Central Department of Economics,
T.U.
Websites
www.bizmandu.com
www.cbs.gov.np
www.cdsnp.com
www.google.com/search
www.investopedia.com
www.karkibkas.blogspot.com
www.mof.gov.np
www.nepalstock.com
www.nrb.org.com
www.sebon.com
www.sharesansar.com
www.worldbank.org
APPENDIX – I
Monthly NEPSE Index from the fiscal year 2007/08 to 2014/15 (Base: 1994, Feb = 100)
Size of
Market Value Turnover
Volatility Primary NEPSE Index
Capitalization Traded (%)
Year GDP Savings Investments Capital Formation Market
2007/08 2.71792 1.709146 2.058364141 2.199362654 2.563774669 1.358331 0.794556 2.000390689 0.998295092 2.98378861
2008/09 2.73456 1.707688 2.062939425 2.235619084 2.710065721 1.336081 0.626016 2.170643023 1.225847938 2.874539797
2009/10 2.752663 1.809568 2.099015918 2.335861717 2.576193066 1.073759 0.497566 1.913177834 1.034236894 2.679182515
2010/11 2.769008 1.915136 2.099421644 2.348791468 2.509853207 0.82382 0.313966 1.576226137 0.835715931 2.559727127
2011/12 2.788593 1.829985 2.106655891 2.326411651 2.566157025 1.011689 0.445532 1.529943402 0.469823488 2.590774981
2012/13 2.804685 1.82999 2.158792954 2.376393347 2.711378711 1.343385 0.632006 1.661718058 1.028592398 2.714606346
2013/14 2.826075 1.863501 2.20265176 2.433529826 3.024143105 1.888171 0.864028 2.172048034 0.86095337 3.015405865
2014/15 2.839038 1.895943 2.115254277 2.328534128 2.995371906 1.815126 0.819754 1.60162548 0.948916905 2.982827317
APPENDIX – V
Data for calculation of Multiple Regression between Gross Domestic Product with Stock Market Variables
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.99794868
R Square 0.995901568
Adjusted R Square 0.971310979
Standard Error 10.16722301
Observations 8
ANOVA
df SS F Significance F
Regression 6 25119.06258 4186.51 40.4993 0.119708045
Residual 1 103.3724238 103.3724
Total 7 25222.435
Lower Upper
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% 95.0% 95.0%
Intercept 528.2841857 68.4311 7.719944 0.082008 -341.2153108 1397.783682 -341.215 1397.784
Market Capitalization 0.367026089 0.2131 1.722189 0.33491 -2.340870281 3.074922459 -2.34087 3.074922
Value Traded -2.065363429 3.0534 -0.67641 0.621389 -40.86251905 36.73179219 -40.8625 36.73179
Turnover (%) 25.89196806 12.1480 2.131373 0.279279 -128.4633169 180.247253 -128.463 180.2473
Volatility -0.27687321 0.1470 -1.88389 0.310667 -2.144287245 1.590540824 -2.14429 1.590541
Size of Primary Market -2.467382414 2.3927 -1.03122 0.490216 -32.8692717 27.93450687 -32.8693 27.93451
NEPSE Index -0.210385272 0.0767 -2.74396 0.222484 -1.184597045 0.763826502 -1.1846 0.763827
APPENDIX – VI
Data for calculation of Multiple Regression between Saving with Stock Market Variables
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.99001334
R Square 0.980126414
Adjusted R Square 0.860884897
Standard Error 4.272028425
Observations 8
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 6 900.0655092 150.0109 8.219674 0.260844514
Residual 1 18.25022686 18.25023
Total 7 918.3157361
Lower Upper
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% 95.0% 95.0%
Intercept 155.422193 28.75313941 5.405399 0.116458 -209.9210831 520.7654692 -209.921 520.7655
Market Capitalization -0.2031 0.0895 -2.26826 0.264345 -1.340908949 0.93468002 -1.34091 0.93468
Value Traded 3.5249 1.2830 2.74746 0.222224 -12.77675095 19.82655703 -12.7768 19.82656
Turnover (%) -13.7270 5.1043 -2.68929 0.226638 -78.58342584 51.12950839 -78.5834 51.12951
Volatility -0.1980 0.0618 -3.20682 0.192437 -0.982673573 0.586613503 -0.98267 0.586614
Size of Primary Market 1.5413 1.0053 1.533114 0.367945 -11.23284635 14.31547397 -11.2328 14.31547
NEPSE Index -0.0212 0.0322 -0.65856 0.629251 -0.430557054 0.38812478 -0.43056 0.388125
APPENDIX – VII
Data for calculation of Multiple Regression between Investment with Stock Market Variables
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.98575348
R Square 0.972
Adjusted R Square 0.801969466
Standard Error 6.644183744
Observations 8
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 6 1516.302278 252.717 5.724681 0.309471127
Residual 1 44.14517763 44.14518
Total 7 1560.447456
Lower Upper
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% 95.0% 95.0%
Intercept 171.451 44.719 3.833964 0.162429 -396.7583719 739.6609656 -396.758 739.661
Market Capitalization -0.111 0.139 -0.7965 0.571806 -1.880513147 1.658656009 -1.88051 1.658656
Value Traded 2.089 1.995 1.046681 0.485483 -23.26505847 27.4420875 -23.2651 27.44209
Turnover (%) 15.061 7.939 1.897143 0.308823 -85.80901546 115.9304121 -85.809 115.9304
Volatility 0.125 0.096 1.304436 0.416381 -1.095055865 1.345618831 -1.09506 1.345619
Size of Primary Market 0.578 1.564 0.36956 0.774641 -19.28950491 20.44518731 -19.2895 20.44519
NEPSE Index -0.183 0.050 -3.65611 0.169968 -0.81982568 0.453450616 -0.81983 0.453451
APPENDIX – VIII
Data for calculation of Multiple Regression between Capital Formation with Stock Market Variables
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.996465365
R Square 0.993
Adjusted R Square 0.950602566
Standard Error 7.888931646
Observations 8
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 6 8756.981876 1459.497 23.45129 0.15676923
Residual 1 62.23524251 62.23524
Total 7 8819.217118
Lower Upper
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% 95.0% 95.0%
Intercept 416.664 53.097 7.847232 0.080692 -257.9964673 1091.324205 -257.996 1091.324
Market Capitalization -0.485 0.165 -2.9315 0.209285 -2.585859716 1.616351515 -2.58586 1.616352
Value Traded 8.579 2.369 3.621223 0.171528 -21.52404695 38.68277814 -21.524 38.68278
Turnover (%) 11.880 9.426 1.260368 0.426991 -107.8869797 131.6471175 -107.887 131.6471
Volatility 0.129 0.114 1.1328 0.460412 -1.319780626 1.578139809 -1.31978 1.57814
Size of Primary Market 3.346 1.857 1.802477 0.322457 -20.24303301 26.93571504 -20.243 26.93572
NEPSE Index -0.412 0.059 -6.93091 0.091223 -1.168237267 0.343579692 -1.16824 0.34358