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ANSWER: We have already learned that the Turkish Defense Minister said his forces
would kill Syrian Kurds fighting ISIS the Islamic State and bury them in their
trenches. This report upset Mattis’ who views Trump’s withdrawal as abandonment
and betrayal of an ally.
Syria will be conceded to Russia and the Assad regime, Iran and the territory it
occupies, and Turkey who will likely move into Kurdish-controlled areas across
Turkey’s southern border. U.S. allies in the region, both formal and security partners,
will have to hedge their bets and plan for the future without an active American role.
This will be compounded by Trump’s order to commence planning for the withdrawal
of 7,000 U.S. forces to Afghanistan. Regional security experts expect ISIS and the
Taliban will be emboldened to continue their fight.
Q4. Who are the potential nominees to replace Secretary Mattis?
ANSWER: It is too early to speculate who the next Defense Secretary will be. There is
widespread discontent among Republican Senators about Trump’s order to withdraw
American troops from Syria. Trump’s nominee will face a difficult confirmation
process. Washington insiders suggest the president will select someone that has a
demonstrated track record of supporting Trump and his policies. This could mean a
more compliant Secretary of Defense and an unpredictable implementation of U.S.
national security and defense policies in the Indo-Pacific.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis Resigns,”
Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, November 21, 2018. All background briefs are
posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.