2 Classification and Comparison

Normative Approach of Research

•0 Emphasize what ought to happen, what should be
•1 Often include value judgments about optimal standards
(norms)
•2 Closely connected with political ideology/philosophy
•3 Are the basis or starting point for most questions in empirical
political science

Empirical Approach of Research

•4 Seek to discover, describe, and explain facts and factual
relationships
•5 Tries to remain value-free, eliminate biases
•6 Use concepts, models, and “the scientific method” to uncover
such relationships.

An Example
•7 An example: Democracy and comparative politics

•8 The normative perspective

•9 Is democracy desirable?

•10 What types of democracy are desirable?

•11 The empirical perspective

•12 How do we define democracy? (working definition)

•13 How do we measure the quality of democracy? (operationalization of the concept)

 •14 What are the causes and consequences of democracy (the correlates of inequality)?

•15 Are democracies more equal than other forms of government

•16 Does democracy lead to development?

Empirical Findings
•17 Are democracies more “equal” in terms of income distribution than
other forms of government?

•18 ANSWER: No

•19 EVIDENCE: Democratization in Eastern Europe

•20 Does democracy lead to development?

•21 ANSWER: Don’t know

•22 EVIDENCE: Przeworski (2000), Sirowy and Inkeles (1991)

The Goal of Comparative Politics

•23 Empirical approach
•24 To identify similarities and differences

•25 To identify and explain patterns of political phenomena and political

behavior

•26 To construct science-like generalizations as regard to political phenomena

•27 To predict the outcome of other cases not yet observed

Is Prediction Really Possible?

Multiple Forecasts of Oil Drilling: 1980–90

Outline
•28 Classification:
 •29 How to identify similarities and differences

•30 How to identify patterns of political phenomena and political behavior

•31 The logic of comparative analysis

•32 How to explain patterns of political phenomena and political behavior

•33 How to construct science-like generalizations as regard to political

phenomena

•34 Comparative methods

Classification
Classification of What?
•35 Typology of political regime
•36 Typology of government
•37 Typology of the state
•38 Typology of socio-economic systems
•39 Typology of political culture

Plato’s Typology of Political Regimes

Aristotle’s Typology of Political Regimes

Machiavelli and Montesquieu
Machiavelli

•40 Monarchies

•41 Despotic

•42 Non-despotic

•43 Republics
Montesquieu

•44 Despotism, or the lawless exercise of power by the single ruler

•45 Constitutional forms of government of the monarchy and the republic

Modern Classification of Political Regimes

After 1917:

•46 Capitalist vs. Socialist systems

The 1930s and 1940s:

•47 Fascism vs. Anti-Fascism (Both capitalist and socialist systems)

The 1950s and early 1960s:

•48 Democracy vs. Totalitarianism

The Mid-1960s:

•49 Challenges to the dichotomy of democracy vs. totalitarianism

After the late-1960s

•50 Democracy

•51 Authoritarianism

•52 Totalitarianism

’
The mid-1990s: Linz s new typology

•53 Democratic regime

•54 Authoritarian regime

•55 Totalitarian regime

•56 Post-totalitarian regime

•57 Sultanistic regime

Linz’s Typology
•58 Similarities and differences along four dimensions

•59 Linz and Stepan (1996), Table 3.1

Democratic Regime
•60 A form of government in which the right to make political decisions is exercised
directly by the whole body of citizens, acting under procedures of majority rule,
usually known as direct democracy.

•61 A form of government in which the citizens exercise the same right not in person
but through representatives chosen by and responsible to them, known as
representative democracy.

•62 Liberal constitutional, democracy refers to political systems in which there are
attempts to defend and increase civil liberties against the encroachment of
governments, institutions and powerful forces in society

Totalitarian Regime
•63 A form of government that theoretically permits no individual freedom and that
seeks to subordinate all aspects of the individual's life to the authority of the
government.

•64 Dominant leader using a mass party and ideology to mobilize people to achieve state objectives

•65 Control citizen and group behavior totally

•66 State attempts to control the whole of society

•67 Concentrates power in the hands of an individual or a group

•68 Use of secret police, concentration or labor camps, ideological control or indoctrination

•69 Examples: the former Soviet Union under Stalin, Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy and
Maoist China

Authoritarian Regime
•70 Authoritarian system refers to any political system that concentrates
power in the hands of a leader or a small elite that is not constitutionally
responsible to the body of the people.
•71 It also differs from totalitarianism, since authoritarian governments
usually have no highly developed guiding ideology, tolerate some
pluralism in social organization, lack the power to mobilize the entire
population in pursuit of national goals, and exercise that power within
relatively predictable limits.

Post-totalitarian Regime
•72 Post-totalitarianism refers to a type of non-democratic regime
before the transition to democracy.
•73 How is post-totalitarianism different from totalitarianism and
authoritarianism?
•74 Pluralism

•75 Ideology

•76 Mobilization

•77 Leadership

Sultanist Regimes
•78 This is a system based on personal rulership, but loyalty to the ruler is motivated
not by his embodying or articulating an ideology, nor by a unique personal mission,
nor by any charismatic qualities, but by a mixture of fear and rewards to his
collaborators.

•79 Characteristics

•80 The blurring of the line between regime and state

•81 Personalism

•82 Constitutional hypocrisy

•83 Narrow social bases of Sultanism

•84 Distorted capitalism

•85 Corruption at all levels of society

 Examples of Sultanism
•86 Rafael Leonidas Trujillo Molina in the Dominican Republic
•87 Jean-Claude Duvalier’s rule in Haiti
•88 Fulgencio Batista’s dictatorship in Cuba
•89 The rule of the Somoza family in Nicaragua
•90 The late stages of Pahlavi shahs’s reign in Tran,
•91 Ferinand Marcos’s presidency after his declaration of martial law in
1972

•92 Manuel Noriega’s dictatorship in Panama

•93 Many of personalistic dictatorship in sub-Saharan Africa

Typology of the State

•94 Developmental state vs. predatory state
•95 Corporatist state vs. liberal state
•96 Regulatory state vs. positive state
•97 Welfare state vs. liberal state
•98 Strong state vs. fragile (weak, dysfunctional, failed, failing)
states

State Capacity & Its Indicators

States in Asia
Fragile States in Asia
Typology of Government
Classification by the way of representation

•99 No Representation

•100 Functional representation: Corporatist system

•101 Territorial representation

•102 Majorotarian democracy

•103 Consensus democracy

Classification by the nature of central-local relations

•104 Unitary system

•105 Federal system

Classification by the nature of executive-legislature relations

•106 Parliamentary system

•107 Presidential systems

•108 Mixed systems

Typology of Socioeconomic Systems

•109 Classification by the relationship between the state and economy
•110 Capitalism

•111 Liberal capitalism

•112 Corporatist capitalism

•113 Welfare capitalism

•114 Socialism

•115 State socialism

•116 Market socialism

•117 Classification by the level of economic development

 •118 First world

•119 Second world

•120 Third world

The Logic of Comparative Analysis

What Constitutes a Scientific Study?
•121 Science is based on observable facts
•122 Science is a generalizing activity.
•123 It entails a search for regularities

•124 Science must identify and explain the regularities

•125 Scientific explanation must be logic
•126 Scientific findings can be cumulative
•127 Ideally, science can provide prediction

Basic Scientific Procedures

•128 Observation: Examine the data (variables)

•129 Identification of a problem (dependent variables)

•130 Gauging the causes (independent variables)

•131 Formulation of hypothesis

•132 Test the hypothesis

•133 Acceptance, revision, or rejection of the hypothesis

•134 Form theories

Variables
•135 An empirically observable characteristic of some phenomenon that can
take on more than one value

•136 A concept that contains a notion of degree or differentiation

•137 Types of variables?

•138 Geographic

•139 Demographic

•140 Level of economic development

•141 Institutions

•142 Public Policies

•143 Ideas (political ideology)

•144 Culture (political culture)

•145 Legitimacy

Dependent Variable
•146 What we are trying to explain—they depends on others for its
outcome)

•147 The item which we expect to see changed by other variables

•148 Dependent variable: the effect or outcome influenced or caused by
another variable(s)

•149 Examples?
•150 Fragile states

Independent Variables
•151 Factors that explain the outcome we observe—why does it happen?
•152 Those factors which you hypothesize cause the change in the
dependent variable
•153 Examples?
•154 Geographic factors (islands, artificial boundaries)

•155 Level of economic development

•156 Ethnic, and linguistic fractionalization

Hypothesis
•157 A statement of what we believe to be factual

•158 A statement proposing a relationship between two or more

variables

•159 A proposition intended to serve as a test of the theory

•160 Correlation or causality?

•161 Example

•162 Ethnic fractionalization is a cause of state fragility

How to Test a Hypothesis?

•163 Make observation about diverse cases
•164 Isolate the most probable cause
•165 Provide a theory to explain the relationship between
dependent and independent variables

Develop a Simple Causal Model

Theory
•166 A theory is something we use to explain and predict something
that occurs in a given environment

•167 A theory is a set of logically related propositions that identifies

patterns of what we think happens in the world

•168 Theories are frameworks that academics use to understand the

world or to understand relations between the dependent variable and
independent variables

•169 Theories do not have to be complicated!

Which States are Likely to Become Fragile?

Observations
•170 Large countries are not more likely to become fragile
•171 Poor countries tend to be fragile
•172 Multiethnic and multi-linguistic societies are likely to
become fragile
•173 Multi-religious societies are not more likely to become
fragile
•174 Electoral democracies could be fragile (Indonesia and the
Philippine)

Hypothesis and Theory

Methodology of Comparative Politics
Basic Methods of Establishing General
Empirical Propositions
•175 The experimental method
•176 The statistical method (many or large-n)
•177 The comparative method (few or small-n)
•178 The case study method (one or single case)

Experimental Method
•179 The archetype of scientific research is the experimental method, which involves
manipulation of variables

•180 Control all inputs except one in two "test groups" and see if there is a different outcome.

•181 If there is difference in outcome, assumed to result from this one input or variable.

•182 Difficult to do in political research

•183 We can experiment presidential system for 12 years and then try parliamentary system for
another 12 years

•184 Given that we cannot put countries in the lab and see how they behave, we rely on
indirect ways of collecting observations and controlling for external interferences.

•185 Case study

•186 Comparative study

•187 Quantitative study

Case Study
Case Study
•188 Investigator selects a single case and studies it intensively
•189 Case study method allows the development of expertise in
what one studies
•190 The study of a single case is considered comparative if it uses or
develops concepts applicable to other cases, and/or seeks to make larger
inferences.

•191 Ideal to examine “deviant cases” (black swan) to generate hypotheses, to

develop new classifications.
 Types of Case Studies
•192 Atheoretical
•193 Interpretive
•194 Theory-confirming
•195 Key deviant case studies: to falsify a hypothesis
•196 Detailed study to generate hypothesis

Advantages & Disadvantages

•197 Advantages

•198 Depth especially for understanding processes

•199 Grounded in historical developments and context

•200 Generates further hypotheses for research

•201 Analyzes deviant cases

•202 Disadvantages

•203 Demands extensive fieldwork/language skills/immersion

•204 Possibility of selection bias

•205 Inferences based upon one case are less secure.

•206 Limited generalizability and theory building

Comparative Methods
A Few Cases
•207 Two or more case studies put together
•208 Focus on a particular structure or behavior and put it in
comparative context
•209 Look for similarities and differences in different settings
•210 Compare in one setting but across time

•211 Area studies

•212 Compare regions within a single country

•213 Good for theory building

The Comparative Method
•214 John Stuart Mill
•215 The method of agreement: The method of agreement consists in making
paired comparisons in order to ascertain what causes changes we observe in the
world.

•216 The method of difference consists in a double application of the method of

agreement. This double application springs from the need to make counterfactual
comparisons when the explanatory variable is absent in the cases we chose to
compare.

Causes of Revolution
•217 "Revolution is caused by the combination of three factors: 1.
High income inequality, 2. conflict within the governing group, 3.
defeat in war.“

•218 Whenever and wherever "1", "2", and "3" are present
revolution will occur-- a comparative (general) statement.

Method of Agreement
Method of Difference

Two Approaches of Comparison

•219 Most similar systems design (MSSD):
•220 Focuses on differences within a group of cases (region/area)

•221 Compares like-with-like to ‘control’ for shared factors such as culture, history, social or
economic structure

•222 Seeks to identify key features that are different among similar
countries, which account for the observed political outcome.

•223 Most different systems design (MDSD):

•224 Focuses on similarities in outcome among cases that differ from each other in most
aspects (culture, history, social or economic structure)

•225 Seek to identify key features that are similar among different countries, which account for
the observed political outcome.

An Example
•226 In Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation,
Linz & Stepan use MSSD to examine democratic consolidation
within regions (South America, Southern Europe, and Eastern
Europe), and then use MDSD to compare democratic
consolidation across regions.

Advantages & Disadvantages of Comparative Method

•227 Advantages
•228 Combines both depth and breadth

•229 Identifies variations within culturally-similar regional area or similarities

across culturally different regional area

•230 Builds middle-level theories

•231 Disadvantages
•232 Higher demands for contextual fieldwork and language skills
 •233 Too many independent variables and too few nations

•234 Limited generalizations outside of area/region

Quantitative Method
Why Quantitative Method?
•235 The comparative method is ill prepared to deal with a large number of
cases and to tackle the issue of plural or conjunctural causation.

•236 Moreover, there are many instances where the information we

collected is quantitative, not qualitative.

•237 The majority of studies that compare many countries use quantitative
methods.
methods

•238 Because of some of these and other good reasons, the statistical
method is also used in comparative politics.

Feature of Quantitative Method

•239 “Variable-oriented”: examine the relationship between
variables at a global level of analysis.
•240 The more the cases, the stronger the inferences (the more
“experimental”)
•241 Helps to identify “deviant” cases.
•242 The qualitative study of many cases is difficult
•243 Data requirement

•244 Statistical method

An Example
•245 The higher the level of economic development, the greater the
likelihood of democratic development
 •246 How to measure democracy?

•247 What are the indicators of economic development?

•248 Need to make concepts into measurable “variables”

•249 Collect information on a number of variables related to those factors for

100 or more cases

•250 Use multivariate regression to see which factors explain most of the
variation in your dependent variable, the level of democracy.

•251 Look for statistical relationships among the variables that support or
challenge your assumption about the relationship among them.

A Research Design I
•252 Question:
•253 What are the electoral institutions that have contributed to the
advancement of women in politics the most?

•254 Task: Compare numbers: the relative number of women to men in

political assemblies around the world.

•255 Data collection:

•256 Collection of information about the proportion of women in parliaments and congresses
around the world.

•257 Tested theory:

•258 A prominent theory in the field was that the electoral institution that have a large effect
on the proportion of women in parliaments was the electoral formula: how votes are translated into
seats.

A Research Design II
•259 Procedure:
•260 Sort out countries depending on their electoral formula:

•261 Either plurality or proportional representation

 •262 Then compared the mean value of the proportion of women in each group.

•263 Finding:
•264 The mean of proportions in countries with plurality is 11.92% and in PR
or semi-PR is 18.93%.

•265 Both values are statistically significant.

A Research Design III

•266 Complication
•267 The value of the proportion of women in all countries that have quotas
was 2 standards deviations above the mean!

•268 Exclude the countries with quotas from the sample and compared the
mean of their proportions again:

•269 New finding:

•270 The difference of their values were not statistically significant anymore!

Source: Gomez Albarello, Juan Gabriel. 2002. “What’s Wrong with This Picture”, available at http://artsci.wustl.edu/
%7Ejggomeza/papers/picture.pdf

Advantages & Disadvantages of Quantitative Method

•271 Advantages
•272 Comprehensive generalizations

•273 Identifies outliers and deviant cases

•274 Build and test general theories

•275 Disadvantages?
•276 Limited availability of data

•277 Valid cross-cultural measures

•278 Lack of insights into ‘black-box’ policy processes

 •279 Skills needed to analyze data

•280 Too abstract and too far removed from context and processes to facilitate
policy interventions

What would You Try?

•281 Qualitative or quantitative? Why?
•282 In what circumstances would you choose many cases, a few
cases, or single case studies?

•283 Why?

Common Problems
What would you do to overcome these difficulties?

•284 Too many variables, too few countries

•285 Increase units of observation? Eg parties, states, time periods

•286 Equivalence across cultures/societies

•287 Universal or relative concepts

•288 Democracy? Gender equality?

•289 Functionally-equivalent but different indicators

•290 Income quintiles

•291 Selection bias

•292 Few countries/cases may confirm propositions but limited inferences

elsewhere

Common Problems
•293 Value bias

•294 Can “IS” and “OUGHT” questions be separated?

 •295 Empirical and evaluative statements

•296 Explicit not implicit assumptions

•297 Spuriousness

•298 Omitted variables

•299 Correlation of X>Y, but Z leads to both X and Y

•300 Ecological fallacy

•301 Multilevel analysis from aggregate to individual (statistical)

•302 Average income in HK is higher than that in the mainland

•303 Individualist fallacy

•304 From individual to aggregate (one or few cases)

What is Scientific about Political Science?

•305 Subject matter's behavior is completely determined – not the
case

•306 Subject matter's behavior is clearly and completely understood

– not the case
•307 Subject can be summarized in terms of general laws of
behavior – not the case

•308 Political Science is scientific in the sense that the study of the
subject is pursued in a scientific manner, with reliance on evidence,
testing of hypotheses

Is it Possible to Study Politics Scientifically?

•309 Complexity of individual human beings
•310 Cultural diversity: Too different to be generalized
•311 Ability of humans to learn and change behavior
•312 Limited capacity for controlled experiment
•313 Difficulties in quantifying and measuring social phenomena
•314 Impact of personal and social values on research
•315 So it is impossible to develop a real "political science,” but we should
try to study politics in a scientific way