Thayer Consultancy Background Brief

ABN # 65 648 097 123

U.S. Defense Secretary
James Mattis Resigns
November 21, 2018

Bac Pham, Deutsche Agentur, Hanoi:

Q1. What are real reasons leading to the resignation of Secretary of Defense James.
Mattis? Did differences over Syria cause Mattis to resign or were there other factors?
ANSWER: Trump once described Secretary James Mattis was a “kind of democrat”
and rumours that Mattis would be departing were rife in recent months. Differences
between Mattis and Trump have emerged over the past two years including
treatment of LGBT members of the U.S. armed forces and the selection of the next
Chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff over the advice Mattis offered. But these
underlying factors were not the main reason for Mattis’ resignation
Secretary of Defense James Mattis tendered his resignation because President
Donald Trump point blank refused to accept his advice not to withdraw American
troops from Syria. This was a direct affront to the former Marine Corps four-star
general who was closely attached to the servicemen and servicewomen and their
mission. Mattis’ letter of resignation was a stinging rebuke to the president for his
failure to nurture alliances and partnerships.
Trump misled the American people in a Tweet saying Mattis had retired.
Q2.Will there be any impact or change in U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific region and
the South China Sea following Mattis’ resignation over fundamental disagreements
with President Trump?
ANSWER: There will be no immediate effect on U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific
region and U.S. operations will continue as normal until a new Defense Secretary is
nominated and confirmed by the Senate. The U.S. has already issued a National
Security Policy and a National Defense Policy. These policy documents will provide a
framework for U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific.
But Mattis’ resignation will have the indirect effect of depreciating the credibility of
U.S. military commitments to the region. In other words, U.S. policy towards its allies
can be changed without warning by President Trump at any time. We have already
seen Pyongyang. opportunistically take advantage of Trump’s strategic blunder by
demanding that the U.S. remove its missile threat against North Korea.
Q3. What will be the situation in the Middle East after Trump’s decision to withdraw
U.S. troops from Syria?
 2

ANSWER: We have already learned that the Turkish Defense Minister said his forces
would kill Syrian Kurds fighting ISIS the Islamic State and bury them in their
trenches. This report upset Mattis’ who views Trump’s withdrawal as abandonment
and betrayal of an ally.
Syria will be conceded to Russia and the Assad regime, Iran and the territory it
occupies, and Turkey who will likely move into Kurdish-controlled areas across
Turkey’s southern border. U.S. allies in the region, both formal and security partners,
will have to hedge their bets and plan for the future without an active American role.
This will be compounded by Trump’s order to commence planning for the withdrawal
of 7,000 U.S. forces to Afghanistan. Regional security experts expect ISIS and the
Taliban will be emboldened to continue their fight.
Q4. Who are the potential nominees to replace Secretary Mattis?
ANSWER: It is too early to speculate who the next Defense Secretary will be. There is
widespread discontent among Republican Senators about Trump’s order to withdraw
American troops from Syria. Trump’s nominee will face a difficult confirmation
process. Washington insiders suggest the president will select someone that has a
demonstrated track record of supporting Trump and his policies. This could mean a
more compliant Secretary of Defense and an unpredictable implementation of U.S.
national security and defense policies in the Indo-Pacific.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis Resigns,”
Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, November 21, 2018. All background briefs are
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
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