2017: AN ECONOMIC UPTURN IN THE FACE OF

POLITICAL RISK
JANUARY 2017

GLOBAL GROWTH
Forecast 2017 Emerging countries

In 2016 2.5% 2.7% 4.1% 1.6%

Advanced countries

4 MAJOR RISKS FOR 2017

Political risk
Inflation
Uncertainties
  around several ADVANCED COUNTRIES
decisive political deadlines in The
  end of low inflation which
Europe advanced countries have
benefited from
Impact of a shock
-0.7pt similar to Brexit Real
  wage increase will slow
on French and down in the eurozone and the
-0.5pt German GDP United States. It could even be
zero in the UK
Donald
  Trump’s economic and
foreign policies: what effect? Further
  hikes in rates by the
Fed planned in 2017

Political and
protectionism risk Banking risk
Political
  risk sharply rising in
Russia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia Very
  high and rising corporate
debt in China and Turkey
Security
  risk increasing in
India, Turkey and Russia (risk of Sharp
  increase in bad debts in
war and terrorism) Russia, China, Brazil and India

Protectionism
  risk Tightening
  of bank credit
The major exporters to the facilities in all emerging regions
United States likely to be EMERGING COUNTRIES except Central Europe
affected: Mexico, El Salvador,
Honduras, Vietnam, Thailand

BUT SOME POSITIVE POINTS ...

The recovery still
has good days Small
Expected
¤URO
ZONE

ahead if political countries are

Upgrades: cyclical rebound
risk does not in better shape
Bulgaria A4 in emerging
materialize than big ones
Serbia B countries:
Bosnia C exits from
Upgrade: Upgrades:
Estonia A2 recession in Russia
Spain A3 CENTRAL Ghana B
and Brazil
AFRICA Kenya A4
EUROPE